Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I attended the season opener between these two teams, here at Oracle. You may recall that game, the crowd thought that the Warriors hit the game-winner at the buzzer but it was waved off, upon further review. Like that first game of the season, I also see tonight's pivotal game "coming down to the wire." Expect the Rockets to give the champs all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and improving to 12-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Celtics certainly looked like the better team through the first two games. However, I'm not counting out the Cavs just yet. Not by a long-shot. The Cavs are still 34-13 at home. They've beaten the Celtics five of the last six meetings on this floor and they won their last game here (against Toronto) by 35 points. Energized by the home crowd, Lebron and co. bounce back, picking up the cover along the way. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. A loss in Game 1 means that the Rockets have squandered the home-court advantage that they worked so hard for. All is not necessarily lost though, provided they bounce back with their best effort on Wednesday. Backs to the wall, I expect them to do exactly that. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Rockets are 44-10 the last 54 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. They're also 19-6 (SU) the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 11-3 their last 14 when off an 'upset' loss. While the champs have now won three straight, they're just 8-20-2 ATS the past 30 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Expect the Rockets to dig deep and to even up the series. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 225 | Top | 119-106 | Push | 0 | 124 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Houston to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). I had great seats for the opening night game of the season, featuring these two teams. At the time, it was already apparent that they were very likely to be meeting in the Western Conference Finals. Much has happened since that Oct. 17th meeting. Yet, here we are. You may recall that Harden and co. spoiled the Warriors' party that night, pulling off a 4th quarter comeback and winning 122-121. That game, needless to say, finished comfortably above the total. I fully expect Monday's series opener to do the same. Overall, this season's meetings averaged 236 combined points. Note that all three of those games had O/U lines in the 230s and that we're working with one in the 220s here. Curry back in the fold, the Warriors have hit triple-digits in five straight games. They scored 113 or more in four of those. Not surprising, given that they average 113 on the season. Despite facing a normally stingy Utah team in the last round, the Rockets have now hit triple-digits in scoring in 10 straight games. Both teams know that they're going to need to put up a big number to win tonight's game and neither is going to want to give an inch. Expect plenty of fireworks, the final combined score finishing above the number. |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Yesterday, I suggested that the Cavs "smelled the blood in the water." I feel the same way here. Up 3-1 and off a blowout win at New Orleans, the champs have found their groove. They're now 20-13 ATS (25-8 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Warriors know the importance of closing out the series and not giving the pesky Pelicans any sort of life. Expect them to pull away for a convincing victory. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 36 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Already down 0-2 in the series and down by double-digits in Game 3, it would have been easy for the Raptors to quit. They didn't do that. Rather, they showed their resilience and battled all the way back. Unfortunately, for Raptor fans, it still wasn't enough. Lebron hit another game-winner at the buzzer. The Raptors gave it everything they had in that Game 3 comeback. To have done so, only to have their hearts-broken in that manner, is going to be extremely tough to bounce back from. When they find themselves down double-digits in this one, which I expect to happen, fighting back is going to prove far more difficult. The Cavs smell the blood in the water and know they don't want to give the Raptors any life. Look for them to close things out, covering the small number along the way. |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). Both games at Boston finished above the total, the Celtics winning each. That's helped in providing us with a slightly higher O/U number than we'd be getting otherwise. It should also ensure we get a better defensive effort from the 76ers. There have only been two previous instances, since the start of February, where they were coming off b2b losses. In each case, they held their next opponent to 'double-digits,' both games staying below the total. While the Celtics allow the same number of points on the road as they do at home, the 76ers are considerably stingier on their home floor. Expect the lowest combined score of the series, to date. |
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05-04-18 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 209.5 | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Utah to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). This is by far the highest O/U line yet. I expect it to prove too high. The Rockets have seen the UNDER go 25-17 on the road. Meanwhile, the Jazz have seen the UNDER go 26-18 at home. While the UNDER is 9-6 when the Jazz were off an "upset" win, the UNDER is also 7-4 when the Rockets were attempting to avenge a home loss. Houston's last visit here produced just 181 points, a final score of 96-85. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Boston UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Off a relatively high-scoring opener, I expect to see increased defensive intensity in Game 2. Note that this is the highest O/U line that the Celtics have seen since they faced the Suns back in March. (That one had an O/U line of 208.5 and finished with 196.) The 76ers, who allowed 117 in the opener, have been excellent at bouncing back from a poor defensive effort with an improved defensive display in their next game. Thats led to the UNDER going 10-4 the last 14 times that they'd allowed 115 or more in their previous game. Before becoming too blinded by the Game 1 score, keep in mind that the last regular season meeting between these teams produced just 169 combined points. They'll get more than that tonight, just not enough to finish above the generously high number. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Houston to finish UNDER the total. The Jazz have failed to hit triple-digits in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Rockets have allowed 104 or less in seven of their last eight games. Utah has seen the UNDER go 11-5 when playing with exactly two day's rest. Likewise, Houston has seen the UNDER go 10-5 when playing with exactly two day's rest. Expect those stats to improve, Wednesday's combined final score proving lower than most will be expecting. |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
I''m playing on GS/NO to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While the opener finished above the total, I'm looking for a lower score in Game 2. While New Orleans' road games are now averaging 218.4 ppg, Golden State home games are averaging 217.8. Those are high numbers but not nearly as high as tonight's generously high number. The Warriors have seen the UNDER go 10-5 when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Pelicans have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when playing with two day's rest. Expect the champs to show that they can also dominate defensively, leading to the final combined score finishing below the big number. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they've cost me a couple of times, I still believe that the Cavs are the superior team in this matchup. With everything on the line, Lebron comes through. This time, covering the spread along the way. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 54 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Pelicans were certainly impressive in sweeping Portland. However, facing the defending champs on the road is a whole different matter. As of this writing, Curry remains doubtful for this game. While its possible that Curry could return, the Warriors current trio of Durant, Green and Thompson, along with their supporting cast, is more than enough to take care of business at Oracle. Note that the Warriors are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were a host in this series. While the Pelicans are 6-6 SU (4-8 ATS) their last 12 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Warriors are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they played with three or more day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs +1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). While I lost with the Cavs on Wednesday, I'm coming right back with them again here. Lebron's 3-pointer just before the buzzer was an absolute killer for the Pacers. They'd fought so hard, had rallied from a deficit, had shut the Cavs down only to get beaten in that manner. I expect it have a negative carry-over effect on the Pacers. The Cavs are 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Now that they're leading for the first time in this series, I expect them to finish things off. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt has certainly proven significant in this series. I expect that to be the case again this evening. While they failed to cover the last game here, the Bucks have won both games on this floor. They won those two games by an average of 13 points. Note that, as of this writing, this line is a little lower than the other lines were for the Bucks here. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. Expect the Bucks to extend the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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04-25-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Up 2-1 in the series, the Pacers had a real chance to also take Game 4. It didn't happen. Instead, Lebron, Korver and co. prevailed. Thats going to leave the Pacers thinking about "what might have been" while also serving as a "wake-up call" for the Cavs. Having fought so hard to regain homecourt advantage, dont expect the Cavs to just squander it. Rather, expect them to deliver their most lopsided victory of the playoffs, to date. |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 211.5 | Top | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Up 3-1, the 76ers will try and close things out. Favored by double-digits, there's a good chance that they'll do so. I believe that the value lies with the total though. The defense really picked up in the second half of the last game. Only 91 points were scored, the Heat managing just 41 of them. That level of defensive intensity figures to carry over into this elmination game. The UNDER is now 2-0 when the Heat were trailing in the series. That brings the UNDER to 4-1 the past five times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Expect those stats to improve Tuesday, as Game 5 proves to the lowest-scoring of the series. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I've won with both the 'under' (Game 1) and the 'over' (Game3) in this series. In Game 2, I backed the Rockets. For Game 4, however, I feel that the value lies with the T-Wolves. Minnesota nearly scored an upset in Game 1, showing it could compete with the top seed. Off that tough Game 1 loss, I wasn't surprised to see the T-Wolves struggle in Game 2. However, they responded with a great effort in Game 3. Now, they really have a series. Butler is a bit banged-up but he's as tough as they come. He still managed 28 points to go along with seven boards, five assists and a steal. Needless to say, he makes this team a lot better. Certainly better than your typical #8 seed. Off their Game 3 win, the Wolves now really believe that they can win. They're 31-11 at home, identical to the Rockets 31-11 record on the road. With the Rockets just 2-8 ATS their last 10, I'm grabbing all those generous points. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Toronto to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). With the first few games finishing above the number, the O/U lines keep getting higher and higher. I believe that this one will prove to be too high. Prior to this series, the Raptors had seen their recent first round matchups (the past couple of seasons) primarily finish below the total. The UNDER is still 10-6 their past three first round matchups, including this one. Friday's setback was just the Raptors' third loss in April. They allowed an average of only 92 points in their next game. Expect them to improve defensively and for that to lead to the final combined score staying below the generously high number. |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). After losing Game 1, the Heat responded with a big win in Game 2. After dropping Game 3, I expect them to again bounce back in Game 4. Including that Game 2 victory, note that the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Needless to say, the 76'ers have come along way. They've had a great season and are playing well. That said, as I noted when backing Miami in Game 2, this is 'new territory' for the 76'ers. They're not used to being in the playoffs and they're not used to leading in a playoff series. Look for a highly determined effort by the Heat, as they make the necessary adjustments, bouncing back and improving to 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a double-digit loss. |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Washington to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Two high-scoring games to open the series have resulted in a much higher O/U line for Game 3. With the series shifting to Washington, I'm expecting to see a lower score than we saw at Toronto. Consider that Toronto's last visit here had a final score of 102-95. Even with the first two games topping the total, the Raptors have still seen the UNDER go 10-5 their last 15 first round playoff games. Expect things to return to 'normal' here, the final combined score falling below the generously high number. |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +4 | Top | 110-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* MAIN EVENT). First off, condolences to the entire Popovich family on yesterday's passing of Erin Popovich. I won with the Warriors in Game 1. I'm not surprised that they're up 2-0. With or without their coach on the sidelines, I expect the Spurs to respond tonight. Eventually, the absence of Curry figures to catch up with the champs, if only for the game. I expect tonight to be that night. The Spurs have won 11 in a row here; their 33-8 home record ranked behind only Houston and Toronto. They're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off three or more consec. losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. |
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04-19-18 | Blazers +4 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-119 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND. As you know, the Pelicans won both games at Portland. That makes this a must win game for the Blazers. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Pelicans were no better at home than they were on the road this season and they allow more points here (111.9 ppg) than they do on the road. Even after dropping the first two games, the Blazers remain a healthy 54-30-1 ATS against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Both regular season meetings here were close, each decided by six or fewer points. The Blazers won outright their last visit here. Expect them to take this one down to the wire with an excellent shot at an upset. |
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04-18-18 | Wolves v. Rockets -10 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Some will look at Game 1 and see how close the T-Wolves came to scoring an upset. They'll use that as reason to back them in Game 2. However, its been my experience that big road underdogs which let an opportunity slip away in Game 1, typically don't fare too well in Game 2. Rather, the home favorite has received its 'wake-up call' and brings a better effort in the second game. Thats what I expect to happen on Wednesday. The T-Wolves get outscored on the road where they are now just 17-25 on the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, are 35-7 here at Houston, outscoring teams by an average score of 114.1 to 104.9. Fully 'woken up,' expect an even larger margin of victory here. |
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04-17-18 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Toronto to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). While Game 1 finished above the total, I'm expecting a lower-scoring second game. Note that the Raptors have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the past couple of seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors are unlikely to hit better than 53% from beyond the arc for a second straight game. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Raptors to also be stronger defensively. Coach Casey noted: "Defensively, there's a lot we have to clean up. They put us in certain situations where we want to handle things differently. We'll clean those up and make some adjustments and change some things with how we guarded certain things." Look for the final combined score to be lower than most will be expecting. |
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04-16-18 | Heat +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Heat were leading at halftime of Game 1 but wilted in the second half. Down a game, I fully expect them to battle for the entire four quarters on Monday. Keep in mind that this is new territory for the 76ers. As well as they've been playing, leading in a playoff series is a new experience for them. Also, note that Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS its last three, when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat are also 29-17 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit loss. Throw in a 4-0-1 ATS record the past five times that they allowed 130 or more points and I expect them to bounce back a huge effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover in Game 2. |
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04-15-18 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 217 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 76 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Houston to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). We think of the Rockets as a high-scoring team. However, a look at their recent games shows that their last four all produced 210 or fewer combined points, three of those finishing with less than 205. They've held seven of their last 11 opponents to double-digits. None of those teams scored more than 108 and 10 of them scored less than 105. While the T-Wolves allowed 106 last time out, five of those points came in OT. Prior to that, they'd allowed 100 or less in three straight. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected. |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers got back on track just when it mattered, earning a key win over the Jazz in the final game of the regular season. That got them this home game vs. the Pelicans and I expect them to make the most of it. Much stronger at home, the Blazers are also 10-4 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Expect the combination of homecourt and an advantage in the backcourt to lead to those numbers improving Saturday night. |
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04-11-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -3 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Jazz enter as the hotter team, I expect homecourt to ultimately make the difference tonight. While the Jazz are 20-20 on the road, the Blazers are 27-13 at home. Sure, the Blazers have lost four in a row. All those came on the road though. Back home, where they've gone 4-1 SU/ATS their last five against the Jazz, expect them to bounce back with their best effort. |
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04-10-18 | 76ers v. Hawks +10 | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Hawks are still playing hard. They beat Washington and Boston in their last two games. In addition to this being their home finale, its their final game of the year overall. They'll be anxious to give the fans a good effort. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a home game against Milwaukee on deck tomorrow, followed by the playoffs. They've come back to earth a little of late, as they've failed to cover in each of their last two games. Expect the Hawks to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to AT LEAST another ATS victory. |
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04-09-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers +7.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). As you're likely aware, the Pelicans need this game for playoff positioning while the Clippers have been eliminated from postseason contention. Obviously, thats why the Pelicans are favored by so many points, despite playing in the road. Many are going to be willing to lay the big number, too. They'll think that the Clippers are going to roll over. However, I don't expect that to be the case. Doc Rivers isn't that kind of coach. He knows that this game has playoff implications and he isn't going to allow his players to go through the motions. Rivers had this to say: "I think I have to play the guys against New Orleans, honestly. I think we really have to go after that game. I just believe in protecting the league. That's what we should do, and I hope we do that." Expect the Clippers to "come to play," bouncing back with their best effort and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. |
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04-08-18 | Pistons v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH). Playing their final home game of the season, I expect this game to mean more to the Grizzlies than it does to the Pistons. Detroit has actually played well recently. However, its a case of too little, too late. With their home finale on deck tomorrow, it's going to be hard for them to get up for a meaningless game against Memphis. The Grizzlies already played the Pistons tough at Detroit, losing by just two. Expect them to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover while providing the home fans with a small measure of hope for next season. |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 20-point loss, at Indiana, on Thursday, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. This is their regular season home finale, so they'll have some added motivation to close things out with a big win. While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Pelicans are off a game at Phoenix and playing their third game in the past four days. The Warriors have absolutely dominated New Orleans over the past five years. Expect that to continue here. |
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04-06-18 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 73-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* PERS FAV). The Raptors got back on track with a big win against Boston on Wednesday. That victory snapped an extended ATS skid and I expect them to build off it here. While the Raptors had last night off, the Pacers are off a victory over the defending champs. That game had been preceded by a 4-game trip out West for the Pacers, three games in California and the final game in the high altitude of Denver. This will mark the Pacers' seventh straight game in a different arena than the one in which they played their previous game. Playing their third in four nights, against a Raptor team which is a dominant 32-7 here at Toronto, expect it to catch up to them. Raptors roll. |
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04-05-18 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 212 | Top | 95-117 | Push | 0 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Utah to finish UNDER the total. The Clippers need this game in order to keep their (faint) playoff hopes alive. While that will likely cause some to grab the points, I feel that the total offers us the best value. The Jazz have seen their past three games top the number, which has helped in providing us with a generously high number. Note that the UNDER is 6-3 this season when the Jazz had seen their previous three games eclipse the total. The Jazz have held four of their past five opponents to 97 or fewer points and they've seen the UNDER go 24-15 at home for the season. Games here are averaging just 201 points. With the UNDER also at 9-4 when the Clippers were off an SU victory as a favorite, expect plenty of defensive intensity and for the final combined score to stay beneath the number. |
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04-04-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
I’m playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams played and lost yesterday. Today, I expect the Raptors to be the team which bounces back with a big win and cover. The home team has won all three meetings in the season series. The Raptors took the game here at Toronto by a dominating 111-91 score. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they hosted the Celtics. Expect them to continue that dominance, improving to 33-15 ATS their last 48 divisional games along the way. |
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04-03-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 207.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Milwaukee UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The Bucks have been on an 'over' streak but I expect that to come to an end this evening. Boston is allowing just 96 ppg its past five games, NONE of its last six opponents scoring more than 100 points. Listed as a slight underdog here, note that the UNDER is 12-7 when the Celtics are listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova/Michigan to finish UNDER the total. While the Wildcats have an excellent offense, they're also more than capable defensively. Here, they'll face an extremely stingy Michigan team which has now seen the UNDER go 8-2 its last 10 in this tournament. Villanova has seen four its last five tournament championship games fall below the total. The Wildcats have also seen the UNDER go 14-7 the past 21 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for those stats to improve here, the final combined score again proving lower than many will be expecting. |
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04-01-18 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 208.5 | Top | 88-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Orlando/Atlanta OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Admittedly, Orlando has had some trouble scoring recently. Today, however, they're facing an Atlanta team which has allowed each of its last five opponents to top the 100 point mark. Those five opponents averaged greater than 111 points. For the season, the Hawks are allowing an average of 112.6 ppg (48.1% fg) when facing a divisional opponent. Not to be outdone, the Magic are allowing 112.4 (47.9% fg) ppg in their divisional games. The Magic allow 110.6 ppg on the road while the Hawks allow 109 per game at home. The OVER was 11-2 when the Magic played in April the past two seasons. Once again, the Magic find themselves playing out the string in April. Facing an opponent which is in the same boat, don't expect to see much defensive intensity in this one. |
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03-31-18 | Warriors -8.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-96 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its true that the champs have struggled of late. Its true that Curry remains out. Iguodala, too. Don't expect that to slow them down Saturday night though. Off three straight losses and having dropped two of this season's three meetings against Sacramento, Durant and co. are going to be all business here. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 16, when off an 'upset' loss. They're also 29-20-1 ATS (39-11 SU) the past 50 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Dating back to 3/8 win over the Spurs, the Warriors have only won three games. All three of those victories came by double-digits. Expect another big win here. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova/Kansas UNDER the total (10* TOTAL MAIN EVENT). While I respect both offenses, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. Due to their skill on offense, people often forget that Villanova also allowed fewer points per game than any other team in the Big East. The Wildcats have held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 60 points. Going back a little further reveals that they've held six of their last seven opponents to 70 or less. Kansas was an underdog in its game against Duke but managed to score the upset. While Duke did score 81 points, nine of those came in OT. If that game didn't go to OT, the final combined score would have fallen well short of the total. Even with that game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a healthy 8-3 the last 11 times that the Jayhawks were listed as underdogs. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 46-20, excluding pushes, the last 66 times that Kansas was listed as an underdog. When these teams met in March a couple of years ago, the O/U line was in the mid 140s. Yet, the teams combined for just 123 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. |
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03-30-18 | Wolves v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). Off Wednesday's 10-point loss to the Lakers, I expect the Mavs to bounce back with their best effort on Friday. The Mavs are 12-4 ATS their last 16, off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 41-20-2 ATS their last 63 in that situaion. Having lost all three of this season's meetings with Minnesota, the Mavs are going to be hungry. A look at the Twolves last six road games reveals that NONE of them resulted in a victory of more than five points. In fact, they were just 2-4 SU in those six road games. With the T-Wolves just 6-14 ATS their last 20 overall and potentially looking ahead to their next game (Utah) I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded home team. |
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03-28-18 | Nets v. Magic +2 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). These teams have been involved in three close games this season. All three were decided by five points or less. In each case, the home team finished on top. Playing at home, where they've dominated the Nets in recent seasons, I expect the Magic to have the advantage this evening. While Orlando's 15-21 home record is certainly nothing to get excited about, its considerably better than the Nets 10-27 mark on the road. Expect the well-rested Magic to improve to 10-4 ATS their last 14, when facing a team which allows 106 or more points per game. |
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03-27-18 | Cavs v. Heat +3 | Top | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While the Cavs have won their past four, they've been terrible (15-40-1 ATS!) as favorites this season. The Heat, on the other hand, are a solid 22-15 ATS when listed in the underdog role. The Heat are also 41-22 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season. During that same stretch, Miami is also a healthy 70-48-2 ATS when playing in the revenge role. The Heat lost by two the last time these teams met. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah +1 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH (10* BEST BET). After failing to qualify for the 'Big Dance,' t would have been easy for either of these teams to pack it in. Neither have done so. Each has put together an impressive run to get here. I believe that that the Utes bring a little more to the table though. Off a victory over St. Mary's last game, note that Utah was only the second team (Gonzaga also did so) to defeat the Gaels on their home floor this season. The Hilltoppers have been all over the place this season. Costa Rica, Bahamas and last week in LA, prior to their visit to Stillwater. While they've had plenty of time off, I believe that all the travel will finally take a toll. Expect the Utes, last team left standing from the Pac-12, to finish on top. |
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03-26-18 | Nuggets +6 v. 76ers | Top | 104-123 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Back in late December, the 76ers upset the Nuggets, at Denver. I expect the revenge-minded Nuggets to bring their 'A game' for Monday's rematch. Note that Denver is an outstanding 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that it attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Its true that the Nuggets are playing Game 5 of a 7-game road trip. However, they've had the past two days off, after winning at both Chicago and Washington. Note that the Nuggets are 8-3 SU the last 11 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Knowing the final two games of the trip (at Toronto and at OKC) are going to be difficult, I expect the Nuggets to go all out here. Expect AT LEAST a cover, the Nuggets improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive road games. |
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03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder -2 | Top | 108-105 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Needless to say, this is a huge game in the Northwest Division. After a lengthy winning streak, the Blazers have dropped their last two. Facing a revenge-minded OKC team which is quietly playing some of its best basketball, I expect Portland's losing streak to reach three games. Off a win over Miami last time out, the Thunder have quietly won seven of their past eight. They were 5-2-1 ATS in those games. Having dropped all three games in the season series and sitting one game behind the Blazers in the standings, the Thunder are going to be extremely hungry. Their 26-11 home record is considerably better than Portland's 19-15 mark on the road. OKC finishes on top. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Wildcats are a very strong team. However, I believe the same can be said of the Red Raiders. Nova did pull away late for a double-digit win against WVU. However, the Mountaineers gave them all they could handle almost the entire way. Keep in mind that this may be the Raiders' best team. They've beaten Kansas this season and they're going to come in confident that they can win this game. Expect the Raiders to improve to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they played with one day's rest, or less, in between games. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan OVER 143 | Top | 54-58 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida State/Michigan to finish OVER the total (10* TOURNEY TOTAL OF YEAR). While the Wolverines may not reach 99 again, as they did against Texas A&M, they should still have plenty of offensive success. Prior to their dominating defense effort against Gonzaga, the Noles had allowed 70 or more points in eight of their previous nine. Note that FSU has seen the OVER go 10-3 the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in its previous game. Meanwhile, Michigan has now scored more than 70 in 10 of its last 12. The Noles should also have plenty of offensive success. They''ve scored 74 or more in seven of their last nine, topping the 80 mark in three of those. With an O/U line in the 140s, note that the OVER is 6-3 when Michigan played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that FSU has seen the OVER go 9-4 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. With both teams topping the 70 mark, expect that combined 15-7 'over' mark to improve Saturday night. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke -11.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE (10* SWEET 16 GOY) The Orange deserve a lot of credit for beating a good Michigan State team. Upsetting TCU was also impressive. In both cases, they were able to slow down the tempo and play excellent defense against an opponent which was unfamiliar with their style. This time, however, they face a team which knows how to beat them. The Blue Devils already hammered the Orange by 16 points a month ago. Including that loss, each of Syracuse's last three losses all came by 'double-digits,' each by a minimum of 15. While the Orange are obviously an extremely stingy team, the Blue Devils' advantage on the offensive side of the ball is much bigger. The Blue Devils are playing at a very high level right now; their last six victories have all been by double-digits. They've come by an average of 19.5 points |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were 2-0 against the Clippers last season, winning by an average of 15 points per game. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to finish on top again this evening. The Pacers had yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Additionally, they haven't played back-to-back games (two games in two days) for more than two weeks. Off a loss last time out and knowing they'll face these same Clippers in less than a week, at LA, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Pacers. The Clippers also had yesterday off. However, unlike their hosts, they've had to play b2b games a couple of times recently. That means that this will mark their sixth game in the past nine days. The Pacers are 21-11 ATS (25-7 SU) when listed as favorites. Expect a win and cover for the home team. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 84 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on K-STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Kentucky comes in on a roll. Always well coached and with always loaded with excellent athletes, Kentucky has to feel fortunate with the way things are working out. I fully expect them to receive a very tough test here though. Note that prior to blowing out Buffalo, which had been "trash-talking," Kentucky's previous three victories had all come by five or fewer points. I've stated several times that I felt the Big 12 was the strongest conference, "from top to bottom," this season. While they may have gotten a fortunate matchup with UMBC, with four teams from the Big 12 in the Sweet 16, its clear that the (K-State) Wildcats are "battle-tested" from conference play. KSU has been playing without its top player, Dean Wade. However, as of Monday morning, Wade stated the following: "I am like 98 percent sure I will play. I don't know if they can keep me out of this one. This is big time. I'm excited. It gives me another couple of days to heal. I am starting to feel a lot better. My day-by-day gets a lot better. This gives me a few more days to heal and recover." Its true that Kentucky has historically dominated K-State. However, Weber has been here before. His team has a score to settle and he's looking to prove his critics wrong. I expect Weber to have his team ready and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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03-22-18 | 76ers v. Magic +7 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO. I won with the Magic when they hosted the Raptors on Tuesday. At the time, I mentioned that they'd been quietlly competitive here at Orlando. Once again, they've got a favorable schedule. While they had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a Wednesday game vs. Memphis. Playing their third game in the past four days, it should be easy for the 76ers to take their hosts lightly. The Magic are going to be hungry though; the 76ers beat them by double-digits in each of this season's meetings and the Magic are going to be looking to show they can play with them. I'm grabbing the points. |
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03-21-18 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 127-120 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are considerably better at home than they are on the road. Monday's loss at Cleveland, which will have them in an 'angry' mood, dropped the Bucks to 15-19 on the road. However, they've won back-to-back games here at home, where they're a healthy 22-14. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Clippers are off a big 'TV' game at Minnesota. This will be their sixth straight road game. They'll be playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. With the schedule in their favor, expect the Bucks, who know they'll face these same Clippers at LA in less than a week, to bounce back with a big win and cover. |
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03-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +10 | Top | 93-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). With a game against the Cavs on deck tomorrow, it should be easy for the Raptors to look past the lowly Magic tonight. The Magic come in well-rested. Unlike their guests, they don't have to play tomorrow. Yes, the Raptors did beat them by 13 here a couple of weeks ago. However, that was the ONLY one of the the Magic's last 10 games, here at Orlando, which resulted in a double-digit loss. (Orlando was 5-5 in those games, the other four losses all came by nine or less.) Even with that result, the Magid are still a healthy 10-3 ATS their last 13 against teams which score 106 or more ppg. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-19-18 | Pistons v. Kings OVER 203.5 | Top | 106-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Sacramento to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). These teams combined for 207 points when they met back in November. That was when the season still had meaning. Now, with both teams playing out the string, I expect to see less defensive intensity and an even higher combined score. While Piston road games average 206.2 combined points, Sacramento home games average 208.5. Seven of the Pistons' past eight opponents have hit triple-digits while four of the Kings' past five opponents have hit double-digits. All things considered, this number is too low. |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -11.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU (10* 2ND RND GAME OF YEAR). The Mountaineers get a very favorable matchup here. I expect this well-coached team to take full advantage. The Herd come in hot and they're victory over Wichita State shows that they're worthy of respect. Still, the battle-tested Mountaineers, now 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 NCAA tournament games, 9-3 ATS when favored in the -9.5 to -12 range, are going to simply be too much for them. The Herd allowed an average of 79 ppg. Playing against much tougher opposition, the Mountaineers allowed 69 ppg. You may recall that these two schools, which are less than 200 miles apart, used to play each other twice annually. The series stopped a few years back (2014) and there was some bad blood in the process. After the Marshall coach said "we're back" and called him "afraid," WVU coach Huggins responded with: "He can say I'm afraid all he wants. I've probably coached 1,116 more games than he has. It's ridiculous to say something like that. We're afraid. Yeah, we're really afraid. It's crazy, you know? We’ve beaten Duke. Mike is a pretty good coach. Was I afraid? I wasn't afraid playing Duke. Played Boeheim. We used to play him every year. Great coach. I wasn't afraid. Why would I be afraid? The thing that’s most laughable, and I'll get in trouble for saying it I know, but I'm to the point in my life where I really don't care. How about this? ‘We're back.’ That was their sixth loss in a row. ‘We’re back.’ ‘We're back’ all right. Honestly it's laughable ..... " Huggins and the Mountaineers did get to face Marshall in 2015, after that exchange. WVU won by 18. Expect the Mountaineers, 14-7 ATS their last 21 (excluding pushes) lined games against teams which allow 77 or more points per game, to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way, en route to another convincing victory. |
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03-17-18 | Florida v. Texas Tech -1.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). The Red Raiders received a tougher test in the first round than the Gators. Those results have helped in keeping this line very low. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value with a very strong Texas Tech team. Sure, the Raiders were tested. That can be a good thing. They responded to that test by pulling away for a 10-point win, narrowly missing the cover. Note that they're 11-2 the past 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points, 21-4 their past 25 in that situation. The Big 12 was tough this season. Yet, the Raiders thrived. They hit 46.4% of their field goals on offense. Florida, by comparison, hits 43.4%. On the other side, the Gators allow opposing teams to hit 42.7% of their field goals, while allowing 69.2 ppg. Texas Tech, on the other hand, allows 64.6 ppg, opposing teams hitting a mere 40.6% of their field goals. Arguably stronger on both sides of the ball, expect the Red Raiders to punch their ticket for the next round, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-17-18 | Hornets v. Knicks +7 | Top | 101-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* BEST BET). As bad as the Knicks have been, I believe that they're providing us with plenty of value today. Even with a win last time out, the Hornets are still only 11-22 on the road. I don't believe that they should currently be "laying a touchdown" away from home, regardless of the venue. Note that the Knicks' 16-17 home record is considerably better than Charlotte's road record. Not surprisingly, the home team is already 2-0 in the season series. The Knicks won by five, as 2-point underdogs, in the earlier game here. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host in the series. With the Knicks at 3-1 ATS in home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or higher, I'm grabbing all those generous points. |
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03-16-18 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 222 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/LA to finish UNDER the total. This season's earlier meetings had O/U lines of 210 and 212.5. Tonight, we're getting a considerably higher number to work with. With the UNDER at 13-8 the past 21 times that the Thunder were off a double-digit win, I feel that big number is providing us with excellent value. Going back further finds the UNDER at 51-34 the past 85 times that OKC was off a double-digit win. During the same stretch, the Thunder have also seen the UNDER go 35-21 when off three or more consecutive victories. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-15-18 | Hornets v. Hawks +5 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hornets in their last game. However, tonight they're laying points, not getting them. That said, I now feel that the value has shifted to their opponent. While neither team will be going to the playoffs, the Hawks come in playing with 'triple revenge,' having lost all three of this season's earlier meetings. The Hornets have won just one of their past seven games and that lone SU victory was a non-cover at Phoenix. Off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take advantage of a struggling guest, now playing out the string. If not, it could be a long time before they win again. Expect the Hawks the hungrier team, as they earn AT LEAST a cover and improve to 12-6 ATS the past 18 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin v. Texas Tech -11 | Top | 60-70 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* GAME OF YEAR). From top-to-bottom, the Big 12 was arguably the best conference in the country this year. Despite playing in that highly competitive conference, Texas Tech still managed to earn 24 victories. Having been here four of the past five years and with Texas Tech slumping down the stretch, the Lumberjacks will be a popular upset pick. Don't buy into that. Expect the Red Raiders' much tougher schedule to pay dividends on Thursday evening, along with the fact that the game is being played in Dallas, the superior team pulling away for a convincing victory. |
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03-14-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Sure, the Lakers are playing well of late. However, getting the champs at this low a line, with the schedule in their favor, is a steal. Of course, the low line is a result of the injuries to Curry and Green. Obviously, those are two significant losses. However, Durant is still going to be the best player on the floor and he's still got enough of a supporting cast to take care of business here. Note that Kuzma hurt his ankle for LA in the third quarter of last night's game. He did return to play in the fourth but it was "clearly bothering him." (according to Lakers reporter Mike Trudel) Even if he goes, its going to be tough to be 100% effective, when playing the second game of a b2b situation, on an ankle thats anything less than 100%. Render him less effective than normal and the Lakers are in trouble; with Ingram out, Kuzma has been doing a lot for them. Either way, note that the Lakers are just 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off b2b losses, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. They've only lost two in a row one other time this season and they responded with an 18-point win. The Warriors, whp are well-rested here, are 13-1 SU their last 14, off a loss when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-14-18 | Harvard +12 v. Marquette | Top | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on HARVARD (10* BEST BET). Both teams are disappointed to be here. However, while Harvard has itself - and perhaps fate (Seth Jones injury) the Golden Eagles are feeling 'snubbed.' As of this writing, the status of Harvard's Seth Jones remains up in the air. He's a great player and the Crimson could certainly use him tonight. While he was in pain when he left the game against Penn, the knee injury didn't appear that bad - he was also seen shooting on the sidelines of yesterday's practice. So, its definiitely possible that he goes. Either way, the Crimson are an extrenely stingy team. They allow 66.5 ppg. By comparison, Marquette allows 78.5 ppg. Harvard limits opposing teams to a 42.2% fg shooting percentage. Marquette, on the other hand, allows teams to connect on 47.6% of their field goals. With Harvard its last 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog and Marquette feeling disappointed/snubbed at not making the NCAA Tournament, I'm grabbing all those generous points with the superior defensive team. |
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03-13-18 | Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA GULF COAST (10* MISMATCH). Do the Cowboys deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably, in my opinion. Regardless of what side of that debate you might be on, they absolutely feel snubbed. Of course, they'll say all the right things about still wanting to come and show everybody how good they are tonight. They surely want to do exactly that. After suffering that type of disappointment and dealing with all the emotion, thats a lot easier said than done though. Regardless of what they say, its likely going to be hard for them to get up for this game. The Eagles have absolutely thrived (20-5 ATS L25!) as underdogs over the years and they've also had plenty of succes in March. Having score more than 90 points nine different times this season, this is a team which can score points with the best of them. While they'd also like to be in the NCAA Tournament, at least they know its their fault they're not there. I expect them to be the hungrier team tonight and am grabbing all the points I can get. |
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03-13-18 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 204.5 | Top | 72-108 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/Orlando to finish OVER the total (10* TOP TOTAL). With Popovich coaching this team for so long, we get a lot of relevant historical data to work with. We can use that to look at specific situations. For example, how do the Spurs usually respond to a double-digit loss? What happens when they're on a losing streak? etc. Lets start by taking a look at the answers to those two questions. With last night's 109-93 loss marking their third straight defeat, note that the Spurs have seen the OVER go 42-28, excluding pushes, the past 70 times that they'd lost their previous three or more games. During that same stretch, note that the OVER is also a lucrative 143-101, when the Spurs were off a double-digit loss. Its also worth noting that the OVER is 7-4-1 the past dozen times that the Spurs were playing the second of b2b games. Facing a non-playoff team from the Eastern Conf, expect the Spurs to bounce back in a relatively high-scoring affair. |
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03-12-18 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 208.5 | Top | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/HOUSTON to finish OVER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). While recent games have fallen below the total for both teams, I believe this number will prove to be too low. San Antonio's last trip here resulted in 233 combined points being scored. The OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that the Rockets were off three consec. road games. The OVER is also 12-7 the past 19 times that the Spurs attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low total. |
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03-11-18 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 215.5 | Top | 129-122 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Chicago to finish OVER the total (10* BEST BET). With both teams long out of playoff contention, I don't expect to see much defensive intensity Sunday afternoon. The Hawks have played a few lower-scoring games on the road. However, their recent home games have quietly been very high-scoring. In fact, their last six home games had combined scores of 230, 233, 227, 209, 223 and 225. Thats an average of 224.5 ppg. Yet, despite the recent high-scoring games here, as of this writing, the O/U line is lower than it was when the Hawks hosted the Bulls back in January. The Bulls did manage only 83 points, at Detroit, last time out. However, the OVER is 3-1 the last four times that they scored 85 or fewer points, 7-4 their last 11 in that situation. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the number. |
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03-11-18 | Davidson v. Rhode Island -2 | Top | 58-57 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams split a pair of regular season meetings, each winning on its home floor. I expect the Rams to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While Davidson is playing well, I don't think the Rams are getting enough respect. Not only are they the #1 seed but they're also the defending champs. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are in their first finals since coming over to the A-10. Look for the Rams' big game experience and championship pedigree to show through, as they become the first repeat A-10 champs since Temple did so from 2008-2010, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-10-18 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 210.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/OKC to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). After facing some high-scoring teams (Houston and Portland) the Thunder got back to playing defense last time out. Facing the lowly Suns, they allowed just 87 points. While the Spurs allowed 110 last time out, that was at Golden State. So, that wasn't that bad an effort - the game still fell below the total. Even including that result, SA road games are still averaging just 198.7 points on the season, the majority staying below the total. (The 'under' is 20-13-1 in their road games.) The last meeting between these teams was here back in December. That game, which had an O/U of 200, finished with a score of 90-87. We're getting a far more generous O/U line to work with this evening and I look for the final score to again prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia -4 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs already dominated the Tar Heels in the regular season meeting. I expect them to finish on top once again this evening. UNC is just 5-9-1 ATS its last 15 tournament championship games. The Tar Heels are also just 4-6-2 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. Of course, at just 53.1 ppg allowed, Virginia falls into that category. Defense wins champiionships. At least, today in the ACC. Expect the #1 seed to make a statement. |
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03-09-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF WEEK). The home team has easily won both meetings so far this season. The Lakers won by 18, at LA. The Nuggets won by 15, here at Denver. Not surprising, given that the Nuggets have a 24-10 record here, as compared to an 11-20 mark on the road.The teams will face each other again, at LA, on Tuesday. Knowing that to be the case, I expect the Nuggets to go all out to again "hold serve" at home. Not only do the Nuggets score more than 111 ppg here, they also allow just 105.6 ppg. By comparison, the Lakers allow a whopping 113.4 ppg on the road. Off b2b losses and with four losses in their past six games, the Nuggets are going to be hungry. Expect them to bounce back, improving to 9-4 the last 13 times that they were off an "upset" loss, while covering the reasonable number along the way. |
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03-09-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -1.5 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* PERS FAV). The Eagles may have had the edge in the regular season. However, I expect the Rockets to emerge victorious, when it really matters. Both teams won yesterday. Eastern Michigan beat Akron by nine points. Toledo won by only two, against Miami Ohio. While the Eagles' win was arguably more impressive, I expect Toledo's very close margin of victory to work in its favor here. Its also worth pointing out that the Rockets are an outstanding 46-24 ATS their last 70 lined games, when playing with one day or less of rest in between games. (During the same stretch, Eastern Michigan is just 31-44 ATS when doing so.) Thats ancient history though. Right now, this year's Toledo team scores 80.1 ppg on the road while Eastern Michigan score just 68.7 ppg on the road. Expect the Rockets to dictate tempo and for them to finish on top. |
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03-08-18 | UAB v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | Top | 70-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on WKU (10* VIOLATOR). The Blazers managed to eke out a cover yesterday. However, they're stepping up significantly in class here and I expect them to stumble. WKU is 3-0 ATS its last three on a neutral court and 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, after allowing 80 or more points in its previous game. Even with yesterday's victory, the Blazers are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 neutral site games. I'm laying the small number with what I consider to be the superior team. |
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03-08-18 | Nets v. Hornets -7 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. At the end of a road trip, the Nets figure to be already looking forward to getting home. Off four straight losses, the Hornets can't afford to look ahead to anything. They know that they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Hornets hosted the Nets a couple of weeks ago. Laying -8.5, they won by 15. Expect another double-digit victory here. |
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03-07-18 | Jazz v. Pacers OVER 199.5 | Top | 104-84 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Indiana to finish OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). This is by far the lowest O/U line on the Wednesday NBA board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Jazz have played higher-scoring games on the road than they have at home this season. While they score roughly the same amount on the road than they do at Salt Lake City, they allow a few more per game on the road. For the season, their road games are averaging 206.4 poings. Games here at Indiana are averaging greater than 211 combined points. (The Pacers score 107.2 ppg here and they allow 103.9 ppg.) Including last season's 107-100 meeting here, a game which had an O/U line in the 190s, the Pacers have seen the OVER go a lucrative 80-51-3 ATS against teams from the Northwest division over the years. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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03-07-18 | Oklahoma -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* PERS FAV). Its true that the Sooners had some trouble at the betting window, during the regular season. However, I believe that they'll prove to be a superior team than their instate rivals this evening. The Cowboys closed out the season off b2b wins. However, they haven't won three straight Big 12 games all season. While the Cowboys are 1-5 SU their past six March games, the Sooners are 9-2 SU their last 11 in March. They've got the much stronger offense (86 ppg vs. 76.9 ppg) and I expect that to ultimately prove the difference here. |
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03-06-18 | CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE (10* BIG SKY CONF TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR). The Hornets somehow managed to win both regular season meetings. However, when it really counts, I expect the Vikings to win big. Portland State had a good season, finishing with 19 wins. With four wins in their final five games, the Vikings come in with some positive momentum. With this game being played at Reno, a neutral site, its worth noting that this is a team which is comfortable playing away from home. In fact, they had a better record on the road than at home this season, the only team in the Big Sky which can make that claim. At the PK80 Invitational, a neutral site, the Vikings went toe-to-toe with the likes of Duke, Butler and Stanford. They were 3-0 ATS in those games, covering vs. Duke, very nearly upsetting Butler and beating Stanford outright. The Hornets, on the other hand, were a dismal 1-17 away from home, that lone win coming at Portland State. An experienced team, hungry to take the next step, expect the Vikings to avenge those regular season losses in convincing fashion. |
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03-06-18 | Heat v. Wizards OVER 203.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Miami to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This is by far the lowest O/U line on Tuesday's NBA board. Its also a lower O/U line than either of this season's previous meetings between the Heat and Wizards. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Heat played yesterday vs. Phoenix. Thats noteworthy as they've seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0, dating back to 12/30, when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Heat reached "triple-digits" in all seven of those games, averaging greater than 110 ppg. They allowed tripled digits in six of the seven games, opponents averaging 106.4 ppg. Off three straight losses, the Wizards know they need to improve offensively. Expect them to do so, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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03-05-18 | Celtics v. Bulls +9 | Top | 105-89 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* VIOLATOR). I liked what I saw from the Bulls in their last game, a 108-100 win over Dallas. While Boston obviously represents a step up in class from the Mavs, I stil expect the Bulls to carry their positive momentum into this evening's game. Off a loss last time out, the Celtics are just 5-5 their past 10 games. The Bulls, who have had a couple days off since the Dallas win, are 7-4 ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 22-14 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. While they lost at Boston, the Bulls already beat the Celtics here. They were listed as 5.5 point underdogs yet won outright by 23. We're getting considerably more points to work with here and I expect AT LEAST another cover. |
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03-05-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams just faced each other here on Friday. Down at halftime, the Bobcats rallied for a 75-66 victory. They also won (92-87) when they hosted the RedHawks a few weeks ago. However, I expect the RedHawks to have the advantage this evening and feel that they're favored for good reason. Even factoring in Friday's result, the Bobcats are still just 3-11 on the road. They get outscored by an average of 79.5 to 71.1 on the road. On the other hand, the RedHawks are still 8-5 here at home, outscoring teams by average of more than 10 points (77.9 to 67) per game. The RedHawks are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to punch their ticket for the next round, at Cleveland, improving on those 'revenge' stats along the way. |
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03-04-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra UNDER 163 | Top | 93-88 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hofstra and UNC Wilmington to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). These teams met twice in February. The first game, on 2/1, had an O/U line of 158 and produced 172 points, a 96-76 blowout for Hofstra. UNC Wilmington returned the favor on 2/10, delivering a 20-point blowout win of their own. That one had an O/U line of 160.5 and produced 160 points. In today's rematch, we're getting an even higher O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. With eight days off in between games, UNCW coach C.B. McGrath has been focusing on improving his team's defense. McGrath noted: "The defensive stuff that we did helps against every team, not just Hofstra. It's just simple concepts that we need to keep drilling." Including the 2/10 result, which snuck below the number by half a point, Hofstra has seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 160s. Expect those stats to improve here, the final combined score finishing lower than many will be expecting. |
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03-03-18 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 205.5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/Miami to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This season's previous three meetings had O/U lines of 200, 199 and 200. This evening, due primarily to some recent high-scoring results from both teams, we're getting a much higher number to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Heat weren't at all happy with their defensive effort last time out. They'll be looking to improve on that side of the ball here. Note that the UNDER is 25-16-2 their past 43, when coming off a double-digit loss. Also, as their last game was against LA, its worth pointing out that the Heat have seen the UNDER go 16-5-1 the past 22 times that they were off a game against a team from the Western Conference, 53-28-1 the past 2+ seasons. Yesterday's 115 points allowed by the Pistons was deceiving, as 11 of those came in OT. In their previous game, they'd limited Milwaukee to 87 points. Both teams are in the bottom seven of the NBA in terms of points scored. Both are also in the top 10, in tems of fewest points allowed per game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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03-03-18 | Boston College v. Florida State -7.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* GAME OF YEAR). This is a huge game for the Seminoles and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. Senior guard Braian Angola had this to say: "It's one of the most important games of the season. We definitely need to win." Not only will the Noles be honoring their seniors but they'll also be looking to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. They could certainly use the extra win here. Also, any chance of avoiding playing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament relies on a victory here. Senior Phil Cofer noted: "I think myself and everyone else is definitely locked in. They know that we need this win to move on to the next thing." Look for the Noles, who were upset at BC in January, to send out their seniors in style, improving to 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the past seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. |
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03-02-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -10 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Cyclones upset the Sooners when these teams met at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the revenge-minded Sooners to return the favor. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are playing their final regular season home game AND that the Cyclones swept them last season and we should have an extremely motivated OU team. Note that the Sooners are 14-9 ATS (17-6 SU) the past 23 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Cyclones average 73 ppg on the road, while allowing more than 80. Expect them to be unable to keep up with a motivated Sooner team which averages 92.7 ppg here at home. Revenge-minded Sooners pull away for a double-digit win. |
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03-02-18 | Mavs v. Bulls +1.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). Talk about insulting. The Mavs are 7-20 on the road. Yet, they're favored (slightly) at Chicago. I expect the Bulls, 13-17 at home, to take that slight personally. With a 3-0 ATS mark their past three games, admittedly, the Mavs have played fairly well recently. However, playing hard against OKC, only to come up a point short in a 111-110 loss on Wednesday, figures to take a toll on them here. Plus, when you're playing out the string, its easier to get up for a home game against a conference opponent which is going to the playoffs, then for a road game against a non-conf, non-playoff opponent. The Bulls are 6-4 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Going back further finds them at 22-16 ATS, when off three or more consecutive losses. Expect them to take advantage of this favorable matchup. |
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03-01-18 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Portland to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). All three of this season's previous meetings finished above the total. Tonight, however, we're getting to work with the highest O/U line of any of those four games. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. It was more than a month ago when these teams last faced each other. Since then, the playoff race has heated and tigtened up. The T-Wolves lead the division but the Blazers are now only 1.5 games behind them. When they last met, the gap between them was much wider. I expect that to lead to increased intensity at the defensive end of the floor. Even factoring in the 1/24 game here which finished above the total, the Blazers have still seen the UNDER go 23-13 when listed as favorites this season. Expect those stats to improve on TNT on Thursday night. |
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03-01-18 | Valparaiso v. Missouri State -1 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE (10* MVC GAME OF YEAR). Teams from this "play in game" typically don't advance too far. However, the Bears aren't the typical "play in" team. Led by Alize Johnson (#1 in rebounding in the MVC, #5 in scoring) this team was, in fact, the preseason favorite in this conference. This is a team which defeated (25-5) Loyola, which ran away with the conference regular season title. The Bears beat the Crusaders by seven points, as an 8-point favorite, when the teams met in the regular season. While I still feel that they're the superior team, due to their poor finish, we're getting much better line value this time. With a chance at a "fresh start," expect the cream to rise to the top, Johnson and co. elevating their game and advancing to the next round. |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* GAME OF MONTH). I really like how this one sets up for the home team. One of the potential problems with betting on the Spurs, when they are playing either the front-end or the back-end, of a back-to-back situation, is that healthy starters often get rested. However, with this being an "isolated" game, thats unlikely to be the case here. Not only did the Spurs have the past couple of days off but they also get the next couple of nights off. In other words, while Leonard remains out indefinitely and Gasol may miss with injury, all "healthy" players should be good to go. With a 22-6 home record, they're still playing excellent basketball here. To their credit, the Pelicans have continued to play very well since Cousins went down. I expect a number of recent hard-fought OT games to catch up with them here though. After playing an OT game against Miami on the 23rd, the Pelicans played another OT game at Milwaukee two days later. Even with a day off Tuesday, this will still be their fourth game in the past six days. The Pelicans have actually beaten the Spurs in two of the past three meetings. However, all three of those games were at New Orleans. The Spurs have beaten the Pelicans each of the past five meetings here at San Antonio, taking each of last season's games here by double-digits. The Spurs have been "laying double-digits" in all four of the last four meetings here. We're getting a much lower line to work with here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. |
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02-28-18 | Fordham v. George Washington -9 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Colonials lost their last road game, a 62-53 setback at St. Louis. However, since an ugly loss to Davidson to begin the month, they've turned the corner here at home. Last game here, they beat Richmond by 26 points. Their previous game here saw them beat VCU by 24. Before that? An 11-point win over La Salle. Stepping down in class to face a Fordham team which has struggled all season, the Colonials have an opportunity to post another big win in their regular season home finale. I expect them to make the most of that opportunity. While the Rams may go all out to try and win Saturday's home finale, its been tough sledding on the road. Fordham averages less than 60 points per game away from home and its last four road losses have all come by double-digits. More of the same here. |
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02-27-18 | Clippers v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Given their outstanding home record, the Nuggets aren't getting much respect here. Even with a close loss 119-114 against Houston last time out, the Nuggets are still 24-8 here. Speaking of Houston. While the Nuggets have tomorrow off, the Clippers have a big showdown vs. the Rockets on deck tomorrow. The Nuggets, who beat the Clippers by double-digits each of the last two meetings (40 combined points) here, are 11-4 SU the past 15 times that they allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
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02-27-18 | Miami-OH v. Kent State -2 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE (10* MISMATCH). I believe that the Golden Flashes, who have dominated the RedHawks here over recent years, are going to want this one a little more than their guests. While Kent State will be playing its regular season home finale, Miami Ohio plays its home finale in its next game. The RedHawks' home finale will come against instate rival Ohio, which recently upset Miami Ohio. Speaking of "revenge games," the Golden Flashes will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Miami. The RedHawks are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. The Golden Flashes are 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past three times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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02-26-18 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -5.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Red Raiders have the higher ranking but I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. You may recall that WVU was ranked as high as #2 in the country this season. The Mountaineers achieved that ranking by winning 15 straight. The team that beat them? These same Red Raiders. Needless to say, WVU hasn't forgotten that 1-point loss. That led to a stretch where they lost five of six. The team is playing better now though, having won two in a row and five or seven. In addition to wanting to avenge the earlier loss and continue their current winning streak, the Mountaineers are playing their final home game of the regular season. The Mountaineers are going to want to close out their home season in style. Catching the Raiders off three straight losses, I expect them to do exactly that. |
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02-26-18 | Bulls v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 87-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. In a battle of struggling teams, I expect homecourt to again prove significant. While the Nets "only" get outscored by 3.2 ppg at home, the Bulls get outscored by 8.9 ppg when playing on the road. The Nets come in well-rested. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the past six times that they played with three or more day's worth of rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 14-9 ATS their past 23 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* MAIN EVENT). While they came up short vs. Charlotte on Friday, the Wizards have been decent without Wall. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I feel that they're offering excellent value on Sunday evening. While Washington had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a win against Orlando. They'll be playing their third game in four days here. The Wizards, who lost 122-105 on Friday, are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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02-25-18 | The Citadel v. Western Carolina -3.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Catamounts overcame a 16-point deficit to win 81-79 at Charleston back on 12/30. That result will likely have some backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. However, the Bulldogs are only 7-17 SU the past 24 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I believe this game will have significantly more meaning to the Catamounts. For starters, its their regular season home finale and the Catamounts will be honoring their six senior players. They'd like to send them out on a high note. Also, WCU badly wants to snap its losing streak, before entering the (conference) tournament. Perhaps most importantly, while the Bulldogs are already locked into a first round matchup, the Catamounts are trying to secure a top-6 seed. That's important as it would allow the Catamounts to avoid a first round game in the tournament. Note that WCU has won 12 of the last 14 meetings including four of the last five in Cullowhee. Also note that the Catamounts have thrived in the favorite role, going 13-4 ATS (15-2 SU) the past 17 times that they were laying points. Expect a highly motivated effort, as they improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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02-24-18 | Auburn v. Florida -2 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* GAME OF WEEK). If Ole Miss beats Tennessee this afternoon (Vols are -4) then Auburn will already have clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title. Regardless of what happens in that earlier matchup, I expect the Gators to be the team which comes ready to play. The Gators have dropped three in a row, for just the second time this season. With a road game on deck, they know they have to "stop the bleeding" here. Note that the Gators beat a strong Cincy team, the only previous time that they'd lost three in a row this season. Including that 66-60 victory, they're an impressive and profitable 34-14 ATS over the years, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games. That includes a 5-2 SU/ATS mark in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. While Auburn can score with the best of them, the Gators have arguably the superior defense. Expect them to rise to the occasion and come away with an important victory. |
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02-23-18 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 226 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Houston to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). These same teams just combined for 234 points, at Minnesota, prior to the break. After an extended layoff for both teams and with the venue switching to Houson, I'm expecting a lower-scoring rematch. When the Wolves visited here in January, the O/U line was 224.5. The teams combined for "only" 214 points, a 116-98 Houston win. Including that 1/18 result, the UNDER is 16-10 the past 26 times that Minnesota played a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. While these are obviously two very capable offenses, this number is generously high. Don't be surprised to see a little 'offensive rust,' after the long layoff, enough to keep the final combined score below the big number. |
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02-22-18 | 76ers v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won both meetings. I expect homecourt to again prove significant. With their 117-115 win here earlier, the Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host, 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) their last 10 in the series overall. While the 76ers, who had been hot, may have preferred to just keep playing, the break figures to have come at the right time for the Bulls. They're 8-2-1 ATS their last 11, when playing with three or more day's rest, 2-0-1 ATS their last three. Lets not forget that the Bulls still have more wins at home than the 76ers do on the road. All things considered, this number is generously high. I'm taking the points. |
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02-21-18 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh +9 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). If the Panthers want a chance of snapping their skid and earning a conference victory, this is their chance to get it. After tonight, their final two games come against Virginia and at Notre Dame. Needless to say, this represents a far more winnable game. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Panthers as they go all out to get the win. The Demon Deacons are 10-17, 3-9 away from home. The Deacons haven't won a road game in 2018. Their last road win came way back in mid-December and that was by only four points, at Coastal Carolina. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, note that Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s while Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS when doing so. Last February's game (at WF) was decided by only four points. The previous February's game here at Pitt. was decided by only five. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. |