Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We are looking to avenge one of the two losses we’ve suffered over the last five days (12-2 overall run). We had the Over in the first game between the Mets and Phillies, which saw the latter win 4-2 to take over first place in the NL East. In that game, the Mets were 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position. They were no better in that situation last night, going 0 for 5, and they didn’t even score a run until the ninth inning. It was a 5-3 loss this time. The Phillies have won seven in a row. They scored four of their runs in one big inning last night. We’d seen plenty of offense from them before this series got underway as they had scored 43 runs in five games. We think it is likely that they will have their highest scoring effort of this series today. They face Taijuan Walker, whose last six starts have all gone Over for the Mets. The last four have seen Walker pitch poorly. He’s given up 21 runs in his last 15 innings. Not good. For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The teams are somewhat due to play a high-scoring game. Mets’ road games are definitely higher scoring than their home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 102 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER One could make the argument that - with five one-run losses over the last week - the Mariners have gotten a taste of their own medicine. Prior to those five losses, the team had been 23-8 in one-run games, which is some pretty darn good fortune. But the Mariners have had no luck this weekend in Yankees Stadium where they’ve lost the first three games of the series. Yesterday’s 5-4 loss was probably the most painful as they blew a 4-1 lead. The Yankees scored the game-winning run on a double play. Earlier in the inning, they capitalized on a three-base error. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. The odds have curiously swung towards Seattle for Sunday, so we will stay away from rendering a decision on who is going to win. But look for it to be a clean sweep with the Under in this series. The first three games have seen only eight, five and nine runs scored. Seattle has the lowest batting average in the majors while New York has scored the fourth fewest number of runs in the American League. Only the three last place teams have scored less. Kikuchi is a really solid starter for the Mariners. Of the two runs he allowed in his last start, only one was “earned.” Gil’s first career start for the Yankees couldn’t have gone much better. He didn’t allow a run in six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER We also like this Tigers-Indians matchup to stay Under the total. We already went through Cleveland’s head to head domination of Detroit In the analysis for the pick on the side. Also know that the Tigers have scored no more than three runs six of the last 10 times they’ve faced Cleveland. The Tigers’ last eight games have all stayed Under with no more than nine combined runs scored in any of them. As we stated in the other writeup, Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is likely to continue a strong stretch of starts today. But the Indians probably won’t match their scoring from yesterday. They only average 3.8 runs/contest when facing a left-handed starter. Detroit’s Tyler Alexander is a lefty. We think he can limit the damage somewhat, though the Indians will still win this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians -148 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland beat Detroit 6-1 last night. They’ve really had the Tigers number whether you are talking about this year (9-5 head to head record), the last two years (16-8) or the last three years (34-9). The Tigers have really struggled to win at Progressive Field where they are 4-16 since the start of the 2019 season. They didn’t even score until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game as Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill turned in the best start of his career. Cleveland will look to make it two in a row behind rookie Eli Morgan, who had nine strikeouts in six innings his last start. Morgan has given up no more than three runs in each of his last four starts. What makes that all the more impressive is he faced Houston twice, Toronto and Oakland. Those are all good teams. Houston averages almost 6.0 runs/game. Toronto averages the most runs/game at home in the entire league. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-07-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Reds pummelled the Pirates last night, winning 10-0. It was 7-0 after the first innings. Cincinnati is 7-1 vs. Pittsburgh this year, 5-0 at home. The first two games of this series have seen 11 and 10 runs scored. We should be in for another high-scoring affair Saturday night. Neither starter is anything to write home about. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has been getting shelled recently. He’s allowed four runs in back to back starts. Neither start went more than five innings. Cincinnati’s Gutierrez has a 7.17 ERA at home. Truthfully, none of the Reds starters have done very well at Great American Ballpark this year. Opponents have averaged 5.5 runs/contest here. So the Pirates, weak as they may be offensively, should at least put SOME runs on the board Saturday. Of course, the Reds will too. They average the same number of runs/contest that they allow at home. In eight games vs. the Pirates this year, the Reds have scored 68 times. That includes 16 runs in the first two innings of the last two games. In their last 10 games, the Reds have scored six or more runs eight different times. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU -1.5 The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE) Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is a battle for first place in the NL East. The Mets have held the top spot for a long time now, but their lead is now down to a half game. The Phillies swept their last series, winning all four games in Washington. The Mets weren’t nearly as successful in Miami where they lost two of three. Philadelphia did have to come from behind yesterday, scoring four runs in the top of the ninth, but they’ll take a win anyway they can get it. They’ve won five in a row now and all five of those games also went Over. The Mets had a three-game Over run stopped yesterday in a 4-2 loss where they left 15 runners on base. A big key here is how Mets’ road games tend to see a lot more scoring than their home games. It’s a difference of 2.8 more runs/game on the road. The Phillies have scored 43 runs during their five-game win streak. So we’ve got no worries with them. A pitching matchup of Stroman vs. Gibson might give you some pause about betting the Over here, but Stroman did allow four runs in his most recent start. Gibson is making his second start since coming over from Texas and the National League remains an unfamiliar scene. The two previous times Gibson has faced the Mets have resulted in a 6.75 ERA. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Philadelphia. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT The Steelers and Cowboys open the preseason Thursday night in Canton. Both teams are just looking to stay healthy and evaluate some backups in this one. You won’t be seeing either Dak Prescott or Ben Roethlisberger taking any snaps tonight. Much of the offensive firepower will spend the game on the sidelines. But we like the Steelers QB rotation of Rudolph, Dobbs and Haskins a lot better than what the Cowboys have (Rush, Gilbert, DiNucci). Also watch out for rookie running back Najee Harris. He’s had a good camp and does figure to get a decent amount of time on the field tonight. Starters will also be limited on the defensive side of the ball, but we know Pittsburgh is better there. Dallas always seems to be overrated every year, so we won’t hesitate to fade them in the first game of the season. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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08-05-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY -1.5 There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-05-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Texas won the first game of this series, they found themselves on a three-game win streak. That was their longest win streak in over a month and just the fifth win streak of that length all season. So a return to poor form was all but assured and wouldn’t you know - the Rangers have lost two straight to the Angels. In doing so, they’ve scored only four runs. They lost 11-3 on Tuesday while last night was a lot closer at 2-1. This team just can’t hit. They came into yesterday with a .214 batting average over the last week. In addition to being the lowest scoring team in the American League, the Rangers are either last or next to last in batting average, OPS, OBP and slugging. So don’t worry about them scoring many runs in today’s matinee. Angels starter Dylan Bundy has pitched well vs. Texas in his career. He’s made 10 appearances against them and gone 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA. But the road team hasn’t done much scoring as of late either. In six of the last seven games, Los Angeles has not scored more than three runs. Five times they’ve scored two or less. Spencer Howard is making his Rangers debut today after being traded over from the Phillies. Howard was the Phillies’ #1 pitching prospect at the start of this season. Given how little the Angels have been scoring as of late (save for Tuesday), Howard should do fine here. The Angels are 10-1 Under in their past 11 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Astros and Dodgers are two of baseball's best. They are also the two highest scoring teams. Houston averages 5.5 runs/game. Los Angeles averages 5.2. Now last night’s game was low-scoring, a 3-0 win by the Astros. But you should expect something different tonight. Though they are being forced to send the pitcher up to bat here, the Astros did just fine under the same circumstances in their last series. Facing San Francisco, who has permitted the least number of runs in MLB in 2021, they still scored an average of six runs/game. They average 5.8/game on the road, which is #1 in baseball. The Dodgers scored 13 times in a win Sunday over Arizona. So you should expect them to bounce back from just their fourth shutout loss of the season. Max Scherzer is making his Dodgers’ debut tonight. It will be interesting to see if there is an adjustment period. He arrives in LA with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. Even worse is Astros’ starter Jake Odorizzi as he has a 6.75 ERA his last three starts. Odorizzi’s last three starts have all gone Over. The Over is 35-17-5 when the Dodgers are coming off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Twins and Reds will wrap up this very brief two-game series in an early afternoon affair. Last night saw the visitors prevail 7-5 as Jorge Polanco delivered a three-run homer in the top of the ninth. Minnesota, despite not playing with a DH, probably should have scored even more runs. But they were only 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in the game. Still, the Over hit and high-scoring games at Great American Ballpark are nothing new. On average, Reds’ home games see 11.0 runs scored. They score 5.4 runs/contest themselves while giving up 5.6. No other park sees a higher average of runs/game scored, not even Coors Field. We look for the deluge of runs to continue on Getaway Day. Luis Castillo has engineered a remarkable turnaround for the Reds with a 1.95 ERA since June 1st. He had started the 2021 season with a 1-10 team start record. But two career starts vs. the Reds have brought Castillo a 16.20 ERA. Don’t be surprised if the Twins get to him. Starting here for the Twins will be Charlie Barnes. It’s just his second career big league start. The Over is 63-39-5 in all Twins’ games this year. That’s the highest Over percentage in baseball. Cincinnati isn’t far behind, in fifth place. The Over is 33-17-3 in Twins’ road games and 29-10-1 if they are the underdog, which is the case this afternoon. Six of their last seven games have gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-03-21 | Braves -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The good news for Atlanta is that they have not lost back to back games since the All Star Break. The bad news is that they also have not won back to back games since the All Star Break. For the sake of Tuesday, they hope the pattern of alternating wins and losses (now over the course of 17 games) continues as they are off a loss heading into St. Louis. The Cardinals may be at home, but the Braves are favored in this one as they try to move within a game of .500. The Braves have the NL East’s best run differential, which is something worth mentioning. They are only 3.5 games out of first place. St. Louis is very much in “also-ran” status in the Central, trailing Milwaukee by 10 games. The Cardinals may have a better than .500 record (56-52), but they have a -37 run differential. Compare that to Atlanta, whose run differential is +49. The Braves are the better team, which is why they are favored, and Max Fried is looking to stay unbeaten for his career against St. Louis. Earlier in 2021, Fried allowed just one run, two hits and two walks in a 9-1 win over the Cardinals. He has a 0.65 ERA in three games against them. Jon Lester will be making his St. Louis debut on Tuesday. The problem is he’s lasted six innings just three times this season and he lost to Baltimore in his final start for the Nationals. The Braves are one of five NL teams to have scored 500 runs this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5 Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY -1.5 Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-02-21 | Giants -180 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco is 9-1 against Arizona this season. That’s what you’d expect from the team who has the best record in baseball playing the team with the worst record in baseball. But also, the last two seasons have seen the Giants go 17-3 vs. the Diamondbacks. So they’ve got their number. The lone loss this year occurred on July 1st. After that, the Giants won the final three games of that series by outscoring the D’backs 22-11. The Giants’ last two series were against Houston and the Dodgers, two of the top teams in baseball. They won two of three games in each series. To say this is a step down in class would be putting it mildly. Arizona is 40 games below .500. They are -31.9 units. The Giants are +23.4 units by the way, making them the best team to bet on. So it doesn’t matter if it’s the actual field or at the betting window -- these teams are miles apart. For Arizona to even have a chance against the Giants, they would need a favorable starting pitching matchup. They do not today. Anthony DeSclafani has a 14-7 team start record for the Giants, thanks to a 3.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has pitched better on the road this year. Arizona’s Taylor Widener has allowed five runs in consecutive starts, which were against Pittsburgh and Texas, two last place teams. This is the definition of a “mismatch.” Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-02-21 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams split a four-game series last week. The two games that the Phillies won also went Over. The two games the Nationals won both stayed Under. Washington followed that up by winning two of three from the Cubs with 7, 9 and 11 total runs being scored in those games. The Phillies followed up by losing two of three to the Pirates. They did score 15 runs in a win Sunday. But that was after scoring just two runs in the two previous games. The two starters for Monday have a combined one start between them in 2021. It comes from Washington’s Josiah Gray and that one start wasn’t even with his current team. Gray was just acquired from the Dodgers in a trade. He allowed two runs in four innings last week in what was his only start for his former team. He also made one relief appearance five days earlier. Gray is now the top pitching prospect in the Nationals organization. They must like him because he came over in the Scherzer/Turner deal. We believe he will pitch well tonight. Ranger Suarez is making his first start since 2018 for the Phillies. He’d recently been serving as the team’s closer. He’s made 27 appearances this year and has given up just nine runs (four of them unearned) and 21 hits. The Under is on a 21-10-3 run when these NL East teams meet. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER To say runs have been “scarce” in this series would be an understatement. The A’s and Angels have played three games this weekend. A grand total of seven runs have been scored between them. The first six all came from Oakland as they won 4-0 on Thursday and 2-0 on Friday. Then the scoring decreased to the lowest point possible with the Angels winning 1-0 yesterday. Will scoring go up a bit today? Most likely. But we still don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this game. There is an “unknown factor” on the mound Sunday as Reid Detmers makes his major league debut for Los Angeles and Daulton Jefferies makes only his second career big league start for Oakland. Jefferies prior start at this level came last year. He got the call up from Triple A Las Vegas due to an injury to James Kaprielian. The Angels scored only two runs on A’s pitching in five July meetings. Oakland scored 16 runs in those five games, which sounds like a lot compared to what LA did, but it’s really not that much. Detmers looked good in both Double-A and Triple-A this year and has improved his fastball velocity. He had 106 strikeouts in 60 innings. The Under is 6-0 in the A’s last six Sunday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS This rematch of the 1987 World Series has seen each team post a win. The Cardinals struck first, winning Friday’s game by a score of 5-1. But then it was the Twins’ turn on Saturday as they prevailed by an even greater margin (8-1). We like the idea of taking a home team off an embarrassing loss as long as they’re not drastically outclassed in terms of talent. That’s definitely not the case here as Minnesota has been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2021. The Twins are down -29.6 units (2nd worst) and in last place in the American League Central. St. Louis won’t be going to the playoffs either but at least they can claim a .500 record. They’d also won 8 of their previous 12 games going into yesterday. There are only four teams Adam Wainwright has never beaten in his 15+ year big league career. Minnesota is one of the four. Wainwright can check them off the list today and he comes in having pitched pretty well of late. His last two starts both went seven innings and he allowed only three runs total. He also has a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. The Twins are not a good road team (19-31) and were big sellers at the trade deadline. Michael Pineda’s last start was the first time he lasted six innings since May. The Twins did score eight times Saturday, but remember they are without a designated hitter, making their lineup weaker than usual. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Mets’ home games have been REALLY low scoring in 2021. You’re looking at just 6.2 total runs being scored per contest. Last night was a little higher scoring than usual though as the Reds spoiled the season debut of Carlos Carrasco. Much of the way it looked like your typical game at Citi Field as the Reds took a 3-1 lead into the ninth. But then the scoring doubled in the final inning and the game ended up 6-2. Joey Votto has homered in seven straight games for Cincinnati. The Reds are averaging 6.3 runs over their last seven games and have scored at least five times in eight straight games. Rich Hill, recently acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay, will be making his second start as a Met on Saturday. The first went okay as he permitted three runs in five innings. The Mets won the game 5-4, which would be enough runs to cash an Over today. The Reds, whose pitching is normally not good, will send out Wade Miley. Don’t be fooled by his ERA as he’s actually given up 21 hits in his last three starts as well as 10 walks. None of the Reds last six games have stayed Under (two have pushed). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-31-21 | Phillies -155 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies ought to be ashamed of themselves for losing 7-0 to the Pirates last night. Even in Pittsburgh, the Bucs are just 22-29 this year and they came into this series having lost 8 of their last 10 overall. In their last series, which was here in PNC Park and against Milwaukee, they got shut out twice and were outscored 28-3 over three games. The Phillies may not have the pitching the Brewers do, but the Pirates are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The home team scoring seven times wasn’t the only thing surprising about last night, however. Their pitching also held the Phillies to just one hit. Look for the script to be reversed on Saturday. Aaron Nola, off maybe his best start of 2021, should handle the Pirates’ feeble lineup. Nola was just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday as he kept Atlanta to one run. He has 45 strikeouts in his past five starts, which have spanned 30 innings. That’s a good rate. Then you’ve got JT Brubaker going for the Pirates and there aren't many nice things we can say about him. Brubaker has lost six straight decisions and has an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts. He has an 8.52 ERA his last three starts and he’s allowed 10 home runs in the last five. The last five times that the Phillies have scored two runs or less, they have come back to win the next game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-31-21 | A's -132 v. Angels | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The A’s look to make it three straight wins over the Angels and four straight wins overall this afternoon in Anaheim. The first two wins of this series have both been shutouts, 4-0 and then 2-0. With the Wild Card race tightening, winning these games is very important for Oakland. They have a 2.5 game lead over Seattle, who is playing last place Texas this weekend. Following yesterday’s win, Oakland is now 7-1 off a shutout victory in 2021. Injuries have really decimated the Angels lineup to the point that it’s now pretty easy to pitch around Shohei Ohtani. Cole Irvin will be looking to lead a third straight shutout win today. He didn’t allow any runs the last time he faced Los Angeles in a seven inning effort. That was earlier this month. The A’s bullpen did give up a run in that game, but the team still won 4-1. Since then, A’s pitching has a 27-inning scoreless streak against the Angels. Head to head this season, Oakland is 11-3 vs. their division rival. Jaime Barria is making just his second start of the year for the Angels today. Given how ineffective his teammates have been against Oakland in ‘21, Barria will need to be near perfect to get the win here. We don’t think he’s capable of getting the job done. Oakland is 14-4 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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07-30-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Heading into yesterday, both these teams were coming off series where every game went Over. But those series were against American League opponents. In the case of Colorado, they were on the road, so they got to play with a DH. Yesterday’s 3-0 win by the Padres marked a return to form for both teams. When the Rockies are on the road and NOT getting to use a DH, the results at the plate are typically pretty dire. They are putting up just 3.1 runs/contest away from Coors Field this year. As a team, they have hit .210 in those games. That is clearly the predominant reason for their 11-39 road record. As for San Diego, shutting out the Rockies yesterday was not all that special. Visitors are putting up only 3.7 runs/contest at Petco Park this season. In their last four games here, the Rockies have scored a total of eight times. They’ve actually won two of those four games though as the Padres have also scored a total of eight times. The Under is 4-0 in those four games obviously and you should expect it to come in again tonight. Jon Gray has had a nice six-start stretch for Colorado. One of those six starts saw him limit San Diego to one run and three hits in six innings. Gray has a 2.99 career ERA vs. SD and has limited them to a .227 average this season. Ryan Weathers opposed Gray back on July 11th and that ended up being a 3-1 final. Weathers again opposes Gray today. He’s since thrown four shutout innings vs. Miami on 7/24. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After scoring twice in the first inning last night, Detroit never looked back and ended up beating Baltimore 6-2. The Tigers have now won three in a row and are within five games of .500. The Orioles are 31 games below the Mendoza line and simply playing out the string. They had won four of five coming into this series, but all of those games were against National League teams and at home. They’ve given up a lot of runs in 2021, more than any other AL team in fact, but Detroit isn’t likely to score more than they did here last night. Matt Harvey, believe it or not, has been pretty good for B-more of late. He’s allowed no runs in his last two starts, both of which were six-inning efforts. He’s only allowed four hits and one walk! Skubal will pitch tonight for the Tigers and he’s got a 0.94 WHIP his last three starts. The Orioles got just 29 at-bats last night (which is two more than the minimum) and had only four hits. The last time Skubal pitched at home, he allowed one run in six innings. His last three starts have all gone Under and that doesn’t even count a start here at home on 6/27 when he held Houston (MLB’s highest scoring team) to one hit in seven innings. The Under is on a 7-3-1 run for the Tigers if they scored 5 or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-29-21 | Brewers -184 v. Pirates | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We just don’t see any path to victory for the Pirates. Yesterday was the eighth time in the previous nine meetings that they lost to Milwaukee. The last five losses have all been in Pittsburgh this month and what’s crazy is that all five losses have been by four runs or more. It was a 7-3 final yesterday with two of the Pirates runs coming in relatively meaningless fashion. Those two were scored in the bottom of the ninth with the game already out of hand. The Brewers’ scored the game’s first seven runs. This was after a 9-0 win on Tuesday. The Brewers are starting to run away with the NL Central as they’ve built a seven game lead. They’ve allowed the second fewest number of runs in baseball during 2021. Pittsburgh has scored the fewest, so you can see why this has been even more lopsided than most first place vs. last place matchups. We look for Freddy Peralta to pitch the visitors to another victory tonight as he has put together a strong season with a 2.34 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Peralta has a 12-6 TSR and what’s crazy is that there has been only one start where he allowed more than three runs. Chad Kuhl has been Pittsburgh’s most profitable starter, but he still has a 4.36 ERA. Milwaukee’s 31 road wins are tied for the most in MLB and they have scored at least six times in four of the last five games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-29-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Both games in this series have gone Under as have the Yankees' last six games overall and the Rays’ last four. In the six game stretch for New York, they have never scored more than four runs. As we’ve previously talked about (we had the Under in Tuesday’s game), NY is one of the lowest scoring clubs in the American League. Only Texas has scored less runs over the duration of the season. Tampa Bay has scored a combined six runs in the last three games. They had only three hits Wednesday in a game that was 1-1 heading into the 10th. (Yankees won 3-1). Gerrit Cole will be starting Thursday’s game. We can probably count on him keeping the Rays in check based on a 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Cole has 31 strikeouts and has allowed just four runs in 20 innings. One of those was a complete game shutout at Houston. Back on May 12th, Cole didn’t allow any runs when he faced the Rays, limiting them to just three hits in eight innings. Yesterday the Rays had just four at-bats with runners in scoring position. It’s probably up to Luis Patino to keep Tampa Bay in this game. Fortunately for him and the Rays, the game is at home. In three previous home starts, Patino’s ERA is 1.04. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels -200 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LOS ANGELES The Angels got embarrassed Tuesday night as they lost to the Rockies 12-3. Why is that so embarrassing? Well, besides the score itself, you have to realize that Colorado is a MLB-worst 11-37 on the road where it averages fewer than three runs per contest. Last night saw the Rockies jump out to a 10-0 lead by the fifth inning. But starting pitching should be less of a concern for the home team tonight. Andrew Heaney is off a really strong effort where he allowed just two runs at Minnesota last week. The Angels won that game 3-2. The Rockies were lucky to have Austin Gomber on the mound Tuesday, but tonight they’re forced to rely on Chi-Chi Gonzalez. He has an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three trips to the mound. Given the season-long struggle to score runs on the road, you just can’t expect anything close to a repeat of last night’s performance from the Rockies. Only one time in 2021 have they won back to back road games. That was right before the All Star Break. Ohtani homered last night for the Angels, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. They are a perfect 6-0 after a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. They are 8-1 as home favorites of -175 or higher. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-28-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Over their last six games, Atlanta has scored two or less runs four times. They won just one of those games. There have also been two games where they scored 12 and 15 times. The 12 came last night, quadrupling the number of runs scored from the previous three games combined. They played a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Those games ended up being 2-0 in favor of Atlanta and 1-0 in favor of the Mets. While doubleheader games are only now seven innings, we also know that Mets’ home games on average are very low scoring. This was discussed in our 10* Total of the Week release on Monday. They are putting up only 3.5 runs/contest, but allow only 2.7. This Tylor Megill has been a bit of a revelation in the starting rotation. In six starts he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has a 12-inning scoreless streak going and has allowed only two runs total in his last four starts. So the Braves offensive numbers should nosedive tonight. Remember they lost Ronald Acuna Jr for the year. The Mets don’t score much either and Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8 * on UNDER The Padres were able to beat the Athletics 7-4 on Tuesday. The series wraps up this afternoon and we think this matinee will be a lower-scoring game compared to the opener. The home team used a 5-run fifth inning to get the ‘W’ yesterday. Getting another big inning like that will be much more difficult here as they face Sean Manaea. The Under is 7-1-1 in Manaea road starts and he’s put together a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in those nine games. His season-long numbers got even better after his last start where he struck out 13 and gave up just one run on three hits. Oakland won that game 4-1 over Seattle. That’s also the last time they won a game. Four straight losses have seen them score just 14 runs. They have scored no more than four times in eight of their last nine games. The struggles at the plate are likely to continue as they come up to bat today without the DH. San Diego is allowing just 3.6 runs/contest at home. They’ve got Blake Snell going and he’s 6-1 at Petco Park with a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Six of those seven starts have stayed Under. Snell also allowed just one run and three hits in his last start. If there is a saving grace for Oakland here it’s that they only give up 3.8 runs/contest on the road. The Under is 13-3 if they allowed five or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Colorado simply can’t score (or win) on the road. It’s really gotten embarrassing. Yesterday’s 6-2 loss in Anaheim was an all-too familiar result for Rockies fans, whose team is 10-37 away from home where it averages 2.9 runs/game. The struggles outside Coors Field are nothing new for the franchise, but this season seems to be a new low. We have no reason to expect they’ll score many runs tonight either. They have not scored more than three times in six of the last seven road games. They have crossed the plate only four times in the last three. But maybe Austin Gomber can keep them in the game Tuesday. Gomber has pitched very well this season as he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his previous seven starts. He was 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in June. He’s made only one start this month because of forearm tightness. That one start did see him allow three solo shots. But those were the only runs he allowed. Jose Suarez is making his 4th start for the Angels here. The previous three all stayed Under. The Under is 20-7 in the Rockies’ last 27 games. Two southpaws going in an interleague game should equal a low-scoring output. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Reds v. Cubs -175 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs stormed back to beat the Reds last night 6-5. It was a bases loaded single from Javy Baez that won it in the bottom of the ninth. Down 5-3, the Cubs scored a run in each of the final three innings. That had to feel pretty good after losing three games in Cincinnati earlier in July - all of them by one run. We don’t think tonight’s game will be all that close though. The Cubs can be counted on to get the job done at Wrigley where they are 31-18 overall and 13-6 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Since the All Star Break, the Reds are allowing more than seven runs per game. Tough to win that way. Vladimir Gutierrez doesn’t exactly seem like a “stopper” either. He gave up three homers and six runs total in an ugly 15-11 loss to the Mets last week. Alzolay is a much better option for the Cubs even though he’s 0-6 in his last seven starts. That might sound weird, but it’s been a lack of run support that has hurt Alzolay the most. He pitched well enough to get the win on July 3rd in Cincinnati, but his offense went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. This time, at Wrigley, Alzolay will get the win. The Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the All Star Break and yesterday was the only one game to take place on the road. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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07-27-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The AL East is the only division where four teams have won at least 51% of their games. Tampa Bay is 60-40 and sitting in second place, 1.5 games behind Boston. They’ve allowed fewer runs than all their division rivals. The Yankees are tied (with Baltimore) for last in the division in runs scored. There’s only one team in the whole American League that has scored less runs than New York and that’s Texas. Similarly, there’s only one team in the whole AL that’s allowed fewer runs than the Rays and that’s the White Sox. The Yankees have gone Under in four straight, scoring all of 14 runs in those games. The number of runs allowed per game at home by the Rays is only 3.2 with the opponents batting average just .207. While this sounds like a big edge going to the Rays tonight, Jordan Montgomery figures to keep the visitors alive. The Yankees’ left-hander has a 2.94 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last three starts. The Under is 3-0. He’s given up no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. For the Rays, Shane McClanahan has allowed only one run in back to back starts. He’s given up no more than three runs in 12 of his 14 starts this year. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins -162 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA The last eight times these teams have played, the home team has won. That means trouble for Detroit, who just got swept in Kansas City over the weekend and has now dropped seven straight overall on the road. They were swept here in Minnesota right before the break. Playing at home, they won seven in a row coming out of the break. But the sweep in Kansas City showed this is still the “same old Tigers.” Minnesota has lost 8 of 11 since the break including three games in Detroit. But the success that the home team has had in this season series is likely to continue Monday. The Tigers are 19-32 on the road (55-103 L3 seasons!), giving up 5.5 runs/game. Manning lost all three of his road starts for the team and not looked good in doing so with an 8.56 ERA. After being held in check the last two days, the Twins offense has to get rolling here. Pineda has been pretty good at home (3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and beat the White Sox here his last start. The Tigers are on a 27-55 run in series openers. We know the Twins have been the opposite of profitable in 2021, but this line speaks for itself. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The first game of today’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets figures to be a pretty low-scoring affair. Remember that we’re playing only just seven innings here, which is why the total is so “low.” The Mets have the division lead and are up by five games over Atlanta coming into today. The weekend saw the NL East leaders take two of three from Toronto while the Braves split a four-game series in Philadelphia. Atlanta has alternated wins and losses since the break, going 4-5 overall. They lost 2-1 Sunday, marking the fourth time in six games they failed to score more than two runs. Scoring more than two in this first game might prove difficult as they are set to face Marcus Stroman, who threw eight shutout innings in his last start, which was against a Reds lineup that is pretty strong. Stroman allowed only one hit for the game. There have been only five times this season where Stroman allowed more than three runs and this game will be shorter than usual. Three of the five times he allowed more than three runners to score, runs were unearned. Mets’ home games average just 6.1 total runs. The Under is 7-1 in Stroman home starts. Kyle Muller has a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four starts for Atlanta, so look for a low-scoring game all-around. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-25-21 | Jamaica v. United States -175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNITED STATES Two sides with a history of success in Gold Cup quarterfinals will meet Sunday in Dallas, TX with Jamaica taking on the United States. The U.S. did not have much difficulty winning Group B as they took all three matches and allowed only one goal. They scored eight times and have now won 10 straight over CONCACAF opponents. They have lost just once in eight Gold Cup matches since 2000. The only loss for the US in their last 12 matches was a 2-1 friendly to Switzerland. Last time we saw the Americans they led Canada virtually the entire game after getting the fastest goal in Gold Cup history, just 20 seconds into the match. It was a 1-0 final. Jamaica lost by that same score to Costa Rica in their final Group C match. Like the Americans, the Reggae Boyz are unbeaten in their last three Gold Cup quarterfinals. But they have not had much success vs. the US. They’ve dropped five of the last six meetings, which includes a 4-1 Friendly back in March and losses in the knockout stage each of the last two Gold Cups. It seems as if people are doubting the US a bit too much heading into this one, which is curious given the line. Play on UNITED STATES AAA |
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07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -132 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We like Milwaukee to finish off what would be a very impressive sweep of the White Sox Sunday night. Chicago came into this interleague series with one of the best records in baseball. Only three teams have a better win percentage, but the Brewers are rapidly closing on them after the wins Friday and Saturday. The White Sox have managed only two runs against Milwaukee pitching so far. It won’t get any easier tonight when they face Brandon Woodruff. He has a 13-6 team start record this year. That record should probably be even better considering Woodruff’s ERA of 2.04 and his WHIP of 0.83. At American Family Field, the Brewers are 7-2 when he starts. In the last seven games, Milwaukee has averaged 6.3 runs/game while allowing only 3.3. Opponents’ batting average is only .193 in those seven games. Chicago is hitting just .211 its last seven games while averaging 3.4 runs. Lance Lynn won’t be enough to save them here as they are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are just a .500 team on the road overall (23-23). It’s been 7-1 and 6-1 the first two games of this series, so things haven’t even been close. The Brewers homered four times on Saturday. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER San Francisco is looking to avoid what would be a very surprising sweep on Sunday. It’s not just that they are at home and have the best win percentage in baseball. What makes the results of the last two days truly shocking is that they have lost to the Pirates, who have the fourth worst win percentage in all of baseball. A 10-2 score on Saturday caught us off-guard. Pittsburgh pounded out a season-high 16 hits and was one run away from matching a season high. It certainly stands to reason they’ll do worse at the plate today. The Bucs have scored the fewest number of runs in MLB. The Giants have given up the fewest number of runs per game. We will put our trust in Alex Wood today. Wood is unbeaten his past seven starts and he’s allowed a total of eight runs in the last four. He’s given up just one home run in those four starts. That’s one half of the equation. The other half is Pirates starter JT Brubaker keeping the Giants offense in check. We think that will happen too, even though Brubaker has struggled a bit recently. The Giants have gone five straight games with nine or fewer hits and they are 8-2 Under after scoring two runs or less the previous day. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER If you haven’t been paying close attention, the Rockies’ record against the Dodgers this year is as poor as you’d expect it to be. It’s 3-8 and that’s after a 9-6 win yesterday, a game that went 10 innings. The Dodgers’ bullpen has seemingly become a bit of an issue as it gave up six runs in the last three innings yesterday, three of them in the 10th. The Dodgers are now 1-10 in extra innings this year. That means 58-30 if they wrap things up in the usual nine. They probably will do that today. It is a three-game losing streak with blown save opportunities in every game. But Colorado is just not a good road team. Yesterday was only the 10th road win of the season. They are 2-14 at +175 or higher. No, we aren’t playing the money line though. Take the Under in this one as Tony Gonsolin (2.80 ERA in seven starts) should have no problem taking care of a Colorado lineup that is averaging 3.0 runs on the road. The Dodgers are facing Kyle Freeland whose last five starts have all gone Under. The last one was vs. the Dodgers and he only gave up three runs in six innings. Those last five starts have seen him allow only seven runs in 28 innings. Expect a low-scoring affair tonight at Chavez Ravine. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Julio Arce -190 v. Andre Ewell | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 6* on ARCE Julio Arce is dropping down to bantamweight for this fight against Andre Ewell. While Arce did lose two of his previous three fights, both losses were by split decision. He’s 8-2 in his last 10 fights with five wins coming by submission or KO. Arce is an exciting fighter with a far more diverse skill set than tonight’s opposition. Ewell is 3-3 in his last six fights and has been stopped twice. He was also beaten by decision against Chris Guttierez earlier in 2021. Arce coming off a 20-month layoff is a bit of a concern, however he also is going to have the edge in size and strength based on him dropping down a weight class. We’re taking Arce. Play on ARCE AAA |
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07-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Red Sox season-long domination of the Yankees continued Friday night with a 6-2 win at Fenway Park. Boston is now 9-2 overall vs. their hated rival in 2021, 5-0 at home. This after going 6-23 against them the previous two years. This afternoon they will face Jameson Taillon for the third time. The last one did not go well as Taillon held them to just four hits in 5.3 innings and did not give up a run. Taillon has been much better recently with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. But he’s still averaging fewer than five innings per outing this season. He has a 7.20 ERA on the road where all seven starts have gone Over the total. The Red Sox offense has been one of the big surprises in baseball this season, averaging 5.1 runs/game and 5.4 at Fenway. We look for them to have a lot more success facing Taillon today than they did last weekend. Nathan Eovaldi is starting for Boston on Saturday. This will be the fourth time he’s faced New York in 2021, all of the starts coming since June 4th. So the Yankees definitely know him well. They’ve had very little success vs. Eovaldi mind you, but we think they’ll score enough to help get this one Over the number. The Over is 13-6-1 the past 20 times NY has been a dog. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -159 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -159 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS From June 25th until July 6th, the Cubs lost 11 straight games. That losing streak really took them out of the NL Central race. They are now looking at a nine game deficit to make up in the division and it’s just as large if they want to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. Too bad that they can’t play Arizona every day then. Since ending that 11-game losing streak, the Cubs have won six times. Three of those wins were versus the Diamondbacks. Last night they won 8-3, a game they homered three times and led 7-0 when starter Zach Davies exited. In case you needed to be reminded, Arizona is a horrible baseball team. At 30-69, they have the worst overall record. They’ve also been outscored by 150 runs. The road has seen them go 11-39 and lose 31 of their last 33 games! We’ve got to play against them at this price. Especially with it being a day game, a situation that Arizona is 10-23 this year. The Cubs are used to day games. Starting today will be Alec Mills, who has a solid 3.45 ERA in six starts since becoming a regular part of the rotation. For Arizona, Merrill Kelly is probably their best starter. But even he has a 3-7 TSR away from home and a 5.33 ERA as well. The Cubs are 29-17 at home. How can we not? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Yes, we took the Under in last night’s A’s-Mariners contest and won. We cited Seattle’s really awful offensive numbers at home. Those haven’t changed, but we’ll be switching course to the Over for tonight’s game. The number is low, so it won’t take much. Yusei Kikuchi is coming off back to back rough starts for Seattle where he’s given up 12 runs in 10 innings. Oakland’s last five games have gone Under as have the last three starts by Frankie Montas. So we’re probably looking at a situation where they are due for a high scoring game. They are a higher scoring team on the road. Montas’ ERA is still 4.34 for the year. The A’s have scored at least four runs in each of their last five games vs. the Mariners. So we can count on their offense to get the job done. The Over is 12-4 the last 16 times Seattle has been off a loss, so maybe we should count on theirs too? Play on OVER AAA |
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07-23-21 | Angels -119 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA One swing of the bat altered last night’s Angels-Twins game in a major way. It was a three-run homer by Jack Mayfield that gave the road team a 3-2 win Thursday. Andrew Heaney also retired the last 11 batters he saw in his longest start of the season. It’s tough times right now in Minnesota as they just traded away Nelson Cruz. That move signified the Twins are basically throwing in the towel on 2021. They’ve been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments and that’s reflected by the fact they are down 26.2 units, second worst out of all 30 teams. Friday’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Angels as they’ve got Alex Cobb starting. He is 2-0 with 0.92 ERA in three starts this month and has allowed one or no earned runs in four of his last five starts. Minnesota’s J.A. Happ just got rocked in Detroit where he surrendered seven runs and 11 hits. That was the third time in the last six starts he allowed six or more runs and the second time in the last three. Happ has given up at least one home run in nine straight starts with multiple HR’s allowed five times. He has a 5.14 ERA in nine previous starts vs. the Angels. Shohei Ohtani, possibly feeling the effects of the All Star festivities, is just 4 for his last 24. Don’t be surprised if he has a big day at the plate tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The last time the Cardinals and Reds hooked up, the latter swept a four-game series in St. Louis. The previous series between them, also in St. Louis, was a three-game sweep for the home team. Now they meet in Cincinnati. The Reds have lost five of six games since the All Star Break. St. Louis has won five of its last six. The last two Cardinals wins were over the Cubs, both 3-2 finals. The Reds were shut out in their last game, 7-0 by the Mets on Wednesday. They finished with just one hit and two base runners for the game. Thus, we are looking for this game to be a low-scoring affair. Reds’ home games have been high scoring this year, but St. Louis comes in hitting only .219 in road games. They had just five hits in yesterday’s win. Tyler Mahle has done well in two prior starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He won both and allowed just five runs in 12 innings. One of those runs was unearned. He also has 17 strikeouts vs. only three walks. As for St. Louis, they turn to Wade LeBlanc and his 1.62 career ERA vs. the Reds is fourth best among all active starters. In his last four starts, LeBlanc has permitted only five runs over 18 innings. The number was set too high for this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Coming back home after playing two games at Coors Field should have a negative impact on the Mariners offense today. They are hitting .203 at T-Mobile Park, which is without question the lowest batting average for any team at home this year. They also own the lowest on base percentage. So do not expect Seattle to score many runs today off Sean Manaea. On top of everything you just read, Manaea shutout the Mariners over a full nine innings last month. The Under is 5-0 the past five teams Seattle has taken on a lefty at home. (Manaea is a lefty). But if there’s a “saving grace” for the Mariners in today’s game, it would be that Chris Flexen is starting. Flexen has been great at home this year with a 1.76 ERA. The Under is 7-3 in his 10 home starts. His last three starts, two of which did come at home, have resulted in a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His last seven starts have resulted in a 1.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and none of them have seen Flexen allow more than three runs. He’s allowed one or less five times and has always made it through six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rays -137 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB The Rays swept the Indians earlier this month. Since then, they’ve managed to take two of three in three straight series. They are second in the AL East, one game behind Boston. As for the Indians, they’d lost nine in a row after being swept in Tampa Bay. They’ve turned it around somewhat, but did just drop two of three in Houston. Before that, they swept Kansas City and took two of three from Oakland. The Indians are also a second place team, but are 7.5 games behind the Rays. They did win yesterday, but we see their struggles vs. the Rays continuing tonight. Tampa Bay is a good road team (95-68 L3 seasons). They average 5.3 runs/game away from home in 2021. Cleveland is 1-7 as a home underdog of +125 to +175. The Rays don’t exactly have their best starter on the mound this evening, but Luis Patino is facing a lineup that is bottom five in batting average and on base percentage. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill had not recorded a win in any of his first seven starts. He’s won his last two, but still has a 5.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Randy Arozarena has gotten hot at the plate for the Rays, who averaged seven runs/game in the previous three-game sweep of the Indians. Cleveland is 3-13 its last 16 games vs. Tampa Bay. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -130 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT Detroit is 6-0 since the All-Star Break and all signs point to them finishing off their second straight sweep. They’ve won three in a row over the Rangers, whose second half is off to a much different start. Texas has not won a game since July 9th as the losing streak hit eight with yesterday’s 4-2 loss. The most embarrassing thing of all is that Texas has failed to score more than two runs in any of its last seven games. They’ve been shutout three times, once by Detroit (14-0 in series opener) and scored a total of six runs in those last seven contests. The Rangers have the third worst record in baseball and are 13-36 on the road, 0-11 when the money line is +125 to -125. As if things couldn’t get any worse, they’ve got Mike Foltynewicz on the hill Thursday. After giving up 10 runs in an inning and two-thirds last week vs Toronto, Foltynewicz has a 6-13 team start record. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine straight starts. The last two starts have seen him give up a total of seven long balls. Detroit, whose pitching has given up a total of seven runs during its six-game win streak, will turn to Tyler Alexander today. This is a good matchup for the lefty as Texas is barely hitting over .100 its last eight games. The Rangers are 0-9 the L9 times they’ve lost the first three games of a series. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -116 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS This is the rubber match between two teams whose respective seasons have gone a bit sideways in recent weeks. The Cardinals won the first game 8-3 and were seemingly well on their way to winning again last night. But disaster struck in the bottom of the ninth when closer Alex Reyes had his first career blown save. The Cubs scored six times in the top of the ninth, sending 10 men to the plate, and wound up winning 7-6. It was only their eighth win in the last 29 games. They won and scored seven runs despite only having six hits. We will back St. Louis in this deciding game of the series as they’ve pretty clearly been the better team in the series aside from one bad inning. Adam Wainwright, who has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Busch Stadium, will be starting tonight. The Cubs only hit .217 on the road where they are 19-31 on the year. Going for the Cubs will be Kyle Hendricks. He has not lost a decision since May 9th vs. Pittsburgh and is 3-0 vs. the Cardinals in 2021. But we think he’s due for a loss here as the Cubs simply haven’t been good over the last month and are 2-10 L12 as underdogs. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We went with the White Sox last night and thanks to a five-run rally in the eighth, they won 9-5. That came on the heels of these teams splitting a doubleheader on Monday. But as we said in yesterday’s analysis, there’s no denying who the better team is here. The White Sox continue to flourish at home where they are 35-16 this year. As a home favorite of -125 to -175, they are 19-3. It seems as if the oddsmakers haven’t yet learned their lesson as the AL Central leaders are again priced in that range and it’s simply too low when facing a Twins team that is down 26.3 units on the season. Only Arizona has been a worse team to bet on. Minnesota is 3-12 vs. the White Sox this year and 1-8 in Chicago. The White Sox have won 9 of 11 overall and are one of only five teams to have a winning percentage greater than .600. We don’t think Michael Pineda can keep the Twins in this game. The team has lost his last four starts with him allowing 15 runs on 29 hits in just 16.6 innings. Dylan Cease had 10 strikeouts in his last start for the White Sox and it was also the fourth time in five starts he allowed three runs or less. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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07-20-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Seattle losing the DH in this series is somewhat mitigated by the fact they are playing at Coors Field, traditionally the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of MLB. But this is not a particularly strong offensive team. The Mariners come into tonight with a team batting average of .219. That’s the lowest average in baseball. Their on base percentage (.295) is also baseball’s worst. So is their OPS (.674). They will be facing a pitcher in German Marquez that has no problems pitching in the Mile High City. Marquez has allowed no more than one run in eight of his last ten starts. One of the other two saw him give up only two runs. The one exception where he was blasted actually came on the road (at Cincinnati). It’s five straight starts at home for Marquez, allowing two or less runs. His last three starts overall have resulted in a 0.82 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. He’s allowed only 12 hits his last five starts and just three runs! This is a pitcher you want to be on tonight. The Mariners are kind of lucky to be over .500 right now as their run differential of -51 is indicative of a team that should be well below the Mendoza Line. The Rockies are 32-19 at home this year and 7-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 7-3 vs. the American League while Seattle is 4-8 vs. the National League. With Marquez starting, this should be an easy win for the home side against Marco Gonzales, who comes in with a 6.98 road ERA. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The Twins and White Sox played a doubleheader on Monday and both teams picked up a win. Minnesota won the first game 3-2 and then the White Sox struck back with a 5-3 win in the nightcap. Both games went down to the wire as Minnesota’s win came in extra innings while Chicago won on a walkoff home run. Despite yesterday’s split, there can be no denying who the better team is here. The Sox lead the division by 8.5 games and are one of only five teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. They’ve also won 8 of 10. Minnesota got swept in Detroit to start the second half of what has been a tremendously disappointing season. The Twins are -25.3 units, making them the second worst bet in all of baseball (only Arizona is worse). This pitching matchup of Ober vs. Keuchel seems to favor the home team even more. Ober has a 6.57 ERA vs. the White Sox. Keuchel has a 3.91 ERA vs. the Twins. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It was not even close on Monday as the Nationals destroyed the Marlins 18-1. It was 10-0 after two innings and the Nats wound up finishing with 18 hits. Juan Soto has absolutely been hitting the cover off the baseball since the All Star Break. While it was the team’s second straight win, the six straight losses that preceded them shouldn't be forgotten as they gave up 10 or more runs three times in that run. So the Marlins should not wave the white flag on this series just yet. They have an excellent opportunity to put a big number on the board tonight against Paolo Espino, who last pitched in a 24-8 loss last Friday. He did not start that game, but did surrender three runs in 2.3 innings. In Espino’s last start, he gave up three runs in 3.6 innings. He has an 11.25 ERA in two prior starts vs. Miami. Of course, you’ve obviously got to respect what Washington’s lineup has been doing of late. It’s not just Soto either. They’ve pounded out double digit hits in eight of the last 11 contests. Soto is batting .588 with five home runs in the past four games. Miami’s Trevor Rogers has not made it through six innings in any of his last four starts. Nine of Washington’s last 11 games have gone Over the total and this one should follow suit. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-19-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -126 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Six games separate Boston and Toronto in the American League East with the Red Sox ahead. But the Blue Jays are the ones coming into this series with a little more momentum (i.e. a four-game win streak) and it’s also important to note their run differential for the season is much better than Boston’s. Whereas the Red Sox have a +51 run differential, the Blue Jays are +95. Boston might have the best record in the division (Toronto in third place), but the roles are swapped when it comes to run differential. Only five teams have a better run differential than Toronto. So what we’re saying is, expect them to treat Monday’s series opener as a “statement-type game.” Boston has lost its last two games, including the Sunday nighter 9-1 to the Yankees. Toronto played a doubleheader on Sunday and won both games in shutout fashion, 5-0 and 10-0. It was the first time they ever did that in franchise history. This is the final homestand in Buffalo before they get to head back to Toronto at the end of the month. The “nomadic lifestyle” has actually treated the Blue Jays fairly well as they’ve averaged 5.8 runs/game at home - whether it’s Dunedin or Buffalo. We’re highly skeptical of Boston right now as the pitching has been bad of late AND they’re not hitting. Pivetta, who is starting Monday, has a 9.00 ERA in two starts vs. Toronto this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-18-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the DODGERS Back on Opening Day, the Rockies defeated the Dodgers 8-5. They did so as +185 underdogs on the money line against Clayton Kershaw. The teams have played eight times since Opening Day and the Dodgers have won all eight. The latest win was last night by a score of 9-2. Max Muncy and Mookie Betts each had four hits, which was the same number the entire Rockies lineup produced. Walker Buehler was dealing from the start for LA as he won for the 10th time here in 2021. David Price will start Sunday’s game. Price will be making just his fifth start of the year and has logged only 9 ⅓ innings. But we are not overly concerned with that as he figures to get lots of run support today. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Dodgers have scored six or more runs in six of their last seven games. The Rockies are obviously better at home and Jon Gray isn’t a bad starter. But they are also not even close to being the same caliber of team as the Dodgers, who have won 40 of their last 58 games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-18-21 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped last night as they lost 3-1 to the Cardinals. That result definitely caught us by surprise even though we’d acknowledged how good Kwang Hyun-Kim had been for St. Louis. Today we’ll take the Over as it won’t be Kim pitching for the Cardinals. Instead it will be veteran Wade LeBlanc. His four starts have yielded a 1.77 WHIP. Three of those fours starts have seen LeBlanc fail to go five innings. You have to figure he’ll be giving up several runs here to a Giants offense that averages 5.0 runs/game and is 10-4 Over its last 14 games at Busch Stadium. But the reason we’re taking Over here (as opposed to the Giants again) is because San Francisco’s starter isn’t much better than LeBlanc. While LeBlanc gave up three runs in the first inning of his last start, Johnny Cueto gave up four runs in six innings to this very opponent back on 7/6. Cueto has given up nine runs in his last two starts. He has a 5.64 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-18-21 | Brewers -130 v. Reds | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE There probably isn’t a starting pitcher with a more misleading team start record than the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes. Burnes has started 15 times this year and the Brewers are only 7-8 in those games. But that completely undersells just how well he has pitched. Burnes has both a 2.26 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both those numbers are among the top five in baseball. The fact he was selected as an All Star tells you all you need to know. We look for Burnes to lead Milwaukee to a sweep of Cincinnati on Sunday. The Brewers have been outstanding in day games this year with a 28-12 record. They are also 28-18 on the road after yesterday’s 11 inning victory. That’s a better record than they have at home. The lead in the NL Central has now grown to six games over the Reds. A big reason for that is the Brewers are giving up just 3.4 runs/game on the road. Burnes’ numbers are even better on the road (1.98 ERA, 0.79 WHIP). Overall, he’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. So his record ought to be much better. Sonny Gray has pitched only 12 innings in the last month for the Reds, thus he’s far less trustworthy in this spot. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX An improbable Game 4 victory saw the Bucks take nearly 20 more shots from the field. That was the key as they were outshot 51.3% to 40.2%, but still won 109-103. Not only did they win, they covered the 4.5-point spread as well. But now it's back to Phoenix. The home team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series and we believe that trend is going to continue in Game 5 Saturday night. The Suns should have won Game 4. Devin Booker was on fire the entire game, but was eventually cooled off by foul trouble. We don’t see a player of Booker’s caliber getting into foul trouble at home. Chris Paul should play better in Game 5. He had just 10 points and five turnovers in Game 4. Kris Middleton went for 40 for the Bucks, but as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, he’s better at home. The Suns made only 16 of 54 three-point attempts in the two games at Milwaukee. They made 20 threes in Game 2, the last time here. Milwaukee has not won or even covered a game in Phoenix the last three seasons. The Bucks really aren’t a great road team (just 25-22 SU) and they are just 3-7 ATS as underdogs this year. This is only the second time in the entire playoff run that the Suns have lost two in a row. Their one and only three game losing streak this season occurred back in January. We can’t see them losing a third straight game here. Lay the number. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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07-17-21 | Giants -116 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants won yesterday by a score of 7-2. They got four strong innings from emergency starter Logan Webb while Mike Yastrzemski homered twice. No team boasts a better record than San Francisco’s 58-32 and they’ll need to continue winning as the Dodgers remain just two games back. Luckily, they are facing the Cardinals, who are 44-47 but have been outscored by 45 runs. The Giants do have to face Kwang Hyun-Kim, who has not allowed a run in his last 13 innings of work. But they’ve got Anthony DeSclafani starting and he not only has a 13-5 team start record but also a 0.99 WHIP for the season.In his last seven starts, DeSclafani is 6-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. That’s excellent. He threw six scoreless innings in his last start. It was the third time in his last six starts he didn’t allow a run, one of those being a complete game. St. Louis is just 8-20 its last 28 games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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07-16-21 | Indians v. A's -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) It will be interesting to see how Cleveland approaches the second half. Eight games back of the White Sox, they are not likely to win the AL Central. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Injuries have taken their toll on the Indians, particularly their starting rotation. They are not a team looking to spend money, so we’d be shocked if they were “buyers” before the trade deadline. It might behoove them to be sellers and build for the future. The Indians are big underdogs Friday in Oakland as they face Chris Bassitt, who is 10-2 in his 19 starts (14-5 TSR). The A’s are also a second place team, but in a better position than Cleveland. They have seven more wins and a much better run differential as well. We expect the home team to win tonight by two runs or more. Eli Morgan has made just five starts for Cleveland. The last one came on July 3rd. He has an 8.43 ERA this year. Bassitt has allowed no more than two runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. The Indians have lost eight straight games to teams with winning records. They are 1-7 their last eight games here in Oakland. The A’s are an amazing 49-13 their last 62 games vs. the AL Central. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two AL West clubs hooked up right before the All Star Break. Seattle won the first two games, but then the Angels avoided a sweep with a 7-1 win on Sunday. We expect there to be a fair number of runs scored tonight. Seattle’s Chris Flexen has made six starts on the road so far. All six have gone Over the total. He’s been a big contributing factor in that, posting a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Andrew Heaney, who will start for the Angels Friday, has also been a bit of an “Over machine.” The Over is 12-2 in his 14 starts and he’s got a 9.42 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in the previous three. So there’s definitely reason to believe that one or both starters will struggle tonight. This series being in LA should also lead to more offense than what we saw from the Angels last weekend when they scored a total of 10 runs in three games. They are putting up 5.5 runs/game at home. That’s tied for the third highest average in baseball. The only teams higher are Toronto (who is playing in a minor league stadium) and Colorado (Coors Field). The Over is 51-24-3 in the Angels past 78 home games, including 41-17-2 when they are the favorite (as they are here). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Both teams shot relatively well in Game 3. Phoenix, despite trailing by double digits most of the way and losing by 20 points, actually shot slightly better. They finished the game at 48.2% while Milwaukee was at 47.8%. The Bucks attempted seven more shots total and made three more. They were also more effective from three, going 14 of 36 while Phoenix was only 9 of 31. We had predicted the Suns wouldn’t come close to making 20 threes again (like they did in Game 2) and sure enough we were correct about that. The Bucks were also better from the free throw line, a series first. While the Bucks winning Game 3 was never in doubt, the total came down to the wire and the result (Over or Under) very much depended on what number you got. We believe Game 4 will be the lowest scoring game in the series to date. Both these teams are giving up less than 105 points/game in the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, seemingly no longer injured, is coming off back to back 40+ point games. Don’t think we’ll see a third in a row though. During the playoffs, the Bucks are 5-1-1 Under when down in a series. The Under is also 7-3-1 L11 home games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-11-21 | Rockies v. Padres -173 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -173 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO San Diego had no answers at the plate for German Marquez and thus lost 3-0 to Colorado last night. Marquez is good, but that’s an embarrassing loss for the Padres to a team that is 8-34 on the road. It was also their first time losing to the Rockies this season. With no Marquez to worry about Sunday, we will take the Padres again as Jon Gray, who starts today’s game for the Rockies, has an 0-6 team start record on the road. The current road trip is the 1st time all season that Colorado has won multiple times. They have NEVER won consecutive road games at any point in 2021. So this one seems pretty easy. Look for the Padres offense to supply Ryan Weathers with more than enough support. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-11-21 | White Sox -172 v. Orioles | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX As you would have expected, the White Sox have not had much trouble with the Orioles this weekend. They won the first two games at Camden Yards by scores of 12-1 and 8-3. The AL Central leaders have won four in a row and have already clinched the biggest division lead in all of baseball going into the All Star Break. So you should expect them to finish the sweep Sunday. Baltimore is guaranteed the worst record among American League teams in the first half. They are 28-60 and a lock to finish in last place once again in the AL East. It’s not just the last two days where Chicago has had Baltimore’s number. They are 6-0 in the season series. The Orioles have only managed 11 runs in those six losses. All things considered, the White Sox should be a much bigger favorite. Dylan Cease will start Sunday. He did struggle on Monday vs. Minnesota. But he did not struggle vs. Baltimore back on May 27th. There he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts while allowing one run and four hits. The White Sox have scored 38 runs off Orioles pitching in the six games so far and are likely to put many more on the board today against Spenser Watkins, who is making just his second career start. “We’re in dire need of rotation help,” said manager Brandon Hyde after Saturday’s loss. Don’t think Watkins gives it to them. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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07-10-21 | Rockies v. Padres -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO This is a mismatch. San Diego beat Colorado 4-2 on Friday. It was the second straight day where the Padres rallied to win. Last night wasn’t nearly as exciting as the 9-8 win against Washington on Thursday. That one saw them come back from an 8-0 deficit, tying the largest rally in team history. The Padres have now won nine straight home games over the Rockies, who are a miserable 7-34 on the road this year. So the fact that SD had to rally to win last night doesn’t scare us at all. Expect them not to fall into an early hole tonight because of the fact Joe Musgrove is starting. Musgrove, responsible for one of MLB’s no-hitters this year, continues to pace the rotation with a 0.97 WHIP. He has a 2.89 ERA at home. When Musgrove faced the Rockies back on 5/19 (it was here in SD), he shut them out for seven innings, allowed just two hits and had 11 strikeouts. The Padres’ bullpen was pretty flawless last night. So when they are called upon here, there won’t be any drop off from Musgrove. The Rockies score just 2.8 runs/game away from home, a big reason for that terrible record of theirs. German Marquez has pitched very well of late for Colorado. But he has a 1-5 team start record on the road. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-10-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Yankees turned in a very impressive victory on Friday night as four pitchers combined to turn in a three-hit shutout of the Astros. That’s no small feat. Houston scores more than every other team in baseball - at 5.5 runs/game. So it’s difficult to imagine them getting shut down again. This time, Houston must face Gerrit Cole, but he’s 0-3 in his last three starts and his ERA and WHIP are 6.46 and 1.63. The Over is also 3-0 in those three starts. It’s 5-1 in Cole’s last six starts. He’s really struggled in the last two, giving up 10 runs in 8.3 innings. Cole has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, a rather dubious streak. The Yankees, who have not gone Under in back to back games this month, will face Zack Greinke. Again, this may sound challenging from an offensive point of view. But the Over is 13-5 in Greinke starts in 2021, 8-1 at home. He has a 5.26 ERA at home. Before yesterday, the previous seven Yankees games averaged 11.0 total runs scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-10-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Our only losing selection on Friday was the Over in this matchup. We’re doubling down on Saturday. Atlanta put up five runs yesterday, which we expected. But we did not see Miami getting blanked. The Marlins could manage just two hits against Charlie Morton, even though it was the fourth time they’d faced him in 2021. Expect them to fare better at the plate this afternoon vs. Max Fried. Fried has yet to defeat Miami in eight career tries. He’s 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Two of those losses have come this year as he’s allowed 11 runs in 10 innings. Also, Fried just gave up six runs in his last start. The start before that, however, was a 20-2 win. His last three starts have all gone Over. He has a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road. Trevor Rogers is having a great rookie season for the Marlins … except when he faces the Braves. He has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against them. This is a pretty low total for a matchup where one of the starters looks shaky and where you have to figure one of the teams (Atlanta) is going to score 4-5 runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-09-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These teams just met last weekend. All three games were decided by one run. The first two - a 1-0 win for the Braves and then a 3-2 win for the Marlins - were low-scoring games. Then the Braves took the series with an 8-7 win on the 4th of July. Their next series, which saw them drop two of three to Pittsburgh, didn’t go as well. But they did score 14 runs in the final game Wednesday. Miami just wrapped up a series against the Dodgers that went much better than expected. Though they lost yesterday 6-1 (we had the Dodgers), Miami won the first three games of that series and did so by scoring 16 runs. We are predicting today’s game to be pretty high-scoring. We’ve got our concerns about Braves starter Morton, who is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts vs. Miami this year. Four different catchers have caught Morton in 2021 and the one who had been doing the best job was just sent back to Triple-A. In a rematch from Sunday, Morton is once again matched up with Thompson for Miami. Thompson has just five big league starts under his belt, but two were against Atlanta. So the Braves hitters should be more comfortable facing him this time. The Over is 17-3-2 in Atlanta’s last 22 Friday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON We like Boston here as Thursday was an off-day for them while Philadelphia had to wrap up a four-game series with Chicago. The off day isn’t the only reason we like the Red Sox though. They are 27-17 both at home and on the road and are the current AL East leaders with a 54-34 record. They did lose Tuesday and Wednesday to the Angels. But this is a team that’s dominated Interleague play so far (a 10-2 record) and is 36-19 in night games. They also haven’t lost three in a row since early June. Their longest losing streak all year has been three games and that’s happened only three times. Since starting the season 0-3, the Red Sox are 8-2 when off back to back losses. So it’s a good spot to take them today. The team Philadelphia just took three of four from (Cubs) is in a terrible way right now. The Phillies are still just 18-27 on the road. Vince Velasquez has a 1-3 TSR his last four starts overall and his last two starts on the road have seen him surrender 10 runs in seven innings. Garrett Richards has also struggled for Boston, but we trust he’ll get better run support in this one. The team is 4-2 in Richards’ last six starts. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-09-21 | White Sox -131 v. Orioles | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO This is a shockingly low price considering the two teams involved. You’d have to consider the White Sox as one of the top American League teams. They’ve basically led the AL Central the whole way and currently enjoy a 7.5 game lead over the rest of their division. That’s the largest lead for any current division leader. They have a 51-33 record and a +99 run differential. They did not play Thursday after taking two in a row from the Twins. Baltimore is the worst team in the American League. They are 30 games under .500 and have a -120 run differential. They got rained out yesterday, which probably spared them another loss. Even with several players still injured, the White Sox have a stronger lineup than the Orioles. They swept them back on Memorial Day Weekend, taking all four games at Guaranteed Rate Field by multiple runs. Look for more of the same Friday. Dallas Keuchel is off a rough start, but has a 3.23 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Baltimore. Jorge Lopez, the Orioles starter for this game, hasn’t been good at all. He has a 4-13 team start record and is 0-5 his L5 starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Game 1 went Over the total, just as we predicted. In a surprising plot twist, Giannis Antetokounmpo was cleared to play right before tipoff. He scored 20 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. We expected a high volume of threes from the Bucks and they delivered on that, attempting 36 and making 16. Kris Middleton led the team with 29 points. But it wasn’t enough to overcome 32 points from Chris Paul in his NBA Finals debut as the Suns won 118-105. Phoenix may not have been as productive from behind the arc, but they were 25 of 26 from the free throw line. Deandre Ayton also had a better game than Giannis - statistically speaking - with 22 points and 19 rebounds. But there was a touch of bad news for the Suns coming off their first Finals win in 28 years. Dario Saric tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the series. So Monty Williams is going to have to reconfigure his rotation. Expect Paul’s scoring to decrease in Game 2. Ayton now doesn’t have a backup. Overall, six Suns scored in double figures in Game 1. That’s probably not happening again. For Milwaukee, it remains to be seen if Antetokounmpo can play as well as he did in Game 1. Middleton, like Paul for Phoenix, will likely see his scoring decrease in Game 2. The Under is 8-1 for Milwaukee when they are off a straight up loss. The one exception was Game 5 vs. Atlanta, ironically the first of two games without Giannis. They are also 8-2 Under this season when on a streak of three or more consecutive Overs. The Bucks’ last three games have all gone Over. Not this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A new series starts Thursday with two teams at/near the bottom of the AL Central. Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments of the first half. They are in last place with a 35-50 record and could end up being sellers at the trade deadline. Only Arizona, who is having a disastrous year, has dropped more units at the betting window than have the Twins. They’ve lost seven of nine including each of the past two days to the White Sox. Detroit has been surprisingly competitive of late with wins in six of its last eight. They just beat Texas 5-3 yesterday afternoon. The thing about the Tigers though is you can’t really trust their offense. They are down among the lowest scoring American League teams. Lucky for them then that the Twins have scored just one run each of their last two games. The respective starters for Thursday - Tarik Skubal for Detroit and J.A. Happ for Minnesota - don’t exactly have the most sparkling numbers. But we expect both to pitch well in this spot. Both are lefties. Neither team is great vs. left-handed pitching. The Tigers are on a 10-3-2 run to the Under when facing a team that scored two runs or less in its last game. After a recent offensive surge and the Over going 7-0-2 their past nine games, they are due for a bit of a decline. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have had their problems with Miami in this series, losing all three games so far. They’ll look to avoid the sweep this afternoon behind Jose Urias. He is 10-3 in his 17 starts (13-4 TSR) with a 3.81 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. Numbers on the road - where he has gone 7-2 - are even better. The first two losses of the series saw the Dodgers go down by one run each time. Yesterday was 9-6 final decided on a walk-off HR by Jesus Aguilar. The Marlins have now walked off two days in a row. So it’s not as if the Dodgers have necessarily been dominated, or are even playing poorly. Remember that this is the team that carries the best run differential in the National League (+113) and is one of only four teams - in all of baseball - with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Miami is better than its record, but still in last place in the NL East. July has been the worst month for starter Sandy Alcantara in terms of ERA (4.95). That’s for his career. The Dodgers had won nine in a row coming into this series. Only two times this season have they lost four in a row. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-07-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Yankees beat the Mariners last night by a score of 12-1. That made us happy as we were on the road team. The Yankees were very desperate for a win as they are 4th in the American League East and had previously dropped seven of nine games. Starting the series with such an emphatic win is something they hope leads to a strong final week before the All Star Break. For the Mariners, blowout losses are not uncommon. They have a -53 run differential on the year. We point that out because their record is 45-41. The 34-52 Rangers have a -51 run differential. So Seattle is lucky to even be in Wild Card contention. Tonight’s game may not end up being so lopsided, but we anticipate it being just as high scoring. In his last four starts, the Yankees’ Domingo German has allowed 18 runs in 15.3 innings. That’s more runs than Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has allowed in his last nine starts combined. But Kikuchi is facing a team that just put 12 runs on the board last night. The Yankees are 5-1 Over their last six games. Seattle is 6-1 Over after a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Turns out we were wrong to count out the Canadiens in Game 4 as they stayed alive by winning in overtime, 3-2. We all know the trend with Tampa Bay -- they are 14-0 SU the last two postseasons after a loss. Plus they are now back at home, so it’s no shock that they are heavily favored to end the series tonight. But we’ll grab the +1.5 with the Habs on the puck line as this one shouldn’t get out of hand. They outshot TB in two of the four games and in the series. What’s interesting is they were outshot in Game 4 34-21. But the two previous games saw them end up with a +25 edge in shots on goal. It was nice to see goalie Carey Price have a bounce back game Monday night. You’ve gotta figure he’ll be on the top of his game again tonight. Price still owns a .922 save percentage in the playoffs. The Lightning were an uncharacteristic 0 for 6 on the power play in the last game, but we don’t see Montreal giving them so many chances again. Line changes worked for Montreal in Game 4, so expect the same lineup. Even though everyone is counting them out, don’t be surprised if the Habs win again tonight. We don’t foresee an outcome worse than a one-goal defeat here. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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07-07-21 | Phillies -131 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies have taken the first two games at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have now lost 11 in a row overall. Yesterday’s final score ended up being 15-10, but the Phillies initially led 7-0 and 15-4. That was after a 13-3 win on Monday. Those kind of scores and an 11-game losing streak pretty much “paints the picture” and is all you really need to know about what’s taking place in the Windy City right now. In 17 of the last 22 games, the Cubs have not scored more than three runs. Yesterday was only the third instance (in those last 22 games) of them scoring more than four runs and that’s only because of some late, meaningless damage in the final three innings. We don’t see the Cubs doing much offensively early in tonight’s game as they are set to face Zack Wheeler. Over 17 starts, Wheeler has a 2.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has not allowed a single run in four of his last five starts and all four saw him go at least six innings. The task for Cubs starter Alec Mills is tough as the Phillies have homered eight times in two games. The Cubs have been outscored 83-35 during this losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-07-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We went with the Rangers yesterday, even though they had a starter (Dane Dunning) who came in with a 4-12 team start record. They beat the Tigers 10-5. So we’ve got little hesitation selecting them again today as they hand Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) the ball for the series finale. Gibson has undoubtedly been the Rangers best starter in 2021. In addition to having not dropped a single decision, he has 12 quality starts to his name and is working on a streak of nine straight (starts) where he’s allowed two runs or less. At home, Gibson has an 8-0 TSR, 1.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He is the American League’s ERA leader. Detroit’s leadoff hitter is injured and they could only muster up five hits yesterday. We think they’ve been pretty lucky to have scored 12 runs in the two games so far at Arlington. Casey Mize, who is being limited to no more than three innings, will start this game for the Tigers. He’s going to have to deal with John Hicks, who has four homers in four games since being called up. Texas is 7-1 L8 as home favorites and has the clear edge in starting pitching today. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-06-21 | Yankees -144 v. Mariners | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees could really use a win here as they are stuck in fourth place in the AL East and only a game over .500. They split a doubleheader with the Mets on Sunday, but have dropped seven of nine overall. Seattle keeps defying the odds with a better than .500 record as they’ve given up a lot more runs than they have scored this season. They have a better record than the Yankees, but the oddsmakers are not fooled by that and neither are we. A big problem for the Yankees recently has been the bullpen, specifically Aroldis Chapman. But we like the matchup of Jameson Taillon going against a Seattle lineup that hits only .207 at home. Taillon has won his last two starts, both in blowout fashion. There was an 8-1 win over Kansas City and 11-3 win over the Angels. Taillon has been much better when pitching outside the division (as those last two starts show). Justus Sheffield has not had a good year for the Mariners and things appear to be getting worse as his ERA and WHIP are now 5.75 and 1.70. He’s made one career start vs. the Yankees and it did not go well. He allowed five runs in 4.3 innings. The Yankees are 21-5 their last 26 games in Seattle. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The obvious story coming into these NBA Finals is the health of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee probably can’t win the series without him. But in the last two games, they have proven they can at least score with Giannis on the bench. Putting up 118 and 123 points was impressive. Consider that those last two games vs. Atlanta both rank among the Bucks’ top five highest scoring games this entire postseason run. Giannis is doubtful for G1 (despite “good progress”), so we’ll just assume he isn’t going to play. Based on those last two games, we do think Milwaukee will score enough to help send this one Over the total. In Game 6 vs. the Hawks, they knocked down 17 of 45 three-point attempts. We envision a high volume of three-point attempts tonight. Middleton and Holliday have certainly proven they can pick up the slack when Giannis is out. Phoenix scored 130 when it closed out the Clippers last Wednesday. They are 7-0 Over this season after a game in which they scored at least 130 points. The last three times they have faced Milwaukee, the Suns have scored a minimum of 125 points. The Bucks give up about 114 points/game on the road. That seems like a reasonable number for Phoenix to hit tonight and if they do, this one almost certainly goes Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-06-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The first place White Sox came into Monday with a 14.5 game lead over the last place Twins. A big reason for that was an 8-1 head to head record in the season series. But the AL Central leaders could not get the bats going until it was too late last night and ended up losing 8-5. It was the third straight loss for the White Sox, tied for their second longest losing streak of the season. They have gone Over in eight straight games, but injuries are mounting and will begin to take a toll on this lineup. Jose Berrios is who will be starting today for Minnesota. He’s really had the White Sox number in the past. Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 18 previous starts against them. He may not be as good as Bailey Ober was last night, but Berrios hasn’t given up more than four runs in any start this year. We don’t expect to see another eight-run effort from the Twins tonight as they face All-Star Carlos Rodon. The numbers for Rodon are better on the road than at home. He and Berrios faced off last week and while that game also ended up being an 8-5 final (but in favor of the White Sox), this one should feature a lot less scoring. Rodon has allowed one or no runs in 10 of his 14 starts this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-06-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -170 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TEXAS The Rangers got beat 7-3 in Monday’s series opener. Three errors and a failure to really get anything going against Tigers starter Wily Peralta doomed them. But we think they’ll bounce back on Tuesday when they get to face the struggling Jose Urena. June was very unkind to Urena as he went 0-4 with a 12.50 ERA. Most damning of all is that he pitched a total of just 18 innings and gave up 28 runs! Urena did not factor into the decision the last time he pitched, a game the Tigers won 9-4 in Cleveland. The reason Urena did not factor into the decision is he allowed FOUR home runs! He was quite fortunate that all four were solo shots. Texas homered twice with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night. Hopefully, they can homer in more meaningful spots tonight. On the mound, Dane Dunning is still having his innings limited. But he did toss four scoreless innings last week vs. Oakland. Dunning has a 79-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. One Tigers’ hitter that he won’t have to worry about is leadoff man Daz Cameron, who sprained his toe before Monday’s game. His replacement Akil Baddoo went 0 for 5 in the leadoff spot last night. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-05-21 | Lightning -147 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -147 | 37 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB The Montreal Canadiens made an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals. They have been the underdog in every one of their playoff games, rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Toronto and also defeated heavily favored Vegas along the way. But it would appear as if the Lightning are too much for them. Tampa Bay needs one more win to repeat as champions and we think they’ll make this series a sweep on Monday. The first three games were all decided by two more goals with the Lightning outscoring the Habs 14-5. It was a series-high six goals in Game 3, proving that they don’t need the home ice advantage to win. Tampa Bay has won 14 of its last 16 games against Montreal. They have not even trailed for a single second in this series. The Canadiens had the lowest point percentage of any of the 16 playoff teams and were the only one to post a negative goal differential in the regular season. It really is a bit miraculous that they even made it this far. Goalie Carey Price has seen his save percentage plummet to .835 in this series. The NHL season ends on Monday night. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Reds are one of the higher scoring NL teams, so with the DH in play here in Kansas City it stands to reason they will have no trouble scoring runs off Royals pitching. Now Cincy has been winning in relatively low-scoring fashion recently. They’ve had to put no more than three runs on the board in each of the last three wins. But tonight they’re up against Mike Minor, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last three starts. Minor gave up five runs to Boston in his last start. That was after giving up nine to Texas. The Over is 6-2 in all Minor home starts this year. But also with poor numbers of late is Reds starter Gutierrez. He has a 8.22 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He just gave up six runs to San Diego his last time out. The Royals had scored a combined 13 runs the previous two days before losing 6-2 Sunday. They are giving up 5.1 runs/game for the year. Meanwhile, on average, Reds’ games are already the second highest scoring in the league (trailing only the Angels). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers -153 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD Miami is a team we faded on Sunday and they ended up losing 8-7 (in 10 innings) to Atlanta. In the analysis, we talked about how the Marlins had been held to three runs or less in 12 of their previous 16 games. Well, they broke out for seven (runs) yesterday and still lost. The Dodgers are a team we routinely take and that’s for good reason. They are one of baseball’s best. They made it a four-game sweep of Washington on Sunday with a 5-1 win. That was LA’s ninth win in a row overall. So they are firing on all cylinders right now as they send Walker Buehler to the mound this evening. Buehler has an 11-5 team start record this year. Personally, he’s gone 8-1 and has a 0.90 WHIP. His numbers are a little bit better on the road, but regardless of where he’s pitched, Buehler is working on a streak of nine consecutive quality starts. Trevor Rogers looks like a fine option for Miami but the problem is he’s up against a juggernaut. The Dodgers offense averages a full run more per game than the Marlins. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-04-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF -1.5 Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-04-21 | Marlins v. Braves -185 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Miami (35-46) isn’t having a good season but they are 6-3 vs. Atlanta following a 3-2 win last night. The Braves did have more hits Saturday. Neither team has done much scoring in this particular series as the Braves won the opener 1-0 on Friday. Last night proved to be their sixth failed attempt at getting to .500 on the year. Still they’ve won 10 of 17 and three of their last four games. Charlie Morton on the mound means the Marlins probably aren’t going to score many runs today either. Morton has a 1.31 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his last three starts. All three starts were quality as Morton allowed just three runs (all in the last one) and nine hits. He had 25 strikeouts and only three walks. A 20 ⅔ scoreless inning streak was snapped in his last start. The Braves actually lost that game, 4-3 to the Mets, though Morton did not factor into the decision. He has a 6-2 team start record in his last eight starts. Miami has been held to three runs or less in 12 of its previous 16 games. So all we need here is for the Braves’ hitters to break out to a reasonable degree and we like their chances as they are averaging 5.4 runs/gamme at home. Zach Thompson has just four starts under his belt and this will be Atlanta’s second time seeing him. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It was a pretty misleading final score last night at Coors Field. The Cardinals won 9-3, but scored six runs in the top of the 10th. Still, while the game ended up higher scoring than what it “should have been” (still went Under), this is Coors Field and plenty of runs should always be expected. The Rockies, as is usually the case every year, lead all teams in runs per game at home. This year, the number is 5.8 runs/game. You can count on Colorado scoring more tonight than they did Friday as they will face Wade LeBlanc, who has made two less than impressive starts for St. Louis. The Rockies’ last six games have all gone Under, which is atypical, especially since the last five have all taken place at home. But they’re not facing the Pirates anymore (who they swept in the last series and shutout twice). The Cardinals should put up runs here against Kyle Freeland, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While Freeland has allowed just one run total in his last two starts, those were against Pittsburgh and Seattle, perhaps the two weakest offenses in MLB. After a string of low-scoring games here, expect the typical Coors Field affair on Saturday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 216 | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER In the last two games of this series, we have seen both teams deliver a win without the respective superstars. With Trae Young out, Atlanta shot 50.6% in a 110-88 win in Game 4. Young also missed Game 5, as did Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks. This time it was “the others” on the Bucks stepping up. The new starting five combined for all but 17 of Milwaukee’s 123 points in the win Thursday night. Whether it was Atlanta without Young in Game 4 or Milwaukee without Giannis in Game 5, the home team responded better to not having their superstar both times. It remains to be seen if either will play in Game 6. But regardless, we think the total is too low. It opened more than 10 points lower from where it closed in Game 2. That makes sense due to the uncertain statuses of Young and Giannis. But the supporting casts have proven themselves capable of picking up the slack. It’ll probably be Atlanta’s turn tonight. They averaged 111 points/game in the two without Young. Milwaukee is averaging 112.4 points/game in the series. We see both teams getting to 110 tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers -189 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA You get the feeling that if Washington was going to beat the Dodgers this weekend, yesterday was the best shot. They had Max Scherzer on the mound and a 3-1 lead through six. But the bullpen really let the Nationals down on Friday, giving up a nine-run 7th. While it’s true that we were on the Nats last night, Clayton Kershaw going here for the Dodgers means it’s time to “abandon ship” and get on the other side in a hurry. Kershaw is having another solid year with a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team is only 10-7 in his 17 starts, but easily won the last one (9-1 over the Cubs) with Kershaw striking out 13 and allowing one run in eight innings. That was his fourth straight quality start. The Dodgers have now won seven in a row overall and the five runs given up yesterday were the most in any game during the streak. They’ve allowed only 15 runs total in the seven games. The Nationals' task of scoring runs against Kershaw is now even harder as they lost Kyle Schwarber to an injury yesterday. Schwarber had homered 16 times in June, a franchise record. Washington’s starter Paolo Espino has looked good so far, but it’s a small sample size (just three starts) and he hasn’t faced a lineup like the Dodgers (#1 in NL in scoring) yet. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-03-21 | England v. Ukraine UNDER 2.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER England has yet to concede a single goal at Euro 2020. No other side can say that about themselves. Taking it further, there have been only four goals scored in all four matches involving The Three Lions and two of those came in the Round of 16 win over Germany. England has held each of its four opponents to tournament lows in shots on goals. So that’s the task ahead of Ukraine, who is in a World Cup/Euro Cup quarterfinal for just the second time in its history. They defeated Sweden to get here, getting the game-winning goal in the 121st minute. Sweden was playing with 10 men, if you recall. Ukraine has scored twice in three of its four matches, but that’s including an added time goal and facing North Macedonia. They did get blanked by Austria. We don’t see them getting on the scoresheet Saturday. But we can’t trust England to do so either, at least inside of 90 minutes. So Under is the correct call for this quarterfinal matchup. England has not allowed a goal in their last 540 minutes of competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-03-21 | Denmark +117 v. Czech Republic | Top | 2-1 | Win | 117 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENMARK As we said right before the last time they hit the pitch, Denmark has the potential to be an all-time great story in Euro 2020. We all know the terrible situation that occurred in their opening match with Christian Eriksen. On top of that, losing their first two matches seemed to doom any chance Denmark had of getting past the group stage. But they defied the odds, thanks to a dominant 4-1 win over Russia and some other things going their way. We liked them going into the Round of 16 vs. Wales and boy did they deliver there, winning 4-0. For a team that’s won two and lost two so far, Denmark has played far better than you might think. They’ve allowed the fewest number of shots (24) and expected goals (2.1) in the competition. At the same time, they are second in shots themselves (74) and goals scored (9). They are 4th in expected goals (7.8). Their +51 shot differential trails only Italy. They’ve gotten off at least 16 shots in all four matches while never allowing more than 11. Czech Republic is off an impressive 2-0 win against the Netherlands, but they are much lower (among quarterfinalists) in shots and expected goals. We wouldn’t want to be caught betting against this Denmark side right now as they are playing for Christian Eriksen and are highly motivated. Play on DENMARK AAA |
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07-02-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox just swept a series against another division rival (Minnesota). All three games also went Over. The team’s win streak and Over streak is actually now at four, going back to a 7-5 win against Seattle on Sunday. In each of the four games, Chicago scored seven or more runs. Not sure they’ll go that high today. But they’ll score enough to help another game go Over the total. They average 5.0 runs/game on the road. The number here is pretty low considering how hot the White Sox have been at the plate of late. Also, Detroit totaled 16 runs in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Wednesday. They had yesterday off. Lance Lynn, who had been having an outstanding year for Chicago, has struggled some of late. His ERA in the last three starts is 5.54 and his WHIP is 1.54. The team is 0-4 in his last four starts. He’s certainly owed some run support though as the White Sox have scored only nine runs in those last four starts. We think he’ll get the requisite run support here. But also look for Detroit to put some runs on the board. Casey Mize will start for the Tigers on Friday. 13 of his 15 starts have stayed Under, but we’ll buck that trend as this will be the third time the White Sox have faced him in 2021. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PIT +1.5 Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5 AAA |
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07-02-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals -103 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON This might be as good a time as any to fade the Dodgers. We are getting Max Scherzer starting at home for the Nationals at a very discounted price. Los Angeles did win Thursday’s series opener 6-2. But that was a rain-shortened game. It was called after five innings and the difference was a Muncy grand slam for the Dodgers. Washington had the early 2-1 lead going into the fifth. While it was the sixth straight win for the Dodgers, all of them before yesterday were at home. The Nationals came into this series on their own four-game win streak and 14-3 in their last 17 games. As good as Urias has been for LA, Scherzer has better numbers. Scherzer has made 10 straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs. In the month of June, he went 3-0 and allowed just three runs in four starts. He only allowed 12 hits! Let’s not forget about the other “hot” player for the Nats, that being Kyle Schwarber. He’d homered 12 times in the previous 10 games before yesterday. He didn’t get a full nine innings to extend that streak. Urias has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. This is a big revenge game for the home team as they are 0-4 vs. the Dodgers this season. If there were ever a spot where you’d take them to beat the reigning World Series champs, it would be this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +2 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATL The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mets -157 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We shouldn’t have to sell you too much on the idea of betting Jacob deGrom. The Mets have won the last eight times he has started and he hasn’t allowed a run in five of those outings. He’s allowed only four runs total in the eight starts and only six all season! Yes, this is an all-time great season as deGrom has a record-setting 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP. He hasn’t even allowed a single run on the road. We could think of no one better to be on the mound as the Mets look to rebound from a humiliating 20-2 loss to the Braves last night. In retrospect, Atlanta probably should have “saved” some of that scoring for today. deGrom did allow two runs in the last start, but that was after allowing zero runs in five consecutive starts. Honestly, it’s just as simple as betting the best pitcher in baseball in this one. This will be just the third time in his last 11 starts that deGrom isn’t a favorite of -235 or higher on the money line. The other two were both against San Diego and the Mets won those. Play on NY METS AAA |