09-19-15 |
Ole Miss +7 v. Alabama |
Top |
43-37 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +7
The Key: Ole Miss went 9-4 last year and it would have been much better had injuries not struck them after a 7-0 start to the season. But Hugh Freeze has improved his team's record in each of his first three seasons in Oxford. Now he has his most talented team yet, and this is a veteran bunch with 16 returning starters. In fact, 19 of their starters this season are upperclassmen. Chad Kelly has been a big upgrade over Bo Wallace at quarterback to this point in leading the Rebels to a pair of impressive offensive showings to say the least. Ole Miss beat Tennessee-Martin 76-3 and Fresno State 73-21 in its first two contests. Alabama struggles with up-tempo, spread offenses like this one. I clearly give the edge to Ole Miss on offense. Alabama has questions at QB with Jake Coker, who is no more than a game manager. Ole Miss has a better defense than it gets credit for after giving up 16 points per game last year. I would actually make Ole Miss a favorite on a neutral field, and I believe Alabama's home field is getting too much credit here. Ole Miss beat Alabama last year with a worse team than it has this season. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years. Take Ole Miss.
|
09-19-15 |
California v. Texas UNDER 58 |
|
45-44 |
Loss |
-108 |
26 h 30 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *TOTAL* Annihilator on California/Texas UNDER 58
The Key: This line is jacked up because the perception is that Cal has an elite offense and no defense based off what it has done over the past two seasons. It's also way too high because Texas beat Rice 42-28 last week in a high-scoring affair. Well, Cal does have an elite offense, but its defense is vastly improved this season. There's no way Rice and Texas should have combined for 70 points when you look at the box score. Texas actually had just 277 total yards yet managed to score 42 points. It had two non-offensive touchdowns. The fact that Texas could only put up 277 yards on Rice just shows how poor its offense really is. In their last three games, Texas has now managed just 277 yards against Rice, 163 yards against Notre Dame, and 59 yards against Arkansas (in last year's bowl game). That's an average of just 166.3 yards per game. The Longhorns are clearly in shambles offensively right now, and Cal's improved defense will shut them down. I think Texas is good enough defensively to hold Cal to under 30 points in this one as well. Texas is 11-2 as an underdog over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Golden Bears last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The UNDER is 12-4 in Longhorns last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 11-4 in Longhorns last 15 home games. Take the UNDER.
|
09-19-15 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11 |
|
35-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday Big Chalk *BEATDOWN* on Arkansas -11
The Key: The public perception is way down on Arkansas right now after it lost to Toledo last week. Well, there's no way in hell the Razorbacks should have lost when you look at the box score. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and racked up 515 yards of offense, yet they only managed to score 12 points, which just doesn't add up. When you put up 500-plus yards of offense, it usually leads to 30-plus points. I still believe the Razorbacks are a very good team, and they'll be anxious to take out their frustration on Texas Tech this week. Arkansas beat Texas Tech 49-28 last year, and a similar beat down is in store. While the Red Raiders have a good offense, their defense remains atrocious. They only beat Sam Houston State 59-45 in their opener and gave up 637 yards of offense. That's right, they gave up 637 yards to SAM HOUSTON STATE and were outgained by 26 yards in the game. Arkansas is going to score and score at will against this soft Texas Tech defense, just as it did last year. The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12 opponents, which also includes a 31-7 win over Texas in their bowl game last year as they held the Longhorns to 59 total yards. Take Arkansas.
|
09-19-15 |
Nebraska v. Miami (Fla) -3 |
|
33-36 |
Push |
0 |
22 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* Nebraska/Miami ABC *CA$H COW* on Miami -3
The Key: Miami has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over Bethune-Cookman (45-0) and Florida Atlantic (44-20). I think this team is going to be better than most think, and that is already starting to show up against the oddsmakers. Nebraska is in a bit of a rebuilding phase with first-year head coach Mike Riley, and that was evident in a 33-28 home loss to BYU. Miami wants revenge from a 31-41 loss at Miami last year in which the Hurricanes racked up 435 yards of offense. Brad Kaaya was a freshman last year, and he lit up Nebraska for 359 yards and three touchdowns. But he did throw two interceptions that cost his team. Now a sophomore, Kaaya is primed for a big season and a big game Saturday. He won't make the same mistakes as last year, and he should light up this Nebraska defense again at home this time around. BYU racked up 511 total yards on Nebraska and 379 through the air. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 20 points or more. Take Miami.
|
09-19-15 |
Los Angeles Angels - Game #1 +107 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #1 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
107 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Angels +107 (Game 1)
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels are just 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League. They actually trail the Minnesota Twins, who are just 1.5 games back. This is obviously a huge series, and I'll back the better team with the better starter on the mound. The Twins have really choked here of late, losing three straight while giving up a combined 23 runs in the process. Andrew Heaney is having a fine season for Los Angeles, going 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 15 starts, and 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in six road starts. Kyle Gibson is having a solid season as well, but he's 0-2 with an 8.55 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in four lifetime starts against Los Angeles. He has given up 17 earned runs over 14 innings in his last three starts against the Angels. Los Angeles is 34-13 (+20.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 1-8 in Pelfreys last nine starts vs. American League West opponents. The Angels are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, and 5-0 in their last five visits to Minnesota. Take Los Angeles in Game 1.
|
09-19-15 |
South Florida +7 v. Maryland |
|
17-35 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 0 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *UPSET SPECIAL* on South Florida +7
The Key: Maryland surprised folks in the Big Ten last year by finishing 3rd in the stacked West Division. But this was a Maryland team that returned 16 starters last year with a ton of experience. Now Maryland has just 10 starters back and this is clearly a rebuilding year. That was evident in the Terrapins' 27-48 home loss to Bowling Green last week as 7-point favorites. They gave up a ridiculous 692 total yards to the Falcons and were actually outgained by 351 yards in the loss as their offense only managed 341. South Florida is a team on the rise entering Year 3 under Willie Taggart. He has done an excellent job in recruiting. After beating Florida A&M 51-3 in their opener, the Bulls hung tough with Florida State for four quarters on the road last week before eventually losing 14-34 as 28-point underdogs. This was a 7-7 game at the half and a 24-14 game in the 4th quarter. FSU is 31-1 over its past 32 games, so that was an impressive showing on the road by USF to say the least. I believe South Florida is actually the better team in this one and will win the game outright Saturday. USF is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off a game where it forced no turnovers. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. The Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take South Florida.
|
09-18-15 |
Florida State -7 v. Boston College |
Top |
14-0 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* FSU/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida State -7
The Key: Boston College is getting way too much love from the books here due to beating a pair of I-AA teams in Maine and Howard by a combined 100-3. When you consider the Eagles were 26-point favorites over Maine and 44-point favorites over Howard, it's easy to see how poor those two opponents really were. Now they take a big step up in competition against what I feel is the best team in the ACC in Florida State. The Seminoles have played two easy opponents too, but they've at least been FBS foes in Texas State and South Florida, and they've won a combined 93-30. South Florida is a better team than it gets credit for, too. Florida State has gone 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by at least two touchdowns. The Seminoles have been at least 14.5-point favorites in all five of those games, too. So now they are only 7-point favorites in 2015 and I believe there is some value here because of it. Take Florida State.
|
09-17-15 |
Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* DEN/KC Thursday Night *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42.5
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs finished 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense (17.6 PPG) last season despite playing most the year without linebacker Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry. Well, both are back this season and will help the Chiefs challenge for the league's top defense. Denver finished 3rd in the NFL in total defense last year and will once again be one of the league's top stop units in 2015 as almost everyone is back. Both defenses are off to resounding starts. The Chiefs held the Texans to 20 points in the opener, but 11 of those came in the 4th quarter when the came was already decided. The Broncos held the Ravens without an offensive touchdown in a 19-13 win in the opener. The only touchdown the Ravens scored came on an interception return. They held the Ravens to just 173 total yards in the win. Peyton Manning is on the decline and cannot get it done any more. He has failed to lead a touchdown drive in his past 21 drives dating back to the preseason. Alex Smith did not throw a TD pass to a wide receiver once last year, and he didn't in the opener against Houston, either. I look for this division rivalry game to be a defensive battle. The UNDER is 27-11 in Chiefs last 38 home games. The UNDER is 14-3 in Chiefs last 17 games in Week 2. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings. Take the UNDER.
|
09-17-15 |
Houston Astros +103 v. Texas Rangers |
|
2-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros +103
The Key: The Houston Astros are now 1.5 games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West standings after dropping each of the first three games of this series. They'll be hungry to avoid the sweep and avoid falling further behind with a win in Game 4 today. I like them to get the job done at a great price here as underdogs. Lance McCullers has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. McCullers is 5-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Colby Lewis is 15-8 in spite of a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts. Lewis has been the benefactor of good run support, but I don't expect that to happen today. Lewis gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Astros on August 3. Texas is 1-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Take Houston.
|
09-17-15 |
Clemson v. Louisville +6 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* Clemson/Louisville ACC *CA$H COW* on Louisville +6
The Key: Louisville is 0-2 and undervalued because of it. It has played a brutal schedule thus far with Houston and Auburn, and it played both of them tough, losing by a combined 10 points. The Cardinals are still one of the most talented teams in the ACC, and their goals are still right in front of them, which is winning the conference. They'll come back with an inspired effort tonight against Clemson to try and get their first win of the season. They'll also be looking to revenge last year's 17-23 loss at Clemson. The Tigers only managed 226 yards of offense in that game, but they score on an punt return touchdown and a fumble return TD. Clemson did not score one offensive touchdown in that game. Clemson has beaten Wofford and Appalachian State, which isn't impressive at all. The Tigers went 2-3 on the road last season with their only wins coming against Boston College (17-13) and Wake Forest (34-20). This is going to be a hostile Thursday night atmosphere in Louisville, which is going to really favor the home team. The Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. Take Louisville.
|
09-16-15 |
Houston Astros -147 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
3-14 |
Loss |
-147 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros -147
The Key: The Texas Rangers are in a letdown spot here. They just overtook the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West with another win behind some magic late last night. Sure, they want to extend the lead, but they will be feeling a sense of accomplishment and will let down today. I like the Astros to come back hungry today, and I also like the fact that they have a massive advantage on the mound. Dallas Keuchel is 17-7 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. Keuchel is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts versus Texas, including 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against the Rangers in 2015. Martin Perez is probably the worst starter on Texas' staff, going 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 starts this year. The Astros are 9-1 in Keuchel's last 10 starts during game 3 of a series. Houston is 25-9 in Keuchel's last 34 starts overall. Take Houston.
|
09-15-15 |
Boston Red Sox +129 v. Baltimore Orioles |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox +129
The Key: The Boston Red Sox have quietly been playing some of their best ball of the season down the stretch. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and are playing an Orioles team that is also hot, having won five of their last six. But the fact of the matter is that neither team has much to play for, so at least they are playing with pride when they don't have to. The reason I'm backing the Red Sox today is because of the advantage they have on the mound. Joe Kelly has been on fire, going 8-0 with a 2.59 ERA during his eight-game winning streak. He has limited opponents to two runs or less in the past seven. Ubaldo Jimenez is having a decent season at 11-9 with a 4.22 ERA in 28 starts, but this is not a team he has success again. In fact, Jimenez is 2-4 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.869 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Boston. Kelly is 14-5 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.
|
09-14-15 |
Minnesota Vikings -2 v. San Francisco 49ers |
Top |
3-20 |
Loss |
-104 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
7* Vikings/49ers Monday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2
The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are legitimate contenders to win the NFC North this season. Their defense was the most improved in the league last year in allowing only 21.4 points per game after giving up 30 points per game the year before Mike Zimmer took over. Zimmer has even more talent on defense this season. But the key is getting Adrian Peterson back healthy after he missed all but one game last year. Teddy Bridgewater went 5-4 over his final nine starts last season and should only be better in his sophomore campaign, especially now that the running game will open up more passing lanes. The 49ers lost more this offseason than any team in the NFL. They were fortunate just to go 8-8 last year, and now I view this is a 6-10 team at best. Their offense is atrocious with a terrible QB in Colin Kaepernick, and now he has a worse offensive line to work with. The defense will be around league average, but it will certainly take a step back with some massive losses on this side of the ball. There's a reason this line has moved so much in the Vikings' favor since it first came out. I believe the betting public is right in doing so, and the Vikings will prove that tonight. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS when the total is 35.5 to 42 points over the last two years. Take Minnesota.
|
09-14-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -137 |
|
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -137
The Key: The Cleveland Indians remain alive for the final wild card spot in the American League. They are 4.5 games back and need a big finish. They have made a nice surge here of late and will be motivated to get back to .500 on the season tonight. The Royals already have the AL Central wrapped up and have struggled to stay motivated because of it. They have lost seven of their last nine games overall coming in. Edinson Volquez is 13-7 with a 3.54 ERA on the season, and 2-0 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts. But he's 2-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 2.378 WHIP in five lifetime starts versus Cleveland. Carlos Carrasco is 12-10 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 26 starts this year. Carrasco is 4-3 with a 4.20 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Kansas City, and he's gone 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 during game 1 of a series. Take Cleveland.
|
09-13-15 |
NY Giants +6.5 v. Dallas Cowboys |
|
26-27 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 14 m |
Show
|
6* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on New York +6.5
The Key: Four of the last five meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less. New York has lost four straight to Dallas, but three of those losses were by 5 points or less. I'll back the Giants as underdogs in this one as they'll be motivated to put an end to this losing streak to division rival Dallas. Take New York.
|
09-13-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 48 |
|
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW on Ravens/Broncos UNDER 48
The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have one of the bes defenses in the NFL. They only gave up 18.9 points per game last year. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, too. They finished 3rd in the league in total defense last year. Both teams have new offensive coordinators so I look for them to start slow this year as the defenses carry the weight in the opener. Take the UNDER.
|
09-13-15 |
Houston Astros v. Los Angeles Angels +102 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Sunday Afternoon *Mound Mismatch* on Los Angeles Angels +102
The Key: The Angels are trying to chase down the Rangers for the final wild card spot in the AL. They even have a shot at catching the Astros for the AL West lead, too, as they are just 3.5 games back. Getting them as home underdogs give the situation is a gift from the books. That's especially the case when you consider Andrew Heaney is 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 14 starts this year. I give him the edge over Mike Fiers, who is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. Fiers is overvalued right now because he recently pitched a no-hitter. Houston is 4-18 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Take Los Angeles.
|
09-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins -3
The Key: The Miami Dolphins will challenge the New England Patriots for AFC East supremacy this season. They are in the second year of Bill Lazor's offensive system, and he was with the Eagles before coming over to Miami. Ryan Tannehill and company will be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. But the defense is the reason Miam is legit this year. They just added Ndamukong Suh for over $100 million, and he'll help a D that finished 14th in the league in total defense last year. Washington is an absolute mess right now with Robert Griffin III. The Redskins start a turnover-prone QB in Kirk Cousins, and their defense is horrible. I'll lay the points with the Dolphins in the opener. Take Washington.
|
09-12-15 |
LSU -3.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
21-19 |
Loss |
-115 |
24 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* LSU/Mississippi State ESPN Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on LSU -3.5
The Key: LSU returned its most starters (15) since 2005. Last year was a down year because the Tigers lost so much offensive talent with a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and two 1,000-yard receivers departing. But they are now loaded with talent and sophomores Brandon Harris and Leonard Fournette are going to build off of promising freshmen campaigns last year where they were forced into action. Mississippi State returns the fewest starters (7) in the SEC. It still has Dak Prescott around, but he's not going to be able to carry this young team. That was evident in an ugly 34-16 win over Southern Miss, which had gone 4-32 over the previous three seasons. The Bulldogs only led that game 14-10 at halftime and only outgained the Golden Eagles 442-413 for the game. LSU has won 10 of its last 11 road meetings with Mississippi State with its last coming by a final of 59-26 in 2013. The Bulldogs' win over the Tigers last year was their first since 1999. So revenge will be in the minds of these Tigers players as well. Les Miles is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of LSU. Take LSU.
|
09-12-15 |
Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 |
Top |
28-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Oregon/MSU NCAAF Top 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3.5
The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are out for revenge from their 46-27 loss to the Oregon Ducks last year. They were in control of that game with a 27-18 lead, but gave up the final 28 points to lose in a game that was much closer than the final would indicate. It's tough to win in Eugene, but it's equally tough to win in East Lansing. The Spartans are the most veteran team in the Big Ten with almost exclusively junior and senior starters. They returned 14 starters and 51 lettermen this year. The Spartans have gone at least 6-1 at home four of the past five years while going unbeaten in East Lansing on three occasions. The home team is 5-0 in the five all-time meetings in this series. Oregon's defense gave up 42 points and 549 total yards to Eastern Washington last week. Oregon does have a good offense again, but Mark Dantonio has now seen it once and will be much better suited to stop it the second time around. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the past 3 seasons. Take Michigan State.
|
09-12-15 |
Arizona v. Nevada +11 |
|
44-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
21 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Nevada +11
The Key: Nevada is extremely hungry for revenge in this game against Arizona. It has lost two of the past three years to the Wildcats by a combined eight points. Nevada lost in its bowl game at the conclusion of the 2012 season to Arizona by a final of 48-49. Then, last year, the Wolf Pack lost 28-35 on the road to the Wildcats as 20-point underdogs. They were only outgained 507-429 for the game as it was very competitive. Arizona was one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into 2015 because it managed to win the Pac-12 South and go 10-3 despite actually getting outgained in Pac-12 play on the season. The Wildcats are missing their best player in LB Scooby Wright, who will miss at least three weeks with a knee injury. After watching Arizona in its opener against UTSA, it's clear that this team needs to be on upset alert against a hungry Nevada bunch. Arizona only beat UTSA 42-32 despite being 32.5-point favorites. It was actually outgained by 133 total yards by UTSA and should have lost, too. The Wildcats benefited from two defensive touchdowns, which isn't going to happen again. UTSA racked up 525 total yards on this Arizona defense. Keep in mind that this was a UTSA team that returned only 6 starters from last year and was very inexperienced. Nevada beat UC Davis 31-17, which wasn't impressive either, but this team is good enough to hang around with Arizona for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12. The Wolf Pack are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Ariiona is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21. Take Nevada.
|
09-12-15 |
Boston Red Sox -104 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
|
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
6* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Boston Red Sox -104
The Key: This is a very good price to get the Red Sox at considering their massive advantage on the mound today. Plus, the Red Sox have won five of their last seven and have not packed it in. Rock Porcello has been dominant in his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.940 WHIP while striking out 22 batters in 22 1/3 innings. Two of those starts came against the Blue Jays and Yankees, so it's not like he has faced weak competition. Matt Moore has been awful since returning from injury, going 1-3 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in seven starts for the Rays. Moore is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Boston. He has allowed 13 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Porcello is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay. He has allowed only 3 earned runs over 22 innings in his last three starts against the Rays. The Red Sox are 20-7 (+13.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. Take Boston.
|
09-12-15 |
Hawaii +41.5 v. Ohio State |
|
0-38 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF DOG OF THE DAY on Hawaii +41.5
The Key: The Hawaii Warriors are showing excellent value as 41.5-point underdogs to the Ohio State Buckeyes. This is the best team that Norm Chow had had yet at Hawaii. He has 14 starters back and the addition of USC transfer Max Wittek, who was one of the highest-rated QB's in the country coming out of high school. Wittek is looking to prove to NFL scouts that he can make it at the next level in his senior year. He's off to a good start with three touchdowns passes in the opener to lead the Warriors to a 28-20 victory over an improved Colorado team. I just think the Buckeyes are going to be lacking motivation here after making a statement with their 42-24 win against Virginia Tech Monday night to get revenge on the Hokies from last year. But that means the Buckeyes are now working on a short week. Meanwhile, Hawaii has four more days to prepare for this game than Ohio State does since it last played on Friday against the Buffaloes. That's a big advantage and one that cannot be overlooked. All nine of Hawaii's losses last season came by 27 points or fewer, including six by 10 points or less. The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take Hawaii.
|
09-12-15 |
Miami (OH) +31.5 v. Wisconsin |
|
0-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF 12:00 EST *CA$H COW* on Miami Ohio +31.5
The Key: Miami Ohio has not been good over the past two years. Chuck Martin took over an 0-12 team and only improved them by two wins to 2-10. But they were far more competitive under Martin. They did not lose by more than 31 points all season, and all six of their MAC losses came by 10 points or less. They went 5-1 ATS on the road last season with five of their losses coming by 10 points or less, and all six by 24 or fewer. Miami beat Presbyterian 26-7 in the opener behind a solid defensive effort. It allowed just 163 passing yards and 3.8 per carry on the ground. Eight starters are back on this underrated defense. Wisconsin was outgained 268-502 by Alabama in its 35-17 loss in the opener. The Badgers could be in a tough spot mentally off such a big game and not be able to bring the kind of focus it takes to put away a scrappy team like Miami Ohio. Wisconsin has won 19 straight home openers by an average of 21 points per game, but that's still 10.5 points less than this spread. The Badgers have also won their last 32 non-conference home games by an average of 25, which is still 6.5 points less than this spread. Wisconsin is dealing with some injuries right now to four starters in LB Leon Jacobs, SS Michael Caputo, RB Corey Clement and G Ray Ball, who are all questionable to play this week. Take Miami.
|
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah -12 |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Utah State/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -12
The Key: The Utah Utes went 9-4 last season and opened the 2015 campaign with a convincing 24-17 win over the Michigan Wolverines where they allowed a garbage touchdown late to make the score closer than it was. The Utes are solid in all areas with 14 returning starters this year. I love their defense and feel like they will shut down this weak Utah State offense. Utah State is in big trouble in this game after what it showed against lowly Southern Utah in the opener as a 31-point favorite. The Aggies scored a punt return touchdown late in the fourth quarter to escape with a 12-9 victory. Their offense only gained 250 total yards in the win. Chuckie Keaton did not play well as he completed only 16 of 33 passes for 110 yards with an interception. If that's all the Aggies could do offensively against Southern Utah, they have no chance of having success against this Utes defense. That's especially the case with WR Hunter Sharp out, who had 939 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season. Utah beat Colorado State by 35 points in the bowl game last year, another team from the Mountain West that was better than this Utah State team. The Utes are 13-1 in their last 14 showdowns with Utah State. Utah is 8-0 ATS in non-conference play over the last 3 years. Take Utah.
|
09-11-15 |
G1 Chicago Cubs -1.5 v. G1 Philadelphia Phillies |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
6* National League *Mound Mismatch* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-145)
The Key: The Chicago Cubs have a decisive edge on the mound tonight, which is why I'm willing to lay juice even on the -1.5 run line. Jake Arrieta is making a strong case for the NL Cy Young award down the stretch and is motivated by it. He has gone 29 straight innings without allowing an earned run. He is now 18-6 with a 2.03 ERA on the season. He'll be up against a Phillies team that has lost six of seven coming in with all six losses by 2 runs or more. Arrieta will be opposed by Adam Morgan, who is 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 starts, and 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three. Arrieta is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia while allowing 4 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. Arrieta is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Cubs are winning by an average of 4.2 runs per game in this spot. Take Chicago on the Run Line.
|
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
21-28 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* Steelers/Patriots Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +7
The Key: The New England Patriots come into the 2015 season overvalued after winning the Super Bowl last year. Tom Brady did not play well in the preseason, and while he's a great quarterback, I don't believe he's worth the amount of points the oddsmakers have assigned to him. The Patriots were going to be roughly 2.5-point favorites when Brady was suspended, and now they're 7-point favorites now that he's going to play. Pittsburgh does have some key guys out on offense in Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey, which is being overblown here. The Patriots lost their top two corners on defense, including Darrelle Revis. The Steelers put up over 411 yards per game on offense last year behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger, who led the league in passing. The Patriots are missing starting C Bryan Stork, their second-leading receiver in Brandon LaFell, and their leading rusher down the stretch last year in LeGarrette Blount. So, they are essentially missing the exact same pieces as the Steelers. Sure, the Steelers' pieces that they are missing are slightly better, but it's not as lopsided as most think. Take Pittsburgh.
|
09-10-15 |
Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky |
|
38-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
6* LA Tech/WKU Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Louisiana Tech PK
The Key: Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 at home last year. It outgained the Hilltoppers by 220 total yards in the win. I know Cody Sokol was the starting QB for that game and he threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns in the win, but the Bulldogs arguably upgraded their QB position this season with Jeff Driskel. He was the top QB recruit coming out of high school, and while it didn't work out for him at Florida, he is primed for a big season against Conference USA opponents. He is off to a terrific start by going 12 for 15 for 274 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 62-15 beat down of Southern in their opener. Driskel has the luxury of having back each of the top 3 receivers from last year and leading rusher Kenneth Dixon, who accounted for 171 total yards against Southern. Western Kentucky should have lost to Vanderbilt in its opener. It was outgained by 147 yards by the Commodores but benefited from a +3 turnover differential. Its offense only managed 246 total yards. QB Brandon Doughty struggled against LA Tech last year, too, going 14 for 35 for 144 yards with one touchdown and a whopping four picks. I see no way the Hilltoppers are competitive in this rematch a year later even though they have the home-field advantage. WKU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 after forcing 3 or more turnovers in its previous game. LA Tech is 9-0 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days of rest over the last two seasons. Take Louisiana Tech.
|
09-09-15 |
Houston Astros -147 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
11-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
7* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Astros -147
The Key: The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the Oakland A's and will be hungry for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep. The Astros' lead in the AL West has been cut to one game by the Texas Rangers, so they realize they cannot afford to continue losing to poor teams like the A's. Collin McHugh takes the mound today looking to stop the bleeding. McHugh is a 15-game winner this season with a 3.54 ERA and 1.260 WHIP. He has really turned it on down the stretch, going 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Aaron Brooks, who is 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in five starts and three relief outings. Brooks is 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 10 innings. McHugh is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Oakland. The A's are 0-7 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after shutting out a division rival this season. The Astros are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Astros are 12-2 in McHugh's last 14 starts versus AL West foes. Take Houston.
|
09-08-15 |
Texas Rangers -121 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Tuesday Night *BAILOUT* on Texas Rangers -121
The Key: The Texas Rangers lead the race for the final wild card spot in the American League. They are also just two games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West. The Seattle Mariners are seven games back in the wild card with little to no chance at this point despite having won five of six coming in. It's too little too late for them. I'll back the Rangers again tonight with ace Cole Hamels on the mound. The left-hander has gone 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA over his last four starts and is finding a comfort zone in Texas now that these games matter. He'll be opposed by Taijuan Walker, who is 10-7 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts this season. Hamels is 10-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite. Texas is 4-0 in Hamels' last four starts. Take this 22-1 angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Texas.
|
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14 |
Top |
42-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
100 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday *REMATCH* on Virginia Tech +14
The Key: Virginia Tech beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road last season, and now it's a 14-point home underdog in the rematch? Ohio State cannot possibly be better than it was last season, and it could suffer a hangover from winning the national title as soon as Week 1. Virginia Tech is the type of team that can upset Ohio State again, let alone stay within two touchdowns. The Hokies return 16 starters and 58 lettermen. Their defense is going to be one of the best in the country with eight starters back from a unit that gave up 20.2 points per game last season. Ohio State is without four of its better players due to suspension to boot. Defensive end Joey Bosa is a potential No. 1 pick in next year's draft, and he's out. Also gone are Jalin Marshall, Corey Smith and Dontre Wilson. All three of these guys had at least 20 receptions for the Buckeyes last season in playing a big role in the offense. Frank Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech. This is his 29th season, so the Hokies are not dogs in Lane Stadium too often. There's no way they should be catching 14 points in the rematch. Take Virginia Tech.
|
09-07-15 |
Texas Rangers -113 v. Seattle Mariners |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -113
The Key: The Texas Rangers lead the race for the final wild card spot in the American League. They are also just three games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West. The Seattle Mariners are six games back in the wild card with little to no chance at this point despite having won five straight coming in. It's too little too late for them. I'll back the Rangers and the better starter tonight in Yovani Gallardo, who is 11-9 with a 3.27 ERA in 28 starts, and 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last three. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Seattle in 2015. Roenis Elias is 4-7 with a 4.35 ERA in 15 starts this season. Elias is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts as well. Texas is 9-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last eight games as a favorite. The Mariners are 1-8 in Elias' last 9 home starts. Take Texas.
|
09-06-15 |
Purdue +7.5 v. Marshall |
|
31-41 |
Loss |
-108 |
71 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* Purdue/Marshall NCAAF Sunday *CA$H COW* on Purdue +7.5
The Key: Darrell Hazell enters Year 3 at Purdue and I expect this team to be more competitive in 2015. It was only outscored by 7.9 points per game last year after getting outscored by 23.1 points per game in his first season in 2013. That was huge improvement, and now he has his best team yet with 15 starters returning. Marshall, meanwhile, is in a bit of a rebuilding phase entering 2015. It went 13-1 last season, but that was only because of playing such a soft schedule as it was favored by 7-plus points in all 14 games. Now it returns 11 starters and loses its best player in all-time leading passer, Rakeem Cato. Also gone is leading receiver Tommy Shulder, who had 92 receptions for 1,138 yards and nine touchdowns. I believe the Boilermakers are more than capable of pulling off the upset in this one and easily staying within the 7.5-point spread. Take Purdue.
|
09-06-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -1.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* NL Sunday Afternoon *Mound Mismatch* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-113)
The Key: The Washington Nationals are in must-win mode from here on out. They are 5 games behind the New York Mets for first place in the NL East with 27 games to play. They have won four in a row coming in while outscoring the opposition 32-8 in the process. Three of those victories came against the lowly Braves, who have clearly packed it in. Atlanta is 0-11 in its last 11 games overall while losing by at least two runs in all 11 games, making for a perfect 11-0 run line angle backing the Nationals. Manny Banuelos is 0-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts and has made just five starts on the season. Joe Ross has been unstoppable at home, going 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.823 WHIP in six home starts this year. Take Washington on the Run Line.
|
09-05-15 |
Arkansas State v. USC -27 |
|
6-55 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 49 m |
Show
|
6* Ark State/USC Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on USC -27
The Key: USC is a legitimate national title contender in 2015. It returns 14 starters and the sanctions that had it so short on depth last year are now gone. The Trojans won't be blowing leads late in games again this season with all of the talent they now have on board with more scholarship players. Cody Kessler is a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 39 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes last year. Arkansas State does have a good offense, but I don't believe the Red Wolves will be able to move the football much on this elite USC defense. They only scored 19 points against Tennessee and 20 points against Miami on the road last year. Arkansas State is not going to be able to do anything to stop USC. The Red Wolves gave up 30.5 points per game last season, including 63 to Toledo, 55 to Lafayette, 45 to Texas State and 37 to Appalachian State. USC opened last season with a 52-13 win over Fresno State. I foresee a similar result in its home opener in 2015. Take USC.
|
09-05-15 |
San Francisco Giants +108 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
108 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on San Francisco Giants +108
The Key: The San Francisco Giants still have an outside shot of making the postseason. It's going to take something spectacular down the stretch, and I don't think they have thrown in the towel yet. Getting them as underdogs against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Colorado Rockies is a great value Saturday. That's especially the case when you consider how poor Chad Bettis has pitched for the Rockies this year. He's 6-4 with a 4.78 ERA in 15 starts, and 3-2 with a 5.28 ERA in 8 home starts. Take San Francisco.
|
09-05-15 |
Georgia Southern +19.5 v. West Virginia |
|
0-44 |
Loss |
-106 |
51 h 18 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF DOG OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern +19.5
The Key: Georgia Southern was one of the biggest surprises in the country last year in its first season as an FBS member. It went 8-0 in Sun Belt play and finished 9-3 overall. Two of its losses were by a combined five points at NC State (23-24) as 20-point underdogs and at Georgia Tech (38-42) as 17-point dogs. The Eagles just aren't getting the respect they deserve to open 2015, either. They have a lot of talent back from that team with 13 starters and 58 lettermen returning. The defense returns eight starters after giving up only 23.4 points per game last season. The offense put up 39.1 points per game last year, and while only five starters return, the Eagles do have all of their top skill players back. Each of the top three running backs return, led by Matt Breida (1,485 yards, 17 TD). QB Kevin Ellison is bakck after rushing for 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns. While the Eagles won't catch the Mountaineers by surprise like they did most teams last year, they are still good enough to stay within this big spread. I do think WVU will be better this season with 15 starters back, but it does lose its top two receivers to the NFL, and starting QB Clint Trickett. I do not feel like the Mountaineers will have the firepower offensively to cover such a big number. They only had two wins last season by more than this number, which were against Towson and a down Oklahoma State team. The Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. The Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Georgia Southern.
|
09-05-15 |
Penn State -7 v. Temple |
Top |
10-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
47 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -7
The Key: The Penn State Nittany Lions go from having just 64 scholarship players last year to 83 scholarship players in 2015 as the sanctions are now gone. I look for them to now break through and compete for a Big Ten Championship in James Franklin's second season. He returns 15 starters this season. The offense is loaded with talent behind QB Christian Hackenberg and eight returning starters. Hackenberg is a potential No. 1 draft pick despite struggling last year. He has his top two receivers, leading rusher, and four offensive linemen back. The defense is going to be suffocating again with seven starters back after allowing just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game last season. Temple is also an improved team this year with 19 starts back, but this was a team that was outgained by nearly 70 yards per game in AAC play last year. The offense isn't very good, and I just don't see Temple being able to score enough points to keep up against this solid Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions outgained the Owls by 118 yards last year in their 30-13 victory, which was their 31st-straight triumph in this head-to-head series. That stat alone lets you know that the Nittany Lions should be favored by more. Take Penn State.
|
09-05-15 |
Kent State +13.5 v. Illinois |
|
3-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Saturday *CA$H COW* on Kent State +13.5
The Key: Kent State enters Year 3 under Paul Haynes. This team only had 11 returning starters in his first season in 2013 and 10 returning starters last year. It's easy to see why they went just 4-8 and 2-9 in those two seasons, respectively. This was a big rebuilding job after Darrel Hazzell bolted for Purdue. But now Haynes will have by far his best team yet with a whopping 17 returning starters in 2015. The offense will be much improved with RB Trayion Durham returning from injury, pairing him with Nick Holley, who played well in Durham's place last year. This 1-2 punch in the backfield will be rushing behind a veteran offensive line that returns four starters. Colin Reardon is a junior QB who has a lot of experience after starting the past two years. The defense allowed 29.0 points per game last season and should be improved with a whopping nine starters and each of their top 11 tacklers back. Illinois is in a tough position having just fired head coach Tim Beckman. Offensive coordinator Bill Cubit takes over the interim role. The offense is sure to suffer due to the possible season-ending injury to leading receiver Mike Dudek, who had a huge freshman season with 76 receptions, 1,038 yards and six touchdowns. Illinois did go 3-0 at home in non-conference play last year, but all three wins came by 11 points or less over Youngstown State (28-17), WKU (42-34) and Texas State (42-35). I look for this vastly improved Kent State team to keep that trend going and stay within the 14.5-point spread Friday. The Fighting Illini are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. MAC opponents. Take Kent State.
|
09-04-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays -167 |
Top |
10-2 |
Loss |
-167 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -167
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays just cannot be tamed right now. They are 23-5 in their last 28 games overall and determined to win the AL East. The Baltimore Orioles are stuck in reverse. They are 2-12 in their last 14 games overall to essentially play themselves out of the postseason. They aren't in a good state of mind right now like the Blue Jays are. Betting on Drew Hutchison at home as been a wide move this year. Hutchison is 11-1 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 14 home starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in his last three starts overall, saving his best for last. He'll be opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 15 road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Hutchison is 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Baltimore. Hutchison is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Hutchison is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Toronto.
|
09-03-15 |
TCU -16.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
23-17 |
Loss |
-101 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Thursday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -16.5
The Key: TCU loaded this season with 15 returning starters from a team that went 12-1 last season. The offense is going to pick up right where it left off in the opener against Minnesota. That's because the Frogs return 10 starters from an offense that put up 46.5 points and 533 yards per game last season. Minnesota went 8-5 last season despite actually getting outgained by 11 yards per game on the year. Now it returns just 12 starters in 2015. The Gophers should be on the same level defensively as they were last season with seven starters back, but their offense is going to be even worse even after averaging just 357 yards per game last season. RB David Cobb and TE Maxx Williams are off to the NFL, leaving the Gophers with no proven playmakers. They lost four of their top five receivers. Mitch Leidner isn't a very good quarterback as he threw for just 1,798 yards on 51.5 percent completions last year. His job is going to be even more difficult now with the loss of his two studs. Betting on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who won 80% or more of their games the previous season in non-conference games between two Power 5 conferences are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take TCU.
|
09-03-15 |
San Francisco Giants -122 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
3-11 |
Loss |
-122 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Motivational Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -122
The Key: The San Francisco Giants have lost five straight and are in desperate need of a victory now. They trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 6.5 games for the NL West lead. If they are going to be making the postseason, they have to put together a huge run down the stretch, and it starts with this series against lowly Colorado (54-78), which has the third-worst record in baseball. Ryan Vogelsong has been an average starter this year at 9-10 with a 4.19 ERA. He is 6-3 with a 4.41 ERA in 12 starts against Colorado. In his only start against the Rockies this year, Vogelsong pitched six shutout innings of an 11-8 win at Coors Field on May 22. Chris Rusin is the worse starter in this matchup. Rusin is 4-7 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 16 starts and 5 relief outings, and 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Rockies are 1-10 in Rusin's last 11 starts as an underdog. Take San Francisco.
|
09-03-15 |
Minnesota Vikings +2 v. Tennessee Titans |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Thursday Night *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Vikings +2
|
09-02-15 |
Texas Rangers -131 v. San Diego Padres |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Never Lost *Mound Mismatch* on Texas Rangers -131
The Key: The Texas Rangers have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall to take over the final wild card spot in the American League. They have a lot to play for right now, while the San Diego Padres do not. Getting Cole Hamels at this price is a gift from oddsmakers. Hamels is 8-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 25 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts with the Rangers. Ian Kennedy is 8-12 with a 3.94 ERA in 24 starts, and 6-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 12 home starts, which is really poor considering his pitchers in a pitcher's park at Petco. Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 16 lifetime starts versus San Diego. In his last two starts against the Padres, he has allowed just one earned run in 15 innings while striking out 20. Kennedy is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Texas, having never beaten the Rangers. The Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague home games. The Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Texas.
|
09-01-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
7* AL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are 24-6 in their last 30 games overall. The amazing part about that is the fact that 21 of their 24 wins have come by two runs or more. They have been blowing out the opposition on the regular, and after losing yesterday, I look for them to get back to crushing the opposition Tuesday. Marco Estrada is 11-8 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 21 starts and six relief outings in 2015. He has proven to be a huge addition to the rotation this year. Cody Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA in nine starts for the Indians. Anderson has really been battered recently, going 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts. He has allowed 11 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings during this span, and now he faced the most potent lineup in baseball in the Blue Jays. The Indians are 51-111 in their last 162 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss. The Blue Jays are 41-19 in their last 60 home games. Take Toronto on the Run Line.
|
08-31-15 |
Texas Rangers +114 v. San Diego Padres |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers +114
The Key: The Texas Rangers (68-61) are rolling right now and should not be underdogs to the San Diego Padres. The Rangers have won four straight and seven of their last nine to take over the last wild card spot in the American League. Of course, they have a plethora of teams right on their heels, so they cannot afford to let up. The San Diego Padres (63-67) have nothing to play for at this point, and it has shown with their play of late. The Padres have gone 2-5 in their last seven games overall. Colby Lewis has gone 14-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 26 starts, 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 13 road starts, and 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts. Tyson Ross is 3-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 11 home starts this year. That's pretty bad when you consider he pitches inside pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He has walked an MLB-high 72 batters this season. The Rangers are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games as an underdog. The Rangers are 6-0 in Lewis' last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. The Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague home games. Take Texas.
|
08-30-15 |
Houston Texans +4.5 v. New Orleans Saints |
|
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* Texans/Saints Sunday NFLX *CA$H COW* on Houston +4.5
|
08-30-15 |
Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-101)
The Key: The Washington Nationals have won 5 of their last 7 games overall with each of their two losses coming by a single run. They are making their move to try and catch the Mets in the NL East. Now they have a massive advantage on the mound over the lowly Marlins in the finale of this series Sunday. Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in eight home starts this year. Strasburg is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Brad Hand is 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in four road starts this year. Hand has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in seven lifetime starts against them. Strasburg is 19-2 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday for his career. The Nationals are winning by an average of 3.0 runs per game in his Sunday starts. Take Washington on the Run Line.
|
08-29-15 |
Chicago Bears v. Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 |
|
10-21 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
6* Bears/Bengals Non-Conference *Annihilator* on Cincinnati -3.5
|
08-29-15 |
Seattle Mariners -105 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Seattle Mariners -105
The Key: These are two teams that don't have a lot to play for right now, but I like what I've seen from the Mariners better here of late. They have won four of their last six, while the White Sox have dropped four of their last six. I also like the fact that Seattle has the advantage on the mound in this one. Hisashi Iwakuma is 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 13 starts, and 2-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in five road starts. He is also 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in four starts this month. But what really stands out is that Iwakuma is 1-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.522 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Chicago. Jeff Samardzija is 8-10 with a 4.75 ERA in 26 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA in his last three. He has pretty much packed it in in the second half. He is 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA in five August starts thus far. The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog. Take Seattle.
|
08-29-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Buffalo Bills |
|
19-43 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* Steelers/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +3
|
08-28-15 |
Oakland A's -113 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
4-6 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland A's -113
The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks are extremely deflated right now. They just got swept in a 4-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals to fall 8.5 games back in the NL West standings. That series pretty much sealed their fate that they won't be going to the postseason. I don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Oakland A's today, who had yesterday off while the Diamondbacks played and lost Thursday. Now they have to face one of the best starters in baseball in Sonny Gray. The right-hander has gone 12-5 with a 2.10 ERA in 25 starts, including 8-2 with a 1.64 ERA in 13 road starts. Gray will be opposed by Chase Anderson, who is 6-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 22 starts this season. Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three outings overall. Arizona is 0-7 (-7.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. The A's are 39-18 in their last 57 interleague games as a favorite. Oakland is 7-0 in its last seven games as a road favorite. The A's are 7-1 in Gray's last 8 road starts. The Diamondbacks are 24-50 in their last 74 games as a home underdog. Arizona is 20-52 in its last 72 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Oakland.
|
08-28-15 |
New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers |
|
17-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Friday Night *CA$H COW* on New England Patriots PK
|
08-27-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. San Francisco Giants -158 |
Top |
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* National League *Mound Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -158
The Key: The San Francisco Giants are in a battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West. They are also chasing the Cubs in the wild card. They put an end to a 3-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cubs yesterday. Now, I expect them to win again today and take the series behind their ace in Madison Bumgarner. The left-hander is 15-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 25 starts, 7-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 13 home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.658 WHIP in his last three. While Bumgarner is pitching his best ball of the season, Dan Haren has gone the other direction. Haren is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in his last three outings. Bumgarner is 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against Chicago as well. Bumgarner is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. The Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 8-0 in Bumgarners last 8 starts vs. National League Central. Take San Francisco.
|
08-26-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -142 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh Pirates -142
The Key: Off a rare loss to the Miami Marlins yesterday, I look for the Pirates to come back hungry tonight for a win as they continue their pursuit of the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central. The Pirates are still 10-3 in their last 13 games and have been a resilient bunch to boot. They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss. The Marlins simply aren't very good and I have plenty of confidence in laying this kind of juice to fade them. Jeff Locke has had plenty of success against Miami. He is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in six lifetime starts against them. He has given up just 5 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them. Chris Narveson will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins. The Pirates are 9-0 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates are 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Locke's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Pittsburgh.
|
08-25-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -119 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
9-1 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* NL *Never Lost* Mound Mismatch on St. Louis Cardinals -119
The Key: We're getting the best team in baseball at a very generous price tonight when you consider they actually have the advantage on the mound, too. Jamie Garcia has been nothing short of spectacular, going 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He is 2-2 with a 1.32 ERA in five road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last three starts overall. Garcia is also 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four lifetime starts against Arizona having never lost. He'll be opposed by Robbie Ray, who is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in six home starts this season. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his six home starts. Ray is also 0-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Take St. Louis.
|
08-24-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -153 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh Pirates -153
The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates are breathing down the neck of the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central. They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and aren't about to slow down against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Miami Marlins. That's why I'm willing to lay this kind of juice with the Pirates tonight. J.A. Happ has pitched lights-out over his last two starts, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA while allowing just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings. Happ is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Miami. Tom Koehler is just an average starter in this league, going 8-11 with a 4.02 ERA in 23 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in his last three. Koehler has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three lifetime starts against them. Take that 100% never lost angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Pittsburgh.
|
08-23-15 |
Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. San Francisco 49ers |
|
6-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
6* Cowboys/49ers NFLX *CA$H COW* on Dallas Cowboys +4.5
|
08-23-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays -123 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
2-8 |
Loss |
-123 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay Rays -123
The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays (62-61) are fighting to stay alive for the postseason. They have won three straight one-run games coming in to give them a ton of confidence. I look for them to sweep an Oakland A's (53-71) team that is just 2-9 in its last 11 games overall and with little to play for. The key is that Tampa has a big advantage on the mound. Jake Odorizzi is one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 20 starts. Kendall Gravemen has been the weakest link in the A's rotation this year. Gravemen is 6-9 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 20 starts, and 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three. The A's are 0-7 in Graveman's last 7 starts. Take Tampa Bay.
|
08-22-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. NY Giants |
|
12-22 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville Jaguars +3
|
08-22-15 |
Texas Rangers -118 v. Detroit Tigers |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers -118
The Key: The Detroit Tigers are so desperate for a starting pitcher that they went out and got Randy Wolf to start a game today against the surging Texas Rangers. The Rangers are right in the thick of the AL wild card race and playing their best baseball of the season. I'll back them at this tremendous price Saturday. Yovani Gallardo is 9-9 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts this season. Gallardo sports a 3.86 ERA in his career against Detroit. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take Texas.
|
08-21-15 |
Atlanta Falcons +2 v. NY Jets |
|
22-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Friday Night *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons +2
|
08-21-15 |
San Francisco Giants -130 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
7* National League *Mound Mismatch* on San Francisco Giants -130
The Key: It's getting closer to the postseason, and with the Giants fighting for the NL West title and to stay alive in the wild card, it's no surprise that Madison Bumgarner has stepped up his game a notch. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in his last three starts to drop his season numbers to 14-6 (2.98 ERA, 1.035 WHIP). He has pitched two straight complete games, with his last being a shutout and 14 K's. Bumgarner sports a 2.38 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in five lifetime starts versus tonight's opponent, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jeff Locke gets the ball for Pittsburgh and is nowhere near on Bumgarner's level. The left-hander is 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 23 starts. Locke sports an 8.68 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus San Francisco. Bumgarner is 17-1 (+16.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Bumgarner is 17-1 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take San Francisco.
|
08-20-15 |
Washington Nationals -191 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-191 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -191
The Key: I have won with the Nationals the past two days as they've outscored the Rockies 19-7 while going 2-0. I'll back them to cap off the sweep tonight due to the massive edge they have on the mound in this one. Plus, the Rockies are just 1-8 in their last nine games overall and appear to have quit. Max Scherzer is worth the price of admission today. The right-hander is 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 24 starts, and 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 13 road starts. He'll be opposed by Yohan Flande, who is 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.266 WHIP over 38 2/3 innings pitched this season. Flande is 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Washington. Scherzer is 24-3 (+18.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons. That's why it's safe to lay this kind of juice with him. Take Washington.
|
08-20-15 |
Buffalo Bills +3 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
11-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Thursday Night *CA$H COW* on Buffalo Bills +3
|
08-19-15 |
Washington Nationals -146 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -146
The Key: The Washington Nationals put an end to their six-game losing streak yesterday with a 15-6 victory over the Rockies, who have gone 1-7 in their last eight games overall. I look for that scoring outburst to be a signs of things to come for the Nationals, who are finally getting healthy. Stephen Strasburg just recently returned to the rotation from injury, and he has been nothing short of dominant. Strasburg is 1-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts with 23 K's in 16 2/3 innings. Strasburg is also 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Colorado. Jorge De La Rosa has not enjoyed pitching at home this year, going 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 10 starts at Coors Field. De La Rosa sports a 4.12 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in nine lifetime starts versus Washington. The Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Washington is 4-1 in Strasburg's last 5 starts. The Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Colorado is 0-7 in its last seven games with a total set of 9.0-10.5. Take Washington.
|
08-18-15 |
Washington Nationals -148 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
15-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -148
The Key: The time is now for the Washington Nationals to get their act together and make a run at the NL East crown. They have lost six straight coming in, but now they take on a team that has struggled just as much in the Rockies, who have lost 6 of their last 7. The Nationals just have a lot more to play for right now, plus they have the clear advantage on the mound. Jordan Zimmerman is 8-8 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 24 starts this season. He owns the Rockies, going 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them. David Hale is 3-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.388 WHIP this season for Colorado. Hale has been brutal of late, going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in his last three starts. The Nationals are 45-16 in Zimmermann's last 61 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 63-23 in Zimmermann's last 86 starts as a favorite. The Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rockies are 0-5 in Hale's last 5 starts. Take Washington.
|
08-17-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -124 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas Rangers -124
The Key: The Texas Rangers have won four straight games and are now right in the thick if the AL wild card race. They are only one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot. They traded for Cole Hamels before the deadline, and now that move could really pay off going forward to get them in the postseason. Hamels is 6-8 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 22 starts this season, and 2-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's better than Seattle's Taijuan Walker, sho is 8-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 23 starts this year, and 6-4 with a 5.03 ERA in 13 road starts. The Mariners are 17-35 in their last 52 games following a win. The Rangers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Take Texas.
|
08-16-15 |
San Diego Padres -103 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -103
The Key: The San Diego Padres have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall. They have not quit on their season and have scored a combined 30 runs in their past four games. The Colorado Rockies appear to have quit. They have gone 0-6 in their last six games overall and have scored only 15 combined runs in the process. The Padres have the advantage on the mound behind Ian Kennedy, who is 7-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 21 starts, 2-6 with 3.81 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Plus, Kennedy is 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 19 lifetime starts versus Colorado. Chris Rusin is 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 13 starts this year, and 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Padres are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. The Padres are 4-1 in Kennedy's last 5 starts versus Colorado. Take San Diego.
|
08-15-15 |
Washington Nationals -105 v. San Francisco Giants |
Top |
6-12 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* Nationals/Giants NL Saturday Night 'Bailout' on Washington -105
The Key: The Washington Nationals will be hungry for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants. They have now lost four in a row and are desperate for a victory to turn their season around. Surprisingly, Gio Gonzalez has been their best starter over the past couple months. The left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts. Gonzalez hasn't lost to San Francisco since 2010, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in five meetings since. Jake Peavy is 2-5 with a 3.76 ERA in nine starts this season for the Giants. Peavy is 4-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 13 lifetime starts versus Washington. Peavy is 29-57 (-23.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career. The Nationals are 13-3 in Gonzalez's last 16 starts vs. National League West. The Nationals are 47-23 in Gonzalez's last 70 starts as a favorite. The Giants are 0-6 in Peavy's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Washington.
|
08-15-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Houston Texans -2.5 |
|
10-23 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Saturday *CA$H COW* on Houston Texans -2.5
|
08-14-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Friday Night *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville Jaguars PK
|
08-14-15 |
New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* AL Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-104)
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball. They have won 11 in a row with 10 of those victories coming by 2 runs or more. That's why I have no problem backing them on the run line today against the struggling Yankees, who have lost 5 of 6 to fall behind the Blue Jays in the AL East. Ace David Price gets the ball for Toronto, and he's 11-4 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 23 starts this year. He has won each of his first two starts with the Blue Jays, allowing 1 run in 15 innings. One of those was against the Yankees on August 8 in his last start as he pitched 7 shutout innings of a 6-0 victory. Ivan Nova does not enjoy facing this potent Toronto lineup. Nova sports a 4.83 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus New York. The Blue Jays are 10-1 against the run line in their last 11 games overall. Take Toronto.
|
08-13-15 |
Washington Nationals -127 v. San Francisco Giants |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-127 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* Nationals/Giants NL Thursday Night 'Bailout' on Washington -127
The Key: The Washington Nationals really need to pick it up now if they want to make the postseason. They were shut out the past two days and have dropped to 58-55 on the season. One of the teams they are chasing is the San Francisco Giants (60-53), so they will be hungry in Game 1 of this series tonight. They have the edge on the mound behind Stephen Strasburg, who is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.623 WHIP in his last three starts. He struck out 12 and allowed just 1 run and 3 base runners in 7 innings of a 6-1 win over Colorado in his first start back from injury on August 8. Ryan Vogelsong is no more than an average starter, going 7-8 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.391 WHIP over 17 starts and 8 relief outings this season. Strasburg is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 7 lifetime starts versus San Francisco, while Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA in 7 lifetime starts versus Washington. The Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts. The Giants are 1-4 in Vogelsong's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take Washington.
|
08-13-15 |
Washington Redskins +2.5 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
6* NFLX Thursday *CA$H COW* on Washington Redskins +2.5
|
08-12-15 |
Baltimore Orioles +120 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore Orioles +120
The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are now two games back in the wild card and still alive for the AL East division. They have been one of the most resilient teams in baseball here of late. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. They haven't lost consecutive games since July 23-24. After last night's tough 5-6 loss to the Mariners, I look for them to bounce back with a win Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has pitched pretty well with a 4.56 ERA in spite of a solid 1.220 WHIP over 53 1/3 innings this season. Guasman is 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in his last three starts as well. He'll be opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 10 starts, and 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six home starts. Gausman sports a 1.35 ERA in his only lifetime start versus Seattle. The Mariners are 17-35 in their last 52 games following a win. The Orioles are 8-2 in Gausman's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore.
|
08-11-15 |
Los Angeles Angels -115 v. Chicago White Sox |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
7* AL Tuesday 'Mound Mismatch' on Los Angeles Angels -115
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels find themselves not only in a dog fight with the Houston Astros to win the AL West, but also with several teams to hold on to the final wild card spot in the American League. The Chicago White Sox (52-58) have really fallen out of that race by going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. With the advantage the Angels have on the mound today, they should be much heavier favorites. Hector Santiago is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 4-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief appearances. Rodon is 3-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.672 WHIP in eight home starts, and 1-1 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his last three starts. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels are 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Los Angeles.
|
08-10-15 |
Washington Nationals +115 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
115 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* Nationals/Dodgers National League 'Bailout' on Washington +115
The Key: The Washington Nationals are 5 games out of the wild card and 1.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the NL East. This is a much more important series for them than Los Angeles, which leads San Francisco by 3 games in the West. I'll back the red-hot Gio Gonzalez at a great price tonight. Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last seven starts. He is also 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. Brett Anderson has been decent this year at 6-6 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 21 starts for the Dodgers. But Anderson is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. Gonzalez is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The Nationals are 12-3 in Gonzalez's last 15 starts vs. NL West foes. Take Washington.
|
08-09-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 34.5 |
|
3-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* Steelers/Vikings NFLX *CA$H COW* on UNDER 34.5
|
08-09-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels -120 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Angels -120
The Key: After getting shut out 5-0 by the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, the Los Angeles Angels will be motivated Sunday to win this series. This is a very generous price to back Jered Weaver, who is 2-2 with a 3.43 ERA in six home starts this year. Weaver is 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts versus Baltimore. He'll be opposed by Miguel Gonzalez, who is 9-8 with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts this year. Gonzalez is 5-5 with a 4.64 ERA in 10 road starts as well. The Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Angels are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite. The Angels are 45-16 in Weaver's last 61 home starts. Take Los Angeles.
|
08-08-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels -145 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-145 |
20 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* MLB 'Never Lost' Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -145
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels have a very favorable starting pitching match-up today that I'm going to back. Garrett Richards has been solid all season, going 11-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.177 WHIP in 20 starts. He has been especially dominant at home, going 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in 10 starts. Richards gave up 2 earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his only start against the Orioles in 2015 back on May 17. Ubaldo Jimenez is 2-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 12 road starts this year. He has been battered of late, going 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts. But what stands out most is that Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. That's right, he and his teams are winless in all 5 starts. Jimenez drops to 0-6 for his career against the Angels after tonight folks. Take Los Angeles.
|
08-07-15 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Arizona Diamondbacks -114 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona Diamondbacks -114
The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks (52-55) are still fighting to stay alive in the wild card race. Yes, they are seven games back, but they are in much better position than the Cincinnati Reds (48-58), who just traded their two best starters before the deadline. Chase Anderson is the better starter in this one as he's gone 4-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 18 starts. While not impressive, Anderson has been better than his counterpart. Raisel Iglesias is 2-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.395 WHIP over eight starts and two relief appearances for Cincinnati. Iglesias has been at his worst away from home, going 0-3 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in three road starts. In his lone lifetime start against Cincinnati in 2014, Anderson allowed 1 earned run and 5 base runners over 7 innings of a 2-1 victory. The Reds are 28-61 in their last 89 road games. Cincinnati is 17-49 in its last 66 games as a road underdog. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Arizona.
|
08-06-15 |
Houston Astros -113 v. Oakland A's |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
7* Astros/A's AL West 'Bailout' on Houston -113
The Key: The Houston Astros will be hungry for a victory today after losing their last three games coming in. They have lost the past two days by exactly one run each, so they will clearly be looking to get back in the win column in Game 1 of this series with Oakland. Scott Feldman has done his best work on the road this year for Houston, going 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in five starts away from home. While Aaron Brooks has a 3.09 ERA this season for Oakland, he has only pitched 11 2/3 innings, so it's a very small sample size. I believe he is getting too much respect for his ERA in limited action for an A's team with nothing to play for at 48-61. The Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series. Houston is 10-4 in its last 14 games as a favorite. The A's are 19-45 in their last 64 games as an underdog. Oakland is 1-6 in its last 7 during game 1 of a series. Take Houston.
|
08-05-15 |
Chicago Cubs +120 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
5-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs +120
The Key: The Chicago Cubs are showing solid value as road underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates when they shouldn't be today. The Cubs have won six straight coming in, including yesterday's 5-0 victory over the Pirates. I would argue that the Cubs have the edge on the mound with Dan Haren, who is 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 21 starts. Jeff Locke is 6-6 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 20 starts this season for Pittsburgh. Locke is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in eight lifetime starts versus Chicago. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last six road games. Take Chicago.
|
08-04-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels -124 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-124 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Tuesday Night "Bailout" on Los Angeles Angels -124
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels finally put an end to a stretch where they lost six straight and nine of 10 with a 5-4 win over the Indians last night. I was on them last night, and I'll back them again Tuesday to put together their first winning streak since July 21-22. I have no problem backing the Angels tonight with Matt Shoemaker on the mound. The right-hander has been on his game of late, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three starts. He has pitched 13 shutout innings in his last two starts while striking out 17. Shoemaker sports a 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in one lifetime start versus Cleveland. Carlos Carrasco has been overvalued for much of the season at 11-8 with a 4.03 ERA in 21 starts for the Indians, who have lost three straight and nine of 12. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Indians are 4-12 in Carrasco's last 16 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a favorite. The Angels are 8-0 in Shoemaker's last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Los Angeles.
|
08-03-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels -115 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -115
The Key: The Los Angeles Angels will be more motivated for a win today than they have been at any other point in the season. They have lost six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall to fall four games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. They are also barely hanging on to a wild card spot with just a two-game lead. It's safe to say they are going to want this series opener against the Cleveland Indians (48-56) pretty badly. This is a very generous price to get Garrett Richards, who is 10-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 19 starts this year. Richards has been virtually untouchable at home, going 6-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in nine home starts. Corey Kluber did win the Cy Young last year, but he's overvalued as a result and is just 6-11 with a 3.44 ERA in 2015. Kluber gave up 4 runs and 12 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. The Angels are 14-3 in Richards' last 17 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 7-15 in Kluber's last 22 starts. Take Los Angeles.
|
08-02-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins +128 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota Twins +128
The Key: The Minnesota Twins would be the final wild card team in the AL if the season ended today. But they lead a handful of teams by a very slim margin, so they clearly have a lot to play for. The Seattle Mariners have lost five of six to fall eight games back of them with little to play for. They own the second-worst record in the American League. The Twins should not be underdogs to the Mariners today given the situation, but also because the Twins actually have the edge on the mound, too. Mike Pelfrey is 5-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 19 starts this year. While he hasn't fared well on the road, he's been dominant at home, going 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA in nine starts. Hisashi Iwakuma just hasn't been the same pitcher this year because he's dealing with injury. He is 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in eight starts. Iwakuma gave up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in his last start against the Diamondbacks. The Mariners are 4-9 in Iwakuma's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mariners are 9-21 in their last 30 games as a favorite. The Twins are 21-7 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 7-3 in Pelfreys last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take Minnesota.
|
08-01-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -147 v. Cincinnati Reds |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-147 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -147
The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four of their last five games overall to get to 60 wins on the season. They are easily one of the best teams in baseball. They now send NL Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole to the mound to face the Reds, who were sellers at the deadline in shipping their two best starters in Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake to the Royals and Giants, respectively. Their rotation is now arguably the worst in baseball. Raisel Iglesias goes for the Reds, and he is 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.474 WHIP over 40 2/3 innings pitched this year. Cole has been superb, going 14-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 132 1/3 innings. Cole has actually been at his best on the road, too, going 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 10 starts away from home. The Pirates are 38-15 in Cole's last 53 starts. Cole is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Cole is 11-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Take Pittsburgh.
|
07-31-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Baltimore Orioles -159 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Baltimore Orioles -159
The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are in a great frame of mind right now. They have won five of their last six with four wins by two runs or more, and their lone loss came by a single run last night to the Tigers. Baltimore is only two games behind Minnesota for the final wild card spot, and it still believes it has a chance to catch the Yankees in the AL East. Detroit is trading off its players as it sent ace David Price to the Blue Jays, leaving it in a fragile state of mind. But the biggest reason I'm taking the Orioles today is because of the starting pitching match-up. Wei-Yin Chen has been the ace of the Orioles' staff this year, posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 19 starts. He'll be opposed by Buck Farmer, who has been destroyed in limited action in the big leagues this year. Farmer has gone 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. He has allowed 14 earned runs, 26 base runners and 4 homers in only 13 2/3 innings. I don't expect he'll have much success against this potent Baltimore lineup. The Orioles are 65-32 in their last 97 home games. Baltimore is 29-8 in Chen's last 37 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Baltimore.
|
07-30-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -137 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto Blue Jays -137
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays got a huge game from Troy Tulowitzki in his debut with the team last night. He had a homer and two doubles to lead the Blue Jays to an 8-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. At 51-51 on the season, now is the time for the Blue Jays to make their run. I look for them to make easy work of the Kansas City Royals tonight due to the edge they have on the mound and at the plate. Marco Estrada is having a fine season in Toronto, going 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.182 WHIP over 15 starts and six relief appearances. It isn't easy to pitch in Toronto, so his performance has really stood out to me. Danny Duffy is 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 14 starts this year for Kansas City. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Toronto. Meanwhile, Estrada sports a 2.70 ERA in his lone start against Kansas City, which came on July 10 of this year. The Royals are 2-11 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. The Royals are 0-7 in Duffy's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Royals are 12-26 in the last 38 meetings in Toronto. Take Toronto.
|
07-29-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-126)
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays know it's time to make a run at the playoffs. They sit at 50-51 right now and just traded for Troy Tulowitzki. They will be all in the rest of the way to try and end of the longest current playoff drought in baseball. The Phillies have won five in a row and nine of ten, but their run ends today. Toronto goes with R.A. Dickey, who is 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by Jerome Williams, who is 3-7 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.658 WHIP in 15 starts. Williams is 0-5 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.868 WHIP in eight road starts, and 0-2 with a 9.23 ERA and 1.815 WHIP in his last three starts. Dickey is 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Philadelphia. Williams gave up 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Toronto. The Blue Jays are 18-7 against the run line (+12.4 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 18-5 against the run line (+15.6 Units) after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 3 seasons. Take Toronto on the Run Line.
|
07-28-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -154 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-154 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Cubs -154
The Key: The Chicago Cubs (52-46) picked up an emotional win last night that could catapult them to the postseason the rest of the way. They were coming off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies and needed a win yesterday. But they blew a 7-4 lead by allowing four runs in the top of the 9th, only for Kris Bryant to save the day with a 2-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the 9th. This is the kind of win the Cubs can look back to as the turning point for them. The Colorado Rockies are clearly sellers right now as they traded Troy Tulowitzki last night, and that will have an impact on the emotional state of this team. Both the starting pitchers in tonight's matchup are not very good. Yohan Flande will be making his first start of the year for the ROckies, while Dallas Beeler will be making his third for the Cubs. Colorado is 3-22 (-17.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 24-67 in their last 91 road games. Colorado is 0-7 in Flande's last seven starts as an underdog. The Cubs are 14-4 in their last 18 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Chicago.
|
07-27-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -155 |
Top |
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* National League GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -155
The Key: The Chicago Cubs have reached their low point by getting swept by the National League-worst Philadelphia Phillies at home over the weekend. It's safe to say that they will be more motivated for a win Monday than they have been at any other point in the season when they welcome the Colorado Rockies (42-54) to Wrigley Stadium for Game 1 of this series. The Cubs clearly have the edge on the mound in this one behind Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 19 starts. Hendricks has been at his best at home, going 1-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in eight starts. Jorge De La Rosa has gone 6-4 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 16 starts this year for the Rockies. He allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings of an 8-10 loss to the Rangers in his last outing. Colorado is 3-18 (-12.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more this season. The Rockies are 6-42 (-31.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 24-66 in their last 90 road games overall. The Cubs are 7-1 in Hendricks' last 8 starts as a home favorite. Take Chicago.
|
07-26-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -108 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
5-8 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto Blue Jays -108
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays erased a 6-3 deficit to come back and win 8-6 after scoring two runs in the top of the 9th yesterday. It was a huge win for the Blue Jays to get them back to over .500 for the season and squarely in the AL East and wild-card races. It was an equally deflating loss for the Mariners, who now sit at 45-53 with little chance of making the postseason. I look for the Blue Jays to carry over that momentum into Sunday's game. They clearly have the advantage on the mound today to boot. Mark Buehrle has gone 11-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 19 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander is 8-4 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 18 lifetime starts versus Seattle. He has allowed 5 earned runs over 23 1/3 innings in his last three starts versus Seattle for a 1.93 ERA. Taijuan Walker is 7-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts for the Mariners, including 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA in his last three. Walker gave up 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 2-8 loss at Toronto on May 24 in his only start against the Blue Jays this year. Toronto is 6-0 in Buehrle's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Blue Jays are 13-3 in Buehrle's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 5-16 in their last 21 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 0-7 in Walker's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. Take Toronto.
|
07-25-15 |
Miami Marlins v. San Diego Padres -135 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres -135
The Key: The Miami Marlins just aren't a very good offensive team right now without their best player in Giancarlo Stanton. Yet, they continue to get respect from oddsmakers when they shouldn't be. The Padres got a win yesterday and will take Game 3 of this series tonight as well. Ian Kennedy isn't having his best season, but I still believe he is the better starter in this one. Plus, Kennedy is 3-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Miami. In fact, he is 1-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts against the Marlins, giving up 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. David Phelps is 4-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.283 WHIP this season for the Marlins, including 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in his last three starts. Phelps is 1-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Phelps is 4-16 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 18-41 in their last 59 games as a road underdog. Take San Diego.
|
07-24-15 |
Houston Astros -109 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Astros -109
The Key: The Houston Astros send one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Scott Kazmir to the mound today. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 18 starts, and 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.569 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The Astros made a huge move before the deadline in trading for Kazmir, who has to be extra motivated now that he is playing for a contender. He faces arguably the worst starter in the Royals' rotation in Jeremy Guthrie, who is 7-5 in spite of a 5.36 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in 18 starts this year. Guthrie is 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Kansas City as well. The Astros are 4-0 in their last four games overall. The Astros are 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. Take Houston.
|
07-23-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Oakland A's -105 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Thursday 'Mound Mismatch' on Oakland A's -105
The Key: I would argue that the Oakland A's are one of the best teams in the American League despite their 44-52 record. They are actually +48 in run differential, and only four teams in the AL have been better. Unfortunately, they are just 10-22 on one-run games, which is more of a poor luck factor than anything. The A's have now won five of their last seven games and are still fighting. They send one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Scott Kazmir to the mound today. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 18 starts, 4-2 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.569 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Kazmir has posted a 2.42 ERA in his last four starts versus Toronto while allowing 7 earned runs in 26 innings. He'll be opposed by Drew Hutchison, who is one of the most overrated starters in baseball because he has gotten good run support this year. Hutchison is 9-2 in spite of a 5.19 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 19 starts. He's also 2-1 in spite of an 8.81 ERA and 1.979 WHIP in 10 road starts, but his luck runs out today. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The A's are 9-2 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series. Oakland is 5-1 in Kazmir's last 6 starts as a favorite. Take Oakland.
|
07-22-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Oakland A's -147 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* AL 'BLOWOUT' Game of the Month on Oakland A's -147
The Key: I would argue that the Oakland A's are one of the best teams in the American League despite their 43-52 record. They are actually +47 in run differential, and only four teams in the AL have been better. Unfortunately, they are just 9-22 on one-run games, which is more of a poor luck factor than anything. The A's send AL Cy Young contender Sonny Gray to the mound tonight. The right-hander is 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 19 starts this season. Gray has also gone 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Toronto. He'll be opposed by Felix Doubront, who is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 14 innings pitched this year. Doubront is no more than a fill-in starter. He has gone 1-2 with a 7.85 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in four lifetime starts versus Oakland. Toronto is 0-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The Blue Jays are 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Oakland.
|
07-21-15 |
Chicago Cubs -116 v. Cincinnati Reds |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -116
The Key: After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Cincinnati Reds, I look for the Chicago Cubs to get back in the win column in Game 2 thanks to the advantage they have on the mound. Their motivation level is also higher in this series since the Reds know they are going to be sellers at the deadline coming up at the end of the month. Jason Hammel has revived his career in Chicago. The right-hander is 4-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.945 WHIP with 105 K's in 103 2/3 innings over 17 starts in 2015. He'll be opposed by Raisel Iglesias, who is 1-2 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.517 WHIP over five starts and two relief appearances this year. Iglesias is also 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last three starts. Cincinnati is 10-25 (-16.6 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win. The Cubs are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings. Take Chicago.
|
07-20-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates +117 v. Kansas City Royals |
Top |
10-7 |
Win
|
117 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Pirates +117
The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be highly motivated following a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. Look for them to come out with a sense of urgency in Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals. It will also help that they have a massive advantage on the mound. A.J. Burnett is 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 18 starts this season as he's clearly an NL Cy Young contender. He'll be opposed by Yordano Ventura, who is 4-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 13 starts on the year. Ventura is also 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA in six home starts and 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts. Burnett owns the Royals, going 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them. Pittsburgh is 91-55 (+32.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Burnett is 9-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The Pirates are 37-13 (+20.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The Pirates are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague games. The Royals are 0-5 in Ventura's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh.
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