Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-13 | Oregon State v. California -7.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Admittedly, the Bears haven't been a very good bet at home this season. Their early season results have worked in our favor a bit here though, as I believe that this line, which has come down a bit from its opener, could easily be higher.
The Bears hold opposing teams to 37.3% shooting here. On the other hand, when playing on the road, the Beavers allow their hosts to hit 46.8% of their shots. While the Bears are 26-18-3 ATS (40-7 SU) the last 47 times (4-3 ATS and 6-1 SU L7) that they were listed as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, the Beavers are a poor 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. One of those games came in last year's game here. The Bears were favored by nine and they won by 14. The Bears were also laying nine points in the previous meeting here. They won that one by 28. The Bears just finished up a 1-2 road trip with a 10-point loss at Colorado. They won their most recent home game (vs. WSU) by 13 points though and we find them at 3-0 SU/ATS when off a conference loss. They're 13-5 ATS their last 18 in that situation. During that stretch, they're also 2-0 SU/ATS after playing three straight on the road. I expect a double-digit win. *10 End of Month Blowout |
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01-31-13 | Butler v. St. Louis -2.5 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST LOUIS. Butler comes in with the higher ranking and has certainly proven that its worthy of respect. That said, I feel that the Billikens are favored for good reason.
While Saturday's 83-71 win vs. Temple was impressive, the Bulldogs managed only 53 points in losing their most recent road game. Back on the road and facing a very stingy opponent, I expect them to have some trouble scoring here. The Billikens are a very good team. They've won two in a row and 11 of 13. Long known for their defense, they're allowing just 57.8 ppg. At home that number dips to 55.8 points, opposing teams hitting 41.3% from the field. By comparison, Butler is giving up an average of 67.5 ppg on the road. The Billikens came into this season with high expectations. They could badly use a "signature win" and this game provides an excellent opportunity to beat a ranked opponent. The Bulldogs are only 1-3 ATS the last four times that they scored 80 or more points in their previous game. Don't be surprised when they suffer a rare loss tonight. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-31-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game. They got blown out by the Lakers. The Thunder were playing the final game of a long road trip and a grueling stretch to start the year. They were also facing a revenge-minded Laker team which was in "desperation mode." Things set up much differently here.
For starters, the Thunder are back home, where they're a dominating 19-3 SU and 14-8 ATS. They're also now well-rested. Fatigue will no longer be a factor. Russell Westbrook noted: "It's a great feeling to get back in front of your home fans. We have to take advantage of it." Note that the Thunder are an outstanding 30-12-1 ATS (36-7 SU) the last 43 times that they were off an upset loss, going 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight. Instead of facing a desperate Laker team, the Thunder will now take on a Memphis team which is somewhat comfortable in its spot in the standings and which may be a little distracted from yesterday's big trade. While they had talked of trading him for some time and while they do get a couple of solid players in return, Gay was a top tier player. He was the team's leading scorer and he just hit the go-ahead shot, scoring 26 overall, in Monday's win. Facing an elite team like OKC, I expect him to be missed. Instead of facing a "revenge" minded Laker team, this time the Thunder are the ones playing with payback on their minds. That's because Memphis beat them here back in November. Lack of motivation should not be an issue. Note that the Thunder are an excellent 18-9 ATS the last few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss, including 4-1 SU/ATS their last five in that situation. Overall, they're 48-28 ATS (51-25 SU) the last 76 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-30-13 | Oregon v. Stanford -2 | Top | 52-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. The Ducks come in with the the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Cardinal are favored (slightly) for good reason.
Give the Ducks credit for winning. However, also note that they are averaging 15.7 turnovers per game (most in the conference) and that their last five wins have come by an average of just five points. They turned the ball over 23 times on Saturday but a great shooting day bailed them out. I expect their good fortune to come to an end against what figures to be a very determined Stanford squad. The Ducks will be without starting point guard Dominic Artis, out with a foot injury. They're 2-4 ATS off a conference win and 14-15 on the road the past few seasons. During that time the Cardinal are 36-10 at home. While Oregon got the upper-hand last season, the Cardinal have long dominated the Ducks here. (They're 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS L15 as a host against Oregon.) I expect them to resume that domination this evening. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-30-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +5 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Clippers did manage to get back on track with a win last time out. However, I still don't believe they currently deserve to be laying this many points on the road. Not without their leader.
The Clippers are still just 1-4 their last five, 0-3 on the road. The T-Wolves are playing with "double-revenge," having lost both previous meetings. Lack of motivation should not be an issue. When these teams met here a little less than two weeks ago, Rubio was playing his first game of the season and the T-Wolves were also playing without their head coach - that can be tough for a team and the T-Wolves struggled. Rubio's got some games under his belt now though and Minnesota's coach (Adelman) is back tonight, the first time since Jan 5th. I expect the well-rested and revenge-minded T-Wolves to give their best effort, en route to earning at least a cover. *10 Western Conf Best Bet |
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01-30-13 | Toronto Raptors +7 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors have lost a couple lately. However, they've still been excellent at the betting window in recent weeks. They're 9-6-1 ATS their last 16.
While they've lost two in a row, the first of those came by a single point. The second loss came Monday, a 114-102 defeat vs. Golden State. Note that the Raptors are 6-4-1 ATS off a double-digit loss. The Hawks are off a tough 2-point loss vs. New York. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. However, they'd lost eight of 10 before that. A closer look shows that only three of the Hawks' last 14 games have resulted in an Atlanta victory of greater than eight points. While they haven't played since Sunday, which would normally be a good thing, note that the Hawks are 0-5 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Listed as 9.5 point underdogs the last time that they played here, the Raptors won by 16 points. While another blowout win is probably unlikely, another upset wouldn't shock me. Either way, I expect a competitive game with the visitors earning at least a cover. *10 Eastern Conf. Best Bet |
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01-30-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 181.5 | Top | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Indiana to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Pistons to finish over the total last night. However, that was at Detroit, where I felt the Pistons would score and it was against Milwaukee, a team I also expected to score and which I felt would like to play at a fast pace.
Today's opponent is much different. The Pacers are a stingy defensive team and they don't mind slowing things down at times. The Pistons know all about that. When these teams met in mid-December, Detroit managed a mere 77 points. They shot just 38.6% from the field and lost 88-77. Speaking of that December game, note that the UNDER is 5-2 the last seven times that the Pistons attempted to avenge a home loss. Its also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 4-0-1 the last five times that the Pistons played the second of back-to-back games. Those games had combined scores of 167, 177, 183, 165 and 195. (The 195 game came against high-scoring Denver.) The Pacers allow just 87.2 ppg here and have seen the UNDER go 12-7 at home. They've also seen the UNDER go 13-6 against teams with a losing record. Playing their first game back off a trip which concluded with them allowing 100 or more points in losing three straight games, I expect their to be real emphasis on defense here. Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times that the Pacers were on a losing streak of three ore more games. More of the same this evening. *10 blue chip |
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01-30-13 | Villanova v. Notre Dame -7.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Wildcats are off back to back very impressive wins. Both were at home though. They're at a very difficult venue tonight though and I expect their streak to come to an end.
While the Wildcats are 13-17 on the road the past few seasons, the Irish are 45-3 at home. That includes a 19-1 SU and 13-7 ATS record when playing a home game with an O/U linein the 135-139.5 range. After going through a rare rough patch, the Irish got back on track in the second half of Saturday's game. Down 35-28 at South Florida at the break, they dominated the second half, outscoring the Bulls by a 45-30 margin. I expect them to carry the momentum into today's game. The Irish won at Villanova last season. The previous year, playing at Notre Dame and laying five points, they won by a score of 93-72. I expect homecourt to again prove significant and for the Irish to cruise to another double-digit win. *10 main event |
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01-29-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | Top | 104-106 | Push | 0 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Mavericks pounded Portland when these teams met earlier in the season. However, that was at Dallas. The Blazers are a different team here at the Rose Garden. Although one could argue that the Mavs, who are further out of the race, need the game more, the Blazers also desperately need all the wins they can get. I expect homecourt to prove significant.
While the Mavs are 7-16 on the road, the Blazers are 15-8 here at home. That includes a 6-2-1 ATS (7-2 SU) record when listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. While his team has played well recently, Dallas coach Rick Carlisle knows tonight's game won't be easy. He was quoted as saying: |
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01-29-13 | Northern Iowa +1.5 v. Evansville | Top | 51-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. Evansville has home-court advantage and already won the first meeting between these teams. I still believe that Northern Iowa is the better team though. Tonight, I expect the revenge-minded Panthers to prove that point on the floor.
The Panthers have four players that average double-digits in scoring and five that average 9.5 or more. The Panthers lost by one last time out. They've been excellent off a loss though, going 3-1 SU/ATS off a conference loss. Don't be surprised when they step up and get some payback tonight. *10 best bet |
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01-29-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons OVER 201 | Top | 117-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Milwaukee to finish OVER the total. These teams saw both earlier meetings fall below the total. However, given the current form of both teams, I'm expecting considerably more points this evening.
The Bucks have seen four straight games finish above the number. They allowed a minimum of 102 points in every one of those games and an average of more than 105. Thankfully, for Milwaukee fans, they scored a minimum of 108 points in all four of those games, averaging more than 109. If the Bucks had been losing those games, they might want to start trying to slow things down and look to a different approach. Seeing as they've won four of five, there should be no urgency to change their recent "up tempo" style of play. The Pistons are off back to back "overs" of their own, most recently a 104-102 win over the Magic. They've shot better than 46% in four of their last five games, including 50.6% last time out. They should get a high number of possessions here and I expect them to score plenty of points. While the O/U line may initially seem a little high, note that the OVER is 6-3 the last couple of seasons, when the Pistons played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. During the same stretch, the OVER is also 6-3 when the Bucks have played a road game with an O/U line in the same range. That includes a 210-point affair here last season - when the line was 203.5. Last season, the first meeting at Detroit was low-scoring but the second here was high-scoring. I expect that to the case again here. *10 blue chip |
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01-29-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. With Curry having left last night's game, the Cavaliers have gone from being slight underdogs to slight favorites. I don't expect the pointspread to come into play though.
The Cavs, who had the last two nights off, are playing their best basketball of the season. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games and 4-1 SU/ATS their last five. Note that they're also 5-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. They should be fresh and they also know that they get some time off after this game. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Oakland, I expect them to be at their best. Unlike their guests, the Warriors are not well-rested. They played at Canada yesterday. They're thousands of miles away from home and playing the final leg of a road trip. While Curry's status remains uncertain at this point, I like the Cavs even if he does play and regardless of who the Warriors have in the lineup. It should be noted that the Warriors finally got Bogut in the lineup last night but that he's not expected to play tonight either. While last night's win was impressive, note that the Warriors are a dismal 9-19 ATS the last 28 times that they were off a double-digit win, 3-5 ATS their last eight in that situation. Behind another big game from Irving, the current Player Of The Week, I expect the Cavs to win their fourth straight for the first time in the "post Lebron" era. *10 best bet |
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01-28-13 | Indiana Pacers +5.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Nuggets are off three straight wins while the Pacers are off back to back losses. I expect that to lead to a very determined effort from the visiting Pacers, who will look to wrap up their road trip with a victory. Note that they're 3-1 ATS after playing their previous three (or more) on the road.
Even with a 4-point loss at Utah last time out, the Pacers are still an impressive 16-7 SU their last 23 games. The last time that the Pacers lost back-to-back games was back in early December, when they were beaten by the Thunder and by these same Nuggets. (Indiana would immediately respond to that 2-game slide with a 15-point victory.) Speaking of the earlier meeting, the Nuggets won that one by three points, winning at Indiana. The Pacers haven't forgotten that loss and will be looking for some payback here. Prior to the 2-game slide in early December, the Pacers' previous 2-game losing streak was in mid-November when they lost games on 11/13 and 11/14. They responded to that 2-game skid by winning their next game by 20 points. Even with the earlier cover at Indiana, the Nuggets are still only 5-9 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents. Their last two games against the Pacers have each been decided by four points or less. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way once again. *10 non-conf best bet |
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01-28-13 | Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic have certainly had trouble winning games. Many will see that their poor overall record and be quick to go against them here, particularly after realizing that the Magic played yesterday. I expect Orlando's best effort tonight though and feel that the line is generously high.
Many would likely be surprised to learn that the Magic are actually among the most profitable road teams in the entire league. They're 13-6 ATS away from Orlando. True, the Magic did play yesterday, a 2-point loss vs. the Pistons. Before getting too concerned about the back-to-back spot, keep in mind that the Magic had two day's off, prior to yesterday's game. So, its not like they are playing three games in four days (or 4 in 5) or anything like that. In fact, this is the first time that the Magic have played b2b games in all of 2013. So, their schedule has been very manageable of late. I don't expect fatigue to be an issue. It should also be noted that the Magic are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a road game, after having played the previous day. They beat Charlotte and Golden State outright and covered at Atlanta. This is the first game of a road trip for the Magic. Given their recent woes at home (and Orlando's strong ATS stats on the road) I believe the trip is coming at a good time. JJ Redick said. "The way we're losing is tough. But we can control our mindset, our attitude, our perspective over these last nine games before the All-Star break. We have a chance to use this road trip to get better, and we will." I believe this may prove a tough spot for the Nets. At the very least, its not a good spot to be laying such a large number. They're off back-to-back losses and they're not playing good defense right now. As coach Carlesimo said, "... we're just getting annihilated on points in the paint." For the reason, the Nets rank 28th in the league in terms of their field goal defense, opposing teams hitting 46.3% against them. Playing their first game back off a trip, with games against the Heat, Lakers and Bulls to follow, I believe the Nets may have trouble getting fully focused for a struggling Magic team which they already defeated three times back in November. The Nets have struggled as home favorites in this range and they're only 3-6 ATS when off a double-digit loss. I expect the revenge-minded Magic, who have been excellent as road underdogs in this range, to be a little more hungry tonight and for that to lead to at least another cover. *10 main event |
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01-28-13 | Pittsburgh +6 v. Louisville | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I won with the Panthers on Saturday. They absolutely dismantled Depaul. While I respect Louisville, I feel that the Panthers are providing us with excellent value again here.
While the Cardinals figure to be desperate, the Panthers are playing well and they know this is their opportunity to steal a win against a highly ranked opponent. After his team scored more than 90 on Saturday, coach Dixon noted: "Obviously we'll be ready for Monday." Pittsburgh has played the Cardinals tough here recently. Last season, the Panthers lost by three points here. The previous season, they also lost by three here. A closer look shows that nine of the last 11 meetings between these teams have been decided by seven or fewer points. The Panthers boast a balanced lineup with many players capable of stepping up to lead the team. As Trey Zeigler noted: "Any night anyone can lead us in scoring," Zeigler said. "When you have 10 guys that can bring something to the table ... " While the Cardinals have been a strong favorite overall, they haven't fared well as home favorites in this range. Off a loss last time out, their third straight, note that the Cards are now only 7-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a conference loss. They should be more than happy just to eke out a win here to "stop the bleeding" and aren't likely to be concerned with "winning big." The Panthers are 8-5 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. I expect at least another cover here. *10 Main Event |
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01-27-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 192 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland and LA to finish UNDER the total. Last night's game finished above the number, a 101-100 thriller won by the Blazers. I expect this evening's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring.
The Clippers have now scored 100 or less in five straight games. They allow an average of only 92.7 ppg on this floor. Note that UNDER is 6-3 the last nine times that the Clippers were a host in this series. This will be the sixth time that the Blazers will have played the second-of-back to back games since Christmas. Three of those five games fell below the total, most recently a 93-88 loss vs. Cleveland on 1/16. A closer look reveals that all five of those games finished with 200 or fewer combined points and that they averaged 187. The Clippers have admittedly played some high-scoring games recently, when playing the second of b2b games. However, a closer look at the last four times that they were in that situation shows that their opponents were OKC, Houston, and Golden State twice. OKC and Houston rank #1 and #2 for points scored and the Warriors are in the top 10. So, high-scoring games against those teams weren't all that unexpected. The Blazers don't score nearly as many as any of those teams though. Also, while they could obviously prove me wrong, recent history suggests that the Clippers aren't likely to put up "huge" numbers without Paul. The Blazers have seen the UNDER go 11-7-1 the past couple of seasons as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, 4-2-1 this season. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 Western Conf TOW |
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01-27-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers +4 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers got the monkey off their backs with a big win last time out. While the Thunder obviously represent a significant step up in class, I expect Kobe and co. to build some momentum and for them to be at their very best this afternoon.
The Lakers had a player's only meeting after losing against Memphis. I believe it will help them moving forward. Dwight Howard noted: "After the Memphis game, we put the past behind us. We've got to sustain it for the rest of the season. We have to play together and play for each other." Kobe, who is averaging better than 35 points per game his last five meetings with the Thunder, had this to say: "We're bonding together and we're communicating with each other very well. You can't just sweep things under the rug all the time. It's not about showing we've turned the corner. It's about doing it." The Thunder are very good - but they're not unbeatable. They've already lost twice on the current trip and seven times on the road on the season. Note that they're playing the final game of a fairly long trip. Although they had yesterday off, its been quite a grueling schedule for the Thunder for some time. Also, note that they're 0-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. One of the best things about Friday's win was that the Lakers allowed only 84 points, holding the Jazz to 42% shooting. That's the type of defense they need to play to compete with top tier teams like the Thunder. They're 3-1 ATS the last four times that they allowed 85 or less in their previous game. I expect to see a very hungry Laker team that builds off Friday's win and follows it up with AT LEAST another cover here. *10 best bet |
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01-27-13 | Richmond v. Massachusetts -165 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MASSACHUSETTS. I expect homecourt to be significant here. The Minuteman have thrived as small home favorites the past couple of seasons. The Spiders have struggled on the road.
The Minuteman are 30-11 at home the past few seasons. The Spiders are 16-19 on the road. Last year's lone meeting was played at Richmond. The Minuteman won that won by a score of 79-68. Give the Spiders credit for a big win on Thursday. However, I expect the fact that it went to overtime and the emotion that comes from beating a Top 25 opponent to catch up with them - in a negative way - here. While Richmond is off a hard-fought OT win on Thursday, the Minuteman have had a full week off to recover from a disappointing loss last time out. They should have fresh legs here. Note that they'd won nine of 10 before that setback. Playing at home, I expect the Minutemen to effectively dictate the tempo en route to a win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-27-13 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 187.5 | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Both teams saw their last game top the total. However, that's been the exception rather than the norm for each of them recently.
The Celtics have still seen two of their last three finish beneath the total. Looking back a little further finds the UNDER at 12-5 their last 17 games. The Heat have still seen six of their last 10 (and 12 of their last 20) stay below the number. The UNDER is also 8-4 the last 12 times that the Celtics were a host in this series. A closer look reveals that 11 of those 12 games finished with 188 or fewer combined points, all 12 producing 192 or less. Those 12 games averaged just 173.9 points. The Heat, who beat Detroit by 22 on Friday, have seen the UNDER go 10-4 when off a double-digit win. Going back further finds the UNDER at 53-36-3 when they were in that situation the past few seasons. The UNDER is also 10-3 the last 13 times that the Celtics had lost three or more consecutive games and 6-1 the last seven times that they allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. With the offenses potentially a little "sleepy" out of the gate and both teams playing hard playoff style defense, I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. *10 blue chip |
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01-26-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -116 | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. If you had a chance to watch Thursday's game at Phoenix, you would have seen that the Clippers are really missing Chris Paul. They've still got plenty of talent but he's the one that really makes it all work together. With their leader expected to still be out, I expect the Clippers to have real trouble again tonight.
The Blazers got back on track in a big way last time out, destroying Indiana by 20 points, behind 27 points from Aldridge. After 10 straight games which were decided by six or less, the blowout win came at a good time and gives the Blazers some much-needed momentum. Coach Terry Stotts noted this of the big win: "It was refreshing, especially since we were on the good side of it." In addition to Paul's likely absence, note that Griffin is also a bit banged-up. He's expected to play here but may be at less than 100%. The Blazers are in the "revenge" role, as the Clippers beat them here back in November. Knowing that they'll have to face these same Clippers again at LA tomorrow, I expect them to go all out to protect their homecourt tonight. The Clippers are 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. During that stretch, they were also 16-8-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. Even with the earlier loss, the Blazers are still 26-7 when facing the Clippers at the Rose Garden. I expect them to resume that homecourt series domination this evening. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-26-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 193 | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte and Minnesota to finish OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game at Minnesota back in mid-November. I'm expecting tonight's rematch to be considerably higher-scoring and feel that the number will prove too low.
Games here are averaging 199 points. Minnesota road games are averaging 194.1. The T-Wolves gave up 114 points at Washington last night. They allowed the Wizards to make 57.8% of their shots. It was the second time in three games that Minnesota's opponent shot better than 57%. Going back further finds that five of the T-Wolves' last eight opponents have made better than 52% of their shots. Including last night's game, the T-Wolves have now seen the OVER go 11-3 when matched up against a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have now allowed five of their last six opponents to reach triple-digits in scoring. The Bobcats actually find themselves favored here. That's noteworthy as we find the OVER at 10-2 the last dozen times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Playing the final game of a 4-game homestand and with a very tough road trip on deck, the Bobcats figure to want to score as many points as possible tonight. Note that the OVER is 4-0 when they'd played their previous three games at home. With an O/U line in the low 190s, note that the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 7-2 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. During the same stretch, the OVER is also 4-1 when the T-Wolves played a road game with an O/U line in the same range. I'm expecting more of the same this evening. *10 Blue Chip. |
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01-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 | Top | 80-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks eked out a win at Boston on Thursday, their second straight game decided by three points.
The 76'ers, who are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four or fewer points, are in a good scheduling spot. They had the last few nights off and they don't play tomorrow. They should be fresh and fully focused on avenging a pair of earlier losses suffered against these same Knicks. Note that they're 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. On the other hand, with Atlanta on deck tomorrow night, note that the Knicks are just 1-3 the last four times that they played the front end of back to back games. The only victory came against Charlotte. That was back in early December and the win came by only two points. The Knicks may get Felton back tonight and that should eventually make them stronger. However, he's been gone a dozen games now and working him into the lineup may not initially pay dividends. Even with Thursday's victory, note that the Knicks are only 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as favorites of four or fewer points. Philadelphia forward Thaddeus Young had this to say of the 76ers current mindset: "Somehow we have to figure it out, come together and stay together as a team. We know what the problem is. We've been in every game so far and fought back." I'll grab the points but I expect Young, Holliday and co. to rise to the occasion and to score the upset. *10 Atlantic Div. GOM |
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01-26-13 | DePaul v. Pittsburgh -16.5 | Top | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. At first glance, this line may seem a little high. However, I believe it could actually be even higher and I'm expecting a blowout.
There's a very big difference in level of talent between the top teams in the Big East and bottom ones. The Panthers are a top tier Big East team while the Blue Demons are among the worst. The Blue Demons are just 1-5 (2-4 ATS) their last six games. The lone win came against Providence, perhaps the only team worse than them in the conference this season. Last time that they played on the road, the Demons lost by 21 at Connecticut, a team Pittsburgh beat with relative ease last Saturday. Off a couple of fairly close wins and with Louisville and Syracuse on deck, I believe the Panthers will be motivated to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. The Panthers are 8-3-2 ATS (13-0 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 15.5 to 18 point range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion this afternoon. *10 personal favorite |
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01-26-13 | New Mexico v. San Diego St -4 | Top | 34-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Lobos have the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Aztecs are favored for good reason.
The Aztecs may not be ranked at the moment. However, they were not long ago and they got back on track with a big win last time out. Coach Steve Fisher noted: "We're a veteran ball club that knows how to win. This victory started on Sunday when we started watching film. We had not been practicing like a championship team should. We were better the last couple days. I'm not surprised with how we came out and played." The Aztecs are typically at their best against good teams. They're 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record, going 36-18-1ATS (41-14 SU) their last 55. The Aztecs are also 21-12 ATS the last 33 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range and 18-9 ATS (21-6 SU) their last 27 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. After getting beaten by the Lobos in last year's conference tournament final, the Aztecs have had this game circled. I expect their best effort and for that to lead to a win and cover. *10 annihilator |
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01-25-13 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | Top | 84-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers struggles have continued recently and things are getting desperate. Playing with "double-revenge" against a Jazz team which is never as good away from Utah, I expect Kobe and co. to respond with their best effort.
The Jazz have been playing well lately and they did beat Miami not long ago. However, their last three wins have come at home and the most recent two came against the likes of Cleveland and Washington. So, they fact that they've been winning was somewhat expected. Note that the Jazz are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times that they played their previous three at home. (They're 63-83-3 ATS their past 100+ in that situation.) While they did score an upset here earlier, the Jazz are only 9-15 (9-14-1 ATS) on the road. When playing away from Salt Lake City, they get outscored by a 101 to 96.2 margin, allowing opposing teams to hit more than 48% of their shots. As for the Lakers, their last three games all came on the road, most recently at Memphis and Chicago. Those aren't easy venues to win at. Their last home game came against Miami - obviously another tough opponent. Their previous two home games both resulted in double-digit victories though. Note that every Laker victory since Christmas has come by at least six points. All but one of those wins came by double-digits. Enough is enough. LA rises to the occasion and gets it done. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-25-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +9.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. I successfully played against the Thunder when they lost against the Warriors a couple of nights ago. At the time I noted that the Thunder had been going through quite a grueling schedule recently and that I thought they may not be all that fresh.
Here's an excerpt from Wednesday's writeup which includes what I said about OKC's recent schedule: "Tough spot for the Thunder. Not only did they play a late game vs. the Clippers last night, they also played an OT game in the high altitude of Denver on Sunday night. This will be their 7th game in the last 11 nights and their 11th game since January 6th. By comparison, the Warriors will be playing just their eighth game since January 5th..." The Thunder have since had a night off and they've admittedly been great at bouncing back from a loss. However, I'm still not sure that they're ready to be laying nearly double-digits on the road. Note that they're 0-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. It should also be noted that the Thunder have a date with the Lakers on deck. LA may be struggling at the moment but a game vs. Kobe and co. remains something to potentially get caught looking ahead to. The Kings do indeed struggle on the road. They're actually above .500 here at Sacramento though and have won two of three here. The Kings have played the Thunder relatively tough of late, as each of the last three meetings were decided by 11 or less. They covered at OKC in this season's only previous meeting and they're 5-2 ATS when off a game against a division opponent. Knowing they've got an extended road trip on deck, I expect the Kings to go all out with their best effort tonight and for that to lead to at least a cover. *10 best bet |
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01-25-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | Top | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. It would be easy to make a case for the Bucks. They've got a better overall record, they've had success in this series and they're 6-2 since making a coaching change. All that's been factored into the line though. I believe that the Cavs are better than their record suggests. I expect their best effort tonight and feel that the line is providing us with excellent value.
When Kyrie Irving is on top of his game, the Cavs are a different team. Indeed, they're 4-2 when the reigning Rookie of the Year tops the 30 point mark. As Byron Scott noted: "When he's aggressive, everyone picks up on that ... That's the type of player that we need out there. He's obviously capable of doing that every single night. When he's aggressive, he makes us a better basketball team." Irving had 40 last time out. The Cavs won outright vs. Boston. The Bucks have won three straight. They're an awful 46-74-7 ATS (54-73 SU) the last 127 times that they were off three straight victories though. Also just 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, I expect the Bucks to have their hands full the entire way here. *10 Central GOM |
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01-25-13 | Loyola Md v. Manhattan +3 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on MANHATTAN. Loyola-MD sits in its customary spot on top of the conference. I expect the Greyhounds to get upset this evening though.
While I respect the Greyhounds, I see them coming in a bit "complacent" here. They're off a big road win at Fairfield, the team that they faced in the finals of last year's MAAC Tournament, and they've got a showdown vs. Iona on deck on Saturday. I feel it will be easy for them to look past lowly Manhattan. That'll prove costly though. Having finally adjusted to life without Beamon, the Jaspers are starting to play well. They've covered five of their last six and they've had this game circled. Their last home game resulted in a 12 point victory. The Jaspers are 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and they're 3-1 ATS when off a SU conference loss. They're also 3-1 ATS in lined home games. Last year's game here saw Manhattan lose by two points. That was preceded by a 1-point win by the Greyhounds at Loyola-MD. Needless to say, the Jaspers could have won either of those games. They haven't forgotten. I'll gladly take the points but I look for the Japsers "to take the next step" and for them to record the outright win. *10 best bet |
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01-24-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +6.5 | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. I know the Clippers are a very good team. I'm aware that the Suns have had some trouble winning games this season. I'm also aware that the Suns played last night. Even taking those three factors into consideration, I believe that the Suns are providing us with excellent value here.
Lets start by taking a look at the three factors I mentioned. 1. Yes, when healthy, the Clippers are a very good team. However, they're not the same club without Chris Paul running the show. He's expected to be out of the lineup again tonight. 2. True, the Suns have had trouble earning victories. They won one last night though, a 106-96 win at Sacramento. They've now won two of their last four. 3. The Suns are indeed playing the second of back-to-back games. However, its also true that they had an extended layoff before last night's game. So, this is actually only their third game in the past 10 nights. So, its definitely not the most grueling of b2b spots. The Clippers are off back-to-back losses. They're 0-3 ATS their last three games. They're also 1-3 ATS when off a double-digit defeat. The Suns should have plenty of motivation. Not only have the Clippers beaten them soundly twice already this season but this is a rare home game on TNT. They're 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. I expect them to step up and improve on those stats tonight. *10 best bet |
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01-24-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 193 | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix and LA to finish UNDER the total. The Suns are off a 106-96 victory at Sacramento last night. They've quietly now held five of their last six opponents to double-digtis in scoring. The only team that hit triple-digits was Oklahoma City and the Thunder only managed 102 against them.
While last night's game landed right on the number, the Suns have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 8-1-1 their last 10 games. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-2 when playing the second of back-to-back games and 3-1 when off an upset victory. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 3-0 when the Suns have been listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also 3-0 the last three times that the Clippers were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Going back further and we find the UNDER at 10-1 the last 11 times that the Clippers were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Expected to be without Paul and off back-to-back losses, I expect the Clippers to try and emphasize improving their defensive play here. The UNDER is 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams, including a 180-point (103-77 LA) affair here on 12/23. All things considered, I feel anything above 190 is generously high. *10 blue chip |
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01-24-13 | USC +3.5 v. Arizona St | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. I've had success picking my spots to back the Trojans in recent weeks. I feel that this is another good spot to do so.
Whenever I take a small underdog, I generally need to think that they're going to win the game outright, or at least I need to believe that they've got a very serious chance of doing so. In this case, I do believe that USC has an excellent chance of winning outright. However, as the Trojans' last two games have been decided by only three combined points, a 1-point win and a 2-point loss, getting a few extra points to work with could easily prove valuable. Note that two of Arizona State's last five games were also decided by three or fewer points. Also, note that last year's game here was very close, a 4-pt win by ASU. The previous year's game here was even closer, a 2-point win by USC. The Trojans have covered three of four and four of six. I believe that they're more talented than many realize. They're also in one of their best roles, as they're 19-8 ATS the last 27 times they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. On the other hand, the Sun Devils, who are off back to back losses, are only 9-20 ATS the last 29 times that they were laying points. The Trojans have been the better team over the last week and I won't be surprised when they take this game down to the wire and score the upset. *10 best bet |
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01-23-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +2 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Tough spot for the Thunder. Not only did they play a late game vs. the Clippers last night, they also played an OT game in the high altitude of Denver on Sunday night. This will be their 7th game in the last 11 nights and their 11th game since January 6th. By comparison, the Warriors will be playing just their eighth game since January 5th.
While the Thunder have the superior overall record, the Warriors' home record (13-6) is nearly identical to OKC's 14-6 road record. While last night's game did result in a double-digit win, Durant and Collison both still saw more than 40 minutes while Westbrook and Ibaka averaged greater than 38 minutes, each playing more than 37. Even for an athletic team like the Thunder, I believe fatigue may well prove to be a factor this evening. Even with last night's victory, note that the Thunder are still 2-3 SU/ATS as road favorites of three or fewer points. The Warriors are 13-9 ATS as underdogs. The Warriors did lose a couple of games last week, when they were without Curry in the lineup. He's back now though and has scored 48 points his last two games, both of them Golden State victories. The Warriors very nearly beat the Thunder in the last meeting here, losing a 119-116 thriller last February. With the schedule in their favor, I feel that they're in good position to take the next step and score the outright win. *10 best bet |
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01-23-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
*10 GS/OKC Under the total. Analysis before 8am PST.
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01-23-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I successfully played against the Rockets on Martin Luther King Day. The Rockets were mired in a losing streak and I didn't feel that they deserved to laying such a large number on the road. They did up battling back and winning by six but that wasn't enough to cover.
The Rockets did get a win though, which was all that mattered to them. Now, they've got some much-needed confidence back. They're also back on their home floor and are now laying a much smaller number than they were on Monday. Granted, they're stepping up considerably in class, as the Nuggets are tough. However, I still feel that they're in a good spot and I expect homecourt advantage to prove significant. The Nuggets already upset the Rockets here back in early November. The Rockets have been very good as small home favorites ever since though; they're 4-1 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. Overall, they're 13-8 ATS (14-7 SU) here at Houston. On the other hand, even with their earlier win here, the Nuggets are still a poor 9-15 away from Denver. Knowing that they'll have to play a rematch at Denver before January is over, I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to build off Monday's win and to protect their homecourt with a win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-22-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 201.5 | Top | 109-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and LA to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a very high-scoring game at OKC back in November. Although 24 points were scored in OT, it was still quite high-scoring in regulation. I'm expecting considerably fewer points this evening.
The last time that these teams faced each other at LA, the O/U line was 199. That game finished 30 points below the total, a 92-77 final. Games here this season are averaging 196 points. The Clippers hold opponents to 92 points and 42.5% shooting here. They were even stingier than that their last game here, allowing 87 points. While Westbrook is expected to play, Paul is still being called questionable, as of this writing. Assuming he does play at all, its possible he may be less than 100%. Paul had just four points on 1-of-7 shooting yesterday. Coach Del Negro said: "You could see he doesn't have that extra burst like he usually has. It's nice to have him out there because he settles everything down. It's just that he can't play at the level he's used to with the injury." The last time that the Clippers played a home game, after playing the previous day, they limited the Warriors to 89 points. The Thunder lost at Denver (in OT) last time out. After their last two losses, they've allowed 84 and 85 points. It should also be noted that the Thunder have seen the UNDER go 16-8 the last 24 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range, including 5-0 the last five. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 best bet |
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01-22-13 | Orlando Magic v. Detroit Pistons -5 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. These teams have met twice already this season. They'll also play each other again on January 27, less than a week away. Knowing that they loss both of the first two meetings and knowing that the upcoming game is at Orlando, I expect the Pistons to be very determined to take care of business on their homecourt this evening.
The Pistons will face a struggling Orlando squad. The Magic are off back to back losses, one of those coming vs. lowly Charlotte. Going back further finds them with only two wins in their last 15 games. The Pistons are off a 15-point win over Boston last time out. They've now won eight of their past 12 games. Even with the earlier loss here, the Pistons have still beaten the Magic 28 of the last 39 times that the teams faced each other here. I expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. *10 personal favorite |
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01-22-13 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 49-47 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Spartans have the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Badgers are favored for good reason.
The Badgers have long been dominant at home and this typically been a very strong role for them. They're 22-6 ATS (26-2 SU) the last 28 times that that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. During the same stretch, the Spartans were an ugly 6-13 ATS (5-14 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Spartans are off an impressive 59-56 win over Ohio State. However, they're still just 3-6 ATS their last nine lined games. They're also a dismal 1-9 ATS the last 10 times that they held their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points. The Badgers lost at Illinois last time out. However, they'd won at Indiana in their previous game and they crushed Illinois by 23 in their most recent home game. The Badgers have won 12 of their last 15 home games against Top 25 teams. With revenge on their mind from last season, I expect them to deliver a solid win and cover. *10 Main Event |
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01-21-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76'ers come in with some momentum. .They have won two of three including a big comeback OT win over Toronto last time out. The Raptors have been playing well and they had a 19-point lead in the second half. So, coming back showed a lot of character. While that comeback was likely fairly taxing, the 76'ers have had the last two nights to recover. This will be the fourth time in a row that they've had two days off in between games. They should be fresh and rejuvenated with some new found confidence.
Holliday is playing great basketball for this time recently, averaging 30.7 points and 11.3 assists over the 76'ers last three games. Thaddeus Young, who had 27 points and 14 rebounds of his own said this of Holliday's game agains Toronto. "Jrue was incredible and carried us in overtime. It was a gut-check type of performance and he was there for us when we needed it in overtime.'' The Spurs won on the road last time out. However, they won by only five points and they're still just 3-7 their last 10 away from San Antonio. Only one of those three wins came by more than seven. Note that they're currently without Ginobili. Playing their fourth straight here at Philadelphia, note that the 76'ers are, 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they played three or more consecutive at home. Looking back further finds that they're 75-51-4 ATS their last 130 in that situation. The 76'ers, who are playing with revenge from a 1/5 loss at San Antonio, are 11-5 ATS the last 16 times that they were a host in this series. I expect at least another cover here. *10 best bet |
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01-21-13 | Loyola (Md.) v. Fairfield -4.5 | Top | 65-60 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. These teams just faced each other on 1/11, at Loyal-MD. I won with the Greyhounds in that matchup. However, I like the revenge-minded Stags on their home floor.
The Stags have won eight of their last 12, when in the "revenge" role. They've won 28 of their last 37 at home. During that stretch, the Greyhounds areonly 20-18 on the road. With Fairfield having failed to cover a few in a row, I believe we're getting a very fair line. Note that the Stags are 8-3 SU (5-3 ATS in lined games) the last few seaons, after failing to cover their previous three. They're 21-13 ATS (24-13 SU) their last 37 in that situation. The Stags are looking to avenge more than just the recent loss. This is the team which kept them out of the NCAA Tournament last year. Revenge is sweet. I expect a win and cover for the highly motivated home team. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-21-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Atlanta Hawks -7.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Since a New Year's Day victory, the Hawks have only won two games. Laying five points, they can beat Utah by eight on 1/11. Their next win came vs. Brooklyn on 1/16. Laying three points, they won by 14. I backed them in both of those games while avoiding them i their losses. I feel that this will be another good spot for them to break out with a big win.
While the Hawks have won 13 of 20 home games, the T-Wolves are only 6-14 on the road. When playing away from Minnesota, they allow opposing teams to hit 48% of their shots. The Hawks, who have won nine straight home meetings in this series and 11 of 12 in the series overall, are playing with "revenge" from a loss at Minnesota. While the Hawks are banged-up themselves, they've catching the T-Wolves with an even longer list of injured players including big men Kevin love and center Nikola Pekovic. Note that Pekovic.25 points and 18 rebounds in the previous game. Alexey Shved is another key player out. In addition to all the injuries, the T-Wolves are also without their coach. The T-Wolves are an ugly 39-65-2 ATS the last 100+ times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During that same stretch, the Hawks are 84-69-1 ATS when playing at home with a line in the same range. I expect the Hawks to improve on those stats with a big win and cover this afternoon. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-20-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 209 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Denver to finish UNDER the total. These teams recently faced each other at Oklahoma City. Catching the Nuggets playing the second of back-to-back games, the Thunder won that 1/16 game convincingly. The 117-97 final score finished a few buckets above the total. I expect this game to be more competitive and for that to lead to a lower combined final score.
The Thunder have seen their road games average 199.7 points. The Nuggets have seen their home games average 204.1 points. Yet, we're getting a much higher number to work with here. Prior to Wednesday's game, the Thunder had seen each of their previous divisional games stay below the number. The UNDER is now 23-17 their last 40 against divisional rivals. They've seen the UNDER go 2-1 when listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or less. I expect to stats to improve tonight. *10 Northwest TOM |
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01-19-13 | Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 187.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Golden State and New Orleans to finish UNDER the total. This O/U line is currently in the high 180s. That may initially seem low for a Golden State game. However, given the Warriors' current lineup and the venue, I feel it could easily be even lower.
The Warriors managed just 88 points last night, including a mere 15 in the fourth quarter. They'd finish with 88. Playing at New Orleans and without Stephen Curry in the lineup, I won't be surprised if they finish with even fewer points tonight. Games at New Orleans are averaging a mere 182.3 combined points this season. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 12-7 here. Last time out, playing at Boston, the Hornets held the Celtics to a paltry 78 points. Looking at their last 10 games and we find that the Hornets have help nine opponents to 100 points or less. The only game they allowed more than that was the day after New Year's (Jan 2) when they permitted 104 at Houston. Considering that the Rockets average 108.9 ppg at home, (most in the NBA) even that wasn't too bad. Off their big win over the Celtics, note that the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 18-7 the last 25 times that they were off a double-digit win, including a 3-0 UNDER mark in that situation this season. Note that the Hornets recorded only 87 points both previous times that they were off a win by 10 or more points. With the UNDER also at 7-2 when the Hornets were off an upset win, I expect points to at a premium. *10 best bet |
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01-19-13 | UNLV v. Colorado St -3 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. This is a very good conference with a number of strong teams. These are two of them. The Rebels are off a fairly impressive win at San Diego State. That will have many expecting another win here. Not me.
The Rams are stronger than many people realize. They've already hammered the likes of Washington and Virginia Tech. They won at Washington by 18 and beat the Hokies on a neutral floor by 36. They're also undefeated on their home floor. Off a dominating win over Air Force last time out, the Rams are now 24-15 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. Colorado State jumped out to a 34-19 lead at halftime and never let up. The Rams would finish with a commanding 79-40 victory and a 40-19 advantage on the boards. Note that the Rams are a perfect 9-0 SU the last nine times that they allowed 60 or fewer points, 6-1 ATS in lined games. They're 10-7-1 ATS off a conference win the past 2+ seasons. On the the hand, the Rebels typically don't respond well to a big conference win. They're 7-16 ATS the past couple of years off a conference win and just 9-17 ATS after scoring 80 or more points. The Rebels are still 6-9 ATS the last 15 times that they were underdogs and they're still only 1-4 ATS in 2013. (They're now 5-12 ATS in January the past 2+ years.) They're also 0-4 ATS the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Conversely, the Rams are 11-5 SU/ATS the last few seasons when the line was in the 140s including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark when playing at home with a line in the 140 to 144.5 range. One of those victories came over these same Rebels here last season, a 66-59 victory. I expect another win and cover here. *10 personal favorite |
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01-19-13 | Kansas v. Texas +8.5 | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Needless to say, the Jayhawks are a strong team. In fact, some of you may recall I won with them in their very last game, a blowout win over Baylor. I feel that they're laying too large a number here.
Off their big win over Baylor and with rival Kansas State on deck, it may be easy for the Jayhawks to look past a struggling Texas team. I feel that will prove costly though. True, the Longhorns are 0-3 to start conference play. They've never started 0-4 under Rick Barnes though and I believe that they're better than we've seen. I feel we can expect their best effort here. Kansas coach Bill Self noted: "It's not an uncommon scene - good teams and good programs getting off to rough starts - depending on where they are playing. But, this is different than most Texas games, I believe, because they are off to a start that isn't indicative of how great their program has been. And they'll get it back, Rick will get it back. But let's just hope that doesn't happen at our expense." While the Jayhawks are expected to have McLemore, he may be a little less than 100%. He practiced Thursday after getting hurt late in the win over Baylor. Even with the Baylor win, the Jayhawks are only 6-8 ATS when laying points. Despite their struggles, the Longhorns are still 4-3 ATS when getting points, moving to a profitable 14-8 ATS in the underdog role the past few seasons. Last year's game here came down to the wire, a 69-66 Kansas win. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10 best bet |
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01-18-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 192 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta and Brooklyn to finish UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other at Atlanta on Wednesday. The Hawks won that one in a blowout, the final combined score finishing above the total. I'm expecting a lower score in this evening's rematch.
Wednesday's game had an O/U line in the 180s. This one has climbed into the low 190s. I feel that the higher number providing us with excellent value. Not only are Atlanta road games averaging just 185.9 points this season, the UNDER is 12-6-1 when the Hawks have played on the road. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark when the Hawks played a road game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range. Over their last five road games, the Hawks have averaged only 82.2 points. The Hawks made 57.7% of their field goals on Wednesday while also hitting better than 38% from beyond the arc. Anything is certainly possible. However, when considering that the Hawks normally average only 44.3% from the field (and 37% from 3-point range) I feel that its unlikely that they'll come anywhere close to matching Wednesday's numbers. Note that they only shote 29.3% in their previous game. It should be noted that Atlanta's leading scorer Josh Smith was out on Wednesday and that he should be back in the lineup here. While he may be the team's leading scorer, each time that Smith has been out this season, the Hawks have played a fast-paced high-scoring game. Their three games without him produced 199, 209 and 204 points, the "over" going 2-0-1. With the venue having shifted, unlike Wednesday, the Nets are now favored. That's noteworthy as the UNDER is 54-32-1 the past 2+ seasons when the Hawks have been getting points, including an 8-3-1 mark this season. I feel the number is generous and I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 best bet |
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01-18-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Philadelphia 76ers -4 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors have been fighting hard and have been quite a profitable team in recent weeks. Their "competitiveness" combined with Philadelphia's recent struggles has helped in keeping this line quite low. While I respect the Raptors, I believe that the low line is providing us with excellent value on what should be a very hungry home team.
The Raptors did have yesterday off. However, they lost a heart-breaker on Wednesday and I feel that the may not yet be fully recovered. Down significantly against Chicago, they battled all the way, only to ultimately lose in OT. Off that heartbreaker, the Raptors are back on the road where they've won just four of 20 games. While the 76'ers have struggled, they're still above .500 here at home. Not surprisingly, homecourt has been significant in two of this season's previous three meetings. The teams split the two games at Toronto. However, the 76'ers won by eight in the lone meeting here at Philadelphia. Note that the 76'ers were laying 5.5 points for that game and that we're getting a better number on them here. Including that result, the 76ers are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range while the Raptors are only 1-4 SU/ATS as road underdogs in the same range. While the Raptors may be still hurting a bit from Wednesday, the 76'ers should be very fresh. They had the last two days off and have actually had two day's off after each of their last three games. The Raptors have been outworking and out-hustling some teams but I don't expect that to happen here. *10 Atlantic GOM |
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01-17-13 | Oregon v. USC +3.5 | Top | 76-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. I've had some success with the Trojans of late. They've covered three of their last four games and I've been on all three of those ATS wins, while avoiding the loss. The three covers came against Utah, Colorado and Stanford (they beat Stanford outright and crushed Utah.)
The Ducks have certainly been playing well and their recent win streak has propelled them into the Top 25. While I respect the Ducks, I don't believe there's as much of a talent gap between these teams as suggested by the standings. I also feel that the Ducks could be potentially patting themselves on the back a bit, while possibly looking past "lowly USC" and ahead to Saturday's showdown at UCLA. While backing the Trojans recently, I've been mentioning that I believe they're better than their record indicates and that they've been under-valued. Apparently USC athletic director Pat Haden felt the same way. Even after the blowout win at Utah, the school fired coach Kevin O'Neill. Haden was quoted as saying: "Despite a nice road win in our last game, I felt it was best to make a change now, with most of the Pac-12 season still ahead of us, in order to re-energize our team." While it can admittedly sometimes go either way, I expect the USC players to respond well to the change, at least for tonight. With a legit chance to take out a ranked opponent, I expect the Trojans to rise to the occasion, stepping up and earning AT LEAST a cover. *10 best bet |
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01-17-13 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. After avoiding them during their skid, I've successfully backed the Lakers each of their last two games. Both of those resulted in blowout victories. Those were against lesser teams, so obviously the Heat represent a significant step up in class. I believe that the Lakers will be up for the challenge though and I expect them to continue their current "winning streak" for another day.
While the Lakers had last night off, the Heat were busy beating up on the Warriors. True, that game wasn't that taxing, as the Heat were in cruise control by the fourth quarter and the starters got some added rest. However, they still had to play. Wade, Chalmers, Bosh and Allen still played at least 26 minutes while Lebron played more than 30. While the Heat are certainly capable of winning in a back-to-back spot, I do think the fact the Lebron "made history" last night (youngest player to reach 20,000) could be cause for a potential letdown, if only a very slight one. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the Heat will be playing their third game in four nights and they're playing the final game of a 6-game road trip. Note that Miami is a surprisingly poor 4-10-1 ATS the past 15 times that it was listed as a road underdog of three or fewer points. Lebron always plays with a chip on his shoulder and will surely want to try and get the better of Kobe on national TV. However, the same can be said of Kobe and its the Lakers who need this game more. The Lakers had recently stumbled against some "elite" competition and they're still trying to get themselves back in the playoff race. A victory over the defending champs on national TV would make a statement that they're officially "back," capable of beating top tier teams and that the "new era" is now really underway. Of course, the "W" is the standings is also important, particularly with the Lakers' next three games coming on the road. Kobe had this to say: "It's a good measuring stick for us to see how much we've improved since last week, when we played against several top teams and they all beat us. This is a big test with the defending champs coming to town." While Nash and Howard are settling in nicely, Gasol is also expected to return tonight. For all their struggles, lets keep in mind that the Lakers still have a better record at home (12-9) than the Heat do on the road. (Miami is now 9-9 away from home.) I expect Kobe and co. to "pass the test," covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-17-13 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 205 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA and Miami to finish OVER the total. We know that the Heat can play defense. They demonstrated that last night, completely shutting down the Warriors. That result, combined with the fact that the Lakers have played a few "unders" in a row, are among the factors keeping this O/U line reasonably low. I believe it will prove to be too low.
There will arguably be more "star power" than ever between these two clubs tonight and I expect the elite players to do their thing on the offensive end of the floor, perhaps seeing one star trying to outdo another. Note that the OVER is 9-6 the last 15 times that the Heat were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Heat averaging better than 102 points per game, note that the Lakers have seen the OVER go 12-4-1 when facing an opponent which averages 99 or more ppg. The Heat struggled offensively last Thursday night on TNT. I feel they'll be motivated to perform better on that end of the ball tonight. They'll also know that they're going to score a lot to keep up with the "new look" Lakers, who may have Gasol back. While they may have scored "only" 104 last time out, the Lakers have now recorded triple-digits in points in seven consecutive games. Now healthy and with a far more offensive minded coach, this is a different team from the one that we saw at the beginning of the season, or the one that the Heat remember. I expect a relatively fast tempo and a high-scoring game. *10 Blue Chip |
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01-17-13 | Michigan v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams are off to great starts. However, both lost last time out. Playing at home, I expect the Gophers to be the team which bounces back.
The Gophers now have two losses. On the other hand, the Wolverines are coming off their first defeat. That alone will have many favoring Michigan. However, I actually believe that will favor Minnesota. The Gophers have already had to deal with failure. They've already successfully bounced back from a loss. (After losing vs. Duke back in November, Minnesota responded with a 9-point win over Memphis in its next game.) On other had, the Wolverines had thoughts of going undefeated. Losing that first game, after being perfect so long, can be difficult. I believe that last year's games will provide some extra motivation for the Gophers. They very easily could have been 2-0 against the Wolverines last year but instead went 0-2. Note that neither game was on this floor. Note that the Gophers are a physical team, one which leads the conference in offensive rebounds and that they're undefeated at home. Michigan coach John Beilein noted: "We could have lost both games very easily last year. They were both last-second games. It's another great opportunity for us to grow. ... It is all about the process, and the journey and the process are what leads you to the end." The Wolverines are only 5-12-2 ATS (3-16 SU) the last 19 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Don't be surprised when they lose their second straight. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-16-13 | Washington Wizards v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 206.5 | Top | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento and Washington to finish UNDER the total. The Kings have been on an "over" streak recently. That streak has helped in providing a generously high O/U number tonight. I believe that it will prove to be too high.
While the Kings have indeed been a high-scoring team, their games are still averaging "only" 201.3 points. True, Sacramento home games are averaging more (206.3). However, we also need to consider that Wizards' road games are averaging a mere 179.7 points. Indeed, the Wizards average only 90.2 points per game including a measly 84 away from Washington. To give that some perspective, note that the Pacers are the only other team which averages less than 90 ppg on the road and their 88.6 is still significantly more than Washington averages. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 11-5 in Washington road games. Note that the UNDER is also 11-5-1 when the Wizards have matched up against another team with a losing record. Additionally, while we have to go back a couple of seasons, note that the UNDER is 12-5-1 the last 18 times that the Wizards were off a double-digit win, 3-1 when they'd been off three consecutive victories. After limiting Orlando to 91 points last time out and Atlanta to 83 in their previous game, the Wizards have now held five of their six opponents to double-digits in scoring. The only team that reached triple-digits during that stretch was Brooklyn on 1/4 and that game went to Double-OT. The Nets only had 93 in regulation. That was the only time in 19 games that they allowed more than 103 points. All things considered, I feel this number is too big. *10 best bet |
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01-16-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -4 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. After back-to-back road losses including an embarrassing 97-58 blowout at Chicago on Monday, I expect the Hawks to be in an extremely foul mood here. I said the same thing the last time that they played here (as they were also off b2b road losses) and the Hawks rewarded me with an 8-point victory over the Jazz. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Hawks to again bounce back with a badly needed win and cover.
While the Hawks have had trouble on the road of late, they've still won four of their last five at home. All four wins came by a minimum of seven points. They've now won 11 of their last 15 here. While the Hawks had last night off, the Nets were involved in a hard-fought game vs. pesky Toronto. They'll be playing their third game in four nights here. Note that the Nets are just 1-5 SU/ATS when playing a road game, after playing the previous night. Overall, they're just 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they played the second of back to back games. I like that this is the front-end of a home-and-home series. The Hawks are desperate and know they need to defend their home floor. The Nets are potentially a little weary and also potentially patting themselves on the back a bit. They know they'll get a chance to beat these same Hawks at Brooklyn on Friday and may not be quite as hungry here, as a result. The Hawks are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were off a double-digit loss. They've dominated the Nets here at Atlanta and I expect that to continue for at least another night. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-15-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Lakers snapped their skid in a big way on Sunday night, blowing out Cleveland. While the Bucks are having a better season than the Cavs, I feel that they're another team which the Lakers should be able to handle.
This season's Bucks, who are averaging 96.5 points per game, have had trouble keeping up with the league's better offensive teams. In fact, they're just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS when matched up against teams which score 99 or more points per game. The Lakers average 103.4 and have scored 99 or more in 15 straight games. The Bucks have also long had trouble with the Western Conference. In fact, they're a dismal 19-40 SU/ATS against teams from the West the past few seasons, including a 2-9 ATS (3-8 SU) mark this season. While Gasol remains out, the Lakers got Dwight Howard back last time out. As Steve Nash noted: It's great to have Dwight back. He's obviously huge for our team. We need him down there anchoring the defense and drawing a crowd on offense." Note that Howard averaged 27.3 points and 16.7 rebounds in his last three matchups against the Bucks, all with Orlando. Kobe had this to say: "We obviously ran into a tough patch last week. We were struggling, were decimated by injuries and we just so happened to play some of the top teams in the league. Now here's an opportunity to really pick it up and get going." When stuck in a losing streak, a big win can do wonders for a team. I expect the Lakers' confidence to be high here and for them to "pick it up and get going" en route to another win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-15-13 | Northern Iowa +13 v. Creighton | Top | 68-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. The Bluejays are a very good team. Having the reigning Missouri Valley Conference player (Doug McDermott) helps. That said, the Panthers are a solid team and they had success in limiting McDermott last season. I believe the line will prove to be too high.
The Panthers limited McDermott to less than 20 points each time that they faced him last season. Jake Koch, now a senior, was a big part of that. Koch, both taller and heavier than McDemott, leads the Panthers in both steals and rebounds. Having limited McDermott to 14 and 18 points, the Panthers were able to play the Bluejays very tough last season. Both games were decided by a mere three points, the home team winning each. Going back further finds that these teams have met nine times (3 times in the 2011 season) since 2009. Northern Iowa won five of those games, four of the wins coming by eight or less. All of Creighton's four victories came by single-digits, an average margin of victory of only five. The Panthers may only be 2-2 SU in 2013. However, both losses came by four or fewer points. Additionally, they're off a momentum and confidence-building 84-53 destruction of Bradley. After the big win, Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson, who has ties to Creighton coach Greg McDermott, had this to say: "We just needed a little bit of bounce in our step." While the Bluejays are 5-7 ATS the last dozen times that they were a home favorite of greater than 12 points, the Panthers are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15 range, 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they were road underdogs of greater than a dozen. The Panthers won't be able to stop McDermott. However, they should be able to do a much better job than Missouri State just did. I expect that to allow them to keep it relatively close the entire way, giving the Bluejays and their fans a much tougher game than they were probably expecting. *10 best bet |
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01-15-13 | Toronto Raptors +7 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 106-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. These teams have faced each other twice already this season. The Nets managed to win those games. However, neither victory was easy; both were decided by seven or fewer points. I expect the revenge-minded Raptors to give their hosts all that they can handle again here.
The Raptors really felt that they let last month's meeting at the Air Canada Centre, a game they led by eight at halftime, get away from them. They believe that they can play with this team and I expect them to come in both confident and motivated. Dating back to last month's meeting at Toronto, the Raptors have won 10 of 14 games. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record on the road, too. The lone loss came at San Antonio, the day after Christmas. Granted, the Nets have been playing very well recently. However, they've also had a pretty favorable recent schedule. They did beat a good Indiana team last time out. However, they were playing with rest and the Pacers were in a back-to-back spot. Prior to that, the Nets previous four opponents had been Phoenix, Philadelphia, Sacramento and Washington. None of those four teams have played nearly as well as Toronto in recent weeks. (To their credit, they did beat OKC before that.) Having already beaten the Raptors twice and perhaps patting themselves on the back a bit from the recent win streak, I feel the Nets may not be quite as focused as their guests here. Note that the Nets play tomorrow, the first leg of a home and home series vs. Atlanta. The Raptors have tomorrow off. While the Raptors are a non-factor in the playoffs, the Nets and Hawks are currently #4 and #5 in the Eastern standings and have very similar records. So, that could be potential cause to be "looking ahead." Furthermore, note that the Nets are 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played the front end of back-to-back games. The only one of those five games that resulted in a win of greater than two points came against Charlotte, the worst team in the league. The Raptors did suffer a disappointing loss last time out. They're 33-27 ATS the past couple of seasons when off a double-digit loss though the Nets are 9-13 ATS off a double-digit win, during the same stretch. With the Nets also only 3-5 ATS as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, I'm grabbing the points. *10 best bet |
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01-14-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184.5 | Top | 99-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis and LA to finish UNDER the total. These team faced each other back on Halloween. Playing at home, the Clippers earned a 101-92 victory. I expect this evening's rematch to finish with a lower combined final score.
The last time that the Grizzlies played with "revenge" was this past Friday, when they hosted the Spurs. That 101-98 game did finish above the total. However, it still wasn't that high-scoring, when considering that it went to OT. Even with that result, the UNDER remains a lucrative 7-3 the last 10 times that the Grizzlies attempted to avenge an earlier loss. These two teams allow fewer points per game than any other team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies allow 89.7 points per game. The Clippers allow 92.3. They also both rank in the top six in the NBA in terms of defensive field goal percentage. Opponents of the Clippers hit 43.3% of their shots while opponents of the Grizzles hit 43.4%. Additionally, it should be noted that these teams are #1 and #2 in the entire NBA in terms of steals. The Grizzlies managed a paltry 83 points at Dallas on Saturday, getting blown out as favorites. While some teams might respond to an effort like that by going all out offensively, Memphis isn't typically one of these teams. In fact, the UNDER is 21-9 the last 30 times that the Grizzlies scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Even better, during the same stretch, the UNDER is 22-7-1 when the Grizzlies were off an upset loss. In other words, they've shown a strong tendency to respond to games like Saturday's by playing a low-scoring game next time out. Counting Saturday's game as a "push," the Grizzlies, who are small favorites here, have seen the UNDER go 19-6-1 when laying points. (The UNDER is also 2-0 when the Clippers were road underdogs of three or fewer points.) The Clippers' last game on this floor was last May, in the playoffs. That game finished with a mere 154 points, an 82-72 victory for LA. The previous game here had produced just 172 points. Including those results the UNDER is 5-2 the last seven times that the Clippers played here. With two top tier defensive teams playing a game with playoff-like intensity, I'm expecting those stats to improve here. *10 best bet |
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01-14-13 | NC-Greensboro +4.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 70-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC GREENSBORO. The Mountaineers have been excellent as underdogs this season. However, I don't believe that they're ready to be laying this many points against what I feel may well be a superior Spartans squad.
Playing without Trevis Simpson, the Spartans lost last time out. However, that defeat came by only three points (as a 7 point dog) and they'd won their previous game by 39. While the Spartans are 11-8 ATS off a conference loss, the Mountaineers are 8-11 ATS the past couple of seasons off a conference win. These teams both faced Virginia Tech back in November. I find it revealing that the Mountaineers were 19-point underdogs against the Hokies while the Spartans were only 5-point underdogs, a few days earlier. Granted, the venues were different. However, a 14-point difference in lines is significant. The Spartans have won back-to-back games in this series, most recently a 10-point win in the conference tournament last March. Note that three of the previous four meetings were decided by four or fewer points. I believe this one could again easily come down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Southern Conf. GOY |
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01-13-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. Enough is enough. The Lakers have lost six straight, failing to cover in five of those games. A closer look shows that their last five games have come against the likes of OKC, San Antonio, Denver, Houston and the Clippers. Needless to say, the Cavaliers represent a significant step down in class.
True, the Lakers are still without Gasol and Howard. Defeating elite teams without those two bigs is going to be challenging. Beating a Cleveland team which is 9-29 (5-17 on road) and which is without its own big (Varaejo) should be an entirely different matter. Coach D'Antoni knows that the time is now and this team needs to take advantage of this very winnable game. He was quoted as saying: "I told the team, the biggest thing is our season starts Sunday. We've got to make a run. We've got one shot at it, and everybody needs to get ready mentally and physically. We won't be mathematically out of it Tuesday if we don't do it Sunday, but it has got to turn around somewhere. And we have to make our stand and do it. I am an optimist and I think it can happen." Both teams had Saturday off. While the Lakers also have tomorrow off, the Cavs will be playing at Sacramento. That's noteworthy as they're just 7-13 AT (5-15 U) the last 20 times that they played the front end of back-to-back games. That includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark their last five in that situation, the lone victory coming by just two points vs. lowly Charlotte. Playing with revenge from a loss at Cleveland last month and desperate to snap their skid, I expect the Lakers to step up and "make their stand" with a big win and cover. *10 Non-Conf GOM |
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01-12-13 | Houston Rockets v. Philadelphia 76ers +1 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. This should be an excellent spot for the 76'ers to break their losing streak. While Philadelphia had the last two nights off, the Rockets were busy getting blown out at Boston last night. Not only will they be playing their second game in two nights here, they'll also be playing their fourth game in the past five, all four of those games in different cities.
The Rockets, 7-10 away from Houston, are 4-6 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, most recently losing by nine at New Orleans. They're now 7-13 SU/ATS their last 20 in that situation. These teams met at Houston about a week before Christmas. In that game, the Rockets were "fresh," as they had the previous night off. The 76ers came in off a game the previous night and got smoked. With the shoe now on the other foot, I expect the revenge-minded 76ers to bounce back with a badly needed victory. *10 best bet |
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01-12-13 | Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. I successfully played against the Jazz last night. They played well most of the game but folded against a determined Atlanta team in the fourth quarter. That figures to be a rather deflating loss and I look for the Jazz to stumble again tonight.
The Pistons also played last night. However, the won big at Milwaukee. They've now quietly won five of six. The lone loss came here vs. Charlotte in their last game though. So, they should be hungry to atone for that setback tonight. While its true that both teams are playing in a b2b spot, the Pistons have the schedule in their favor. Not only are they playing at home but they also had four nights off, prior to last night's game. Really, the schedule has been very manageable for the Pistons for some time as they haven't played back-to-back games since 12/21 and 12/22. (They were 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning by 41 combined points.) They should still be relatively fresh here. On the other hand, the Jazz will be playing their third game in four nights. They're just 3-6 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. This will be their sixth game in nine days. Fatigue may be a factor, particularly for a team dealing with injury issues in the backcourt. All things considered, this number seems more than fair. *9 personal favorite |
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01-12-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Indiana Pacers OVER 186.5 | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. The Pacers have been on an extended "under" streak. Facing the defensively challenged Bobcats, I expect it that streak to come to an end tonight.
Admittedly, the Pacers are not a high-scoring team. They check in averaging only 90.9 ppg. (That number climbs to 94.2 at home.) Offensively challenged teams tend to view the Bobcats as an opportunity to pad their stat sheets though and I look for the Pacers to have that view as well. The fact that they lost at Charlotte earlier combined with the fact that they scored less than 90 points in each of their last two games, should have the Pacers ready to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. Note that the OVER is a lucrative 31-13 the last 44 times that Charlotte faced a team which averaged 91 or fewer points, including a 10-5 mark the last 15. The Bobcats, who were blown out at Toronto last night, have allowed 99, 112, 101 and 106 points their past four games. While the offense (unfortunately) didn't show up last night, the Bobcats had reached triple-digits in each of their previous three games. For the season, the OVER is 6-3 when Charlotte has played the second of b2b games. That includes a 5-1 OVER record their last six in that situation. Note that ALL six of those final combined scores would have finished above this relatively low number. Those six games had scores of 193, 198, 225, 203, 234 and 214. That's an average of more than 210 points per game. We won't need nearly that many here but I won't be at all surprised if we get there. *10 blue chip |
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01-12-13 | USC +4 v. Utah | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. The Utes have been a covering machine when listed as underdogs this season. However, they're favored here and I'm not convinced that they're the better team.
I won with Trojans in their last game, a cover at Colorado. I also won with them when they beat Stanford recently. As I've been saying when backing them in those games, I feel that this is a solid team which is currently under-valued. I believe that's still the case here. This has long been a winning role for USC. Indeed, the Trojans are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. It was exactly one year ago to the day that these teams last met. Laying 11 points, the Trojans won by 17. While that was at USC, don't be surprised to see the Trojans step up with another outright win. *10 Pac-12 GOM |
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01-12-13 | Butler v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 79-73 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAYTON. As I write this, Butler is a very slight favorite. I understand the book's need to balance action. So, if that number achieves this for them, than its the correct one. However, as far as I'm concerned, my numbers (which aren't trying to balance action and only reflect what I believe will happen) have Dayton favored.
The Flyers are 35-11 on this floor the past few seasons, 7-2 this year. Note that both losses here came by a single point. They already lost to the other conference newcomer (at VCU) last time out and should be extremely motivated to avoid letting it happen again. Of course, the chance to defeat a ranked opponent is always nice as well. For all their success, the Bulldogs are still only 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were road favorites of three or fewer points. Five of those resulted in SU losses, which is what I'm expecting here. *9 False Fav GOW |
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01-11-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -7 | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I like how this one sets up for the home side. The Warriors, who had last night off, were beaten here on Wednesday, a rare home loss. On the other hand, the Blazers are off an "upset" win over Miami last night on TNT.
The Blazers did beat the T-Wolves when playing the second of b2b games recently and have admittedly been respectable in that situation overall this season. However, they still have just five wins their last 14 times in that situation, since last year. More importantly, a closer look reveals that they've been very fortunate to play poor or mediocre opponents when playing the second of b2b games. Prior to win vs. Minnesota, they were beaten 102-79 at Toronto, when playing the second of b2b games. Additionally, note that Portland is just 2-7-1 ATS when off an "upset" win. Not only is a TV win over the defending champions cause for a potential, letdown but the Blazers figure to find their hosts in a foul mood. The Warriors have been at their best when off an "upset" loss. They're 12-7 ATS their last 19 in that situation, going 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in that situation. The Warriors are still 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with a big win. *10 Top West. Conf Report. |
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01-11-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both these offenses, I feel that this number will prove too high.
I did recently successfully play on the Cavs to finish "over" the total in their game at Chicago. That game had an O/U line of only 186 though and I had reason to believe that the Bulls would be happy to push the pace. In this case, we're getting an extra 20 or so points to work with. Obviously, that's significant. Additionally, they're catching a Denver team which should be looking to deliver a strong defensive performance. (Karl had commented he was disappointed with the defensive energy early in the Wednesday's game.) Note the that the UNDER is 47-37-5 the past few seasons, after the Nuggets had allowed 105 or more points their previous game. The Cavs are off a dominant defensive effort of their own, limiting Atlanta to 83 points last time out. Even with their high-scoring game at Chicago, their road games are still averaging 195.3 points. That's a little higher than their average score at Cleveland but still well below this number. Meanwhile, Denver home games are averaging 201.3, the UNDER going 9-5. Again, considerably lower than this number. Speaking of that high number, note that the UNDER is 17-9-1 the last 27 games here when the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. That includes Cleveland's visit here last season. That game had an O/U line of 208 and finished with 199. Don't be surprised if this one stays below the 200 mark once again. *10 best bet |
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01-11-13 | Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks -4 | Top | 95-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks don't have a very good pointspread record at home this season and they're currently mired in a slump. However, they've still won 11 of 17 home games and they're not laying a very large number here. Facing a Utah team which is only 8-14 (8-13-1 ATS) on the road, I expect the Hawks to break through with a much needed win and cover.
Off four straight losses, including a double-digit blowout at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Hawks should be in a nasty mood. In fairness, three of those losses were on the road and the lone home game came against Boston, after they'd just played an exhausting game the previous night, losing by a point at Detroit. Al Horford noted: "It's about energy, man, and we need to defend better.'' Josh Smith added: "We've got to get back to playing beautiful basketball.'' Tonight, the Hawks are playing with some rest, as they had last night off. They're 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) off a double-digit loss this season. Only one of those four games came at home (12/22 vs. Chicago) and the Hawks won that one by 17 points, when laying four. I expect the Hawks, who have taken five of six vs. the Jazz, to bounce back with another convincing win and cover here. *10 personal favorite |
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01-11-13 | Fairfield v. Loyola Md -2 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOYOLA-MARYLAND. These teams faced each other in the MAAC Championship game last season and a rematch this season is entirely possible.
Led by Derek Needham, the Stags have played well so far this season. They know this is a big game and would clearly love to get some payback, after the Greyhounds kept them out of the NCAA Tournament with a 48-44 win last March. I believe that the Stags will have to wait for their revenge though. (They'll get another chance in 10 days, when these teams play at Fairfield.) The Stags lost at Niagara last time out and have been on the road since before Christmas. This will mark their fifth straight road game, a span that went through both Christmas and New Year's. Going back further finds that 13 of Fairfield's 16 games have been played away from home. Give the Stags credit for winning eight of those away/neutral games. However, don't be surprised if they're a little road weary here. After Needham, I'm not sold on this team's depth. I expect it to catch up with them here against the defending conference champs. Note that the Stags are now 0-6 ATS the last six times that they'd played three or more consecutive road games. Speaking of winless records, the Stags are also 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. The Greyhounds are off back to back wins, most recently crushing St. Peters by 16. They've now won 17 of their last 25 home lined games. I expect the defending champion Greyhounds (who leave to the Patriot League after this season) to flex their muscles here, covering the small number and serving notice that they're still the team to beat - at least for now. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-10-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings OVER 205.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas and Sacramento to finish OVER the total. The Mavericks saw last night's game (99-93 loss) at LA finish below the total, their second straight "under" and the third straight game that they failed to reach triple-digits. Facing a defensively-challenged Sacramento team, the Mavs should be happy to push the pace. The Kings have allowed 113 points in each of their last two games and they allow more than 102 per game on the season.
The same could be said of the Kings. They've had back-to-back poor offensive performances. Now, they'll face a defensively challenged Dallas team (The Mavs allow 104.4 ppg on the road) and they should also be happy to "get into a shootout." Note that the OVER is 15-5 the last 20 times that the Kings scored 85 or fewer points in their previous game. Currently, the Kings have seen three straight and eight of nine top the total. The OVER is 4-1 when they've played with two day's rest in between games. While the line may seem high, note that the Mavs have seen the OVER go 9-3 the last 12 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, including 3-0 the last three. The last three meetings between these teams produced 207, 210 and 215 points. I expect another high-scoring affair. *9 annihilator |
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01-10-13 | USC +9 v. Colorado | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. With all due respect to Colorado, I feel that this line is too high.
The Trojans may have only won three of their last six games. However, all three of the losses were by eight or fewer points. I believe that they're a little under-valued at the the moment. The Buffaloes nearly knocked off Arizona but still lost. They followed that up with another loss at Arizona State. Note that they've now played eight games which were decided by 10 or fewer points. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than many will be expecting. *9 best bet |
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01-10-13 | Rider v. Manhattan -3.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MANHATTAN. Losing George Beamon was certainly a blow to the Jaspers. He's been out more than a month now though. I believe they've still got more than enough to take care of business here.
Manhattan was an 11-point favorite and lost outright vs. Rider here last season. That result should ensure the Jaspers don't take the Broncs lightly. Note that this year's Rider team lost its best player (Gadson) and has a new head coach. The Jaspers are 3-1 ATS as favorites. They've covered the spread in back to back games and I look for them to get it done again here. *9 roast |
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01-09-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I quite like how this one sets up for the home team. Without question, the Grizzlies are a solid team. However, they're typically not quite as good away from Memphis. They're also dealing with some rumors surrounding Rudy Gay. That could prove a distraction, as trading him would likely be seen by the players and fans as a sign that management didn't believe the current roster could win the West. Either way, winning here at Oakland has not been easy this season as the Warriors are 11-4 on this floor. I expect the Grizzlies to find their hosts fully focused and ready to play. The Warriors lost last time out. However, they'd previously been playing very well, going 4-0 SU/ATS their previous four. Plus, the loss came on the road and against the Clippers, a team which they had just beaten. The Warriors have since had the past three day's off. Some teams don't fare well with extra rest in between games. The Warriors haven't been one of those teams though. They're 4-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. The last time that the Warriors played with three day's rest was when they crushed the Clippers by 21 points here. They also won by 11 at Utah, which typically isn't an easy place to play, last time in that situation. Prior to that, they beat Denver. Before that, they beat Atlanta. So, that 4-0 SU/ATS record with extra rest has come against some tough opposition. Speaking of tough opposition, the Warriors are an impressive 10-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. They're also 4-1 ATS off a double-digit loss and 5-0-1 ATS After allowing 105 or more points. The Warriors are playing with "revenge," as the Grizzlies beat them here. As noted, that hasn't happened often. They're also catching the Grizzlies playing the third leg of a road trip and potentially looking ahead to San Antonio, who they host on Friday. Add it all up and I expect a win and cover for the home team. *10 Personal Favorite
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01-09-13 | Tulsa v. Marshall -5 | Top | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARSHALL. The Herd are admittedly off to a dismal start at the betting window. Their poor ATS record has kept this line lower than it could easily have been though. I believe it will prove to be too low and that tis will be the game that the Herd step up and earn a cover. This has been one of Marshall's better roles in recent seasons. The Herd are 23-12-2 ATS (32-5 SU) the last 37 when listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 79-61 victory over Tulsa, when laying four points, here last season. I'm expecting a similar result tonight. *10 personal favorite
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01-09-13 | Louisville v. Seton Hall +10.5 | Top | 73-58 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL. Obviously the Cardinals are a very good team. However, this is a high line and I believe that the Pirates, although still a little short-handed, are better than they're being credit for. Louisville isn't exactly healthy either as sophomore forward Chane Behanan, averaging better than 11 points and better than seven rebounds, suffered a left high ankle sprain in practice on Monday. As Pitino noted: "Without Chane, we'll have to make some adjustments." The Pirates have shot very well from beyond the arc, hitting at least nine 3-pointers in six straight games. In fact, they and lead all Big East teams in 3-point makes (133) and attempts (348) while sitting second at 38.2 percent. While the competition admittedly hasn't been anything like what they'll see here, the Pirates have been very tough on this floor. Their recent loss at Notre Dame was their only defeat of greater than seven points all season all season. We're getting even more points to work with here than we were for that game, despite the fact the the Pirates are now at home. I believe that's providing excellent value and I look for the Pirates to step up and provide their high profile guests with a tougher test than most will be expecting. *10 Main Event
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01-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers -1 | Top | 109-89 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76er's have lost three straight. However, all those came on the road, including games at San Antonio and OKC. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win here.
The recent 3-game slide came at the end of a long road trip. In fact, the 76ers haven't played at home since 12/21 - they won that game (vs. Atlanta) by 18 points. Needless to say, the 76ers, who have won eight of their last 12 here, should be happy to be home. They've had a couple of day's in between games to catch up on some rest, "chores," and to get adjusted to being back. Note that the 76ers are 4-2 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Nets have also had a couple of day's off in between games - although they arguably didn't need the break as much. Either way, they're only 1-3 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Admittedly, the Nets come in playing well, having won three straight and five of six. (Their winning streak combined with the 76ers' current skid are helping to keep this line the way it is.) One of those wins came at OKC. So, that was certainly impressive. Then again, the Thunder just lost vs. the Wizards last night - so, they certainly aren't unbeatable. A closer look shows that the Nets' other four victories came against Sacramento, Washington, Cleveland and Charlotte. Those four teams are a combined 34-90. So, give them credit for the recent wins - but lets not start calling them a "elite" team quite yet. With an O/U line in the high 180s, note that the 76ers are 17-8 ATS (18-7 SU) the last 25 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 185 to 189.5 range. These teams played a very close one at Brooklyn just before Christmas, the Nets eking out a 3-point win, the 76'ers covering. Finally playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded 76ers to get some payback. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-05-13 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 91-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. These teams have met twice so far this season. The home team won both games, the Nuggets covered each time. The Jazz eked out a 2-point win at Salt Lake City. However, the Nuggets blew them out here at Denver.
No real surprise there, as both these teams are MUCH better on their home floor. The Jazz won on the road last night. However, they're still 7-13 on the road. On the other hand, even with a loss here last time out, the Nuggets, who had last night off, are 10-2 (9-3 ATS) here at Denver. The Jazz are 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that they played the second of b2b games. For the season, they're 3-5 SU/ATS in that situation. The three wins came against Orlando, Washington and a home game vs. Phoenix. None of those are good teams. The five losses came against Indiana, Memphis, Houston, Sacramento and San Antonio. All five defeats came by a minimum of eight points, four coming by double-digits. Playing in the altitude of Denver against what figures to be an angry Nuggets team, I expect the Jazz to get blown out once again. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-05-13 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia -4 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. These teams already faced each other once this season. That was technically a non-conference game though, so this will be the Mountaineers' first official game as a member of the Big 12. That should have the players and fans a little extra fired up. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Sooners won the earlier meeting.
Homecourt can't be ignored here. The Sooners are 3-20 their last 23 road lined games, going just 8-15 at the betting window. During the same period, the Mountaineers have won 21 of 28 home lined games. They're 5-0 here this season, outscoring teams by a 76.8 to 67.2 margin. They'll face an Oklahoma team which recently lost to lowly Stephen Austin. The Mountaineers have failed to cover a few in a row. However, they've still won those games and those ATS losses have worked in our favor by keeping the line low. I expect them to get the new era started off with a win, covering that low number along the way. *9 annihilator |
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01-05-13 | Towson v. Drexel -10 | Top | 69-66 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on DREXEL. The Dragons struggled at the betting window in November and for the first portion of December. They got the new year started with an impressive 77-60 win at Georgia State last time out though and are currently playing well. They've been underdogs in each of their last five games and they've won three of those outright. Now 16-5 ATS in January the past few seasons, they're taking a significant step down in class. Indeed Towson State has won just three of its last 34 road lined games.
The last meeting between these teams was almost exactly one year ago. Drexel won that 1/4/2012 game by a score of 60-27. I expect a double-digit win this afternoon. *10 Top Colonial Athletic Report |
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01-05-13 | Georgetown v. Marquette -3 | Top | 48-49 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARQUETTE. Georgetown comes in with the higher ranking However, I believe that the Golden Eagles are favored for good reason.
Georgetown is ranked for good reason and with its strong defense, does deserve respect. That said, the Hoyas haven't played since way back on 12/22. That's a long layoff when factoring in Christmas and New Year's. Now, potentially dealing with some early rut, they have to play at a very hostile environment. The Golden Eagles are off a momentum-building win over UConn in their big opener (hit tying shot at buzzer to force OT and won by 6) and they've now won 17 straight at home - that's the sixth longest streak in the country. They'll have their coach back (was gone for 1 game) and I expect them to be fully fired up at the opportunity to knock off a ranked opponent. Assistant coach Brad Autry, said this about Marquette: "I'm just ecstatic because I feel like we've turned a corner into who we are with this team. I think the players feel that as much as anything." The Golden Eagles are 15-5 ATS in January the past couple of years, the Hoyas are only 5-11 ATS during the same time. The Golden Eagles beat the Hoyas by double-digits last season and 4-1 SU/ATS the last five series meetings here. They're catching Georgetown playing its first true road game of the season. I expect another win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-04-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 197.5 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto and Sacramento to finish UNDER the total. These teams met last month at Sacramento. Tyreke Evans scored 23 points, including a pair of late 3-pointers to lead the Kings to a 107-100 victory. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring rematch. For starters, Tyreke Evans won't be around this time. That's just one of many factors why I'm expecting a lower-scoring contest here. The Kings only score 92.2 ppg on the road, hitting just 41.1% from the field. The Raptors are stingier at home. They allow 94.4 ppg here. Games at Toronto are averaging 193.7 points on the season. The Raptors have been great defensively lately. They allowed 79 points last time out. In their previous game, they gave up 97. That's ELEVEN straight games that they've given up 100 or less. The Raptors have seen the UNDER go 13-7 the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They've also seen the UNDER go 25-12 the last few seasons, when they were favored, including 5-2 this season. All things considered, I believe the number is generous. *10 best bet
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01-03-13 | Stanford v. USC +3 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. The Cardinal come in as only slight favorites here and many bettors likely won't be able to resist. I'm expecting the Trojans to pull off the "upset" though, although I personally won't view it as such.
Without question, Stanford is a solid team. However, I believe that the Trojans are also better than many realize and that playing on their homecourt will prove significant. Stanford has only played two true road games all season. One was a 9-point loss and the other was a 2-point win. Note that Stanford is 0-3 ATS the last three times it was a road favorite of three or less. During that stretch, the Cardinal are also 1-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. While it didnt result in a cover vs. the closing line, I like that the Trojans were able to beat Dayton last time out and feel that victory will give them some positive momentum to carry into conference play. I look for them to step up and surprise. *10 best bet |
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01-03-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. These teams have faced each other twice this season. Both games were at Minnesota. Both finished above the total. The venue has shifted to Denver tonight though and we're getting the highest O/U line in the season series yet. Given the way that the Nuggets have recently played, I believe its generous.
The Nuggets beat the Clippers 92-78 last time out, a dominant defensive effort. Their previous game resulted in a 81-72 loss. They managed only 85 points in the game before that. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the total. Denver home games are averaging 200.5 points. The UNDER is 7-4 here this season and 49-37-2 the last 2+ seasons. Minnesota managed only 84 points in last night's loss at Utah. The T-Wolves have now seen their road games averaging 191 points. Both previous meetings had O/U lines in the 190s. We're getting a considerably higher number to work with here and I feel that it'll prove to be big enough to stay below. *10 best bet |
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01-03-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks UNDER 207 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio and NY to finish UNDER the total. These team faced each other about six weeks ago at San Antonio. The final combined score of that game finished above the total. However, a closer look reveals that the O/U line was only 196. We're getting a considerably higher number to work with tonight. I believe it will prove to be too high.
True, the Knicks have seen three straight games top the total. However, all two of those three games would have fallen below this high number. The Spurs are off a high-scoring game last night. They've seen the UNDER go 6-2 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game though. They've also still held three of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer points, two of those to 80 or less. For the season, despite all the offensive firepower, games on this floor are averaging less than 200 points. I feel that this one has an excellent shot at falling below that mark once again. *9 |
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01-02-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 | Top | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Its hard to make a case against the Spurs. They're a talented and well-coached team, one which is playing well. That said, the Bucks are also playing well. They've covered three straight games, winning both home games outright. One of those was a 19-point blowout of the defending world champion Heat. Going back further finds them at 6-2 their last eight on this floor. The Bucks upset the Spurs here last January. They're playing with 2-day's rest in between games and they have tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Spurs played New Year's Eve, which was their third game in four nights. They also play a TNT game at MSG tomorrow, a game to potentially get caught looking ahead to. While the Spurs were dominant defensively (allowed 76 pts!) on New Year's Eve, note that they're 1-3 ATS the last four times that they allowed 85 or fewer points. I'm taking the points with the revenge-minded home underdog. *9 best bet
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01-02-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Houston Rockets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston and New Orleans to finish UNDER the total. This O/U line climbed a bit from its opener. With all due respect to the Houston offense, I believe it will prove to be too high.
The Hornets saw last night's game finish with a mere 181 combined points. That's nine straight games that they've played which have finished with less than 202 combined points. This is by far the highest O/U line that they've seen in weeks. In fact, its the highest O/U line they've seen all season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the last couple of years when they've played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. During that stretch the UNDER is also 10-5 when the Rockets played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. Yes, this season's earlier meeting between these teams did finish above the number. However, it still only finished with 196 combined points. That O/U line was just 184! Going back a bit further finds the UNDER at 4-2 the last six meetings in this series, none of those games producing more than 204 points. (Last season's game here finished with only 161.) The UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Hornets played the second of b2b games. Those had scores of 180, 170, 156 and 193. All things considered, I believe this number is very generous. *10 blue chip |
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01-02-13 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -20 | Top | 44-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. At first glance, this line may seem a little steep. However, I feel that it could easily be higher and that we're actually getting a bit of a "bargain."
After three straight non-covers, the Buckeyes bounced back with a 43-point win over lowly Chicago State, covering the 36.5 number with relative ease. The Huskers represent a step up in class but they're still nowhere near Ohio State. Knowing they have a tough road game at Illinois on deck, the start of a stretch of games all more difficult than this one, I expect the Buckeyes to really want to make the most of this "blowout opportunity." This Nebraska team has proven susceptible to the blowout too. The Huskers lost by 14 vs. Kent State, by 22 vs Creighton, by 22 at Oregon and by 16 at Utep. This will be by far their toughest test yet. Ohio State hammered the Huskers 71-40 here last season, almost exactly one year (1/3/2012) to the day. A few weeks later, the Buckeyes followed it up with a 79-45 win at Nebraska. Including last year's win here, they're 7-2 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the 18.5 to 24 range, going 21-10 ATS (31-0 SU) their last 31 in that role. I'm expecting another blowout. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-01-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. Its hard for teams to keep on winning forever. That's why it doesn't happen. While the Clippers closed out 2012 on an extremely impressive and extended winning streak, its an entirely new year now. I expect their run to come to an end.
The Clippers dominated the Nuggets on Christmas Day. That loss fresh in their memories, the Nuggets will be looking for some payback here. A closer look shows that the 12/25 game was played at LA. That's noteworthy as the Nuggets are a poor 8-14 on the road but an outstanding 9-1 here at Denver - a much better winning percentage than LA has on the road. Note that the Nuggets have had an extra day off. While the Clippers played on 12/30, the Nuggets last played 12/29 at Memphis. (I successfully played against them there as they were coming off a big road win at Dallas the night before.) Note that the Nuggets also have tomorrow off while LA faces Golden State. The Nuggets are 7-3 the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, going 45-35 their last 80 in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats here, continuing their excellent play on this floor. *10 best bet |
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01-01-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 206 | Top | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver and LA to finish UNDER the total. The Nuggets saw their last game produce a mere 153 combined points. They've seen four of their last six fall below the number. Even off back to back games which topped the total, the UNDER is 8-4 the last 12 times that the Clippers took the floor.
Denver games are averaging 201.9 points on the season. Clipper games are averaging 194.7. That number dips to 193.5 on the road. Yet, we're getting a higher number to work with than we were when these same teams met on Christmas. With the UNDER at 16-9-1 the past few seasons, when the Nuggets played a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I feel that will prove to be excellent value. *10 blue chip |
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01-01-13 | Connecticut v. Marquette -5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARQUETTE. With all the football going on and it being New Year's, I'm running behind today. So, am keeping this writeup a little brief. The Golden Eagles are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. On the other hand, the Huskies are 0-7 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the same range. The Huskies have won just eight of 20 overall on the road while Marquette is 36-5 its last 41 at home. This season, the Golden Eagles are outscoring teams by a 73.9 to 58.4 margin at home, in going 7-0. They beat the Huskies by 15 (79-64) in the lone 2012 meeting and that was at UConn. I expect another solid win and cover here. *9 M.E.
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12-31-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 206.5 | Top | 96-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. Many don't like to bet on the Thunder and other good offensive teams to finish below the number. I believe that plenty of value can be found with such teams though. In tonight's case, I believe we're finding a number which is too high.
The Suns have seen their games average 198.4 points this season. The Thunder have seen their games average 202.4. The Thunder have seen the UNDER go 11-8 the last few seasons when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The previously high-scoring Suns have seen the UNDER go an even more lucrative 10-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. With the UNDER also at 8-4-1 when the Thunder were off a double-digit win, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. *9 |
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12-30-12 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 197 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah and LA to finish UNDER the total. I won with the Jazz when these teams faced each other at Utah a couple of nights. For tonight's rematch, I feel that the value lies in the total. Note that the O/U line is a handful of points higher than it was just two nights ago.
While the Jazz were able to score at home, the Clippers have been very stingy at home. They're allowing only 90.9 ppg here on the season, limiting opposing teams to just 42% shooting. Even including Thursday's result, the UNDER is still 6-3 in Utah's last nine games and 8-3 in LA's last 11. I expect a slight slower tempo and a much lower final combined score and feel that the number is generously high. *9 best bet |
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12-30-12 | Dayton v. USC -3 | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. Dayton comes in with the better record. However, with the game being played in Southern California, I believe that the Trojans are favored for good reason.
While theve struggled out of the gate, I believe this USC team is better than the record indicates. Keep in mind that its been a very difficult schedule. This is a chance to close out their non-conference slate with a win over a quality opponent and I look for them to go all out to make that happen. Dayton has only played one true road game all season. To their credit, the Flyers did win that one. Still, they're a long way from home here and getting home for New Year's Eve may already be on their minds. Expect homecourt to be the difference. *9 Personal Favorite |
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12-29-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This one sets up very nicely for the home team. The Grizzlies, who are playing with "double-revenge" had the past two nights off. They should have fresh legs. Off back to back losses and looking for some payback from the earlier losses to Denver, they should also be very hungry.
On the other hand, the Nuggets played last night at Dallas. Its true that they've been good in that situation this year. However, not all b2b spots are the same. Not only will the Nuggets be playing the second of back to back games, they'll also now be playing their fourth game in five days. Throw in the fact that the first of those four games was on Christmas - a potentially extra busy, emotional and/or stressful time - and this has been a very grueling stretch. They don't play until New Year's Day and could already have their minds on returning to loved ones in time to ring out the year. The fact that they won big last night could add to the Nuggets' complacency. Even with last night's win the Nuggets are still only 8-13 on the road. Even with a loss here last time out, the Grizzlies are still 12-3 at home. The Grizzlies, 5-0 SU the last five times that they played with two day's rest in between games, are 50-34-2 ATS the last 86 times that they were in the revenge role. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10 Personal Favorite |
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12-29-12 | Xavier v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 47-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. Everyone knows Xavier is usually a good team. Sometimes a very good team. To a certain degree, that reputation sticks with a team, even when its going through a tough time. In this case, I believe that Xavier remains a bit over-valued by the betting public and that that Musketeers will be in over their heads.
The Musketeers, who suffered heavy losses from last season, are off back to back losses. They were blown out by 15 points by rival Cincinnati and followed it up by losing outright against lowly Wofford. That makes it 0-4 ATS their last four. Think the ATS losing streak can't continue? Consider that the Musketeers are 4-11 ATS the last 15 times that they'd failed to cover their previous three or more consecutive games. The well-rested Volunteers are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games, 17-8 ATS their last 25 in that situation. They're also 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. The Vols are outscoring teams by 15 ppg on this floor. I backed them when they beat a good Wichita State team by nine here a couple of weeks ago (69-60 win on 12/13) and they've since followed it up by beating up on a couple of weaker opponents. I feel that they'll have no trouble taking care of business against (once) might Xavier. *9 Personal Favorite |
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12-28-12 | Missouri v. UCLA -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. Missouri has the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Bruins are favored for good reason.
The Tigers, who have struggled as small road underdogs in recent years, haven't played a true road game all season. Keep in mind that this Missouri team suffered major losses, including five seniors, from the one that won 30 games last year. While senior Bowers is contributing nicely, one of the remaining seniors (Dixon) is gone. While the Bruins have battled through some adversity, they come in on a 4-game winning streak and with a chip on their shoulder. They're a talented team and I look for them to accomplish what the UCLA football team could not - a win and cover. *9 Personal Favorite |
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12-28-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +3 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. I'm not normally not in the habit of going against teams on 15-game winning streaks. However, I feel that the Clippers' run will come to an end here.
While LA was playing a big TNT game vs. Boston last night, the Jazz had the night off. LA is 2-3 ATS this season in the second of b2b games. Let's not forget that the Jazz have been very tough here at Utah for ages. They're record here this season is just as good as LA's road record. The Jazz are playing with "revenge," having lost a 1-point game here against the Clippers a few weeks ago. They're still 29-4 SU (22-10-1 ATS) the last 33 times they were a host in the series. Don't be surprised when the streak comes to an end. *9 best bet |
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12-28-12 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards OVER 182 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and Orlando to finish OVER the total. Obviously, these aren't the best offenses in the league. However, with such a low O/U number, they don't need to be.
Orlando road games have been low-scoring but are still averaging greater than 184 points. Washington home games have been low-scoring but are still averaging greater than 188.5 points. The OVER is 1-0 here when the Wizards have played a home game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. The Magic have seen the OVER go 1-0 off an upset loss and 2-1-1 off three or more straight losses. The OVER is 9-5-1 the last 15 times that they were in that situation. Neither defense is particularly stingy. Neither team is making the playoffs. Both should be motivated to try and improve their offensive production. Both had last night off - which was not the case for the earlier meeting. Add it all up and I feel the number, which has come down from its opener, will prove too low. *9 annihilator |
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12-25-12 | San Diego St +5.5 v. Arizona | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. (I'm keeping today's college writeups slightly shorter than normal, as Christmas has me running a bit behind.) The Wildcats are a very good team and they're off to a great start. I'm not convinced that they're better than the Aztecs though, who are also a very strong team. That being said, I feel that getting this many points is providing excellent value.
While the Wildcats are 11-0, the Aztecs are 11-1. In fact, they're 11-0 their last 11, since dropping their opener vs. Syracuse. Speaking of 11-0, note that San Diego State has won 11 straight against teams currently in the Pac-12. Clearly the Aztecs "get up" for games against teams in their part of the country, wanting to show that they're the "best in the west." The Aztecs, who upset Arizona last year, are 33-16 ATS (39-11) the last 50 times that they faced a team with a winning record. During that stretch, they've gone 7-3 ATS against teams which score 77 or more per game. While Arizona is strong at both ends of the floor, the Aztecs are also 16-6 ATS (19-3 SU!) their last 22 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points. Speaking of good defensive teams, the Aztecs have been dominant defensively recently, holding four straight opponents to less than 60. Note that they're 40-3 SU, after allowing 60 or less, 7-0 their last seven. The Wildcats are only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as neutral court favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range, including an 0-3 ATS mark their last three in that situation. Don't be surprised if they suffer their first loss here. *10 Best Bet |
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12-25-12 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | Top | 120-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams met last month at Houston. A close game saw the Rockets pull out a 93-89 victory. With today's rematch being played at Chicago, I expect the revenge-minded Bulls to return the favor.
While they didn't play well in their last game, the Bulls have gotten it together recently. A look at their last game, a loss at Atlanta, shows that the Bulls were playing the second of back to back road games and that they were coming off an upset of the Knicks the previous day. So, it was a difficult spot, scheduling-wise, for them. The Bulls are well-rested now though, in addition to being back home. They're 27-12 SU the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. True, the Rockets have won three straight, all three in impressive fashion. However, two of those came at home; they're still 3-7 on the road. Also, the only time that they previously won three straight this season, they followed it up by losing 120-98. (They're 8-14 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having won their previous three.) Even with the loss at Atlanta, the Bulls have still won seven of their last 10. They haven't lost two in a row since the loss at Houston. In fact, after their lost five losses, they've responded by going a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS. They won those games by scores of 93-86, 101-78, 95-85, 96-89 and 100-89. I expect them to respond with another win and cover here. *10 Roast |
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12-25-12 | Mississippi v. Hawaii +8.5 | Top | 81-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. (I'm keeping today's college writeups slightly shorter than normal, as Christmas has me running a bit behind.) The Rebels are a solid and experienced squad. However, they're a long way from home here and laying a lot of points. I feel it will prove to be too many, as I'm expecting a close game. In four road or neutral court games, the Rebels scoring 76.2 points and allowing 75. They were just 1-3 ATS in those games. Those four road/neutral court games weren't against elite teams either, as they faced Middle Tennessee STate, Loyola Marymount, Indiana State and San Francisco. The Rebels won one of those games by seven points and all three of the others were decided by three or less. The Warriors are 5-3 at home, outscoring opponents by a 72 to 64.9 margin. The Warriors may not be that experienced but they are talented and have a legit star in Vander Joaquim, one of five players averaging better than nine points per game. Joaquim averages 14.3 ppg and 7.3 rbg and that's not even the best on the team in either category. That honor belongs to Standhardinger, who is averaging an impressive 16.1 and 8.1 The Warriors are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. In a game that comes down to the wire, don't be surprised if Hawaii pulls off the upset. *9 Annihilator
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12-25-12 | New York Knicks v. Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Knicks come in with the much better record and they've already defeated the Lakers once this season. However, I believe that the Lakers are favored for good reason.
True, the Knicks won by nine at MSG. However, in addition to playing on the road, the Lakers were without Pau Gasol AND Steve Nash in that game. They also weren't playing well at the time. Things are much different. Now playing at home, the Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season. They'll have both Gasol and Nash this time. Off a comeback victory against a Golden State, a team which had been playing well, the Lakers have now won four straight. Nash's return went about as well as could be hoped. Nash helped key the comeback while scoring a dozen points and adding nine assists. Coach D'Antoni said this of Nash: "The guy is a winner. I think that we're a completely different team with him out there. The floor opens up and it changes everything." Of course, D'Antoni should be extremely motivated to win here. The last thing he wants to have happen is to let his former team sweep the season series against his new team, particularly not in front on the national audience. The Knicks, 1-6 in Christmas Day road games, have been dominated by the Lakers here at LA. In fact, the Lakers have won five straight against the Knicks here, winning those games by an average of greater than a dozen points. The Lakers are 6-1 SU the seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, going 72-20 SU their last 92 in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite |