Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. North Dakota -2.5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on North Dakota. These teams have equally poor W/L records. The Mavericks are 4-19, the Fighting Hawks are 4-20. Those similar numbers have kept the pointspread reasonably low. While I'm aware that the Mavs have enjoyed success as small road underdogs over the years, I feel that this line could easily be higher. The reality is that the Fighting Hawks are stronger on both sides of the ball this season, at least when playing on their home floor. They average 72.9 ppg at home and allow 72.5. The Mavs, on the other hand, score 59.2 ppg on the road and allow 85.3. They're 0-11 away from home. The Mavs already hammered the Hawks, at Omaha. They also won last season's first meeting. However, North Dakota bounced back and won the second game by double-digits. Today, the revenge-minded Fighting Hawks will leave it all on the floor, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. |
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02-04-22 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Portland OVER the total. While the Thunder may not be that high-scoring of a team, this is still a low O/U line for a game at Portland. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Games here are averaging 222.8 points on the season. Visiting teams connect on a high 46.7% of their field goals. Overall, the Blazers allow opponents to hit 47.4% of their field goals. Only Houston (47.5%) is worse in that defensive category. The Blazers are also dead last in the NBA (tied with Detroit) at defending the 3-point shot. Opponents hit 36.8% of their shots from downtown. That number climbs to 37.1% here at Portland, too. Note that Portland is allowing a whopping 117 points (49.9% field goals!) in its division games. This season's earlier meeting (at OKC) stayed below the total (last year's at OKC also did) but tonight will be this season's first game here, at Porland. Last season, OKC's two visits here averaged 232.5 points. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair. |
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02-04-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's OVER 136.5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Quinnipiac/Saint Peter's OVER the total. These teams played a relatively low-scoring game (69-59) against each other, at Quinnipiac, earlier in the season. That was more than two months ago now though and the Bobcats play higher-scoring games on the road than they do at home. I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring affair this evening. Note that the O/U line was in the 130s the last time that the teams played here, yet they combined for 156 points. While the Peacocks have admittedly been stingy, they're facing a Bobcat team which has seen its road games average greater than 150 points. The Bobcats allow 77.4 ppg on the road, host teams hitting 47% of their field goals. Note that the OVER is 7-3 when Qunnipiac is an underdog. Saint Peter's is off its third conference loss. After each of the first two losses, the Peacocks next game finished above the number. Expect this one to do the same. |
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02-03-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 221 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Sacramento OVER the total. The Kings are off a low-scoring game last night and have seen their recent games fall below the number. Those results have worked in our favor, as they are among the factors helping to provide us with a relatively low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Warriors are averaging 122 ppg their past five, while allowing more than 108. Facing a Sacramento team which gives up the second most points in the NBA, they're going to put up a big number. A closer look shows that the Kings allow more points per game than any team in the entire NBA, when playing on the road. Their road defensive field goal percentage is also the worst in the Western Conference. The last time that the Kings played the second of b2b games, they combined with the Hawks for 225. With the Warriors having won this season's first two meetings, note that the OVER is 18-11 the past couple of seasons when the Kings played with revenge. Expect another high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 12-8 the past 20 times that the Kings played a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. |
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02-03-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic OVER 141 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA Tech/FAU to finish OVER the total. The Owls like to play at a fast pace. Playing at home will help them dictate that tempo. They've scored 71, 78, 96, 71, 78, 84, 76 and 83 in eight home games, since 12/1. So, more than 70 in every recent game here. On the season, they're averaging 79 at home, hitting 48.8% of their field goals. The Bulldogs are (small) favorites for a reason though. They're a tough team, one which is fully capable of putting up big points on the road. They scored 76 and 79 in their last two road games. Though they managed only 62 points in losing their last game, the Bulldogs had scored at least 76 in each of their previous five games. On the season, they're averaging 78. Also, the last three times that the Bulldogs were off a loss, they responded by scoring 87, 99 and 80 points in their next game. Last season's lone meeting finished above the total. The OVER is also 5-1-1 the past seven times that FAU faced a team which had a winning percentage greater than .600. The OVER is also 13-7 the past 20 times that the Owls were coming off a victory. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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02-02-22 | Dayton v. VCU OVER 120 | Top | 82-52 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dayton/VCU OVER the total. These are two stingy teams. They already played a low-scoring game against each other; each has been involved in a number of recent 'unders.' Those results have rewarded us with a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Last year, as they did this year, these teams played a low-scoring game against each other in January. Last January's game had a combined score of 109. This year's finished at 105. However, when these teams had their "rematch" in February, they combined for 143 points, all of them in regulation. Then, for good measure, they combined for 141, again all in regulation, in the A-10 tournament. Note that all last year's O/U lines were in the 130s. Looking at the past 10 meetings, seven of which finished 'over' the total, shows that this is the lowest O/U line. Even this season's earlier meeting was 124, which was far lower than any of the previous ones. The OVER is 6-0-1 the past seven times that Dayton failed to score more than 60 points in its previous game. Going back further finds the OVER at a profitable 65-38, excluding pushes, when the Flyers were in that situation. Like last year, look for this year's rematch to prove higher-scoring than the first meeting, the teams combining for enough to finish above the very low number. |
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02-02-22 | Cavs v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening. This is the final leg of a 4-game homestand. The first three games were against tough Western Conf. opponents and the Rockets stumbled. They don't want to go winless in the four games. They also have a score to settle as the Cavs hammered them, at Cleveland. That was the front end of a b2b for the Rockets; they had a revenge game against the Knicks on deck the next day. That's not the case here. They had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. Their full attention and focus is on the task at hand. Only two of the Cavs' past seven games have come on the road. They lost both those games; they're just 1-5 ATS their past six overall. Rubio and Sexton are out for the season but the Cavs are also expected to be without Markkanen and Garland. While the Cavs eked out a 93-90 home win last time out, they're just 15-39-2 ATS (14-42 SU) the past 56 times that they scored 100 or less in their previous game. I'll happily grab the points but I look for the revenge-minded Rockets to score the upset. |
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02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 232 | Top | 115-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/Minnesota UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U number. With all due respect to the offenses, given the venue, I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Nuggets score fewer points on the road than they do at home. They allow roughly the same amount, regardless of venue. On the season, their road games are averaging 114.7 points, which is less than their games at Denver. The opposite is true of the T-Wolves, as they've played higher scoring games on the road than they have at home. In fact, Minnesota home games are considerably lower-scoring. The T-Wolves score 107.9 ppg at home and they allow 104.8. Compare that to the Wolves road numbers: 115 ppg scored, 116 ppg allowed. Indeed, that's a 212.7 average at home compared to a 231 point average on the road. I'd say that's pretty significant. The Wolves actually score more ppg on the road than any team in the entire NBA. Yet, the 107.9 ppg they score here at home ranks near the bottom. Likewise, they're one of the stingier teams in the league here at home but one of the worst defensively, when playing on the road. You get my point. Given the above, it's not surprising to learn that this season's game at Denver produced 231 points but the game here at Minnesota finished with only 184. Going back further finds that six of Denver's past seven visits here have seen the final score stay below the number. Expect more of the same this evening. |
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02-01-22 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. I used the Bonnies as my A-10 GOY on 1/15, in their game against VCU. Listed as small favorites, they hammered the Rams by a 73-53 score. I started my analysis of that game by saying the following: "Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by less than four points ..." I provided that excerpt as I feel much the same way. Once again, the Bonnies' struggles at the betting window have kept this line reasonably low, providing excellent value. Once again, I expect a visit from a quality team to be "just what the doctor ordered" to get the Bonnies playing up to their potential. The Bonnies are now 7-1 at home. Despite having hosted some tough teams, they're outscoring their guests by an average score of 77 to 67. The Wildcats embarrassed the Bonnies here in 2020. However, the Bonnies bounced back to win both last year's meetings, including an 11-point win on this floor. Expect them to improve to 40-10 SU the last 50 times that they were favored, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State UNDER 149 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Northern Colorado/Portland State UNDER the total. Recent high-scoring results have rewarded us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that both O/U lines, when these teams faced in 2021, were in the 130s. Those games finished with combined scores of 130 and 138. The Bears are tough but they've been dealing with some scheduling difficulties. This game is, in fact, a make-up for one that was ppd earlier. The Bears also saw Saturday's game vs. Idaho State ppd. Prior to that, they were off a loss to Weber State. The last two times that they were off losses, the Bears held their next opponent to 54 and 70 points. While the Bears are a high-scoring team, they don't score quite as many on the road and they'll face a Portland State team which is capable of being stingy at home. The Vikings last game here was high-scoring, an 85-82 loss vs. Southern Utah. However, that game went to OT. So, the score wasn't quite as obscene as it appears. (It wasn't high-scoring at all in the first half but the Vikings mounted a big comeback to force OT, which led to a high-scoring second.) Also, even factoring in that game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 7-1 the past eight times that the Vikings were listed as home underdogs. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-31-22 | Heat v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 92-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Celtics handled the Heat early in the season, a 95-78 blowout at Miami. While it may be tempting to back the revenge-minded Heat, I feel that Miami will have to wait for its chance to get some payback. It took awhile but I really like what I'm seeing from the Celtics right now. They won their last game, at New Orleans, by 10. They also won their last game on this floor by 53 points. They're 3-1 SU/ATS their past four, the lone loss coming at Atlanta, against the red hot Hawks. Note that the Celtics have tomorrow off; they're going to leave it all on the floor this evening. The Heat are generally tough (18-6) at home but they're only mediocre (14-12 SU) on the road. It should be noted that the Heat were just upset by Toronto in their last game and they face those same Raptors again tomorrow. Though they had yesterday off, the Heat will still be playing their fourth game in the past six days. The Celtics are 12-8 ATS their last 20, when off a game where they held their opponent to 105 or fewer points. While I obviously respect the Heat, homecourt in their favor, I say the Celtics build off their strong defensive performance with another win and cover this evening. |
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01-30-22 | Spurs v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/Phoenix UNDER the total. These teams have met three times so far this season. The two games at San Antonio were both relatively high-scoring. However, the game here at Phoenix was not. The two at SA had scores of 226 and 228. The game here at Phoenix finished with just 212. That's not surprising if we look at how the Spurs have been playing this season. Their home games have been high-scoring, the majority finishing above the total. The opposite is true when they play on the road. Their road games average 217 points, the UNDER going 15-8-1. It should be mentioned that the O/U line was only 215.5 when the Spurs played here in December. Due to some recent high-scoring results from both teams, we're working with a much higher number here. Those recent high-scoring games largely came against high-scoring and/or defensively-challenged opponents though. Teams like Minnesota and Houston. Keep in mind that prior to its high-scoring game against the Wolves, the Suns had held eight straight opponents below 110 points. Also, keep in mind that prior to their high-scoring game at Houston, the Spurs had scored 100 or less in three of their previous four road games. The UNDER is 5-0 the past five times that the Spurs were off a victory and 7-0 the past seven times that they were off a "cover." Meanwhile, the Suns have seen the UNDER go 8-1 the past nine times that their previous opponent scored in triple digits. Expect the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number. |
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01-29-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 214.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Bos/NO OVER the total. Both teams saw Friday's games finish below the total. However, I'm expecting plenty of points this evening. This will be the third time in 2022 that the Pelicans played two games in two nights. In both the previous cases, the second game of the b2b set finished above the total. Scores were 233 and 224. The same is true of the Celtics. They've played two previous b2b sets in 2022. In both cases, the second game of the b2b finished above the total. In fact, if we go back further we find the OVER at a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Boston played the second of b2b games. The Celtics play higher scoring games on the road than they do at home. The opposite is true of the Pelicans. Their home games have been higher-scoring than their road games. These teams combined for 235 points when the Celtics visited last season. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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01-29-22 | Baylor v. Alabama +2 | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have underachieved of late and are off a disappointing loss. However, this is an extremely talented team and I believe that a visit from Baylor will prove to be just what they need to get going. Note that the subpar results are reflected in the line; we're getting extra line value as a result of them. Alabama coach Nate Oats had this to say: "We continue to have these issues with playing up and down to the level of our competition ..." In this case, with such a high profile visitor, I expect them to "play up" to their competition. Keep in mind that this game will be played at Tuscaloosa; the Tide are 9-1 here on the season. The lone loss was by four points vs. Auburn. While the Tide were favored for the Auburn game, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. To their credit, the Bears have played really well. They've absolutely got another excellent team. That said, they lost a lot from last season, as they only returned one starter. This afternoon, those personnel losses catch up to them as the Tide rise to the occasion and avenge a close loss Waco, three years ago. |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Eastern Kentucky / Stetson OVER the total. Both teams have been seeing their recent games stay below the total. Those results have rewarded us with a relatively low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Colonels usually see much higher O/U lines than this. In fact, this is the lowest O/U line they've seen this season. Their last 11 games, which had an O/U line, ranged from 149.5 to 168.5. Their last game had an O/U line of 154.5 and finished with 150. On the season, the Colonels are averaging 80.3 ppg. Stetson isn't well known but this year's team has more talented shooters than recent results would lead one to believe. The Hatters managed a mere 47 points last game. However, they scored 91 in their previous home game. (Eighty-two in regulation.) So, when matched up against a high-scoring team like the one they'll face here, they're absolutely capable of playing a high-scoring, up tempo game. The OVER is 24-11 the past 35 times that Eastern Kentucky played on the road. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-28-22 | Pistons v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. It doesn't happen often but the Magic find themselves listed as (small) favorites. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. These teams have already met twice. The Pistons won both games. Both those games were at Detroit though. Playing with "double-revenge" will provide the Magic with some added motivation. While the Magic defense has admittedly been poor at home, the Pistons defense is even worse on the road. They allow 115 ppg, when playing away from Detroit. Host teams make 48.8% of their field goals against the Pistons. (That's the worst road defense, in terms of opponents field goal percentage) in the entire NBA. While they stumbled against the Clippers last time out, the Magic hammered the Bulls 114-95 in their previous game. That's arguably more impressive than anything that the Pistons have recently accomplished. They're 1-5 their last six, 0-3 their last three. The lone win came by two against Sacramento. The Magic are actually a solid 27-18-1 ATS (33-13 SU) as favorites the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on that 60% record on Friday evening. |
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01-28-22 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 211 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Det/Orlando OVER the total. For two bad defenses, this is a very low number. I expect it to prove to be too low. The Magic allow 111 ppg at home. Visting teams hit 47.6% of their field goals. That's the second worst home defensive field goal percentage in the NBA. Somehow,, the Pistons defense is even worse on the road. They allow 115 ppg, when playing away from Detroit. Host teams make 48.8% of their field goals against the Pistons. That's the worst road defense, in terms of opponents field goal percentage, in the entire NBA. The Magic have seen the OVER go 24-6-2 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-28-22 | Pennsylvania v. Harvard OVER 141.5 | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Penn/Harvard OVER the total. This O/U line came down a bit from its opener. I feel that it'll prove to be too low.The Quakers have seen the OVER go 8-4 as underdogs, 6-3 in true road games. When playing away from home, they're allowing a whopping 78.6 ppg. Opposing teams are hitting 47.9% of their field goals. Harvard, which averages a healthy 77.9 ppg, figures to be licking its chops. The Crimson haven't been playing very good defense of late themselves though. Since hitting conference play, they're allowing 75.9 ppg and an ugly 49.3% defensive field goal percentage. Harvard, which is returning home after having played three straight on the road, has seen the OVER go 5-0 the past five times that it played its previous three games on the road. The Crimson, who gave up 76 points in losing at Cornell, have also seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they were off an Ivy League loss. Going back further finds the OVER at a lucrative 50-28, excluding pushes and in games which had a total, when Harvard was coming off a loss. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-27-22 | Wolves v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/GS UNDER the total. I won with the Warriors 'over' the total last game. However, that was a much lower O/U number and an entirely different opponent and setup. Now, I feel that tonight's considerably bigger number will prove to be too high. While Curry and the offense still steal the headlines, the Warriors have the best defense in the NBA. They allow the fewest points in the league and they also hold opposing teams to the lowest field goal percentage. After giving up 92 in b2b games, they've now held four of their past five opponents to 103 or less. Note that the UNDER is 8-2 when they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or higher. Speaking of the O/U line, these teams faced each other less than two weeks ago and the O/U line was 215. I actually eked out a win with the 'over' in that one, as the teams combined for 218. Note that Minnesota held GSW to just 99. Again, tonight's number is much higher. I say the revenge-minded Warriors flex their defensive muscles and that the final combined score stays beneath the generous number. |
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01-27-22 | East Carolina v. Memphis -13 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Pirates are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams are at the opposite end of the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are arguably the best team. Certainly, they're among the best. The Pirates are, perhaps, the worst. Indeed, they scored a mere 36 points in their last game, giving up 79. Yes, the Tigers have been dealing with some missing players and that's led to them going through a tough stretch. Still, I like the way that they eked out a road win at Tulsa last game. Now, back home with confidence restored and stepping down in class to face an inferior opponent, I expect them to deliver a blowout. Added motivation stems from the fact they lost by a single point, less than two weeks ago, at East Carolina. Note that the Tigers are 8-4 ATS their last 12, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Off their dismal effort at Houston, note that the Pirates are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. I say this one gets ugly. |
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01-26-22 | Mavs v. Blazers OVER 216 | Top | 132-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Portland OVER the total. I won with Dallas 'over' last night, while also successfully going against the Mavs. They gave up 130 points. That loss snapped a lengthy 'under' streak for the Mavs. Those recent results have kept tonight's O/U line reasonably low. For a game at Portland, I believe it'll prove to be too low. While last night's game against the T-Wolves finished with "only" 216, games here are averaging 222 points this season. These teams played here on 12/27. Dallas routed the Blazers by a 132-117 score. The teams already had 125 by halftime. Note that the OVER is 6-4 the last 10 times that the Blazers attempted to avenge an earlier home loss; they've got a 27-14 OVER mark in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Mavs have seen the OVER go 9-5 after having allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Nine straight meetings have produced more than 220 points, eight of those finishing with more than 230. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall -4 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well. They beat the Pirates by a single point in this season's earlier meeting, at Marquette. The Pirates found out that winning on the road, in the Big East, can be tough. This evening, I expect the Eagles to discover the same. While the Eagles outscore teams by a modest 71.7 to 70.4 average score on the road, the Pirates outscore visiting teams by a dominating 81.6 to 66 margin. The Pirates just lost (badly) to St. John's after having beaten the Red Strom two days earlier. (Sweeping teams in the Big East can be tough, too.) Their previous four home games were against the likes of Villanova, UConn, Rutgers and Texas. So, they've hosted some tough recent opponents. While its a very competitive Big East conference this year, the Pirates are one of the stronger teams in it. They'll remind everyone of that this evening, improving to 10-1 ATS their last 11, when off a double-digit loss at home. |
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01-25-22 | Arizona v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. These are two strong teams and this should be a good game. Though I don't expect to need them, getting points, at home, with the Bruins is providing us with excellent value. Note that UCLA is 3-0 ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less, 13-7 ATS its last 20 in that role. The Bruins were slight favorites when they hosted the Wildcats last season. They won by 14. The Wildcats are off a game Sunday and they're playing their third road game since 1/20. They're just 9-12 ATS their past 21, when playing with one day's rest in between games. UCLA played Saturday, so has had an extra day's worth of rest. While the Cats can score with the best of them, the Bruins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more points per game, through the first 15 games of the season. Note that while Arizona averages more ppg overall, the Bruins average more per game at home, than the Cats do on the road. The Bruins had some early season issues with injury and Covid delays etc. However, this team is one of the best in the country and its been slowly rounding into form. A visit from the Wildcats and fans at Pauley Pavilion for the first time in two months will be just what the doctor ordered. *10 UCLA |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -3 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors won't have all hands on deck but they're still going to have enough to take care of business at home tonight. While the Mavs are a mediocre 12-11 away from Dallas, the Warriors are a dominant 21-4 at home. Having been embarrassed at Dallas earlier this month, the night that Dirk's number got retired, and also the last time that the Mavs visited here, the Warriors will be all business tonight. The Warriors are 9-5 ATS (12-2 SU) their last 14, when playing with revenge. The Mavs, meanwhile, are just 7-11 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer points in their previous game. Curry played poorly in the earlier meeting but he'll be better tonight. Payback time. |
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01-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 91-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Red Raiders are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Kansas plays with revenge from earlier loss at Lubbock. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. With Kentucky on deck, they're going to want a big win here. I watched the Red Raiders win over WVU closely and they were fortunate to get the cover. Yet, that result has worked in four favor by helping keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been.That was at home. Now, they're at their least favorite venue; the Jayhawaks 14-3 ATS (16-1 SU) their last 17 as a host in the series. The Raiders won't be helped that they're also suddenly dealing with some Covid issues. Expect the revenge-mined Jayhawks to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, on Monday evening |
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01-24-22 | Eastern Washington v. Idaho State +5.5 | Top | 89-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. Prior to the season, the Bengals were projected to finish ahead of the Eagles. Now, though we're still in January, the Eagles are laying a handful of points against them, despite the game being played at Idaho State. I believe that's asking too much. These teams split a pair of meetings last year; both were at Eastern Washington. The Eagles brought back one starter from that team, the Bengals brought back all five. So, they know that they can compete with and defeat this team. The Bengals' last three games were against Weber State (twice) and Southern Utah. Those are the strongest teams in the conference. So, they weren't expected to win. The Eagles aren't in that class though. I say the Bengals bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their last 10, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. |
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01-23-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets are off a loss. After this game, they've got a long road trip. It starts at Detroit, with a rematch against the Pistons. That makes taking care of business on their home floor absolutely mandatory. Catching the Pistons at the end of a road trip, I expect the motivated Nuggets to deliver a blowout. The Nuggets were laying -11.5 when they hosted the Pistons last year. They jumped out to a 20-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 15-point win. Tonight, off the Memphis loss, I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. The Pistons are 4-20 away from Detroit and get outscored by a 115-101 avg score. Host teams hit 48.7% of their field goals against Detroit; terrible defense. This remains one of the tougher venues in the league. Expect a one-sided affair. |
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01-22-22 | Thunder +12.5 v. Cavs | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. Off a sub-par showing last night, the Thunder will be hungry to bounce back with a better performance. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Cavs narrowly beat them, at OKC, only a week ago. Even with last night's loss, the Thunder have still quietly gone an outstanding 55-33-2 ATS their last 90 road games. They're 9-6 ATS off a double-digit loss and 9-4 ATS after having lost their previous three. The Cavs are also off a blowout loss. They're only 25-44-3 ATS (17-55 SU) their past 72, off a double-digit loss though. While the Cavs may be the fresher team, OKC is the healthier one. The Thunder won here last season and I expect them to bring their best effort again tonight. Grab the points. |
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01-22-22 | Howard v. Morgan State +3.5 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. In a game that could be close, I'm happy to get points. That said, I expect the Bears to win this one outright. Both teams have strong frontcourts, perhaps the two best in the MEAC. However, the Bears also possess arguably the best backcourt in the conference. While the team is improved this season, Howard isn't used to laying points on the road. Why? The Bison are 1-5 SU their last six on the road, 2-19 their last 21. Off a tough loss against Notre Dame, a game where they left it all on the floor and their third straight defeat, the Bison still could easily be thinking about what could have been. While the competition has admittedly been soft, a 3-point loss here last game notwithstanding, the Bears have been tough at home. They've handled Howard here over the years; I look for them to dig deep and get it done. |
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01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. On a rare slide, 0-2 their last two and 1-6 SU/ATS their last six, the Jazz are going to be angry. Make that "really angry," when considering that one of those losses came by double-digits, at Detroit. Utah was laying -11 for that game, too. So, that was a game they were absolutely expected to win, which will make getting some "proper payback" mandatory for them tonight. Yes, the Jazz will be without Mitchell. That's helped keep the line a little lower than it otherwise could have been though. He's a strong player but the Jazz have plenty of backcourt depth. The Pistons, on the other hand, are less equipped to deal with their missing players. The Pistons eked out a 133-131 win at Sacramento last game, helping to win our 'over' play. They're just 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight off an 'upset' win though, 10-23-2 ATS (5-30 SU) their last 35 in that situation. The Jazz have dominated the Pistons for years. They're 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the past five meetings here, three of those victories coming by more than 20 points. Look for the revenge-minded Jazz to deliver another one-sided blowout. |
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01-21-22 | Wagner v. Long Island +3.5 | Top | 92-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LIU. The Seahawks are tough. No question about it. They returned everyone from the team which finished first in the NEC (regular season) last year. They've got arguably the top backcourt in the conference. That said, the Sharks may have the top frontcourt and their pace and style gives the Seahawks trouble. The Sharks faced these same Seahawks twice last season. With all the Covid issues in NYC, both games were at Wagner. Yet, LIU won one outright (77-66) and lost the other by only two points. Now, the Sharks get to host the Seahawks. That's noteworthy as they're undefeated here on the season, 4-1 ATS in lined games. Off a 95-64 beating of Farleigh Dickinson, the Sharks are full of confidence. While Wagner averages 64.7 ppg on the road, LIU averages 87.8 ppg at home. The Sharks won by eight the last time that the teams met here. Grab the points and expect them to again give their guests everything that they can handle. |
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01-20-22 | UCLA v. Utah OVER 143 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/UCLA OVER the total. The Utes have seen their last four final scores stay beneath the posted total. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping tonight's O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Bruins scored 81 points last game. Remember, they rang in 2022 by scoring 96 in their first game of the year. They're going to put up a big number against a defensively-challenged Utah team. With a tougher game on deck, they'll look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Meanwhile, playing at home, where it shoots better than it does on the road, Utah will keep fighting. At first glance, Utah's defensive stats look reasonable enough. However, that's because they factor in a soft non-conference schedule. Since hitting Pac-12 play, the Utes are allowing an average of 76.9 ppg with their conf. rivals hitting 48.2% of their field goals. While results would have varied, based on when and where one played, the Utes eked out a cover for some in their last game. I mention that, as the OVER is 15-3 the last 18 times that they were off an ATS victory. Either way, the OVER is 3-1 when the Bruins faced a team with a losing record and 6-2 the last eight times that they faced a team with a losing record. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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01-20-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 215 | Top | 121-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/GSW OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game, at Indiana, against each other back in December. With Curry, Thompson, Wiggins and co on their home floor, for tonight's rematch, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. Catching the Pacers off a game at LA last night, the Warriors will look to push the pace tonight. The last time that the Pacers played the second of b2b games, they combined with the Nets for 250 points. The time before that, they combined with the Pistons for 235. While they're off a low-scoring game vs. the Pistons, the Warriors have seen the OVER go 4-2 the past six times that they allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game. The Warriors "Big 3" were going off last game. However, the Pistons couldn't fight back. So, they didn't need to keep scoring. The Pacers will provide a lot more fight though and that will lead to a lot more points, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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01-19-22 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 153.5 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Auburn UNDER the total. The Tigers have played some high-scoring games recently and that's led to a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that seven of Auburn's last eight games had O/U lines in the 130s of 140s. The one which had an O/U line in the 150s (at Alabama) snuck over the total by a bucket. That was against a strong Alabama team which could match the Tigers in scoring. They won't get that from the Bulldogs. Georgia scored 66 last time out. That's the fifth straight game where the Bulldogs failed to reach 80 points. That includes a game where the Bulldogs managed a mere 60 pts against Gardner Webb. They average 66.8 ppg on the road and they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Look for them to have trouble scoring (Auburn hasn't forgotten that Georgia won here last season) and for those 'under' stats to improve this evening. |
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01-19-22 | Bradley v. Drake -6.5 | Top | 83-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on DRAKE. The Bulldogs have been winning but not covering. Those results have worked in our favor, as they've kept the pointspread reasonable. As I'm expecting a double-digit win, I feel we're getting excellent value. Note that Drake is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three, as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. A few narrow ATS losses notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are the real deal. They returned every starter from a team that went 15-3 in the MVC last season, 26-5 overall. The Braves have lost three straight on the road. Last time out, they lost by nine, at Illinois State. This is a much tougher venue and Bulldogs are far stronger than the Redbirds. The Braves are now 10-17-2 ATS (7-22 SU) on the road, the past 2+ seasons. The Braves average less than 70 ppg on the road, the Bulldogs avg more than 80 at home. The Bulldogs beat them by 13 the last time the teams played on this floor. Don't be surprised by an even greater margin of victory tonight. |
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01-19-22 | Wolves v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The T-Wolves have been playing well for some time now while the Hawks have been struggling. This one sets up nicely for Atlanta though. The Hawks finally turned the corner last game, as they beat the Bucks. I backed them in that game and stated that a visit from the defending champs, a playoff rematch, was just what they needed to get going. Off that much-needed win, the Hawks had yesterday off. I expect Young and co. to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While the Hawks were resting yesterday, the Wolves played an emotional (2-point win) game at MSG. I like that they had to really fight hard and I also like that they won. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, after having won the previous night, the Wolves scored only 88 points. This will mark their third game in the past four days. Minnesota is just 66-101 ATS over the years, against teams from the Southeast, 1-4 ATS this season. The Hawks already won big at Minnesota and they swept the Wolves last season. Schedule in their favor, expect them to continue their recent success in the series this evening. |
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01-18-22 | Cal Poly v. CS Bakersfield -7 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on CSU BAKERSFIELD. The Mustangs were a dismal 1-15 in conference play last season, 4-20 overall. To their credit, they've already matched the four wins this season and have already won a Big West game. That said, it's still going to be another long season and tonight, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Roadrunners have started 0-2 in conference play. With four of their next five on the road, they know that they absolutely need to take advantage of a visit from the Mustangs. The Mustangs managed 82 points last game. However, that was at home and they haven't shot well on the road. Also, note that they're 1-7 SU the past eight time that they scored 80 or more, in their previous game. While Cal Poly averages 60.3 ppg (39.8% fg) shooting on the road, Bakersfield averages 74.6 ppg (45.9% fg) at home. These teams met twice last January. The Roadrunners won by 13 and 17 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 214 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Minnesota OVER the total. The Knicks are off a poor offensive game yesterday. The last time that they were off a loss, they responded by scoring 111 points. I expect them to again bounce back with a better offensive effort. Slowing down their guests will be another matter. The Wolves average 114.7 ppg (and allow 114.6) on the road. That's more than they average at home. In fact, that's actually the most ppg on the road (slightly more than the Nets) in the entire NBA. Over their past five games overall, the Wolves are averaging a whopping 125.6 ppg. While I won with the 'over,' in their last home game, the OVER is also now 15-6 in their road games. Look for those stats to improve on NBA TV, this evening. |
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01-17-22 | Jazz v. Lakers +5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Jazz certainly looked dominant at Denver last night. However, they were catching the Nuggets playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot this evening though. The Jazz played in the altitude of Denver last night while the Lakers rested. They've been mediocre, at best, when playing the second of b2b games. They're 3-4 SU/ATS in that situation this season, 14-16 ATS their past 30. Last time that the Jazz played the second of b2b games, they got pounded by the Pacers. The Lakers are going to be desperate. They've still won four of their past five games here. They're also 6-2 ATS their last eight against the Jazz. Grab the points. |
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01-17-22 | Delaware v. Northeastern +1 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. I really like the setup for the Huskies. I also really like that we don't need to worry about laying any points. The Huskies just finished a lengthy road trip, one which dated back to last year. They stumbled in their first game back home. They're absolutely going to be desperate for a victory. Keep in mind that the Huskies brought back most of the team which went 8-2 in conference action last year. They're very well-coached and they won't have forgotten that the Blue Hens upset them here last season, or that the Blue Hens hammered them at Delaware last year. I respect the Blue Hens. They also returned a lot from last year and they should be fairly solid within the CAA. That said, this is a tough spot for them. While the Huskies will now be playing their second straight home game, the Blue Hens will be playing the final game of a 5-game road trip. They'll be starting to get road weary and will be looking forward to finally returning home. Off a loss at Hofstra Saturday, note that the Blue Hens are just 8-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons,when playing with one day or less worth of rest between games. The Huskies are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday evening. |
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01-16-22 | Niagara v. Iona -10.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on IONA. This is a mismatch. The Gaels are much stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They'll finish at, or near, the top of the MAAC. The Purple Eagles, on the other hand, are likely destined to finish in the middle of the pack, or near the bottom. The Gaels knocked the Eagles out of the (conference) tournament last year, winning by six at a neutral site. This year's Iona team is arguably even stronger. Prior to the season, Rick Pitino acknowledged as much: "... it's a much better team than last year's team." I like that the Gaels have been winning, but not covering, as that has helped in keeping this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. Note that they're 15-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. Consider that Iona was just laying -15.5 against Manhattan, a team arguably more talented than Niagara. I also like that Pitino has been unhappy with his team and demanding more. Afte the 8-point win over Manhattan, he was quoted saying: "I don't think we're playing great basketball right now and that bothers me. Where am I at in the season right now? I'm not pleased. It's up to us to do something about it. We're certainly happy with winning any game. But we're not happy with the way we played against Marist. We're not happy with the way we played against Saint Louis. And we're certainly not happy with the way we shot free throws tonight." With a tough game at Monmouth on deck, I say Pitino keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. He'll recognize that a blowout win would be great for morale/momentum and that's what I expect his team to deliver this afternoon. |
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01-16-22 | Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on PSU/OSU UNDER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 130. That was at Penn State, where the Nittany Lions were able to put up 64 points. The Lions figure to have trouble matching that number on the road. The Lions are playing their best defense in recent memory of late though. Last time out, they allowed just 49 points. They've allowed 74 or fewer points in every game in 2022. The only team to score more than 70 against them was Purdue, which got 74. Penn State has a player (Seth Lundy) who is doing a great job of guarding the opposing team's top player and he'll be charged with slowing down OSU's E.J. Liddell. PSU coach Shrewsberry said this of Lundy: "At the start of the year, there probably wasn't anybody in here that was waving the Seth Lundy all-defensive team flag. Seth Lundy has guarded the best player, or one of the best players, on every single team this year. He's making it tough on people. His athleticism, length, attention to detail -- that attention to detail has really improved." The UNDER is 14-7 the past 21 times that the Lions were off a victory. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-15-22 | Idaho v. Idaho State -4 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have been off for some time; their last game was on 1/1. That 2-week break came at the right time. At the time, they were road-weary and not playing their best. The break offered time to recharge and regroup. Facing instate rival Idaho in their first game back is ideal. The Bengals are a respectable team which was playing badly. The Vandals are just a bad team. Idaho State brought back five starters from last season. Idaho brought back one. Those experienced Bengal players will be happy to see a team which they beat won both meetings against last season. (One win came by 26 points. The other was by six.) Both teams are 0-4 to start conference play. However, while the Vandals are allowing 88.2 ppg (49.6% fg) in their four loses, the Bengals are allowing just 68.5 ppg (41.5% fg) in theirs. Look for the Bengals to dictate the tempo and for their superior defense to ultimately lead to a much-needed win and cover. |
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01-15-22 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 212.5 | Top | 117-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Atlanta OVER the total. These teams played a couple of low-scoring games against each other earlier. However, I'm expecting plenty of points in this one. The Knicks, who beat Dallas in their last game, have seen the OVER go 3-1 when off an 'upset' win. They'll face an Atlanta team which has allowed a minimum of 115 points in seven of its last nine games. The OVER is 26-14 the past 40x that the Knicks were off a double-digit win. With the Hawks off a game last night, NY will look to push the pace. With games here averaging nearly 222 points this season, look for the OVER to improve to 7-3 the past 10 times that NY was off a double-digit win. |
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01-14-22 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 217 | Top | 112-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Memphis OVER the total. I successfully played on the Grizzlies to go 'under' the total in last night's game against Minnesota. That was an extremely high O/U line though. Tonight, we're working with a considerably lower O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Though it stayed below the big number, last night's game was still high-scoring. The Grizzlies combined with Minnesota for 224. Their last four games have had combined scores of 231, 246, 224 and 224. Note that the 246 game occurred the last time that they played the second of b2b games, the same situation they're in here. As a team, the Grizzlies have now scored a minimum of 110 points in eight straight games. They're averaging more than 120 ppg their past five. For their part, the Mavs are averaging a healthy 111.4 ppg in division games. Off a low-scoring game at MSG, they'll be happy to play at a faster pace tonight and will bounce back with a much better offensive effort. Both teams putting up a big number means we can expect a high-scoring affair. |
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01-14-22 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by leass than four points. The Rams are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they road underdogs of three or fewer points. They're 18-29 ATS their last 47 in that role. While the Rams are stingy on defense, they average only 63 points per game on offense. The Bonnies are averaging more than 70, more than 78 per game, here at home. The Bonnies make 47.7% of their field goals here compared to 41.2% on the road for VCU. The last meeting on this floor saw the Bonnies favored by three points. They won by a 70-54 score. The Rams' roll comes to an end here. |
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01-13-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Memphis UNDER the total. I've recently won with the T-Wolves 'over' the total. So, I'm well aware that they've been playing some high-scoring games of late. That said, those results have been worked into the generously high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Note that the UNDER is 5-0 the past five times that the Grizzlies were home favorites. While the earlier meeting here finished above the total, it should be mentioned that the game went to OT. Without doing so, it would have finished with 226 points. The Grizzlies don't usually see O/U lines this high. The UNDER is 26-15 the past 41 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 230 or more. With the UNDER also 8-5 the past 13 times that they played with 'revenge,' look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-13-22 | Colgate +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLGATE. I won with the Raiders in their last game. They crushed Army, 76-57. That victory snapped a losing streak and I expect it to provide positive momentum for the longtime class of the Patriot Conference. The Raiders went 50-16 the past four years in conference play. During that span, they became the first team in conference history to reach the championship game in four straight years. This year's team is flying under the radar at the moment, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Raiders brought back four starters from last year. They're a well-coached and complete team. Navy is indeed tougher than Army. However, the Raiders can absolutely win this game outright. They beat the Midshipmen by seven points, each of the past two meetings. Navy's Greg Summers is questionable. With or without him, expect the Midshipmen to have their hands full the entire way. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the visitors score the outright win. |
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01-12-22 | St. John's v. Connecticut UNDER 150.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. John's/UConn UNDER the total. When these teams faced each other last season, the O/U line was 140.5. With the Red Storm making 46.7% of their 3-point shots, the teams combined for 144 points. This evening, we're working with a considerably higher O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Even with last year's game finishing above the number, the Red Storm have seen the UNDER go 13-8 on the road, the past couple of seasons. Going back further finds the UNDER at 15-8 when they were road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. While the Huskies can score, they're also very stingy. They're allowing just 54.9 ppg here, visiting teams connecting on only 36.8% of their field goals. The Huskies will be determined not to let the Red Storm shoot as well as they did here last season. The Red Storm, for their part, know that they gave the Huskies real trouble last season and they'll be looking for a similar defensive effort. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that UConn scored 80 or more points, in its previous game. |
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01-12-22 | Heat v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the first of three meetings between these teams, over the next nine days. They'll meet again, at Miami, on Friday. Knowing that the Heat are much better on their home floor (12-4 compared to 13-11) than on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. While the Hawks have really struggled over the past month or so, they're better than those results suggest and they're finally, slowly, getting healthy. Tonight, it's the Heat which will arguably be impacted more by missing players. While they didn't get the result that they wanted, I liked the improved defensive effort from the Hawks last game. Interim coach Jent noted: "I thought overall our defense was good. The transition defense, when can keep people out of transition, we give ourselves a chance. We didn't give the Clippers a fast-break basket in the first half ..." The Hawks won by 15 the last time that the teams played here. I see them digging deep and coming away with a much needed victory, picking up the cover along the way. |
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01-11-22 | New Mexico v. UNLV -6 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Rebels are chomping at the bit to get a piece of the Lobos. The Rebels closed 2021 on a roll. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their final four games of the year; all four victories came by double-digits. They rang in 2022 with a close loss to a stingy San Diego State team. Then, they had their game against Air Force postponed. So, this is a team anxious to return to play and to get back to the way it was playing "last year." New Mexico should be the perfect opponent to get this year's first victory against. The Rebels won two 2021 meetings with the Lobos by 30 combined points. Unlike the Aztecs, who held UNLV to 55 points. The Lobos are not a good defensive team. That's particularly true when they're on the road. In five games, away from New Mexico, they're allowing an average of 83.8 points. Opposing teams are connecting on 47% of their field goals, in those games. On the other hand, the Rebels are allowing just 62.5 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 37.5% of their field goals. New Mexico lost players Muscadin (left team) and Manuel (suspension) in November and December. Both were expected to be a big part of this season's plans. Prior to the game vs. SDSU, the Rebels had scored 80 or more in three straight. Expect the offense to regain its form and for the Lobos to ultimately be unable to keep up. |
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01-11-22 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/NO OVER the total. These teams played a few low-scoring games against each other, early in the season. With the T-Wolves now clicking on offense, I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring game this evening. Last time out, the Wolves scored 141 points. In their previous game, they scored 135. I've mentioned before that Minnesota road games have been much higher scoring than Minnesota home games. On the road, the Wolves have seen their games average 228.3 points. The OVER is 14-5 when they play away from Minnesota. The opposite is true of the Pelicans. Their home games have been (slightly) higher-scoring than their road games. Note that New Orleans has been shaky defensively of late. Over their past five games, the Pelicans are allowing 115 points, while allowing opposing teams to connect on 48.3% of their field goals. On a 4-game winning streak, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past nine times that Minnesota had won three or more consec. games. During that span, the OVER is also 9-2 when the Wolves were off a game where they scored 130 or more. Expect those stats to improve. |
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01-10-22 | North Dakota State -7 v. Denver | Top | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on NDSU. The Bison have dominated the Pioneers for years. NDSU has won six straight meetings winning by an average of 12 points. These teams are at opposite ends of the Summit Conference again this season. The Bison returned all five starters. In fact, they got back eight of their top nine scorers from last season, including each of their top six. Not many teams can say that. Denver certainly can't. The same Bison players beat Denver by 26 the last time the teams faced each other. While the Pioneers are off a victory, they haven't been able to string them together. All five of their previous victories have been followed by a loss. They even lost to Ottawa. Last time they were off a win, the Pioneers lost their next game by 17 points. The Bison have advantages all over the floor. They're stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They're 4-1 ATS their past five as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect a double-digit win. |
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01-10-22 | Spurs v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. After playing at Brooklyn yesterday afternoon, at the end of a long road trip, one which began "last year," I don't expect the Spurs to have much left in the tank this evening. While they recently beat Boston, when playing the second of b2b games, this one sets up differently. Prior to that Boston game, the Spurs had been blown out by Toronto the previous day. They'd also had two days off, prior to that Toronto game. On the other hand, yesterday saw the Spurs lose a heartbreaker. They left it all on the floor and nearly scored the upset. In the end, however, they lost by two points, in OT. So, the first game of the b2b set was far more grueling (and gut-wrenching) this time. Also, unlike the setup for the previous b2b situation, this time, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four days. In fact, this will mark their fifth game in the past seven days. The Knicks, on the other hand, had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, after getting hammered by Boston on Saturday. The Knicks already won, at SA, by a dozen points. While the Spurs would love to avenge that loss, they're just 4-7 ATS (2-9 SU) their last 11, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for the Knicks to have fresher legs and for them to pull away for another double-digit win, improving to 15-8 ATS their last 23, against teams from the Southwest. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. The Badgers have played well. As per usual, they're solid. Top scorer Johnny Davis is going to be a handful. That said, when the smoke clears, I expect the Badgers to stumble against what I believe to be an undervalued Maryland team. Note that Wisconsin is 8-16 ATS, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. The Terps are loaded themselves. Talented and experienced. Remember, they entered the season with a higher ranking than Wisconsin. Their first two games of 2022 have both been on the road, at tough venues. So, there was no shame in losing both. (They went 1-1 ATS.) They closed out 2021 with b2b double-digit wins here at home though. Backing home, seeking that first conference victory, they're going to be giving it everything they've got. Maryland (interim) coach Danny Manning noted: "We can't wait to get back in front of our fans. We need their energy, their enthusiasm and their love." Look for that energy to prove to the difference, the Terps bouncing back with a much-needed victory. |
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01-09-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Thunder are off a defensive dud last time out, as they allowed 135 points to the T-Wolves. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on the 'over.' Those types of games have been rare though, particularly at home. Despite failing to cover in that game, the Thunder are still 9-3 ATS their last 12 games. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS their last eight. The last time they were on the road, they lost by 14. I had a big play on the Thunder when they upset the Nuggets here on 12/22. Including a 108-94 loss in that game, the Nuggets are 3-2 their last five on the road. However, two of the three victories were by three points. So, only one of their last five road games has been a big win. That came against a terrible Houston team, which was playing the second of b2b games and the Nuggets still won by only 11. The Nuggets score 106 ppg and the Thunder are 13-4 ATS their last 17 against teams which average 108 or fewer points, per game. Grab the points. |
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01-08-22 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/Detroit OVER the total. This game features a pair of "non-playoff" teams, both of which are poor defensively. Both will be happy to face a defensively-challenged opponent and to be involved in a winnable game. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair. Orlando allows 111.5 ppg. Detroit allows 111.1. Both have been worse than those averages recently, too. The Pistons are allowing 114.8 ppg their past five. The Magic are allowing a whopping 119.4 ppg their past five, opposing teams hitting a high 48.7% of their field goals. Speaking of defensive field goal percentage, Detroit ranks last in the Eastern Conference, second worst in the NBA, in that category. These teams are also the two worst in the Eastern Conference (third and fourth worst in the NBA) at defending the 3-point shot. The Pistons have only been favored twice this entire season. Both those games, the first of which came against these same Magic, finished above the number; the OVER is 19-12 when they were favored the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the OVER also a proritable 37-20 when the Pistons were off a game where they scored 100 or less. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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01-08-22 | Arkansas State -1 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I really like how this one sets up for the Red Wolves. Both teams played Thursday. The Red Wolves lost by six to a tough Louisiana team. The Warhawks won by eight against a relatively weak Arkansas Little Rock team. The Red Wolves narrowly missed the cover while the Warhawks covered by a bucket. Thursday's loss notwithstanding, the Red Wolves are a good team. Losses have been few and far between and they've responded to them with victories. Off their loss to Texas Tech, they bounced back and hammered Air Force by 22 points. They're 12-7-1 ATS their last 20, off a conference loss. They're also 15-5 ATS their last 20, excluding pushes, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. On the other hand, ULM is an ugly 4-17 SU the past 21 times it played with one or less day's rest. Arkansas State won both meetings last season and brought back all five starters from that team. The Red Wolves are the stronger, deeper team and will enjoy an advantage inside. Expect a victory. |
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01-07-22 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 214.5 | Top | 135-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/OKC OVER the total. These teams just faced each other, at Minnesota, on Wednesday. The T-Wolves won a relatively low-scoring affair. I'm expecting considerably more points in Friday's rematch. Yet, the O/U line is lower than it was. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Playing on their home floor, the Thunder figure to be more competitive and will score more. However, they'll need to, as Minnesota scores (and allows) considerably more points on the road, than it does at home. That's led to the OVER going 12-5 when the Wolves play away from Minnesota. The last time that the T-Wolves played here, the teams had 145 points by halftimes and finished with 238. That's three of their past four visits here which have produced a minimum of 236 combined points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-07-22 | Cornell v. Pennsylvania -3.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on PENNSYLVANIA. Both teams have started Ivy League play with a victory. Playing at home, I expect the Quakers to be the team which moves to 2-0. While the Ivy League canceled last season, the Quakers are 9-4 SU (10-3 ATS) at home the past few seasons. During that span, the Big Red are just 4-17 on the road. The Quakers were favored by 11 points the last time that they hosted the Big Red. They won by 14. This year's team is arguably every bit as strong. Prior to the season, Penn coach Donahue noted: "We're more talented actually than we've ever been." While the Big Red are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off a conference win, the Quakers are 5-2 ATS when off a conference win. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday. |
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01-06-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 216 | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/NO OVER the total. The Warriors are off a low-scoring game against Dallas last night but we'll see considerably more scoring tonight. The last time that the Warriors were off a loss, they scored 123 their next game, combining with Utah for 239. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they allowed 119 to Toronto. That game also finished above the number. The Pelicans allowed 123 last game. They've allowed at least 115 in each of their last three games, an average of more than 124 in those three games. The OVER is now 26-5 their last 31 games played in Janhuary. More of the same tonight. |
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01-06-22 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -10.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on VERMONT. The Wildcats have been great at the betting window this season. They've got a solid team this year. However, tonight, they're up against the longtime class of the conference. Expect the Catamounts to remind them of that. New Hampshire was getting pretty excited a few years ago, too. The 2017 team won 20 games. Then, it ran into Vermont in the conf. tournament. Last year, Vermont finished tied for the conf. lead (5th straight year it was first) but lost to Hartford in the conf. tournament. This year's team brought back all five starters and enters America East play with a chip on its shoulder. Both teams have been out of action for quite a while. Vermont last played on 12/22. New Hampshire hasn't played since way back on 12/13 though. That's a long time to be out of action. Last season's first meeting was at NH. Laying -13, the Catamounts won by exactly 13. The game here at Vermont saw the Catamounts favored by 15. They won by 23. Including that result, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS the past five in the series. Expect the Catamounts to make a statement with another double-digit win. |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers +1.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers got back on track last game. This should be a 'sweet spot' for them to make it two in a row. Portland is missing a couple of big guns. However, the Heat figure to be missing a lot more. Miami has fought hard, despite being short-handed, in recent games. Jimmy Butler has now been added to the (lengthy) list of missing players though, as he has an ankle injury. Playing the fourth leg of a West Coast road trip, Butler's absence figures to take a lot of fight out of the Heat. The Blazers had four different players score more than 20 points last game, five players scoring in double-figures. They'll be too much for their short-handed guests to handle. |
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01-05-22 | Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa -7.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. The Panthers haven't fared too well as favorites this season. That changed last game though. Laying -11 points against Evansville, for their first game of 2022, the Panthers won by 22. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. This team is loaded, having brought back all five starters from last season. UNI has won four of the past five meetings with the Beacons, formerly known as the Crusaders. All four wins came by double-digits. While the Beacons managed 81 points last time out, they'll scoring far more difficult against the stingy Panthers. UNI is allowing an average of only 61.3 ppg at home. With Valparaiso just 5-11 ATS (4-12 SU) the past 16 times it scored 80 or more in its previous game, expect another double-digit win for the Panthers. |
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01-04-22 | Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 131 | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on AF/CSU OVER the total. Both teams have seen their "recent" games stay 'under' the total. For the Falcons, those games did indeed come recently. For the Rams, they've been out of action for quite a few weeks, due to a Covid shutdown. Either way, those results have helped to provide us with a relatively low O/U number for tonight's game. I believe it'll prove to be too low. While the Falcons do indeed have trouble scoring, the Rams do not. They average 83.4 ppg. At home, that number climbs to a whopping 89.3 ppg. While they allow only 67.5, that still adds up to 156.8 ppg. Over the past 2+ seasons, the OVER is 18-12 in CSU's home lined games. Happy to be back in action, the Rams should put up another fairly big number and I look for those stats to improve Tuesday night. |
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01-04-22 | Spurs v. Raptors UNDER 223 | Top | 104-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/SA UNDER the total. The Spurs saw their last game, at Detroit, finish above the total. However, that game went to OT. Twenty-three points were scored in the extra frame, only 210 in regulation. So, a tough loss for anyone who had the 'under' 222. The relatively low-scoring (regulation) was typical of this season's (SA) road games. Even factoring in the Pistons' game going over, the UNDER is still a healthy 12-5-1 when the Spurs play on the road. (Their home games have been a different story.) While the Spurs have played lower-scoring games on the road, the opposite is true of Toronto. The Raptors score fewer points and also allow less, when playing at home, Their home games are averaging 110.2 points. While recent Raptor games have been higher-scoring, that's reflected in the higher O/U line. Look for it to prove to be too high, the UNDER improving to 22-14 the past 36 times that Toronto played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. |
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01-03-22 | Maryland +8 v. Iowa | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. This is a lot of points. Too many, in my opinion. Iowa is off three straight big wins. The last two of those were against weak opposition though. Prior to that, the Hawkeyes had dropped three straight. With the exception of Utah State, the Hawkeyes haven't beaten a decent team by more than a single point. They beat Virginia by one. However, they lost against Purdue, Iowa St and Illinois. The rest of the schedule, besides that Utah State game, has been easy. So, the 10-3 record is a bit deceiving. Maryland started slowly but has won three straight of its own. That includes a victory over Florida. While the Terps have four losses, none of them came by more than eight points. Note that they're 2-0 ATS (and SU) the past two times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Terps haven't forgotten that that Iowa pounded them last year. The Hawkeyes arguably lost more from last year than Maryland did. Don't be surprised when the Terps return the favor. |
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01-03-22 | Magic v. Bulls OVER 221.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Orlando OVER the total. The Bulls have treated me well so far this season. I'm 5-1 in their games, 4-0 when playing totals. I've successfully played on them to go 'over' a couple of times recently, including their New Year's Day game against Washington and their 12/27 game against the Hawks. Both finished well above the number. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening. The Magic left it all on the floor in losing an OT game vs. Boston last night. They're going to be vulnerable to getting blown out tonight; the Bulls should put up a huge number. In the two games prior to last night's game, the Magic allowed 127 and 136 points. Chicago has scored at least 113 points in six of their last seven, 120 or more in four of those. The Bulls are missing some good players. They've got a lot of depth though and are able to replace the scoring. Not necessarily the defense though. That will allow the Magic to help contribute points of their own. It all adds up to a very high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 6-0 the last six, when the Bulls were off an ATS loss. |
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01-02-22 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 149 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Nebraska UNDER the total. The Buckeyes were involved in a high-scoring football game yesterday. I expect the opposite to be true of this evening's basketball game. When the Buckeyes visited here last season, the O/U line was in the mid-140s. Yet, the teams combined for only 129 points. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the Buckeyes played here. Scores were 129, 130, 133, 127, 130, 119 and 124. The Huskers haven't played since 12/22. The last time that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games, they managed only 58 points. Including that 68-57 loss, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Buckeyes have been off for even longer; they last played way back on 12/11. That could easily lead to some rust. Look for the UNDER to improve to 15-5 the past 20 times that the Buckeyes played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. |
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01-02-22 | Heat v. Kings +4 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are playing at home and they've got the much healthier team. Yet, they're still getting points. That shows how bad things have been in Sacramento lately. That said, the Kings did just earn a split with the Mavs and they're 2-1 their last three. This is an excellent spot for them to pick up a victory and I expect them to rise to the occasion. The Heat still have Butler, Lowry and Herro. They're missing nearly everyone else though. To their credit, they beat Houston last time out. Still, their previous game was cancelled, due to not even having enough players. They're still without the likes of Oladipo, Adebayo, Morris, Dedmon, Okpala etc. Its also worth mentioning that the Heat have a "big game" against the Warriors tomorrow night. (The Kings have tomorrow off.) The Heat are just 23-35-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit win. The Kings already had their turn dealing with Covid-issues. They won't show their short-handed guests any sympathy tonight. |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Washington OVER the total. Last season's three meetings all had O/U lines in the mid to high 230s. Of course, things have changed since last year. Not enough to warrant a drop of 20 points in the O/U line though. While both teams are missing some pieces, they've both got their primary offensive weapons. Scoring won't be an issue. Chicago's last visit here produced 263 points. The teams already had 139 by halftime. The Bulls have scored 108 or more in six straight games while the Wizards scored at least 110 in b2b games. The OVER is 4-2 when the Bulls played the second of b2b games. The last time that they were in that situation, they combined with the Hawks for 248 points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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01-01-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky -5 | Top | 61-55 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on NKU. The Norse dominate this series. They've beaten the Panthers 10 straight times. The average margin of victory was 11 points. The Norse are 4-0 ATS in the last four of those meetings, too. Each victory came by a minimum of nine points. Despite both of last season's meetings being played at Milwaukee, the Norse still won both games by 14 points. The Norse, a rare healthy team, brought back four starters from that team, too. Milwaukee only returned two starters. The Panthers might have had a puncher's chance if Patrick Baldwin Jr. was available. However, he's out with Covid. Browning and Kane are also out for the Panthers, which hurts their depth. The Panthers gave up 80 points last time out. That's b2b games, against Div 1 opponents, that they've allowed 80 or more. Note that they're 4-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more in their previous game. I say the Norse ring in the new year with a double-digit win. |
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12-31-21 | Knicks v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 80-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. Off b2b road losses, the Thunder will be happy to return home. They've played three games here since 12/18 and they won all three of them. Wins came against the Pelicans, Nuggets and Clippers. Catching a NY team without Randle and others provides an excellent shot at another win. I've mentioned recently that the second unit of the Thunder has been playing very well lately. The Thunder are 11-5 ATS against losing team and 20-12 ATS when listed as underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. Grab the points. |
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12-31-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. St Francis PA UNDER 148.5 | Top | 70-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fairleigh Dickinson/St. Francis UNDER the total. These teams played a pair of high-scoring games against each other, on b2b days, last January. The O/U lines were only marginally higher than this afternoon's O/U line is. However, things are much different this season. Fairleigh Dickinson lost a lot and is no longer going to be able to compete. The Knights have scored 55, 54 and 59 points, their past three games. That's a lot different than last year. Prior to last season's first meeting, the Knights had scored 69 or more in five of their previous six. St. Francis isn't exactly lighting it up, at the moment, either. The Red Flash have scored 64, 67 and 48 their past three games. That's a lot different than last year. The Red Flash entered last season's first meeting having scored 70 or more in four straight. The UNDER is 7-2 the past nine times that St. Francis had failed to cover its previous three games. With the UNDER also 7-3 the past 10 times that FD played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-30-21 | Abilene Christian v. Utah Valley -1 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH VALLEY STATE. These are two solid teams. Both played well in non-conference action. Both will be anxious to get WAC play started with a win. Playing at home, I expect the Wolverines to be the team which gets it done. This is the first conference game as a member of the WAC for the Wildcats. The last thing that the Wolverines want to do is to let a first-year team, led by a first-year coach, come in and beat them in their home (conference) opener. Remember, the Wolverines won at Washington last time out. Earlier, they beat BYU. One "big" advantage that the Wolverines have is Fardaws Aimaq. The 6-11, 240-pound center averages a double-double (19.4 points and 13.7 rebounds) and is one of the top big men in the country. He had a 15/15 line last game, 20/16 the game before that. The Wildcats would have been better equipped to deal with Aimaq last year, when they had 7-foot Kohl (and 6-foot-8 Pleasant) in their lineup. They don't though and will have no answer for the Utah Valley big man. Look for the Wolverines, 3-1 ATS their last four as home favorites of three or fewer points, to give the Wildats a rude welcome to WAC play. |
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers narrowly missed covering at Chicago, last time out. Now, they're back home and they've had a couple of days off between games. Having already lost both this season's meetings with the Hornets, they're going to be extremely hungry this evening. Note that both those games were at Charlotte and that Indiana lost by one point and three points. While the Hornets are off an impressive blowout against Houston, they're just 9-16 ATS the past 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. The Pacers were slight favorites for the last meeting here at Indiana. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss against the Hornets, they won by 27. Expect them to get some payback again this evening. |
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12-29-21 | VMI v. Wofford OVER 140.5 | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on VMI/Wofford OVER the total. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 164 points. While that game did go to OT, they still had 148 in regulation. Last season's first meeting saw 151 points scored. That's three straight between these teams which have exceeded the 150 mark. The Keydets are scoring big points again this season; they play at a very fast pace and they love to fire from beyond the arc. In fact, they rank third in the nation in three-pointers per game averaging 12.7. They've also hit 10 or more three-pointers in ten games already this season. Its noteworthy that the 'under' is 3-0 when VMI was listed as the favorte. However, the 'over' is 5-1 when the Keydets have been underdogs, as they are here. Currently, as of this writing, Wofford is favored by 11.5 points. Therefore, its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 21-5 the past 26 times that the Terriers were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-28-21 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 211 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Minnesota OVER the total. Off a hard-fought win last night, I expect a high-scoring game from the T-Wolves tonight. While last night's game snuck 'under' the number with 211 points, the OVER is still 9-3 on the month, in Minnesota games. The T-Wolves haven't played two games in two nights for roughly a month. The last time that they did so, the second game saw 241 points scored. While its been a different story in their games against teams from the East, the Knicks have seen the OVER go 5-3 in their games against Western Conf. opponents. Off their big win over a depleted Atlanta team on Christmas, it's also worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that NY was off a double-digit win. Going back further finds the OVER at 25-12-1 the past 38 times that NY was off a double-digit win. Look for those stats to improve here. |
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12-28-21 | Notre Dame -3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish haven't been covering too regularly. That's helped keep this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While they didn't cover, the Irish still won by 10 last time out. That's b2b wins and three of four. That includes a victory over Kentucky. With Duke on deck, they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. The Panthers lost last year's top player, Champagnie did a lot for them. Then, early this season, Horton (their top returning scorer) was arrested for aggravated assault. He's been suspended indefinitely Those were big losses. The Panthers didn't feel them so much in non-conf action but they will now that ACC play is here. The Irish won by 26 here last season. The combination of Champagnie and Horton had 27 of the Panthers' 58 points. To put that another way, the entire Pitt. lineup, minus those two players, scored only 31 points in last year's game. ND had 84. The Irish won't win by as many this year but they'll win by "enough." Look for them to improve to 18-9 ATS their past 27, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. |
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12-27-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Spurs have performed pretty well when playing the second of b2b games recently. However, those games haven't come against the revenge-minded Jazz. Even without Mitchell, the Jazz are loaded. They haven't forgotten that the Spurs upset them, at Utah. Note that the Jazz are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The last time that the Jazz played here was almost exactly one year ago. Laying six points, they won by 21. The Spurs may have won three straight but they're just 4-7 ATS (1-10 SU!) the past 11 times that they were on a 3-game winning streak. The Jazz outscore teams by a 114.5 to 102.5 margin on the road, best in the NBA. Expect them to avenge the earlier loss, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-27-21 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 208.5 | Top | 130-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Atlanta OVER the total. The Hawks had trouble scoring on Christmas. While they're still dealing with a lot of missing players, I expect them to bounce back with a better offensive effort this evening. Short-handed or not, they'll need to, if they want to compete. The Bulls scored 113 last night (113-105 final) and 133 and 115 in their previous two games. Note that the 133-point game (133-118 final) came the last time that the Bulls played the second of b2b games. It's also worth mentioning that the OVER is 7-3-1 the past 11 times that Chicago allowed 105 or fewer points in its previous game. Games here are still averaging more than 221 points per game. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Pacers v. Bulls -6 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Pacers are just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in divisional games. The lone ATS victory came against these same Bulls, last month. It was a 109-77 blowout. Considering that was their worst of the season, it's safe to say that the Bulls haven't forgotten. The Bulls have had some time off. In this case, its a good thing, as it has allowed them to get a number of players back. While last month's 109-77 blowout was here at Chicago, the Pacers are still 6-9 ATS (3-12 SU) on the road. The Bulls are still 9-5 ATS (10-4 SU) at home. Look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Bulls, as they improve to 5-3 ATS their last eight in the revenge role. |
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12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz -5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 256 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. *This play was released on Dec. 15th. Since that time, with Doncic (and others) out, the line has climbed. I still like the Jazz at the current, much higher pointspread. Dallas is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. As of this writing, on Dec 15th, Doncic has missed a few games in a row for the Mavericks. It appears that he'll miss at least a few more. Whether or not, he's back for Christmas Day, remains to be seen. Either way, the Mavs are going to struggle. Utah has been outstanding but is still arguably flying under the radar. The Jazz sit on top of their division and (as of this writing) have outscored teams by an average of 11.1 points per game. That's right there with the Warriors (11.6) but no other team in the entire NBA is even close to that mark. Brooklyn is best in the East at only +3.5. As for the Mavs, they're at -0.1. They score 104.4 and allow 104.5. The Jazz lost their last visit to Dallas. However, they've beaten the Mavs by double-digits, each of the past two meetings here at Utah. Scores were 120-101 and 116-104. More of the same on Christmas ... Good luck and wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season! |
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12-23-21 | Wolves v. Jazz -10.5 | Top | 116-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. This is a mismatch, at the best of times. The Jazz already won this season's earlier meeting by 32 points. These aren't normal times though and this "situation" is far from ideal, for the visitors. The T-Wolves are off a double-digit loss and they'll be without Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley, Josh Okogie, Taurean Prince, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Playing without those important players, at one of the toughest venues in the league, in their final game before Christmas, is going to be tough. The Jazz won't take them lightly though. They haven't forgotten that the Wolves beat them in both meetings here last season. They also recently lost two in a row, before bouncing back to win last game. So, they don't want to let down at all, prior to Saturday's showdown with the Mavericks. Note that Utah is 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games, 16-7 ATS (18-5 SU) it's last 23. The Jazz already outscore visiting teams by an average of 116.2 to 106.9. Again, this isn't a normal situation though. I see this one getting ugly. Jazz in a rout. |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. In the current NBA environment, it's tough to know which players are going to be available. While things seemingly change by the hour, one team which has currently managed to stay pretty healthy is OKC. I won with the Thunder in their last game and I've been really impressed with their recent effort. They're quietly playing their best basketball of the season. Often overlooked, the second unit has been strong. The defense has been stingy. They've allowed 103 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Note that they're 11-3 ATS their last 14, after allowing 105 or fewer points. They're 36-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. The Thunder's outright win, at Memphis, was preceded by a victory over the Clippers. They're 3-0 ATS their last three and 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Nuggets are well-rested. They haven't played since 12/17. However, that's not necessarily a good thing. In fact, they're 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) the past seven times that they played with three or more day's rest. While Jokic is one of the best players in the world, his supporting cast is banged-up. The backcourt is particularly depleted. Last game, the Thunder were playing with 'revenge' from a beating that the Grizzlies had given them. They also haven't forgotten that the Nuggets beat them by 30, the last game here. The previous meeting between these teams had been decided by only two points. With the Thunder off three straight games decided by three or less, I'm expecting another close one tonight. Grab the points.
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12-22-21 | Clemson v. Virginia -3 | Top | 67-50 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While the Cavs may not be what they were a few years ago, this line could still be higher. Virginia "got healthy" last time out and will carry the momentum into this evening's game. Laying 25 points, Virginia won by 33. The Cavs allowed a mere 49 points. They've now allowed 56 or fewer points in three straight games and seven of their past eight; the type of dominant defense we've come to expect from them. The Tigers don't fare too well when playing a road game which is expected to be low-scoring. They're 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven road games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cavs won by 35 the last time these teams met. They won by seven the last time the teams played here. They're 16-2 SU and 11-6-1 ATS the last 18 meetings here. Expect them to continue that dominance this evening. |
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12-21-21 | Pistons v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Det/NY OVER the total. This is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. I've had some success picking my spots with both of these teams to go 'over' the total. I've recognized that the Knicks aren't playing the same type of defense that they did last season. I've also pointed out, several times, that the Pistons allow opposing teams to connect on a higher rate of their field goals than any team in the league. That continues to be the case, though they're not tied with Charlotte for that 'honor.' Facing a depleted Miami team, the Pistons managed to snap their 14-game losing streak, last time out. While that 100-90 win was a rare good defensive effort, the Heat were very short-handed. Also, note that the OVER is 3-1 the past couple of seasons, after Detroit allowed 90 or fewer points in its previous game. During that same span, the OVER is also 15-8 when the Pistons were off a double-digit win. Three of Detroit's last four games have finished with more than 220 points. Meanwhile, NY has seen its past two games finish with scores of 219 and 221. The O/U line was 206.5 the last time that Detroit visited MSG. The teams combined for 218. More of the same tonight. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Musketeers have gotten off to a great start. Tonight, however, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Keep in mind that Villanova has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Wildcats have taken on the likes of Purdue, UCLA and Baylor, three of the top five teams in the country. Other opponents have included Tennessee and Syracuse. Xavier has beaten some solid teams, like Ohio State, V-Tech and Oklahoma State. However, those teams aren't in the elite class of the ones that Villanova has been contending with. The Wildcats are already "battle-tested" against the best and that should serve them well tonight and going forward in Big East play. While the Wildcats may have lost b2b games, they're still one of the strongest and best coached teams in the country. Xavier coach Steele knows what's coming. He commented: "... we know we're gonna get their best shot. They're coming off a loss against Creighton and a loss to Baylor before that. I know this, coach Jay Wright's gonna have them playing at a very, very high level on Tuesday night." Indeed. The Cats have dominated Xavier here and that will continue. |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. These teams faced each other on 12/2 and the Grizzlies absolutely embarrassed the Thunder. The final score was 152-79! That's the type of loss you don't forget and this is a great spot for OKC to get some revenge. That humbling blowout got the Thunder going, as they've been better ever since. They're off b2b wins and are 4-2 ATS their last six games. Last time out, they held the Clippers to just 103 points. Note that they're 12-8 ATS their last 20 in the 'revenge' role and 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they held their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points. That win over the Clippers came on Saturday and the Thunder had yesterday off. They had two days off before the Clipper game, too. That's not the case for the Grizzlies. They're off a hard-fought loss against Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Grizzlies will also be playing their third game in the past four days. Schedule in their favor, look for the revenge-minded Thunder to give their hosts all that they can handle. |
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12-20-21 | Western Carolina v. Georgia -10 | Top | 79-85 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. These teams last met two years ago. The Bulldogs were favored by 16 points. They won by 21. While the Bulldogs are laying a smaller number this evening, I'm expecting another blowout. Off a loss to George Mason, the Bulldogs are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. That was their first game without Jailyn Ingram and the Bulldogs missed him. However, as coach Crean noted: "Now we have a game under our belt without him. There's no question that it was different. But that's what we have now. Guys have to understand that this is our team." Crean went on to comment: "The problem for us, at times, was that we didn't follow the game plan defensively. And that just can't happen. We've got to be more physical. We've got to be more tuned into what we do, awareness-wise." I expect the Bulldogs to listen to their coach and for them to be far more physical and intense on defense. As of this writing, the O/U line is 145.5. That projected pace figures to favor the Bulldogs. They're 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11 home games, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During that span, the Catamounts were 4-6 ATS (1-9 SU) in 10 road games with an O/U line in that range. Going back further finds them at a dismal 13-34-1 ATS (5-43 SU) in 48 road games with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Catamounts haven't played for awhile and may have some early rust. Look for the Bulldogs to jump all over them and keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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12-18-21 | Warriors v. Raptors -8.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. This line could easily be higher. Not only are the Warriors playing the second of b2b games, but they're reportedly only sending nine players to this game. That list of nine players doesn't include Curry, Wiggins, Green, Poole, Porter or Iguodala. While I'm sure that the remaining players will fight hard, they're going to be outmatched. The well-coached Raptors will know better than to take their short-handed guests lightly. The Raptors are playing well right now, as they're 5-1 ATS in December. Last time on this floor, they won by 23 points. Look for them to take advantage of this favorable situation, ultimately pulling away for another double-digit win. |
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12-18-21 | CS Bakersfield v. Colorado -13 | Top | 46-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. Admittedly, Colorado has been a little inconsistent. That said, if the Buffaloes play up to their potential, this is a mismatch. I believe that they will. With Kansas on deck, followed by Pac 12 play, the Buffaloes need to put it all together. CSU Bakersfield is the perfect opponent to do that against. The Roadrunners are off a double-digit loss against Abilene Christian. They're averaging only 56.7 ppg on the road (39.4% field goals) and are going to have trouble scoring here. Note that they're 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13, when playing a road game with an O/U kine in the 120s. Meanwhile, during that span, the Buffaloes are 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -18 range. Colorado coach Tad Boyle had this to say: "I would sure like to put 40 minutes together, and we haven't even come close this year. We haven't even scratched the surface ... " Expect the Buffs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a blowout victory. |
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12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -2 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers are desperate to snap their skid. I expect their very best effort. I also believe that Charlotte is the perfect opponent for them to snap their skid against, as they've long dominated the Hornets here. The Hornets beat Portland in this season's earlier meeting. However, that was at Charlotte. The Hornets aren't as good on the road. Recent losses notwithstanding, the Blazers are stronger at home. That first meeting also saw Ball lead the Hornets with 27 points. He's missed games recently though and is currently questionable for this one though. Even if he does return, his conditioning may not be at 100%. Either way, the Blazers are going to be bringing it. They also lost at Charlotte last season. However, in the game here at Portland, they beat the Hornets by double-digits. Including that result, they're 13-4 ATS and 15-2 SU the past 17 meetings here. Enough's enough. Blazers bounce back. |
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12-17-21 | South Alabama v. Tarleton St +2.5 | Top | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on TARLETON STATE. These teams just met, at South Alabama. The game was close. The Texans had a lead at halftime. However, playing at home, the Jags won the second half, picking up the victory while covering by half a point. With this evening's rematch being played at Tarleton, I expect the revenge-minded Texans to get some payback. The Texans have taken on the best teams in the country. Literally. Their opponents have included Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan as well as "lesser" teams like Stanford and Wichita State. The Jags also faced the Shockers (both teams lost by 14) but didn't go up against any of the others that I mentioned. Anyway, I expect that extremely difficult schedule to start serving the Texans well. They're 3-1 SU at home and the lone loss came by two points, as a 16.5 point underdog. They know they can compete with this team and I expect the Texans to score the minor upset. |
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12-16-21 | Knicks v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Houston OVER the total. After having trouble scoring against some tougher defenses, the Knicks are going to be happy to visit the defensively challenged Rockets. They scored 122 in last year's game here. The Rockets saw last night's game sneak below the total. However, prior to that game producing 'only' 213 points, the Rockets had seen eight of their previous 10 games finish above the total. Their previous game had seen 258 points scored. All in regulation. They've allowed 120, 136 and 113 points the past three times that they played the second of b2b games, an average of 123. All three of those games finished above the number. The Rockets will be happy to return home. They've scored at least 114 in each of their past four games here. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-16-21 | Chicago State v. IUPU-Indianapolis OVER 120 | Top | 61-55 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on IUPUI/Chicago State OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. For both teams, its the lowest they've seen all season. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Jaguars lost a lot from last year and having trouble scoring. That's reflected in the low O/U line. They've largely been underdogs though. Here, they're stepping down in class. They're favored against a team with a porous defense. Note that the Jags have seen the OVER go 19-8 the past few seasons, when facing a team with a losing record. The Cougars have a new coach and five new starters from last year. That's particularly shown up on the defensive end of the floor. Chicago State is allowing an average of 80 ppg on the road. In those five games, host teams have hit 48.7% of their field goals. Overall, they've allowed 70 or more points in six of their past seven. Meanwhile, IUPI has allowed 69, 70 and 78 its past three games. Both teams are going to view this as a chance at a rare win and both will be trying to score the entire way. Look for the OVER to improve to 4-1 in the Cougars' five December games. |
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12-15-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 211.5 | Top | 113-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/OKC OVER the total. This is the second lowest total on the Wednesday NBA board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team. They allow 109.9 ppg, seventh worst in the NBA. They also allow opposing teams to hit 47.3% percent of their field goals. That's the second worst mark in the entire NBA. On the road, the number (47.9%) climbs even higher. The Thunder have not been playing good defense recently either. Over their past five games, they're allowing an average of 116.6 points, opposing teams connecting on 47.7% of their field goals. With both teams pushing hard for the win the entire way, look for the OVER to improve to 13-8 the past 21 times that the Pelicans played with two day's rest in between games. |
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12-15-21 | Akron v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. The Zips are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Raiders have been the best team in the Horizon the past few years. When all is said and done, the Raiders will be at or near the top, again. The Raiders are well-rested, having last played on 12/4. The last (and only) time that they played with seven or more day's rest this season, they won by 13, as a four-point favorite. The Zips are no slouches. They'll have a tough defense and should have a solid season. However, it's going to be difficult for them to keep up with Wright State in this one. The Raiders, who scored 86 points in their lone home game, are going to want to get out and run. Akron is averaging 55.7 ppg on the road. Playing at home will help Wright State dictate a faster tempo than Akron wants to play at. Behind a big game from Grant Basile, look for the Raiders to come through with the win and cover. |
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12-14-21 | Alcorn State v. Wichita State -20 | Top | 63-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Braves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Alcorn State has played an absolutely grueling road schedule thus far. To their credit, the Braves have been relatively competitive. Still, it's starting to catch up with them. They've had some close losses but they've also had four double-digit losses. A 22-point loss at Houston in their last game was excusable, as the Cougars are tough. However, in their previous game, the Braves lost by 21 at Tulane. The Shockers are a lot stronger than the Green Wave. Like their guests, the Shockers have played some tough opponents. They've also had a few close losses. However, they also have wins over the likes of UNLV, Missouri and OK. State. They beat Norfolk State by "only" 13 last time out, narrowly missing the cover. The Spartans won their league title and went to the NCAA Tournament last year though; they're stronger than Alcorn State. The Braves' blowout loss at Tulane came after they'd had a break in between games. That's the case again here. It's going to be hard for them to go back on the road and "get up" for another blowout loss. I say the Shockers keep their foot on the gas the whole way and run their road-weary guests right out of the building. |
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12-14-21 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 215.5 | Top | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Brooklyn OVER the total. Both these teams "got healthy" on offense last time out. The Nets gave Harden a well-deserved rest Sunday. As expected, Durant picked up the slack. As a team, the Nets hit 47% of their shots and scored 116 points. They could have scored more, if the Pistons had been hitting more of their shots. Meanwhile, the Raptors put up 124 points last night. Likewise, if the Kings had pushed them a little further, the Raptors could have scored more. The offense was clicking, the Raptors connected on a whopping 54% of their field goals. Remarkably, nine Toronto players reached "double-digits" in points. As it was a blowout and they were getting so many players involved and with the Raptors having had the previous two nights off, the b2b situation isn't a big deal. It should also be mentioned that Raptor road games are higher-scoring than games at Toronto. Yet, we're still working with a relatively low total. Each of the past five meetings has produced a minimum of 217 points. Those five games averaged a high 233.4 combined points. This season's first meeting finished above the number. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than expected. |