Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-22 | St. Peter's v. Niagara OVER 123.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* OVER (MAAC TOY) The 6-6 Saint Peters' Peacocks enter on top form, having won 3 straight. Most recently it was a 65-57 win over Canisius. Isiah Dasher led the Peacocks with 17 points and 2 rebounds. The Niagara Purple Eagles are 8-8, but they've been playing well as well, with 5 straight wins. Most recently it was a 72-63 win over Manhattan. Noah Thomasson led the way with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Both teams have been playing to lots of low-scoring games, but I expect this competitive contest to be a shootout. Each team has been great of late, so expect that to translate into offensive production today; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Avalanche v. Kings +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
8* Kings puckline (TOP SHELF) I had a play on the Ducks on the puckline last night, and that, unfortunately, came up short in the Avs 2-0 win. They got a late goal in the third period to ruin the ATS cover. But fatigue will be a major issue here in the 2nd game of the B2B in my opinion. LA is 13-9-1 at home this season and it'll be super hungry here to break a 2-game slide. Most recently it was a 6-4 loss here at home to the Lightning. Previous to that the Kings had won 4 straight. With tough 6 games Eastern swing starting this weekend, LA will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. And while I do think the outright is possible, my official call will be to lay the price and grab the 1.5 goals on the puckline! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Pelicans +4 v. Knicks | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* PELICANS (ASSASSIN) I like the Pels here to sneak in under the radar. They're coming off a 104-92 loss to Boston. New York is off a 112-110 home loss to the Timberwolves. New Orleans had an 18 point halftime lead in its last game, but it stumbled down the stretch. The Knicks are just unable to close out anyone though, as evidenced by the last-second loss to Minnesota last time out. This New York offense has been consistently inconsistent all season and I think it'll have difficulties containing this hungry visiting side. This one comes down to the wire; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Texas State v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 138 | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SUNBELT TOY) I think this one sets up really nicely from a situational standpoint. Most of my Over/Under releases I base upon strong "situations," and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Arkansas Little Rock struggles to score at the best of times, but after nearly a two-week COVID hiatus, I firmly believe the Trojans will have a very slow start to this game offensively. Instead, I expect the home side to double down on the defensive end here against the Texas State Bobcats. To say this is a revenge game for the Bobcats would be an understatement, as ALRU has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, including all 4 games last year. Texas State rallied to beat UL Lafayette 72-68 last time out, but it's seen the total go under the number in 7 of its last 11 after an ATS home loss to a conference opponent. For all the reasons listed here, my official call on the total is definitely on the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Avalanche v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* DUCKS (PUCKLINE) Colorado is off a tight 4-3 shootout home win over Minnesota. It's won three in a row, but it faces a tough two-game stretch here as it's at LA tomorrow night. I say the Avs get caught looking ahead to that one. The Ducks play with revenge here after falling 4-2 at Colorado at the start of the month. Anaheim's great start is in the rear view mirror now, but it won't be lacking for motivation after losing 3 straight. Note that the Ducks are 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more losses in a row. Anaheim is also 8-3 in its last 11 after a shutout road loss (lost 3-0 at Chicago on the 15th.) With an extra couple days off, look for the Ducks to keep this one competitive until the final moments! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Georgia +22 v. Auburn | 60-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
8* GEORGIA (ROUT) Am I suggesting to play the Georgia Bulldogs on the money line here? Of course not. But I definitely think this is far too many points for Auburn to be giving up here. The Bulldogs will be super hungry after starting league play 0-6. Most recently it was a 73-66 loss to Vanderbilt. Auburn is 16-1 and it's coming off an 80-71 win over Ole Miss. Clearly, Auburn is the better team here, but with Kentucky coming to town this weekend, I say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half. It's a perfect set of off court circumstances working in favor of Georgia today. Also note that the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after 2 or more SU/ATS losses in a row; grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. Mavs | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
8* RAPTORS (ASSASSIN) I think this is a great spot bet on the hungry and undervalued Raptors here. Two nights after beating the Bucks by a score of 103-96, the Raptors fell 104-99 at Miami as 4-point dogs on Sunday. Dallas has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, but it needed to come from behind in its last game here to beat OKC by a score of 104-102 as 11.5-point favs. And with rival Phoenix coming to town tomorrow, starters could see more rest time than normal this evening against their feisty non-conference opponent. Dallas is playing in the shadow of Phoenix these days, so that's a game that it's had circled on the calendar. Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 99 or less points in. Expect that trend to continue here; grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Magic v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* OVER (EAST-CONF TOM) Orlando is a terrible team. It only averages 101.6 points per game and it's one of the worst defensive clubs as well. It's off a poor 98-88 loss at Orlando. The thing is, the Magic have responded well in this spot for "over" bettors, as Orlando has seen the total go over the number in 8 of its last 10 off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 points or less in. The Magic will be extra motivated here as well after falling 116-106 to the 76ers in earl January. Philadelphia has been playing decently, but it'll be eager to bounce back from a poor 117-98 loss at Washington in its latest (however note, the 76ers have seen the total eclipse the number in 10 of their last 14 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 points or less in.) Considering all of the above information, my official call is to play the over in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Colgate v. Bucknell +10.5 | Top | 75-56 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* BUCKNELL (MAULING) Bucknell is eager to stop an extended losing streak, and Colgate stands in its way. Colgate is the defending Patriot League champion, but it's had plenty of issues this season as well. The Bison have indeed dropped seven straight after a 63-55 setback at American most recently. On November 20th Colgate would post an amazing 100-85 win over Syracuse, but it would then go on to lose eight of its next nine games. It's since bounced back with wins over Army and Navy. Bucknell though has won its last 5 home games against Colgate, including a 71-70 nail-biter in the last matchup at Sojka Pavilion in 2020. Bucknell is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range as well. No outright here, but MUCH closer than expected; grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
10* NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN GOM). After 6 straight wins, I say that Wisconsin takes a step back here mentally finally against this hungry and tough Northwestern home side. The Badgers enter off a 78-68 win over Ohio State, while Northwestern is off a 64-62 win over Michigan State as 9.5-point underdogs. Wisconsin is led by Brad Davison. It averages 72. points per game, while allowing 65.1. The Wildcats will be hungry here though, as they lost 4 in a row previous to their most recent win. Northwestern averages 76.8 PPG, while allowing 68.3. The Badgers aren't a high-scoring team. I say the "wheels on the bus" finally fall off here. Look for NORTHWESTERN to build off its latest performance and to find a way to deliver here at home as well! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* KNICKS (NON-CONF GOM). The 21-22 Minnesota Timberwolves are off a huge 119-99 win over league-leading Golden State. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?! The Knicks have won six of their last ten games, but their three-game win streak was snapped in last night's 97-87 loss to a red-hot Chalotte team. With a game at Atlanta tomorrow night, the visitors are gonig to get classically caught "looking ahead" here. The 22-22 Knicks can't afford that same luxury though after last night's loss. Minnesota is still just 9-12 on the road, while New York is still 11-10 at home. Look for the hungry home side to deliver in friendly confines! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Islanders v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Isles/Flyers (TOW) The Islanders have been playing well of late, as they've won 7 of their last 10 games. That includes a 4-1 win over these very Flyers in Philadelphia last night. New York has seen the total go "under" in 5 straight, which is worth noting as the Isles have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. Philadelphia has seen the total fly "over" in six of its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 or less goals in. Expect a much faster-paced affair here; this one flies well over the number! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Suns v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Spurs (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Suns are 33-9 overall. They've won 3 straight. THey're off a 138-108 road win at Detroit. I think Phoenix gets caught looking past the Spurs though. San Antonio is without question the hungrier of these two teams. It's coming off a momentum-building 101-94 win over the Clippers. This is a double-revenge game as well already for the Spurs after dropping both earlier contests to Phoenix this season. With 2 nights off before a big game at Dallas to end this trip, the Suns also get caught looking-ahead in this one. Outright victory? I think entirely possible (so sprinkle a little on the ML as well!) That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with San Antonio! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 176 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER (WC TOTAL TOY) If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF MONTH Under Indiana/Nebraska The Hoosiers will be eager to return to their winning ways today after an 83-74 loss to Iowa last time out. Indiana has just one win on the road though. If Indiana is going to win this game, it won't be because of its offense. The Hoosiers average only 74.9 points per game, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 62.2. That defense catches a break here today as well, as Nebraska is only averaging 73.4 PPG, while allowing 79.2. Off a loss and on the road, we can expect Indiana to double down on its efforts on the defensive end; a great situational play on the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 152 h 11 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes would have been watching the Patriots and Bills game last night. Mahomes would have seen what Bills' QB Josh Allen did, by throwing for 308 yards and five TD's. And so we can absolutely bet that Mahomes will be to even better that performance here. KC has seen AT LEAST 46 points scored in its last 5 games and it's averaging a whopping 35.4 points per game over that stetch. So, we know that the Chiefs can score today at home, but does Ben Roethlisber have anything left in the tank? If this were being played in Pittsburgh, I'd likely lean to the "under," but the visiting side is going to be forced to open up the playbook tonight. The weather is going to cooperate tonight as well. All of the listed reasons above make the "over" the correct call here! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 224 | Top | 125-102 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (WEST-COAST EXPRESS) This is a big game for Utah, which enters having lost four straight (and the most recent was pretty pathetic, as the Jazz fell 111-91 at home to Cleveland of all teams.) The Jazz haven't won since a 115-109 win here back on January 5th. Since that loss to Utah, Denver has won four of its last five. That includes two huge offensive victories, first smashing an undermanned Portland 140-108, before destroying an undermanned Lakers side 133-96 in the its most recent. But the Nuggets now face a super focused Jazz team that I believe will look to slow the pace of this one down from start to finish. All of the above factors come together to make the "under" the savvy call here! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 0 m | Show |
10* EAGLES (A$$A$$IN) The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philadelphia back on October 14th. You've heard that old saying right, that "revenge is a dish best served cold?!" Outright victory?! Anything is possible, but in reality I am expecting this one to be extremely competitive. With a record of 9-8, the Eagles are happy to be here. Jalen Hurts and Jordan Howard are ready to go for the visiting side, but Tampa will be without RB Leonard Fournette and WR Antonio Brown (the former out with injury, the latter released from the team.) Philly won four of its last five games and I expect it to push Tom Brady and the defending champs to the brink today. The Bucs are filled with talent and experience, but I'll argue that the Eagles are the much "hungrier" team in this fight. No outright, but all signs point to this one being decided late; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Penguins v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
8* PUCK-LINE PLAY on the Sharks Pittsburgh is off a 6-2 loss at the Kings. With a much more high-profile game at Vegas on Monday though to end this road trip, I think the visitors classically get caught "looking ahead" in this one. The Sharks are much more determined here after their three-game win streak was snapped with a 3-0 loss here on Thursday (note though that SJ is 7-3 in its last ten off a shutout home loss.) This is a revenge game as well for SJ after it fell 8-5 at Pittsburgh on January 2nd. My official call here will be to lay the extra price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket; the play is the Sharks on the puck-line! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 20 m | Show |
10* PATRIOTS (WC GOY) I feel as if this play is slightly contrarian. The Patriots stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, while the Bills won their final 4 games to claim the AFC East title. These teams split their season series, each winning on the others field. If you're wagering on this contest, then you know the cast of characters on both sides. You know the strengths and the weaknesses of each team. You know the story lines. So why is Mac Jones and Bill Bellichick going to bounce back here and find a way to deliver? The Patriots have the offense (27.2 points) to keep pace with the Bills (28.4.) Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game as well from the visiting side as it looks to duplicate the success it had here in the first game between the clubs this season. I give a big nod to Josh Allen at QB in this matchup, but the Patriots get the nod for their run game. Defenses are equal. This one really is going to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so because of that gentlemen, let's grab up as many points as we can! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 221.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Raptors/Bucks (A$$A$$IN) Both teams have been playing to several "unders" of late, but I'm definitely expecting a MUCH more wide open contest this evening. The Raptors will be eager to atone for last night's listless 103-87 loss at the lowly Pistons. Note though, TO has seen the total go "over" the number in 17 of its last 26 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it scored 90 or fewer points in. The Bucks though will be extra-motivated here, as they play with revenge after falling 117-111 to the Raptors on January 5th. That total sailed WELL "over" the posted number of 221 and in my opinion, this one definitely will as well; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Florida International +7.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 39-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* FIU (BLOWOUT) Both teams are 10-6 SU. FIU is just 5-8-1 ATS, while MTSU is 10-2-2 ATS. I think these lop-sided trends start correcting themselves here though. FIU is off eight straight ATS losses, which is definitely significant to note as the Golden Panthers are still 14-7 ATS in their last 21 after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. Most recently it was an 84-56 setback to Auburn. That's also noteworthy, as FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS loss of 25 or more points. FIU plays with revenge here as well after a 67-56 loss to the Blue Raiders as 4-point favorites last year. MTSU has broken a two-game slide with B2B SU/ATS wins/covers, but note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven off a SU/ATS victory in which it held its opponent to 59 or fewer points in. Probably no outright, but definitely right down to the wire; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders +6.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 40 m | Show | |
8* RAIDERS (SPECIAL) While most of the public "Zigs" on this one, I'm going to "Zag." The majority of the public money is on Joe Burrow and the favored home side today, but I'm here to tell you that the sharp move in this contest is to go contrarian and back the "never say die" Raiders. Since a brutal loss to the Chiefs, the Raiders have posted four stright victories (its interesting to note that Las Vegas' QB Derek Carr has a better completion percentage and yards per pass this year than Justin Herbert.) Up until this last game, the Raiders were getting the job done with their tough defensive play. They rank in the top ten in limiting long passing plays. The Bengals have better offensive and defensive numbers. They were far from perfect this year either though, with a 41-22 blowout loss to the Chargers a couple of weeks ago. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 as an underdog though and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 350 or more yards in their previous game. Burrow and Jamar Chase may find a way to win this game, but it'll be decided in the final moments if they do; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Michigan +10 v. Illinois | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN (BLOWOUT) The Wolverines will be highly motivated here after their 75-67 loss to Rutgers. Overall they average 72.8 PPG, while allowing 66.8. The Illini average 80.8 PPG, while allowing 65.0. Hunter Dickinson averages 16.1 points per game for the Wolverines. Kofi Cockburn averages 22.0 for the Illini. With 13-2 Purdue coming to town on Monday, I expect Illinois to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Listen, I'm not calling for an outright win or anything like that at all, but expect Michigan to bounce back, fight hard and to keep this one close; grab all those points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Suns v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* PACERS (A$$A$$IN) Clearly, the Suns are the much better team in this matchup. However, I think that the situation and this spread favor the home side. The Suns are off a 99-95 road win at Toronto on Tuesday, but they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU road victory in which they held their opponent to 95 points or less in. Indiana had its three game ATS win streak snapped last time out in a 119-100 home loss, but note that it's 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 100 or less points in. With a "cream puff" at Detroit up next, the Suns are vulnerable here to a bit of a mental letdown as well. I say the Suns play down to the level of their competition here. Outright win? Probably not. But this one will definitely be decided in the final moments, so the official call will be to grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Panthers | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
10* STARS (NON-CONF PUCKLINE GOM) In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals on the cuff. The Stars are much better at home than on the road, but they enter on top form, having won 5 of their last 6, most recently smashing Seattle by a score of 5-2. The Panthers are 19-3 at home and have been great, but I think are now severely overpriced here. They're off a 5-2 win over Vancouver, but with Columbus coming to town tomorrow, they could be distracted here. The Stars' improved play is going under the radar here and we can take advantage for sure! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Penguins v. Kings +133 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 133 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Kings (10* NON-CONF GOM) Pittsburgh has played great this year. It comes to LA with only one loss in its last 12 games. The Penguins concede 2.46 GPG. But the feisty Kings have won 2 in a row and 4 of their last 5. LA has also been fantastic defensively, ranked fourth overall on that end of the ice. Evgeni Malkin is back for Pittsburgh, and that'll help out the Penguins in the second half of the season and in the playoffs. But LA is off a great 3-1 win over a red hot Rangers team and I expect a similar defensive effort here on home ice. I say the Pens get classically caught looking ahead to their final road games at San Jose and Vegas. A great spot bet on the undervalued underdog home side! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Wolves (A$$A$$IN) I like the Wolves to sneak in under the proverbial radar here and to, at the very least, give the red hot Grizz a run for their money today! Minnesota comes in off a 128-125 road loss at New Orleans on Tuesday. The Grizz are on a ten-game win streak and just knocked off league-leading Golden State by a score of 116-108 on Tuesday. Can anyone say classic "letdown" spot?! Both teams almost concede the identical number of points (Wolves allow 109.2, Grizzlies allow 107.9). Ja Morant and company are in unchartered territory right now and regression is imminent in my opinion. With Dallas coming to town tomorrow night, I also forsee the home side getting caught "looking past" its opponent. Outright win?! Maybe (consider sprinkling a little on the ML!) In the end though, my official call is to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Northern Kentucky +3.5 v. Youngstown State | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* NKU (MAULING) I look for the hungry 5-8 NKU Norse to give the 9-7 Youngstown Penguins a run for their money today! Both teams have been terrible of late, losing four of their last five. Each plays at a similar pace and their offensive and defensive numbers are also very comparable. However one thing to take note of here, is that NKU is actually 15th in the country in offensive rebounding, while the Penguins are 84th. These second-chance opportunities are going to be the difference-maker in this one. If history is any precedence, then NKU has to LOVING its chances here, as note that it has in fact won 8 of the last 10 matchups in this series. Outright victory?! With a spread like this, clearly that's a possibility. But all that said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Stars | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
10* KRAKEN on puck-line. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Kracken on the "puck line" today. The Kracken average 2.79 GPG. They're off a competitive 4-3 loss at Colorado. They've been competitive overall this year. They concede 3.68 GPG, but they do have potential in net. Dallas is off a 2-1 loss to St. Louis. The Stars average 2.81 GPG, while allowing 2.91. Dallas is better at home than on the road, but with a 2-game road swing featuring a B2B scenario at league-leading Florida and Tampa respectively up nexst, there's no question that this sets up as a potential "look ahead" spot for the home side. Lay the price, grab the extra 1.5 goals of insurance! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 226.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* OVER The Charlotte Hornets have been better than advertised this season. They're 22-19. They're also 14-9 against the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia is only 8-8 at home, but 23-16 overall. But the 76ers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, entering having won eight of their last ten. The Hornets are off a momentum-building 103-99 win over Milwaukee, which is noteworthy as they've seen the total fly above the posted number in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS win in which they held their opponent to 99 points or less in. The 76ers smashed the Rockets in their last game, hitting 45% from the floor. Look for these two "hot" teams to push the pace and then look for this total to fly well 'over' the number! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SEC TOY) I'm expecting a defensive affair in this one. Mississippi State is 10-4, while Georgia is 5-10. The Bulldogs though are looking to rebound here after an 82-72 loss at rival Mississippi this past weekend. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Georgia has lost five of it slast six and it's coming off a 15-point loss at Kentucky. Georgia plays at a slow pace, ranked 121st in the nation by KenPom. Mississippi State though plays to an even slower pace, ranked 316th. Mississippi State's strength is on the offensive side, but it's not going to have to keep the foot on the gas against this offensively challenged Georgia team. The last thing Georgia can do is turn this into a "track-meet," so I'm expecting a slower-pace overall. This number is a tad high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Suns -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* SUNS (ASSASSIN) The Suns are 30-9 and the Raptors are 20-17. Phoenix probably got caught looking ahead to its Eastern road swing in its 123-100 loss at home to Miami on Saturday. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here though in my opinion after its slim 105-101 home win over the lowly Pelicans. Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee are all back for the Suns now though after a stint on the COVID list. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have been fantastic for Toronto, but the home side does lack depth compared to Phoenix. Toronto has won six straight, and that fact has actually driven down this line in favor of Toronto. I say the Suns come prepared to play in the first game of their road trip. So lay the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-11-22 | DePaul v. Marquette UNDER 150.5 | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER (BE TOM) DePaul is off a 79-64 home loss to Villanova and I think it'll have difficulty on the offensive end again today. Marquette comes in off a 92-64 victory over Georgetown. DePaul has now dropped eight straight ranked games. Marquette is now 2-3 in league action after its latest victory. Note that the 28-point victory that the Golden Eagles had over the Hoyas was their largest-ever winning margin on the road in BIG EAST regular season play. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of regression here. The under has gone 7-1 in the Blue Demons last eight games following a double-digit loss as well. Expect a slower-pace, and ultimately a lower-scoring contest. AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +1 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
8* PLAY on Miami Ohio This the Redhawks first conference home game and they play with "double revenge" after dropping both contests against the Rockets last season. Toledo is 11-4, most recently beating NIU by a score of 94-63. But Miami Ohio is out to take out its frustrations as well after an OT loss against Bowling where it led by 9 at half-time. If history is any precedence though, then the RedHawks have to be loving their chances today as they're 42-20 all time at Oxford in this series. Look for Miami Ohio to keep the foot on the gas in the second half and to find a way to deliver on Tuesday! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 204 h 3 m | Show |
10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia. They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Pacers +7 v. Celtics | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* PACERS (ASSASSIN) This play is contrarian. The Pacers are 15-25, including only 3-15 on the road. The C's are 19-21, including 12-8 at home. Boston has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. Two nights after collapsing and losing 108-105 in New York, the C's won 99-75 at home over the Knicks. This is the opener of a home and home set and I expect Indiana to take it very seriously. Note that Boston is also just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which it held its opponent to 80 or fewer points in. Expect Indiana to build off its impressive 125-113 home win over Utah and to take this one right down to the wire! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro +3 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (GAME OF WEEK) This is a makeup game for one that was postponed on January 1st. This is UNCG's third game in five days and I believe the schedule actually benefits the home side. UNCG is off a 72-56 road win at VMI on Saturday, led by 18 points and 6 boards from Kobe Langley. Wofford is off a 68-57 road win at ETSU, led by 22 points from BJ Mack. UNCG is 5-1 at home this year though and it's held its last three opponents to under 60 points. This is an evenly matched contest, and in scenario's like that, I LOVE grabbing as many points as I can. And that's the play here, grab the points on UNCG! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Northeastern +7.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10* CAA GOY on Northeastern Northeastern is the hungrier "dog" in this fight. It comes in off 3 straight losses. Towson has had two cancelations of late, as well as conference loss to Drexel on Monday. Northeastern comes in rested after a week off. Most recently the Huskies fell 71-70 to William and Mary on New Year's Eve. Five players average double digits in scoring for Northeastern. Towson fell 65-61 in Drexel in its most recent outing, but it's still 9-5 overall. Towson has four double-digit scorers. Both teams are dealing with serious COVID issues, but Northeastern will be the healthier of the two now. Look for the much more determined visiting side to fight tooth and nail until the end. Grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Titans v. Texans +11 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
8* TEXANS. Tennessee has an opportunity to lock up top spot in the AFC here, but Houston won't roll over as it'll look to play spoiler. The Titans are averaging 24.4 points per game this year, while allowing 20.6. Tennessee is loaded with talent, but after going up early here, I expect it to take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal. Houston is averaging only 15.9 points per game, while allowing 26.5. Davis Mills has nothing to lose here. He's been decent in a difficult situation, as he has 2,363 passing yards, 13 TD's and 10 INT's. Houston has been favored twice on the road this year and it's gone 1-1 ATS in those spots. I look for Tennessee to win this game, but I expect Houston to put up a strong fight until the end; grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
10* LIONS (NFC NORTH GOY). Green Bay has already wrapped up the NFC No. 1 seed, so QB Aaron Rodgers may or may not see any time under center today. Why would Green Bay risk their top asset in a meaningless game? Or any of its assets, like WR Davante Adams. Jared Goff will likely sit for the Lions as well today, as there's no point risking his contract in this contest. That means that Tim Boyle will get another shot after facing the Seahawks last weekend (he had 262 yards passing, but also three picks.) Dan Campbell's men play hard for him and this will be a rare opportunity for his team to "steal" a win against Green Bay. The Packers could care less about this contest, while it would be a big boost to this Detroit side if it could pull off a SU upset and have something to build on after such a terrible season. Outright? Possibly! But let's grab the points, as the play is indeed on Detroit! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Spurs v. Nets OVER 230.5 | 119-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL on over Spurs/Nets. The Spurs won 99-97 at Boston, before then falling 119-100 at Philadelphia in their most recent matchup on Friday. The Spurs have been decent offensively this year, averaging 110.7 PPG. They'll have to be sharp again here against this Brooklyn Nets team that's gone just 1-4 SU in its last five and 0-5 ATS. Most recently it was a humbling 121-109 setback to the Bucks. Brooklyn averages 110.7 points per game and note that it's seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 20 after five or more ATS losses in a row. Pushing the pace is music to the Spurs' ears in this case. In what I predict to be faster-paced, up-tempo game, the sharp money as far as the total is concerned in my opinion is on the over! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Rangers v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER (Rangers/Ducks non-conference TOY) Perhaps surprisingly, these two teams are two of the best in their respective conferences. The Rangers are 22-9-4, just one game behind the Capitals, while the Ducks are 18-11-7, just four points shy of first-place Las Vegas. New York only averages 2.86 goals per game this year, which ranks 17th and goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is 6-4-2 with a 2.89 goals-against average and .904 save percentage. The Ducks are only allowing 2.74 GPG this year. Anaheim netminder Anthony Stoarz though is 6-2-1 with a 2.13 goals-against average and .932 save percentage. But these backups aren't as good as their respective starters. Also note that Anaheim has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect a more wide-open affair here, one that flies well "over" before the final horn sounds! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
UNDER (10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF MONTH) Miami is injured and dealing with covid issues, but it's still somehow finding ways to win, most recently holding on for a 115-109 road win at Portland. I expect a strong defensive performance from Miami today, as obviously the last thing it can afford to do here is to "open things up" against these high-flying Suns. Phoenix is off a 106-89 win over the Clippers at home. The Suns' defense looked fantastic and we can expect a similar performance here against this undermanned Miami side. This is the final home game before a tough five-game road swing for the Suns, which starts off in Toronto on Monday. Look for Phoenix to conserve some energy here and to "control" the pace of this one. This number is high, the play is the under for sure! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 51-26 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
UNDER (8*) Both teams have clinched a spot. Dallas is the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 402.8 yards of offense per game, but clearly, the last thing that the visiting side will do today is to put QB Dak Prescott too much into "harms way." This one means more to Dallas, as a win will improve its positioning, but a win or a loss here will mean nothing to Philadelphia. To make matters worse for the Eagles, over 15 starters are out because of covid-19 protocols. This one is going to be decided in the trenches. This one has more the feel of a "chess match," where field position is paramount. I don't predict much scoring in this one, so the pick is on the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
CHIEFS (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Chiefs were upset 34-31 to Cincinnati last weekend, but I think they'll bounce back here in this favorable spot. Denver has been eliminated from playoff contention after last weekend's 34-13 loss to the Chargers. KC is now in second spot in the AFC behind Tennessee, so this is a big game for Patrick Mahomes and company. What can the Broncos play spoiler for here? The Chiefs are in the playoffs already. There's zero motivating factors working for Drew Lock and the Broncos today. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while KC is 14-4 in its last 18 on the road and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 in this series. Look for KC to go up huge early and then coast to a relatively simple win and cover! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-08-22 | The Citadel +14.5 v. Chattanooga | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
THE CITADEL (10* SOUTHERN GAME OF YEAR). These teams split their season series last year, with each side winning on its home floor. Chattanooga will continue that trend today, as I am NOT calling for an outright upset here. That said, this is WAY too many points to be giving up in my opinion. Chattanooga is 12-3, most recently holding on for a 75-67 win over Wofford on Wednesday. Malachi Smith leads three players in double figures at 20.4 points per game. The Citadel average 82.6 points per game though, while the Mocs average 77.9. The difference is on the defensive end, but I expect the Bulldogs' up-tempo play to keep them in this one late. As I stated off the top, no outright victory for the visiting side here, but we can absolutely expect it to make it interesting! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
8* SLAM-DUNK on Butler. Xavier is 1-1 in league play, most recently coming in off a road loss at Villanova. Butler is also 1-1 in Big East action after falling to Seton Hall at home. Xavier comes to town off a 17-day layoff. In the loss to Villanova, Xavier actually held an 8-point half-time lead. Dwon Odom had 13 points. The Musketeers are 11-2, but I say that rest leads to rust tonight. The Bulldogs have had two games postponed due to COVID this year. In their last game they looked a bit rusty themselves, falling 71-56 to No. 24 Seton Hall. Butler has a big OT win over Oklahoma this year and I say that "home court" is something that can't be overlooked as a major advantage for the Bulldogs here. Expect the home side to control the pace and to grind out a solid ATS cover here! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Wizards v. Bulls -7 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10* BULLS. The 19-19 Washington Wizards are off a terrible 114-111 home loss to Houston and I believe that they're ripe for the picking in this one. Chicago has won eight in a row, but it's failed to cover in three straight. That includes a much tighter than expected 102-98 win here over Olrando. But that three nights ago. With so much time off to rest and prepare for this one, we can absolutely expect the home side to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Wizards have struggled offensively this year, but they've also struggled defensively. This isn't a good combination to win games most nights. When these teams played in Washington on January 1st, Chicago scored the 120-119 victory and it was unable to cover the 2-point spread. I say the Bulls come in focused and run up the score from start to finish this time around though! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Columbia +17.5 v. Princeton | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
10* COLUMBIA (IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). Columbia will be motivated to get into the winners circle today. It's just 3-9 following its 79-69 loss to Sacred Heart ont he 13th of Decemer. It's following two games were postponed, and in my opinion, "rest" is NOT going to lead to "rust" today. In fact, I beleieve the extra time off will benefit the Lions here in the second half of the season. Liam Murphy had 20 points in the loss to Sacred Heart. Columbia averages 67.8 PPG, while Princeton averages 82.1. The Tigers are coming off a 100-59 rout of Kean to move to 10-3. This is the opener of Princeton's Ivy League schedule though and I think it'll have a much tighter fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Tigers win this game, but Columbia gets the comfortable cover! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Panthers v. Stars +103 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
10* DALLAS STARS. Florida is 18-3 at home, but only 4-4-1 on the road. Dallas is 4-9 on the road, but 11-3-1 at home. "Home ice" has meant EVERYTHING to these clubs and I expect that trend to continue in a big way here! With a red hot Pittsburgh team coming to town nexts, the Stars can't afford to look past the Panthers today. Dallas enters off B2B home wins, most recently a convincing 7-4 victory over Minnesota (Dallas is 6-2 in its last eight after scoring 6 or more goals in a win in its previous outing as well.) Florida opened its 4-game homestand with 2 straight losses, but it's since won 4 in a row at home, most recently a 6-2 win over Calgary. But with a game at division rival Carolina on Saturday, this does 100% for sure set up as a "look ahead" spot for the visiting side. It's a great set of situtional and stat based evidence that leads to our one and only 10* top underdog play of the year! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. Tarleton St | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sam Houston State (WESTERN ATHLETIC GAME OF YEAR). The Sam Houston State Bearkats are 7-8, while the Tarleton State Texans are 6-9. While both teams started out slowly, each has looked better of late. The Bearkats have won three in a row, while the Texans have won five of their last seven. Sam Houston State averages 73.5 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Tarleton State averages only 63.2 PPG, while allowing 63.4. The Bearkats on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, while the Texans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -5.5-points range. Sam Houston State is heating up and in a contest that I see being decided in the waning moments, I'll gladly grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Louisiana-Monroe UNDER 150.5 | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Little Rock/UL Monroe under (8*) The Little Rock Trojans are 6-7 and the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are 8-6. UL Monroe is off a 77-69 loss to App State, while the Trjoans are off a 78-66 win over Georgia State. Little Rock though is 0-4 on the road this season. They've faced the 94th most difficult schedule according to KenPom. The Warhawks will be kicking themselves as they had a 6-point half-time lead in their latest loss to App State. I expect this game to be close, but also highly competitive. Considering these situational factors, it's my professional opinion that this total is much too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -9.5 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Hornets (BLOOD-BATH) Off B2B victories, I believe that Detroit will stumble here. Most recently it was a monumental 115-106 win over the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. The Hornets on the other hand will be anxious to return to the winners circle after a listless 124-121 loss in the nation's capital in their last outing. The problem for the Pistons here is that they average only 101.1 PPG, while allowing 110.1. Saddiq Bey was huge for Detroit in its last win with 34 points and eight boards, but I just don't see lightning striking twice here. Charlotte has in fact lost two in a row, so it'll be hungry here. The Hornets average 114.9 PPG, while allowing 116.7. But they catch a break here facing this "on again, off again" Detroit offense. I expect a blowout of epic proportions, so lay those points with confidence! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Gardner-Webb v. Charleston Southern +9.5 | 88-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* Charleston Southern (DESTRUCTION. I think the 6-7 Gardner-Webb Bulldogs will have their hands full today with the 3-9 Charleston Southern Buccaneers. The Bulldogs average 73 PPG, while allowing 65.9. D’Maurian Williams is averaging 14.2 points and two assists. The Bucs average 72.9 PPG, while allowing 80.3. Tahlik Chavez is averaging 10.2 points and two assists, while Kalib Clinton is averaging 9.8 points and 4.9 rebounds. Yes, Gardner-Webb is the better team in this fight, but not by this many points on the road. I look for the hungry home dog to fight tooth and nail here in this "winnable" game. Grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Providence v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Marquette (BIG EAST GAME OF YEAR) Providence is 13-1 overall. Its only loss was against Virginia at a neutral site. Marquette is 8-6 and it comes in starving for a win today after four straight losses. Five of the Golden Eagles' last six games though have come against Top 50 teams. The Friars have so far exceeded expectations and now they hit the most difficult part of their schedule. Overall the Friars average 69.8 points per game while allowing 61.1. The Golden Eagles are ranked 67th in defensive efficiency rating and they are ranked 39th overall as far as pace is concerned. I say regression is imminent for Providence. Marquette comes in focused here and as the hungrier team. Finally, note that the Golden Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a divisional home dog in the +1.5 to +3.5-points range. The outright is possible, but grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Spurs +6 v. Raptors | Top | 104-129 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
10* Spurs (PLATINUM CLUB) I think the Spurs catch the Raptors at a good time here. San Antonio is off a 117-116 loss at Detroit. The Spurs though remain one of the league's highest scoring teams, averaging 111.5 PPG. With a tough upcoming schedule, including a game at Boston tomorrow night, I believe Greg Popovich has his troops prepared to play today. The Raptors are off a relatively simple 120-105 home win over New York and they've won two in a row, but Nick Nurse will likely rest many throughout this game with a contest at Milwaukee tomorrow night. The Raptors only average 106.9 PPG as well. Outright?! Anything is possible, but I do definitely expect this to be very competitive and that's the reason why I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Flames +1.5 v. Panthers | 2-6 | Loss | -195 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
8* PUCK-LINE play on Flames. Calgary is a really good team. It's 17-7-6 overall, including 13-4-2 on the road. Now, Florida is obviously a really good team as well. It's 21-7-2-2 overall, including 17-3-1 at home. This is going to be a very competitive game, one that I see being decided late, or even in extra time or shootout. As such, I'll recommend laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. In this case, I believe it's warranted. Calgary does have a legitimate shot at winning outright, but I feel safer with the extra goal-and-a-half. These teams are evenly matched. The play is Calgary on the puck-line. AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* Steelers (BLOOD-BATH) I don't particularly "like" either of these starting quarterbacks (or teams for that matter!) in this matchup. That said, despite his age and the "ups and downs" he's experienced this year, I trust veteran Ben Roethlisberger at home over Browns' starter Baker Mayfield. The Browns have lost two straight, most recently a tough 24-22 loss to Green Bay. The Steelers are off a 36-10 loss to Kansas City. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be loving their chances as they're 6-3-1 the last ten in this series. Each teams averages and concedes roughly the same amount of points. This is Roethlisberger's final game at Heinz Field though, as he's all but announced that he'll be retiring at the end of the year. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, but look for "home field" to be the difference today. The play is Pittsburgh! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Nets -7 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Nets. The bottom line here gentlemen is that these are two very good teams. Memphis has been playing well of late, but I think it's overmatched here facing this Nets team that's coming off a poor loss to the Clippers in their last outing, allowing a whopping 40 points in the fourth quarter, an effort which promted Steve Nash to asses: "We deserved to lose that game." Both James Harden and Kevin Durant had huge nights, but Brooklyn stumbled down the stretch. Memphis is off B2B home wins, but it's still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS home victory in which it held its opponent to 105 or less points in. I think Harden and Durant lay the hammer down here after that pathetic effort last time out. Lay the points, this one gets UGLY! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +10 | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. The Buckeyes are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS. Ohio State comes to Nebraska off a 73-55 win over Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite. The issue here for Ohio State is that its last three games have been canceled due to COVID-related issues. I say that "rest" leads to "rust." Nebraska on the other hand is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS. Nebraska can't afford to look past anyone. It broke a five-game slide last time out in a relatively simple 88-74 victory over Kennesaw State. Ohio State is 48th in offensive efficiency and it allows just 67.3 PPG. Nebraska on the other hand is ranked 267th offensively and 267th defensively. On paper, the Huskers are overmatched, but this is a great "situational" play here. And it's strong from a trend standpoint as well, as Ohio State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing with two or more weeks of rest between contests. No outright, but VERY tight in the end! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* EAST-COAST TOTAL EXPRESS on OVER Pacers/Cavs. The Pacers will be motivated today. They're just 14-22 this year and they've lost six of their last eight games. The Cavaliers are 20-16, but they'll be hungry here as well after losing four of their last five. It's important to me whenever wagering on an "over" play (in every/any sport), that the two teams involved in the contest are "hungry." If a team is on a 15 game win streak, I question their motivation levels. When a team has lost four of five and six of eight, there's no question about their resolve (at this point of the season anyways, as we haven't even reached the mid-way point.) The Cavs lost to the Hawks on Friday, but they've seen the total soar "over" the number in seven of their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. This one flies "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So once again, we’re going with the Over in a Bengals game. Last week was a little scary when it was announced Baltimore was being forced to turn to Josh Johnson, a little-known third stringer. But the Ravens’ QB situation ended up being a non-factor as the Bengals exploded for 31 points before halftime and Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Incredibly, the Over was a winner going into halftime with the score 31-14. Now, to expect Cincinnati to repeat last week’s offensive effort seems optimistic. But thankfully, we’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on the other sideline. The Chiefs have scored 48, 34 and 36 points the last three weeks and are really humming along with eight straight victories. Their defense has been very impressive during the win streak, holding seven opponents to 17 points or fewer. But outside of the Cowboys and Chargers, the latter of which scored 28 against the Chiefs, none of the offenses faced were as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS off their first two 40+ point efforts this season, however, let it be known those two games also both went Over. There were 65 and 63 total points scored. Six of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone Over. Only one of those last nine games, a 32-13 win over Las Vegas, had fewer than 49 total points scored. The Over is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* AFC GAME OF YEAR Miami Dolphins. Miami has won seven straight, most recently beatting New Orleans 20-3. The Dolphins current win streak has vaulted them into the final playoff spot in the AFC. Overall Miami averages 20.3 PPG, while allowing 21. On paper, that doesn't sound like a recipie for success, but those numbers are skewed after its terrible start to the season. In last weekend's win, QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 19 of 26 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown. Tennessee is off a 20-17 win over San Francisco. The Titans average 23.8 PPG, while allowing 21.7. QB Ryan Tannehill had 209 yards passing and one TD in last weekend's victory. The Fish don't run the ball particularly well, but Tagovailoa is going to be able to exploit this Titans' secondary. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm going to grab the points! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NON-CONF. TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the under Rams/Ravens. The Rams are 11-4. They're off a 30-23 win at Minnesota last weekend. The Rams struggled in the second half though and QB Matt Stafford threw three picks. Sony Michel stepped up with 131 rushing yards and a TD. Matt Gay made three field goals. On the other side of the field, the Ravens are now 8-7 after getting destroyed 41-21 against the Bengals. LaMar Jackson remains questionable for this game for the Ravens, meaning backup Tyler Huntley, who is off the COVID list now, will likely get the start. Stafford is suddenly struggling. The Ravens' QB issue is up in the air right now. This is a game that's going to be decided by whichever team can establish its run game, and in the trenches. This total is much too high! AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -4 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Jazz. The Warriors are 27-7, but they're off a listless 89-86 defeat to Denver. With a night off before a home game againt the Heat, Golden State will have to very careful to not get caught looking ahead today. This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs, but the Jazz enter having won six in a row. Utah is the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 116 PPG, and its guard rotation matches up well against Stephen Curry and company. The Warriors are ranked seventh in scoring, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 90 points or less in. Look for Utah to come out and push the pace from start to finish. The play is the JAZZ. AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Oral Roberts UNDER 151 | Top | 62-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* SUMMIT TOTAL OF YEAR on the under Nebraska Omaha/Oral Roberts. The 2-11 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are on the road to take on the 8-6 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and in my opinion, we're going to witness a much more defensive affair than what this line is suggesting. The Mavericks snapped their 11-game slide with an 84-78 win over the Western Illinois Leathernecks last time out. Omaha averages just 64.9 PPG this year, while allowing 80.3. Oral Roberts is averaging 80.9 PPG, while conceding just 68.1. The Eagles are off an 83-66 win over Denver in their last game. I think the Mavericks though will have a predictable letdown here after their win in their last game. Oral Roberts doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game, just control it. When the smoke clears, expect this total to say under the number. AAA Sports |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State OVER 64 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers come into the final game of 2021 sporting an 18-17 overall record. That’s good for sixth in the Western Conference. In their last game, the Clippers clearly benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition. They were in Boston and the Celtics somehow shot 4 of 42 from three-point range! The game ended up as a 91-82 final, the fifth time in the last six Clippers’ games that the Under hit. Toronto, who is just 14-17 and 11th in the Eastern Conference, has seen its last five games all go Over. So something will have to give here, at least when it comes to the total. The Raptors aren’t about to miss 38 3PA on Friday, but they are still a team that has scored less than 100 points in six of the last 12 games. Los Angeles continues to be undermanned with Paul George out and Kawhi Leonard still has yet to play a single game this season. So we don’t anticipate much scoring from the visitors, who only average 103.5 points/game on the road. Only once in the past seven games have the Clippers scored more than 105 points. The last five meetings between the teams have all gone Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama OVER 58 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 578 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Oilers -147 v. Devils | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -147 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EDMONTON Heading into 2022, the Oilers aren’t exactly in what we’d call a “great” position (they are 4th in the Pacific), but they are a lot better off than the Devils, one of the worst teams in the league. While the Devils did win on Wednesday, that’s rare. They’d previously lost six in a row before defeating Buffalo 4-3. It’s been 23 days since New Jersey won a home game. They aren’t going to win this one; they face Edmonton, who has Connor McDavid. McDavid is having an all-time great season, leading the league in assists and points. Counting last season’s playoffs, McDavid has 159 points in 2021. That’s the most points by a player in a single calendar year since Jaromir Jagr turned in 164 back in 1999. We look for McDavid to be the difference-maker again for Edmonton this afternoon as they look to bounce back from Wednesday’s loss to the Blues. The Oilers are 18-5 their last 23 games vs. teams from the Metropolitan Division and they are 17-7 their last 24 games as a road favorite. As for New Jersey, they’ve lost each of the previous four times they’ve been off a win. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
|||||||
12-30-21 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards OVER 211.5 | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Cleveland is perhaps the biggest surprise team in the league so far. That’s reflected by a remarkable 24-8-2 ATS record, easily the best in the league. But this surprise start by the Cavaliers has taken a hit in recent days, not just due to COVID, but also PG Rubio was lost to a season-ending ACL injury. The injury occurred in Tuesday’s 108-104 loss to New Orleans, a game where the Cavs clearly ran out of gas in the second half. Here, facing Washington, we do see the Cavs at least scoring enough to make sure the game goes Over the total. The Wizards have struggled at the defensive end all month. Going back to December 6th, there’s been only one game where the Wizards did not give up at least 113 points. Their last three games have all gone Over and what was significant about the last one is that it was an undermanned team (Miami), similar to the Cavs here. Despite dealing with COVID-related absences themselves, the Over is 10-3 for the Wizards this month. That trend should continue here as the total set by the oddsmakers is simply too low. It was 116-101 Cavs when these teams played back on December 1st. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-30-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. UCF | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN With four losses on the season, Michigan has tumbled out of the rankings. But we don’t think it’ll be long until the Wolverines find themselves back in the Top 25. The last time they played, it was a 37-point win over Southern Utah. Not every game is going to be that easy, but tonight’s contest at UCF should be another comfortable victory where Michigan covers the spread. Juwan Howard’s team destroyed UCF last year in Ann Arbor, winning 80-58 as 13-point favorites. They don’t even need to win by half that margin tonight. UCF seems to be getting a bit too much credit for a four-game win streak that hasn’t included any tough matchups. A game at Temple two weeks ago was the only real challenge of sorts. The Golden Knights were blown out by their toughest opponent so far, Auburn, who beat them 85-68 back on Dec 1. Michigan is the toughest team UCF will have faced (besides Auburn) thus far. This is the smallest spread for any Michigan game in 2021. They’ve been favored in every game. It’s been an underachieving start to the season for the Wolverines, but tonight they assert themselves in a major way. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as road favorites while UCF has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
|||||||
12-30-21 | South Carolina +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Canucks v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Teams are getting back on the ice and few are chomping at the bit more than Vancouver is. The Canucks were on a six-game win streak when the season was paused nearly two weeks ago. They’d scored four or more goals in four of the six wins. The Canucks’ next opponent will be Anaheim, who has been a surprise this year, spending a good amount of time in first place in the Pacific Division. Expect this first game back to be a pretty high-scoring affair. The Ducks’ last two games before the pause, both at home, were a 4-1 win and 6-5 loss. The Ducks are one of nine teams with more than 100 goals scored entering Wednesday. Vancouver is giving up 3.5 goals/game on the road. The Over is 21-5 in Anaheim’s previous 26 division games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma OVER 60.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | Top | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHX Even at full strength, Oklahoma City would stand little chance of winning this game. But the Thunder aren’t even close to being full strength entering Wednesday. Six players were in protocol for last night’s 117-111 loss in Sacramento. That includes star rookie Josh Giddey, the team leader in both rebounds and assists. Coach Mark Daigneault was also absent last night. All these absences, coupled with the fact they played last night, means OKC is very likely to be blown out tonight in Phoenix. The Suns are hoping to avert what would be their first three-game losing streak of the season. After losing Christmas Day to Golden State, they fell at the buzzer to Memphis on Monday. The Suns’ last win came against the Thunder, 113-101, back on 12/23. We think the final margin will be a lot larger tonight as the favorite is hungry and more motivated this time. They’d just beaten the Lakers the previous time they faced the Thunder. Phoenix is pretty clearly one of the three best teams in the NBA this season. We’d consider Oklahoma City among the three worst. This promises to get ugly in a hurry. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win over Arizona last week, so they’ve got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the SEC opener at Alabama. But the Crimson Tide are ranked in the Top 20 as well. It’s been a bit of a shaky December in Tuscaloosa with the Tide losing two of its last three games, including one-point setback to Davidson in their last game. But this is an Alabama team that has beaten both Gonzaga and Houston this year. You probably aren’t going to find a team that has a better two wins on its resume. The Crimson Tide’s recent issues on the defensive end - they’ve given up 79 or more points in four of the last five games - should only serve as motivation for tonight’s game. Teams are still only shooting 43.1% against the Tide for the year and 39.3% here in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have been great at defending the three-point line as well. At home, they allow just 26.3% of attempts to be made from behind the arc. Tennessee has played just one true road game so far and that was at Colorado. The Volunteers have not shot the ball well outside of Knoxville as they were held to 53 and 52 points in neutral court losses to Villanova and Texas Tech. This is a good spot to jump on Bama. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEMSON Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Thunder v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO Laying points with Sacramento might sound a bit dicey, but we are expecting an inspired effort tonight from the Kings after interim head coach Alvin Gentry called Sunday “the most disappointed I’ve been in 34 years in the NBA.” The Kings were outscored 78-52 in the second half by Memphis as they lost a third straight game by 15 or more points. But tonight they are welcoming in Oklahoma City. Despite four wins in its last five games and being 6-0 ATS in their last six, the Thunder remain one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are last in the NBA in scoring and get outscored by 11.8 points/game on the road. So expect the rare, comfortable win for Sacramento on Tuesday. The Kings are also looking to avenge a two-point road loss from last month. That game in OKC saw them blow a 14-point halftime lead. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on YALE It’s been two weeks since Yale took the court. The favorites to win the Ivy League this year have suffered through a disappointing start to 2021-22, going just 6-7 in their first 13 games. They lost at home to Monmouth two weeks ago and you can bet the Bulldogs have been seething ever since. Tonight, they find themselves on the opposite side of the country, playing St. Mary’s, who is 11-3 SU and gearing up for conference play. The Gaels will host 12-1 San Francisco on New Year’s Day and there’s a good chance that the players & coaches might be more focused on that game than they are this one. So laying double digits in this spot seems like a dicey proposition. We know that St. Mary’s is 8-0 at home and only gives up 55.9 points/game. But this is too many points vs. a good Yale team that will be motivated, trying to avoid a third straight loss. Play on YALE AAA |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 503 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Mavs v. Blazers | Top | 132-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland has just three wins in its last 14 games. But at least they’re at home where they started the year out on a 10-1 tear. With Thursday’s game vs. Brooklyn postponed, the Blazers have had five days off to prepare for Dallas tonight. The Mavericks turned in a game effort Christmas night vs. Utah, only losing by four as 13.5 point underdogs. But they continue to be very undermanned with Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr and three others in protocol. Portland is also without five players, but at least they’ve got Damian Lillard, who has averaged 38 points on 54.8% shooting (48.4% on threes) over his past three games. Like Portland, Dallas has been slipping of late, dropping four of its last five games. So we’ve got two struggling teams that will be short-handed Monday night. We side with the home team due to Lillard and the fact they are better rested. The Mavs’ only road win in the last 17 days came at Oklahoma City. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI New Orleans was kind to us last Sunday night, so we almost feel a bit bad playing against them here. But the situation has gotten bleak for the 7-7 Saints, who placed quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the COVID-19 list Thursday. That means fourth string rookie Ian Book will be making his first NFL start Monday night. Keep in mind that the Saints’ offense only scored nine points last week. The defense, which shut out Tom Brady, is also now dealing with multiple COVID-related absences. Now Miami, another 7-7 team, was kind to us last week as well, in that they didn’t cover the spread. But the Dolphins still picked up their sixth straight win, beating the Jets 24-17. It shouldn’t be much trouble for a red-hot team to beat a COVID-depleted opponent, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS during their six-game win streak. Shockingly, the Saints defense gives up 402 yards/game at home, most in the NFL. Once a power-house in primetime, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight night games, including 1-3 this year. Miami is the call here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Brown v. Syracuse -9.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Syracuse will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when it welcomes Brown to the Carrier Dome on Monday. Those two losses for the Orange both came to old Big East rivals. First, it was Villanova and then it was Georgetown. It’s also been 16 days since Jim Boeheim’s team took the court. It’s been a 17-day layoff for Brown, who is coming off a five-point loss to Vermont. Before that, the Bears had won and covered four in a row, though none of the teams they beat were as good as Syracuse. The key here is who will get off to a better start? Rust could certainly be a factor for both teams. We believe the home side is better equipped to handle the situation. Something we should mention from the loss to Georgetown is that the Orange led by 10 at halftime. Boeheim has five players on the roster, one of which is his son, averaging at least 12 points/game. Brown has only one player that averages that many. The Orange have been scoring a lot at home thus far and are just too potent offensively for their Ivy League opposition. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEVADA No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them. Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA AAA |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Nuggets -4 v. Clippers | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Add Paul George’s name to the list of Clippers who won’t be in action Sunday. Los Angeles was already without Marcus Morris Sr, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luke Kennard and Jason Preston and of course Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t played at all this season. Looking at that list of players, only Kennard has a shot to play tonight. The Clippers did somehow pick up a win on Wednesday, but tonight’s effort should more closely resemble the team that had lost three in a row before that. Meanwhile, Denver should be really motivated after losing to Charlotte on Thursday, a game in which it had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. That was the Nuggets second straight loss and third in the last four games. Nikola Jokic is still playing well though, averaging 26.2 points and 13.1 rebounds his L10 games. He went for 29-21 on Thursday. The Nuggets are a lot closer to “full strength” than the Clippers are right now and that makes them very attractive here in a game they’ll desperately want to win. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON These teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. Dallas won in Week 14, 27-20, just barely covering as 6.5 point favorites thanks to Washington missing an extra point. A second win over the Football Team would clinch the NFC East for the Cowboys, who are already in the playoffs by virtue of a 21-6 win last week over the Giants. Entering this week, Dallas is tied with Green Bay for the best ATS record in the league. Washington, now 6-8, is fighting for its playoff life after a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The short week does the Football Team no favors, but they are at home and set to get QB Heinicke back from the COVID list. We also think this number is too big. Dallas scored just two offensive touchdowns last week. Washington is 4-1-1 its past six games as an underdog. The Cowboys have not won back to back games by double digits at any point this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct 24 at Green Bay. The Cowboys have been very lucky to force four turnovers in each of the last games. Grab the points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KC Pittsburgh has no business having a winning record as all seven wins this year have been one-score games and they’re -44 in point differential. This is a team that's being outgained by 50 yards/game. In four of their last five games, the Steelers have been down by double digits. They were able to overcome a 13-3 deficit last week to beat Tennessee, but are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins. Their only other SU win since early November (other than last week) was by one point over Baltimore, who went for two and the win instead of forcing overtime. The Steelers lost by 31 to Cincinnati, trailed the Chargers by 17 in the second half and the Vikings 29-0. Kansas City is not having any such issues at the moment. They have seven in a row and covered the spread five straight times. Before last week’s overtime win over the Chargers, the KC defense had allowed 17 points or less six weeks in a row. The Steelers’ offense isn’t good at all. For the Chiefs’ offense, Tyreke Hill has been activated from the COVID list. Take the far better team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Ravens v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 143 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER UPDATE: When we made this play, we obviously did not expect Johnson to be the QB for the Ravens. But this is an opportunity of a lifetime for the veteran. He's gotten games in this year and has a great offense around him. Call us crazy but you should still expect Baltimore to put points on the board... The Ravens may have failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point try last week. But they definitely didn’t have any issue putting up points. This despite backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback. Huntley had 215 yards passing and 73 yards rushing in the 31-30 loss against the Packers. So we’re pretty confident that Baltimore is going to score plenty of points on Sunday, no matter if it’s Huntley or Lamar Jackson at QB. Jackson had never missed a game before last week. This is a huge game in the AFC North vs. Cincinnati. The Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 earlier in the year. The teams enter this rematch tied at 8-6. Cincy won last week in Denver, 15-10. Had they lost, both they and the Ravens would be on a three-game skid. The Bengals average 26.4 points/game, so they should not have problems scoring. We know that they did have problems against the Broncos. However, last week marked only the third game in 2021 that Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed 41 points twice in the last four home games. Those last four home games have all seen at least 49 total points scored. Bengals’ home games average 51.9 points/game. Huntley proved himself to us last week, so we’re satisfied no matter if it’s him or Jackson starting this week. The Over is 5-1 the previous six times Baltimore has been off a straight-up loss. The Over has cashed the last four times Cincinnati has been off a win. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals OVER 49 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis is going to be playing without three of its five starting offensive linemen on Christmas. But considering that they scored 27 points last week with Carson Wentz completing only five passes for 57 yards, we believe the Colts can still score a reasonable number of points in this game. Arizona has given up 30 points in each of its last two games. The Colts come in putting an average of 28 points/game on the board. Though Wentz struggled in the last game (still beat the Patriots) and the offensive line is banged up, handing the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor seems easy enough. Taylor leads the league - by a wide margin - with over 1500 yards rushing. He had 170 last week. Stopping the Cardinals’ offense may prove to be difficult for the Colts, however. Despite playing without WR Hopkins, Kyler Murray still threw for 257 yards last week in what ended up being an embarrassing loss to Detroit. The Indianapolis’ defense is not particularly great against the run or pass, so the Cardinals offense should have success. Each of the last five times the Colts have been underdogs, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Warriors +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE This is our best matchup on Christmas Day. The two best teams in the West face off as the 26-5 Suns host the 26-6 Warriors. The last time they met, we took the Warriors laying 6.5 at home. They covered for us in a 118-96 win and in the process ended Phoenix’s 18-game win streak. That is one of only two losses the Suns have suffered in the last 27 games. Despite them potentially not being at full strength for Saturday, we again will side with Golden State, this time as our 10* Game of the Month. As long as Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both healthy, and they are, the Warriors should not be getting this many points from anybody. They have a better statistical profile than the Suns and the players that are potentially going to be absent (Poole, Lee, Wiggins) collectively aren’t worth more than 1-2 points to the spread. Grab the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY No matter if it’s Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum or Bernie Kosar, the Browns don’t stand a chance at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in 2021 home games. The six wins have come by an average of 13.7 points. Last week’s win in Baltimore got too close for comfort at the end, but Green Bay was up big in that one and we don’t see them making the same mistake of letting Cleveland hang around here. The Browns are getting their COVID players back this week, but that comes at a bit of a price. With so many players out last week, the game was moved to Monday. That now puts them on a very short week. In the last six games, the Browns are averaging 13.6 points, which would rank 30th in the league ahead of just the Giants and Jaguars. Also, the team’s best defensive player, Myles Garrett, may not play in this game. Green Bay has put up 31 or more points each of the last four weeks. This is no contest. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 209 | Top | 87-101 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two teams, each playing without a significant chunk of their roster, aren’t about to go Over the total in an early Christmas start. The main attraction for this game was supposed to be Trae Young’s return to the Garden as he was “public enemy #1” of Knicks’ fans during the playoffs last season. But Young isn’t playing on Christmas. There will be several other Hawks’ players unable to suit up - due to the league’s health and safety protocols - as well. But the key is Young. Over the last two years, in the 11 games that Young has missed, Atlanta only averages 103.5 points/game. His 27,3 point and 9.3 assist per game averages are irreplaceable. For New York, some players are set to return from protocol, but when they played the Hawks last month it ended up being a 99-90 game. Going back to the playoff series last May, the most total points scored in any of the last six Hawks-Knicks games is 212. Of the 11 players that suited up against NY last month for Atlanta, only two are certain to play on Christmas Day. The Knicks got 44 points from Kemba Walker the other night, a number he will almost certainly not match here. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX Oklahoma City has won three in a row. That’s not a sentence we anticipated writing. The Thunder defeated the Nuggets on Wednesday night, 108-94, a game where we were on the wrong side. We’ll again be on the opposite side of the Thunder here tonight, only this time, look for us to be right. Phoenix is clearly the “real deal” having won 24 of its last 26 games including a four-game win streak heading into tonight. The Suns have covered the spread in all four wins as well, winning by an average of more than 18 points per game. Each of the last three wins have been by 18 or more. The Thunder are still one of the league’s bottom teams and have been outscored by more than 20 points/game when playing with zero rest. Play on PHOENIX AAA |