Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/BEARS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears +4) I think the Bears should have been starting Trubisky from the start. Glennon has been putting Chicago behind the 8-ball just about every game with his inability to protect the football. I'm not saying Trubisky will play mistake free, but he's going to provide a spark to an offense that has one of the league's better rushing attacks and a very underrated defense. Minnesota gets back Bradford, but loses an even bigger piece to their offense in rookie RB Cook. It was already going to be tough getting the running game going against a solid Chicago front. I think the Vikings have a lot of 3rd and long situations that's going to let the Bears defense get off the field and keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright. Give me the Bears +4! |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/TEXANS SNF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +1) This is the week to go against the Chiefs, who have quickly become one of the public’s favorites teams to back early this season. While Kansas City is undefeated and one of the best teams in the league, they aren’t going to go 16-0. Chances are they will lose a few on the road and this has the makings of one of those spots. Houston is playing with a ton of confidence behind Watson, who finally has that offense playing on par with their defense. They are going to be extremely motivated to keep it going at home in a prime time game against the team with the best record in the league. The Chiefs on the other hand will be playing on short rest after that huge home game on MNF and might find it difficult to not look ahead to their home game against the Steelers next week. Adding to this is the fact that KC is just 1-4 ATS when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday the week before. The Chiefs defense is going to give up some yards. They rank 26th in the NFL, allowing 359.5 ypg. They have also struggled to keep quarterbacks from picking up big gains on the ground. In fact, twice the opposing team has led their team in rushing against KC. Carson Wentz had 55 yards on 4 attempts in Week 2 and Kirk Cousins went for 38 on 7 attempts. Watson is more athletic than both of those guys and I think his ability to scramble will have Houston’s offense putting up another big number on the scoreboard. Kansas City’s offense is playing well and will likely do some damage here, I just think they could struggle to finish off drives against this Houston defense that ranks 5th in the league, giving up just 291 ypg. Keep in mind the Chiefs could be without their projected starting interior offensive linemen for this game. I’ll take my chances the Texans get enough stops and win this game outright. Give me the Texans +1! |
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10-08-17 | Ravens v. Raiders -2.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -130 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (Raiders -2.5) I think we are getting some great value here with Oakland laying less than a field goal at home. The only reason the Raiders aren’t a much bigger favorite is the loss of Carr at QB. The thing is, I don’t know the drop off to backup E.J. Manuel is as big as people think. Manuel stepped in and completed 11 of 17 attempts for 106 yards and keep in mind that’s with Denver’s defense knowing Oakland was looking to pass the ball. This is a good offense for a backup to succeed, as the Raiders have one of the top offensive lines in the game and a bunch of talented weapons on the outside to make life easier on the quarterback. This could also be the week Marshawn Lynch comes to life, as the Ravens run defense has allowed 166 yards to the Jaguars and 173 to the Steeler the last two weeks. The drop off in run defense for Baltimore is coincided with the injury to defensive tackle Brandon Williams. He’s hasn’t practiced this week and looks unlikely to return for this game. That’s just one of a laundry list of injuries this Ravens team is dealing with right now. They got 10+ guys on IR and a lot of those are players who were expected to play big roles on this team. To lose the way they did to Jacksonville and come back against their hated rivals and lay another egg, tells me there’s a lot more wrong with this team than people think. They clearly aren’t playing with much confidence. I think the Raiders rally together with the injury to Carr and pull out the W at home. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is 10-2 ATS when his team is playing at home after 2 straight losses and Oakland is an impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 with a line of +3 to -3. Give me the Raiders -2.5! |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5) If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense. Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for. Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success. The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg. Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out. I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Browns +1) I’ll be the first two admit that I didn’t think the Jets would be sitting at 2-2 right now. In fact, I would have picked the Jets to be the team in this contest that was still searching for their first win. I’m not going to let a couple victories over the Dolphins and Jaguars change my thought process. I still think New York is one of the least talented teams in the league and will be at or near the bottom of the NFL standings at the end of the season. Both of their wins came at home and it’s easy to disregard both. Miami was just shutout by the Saints defense, which says how bad things are for the Dolphins on that side of the ball. Jacksonville has a win over the Texans prior to Deshaun Watson taking over and that victory over the Ravens looks a lot less impressive after how bad Baltimore played last week. I also feel like the Jets went into those last two games with the feeling they had something to proved (underdog in both). I think they struggle to bring that same sense of urgency on the road against the winless Browns. Not only will they struggle to give Cleveland their full attention because of the Browns record and history of losing, but they likely are looking ahead to their game next week at home against the hated Patriots. A matchup they probably feel like they can win with how New England is struggling on defense. Even after giving up 30+ points to the Bengals last week, Cleveland’s defense still ranks a respectable 16th, giving up just 328 ypg. The strength of the unit behind their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL, allowing only 87.2 ypg. That makes this an ideal matchup for the Browns, as the Jets are sitting 7th in rushing (130.8 ypg) compared to a mere 26th in passing (192.2 ypg). Keep in mind Cleveland will finally be sending out No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett for this contest, which should light a fire under the entire unit. As for the Browns offense, I know this doesn’t look like a great matchup for them, but the Jets are 29th in the league against the run, giving up 143.8 ypg. Cleveland’s only game this season where they rushed for more than 100 yards was at Indy when they finished with 28 points. Getting the ground game going will make life easier on Kizer, plus I’m not expecting an all-out effort by New York on the road. Jets are a mere 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games after they gained 6.5 or more yards/play and a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 2 straight home wins. Give me the Browns +1! |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals -3) I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons. A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown. The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines is also questionable. Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews. I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week. It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal. Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half. Give me the Bengals -3 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* PATS/BUCS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bucs +6) This Patriots defense has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the season. They are 31st in points allowed at 32.0 ppg and dead last in yards allowed (476.8 ypg). They are 32nd against the pass (324.0 ypg) and 26th against the run (132.8 ypg). This past weekend they let Cam Newtown and a struggling Carolina offense rack up 33 points and 444 yards. The defense was so bad, the Patriots couldn’t even win at home, despite being +2 in turnovers. As much as I hate going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a loss, I just see too much value in Tampa Bay as an underdog at home. I was impressed with how the Bucs responded against the Giants, as they were still missing some key players on defense. They are starting to get healthy on that side of the ball and while I don’t expect them to shutdown Brady and the Patriots offense, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this game close and at least cover. More than anything, I just don’t see New England’s defense being able to slow down Jameis Winston and this high-powered Buccaneers offense. A unit that’s only going to get better once DeSean Jackson starts getting more involved. They also get a big boost to their running game this week, as Doug Martin returns from a 3-game suspension. Martin was impressive in training camp and could step in right away with a huge game against this Pats defense. While New England’s offense is built around Brady and the passing attack, the ability to have some success on the ground is critical. It won’t be easy getting the running game going against the Bucs, who rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 78.7 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry. Note that the Patriots are just 1-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are holding opponents under 90 rushing yards/game. Give me the Bucs +6! |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -6.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
40* REDSKINS/CHIEFS NFL MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6.5) I have to roll the dice here with Kansas City at home in what is going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Last time the Chiefs played at home on MNF was that 41-14 blowout win over the Patriots back in 2014. I'm not saying it's going to get that ugly, but I like the Chiefs' chances of winning here by at least a touchdown, something they have done in each of their first 3 games. I think the defense for KC will be able to force some key mistakes by Cousins and the offense will pose some major problems with their dynamic trio of weapons in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Give me the Chiefs -6.5! |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Giants +3) I’m going to take the Giants +3 on the road over Tampa Bay. I think this is do-or-die for New York, as they know they can’t start 0-4 and realistically expect to make the playoffs in the NFC. Most importantly they still believe they are an elite team and we started to see the offense finally come to life late in last week’s game against the Eagles. Odell Beckham Jr. looks to be back to full strength and when he’s good this offense gets a lot more explosive. I also think it has a trickle down effect on the defense, who I expect to show up in a big way. I think we could see an offensive explosion from New York in this one. Tampa Bay’s defense is absolutely decimated with injuries. We know for sure they won’t have Lavonte David and may be without fellow linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and safety T.J. Ward. They also got guys like Chris Baker, Noah Spence and Jacquies Smith all battling back from injuries. Even if McCoy plays, he’s likely to be less than 100%, which is a big blow to the defense. Though maybe not as big as the loss of David. This banged up defense made Case Keenum look like Drew Brees, as Keenum completed 25 of 33 attempts for 369 yards and 3 scores. Minnesota also had 125 yards on the ground. Keenum was just 20 of 37 for 167 yards with no touchdowns in a ugly 9-25 loss for Minnesota at Pittsburgh. At the same time, the Bucs were fortunate to hold Chicago to just 7-points in their opener. The Bears actually put up very similar offensive numbers to Tampa Bay, but turned it over 4 times. They made 4 trips deep into Bucs territory and only came away with 7 points. The Giants do have a good defense that is built to stop the pass. That makes this a good matchup for them, as the Bucs are struggling to run the ball with Doug Martin suspended for their first 3 games. They come in ranked just 26th with 71.5 ypg. Jameis Winston still struggles with his decision making. He threw 3 interceptions last week against the Vikings. I Look for another turnover or two from Winston that shifts this game into the Giants favor. Give me New York +3 |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rams +6.5) While Dallas was able to pull away for the win and cover, I saw a lot of the same concerns that led to their blowout loss at Denver the week before. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Arizona was without arguably their best player in running back David Johnson, who the entire offense was built around. The Cardinals offensive line also was atrocious in that game. The thing is, Dallas is one of the public’s favorite teams to back right now and the books haven’t hesitated to inflate this line in their favor. While I think the Rams are gaining interest with their revamped offense under new head coach Sean McVay, the public isn’t going to go crazy for a team that is 2-1 with wins against the 49ers and Colts. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see McVay take the weapons here and turn this into a decent offensive attack, especially with the upgrades they made at both wide receiver and on the offensive line. Goff is playing with confidence and Todd Gurley is back to being a big time impact player. I just think that Dallas defense is still a major work in progress. I still can’t get over how good they made Trevor Siemian and that Broncos offense look in week 2. I think the Rams will be able to hold their own here. The big head scratcher for the Rams is the play of the defense. A unit many thought was going to be one of the best in the NFL with the talent they had coming back and the addition of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. So far, it’s been a shell of what we saw a year ago. I believe it’s going to get better and most importantly for this matchup, they have the talent up front to compete with that offensive line of the Cowboys and slow down their rushing attack. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pulled off the upset here. Keep in mind they have a big time advantage in terms of time to prepare for this matchup. Due to playing on Thursday, they will have had 9 days off between games. Dallas on the other hand gets just 5 days off after playing on Monday Night Football. Give me the Rams +6.5! |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Jets | 20-23 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Jags -3) I think this Jaguars team is the real deal and while this is likely going to be the public side, I still think we are getting value with this team because of how long they have been one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. As for the Jets, I still think this is one of the worst teams in the league and that didn't change the slightest after their upset win over Miami in Week 3. Just about every team in the league gets up for their home opener. We saw it last year with the 49ers, who looked great in a 28-0 win in Week 1 and then didn't win again until Week 16. What that win does do is keep the Jaguars from overlooking this game in their first game back from London. Jacksonville is a team on a mission and I just don't see them laying an egg her in a game they know they have to win if they want to seriously make a run at a playoff spot this season. The Jaguars defense should have no problem keeping this Jets offense in check and might even help out with a big turnover or two that turns this game into a lopsided affair early. I also think it isn't sitting well that their blowout win over the Ravens is being treated more as a result of Baltimore not showing up to play and not them playing well. Give me the Jaguars -3! |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -8 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
100* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR (Falcons -8) I know this is a big number, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-1 start and fresh off an upset win at home against the Broncos in Week 3. I think it has the public hesitating a bit here to Atlanta, who has a couple of wins over the Bears and Lions that weren't all that impressive. The thing is, both of those came on the road. The Falcons lone home game this season was a blowout win over the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Buffalo has a decent defense and was able to do enough on that side against a pretty limited Denver offense at home, where they are a much better team. I know they only lost by 6 at Carolina, but the final was 3-9. The Panthers offense was a joke in that game and has not looked good at all so far this season. Buffalo's offense was even worse and I just don't see them being able to contain this high-powered Falcons offense. I'm still convinced that the Bills are in a major rebuilding phase and aren't built to win. They simply have looked good early against a horrible Jets team, a bad Panthers offense and a Broncos team that was primed for a letdown after that big win over Dallas. I would be shocked if this is a game for long. Give me the Falcons -8 in a blowout! |
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10-01-17 | Titans -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) I've been impressed with what Deshaun Watson has been able to do for this Houston offense and his play last week in what should have been an upset of the Patriots. However, I think the way they lost that game puts them in a tough spot here against a hungry and very good Tennessee team. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a defeat where you let a win slip through your fingers. The other big thing to keep in mind here is that Houston's offense had looked awful in their previous two games. They simply went up against a Patriots defense that might be playing as bad as any unit in the NFL. I look for this Titans defense to really make life miserable for Watson and that offense, which has a below-average offensive line. As for Tennessee's offense, I think they pose some problems for this Houston defense, which is built more to get after the quarterback than to stop the run. The Titans have a top level offensive line and running game, plus a mobile quarterback that can make plays when nothing is there. Tennessee has one goal and that's to win the division, so I don't see them laying an egg off the big win over Seattle. Give me the Titans -2.5! |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
40* BEARS/PACKERS BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bears +7.5) The Packers have been decimated at the offensive tackle spot. Both starters are doubtful for this game and they have three others on IR. It’s really limited this Green Bay offense, who hasn’t been able to get anything going on the ground and has struggled to give Rodgers the time needed to attack teams through the air. The Packers managed just 64 yards rushing against Cincinnati last week and only had 59 the previous week against the Falcons. It’s unlikely they get anything going here, as the Bears come in ranked 8th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 83.7 ypg. Last week they held Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers to just 70 yards. They also sacked Ben Roethlisberger 3 times, limiting him to just 22 of 39 passing. I think it’s going to be hard for Green Bay to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Let’s also not overlook how well Chicago has played early on this year. They were right there with the Falcons at home in Week 1 and just beat a really good Steelers team. They did get blowout on the road against the Bucs in Week 2, but that wasn’t as bad as the 29-7 final would suggest. Chicago was basically even in total yards, but were done in by 4 turnovers. Something else that can’t be overlooked is the Green Bay defense letting a Bengals offense that couldn’t do anything the first two weeks move the ball with some success. I’m not saying the Bears are going to score at will here, but they should be able to sustain some drives and most importantly finish them with points on the scoreboard. Bears head coach John Fox has a history of getting his teams’ to play well on the road against division opponents. In fact, he’s an impressive 31-13 ATS in this spot over his NFL head coaching career. Fox is also a strong 14-4 ATS in road games against teams that struggle to run the ball, averaging 90 or less yards/game. Give me the Bears +7.5! |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5) I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5! |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK (Bengals +8) The biggest issue I have with this spread is Green Bay’s injury situation on offense. Multiple members of the offensive line are banged up, as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Those injuries clearly played a role in last week’s struggles against the Falcons and it remains to be seen how healthy and effective any of those injured players will be against the Bengals. One thing that’s been lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati’s disastrous start to the season is that the Bengals have actually played solid defense the first two weeks. Considering how little support the offense has provided, the Bengals giving up just 33 points over two games is rather impressive. Geno Atkins already has three sacks on the season, and I would expect he and the team’s other pass-rushing threats will be able to create some problems against a banged up Green Bay offensive line. Obviously, the Bengals actually being able to locate the end zone will be important to the Bengals being able to beat the spread. But if Cincinnati can keep feeding A.J. Green the ball as much as possible, he’s bound to make something positive happen. I also don’t see the Packers having an easy time moving the ball either. This could end up being a low-scoring game that helps Cincinnati stay close and beat the spread. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 42 | 27-33 | Loss | -117 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game. While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started. They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall. Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case. UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -3 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 55 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Falcons -3) I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a lot out of the Falcons this season coming into the year, but I really like what I have seen in the first two weeks and like the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal on the road against a Lions team that has benefited from playing a couple teams with horrible offensive line play in the Cardinals and Giants. I just think Detroit's defense is getting way too much respect against this high-powered Atlanta offense and while the Lions will score, I don't see them scoring enough to keep this game close. Teams listed as a dog that have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their first two games are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Give me the Falcons -3! |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6.5 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Giants +6.5) I know New York hasn’t looked good in their first two games, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. I fully expect the Giants to make some adjustments with their offensive line and make sure that Eli Manning gets some protection. It’s also going to help that Odell Beckham Jr will be another week removed from his ankle injury. He was clearly not 100% last week against the Lion. He caught just 4 passes for 36 yards. Look for a much bigger game out of him. I also like what I’m hearing about New York making a move to Orleans Darkwa at running back. He’s impressed in limited action and any improvement with their ground attack will help the passing game get going. This is also a hurting Eagles defense right now. They aren’t expected to have their top corner in Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks to start the year. They could also be without starting defensive end Brandon Graham, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia also has starting safety Rodney McLeod and backup Jaylen Watkins listed as questionable with hamstring injuries. What you can’t forget with the Giants is that while the offense isn’t performing up to their potential, they still have one of the leagues top defenses. One that I think really matchups up well with an Eagles offense that struggles to run the ball. At the same time, Carson Wentz is a QB that likes to take chances and will turn the ball over. Keep in mind the Eagles had just 13-points against a Chiefs defense missing one of it’s best players in Eric Berry up until the final seconds when they added a late TD. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but given how desperate they are to avoid an 0-3 start and the defenses ability to keep them in the game, I would have to take the points in this one. |
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09-24-17 | Bucs -2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39) I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 55.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/FALCONS SNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55.5) These two teams played twice last year. Once in the regular season and again in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams they combined for 60+ points. I'll take my chances on another shootout in Atlanta, as we got two of the best offenses in the league here behind two of the best QB's in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both of these teams will be eager to get the offense going after a sub-par showing in Week 1. Green Bay's slow start was to be expected against Seattle and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Falcons struggle in Chicago, which isn't a great field for offenses like Atlanta that rely on speed. I'm also not buying the Packers defense being as good as it looked against the Seahawks, as Seattle's offensive line is a joke. As for the Falcons, Matt Glennon moved the ball on them, so there's no reason to think Rodgers won't do the same. Give me the OVER 55.5! |
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09-17-17 | Redskins v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5) As most of you know, I’m big on the Rams this year. They were my favorite win total bet at OVER 5.5. They absolutely dominated the Colts in a 46-9 home win. Washington on the other hand looked bad in a 17-30 home loss to Philadelphia. An Eagles team they had won 5 straight against. You don’t want to overreact to Week 1, but I think it’s pretty clear what direction these two teams are headed in 2017. I actually think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and realize it should have been closer to a TD. That’s how high I am on LA and how down I am on Washington. The crazy thing is my perception of both teams has to do with the same guy. That’s new Rams head coach Sean McVay, who was responsible for turning the Redskins offensive attack into one of the best in the NFL with Kirk Cousins as his starting QB. Without McVay calling the shots, Washington’s offense managed just 10 points and only 264 total yards in Week 1 against the Eagles. Not to mention they had 4 turnovers. That’s an offense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 403.4 ypg. Cousins had just 240 yards on 58% passing. The Rams offense was responsible for 30 of the 46 points and had 373 yards. Goff looked like a completely different QB in McVay’s offense going 21 of 29 for 306 yards and Todd Gurley was at least a factor. The defense also limited the Colts to just 9 points and 225 total yards without their best player in Aaron Donald, who figures to be back this week. Give me the Rams -2.5! |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals v. Colts OVER 44 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 44) I was on the OVER in last weeks Colts/Rams game and a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis' defense being one of the worst in the league. The key here is we are getting a low total because of the fact that Arizona lost star RB David Johnson. The thing is, Carson Palmer has the weapons to attack a banged up Colts secondary, which is missing their best corner in Vontae Davis. I could see Arizona putting up a big number here, similar to what the Rams did last week. Keep in mind LA only had 63 rushing yards in that game, so the loss of Johnson just isn't that important here. As for the Colts offense, I expect a much better showing at home and now that Jacoby Brissett is starting over the awful Scott Tolzien. I think this total should be closer to 54 not 44. Give me the OVER 44! |
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09-17-17 | Bills v. Panthers -7 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BLOWOUT (Panthers -7) I'm big on Carolina this season, as I think we are going to see them jump right back into being near the top of the NFC. I really like the decision to keep Newton from running and use the backs more. They couldn't have looked much better on the road against the 49ers in Week 1. Buffalo also got a win and cover, but against the worst team in the league and that was a close game going into the 4th quarter. Luke Keuchley and the Panthers defense will be able to take away the Bills strength, which is their running game. That's going to allow Carolina to open this thing up and win here by double-digits. Give me the Panthers -7! |
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09-17-17 | Patriots -6 v. Saints | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots -6) I have a rule of thumb and that’s not to bet against Belichick and Brady off a loss, so as bad as it looked against KC, I'm riding them against the Saints. New England is 45-11 SU off a loss since 2001 and are 38-17-1 ATS in this spot, which is almost a 70% win rate against the number. The average win in this spot has been by 11 points. Losing the weapons at wide receiver and the likes of Hightower on defense would be enough for more to fade just about any other team in the league. Belichick is on a different level and will figure out some game plan that leads to a win. Just look at what he did last year with Jacoby Brissett against the Texans when Brady was suspended. I also think people aren’t giving enough credit to the Chiefs for their struggles. KC has played the Pats tough since Andy Reid came to the Chiefs. They made them look equally bad back in 2014 on MNF when they won 41-14 which was the game Brady got benched and the dynasty was over. They won the SB that year and the very next week destroyed the 3-0 Bengals 43-17. Give me the Patriots -6! |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6) Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6! |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 19-29 | Push | 0 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers OVER 47.5 | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47.5) I think we are going to see a lot more offense than people are expecting here. Carolina has a healthy Cam Newton who has MVP talent and a shiny new toy in RB Christian McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey makes the Panthers extremely difficult to guard with their big receivers on the outside. I respect the Panthers defense, but they still have a below-average secondary and the 49ers are expected to be much better offensively now that Kyle Shanahan is the head coach. He's going to open up things, which in turn is going to have the defense on the field more now that the offense isn't just trying to grind it down the field with the running game. I look for SF to be a good OVER play early on. Take the OVER 47.5! |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams OVER 41.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS ERROR OF THE WEEK (Over 41.5) I think there's some on the bandwagon that the Rams are going to be a much better offensive team this year under new head coach Sean McVay, but how much improvement is up for debate given how bad they were. They finished dead last in yards at 262.7 ypg and scoring at 14.0 ppg. I really like McVay and believe his scheme will have LA making a huge improvement into the top half of the league. He's gonna open up the offense and take advantage of the special talent that Gurley possesses. At the same time, most don't think the Colts can score with Andrew Luck not at quarterback. I think Indy will be able to move the ball just fine here, as they have some playmakers on the outside and are getting a huge break with Aaron Donald not expected to play (he's the guy that makes that defense elite). Give me the OVER 41.5! |
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09-10-17 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 239 h 47 m | Show |
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3) I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3! |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS WEEK 1 ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +9.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3) I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3! |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Falcons -5.5) It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5! |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
50* NFL Divisional Rd Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -1) Forget the fact that the Steelers won in a blowout in the regular season. That result means a little, especially given how early in the season it was. The Chiefs are a much better team than they were in that first meeting. Offensively rookie sensation Tyreek Hill was barely a part of the offense. Now he’s arguably their most important player alongside tight end Travis Kelce. On defense they didn’t have Justin Houston, who should be full go after getting multiple weeks off. This is also much better secondary that will face the Steelers than the first time around. Rookie D.J. White started at corner in the first meeting and was absolutely abused. He won’t even see the field this time around. Terrence Mitchell has taken over that role in the 2nd half of the season and really played well. A lot of people think this Chiefs team is limited offensively and can’t keep up with a high-scoring team like Pittsburgh. The numbers suggest otherwise. KC went 7-1 against teams who finished the season in the Top 10 in scoring, including a road win at Atlanta. In those 7 wins against the top scoring teams, it was the Chiefs offense that delivered, averaging 29.0 ppg. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Pittsburgh’s offense didn’t produce anywhere close to the same level on the road as they did at home. Just look at Big Ben’s numbers. He completed 71% of his passes with a 20-5 TD/INT ratio at home for a passer rating of 116.7. ON the road, he completed only 59.4% of his passing with a 9-8 TD/INT ratio and 78.4 rating. To put his road numbers into perspective, it very similar to that of what Brock Osweiler did on the year, as he completed 59% with a 15-16 TD/INT ratio and 72.2 passer rating. Another big factor here is Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and his success coming off a bye. Reid is 16-2 off a bye in the regular season and a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs. Lastly, you can’t overlook the advantage the Chiefs have playing at home. Arrowhead is as difficult a place to play as their is in the NFL in the regular season and it’s only magnified in the playoffs. The only home field edge I believe comparable to the Chiefs is Seattle and CenturyLink field and the Seahawks have won 10 straight at home. I’m 6-1 ATS when playing the Chiefs this season. I like my chances of improving to 7-1. Give me Kansas City -1! |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots -15 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NFL Texans/Patriots ATS Knockout (Patriots -15) I believe the books have set this line so high to not only entice action on the Texans, but to keep the public from pounding the Patriots. It's working, as this is the least bet game on the board. While the public might be hesitant to lay this big number on New England, I have no problem backing the Patriots to win by 3 scores at home. New England beat the Texans 27-0 at home in the regular season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I see no reason why they won't win by at least 17 with Brady under center. The thing is, it's well known that the Texans defense is good. However, the Pats have had two weeks to prepare for this defense, plus have already seen them in action. What makes them so good is their pass rush, most notably Clowney. Like they did in the first meeting, when they made Watt a non-factor, they will do the same with Clowney. Brady's dink and dunk approach will be able to move the ball. On the flip side of this, New England defense will be ready for Osweiler and his limitations and should be able to generate a couple turnovers and win here by 20+. Give me the Patriots -15! |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 44.5 | 13-38 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 44.5) I think the perception here is that Green Bay's defense struggling with injuries and Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, that this game is going to be high-scoring and fly over the total posted here of 44.5. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The Packers late season surge has come with them playing a favorable schedule, either against teams who haven't been good defensively or teams that just weren't the same defensively in the 2nd half (Seattle/Minnesota). The last real good defense they played was the Texans and they managed just 21 points. This Giants defense is just as good and has familiarity with Green Bay having played in the regular season. While I don't love Green Bay's defense, the Giants offense isn't anything special. They can't run the ball and Eli Manning isn't as good as he gets credit for. With the game in Green Bay and conditions not great, I think this is going to be a defensive showdown. Give me the UNDER 44.5! |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5) I think the fact that Houston is regarded as one of the worst teams to be in the playoffs, all the hate for Osweiler and how in love the public has been with the Raiders this season is creating some great value here. I was all over the Broncos in Week 17 and was shocked when the line moved in favor of the Raiders with Derek Carr being out. That was with backup Matt McGloin taking over. Now he’s out and Oakland has to turn to 3rd string rookie Conner Cook, who will be making his first career start. The Raiders offense couldn’t do anything against Denver and I think it’s going to be the same story here against a very talented Houston defense. Keep in mind the Broncos were missing some big pieces on defense in that game. Oakland ended up with just 221 yards and 11 first downs. The key here is that this is a defense he can exploit. The Raiders defense is awful and had it not been for Carr saving them in the majority of their wins, they wouldn’t have even sniffed the playoffs. Houston was a good team at home and I think Houston wins here by a touchdown easy and wouldn’t be shocked if it’s the biggest blowout on Wild Card weekend. Give me the Texans -3.5! |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster ATS Knockout (Chiefs -4) The Chiefs had one of the more remarkable comebacks of the season when they hosted the Chargers back in Week 1. I believe that has this line a little lower than it should be. Kansas City is coming off one of their best performances of the season last week against the Broncos and are the only team with something to play for in this game. This is also not the same Chargers team that jumped out to that big lead in Week 1. San Diego has been decimated with injuries and clearly are struggling to find motivation down the stretch with their loss last week to the Browns. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are 21-4 in their last 25 regular season games, this team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. I look for KC to rack up their 6th straight win over the Chargers and think there's a good chance they do so by double-digits. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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01-01-17 | Ravens v. Bengals +1 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational Dog of the Week (Bengals +1) I think the books have set a bad line here with the Ravens as a road favorite against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and while they are short-handed, they have not quit and I certainly aren't going to lay down in their home finale against a division rival. Baltimore is a good team and probably should be favored over Cincinnati in most situations. The thing is, this isn't one of them. The Ravens essentially played a playoff game last week at Pittsburgh. Win and they controlled their destiny in the AFC North, lose and they are out of the playoff race. That's a really tough pill to swallow and I just don't see them coming out and playing their hearts out with their season basically lost last week. When you aren't motivated to play, things can get ugly in a hurry, regardless of who the other team has on the field. Give me the Bengals +1! |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles -4.5) I absolutely love the value here with the Eagles in this one. Dallas is treating this like a Week 1 preseason game (resting guys, only playing starters for a series or two). I know the Eagles are favored, but I don't think by near enough given the circumstances. This game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys and the only thing on the coaches and players minds is to make sure no one gets hurt. They are going to keep things very vanilla and get the scrubs in as quickly as possible. The reason the line isn't bigger, is because there's so many public Cowboys backers out there that will bet them regardless of the situation. Philadelphia has shown they aren't going to just lay down and quit because their season didn't go as planned. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry and even if Dallas keeps it close early, they should pull away in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5! |
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12-26-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | 21-42 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Lions +6.5) This line is as if the Cowboys still had something to play for, which I just don't get. Dallas has already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, leaving them absolutely nothing to play for here. While the starters will be playing, they are just going to be going through the motions and I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas pulled a bunch of their key players in the 2nd half. For Detroit, this game is big, as they can secure a spot in the playoffs with a win. Sure they can do the same next week against Green Bay at home, but they lose here and again next week and they might miss the playoffs all together. I think this line should be closer to a field goal, giving us unbelievable value here with Detroit. Give me the Lions +6.5! |
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12-25-16 | Broncos v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
50* NFL Vega Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3.5) I look for KC to lay it on the Broncos in this one. Kansas City might already be in the playoffs by the time this game starts, but they still desperately want to win here. With Oakland losing Carr to injury, they still have a realistic shot of winning the division and getting a first round (need to win out and have OAK lose at DEN next week). The Chiefs are also the better team in this one and have a massive homefield advantage and it's going to feel like a playoff game at Arrowhead tonight. Give me the Chiefs -3.5! |
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12-24-16 | Bengals v. Texans -1 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Year (Texans -1) I absolutely love the value here with the Texans, as I think this is a huge letdown spot for Cincinnati and won’t be surprised if they don’t show up at all in this one. The thing is the Bengals have been playing really well leading up to this game. They only lost by 5 at Baltimore, won by double-digits at home over the Eagles and Browns and then had the Steelers on the ropes last week. The thing is they still had an outside shot at the playoffs for a good chunk of those and there was zero chance they weren’t going to show up against Pittsburgh at home, given how much they hate the Steelers and the impact a loss could have on Pittsburgh’s playoff chances. I believe the Bengals treated that game against the Steelers as it if was their Super Bowl. I just don’t see them being interested in all in this game against Houston, especially given it’s on Christmas Eve. I just see them going through the motions and worrying more about getting home to spend Christmas with their families. On the flip side of this, I also really like the Texans making the move to bench Brock Osweiler in favor of Tom Savage. You could see a renewed sense of life with Houston when Savage came in and started picking apart the Jaguars last week, rallying them from an early 0-13 deficit to a huge 21-20 win. DeAndre Hopkins, who had been a huge letdown this year, finished with 8 catches for 87 yards, speaking volumes to how bad Osweiler was. With the way this team can play defense, this move could make Houston a legit sleeper in the AFC. Either way, I think they are poised to lay in on the Bengals in this one. Give me the Texans -1! |
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12-24-16 | 49ers v. Rams -4.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NFL No Doubt ATS Blowout (Rams -4.5) This is a game that I think a lot of people are going to just overlook, given how bad both of these teams have been and how little this game means at this point of the season. I believe it's created some value here with Los Angeles, who I think wants to get something positive going into next season and do have some extra motivation here against this 49ers team. If you remember back to Week 1, San Francisco embarrassed the Rams 28-0 on Monday Night Football. I think there's going to be some payback wanted. As for the 49ers, I just don't see any reason for them to be excited about this game. Let's also not forget this is a team that has lost the Bears and Jets in the last 3 weeks and the other game was a 28-point loss to the Falcons. The 49ers are dead last in the NFL in run defense, making this an ideal matchup for the Rams. Give me Los Angeles -4.5! |
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12-24-16 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 53.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 53.5) No reason to overthink this one. This game has a high-scoring game written all over. On one side we have the Colts 11th ranked offense going up against the Raiders 30th ranked defense. On the other side we have Oakland's 6th ranked offense facing off against Indianapolis' 27th ranked defense. The OVER is a 5-1 in the Raiders 6 home games this season, as they are scoring 29.2 ppg at home and giving up 28.0 ppg. The Colts are averaging 30.0 ppg on the road and have scored 30+ in their last 4 on the road against the Titans, Packers, Jets and Vikings. OVER is 15-5 in the Raiders 20 home games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 in their last 9 off a road win. OVER is also 8-1 in the Colts last 9 road games with a total of 45.5 or more and 9-2 in their last 11 road games against AFC opponents. Give me the OVER 53.5! |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 42.5) I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight between the Giants and Eagles. New York's defense has been playing lights out of late and should have no problem keeping this slumping Philadelphia offense in check. New York's offense looks good on paper with Manning and Beckham, but they are only scoring 19.4 ppg on the season and just 17.3 ppg on the road. I know the Eagles are out of the playoff race, but I think they show up here at home in a prime time game on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 42.5! |
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12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
50* NFL -Panthers/Redskins Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 50.5) I believe we are going to see a lot of scoring take place on Monday Night Football. Washington's got an explosive offense that comes in averaging 27.5 ppg at home. This is also an ideal matchup for the Redskins pass-happy attack. Washington has the 2nd ranked passing attack in the league and will be facing a Panthers defense that is 30th versus the pass. Carolina also isn't a good defensive team on the road, giving up 32.5 ppg. On the flip side of this, the Panthers have a strong offense and will be facing a very suspect Redskins defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against he pass. Give me the OVER 50.5! |
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12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 38.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
40* NFL -Packers/Bears- Blockbuster Total Annihilator (UNDER 38.5) The books have set a very low total here for good reason. The conditions for this game are going to be absolutely miserable. Temperatures are expected to be right around 0 degrees with windchill approaching -15 below. Not to mention winds are going to be 15-20 mph, making matters only worse for scoring. This is going to make it very hard on the Packers to sustain drives, as they really struggle to run the ball. Chicago's offense is being guided by Matt Barkley and will be looking to grind out possessions to keep Green Bay's offense off the field. I just don't see either offense doing much of anything here. Give me the UNDER 38.5! |
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12-18-16 | Browns v. Bills -10 | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NFL -Browns/Bills- Situational ATS Knockout (Bills -10) Buffalo's playoff hopes might be slim, but the key here is they are still alive and NFL teams don't throw in the towel until all hope is lost. On top of that, there's some extra motivation here for Buffalo to avoid being the team to give the Browns their first win of the season. Cleveland had a golden opportunity last week, hosting the Bengals off their bye and were never really in the game. That's a tough thing for this team to swallow and I just don't see them being interested in playing a cold game in Buffalo with the potential for snow. I don't like laying double-digits in the NFL, but the Browns are simply that bad. Give me Buffalo -10! |
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12-18-16 | Colts v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
50* NFL -Colts/Vikings Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Vikings -4.5) The Vikings will be welcoming back Adrian Peterson to the offense and I expect him to have a big impact right away. Especially against a Colts defense that struggles against the run. Indianapolis had a chance to take control of the AFC South last week and weren't able to get it done. This Minnesota team reminds me a lot of the Texans, who are elite defensively. The Vikings are also a much better team at home and with how much this game means to them, I look for Minnesota to pull away for an easy win and cover. Give me the Vikings -4.5! |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins -2 v. Jets | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL Saturday ATS Knockout (Dolphins -2) When it gets to this point in the season, I don't have any problem laying a small number on the road in a division matchup. Miami is the ONLY team with something to play for and the Jets are some young up and coming team that wants to finish strong. New York has been a massive disappointment and want this season to be over with. The fans have completely lost interested in this team and aren't going to be overly thrilled about going out in the cold to watch them play a Dolphins team that's missing their starting quarterback, especially after how poorly they played in their last home game, which was that ugly 10-41 loss at home to the Colts on Monday Night Football. Matt Moore is a talented backup that can win a game or two down the stretch and is certainly better off than what New York is sending out at quarterback. Conditions won't be great, which means running the ball will be key and I believe the Dolphins clearly have the better ground game and the Jets run D has been non-existent of late. Give me Miami -2! |
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12-15-16 | Rams +16 v. Seahawks | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Rams +16) I look for a different looking Rams team to take the field tonight against the Seahawks. While the players respected Jeff Fisher, seeing him get fired should serve as a huge motivator, as they have to feel some of the blame for not playing up to their potential. On top of that, LA has a history of playing Seattle tough and let's not forget they beat the Seahawks earlier this season. This Seattle offensive line simply doesn't match up well with this dominant LA defensive line. It's not out of the question that the Seahawks don't even score 16 points in this game. Either way, I think the Rams can put up 7-14 to really make it hard for them to not cover this big number. Give me Los Angeles +16! |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational ATS Knockout (Ravens +6.5) I wouldn't be surprised at all if Baltimore won this game outright, so getting 6.5-points is a no brainer for me. New England has continued to win since losing Gronk, but it's come against a very soft schedule. Baltimore is by far going to be their biggest challenge since they lost at home to the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens defense is legit and the offense is finally starting to click. On top of that, Baltimore has a history of playing New England tough. Give me the Ravens +6.5! |
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12-11-16 | Chargers +1 v. Panthers | 16-28 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational Dog of the Week (Chargers +1) I just don’t trust this Carolina team right now. This is a really difficult spot for them to be in, with essentially nothing to play for in the final 4 games of the season after coming so close to winning a Super Bowl last year. They certainly didn’t show up to play last week in Seattle, allowing a Seahawks offense that managed just 5-points and 245 yards of total offense the previous game against the Bucs to rack up 534 yards and 40 points. I know the Chargers playoff hopes are also slim, but I don’t see this team throwing in the towel. San Diego has continued to show a lot of fight after their 1-4 start and still have a chance to finish with a winning record at 9-7. One player I’m confident that will show up for this game is Philip Rivers, who has to be excited about playing in the state of North Carolina for the first time since his collegiate days at NC State. On top of that, this is a great matchup for Rivers, as he faces a Panthers defense that ranks 30th against the pass, giving up 276.2 ypg. It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina really needs their running game to be working to have success and that plays right into the hands of San Diego’s defense, which ranks 3rd against the run (89.1 ypg). Take San Diego! |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 45.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 45.5) There's a lot to like about a low-scoring game here with the Bills and Steelers. For starters, Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. In fact the Steelers come in averaging around 30 ppg at home, compared to just 20 ppg on the road. Pittsburgh's high-powered passing attack also plays right into the strength of the Bills, defense which ranks 8th against the pass. As for Buffalo, they are 1st in rushing and dead last in passing. The Steelers counter that well, as they have the 6th ranked run defense. On top of all this, the conditions will be brutal (very similar to Chiefs/Raiders on TNF), winds will be close to 10 mph and the windchill will be in teens. Give me the UNDER 45.5! |
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12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles +2) The books are begging for you to take the Redskins as a small road favorite here, which only strengthens how much I like the Eagles at home in this one. Philadelphia has been so bad on the road, people forget this team is 4-1 at home this season. They are going to want revenge here against a division rival after losing in Washington earlier this season and I like their chances. Washington hasn't been playing all that great of late and the injuries are starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. This is a statement game for the Eagles, who not only want to damper Washington's playoff hopes, but snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Last time out the Redskins gave up 31 to a Cardinals offense that had been struggling, so there's every reason to believe Wentz and the Eagles offense can get rolling. Adding to that, Washington is just 2-8 ATS in their last 30 after giving up 30 or more points. You also can't overlook this being the Redskins 3rd straight on the road, which is one of the more difficult tasks to overcome in the NFL, especially this late in the season. Give me the Eagles +2! |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3) Kansas City is sick and tired of not getting the respect they deserve and will be out to make a statement at home against the Raiders tonight. A team they beat pretty convincingly in Oakland earlier this season. The key thing here is the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in quite a while and have a big advantage here playing at home on short rest in one of the toughest venues for opposing teams to play well. On top of that, the conditions here favor KC, as it's going to be one of the more colder home games in Chiefs history. I look for KC defense to be the difference in this one, while Alex Smith and a very underrated offense take advantage of a very suspect Raiders defense. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
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12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +1.5 | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Jets +1.5) I expect the Jets to put up a big fight at home tonight against a Colts team that I believe is one of the more overrated teams in the NFL. New York isn't as bad as their record would lead on and there's still a lot of pride in this prime time games for teams with a poor record. More than anything, this looks like a great matchup for the Jets. Their defensive front should be able to dominate the Colts poor offensive line and their offense is more than capable of moving the ball against a bad Indy defense. I believe the only reason the Jets aren't favored, is because of all the public love for the Colts and Andrew Luck. Give me the Jets +1.5! |
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12-04-16 | Bucs +4 v. Chargers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL Dog of the Week (Buccaneers +4) I'll gladly jump on the red-hot Bucs catching points against the Chargers. All Tampa Bay has done the last two weeks is go on the road and beat the Chiefs, who are 8-3, and dominate the Seahawks at home, who own the 2nd best record in the NFC. Those are the two games everyone is talking about, but they have actually been playing well going back even further, as they are 5-2 in their last 7. In those 5 wins, Tampa has held the opposition to 17 points or less. Playing on the road hasn't been an issue for the Bucs, who are 4-1 away from home this season. San Diego is better than their record, but are no longer underrated and have their flaws. The offense has stumbled a bit of late, scoring 24 or less in 3 of their last 4 and the defense has given up 27 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me Tampa Bay +4! |
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12-04-16 | Giants +6.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Giants +6.5) The public loves to back the Steelers and the books have definitely inflated this line to counter some of the action they know they are going to get on Pittsburgh. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Giants in this spot. New York isn't just capable of keeping this game close enough to cover, they can easily win this game outright. New York is playing with all kind of confidence right now, as they come into this game having won 6 straight and the pressure is on to keep winning with Dallas refusing to slip up. I really like the matchups for the Giants in this one. I think their front four can get pressure on Roethlisberger and they have the talent in the secondary to counter Pittsburgh's weapons at the skill positions. On the flip side of things, I don't think Pittsburgh has anyone in their secondary who can stop Odell Beckham Jr. Look for Manning to have a big game here and put the pressure on the Steelers at home. Give me the Giants +6.5! |
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12-04-16 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 41) Whenever the Ravens are involved there's typically going to be value on the UNDER and I think we are getting some here with Sunday's game at home against the Dolphins. Baltimore comes in ranked 2nd in total defense, allowing a mere 297.8 ypg. They are 2nd against the run (74.9 ypg) and 6th against the pass (222.9 ypg). We saw Miami's offense struggle in their last road game against the Rams, who are nearly as good as the Ravens. While Baltimore figures to keep Miami's offense in check, the Dolphins defense should be in store for a good game here. The Ravens are just limited offensively, as they can't get anything going on the ground and Flacco just isn't getting it done through the air. Baltimore has scored 21 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception during this stretch was a 28-point outburst against the awful Browns. Points are going to be a premium in this one Give me the UNDER 41! |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys -3 v. Vikings | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Cowboys -3) I'll gladly back Dallas as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Vikings. The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football of any team in the league, as they come in having won 9 straight and have proven themselves against quality teams. Minnesota on the other hand is on a free fall and are simply no where close to the team that started out 5-0, yet they are getting treated like it with this line. I know it's a big home game for the Vikings, but the offense is a complete mess and the defense hasn't been nearly as dominant as it was early in the year. Dallas' offensive line will be able to have their way here and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this one going away. Give me the Cowboys -3! |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -4 | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational ATS Blowout (Eagles -4) It's been a rough go of things for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense and I think it's going to get worse here against a stingy Eagles defense that is giving up just 9.5 ypg and are at their best against the pass, which is key here with Green Bay having zero threat of a running game. I know the Packers have put up 24+ points in 5 straight games, but a lot of those points have come playing catch up. They also have faced some pretty weak defenses of late. Their last 5 games have been against the Redskins, Titans, Colts, Falcons and Bears. Only Tennessee has a respectable defense of those and note they were up 35-16 going into the 4th quarter. Green Bay's also missing some huge pieces on defense. If this wasn't a Aaron Rodgers quarterbacked team that has a history of winning, this line would be closer to 7-points. Give me the Eagles -4! |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Broncos | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NFL Sunday Night Football ATS Knockout (Chiefs +3.5) I'll take my chances with KC on the road catching more than a field goal against the Broncos. The Chiefs had their 5-game losing streak snapped in a 17-19 home loss to the Bucs last week and I believe that will serve as a wake-up call. Let's not forget this Chiefs team has still won 17 of their last 20 regular season games. They also won 29-13 at Denver a year ago and went into Oakland and defeated the Raiders 26-10 earlier this season. The Broncos are extremely limited offensively and will be going up against a Chiefs defense that has held each of their last 6 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Denver has a great defense, but it's more built to stop teams who like to throw the ball. The Broncos are giving up 124 ypg on the ground and 4.4 yards/carry. The Chiefs have got away from the run the last few weeks, but I expect a full out attack on the ground here as they grind out a win on the road and stay in the race for the AFC West title. Give me Kansas City +3.5! |
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11-27-16 | Titans -5.5 v. Bears | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational ATS Blowout (Titans -5.5) I got no problem laying less than a touchdown on the road with Tennessee in this spot. With Jay Cutler doubtful with a shoulder injury and backup Brian Hoyer out indefinitely, the Bears are going to be forced to turn to Matt Barkley. That's a big problem for Chicago. Barkley played sparingly earlier this season and completed just 6 of 15 attempts for 81 yards with 2 interceptions. That’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the players that will be out for Chicago this weekend. Wide out Alshon Jeffery and linebacker Jerrell Freeman were both suspended 4 games and there’s a massive list of players who are questionable/doubtful to play. I don’t think it’s a mere coincidence that all these players all the sudden have an injury they are dealing with. I believe the players have quit on head coach John Fox and want nothing to do with playing this game. Tennessee still has a lot to play for. The Titans are still in the hunt in the AFC South and are going to be extremely motivated after losing last week to the Colts. Give me the Titans -5.5 |
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11-27-16 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 40.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
50* AFC North Total of the Month (Under 40.5) This has all the makings of a low-scoring AFC North defensive showdown. The Ravens only come in scoring 19.9 ppg and will struggle to score here against the Bengals. Cincinnati's season is on the line here and I expect an all out effort here from the defense, as the know they have to play well for them to have a chance in this game. That's because the offense is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cincinnati will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who is the one player this offense couldn't afford to lose and it's clear Dalton is not the same QB without him on the field. They also lost running back Giovani Bernard, who has been a big weapon for Dalton out of the backfield when he's under pressure. Even with those two, this offense figured to be in for a long day, as they are going up against an elite Ravens defense. Give me the UNDER 40.5! |
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11-24-16 | Steelers v. Colts UNDER 48 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 48) I just think we are getting too much value here to pass up on the UNDER with the total sitting at 48. The Colts are going to struggle to do much of anything offensively without Luck under center. Their only chance of keeping this game competitive is to try and get something going in the running game to control the time possession and keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense off the field. I also don't think people realize that Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road as it is at home. The Steelers are only averaging 18.8 ppg on the road this season. The Colts defense knows they have to play well here and playing at home in a prime time game should have them a notch or two better than what we would normally see on a given Sunday. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL Thanksgiving ATS Knockout (Cowboys -6.5) I've went against the Cowboys a few times and got burned. I'm not making that same mistake here. Dallas is an elite team and getting them at less than a touchdown at home is too good to pass up in my opinion. The perception here is that Washington's offense is going to have their way with Dallas' defense, but I'm not convinced that will be the case. What I am confident in, is that the Cowboys offensive line will be able to have their way with the Redskins defensive front and move the ball at will in this one. Dallas is the better team on both sides of the ball and should have no problem finishing off drives with touchdowns and not settling for field goals. Give me the Cowboys -6.5! |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans +6) I just don't think the Raiders are going to be able to continue to have the same success they have enjoyed earlier in the season. Oakland is getting treated like an elite team when they shouldn't be. They just as easily could be sitting with 6 losses, as they have had some great fortune in close games. I also don't trust their defense and it's only a matter of time before their inability to stop the opposition bites them. I believe it starts tonight against the Texans, who clearly are limited on the offensive side of the ball, but talented enough to take advantage of what Oakland will put out on the field. I know the Texans don't have J.J. Watt on defense, but I still like the talent on that side of the ball. Give me Houston +6! |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-27 | Loss | -123 | 89 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NFL Dog of the Week (Ravens +7.5) As hard as it may be going against the Cowboys, given they have covered in 8 straight games since losing their opener against the Giants at home. I just think this is too many points to pass up given the spot. Dallas is primed for a letdown in this one after that huge win over the Steelers and a big division game against the Redskins on deck next Thursday. Baltimore on the other hand is a team that is getting zero love, despite the fact that they are sitting on top the AFC North. I see this as a huge statement game for the Ravens. The biggest key here is Baltimore has the defense to give this Cowboys offense some trouble. The Ravens come in with the league's No. 1 ranked defense and are tops against the run and 5th against the pass. If you look over the Cowboys schedule to this point, you will see they have played a lot of bad defenses. The best defense they have faced is the Eagles and they should have lost that game. Baltimore has a way of hanging around and making games close. Give me the Ravens +7.5! |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars v. Lions -6.5 | 19-26 | Win | 101 | 89 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NFL Vegas Sharp Money ATS Blowout (Lions -6.5) I don't think the Lions are getting near enough respect here coming off their bye and playing at home against a Jaguars team that just looks like they are going through the motions after a extremely disappointing season. Jacksonville has lost 4 straight and even when they have played well they continue to find ways to lose. Detroit leads the NFC North, but no one wants to give this team any credit for it. I love teams like this, as they continue to feel like they have something to prove. I look for Stafford and the rest of the offense to have a field day here against the Jaguars defense. I know Jacksonville comes in having allowed just 24 to the Texans and 19 to the Chiefs in their last two games, but Houston is AWFUL offensively and KC was without Alex Smith and Spencer Ware. In the two games prior they gave up 36 to the Titans and 33 to the Raiders. I also think last week's game against the Texans felt like a must-win game to keep their season alive, so they are primed for a major letdown here. Give me the Lions -6.5! |
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11-20-16 | Bucs v. Chiefs -7.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -101 | 88 h 25 m | Show |
50* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month (Chiefs -7.5) I think we are going to get a breakout performance from the Chiefs at home against the Bucs on Sunday. While KC has won 5 straight, there's no denying they haven't played anywhere close to their potential the last two weeks against the Jaguars and Panthers. I believe the fact that the Chiefs have a tendency to win ugly has kept them from being overvalued, as I actually think they should be a bigger favorite than they are here. If the season ended today the Chiefs would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC and this line doesn't feel like they are getting treated with that kind of respect. Tampa Bay is not a good team and I look for them to come out flat after a comfortable 3-game homestand. This is also a great matchup for the Chiefs, as their defense should be able to give an inconsistent Jameis Winston trouble, especially with Justin Houston back in action. At the same time, KC's offense should be able to exploit a bad Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league against both the run and the pass. Chiefs are 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by nearly 10-ppg and I expect an easy double-digit win here. Give me Kansas City -7.5! |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL Over/Under Total Crusher (Under 52) I know it's only Week 11, but this has the feeling of a playoff game between these two division rivals. A loss for either team really puts them in a bad spot to make the playoffs, especially for the home team Panthers. I know these two combined for 79 points in the first meeting at New Orleans, but each of the last 3 games in the series at Carolina have all finished with fewer than 50 points. Both of these defenses have improved since the last time these two teams played. Saints are allowing just 22.7 ppg over their last 3 and the Panthers are giving up just 16.7 ppg in their last 3. Each team will be without their starting left tackle, which is going to slow down both offenses. I also think the Panthers are going to try to play ball control to keep the ball out of the hands of Brees and the Saints offense. Give me the UNDER 52! |
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11-14-16 | Bengals -1 v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Bengals -1) I just think this Bengals team is a lot better than they are getting credit for right now and the Giants aren't as good as what people make them out to be. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see the big money flip this line to Cincinnati as the 1-point favorite after the Giants opened as the favorite (public on NY). I look for the Bengals offense to have their way in this one, and while the defense hasn't played great, I feel like this is a great matchup, as New York offers almost no threat of a running game. On top of that, Cincinnati has a big edge here coming off their bye, giving them two weeks to put together a gameplan for Eli and OBJ. Give me the Bengals -1! |
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11-13-16 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 53 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Dolphins +4.5) I'll gladly back Miami here as a decently priced road dog against the Chargers. San Diego has covered 4 of their last 5 and the public has jumped on the bandwagon, which I believe has this line inflated. The Dolphins are playing their best football the season right now and that rushing attack proved to me it was real by putting up 137 yards on the Jets dominant run D last week. San Diego has serious injury problems at inside linebacker. They will be without their top 4 at the position, as two Te'o and Dzunbar are both on IR and Perryman and Brown are both out this week with injuries. San Diego also figures to be without one of their top options in the passing game, as Benjamin is doubtful. I'll ride the red-hot Dolphins with the points on Sunday. Give me Miami +4.5! |
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11-13-16 | Falcons v. Eagles +1.5 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NFL Week 10 Vegas Line Mistake (Eagles +1.5) I think it’s time to sell high on the Falcons and buy low on the Eagles. Atlanta has gone 6-3 ATS and 5-0 ATS on the road this season, which is certainly playing into this line. Philadelphia on the other hand has lost a lot of steam after their 3-0 start, as they are just 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. However, the big key here with the Eagles is all 4 losses during this stretch have come on the road against quality teams in the Lions, Redskins, Cowboys and Giants. Keep in mind they could have easily won all 4 of those games, as all 4 were decided by a touchdown or less. Now they return home where they are 3-0 and outscoring opponents by more than 20 ppg. The big key here is the Eagles have the talent defensively to keep this Falcons offense in check. Philadelphia ranks 6th in total defense and most importantly are 6th against the pass, giving up just 218.4 ypg. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 57.8% of their attempts against them. Give me Philadelphia +1.5! |
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11-13-16 | Packers -3 v. Titans | 25-47 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NFL No Doubt ATS Blowout (Packers -3) I know it hasn't been pretty for Green Bay and they come in off an ugly loss at home to the Colts, but I'm putting my trust in Aaron Rodgers to make sure they don't lose consecutive games. The Titans have been better than anticipated this season, but they are just 4-5 with two of their wins against the Browns and Jaguars. They also beat Miami before the Dolphins got things figured out. They have failed to deliver at home against good teams and I think those struggles continue here. Tennessee's offense is in for a long day after feasting on the bad defenses of the Browns, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers the last 4 games. Green Bay has delivered against teams who struggle at home, as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on the highway against teams with a losing home record. Give me Packers -3! |
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11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens -8 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
50* AFC North Game of the Month (Ravens -8) I'll gladly go against the public, which is backing the Browns at a near 60% clip. Cleveland has been competitive in a number of their games, but I'm confident this won't be one of them. Playing on short rest is a recipe for disaster for this Browns squad, who is one of the least talented teams in the NFL. While the Ravens have struggled to put away teams over the last couple of years, this is one team they can dominate from start to finish. Baltimore's defense is one of the best in the league and their offense is going to be able to move the ball against the Browns. I think this one could turn into one of the more lopsided affairs of the season. Give me the Ravens -8! |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Seahawks -6.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1.5 v. Raiders | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 59 m | Show | |
40* Sunday Night Football No Brainer (Broncos +1.5) I love the value here with Denver as a dog against the Raiders. I don't think Oakland is anywhere close to as good as their 6-2 record would indicate. They have benefited from playing a soft schedule early, as all 6 wins have come against teams who don't have a winning record. Their defense is atrocious and going to become a bigger and bigger problem as we get deeper in the season. I also don't think Carr is all he's made out to be and look for him to struggle big time here against the Broncos secondary, which I grade out as the best in the league, just ahead of Seattle. It's also important to note that Oakland has struggled to play well at home, which is another big key to my belief that they aren't as good as advertised. Keep in mind just a few weeks ago they got dominated at home by the Chiefs, losing 10-26 while getting outgained by KC 406 to 285. Good defense beats good offense the majority of the time and I expect it to hold true here. Give me Denver +1.5! |
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11-06-16 | Colts v. Packers OVER 54.5 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54.5) I believe we have a perfect recipe for a high-scoring game here, as we get two of the better quarterbacks in the league in Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers and neither has much of a running game they can rely on. Both come in throwing it about 62% of the time. That's going to keep the clock from running constantly and should lead to some big plays and quick scores. No real need to discuss how bad the Colts defense is, as it's clear they don't have the talent on that side of the ball and it's almost a given they struggle on the road, as they come in giving up 28.7 ppg and over 400 ypg. The key here is the Packers defense is built more for stopping the run and has struggled against the pass. They are giving up a 63% completion rate and 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They also remain thin in the secondary, corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall are both out, while corners Quinten Rollins, and Demetri Goodson are both questionable. Let's also not forget that Luck and the Colts just got a big weapon back last week in Donte Moncrief. Give me the OVER 54.5! |
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11-06-16 | Panthers v. Rams +3 | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL Dog of the Week (Rams +3) The betting public is all over the Panthers here and it's creating some great value with the Rams catching a field goal at home. I'm not buying Carolina being completely back to the same team they were last year after one win at home against the Cardinals. They caught Arizona in a great spot after that game against Seattle and that felt like a must win after losing their previous 4. Now it's the Rams in a must-win spot, after they lost their last 3 and we get them off a bye, so they have had two weeks to prepare. I believe the difference in this one is going to be the Rams defensive line against a injury riddled Carolina o-line that will be without starting left tackle Michael Oher and potentially starting center Ryan Kalil. This is also a tough spot for the Panthers in terms of traveling across the country, as this is their first game this season on the west coast. Fisher is 12-3 ATS as a head coach against the NFC South and the Rams are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are strong against the run (allowing 3.5 or fewer yards/carry). Give LA +3! |
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11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs +4 | 43-28 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie Crusher (Bucs +4) I like the Bucs at home catching points. I don't believe Julio Jones is 100%, so while he's playing he's going to be limited. Atlanta is also going to without Jacob Tamme and Tevin Coleman. This is also a tough spot, going on the road with short rest off a huge win at home over the Packers. This Bucs teams has been up and down, but let's not forget they took it to the Falcons in Atlanta earlier this season. I expect a close division game that comes down to wire, making the 4-points too much to pass up on the home team. Give me the Bucs +4! |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | 10-20 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster MNF ATS Annihilator (Vikings -4) I just don't see how you trust the Bears in this spot, as the Vikings are clearly the better team and will be 100% locked in coming off their first loss of the season and playing on Monday Night Football. The Bears will be getting back Jay Cutler, which I think is keeping this line a lot lower than it should be, but I'm not so sure Cutler doesn't make the Bears worse. Either way, I don't see Cutler being able to do anything here against this elite Minnesota defense. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 24+ ppg and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who are averaging 260+ passing/yards game. Give me the Vikings -4! |
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10-30-16 | Raiders v. Bucs +1 | 30-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie ATS Knockout (Bucs +1) Oakland bounced back last week with a blowout win at Jacksonville, but I believe that only adds to the value we are getting with Tampa Bay at basically a pick’em at home. They didn’t dominate as much as you might think given they won 33-16. They were actually dead even in total yards at 344 and only had 21 first downs to the Jaguars 19. Oakland still ranks dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 430.4 ypg. The secondary is an absolute disaster, allowing a league-worst 302.1 ypg and a staggering 8.2 yards/pass attempt. The big key here is that Jameis Winston should have a field day against this Raiders secondary. Note that in games this season when he throws for 2 or more touchdowns, Tampa Bay is averaging 32.3 ppg. This is also a really tough spot for Oakland. They are certainly feeling good about themselves sitting at 5-2 on top the AFC West and could find it hard to not look ahead to next week’s huge showdown at home against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. This is also the second straight week the Raiders will be traveling across the country for an early start time on the east coast. Give me Tampa Bay +1! |
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10-30-16 | Lions v. Texans -2.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NFL Vegas Line Mistake (Texans -2.5) I like the value we are getting with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Lions. Detroit's not known for being a great road team and I think Houston is undervalued in this one coming off that ugly showing at Denver on Monday Night Football. I certainly don't think the Texans are legit threat in the AFC, but they also aren't a terrible team by any means. They simply have been outclassed by the elite teams. Their 3 losses have come against the Patriots, Vikings and Broncos, all on the road. They are 4-0 at home with wins over the Chiefs, Titans and Colts. Key here is that Osweiler should be able to have a strong day throwing the ball, as the Lions secondary is one of their weaker units. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 74.2% of their passes against them. The most telling sign of their secondary is the fact that they let Case Keenum go 27 of 32 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns against them on their home field. Give me the Texans -2.5! |
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10-30-16 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
50* NFL AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) Kansas City is quietly sitting 3rd in the AFC West at 4-2 and I just don't think this team gets the respect they deserve. I actually think once they get back Justin Houston, which could be as soon as next week, they are going to prove to be the best team in the division. All the Chiefs have done since Andy Reid took over is go 36-21 in the regular season and come into this one having won 14 of their last 16. The offense is starting to come alive, as Alex Smith is starting to stretch the field more with talented rookie wide out Tyreek Hill, who might be the fastest player in the NFL. Reminds me a lot of DeSean Jackson when Reid was with the Eagles. Defensively the Chiefs do give up some yards, but they do a good job of forcing turnovers and not letting opposing teams turn those yards into points. I just don't trust this Colts team against what I consider to be top level teams, as they just aren't that talented outside of Luck and some quality receivers. Reid has gone 32-16 ATS when his teams are on the road against a team with a losing record and are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when coming into a game after posting a turnover margin of +1 or better in 2 straight games. Give me KC -2.5! |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 44 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) I believe we are going to see a sloppy low-scoring game on Thursday Night Football, as the Titans host the Jaguars. Both of these offenses are struggling to consistently put up points. Tennessee comes into this game 20.9 ppg and Jacksonville is even worse at 19.5 ppg. What a lot of people don't realize with these two teams is they are solid on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans are 10th in total defense and the Jaguars are 9th. Unless we get a lot of turnovers and short fields, I think this one stays well under the mark. Note that 4 of the last 5 in the series have seen a combined score of 36 or less. Give me the UNDER 44! |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
50* MNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 40.5) I think both of these offenses are going to have a horrible time trying to sustain drives and finish them off with points. The Broncos are going to make life absolutely miserable for Brock Osweiler and I expect Houston to try and counter that by running Lamar Miller as much as possible. As for the Denver offense, I think they too could find it hard here. The Broncos could be without both starting offensive tackles and without those two the offensive line is in really bad shape. Even if they play, I think both could struggle to contain Houston's solid pass rushing duo of Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. Like the Texans, Denver is going to look to run the ball early and often. It won't quite be the defensive battle that we saw last night with Seattle and Arizona, but I don't think it's too far behind. Give me the UNDER 40.5! |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 6-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
50* SNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 44) I'm expecting an old-school defensive battle on Sunday Night Football between the Seahawks and Cardinals. This is a huge game for both teams. Seattle knows they can take complete control of the NFC West with a win here and winning the division and getting home field in the playoffs is critical for this team. Arizona on the other hand has to have this game to keep their hopes alive of defending as division champs. Both offenses have been hit or miss this season, but defensively both have been sharp. Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense, ranking in the top 5 against both the run and the pass. Arizona is 4th in total defense. While they are 17th against the run, they come in at No. 3 against the pass, which is key here against Seattle. A lot of people think the Seahawks are more of a run team than they are. Seattle is 24th in rushing compared to 9th in passing, so this is clearly a good matchup for the Cardinals. Give me the UNDER 44! |
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10-23-16 | Ravens v. Jets -2 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (Jets -2) The public wants nothing to do with this Jets team, who is 1-5 and will be starting Geno Smith at quarterback. I actually like the move, as things just weren't clicking with Fitzpatrick. All the negative talk with New York has people overlooking how bad a shape the Ravens are in. Baltimore has been absolutely decimated with injuries to key players and I think we are going to see a spirited effort here from the Jets at home. Their playoff hopes are slim, but they are far from throwing in the towel. I also think they are better than people think, as they have played about as hard as schedule as you could of had to start a season. Give me the Jets -2! |
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10-23-16 | Colts +3.5 v. Titans | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NFL Dog of the Week (Colts +3.5) I think we are getting some great value here with the Colts catching a field goal, plus the hook against the Titans. The perception on Indianapolis is as bad as it's been in quite some time with Luck at quarterback. The public simply doesn't trust this team, especially after last week's collapse against the Texans, where they blew a 23-9 lead with less than 3 minutes to play. The key thing here is while the Colts aren't a great team, they are better than what people think. They could easily be 5-1 right now, as they have either had the lead or a had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minutes of every game. Colts have won 9 straight in this series and I'm counting on them to make it 10 in a row. Give me the Colts +3.5! |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers -7.5 | 10-26 | Win | 104 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
40* NFL Bears/Packers ATS Knockout (Packers -7.5) I'm just not buying the Bears going into Lambeau and making this a game. I know all the injuries that Green Bay is dealing with, but they still have Aaron Rodgers and are one of the better coached teams in the league. Not to mention they are going to be looking to make a statement off that ugly home loss to the Cowboys and all the negative publicity that's been hovering over this team. I expect Green Bay to really dominate this one in all phases. I look for the defense to force the Bears into a lot of bad spots by taking away the running game and Chicago's secondary is one that Rodgers and company can exploit for big plays. Give me Green Bay -7.5! |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NFL Vegas Sharp Money No Brainer (Chiefs -1) A lot of people were on the Raiders bandwagon before the season starter and it’s only got bigger after their 4-1 start. While it’s all about wins and losses, I’m not buying Oakland being able to maintain this pace going forward. The Raiders have 3 wins by 3-points or less and the other being a 7-point win over Tennessee which was far from a dominant showing. This team could just as easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. I just don’t trust teams that don’t play any defense. Oakland is dead last in the NFL is total defense. They rank 27th against the run and 32nd against the pass. I know the Chiefs offense has struggled, but they have played 3 teams that ranked inside the Top 10 in against the run.KC's offense is built around heir running game and they should have no problem getting it going here against the Raiders.The biggest key here is the Chiefs are coming off their bye week. Andy Reid is 15-2 SU as a head coach off a bye week. This is a statement game for KC off that ugly showing against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football and I think they deliver with a big road win over their rivals. Give me the Chiefs -1! |
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10-16-16 | Panthers -2.5 v. Saints | 38-41 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NFL Week 6 Vegas Line Mistake (Panthers -2.5) Carolina will be getting back both Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart, which is huge against this awful Saints defense. The Panthers are being way undervalued here due to the fact that they are just 1-4, but this is still a very talented team. We are also seeing a low number here with the Saints coming off a bye, but the extra time off isn't going to magically make the Saints defense any better. Newton and the Panthers are going to whatever they want offensively and I believe the defense is going to make enough stops here to secure the win. Carolina is 6-1 ATS in Newton's 7 career starts against teams who have won 20% to 30% of their games, 33-16 ATS in their last 49 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 and the Saints are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games off a win by 3 points or less. Give me the Panthers -2.5! |
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10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
50* NFL *AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR* (Over 47.5) I believe we just got a glimpse of what this Patriots offense is capable of doing in last week's game against the Browns. Had it not been the Browns, who aren't believed to be a good defensive team, this total would be much higher. Last time these two teams played, Brady and the Patriots put up 43 points on the Bengals back in 2014 and Cincinnati's defense is no where near as talented right now as it was two years ago. I know Cincinnati's offense hasn't been great, but I think they are going to have some success moving the ball here. New England's defense has put up solid numbers, but it's helped that 4 of their 5 games have come against the Dolphins, Texans, Bills and Browns. The Bengals have the most talented offense they have faced since the Cardinals in Week 1 and they allowed 21 in that game. I think this one easily gets past 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) My money is on the UNDER in tonight's AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Broncos. It's no secret that Denver's defense is legit and we know they are going to show up after a not so great showing last week at home against the Falcons. The Chargers defense hasn't looked great, but I think playing at home in this spot is going to bring out the best of them. I also think Denver's offense is a bit limited. Even more so tonight, without head coach Gary Kubiak, who is an excellent playcaller. The offensive line has also not been great of late and starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is playing hurt. You also have to take into account the last two meetings in San Diego have been low-scoring, both games finishing with 32 or less points. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Chargers last 12 home games after the first month of the season and 16-4 in their last 20 after gaining 350 or more passing yards in their previous game. Take the UNDER 44! |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 45.5) The fact that Cam Newton isn't playing is going to have a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in this game, but I'm focusing more on what these two defenses will look like. Carolina let one of their starting corners go and the other is hurt. Jameis Winston and his weapons in the passing game are going to be able to pick up some big plays down the field. As for Tampa Bay's defense they are expected to be without both starting defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald and potentially starting defensive end Robert Ayers (questionable). Keep in mind they are already minus three other defensive ends who were expected to contribute in Noah Spence, George Johnson and Jacquies Smith. Not only do I think both offenses have success here, but I think we also get a few turnovers that lead to quick scores and push this past the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 45.5! |