Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | Top | 110-134 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Obviously, I respect the Raptors. They've got talent, playoff experience and they're very well coached. That said, this is a lot of points and the Nets have been playing very hard. They've covered four straight and six of seven. The last two meetings between these teams saw Brooklyn win by 10 points and Toronto win by only one. While the Nets have thrived in the underdog role, the Raptors are just 3-8-1 ATS the past 12 times that they played with two days rest in between games. Grab the points and don't be surprised when the Nets give the champs a tougher game than most will be expecting. |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 233.5 | Top | 122-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/Portland UNDER the total. With Lillard putting up big numbers every game and with numerous other weapons, everyone knows that Portland can score. Still, this is an extremely high O/U number for what is essentially a playoff game. Though they're not the type of defensive team that they were a few years back, the Grizzlies know that they aren't likely to win a shootout or trackmeet with the Blazers. Rather, they're going to have to contest every shot, to give themselves a chance. Yes, the Blazers are off five straight 'overs.' However, the Grizzlies have seen four straight games stay below the total. We're working with a much higher O/U number than we were for the 7/31 game and I'm expecting a much lower final score. |
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08-14-20 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 218 | Top | 92-109 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indiana/Miami OVER the total. These teams just faced each other. They'll face each other again in the playoffs. There's the bad blood between Butler and Warren. There's the #4 and #5 seed on the line. You'd think this would be a big game, right? Its not. Most of the starters won't play and the 4 vs. 5 spot is meaningless. As Pacers coach Nat McMillan noted: "It's just a different situation. It's no home court in the sense of you having your fan base, sleeping in your bed, there's none of that." For me, I say that leads to very little defensive intensity. The backups/reserves can and will still score and will be happy to make the most of their opportunity. Its the lowest O/U line on the board but I expect a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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08-13-20 | Bucks v. Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While the bubble experience has NOT been a good one for the Grizzlies, they still control their own destiny. All they need to do is win this game and they're into the 8/9 play-in-series. If they lose, the Grizzlies would need plenty of help as they'd also require the Suns and Spurs to lose. Needless to say, they don't want to rely on that. As Coach Jenkins said: “I told the guys we’ve got one game left, we’ve got to try to find a way to play our best game at this point. We’ve got to lay it on the line. Whatever’s been in the past is in the past.” The Bucks have already secured top spot in the East. I say Memphis "finds a way." |
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08-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Denver UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that the previous meetings had an O/U line of 220. We've got considerably more room to work with here. While both teams are likely to rest some starters, this is also a potential playoff matchup. Therefore, I do expect a little more defensive intensity than we might normally expect in a situation like this. Expect the UNDER to improve to 15-9 when the Clippers had allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. |
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08-11-20 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 231 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/Sac OVER the total. True, the Pelicans will be without their top three scorers. True, the Kings will be without Fox and Holmes. That doesn't mean that we won't see plenty of points though. Indeed, with both these teams eliminated from the playoffs, there should be very little defensive intensity. I played on the 'over' when these teams met on 8/6 and they combined for 265 points, the only one of the Pelicans' games which finished above the number thus far. Here's an excerpt of what I said at the time: "We should see plenty of points in this one. The last three meetings had 232, 262 and 239 points. The Pelicans allow 116.8 ppg and the Kings have seen the OVER go 16-8-1 the last 25 times that they faced a team which allowed 106 or more points per game. Yes, the Kings last game was a little lower-scoring. However, in their first two games here, they allowed 129 and 132 points, respectively ... " Expect more offensive fireworks in this one. |
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08-10-20 | Thunder +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. The Suns have obviously been great in the bubble. However, lets not forget that the Thunder still boast the superior record. The Thunder still won both previous meetings this season. While the Suns are 12-17 ATS as favorites, the Thunder are 24-12 ATS as underdogs. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 47-26 ATS, when getting points, the past few seasons. The Thunder did play yesterday but it was a relatively easy win, as they were up big by halftime. Meanwhile, while OKC gets tomorrow off, the Suns will have a showdown against the 76ers. The Thunder are 16-8-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or above. Grab the points and expect AT LEAST another cover Monday afternoon. |
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08-09-20 | Nets +14.5 v. Clippers | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Clippers sat their top weapons down the stretch against the Blazers yesterday, seemingly not interested in winning - or perhaps even trying to give Portland the 8th spot, as that hurts the Lakers more. Yet, they won anyway. With games against Western Conf. opponents (Denver and OKC) on deck, I don't see them being highly motivated to win this one in a blowout. Yes, the Nets have now clinched a spot and will be a little short-handed themselves. However, unlike the Clippers, they had yesterday off. They can take a page out of LA's book about how to keep fighting with the backups in, too. With the Clips at 3-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b days, I say this one proves closer than most will be expecting. |
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08-07-20 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 92-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Memphis UNDER the total. Desperate for a victory and now bitten by the injury bug, I expect an elevated effort on the defensive side of the ball from the Grizzlies this afternoon. The Thunder, who will be without Schroeder, have seen the UNDER go 18-5 when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. The Thunder, who scored an upset over LA Wednesday, have also seen the UNDER go 10-4 when off a SU win as an underdog. Note that they allowed a mere 86 points in that game; the second time in three games that they've allowed less than 95. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 224.5 and finished with 207. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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08-07-20 | Jazz v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/SA UNDER the total. The Jazz will be short-handed for this one as Mitchell and others (Conley, Gobert, O'neal) will not be playing. Remember, they were already without Bogdanovich, their second leading scorer. After getting lit up for 132 in b2b games, I expect the Spurs to use the opportunity of facing a depleted lineup to try and clean up their defense. The last meeting finished at 217. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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08-06-20 | Pacers -2.5 v. Suns | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Suns have gotten off to a great start here. I believe it comes to an end here though and that the Pacers, who have also gotten off to a great start of their own, are favored for good reason. In fact, that great start for the Suns has worked in our favor, keeping this line a little lower than it could easily have been. Remember, the Pacers are 42-26 while the Suns are 29-39. The Suns allow 113.9 ppg while the Pacers allow just 107.5. Speaking of those records, the Suns are still 10-20 SU their last 30 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 31-9 SU (24-14-2 ATS) their last 40 against sub-500 teams. The Pacers won by 25, at Phoenix, in this season's earlier meeting, holding the Suns to a mere 87 points. I expect another win and cover this afternoon. |
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08-05-20 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 231.5 | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total. With no Beal, the Wizards are going to have some trouble scoring against a stingy 76ers team, one which will be looking to improve defensively. Note that Washington has managed just 100, 110 and 112 points through its first three games. The 76ers are likely going to put up a big number, as they've got something to play for and have a lot of advantages. Still, I see them slowing down the pace a little and flexing their defensive muscles. That said, this O/U number is generously high. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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08-03-20 | Spurs v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Spurs are off a hard-fought win, a game which came down to the wire, against the Grizzlies. While the Spurs have been solid this season, when playing the second of b2b games, this is a unique situation, being that they're still recently back to play. Remember, this will also be the Spurs' third game in four days. That said, I expect yesterday's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers, 6-4 SU/ATS when off a loss, allow 107.7 ppg compared the Spurs' 114.9 ppg allowed. I believe that superior defense combined with the scheduling advantage, will ultimately prove the difference. Lay the points. |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This is a huge game for both teams. The Spurs won their first game back while the Grizzlies dropped theirs, in OT. Memphis is still in the driver's seat though and knows it just needs to take care of its own business. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies, despite the loss. Coach Taylor Jenkins agreed, noting: "I thought our guys executed beautifully on the offensive end. The message (for) our guys is to keep our heads up — we’ve got to learn from this and get better for the next game on Sunday...." The reality is, in my opinion, that the Spurs will not be going to playoffs this season. Expect the Grizzlies, who have taken two of three meetings, to take care of business once again, covering the small number along the way. |
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08-01-20 | Pelicans v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 103-126 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/LA to finish OVER the total. While is O/U line may initially appear to be high, it could easily be even higher. I won with the 'under' in both games (LAL/LAC and Utah/NO) which these teams were involved in on Thursday. Really, I was fortunate to avoid OT as both games had a real chance of going to extra time. Now, with each team having a game under its belt, I'm expect a higher-scoring affair. While Clipper games average "only" 225.6 points, New Orleans games average a whopping 232.8 points. When these teams met in January, the O/U line was 240.5. By halftime, they already had 152 points. By the end of the game, they'd produced a combined 263. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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07-31-20 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 597 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. While the Bucks may be the favorite for this game and to win the East, I believe the Celtics should have an advantage in this one. The Bucks closed their practice facility due to corona virus. As of this writing, they are not expected to reopen prior to leaving for Orlando. The Bucks are also scheduled to arrive in Orlando a day later than Boston, as the Celtics are among the first batch of teams scheduled for travel. Once in Orlando, all players will have to remain in their hotel rooms until they test negative on consec. days, 24 hours apart. So, the Celtics should have had more practice time prior to traveling to Orlando and they'll also get out of their rooms first. The Celtics won the first meeting, way back in October and the Bucks won by only five, in January. The Celtics are very well-coached and I look for them to take this entire experience seriously. Center Daniel Theis had this to say: "I know that our team, our players are going to follow the rules ..." I expect a focused Boston team and I'm grabbing the points. |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 224.5 | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/NO UNDER the total. This season's previous meetings were high-scoring. The world has changed though and this game will be entirely different. The neutral court doesn't figure to help either offense. While some may see it otherwise, I'm expecting plenty of defensive intensity right from the opening tip. Some offensive rust won't surprise either. Utah games averaged 218.9 points; I see this one finishing below the 220 mark and therefore feel that the number is generously high. |
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03-11-20 | Washington State v. Colorado -8 | Top | 82-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes won this season's previous meeting by 22 points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Cougars know they're outclassed in this one. With six losses in their past seven, they don't have much confidence. Having already played their last three on the road and understandably concerned about the coronavirus back home in Washington, its going to be tough to get the Cougars to play up to Colorado's level. Their last two losses came by a combined 30 points. Note that the Cougars are just 7-17 SU/ATS the past 24 times that they were off b2b conference losses. The Buffaloes come in on a losing streak of their own. Unlike the Cougars, they still believe that they can make some noise in this tournament. They've got a clear talent edge in this one and I expect them to demonstrate it. |
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03-11-20 | Texas-San Antonio +1.5 v. UAB | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. The Blazers have the better record and the higher seed. However, I believe that the Roadrunners are the more talented team and I expect them to prove it now that it really matters. UTSA is led by a pair of excellent guards. Jhivvan Jackson leads the conference – and ranks second in the entire country – with 27.2 points per game. He also supplies 5.8 rebounds per game. That ranks second best in the nation among players six-feet and under. He has scored 20 or more points in 27 of 31 games. He scored 30 or more a dozen times, including a pair of 40+ point explosions. While Jackson received first team All Conference honors for the second straight season, his teammate Keaton Wallace earned second team honors. Wallace averaged 18.5 ppg after putting up 20.2 ppg the previous season. Wallace plays a lot of minutes, gets to the line and hits from downtown. In other words, the Roadrunners backcourt is in great shape. I expect that elite backcourt to make the difference in this one. UTSA is 3-0 SU/ATS its past three, when coming in off b2b conference losses. UAB, on the other hand, is 0-5 SU/ATS, its past five, when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. Roadrunners get it done! |
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03-11-20 | Knicks v. Hawks -4.5 | Top | 136-131 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks were on the right side of a double-OT game here against Charlotte on Monday. Those are the type of wins which a team can build positive momentum from. A visit from the road-weary Knicks, who were involved in a track meet at Washington yesterday, figures to be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to do just that. Note that the last time that the Knicks played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine. Including that result, the Knicks are an ugly 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The lone 'push' was a 5-point loss, here at Atlanta. That was also the lone 'push' in the Hawks 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) record as home favorites. Schedule in their favor, expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. |
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03-11-20 | Utah v. Oregon State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Oregon State UNDER the total. Prior to his team's regular season finale against Colorado, Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak implored his team to play with more defensive intensity. Krystkowiak noted: "It's just a matter of consistency. It can't be a sometimes thing, it has to be an all-the-time thing. We can't decide to not run back. Sprint back on defense like that's the most-important possession in the game. We have to get a stop and we'll have three guys jogging back on defense." He went on to say: "...This is the mental time of year and we're going to have to look a lot more down the stretch like defense is important to us..." Utah would go on to hold Colorado to 72 points, despite the game going to OT. Speaking of good defense, the Utes played in this stadium, here in Vegas, back in December and they held then #6 Kentucky to just 66 points. (The UNDER is 6-1 last seven times that they were neutral court underdogs.) As for the Beavers, they displayed even better defense last time they faced the Utes, as they held Utah to a mere 51 points, just 19 in the first half. Also, the Beavers allowed just 56 in their regular season finale. With the UNDER at 9-2 the last 11 times that OSU was a neutral court favorite, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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03-10-20 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 215 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Indiana UNDER the total. The Celtics' last two games, both of them close losses, had combined scores of 193 and 209. Four of their last six games have now fallen below the total. Note that the UNDER is 3-1 the past couple of seasons when the Celtics were off back-to-back losses of six or fewer points. The Pacers put up 122 points in winning this season's lone meeting, back in December. That's noteworthy as the UNDER is 10-5 the past 15 times that Boston attempted to avenge a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points. Boston had hoped to get Brown and his 20.4 ppg back tonight but he's still out. The Pacers have been quietly playing pretty stingy defense. A look at their past seven games shows that they allowed 111 points or less in six games, an average of just 101 in those six. The only game, of those seven, where they allowed more than 111 was at Milwaukee, in a game where the Bucks were playing with revenge. Off their win at Dallas, note that the UNDER is a lucrative 20-6 the past 26 times that the Pacers were off an upset win as a road underdog. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-09-20 | Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 225 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Utah UNDER the total. The Raptors finished 'over' the total for the fourth straight time last night. However, I expect that streak to come to an end this evening. A closer look reveals that last night's game was actually relatively low-scoring, or at least on pace to go 'under,' until an extremely high-scoring (79 points) fourth quarter. Tonight, however, the Raptors are facing a fairly stingy Utah team which allows just 106.7 ppg at home. The last time that the champs played two road games in two days, the second of those games finished with just 197 points, despite having an O/U line of 222.5. The Raptors have seen the UNDER go 21-8 the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 105 or more points in four or more consecutive games. When having allowed 110 or more in four straight, as they have currently done, the UNDER is 6-1 during that stretch. Meanwhile, the Jazz have seen the UNDER go 37-27-2, during that span, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-09-20 | Hornets v. Hawks -4 | Top | 138-143 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses, the last two coming on the road, a home date with the Hornets is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks. The Hawks haven't been favored all that often here this season but they've made the most of those opportunities, when they have come up. In fact, prior to a loss here a week ago as a small home favorite against Memphis, the Hawks had been 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS when listed as a home favorite. Its also worth noting that the Hawks are 4-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in their previous three or more games. The Hornets have quietly covered six in a row. They're just 7-13 ATS over the years after having covered their previous five or more, 2-4 ATS after having covered their previous six. The Hawks, who won by 15 in this season's previous meeting, are 5-1 ATS when having trailed their previous game by 20 or more at halftime. Going back further finds them at 10-4 ATS their last 14 in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Monday evening. |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6.5 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. Its early in the conference tournament schedule but we've already seen some upsets. Don't expect to see another here. The Raiders are the #1 seed for good reason. Wright State outscores teams by a 81.4 to 70.7 margin, by far the best in the Horizon. The Flames, on the other hand, get outscored by an average of 69.1 to 69. Their 69 points per game ranks as the third worst number in the Horizon. The Raiders probably overlooked the Flames the first time these teams met and it led to Illinois- Chicago scoring the upset. The rematch was an entirely different story though as a superior Wright State team won 75-58. Including that victory, the Raiders have won 47 of 60 conference games. The Raiders, 5-1 ATS in the Horizon Tournament the past two seasons, will know not to overlook the Flames this time. Expect them to pull away for another double-digit win. |
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03-08-20 | Spurs v. Cavs OVER 224.5 | Top | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/Clev. OVER the total. The Cavs deserve some credit for upsetting the Nuggets yesterday. Now, playing their second game in two days, they're in one of their most profitable "over" spots. Indeed, the OVER is 9-2 when the Cavs played the second of b2b games. As for the Spurs, they've seen the OVER go a profitable 21-10-1 on the road this season. They've also seen the OVER go 17-8-1 against teams from the Eastern Conference. The most recent meeting when the Cavs visited San Antonio in December. That one finished above the total with 226 points. With the OVER now 20-7 when the Spurs face a losing team, this one figures to be even higher-scoring than that. |
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03-08-20 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 148 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Illinois OVER the total. The Big Ten typically is known as a defensive conference. So, many will see a number in the high 140s and be tempted to go with the 'under.' Don't give in to those temptations. The reality is that these teams can both score. Illinois averages 77.6 ppg at home and will be going against an Iowa defense that gives up exactly that many (77.6) points per game on the road. The Hawkeyes are quietly the highest scoring team (77.8 ppg!) in the conference though, as they can put up points whereever they play. After seeing its last game against Purdue finish above the total, the Hawkeyes have seen the OVER go 6-3 in March the past 2+ seasons. Expect both teams to put up a big number, as those stats improve this evening. |
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03-07-20 | Stanford v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. The Cardinal are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Playing perhaps their best basketball of the season, the Ducks come in on a roll. This was an Oregon team which was loaded with talent but also one which had a lot of roster turnover from last season and which needed some time to learn to work together. The well-coached Ducks have had that time and are now peaking at the right time. After a loss at Stanford on Feb. 1, the Ducks lost at Oregon State. However, since that time, they've won five of six, including three straight. The Ducks followed up a 1-point win against Arizona by avenging the loss against the rival Beavers with a 15-point blowout. Next, they destroyed Cal by 34. Now, on Senior Day, they will have payback on their minds from the loss at Stanford. They catch the Cardinal off a close 3-point loss at Oregon State. When these teams played here last season, the Ducks were favored by six. They won by 23. This season, Stanford averages less than 70 ppg on the road while Oregon averages more than 80 at home. Not only did the Ducks score 90 last game, they allowed just 56. They're 22-8 ATS their last 30, after allowing 60 or fewer points. Expect another double-digit win. |
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03-07-20 | Rockets -7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 99-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. After getting embarrassed by the Clippers last game, the Rockets will be looking to take out their frustration on someone. Facing a team which they have dominated, I expect them to do exactly that. A look at the recent meetings between these teams reveals that the Rockets have won the last seven. Five of the last six victories, including each of the past two, have come by double-digits. Off b2b very close losses, the Hornets, 9-20 at home, are vulnerable to getting blown out here, in my opinion. Those close losses can take a toll. (The Hornets are 1-6 SU off a loss of three or less.) The Rockets are 13-5 SU the past 18 times that they were off a loss of 15 or more points, including 3-1 SU/ATS the past four. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they were off a game where they trailed by 15 or more at halftime. Expect them to be all business from the opening tip in this one. |
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03-06-20 | Missouri State -1.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 78-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE. The Sycamores are the higher seed but now that it really matters, I believe that the Bears will prove to be the better team. The Bears are peaking at the right time, playing their best basketball of the season. When these teams met on 2/1, the Bears were mired in a slump. Indiana State won. Since that time, however, the Bears have gone 5-3 including a win against these same Sycamores. Last time out, they hammered Southern Illinois by a score of 84-59. Its no coincidence that this Missouri State team got better with the addition of senior (walk-on) Ross Owens. As Owens noted: "We're playing better. We're winning. Everybody on the team is working for the same goal, and that's winning." Bears get it done. |
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03-06-20 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 127 | Top | 75-54 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on NIU/Ball State UNDER the total. While this O/U line may appear low, it could easily be lower. The UNDER has been money for both these teams all season. The Huskies have seen the UNDER go 19-8 overall including 4-1 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. The UNDER is 9-1 in their road games. Not to be outdone, the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 20-9 overall, 9-4 at home and 2-0 as home favorites of three or less. The last two meetings have finished with 122 and 121 points. The Huskies allowed just 50 last time out. Off that dominant defensive victory over Toledo, look for the UNDER to move to 9-2 when they were off a MAC win. |
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03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards -3 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I really like how this one sets up for the Wizards. They're off a blowout loss at Portland to close out a 1-3 trip out West. Now, however, they're back home for what is expected to be a track meet with the Hawks. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 246.5. That suits the Wizards just fine; they're 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 230 or greater. While the Wizards have tomorrow off, the Hawks, 10-18 ATS (6-22 SU) as road underdogs, have a game against Memphis tomorrow. Considering that those same Grizzlies just hammered them 127-88 at Atlanta, thats a game that the Hawks could easily get caught looking ahead to. These teams have split this season's first two meetings. In both cases, the home team won by double-digits. Expect another win and cover for the home team in this one. |
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03-05-20 | Wyoming v. Nevada UNDER 141 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/Nevada UNDER the total. While Nevada is a relatively high-scoring team, the opposite is true of Wyoming. The Cowboys are by far the lowest scoring team in the conference. They average only 61.1 ppg overall. The Wyoming defense isn't that bad though. The Cowboys allow a respectable 69.1 ppg. When these teams met on 1/14, the O/U line was 133. That one finished with 135. More recently, when they met at Wyoming on 2/25, the O/U line was 140. That one finished with 141. Two tough losses for 'under' bettors, both going over by a bucket or less. They're on a neutral court now though and there's going to be some added defensive intensity, due to it being a tournament game. Expect the Cowboys to have some trouble scoring, leading to the final score staying beneath the generously high total. |
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03-05-20 | Clippers v. Rockets +1 | Top | 120-105 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Talk about lack of respect. The Rockets are 21-8 at home while the Clippers are 17-13 on the road. Yet, the oddsmakers are telling us its a coin-flip (pick'em) game. Just needing to win, I feel that the Rockets are offering us excellent value. While the Clippers could easily get caught looking ahead to a showdown vs. the Lakers, the Rockets have Charlotte on deck. Nothing to get caught looking ahead to there. The Rockets have taken two of three meetings on the season and they're 16-9 SU/ATS against winning teams overall. They won the earlier game here by nine. Even with a loss to open the month, they're a dominant 26-5 in the month of March the past two seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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03-05-20 | Illinois State v. Drake -2.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on DRAKE. While these teams split the regular season meetings, both winning at home, I believe that the Bulldogs bring more to the table in this matchup. Note that Drake is 10-2 ATS its last 12 on a neutral court and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a neutral court favorite of six or less. Illinois State does check in off a win at Evansville but is just 3-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a win as an underdog. The last time that the Redbirds played back-to-back games away from home, they lost by 20. Bulldogs get it done, setting up a rematch with top-seeded Northern Iowa in the quarters. |
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03-04-20 | Magic v. Heat UNDER 218 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/Miami UNDER he total. The Magic have been on an 'over' streak, which has helped in providing us with a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Consider that the O/U line of 207 when the Magic visited here in January. That game finished with 205 points. Since that time, the teams met at Orlando. That one was even lower-scoring, finishing with just 191. In fact, seven straight meetings between these teams have finished with 206 or fewer combined points. I successfully played against the Magic in their last game, as they got pounded as as home favorite by Portland. That result is noteworthy as the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Magic were coming off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by six or more. During that span, the Heat, who check in off an impressive blowout win of the Bucks, have seen the UNDER go 10-5 when off a double-digit win, in a game where they were underdogs. They held Milwaukee to a mere 89 points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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03-04-20 | Pacers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pacers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, I won with the Pacers when these teams played a few weeks ago. However, that was at Indiana and the Bucks were without the league's best player. Here's an excerpt from what I said that day: "While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight." Of course, things are different now. The Bucks are back home and Giannis is back. When the Bucks hosted the Pacers earlier, they won by a score of 117-89. Off a loss and playing with revenge, the Bucks are going to be more dangerous than ever. They're 14-6 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were off a road loss, in a game where they were favored. Overall, they're 32-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an upset loss, 13-3 ATS off an upset loss by double-digits. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. |
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03-04-20 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3 | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers already hammered the Gophers at Minnesota, a 68-56 win. Knowing that they need to take care of business to stamp their ticket to the Big Dance, I expect the Hoosiers to take care of business once again. To their credit, the Gophers have played better recently. However, they're off b2b heartbreaking losses, losing by a single point against Maryland and then by just two at Wisconsin. That Maryland loss really stung, as they blew a huge lead (up 16 at half) and lost on a 3-pointer with less than two seconds to go. Then, to go and lose another really close one against the Badgers, has to take a toll. I expect them to be emotionally drained. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Hoosiers as they complete the series sweep, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-04-20 | Fordham v. George Washington UNDER 123 | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fordham/GW UNDER the total. The Rams have real trouble scoring on the road. They've lost eight straight away games, averaging a mere 51 ppg during that skid. While they may not be able to score, the Rams are a very stingy team. They allow just 62.3 ppg, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has been money in Fordham games all season. The Colonials, meanwhile, average only 66.6 ppg. Thats just 271st in the Div. 1 rankings. They, too, have been a profitable 'under' team. Last time out, they managed only 51. This season's earlier meeting produced just 113 points. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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03-03-20 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 221 | Top | 107-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. I played on the Lakers 'over' the total in their last game. However, that was a Lebron/Zion showdown, the Lakers taking on a Pelican team which looks to push the pace at all times. The 76ers dont play at such a breakneck tempo and they're without offensive weapons, Embid, Simmons and Richardson. Note that the Lakers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 65-45 here at home, the past 2+ seasons. The 76ers covered, but lost SU, against the Clippers last time out. Thats a situation (off an ATS win but SU loss) which the 76ers have seen the UNDER go 4-1, the past 2+ seasons. This season's earlier meeting only produced 199 points, staying below the total by double-digits. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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03-03-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State UNDER 143.5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Youngstown State UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other to close out the regular season. That game snuck below the total of 142.5, finishing with 142 points. Now, facing each other in tournament play, I expect to see some defensive intensity, leading to an even lower score. Note that the Panthers have seen the UNDER go 7-3 their last 10 tournament games, 3-0 their last three. During that span, the Penguins have seen five of eight tournament games stay below the number. The Youngstown State defense hasn't been great overall but the Penguins are stingier at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers score less on the road but allow about the same on the road as the do at home. Look for it to all add up to the final score proving lower than many will be expecting. |
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03-03-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Youngstown State | Top | 57-63 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. These teams are very evenly matched and they've already played two really close games against each other this season. In both cases, the road team won. The Penguins won by four at Milwaukee. The Panthers won by two, here at Youngstown State. So, they know that they can win here. I'm expecting another close one, as they teams open tournament play. The Youngstown State defense isn't good and that makes covering points difficult. The Penguins are 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were home favorites of six or less. They're also 9-16 ATS their last 25, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. They've won just seven of their last 34 games played in the month of March. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS their last 10, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. In what should be another close one, grab the points. |
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03-02-20 | Texas Tech v. Baylor OVER 129.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas Tech / Baylor OVER the total. While I obviously respect the Baylor defense, I feel that this number will prove to be too low. While Baylor games may average only 130.4 points, Texas Tech road games average 136.5 points. The last meeting between the teams here had an O/U line of 125.5 but finished with 135. While that came last January, its worth mentioning that the OVER is 8-2 the last 10 Baylor games in the month of March. The Red Raiders have seen the OVER go 3-0 the past three times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. As for the Bears, off the 75-72 loss to TCU, note that they've seen the OVER go 14-6-1 the past 21 times that they were off a Big 12 loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will expecting. |
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03-02-20 | Blazers +7 v. Magic | Top | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won't get Lillard back for this one, as they had hoped earlier in the week. Of course, this is reflected in the line, as we wouldn't be getting the Blazers as a big underdog otherwise. While its possible he'll be back next game, the Blazers can't wait for their star. They need this game to salvage at least something from their trip. They've fallen back in the West and can't afford to fall back any further. The Magic are a team which they can absolutely compete with. While Orlando is 5-5 its past 10 games, none of the five wins came by more than 10 points. Two came by less than five. Last time, the Magic lost by one. This one could easily also come down to the wire and this is a lot of points to be getting. Note that Portland has won the last six meetings with the Magic. The last time that Orlando won a game in the series was January of 2017 and that win came by only six. Looking back further finds that Orlando has won seven of the past 20 meetings but that none of those wins came by more than 10. Beating the Blazers is never easy for them and they'll be facing a desperate team in this one. Yes, the Magic would obviously like to avenge a December loss in Portland. However, they're just 7-19-4 ATS their past 30 in the revenge role. That includes an ugly 1-18-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge from a road loss. So, thats not exactly a motivator for them! With a 20-7 record their past 27 against teams from the Southeast, look for the Blazers to bring their best effort, at least taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. |
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03-01-20 | Lakers v. Pelicans OVER 234.5 | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/NO OVER the total. These teams met at LA on 2/25. That game had an O/U line of 239. With that one having fallen below the total, we're working with a lower number tonight. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Lakers, who lost at Memphis yesterday, have seen the OVER go 2-0 when off an upset loss in a game where they were favored by double-digits. In 2020, the Lakers have played two games in two days three previous times. In all three cases, their second game in two days finished comfortably above the total. Those games had combined scores of 242, 241 and 235. As for the Pelicans, they've seen the OVER go 10-4, when off a double-digit win and 14-6 when coming off a game against a team from the East. Expect both teams to put up a big number, leading to the final combined score finishing above the total. |
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03-01-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 129 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER the total. Needless to say, both these teams are very capable defensively. When they met earlier, at Minnesota, these teams combined for just 122 points, that game staying below the number. That was with the Gophers scoring 70 on their home floor though. They likely won't get nearly as many here. In their previous two games against the Badgers, the Gophers had scored just 59 and 51 points. Both those games also fell beneath the total. Comfortably. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five meetings. Overall, the Gophers have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 22-10 their last 32 on the road. Look for more of the same this afternoon. |
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03-01-20 | Colorado +1.5 v. Stanford | Top | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes may be slight underdogs here but I believe they've got more talent and I absolutely expect them to come away with the victory. The Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS off a SU loss and 10-5 ATS off an ATS loss. Having dropped two straight (and three straight against the number) they're going to be a highly determined team. Note that Colorado is 2-0 SU/ATS as a road underdog of three or less. While it wins games with its defense, Colorado, which scored 81 when these teams met at Boulder, still averages more than 71 ppg. Thats noteworthy as the Cardinal are 0-7 when they allow 68 or more. I say the Buffs bounce back. |
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02-29-20 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Cal-Irvine -6.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on UC IRVINE. The Anteaters are playing great basketball. They've won nine of their last 10. The lone loss came against these same Gauchos, at UC Santa Barbara. Tonight, its payback time. The Gauchos may be without leading scorer Max Heidegger, as he went down with a left ankle injury midway through the first half of their last game. UCSB head coach Joe Pasternack had this to say: "It was terrible to see Max go down ..." Either way, I expect them to struggle against the Anteaters. The Anteaters only give up only 60.9 ppg at home and will absolutely make scoring difficult for the Gauchos, who have failed to hit the 50 mark in two of their last three visits here. The last three games here between these teams have seen the Anteaters win by scores of 83-70, 69-49 and 64-47. Expect another double-digit win here. |
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02-29-20 | Arizona v. UCLA UNDER 137 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/UCLA UNDER the total. These teams met a few weeks ago. That O/U line was also in the 130s. Yet, they combined for only 117 points. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. Prior to a 75-72 game against ASU, the Bruins had allowed 63, 58 and 57 points. Arizona is one of the stingier teams in the conference too though; the Wildcats allow 65 ppg. The Wildcats' confidence may be a little shaken on offense though as they managed a mere 48 points last game. With UCLA having won the earlier meeting, it should be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that Arizona attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The UNDER is also 7-3-1 when the Bruins were getting points. Expect a defensive affair. |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. While the Spurs will be without Aldridge, they've still got more than enough to take care of business at home against an Orlando team which is playing its second game in two days. Yes, Aldridge does a lot. DeRozan and co. can carry the load for a game which the Spurs badly need. It should be noted that Orlando is just 1-8 SU and 2-5-2 ATS, when playing its second game in two days. The Spurs, who have had the past couple of days off, play with revenge from an earlier 2-point loss at Orlando. They're 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Prior to the 2-point loss, the previous meeting between these teams saw San Antonio win by 39. While the Spurs likely won't win by that many tonight, I do expect them to ultimately pull away for another comfortable victory. |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz UNDER 230.5 | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Utah UNDER the total. After four straight losses, I expect the Jazz to have some added intensity on the defensive end of the floor for this one. While this season's earlier game did finish above the total, eight of the past 12 meetings have fallen below the number. Tonight's O/U line is higher than any of those games. Higher than any game between these teams, ever, so far as I can tell. (I looked back at 30 meetings dating back to 2005. Those 30 O/U lines ranged between 181-227.) Of course, such a high O/U line provides us with plenty of room to work with. Keep in mind that the Jazz only allow 106.2 ppg here at home, the sixth best mark in the NBA. The Wizards scored only 99 the last time that they faced a team (Memphis) from the West. That game had an O/U line of 241 and finished with only 205. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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02-28-20 | Washington State v. Washington -9.5 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After losing 9-straight, the Huskies finally earned a victory last time out. It wasn't just any win either as they hammered Cal by a score of 87-52. Off that momentum-building blowout, the losing streak now in the rear-view mirror, I expect the Huskies to follow it up with another big win against their instate rivals. Note that one of those nine losses came at Washington State, the Cougars winning by a 79-67 score. Needless to say, the Huskies haven't forgotten. Prior to that 2/9 loss, the Huskies had beaten the Cougars four straight times. The last meeting here at Washington saw the Huskies win 85-67. The previous meeting here at Washingto resulted in a 80-62 win for the Huskies. Remember, Washington was ranked at one point and started the season with a win against #1 Baylor. This is a team with some talent. Expect the revenge-minded Huskies to salvage the series split with another double-digit win. |
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02-28-20 | Hornets +13.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Raptors recent destroyed the Pacers. The Pacers turned around and hammered the Hornets. So, that should mean that the Raptors beat the Hornets by even more, right? While its possible, that type of logic rarely works in sports handicapping. While those results have helped us by providing an extra generous line, this is an entirely new game and matchup. I expect the Hornets, who have since responded to the Indiana loss by beating NY, to give the champs a tough game. Note that the last time these teams met, the Raptors won by only two points. In fact, three of the past four meetings between these teams have been decided by two points or less. The Hornets have actually won four of six overall, too. A look at Toronto's last eight games reveals that only two resulted in wins of greater than 11. Grab the points and expect another close one. |
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02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams lost on the road last night. The Knicks fought hard until the end but lost at Charlotte. The 76ers got blown out at Cleveland. While the Knicks' loss was "normal," the 76'ers' loss was unacceptable. There's no way they should get hammered by a team like Cleveland. Back home and still stinging from that loss, they should be ready to take out their anger on the Knicks tonight. The 76ers have actually won seven of their last eight, when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they were in that situation, they beat Memphis by 12. The last two times that the 76ers were off a double-digit loss, they immediately followed it up with a double-digit win. While they're without Simmons and likely Embid (having MRI today) the 76ers have more than enough talent and pride to bounce back once again. Expect them to do just that. |
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02-27-20 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 130.5 | Top | 49-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Indiana UNDER the total. The last time that these teams played here (1/19/19) the O/U line was 141 and they combined for only 125. I don't think they'll even get that many tonight as I'm expecting another defensive battle tonight. Purdue allows just 62.6 ppg, right there among the best in the conference. However, the Boilermakers 68.3 ppg on offense ranks near the bottom of the heap. "Over" bettors have fared pretty well when the Hoosiers have been favored. However, the opposite is true when Indiana is an underdog. In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 when the Hoosiers have been getting points. Purdue comes in on a losing streak and fell, as a home favorite, against Michigan last time out. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 6-3 the last couple of seasons when the Boilers were off an upset loss in conference play and 3-1 when they were off a home loss. With some extra defensive intensity right out of the gate, look for those stats to improve here. |
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02-26-20 | Celtics v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Tough spot for the Celtics. After a hard-fought game against the Lakers on Sunday, they played at Portland last night. That makes this their third road game in the past four days. Don't expect the Jazz to show them any sympathy. The Jazz, 15-5 SU and 12-6-2 ATS against teams from the East, have dropped three straight and they got embarrassed last time out, losing by 20 to the Suns, right here in front of their home fans. That's inexcusable. Like the Pacers last night, who were also off an embarrassing loss, I expect the Jazz to respond with a huge effort. Note that the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off an upset loss by 15 or more, when they were a home favorite. They're also 15-8 ATS (17-6 SU) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three or more consecutive games. Knowing that they'll face these same Celtics, at Boston, on 3/6, look for the Jazz to take advantage of the favorable schedule and to take care of business on their home floor. |
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02-26-20 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 206.5 | Top | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Charlotte OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Knicks last game produced 235 combined points. They've allowed at least 106 in four straight games and they allow an average of 113.4 ppg on the road on the season. The Hornets, meanwhile, allow 110.7 ppg at home. Last night, they gave up 119, at Indiana. The past few times that the Hornets played the second of b2b games, they allowed 119, 115 and 125. All those games finished above the total. Expect this one to do the same. |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on PENN STATE. While I successfully played against the Nittany Lions in their last game, a 68-60 loss at Indiana, I'm coming right back with them in this one. Back at home and now off consecutive losses, the Lions are going to be in an angry mood. The fact that they already lost at Rutgers will only add to that. The Knights won their first road game of 2020, eking out a victory at Nebraska on 1/3. Since then, however, they've lost every single road game that they've played, going 0-5 SU in those games. In fact, that win at Nebraska was their only true road win all season. The bottom line is that the Knights are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The last time that Penn State played a home game, after having lost their previous two or more, they hammered Ohio State by a score of 90-76. Expect another double-digit win this evening. |
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02-26-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 114 | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Virginia/V-Tech UNDER the total. While this number may seem low, its now low enough. As per usual, Virginia is a dominant defensive team. The Cavs allow 52.7 ppg. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 111.5 and they combined for 104. The Hokies managed only 39 in that one. They have yet to hit 60 in any of their last three games against Virginia. V-Tech players had this to say of Virginia's defense. Jalen Cone: "It was definitely a blow in the face. Those guys were big. Very big. Those guys, they could guard the ball very well. It was shocking for all the freshmen." Wabissa Bede: "You think it's a good shot, but it's really a bad shot. It's just the shot they want you to take. You might be wide-open and there’d be like 27 seconds [left] on the shot clock, rather than keep going and you can wind them down like they do to everybody. They don't shoot until less than six seconds on the shot clock." Look for the Cavs to effectively slow the tempo once again, leading to the final combined score staying below the number once again. |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Pacers were humiliated at Toronto on Sunday and are going to be in an extremely angry mood. Indeed, that was an ugly loss, as the champs beat them by 46. Thats noteworthy as Indiana is a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss of 20 or more points. That includes a 6-2 ATS mark when off a road loss of 20 or more. The Hornets are also off a pretty bad loss of their own, as Brooklyn beat them by 29, at Charlotte. They don't seem to have the same type of pride as the Pacers though, as they're just 1-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss of 20 or more. Going back further finds them at an ugly 11-29-1 ATS (9-32 SU) in that situation. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by double-digits and they won the last meeting here at Indiana by 22. Expect another blowout. |
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02-25-20 | La Salle v. Davidson -11 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Off a disappointing and close loss at St. Joseph's, I liked how the Wildcats responded against Rhode Island. Though they narrowly missed out on the cover, they were able to pull off the OT victory. Thats the type of win they can build momentum from. Stepping down in class to face a weaker La Salle team, I expect the Wildcats to deliver a far more convincing victory. The last time that the teams played here, Davidson won by 19. While the Explorers have won their last two, those wins came against teams below them in the conf. standings, which is not the case here. Prior to the two wins, the Explorers had been mired in a 1-9 SU stretch, their most recent two losses coming by 15 and 27 points. The last time that the Explorers played the second of back-to-back road games, as they're doing here, they lost by 18. I say that the "good Davidson" shows up and delivers another beatdown. |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Jazz are going to be an angry team. They're 3-0 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss at home, in a game where they were favored. Going back further finds them at 9-4 ATS their last 13 in that situation. The Suns, on the other hand, are 8-14 ATS (5-17 SU) when off a victory. While they won a close one at Phoenix earlier, the Jazz have beaten the Suns 10 straight times here and those games haven't been close. Eight of those victories came by double-digits, including each of the past four. The Suns are just 5-12-1 ATS (4-14 SU) when attempting to avenge a loss of three of less. I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Jazz. |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz OVER 223.5 | Top | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Utah OVER the total. The Jazz are off a 120-110 loss. They've seen the OVER go 10-4 after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. Tonight, they're going to put up a big number. Last time they hosted the Suns, they scored 125. The Suns are going to get theirs too though. They've hit triple-digits in seven straight games. Phoenix road games average 225 points on the season. With the Jazz having a won a close one at Phoenix, note that the Suns have seen the OVER go 7-2 the past nine times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points. While the Suns have seen recent games finish below the total, the OVER remains a healthy 14-9 the past couple of seasons, when their previous three, or more, games stayed below the total. Look for those stats to improve as this evening's game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State +15 v. Kansas | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Jayhawks are laying a massive number here. Given the fact that they're going to be a tired team, after leaving it all on the floor to win at Baylor, I believe that number will prove to be too high. Bill Self had this to say of his players: "They are exhausted. They've got to be toast. Doke (Azubuike) and Marcus (Garrett) and Ochai (Agbaji) and 'Dot' (Devon Dotson) … those guys have gotta be toast with as many minutes as they played." After winning by 17 on Saturday, the Cowboys have won three of their last four. Though they did stumble at WVU, the Cowboys had covered their previous two on the road, including an 8-point loss at Baylor, a game where they were getting +12.5 points. Getting even more points against a tired Kansas team, expect the Cowboys to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover. |
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02-23-20 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC. I won with the Thunder and I'm coming back with them again today. The Spurs won here earlier this month, after the teams had split this season's first two meetings, at San Antonio. However, even with their win here and a victory at Utah in their last game, the Spurs remain a poor 10-19 away from home. That makes OKC's 18-12 home record look pretty good. Note that the Spurs are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off two or more consecutive road wins. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS their last 25 in the revenge role. They're also 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were home favorites of six or less. Additionally, they're 10-2 ATS when off a double-digit win, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home win. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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02-23-20 | Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 219 | Top | 81-127 | Win | 101 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Indiana UNDER the total. Both teams were stingy in their first game back from the break. The Raptors held the Suns to 101 points. The Pacers limited the Knicks to just 98. Off the win at MSG, note that Indiana has gone under the total at a 32-21-1 rate the past couple of seasons, when off a road win. During that span, the Pacers have also seen the UNDER go 37-18 when playing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season. The champs have now allowed 101 in b2b games while the Pacers have allowed 111 or less in three straight. Note that Oladipo scored in double-figures in both February meetings and that he's currently doubtful. That being the case, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-23-20 | Penn State v. Indiana | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Nittany Lions come in with the better record. However, the Hoosiers have both homecourt and momentum on their side. Last time out, Penn State saw its winning streak snapped, losing at home against Illinois. Indiana, on the other hand, hammered Minnesota by double-digits, on the road, last time out. In their last home game, the Hoosiers handled Iowa, also by double-digits. Playing with revenge from a loss at Penn State and hungry for a win over a ranked opponent, I look for the Hoosiers to get it done once again. |
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02-22-20 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-104 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Chicago OVER the total. With two teams from opposite conferences, both playing out the string, there should be little need for much defensive intensity in this one. The Suns' last visit here had an O/U line of 217.5 yet it produced 240 points. The Suns, who got hammered at Toronto yesterday, have seen the OVER go 6-3 when off a double-digit road loss and 11-4 off a road loss overall. Additionally, the OVER is 7-2 when the played the second of b2b games. The Bulls last game stayed below the total but their previous eight games all finished above the number. Expect some offensive fireworks in this one. |
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02-22-20 | Virginia Tech v. Duke -16 | Top | 64-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. The Hokies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting upset at NC State, the Blue Devils are going to be in an angry mood here and looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire game. After they're last loss, the Blue Devils were listed as a -19-point favorite against Miami in their next game. They won by 30. Speaking of Miami, the Hurricanes just dropped 102 points on the Hokies, at V-Tech. Note that the Hokies are 1-4 ATS when off an upset loss. They're 2-6 off a conf. loss overall. The Blue Devils are a dominant 18-4 ATS (20-2 SU) the past 22 times that they lost by double-digits in a game where they were favored, 11-2 ATS when off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by six or more. Expect this one to get ugly. |
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02-22-20 | Mavs v. Hawks +6 | Top | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. You may recall that Doncic and Young were traded for each other on draft night, in 2018. So, they'll always be linked together and whenever they meet, its going to be a big deal. Both are having huge seasons and both were starters in the All Star Game. The Mavs won the earlier meeting, at Dallas. However, Doncic didn't play in that one and Young left partway through with an ankle injury. Tonight, both are ready to go. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect Young and the Hawks to have the advantage. Note that Young scored a career high 50 last time out, the Hawks winning outright against Miami. They since had yesterday off. The Mavs, on the other hand, will play their second game in two days. The Hawks have quietly won five of their last six games here overall, the lone loss coming by single digits. The only two teams to beat them here since 1/20 were Boston and Toronto and both those games were close. They've also beaten the Mavs six straight times here and seven of the last eight. While Doncic will surely do his thing, expect Young and co. to ultimately get (at least) the cover. |
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02-21-20 | Rider v. Iona OVER 148 | Top | 69-70 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Rider/Iona OVER the total. As of this writing, Iona is favored by a single point, at most shops, -1.5 at some. So, this is expected to be a close one, both teams having a chance to win. That means we're likely to see scoring the entire way, unlike some games where the big favorite gets a big lead and then takes its foot off the gas. Iona has seen the OVER go 6-3 as a home favorite, 3-1 as a home favorite of three or fewer points. Its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-1 when the Gaels were off an ATS win. Rider, which looks to avenge an earlier home loss, has seen the OVER go 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when playing with revenge from a home loss where it was favored by seven or more points. The Broncs have also seen the OVER go 12-7 the past couple of seasons, when off a win of 15 or more points. The last meeting here had an O/U line of 172. This one is obviously much lower, which I feel is offering us excellent value. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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02-20-20 | Stanford v. Washington -2 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Both teams are currently struggling. Both will be looking for a win but I expect homecourt to prove the difference. While they haven't fared well overall at the betting window this season; this is one role which the Huskies have performed well in. They're 2-1 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points, 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of three or less. Tonight, they'll be looking to avenge an earlier 6-point loss at Stanford. The last time that the teams played here, the Huskies hammered the Cardinal by an 80-64 score. Stanford is just 3-7 ATS the past 10 times it was a road underdog of six or less. As disappointing as this season has been, the Huskies match up well against the Cardinal. In the earlier game at Stanford, the Huskies were up eight at halftime and they were up 12 with a little more than 10 minutes to go. They let that one get away but tonight, playing at home, look for them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. |
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02-20-20 | Bucks v. Pistons +13.5 | Top | 126-106 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that the Pistons are catching the Bucks at the right time. Fresh off the All-Star Game/Break, Giannis and co. may not be fully focused on the lowly Pistons. That's particularly true with a big home game against the 76'ers on deck. Yet, they're being asked to lay a massive number on the road. Note that they're just 1-3 ATS over the years, when favored by more than 12.5 points on the road. During that span, the Bucks are also an ugly 49-68-2 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, a 1-2 ATS mark their last three in that situation. The Pistons, who play with double-revenge, will be anxious to stop the bleeding and to avoid getting embarrassed, like what happened last time (12/4) the Bucks visited. Grab the generous points and expect the Pistons to give their guests a much tougher game than many will be expecting. |
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02-19-20 | Long Beach State v. Cal-Irvine OVER 139.5 | Top | 55-70 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Long Beach State/UC Irive OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game against each other, at Long Beach State, last month. The O/U line was 142 and they combined for just 119. However, note that we're working with a lower O/U line here and that the previous five meetings had all produced at least 142 combined points. Long Beach State gives up a whopping 81.4 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, UC Irvine scores 81.5 ppg at home. The 49'ers have seen the OVER go 8-4 as road underdogs. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 the past four times that they were off a home win, when listed as an underdog. The Anteaters, who are currently favored by 15, have seen the OVER go 8-1 the past nine times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. Look for those stats to improve tonight, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-19-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -11.5 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Eagles are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Cavs haven't forgotten that BC beat them, at Boston College, last month. Remember, this is a BC team which the Cavs hammered 83-56 in last season's lone meeting. That was at BC, too. Now, finally catching the Eagles on their home floor, this one should also result in a blowout. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS off an upset win, within the conference, when listed as a home underdog. Overall, they're 2-5 ATS off a home win. Off b2b close wins, and now stepping down considerably in class, the Cavs are ready to deliver a beating. BC allows 72.9 ppg on the road while Virginia allows 48.4 ppg at home. Expect a rout. |
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02-18-20 | Colorado State v. UNLV -120 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing UNLV on the ML. The Rams hammered UNLV at Colorado State earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Rebels to have their revenge this evening. Prior to this month's earlier meeting, the Rebels had won the last three meetings. The last here in Vegas saw the Rebels win by two, as 9.5 point favorites. While that wasnt enough for the cover, they did win SU, again. The Rams are 3-8 SU as underdogs. The Rebels are 10-3 SU as favorites. Going back further finds them at 40-13 SU the past 2+ season, when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas OVER 141 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa State/Kansas OVER the total. The Jayhawks have primarily been an 'under' team this season. However, that doesn't mean we can't find value going the other way. Indeed, the earlier 'under' results have helped keep their O/U lines lower than they could easily otherwise be. I won with the OVER in their game vs. OU on Saturday and I look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. Consider that the last 25 meetings between these teams have all seen O/U lines greater than 141. The last 20 of those all had O/U lines of 143 or more. The Cyclones have seen the OVER go 6-3 on the road. The OVER is also 2-0 when the Cyclones played with one or less day's rest in between games. Iowa State scored 81 on Saturday while Kansas scored 87. Look for Kansas to put up another big number here and Iowa State to provide the rest, en route to the final combined score finishing above the number. |
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02-16-20 | Villanova -6.5 v. Temple | Top | 76-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats have struggled to cover of late. However, they can finally claim the "All-Time Big 5 Title" lead, with a win this afternoon and I fully expect a game against the rival Owls to bring out their best. Last meeting, Villanova pulled away for a double-digit (69-59) win. Not only are the Owls outclassed, they're 1-3 SU/ATS their last four, when off a conference win. They're also dealing with a few players who are playing at less than 100%. Wright this of Villanova's history and the importance of this game: "We talk to them about basketball history all the time and a big part of Villanova history is Big 5 history and living here in the city. We want them to respect Philadelphia basketball ..." I like that Nova checks in off a 1-point win over Marquette, as thats the type of victory a team can build momentum from. Look for the Cats to do exactly that this afternoon. |
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02-15-20 | Colorado -2 v. Oregon State | Top | 69-47 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Beavers are going to face an angry bunch of Buffaloes on Saturday. Not only is Colorado angry about blowing its last game, at Oregon, but the Buffaloes also haven't forgotten that the Beavers upset them, at Boulder, back on January 5th. At the time, the Buffs may have been in letdown mode, off a big win over Oregon. That sure won't be the case this time though. Colorado is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that it was off a loss. Off their previous three 2020 losses, the Buffaloes won by scores of 91-52, 78-56 and 78-57. Last season, the Beavers also won at Boulder. Then, in the rematch, the revenge-minded Buffaloes went to Oregon State and, laying -2.5, won by a score of 73-58. Expect more of the same. |
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02-15-20 | UNLV v. New Mexico UNDER 154 | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Mexico/UNLV UNDER the total. The Rebels play at a relatively slow pace and they often have trouble scoring on the road. Last time away from Vegas, they scored only 54 at Fresno State. Really, their last game (at home vs. Nevada) they only finished above the number due to a lot of unncessary (in my opinion) trips to the line for both teams and the game going to OT. (I was at the game and thought there were an awful lot of ticky-tack fouls called early in both halves.) This number is high. Expect the final score to prove lowe than most will be expecting. |
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02-14-20 | Denver v. South Dakota State -14 | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH DAKOTA STATE. There's an obvious talent gap between these teams, as evidenced by their records and their places in the Summitt standings. The Pioneers are in last while the Jackrabbits are challenging for the top spot. The Jackrabbits have won seven straight in the series, winning by an average of 13 points. Tonight's margin of victory should be even greater. Denver has lost 11 straight on the road, getting outscored by an average of 82.2 to 66.7. Meanwhile, South Dakota State has won 13 straight at home, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 81.8 to 63.3. The Pioneers are 4-9 ATS their last 13 when attempting to avenge a loss and they're 1-4 ATS their last five when off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Jackrabbits have been money as home favorites all season long. No reason for them not to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way and win this one by 20+. |
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02-13-20 | Arizona State v. Stanford OVER 137 | Top | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona State/Stanford OVER the total. A look at recent meetings between these teams reveals O/U lines of 149.5, 158.5, 158.5, 149 and 151.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower O/U number tonight; I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Those five games had combined scores of 186, 163, 167, 156 and 142. All five of those scores, of course, would have easily finished above tonight's low number today. Note that the OVER is 2-0 when ASU played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for the Cardinal, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off b2b road losses. ASU's last road game produced 170 points. Stanford's last game produced 155 points. With both teams scoring the entire way, look for this one to finish above the low number. |
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02-13-20 | Clippers v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 133-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Clippers won a close one when these teams met at LA earlier. I believe homecourt will again prove the difference. While the Clippers are a mediocre 15-12 on the road, the Celtics are a dominant 22-5 at home. LA outscores teams by a 114 to 111.4 margin on the road. Boston outscores teams by a 115.9 to 105.9 margin here at home. The Clips are 3-5 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics are 6-4 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points. With the Celts also 8-3 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a road loss, I'm laying the short number. |
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02-12-20 | Nevada v. UNLV -1 | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. I won with Nevada when these teams faced each other at Reno a few weeks ago. I've included an excerpt from that writeup below. I noted that the Wolf Pack were in a good situation and that I liked that they were playing in Reno. Tonight's rematch, however, is at Thomas And Mack Center in Vegas and I fully expect that to favor the Rebels. Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS and 1-8 SU the past nine times it was a road underdog. The Rebels, on the other hand, are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites. They're also 4-1 ATS the past five times that they played with revenge. I say its "payback time" in Vegas, tonight. Writeup on Nevada on 1/22. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this battle of instate rivals. Off a loss against SDSU, Nevada is going to be angry. The Wolfpack won last year's games by 17, at UNLV and by 19 here, at Nevada. They were favored by -16.5 points for that game. While the gap between the teams has absolutely narrowed, I don't believe its done so enough to warrant such a huge different in the pointspread. The Wolfpack are still 7-2 at home this season and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of -6 or less. They're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that role, dating back the past couple of years. During that span, the Pack are also 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 0-3 SU/ATS when off b2b double-digit conference wins. Nevada bounces back with an important win, covering the small number along the way. |
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02-12-20 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight. |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is the first of two meetings between these teams this month. They'll close out February with a game at Boston on 2/29. Tonight's game, however, is at Houston and that favors the Rockets. The Celtics are an outstanding 25-9 at home but they're only 15-10 on the road. Likewise, the Rockets are 15-12 on the road but a much better 18-8 here at Houston. The Rockets swept last year's series, including a 14-point win here at Houston. The Celtics are off seven straight wins but they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they'd won their previous seven. Off b2b losses, the Rockets are going to be extremely hungry. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way. |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Consider that the Cavaliers were 17-point favorites when they hosted the Irish last season. Needless to say, we're getting the Cavs at a far lower line here. While the gap between the teams has narrowed, I don't think its done so enough to warrant such a massive line swing. That said, I feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off a loss at Louisville, Virginia is going to be hungry. The Cavs are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a road loss. While the Cavs lost at Louisville, the Irish won at Clemson. Thats noteworthy as they're 0-6 ATS the past six times that they were off a conference road win. With the Irish also 3-8 ATS the past 11 times that they were off a win of six or fewer points, I'm laying the points with Virginia. |
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02-10-20 | Suns +13 v. Lakers | Top | 100-125 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. This is a lot of points to be giving a capable Suns team, one which recently hammered Houston, one which is 11-7 ATS in the road underdog role. The Suns' last two losses have both come by single-digits. They're playing with double-revenge here, which should provide some added motivation. Both LA victories came by 10 points or less. The last time that the Lakers played at home, they lost by 10 against the Rockets. (The same Rockets that Phoenix handled.) Since then, they won by only five against the Warriors. The Suns have played them tough and I look for the Lakers to have their hands full again this evening. |
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02-10-20 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 127.5 | Top | 42-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU/Texas Tech OVER the total. This is quite a low O/U line and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Red Raiders have seen the OVER go 9-5-2 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. A closer look reveals that the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Red Raider home games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. Last season's visit by the Frogs had an O/U line of 132 and produced 149 points. They already had 70 by halftime. Sure, the Raiders are off b2b "defensive" victories, both of which stayed below the total. However, keep in mind that their previous three all finished above the total, each producing a minimum of 150 points. Also, note that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven, when Texas Tech had scored 30 or fewer first half points, in b2b games. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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02-09-20 | Knicks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 135-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Hawks have the schedule working in their favor. They had yesterday off while the Celtics are off a hard-fought win, at Detroit, less than 24 hours ago. This will now be the Knicks' third game in the past four days. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Knicks hammered them, at MSG, back in December. This is a NY team which they can beat and the Hawks are going to be itching for some payback. Expect them to improve to 20-14 ATS when playing with revenge from a game where the opposing team scored 110 or more. |
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02-09-20 | Tulsa v. UCF -2 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF. The Golden Hurricane have had better results than the Knights the past few weeks overall. However, momentum is a funny thing. Tulsa saw its winning streak snapped with a loss at UConn last time out. Meanwhile, UCF checks in off a win against East Carolina. Expect that loss to take some wind from Tulsa's sails while the win will provide the Knights with some positive momentum. The home team has won four straight in this series. The Knights won by two here last season after winning by 18 here the previous year. Expect homecourt to prove the difference once again, the Knights covering the small number along the way. |
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02-08-20 | San Francisco v. BYU UNDER 148.5 | Top | 76-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/BYU UNDER the total. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, BYU led 54-40 with 16 minutes left. However, the Cougars collapsed and lost 83-82. I expect a much better defensive effort on their home floor this evening. In the last game, San Francisco guard Khalil Shabazz came off the bench and scored 32 points (a career-high) shooting a perfect 10-for-10 from the floor that day. Thats not going to happen again. BYU's Childs said this of the earlier loss: "But I wouldn’t go back and change that loss because we’ve learned so much about the defensive end and the importance of it. Because we’re a good shooting team doesn’t mean we can go out and outshoot teams ..." The Dons scored only 48 points last game and the Cougars allowed only 54. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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02-08-20 | Fresno State v. UNLV -4.5 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. It wasn't long ago that the Rebels were alone in second place in the Mountain West. However, four straight losses have them in sixth. It should also have them extremely motivated for Saturday's game against Fresno State. Indeed, the Rebels need to take advantage of this winnable game. Keep in mind that the top five teams in the conference get a first-day-bye in next month's conference tournament. These teams played their conf. opener against each other. That one went to double-OT. Despite playing on the road and playing without two starting guards, the Rebels won that one. They're healthier now and playing at home. Expect a win and cover. |
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02-08-20 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -7.5 | Top | 77-73 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Hokies have struggled of late. However, they know this is an opportunity to right the ship and they know that they need to take advantage. I expect them to do just that. The Hokies' current 4-game skip started with a loss at Boston College, against these same Eagles. Needless to say, they'll be itching for some payback. I expect them to put up a fairly big number today and I don't believe that the Eagles will have the offensive firepower to keep up. Note that Boston College is 4-12 SU when the opposing team scores 60 or more and 0-7 SU when the opposing team scores 74 or more. Prior to the 1/25 loss, the Hokies had won five straight meetings with the Eagles, three of those by double-digits. Expect a blowout. |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Blazers continued their impressive surge with a comeback with over the Spurs last night. Tonight, they'll take on a rested, motivated and revenge-minded Jazz team and I expect an exhausting recent schedule to catch up with them. Sure, the Blazers just beat the Jazz, when they were also playing their second game in two days. While that was impressive, it was also at Portland. Doing it here in Utah will be far tougher. The Jazz, 3-1 SU/ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge a double-digit road loss, allow just 103.8 ppg here. Note that this is also Portland's third game in the past four days, the first of those coming in the elevation of Denver. Endured in their worst losing streak in nearly four years, expect the desperate Jazz to give us their very best effort tonight, rising to the occasion with a double-digit win. |
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02-07-20 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Indiana UNDER the total. Off a 1-point comeback win by the Raptors and with these teams facing each other for the second time in 48 hours, I expect to see some added defensive intensity on Friday evening. For starters, Raptor road games are considerably lower-scoring than Raptor home games. Not only do the champs score fewer points on the road but they also allow less. On the season, Toronto road games average 214 points. Likewise, Pacer home games are lower-scoring than Pacer road games. Games here at Indiana average 214.8 points. Yet, because Wednesday's game was high-scoring, we're working with a higher O/U number here than we were there. I feel thats offering excellent value. The Pacers have seen the UNDER go 5-3 when playing with "same season revenge." As for the Raptors, they've seen the UNDER go 3-1 when off a win by three or less and 6-2 when off a SU win but ATS loss. Look for those stats to improve, as this one proves far lower-scoring than Wednesday's game. |
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02-07-20 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois OVER 132 | Top | 54-57 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kent. State/NIU OVER the total. These teams faced each other on 1/25. The O/U line was 135 and they combined for 145. I expect tonight's number, which is even lower, to also prove to be too low. Consider that the three previous times that these teams met (2018 and 2019) the O/U lines were 148.5, 146 and 150. While NIU games do average just 131 points, KSU games average a much higher 145.4. On the road, that number climbs to 145.6. Last time on the road, the Golden Flashes scored 83. Including the earlier result, Kent State has seen the OVER go 6-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Look for those stats to improve here. |
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02-06-20 | Pelicans v. Bulls +5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Zion Williamson, who is currently expected to play after reportedly spraining his toe last game, is obviously a special talent. However, he also brings a lot of hype and I believe his Pelicans are over-valued this evening. Consider that the Pelicans are a bigger favorite tonight than they were when they hosted the Bulls less than a month ago. Of course, the Bulls are a better team at home, than they are on the road. They just lost three straight but all those were on the road. Last time on this floor, they beat the Spurs. Note that Chicago is 6-3 ATS its last nine, when off three straight road losses and 7-3 ATS its last 10, when off b2b double-digit road losses. While the Bulls allow 106.2 ppg at home, the Pelicans allow 117.3 ppg on the road. The last two meetings here were both decided by six or less. I see this one also being close and am grabbing the points. |
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02-06-20 | Georgia State v. UL - Lafayette +5 | Top | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE. This is a huge game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Not only are they fighting to make the Sun Belt postseason but this is a team which absolutely embarrased them already this season. Coach Bob Marlin said. "We have had a good rivalry with Georgia State. They have had the upper-hand in that most of the time. This is one we need to get." While the Panthers are tough at home, they're 1-3 ATS (and SU) as road favorites. Note that LA-Lafayette, which has covered its last three overall, won 76-72 when these teams met here last season. The Cajuns, who won 81-60 last time they were on this floor, are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. |
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02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves -5.5 | Top | 127-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Enough is enough. The T-Wolves badly need a win and the Hawks, the team with the worst record in the East, present them with the perfect opportunity to get one. The Wolves already won comfortably, at Atlanta. This is a team which they know they can beat. The Wolves' last loss came by just four, at Sacramento. Thats noteworthy as they're 5-2 ATS when off a loss by six or fewer points. Admittedly, home wins have been few and far between for Minnesota. Still, the Hawks, who are giving up an average of more than 125 ppg over their last five, are only 8-18 ATS (5-21 SU) on the road. Note that for Atlanta this game is sandwiched between a home-and-home set with the Celtics. I say the Wolves finally break through with a win and cover. |