Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs had a very long layoff before Game 1. So, its not surprising that they were a bit rusty. That won't be an issue in Game 2 though. Down a game, we're going to see the Warriors' very best. The Raptors have been impressive in these playoffs. However, they rarely do anything the 'easy' way. Off a big win in Game 1, we can expect them to have their hands full in this one. Kawhai has been outstanding throughout the playoffs but he's battling a nagging injury and was noticably hobbling at times in Game 1. Siakam was the difference in Game 1. However, with the Warriors adjusting (probably a lot more Green on him) he's highly unlikely to match that effort in Game 2. The Warriors are 32-11 SU their last 43 when off a road loss. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 108 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State/Toronto OVER the total. While I won with the Raptors 'under' the total on Saturday, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair for Game 1 of the Finals. When the Raptors hosted the Warriors in the reg. season, the teams combined for a whopping 259 points. Sure, that one did go to OT. However, they still had 238 in regulation. Last year's meeting here was also very high-scoring, the teams combining for 252 points. The year before? They scored 248 points. The champs have seen the OVER go 3-1 the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. The OVER is 6-2 when the Raptors were off b2b wins of six or fewer points. Look for both teams to put up a big number, the OVER improving to 7-3 the Warriors' last 10 games in the Finals. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After dominating the Pistons and the Celtics, perhaps the Bucks weren't quite ready for the type of street-fight that the Raptors were going to give them. I still think they're the more talented team though and they've had five games to get used to the Raptors intensity. Facing elimination for the first time, I expect Antekoumpo and co. to be at their very best. The Bucks did win here back in January, so they know that they can win in this building. They held Toronto to just 92 points in that game. The Raptors got a huge game from Van Fleet on Thursday; thats unlikely to happen again. Brogdon moved back into the starting lineup in Game 5. Thats a big help for Giannis as it gives them another ball handler. Bledsoe had been playing poorly on offense but was better in Game 5, scoring 20 points. A week ago, everyone was counting out the Raptors and I said not to do so. Now, I'm saying, don't count out the Bucks. This series is going the distance. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing Milwaukee/Toronto UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' last game and I'm expecting another defensive affair in Game 6. Three of the five games have produced 208 or fewer combined points in regulation. The Raptors have now held Milwaukee to 99, 102 and 96 points, in regulation, the past three games. The Bucks know that they need to get back to the type of defense that limited Toronto to 100, 103 and 96 regulation points the first three games. Note that when they won here in the regular season, the limited the Raptors to 92 points. Last time that they were playing at home with a chance to close out a series, the Raptors won 92-90 over Philly. In fact, the Raptors have allowed 104 or fewer regulation points in all nine of their home playoff games. Look for nothing to come easy in this one, the final combined score again falling below the total. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Milwaukee UNDER the total. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game slide, the Bucks responded by holding the Pacers to 98 points, a game which fell below the total. Off b2b losses, I expect the Bucks to again elevate their defensive intensity. The UNDER is 4-2 when the Bucks were off a double-digit loss. The UNDER is also 16-11 when the Bucks were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. As for the Raptors, they've seen the UNDER go 5-2 the last seven times that they were tied in a playoff series, 3-1 in this year's postseason. Game 3 and Game 7 against Philly both stayed below the total. Game 5 finished over but by less than a bucket. Game 3 against the Magic also stayed below the number. Look for plenty of defensive intensity in this one, the final combined score falling beneath the number. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully backed the Raptors in both their wins at Toronto. So, I'm not at all surprised that the series is tied. That said, playing at home, I expect the Bucks to take this pivotal game. The Bucks earned the right to play Game 5 (and Game 7, if necessary) here at Milwaukee by being the best team all season. Even off their Game 4 loss, they're still 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS when off a loss. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game skid, they responded with a 19-point win over Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 points. They're 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) after having lost two of their last three. The Raptors are an exhausted team as they fought a lot harder to get here than Milwaukee did and as they're starters are logging heavy minutes. The home crowd in Toronto helped provide energy but they won't have that going for them here. The Bucks won the first two games here by eight and 22 points. Expect more of the same Thursday. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Raptors in Game 3 and I'm coming right back with them in Game 4. In Game 3, the Raptors were favored. Now, we're getting them as underdogs. While I do expect an outright win, that's definitely some added value. Yes, I'm aware that Milwaukee was great off a loss in the regular season. However, this is a whole different situation. The Bucks had their chance to knock the Raptors out. If they'd won on Sunday and went up 3-0, the series was finished. They probably would have go on to sweep and that would have likely ended the Kawai ere in Toronto. That didn't happen though and the resilient Raptors now have life and momentum. They did an amazing job on Antetokounmpo, as he was 5-16 before fouling out. Losing Lowry, who fouled out in the fourth, was a huge blow for the Raptors, particularly on a night where guys like Green and Van Fleet were really struggling with their shot. To survive that and win without Lowry is going to be really good for this team. I expect Kawai and Lowry to get more help from their secondary players in this one, leading to another Raptors win. |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State/Portland OVER the total. Saturday's game was on pace to go over at the half but things slowed down in the second half. At least, for Portland. The Blazers managed a mere 33 points in the second half. While that Warrior win essentially ended the series, I don't expect the Blazers to just roll over in Game 4. If they're going to go down, they're going to go down firing. Lillard is reportedly playing through an injury which may well be part of the reason for his struggles. Assuming he plays (currently listed as probable) I still expect him to be better here though. Ditto for McCollum. Look for the Blazers guards to rebound with a better effort and for them to keep scoring into the second half this time. The addition of Meyers Leonard into the starting unit helped the offense. Of course, the Warriors are going to smell the blood in the water and are going to put up a big number. They've scored 110 or more in all three games and could have scored more if they'd needed. They've hit triple-digits in scoring in 25 straight games now. The OVER is 4-2 the past six times that they were up 3-0 in a series and the OVER is also 3-0 the last three times that the champs were trying to close out a series. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors embarrassed themselves in Game 2. Back home, I expect an extremely determined effort on Sunday. This is a battle-tested Toronto team. It wasn't long ago that the Raptors were off their huge Game 7 win against Philly. Then, they almost stole Game 1 of this series. One bad game doesn't make them a bad team. The Raptors have still won five of six (and eight of their last 10) here at home. The Raptors are also a perfect 4-0 SU when off a road loss of 20 or more points, 1-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs. They still believe that they can win this series. While that remains to be seen, I fully expect them to take Game 3, covering the small number along the way. |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Warriors have treated me well since Durant went down. I won with them in their Game 6 close-out victory at Houston. (I also won with them in Game 1 of this series. Last game, I won with the total and didn't play the side.) Tonight, however, I expect Durant's absence to finally catch up with them. The Blazers have been a very resilient team these entire playoffs and they're not going to go down without a fight. With the Game 2 cover, the Blazers are 3-0 ATS when trailing in these playoffs. They're also 33-23 ATS (45-11 SU) when they were favored. Additionally, they're 5-1 SU/ATS off two or more consecutive road lossses. While the Warriors are a very solid 31-16 on the road, the Blazers are an even better 37-10 here at home. They beat the Warriors by 22 points the last meeting here. Expect them to play with desperation and for them to finish on top once again. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Milwaukee OVER the total. The Bucks had some early rust in Game 1 and that led to a low-scoring first half. They got going in the second half but it wasn't quite enough to send the final score over the total. I expect a fast pace right from the opening tip in Game 2. Even with the Game 1 result, the Raptors have still seen the OVER go 6-2 the past eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. While the Bucks managed 'only' 108 in the opener, they'd scored 113 or more in 15 of their previous 16 games. In looking at the regular season, both meetings at Toronto were low-scoring. However, the two games here at Milwaukee produced 233 and 239 points. Expect plenty of points again in this one. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/GSW OVER the total. After a relatively slow start, the offenses got rolling by the fourth quarter of Game 1. While it wasn't enough to send the final score over the total, I do expect that faster tempo and hot shooting to carry over into Game 2. The Blazers employ a type of defense that plays right into the Warriors' hands. They like to drop Kanter and their other bigs in pick-and-roll situations. That makes scoring in the paint more difficult but it also allows guys like Curry and Thompson a lot of open looks from beyond the arc. Needless to say, if you give those guys an open 3-pointer, they're going to make you pay. While Curry and co. should have another big game, Lillard and McCollum are likely going to shoot better than they did in the opener. The pair of Portland guards were a combined 11-of-31, for just 36 points. The Blazers have seen the OVER go 11-6 the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss by 20 or more points. With the OVER also 7-1 the past eight times that the champs were leading in a playoff series, expect plenty of points on Thursday. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Toronto OVER the total. I won with the Raptors 'under' the total in their Game 7 win over Philly. So, I'm well aware that they've been playing great defense. The Bucks are a different beast though. Slowing down Embid was one thing but slowing down Antekoumpo will prove far more difficult. The Celtics were supposed to be a good defensive team yet the Bucks put up 123, 123, 113 and 116 in the last four games of that series. In fact, they've scored 113 or more in 15 of their last 16 games. Both meetings at Toronto were low-scoring. However, the two games here at Milwaukee produced 233 and 239 points. Look for another high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 11-6 when Raptors were listed as road underdogs. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. As you likely saw, the Raptors are off a thrilling Game 7 win against the 76ers. That was an extremely hard-fought and emotional series and I feel that the Raptors may experience a slight letdown in Wednesday's series opener with the Bucks. Unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is very well rested. The Bucks have been winning big these entire playoffs. They're 8-1 SU/ATS overall. All eight victories came by a minimum of seven points. Seven came by double-digits. The Bucks took three of four regular season meetings, two of their three wins coming by double-digits. Catching the Raptors off perhaps their biggest win in franchise history, I like the Bucks to pull away for another double-digit win here. |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -8 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As of this writing, Durant remains doubtful for this game. However, his absence didn't stop me from successfully backing the champs in their Game 6 win at Houston and it won't keep me from backing them here. That Game 6 victory was huge for the Warriors. Not only did they prove again that they could win without KD but it also gave them some extra time to rest, recover and prepare for Portland. Thats a luxury which the Blazers don't have, as they're fresh off a gritty Game 7 win at Denver on Sunday afternoon. That series was extremely hard-fought and I feel that it will take a toll on the Blazers. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by double-digits. I expect the combination of the extra rest and homecourt advantage to prove the difference, Curry and co. pulling away for another double-digit win. |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philly/Toronto UNDER the total. I won with the 76ers last game after winning with the 'over' in Game 5. I'm expecting Game 7 to be a defensive battle though. The Raptors held the 76ers to 89 points the last game here. Ever since losing the first game of these playoffs to Orlando, they've elevated their defensive intensity, particularly here at home. Toronto has seen eight of 11 playoff games overall stay below the total. Philly, meanwhile, has seen the UNDER go 7-4 in its playoff games. The 76ers have also seen the UNDER go 4-0 when off a double-digit win in a game where they were underdogs. Expect those stats to improve here, nothing coming easy and the final combined score staying below the number. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Denver UNDER the total. While this has been a high-scoring series, I'm expecting defense to take center stage on Sunday afternoon. In an elimination game for both teams, nothing is going to come easy. The Nuggets have already hosted a Game 7 in these playoffs. That game (against San Antonio on 4/27) had an O/U line of 207.5. Yet the teams combined for just 176 points, Denver winning 90-86. The Blazers have seen the UNDER go 14-8 their last 22 when off a home win against a divisional opponent. With the UNDER also a healthy 8-3 when the Nuggets are playing with two day's rest in between games, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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05-10-19 | Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Obviously, the loss of Durant is a huge blow. Prior to the injury, he was on track to being the playoff MVP. That said, the Warriors are still fully capable of winning without him. Thompson finally got going last game. Curry started slow but also got going when they needed him. Don't forget that Green (and perhaps others) would love to show that they don't need Durant to win. You may recall Green previously saying something along the lines of this to Durant: "You're a b***h and you know you’re a b***h ... We don't need you. We won without you. Leave." Eight straight meetings between these teams have been decided by six or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Raptors were dominant in Game 5, I expect the 76ers to bounce back big in Game 6. The Raptors are just 12-16-1 ATS as road favorites. That includes a 4-9-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or fewer points. Its also worth noting that Toronto is just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times it was off a home win vs. a divisional opponent. While the Raptors have a fairly impressive 29-16 record on the road overall, the 76ers are a much better 34-12 at home. They're 30-16 ATS the past 2+ seasons as home underdogs, 19-11 ATS as home underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 10-3-1 ATS after scoring 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the 76ers are 13-4 ATS their last 17, when off a road loss against a divisional opponent. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark their last six in that situation. Expect Philly to bounce back, sending the series back to Toronto for Game 7. |
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05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Rockets in Game 3 and Game 4. I backed them in Game 3 as I really didn't expect them to just roll over. Off the OT win in Game 3, I liked their momentum for Game 4. However, we're back at Oracle now and I expect the champs to remind everyone that they're still the best in the West. The Rockets are 23-22 away from Houston. The Warriors are 31-13 at home. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS their last four, when tied in a playoff series. They're also 5-2 ATS their last seven (6-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge - 2 straight losses against the same opponent. Expect a statement victory. |
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05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 211.5 | Top | 89-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing Philadelphia/Toronto OVER the total. I've lost a couple of times with totals in this series. However, that won't prevent me from grabbing the value with the 'over' here. Consider that the O/U line was 223 when these teams started this series and the O/U lines in the reg. season were as high as 229.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower number here. Philadelphia road games are still averaging 225.7 points. Toronto home games are still averaging 220.1 points. The previous time when these teams were tied in this series (Game 3) they combined for 211 points. However, that one was on pace to be much higher-scoring until the Raptors completely stopped scoring in the fourth. They're not going to stop scoring in this one. Expect both teams to push the tempo and this game to be the highest scoring of the series. |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -125 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I won with the Rockets in Game 3. As you likely know, that one went to OT. Many will feel that the Rockets were fortunate to win and are going to back the champs to bounce back. Thats led to even better value on the Rockets. I look at it the opposite way. Yes, the Warriors had a chance to win Game 3. Had they done so, the series would have been essentially finished. They squandered that opportunity though and now they're in for a battle. The Rockets, who are now more confident that know that they can actually beat the Warriors, are 5-1 ATS their last six, when playing the fourth game of a series. That includes a win at Golden State in last years' series; like this year, the Rockets were also trailing 2-1 at the time. While the Warriors are 30-15 on the road, the Rockets are 35-10 at home. Expect homecourt to again prove the difference. |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -120 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -120 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Bucks in Game 2 and Game 3. So, I'm not at all surprised that they're leading the series. That said, I expect the Celtics to be at their very best for Game 4. The Celtics are still 30-14 at home. The Celtics are 9-4 ATS off a home loss, 7-3 ATS off a home loss in which they were favored. They won Game 4 of their first series by 23 points. Even after dropping the last two, the Celtics are still 10-5 ATS their last 15 second round playoff games. They're experienced and well-coached. Look for their playoff experience to make the difference here, as they make the necessary adjustments, dig deep, and even up the series. |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Philadelphia OVER the total. With the first three games of this series all finishing below the number, we're getting a lower total to work with. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Game 3 was on pace to finish well above the total until Toronto stopped scoring in the fourth. Now trailing in the series, the Raptors are going to fight until the final seconds of this one. That doesn't mean that they'll be able to stop the stars of the 76ers though, who finally showed up last game. The Raptors, who find themselves listed as small favorites, have seen the OVER go 9-5 when listed as road favorites of six or fewer points. The OVER is also 13-5 when the Raptors played with revenge from a game where their opponent scored 110 or more points. With the OVER also 9-4 the last 13 times that the 76ers were off two or more consecutive 'upset' wins, expect plenty of points in this one. |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets played the Warriors tough at Oracle, losing by four and six points. Back on their home floor, desperate for a win, I expect them to break through with a win and cover. While the Warriors are an excellent 30-14 on the road, the Rockets are an even better 34-10 at home. The Warriors haven't missed Cousins yet but I expect his absence to be felt here. The Rockets beat the Jazz by 59 combined points in the three games here in the first round. While they've now lost their last three against the champs, the Rockets are 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when facing a team which has defeated them in the previous three meetings. They're 8-1-1 ATS (9-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge, going 25-10-2 ATS (30-7 SU) in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to elevate their level of play en route to a critical win and cover. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks +2 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks in Game 2 (after nailing the Under in Game 1) and I'm coming right back with them again on Friday. While the Celtics are surely happy to be home, the Bucks have no problem playing on the road. In fact, they're 29-14 (26-15-2 ATS) when playing away from Milwaukee. The Bucks have no problem playing here at Boston, either. Their last visit here resulted in a 120-107 victory. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics, who got blown out in Game 2, are just 5-15 ATS when off a road loss. That includes a 1-6 ATS mark when off a double-digit road loss. The Bucks made the necessary adjustments after the opener and Antetokounmpo returned to his usual self (29/10) in Game 2. The Celtics aren't going to have any answer for him here. I'll grab the points but expect the Bucks to win outright. |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 214 | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Philly OVER the total. I won with the 'under' in the first game of this series. That O/U line was 223.5. I won with the 76ers in the second game of the series but stayed off the total. That game had an O/U line of 220, also staying below the number. With the first two games both staying 'under' the total, we're getting an even lower O/U line for Game 3. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Raptors have been underdogs 15 times this season. Ten of those 15 scores finished above the total. Its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 9-2 when the Raptors attempted to avenge a home loss, 17-7 when they were in the revenge role overall. While Raptor road games are averaging 221.4 ppg, Philly home games are averaging 228.9 ppg. Toronto's two visits here this season produced 226 and 227 combined points. Last season's two visits here produced 228 and 223 points. Look for the offenses to come alive, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While I won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series, I'm backing the Bucks in Game 2. The Celtics did an excellent job of slowing down Antetokounmpo in the opener. Obviously, that was great for me. Don't expect the Greek Freak to stay silent though. Giannis has been a monster all year and is off a first round series which saw him average 26.3 ppg and 12 rebounds, while also adding 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. Those stats would have even been better if the Bucks didn't win those games by such a wide margin. The Bucks have been amazing at bouncing back from losses all season long. They're 21-1 SU and 18-4 ATS off a loss. The only time that they lost two in a row all season was when they were right at the end of a road trip. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when off a double-digit loss and a 15-3 ATS mark when off an upset loss overall. With the Celtics just 7-13 ATS after playing two or more consecutive road games, look for Giannis and the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments, leading them to a convincing win and cover for Game 2. |
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04-29-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'm well aware that the Raptors have historically fared very well at home against the 76ers. However, thats not enough to prevent me from backing Philly in Game 2. The 76ers have arguably as much talent as any team in the league. After dropping Game 1, I expect their stars to rise to the occasion here. The 76ers also dropped Game 1 of their opening series. They won Game 2 by more than 20, putting up a whopping 145 points. Even with their victory on Saturday, the Raptors are still just 2-6-1 ATS (1-8 SU!) their last nine second round playoff games. While the Raptors are 4-7 ATS off a divisional win and 2-5 ATS off a home divisional win, the 76ers are 8-1 ATS their last nine off a divisional loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS off a divisonal road loss. While an outright upset won't surprise, I'm grabbing the points! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Milwaukee UNDER the total. Though I did win with the 'over' in their last game, the Celtics defense was dominant in the opening round. They started that series with an 84-74 victory and held the Pacers to double-digits in three of the four games. Of course, the Bucks are a better team than the Pacers and will be harder to stop. That's factored into the line though, as we're working with a much higher O/U number. The Bucks were also very stingy in the opening round. They held the Pistons to 104 or fewer points in all four games, an average of just 98. Boston's last two visits to Milwaukee had final scores of 98-97 and 97-86. Including the 2/21 game (98-97) here, the UNDER is a perfect 3-0 when the Celtics were road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. With the UNDER also a perfect 4-0 when the Bucks were playing with three or more day's rest, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors -14 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Since the Clippers came back to shock them in Game 2, the champs have been on a mission. They won Game 3 and Game 4 by a combined 35 points. With a chance to close out the series here, I expect them to be all business right from the opening tip. Despite blowing the cover in Game 4, the Warriors remain a dominant 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) their last 41 first round playoff games. In other words, when they win in the first round, they almost always cover. The Clippers are just 6-10 ATS off a home loss. Going back further finds them at an ugly 19-29 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors won Game 1 here by 17. Before their meltdown in Game 2, they were on pace for another decisive win and cover. That meltdown will ensure that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Expect them to advance to the next round in blowout fashion. |
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04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 212 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Houston OVER the total. The Jazz stayed alive last game, sending the series back to Houston. The Rockets scored at will in the first two games here, putting up 118 and 122 points. While the last game stayed below the number, the OVER is still 3-1 the past four times that the Jazz were facing elimination. During that span, the OVER is also 2-0 when Utah was off a win of 15 or more points, when listed as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Rockets have seen the OVER go 7-2 when playing with revenge from a loss where they were listed as a road favorite. Expect plenty of points, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons +12 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. Needless to say, Milwaukee has dominated this series. That said, I don't expect Detroit to just quit and feel that this line is too high. Down 3-0, we saw the Pacers battle until the end against Boston yesterday. The Celtics won by four. The Pistons will also fight hard the entire way. The Pistons are still 26-16 on this floor, not much different from Milwaukee's 28-14 road record. Griffin returned in Game 3 and played well; he just didn't get much help. Coach Casey commented: "That young man is giving us everything he has. He said he was feeling good. I was concerned about his conditioning with as much time as he's missed. You can't really simulate 5-on-5 basketball when you're rehabbing. But he came in and gave us what he could. He just has a presence that we can't replicate." While the Bucks did win the last one here by 16, the two regular season games here were decided by 10 and three points. Expect this one to be closer, the Pistons not making it easy and ultimately covering the generous number. |
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 207 | Top | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Orlando OVER the total. With the first three games of this series all staying below the number, we're working with a much lower O/U line for Game 4. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that two previous 2019 meetings, prior to these playoffs, had O/U lines of 216.5. Those games finished with 211 and 230 points, respectively. Toronto road games are still averaging 222.1 ppg. Orlando home games are still averaging 216.9 ppg. The OVER is 6-4 when the Magic were off three or more consec. games which stayed below the total. The OVER is also 9-3 when the Raptors were road favorites of -6 or less. With the OVER also at 25-13-2 the past 40 times that Toronto was off b2b victories, look for the offenses to come alive in this one. |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -103 | 57 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. After dropping both games at Houston, the Jazz have now lost four of their last five overall. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those losses came on the road. The lone home game resulted in a double-digit win over Denver. Indeed, this team is much better on its home floor. While the Rockets are 22-19 on the road, the Jazz are 29-12 at home. Note that they're also 5-1 SU/ATS after having lost four of their previous five. Both Utah's losses at Houston came by 20 or more points. Thats only happened twice the past 2+ seasons, situations where the Jazz were off b2b losses of 20 or more. In both cases, they won and covered their next one. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Saturday. |
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04-19-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -7 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Blazers took both games at Portland. Playing at home, desperate for a win, I expect the Thunder to respond with their best effort in Game 3. Note that they're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off b2b losses against a divisional opponent. While the Blazers are very tough to beat at home, they're mediocre on the road. They're also 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 +12 range. The Thunder are 27-14 at home. They won both regular season meetings here. Scores were 120-111 and 123-114. When Nurkic went down a few weeks ago, it was a big blow to the Blazers, as he'd been playing great. To their credit, the Blazers haven't missed a beat. Kanter has proven to be a key pickup. That said, I feel that the Nurkic loss will eventually catch up with them and I say that happens here. Expect Adams to get the better of Kanter, his former teammate, the rest of the Thunder digging deep and improving to 11-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/LA UNDER the total. Off their epic meltdown in Game 2, the champs are going to be all business on the defensive end. The Warriors have seen the UNDER go 11-5 the last 16 times that they were tied in a playoff series, a 3-0 UNDER mark their last three in that situation. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-2 this season when attempting to avenge a home loss and a 18-7 UNDER mark the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss as a home favorite. That includes a 16-5 UNDER mark in those games if they'd been favored by seven or more. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the UNDER go 18-9 the past couple of seasons, off an upset road win. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark their last 10 in that situation. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/Boston OVER the total. Off an extremely low-scoring Game 1, we're getting a very low O/U line to work with for Game 2. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Lets not forget that the three previous 2019 meetings, prior to Game 1, produced 214, 226 and 243 points. Also keep in mind that Indiana road games are averaging 214.2 points, even after the Game 1 result. Boston home games, meanwhile, still average a healthy 219.9 points. The Celitcs have seen the OVER go 15-8 off a double-digit win and also 3-1 after allowing 90 points or less. The Pacers have seen the OVER go 3-1 the past four times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Even with the Game 1 result, the OVER is 12-7 when the Celtics were home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Look for those stats to improve Wednesday. |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 207.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 58 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio/Denver OVER the total. Analysis to follow |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Spurs scored the upset in Game 1. Don't expect it to happen again here. The Nuggets remain a dominant 34-8 here at home. The Spurs are still 17-25 on the road. The Nuggets, 7-1 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games, are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS after failing to cover in three or more in a row. Jokic is unstoppable. Though he got a triple-double in Game 1, he was often getting double-teamed and forced to pass. It didn't help that the Nuggets as a team shot terribly from the outside, hitting 21% from beyond the arc. Thats not going to happen again though; they normally hit 35% of their 3-point shots. They normally average 113.7 ppg here. (The Spurs normally allow 113.6 ppg on the road.) If and when they double-team Jokic, he'll continue to find the open man and the Nuggets will start connecting. They beat the Spurs by a score of 113-85 here a couple of weeks ago, hitting 36.4% of their shots from outside in that one. They're 11-5 ATS as home favorites of six points or less. I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Off their Game 1 loss, expect the 76ers to be all business in Game 2. While the Nets are still 20-22 on the road, the 76ers are 31-11 at home. Even off the Game 1 loss, the 76ers are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. They're still 4-2 ATS their last six first round playoff games. The Nets have already accomplished what they wanted, stealing a game on the road. The 76ers have bounced back and earned a double-digit win off each of their last two defeats. Expect more of the same on Monday. |
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04-14-19 | Pistons +13 v. Bucks | Top | 86-121 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons closed out the reg. season by beating Memphis in their home finale and then hammering the Knicks, at MSG, in their road finale. That's noteworthy as they're 10-4 ATS off a road win and 4-1 ATS off a double-digit road win, a perfect 3-0 ATS when off a road win by 20 or more. The Bucks did indeed win all the regular season meetings. However, none of those lines were nearly as large as this one. Note that two of the games were decided by 10 or less. Note that the Pistons are also 7-3 ATS when facing a team which defeated them in three or more straight meetings. The Bucks are just 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. A look at Milwaukee's last seven games shows a 4-3 record with all four wins coming by 10 or less. I'm grabbing the points. |
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04-13-19 | Clippers v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs coasted through the regular season but I expect them to be all business now that the playoffs are here. While they rested regulars down the stretch, the Warriors are healthy. It took awhile but Cousins finally got rolling towards the end of the season. Adding him to the mix, to go along with Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green and co. give them an element - a center who can contribute offensively - that they never really had before. Looking back over the years finds that the Warriors are 27-10 ATS in the first round of the playoffs and 13-7-1 ATS in the first game of a playoff series. The Warriors beat the Clippers by 27 points less than a week ago. I'm expecting them to start the series with another convincing victory. |
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04-10-19 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 216 | Top | 117-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Memphis to finish OVER the total. With Curry and others expected to be rested, the O/U line is a lot lower than it normally would have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The OVER has been profitable all season, when the Warriors were listed as road favorites, particularly in this range. The OVER is also a lucrative 12-7 when the Grizzlies were listed as home underdogs. The Grizzlies are going to want to score some points in their final game. Expect this one to have a preseason type feel - lots of offense without much defensive intensity - the OVER improving to 8-5 when the Warriors played the second of b2b games. |
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04-09-19 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte/Cleveland OVER the total. While these teams have already played a few 'unders' this season, I expect to see plenty of points in this one. The home team has scored plenty in all meetings but the visitor has not. In this case, both are going to put up a big number. This is the Cavs' season finale and they're going to want to score some points for the home faithful. While they managed only 90 last time out, they'd scored 105 or more in 11 straight before that. On the other side of the ball, they're likely going to be less inclined to play tough defense. Thats been the case for awhile now, as they've allowed 110 or more points in nine straight games. Expect plenty of points, the final combined score finishing above the total. |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs have been winning but not covering. Thats got the line down a lot from what it would have been, to the point where a win will now very likely also result in a cover. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that the Cavs are 78-12 SU their last 90 as favorites while the Red Raiders are 10-17 SU their last 27 as underdogs. Many will only remember that the Cavs needed to hit three free throws in the final second to advance. They'll forget that they played a great game until the final five minutes though. I believe the close wins are going to serve them well here. While the Red Raiders are on a great run, they haven't faced a defense like the one they'll face here. After last year's first round debacle, the Cavs come all the way back and win the title. |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Denver a couple of days ago. The Nuggets won that one, which clinched the division title for them. That was a pretty huge accomplishment for them and should have them in letdown mode here. The fact that Jokic (and potentially others) are getting the night off is huge. Murray and/or Millsap may also get the night off. Note that those three players had a combined 70 points and 24 boards on Friday. Unlike the Nuggets, the Blazers still need wins, in order to help secure homecourt advantage. The revenge-minded Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last five, when off a division road loss. Expect them to get some payback tonight. |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan State UNDER 133 | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 134 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas Tech/MSU UNDER the total. Both these teams are extremely stingy defensively. The Spartans have seen each of their last three (and five of their last six) games finish below the total. They held Duke to just 67 last game. Prior to that, they'd allowed 65 or less in five straight. Prior to allowing 69 against Gonzaga, the Red Raiders had allowed 44, 58 and 57 in their previous three games. Note that the 44 was against Michigan, another Big Ten team. Including their win over Northern Kentucky, a game with an O/U line in the mid-130s, Texas Tech has now seen the UNDER go 13-6 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The UNDER is also 14-7 the Raiders' last 21 on a neutral court. During the same span, the Spartans have now seen the UNDER go 19-10 when playing on a neutral court. The Spartans held Duke to 30 points in the first half last game. Before that, they limited LSU to 28 first half points. With the UNDER at 7-1 when the Spartans had held their previous two opponents to 30 or fewer first half points, expect this one to result in a defensive battle. |
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04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia -5.5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. With wins over Kansas, UNC and Kentucky, Auburn has certainly taken down some giants, winning a lot of fans in the process. The Tigers haven't faced a team like this one though and I absolutely expect their magical run to come to an end. Auburn, of course, wants to keep going. However, the Tigers have already achieved more than they could have dreamed. The tournament is a success for them, no matter what happens here. Virginia, on the other hand, will not be at all satisfied if it doesnt win this game. While one could argue that puts more pressure on the Cavs, in my opinion, its going to make them that much more focused. There's no letdown for them. This is a team on a mission, out to completely wipe last year's first round debacle from the record books. The Cavs allow just 55 ppg. Before going to OT vs. Purdue, they'd held all three tournament opponents to 56 or fewer points. Expect their dominant defense to be the difference, the Cavs punching their ticket to the Finals while providing us the cover along the way. |
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04-05-19 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 217 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing Miami/Minnesota OVER the total. I've mentioned before that the T-Wolves are terrible at defending the 3-point shot. Overall, the T-Wolves are allowing an average of 122 ppg their last five. Nearly every team puts up a big number against them and Miami will do so, too. Minnesota continues to score points though, averaging 116.6 ppg its last five. The Heat are off b2b losses to Boston, allowing 110 or more in each. Note that the OVER is 11-6 when they were off two or more consecutive losses. Speaking of an '11-6 over mark,' the Wolves have seen the OVER go 11-6 their last 17, when off an upset road win, a 4-1 OVER mark their last five in that situation. Expect those stats to improve this evening. (10* BLUE CHIP) |
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04-04-19 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 231 | Top | 128-122 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Philadelphia UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a shootout the last time that they faced each other, an upset win by the 76ers. With the Bucks in 1st and the 76ers likely locked into the third seed, many might expect to see another high-scoring affair. However, with these teams knowing that they could eventually run into each other in the playoffs, I'm expecting to see considerably more intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that the UNDER is 5-2 when the Bucks attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The 76ers have quietly since the UNDER go 13-7 their last 20 against winning teams. With the UNDER also 23-14 the last 37 times that the Bucks were off a double-digit road win, look for this one to prove lower-scorng than most will be expecting. |
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04-03-19 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 228 | Top | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Washington OVER the total. The last two meetings between these teams have finished with 246 and 259 combined points. With both teams playing out the string, there's little reason to expect much defense in this one either. The Wizards have allowed 112 or more points in 14 of their last 16. For the season, they rank second last in the league in total points (116.9) allowed per game. They're also in the bottom three for both field goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. The Bulls know all about shoddy defense. I won with the 'over' in their last game, they allowed 113 against NY. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to that game: The Bulls, who have given up more than 110 points in five straight, have seen the OVER go 14-9-2 their last 25 games overall ... Over their last five, they're allowing an average of 117.6 ppg." Expect a shootout. |
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04-01-19 | Blazers v. Wolves OVER 223 | Top | 132-122 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Minnesota OVER the total. Eliminated from the playoffs, the T-Wolves aren't playing with much defensive intensity and they particularly struggle at defending the perimeter. Over their last 20 games, the Wolves have allowed 294 3-point shots. To provide some perspective, thats the most 3-pointers allowed by a team, over a 20-game stretch, in the history of the NBA. Over their last three games, they've allowed 118, 130 (OT) and 122 points. The T-Wolves have kept scoring themselves though, averaging 117 over those three and getting more than 110 in each. For the season, they're averaging 114.6 ppg here. In fact, they've reached triple-digits in 25 straight, the longest streak in franchise history. Prior to scoring only 90 at Detroit last time out, the Blazers had scored 117 or more in five straight games. They averaged 125.4 ppg in those. All things considered, this number could be higher. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks, the final combined score finishing above the total. |
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04-01-19 | DePaul v. South Florida UNDER 151.5 | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Depaul/USF UNDER the total. Depaul saw all of its March games finish above the number. However, we've reached a new month and I expect a different result here. Note that the recent 'over' streak has helped in leading to a generously high O/U number, much higher than is typical for a game involving South Florida. Indeed, 12 of the Bulls' last 13 games have had O/U lines in the 120s or 130s. The other was in the 140s. Note that the Bulls allowed a mere 47 points last time out, after allowing just 57 in their previous game. Not surprisingly, those games (66-57 and 56-47) both fell below the total. The UNDER is now 4-0 when the Bulls had been favored in their previous three games. Likewise, during the same span, Depaul has seen the UNDER go 7-0 after playing its previous three as a favorite. Thats a combined 11-0 'under' mark. I expect those stats to improve on Monday! |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State v. Duke -2 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils may be a little fortunate to be here but that doesn't mean that they're not a dominant team. Duke beat MSU by seven in 2017 and by nine in 2016. You might be surprised to learn that the Spartans are just 11-23 ATS their last 34 as underdogs of three points or less, when playing away from home. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) this season, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s. The Blue Devils are also 30-4 SU when favored this season. Expect the combination of Williamson and Barrett to prove to be too much for the Spartans, the Blue Devils improving on those stats while covering the small number along the way. |
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03-29-19 | Houston v. Kentucky UNDER 135.5 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 110 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Kentucky UNDER the total. These teams were both dominant defensively through the first two rounds. The Cougars held Ohio State to just 59 points last time out. The Wildcats limited Wofford to a mere 56. Before that, they permitted just 44. In its previous game, Houston allowed 56. Overall, the Cougars 61.1 ppg allowed ranked as the best mark in the AAC. They recently held UConn to 45. In fact, the Cougars rank #1 in the nation field goal percentage defense (36.7 percent), #2 in 3-point field goal percentage defense (27.6 percent) and #1 in scoring defense. Kentucky's 64.5 ppg allowed was second best in the SEC, just behind Florida. The UNDER is now 10-5 the past 15 times that Kentucky had allowed 60 or fewer points in its previous game. There won't be many easy baskets in this one; I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. |
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03-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Duke -7.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -103 | 109 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. If you watched Duke's last game, or at least caught the highlights of the final few seconds, you'll know that the Blue Devils could easily have been knocked out. They were indeed fortunate to survive. However, they did survive - and that near-tournament-death experience will serve them well here. Duke teams are always talented. This one is ultra-talented. The Hokies got a fortunate draw as they faced Liberty last round. Even that wasn't easy, as they trailed at halftime. Its true that the Hokies upset the Blue Devils less than a month ago. However, that was at Blacksburg and the Blue Devils were without Zion Williamson. The Hokies and their fans think they can beat Duke again. I think they're wrong. Having survived the UCF game and given new life, look for the Blue Devils to avenge last month's loss, providing us the the cover along the way. |
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03-29-19 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | Top | 130-131 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Minnesota OVER the total. While the champs have seen a few more 'unders' than 'overs' on the season, there's one role where they've been very profitable to OVER bettors. Thats in the role of road favorites. The OVER is 19-12 when the Warriors were laying points on the road. Looking a little more closely reveals that the OVER is 12-2 when they were road favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Off a 122-11 loss to the Clippers, the T-Wolves have now seen the OVER go 15-4 after having lost three of their previous four games, an 11-3 OVER mark after having lost four of five. The Warriors won by 10 when these teams met 10 days ago. Thats worth mentioning as the OVER is also 23-12 when the Wolves played with 'revenge,' 11-5 when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. Expect those stats to improve this evening, as the final combined score finishes above the number. |
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03-27-19 | Wizards v. Suns +2 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards won a wild 149-146 affair at Washington in late December. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Suns to return the favor tonight. While the Wizards are off a loss at LA last night, the Suns had the day off. While the Suns got blown out last time out, they're still a healthy 8-4 ATS their last 12 games. The Wizards have now dropped five straight, failing to cover in four of those. With last night's loss, the Wizards are now 9-21-1 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater, 3-9-1 ATS (1-12 SU!) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. They're also just 3-7 ATS as road favorites. Expect the Suns to bounce back, improving to 3-1 ATS when off a blowout loss of 30 or more points. |
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03-26-19 | Florida International +4 v. Green Bay | Top | 68-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. The Phoenix may have homecourt advantage but the Panthers have other advantages that more than make up for it. FIU scores more points and allows less. The Panthers also force a lot of turnovers. In fact, they led all of Division 1 with 10.6 steals per game. The Panthers, who have won six of eight overall, were 11-6 ATS as underdogs this season. Going back further finds them at 21-11 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points on the road. This is going to be a very high-scoring game, as both teams score a lot and both allow a lot. In fact, the O/U line is curently 176.5 or 177, as I write this. Thats noteworthy as the Phoenix are 0-5 ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of 170 or higher. I'm grabbing the points. |
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03-26-19 | Magic v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Magic won the first two meetings, the Heat taking the third. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Heat to also take this one. While the Magic are off a home win vs the 76ers last night, the Heat are well-rested. The last time that the Magic played on the road, after playing the previous day, they lost by 14, at Cleveland. Note that the Heat are 7-4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Heat, who knocked off Washington as a slight underdog last time out, have won four of five overall and nine of their past 12. They're also 12-4-1 ATS when off an 'upset' win. While the Magic deserve some credit for staying in the playoff race, expect the Heat to deliver a serious blow to their chances this evening, providing us the cover along the way. |
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03-25-19 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 218.5 | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Memphis OVER the total (10* BEST BET). The Grizzlies are known as a defensive team. That hasn't been the case lately though; they're allowing an average of greater than 125 points per game, over their last five. Both this season's meetings have fallen below the total. However, both of those were played at OKC. Five of the Thunder's last six trips to Memphis, including three straight, have finished above the total. The last time that these teams played here, they combined for 235 points. The Thunder have seen the OVER go 22-13-1 against sub-500 teams, a 9-2 OVER mark their last 11 against losing teams. While the OVER is 12-9 when OKC was a road favorite, the OVER is also 9-7-1 when the Grizzlies were a home underdog. The OVER is also 11-5-1 when the Grizzlies were off a home loss, 3-1 when that home loss came by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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03-24-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Oregon UNDER 123.5 | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing UC Urvine/Oregon UNDER the total. The Ducks are playing dominant defense. They held Wisconsin to 54 points in the opening round after limiting Washington to just 48 in the Pac-12 finals. They've allowed 61 or fewer points in eight of their past nine games, 54 or less in seven of those. The Anteaters have also been very stingy. They allowed 64 in their opener and have now allowed an average of just 59.75 ppg their last four. Note that the UNDER is 6-3 when they'd allowed 65 or less in b2b games. The UNDER is also 11-6 when the Anteaters had allowed 30 or fewer first half points, in b2g games. While this O/U line may initially seem a little low, keep in mind that the UNDER is 4-1 when the Ducks played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 2-0 when the Ducks were listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 9-4 the last 13 times that Oregon was in that situation. Expect those stats to improve, as defense takes center stage in this one. |
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03-24-19 | Iowa v. Tennessee -8 | Top | 77-83 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols got tested for awhile in their opener. However, they pulled away when it mattered. Having had their "wake-up call," I expect Schofield and co. to flex their muscles and to deliver a double-digit win vs. an over-matched Iowa team. The Hawkeyes managed an upset of Cincinnati in the opener. However, Tennessee is in an entirely different class. Even with the win over the Bearcats, Iowa is still just 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog, the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Vols are 2-0 as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Having failed to cover in either of their last two games, note that the Vols are a lucrative 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they were off b2b games, where they'd failed to cover the spread. The Vols are better on both sides of the ball; they score more and allow less. Expect a double-digit win. |
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03-23-19 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-91 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/GSW OVER the total. With Curry expected to rest this evening, many will be expecting a low-scoring affair. Don't make that mistake. Even without Curry, the champs are going to put up a huge number against a defensively-challenged Dallas team. Note that the Mavs have given up a minimum of 116 points in four straight games. The last two meetings finished with 236 and 233. The Warriors blew out the Pacers here by 23 points on Thursday night. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 5-1 when the champs were off a 20+ point home win and 10-4 when they were off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-23-19 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 142 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/MSU UNDER the total. In this battle of Big Ten rivals, expect defense to take center stage. The Spartans have held the Gophers to 57 and 55 points, the last two meetings. Not surprisingly, both stayed below the total. Those two games were in 2018 and 2019. The two 2017 meetings were even lower-scoring, 63-58 and 65-47. The Gophers put up a big number last time out but are going to have a tough time doing so here. Note that the UNDER is 15-10 the past 25 times that they scored 85 or more points in their previous game and 12-8 the past 20 times that they had allowed 75 or more in b2b games. As for this season's Spartans, they've seen the UNDER go 7-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s and 3-0 when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for the UNDER to imrpove to 5-0 their last five, when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the 140-144.5 range. |
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03-23-19 | Florida v. Michigan -7 | Top | 49-64 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan. The Big 10 has looked pretty strong thus far and the Wolverines have looked as good as any from that conference. They cruised to a 74-55 victory over Montana on Thursday. I expect another convincing win on Saturday. The Gators may have scored a minor upset against Nevada. However, they've still lost four of seven overall and they're still just 9-15-1 ATS their past 25, against when listed as underdogs. They won't be used to the type of defense; the Wolverines allow 54.5 ppg against non-conf. opponents.The Wolverines are a dominant 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 on a neutral court. They're also 14-7 ATS their last 20 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio/Houston OVER the number. While this number may seem on the high side for a San Antonio game, consider that the Spurs have seen the OVER go 14-3 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. The OVER is also 17-5 when they were listed as road underdogs. The Rockets are off a 126-125 loss against Memphis. That's worth noting as the OVER is 11-2 when they were off a divisional game, a 4-1 OVER mark when that divisional game resulted in a loss. Expect another high-scoring affair this evening. |
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03-22-19 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 208.5 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/Orlando OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Last time out, the Magic scored 119 but their opponent managed only 96. Orlando should put up a failry big number again only this time its opponent should do the same. Mike Conley has been playing very well lately. So, one might assume that his likely absence (currently doubtful) for tonight's game would hurt the Memphis offense. However, Conley's real brilliance is on the defensive side of the ball. With him likely out and Gasol having been traded to Toronto, this isn't the same dominant defensive team that we've gotten used to. A look at the Grizzlies' last three games, all of which exceeded the total, shows combined scores of 243, 263 and 241. The Grizzlies have now scored 105 or more in six straight games and 13 of their last 14. The Grizzlies have covered five of their last seven and the OVER is 6-1 when they'd covered five or six of their previous seven. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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03-22-19 | Washington +3 v. Utah State | Top | 78-61 | Win | 100 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Perhaps its due to the blowout loss to Oregon, but the Huskies sure aren't getting much respect here. This is a team which won the Pac-12 regular season. The Huskies are also a team which hasn't lost two in a row this entire season, a perfect 7-0 when coming off a loss. While the Aggies are indeed on a roll and off b2b ATS wins, they're just 8-13 ATS the past 21 times that they'd covered the spread in two or more consecutive games. Utah State over-achieved this season. Though the Aggies do a lot of good things, they struggle at defending the perimeter and they also aren't very good at forcing turnovers. Those weaknesses haven't hurt them against weaker competition but I expect them to make the difference here. Expect the Huskies to score the upset in this one. |
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03-22-19 | Colgate v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colgate/Tennessee UNDER the total. Colgate has been an underdog six times this season and five of those stayed below the total. Going back further finds the UNDER at 11-3 their last 14 in the underdog role (games with totals) and 23-8 the past 31. After getting blown out by Auburn last time out, the Vols are going to be highly motivated for a dominant defensive performance. Note that the UNDER is 17-9-1 the past 27 times that Tennessee was off a loss. That includes an 8-4 UNDER mark when that loss came against an SEC opponent in a game where the Vols were favored. During the same span, the UNDER is 7-4 after the Vols had allowed 75 or more points in b2b games. With the UNDER also 10-2-1 the past 13 times that the Vols were in a first round NCAA Tournament game, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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03-21-19 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 89-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State / Indiana OVER the total (10*). This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 229 and finished at 232. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Pacers, who gave up 115 vs. the Clippers last time out, have seen the OVER go 8-5 after allowing 115 or more. While the Warriors 'under' streak continued last time out, they still combined for 224 points. The OVER is 18-9 when the champs were off a double-digit win, 10-4 when that double-digit win came on the road. Expect those stats to improve, as this one turns into a shootout. 10* BLUE CHIP |
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03-21-19 | Abilene Christian v. Kentucky -21 | Top | 44-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). If you're looking for an upset, look elsewhere. This one's going to be a destruction. Off its loss to Tennessee, Kentucky is going to be all business here. The Cats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a conference loss by six or fewer points. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that Kentucky is also 9-5 ATS its last 14, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for Abilene Christian, they're 3-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Stats aside, the (Kentucky) Wildcats are bigger, stronger, faster and just plain better. Abilene coach Joe Golding had this to say: "We could play Kentucky, I don't know, man, 10,000 times, we might win once ... " Not tonight. Expect Kentucky to pull away for a decisive win. |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +1.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Sun Devils won when these teams met at the Staples Center last season, during the Basketball Hall Of Fame Classic. However, that was a season when the Sun Devils got off to a 12-0 start. I really like the Red Storm in Wednesday's rematch. With five players averaging in double-figures in scoring, the Red Storm are built for tournament play. These teams had a pair of common opponents, Cal and Princeton. Both of them beat Cal. However, while the Red Storm easily handled Princeton, the Tigers came into Tempe and defeated the Sun Devils. St. John's Shamorie Ponds scored 19 in last season's game and he's even better now. Even with last season's result, the Sun Devils are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 against teams from the Big East. Expect the Red Storm to take this one. |
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03-20-19 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 224 | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Orleans/Orlando OVER the total. The Pelicans stopped playing defense a long time ago. They've been even worse than that lately. Over their last six games, they've allowed 127, 128, 130, 122, 138 and 125. That makes it 16 straight games where they've allowed greater than 110 points. They haven't stopped scoring though. They've hit triple digits in 15 straight games and have scored 110 or more in five straight. During that 5-game span, they're averaging 120.8. Not surprisingly, five of their past six have finished above the number. Note that the OVER is 17-9 when they're been underdogs on the road. The Magic have seen the OVER go 12-7 the past 19 times that they were off a double-digit home win, 5-2 to the OVER when that win came within their division. The OVER is also 10-4 the past 14 times that they were off two or more consecutive wins. Like everyone else has done against New Orleans of late, expect the Magic to put up a big number tonight, the Pelicans chipping in enough to send the final combined score above the reasonably low number. |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings OVER 231.5 | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/Sacramento OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). No reason to expect much defense in this one. The Nets saw their last game produce 235 points. The Kings have seen four straight finish above the 230 mark. Last time out, they scored 129 themselves. That was against a Chicago team that failed to keep up. The Nets, who put up 123 in winning this season's previous meeting, should be far more effective at keeping up. Note that the Kings have seen the OVER go 12-9 when in the revenge role, 4-2 when attempting to avenge a blowout loss of 20 or more points. The Nets have seen the OVER go 3-1 after playing three straight on the road and 3-1 after b2b road losses. Expect offensive fireworks, those stats improving this evening. |
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03-18-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 119-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). The Cavs are playing with "triple-revenge" in this one, having lost each of this season's three meetings. Earlier this month, the Pistons embarrassed them here. That should help provide them with some added motivation for this one. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to get some payback here. While the Cavs had Sunday off, the Pistons are off a hard fought win vs. the Raptors. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they were destroyed by a 103-7 margin. Including that result, they're just 15-26 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. While the Pistons have been solid at home, they're just 13-20 on the road. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 4-2 ATS when attempting to avenge two or more double-digit losses. They're also 8-5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit home loss. Grab the points. |
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03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings OVER 231.5 | Top | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing Chicago and Sacramento OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). No reason to expect much defense in this one. While the Kings are only in ninth, they're not making the playoffs. At 19-51, needless to say, the same is true of Chicago. Thats been pretty evident by the Bulls' defense of late; they've allowed 131, 123 and 128 points their last three games. They did average 112 ppg themselves, good enough to send all three of those games above the total. Its been a similar story for Sacramento. The Kings' last three games have all produced a minimum of 236 combined points; final scores of 236, 246 and 237. The Kings allowed more than 120 in each of those, scoring at least 114 in all three. The Bulls have seen the OVER go 8-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. The OVER is also 9-5 when they were off three or more consecutive losses. Expect more offensive fireworks here. |
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03-17-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 131 | Top | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing Michigan/MSU UNDER the total. While both regular season meetings managed to finish above the total, I'm fully expecting defense to take center stage at the United Center, on Selection Sunday. Both teams were dominant defensively yesterday. The Spartans limited Wisconsin to just 57 points. The Wolverines were even better. They held Minnesota to a mere 49 points. Both teams are tired and banged-up but thats not going to affect their defensive intensity. It may, however, cause some shots to miss, that otherwise might have fallen. While these teams do indeed have a history of some recent high-scoring games, the last time that they met in the Big-Ten Conf. title game (almost exactly 4 years ago, at Indianapolis) the final score was 69-55. The Spartans, just as they are here, entered off a big win vs. Wisconsin. Both regular season meetings finished above the total that season, too. However, with the tourney on the line, defense ruled the day. Including that result, the last six times that these rivals met in March, the combined score was 126.8 points. Expect another low-scoring affair here. |
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03-16-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -1 | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on OLD DOMINION (10* GAME OF WEEK). One could make a case that the Hilltoppers have looked better in the tournament, thus far. They won both their games by double-digits. Meanwhile, the Monarchs won their two games by just three combined points. However, being involved in close games - and winning them - often serves teams well. I expect that to be the case here. ODU already won both regular season meetings, another pair of close victories. This is an ODU team which keeps grinding and finds a way to win. CUSA Player Of The Year BJ Stith had this to say: “We never give up. If there's time on the clock, we're still fighting." The Monarchs allow the fewest points in the conference. Expect their superior defense, "never say die" mentality and ability to win the close ones to prove the difference, as they punch their ticket to the Big Dance for the first time since 2011. |
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03-16-19 | Suns v. Pelicans OVER 232 | Top | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/New Orleans OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Both teams played yesterday, both those games stayed below the closing total. Both those opponents were playoff-bound teams though. Here, we have a pair of teams playing out the string. I expect that to lead to very little intensity on the defensive side of the ball. The Pelicans allowed 122 points last night. In their previous three games, they'd allowed 127, 128 and 130. That makes it 14 straight games that they've allowed greater than 110 points. They've continued to score, however, hitting triple-digits in 13 straight games, hitting 110 or more in 11 of those. While they allowed only 108 last night, the Suns entered that game allowing an average of 118.9 ppg on the road. These teams combined for 246 points on the first of March. The last time that the Pelicans played a home game, after playing the previous day, the game produced 243 points. Expect more of the same here. |
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03-16-19 | Rhode Island v. St Bonaventure UNDER 127.5 | Top | 51-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure UNDER the total (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). St. Bonaventure, which held George Mason to just 57 points yesterday, has seen the UNDER go 4-1 in all neutral site games. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-6-1 their last 20 in that situation. The Bonnies have now held nine straight opponents to 60 or fewer points. Not surprisingly, they allow the second fewest points per game in the A-10. While the O/U line may initially seem low for a Rhode Island game, consider that the Rams have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the past four times, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During the same stretch, the UNDER is 3-0 when the Rams were off four consec. games where they scored 75 or more. Expect those stats to improve here, as the Bonnies slow the pace down and keep the final combined score below the total. |
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03-15-19 | Colorado v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). The Huskies won both regular season meetings and I expect them to complete the sweep this evening. While they may have only won by three against USC yesterday, the Huskies did a lot of impressive things, including registering a season-high in both assists and 3-pointers. The close victory will serve them well here. While the shooters are getting hot at the right time, its the Washington defense which carried them to the Pac-12 reg. season title. Their 64 ppg allowed on defense ranks 26th in the nation. While both teams played yesterday, the Buffaloes also played the previous day. Though they won big last night, playing three games in three days will catch up with tonight. The Huskies have failed to cover five straight for the first time this season. They're 2-0 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons and 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that they were in that situation. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-15-19 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 225 | Top | 102-108 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Phoenix OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). When these teams met last, the O/U line was 227.5 and the final combined score was 228. This evening's opening O/U line is lower but I'm expecting an even higher-scoring affair. As you may have seen, the Rockets lost against the Warriors in their last game. GS won 106-104, on Wednesday, just the 10th time all season that the Rockets have lost at home. Thats been a profitable 'over' spot for the Rockets. Indeed, the OVER is a lucrative 8-1 when they were coming off a home loss. The Suns were blown out by Utah, on Wednesday. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 9-5 on the season, when they were off a double-digit home loss. Its also worth mentioning that the Suns will play again on Saturday. Thats noteworthy as the last five times that they played the front end of b2b games had combined scores of 247, 246, 226, 250 and 226. Expect plenty of points, once again. |
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03-14-19 | North Texas +2.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 51-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* BEST BET). I won with UNT yesterday and am coming right back with them. Here's an excerpt from yesterday's writeup, which I've included as it applies here: "...The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening." I like the fact that North Texas played yesterday while Western Kentucky hasn't played in a week. The last two meetings were close - WKU won by three this season and in OT last season. Once again, expect the Mean Green seniors to come through when it counts. |
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03-14-19 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 210.5 | Top | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cleveland/Orlando OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The Cavs have seen the OVER go 10-4 when off an ATS win where they lost SU. That includes a 7-2 OVER mark when that 'cover' came on the road. The OVER is also 7-3 the past 10 times that the Cavs were off two or more consec. ATS wins. The Cavs took the last meeting, winning by 14 at Cleveland a little over a week ago; note that the OVER is 6-4 when the Magic were playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss. After scoring just 90 last night, expect the Magic offense to come to life tonight, the OVER improving to 10-3 when they were playing the second of b2b games. |
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03-13-19 | North Texas -1 v. Florida International | Top | 71-57 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* VIOLATOR). The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-13-19 | Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 224 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/Atlanta OVER the total (10* TOW). When these teams met earlier in the season, they combined for a whopping 248 points. This will be another high-scoring affair. Atlanta put up 128 points last time out, allowing 116. That marked the 10th game in a row in which the Hawks had allowed greater than 110 points. Going back further finds that the Hawks have now allowed greater than 110 points in 20 of their last 21. (They allowed 106 in the other.) Indeed, there's not much defense being played in Atlanta games. For the season, the Hawks are allowing 119.1 ppg here at home and 120 ppg when facing a team from the Western Conference. While the Grizzlies haven't allowed that many, they haven't exactly been their normally stingy selves of late either. They're allowing an avg of 109 ppg their past five, opponents connecting on 48% of their field goals over that stretch. They've seen two of their last three top the total. With both teams out of playoff contention, don't expect to see much defense here either. Go with the OVER. |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers -14 | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Cavs scored a major upset over the Raptors last night. On the road, playing their second game in two days, expect them to get blown out this evening. While the big points may seem tempting, consider that Cleveland is just 4-9-1 ATS (2-12 SU) as a road underdog of greater than 12 points. One of those wins came here back in November. The 76ers were laying -13 and lost outright. They've already avenged that loss by crushing the Cavs at Cleveland. However, they still haven't forgotten and they aren't about to take them lightly again. Sure, Butler is getting the night off. However, this team is stacked without him. Off b2b road losses, the 76ers bounced back with a 17-point home win over the Pacers. Note that they're 9-4 ATS after having lost two of their previous three. Schedule, talent and venue in their favor, expect nothing less than a destruction. |
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03-12-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech OVER 126 | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/GT OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Both this season's meetings had O/U lines in the 130s. The most recent produced 128 points but stayed below the total. We're working with a considerably lower number this afternoon, enough so that the same score would now finish above the total. In a game where I expect both teams to score and be competitive the entire way, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Irish have seen both their neutral court games finish above the total. They've also seen the OVER go 4-1 after allowing 60 or fewer points in their last game. Additionally, the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that they were off a road loss of three or fewer points. Back to the low O/U number: GT has seen the OVER go a lucrative 14-5 the past 19 times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 120s, 6-1 to the OVER in that situation this season. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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03-11-19 | Hornets +9 v. Rockets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* BEST BET). The schedule favors the visitors in this one. While the Hornets had Sunday off, the Rockets were busy eking out a win, at Dallas. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by only three points, as a -9 point favorite. That also happened to be as situation where they were playing a home game, after playing a road game the previous day. Note that the Rockets are only 11-14-1 ATS against Eastern Conf. teams including 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Southeast. While they know winning here won't be easy, the Hornets also know that they desperately need victories. Expect their best effort tonight, en route to AT LEAST an ATS win. |
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03-11-19 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 61-43 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* PERS FAV). Expected to be one of the better teams in the MAC, Ball State really underperformed this season. While the tournament offers a fresh start, its not always easy to just suddenly turn things around. Indeed, the Cardinals have dropped five of their last six overall and are a dismal 0-7 ATS their last seven. Coach James Whitford had this to say: "We've gone on a rally in a bad way. We can't seem to turn it around." The Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three and they swept the season series. James Thompson IV was unstoppable in the wins over Ball State. This is an EMU team which brought back most of its top players from last year and which is coming in with confidence. They say its difficult to beat a team three times. Expect it to happen here. |
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03-10-19 | Suns v. Warriors -17 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). While this line may seem high to some, consider that the Warriors were laying -17 points in the last meeting and that was at Phoenix. The Suns, 13-19 ATS a road underdog, have just one win in 10 tries, when playing the second of b2b games. While they were playing Portland tough last night, the champs were resting. Note that the Suns are just 3-9 ATS when the O/U line was 230 or greater, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Going back a bit further, they're just 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) their past nine in that situation. They just don't have the firepower to keep up with a high-scoring team for an entire game, particularly on the road. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. They won by 20 in the earlier meeting here and I expect them to win by at least that many again tonight. |
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03-10-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off b2b road losses, I expect the Buckeys to bounce back with a big performance here. They're 2-0 SU/ATS off a game where they scored 50 or less. Going back further finds them at 14-8 ATS in that situation. While the Badgers are indeed a strong defensive team, note that the Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS their last 13 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. With an O/U line in the low-mid 120's, its also worth mentioning that Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) the past 10 times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect AT LEAST a 'cover' for the highly motivated home side with a great shot at the outright win. |
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03-09-19 | Hawaii v. CS-Fullerton -3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* CBB GOY). The Warriors won 79-68 when these teams met at Hawaii earlier this season. Playing at home, expect the Titans to exact some revenge Saturday evening. In the earlier meeting, Hawaii connected on 11 3-point shots while CS Fullerton made just four. That disparity isn't likely to happen again. The Warriors are playing their second straight on the road. Since the earlier meeting between these teams, this will mark the fourth time that Hawaii has played two consecutive road games. In all three previous cases, they lost (both SU and ATS) when playing their second straight on the road. Note that the Warriors are also 0-2 SU/ATS when off a conference road win. The Titans are playing much better than they were when these teams met earlier. They've won 10 of their last 13 and five of their last seven. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. It all adds up to "Payback Time" on Saturday night. Lay the small number. |
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03-08-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* ANNIHILATOR). This is essentially a must win game for the Hornets. They've dropped two straight and have fallen out of the top eight. In other words, if the playoffs started today, they wouldn't be playing. Unlike the Wizards, who are two games further behind and are facing even more improbable odds, the Hornets still have a glimmer of hope of getting back in it. They absolutely need to win here though, as their next four games are on the road, one of those coming against these very same Wizards. I expect them to rise to the occasion and for them to deliver their best effort. While the Wizards are a dismal 9-25 (9-24-1 ATS!) on the road, the Hornets are a respectable 20-14 at home. The home team has already won and covered both meetings in the season series, the Hornets winning by 13 here at Charlotte. More of the same Friday. |
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03-08-19 | Bradley v. Missouri State OVER 125.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Missouri State / Bradley OVER the total. These teams saw both January meetings stay below the number. However, we're working with a considerably lower total here. In fact, this is the lowest total these teams have had against each other since 2016. In a game where both teams are likely to put up a decent number and be competitive the entire way, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Bradley gave up 81 points last time out while Missouri State allowed 73. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 223 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/Milwaukee UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). All three of this season's previous meetings produced fewer than 220 combined points. Those games had final scores of 219, 210 and 203, the scores getting gradually lower with each meeting. Yet, we're working with an O/U number higher than any of those totals. The Bucks managed only 105 points last time out. Ditto for the Pacers. Last time on the road, Indiana scored just 101. Back to the high O/U number; the Pacers have seen the UNDER go 9-3-1 when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or higher. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the UNDER go 10-3 in divisional play, allowing an average of just 102 points in those games. Expect defense to take center stage once again, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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03-07-19 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -6 | Top | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Jaguars won when these teams met at South Alabama back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Chanticleers to exact some revenge. Note that the Chanticleers are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 147, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as the Chanticleers are a profitable 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. After having dropped five of their previous six, both SU and ATS, the Chanticleers got back on track last time out, winning outright at LA Monroe. They're 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 off a SU victory. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evennig's game, picking up the cover along the way. |
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03-06-19 | 76ers v. Bulls OVER 225.5 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philly/Chicago OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Both teams saw yesterday's game stay below the total. For the 76ers, it was their second straight game which barely snuck under the number, their fourth straight 'under' overall. I fully expect that 'under' streak to get snapped here. This season's earlier meeting produced 235 points. That was at Philadelphia, where the Bulls were going to have trouble scoring. (Philly won 127-108.) Here, at Chicago, both teams are likely to put up a big number. Note that the last meeting here produced 231 points, a 116-115 affair. They already had 136 points by halftime in that one. Including that result, the 76ers have seen the OVER go 24-13 the past 37 times that they were listed as road favorites. Even with yesterday's game staying below the total, the Bulls have seen the OVER go 9-4 their last 13. That includes a 126-116 victory the last time that they played the second of b2b games, that one sailing above the number by 20+. Expect more of the same tonight. |