Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa -1 | Top | 72-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. 10* MAIN EVENT. With the pointspread likely a non-factor, I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by an average score of 87.2 to 75.6 here. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are 2-5 away from home, getting outscored by a 75 to 69-point margin. Going back further finds Ohio State at 10-16 in true road games the past 2+ seasons, while Iowa is 37-9 at home. Hawkeyes bounce back. |
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01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | Top | 80-72 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off a loss last time out, the Grizzlies are going to be in a foul mood tonight. The Phoenix are a capable team and they average a healthy 79.8 ppg. In fact, thats more ppg than Oakland, which averages 78. However, the Grizzlies tend to be at their best against high-scoring teams and the Phoenix remain below .500 on the road. The well-coached Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS the past couple of seasons against teams which score more than 77 ppg. During that stretch, they're also an outstanding 32-15 ATS against teams with a winning record overall. While GB may score more points per game overall, the Phoenix get outscored on the road, where they allow a whopping 79.6 per game. Oakland, on the other hand, outscores teams by an average score of 82.4 to 69.7 here at home. The Grizzlies have dominated the Phoenix here, including an 18-point win last season and a 20-point win here two seasons ago. I'm expecting another double-digit win this evening. |
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01-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -4 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. These teams have split a pair of meetings this season. In both cases, the home team won and covered. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. The Hawks are a solid 13-9 at home. The Wizards are a terrible 6-14 on the road. Atlanta averages 105.5 ppg at home while Washington allows 107.9 ppg on the road. Lay the small number. |
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01-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 212.5 | Top | 112-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta and Washington to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. This is a big game between the top two teams in the Southeast Division. I expect there to be a bit of a "playoff like atmosphere" and for that to translate to some extra intensity on the defensive side of the ball. True, the Hawks have seen three straight games top the total. However, thats also happened four other times this season. In each case, their next game fell below the total. Those games had scores of 93-90, 102-99, 107-99 and 102-93. One of the above four games (the 102-99 one vs. OKC) had an O/U line which was similar to this one. Including that result, the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 on the season, when the Hawks played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-27-17 | Nets v. Cavs -14.5 | Top | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team tonight. Lebron was clearly not happy in the post-game interviews after the Sacramento loss. I expect him to be "on a mission" tonight. Note that the Cavs are 1-0 SU/ATS after losing three straight this season. While the line may seem high, note that the Cavs are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) on the season, when favored in the -12.5 to -18 range. As for the Nets, they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. The Cavs have beaten the Nets by 20 points in each of the last two meetings here at Cleveland. I expect another blowout. |
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01-27-17 | Dartmouth +7.5 v. Columbia | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on DARTMOUTH 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Big Green had a terrible start to the season. They started to turn things around with three straight wins to close out December. However, they threw up an air-ball in their first game of 2017, losing by four points to CS-Bakersfield. Since then, they've played just two games - and both happened to come against Harvard, the top team in the Ivy League. Not surprisingly, they lost both of those, too. The Lions, who are off b2b close games (1 win, 1 loss) against Cornell, aren't in the same class as Harvard though. They're also one of a few teams with a better record away from home. With a big showdown on deck vs. Harvard on deck tomorrow, it may be easy to get caught looking past Dartmouth. That'll be a mistake though as Columbia isn't strong enough to overlook any team. Only three of the Lions' 15 games has resulted in a win by more than eight. Prior to the Harvard games, Dartmouth had seen five of six games decided by six or fewer points and the other was a 14-point win. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
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01-26-17 | Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 202 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah and LA to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. These teams have both seen their recent games stay below the total and I expect that trend to continue this evening. After five straight "unders," the Jazz saw four consecutive games finish above the number. Their last two games have gone the other way though, each staying comfortably below the total. Tonight, they'll face a team which they should be able to dominate on the defensive side of the ball. These teams have met three times this season, the Jazz winning all three. In the two games at LA, the Lakers were nearly able to keep up with the Jazz, scoring 100 and 101 points. However, the lone game here at Salt Lake City was lower-scoring. The teams combined for only 185 points in that one. Playing its second game in two days, LA, which has averaged only 85.5 ppg its last two outings, figures to have some trouble scoring again tonight. The Jazz allow a mere 93.4 ppg here at Utah. Opposing teams connect on only 42.4% of their field goals here. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 14-10 here on the year. Going back further finds the UNDER at 62-43-1 in games here the past 2+ seasons. The only previous time that the Jazz were laying more than a dozen points this season was a game against the 76ers. They won that one by a score of 100-83. Philadelphia made only 40.2% of its field goals. I'm expecting a similar result tonight. |
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01-26-17 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Oregon is admittedly a strong team which is playing well. The Ducks are fully deserving of their national ranking. That said, I believe that the Utes opened as favorites for good reason. The Utes, who lost by one here against UCLA, know that they desperately need a "signature win." They also know that this will be one of the last opportunities for them to get one. Utah didn't have very high expectations coming into the season. The Utes have proven to be much better than most expected though and come in full of confidence. They're 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) within the conference. They're also 8-5 ATS (12-1 SU) when laying points. The Utes 81.6 ppg has them ranked second in the conference, in terms of scoring. The number has been on the rise too, as they've scored 82 or more points in five straight games. Over that 5-game stretch, the Utes are averaging a whopping 87.6 ppg, on the strength of hitting 52.6% of their field goals. Including a 17-point loss at Baylor earlier in the season, the Ducks, who may again be without Dillon Brooks, are only 1-3-1 ATS (1-4 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Oregon coach Dana Altman had this to say about the Utes: "They're a greatly improved team with the two transfers they added at Christmas time. They're deep, they're experienced. I like their team. ... They're well-coached. They don't take bad shots. Their ball movement is really good. They're doing some different things defensively than they have in the past. Utah (against UCLA) ... went right down to the wire. That (final) shot didn't go in. If it goes in, they're probably talked about a little more." Don't be surprised to see the Utes crack the Top 25 in the next poll, after tonight's win and cover. |
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01-25-17 | Nevada v. Boise State -3 | Top | 76-57 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Wolfpack are coming off arguably their worst two-game stretch of the season. Normally a hard-working team, Nevada got "out-toughed," to borrow coach Musselman's words. They played terribly in the second half against lowly Air Force and then followed it up by losing outright - for the second time this season - to Fresno State. Nevada was outrebounded in those two games by a combined 72-49 margin. The Wolfpack were outscored in the paint by a combined 70-52 score. While this is still a talented, capable and well-coached team, a visit to Boise is NOT the place for them to get back on track. Nevada's recent rebounding woes figure to particularly hurt them here. That's because the Broncos are an excellent rebounding team, both on the offensive and defensive glass. In fact, they're the top rebounding team in the conference. While they did drop a game against New Mexico recently, the Broncos rarely lose here. In fact, only three teams have beaten them here over the past few seasons - and Nevada isn't one of them. The last two times these teams met here, the Broncos won by 19 and 32 points. The Broncos shook off the loss vs. New Mexico by recording a double-digit win at San Jose State. Note that they're 21-9 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a conference win. The Broncos are already 7-2 ATS when laying points this season. I believe they're catching the Wolfpack at the right time and I expect another win and cover this evening. *GOW |
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01-25-17 | 76ers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Bucks got back on track on Monday, posting a double-digit victory over Houston. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect them to deliver a repeat performance this evening. The 76ers are certainly playing a lot better these days. This is a tough spot for them though, as they're off a win vs. the Clippers last night. They were just in this situation a few days ago - off a win and playing their second game in two days - and they lost by double-digits vs. Atlanta. That 17-point loss dropped them to 1-8 SU, when playing the second of b2b games. The Bucks, who are 6-2 SU/ATS when coming off an "upset win," will be looking to settle a score, as the 76ers beat them here less than two weeks ago. I expect them to have their revenge, in "blowout fashion." |
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01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. With the Cavs off back-to-back losses, the Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Cavs already beat the Kings by 12, at Sacramento, a couple of weeks ago. In the last meeting here at Cleveland, the Cavs beat the Kings by 20. This one should also turn ugly. The Kings also had the misfortune of facing Cleveland off b2b losses the last time the teams met. However, this will mark the first time that the Cavs played a home game, following b2b losses. Needless to say, they're going to be in a foul mood and looking to make amends. With tomorrow off and Brooklyn on deck the next day, the Cavs have no reason to look ahead, or to hold back. Including this season's win, the Cavs have defeated the Kings four straight times. Those victories came by an average of 13 points. Fully motivated, I expect the Cavs to exceed that average here. |
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01-24-17 | Akron v. Western Michigan +4 | Top | 90-80 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN 10* BEST BET. I respect the Zips and succesfully backed them in their last game. However, I feel that the value lies the other way tonight. These teams faced each other a few weeks ago, at Akron. The Broncos gave the Zips a pretty good challenge, losing by seven, while listed as double-digit underdogs. They're a MUCH better team at home, too. In fact, the Broncos arguably have the biggest home/road disparity in the league. They're 0-11 SU in road/neutral games but 6-1 when playing at home. (The lone home loss came by five points, when they were +6 point underdogs.) Meanwhile, Akron is only 2-3 SU in true road games and both victories came by fewer than five points. Western Michigan, which has already covered the spread against the likes of UCLA, Washington and Villanova, is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Akron, on the other hand, is just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) record their past three times in that role. During the same stretch, Akron was only 2-4 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. With the Broncos at 14-5 ATS the last 19 (5-1 ATS L6) times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I'm taking the points. |
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01-23-17 | Warriors v. Heat +12 | Top | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, going against this very talented Golden State team can be a bit hard on the nerves. However, this should be an excellent spot to do so. Off three straight victories, the Heat are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. They already played the Warriors fairly tough at Golden State, losing by 12 as +14.5 point underdogs. They also covered the spread in both meetings against the Warriors last season, losing by six and eight points. While the Heat had yesterday off, the Warriors are off an afternoon game against the Magic. This will actually mark the first time since before Christmas that they played two games in two days. The last time that they were in that spot was on 12/23, when they failed to cover at Detroit. While they covered a larger number yesterday, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. With the Heat at 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season, I'm grabbing all those generous points. |
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01-23-17 | Wizards v. Hornets -4 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE Divisional GAME OF MONTH. These teams are neck-and-neck in the Southeast division. Washington is 23-20 overall. Charlotte is 23-21. Both teams have been much better at home. The Hornets are 15-7 at home but 8-14 on the road. Likewise, the Wizards are 18-6 at home but only 5-14 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Wizards finished on top when the teams met at Washington. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the Hornets to have the advantage. Both teams had Sunday off. While the Hornets have tomorrow off, the Wizards play Boston tomorrow, a team which recently defeated them. The 109-106 loss at Washington notwithstanding, the Hornets have been outstanding against divisional opponents. They're 6-1 SU/ATS against fellow Southeast opponents. The Hornets won both meetings here last season, taking them by an average of nine points. I expect them to finish on top once again. |
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01-23-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6 | Top | 80-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. While they've failed to cover a few recently, the Eagles are the currently the class of the Sun Belt. They're a perfect 6-0 in conference action. While they've been involved in a few close ones lately, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. The Chanticleers are off a terrible effort last time out, losing by 20 at Georgia State. They're now just 1-6 in true road games. ALL six losses came by double-digits. While Coastal Carolina connects on only 37.2% of its field goals away from home, Georgia State hits 49.4% of its field goals at home, while keeping its guests below the 40% mark. With the Eagles outscoring opponents by an average score of 90 to 71.4 at home, the Chanticleers' road woes figure to continue for another day. |
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01-22-17 | Virginia Tech v. Clemson -5.5 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. Playing in the ACC is tough; the Tigers have just completed a difficult stretch which included Louisville, Virginia, UNC and Notre Dame. While the Hokies aren't slouches either, this is a game that the Tigers know that they need to take advantage of. Clemson is 4-2 ATS its last six when favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-0 ATS this season. While the Hokies won last time out, that win came at home, against G-Tech. They're 0-2 SU/ATS off a conference win and only mediocre on the road. The Hokies won a close one at VT last season but the Tigers pounded them by 21 the last meeting here at Clemson. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. |
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01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, for the fifth time this season, the Raptors are going to be highly motivated to get back on track. In each of the previous four instances that the Raptors had lost two straight, they responded by winning their next game. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games, including 1-0 SU/ATS when playing here at Toronto. In addition to wanting to "get back on track," the Raptors will be motivated by the fact that Suns upset them, at Phoenix, a few weeks ago. A look back at that 12/29 game at Phoenix reveals that the Raptors were off a big game against Golden State the night before and playing their third game in four days. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. Not only are the Raptors playing at home, but this time they're the rested team. Phoenix, on the other hand, is off a game at MSG last night, vs. its former coach. In addition to the back-to-back spot, the Suns will be playing their third game in four days. |
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01-21-17 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -7.5 | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* CONF GAME OF YEAR. While they lost a couple of games here to begin the year, the Lobos have long been known for their homecourt advantage. Off back-to-back impressive road wins, I expect them to carry the positive momentum back to their home floor this evening. The Lobos have just accomplished something that no other team has done before, defeating San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State, all on the road, all in the same season. That's not something thats done by fluke. This is a very capable group of Lobos. They're going to have a ton of confidence entering today's game and will be hungry to keep the roll going. The Cowboys are off a road win of their own. However, that was their first road victory in conference play and it came against lowly San Jose State. This will mark the third time that the played two straight true road games. In each of the previous two instances, they lost the second of those b2b game by double-digits. While the Lobos are averaging 82 ppg their last five, the Cowboys are allowing 82.4 ppg their last five. New Mexico coach Craig Neal knows how important this game is and knows his team needs to take care of business at home. He commented: "Unfortunate that we didn't take care of the two home games. But I think our guys are in a good place." I also believe that Neal's crew, which is now 14-7 ATS its last 21 in January, is "in a good place." I expect them to put up a big number here with the Cowboys unable to keep up. *top Mountain West play |
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01-21-17 | Suns v. Knicks -5.5 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY 10* REVENGE GAME OF YEAR. While the Suns certainly have some capable players, the Knicks have the superior lineup. They're also much better at home than the Suns are on the road. The Knicks are 12-10 SU (14-8 ATS) here at MSG, the Suns are just 6-18 on the road. The Suns consistently give up a lot of points and they allow more than 113 ppg away from Phoenix. Speaking of bad defense, NY has been at its best, when coming off a sub-par defensive effort. Off a 113-110 loss against the Wizards last time out, note that the Knicks are a lucrative 17-8 ATS the past 25 times that they'd given up 105 or more points in their previous game. Looking at the game from a motivation standpoint and the Knicks should be the hungrier team. For starters, they're fighting for their playoff lives in the East, while the Suns are playing out the string in the West. If the season ended today, the Knicks would be out. They know they can't afford to squander a home game against the team with the worst record in the West. There's more to it than that though. Current NY coach Jeff Hornacek was fired by the Suns. The Knicks talked about winning his return to Phoenix for him last month but the Suns spoiled those plans by beating them, in OT. After that game, Hornacek commented: "I don't think we came out with the intensity that we needed to play the game." Expect Hornacek to have his team ready to go. In this case, the 'revenge' factor is real. |
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01-21-17 | Georgia v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 8* BLOWOUT. The Aggies, who advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, have admittedly gotten off to a tough start this season. Thats partly due to a difficult schedule and partly due to losses suffered from last year's team. That said, I still believe that they're a little better than their record indicates and I expect them to be "ready to go" on Saturday afternoon. Off an upset loss last time out and knowing their next two games are on the road, the Aggies know that they can absolutely cannot afford another loss this afternoon. Prior to the Arkansas loss, a game they let get away, the Aggies won their previous home game (LSU) by 30 points. This is still a team which gave UCLA all it could handle earlier in the season. The Bulldogs have been tough at home but only mediocre on the road. Georgia coach Mark Fox noted this of the Aggies: "... I think they're way better than what their record shows. I do think they have a really good balance between inside and outside scoring ..." While the visiting team has taken the last couple of meetings, I look for homecourt to be the difference this afternoon. |
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01-20-17 | Blazers -1 v. 76ers | Top | 92-93 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. The 76ers actually come in hotter. However, I still believe that the Blazers are the superior team and I expect them to show it this evening. Fighting for their playoff lives, the Blazers can ill afford a winless road trip. Their recent skid has seen them fall to 9th, a half game back of Denver. Knowing that tomorrow night's game at Boston will be tough, they know that they absolutely need to take care of business at Philly tonight. Note that the Blazers are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. For the past few weeks, there's been quite a lot of talk of a trade between these teams. Fairly rich at center, he 76ers may be interested in dealing Noel, as his contract expires at the end of the season. McCollum has been a big part of most of those discussions. Look for him and Lillard to lead the way tonight, their edge in the backcourt ultimately making the difference. |
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01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -5.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on AKRON 10* MAC GAME OF YEAR. These teams are both on top of their respective divisions. With a 15-3 overall record, Akron is #1 in the MAC East. At 12-6, Eastern Michigan is tied with NIU and Ball State for the top overall record in the MAC West. Playing at home, where they remain undefeated on the season, I expect the Zips to have the advantage here. The Zips have yet to lose at home all season long. They dropped their opening road game of the season and have since proceeded to go 15-2, the only losses coming at Gonzaga and Creighton. As of this writing, those teams are a combined 35-1. So, there's no shame in those losses. At home, the Zips are outscoring teams by a commanding 83.8 to 63.7 average margin. Going back further finds that Akron has actually won 26 straight games here, the third longest active streak in the country. The Eagles have also been tough to beat on their home floor. However, they're only 4-5 when not playing at home, 3-5 in true road games. While the Zips allow only 63.7 ppg on their home floor, the Eagles allow more than 76 ppg on the road. While the Zips are 7-1-1 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range, during the same stretch, the Eagles are 3-11 ATS (2-12 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. All things considered, the number could easily be higher. Expect the Zips to continue their homecourt dominance. |
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01-19-17 | Gonzaga v. Santa Clara +14 | Top | 88-57 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. The Broncos have been a profitable team when matched up against the Bulldogs in recent seasons. As per usual, Gonzaga has a strong team. The Bulldogs have been playing well, too. That said, I feel that this line will prove to be too high. Last time out, the Bulldogs blew out St. Mary's. As the Gaels have been the primary rival in the WCC for years, that could well be cause for a bit of an emotional letdown. The Broncos aren't slouches and I expect them to be come ready to play. Santa Clara is off back-to-back road wins. In their last home game, the Broncos crushed Portland by a 70-42 margin. In fact, they've won each of their last four home games by double-digits. The Broncos have only lost one game by more than 15 points all season. That came on the road. All three of their home losses came by single-digits. They were +15-point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Bulldogs and lost by only two. I expect the Broncos to give them all they can handle, once again. |
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01-19-17 | Mavs v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GAME OF WEEK. Its been more than a decade since these teams met in the finals now. While neither will be returning anytime soon, both are coming off impresive upset wins. The Mavs knocked off the Bulls last time out, earning their third straight win. The Heat defeated a red hot Houston team. I believe Miami will be the team which "stays hot" here. Though they had yesterday off, the Mavs have done alot of travel lately. After playing at Minnesota, they faced Phoenix in Mexico City. Then, back to Dallas, before moving on to Chicago. Note that they've only won b2b road games once all season. Tomorrow, they'll return home to host Utah. The Heat, on the other hand, have tomorrow off. and they haven't played a game outside of Miami since 1/13. While "winning streaks" have been few and far between, I believe that they're going to be hungry to follow up the win against Houston with another victory. A look at Miami's schedule shows that each of their recent victories has been followed by a road game. So, thats made winning consecutive games tough. They're well aware that tonight's game - against a Dallas team which is an ugly 6-16 on the road - provides them with an excellent opportunity. Its been a few weeks since the Heat were favored. The last time that they were laying points was before Christmas for a game against the Lakers. They won and covered. I expect the Heat, who won and covered both meetings against the Mavs last season, to protect their homecourt, taking advantage of a beatable opponent and winning back-to-back games for the first time in 2017. |
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01-19-17 | Maryland v. Iowa -1 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps bring the higher ranking into tonight's game. However, I expect the Hawkeyes to be the team which finishes on top. Its true that they've had trouble away from home. However, the Hawkeyes have continued to play very well here. In their last home game, they knocked off a strong Purdue team. That brought them to a perfect 7-0 their last seven games here. That includes a 78-64 blowout of Iowa State, which happened to be ranked #25 at the time. The Terps, who are off a 62-56 win at Illinois, will be playing their second straight on the road. That marks the first time that they will have played consecutive true road games this season. Note that they're just 9-16 ATS their last 25 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game, 2-3 ATS in that situation so far this season. The last time that they allowed less than 60 points, also against Illinois, they proceeded to lose outright vs. Nebraska in their next game. Behind a big effort from senior guard Peter Jok, who took the blame for the NW loss, look for the Hawkeyes, who won by 16 the last time they hosted the Terps, to bounce back and continue their strong play at home for another day. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Kings beat the Pacers in both games last season. That included a 108-97 victory here at Sacramento, almost exactly one year ago. I like their chances again tonight. This is the final game of a homestand for the Kings. Knowing that their next eight games will come on the road, including one at Indiana, the Kings should be highly motivated to earn a victory tonight. Note that they're already a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. I like the Pacers as a team and believe that they're probably a little better than their record indicates. That said, they've been terrible away from home all season. Indeed, they're 5-14 (SU and ATS!) on the road and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Pacers also an ugly 2-7 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the Kings. |
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01-18-17 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* GOW. I won with the Panthers in their last game. That 79-60 blowout of Drake snapped an extended losing streak; I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's contest. Note that they're 29-4 SU the last 33 times that they were off a conference win. While the Ramblers have been impressive at home, they've only won two of their six true road games. That includes a 4-point loss at Drake, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. While they were favored for the Drake game, the Ramblers are also already 0-1 SU/ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, having lost at Toledo. On the other hand, the Panthers are an impressive 24-11 ATS (25-10 SU) the past 35 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. The Panthers, who lost earlier this month at Loyola-Chicago, are also 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They're 39-9 SU the last 48 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-17-17 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 10* ANNIHILATOR. This season's Razorbacks have yet to lose against a team from Texas. However, I expect that to change this evening. Admittedly, the Aggies didn't play too well last time out, turning the ball over far too many times. That was on the road though. Some of you may recall that I also played on the Aggies in their most recent home game, a 30-point destruction of LSU. This is a team, battle-tested against the likes of UCLA, which has been much better on its home floor. Arkanasas, which has long struggled away from home, has still only played three true road games, losing two of them. Last season's game at Arkansas was close, the Aggies winning by three. However, the game here at College Station resulted in a 23-point rout, the Aggies moving to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host in this series. As of this writing, the O/U line is 146.5, across the board. While that may well change throughout the course of the day, I mention it because the Aggies are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The LSU beating was the most recent. (During the same stretch, Arkansas was 9-15 ATS and 7-17 SU when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range.) Ultimately, look for homecourt to again prove the difference, the Aggies earning the win and cover. |
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01-16-17 | Providence v. Georgetown -5.5 | Top | 74-56 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on G-TOWN 10* PERS FAV. Though they were unable to cover, I believe that the Hoyas will be able to carry some positive momentum from Saturday's victory over UConn. The Hoyas were down big in that one but were able to storm back in the second half. Off that momentum-building comeback, the Hoyas will now get a chance to avenge a recent loss at Providence. While the Friars are an outstanding 11-1 when listed as the home team, they're a dismal 1-6 in seven games away from Providence. They won a neutral site game against Memphis in November and have lost every game away from Providence since. That includes a loss at lowly Depaul, last time out. Payback time. |
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01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. As you know the Cavs knocked off the Warriors in the Finals last season. As you may also be aware, the Cavs beat the Warriors on Christmas Day, too. Those results should ensure we see the Warriors' very best game on Monday night. I expect that to be enough for a convincing win and cover. While they're an oustanding 18-3 at Cleveland, the Cavs are a medicore 11-7 on the road. The Warriors, also 18-3 at home, are an excellent 32-17-2 ATS (42-9 SU) the past few seasons, when playing with 'revenge.' Payback time. |
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01-15-17 | Pistons -2 v. Lakers | Top | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played against the Pistons in each of their past three games. In each case, I had reasons why. (Feel free to scroll through my past results/picks to find out what those reasons were.) Tonight, however, I believe the Pistons are going to be extremely motivated to close out their road trip with a victory. This is a trip which started out very well, before turning sour in the second half of the Sacramento game. A win tonight will salvage the trip, or at least keep it from being a complete disaster. The Lakers aren't a good team and they currently aren't playing well. They're off three straight losses, all coming by double-digits. The most recent of those came against the Clippers yesterday, putting LA in a back-to-back spot. (The Pistons had yesterday off.) This is projected to be a fairly high-scoring game and that figures to also favor Detroit. The Pistons don't generally see too many O/U lines this high. However, they are 2-1 ATS on the season when playing a game with an O/U line of 210 or greater, 7-3-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 in that situation. Going back further finds them at a profitable 30-14-1 ATS the last 45 times that they played a game with a total of 210 or greater. With the Lakers now a money-burning 27-46-3 ATS (18-58 SU) the past couple of seasons, with an O/U line of 210 or greater, I'm backing the rested and motivated visitors. |
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01-15-17 | Thunder v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* BEST BET. After winning with them a couple of game ago, in their victory over the Grizzlies, I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game, a double-digit loss at Minnesota. I feel that this will be another good spot to go against them. I won with the Kings two games ago, as they delivered an inspired comeback win against the Pistons. They were unable to follow that up with another victory but thats not surprising, given that they were up against the Cavs. This year's Thunder are beatable (on the road) though. In fact, the Kings already hammered them here (116-101) earlier this season. Including that result, OKC is just 9-11 on the road, getting outscored by an average margin of 107.3 to 102.6. (The Kings score more points than that here at home, while allowing less.) Both teams had yesterday off. The Thunder have a showdown vs. the Clippers on deck tomorrow though, followed by a date with Golden State, while the Kings have the next two days off. The Kings have been at their best off a big loss this season, going 8-3 ATS (7-4 SU) when off a double-digit loss. I like their chances of scoring the upset. |
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01-15-17 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 8* ANNIHIALTOR. The Panthers are still seeking their first conference win and the Bulldogs should provide the perfect opportunity. Its true that Drake has played better since Jeff Rutter (a former UNI assistant) took over as coach. However, they're far from being a strong team. All their "success" has come at home too, as the Bulldogs are 0-8 when playing away from home. They've lost their two 2017 road games by 39 combined points. The Panthers are 23-4 SU (17-5 ATS in lined games) their last 27 against sub-500 teams. They've dominated Drake for years and they won last year's two games by 49 combined points, including a 77-44 destruction here at NIU. Look for them to "get healthy" with another double-digit win this afternoon. |
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01-14-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
I’m playing on WASHINGTON. The 76ers earned a rare win last night. Don't expect it to happen again. The Wizards, who had the past two nights off, come in with a score to settle. Thats because the 76ers beat them earlier. Thats going to ensure that they don't overlook them and it should help in "keeping the pedal to the metal" the entire way. Note that the Wizards a profitable 14-7 ATS when playing with 'revenge.' Off a 117-108 loss at Boston on Wednesday, its also worth noting that the Wizards are 15-9 SU/ATS the last 24 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Prior to that loss, they'd covered three straight. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win. |
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01-14-17 | Spurs v. Suns +11.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* BEST BET. While the Spurs will likely have quite a few fans cheering for them, I believe that that the Suns already having played here gives them a considerable advantage. The Spurs had to travel here and adjust. The Suns have already got a game under their belts down here, a chance to adjust to the altitude and become familiar with the nets. I don't mind that they lost (I won with the Over) as it should add to their hunger here; they'd like to salvage a split out of the trip. Off a 40-point win, the Spurs, who had last year's trip here "smoked out," could easily get caught looking past the Suns, a team which they've already beaten them twice by double-diigits. That figures to prove costly, as no team has beaten the Suns by more than 11 yet in 2017. Given the situation, I feel the number is generously high and am grabbing the points. |
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01-14-17 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on VT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Irish have a strong team this season and are playing well. They're worthy of their top 25 ranking and already have some impressive road wins under their belt. That said, this is a very tough spot, as they'll be playing their second ACC tough road game in three days. That may not sound like much but its a situation that will only happen to three other teams in the ACC this season. In addition to ND, only Duke, UNC and Louisville will have to play two ACC road games with a day in between this reg. season. Don't expect the Hokies to show them any sympathy. VT was one of three teams to have to play two ACC road games in 3 days last season; the Hokies lost both games. The Hokies know this is a great opportunity. They're undefeated on this floor including a double-digit win over Duke. True, the Blue Devils were without Allen for that one. Stil, this is a VT team which plays with confidence on its home floor. Off a double-digit win against Syracuse here last time out, they've now won 15 straight here. The Hokies gave the Irish all they could handle at ND last year, losing by two as double-digit underdogs. With the schedule and venue now in their favor, I expect them to return the favor, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-13-17 | Pistons v. Jazz -10 | Top | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH 10* MAIN EVENT. I don't mean to keep picking on the Pistons, but this is another tough spot for them. The loss at Sacramento was of the "deflating" variety, as they coughed up a big second half lead against one of the weaker teams in the West. Last night, they got blown out by the best offensive team in the league. Now, playing the second of b2b games and their third game in four days, the Pistons have to take on the league's stingiest team. The Jazz allow just 94.9 points per game. Next best is San Antonio and the Spurs allow 97.9. At home, the Jazz allow a mere 93 points per game. Opposing teams shoot just 41.9% from the field here. By comparison, the Pistons allow 103.8 ppg on the road, allowing teams to hit 46.9% from the field. Last night's game was costly, in that Pope went down to injury. As of this writing, he's listed as questionable. He did fly to Utah with the team, where he'll have an MRI today. I'm guessing he doesn't play though, given that he looked to be in considerable pain. He gives them a ton of minutes and figures to be missed. Either way, the Pistons are going to have some trouble. The Pistons are just 2-5 SU/ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've been in that situation twice (vs. Indiana on 12/17 and at Charlotte on 12/7) since the start of December and lost by double-digits each time. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. |
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01-13-17 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 213 | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Atlanta UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. The Celtics are on an extended 'over' streak, while the Hawks have seen four straight games fall below the total. I expect it to be the Celtics' 'over' streak which comes to an end this evening. These teams last faced each other in the playoffs. The last three meetings of that series all finished with less than 200 combined points. Five of six games produced 203 or fewer combined points and all finished with 214 or less. Those games all had O/U lines in the high 190s or low 200s. While the Celtics, who will be without Bradley here, may have been a profitable 'over' team overall, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 when they've been listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points and 5-3 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or more. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 when playing at home with an O/U line of 210 or more. With the Hawks having held four straight (and six of seven) opponents to double-digits in scoring, I look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Warriors haven't covered for some time but I feel this will be a great spot for them to explode with a lopsided win. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game, backing the Kings on Tuesday. That one didn't look good at all, as the Pistons were up double-digits in the second half. In fact, they stretched the lead all the way to 18 at one point. However, the Kings made a run and the Pistons couldn't answer. As The Detroit News called it, that was a "devastating loss." The Pistons had won back-to-back games and a victory would have had them riding a 3-game winning streak and bringing some confidence into tonight's game. That didn't happen though and I expect Tuesday's second half meltdown to have a negative effect on them tonight. Though they haven't covered, the Warriors have still won their last two games by double-digits. While the Pistons are now 8-13 (SU and ATS) on the road, the Warriors are 17-3 here at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 14.4 points here. Note that they beat the Pistons by 14 here last season. The Warriors had yesterday off and they haven't had to play back-to-back games (two games in two days) since before Christmas. After tonight's game, they get a few days off. In other words, there's no reason to hold back or save themselves. The Warriors are 72-52-4 ATS when off a double-digit win the past 2+ seasons, 19-1 SU their last 20. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way here. |
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01-12-17 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 202 | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix and Dallas to finish OVER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. These teams recently faced each other at Dallas, the Suns scoring the minor upset. Tonight's rematch will be played in the higher altitude of Mexico City. Given the venue and the fact that neither team will be making the playoffs, I won't be surprised if this one has a bit of an exhibition feel to it. That often equates to some softer than normal defense. Note that three previous regular season games in Mexico City had combined scores of 211, 214 and 214. Admittedly, the Mavs aren't exactly a high-scoring team. They're going to have payback on their minds here though, having just been beaten by these same Suns. The Mavs know that very likely going to need to well into the hit triple-digits to beat them, as Phoenix averages 106 ppg. Regardless of venue, Suns' games have been high-scoring. Their games away from Phoenix are averaging a whopping 219.6 combined points. Off a 120-116 loss against the Cavs, note that the OVER is a lucrative 16-4 when Phoenix had scored 105 or more points in its previous game. I expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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01-12-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee -7 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIDDLE TENN. STATE 10* PERS FAV. This is a big game between the last two with undefeated records in C-USA. The Thundering Herd have had this one circled ever since the Blue Raiders knocked them out of the conference tournament last season. As you may recall, the Raiders would go on to the NCAA Tournament, where they'd knock off Michigan State, a stunning #15 vs. #2 seed upset. Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for though. Wanting to beat the Raiders and actually doing so are two different matters. While last year's tourney loss was at a neutral site, the Herd are 0-2 SU/ATS their last two visits here, losing by an average of 24 points. Middle Tennessee State outscored them by a combined 173-125 margin. Including those results, the Raiders are a dominating 72-13 here since the 2011-12 season. Sure, Marshall is expected to get Terrence Thompson back, after he missed a dozen games or so. He's likely to be eased in though. Marshall's coach Dan D'Antoni noted: "If we win, it's a big step up. If we lose, they're going to make us better." Given that the only road wins Marhall has are at FAU and FIU, I expect it to be the latter. Raiders with a statement win. |
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01-12-17 | Pacers v. Nuggets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-140 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana and Denver to finish UNDER the total. Admittedly, neither of these these teams could be described as "stingy." They each come in on extended 'over' streaks, which in turn have created an extremely high O/U line. That said, for an overseas game, on unfamiliar nets, I believe that it'll prove to be a little too high. Last year's game here (Orlando/Toronto) produced 209 combined points. The previous season, the Bucks and Knicks combined for just 174 here. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected, the UNDER improving to 15-7 the last 22 times that the Pacers had seen their previous three (or more) games finish above the total. |
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01-11-17 | LSU v. Texas A&M -10 | Top | 62-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The Tigers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Tigers' football team pounded the Aggies here a little less than two months ago, winning by 15 points. I expect the Aggies' basketball team to avenge that 11/24 loss in a big way Wednesday, winning by at least as big a margin. To say this is is a "must win" game for the Aggies, who are 0-3 in SEC play, is an understatement. Remember, this is a team which went to the Sweet 16 last season, its 13th appearance at the Big Dance. They're likely going to need 21 wins to get in there this season and there are only 16 games + the SEC Tournament remaining. Basically, if they don't win this game, they'd need to score an upset against either WVU or Kentucky. Needless to say, taking care of business here should be a much easier task. The Tigers are off a 17-point loss vs. Mississippi State last time out, their third loss in four games. Those three losses came by an average of greater than 19 points. While the Aggies have several losses, they've been close to winning some big games. They stayed within four points of both ranked USC and Arizona. When the Aggies have won, its mostly been by a comfortable margin; three of their last four victories have been by a minimum of 12 points. They're stepping down in class here, while the Tigers are stepping up in class. The Aggies were laying -7.5 when hosting the Tigers last January. They won by 14. That brought them to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host of the Tigers and 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. Badly in need of a big win, I'm expecting another double-digit margin. |
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01-11-17 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 95-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC 10* MAIN EVENT. The Thunder will have payback on their minds as the Grizzllies embarrassed them, at Memphis, less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies won that 12/29 game by 34 points. While the Thunder are below .500 on the road, they're 14-6 here at home. The loss at Memphis was the start of a stretch which saw the Thunder lose four of five. However, off back-to-back double-digit blowout wins, they're healthy now and have found their groove. They beat the Grizzlies by 18 here last January and by 16 the previous meeting. Revenge will be even sweeter, in front of the national TV audience. |
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01-11-17 | Rockets v. Wolves +4 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Rockets are obviously red hot, I feel that this will be a good spot to go against them. I backed the Wolves in their last game, a 9-point win on Monday and liked what I saw from them. Off that momentum-building win, unlike their guests, the Wolves had yesterday off. Meanwhile, Houston was busy beating Charlotte. Its true that the Rockets have fared quite well when playing the second of b2b games. However, this will also be their third game in four nights and their fifth game in the past seven days. I could see it finally catching up to them here. The Wolves already gave the Rockets all they could handle here a month ago, losing by just two points. Like now, the Rockets were rolling at the time and also coming off a win the previous night. Look for the Wolves to give them all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright win. |
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01-10-17 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -12 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* ANNIHILATOR. I successfully backed the Aztecs on Christmas Day, in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic tournament in Hawaii. That trip resulted in a bit of a hangover, as they came back and home and were upset by the Lobos on New Year's Day. Not all that shocking a loss, given the travel and holidays. Next, the Aztecs had to play back-to-back road games. They battled in each but ended up coming up short in both of them. Thats going to have them in a foul mood tonight; they'll be looking to take out their anger on somebody and the Spartans, which lost their last two road games by 25 and 19 points, should be the perfect team to do that against. Note that the Aztecs won by 32 points earlier this season, after losing three straight. Including that victory, they're 4-2-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the last seven times that they were off three consecutive pointspread defeats, 29-17-4 ATS their last 50. The Aztecs won last season's meetings by 15 and 22 points. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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01-10-17 | Pistons v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO 10* PERS FAV. Off three straight losses, knowing they've got three fairly difficult games (Cleveland, OKC, Indiana) on deck, followed by a tough road trip, one which will include a game against these same Pistons, the Kings are going to be very hungry to take care of business this evening. Note that they're 4-1 ATS off three consecutive losses and 7-3 ATS off a double-digit loss. While the Pistons are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the Kings are 2-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. With the Pistons also at 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range, I'm backing the home team. |
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01-09-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. Off four straight losses, the T-Wolves could really use a big win. Tonight should be the perfect spot to get one. While the T-Wolves admittedly haven't been great at home, they at least do outscore teams by a slight margin here. The Mavericks, on the other hand, get outscored by a 102.7 to 94.6 margin on the road, where they're just 4-15. While Dallas scores 94.6 ppg on the road, Minnesota scores 104.3 ppg here at home. In recent seasons, the Mavs have had their way with the T-Wolves. This year's Dallas team isn't as strong as past teams though while the talented young T-Wolves' players are slowly getting better. Knowing that they'll face the Mavs again at Dallas, in less than a week, the T-Wolves should be particularly anxious to "hold serve" at home and to finally get a win against a team which has had their number. Off a cover against the Jazz on Saturday, the T-Wolves are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they'd lost three or more (SU games) in a row. I expect them to improve on those stats here, the Mavs falling to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. |
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01-09-17 | Troy State v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE 10* PERS FAV. While they didn't cover, I really like the way that the Panthers won their last game. Down seven points late, in danger of losing three in a row, playing without freshman guard D'Marcus Simonds for the third consecutive game, and also with Jeremy Hollowell and Willie Clayton having both fouled out, the Panthers closed the game on an 8-0 run to win by a point. While they may again be without Simonds, currently questionable as of this writing, now the Panthers know that they can win without him. Thats the type of comeback victory that they can build positive momentum from. While the Panthers are off a momentum-building win, the Trojans are off back-to-back close (deflating) road losses. They haven't played a game on their home floor in ages, as their last six have all been on the road, or a neutral site. They finally play at home next game, but look for the road-weariness to hit them here. The home team won both meetings last season and homecourt means a lot to both teams again this year. Troy is 3-7 away from home, Georgia State is 5-1 at home. The Trojans score 72.5 on the road while the Panthers score 85.3 at home. I'm laying the small number. |
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01-08-17 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 187.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah and Memphis to finish UNDER the total. The Grizzlies are off a very high-scoring (OT) win at Golden State, which wrapped up a high-scoring road trip overall. Back home and facing the stingy Jazz, I expect things to return to "normal" this evening. The Grizzlies held the high-scoring Thunder to just 80 points in their last game here. Including that result, the UNDER is 14-6 in their 20 games here. That includes a 155-point game against these same Jazz, last month. Including that result, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that the Jazz played here, all five of those games producing 188 or fewer combined points. Off another low-scoring game yesterday, the UNDER is now 6-1 the last seven times that the Jazz took the floor. I'm expecting more of the same here. |
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01-08-17 | Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10 | Top | 80-66 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* BEST BET. These teams have battled each other for the top spot in the conference in recent seasons. Both lost some key personnel from last year's teams. Admittedly, the Shockers have adjusted much better than the Panthers, at least thus far. Despite losing their three top scorers from last season, the Shockers are undefeated in conference action and 13-3 overall. While the Panthers overall record is indeed pretty poor, keep in mind that they've faced the likes of UNC, Iowa and Xavier (twice). They've beaten teams like Oklahoma and Arizona State and no team has beaten them by more than four points on this floor. They're only allowing 57.4 ppg here. While the Shockers are off a couple of blowout wins, those both came at home and both against weaker teams. They won their last road game by eight. The last two meetings were both decided by five points or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than most will be expecting. |
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01-07-17 | UAB +6 v. Rice | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB 10* GAME OF WEEK. Admittedly, losing Nick Norton back in November was a blow. However, these Blazers are still a formidable team. A look at the Blazers' schedule shows that the've alternated wins and losses all season long. Every win has been followed by a loss. Every loss has been followed by a win. Much of that has been due to circumstance though, as the Blazers have had to play against team like Kansas and St. Mary's after a win, as well as at venues like Memphis, Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Rice can also be pretty tough to beat at home. However, I believe that the battle-tested Blazers will be up for the challenge. This is a team that still believes its the best in the conference. Having already lost at Middle Tennessee State on this trip, followed by a win at North Texas, the Blazers badly want to assert themselves - and to finally win two in a row - with a victory here. The Owls are just 4-7-1 ATS when laying points the past 2+ seasons and that includes an 0-1 ATS mark when listed as home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Blazers, who were 14-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team witha winning record through at least 15 games of the season, have had a chance to bounce back from their loss to the Blue Raiders, the Owls have not. UAB comes off a potentially momentum-building 2-point win while Rice comes off a potentially deflating 3-point loss. Note that the Owls, who lost that one by an 80-77 score, are just 6-10 ATS their last 16 lined games, after allowing 80 or more points. UAB has won five of the past six meetings, including a 12-point win last January. With both teams off very close games, I could see this one also coming down to the wife and am taking the points. |
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01-07-17 | Knicks v. Pacers -7 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. This is a tough spot for the Knicks. Last night, they gave everything they had in their game at Milwaukee. To their credit, they fought back, erased a huge second half deficit and won the game. However, they used a ton of energy to do so. Keep in mind that they've still lost six of seven. Now, off that extremely hard-fought battle and playing their sixth game in the past nine days, they'll take on a rested and rejuvenated Pacers team which is enjoying its best stretch of the season. Note that NY is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The Knicks lost those six games by 79 combined points, an average loss of more than 13 points. Five of the six losses came by a minimum of seven points. Finally starting to play up their potential, the Pacers have won four straight, covering all in all four of those. Three of those four games came here at Indiana and all three resulted in double-digit victories. While the Knicks beat them at MSG just before Christmas, the Pacers have dominated them here at Indiana in recent seasons. The most recent meeting here resulted in a 12-point Pacer win, last April. With the schedule firmy in their favor, I expect them revenge-minded Pacers to keep rolling for another day. |
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01-07-17 | DePaul v. Seton Hall -14 | Top | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL 8* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Pirates have been winning but not covering. They're 11-3 in the standings by 4-8 at the betting window. This should be a good spot to pick up a win in both those columns. A look at the first part of this season's schedule shows that the Pirates never had much of a chance to catch their breath in 2016. Since their opening game on 11/11, they didn't have a break of more than four nights until after their 12/17 win against Delaware. After getting five nights off, they responded with a win and cover vs. Rutgers. They came out of the Christmas Break (still only with four nights off) and lost at Creighton - no shame in that - before beating Marquette by three last time out, failing to cover (against the closing line) by half a point. While they may not have beaten the closing number, the Pirates figure to gain some positive momentum from the win over Marquette. Having not played since New Year's Day, they've finally got some proper time off. Note that with the Rutgers win, they're 6-1 ATS and 7-1 SU the last eight times that they played with five or six day's rest. While the Pirates bring some positive momentun, the Blue Demons are going the other way. They've lost four straight are winless on the road. While the Blue Demons are averaging 62 ppg on the road, the Pirates are outscoring teams by a 81.7 to 65.7 margin here at home. With three straight road games on deck, I expect them be all business here. |
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01-06-17 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 106-98 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are cathing the Clippers at the right time. Not only is Griffin out, but Paul is also expected to miss Friday's game. He's currently listed as doubtful. Even if he were to play, however, I like the Kings' chances tonight. The Kings looked fairly impressive in winning at Denver in their first 2017 game but couldn't follow it up with another victory, when playing the second of b2b games. They had yesterday off though and they're coming in looking to settle a score with an instate "rival" which has dominated them here in recent seasons. The Kings, 8-5 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, are 3-1 ATS against divisional opponents thus far while the Clippers are just 2-3 ATS. I'm backing the home team. |
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01-06-17 | Oakland v. Valparaiso -2.5 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on VALPARAISO 10* MAIN EVENT. This is a huge game in the Horizon. While I repect Oakland, I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. The Crusaders, 7-1 at home this season, were the regular season champs last season, winning 25 games. With a total in the mid-high 140s, note that the Crusaders are a highly profitable 40-22 ATS over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. During that stretch, on the other hand, the Golden Grizzlies are just 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. The women's Grizzlies absolutely destroyed the women's Crusaders team on New Year's Eve. Look for the men to exact some revenge here, showing that they're still the team to beat in the Horizon. At least, for now. |
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01-06-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Green Bay -9.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on GREEN BAY 10* HC GAME OF YEAR. If you're looking for an "exciting" Friday game in the Horizon, you'd probably be better served checking out Oakland/Valparaiso. (They're currently the top two teams in the conference and they'll be going head-to-head at 9 ET on ESPN2.) Thats because I expect this one to be pretty lopsided. While the Valparaiso/Oakland game might be stealing the spotlight, its the Phoenix who lead the Horizon League in scoring. They're averaging a whopping 80.8 ppg. They've won four in a row and have scored 90 or more in three of those. They're going to come in full of confidence and knowing that they'll be gaining a game against one of the top two teams in the conference, provided they take care of business tonight. While the Phoenix are averaging over 80 ppg and over 90 ppg on their home floor, the Panthers are averaging a paltry 65.3 overall and just 64 away from home. Given their offensive shortcomings, its not all that surprising to learn that the Panthers are an ugly 5-12 ATS (4-13 SU) their last 17 against teams which score more than 77 ppg. The Panthers are playing their third straight road game, the first time that they opened Horizon League play with three straight on the road since the 2000-2001 season. Now 1-7 on the road, they've only played four games in their own building. Competing hard but coming up short in the first two games figures to take a toll on them here. The Panthers could have easily beaten Youngstown State but ended up blowing it and losing 88-87, in OT. They gave up a game-tying 3-pointer with 0.2 seconds left in that one. Next, they fought back late at Cleveland State, only to come up short. Now losers of six straight, its going to be hard for them to have much confidence. While the Panthers tested them last season, the Phoeix have still dominated them in recent seasons. I expect them to put up a big number again tonight, and for the Panthers to be unable to keep up. |
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01-06-17 | Rockets v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO 10* BEST BET. While the Magic had last night off, the Rockets were involved in a hard-fought battle against the Thunder, a 118-116 thriller. Harden and Westbrook are battling for the MVP and the two battled each other pretty hard last night. Harden, one of four Rockets to play more than 30 minutes, was on the flloor for 38 minutes. While the Rockets have proven that they can win when playing their second game in two nights, not all b2b spots are equal and last night's game (an MVP showdown, which came down the wire, on National TV) was the type of game that it can be easy to have a bit of an emotional letdown from. Also, off that win and with Toronto on deck, they could easily look past lowly Orlando. Either way, I expect the rested Magic to be ready for them. The Magic played the Rockets tough in both games last season, covering in each of them. They lost by just five at Houston (as +9 point underdogs) and they won 104-101 in the game here at Orlando. Harden got his points (31) but the Magic limited his time spent on the free throw line and played a solid team game themselves. Including those results, Orlando is actually 16-8-1 ATS its last 25 against teams from the Southwest. Knowing that they hit the road for six games after this, the Magic should be highly motivated to take care of business at home before they go. Like last year, I expect them to give the Rockets all they can handle again here, with a great shot at another outright win. |
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01-05-17 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +15.5 | Top | 95-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Dons on Christmas Day. Playing in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic, they lost against San Diego State. That trip took a bit of a toll, as they have failed to cover in either game since. Still, they did play very well even to get to the finals of that tournament as they had to beat Utah in the opening round to do so. Not bad considering that the Utes haven't lost a game since (most recently crushing Colorado on 1/1) and that they've only lost two other games (at Xavier and vs. Butler) all season. After beating the Utes, the Dons beat a limited a half decent Illinois State squad to just 58 points. The Dons have only lost four times overall on the season and none of those losses came by more than 14 points. For last season's meeting here, Gonzaga was laying -13.5 points and won by just eight; three of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 or less. Including last year's non-cover here, Gonzaga is just 2-6 ATS the last eight times it was laying more than a dozen points on the road. While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that this line will again prove to be too high. |
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01-05-17 | Nets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* VIOLATOR. Off three straight impressive wins, the Pacers are finally starting to play up to their potential. That's going to spell trouble for a Nets team which has lost three straight and eight of nine. While the Nets last two losses have both come by double-digits, the Pacers' last two games here both results in double-digit wins. While the Nets won the game at Brooklyn, the Pacers won by 21 when the teams met here earlier. The Nets haven't gotten any better and the Pacers are stronger now than they were then. I'm expecting another double-digit win. |
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01-04-17 | Thunder v. Hornets -2 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Hornets in their last game. That was on the road though and it was against a revenge-minded Bulls team which I thought was going to be desperate for a win. The shoe's on the other foot this time though. This time, the Hornets are at home. This time, off b2b losses and knowing that they've got a 5-game road trip on deck after this, one which includes stops at San Antonio, Houston, Detroit and Boston, the Hornets know that they need to take care of business tonight, or they risk getting off to a potentially ugly start to 2017. While the Thunder get outscored by a 107.2 to 101.9 margin on the road, the Hornets outscore teams by a 104.3 to 101.4 margin here at home. They're a modest 3-2 ATS as home underdogs of three or fewer points this season, 13-10 ATS in that role, the past 2+ seasons. Those number sound a whole lot better when compared to OKC's 0-4 ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. In fact, thats been an ugly role for the Thunder, even prior to Durant's departure. They're just 3-15 SU/ATS their last 18 as road underdogs of three or less. The Hornets weren't able to beat the Thunder in recent seasons but I believe they're ready to take the next step and I look for them do so tonight, covering the small nubmer along the way. |
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01-04-17 | Auburn v. Vanderbilt -4.5 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Commodores have dominated the Tigers for ears. They won last season's games by 47 combined points. I expect them to continue that domination this evening. The Tigers suffered their third loss of the season last time out. To their credit, they've done a good job at bouncing back from the previous two. However, this latest loss was different. First of all, it came in conference play - they're just 8-19 SU off a conf. loss the past 2+ seasons. Worse, it came in a game where they held a 12-point second half lead, eventually losing by 12. The Tigers had been rolling before that second half meltdown, arguably riding as high as they had at any point since the last time (2003) they went to the NCAA Tournament. To lose in that manner, in the first game back from Christmas, figures to be a tough pill to swallow, going into the new year. Also, Vanderbilt is much better than either of the two teams (USC Upstate and Coastal Carolina) that Auburn previously bounced back from losses against. The Commodores followed up a cover at Dayton with a win/cover at LSU. Back home, where they've won three straight and five of six, I expect them to continue their positive momentum and their dominance in this series. |
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01-03-17 | Heat v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX 10* PERS FAV. The Suns aren't favored too often but I feel they could easily be laying a bigger number tonight. The Heat, who have lost five straight and eight of nine, are a mess right now. They've been dealing with major injury issuses all season but are also going to be without Whiteside tonight, a major blow. Winslow is also out. Dragic is questionabe while Waiters doubtful, Bosh and McRoberts remain out. Sure, the Suns played last night, a blowout loss at LA. However, they had the previous couple of days off. So, its not that gruelling a spot. Also, the last time they were in a back-to-back spot, they won outright vs. a very good Toronto team. Including that result, they're 9-5-1 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Look for homecourt and superior health to be the difference in this one, the Suns bouncing back with a win and cover. |
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01-03-17 | Kansas State v. Kansas -12.5 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Jayhawks a couple of weeks ago, in their 89-71 win over Davidson. Since that time, they won at UNLV and TCU but failed to cover at either venue. I felt that the Jayhawks, who are as loaded as ever, were going to be a little extra motivated for the Davidson game. Back home now, facing their instate "rival," and having allowed 80 or more points for just the second time this season, the Jayhawks should again look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Not only have the Jayhawks dominated the Wildcats for years, but they're also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more points, going a lucrative 49-24 ATS in that situation over the years. While the Wildcats have an impressive record, they have yet to face a team anything like the one they'll see here. Note that the Wildcats, who are off a win vs. Texas, are just 4-10 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference victory. Kansas was laying -12.5 points for the last meeting and won by a 22-point margin. I expect another one-sided result, the Jayhawks pulling away and improving to 13-7 ATS (19-1 SU) the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. |
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01-03-17 | Raptors v. Spurs UNDER 211 | Top | 82-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto and SA to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. The Spurs have seen four straight games finish above the total. However, I expect that to change this evening. Last season's two meetings had O/U lines of just 187.5 and 191.5, finishing with combined scores of just 191 and 197. Tonight, we're getting a lot more points to work with and I feel thats offering excellent value. Games here are averaging 201.2 points. The UNDER is 27-13 the last 40 times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or more. Overall, at any venue, the UNDER is 14-5 the last 19 times that the Spurs played a game with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Spurs, who were upset last game, have allowed 86, 101, 86, 87, 101, and 90 points, when coming off a loss this season. Four of those six games stayed below the total and only one of them finished above the 200 mark. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected, the UNDER moving to 12-5 the last 17 times that the Spurs were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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01-02-17 | Hornets v. Bulls +1 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. Recent results are providing us with excellent value on what should be a highly motivated Bulls team. The Bulls have thrived in home games hovering around the pick'em range. Over the past couple of seasons, they're 9-4 ATS (2-0 ATS this season) as a home underdog, or pick'em, of three points or less. During that stretch, they're also 12-6 ATS (3-1 this season) as home favorites of three or fewer points. Charlotte is 8-8 on the road, the Bulls are 10-7 at home. The Bulls know that they've got the Cavs next and that three of their next five are on the road, with the two home games both coming against quality (Toronto and OKC) teams. In other words, they need to stop the bleeding now. Added motivation provided by the fact that the Hornets beat them by double-digits at Charlotte, just over a week ago. New year = Payback time. |
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01-02-17 | Towson v. James Madison +4 | Top | 44-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on JAMES MADISON 10* BEST BET. The Tigers check in with the better record but the Dukes are the team which enters 2017 with some positive momentum. James Madison closed out 2016 with back-to-back victories, including a double-digit blowout of Drexel on New Year's Eve. This is a team which is finally starting to come together and they'll be highly motivated to keep the roll going here. The Tigers closed 2016 with a blowout loss. They're 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season, losing both games outright. That brings them to 7-13 ATS their last 20 when laying points. During that stretch, the Tigers are also just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. During that span, the Dukes are 11-7 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 2-1 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range.JMU won by 14 in last season's meeting here, while losing by two at Towson. I'm taking the points. |
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01-01-17 | Arizona State v. California -9 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL 10* PERS FAV. I believe that the Sun Devils are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After 27 straight wins here, the Bears have dropped back-to-back games. Don't expect it to happen a third time. Those last two losses both came against ranked teams and the Sun Devils represent a significant step down in class. ASU does have a couple of fairly impressive wins under its belt already, San Diego State earlier and Stanford last time out. The Sun Devils also already have six losses though. All six came by a minimum of eight points and five came by double-digits. While they do deserve some credit for the win at Stanford, they'll be playing the second of b2b road games here, a stretch which will see them play five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road, and it figures to catch up with them here. With road games at UCLA and USC on deck, the Bears know they can ill afford to take the Sun Devils lightly. They won't. Cal bounces back big. |
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01-01-17 | Arizona v. Stanford +5.5 | Top | 91-52 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD 10* BB. Going against the Cats cost me a couple of times in December but that won't stop me from doing so here, as I believe this is an excellent spot for Stanford. The fact that the Cardinal have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, combined with Arizona's recent run of success, has driven the line up a little higher than it could have been otherwise. The only previous time that the Cardinal failed to cover three straight, they got an extra generous line as an underdog against Seton Hall. They ended up winning outright by double-digits. The Cardinal, 34-10 their last 44 home games, have still only lost two games here this season and only one of those (St. Mary's) came by more than five points. Both teams had New Year's Eve off, after they each played 12/30. That scheduling situation figures to be a little more familar to the Cardinal. While Arizona is 0-1, when playing with one day or less of rest, Stanford is already 4-0 in that situation. The only time that Arizona did play with one day or less worth of rest resulted in an outright loss against Butler. The fact that the Cats have had time off in between all their other games has helped with their injury issues. I expect it to catch up to them tonight though as a motivated Stanford team steps up and earns at least a cover. |
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12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* GOM. Both these teams lost yesterday. Neither looked particularly sharp. Rondo got benched for the second half, which may well serve as a wake-up call. I like the fact that the Bulls played at 4pm ET yesterday, as opposed to the 8:00pm ET start that the Bucks had to deal with. They were already showering and getting ready to head home, before the Bucks even got started. Sleeping in their own beds should work to their advantage, with both teams in a three-games-in-four-days spot. While the Bulls are only 3-4 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are just 1-5 SU/ATS when doing so. The Bulls should have some added motivation, as the Bucks beat them twice in a row earlier this month. The last thing they want to do is lose three games in a single month against a division rival which is neck-and-neck with them in the Central. The Bulls are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as home favorites of three or fewer points, going 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) in that role the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and close out the year with a win and cover. |
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12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GOM. While the Wolfpack have been beating up on some weak teams, the Hurricanes have been winning but not covering. That's brought this afternoon's line down lower than it easily could have been. I believe thats providing us with very fair value here. Note that the Canes are 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 83.7 ppg, to go along with a 47.8% opponent's shooting percentage, when playing on the road. The Canes, on the other hand, are allowing just 57 ppg here at home, holding visiting teams to a 35.6% shooting percentage. The Wolfpack have been underdogs twice this season and they failed to cover either time. Though some of the games have been closer than expected, the Canes have still won by at least eight points in each of their victories. Expect homecourt to prove the difference. |
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12-30-16 | Arizona v. California -1 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL 10* ME. The home team won both meetings last season and I'm expecting homecourt to be the difference again tonight. Though banged-up, the Wildcats are off an impressive win over New Mexico. However, they're now on the road (just their second true road game) against a much stronger opponent. I expect their nagging bumps and bruises to finally catch up with them. Cal lost against Virginia last game. However, that was the Bears' first loss here in 27 games. They're still outscoring opponents by an average score of 73.9 to 58.2 on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with an important win. |
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12-30-16 | Pistons v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. I've successfully played on the Pistons a couple of times recently. I backed them when they were getting a lot of points against Golden State, catching the Warriors looking ahead to their Christmas Day game vs the Cavs. Then, I backed them against the Cavs, sans Lebron, after that game vs. the Warriors. However, those were both favorable spots. With the exception of those games, the Pistons have not been very good. They lost by 25 last time out and have now dropped six of seven overall. Every one of those losses came by at least six points. The Hawks, who have won two of three, are playing with revenge from a blowout loss at the beginning of the month. Payback time. |
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12-29-16 | Thunder v. Grizzlies -118 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS 10* PERS FAV. The Thunder are going to be a popular pick tonight. However, they haven't fared well in this role. They're 0-2 ATS as a road underdog (or pick) of three or fewer points this season and just 3-13 ATS their last 16 in that role. Look for the Grizzlies, who are 12-7 at home and who know that they'll face these same Thunder at OKC in early January, to bounce back and improve to 12-8 ATS their last 20 as home favorites of three or less. |
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12-29-16 | Evansville v. Illinois State -9 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE 10* GOW. This lone could easily be higher. Illinois State is undefeated at home, outscoring teams by a 77.8 to 65 margin here. On the other hand, Evansville is 1-4 away from home, getting outscored by an average of 72.2 to 64. While the Purple Aces have been rolling, this wins have come primarily at home and entirely against lesser compeition. They've lost all four games when getting points, going 1-3 against the number. The Redbirds have won four of five including a 9-point win over St. Joseph's, a team stronger than Evansville, in their last game on this flloor. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. |
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12-28-16 | Fresno State v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* PERS FAV. The Lobos enter conference play off a bad loss at Arizona. They've had some time to regroup though. Returning home, I expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight. Note that New Mexico is 16-2 SU the past 18 times that it played with seven or more day's rest in between games. While the Bulldogs are getting outscored away from home, the Lobos are undefeated on this floor outscoring visiting teams by an average margin of 78.8 to 63.8. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Lobos are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The visiting team won both games last season but the home team gets it done tonight. |
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12-28-16 | Nets v. Bulls -9.5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. The Bulls got back on track last game, earning a victory over the Pacers. That snapped a 3-game winless streak and put an end to an ugly run which had seen them go just 1-6 their previous seven and 3-9 their previous 12. Recent games have come against quality opponents. Stepping down in class to face the Nets, I expect the Bulls to build off the Pacers' win and for them to deliver a blowout. This game's got a high O/U line. Not surprising, given the fact that the Nets allow an obscene 117.7 ppg on the road. The high total is noteworthy as the Nets are an awful 1-24 SU and 9-14-2 ATS the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During the same stretch, the Bulls are a profitable 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing at home with an O/U line of 210 or more. The Bulls won this season's earlier meeting (at Brooklyn) by 30 points. They also won the last meeting here at Chicago (last season) by 16. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. |
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12-28-16 | Columbia v. Miami (Fla) -23.5 | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hurricanes are perfect on this floor and they outscore teams by a 78.2 to 55.3 margin here. They should win this one by an even wider margin than that. With conference play on deck, the Hurricanes are going to want to keep the pedal to the metal and build up confidence. Before recent wins over teams like George Washington and FAU, they'd faced the likes of Florida, Stanford and Iowa State. The 8-point win over GW was the only time in their past five games that the Canes hadnt won by double-digits. Columbia has yet to cover as an underdog yet this season and is just 7-12 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. Expect this one to "get ugly." |
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12-27-16 | Kent State v. Texas -13.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. In their final game before Big 12 play begins, the Longhorns are looking to build confidence and momentum. They're off a dominating 96-60 win over UAB, their best offensive game of the season. The Longhorns are looking to build off that impressive performance and prove that it wasn't a fluke. Kent State should provide them that opportunity. The Flashes are off b2b losses and are just 2-4 away from home. They have yet to see an opponent as talented as this one. Look for a double-digit win, the Longhorns improving to 22-8 ATS their last 30 lined games, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their preivous game. |
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12-27-16 | Cornell v. Syracuse -19.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on SYRACAUSE 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off an awful 93-60 loss to St. John's before the Christmas break, I expect the Orange to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. The Big Red have a first year coach (Brian Earl) and he's about to learn that while these teams have met regularly, this is no rivalry. Indeed, with last season's 21-point romp, the Orange have won 36 straight in the series. Cornell is only 3-8 and that includes a 30-point loss, at Houston. I won't be surprised by a similar margin here, the Orange regaining their confidence with a rout, while improving to 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the last eight times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. |
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12-26-16 | Cavs v. Pistons -6 | Top | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I won with the Pistons (10* PERS FAV) in their last game, as they covered against the Warriors. It was a great spot, as they were catching the Warriors off a comeback win the previous night and looking ahead to the Christmas Day matchup with the Cavs. This spot is arguably even better, as they catch the Cavs off yesterday's big win over the Warriors and wiith Lebron and Irving (potentially) out. Regardless of who plays for the Cavs, look for the revenge-minded Pistons to step up and improve to 4-0 SU/ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games. |
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12-25-16 | San Francisco v. San Diego State -5.5 | Top | 48-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU 10* PERS FAV. While both teams recorded impressive wins on Thursday and Friday to be here, I particularly like the path that the Aztecs took. After a dominant defensive performance in their tournament opener, a 66-51 beating of Southern Miss, the Aztecs stepped up in class a little to take on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane gave them a good challenge, for a while, as the game was tied with 11 minutes left. Thats when the Aztecs flexed their muscles and closed the game and went on a 21-4 run. After losing, Tulsa coach Haith had this to say about the Aztecs: "...San Diego State is a tough-minded team and very physical, and it's the type of team that you can't give any help. We weren't as tough as you need to be to win that type of game..." With wins over Utah and Illinois State to get here, the Dons have proven that they're to be taken seriously. They're just 3-12 SU (5-9 ATS) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points though. With SF allowing 69.1 ppg (41%) and SDSU allowing just 62.5 (38.8%) I'm laying the small number with what I believe will prove to be the superior team. |
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12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 210 | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota and OKC to finish UNDER the total 10* ME. There were five NBA games played last Christmas Day. All five had an O/U line of at least 200 points. Yet nine of the 10 teams scored 96 or fewer points and all five games stayed below the total. The Under was 2-2-1, 3-2, 3-2 and 3-2 the previous four Christmas Days. Thats a 16-8-1 UNDER mark the past five Christmas Days. While thats all ancient history, I do believe that the Minnesota/OKC total will prove to be too high. While they've been involved in a couple high-scoring road games of late, the Thunder have seen four of their five December home games stay below the total. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 209.5. The teams combined for 204. Including that result and another one where they combined for 195 points in the previous meeting, the UNDER is 5-0 (or 4-0-1 depending on number used for 03/13/15 game) the last five times that the T-Wolves played here. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected, the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that the Wolves were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. |
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12-23-16 | Warriors v. Pistons +7 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT 10* BB. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the Warriors received a tougher test than they were probably expecting at Brooklyn. While they ultimately did cover, thanks to a huge second half, the bad start forced them to have to fight hard the entire way. Green is expected to return, and he'll be fresh from not playing last night, but the rest of the team will be in a relatively tough back-to-back spot while also playing their third game in four nights. With a Christmas Day showdown vs. the Cavs on deck, given the success they've already had on the trip, it should be easy to look past the Pistons. The Pistons upset the Warriors here last season though, a 113-95 blowout when listed as 7-point underdogs, and I expect them to come ready to play. While the Warriors are 2-4 ATS in b2b spots this season, the Pistons are a healthy 24-10 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off an 'upset' loss. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised to see the Pistons bounce back with the outright win. |
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12-23-16 | Rutgers v. Seton Hall -11.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL 10*. The Pirates have destroyed Rutgers in recent Decembers. Last December, laying -5.5 points, they beat the Knights by a whopping 84-55 margin. The previous December was almost as bad, an 81-54 destruction, in a game where the Pirates were laying nine points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Pirates have beaten every opponnet on this floor by a minimum of 13 points. They're hitting 54% of their shots here, visiting teams connecting on less than 40% of theirs. Its true that the Knights are off to their best start in 40 years, with only one loss. However, thats largely because they've only played one decent team. Their best wins came against Depaul and Stony Brook. The only time they faced a 'good' team (Miami) they lost by double-digits. Indeed, thus far, the Knights' schedule ranks as the second weakest of all the 351 Div 1A teams. Seton Hall's Angel Delgado had this to say about the Knights and their hot start: "They could be No. 1 in the country, we're still going to beat them. I'm coming with the mindset that we're not losing this game. That's how I feel, that's how I'm always going to feel. They were disrespecting us last year with a lot of stuff, but we're always tough here at home.'' While the Knights are 1-3 ATS their last four as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, the Pirates are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Look for Delgado and co. to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. |
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12-22-16 | Celtics v. Pacers +1 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA 10* GOW. While I respect the Celtics, I believe that the Pacers are offering excellent value here. Off a loss at MSG and knowing that the Celtics already beat them here, I expect the Pacers to be extremely motivated tonight. This is a Pacers team which had hoped to close the gap with the Cavs this season. Instead, thus far, the Pacers have gone the other way. Instead, the Pacers find teams like Toronto, New York, Charlotte and these same Celtics all in between them and the champs. While only 500 overall, they're still a solid 11-4 at home, which is superior to Boston's 10-7 road record. While the Celtics, who were involved in a hard-fought OT game on Tuesday, have a big home game against OKC tomorrow, followed by a Christmas Day showdown with the Knicks, the Pacers don't play for another for days after this. Look for an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Pacers, as they'll be hungry to head into the break with a winning record, rather than a losing one. Indiana leaves it all on the floor and comes away with the important win. |
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12-22-16 | William & Mary v. Rhode Island -10 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND 10* PERS FAV. Having scored a combined 225 points their last two games, the Tribe bring some impressive offensive stats to the table. However, lets keep in mind that those games came against the likes of Milligan and Savannah State. Also, both came at home where the Tribe are undefeated. Winning on the road has been an entirely different matter. Indeed, William & Mary is 0-4 away from home, all four losses coming by double-digits. While the Tribe gets outscored by an ugly 87.2 to 68.7 margin on the road, the Rams are outscoring teams by a dominant 78 to 60.7 points here at home. In their final game before conference play starts, the Rams are looking to build positive momentum with an aggressive "attacking" game. Coach Dan Hurley commented: "In a perfect world right now, with Hassan out, we wouldn't mind seeing the three guards shoot 35 to 40 shots between them in a game .... everyone in attack mode every single game. That's what we want to see from those guys." While Hurley acknowledged his team was looking forward to conf. play, he added: "...you're also excited about the opportunity to end the nonconference the right way." I expect Hurley's Rams to do just that, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. |
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12-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -6 | Top | 98-86 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Pistons in their last game. They were on the road and facing a Bulls team which was going to be extra hungry due to the fact it was off a blowout loss and due to having lost three straight. The shoe's on the other foot here though. This time, the Pistons are at home and this time they're off a blowout loss, their third straight defeat. They catch the Grizzlies off a game (OT loss!) vs Boston less than 24 hours ago, playing their third game in four days and their sixth game in the past nine days. While the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS (0-10 SU) the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, the Pistons are 7-3-1 ATS (9-2 SU) the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the Pistons to bounce back and improve on those stats Wednesday. |
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12-21-16 | Oakland v. Michigan State -7.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* GOW. The Golden Grizzlies bring the better record to the table. However, I believe that they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both teams are off a loss against Northeastern. However, while MSU faced the Huskies on Sunday, the Golden Grizzlies did so last night. Off last night's hard-fought defeat, this will be their third game in the past four days. I wouldnt have minded if Oakland had won last night, but a very close loss works even better. Either way, the Spartans figure to have plenty of motivation. Comments like these, made Monday by Oakland's coach (Kampe), figure to throw gas on the fire: "We set this up, we knew it was coming, knew it was looming: three really good teams ... One could say that Northeastern's the best of the three teams we're going to play. I don't know if they’re better than Michigan State or not, but they sure were yesterday." The Spartans have never lost to the Golden Grizzlies. Last season, they spotted them a 50-37 halftime lead but stormed back to win by six. This season, with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to jump on them out of the gate, as they did in 2014. In that meeting, MSU was up 13 by the break and won by 26. Look for the Spartans to bounce back big, improving to 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. |
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12-20-16 | New Mexico +13 v. Arizona | Top | 46-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* BB. This is the renewal of a rivalry that goes back over the years. The teams will meet again at "The Pit" next season, the second half of the home-and-home series. While the Wildcats could easily get caught patting themselves on the back after beating Texas A&M and/or looking ahead to conference play, I expect the Lobos to be "sky high" for a chance to face a ranked opponent from the Pac-12. Note that the Lobos are 11-3 ATS over the years, as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15.5 range. While the Lobos have lost a few games, only one has been by more than 13 points. Off an 83-43 win, they come in with some confidence. The Wildcats are still a banged-up team, one which beat "Grand Canyon" by only 10 points its last time on this floor. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. |
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12-20-16 | Lakers v. Hornets -9 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE 10* PERS FAV. Off four straight losses, the Hornets finally got back on track last time out, a 107-99 win at Atlanta. Back home, I expect them to follow it up with a decisive win over the Lakers. Since the win at Atlanta, the Hornets have had two days off. That break probably came at the right time, as they hadn't had more than a day off in between games for some time. Its also worth mentioning that Charlotte has thrived when playing with exactly two day's rest in recent seasons and is alreayd 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so this season, winning by an average of 13 points. The Lakers eked out a cover last time out but still lost by 11. They're just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the month. Their last three losses have all been by double-digits. Charlotte was 2-0 SU/ATS against the Lakers last season, both victories coming by double-digits. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. |
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12-19-16 | Pistons v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 82-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. I lost with the Bulls in their last game. So, I know that they looked pretty bad. I'm fully willing to give them another shot tonight though. The Bulls recent 3-game skid has helped to keep this line lower than it normally might be. However, off back-to-back double-digit losses of their own, the Pistons haven't exactly looked great of late either. Also, note that the Bulls are already 2-0 SU/ATS off three straight losses this season, blowing out Orlando by more than 30 points and beating San Antonio outright. Going back further finds them at 11-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off of three or more consecutive losses. With an O/U line currently at 195.5, as of this writing, note that the Pistons are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range while the Bulls are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing at home with a total in the same range. The Bulls, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Detroit, are also 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I like them to bounce back big tonight. |
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12-19-16 | Furman v. Tennessee Tech +3 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH 10* BEST BET. I'm happy to grab the points here as I believe that the Golden Eagles have an excellent shot at the outright victory. Sure, the Golden Eagles have lost three straight. However, the first two of those came at Michigan State and at Tennessee and the most recent came by only two points. The loss against Lipscomb last game wasn't what they were hoping for. However, in fairness, they'd just really fought hard against the Spartans and Vols, losing by six and 12 points, easily covering in both. Including those results, they're 7-2 ATS their last nine December lined games. The Paladins' 6-5 record is a little deceiving, as UAB is the only good team which they've beaten. While that win was certainly impressive, it came early in the season and it required a 62% effort from beyond the 3-point line, something they haven't come close to matching since. Last time out, they shot 28% from beyond the arc, losing at home against lowly South Carolina State. Not too impressive considering that South Carolina State, hailing from the Mid-Eastern Conference, is still only 3-8 and has still been outscored by a 83.9 to 64.2 average score. While the Paladins are 1-3 ATS the last four times (and 4-10-1 ATS the last 15) that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, during the same the Golden Eagles are 3-1 ATS (and SU) in four tries as home underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Paladins averaging 69.8 ppg on the road and the Golden Eagles averaging 82.8 on this floor, I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. |
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12-18-16 | Nets v. 76ers -2 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADEDELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. As victories are hard to come by for each of these teams, they've probably both had this one circled. With the Nets having recently beaten the Lakers by double-digits and the 76ers off a double-digit loss to those same Lakers, many might want to back Brooklyn here. Not me. Playing at home, I expect the 76'ers to have the advantage. The home team won all four meetings last season. The Nets won 100-91 and 131-114 in the games at Brooklyn. However, the 76ers won 103-98 and 95-89 in the games here at Philly. This season, the Nets have just one win on the road while have tasted victory four times here at home. The 76ers are already 7-2 ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. With a rare chance for a victory, I expect them to "rise to the occasion" and come with the win and cover. |
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12-18-16 | Gonzaga v. Tennessee +10 | Top | 86-76 | Push | 0 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE 10* ME. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are tough every season and thats the case again this year. That doesn't mean that we can't successfully pick spots to go against them though. Some will recall that I played on Iowa State when the Cyclones covered against Gonzaga. I thought the Bulldogs would receive a tough test that day and I look for them to get more than they bargained for again this afternoon. While this is technically a neutral court game, its being played at Nasvhille. So, although Nasvhille and Knoxville are still a fair distance apart, the venue certainly favors the Vols. Thats noteworthy as Gonzaga has yet to play in many "hostile environments," like its going to encounter here. In fact, the Bulldogs have yet to play a "true road game" this season and most of their neutral site games, besides Florida which they faced in Orlando, have actually been pretty "neutral." Note that Gonzaga won that Florida game by just five points. Including that result, three of its four neutral site games were decided by seven or fewer points. Looking at it another way, when playing away from home, Gonzaga has only beaten one team by more than seven points all season. And that was Quinnipiac. Speaking of close games, the Vols have already lost by eight against Wisconsin, lost by four against Oregon and lost by two against UNC. That UNC loss was their only setback in the last six games and no team has beatem by more than eight since the first game of the season. The Vols have been money in the underdog role over the years and again so far this season. I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-17-16 | Davidson v. Kansas -15 | Top | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS 10* ANNIHILATOR. Remember when Curry almost led Davidson to an upset of Kansas in the NCAA Tournament? How about when the Wildcats actually upset the Jayhawks here at the Sprint Center? Well, those games were a long time (2008 and 2011) ago now. Curry is long gone and Davidson isn't the same team. Kansas hasn't forgotten though and I expect some payback to be in order. While the Jayhawks will head West after this, this game will be their ninth in a row played at either the Sprint Center or Allen Fieldhouse. On the other hand, the Wildcats have yet to play a home game this month. Its starting to catch up with them too, as they've lost their last two by a combined 24 points. The Jayhawks are outscoring teams by a 93.8 to 65.2 margin their past five games. Self will make sure his team remembers what happened last time; I expect him to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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12-16-16 | South Dakota v. Portland -3.5 | Top | 82-85 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I like how this one sets up for the "home" team. (*Game is being played at the Moda Center in Portland.) The Pilots got a wake-up call last time out, as Texas Rio Grande took them to double-OT. I like the fact that they were able to 'survive' and eke out the win and feel that the close victory will serve them well here. While their last scheduled game (Boise State) got postponed due to a snowstorm, note that the only three teams that have beaten the Pilots this season are Colorado, UCLA and Dayton. True, the Coyotes are off b2b wins. However, both those games came at home and they came against the likes of Sacramento State and Montana State. They're 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played away from South Dakota and the lone "cover" was a 12-point loss, as a 13-point underdog. Look for the close win their last time on the floor and the 'big game experience' gained from playing in the Wooden Legacy Tournament to serve the Pilots well, as they take down the Coyotes, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-16-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -5 | Top | 95-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. As your probably saw, these teams faced each other last night, at Milwaukee. The Bucks led big almost the entire way and finished with a 108-97 victory. Back on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Bulls to avenge that loss in a big way tonight. The Bulls, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as a host in this series, beat the Bucks by 10 and 11 points here last season. The Bulls are 7-4 at home this season, outscoring teams by a 104.5 to 99.5 margin here. The Bucks are 3-6 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 102.3 to 96.4 margin. While the Bulls have won a couple times already this season, when playing the second of b2b games, the Bucks are 0-4 SU/ATS in that situation. Payback time. |
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12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors -14 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Warriors enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS skid. A date with the Knicks should help. While the Knicks are clearly an improved team this season, they're still not exactly consistent. Last time out, they lost at Phoenix. The Suns entered that game with a 7-17 record and a 3-7 mark at home. Now, they'll face a Warriors team which is leading the league and which is outscoring teams by more than 14 ppg here. Note that the recent ATS losses were on the road. The Warriors won their last two games here by 36 and 29 points, respectively. Speaking of "blowout" wins, the Warriors beat the Knicks by 21 points at MSG last season and by a whopping 36 here at Golden State. I don't feel the Knicks, who average 104.5 ppg on the road, are quite ready to keep up and am expecting the Warriors, who average 123.9 here at home, to ultimately pull away for another decisive win. |
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12-15-16 | UCF v. George Washington +1 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Playing at home and favored by 10 points, the Knights did not look good last game. They'd connect on less than 40% of their shots and finish with less than 50 points, an ugly 58-49 loss to Pennsylvania. Not very good when considering that the Quakers had lost four of their previous five and were off a 79-60 blowout loss against George Mason. Of course, it didn't help matters that they played without their starting point guard and leading scorer, B.J. Taylor. Now, the Knights, still sans Taylor, take to the road to face a George Washington team which is off a 79-60 blowout win, a team which hammered them last season (67-50 at UCF) and which has won four of its last five. Yikes. While the Colonials continue to play without Watanabe, they're playing well without him. They're sharing the ball well (20 assists last game) and playing good team basketball. While the blowout of Howard was to be expected, their recent win at Temple was impressive. They'll be coming in full of confidence and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. |