Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Clippers have had this game circled. Recall that the Suns eliminated them from the Western Conference Finals last year. This is the first meeting since. While neither team will be at full strength, Booker's absence figures to have the biggest impact. He went down Nov. 30th; the Suns are 1-3 ATS in December. Booker averaged 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists in last year's six playoffs games vs. LA. The Suns may have closed out the series here. However, the Clippers are still 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings here. Off three straight wins, the Clippers have been rounding into form. They have tomorrow off (Suns play at Portland) and they'll be bringing it tonight. Payback. |
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12-13-21 | Indiana State v. North Dakota State -2.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NDSU. I played on the Bison in their last game. I noted the following: "The Matadors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams faced each other in 2019, at Northridge. The Bison won by nine. Playing on their homecourt, angry off a loss, I expect a bigger margin of victory tonight. This is a veteran NDSU team; some of the players are still starting that were in the 2019 win. Guys like Eady and Kreuser, a first-team All Summit choice last year. In fact, the Bison returned all five starters from last year's team. They won 114-51 last time on this floor. They're catching CSUN, which has a first year coach, off losses of 18 and 26 points. While NDSU should finish near the top of the Summit conference, CSUN should finish near the bottom of the Big West. Expect a double-digit victory." While Indiana State represents a tougher challenge, I like what I saw from the Bison and I expect them to build momentum from their victory. The Sycamores have a first year coach. Last month, they saw Tyreke Key go down to injury. He was their leading scorer from the previous year and had been considering turning pro. Note that Key led all scorers with 27 points when these teams met in 2019. His injury was devastating to this team and his absence will be noticed in this one. The Sycamores are 10-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. The Bison are 24-4 SU at home, 7-5 ATS as home favorites of three or less. They'll improve on those stats. |
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12-12-21 | Nets v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 116-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Brooklyn OVER the total. The Nets play higher-scoring games on the road, than they do at home. Here, they will be facing a Detroit defense which ranks worst in the entire NBA, in terms of opposing teams field goal percentage. Opposing teams connect on 47.9% of their field goals against the Pistons. Note that the Pistons also rank worst in the East and second worst in the NBA, in terms of defending the 3-point shot. While Harden will receive a rare rest, that's not as big an issue as it would have been in past seasons. Expect Durant to dominate in his absence, the OVER moving to 4-1 in Detroit's December games. |
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12-12-21 | Fairfield v. William & Mary +8 | Top | 70-47 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY. The Stags have gotten off to a strong start. The Tribe has not. However, those results have provided us with an extra generous line for this afternoon's game. Consider that Fairfield was only a 1-point favorite, despite playing at home, the last time (2019) that these teams met. That was a close game, W&M eventually winning by four. With the Tribe off a 1-point game, I'm expecting another close one this afternoon. The Stags, 12-19 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, are just 6-9 ATS their last 15 as favorites. Note that all five of their road games have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Look for the Tribe to bring their best effort, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Flyers were severely short-handed when they faced the Warriors earlier this season. They also were on the road. Yet, despite being on the road and playing without the likes of Harris, Simmons or Emibiid, the 76ers took a 61-52 lead into halftime. While they couldn't keep it up in the second half, things are different this time. This time, the 76ers are at home, where the crowd can keep them engergized the whole way. Simmons remains out but Harris and Embiid are back. Needless to say, that's a huge difference. Not only does Embiid dominate but he gets the other team in foul trouble. Kerr sais this of Embiid: Playing against Joel is like going into a time machine,” said Warriors coach Steve Kerr. "It's like playing against Patrick Ewing or Shaq or Hakeem Olajuwon, it's a low post-game. He will step out and shoot 3s and run some DHOs and he's good with that, but he's one of the few guys in the league now who can dominate a game from the low block and they've done a great job with their roster. Putting a lot of shooting around him ... Doc Rivers does a great job just making you guard everyone, putting you in tough spots where you have to make decisions, and leave some people open potentially. So a very difficult cover and we definitely have our hands full." The Warriors won here last season (No Harris or Simmons for Philly) but they're long had trouble here. They're just 3-11 ATS their last 14 visits here. While the talk will be about Curry chasing the record, Embiid and the 76'ers will take this one. |
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12-11-21 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Xavier | Top | 63-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Musketeers have been playing well. After missing out for a few years, they should get back to the NCAA Tournament this season. I expect them to have their hands full with their crosstown rivals though. The Bearcats have lost two games. However, both losses came by six or less. They've since responded to those losses with a close win and then a bigger win. They're coming in confident and excited to play in this game. The Bearcats are off a down year and they lost by eight to Xavier. They're much stronger this season though and their new coach has them buying into what needs to be done, particularly on the defensive end. The Bearcats allow just 58.1 ppg. They hold opposing teams to a 35.3% field goal percentage. That's the fifth best in the entire country. The Musketeers are just 14-27-1 ATS their last 42, when laying points. The last two meetings were both decided by eight or less and Cincy won by 15, the year before that. Look for this one to come down to the wire, the Bearcats with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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12-10-21 | Vermont v. Brown OVER 126.5 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Vermont/Brown OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Bears' offense has gotten on track. They've scored at least 72 points in four straight games, the last three of which all finished above the total. Brown has only played three games with O/U lines in the 120s, the past 2+ seasons. All three of those games finished above the total. Going back further finds the OVER at 17-6 the past 23 times that Brown played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. On the season, the Bears are averaging 80 ppg at home. Vermont had trouble scoring against a fairly tough Providence team last game. However, the OVER is 7-2 the past 10 times that the Catamounts failed to score at least 60 points in their previous game. (One of those 10 games didn't have an O/U line but Vermont scored 81.) This has the makings of a close game; neither team is going to "stop trying" or go into "slow mode" to close the game. Look for the final combined score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
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12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's -9 | Top | 83-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. The Hawks should fare well in their conference. They're not going to be ready for the Red Storm though. The Storm switched up their lineup before last game and it resulted in a 14-point win over Fordham. To its credit, Monmouth has played well. However, the Hawks are starting to grow a little road weary and this is a strong St. John's team. Note that Monmouth is just 3-7 ATS its past 10, after playing its previous three games on the road. The Storm only has two losses. They came against Indiana (2-point loss) and Kansas. Neither game was when they were listed as the home team. Five of six wins came by nine or more. The Storm are averaging 85.2 ppg (2nd best in Big East) and connecting on better than 50% of their field goals. The Storm have scored 74 or more in every game. Ultimately, Monmouth, which is averaging less than 66 points over its past three games, won't be able to keep up. These teams haven't met since a 10-point win by the Storm eight years ago. Sticking with the same lineup that came through last game, expect another double-digit victory for St. John's. |
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12-09-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. This one sets up nicely for the Lakers. LA, which should have all of its big guns available, had yesterday off. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are off a hard-fought and emotional loss against the Mavericks. It was physical and close the entire way. I call it "emotional" as there were numerous technicals called and Dillon Brooks got ejected. The Grizzlies weren't happy with the officiating and complained afterwards. While all that was going on, the Lakers were waiting for them. Last night's loss snapped the Grizzlies' season high 5-game winning streak and brought an end to their positive momentum. Remember, this team is still without Morant, its best player. Note that the Grizzlies lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of b2b games. The Lakers beat Boston by 15 points last game. In their last road game, they beat Sacramento by 25. Their previous road game resulted in an 8-point win at Indiana. They're 27-15 ATS (31-11 SU) their last 42 road games, when the O/U line was 220 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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12-08-21 | Nets v. Rockets OVER 224.5 | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/Houston OVER the total. Two weeks ago, this would have seemed like a guaranteed Brooklyn victory. The Rockets' win on 11/24 was their first of the entire month. A funny thing happened though. That victory got them going and the Rockets have suddenly won six straight games. Now, they actually believe they can beat the Nets. That's particularly when they are catching them off a hard fought win, at Dallas, last night. While it remains to be seen whether or not the Rockets can keep winning, they should be able to keep scoring the entire game. During the 6-game streak, the Rockets are averaging more than 119 points. The Rockets defense remains among the worst in the league though. They allow 111.9 ppg. You know (former Rocket) Harden and co. are going to be putting up a big number. While the 'under' is profitable in Brooklyn games overall, the OVER is 9-3 when they face an opponent which allows more 108 or more points per game. Look for those stats to improve tonight. |
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12-08-21 | Evansville v. SE Missouri State +2 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on SE. MISSOURI STATE. These teams played a very close one, at Evansville, last season. Playing on their home floor, the Purple Aces ended up eking out an OT victory. (They won it by converting a 3-point play with 1-second remaining in OT.) With tonight's rematch being played on their home floor, I expect the Redhawks to return the favor. Note that the Purple Aces are an ugly 2-10 ATS their last 12, as road favorites. The Redhawks have many of the key players from last year's game. Eric Reed Jr. led the Redhawks with 16 point in last year's game. He's back and coming off a 33-point effort last time out. Last year's result should give the Redhawks confidence, as well as some added motivation for this one. Evansville is just 5-22 SU it last 27 road games. Expect the Redhawks to score the minor upset. |
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12-07-21 | Knicks v. Spurs OVER 212 | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/NY OVER the total. The Spurs saw last night's game at Phoenix sneak below the total. We're working with a lower O/U number tonight but I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring affair. San Antonio road games have been staying below the total all season. In fact, including last night's result, the 'under' is now 10-1-1 when the Spurs have played away from San Antonio. Entering last night, SA road games were averaging just 206.5 points. However, the complete opposite has been true in games played at the AT&T Center. Games here are averaging 225.5 points. That's nearly 20 ppg more than the Spurs' road games. The OVER is 7-1-2 here. There's a lot more to this play than just the venue. The Knicks aren't playing the same type of defense that they were last year. They were a top five defense last year. This year, they've been mediocre. Over their last four games, they're allowing 110.4 ppg and a high 47.9 field goal percentage. The last time that the Spurs played the second of b2b games, they combined with the Pacers for 249 points. Including that shootout, the OVER is 43-21-2 the past 2+ seasons, when SA has faced an Eastern Conf. opponent, 14-6-1 in games against teams from the Atlantic. With the OVER also 8-1-1 (or 9-1) the past 10 times that the Spurs hosted the Knicks, expect a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-07-21 | Jacksonville v. Georgia -9.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Dolphins are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Admittedly, the Bulldog had been struggling. However, they bounced back to beat Memphis in their last game. They were down at the break and rallied for the victory. That was what they needed and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win in this one. Note that Georgia beat this team by 33 points last December. This will be the Dolphins fourth time on the road in their last five games. They average a mere 55 points on the road. It doesn't help matters that guard Kevion Nolan has a banged-up knee. He's the team's best outside shooter and his status is day-to-day. However, regardless if he plays, it won't be enough. They may not win by 33 again but in the end, it'll be another double-digit win for the Bulldogs. |
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12-06-21 | Thunder v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/DET OVER the total. Neither of these teams are very good offensively. They're both pretty bad defensively too, though and this is a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Pistons aren't favored often but they find themselves in that role this evening. The only time that they were favored this season, the game finished above the total. The OVER is 18-12 their last 30 as favorites. Note that the Pistons allow opposing teams to connect on 47.9% of field goals. That's the worst mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Thunder just gave up 152 points in their last game. While the 'under' has been profitable in the Pistons' games against teams from the East, they've seen the OVER go 6-2 against teams from the West. Look for those stats to improve here. |
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12-06-21 | Columbia v. Colgate -20 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLGATE. This is a mismatch. The Raiders have quietly dominated the Patriot League over the past four years. They were 50-16 in league play, the past four seasons, 11-1 last year. They were second in the entire country last year, in terms of scoring. This year's team brought back four starters. On paper, it's arguably even stronger than last year. They've got talent, depth and experience. Poor Columbia. The last time that the Lions played on the road they lost by a score of 98-60. That was against an opponent (UMBC) which isn't as good as the one they'l face this evening. The score was 49-19 by halftime. While the Lions did bounce back from that beating. Their win came against the Maine Brown Bears. Also, note that they're just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12, after having covered the spread in their previous game. Overall, the Lions are 0-4 on the road. With Colgate 7-2 ATS its last nine home games, against teams which have won less than 40% of their road games, expect this one to result in a blowout. |
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12-05-21 | Pelicans v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/NO OVER the total. The Rockets have really found their scoring tough recently. They've scored a minimum of 118 points in four of their past five games. The Pelicans have scored 105 or more in four straight, averaging greater than 110 ppg during that span. The OVER is 18-12 the past couple of seasons, when they were off an upset win. Neither defense is good. While they've only played a couple, the Rockets are giving up 126 ppg in their divisional games, thus far. The OVER is 42-28 the past 70 times that NO was favored. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-04-21 | Celtics v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 145-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Portland UNDER the total. The Celtics are off a high-scoring game at Utah, last night. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening. Prior to last night's high-scoring game, the Celtics had been involved in three straight low-scoring games. They only scored 88 in two of those. This will be the fourth time, over the past month, that the Celtics will have played the second of b2b games. The first three of those had scores of 173, 179 and 216. The Blazers scored only 83 points, in getting upset by the Spurs last game. The UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Of course, it should also be mentioned that the Blazers will be without Lillard. Look for the UNDER to improve to 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a double-digit loss. |
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12-04-21 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -3.5 | Top | 73-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. It's been a tough start to the season for the Bengals. However, a visit from the Lumberjacks will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bengals' sub-par early resuls have helped keep this line lower than it otherwise could have been. Idaho State beat this team in both last season's games. Both games were at Northern Arizona, too. The Bengals brought all their starters back from last year and they match up well with this team. The Bengals are 13-9 ATS their last 22, when off a conference loss. Knowing that their next game will be diffcult (road game at Cal) expect the Bengals to dig deep and play their best game of the season. Lay the small number. |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 216.5 | Top | 96-118 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/Phoenix OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line for a game between these teams in recent memory. I believe it'll prove to be too low. These teams just played a low-scoring game against each other, at Phoenix. Booker went down with injury but the Suns won without him. With tonight's rematch being hosted by the Warriors and with the Suns playing the second of b2b games, I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring affair. Note that the last time that the Warriors were off a loss, they bounced back and scored 117 in their next game. They're going to want to push the pace in this one. Playing at home will allow them to be more effective in doing so. The Suns won but narrowly missed covering last night. The last time that the Suns played the second of b2b games, they combined with the Spurs for 226 points. The OVER is also 4-0 the past four times that they were off an ATS loss. While the recent meetings at Phoenix were low-scoring, these teams combined for 238 points the last time that they played here. That one finished above the total and I look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-03-21 | VMI v. Portland OVER 143 | Top | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on VMI/Portland OVER the total. This game will be played at a fast pace and will be a shootout. VMI is averaging 80 points so far this season. Nothing new. The Keydets and their "up-tempo, permiter-oriented offense" were among the nation's highest-scoring teams last year. The Keydets lost their top scorer but returned four other important part of their offense. Portland averages 86 ppg at home. The Pilots' new coach (Legans) was known for pushing the pace as a coach at Eastern Washington. He'll be happy to welcome the fast-paced, defensively-challenged Keydets. Excluding pushes, in games which had an O/U line, the OVER is 14-5 the past 19 times that VMI allowed less than 60 points in its previous game. Look for a high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Keydets were road underdogs. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2.5 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have gotten off to a tough start at the betting window. However, their games have been largely on the road. They're home now and this is the start of conference play, essentially a new season. The Bengals' non-conference ATS struggles have worked in our favor here, as the line is lower than it easily could have been. This is a very experienced Idaho State team, one which has been anxiously awaiting the start of Big Sky play. The Vikings are winless on the road, where they're averaging 57.5 ppg and hitting a mere 34.4% of their field goals. Granted, those two road games have come against tough opposition. Still, the Vikings have yet to show that they can shoot away from home. They're 8-19 SU on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Speaking of homecourt, the Vikings had the advantage of playing at home for both of last season's games against the Bengals. The teams split those games. Playing at home will help allow the Bengals the opportunity to dicate the tempo of the game. The Bengals believe that they can make some noise in the conference this season. Expect them to get things started with a win and cover. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks OVER 213 | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Chicago OVER the total. These teams played a pair of relatively low-scoring games against each other earlier. Both were at Chicago. I expect this evening's game, at MSG, to prove higher-scoring. Note that NY home games have been higher-scoring than NY road games. The Bulls offense has come to life recently. Last time out, they scored 133 points. That was at home. Last time they were on the road, the Bulls scored 123. The Knicks had been on an 'under' streak. However, they've since seen two of their last three games finish above the total. Last time out, they scored 110, while giving up 112. Chicago had the past couple of days off. Tonight will mark the first time, since early November, where the Bulls will have played with two day's rest in between games. The last time that they did so, they combined with Philadelphia for 219 points. That game finished above the number, bringing the OVER to 9-3 the past 12 times that the Bulls played with two day's rest in between games. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/OKC OVER the total. Off three straight wins, the Rockets have found their scoring touch. They've averaged 122 points during the "streak." The Thunder had trouble scoring in Monday's game, at Houston. It wasn't a case of the Rockets playing extra stingy defense. It was just poor shooting. Back home, they'll shoot much better. The Rockets allow 113 ppg on the road, allowing host teams to connect on 46.5% of their field goals. Those are not good numbers, in today's NBA. While the Thunder do score more points at home, than they do on the road, they allow just as many here. In other words, their home games have been higher-scoring than their road games. Despite that being the case, we're working with a lower O/U number than we were on Monday. Look for it to prove to be too low. |
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12-01-21 | Virginia Tech v. Maryland -1 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Hokies, they've lost two in a row and I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Of course, one could say that most of the time, when they face good teams on the road. They're 1-10 ATS their last 11 road games, when facing a team with a winning home record. With a 4-1 home record, the Terps certainly qualify. They're 31-8 here the past few seasons. Note that the Terps are 4-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. During that span, the Hokies were 0-2 ATS as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 9-16 ATS their last 25 in that situation. These teams haven't met for several years. However, the Terps dominated the most recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Look for the 1-point loss against Xavier to take a toll on the Hokies and for homecourt to prove the difference for the Terrapins. |
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11-30-21 | Warriors v. Suns -2 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Warriors have been on a remarkable run at the betting window. I say it comes to an end this evening. The Suns have been every bit as hot as the Warriors, arguably hotter. Golden State is 7-0 its last seven and 18-2 on the season. Phoenix is 17-3. However, since the Suns started 1-3, they've now won 16 straight. Indeed, this is a true clash of titans. Both teams have been excellent, at both ends of the floor. However, if one looks closely, the Suns' home numbers are slightly better than the Warriors' road numbers. Not only do they score more points at home than the Warriors do on the road, but the Suns hit a higher percentage of their field goals (48.4% to 46%) while holding visiting teams to 43%. When on the road, the Warriors allow a 43.6% field goal percentage. The Suns lost their last road game against the Warriors but won big the last two meetings here at Phoenix. Scores were 120-98 and 114-93. Obviously, the Suns haven't needed Thompson. However, they've got some other players banged-up right now, too. I say homecourt proves the difference and the Suns keep on rolling for another day. |
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11-30-21 | Clemson v. Rutgers -135 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on RUTGERS. While the Knights have struggled of late, I expect a date with Clemson to be just what they need to "get going." This is a very talented Rutgers team which hasn't been playing up to its potential of late. They lost three straight close ones, two of those coming on the road. The Tigers, a team they faced in the NCAA Tournament earlier this year, will bring out their best. You may recall that the NCAA Tourney game was very low-scoring. Rutgers won 60-56. With an O/U line in the mid 120's, this one figures to also be low-scoring. That should suit the Knights just fine. They're 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS their last seven home games, with an O/U line in the 120s. During that span, the Tigers are 2-4 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. In fact, the Tigers are just 6-12 ATS (5-13 SU) on the road, overall. While the Tigers' record is better than the Knights' record, keep in mind that this is the Tigers' first true road game of the season. Their two toughest opponents were St Bonaventure and West Virginia and the Tigers lost both. While the Tigers would love to get some revenge, its not happening tonight. Rutgers bounces back. |
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11-29-21 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 214.5 | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/OKC OVER the total. These teams played a couple of low-scoring games earlier but we're going to see plenty of points tonight. The Rockets have scored 118 and 146 their past two games. In their 146-143 victory, the Rockets and Hornets set an NBA record with 43-made (132 points) 3-point shots. The Rockets accounted for 23 of those. Sure, that game went to OT. However, there were still 266 points scored in regulation. The Rockets need to score a lot as they allow a lot of points. Their last 10 opponents have all hit triple-digits. Their 113.2 ppg allowed ranks fourth worst in the league. OKC is hungry for a win and the Rockets are suddenly clicking on offense. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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11-29-21 | Austin Peay v. TCU -15.5 | Top | 51-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. If looking at the Horned Frogs' 1-4 ATS record, it might be easy to think that they haven't been playing well. That's not the case though. The Frogs have won four of their five games and they've just narrowly missed out on the cover in three of their wins. Laying 22, they won by 16. Laying 13.5, they won by 13. Laying 11, they won by nine. In other words, they were a bucket or two away from covering. They didn't play well against Santa Clara, in their lone loss. However, I like how they responded in their win over Pepperdine. Back home and with a number of much tougher games coming up, I expect the Frogs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, in order to build up their confidence and momentum. They're catching Austin Peay at the right time. The Governors are at the end of a long 5-game road trip. It started way back on 11/12, with a 73-55 blowout loss at SUI. Now, more than two weeks later, they're finally at the end of the trip. I expect them to be a bit "road weary" and don't believe they'll have necessary energy to compete with the Frogs on their home floor. While the Frogs are 6-4 ATS their last 10, after failing to cover their previous three, the Governors are 1-3 ATS their last four road games, with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. I'm expecting a blowout. |
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11-28-21 | Fresno State v. California OVER 120.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fresno/Cal OVER the total. This was a really low O/U line to begin with and it came down from its opener. With all due respect to the defenses, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that the OVER is 12-4 the past few seasons, when Cal played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. One of those was when these teams last met, in 2019. The O/U line was 128.5. They combined for 132. The previous season, the O/U line was 143.5 for their game. They combined for 168. Again, we're working with an even lower number here. With Cal just 2-4 to start the season, note that Fresno has seen the OVER go 4-0 its past four against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Despite their poor record, the Bears are small favorites. Therefore, its worth noting that the OVER is 9-2 the past 11 times that they were favored. That includes a 4-0 mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. Going back further finds the OVER at a profitable 29-13 their last 42, in that role. As for the Bulldogs, they've seen the OVER go 12-3 after scoring less than 60 in their previous game. Both teams are looking to win this one and the scoring should continue the entire way. Expect a "relatively" high-scoring affair. |
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11-27-21 | Wizards v. Mavs OVER 209.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington OVER the total. The Wizards have been on an 'under' streak and they've been an 'under' team on the season. Last night, they combined with OKC for 202 points. That brought the 'under' to a profitable 13-6 in their games. However, there's been a situation where they haven't been a profitable 'under' team and that's when they've played the second of b2b games. This will be the third time that they played the second of b2b games. Both previous games finished above the total. Looking back a bit further finds that the OVER is 20-9 the past couple of seasons, when Washington was involved in the second of b2b games. Doncic returned for Dallas last game and now he's had a few day's off since. He'll be good to go. The Mavs' star scored 31 when these teams last met to lead all Dallas scorers. That game finished with 249 points, all of them coming in regulation. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-26-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. Jokic has missed the past few games and is currently questionable for this one. As he was close to being ready for the last game, I'm hopeful that he'll be good to go tonight. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Nuggets to bring their A game. A date with the defending champs is always a big deal. In this case, the Nuggets are also desperate to snap their losing streak. That's even more important, given the fact thay hit the road for a long trip, after this game. While I successfully backed the Bucks in their last game, that was at home against a tired Pistons team. Now, at a very difficult venue, they'll take on a rested Denver team. The Nuggets are 19-9 SU the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in six games against teams from the West. They're just 27-44 ATS against Western Conf. teams the past couple of seasons. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts +10.5 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORAL ROBERTS. Naturally, I respect OSU. While they lost Cunningham from last year's team, the Cowboys are still really strong. That said, this is a tough spot and I expect them to have their hands full. Its the day after Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are on the road. After a little break, they have a big game against Wichita State on deck. Those teams played a 3-point game last year. Speaking of close games, Oral Roberts always comes to play against these Cowboys. These teams met at OSU last year and the Cowboys won by only five. In fact, the same was true the previous season. OSU was laying double-digits in both games but the scores were 83-78 and 80-75. Abmas scored in double-digits in both games including a 33-point game last year. He's back and leading the Golden Eagles again. Oral Roberts is 6-1 ATS its last seven as an underdog and 17-6 ATS against winning teams, the past few seasons. Grab the points and expect another close one. |
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11-24-21 | Pistons v. Bucks -14 | Top | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pistons deserve some credit. They've really been fighting hard lately. However, hard fought losses can take a toll. Mentally and physically. Last night, in what is becoming a familiar routine, the Pistons were up on Miami. Though they hung on to cover, they blew the game. That's b2b very close losses. Both were games against good teams, which they could have won. Again, those type of defeats can be demoralizing. Now, off those "heartbreakers," they play their second game in two days and third in the past four. In fact, this is their eighth game since 11/12. That's a brutal schedule and the tough losses make it worse. The last six of those games were at home but that 8-game stretch started with a 20-point road losses. The Bucks had yesterday off. Prior to that, they'd had b2b "easy" games against the Magic. Last time out, they won by 31. They should be the far fresher team tonight. They already beat the Pistons by 28 in this season's earlier meeting. Expect another blowout. |
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11-24-21 | Sam Houston State v. SMU -14 | Top | 66-75 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on SMU. When these teams met last season, the Mustangs were favored by 17. They won by 30. This should prove to be another mismatch. The Mustangs haven't fared too well at the betting window, thus far. However, they've been close. In their first game, they won by 24, as a 28-point favorite. Next, they lost on the road at Oregon. No shame in that. They bounced back from that loss with a 47-point win, as a 20.5 point favorite. Then, they won by 17, laying 20. That was followed by an OT loss against Missouri. Off that tough loss, they stumbled again the next day. Now, off b2b losses, they're absolutely going to be in an angry mood. While the Mustangs have scored 70 or more in each of their last four games, the Bearkats have failed to hit the 60 mark in two of their last three. Last game, they managed a mere 55 points against Boston. They're 1-5 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to score 60 points. Expect the Mustangs to bounce back with a statement blowout. |
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11-23-21 | North Carolina-Asheville v. North Carolina OVER 154 | Top | 53-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC Asheville/UNC over the total. These instate foes use to meet fairly regularly. They haven't faced each other for 10 years though. The last meeting was in November of 2011. That game had an O/U line of 153.5 and finished with 166 points. I expect history to repeat itself. The Tar Heels have seen four straight games finish above the number. Those games had scores of 161, 177, 177 and 181. Even their first game, the lone one which stayed below the total, finished with 160 points. While its last game was low-scoring, UNC Asheville is an experienced team, capable of scoring. The Bulldogs scored 75 at UAB and followed it up with a 101-point effort. Defending is a different matter. In two games as a double-digit underdog, the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 87.5 points. Needless to say, the Tar Heels are capable of exceeding that average. Off b2b losses and with Michigan on deck, the Heels will absolutely be looking to put up a big number, too. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that UNC hosted a team with a losing road record. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-22-21 | TCU -1 v. Santa Clara | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. The Broncos are undefeated to start the season. I expect that to change Monday. Like Santa Clara, the Horned Frogs are undefeated. While the competition has been relatively weak, the Frogs have still taken care of business. Every win has come by double-digits. TCU is holding opposing teams to a field goal percentage of 33.5. That ranks among the best marks in the entire country. Entering the season, Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek was quoted as saying: "We're very much a work in progress with this group coming together." Facing the best defense that they've seen, I believe that we'll finally see some "growing pains" from Sendek's group tonight. |
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11-22-21 | Wichita State v. UNLV +4 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. Naturally, I respect the Shockers. In fact, I've already played on them this season. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying points. For starters, though technically a "neutral court affair," this game will be played in Vegas. Also, the Rebels are stronger than some might realize. They're only loss was last game against a very strong Michigan team. Additionally, the Shockers are off a tough OT loss against Arizona. Those type of defeats can be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Shockers are 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. The Rebels, who have already been involved in three very close games, are 7-0-1 ATS the past eight times that they were a "neutral court" underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points. |
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11-21-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -3 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. With or without Doncic, I like the Clippers in this one. If the Mavs do get their star back, he may be at less than 100%. He's pretty banged up. The return of a superstar can often also cause the rest of the team to experience a minor letdown. Off b2b losses, there won't be any letdown from the Clippers. The last time that the Clippers had lost two in a row was in late October. They immediately snapped the skid with a 5-point win. The Clippers also lost two in a row to start the season. Again, they stopped the bleeding right there, delivering a 30-point rout of the Suns. In those two "slump-busting" wins, the Clippers allowed just 86 and 94 points. Note that both LA losses came on the road. Last time here, the Clippers won by 14. Last time these teams met, the Clippers won by 15. Expect the Clippers to elevate their defensive intensity and bounce back with a win and cover. |
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11-20-21 | San Jose State v. Texas -27 | Top | 45-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. This is an absolute mismatch. The Spartans left it all on the floor last game. They came up a point short though, losing 67-66 at Cal Baptist. Now, off that tough loss and playing their third straight on the road, they take a big step up in class, as they face one of the top teams in the country. Note that SJSU is just 11-21 ATS (4-28 SU) its last 32, when facing a team with a winning record. The Longhorns bounced back from their loss to Gonzaga with a double-digit win. They allowed just 49 points. The Spartans, who have managed 66 and 62 their last two games, figure to have trouble scoring. Not Texas. The Longhorns scored more than 90 in their opener and they'll be looking to put up a crooked number in this one. Note that Texas is 9-5 ATS its last 14, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. Indeed, this should be one of the bigger blowouts on the board. I see Texas keeping the pedal to the medal the entire way and winning by more than 30. |
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11-19-21 | Warriors v. Pistons OVER 210 | Top | 105-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Detroit OVER the total. The Warriors have played low scoring games on their road trip, thus far. I expect that to change this evening, in the final game of the trip. The Warriors won at Cleveland last night. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they scored 127, combining with Atlanta for 240. The Pistons held the Pacers to just 89 points last game. However, before getting too excited about their defense, consider that the Pistons allowed more than 120 points in each of their previous two games. The last time that they allowed less than 100, their next game saw 249 points scored. Note that the Pistons only two games against Western Conf. teams have both finished above the number, most recently a 236 point game against the Kings. It should also be mentioned that opposing teams are hitting 48.2% of their field goals against the Pistons. That's the worst defensive field goal percentage in the NBA. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than expected. |
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11-19-21 | Hofstra v. Maryland -10.5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. Hofstra has been a force in the CAA for years. However, this is a tough spot. With Speedy Claxton taking over as head coach, the Pride switched their defense from zone to man-to-man. That may ultimately prove dividends. However, it's still a work in progress. They allowed 82 points last game and are allowing an average of 76. This Hofstra team has a lot of new faces and will take some time for everyone to learn to work together. Here, the Pride are playing their fourth straight road game. Off an 8-point loss at Iona, they're now taking a big step up in class. Indeed, this is a strong Maryland team. Off an upset loss, the Terps are going to be angry, too. Maryland coach Turgeon noted: "We have to be great on defense until we learn how to move the ball a little bit better...." Expect the Terps to elevate their defensive intensity, playing their best game and taking out their frustration on their outmatched road-weary guests. |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 220.5 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on San Antonio/Minnesota OVER the total. The Spurs managed only 92 points last game. The previous time that they failed to score triple digits was on 11/7, when they scored 94. They responded by scoring 136 in their next game. The T-Wolves are off a win against the Kings last night. The previous time that they played the second of b2b games was on 11/13. Off a low-scoring win on 11/12, they proceeded to allow 129 points, the 11/13 game finishing above the number by double-digits. We're barely past the middle of the month and Minnesota has allowed 115 or more points five times in November, 123 or more four times. Excluding pushes, the Spurs have seen the OVER go 60-40 the past 100 times that they were off three or more consec. losses, 15-8 the past 23. Catching the Wolves in a b2b spot, they'll look to push the pace tonight. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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11-17-21 | Kings v. Wolves OVER 223.5 | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sacramento/Minnesota OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Kings' last game. The Kings scored 129 points and the final score finished above the number by 20 points. I expect the Kings to carry their scoring touch into this evening's game. These teams have a recent history of high-scoring games against each other. Consider that their last two meetings (both last April) had O/U lines in the 240s. Yet, even those lines weren't high enough. The teams combined for 253 and 254 points. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower O/U number here. While they're off a low-scoring game against the Suns, the T-Wolves have allowed 123 or more points in four of their last seven games. The last two times that they failed to score 100 points, they saw their next game finish with scores of 241 and 243. Sacramento road games are averaging more than 227 points and the OVER is already 4-1 when they've played a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-17-21 | Northern Iowa v. Arkansas -13.5 | Top | 80-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. While I respect the Panthers, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in either of their first two games. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that they're ready to put it all together en route to their first victory at the betting window. Arkansas won't be caught off guard: Coach Musselman noted this of Northern Iowa: "They're an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. They were banged up injury-wise their first two games. They'e now back healthy. … We better bring our A-game ... " I expect his team to listen and for them to be ready. While Musselman may be right that the Panthers will end up pretty good, they're not there yet and they won't be ready for what they encounter here. Yes, they are getting their players back from injury, as Musselman noted. However, this is no place to try and "work out the kinks." Note that the Panthers are 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. While they may not have been covering, the Razorbacks have still been playing well and winning comfortably. With K-State on deck, they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. |
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11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Shockers have been tested in winning their first two games. They failed to cover in either. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that the Shockers are ready to put it all together with a more lopsided victory. Wichita State's schedule gets considerably more difficult after this. The Shockers have a mix of quality veterans (Etienne, Udeze, Dennis) and young talent. Coach Brown knows the young players will benefit from a blowout win and gain much needed confidence for the more difficult upcoming games. The Texans know all about tough games. They began their season by playing at Stanford. Then, things got even tougher for them with a game at Kansas. (To their credit, the Texans did "relatively" well. They lost by 12 and 26.) Still, they've already had to travel to the West Coast and back and now they're playing their third straight very difficult road game. I expect it to catch up with them. Shockers keep the pedal to the metal and win going away. |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 220 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/GSW OVER the total. The last meeting between these teams produced 251 points. Curry led all scorers with 27 points. Durant had 20, one of six Brooklyn players to score 14 or more. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Warriors managed only 102 points in their loss at Charlotte. That was fine by me, as I had a big play on the Hornets. That wasn't "normal" for Curry and co. though. In their previous five games, the Warriors had scored 119, 123, 127, 120 and 126. I expect them to bounce back with a much better offensive effort. They'll need to. Not only have the Nets scored at least 125 each of the last three meetings but they're also currently putting up big numbers. Over their past three games, the Nets have scored 120, 120 and 123 points. While those were on the road, note that the OVER is 3-0 when the Nets played their previous three on the road. This is just the second time that the Warriors were underdogs this season. The first finished above the number with 235 points. Expect this one to be played at a fast pace, the final combined score finishing above the number. |
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11-15-21 | Nuggets v. Mavs -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Nuggets pounded Dallas, at Denver, on 10/29. At the time, the Mavs were off a game the previous night. The Nuggets were playing with two day's rest in between games. I took advantage of the situation and released a big play on Denver. The Nuggets won 106-75. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. This time, the Mavs are the home team. This time, the Mavs are the team playing with two day's rest. This time, the Nuggets are the team playing the second of b2b games. This time, I expect the revenge-minded Mavs to take advantage of the situation. The Mavs put it all together last time out, a double-digit win at San Antonio. They also won their last home game by double-digits. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to get some payback. |
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11-14-21 | Warriors v. Hornets +5.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Needless to say, the Warriors have gotten off to a great start. That's been mostly due to their strong play. However, they've also benefitted from playing the majority of their games at home. This will be just their fourth road game, their first against an Eastern Conference opponent. Note that the Warriors are just 7-14 SU/ATS their last 21, against teams from the Southeast. Its also worth mentioning that the Warriors have a date with the Nets (and former teammate Durant) on deck. Off to their hot start and with that game on deck, it would be easy to look past Charlotte. The Hornets are playing well themselves though and they're off b2b victories. They're right behind the Warriors (#1 and #2 in the league) in terms of points scored per game. In fact, the Hornets' 118.2 ppg average here at home, is #1 in the NBA. (GS averages 115.3 on the road.) The Hornets beat the Warriors by two here last season. Playing with revenge from last week's road loss, look for them to give their guests all they can handle, once again. |
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11-13-21 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 213.5 | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Indiana OVER the total. The Pacers are off a fairly long road trip, those road games against Western Conf. teams staying below the total. Those results were among the factors keeping the total down. Then, the O/U line came down still further from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with excellent value. The 76ers have seen their last two games produce 227 and 224 points. While the OVER is 11-7 the past couple of seasons when the 76'ers had played their previous three or more at home, the OVER is also 12-7 when the Pacers had played their previous three on the road. Look for those stats to improve and for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13 | Top | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on BELMONT. I won with the Purple Aces in their last game. However, now they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Belmont is a quality team, a major step up in class from the team (IUPUI) which Evansville just faced. The Bruins have been invited to the postseason 14 of the past 16 years, going to the NCAA Tournament in nine of those. Last season, the Bruins finished with 26 wins. Entering Selection Sunday, they were tied with Gonzaga for the most wins in the country. This year's team essentially brought back everyone from last year's team, too. These teams met last season, at Evansville. The Bruins won by nine. Four Belmont players (Wood, Smith, Muszynski, Murphy) scored in double-digits. All four are back. However, it was Ben Sheppard who led the way with 25 points in the Bruins' first game. The fact that Evansville won and covered last game, while Belmont lost its only game, has helped to keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS their last five, after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 5-0 ATS after allowing 90 or more in their previous game. Expect an angry Belmont team to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. |
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11-12-21 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 223.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/Houston OVER the total. Don't expect to see much defense in this one. Even without Lillard putting up his usual number,s the Blazers are still averaging a healthy 110.1 ppg. After complaining about the way the rules are being called, Lillard will be looking to put up big numbers tonight. He may also get a few more calls than he's been getting. Either way, the entire Portland team will enjoy facing a porous Houston defense. The Rockets are allowing 111.3 ppg on the season, 113.8 ppg over their last five. Opposing teams hit 47% of their field goals in those games. Portland's last two games have produced 226 and 228 points. Houston's last two games have finished with 227 and 226. The last time the teams faced each other, they combined for 269. They already had 142 by halftime. The OVER is a profitable 127-87 over the years, when the Rockets are on a losing streak of three or more games. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-12-21 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana -22.5 | Top | 49-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Huskies have a very difficult non-conference schedule. Those tough games were designed to get them ready for conference play, not with the thought of actually winning them. Somehow, NIU managed to win the first of them, an upset at Washington. However, this is an even stronger opponent and the Huskies won't be catching anyone by surprise, this time. I like the fact that Indiana was tested but prevailed in its first game. That will serve as a wake-up call. As for the Huskies big win, they're 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off a SU win and 0-5-1 ATS their last six, when off a cover. With a new coach, they're still going to go through some early growing pains. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -18.5 to -24 range, 25-15 ATS (40-0 SU!) the past 40. Expect a one-sided blowout. |
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11-11-21 | Pacers v. Jazz OVER 219 | Top | 111-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Indiana OVER the total. These teams combined for 230 points when they last met. Yet, that wasn't enough to finish above the O/U line of 234. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number this evening. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Catching the Pacers off a game in high altitude last night and at the end of a 4-game road trip, the Jazz will look to push the pace tonight. Note that the OVER is 12-6 the past couple of seasons, when Indiana played its previous three on the road. With Jokic out, the Pacers were small favorites last night. Having lost that game, also note that the OVER is 20-11 their last 31, when off an upset loss. Both teams can shoot. Utah hits better than 47% of its field goals at home, while Indiana makes better than 47% of its field goals on the road. I expect the Jazz, who are still averaging a respectable 214.3 points at home, to put up a big number and for the Pacers to chip in enough of their own to send this game over the relatively low total. |
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11-11-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Evansville -12 | Top | 40-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on EVANSVILLE. I believe that this will prove to be a mismatch. The Purple Aces have a lot going for them. They match up well against this team, they're playing at home and they're considerably more experienced, entering the season. While their record still wasn't great, the Purple Aces were a much improved team last season. That was with a new coach and a young team. Now, their coach is in his second year and four of five starters returned. This is a team on the rise. Yet, Evansville knows that wins won't be easy in its competitive conference. It needs to take advantage of opportunities like this one. That's particularly true with the Aces off a loss at Cincinnati and with a tough road game, against an experienced Belmont team, on deck. IUPUI is excited to have a new coach of its own. That said, the Jaguars, who are off yet another sub-500 year, lost last season's top three scorers. Crenshaw may have once been a hero, as a player, at the school, but he can't be expected to work miracles overnight. Expect Evansville to pull away with a comfortable double-digit win. |
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11-10-21 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/GSW OVER the total. This is a relatively low O/U number line. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Due in part to the way they're now calling the rules, it's true that Golden State games have been lower-scoring this season. That's the main reason why this O/U line is considerably lower than it was when these teams played last year. Still, in this case, they've gone too far. When these teams last met, the O/U line was 235.5. They combined for 240. Five of the past seven meetings have finished above the number. The Warriors have started to find their groove. They've scored 120 or more in three straight. They'll face a Minnesota team which has allowed 125 or more in two of its last three. While Minnesota's last game went to OT, there were still 226 points score in regulation. With the Wolves having lost that one, a painful defeat as they were up big in the fourth, note that the OVER is 26-18 the past couple of seasons, when they were off three or more consec. losses. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-10-21 | Detroit v. Wyoming UNDER 155 | Top | 47-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit Mercy / Wyoming UNDER the total. When these teams met in November of 2019, the O/U line was only 131. They combined for just 125. We're working with a considerably higher O/U number this evening. While I respect these offenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Titans are better than they were two years ago, as they started to turn the cornder midway through last season. That said, they've got a number of new transfers and its going to take some time to get back to where they were. Wyoming led the Mountain West in points scored last year. While the Cowboys will again be dangerous, coach Linder has emphasized improved defense in his second season. Linder's Northern Colorado defenses were generally stingy and he expects improvement on that side of the ball. Detroit has seen the UNDER go 11-6 in non-conf games the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 8-2 when Wyoming played in the month of November. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/LA OVER the total. These teams played a couple of relatively low-scoring games against each other to start the season. While we're now working with a lower O/U line, I'm expecting a higher-scoring affair tonight. The Clippers scored 120 last game and have scored 120 or more in two of their last three. The Blazers have had the past two nights off. The only previous time that they played with 2-days rest in between games, they dropped 134 points on the Suns, their best offensive effort of the season. Including that result, the OVER is 14-9 the past 2+ seasons, when Portland played with two day's rest in between games. During that span, the OVER is also 46-33 when the Blazers faced a team with a winning record. While I mentioned that this season's earlier meeting here was low-scoring, last season's two games here had scores of 233 and 249. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-09-21 | Pepperdine v. Rice -5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on RICE. The Owls have gotten stronger each of the past few seasons and this should be their best team yet. Last year started shakily, injuries taking a toll. However, by the end of the season, the Owls were playing their best. They made it to the C-USA semis and posted their first winning season in the past several years. Now, hungry to build off that and to get off to a fast start, they bring back every starter from that team. Unlike their hosts, the Waves lost a couple of key players from last year's team. Not only did Pepperdine lose Kessler Edwards to the NBA, but point guard Colbey Ross is also gone. He's Pepperdine's all-time scoring AND assists leader. In fact, he was the first Div 1 player to score 2200 or more points, while adding 800 assists and 400 rebounds. Needless to say, those two will be missed. While Pepperdine is still going to be solid, I feel that the Owls, who have been money in recent home games, will have the advantage out of the gate. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets have been won three of their four home games but have been having trouble covering the big pointspreads. That's not an issue for tonight's game though. While the Heat are tough, this is a difficult venue. Denver is 55-23 here the past couple of seasons. The Nuggets beat Miami 123-106 in last year's game here. Jokic had a triple-double, one of six Denver players to score in double-figures. After that game Miami coach Erik Spoelstra noted: "They're a unique team, the way they pass the ball, the way they cut off the ball. They really make you have to concentrate and trust what you do for the entire possession. They were able to exploit a few of those things against us in the second half.'' Look for homecourt to prove significant. |
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11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 221 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/GSW OVER the total. With the Rockets off a Saturday game in high altitude, the Warriors will look to push the pace. The Warriors scored 126 last time out and will look to build on that. Note that Houston has allowed 119 or more in three of its past five games. With the Warriors a big favorite, there's the potential of a blowout. However, even if the game does go that way, both teams should be happy to keep scoring. Note that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that the Houston was a road underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. The Warriors won 125-109 the last time that they hosted the Rockets. Expect a similar final combined number of points this evening. |
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11-06-21 | Jazz v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. These are two good teams and both have gotten off to strong starts. They'll meet again at Utah in a week. Armed with that knowledge and knowing they hit the road after this, I expect the Heat to hold serve at home this evening. The Heat lost last time out. Off their only previous loss, they responded with a 17-point win in their next game. They're 19-12 ATS (23-9 SU) the last couple of seasons, when off an upset loss. They're also 5-1 ATS their last six, after scoring 105 or less. The Jazz have been playing quite a few road games to start the season and they play again tomorrow night. Miami gets tomorrow night off. The home team won and covered both meetings last season. More of the same this evening. |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. I like how this one sets up for the home team. While the Pistons had last night off, the 76ers were involved in a hard-fought game against the Bulls. That was on the heels of wins against Portland and Atlanta. Off those big wins and now playing their third game in four days, their fourth game in six days, it should be easy for the 76ers to go through the motions against the Pistons. Keep in mind that Philadelphia also has the Knicks on deck, the team which handed them their most recent loss. All the more reason to look past tonight's game. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the 76'ers are still playing at way less than 100%. The absences should catch up with them in this b2b spot. The Pistons already played the 76'ers tough at Philadelphia and they scored an upset the last time the teams met here. Don't be surprised when it happens again. |
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11-03-21 | Hawks v. Nets OVER 217.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Brooklyn OVER the total. This is a relatively low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Both teams are off one of their best offensive games of the season. The Hawks scored 118 vs. Washington. The Nets scored 117 against Detroit, despite Durant getting ejected. Really, Brooklyn could have scored much more, if it needed to. The Nets shot at a ridiculously high percentage but the scoring dried up in the fourth, with the game turning into a blowout. The Hawks, of course, are much better than the Pistons. This one should remain competitive the entire way. The last three meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 238, 244 and 240. Three of the last four meetings finished with 259 or more points. (One of those was a game here where they combined for 286, all in regulation.) The last time they played each other they combined for 260. While 28 of those points did come in OT, they still had 232 in regulation. Including that 132-128 loss, the Hawks have seen the OVER go 26-18 the past couple of seasons, when facing teams from the Atlantic Division. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Houston OVER the total. These teams just played a low-scoring game against each other a couple of nights ago. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower O/U line tonight. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Rockets aren't going to be very good defensively this season. I expect the Lakers to put up a much bigger number than they did Sunday night. The Rockets should do the same. LA games are still averaging 224.6 points. All three meetings last season finished with 217 or more. The one here at LA finished with 246. Look for the shooting to improve and for the OVER to move to 6-3-1 the past 10 times that LA was off a game where it had allowed 90 or fewer points. |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. I really like how this one sets up for the Hawks. They're at home. (They're 2-0 SU/ATS here on the season, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.5 to 95.5.) They had yesterday off. They have tomorrow off. They're angry after getting blown out at Philadelphia on Saturday. They're also still mad from having lost at Washington, to these same Wizards, on Friday. The Wizards had yesterday off. However, they played a double-OT game on Saturday and this is still their fourth game in six days. The Wizards were fortunate that the Celtics were just 2-of-26 from beyond the arc Saturday night. The revenge-minded Hawks will shoot a lot better than that. They're 49-30-1 ATS here the past couple of seasons. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214.5 | Top | 91-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Brooklyn OVER the total. The Nets have seen all their games stay below the total so far. Those results have helped to provide us with a relatively low total. Consider that the O/U line was 225.5 the last time the Pistons visited here. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number today. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Nets know that the Pistons played yesterday. Facing a team playing its second game in two days, Nash's team will look to push the pace. I expect Brooklyn to put up a big number. The Pistons' offense has gotten going. After failing to hit 100 points in the first two games, the Pistons have hit triple-digits in three straight. They scored 110 last night. Expect the OVER to improve to 7-3 the past 10 times that they were road underdogs of more than a dozen points. |
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10-30-21 | Cavs v. Suns -9.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Cavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. They played a late game at LA last night. They challenged Lebron and co. into the fourth quarter; it was a hard-fought game. The Cavs had a 1-point lead with 8-mins remaining. In the end, it was a potentially demoralizing 113-101 setback. Note that the Cavs are just 22-41 ATS the past few years when off a double-digit loss. During that span, they're also 5-15 ATS after playing their previous three on the road. Off last night's tough loss, they're now playing their third road game in the past four days. They'll face a well-rested Phoenix team which is angry about its slow start. The Suns are 21-13 ATS their last 34, when off an upset loss as a favorite. They beat the Cavs by 16 the last time the teams faced each other. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect another blowout. |
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10-29-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 75-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. As of this writing, Jokic is questionable. Obviously that's a big deal and the line reflects that. While it would obviously be great if he plays, I won't rely on the Nuggets star being in there. Given the setup, I expect the Nuggets to win, with or without him. The Nuggets have had the past couple of days off, which helps. The Mavs, on the other hand, are off a hard fought win last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. They've got their own potential injury issues, too. Porzingis missed last night and remains questionable. Doncic continues to lead the way but he's also turning the ball over, quite a lot. He had seven turnovers in last night's game. The Nuggets got upset in their last game here and they hit the road for three after this. They're still 53-23 here the past 2+ seasons and they're also 17-8 (SU) the past 25 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Schedule in their favor, expect the Nuggets to get it done. |
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10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 122-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Houston OVER the total. This O/U line has come down a bit from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. The Rockets like to play at a quick pace. They're a young team that fires at will. While they've got some decent offensive players, the Rockets are going to have real trouble defending a team like Utah. The Jazz scored 122 against a much better defensive team (Denver) in their last game. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 240 points. Including that 124-116 win, the OVER is 23-15 when Utah has faced teams from the Southwest, the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Naturally, I respect the Hawks. Young is already a great player and Atlanta has surrounded him with a solid supporting cast. Still, the Hawks are 0-1 on the road and they're dealing with some injuries. Their only previous road game resulted in an outright loss, at Cleveland, as an 8-point favorite. While the Pelicans are without Zion Williamson, they've gotten better each time out. Their first game was a loss here against the 76ers. They played them tough for the first half but got blown out in the second, losing by 20. Next, was a 16-point loss at Chicago. That was followed by a 7-point loss, as they eked out their first cover. Last time out, the Pelicans played their best game and won 107-98, at Minnesota. The Hawks play tomorrow, the Pelicans do not. With the Hawks 0-4 ATS their last four as a road favorite, grab the points with the Pelicans. |
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10-25-21 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 213 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Atlanta OVER the total. The Pistons had trouble scoring against the Bulls. I expect them to have more success against the Hawks. Last season's two meetings here produced 248 and 238 combined points. Going back further finds the OVER at 10-1 the Pistons' last 11 visits here. Six straight meetings have produced a minimum of 233 points. The Pistons have seen the OVER go 13-8 the past couple of seasons, after allowing 100 points or less. During the same span, the OVER is also a profitable 28-14 after they scored 100 or fewer points in their previous game. The Hawks have scored a minimum of 108 points in 18 straight regular season home games, hitting triple digits in 25 straight. Expect them to put up a fairly big number once again, the Pistons contributing enough of their own to put the final combined score above the low total. |
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10-24-21 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 215 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/NY UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Orlando's first game. The young Magic were facing a young Spurs team and I expected a relatively fast pace. In their next game, the Magic played these same Knicks, at Orlando. That game also finished above the total. That result has helped lead to a higher O/U line for tonight's rematch. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Orlando's last two visits here had scores of 94-93 and 91-84. Going back further finds the UNDER at 6-0-1 the last seven times that these teams faced each other here. All seven games s finished with 211 or fewer combined points. While their first game here was high-scoring, the Knicks have still seen the UNDER go 41-31 at home, the past couple of seasons. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-22-21 | Pelicans v. Bulls OVER 221 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/Chi OVER the total. These teams both saw their first game stay below the total. That's helped keep this number a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Pelicans have seen the OVER go 15-5 their last 20 games against teams from the Central. Last season's two meetings between these teams had scores of 252 and 245. Those O/U lines were both in the 230s. We're working with a considerably lower number this evening. While the Bulls limited the Pistons to just 88 points, the OVER is 75% the past couple of seasons, when they held their previous opponent to less than 90 points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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10-20-21 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 212.5 | Top | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/SA OVER the total. This is the lowest total on the board. I believe it'll prove to be too low. These are both young teams. The Spurs are a lot younger than they've been and the Magic are even younger than they are. That doesn't mean we won't see points though. The Spurs were shooting considerably more 3-pointers in preseason than they did in recent years with Aldridge here. They've got a number of players who can connect from downtown and should have success against the Magic tonight. They scored 120 against the Magic last time the teams faced each other. That 120-97 final snuck over the total of 216.5. I'm expecting more points tonight, yet we're working with an even lower O/U number. Including that result, the Magic have seen the OVER go 36-23-1 their past 60 non-conf. games, including 15-4-1 against teams from the Southwest. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Spurs have seen the OVER go 39-18-1 against Eastern Conf. teams. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks -200 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing MILWAUKEE on the ML. The Bucks have seized control of this series. I've backed them in each of their three victories. So, I'm not entirely surprised. In each of the previous three cases, I played the Bucks on the pointspread. Two of those wins were relatively easy. In the other, (Game 4) I felt a bit fortunate. The Bucks are now playing with confidence. Their physical play is wearing down the Bucks. Giannis is benefitting from the two days rest in between each game and playing unselfish, smart basketball. Middleton goes through stretches where he can't miss. Holiday has been outstanding defensively the whole way and last game he contributed 27 points and 13 assists. His steal in the closing seconds potentially saved the game. While I do absolutely like the Bucks to cover the spread once again, I also can't help but remembering how close the last game here was. The final score was 109-103 and it felt closer than that. The last game, too, for that matter. Not having to worry about having to cover any points is a luxury, in this case, which I'm willing to pay for. The Bucks smell the blood in the water. One way or another, they'll get it done. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. With the home team boasting a 4-0 SU/ATS record so far, it would be easy to make a case for the Suns. I'm not trying to make an easy case though. I just want to win and I feel that the value lies with the road team. Here are some reasons why. The Suns squandered a golden opportunity in Game 4. That one was theirs for the taking. Booker had a huge game and Giannis did not. Yet, the Bucks still found a way to get the win and cover. Having to win when Giannis was either out of the lineup entirely, or when he's not having a dominant game, has helped the Bucks. They've learned that they can win without him. Middleton has shown that he can be the guy and the Bucks confidence has grown as a result. I also like that they play with two day's rest in between games again. Giannis will benefit from the extra day. Note that the Bucks are now 12-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Suns are just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. While the finals may be new for them, the Bucks have paid their dues in recent seasons. They've been tied in a series a lot more times than the Suns have the past few years and I believe that their playoff experience will serve them well in this critical game. While I like Milwaukee's chances of an outright win, I could also see this one being decided right at the buzzer. Grab the points and look for the Bucks to move to 6-2 ATS their last eight, when tied in a playoff series. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 59 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks showed that they were far from done on Sunday. Off that convincing win, their confidence restored, I expect them to "bring their best" once again on Wednesday. Its been my feeling that the Bucks play a lot better, after they know they can beat a team. Prior to Sunday, they'd lost every game this season to Phoenix. Now, however, the Bucks know they can beat this team. I mentioned that the loss of Saric hurt the Suns' depth. The Bucks also now have a blueprint for success - get Ayton in foul trouble. The Bucks are now 8-1 in their home playoff games. The last five of those wins came by 11, 15, 34, 11 and 20 points, all double-digit wins.The Bucks know that they're still essentially in "must win" territory. They can't afford to go down 3-1. Expect them to dig deep and come away with another critical win and cover. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Down 0-2, obviously, the Bucks desperately need this one. As impressive as the Suns have been, I'm not writing off Milwaukee yet. Antetokounmpo had this to say: "I think no matter what we say, we know what the deal is. It's as simple as that. We've got to go back home and do our job. They did their job. We've got to do our job. We've been here before and we were able to get the job done. Hopefully we can put ourselves in position and we can believe in one another and we can play together and we can have fun. We can compete and we can dive on the floor, we can make shots, put ourselves in a position to win the game. But, like, we know what the deal is, man. We got to go back home and protect home." The Suns lost some depth last game, as Saric is out for the series. Also, Torrey Craig went down and is questionable. The Bucks are 7-1 their last eight home playoff games. The last four of those wins came by 11, 15, 34 and 11 points, all double-digit wins. Expect them to dig deep and come away the critical win and cover. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Phoenix UNDER the total. After Game 1 finished above the number, we're working with a higher O/U line for Game 2. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Not only is the UNDER 20-8-1 the past 29 times that the Bucks had seen their previous three games finish above the total, but the UNDER is also a perfect 5-0 in these playoffs when the Bucks were trailing in a series. Most recently, after dropping Game 1 in the Atlanta series, the Bucks held the Hawks to 91 points in Game 2. In the Brooklyn series, after dropping Game 1, the Bucks managed only 86 points in Game 2. They also lost that one, putting them down 2-0. Games 3 and 4 saw only 169 and 203 points scored. The Bucks also found themselves down 3-2 in the Brooklyn series. Game 6 saw only 193 points scored. So, the UNDER is 5-0 when the Bucks were down in a series, most of those games falling well below the number. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Phoenix UNDER the total. These teams are here because of their defense. The Bucks have allowed an average of 103.7 points per game in the playoffs. The Suns are allowing an average of 101.9 ppg in the playoffs. Overall, Milwaukee playoff games are averaging 213.5 points while Phoenix playoff games are averaging 210.8. The Suns haven't played in awhile. The UNDER is 8-4 the last 12 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. There could easily be some early rust; when they last had a gap between their games, after the Denver series before facing LA, the Suns scored only 21 points (21-21) in the first quarter. Dating back to the regular season, the UNDER is 21-11-1 the past 32 times that the Bucks faced a team with a winning record. Expect those stats to improve Tuesday. |
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07-03-21 | Bucks +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Hawks have enjoyed a great run but I believe it comes to an end tonight. As of this writing, Young is questionable while Giannis is doubtful. While this may not prove to be the case, my guess that Young plays and Giannis doesn't. Young may not be 100% if he does play though and the Bucks have also shown that they can still be a strong team without Giannis. Last game was one of their best. Also, recall their lone win against the Heat last year. That was the game Giannis got hurt. He'd play only 11 minutes or so. Yet, Middleton stepped up and scored 36 and Milwaukee did something it hadn't been able to do when it's star was on the floor. Note that they're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14, when leading in a playoff series and that the Bucks smell the blood in the water tonight. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, knowing a date with Phoenix awaits, I see the Bucks improving on those stats tonight. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks OVER 215 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Milwaukee OVER the total. Injuries are the talk of the game. They've been happening to many teams during these playoffs though. For the most part, the remaining players have stepped up and filled the void. I expect that to be the case tonight. Sure, the Hawks defense was dominant last game. Still, the OVER is 3-0 when the Hawks had allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Last time they allowed less than 90, the Hawks' next game had a score of 128-124. Remember, prior to last game, the Bucks had scored 113 or more in four straight. Look for them to bounce back with a much better offensive effort, leading to the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 214.5 | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/LA OVER the total. After a few low-scoring games, the offenses finally got going a bit, enough to send Monday's game over the number. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair this evening. Considering that the first game, one which finished with 234 points, had an O/U line of 220, we're working with a relatively low-number. Remember, Phoenix road games average 222 points. LA home games average 223. The last time that the Suns were off a double-digit home loss was back on 4/17; they got blown out by the Spurs. They went on the road (at Milwaukee) for their next game and saw it produce 255 combined points, finishing ove the number by 20+. Off Monday's rare double-digit home loss, the Suns still with a chance to close things out and the Clippers still fighting to stay alive, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Atlanta UNDER the total for the first half. Don't be surprised if this one gets off to a relatively slow start. This is just the second time in these playoffs that the Hawks were trailing in a series. The previous time saw their game finish with a score of 103-100. That was Game 4 against Philadelphia. At the time, it was the lowest-scoring game of that series. Atlanta managed only 20 points in the first quarter. Both the Hawks and the Bucks have been profitable 'under' teams through the playoffs overall. Game 4 of the Bucks/Nets was the lowest-scoring of that series. They had 101 at halftime, despite the first half total being listed at 117.5. Look for this one to also stay below the first half number. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Phoenix OVER for the first half. These teams played higher-scoring games here at Phoenix, than they did at LA. With the series shifting back to the desert, I'm expecting a relatively fast start, in terms of scoring. Keep in mind that the first game of the series opened with a first half O/U line of 112.5. Though that number came down right before tipoff, the closing number was still considerably higher than the low total we're working with today. (The teams would combined for 111 in that game.) The Suns have seen the OVER go 4-1 after allowing less than 90 points. Likewise, the Clippers have seen the OVER go 4-1 after allowing less than 90. The last time that the Clippers allowed less than 90, their next game (6/2 vs. Dallas) saw 110 first half points scored. (It slowed down in the second half.) I say this one gets off to a fast start, too. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA for the first half. Both games in Milwaukee saw the Bucks take the lead into the locker-room. In the opening game, the Bucks were up 59-54 at the break. Atlanta came back to win 116-113. Last game, the Bucks jumped all over the Hawks and were up 77-45 by halftime. Off that beating and now back home for the first time in the series, I expect a much stronger start from Trae Young and the Hawks. The last time that the Hawks were off a loss, they responded by winning the first half (at Philadelphia on 6/20) by a score of 48-46. In the NY series, the Hawks won the first game and lost the second. For Game 3, they returned home and were up big (58-44) by halftime. In the Philly series, the Hawks won Game 1 and lost Game 2. They ended up getting blown out when they returned home for Game 3. However, they were still close at halftime. Lets not forget that the Hawks' home record is better than the Bucks' road record. Trae Young noted: "...I've got to do better, and I will do better next game." The Atlanta star added: "It's exciting being able to go back home. We wanted to steal one on the road. We did that. So now (we get) to go home and play in front of our fans in the Eastern Conference Finals. It's going to be loud. It's going to be a lot of people there. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to just going out there and having fun and playing in front of all our Atlanta fans." Energized by the home crowd, expect the Hawks to come out firing, en route to their best "first half" of the series. |
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06-26-21 | Suns -114 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Analysis to follow |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting upset in the opener, the Bucks are essentially in must-win mode. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The last time that the Bucks lost, they responded with a 15-point win in their next game. They're 47-15 SU and 38-24 ATS their past 62, when off an upset loss. The Hawks are 2-3 ATS when leading a playoff series, 11-21 ATS in that situation over the years. After they won Game 1 at MGS, they lost Game 2 by nine. After they stole Game 1 at Philadelphia, they lost Game 2 by 16. Look for the Bucks to be all business in this one, evening the series and picking up the cover along the way. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Milwaukee UNDER the total. Though I won with the 'over' in the Bucks' last game, I feel that tonight's O/U line will prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Milwaukee playoff games are averaging only 211.2 points. Atlanta playoff games have been even lower-scoring, averaging 210.2 points. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 229.5 but finished with just 215. The Bucks have seen the UNDER go 10-5 the past 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games while the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 7-2 their last nine, when playing with two day's rest in between games. Don't be surprised when this one also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Phoenix UNDER the total. After Game 1 finished above the number, we're working with a bigger total for Game 2. I expect it to prove too high. The first game had a low-scoring first quarter (21-21) before extremely high-scoring second and third quarters. Things slowed down again in the fourth. We've seen the Clippers clamp down defensively in each of the first two series, once they've fallen behind though. I don't expect them to allow the Suns to hit better than 55% of their field goals and more than 40% of their 3-point shots this time. Scoring is a different matter though as the Suns know how to be very stingy themselves. In these playoffs alone, they've already had games on this floor where they held the visiting team to 85, 90 and 98 points. On the season, Phoenix allows 106.5 ppg at home while LA allows 107.6 ppg on the road. Clipper road games have been lower-scoring than their home games. Meanwhile, Phoenix home games have been lower-scoring than its road games. Prior to Game 1, the three previous 2021 meetings had seen scores of 219, 216 and 210. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Hawks had their chance and they squandered it. Tonight, I expect the 76ers to show why they were the top seed. This is what they worked so hard for all year. So, that they can play these games at home. Trae Young (probable) has been ridiculous throughout the playoffs. Still, its ultimately a team game and he's up against a superior team. Note that he'll be playing with a sore shoulder, too. While I'm certain Young will play, Bogdanovic is questionable. If he can't play, or is less than 100%, that's a big blow. Remember, Reddish (and Hunter) remains out. The 76ers are 38-27-1 ATS (58.4%) as favorites. I see them pulling away for a double-digit win, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they played when a series was tied. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER in Game 7 of the Nets/Bucks game. While the Nets may be banged-up, they can still score. Likewise, for the Bucks. This one's like a heavyweight title fight and I expect both teams to keep punching (scoring) right up until the final buzzer. Counting Game 5 as a push (results would have varied) the OVER is 6-1-1 the past eight, when the Nets were tied in a playoff series. Note that Game 5 "push" had a final scores of 222. So, it would have finished comfortably above tonight's total. In fact, consider that the O/U line was 244.5 when these teams first met in May and 239.5 at the beginning of the series. That's a major and significant difference from tonight. With both teams scoring well over 100, look for this one to find its way above the low number, the OVER improving to 8-4-1 when the Nets were off a double-digit loss. |
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06-18-21 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Utah UNDER the total. That last game here at LA stayed below the number. With the Clippers off an upset win at Utah, I expect tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 when LA is off a SU win as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Jazz have seen the UNDER go 7-2 when attempting to avenge a home loss. Just as they did when they got down against the Mavs, the Clippers have elevated their defense. Tonight, season on the line, I expect the Jazz to do the same. While I expect another big defensive effort, I don't see the Clippers scoring as many as they did last game. It all adds up to the final score staying below the number. |
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06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Utah UNDER the total. The defense finally showed up enough to keep last game under the total. Series tied, I'm expecting an even lower-scoring affair this evening. We saw it in the Dallas series and we're seeing it again here. Once the Clippers get down a couple of games, they elevate their defensive intensity. In case you haven't noticed, note that both those series have had identical O/U patterns. In both cases, Game 1 barely finished below the total. In both cases, Games 2 and 3 finished above the number. In both cases, Game 4 stayed below the total. So, what happened in Game 5 of the Dallas/LA series, when it was tied 2-2? A 105-100 final, that score staying beneath the O/U by double-digits. I expect that "pattern" to continue, the UNDER improving to 8-2-2 the past 12 times that the Clippers played in the second round. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 218.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Brooklyn OVER the total. This is by far the lowest O/U line of the series. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Consider that Game 1 had an O/U line of 239.5. When the teams met at the beginning of May, the O/U line was 244. Yes, things have changed; Irving is out while Harden is still questionable as of this writing. (*Update: As expected, he was officially declared out, after this play was initially posted.) Obviously, that's significant. Still not enough to warrant a line move of nearly four touchdowns in my opinion, though. While they were underdogs for their Game 3 loss, the Nets were slight favorites in Game 4. Off that loss, note that the OVER is 11-5 when Brooklyn was off an upset loss as a favorite. While the OVER is 7-4 when the Nets were off a double-digit loss, the OVER is also 19-12-1 when the Bucks were off a double-digit win. Brooklyn home games are still averaging 228 points while Milwaukee road games are still averaging 232.7. Look for his one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expected, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Atlanta UNDER the total. This series has alternated between 'overs' and 'unders.' Off a high-scoring Game 3 on Friday, I expect the 'pattern' to continue in Game 4. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 when the Hawks played with two day's rest in between games and 7-4 when the 76'ers did so. Even factoring in Game 3, Atlanta home games have seen the UNDER go 21-17 while the UNDER is also 23-16 in Philadelphia road games. The 76ers allow fewer points on the road than they do at home while the Hawks allow less at home than they do on the road. The Hawks know that scoring won't be easy and they have to improve defensively to give themselves a chance. Look for them to do so, the final combined score falling beneath the generous number. |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Brooklyn/Milwaukee OVER the total. Analysis to follow |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. After dropping the first two games against Dallas, Kawhi and the Clippers responded with a convincing win in Game 3. Down 0-2 and desperate for a victory, I expect another Game 3 win and cover against Utah. While the Jazz were 23-15 on the road, the Clippers were 27-13 at home. That includes a 16-9-1 ATS (19-7 SU) mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Clippers are still 6-3 ATS their last nine, when trailing in a playoff series. They've been here before and there will be no panic. Last time on this floor, the Clippers won 126-111. Don't count them out yet. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/LA UNDER the total. The Jazz have been flying over the total during these playoffs. Those results have helped provide us with a very high O/U line for tonight's game. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Clippers season is essentially on the line. We've seen this before though. This is when they step up their team defense. In the first two games of the Dallas series, the Clippers allowed 113 and 127 points. However, after having lost those two, they responded by elevating their defensive intensity. Over the next five games, they allowed 108, 81, 105, 97 and 111. Even factoring in the Game 2 result, the Clippers have still seen the UNDER go 6-1-2 their past nine second round playoff games. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -120 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. (moneyline) The Nuggets got beaten up in the two games at Phoenix. I don't expect them to go down without a fight though. Remember, the Nuggets were 27-12 here this season. Last time here, they scored 147 points. Their previous game here, they put up 128. Going back further finds the Nuggets at 91-30 their last 121 here. During that span, they're also 30-16 when off a double-digit loss. While the Suns outscore teams 113.2 to 110.5 on the road, the Nuggets outscore teams by an average of 117.9 to 111.6 here at home. I say the venue change will matter and that the Nuggets dig deep and bounce back with the win. |