Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-17 | Nuggets v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 94-95 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Thunder in their last game. However, that was a tough spot. Not only were they on the road, but they were off a 3-OT game the previous day. However, the Thunder have since had a day off and now they're back home. Thats significant as they're 9-4 at home compared to 5-11 on the road. They'll be playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss to the Nuggets, at Denver. Like their hosts, the Nuggets aren't nearly as good away from home. At Denver, they're an impressive 11-2. However, like the Thunder, they're just 5-11 on the road. Look for homecourt to make the difference, the revenge-minded Thunder bouncing back with a convincing win and cover. |
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12-18-17 | Northern Arizona v. South Florida -8.5 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA (10* PERS FAV). The Bulls got on track with a confidence-building 83-63 win last time out. That makes it five times in their past seven games that they've allowed 65 or fewer points. That type of defense will be the difference this evening. Northern Arizona is off b2b double-digit losses and has allowed 70 or more points in 10 of 11 games this season, an average of 81.2 ppg overall. While Northern Arizona is allowing opposing teams to hit a whopping 50.6% of their field goals on the road, USF is allowing a stingy 38.4% here at home. Expect the Bulls to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-17-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Tennessee Tech -5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH (10* PERS FAV). Chattanooga has alternated wins and losses for nearly a full month now. Off a win last time out, I expect the pattern to continue and for today's game to result in a loss. Note that the Mocs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU victory. Tech comes in hungry, off three straight road losses. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had won six straight, prior to that skid. When listed as the home team, Tech is 4-0 and has outscored opponents by a commanding 92-63 margin. Expect them to bounce back and take care of business this afternoon, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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12-16-17 | Utah v. BYU -4 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Utes have had the better of the Cougars in recent seasons. However, I expect the Cougars to take care of business this evening. Granted, the schedule hasn't been exactly tough. Still, the Cougars check in with a 5-game winning streak and full of confidence. The last four of those victories all came by greater than five points. While perfect at home, Utah has struggled on the road. The Utes' last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at Butler. Before that, they'd lost a neutral site game against UNLV by 27. Off a win over another instate rival (Utah St) look for the Utes to have a minor letdown here with the Cougs more than happy to take full advantage. |
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12-16-17 | Suns v. Wolves -11.5 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). I attended the 11/11 game, at Phoenix, between the T-Wolves and Suns. Behind a huge game from Booker, the Suns won that one. Since then, however, Booker has gotten hurt. The Wolves already got some payback with an 11-point win here at Minnesota. I expect an even more lopsided margin this evening. The Wolves, who are off a 23-point destruction of Sacramento, know that they'll play at Phoenix again on 12/23. A look at the rest of their December schedule reveals that this is their "easiest" game remaining in 2017 - at least, they wont be favored by this much again. With the Suns at just 6-18-1 ATS (3-22 SU) the past 25 times that they played with exactly two day's rest, look for the Wolves to take hold serve at home, doing so in convincing fashion. |
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12-15-17 | Thunder v. 76ers UNDER 212 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Philly to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The 76ers are off back-to-back high-scoring games. However, thats a little deceiving. The first of those games was against up-tempo, defensively-challenged New Orleans. The second was against Minnesota and it was only highscoring due to the game going to OT. If not for OT, it would have fallen comfortably below the total. Prior to those two games, the 76ers had seen five straight games fall belw the number. As for the Thunder, they've seen four of their past six games stay below the number. They allowed 101 or fewer points in five of those, most recently keeping Indiana to 95. Overall, including that result, the Thunder have now seen the UNDER go 9-2 when facing a team from the Eastern Conference. Expect those stats to improve Friday night. |
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12-14-17 | Kings v. Wolves UNDER 206 | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Sacramento to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). Tough break for 'under' bettors in the T-Wolves' last game, as it finished above the total, only due to going to OT. (With an O/U line of around 215, the final score was only 200 at the end of regulation.) Even with that result, the UNDER is still 11-8 when the Wolves were favored. The Kings have now seen three of their last four fall below the total, failing to reach 'triple-digits' in all but one of those games. The lone game (12/8 at NO) that finished above the total only did so due to it, too, reaching overtime. No OT tonight. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-12-17 | Suns v. Kings -4 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* PERS FAV). The Kings need to take advantage of this winnable game. They just finished a tough 4-game trip. Then, they lost here vs. Toronto. After this, they embark on another fairly difficult 4-game trip. The Suns already beat the Kings earlier. That was at Phoenix and with Booker in the lineup. Booker had called it a "must win," as it was the first game after the coach had been fired and came on the heels of Bledsoe having been sent home. I backed the Suns in that one (Oct. GOM) and they rewarded me with their first win. With tonight's rematch at Sacramento and the Suns now without Booker, expect the revenge-minded Kings to get some payback. |
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12-12-17 | Michigan v. Texas UNDER 128.5 | Top | 59-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/Michigan to finish UNDER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). Last season's meeting had an O/U line of 130.5 and produced only 103 combined points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair tonight. Both these teams can play defense. Mohamed Bamba, who Michigan tried to recruit themselves, ended up with Texas. While the 7-footer is also a threat offensively, its his defense which figures to give the Wolverines real problems. Points in the paint won't come easily. Meanwhile, Texas will be playing its first game without its leading scorer; Andrew Jones (15.3 ppg) is out. Look for points to be at a premium, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the past six times that the Longhorns played with five or six day's rest in between games. |
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12-11-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 85-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a great spot for the Bulls. Off back-to-back victories and three straight covers, Chicago comes in playing arguably its best basketball of the season. The Bulls, who had yesterday off, haven't forgotten that the Celtics eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Celtics are of a win at Detroit yesterday and will now be playing their third road game in the past four days. |
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12-10-17 | Celtics v. Pistons UNDER 202.5 | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Detroit to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). While the Celtics have been on an extended 'over' streak, the opposite is true of the Pistons. The 'over' is 9-2 in Boston's last 11 but the 'under' is 9-2-1 in Detroit's last 12. This season's earlier meeting, at Boston, was high-scoring. Playing at Detroit, where the Pistons should be more effective in dictacting the pace, I'm expecting a lower-scoring rematch. Both the Celtics' visits here last season stayed below the total. The UNDER is 13-7-1 the past 21 times that the Pistons were on a losing streak of three or more games. With the UNDER also at 3-0 the past three times that Boston attempted to avenge a home loss, expect points to be at a relative premium. |
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12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +9 | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Rockets have played very well away from Houston. That said, I believe they're being asked to lay too many points against what figures to be an extremely hungry Portland team. The Blazers haven't been underdogs this big all season - even when playing on the road. Already 0-3 on their current homestand and with a difficult road trip starting at Golden State coming up next, the Blazers know they could desperately use a victory tonight. They beat the Rockets by double-digits the last time that the teams met. Expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover. |
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12-09-17 | Minnesota v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gophers may have the higher ranking. However, the Razorbacks are favored for good reason. Minnesota came back to earth last time out, a double-digit loss at Nebraska. The Hogs, on the other hand, bring plenty of confidence to the table. They've already beaten the likes of Oklahoma and UConn and they're off a 92-66 thrashing of Colorado State. With an O/U line in the mid-160s, note that Arkansas is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it played a home game with an O/U line in the 160s, covering the spread in eight of those. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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12-08-17 | Air Force v. UC Riverside +3.5 | Top | 48-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). Since upsetting Cal in their opener, the Highlanders have gone through a tough stretch. This figures to be a good spot to get back on track though. The Falcons, who lost vs. Abilene Christian last time out, are just 2-13 SU the past 15 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Now, they're being asked to lay points. The Highlanders have only lost one home game by more than two this season. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-08-17 | Raptors v. Grizzlies UNDER 202 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Memphis UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). The Raptors are off three straight high-scoring games. All those came at Toronto though and all were against a much different style of opponent from the one that they'll face tonight. The Grizzlies have seen eight of their last 10 games dip below the number. A closer look reveals that they only topped 95 points in one of those 10 games. They've been playing low-scoring games, here at Memphis, all season. In fact, 11 of 13 games here have stayed below the number, games here averaging just 194.8 points. The Ratpors have seen each of their last two visits here stay below the total and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-07-17 | Thunder v. Nets OVER 215 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Brooklyn OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Tonight's game will be played south of the border. I'm expecting to venue to help to contribute to a fairly high-scoring game. Last year's games here at Mexico City produced 221 and 213 points. The first of those (Dallas/Phoenix) finished above the total while the second (SA/Phoenix) landed right on/near the number. In both cases, there was a team which was helping to keep the score down. The Mavs entered that game averaging only 95 points while the Spurs entered theirs allowing less than 98. That shouldn't be the case tonight. Brooklyn games are averaging more than 222 combined points. True, the Thunder are pretty stingy, allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, that number climbs into triple-digits when they're away from OKC. On offense, Westbrook and co. are still capable of putting up big numbers against a porous defensive team like the one they'll see here. The Nets arrived a day early to adjust to the oxygen. Expect them to want to push the pace, the Thunder happy to oblige. |
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12-07-17 | Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -7 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons have lost this matchup each of the past two years. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback. SF eked out a SU victory last time out, providing some confidence. Eastern Washington, on the other hand, lost by 19 points at Seattle. In fact, all five of this season's losses have been by double-digits. More of the same here. |
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12-06-17 | Hawks v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* PERS FAV). Knowing that they'll face these same Hawks, at Altanta, in a few days, I expect the Magic to deliver a strong effort on their home floor this evening, as they attempt to "hold serve." The Magic played their last two games on the road and before that they'd faced the Warriors and Thunder. Yet, they still managed to split those games. Now, they face a team which they match up well against. With the Hawks just 3-9 on the road and off a 20-point loss against Brooklyn, expect the Magic to take advantage. |
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12-06-17 | Tennessee Tech v. Dayton -9.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on DAYTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like how this one sets up for the home team. Tennessee Tech just saw a 6-game winning streak snapped last time out and may come in a bit deflated, as a result. The Flyers will be stepping down in class. They just gave Miss. State everything that it could handle. The last time that they faced a team (Akron) in a similar class as the one they'll face tonight, the won by 13 as an 8.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this evening. |
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12-05-17 | Suns v. Raptors -13 | Top | 113-126 | Push | 0 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Suns are playing the final game of a long six-game road trip and I think they have a predictable letdown here. In fact Phoenix comes in off a hugely satisfying 115-101 win over Philadelphia just last night. The Raptors on the other hand have had three whole nights off after beating the Pacers 120-115 in their latest action. And with another two days off after tonight’s contest, the Raptors will be completley focused on the task at hand. The Suns got the better of the Raptors 115-103 back on January 22nd, 2017, but the conditions favor a blowout for Toronto this time around. Lay the points with confidence, Raptors roll. |
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12-05-17 | Ball State v. Notre Dame -17.5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Notre Dame. Ball State comes in off an 83-63 win over INDPU, while Notre Dame enters off a 71-53 home victory over St. Francis. Ball State averages 80.5 PPG and allows 81.2. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. The Cardinals have played two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Oregon this season, losing by 39 to the Sooners and falling 95-71 to the Ducks. Notre Dame though is on an entirely different level, coming in averaging 80.1 PPG and allowing just 61.9. After falling to Michigan State, the Irish bounced back with a solid win over St. Francis and I don’t foresee them “looking past” their opponent today either. Ball State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and all signs point to another letdown here. Lay the points, Irish roll. |
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12-04-17 | Wolves v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Memphis Grizzlies. I base my picks on many different things. I consider myself among the best when it comes to finding which side is more “motivated” than the other in a particular contest and in this case, I don’t think there’s any need to doubt the Grizzlies’ overall focus today, as Memphis enters on an 11-game losing streak, most recently a 116-111 loss in Cleveland on Saturday night. Minnesota is just 6-6 on the road this season and plays at home against the Clippers on Sunday. And with a game against the lowly Clippers again on Wednesday, the Wolves could no doubt be caught looking ahead to that one, on top of also being fatigued in the second game of the back-to-back. Play on Memphis. |
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12-04-17 | Iowa v. Indiana -4.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
10* SUPER SPECIAL on Indiana. Indiana will be especially motivated here after it fell 69-55 to Michigan on the road on Monday. Indiana will in fact be looking to break a two-game slide. Iowa has also lost two straight, most recently a tough 77-73 setback at home to Penn State. These teams played twice last year and each won its home floor (Iowa won 96-90 in OT in Iowa City, before the Hoosiers got their revenge with a 95-73 win in the Big Ten Tournament to eliminate the Hawkeyes chance for an NCAA Tournament berth.) Iowa coach Fran McCaffery is just 5-7 all time agains the Hoosiers and I think his team will have a difficult time here in this hostile environment. Indiana has held its last five opponents to just 33.3 percent shooting from range, which I think spells doom for the streaky Hawkeyes. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll. |
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12-03-17 | Detroit v. UCLA -20.5 | Top | 73-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on UCLA. The Titans looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion. Detroit had dropped three in a row before a 91-83 victory over IUPU-Ft. Wayne on Tuesday. It wasn’t pretty either really, winning the shooting battle 47.6 percent to 44.3 percent. Detroit also committed 18 turnovers. The Titans got balanced scoring in that one, but now they face a red hot UCLA Bruins team which has won three straight (6-1 overall) and which just took care of business in a 75-66 victory over Cal State Bakersfield. In that game UCLA held the Roadrunners to just 29.9 percent shootng, while hitting 46 percent itself. With a much more “winnable” game upcoming against Toledo, I think the visitors simply go through the motions tonight. Lay the points as UCLA pulls away down the stretch. Bruins roll. |
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12-03-17 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 87-90 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs look poised for a letdown here after a home and home sweep of the Grizzlies, most recently a 95-79 victory on Friday. OKC will look to take advantage and build off its 111-107 win at home over Minnesota, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. To say this is a revenge game as well would be a bit of an understatement, as SA has won four of the last five meetings, including a 104-101 home victory in the first matchup this year back in mid November. So far the Spurs average just 101.5 PPG, while allowing only 97.5. OKC averages 102.7 PPG and allows just 99.6. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Pistons, I believe the visitors get caught looking ahead tonight as well. And with a night off before a home game against the Nets, there’s no question that the Thunder can put their full attention onto the court tonight. I look for a comfortable home victory. Lay the points, Thunder roll. |
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12-02-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Portland Trailblazers. Portland has won seven of its last ten, but it had its three-game win streak snapped in a 103-91 setback to Milwaukee in its its first game back after a five-game road trip. With three whole nights off after this one, I expect Portland to be much more focused this evening. The Blazers have to be loving their chances for a bounce back here as well as they’ve already beaten the Pelicans this year, most recently a convincing 103-93 victory on October 24th. New Orleans plays a tough one Utah on Friday night and will clearly be “gassed” here. I think the situation is right for a home side blowout. Lay the points, Blazers roll. |
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12-02-17 | San Francisco +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 57-75 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
8* BEST BET on San Francisco. Arizona State hasn’t been ranked in nine years, but it is now (No. 21.) The Sun Devils have averaged 95.7 points. Arizona State is a smaller team which likes to push the pace and it gets balanced scoring as well. The Dons saw their three-game win streak come to an end in Tuesday’s 79-72 loss to UC Santa Barbara in their most recent action. San Francisco has also been getting production from its reserves, as the Dons’ bench has scored at least 26 points in five consecutive games. With a week off before a neutral site game against St. John’s, I think the Sun Devils have a small letdown here and look past their lowly opponent. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that San Francisco has the depth to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points. |
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12-02-17 | Indiana v. Michigan UNDER 139 | Top | 55-69 | Win | 102 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
10* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL on the under Indiana/Michigan. Indiana comes in off a 91-81 setback to Duke on Wednesday, while Michigan comes in off an 86-71 loss to the Blue Devils. Indiana will be looking to atone for its lacklustre defensive effort last time out, allowing Duke to shoot 55 percent from the floor. So far Indiana averages 78.3 PPG and allows 76. Michigan averages 77.8 PPG and allows just 63.4. The Wolverines looked shaky on both ends of the floor in their loss to UNC, allowing the Tar Heels to shoot 55 percent. Each team comes in off a loss, getting blown because of a poor defensive effort. With each putting a concerted effort on that end of the floor this afternoon though, I’m expecting a lower-scoring under once the final horn sounds. |
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12-01-17 | Boise State v. Oregon -7 | Top | 73-70 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on Oregon. The Ducks are going to be the more “desperate” team in my opinion, as they come in having lost two of their last three, most recently setbacks against UConn and Oklahoma. Conversely, the Broncos look poised for a letdown after consecutive victories over Loyola Marymount and Loyola-Chicago. Boise State though catches a Ducks team looking to atone for a lacklustre 71-63 OT loss to DePaul, followed by a 90-80 setback to the Cowboys. In fact, it’s safe to say that Oregon will be highly motivated here, as the 90 points given up to the Sooners was the most that the Ducks have allowed since 2015. Oregon is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 at home and I like it to bounce back with a convincing effort here. Lay the points, Ducks roll. |
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12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is already a double revenge game for the Thunder, as the Wolves have taken both earlier meetings. OKC has lost three straight and five of its last six. Despite the losing streak, it’s still fourth in the league in defense by giving up an average of 99.3 PPG. Minnesota ranks tenth in scoring with 107.8 PPG. It’s a classic matchup of styles, but I think the Thunder are clearly the “hungrier” team. The Big 3 can’t be happy, especially Russell Westbrook, who took responsibility for his team’s mediocre start to the season recently. OKC also plays with double revenge. I’m banking on these motivational factors to be enough to get the Thunder over the hump in this one. Lay the points, OKC rolls. |
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11-30-17 | Bucks v. Blazers UNDER 202 | Top | 103-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the under Bucks/Blazers. The Bucks had lost four in a row before a 112-87 destruction of the Kings on Tuesday (Sacramento had won in Golden State the night previous.) Portland enters on a bit of a roll as it’s won three straight, most recently a 103-91 victory over the Knicks on Monday. Milwaukee though has been a disappointment on the offensive end of the court this year, ranked 21st overall with just 102.9 PPG. The defense has been a bit better, ranked 13th by allowing 104.6. This is the end of Milwaukee’s four-game road trip, so a letdown/look-ahead is entirely possible here as well obviously. The Blazers have also been a major disappointment offensively this year, ranked 20th in the league with an average of 103.2 PPG. Portland though has been a revelation on the defensive end of the court, ranked fourth in the league by allowing just 98.8 PPG. I expect these two aggressive teams to battle hard and for this total to ultimately fall under once the final horn sounds. |
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11-30-17 | Notre Dame v. Michigan State OVER 137 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the over Notre Dame/Michigan State. Two of the top teams in the nation collide on Thursday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Irish are 6-0 SU, while Michigan State is 5-1. Notre Dame most recently beat Witchita State 67-66, while Michigan State crushed UNC 63-45 on Sunday. So far ND averages 84.5 PPG, while allowing 60.2. The Spartans average 80.8 PPG and allow just 63. ND though has seen the total go over in four of its last five after holding an opponent to 66 points or less in its previous contest, while MSU has seen the total soar over in three of its last four after holding its opponent to 48 points or less in its previous outing. Great offenses vs. great defenses. I think the depth that each team brings to the table will help theses offenses push this one over as the game comes down the stretch though. Play the over. |
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11-29-17 | Illinois State v. Nevada -13 | Top | 68-98 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Nevada. This is a matchup in the Mountain West-Missouri Valley Conference Challenge. Illinois State had its two game win streak snapped with a tough 64-62 OT loss to Charleston Southern on Saturday, while Nevada comes into this one unbeaten after a 67-54 road win over Hawaii on Saturday. The Redbirds average 75.3 PPG, while allowing 72.3. Nevada averages 84.3 PPG and allows just 67.3. Illinois State’s lack of depth (lost the majority of its starters from last year) is becoming very apparent. Nevada on the other hand is starting to dominate on both ends of the floor and it has to be feeling confident in friendly confines. Lay the points, Wolfpack rolls. |
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11-29-17 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 201 | Top | 86-115 | Push | 0 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on the under Heat/Knicks. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as Miami comes in off a tough 108-97 loss to Cleveland just last night. The Knicks will look to take advantage, as they come in having lost three straight, most recently a 103-91 setback to Portland on Monday. Miami ranks 26th in the league in scoring with 100.9 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive end by allowing just 102 PPG. New York averages 104 PPG and allows 104.7. The margin of error is slim for each side most nights, but with the Heat getting ready to play the second game of the back-to-back, I have a hard time seeing either club putting up many points this evening. This one has the feeling of a slower-paced affair. Also note that New York gets set to welcome back defensive specialist Enes Kanter tonight (he’s been out with injury over New York’s three-game slide.) Play the under. |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 77-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the over Nuggets/Jazz. The Nuggets come to town off a 104-92 win at home over Memphis on Friday, while Utah comes in with momentum as well, having won two straight and three of four after handling the Bucks 121-108 at home on Saturday. Denver averages 107.8 PPG and allows 106.5. Big man Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 16.3 points, 11.2 boarda and 4.5 assists per game. Utah averages just 101.3 PPG, while giving up 100.4 Clearly the Utah offense has the ability though to put points on the board, as evidenced by the spanking it just adminstered on Milwaukee. Ricky Rubio has been fantastic for the Jazz in his first year for them with 12.9 points, 5.1 assists and 1.74 steals per outing. Without Paul Millsap in the line-up, Denver becomes a smaller team which will have to push the pace. With the Jazz matching, this number is indeed just a little low. Play the over. |
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11-28-17 | Iona +3 v. Ohio | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
10* BEST BET on Iona. Iona is just 1-4, its lone win coming over Weber State. In the latest loss to Coastal Carolina, Rickey McGill put up 23 points and seven assists. Ohio has done a little better than its counterpart today, coming into this one sitting at 3-2 on the year. Most recently Ohio knocked off St. Mary’s, with Teyvion Kirk posting 20 points, five boards and six assists. The Gaels came out slow against the Chanticleers last time out, putting up 26 points in the first half. Iona though put up 58 points in the second and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Conversely, while Ohio does come in off back-to-back wins, note that its just 1-3 ATS in its last four after putting up more than 95 points in back-to-back outings previously (beat Indiana State 96-94 in four OT’s and then Saint Mary’s 96-77.) Grab the points, play on Iona. |
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11-27-17 | Nets v. Rockets -16 | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on the Houston Rockets. Brooklyn comes in off a highly satisfying 98-88 road win against Memphis just last night as a 5.5 point underdog and suffice it to say, I’m expecting an immediate letdown here. The Rockets enter off their fourth straight win in a come-from-behind 117-102 victory over the Knicks at home on Saturday. Brooklyn averages 111.3 PPG, but allows 114.9. The Rockets average 113.5 PPG and allow just 103.4. Houston is 6-1 ATS this season on one or less days rest and has won ten of its last 11. The Nets had lost three straight before last night’s victory, but will clearly be “gassed,” as this is their third game in four days. All signs point to a blowout. Lay the points, Rockets roll. |
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11-27-17 | Maryland v. Syracuse OVER 134.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH over Maryland/Syracuse. Two of the nation’s leading teams in the early going are going head-to-head on Monday night and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. Maryland bounced back from its first loss of the year , beating New Mexico by 15 in its latest action, 80-65. The Terps feature a big time scorer in Anthony Cowan, who is averaging 15.3 PPG and who had 21 in the victory over the Lobos (note that Maryland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven when playing with one or less days rest.) Syracuse comes in off a win over Toledo and will have to get the job done without leading scorer Tyus Battle tonight, who left the victory over the Rockets with a sore back. Syracuse though has been getting production from others, including its two big men in Bourma Sidibe and Paschal Chukwu, both of whom are shooting better than 70 percent so far this year. With both teams pushing the pace, all signs point to a higher-scoring affair. Play the over. |
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11-26-17 | Missouri v. West Virginia -7 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on West Virginia. Both teams come into this one at 5-1. So far Missouri averages 83.4 PPG and gives up 66.2. Kassisus Robertson has averaged 13.7 points and 2.8 assists per game. It won’t be easy for WVU today obviously, as the Tigers have won four of their last six neutral site affairs. The Mountaineers have won five straight and average 88.7 PPG, while allowing 64.2. Jevon Carter averages 16.3 points and 5.8 assists per contest. WVU has also been sharp in neutal site games, going 7-3 in its last ten such cases. Missouri did have difficulty against Utah’s pressure defense earlier in the year, which doesn’t bode well facing the Mountaineers, a team which just held UCF to 45 points. Lay the points, WVU rolls. |
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11-26-17 | Nets v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nets come to town off three straight losses, including a deflating 127-125 home setback to Portland on Friday. The Grizzlies can empahthize, as they’ll come into this one desperate after losing seven straight, most recently a 104-92 setback at Denver on Friday. The Nets average 111.3 PPG and allow 114.9. The Grizzlies average 99.4 PPG and allow 101. With a tough game tomorrow night in Houston, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. And with two whole games off after tonight, the Grizzlies have no more excuses. I’m expecting a rout. Lay the points, Memphis rolls. |
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11-25-17 | Pelicans v. Warriors -13 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Golden State. The Warriors annihilated the Bulls 143-94 last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. The Pelicans come off a satisfying 115-91 win at Phoenix last night. New Orleans averages 108.6 PPG and concedes 109.2. Anthony Davis averages 25.9 points and 11.2 boards, while DeMarcus Cousins adds 26.5 points and 5.9 assists. Golden State now averages 117.4 PPG after last night’s destruction, while allowing 107.5. Kevin Durant averages 24.7 points, 6.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game. Both teams are coming off games just last night, which I feel gives the advantage to the home side here. I think the Pelicans come in content and the hungry Warriors once again lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the points. |
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11-24-17 | Pelicans v. Suns +6 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
10* ANNIHILATOR on the Phoenix Suns. I think the Pelicans have a letdown here after winning four of their last six, including an upset over San Antonio in their most recent. Phoenix has been terrible all year, but it’s looked a little better with two wins out of its last three. Note that this is a triple revenge game for Phoenix, who has dropped three straight in the series. The Suns almost had three wins in a row, but they’d suffer the 113-107 OT setback to Milwaukee on Wednesday. New Orleans is the better overall team, but with a game tomorrow night in Golden State, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors not only having a letdown here after the extended stretch of good play and off the upset, but also getting caught “looking ahead.” Look for the hungry Suns to take advantage and grab the points. |
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11-24-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Indiana -8 | Top | 67-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. One of these teams has been overacheiving, while the other has been underacheiving. EMU comes into this one at 4-0, most recently taking care of Howard. Suffice it to say, off four straight wins, I think the Eagles are primed for a letdown here. Indiana is 3-2, dropping its first two games, before then beating Howard, USF and Arkansas State. EMU hasn’t fared well in this spot for bettors over the years, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins. Indiana got out to the slow start, but the team has completely turned its performance around. I don’t foresee a letdown from the home side at Assembly Hall. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll. |
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11-23-17 | George Washington +18.5 v. Xavier | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -126 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
10* BEST BET on George Washington. This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational. Xavier comes in of a 96-60 win over Hampton, while George Washington enters off a 67-65 loss to Rider on Monday. Xavier is 4-0, averaging 94.5 points and allowing just 63.5 to start the young season. The Colonials had an extremely poor shooting night against the Rams, going 44 percent from the floor and only 4 of 18 from range, and they still almost pulled off the victory. So far George Washington has averaged 70 points, while conceding 71. The Colonials have had their early difficulties, but the team features depth and it’s been competitive. George Washington’s defensive play has also been decent. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but I do think the Colonials can catch the Musketeers a little complacent after their blazing start to the 2017/18 campaign in this neutral court affair. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Colonials. |
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11-23-17 | Vanderbilt v. Virginia -6 | Top | 42-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
8* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Virginia. Vanderbilt lost 93-89 in OT to USC on the 19th and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here as I think the Commodores come in “hung over” from that disappointing setback. Conversely, the Cavs come in off a momentum/confidence building 73-53 win over Monmouth on Sunday and I look for them to carry it over here. Vanderbilt actually had a ten-point lead mid way through the second half before completely falling apart and then losing in the extra period (14 costly turnovers ended up being the difference for Vanderbilt in the end in that one.) The Cavs are 4-0 thanks in large part to their depth. In their latest victory, freshman De’Andre Hunter came off the bench to score 23 points. Virginia has been suffocating teams with its defensive play as well, holding opponents to just 37.5 percent from the floor. Ultimately I believe that Virginia’s depth and superior defensive performance proves to be too much for Vanderbilt. Lay the points, Cavaliers roll. |
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11-22-17 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 215.5 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on under Magic/Wolves. Orlando comes in hungry, as it’s lost seven of its last ten and four straight. Most recently the Magic dropped a 105-97 decision to Indiana (after getting smoked by the Jazz 125-85 previous to that.) The “magic” that Orlando had at the beginning of the year is gone as several players struggle to find their shot. If the Magic have any hopes of scoring the upset today, clearly they’re going to have to slow this one down and try to take the Wolves out of their comfort zone. And with a game in Boston on Friday night, its not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead as well. The Wolves have also struggled offensively of late, they come in off back-to-back losses, posting just 97 and 102 points respectively. This marks the opener of a four-game stand for Minnesota. I think the conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring under. |
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11-22-17 | Arkansas State v. Indiana -12.5 | Top | 70-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. This is the Hoosier Tip Off Classic, which the Hoosiers are hosting at Assembely Hall. Arkansas State comes in off a 92-78 win over Howard on Monday, while Indiana posted a 70-53 home victory over USF last time out. Over their first three games the Red Wolves are averaging 74 points and allowing 75. Indiana has averaged 73 PPG and allowed 76 over its first four. The Hoosiers looked a lot better against South Florida though, shooting 47 percent from the floor and I think the team carries that momentum over here (also held the Bulls to just 34 percent shooting.) Arkansas State is allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field, which is music to the ever improving Hoosiers ears. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points. |
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11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers UNDER 211 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP on the under Bulls/Lakers. The Bulls come in off their sixth loss in their last seven games in Sunday’s 113-105 setback in Phoenix. I had the Suns in that one. The Lakers had lost two straight and five of six before hammering the Nuggets 127-109 on Sunday. Chicago averages only 95.5 PPG, while allowing 104.9. The Bulls are also a poor 27th in shooting in the league with an average of 33.7 percent from range. The Lakers average 105.6 PPG and allow 107.5 LA is even worse than Chicago from the 3-point line, shooting 29.4 percent from downtown. Chicago won’t want to turn this into a “track meet,” so with the visitors putting an added emphasis onto trying to slow the game down whenever possible, I’m banking on this one staying below the number once it’s all said and done. |
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11-21-17 | Pacific +7.5 v. Air Force | Top | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* ANNIHILATOR on Pacific. Pacific will be the “hungrier” team here, it’s 0-3, while the Falcons could be caught a little flat-footed as they’re 2-0 to open the 2017/18 campaign. Pacific most recently fell 89-74 at Nevada. Jahlil Tripp was a standout with 24 points and 14 boards. Air Force most recently got the better of Canisius 93-79. The Falcons were never really challenged in that one, but I believe they’ll have their hands full with the Tigers’ versatile swingman Tripp. Pacific has the talent and depth to win this one outright, but in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. |
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11-20-17 | LSU v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 77-75 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan. Two teams enter unbeaten, only one team will leave the same way. Michigan posted a 61-47 home win over Southern Mississippi in its latest action, while LSU enters off a 105-86 victory over lowly Samford. The Wolverines started slowly, but looked sharp in the second half against the Golden Eagles, shooting 48.9 percent from the floor, while holding Southern Miss to just 40 percent. So far Michigan has averaged 73 points and allowed 59.3 over its first three gams. LSU has averaged 102 points over its first two ames, but it’s allowed an average of 72.5. However as mentioned off the top, the competition has been weak and clearly the Tigers face a much stiffer test in the Wolverines. These teams have performed at entirely different ends of the spectrum in “neutral court” affairs, with LSU going just 1-4 ATS in its last five such cases, while Michigan has gone 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site contests. LSU’s inexperience and lack of overall defensive pressure turns out to be its downfall today. Lay the points, Wolverines roll. |
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11-20-17 | Wolves v. Hornets -2 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte finally got off the schneid, breaking a six-game slide with a 102-87 win over the Clippers on Saturday. Now the Hornets will look to push the pace and build off that victory and take advantage of a tired Wolves team which was in Detroit on Sunday. This is also a big time revenge contest for the Hornets, who lost to Detroit 112-94 on November 5th. No need to overthink this one. The Wolves defense is going to be tired here after a tough game in Detroit on Sunday, while the Hornets look to build off their latest win after an extended losing streak, while at the same time trying to avenge a loss to Minnesota just a couple of weeks ago. Lay the points, Charlotte rolls. |
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11-19-17 | Bulls v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Phoenix Suns. I think the Bulls have a predictable letdown here after they broke their five game losing streak in their 123-120 victory at home over the Hornets. Conversely, I believe the Suns are going to build off their impressive 122-113 road victory at the Lakers on Friday, snapping a two-game slide. These bottom feeders split a pair of games last year, each winning on its home floor. Despite their latest win, the Bulls are still horrible offensively, ranked second to last in scoring with 94.8 PPG. The strength of the team lies on the defensive side as Chicago is allowing 104.2. The Suns can run with the best of them though, averaging 107.6 PPG, while allowing 116.6 per night. Phoenix catches a break facing a tired Bulls team. Lay the points, Suns roll. |
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11-19-17 | Western Carolina v. Minnesota -27.5 | Top | 64-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Minnesota. The Western Carolina Catamounts opened the 2017/18 campaign with back-to-back losses, before finally scoring a victory over lowly Hiwassee College. Western Carolina though had 21 turnovers in that one and was also outshot 45.3 percent to 36.7 percent. Minnesota is rolling along at 3-0 to open the year, most recently hammering Niagara 107-81 on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers played swarming defense, holding the Purple Eagles to just 36.4 percent shooting, while countering with 53.8 percent themselves. I simply can’t see the Catamounts mustering any sort of offensive attack today and I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to waste this opportunity by “looking past” their opponent. This spread could in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. Lay the points, Minnesota rolls. |
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11-18-17 | Clippers v. Hornets -5 | Top | 87-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. Both teams are coming off losses. Both teams played just last night. LA lost 118-113 in OT at Cleveland, while Charlotte fell 123-120 in OT at Chicago. LA has not been good whatsoever in this spot for bettors going 0-4 ATS in its last four in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte on the other hand is 2-1 ATS in the same position. Charlotte’s now lost six straight and in my opinion, it will absolutely be the “hungrier” team tonight. I’m banking on that being the difference, Hornets roll. |
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11-18-17 | Princeton v. St. Joe's -2.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on St. Joseph’s. Princeton has not looked sharp to open the year, sitting at 0-2 SU/ATS. The Tigers went 14-0 in league play last season, but so far their offense has stalled. Princeton most recently fell 65-56 at home to BYU, shooting a poor 37.7 percent form the floor. So far Princeton has averaged 75 points over the first two games. The Hawks rebounded from an opening season loss to down UIC 86-82 in OT on Monday. St. Joe’s went on to shoot 45 percent from the floor. The Hawks have looked a big shaky defensively, but the offense is firing on all cylinders, putting up 98 and 86 points over the first two games respectively. St. Joe’s feautres three players shooting over 50 percent in the early going, which doesn’t bode well for a Tigers’ team which struggled by shooting only 37.7 percent in its home opener. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout. |
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11-17-17 | Blazers v. Kings +7.5 | Top | 82-86 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
10* BEST BET on the Sacramento Kings. The Blazers have more talent than the Kings, but so far Portland has struggled for the most part this year. The Blazers are just 5-5 in their last ten overall and come in averaging 104.6 PPG, while allowing 98.9. Beyond CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard though, the Blazers are thin. The hungry Kings looks to take advantage as they come in having lost ten of their last 12. So far Sacramento averages 93.6 PPG and allows 107.1. Clearly not a recipie for success, but I still like the Kings in this one. I expect Sacramento to leave it all on the line in this one as it looks to take advantage of home floor, before the second game of the back-to-back in Portland on Saturday. |
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11-17-17 | Northeastern v. Stanford -8.5 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Northeastern enters off an 83-49 win over lowly Wentworth, while the Cardinal will be out to atone for a 67-61 home loss to Eastern Washington on Tuesday. The Huskies haven’t really been tested yet as they’d barely manage to get by Boston University 65-59 in their opener, before then crushing div. II Wentworth 83-49. Overall Northeastern has some talent, like Devon Begley, who was the third overall scorer on last year’s team. Despite that though, note that the Huskies were picked to finish sixth in the ten man CAA conference (they were just 15-16 overall last year.) Stanford was favored by 16 points in its outright loss to Eastern Washington. Reid Travis had 20 points on 6 of 14 shooting. The Cardinal looked strong in their first two games, beating Cal Poly and Pacific, but just couldn’t get anything to fall against the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back here. The Huskies lack depth and they’re facing a much better team which comes in off an embarrassing effort. I’m expecting a beatdown. Lay the points, Stanford rolls. |
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11-16-17 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the under Warriors/Celtics. With the eyes of the basketball world on Boston tonight, I believe these two league-leaders will play to more of a defensive battle, than a higher-scoring shootout. The Warriors enter having won seven straight, most recently getting the better of the Magic 110-100 at home on Monday. The Celtics have won 13 straight after beating the Nets 109-102 in New Jersey on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note that these teams split a pair of games last year, each winning on the others floor. Golden State is the No. 1 offense in the league, scoring 119.6 PPG, while ranked 22nd on the defensive side in conceding 107.7. Clearly the C’s won’t be able to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to score the upset. Instead Boston will look to control the pace of this one from start to finish. The Celtics are ranked just 22nd in the NBA in scoring with 102.7 PPG, but ranked No. 1 on the defensive side in allowing only 94.5. It’s a clash of styles, but it’s one which I think Boston is going to dictate. Look for this one to sneak under once it’s all said and done. |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP on the under 76ers/Lakers. These teams are loaded with talent, but not much experience. The 76ers broke a two-game slide with a win over the Clippers on Monday, while LA dropped a three game losing streak with a 100-93 victory over the Suns on Monday. The 76ers average 107.9 PPG and allow 109.5. Clearly that’s not a recipie for long-term success. This is also the finale of a five-game Western road swing for the 76ers, who have two whole nights off before a matchup with the Warriors. Can anyone say letdown/lookahead spot? The Lakers average only 103.3 PPG and allow 105.9. Five of LA’s last seven though have fallen below the number after holding its previous opponent to 94 points or fewer. I absolutely believe the conditions are right for these two young teams to battle hard and for this one to fall below the number once the final horn sounds. |
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11-15-17 | UC-Davis v. Pacific -4.5 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
10* GAME OF WEEK on Pacific. The UC Davis Aggies beat Northern Colorado 74-59 on Monday, outscoring the Bears 42-24 in the second half. The Tigers will be the hungrier team here though after their hard-fought 89-80 loss to Stanford in their opener. Pacific was able to post 49 points in the second half, which is impressive against the Cardinal and I look for the home side to carry that momentum over here. UC Davis does have talent, like Chima Moneke, who had 28 points in his team’s latest victory. But the Tigers also feature numerous weapons, including Mile Reynolds, who came off the bench in the loss to Stanford to chip in 20 points. The Tigers have gone toe to toe and blow for blow with the best in the country and nearly came out on top. UC Davis faces a stiff test today and I think it’ll stumble. Lay the points, Pacific rolls. |
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11-14-17 | Eastern Washington v. Stanford -16.5 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Eastern Washington is 1-1. It’s yet to win on the road. So far it’s averaging 69 points and allowing 79. Clearly not a recipie for success. Bogdan Bliznyuk has been a standout, so far averaging 19 points and 5.5 boards. The road has not been kind to the Eagles though, who have lost five of their last seven away from friendly confines. The Cardinal are 2-0 and are so far averaging 83.5 points, while allowing 71. Reid Travis has been a beast, averaging 24.5 points and 3.5 assits per game. Stanford seems like a team on a mission this year after last season’s disappointment. Eastern Washington simply does not have the talent or depth to run with the surging Cardinal and in my opinion, this one definitely has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Stanford rolls. |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
10* BEST BET on Toronto Raptors. Could the Rockets come in complacent here? It’s obviously very possible. Houston has won six in a row and must feel pretty good about itself. The Raptors on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after their two-game win streak was snapped in a tight 95-94 road loss in Boston on Sunday. Toronto averages 108.8 PPG and gives up 104.3. Houston averages 111.1 points and allows 102.9. These teams are evenly matched, as Toronto has more than enough firepower and depth to hang with the Rockets tonight. For me it boils down to which side is “hungrier.” I like Toronto to battle tough and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. |
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11-13-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -2 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland Trailblazers. The Nuggets look poised for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. So far Denver has averaged 106.2 PPG and given up 105.1, led by Nikola Jokic, with 17.2 points and 12 boards per game. Denver is 8-5, but Portland is just 6-6. The Blazers average 105.5 PPG and allow 100.7. Damian Lillard averages 25.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum adds 22.9 points and 4.3 boards. With three whole nights off after this game and after playing six straight at home, I absolutely believe that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors. The Blazers on the other hand have lost two straight and certainly won’t be lacking motivation today. I like the “hungrier” side to find a way to get the job done tonight. Blazers roll. |
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11-13-17 | Montana v. Pittsburgh -4.5 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh. Montanta comes in off a 72-60 win over lowly Whitworth. Ahmaad Rorie scored 21 points and dished out three assists, while Bobby Moorehead chipped in 14 points and nine boards. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five on the road, but they now face a hungry Pitt team which comes in off a tough 71-62 loss to Navy in its opener. Jared Wilson-Frame was a standout in the setback, pouring in 20 points, while Ryan Luther added 14 points and four assists. After the loss to Navy, I like the Panthers to bounce back at home here. Pitt has big expectations this year and it looked shaky overall in the loss to the Mids. But a game at home against the Grizzlies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion, as this is a favorable matchup for the Panthers across the board. Lay the points, Pittsburgh rolls. |
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11-12-17 | Pacific v. Stanford -20.5 | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Stanford comes in off a solid 78-62 win over Cal Poly on Friday and I expect it to carry over that momentum. Reid Travis was tremendous in that one, finishing with 26 points and 12 boards. The Cardinal looked great in trransition, outscoring the Mustangs 11-2 on second-chance points, led by Travis with six offensive boards. A tough season opener for Pacific, which endured a terrible 2016/17 and which bowed out in the second round of the conference tournament. Travis presents a matchup problem for the Tigers. This one has blowout written all over it. Cardinal roll. |
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11-11-17 | Portland State v. Portland -1 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland. It’s a revenge game for Portland after it fell 77-76 to Portland State last December 20th. PSU has a new coach in Barret Peery, who comes in after serving as an assistant at Santa Clara. The Vikings aren’t expected to do so well this year, picked to finish eighth in the Big Sky Preseason Coaches Poll. In all Portland State returns two starters and eight lettermen, while bringing in seven new faces. Braxton Tucker (16.8) and Deontae North (13.7) are standouts. In the Pilots final tune-up (76-70 loss to Eastern Washington), Phillipp Hartwich had 15 points and 13 boards. Portland is coached by ex Trail Blazer Terry Porter, whose nine player incoming class has been ranked among the top recruiting classes in the nation. I think Portland is the deeper, better coached team which has the clear “revenge factor” advantage working in its favor. Home floor can’t be overlooked either. Pilots roll. |
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11-11-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 207 | Top | 96-111 | Push | 0 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the under Grizzlies/Rockets. Memphis has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, most recently coming in off a 98-97 road win at Portland. The Grizz are 7-4 overall, inclding 3-2 on the road. With another matchup at Milwaukee on Monday night, the last thing the visitors can do is to try and match pace with the high-flying Rockets. And that was exactly the plan that Memphis used in its 103-89 win over Houston back on October 28th. Houston meanwhile could be poised for a bit of a mental lapse. And how could you blame it? The Rockets have been on fire of late, winning four straight, most recently a high-scoring 117-113 decision at home over the Cavs. With a game tomorrow night in Indianapolis, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets “saving some” for that difficult outing as well. This number is a little high, play the under. |
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11-10-17 | Heat v. Jazz -3 | Top | 84-74 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Utah Jazz. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, as Miami averages 103.5 PPG, while Utah averages only 99.1 PPG. The Heat look poised for a letdown here in my opinion though after their 126-115 victory over the Suns on Wednesday. This is also the fifth game of a tough six game road trip, one which has seen the Heat exchanges losses with victories. Despite their losing streak though, the Jazz remain one of the top defensive clubs in the league and here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Miami is content, tired and struggles offensively on the best of nights. I’m banking on a determined Jazz team to do more than enough to cover this spread. |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Orlando Magic. The Knicks are going to be gassed in the second game of the back-to-back with Charlotte at home on Tuesday night. The Knicks are for the most part an entirely different team without Carmelo Anthony directing the show, but they’re still only 1-4 ATS in their last five in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with a much more winnable game at home against the lowly Kings on deck (the start of an extended home stand), it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also getting caught looking ahead to that favorable part of their schedule. Orlando won’t be leaving anything for granted after two straight losses, most recently a humbling 104-88 defeat to the league leading Celtics. The Knicks are averaging 104.7 PPG and allowing 104.9. The Magic average 109 PPG and allow 106.3. Seven of New York’s first ten games have come at home though and the road has not been kind to the Knicks over the years. I think that’ll again be the case here against this focused and hungry Magic team. Lay the points. |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP on under Celtics/Hawks. I’m expecting both teams to come in flat footed here as each played on Sunday night. Boston leads the East behind smothering defensive play, but finds itself up against the second highest-scoring offense in the league in the Magic on Sunday. Orlando won’t be sitting back and letting the Celtics dictate the flow, rather the Magic will be pushing the pace from start to finish to get the C’s out of their comfort zone. Kyrie Irving and company are going to be “gassed” after their team’s super fast start and on the tail end of the back-to-back. The Hawks on the other hand are just downright terrible (especially on the offensive end, ranked among the very worst) and play in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. Things don’t get any easier for Atlanta, as after Boston the Hawks head out on an extended road trip. I think points will be at a premium in this one, play the under. |
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11-05-17 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 202.5 | Top | 110-137 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on the under Jazz/Rockets. Utah leads the league on the defensive side of the ball. It’s coming off a four game home stand in which it went 3-1. After this game, the Jazz are once again at home for four straight. Perhaps surprisingly, after seeing the under hit seven straight times, the Jazz have now seen it go over in three straight. Houston returns home after a short two game trip, but with two whole nights off before a date with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught looking ahead. I’m banking on the Jazz slowing this one down whenever possible as they try to dictate the pace, rather than let James Harden turn it into a run-and-gun shootout. Play the under. |
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11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic OVER 205 | Top | 105-83 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on over Bulls/Magic. Two teams which find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum collide on Friday night. The Bulls have lost two straight, most recently falling 97-91 on the road to the Heat on Wednesday, while the Magic have won two straight (and five of their last six) after getting the better of the Grizzlies 101-99 on the road Wednesday. Let’s face it, Chicago has struggled to put the ball in the basket this year, it averages a league low 90 PPG so far. Perhaps surprisingly I think though considering it’s ranked third in rebounding. Overall Chicago ranks eighth defensively in allowing 101.2 PPG and it’s led by Lauri Markkanen with 17.2 points and 9.3 boards per game. Orlando ranks second in the NBA with 114.9 PPG, while ranked 18th on the defensive side in conceding 106.8 points per game. The desperate Bulls are going to have their chances tonight, as Orlando looks to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Magic get the job done by committee, but are led by Evan Fournier with 22 PPG. In my opinion everything points to a wide open, run and gun shootout. Play the over. |
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11-02-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 218 | Top | 112-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
10* BLUE CHIP on under Warriors/Spurs. These are two teams which were picked to finish among the best in the tough Western Conference, but each has struggled with consistency to open the year, with Golden State at 5-3 and San Antonio at 4-3. After losing at home to the Pistons, the Warriors bounced back with a big 141-113 road win at the Clippers. The Spurs though will be looking to stop their recent three-game slide, most recently falling 108-94 on the road in Boston on Monday. The recipie for success for the Warriors is the same this year as it was last, push the pace and outscore their opponent. Golden State comes in as the highest scoring team in the league (121 points in the early going), and is ranked just 27th on the defensive end (conceding 114.1 per night.) The Spurs though rank 27th offensively (98.1) and seventh on the defensive side (allowing just 98.9.) Kawhi Leanord is still out for the Spurs, so LaMarcus Aldridge has been picking up the slack with 23.6 points and 8.4 boards per game. After three straight losses though, clearly San Antonio is going to be desperate. If the Spurs have any shot at an upset, they’re going to have to dictate the pace of the play, so expect to see a lot of half court sets from the home side while its on offense. I do indeed feel that the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under. |
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11-01-17 | Bucks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Charlotte Hornets. A great situational play here. Milwaukee is at home against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night and will clearly be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back. Charlotte has now won two straight in impressive fashion, beating Orlando 120-113 as a 4-point favorite, before then taking down Memphis 104-99 on the road Monday. Now throw in the fact that the Hornets play with the immediate “revenge” factor after losing to Milwaukee 103-94 on November 23rd and I think this line could easily be a lot larger. I’m banking on Charlotte to keep the good times roling and to avenge the earlier setback. |
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets -4 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). I previously successfully backed the Suns a couple of times, as I felt they were offering excellent line value and also as I felt they were in strong situational spots. Here, however, they're on the road while up against a superior team. They're not getting very many points and they're unlikely to "catch their opponent napping." Indeed, off back-to-back losses, the Nets are going to come in hungry. Knowing that they start a 5-game road trip after this, one which includes a stop at Phoenix on 11/6, expect the Nets, 33-16-1 ATS their past 50 against the Pacific Division, to take care of business tonight, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-30-17 | Warriors v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/LAC to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This O/U line may initially appear high. However, it could easily be even higher. The last two meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 229.5 and 230, both much higher than tonight's number. Yet, that still wasn't high enough; those games produced 236 and 253 combined points. The Warriors have scored triple-digits in every game and they've also allowed triple-digits. While the Clippers are off a low-scoring game against Detroit, they'd previously also hit triple-digits in every game. They know they're going to need to score to keep up with the champs, who are always looking to push the pace. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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10-29-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). The Warriors are 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) through their first three games here at Oracle. All three have been close. Tonight, however, I expect them to break through with their first home "blowout" win of the season. While the Warriors, who expect to have Livingston back, had last night off, the Pistons are off a late game at LA against the Clippers. (They'll return to LA for a Halloween game against the Lakers.) Playing the second of b2b road games is often tough. I expect it to be particularly difficult against the champs, who will be looking to run their guests right out of the building. The Warriors won last season's meeting here by 20. All signs point to another lopsided affair. |
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10-28-17 | Celtics v. Heat +2 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Its true that the Celtics have dominated the Heat in recent seasons. They swept them 4-0 last season. With Boston off three straight wins, many are likely going to expect that series dominance to continue this evening. I'm not one of them, as I expect the Heat to rise to the occasion and get some payback. While it would obviously be nice to have Whiteside back, I like the matchup that (7-foot, 240-pound) Kelly Olynyk presents against his former team. While they lost to the Spurs last time out, the Heat are still 2-0 at home against Eastern Conference teams. What about the Celtics' 3-game winning streak? With Boston managing a 10-27 ATS record the past 2+ seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games, I'm not too worried about it. I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. |
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10-27-17 | Nets v. Knicks -1 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. Its been a tough start to the season for the Knicks. It doesnt get any easier after this either. Next up comes Cleveland, Denver and Houston. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more imperative. While the Nets are 3-0 at home, they're also 0-2 on the road. Those losses came at Orlando and Indiana, not exactly the most intimidating venues. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. Expect them to rise to the occaison and improve on those stats Friday night. |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/LA to finish OVER the total. These teams have both been kind to 'under' bettors so far this season. Those early results have helped provide us with a relatively low O/U number for tonight's game. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Both teams can score. The Clippers are averaging 113.3 ppg, hitting for a 46.4% field goal mark. At an average of 112.7 ppg, the Blazers aren't far behind. The most recent meeting produced 241 points. While that was at LA, the most recent here at Portland produced 220. The OVER is 27-18-1 the past 46 times that the Blazers were off a double-digit win. During that span, the Blazers have also seen the OVER go 29-16-1 when facing an opponent which averages at least 106 points per game. Expect those stats to improve Thursday night. |
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10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). The Suns sure aren't getting much respect. Admittedly, Bledsoe is a talented player. However, its often better to play without a player, if that player doesn't actually want to be part of the team. Without Bledsoe in the lineup, the Suns stepped up and beat Sacramento last time out. Now, having had Tuesday off, the Suns catch the Jazz off a late game at LA. With their next five games on the road, the Suns know they need to take advantage of a winnable home game. All three of last season's meetings were decided by seven or fewer points, including a 5-point game here at Phoenix. In another one that could well come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the generous points with the home dog. |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Suns -1.5 | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* GAME OF MONTH). Off to an 0-3 SU/ATS start and with five of their next six on the road, the Suns badly need a victory. I feel that the Kings will provide them with the perfect opportunity. While they gave up a whopping 130 points last time out, the Suns were playing on the road and were playing the second of b2b games. Now, they're back home and have had a day off. Note that the Suns are a lucrative 23-9-2 ATS the past 34 times that they'd allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Its also worth noting that Phoenix is a profitable 39-24-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after a double-digit loss. The Kings have scored 100 or less in all three games and they managed only 79 last time out. This is a team which the Suns can handle and I expect them to do exactly that. |
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10-22-17 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 209 | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Minnesota OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I successfully played on the Thunder to finish below the total in their win over NY. That was against a team which I figured they would dominate though, I expected the Knicks to have trouble scoring. Last time out, OKC finished below the total once again, losing outright at Utah. The Thunder are back home now though and they're facing a team which should be able to trade points with them. The T-Wolves have faced a pair of stingy defensive teams themselves thus far, so should be happy to open things up a little more here. The last meeting between these teams produced 212 combined points. While we're getting a lower O/U line to work with today, I expect them to exceed that mark here. |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | Top | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). Both teams played last night, the Blazers won while the Bucks lost. I expect that to make the Bucks a little more "desperate" than their guests tonight. The Bucks took both meetings last season, including a 115-107 victory here at Milwaukee. They also beat the Blazers here the previous season. While the Blazers were 16-18 ATS when playing the second of b2b games the past couple of seasons, the Bucks were 21-17 ATS in that situation. Expect homecourt to make the difference, the Bucks bouncing back with a victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/OKC to finish UNDER the total. With Carmelo Anthony joining Westbrook and co to take on his old team, many are going to be expecting to see a ton of points tonight. While there's obviously a lot of offensive firepower out there, I personally believe that the O/U line will prove to be too high. Over the past couple of seasons, the Knicks have seen the UNDER go 36-24 when facing teams from the Western Conference. During that stretch, the Thunder have seen the UNDER go 35-23-2 against teams from the East. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the Knicks having trouble scoring and the UNDER improving to 43-24-1 the past 68 times that OKC played in the first half of the season. |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons -3 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one and I feel that the low line is offering us excellent value. The Pistons took three of four meetings last season, including both here at Detroit. Note that they were laying -5 and -5.5 for those games. The addition of Bradley should serve them well tonight. He's an excellent defender and is going to give the Charlotte rookies (Bacon and Monk) a difficult time. The Hornets were 14-27 on the road last season, while the Pistons were 24-17 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 103 to 98.9. Detroit wins, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-17-17 | Rockets v. Warriors -9 | Top | 122-121 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW (10* MAIN EVENT). Anyone waiting for the "Warriors' era" to come to an end is probably going to have to wait a long time. The team resigned Curry, Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, McGee, Pachulia and West while also bringing in Nick Young and Omri Casspi. They have the potential to be every bit as good as last season. The Rockets added Chris Paul in the offeseason. Any team with both Harden and Paul in the backcourt is obviously going to be dangerous. However, I'm betting that it will take at least a game or two for the chemistry to really be there. Remember, this Warrior team is a tight cohesive unit, a well-oiled machine, the players knowing exactly what to expect from each other. I'll be at the game, watching the ring ceremony. It should be a good one and I ultimately expect the Warriors to win by double-digits. *With this purchase, you will be helping the victims of the California fires. I will be donating part of the proceeds to the Napa Valley Community Disaster Relief Fund. Thank you for your support. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 232 | Top | 120-129 | Loss | -106 | 60 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cleveland/GS to finish UNDER the total, 10* TOTAL OF WEEK. With the last three games of this series all having finished above the number, we're getting an extremely generous O/U line, by far the highest of the series. I believe thats providing us with excellent value on the UNDER. Keep in mind that the O/U line was 222 for the last game here. The Cavs have only seen one road game all year with an O/U line of 230 or greater. (That 3/12 game, at Houston, had an O/U line of 235.5 and finished with 229.) The Warriors tend to elevate the defensive intensity when off an upset loss. In fact, the UNDER is 10-4 when they lost a game SU, when favored. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 8* MAIN EVENT. You already know the situation and have probably watched at least some of the series. The Warriors, still undefeated in the postseason, are now up 3-0 and going for the sweep. Most seem to think they'll get it, as the line is a little higher than it was here for Game 3. I've often been known to also jump on the team which is up 3-0. However, in this case, I feel that Lebron simply has too much pride to go down without a serious fight. The Cavs could have easily covered last game. I expect AT LEAST a cover here, the Cavs with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 10* MAIN EVENT. The Warriors obviously dominated the games out West and are looking very strong. That said, getting points with the Cavs at home, in a must-win game, is providing excellent value. The numbers are remarkably even, when we compare the Warriors' road stats to the Cavs' home stats. GS is 37-10 on the road. Cleveland is 36-11 at home. GS averages 113.8 ppg on the road. Cleveland averages 113 ppg at home. GS allows 105.4 ppg on the road. Cleveland allows 104.8 ppg at home. (The Cavs outscore teams by 8.2 ppg at home, while the Warriors outscore teams by 8.4 ppg on the road.) The Cavs are 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. The last time (4/2 at Indiana) it happened, they delivered a 20-point win their next game. The last time these teams met here was Christmas Day and the Cavs won by a single point. I'm not counting out James quite yet and in a game which could easily again come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Warriors have opened as bigger favorites for Game 2 than they were for the opening game. I feel thats providing excellent value on what should be a highly determined Cleveland team. Granted, the Warriors certainly looked impressive in the opener. I'm not counting the Cavs out for Game 2 though. Not even close. While the same can be said of the Warriors, this is a Cleveland team which has taken its game to another level and dominated these entire playoffs. Prior to Thursday's setback, the Cavs had only lost one of their previous 13 games. They responded to that one with a double-digit win (vs. Boston) next time out. Trailing for the first time in these playoffs, expect the champs to bounce back with at least a cover, improving to 6-4 ATS their last 10, when trailing in a playoff series. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 152 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/Clev. to finish UNDER the total 10* TOTAL OF MONTH. Obviously, both teams are extremely capable offensively. However, both are also better defensively than many realize. Opposing teams are connecting on only 41.6% of their shots against the Warriors in the playoffs, averaging just 102 ppg. The Cavs have also been pretty stingy. They've allowed 105 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games. A look at the regular season series reveals that both games stayed below the total. Each produced exactly 217 combined points. The UNDER was also 4-2-1 in last year's finals, 3-0-1 here at Golden State. A closer look reveals that NONE of those seven games finished with more than 216 combined points. The final combined scores of that series were as follows: 193, 187, 210, 205, 209, 216, 182. Note that Game 1 of that series had an O/U line of 211.5 but by Game 7 the number was down all the way to 204. With the UNDER at 35-16-2 (11-4 L15) the L53 times that the Cavs were listed as underdogs, this number is generously high. |
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05-25-17 | Cavs -10 v. Celtics | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing the Cavs for the first half 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR. After they blew a big lead and lost the previous game outright, the Cavs came out sluggishly in the first half of the last game. At the break, they found themselves trailing by double-digits. They finally "woke up" though and won the second half by 23 points. This being an elimination game, knowing the Warriors are already waiting for them, I expect Lebron and co. to smell the blood in the water. Trying to break Boston's will early, look for them to bring the same type of intensity they showed in the second half of the last game to the opening tip tonight. The Cavs were up by scores of 61-39 and 72-31 at the break in the first two games here. I expect them to have a healthy lead at the break once again. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cleveland to finish UNDER the total 10* TOTAL OF WEEK. We're in new territory here, as the Cavs are off their first loss of the playoffs. I expect them to respond with a dominant defensive effort. Even after the last game finished above the number, the UNDER is still 28-18 in Boston road games. The UNDER is still 9-3 the last 12 times that Boston played when trailing in a playoff series. Expect the absence of Thomas to catch up with the Celtics and for scoring to be an issue, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cleveland to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. The Celtics averaged just 95 points in the first two games. That was with Thomas and playing at home. Without Thomas and now playing on the road, scoring figures to be an issue. Note that the UNDER is now 9-2 the last 11 times that the Celtics were trailing in a playoff series. Boston road games have been lower-scoring than Boston home games. Not only do the Celtics score fewer points on the road, they also allow slightly less. Look for the Cavs to dominate defensively and the final combined score to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/SA UNDER the total 10* TOTAL OF WEEK. A change of venue and a few days off in between games figure to slow things down a little here. The Warriors have seen the UNDER go 29-16 on the road this season. After giving up 136 points last time out, the Spurs are obviously going to want/need to improve defensively. We have to go back a few years but the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that they'd allowed 130 or more in their previous game. This season's games here had final combined scores of 192 and 208. That 208 game slipped over the total, as the O/U line was only 206.5 or 207. However, the Warriors previous four visits here had all finished below the total. In fact, a closer look shows that the Warriors last nine visits here have ALL produced fewer than 210 combined points. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cleveland and Boston to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. Last game slipped over the total. The game was a blowout and that led to a little less defensive intensity than normal in the second half. Game 2 should be closer and I expect that to also lead to a slightly lower combined overall score. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 9-5 on the season, when off a double-digit loss. The last time that they lost by double-digits at home was in Game 2 of the Chicago series. They responded by holding the Bulls to just 87 points in the next game, that one easily staying below the total. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 the last 10 times that the Celtics were trailing in a playoff series. I expect those stats to improve on Friday night. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON 10* MAIN EVENT. Obviously, the Cavs are playing very well. Off that dominant effort in Game 1, many have already written this series off. While it will indeed be difficult to win the series, I'm not writing the Celtics off quite yet. Not for tonight, at least. This is still a team which is 35-14 at home. Meanwhile, the Cavs are still just 25-21 on the road. The Celtics are a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. I'm taking the points. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev/Boston to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. While there's no denying that both these teams can score, they don't necessarily get involved in high-scoring games, when matched up against other high-scoring teams. Two 2017 games between these teams produced 205 and 202 combined points. The UNDER is 14-9 on the season when the Cavs faced a team which averages 106 or more points. The UNDER is also 19-13-2 on the season when the Celtics faced a team which averages 106 or more points. Including the 114-91 game here on 4/5, the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that Cleveland has visited here. I expect those stats to improve here. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards +5 v. Celtics | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* BEST BET. After the first five games were all decided by "double-digits," the last game was decided by a single point. With everything on the line between two evenly matched teams, I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire. The fact that the teams had the weekend off figures to work in Washington's favor. The Celtics are just 6-11 ATS (7-10 SU) when playing with two day's rest this season. Thats pretty bad, considering how strong their overall record was. On the other hand, the Wizards are 9-6 ATS (10-5 SU) when doing so. I'm grabbing the points. |