Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Houston just suffered what was possibly the most shocking sweep of the MLB season, losing all three games to Baltimore as big-time favorites. Now they turn around and head to Cleveland to face an Indians team that was just swept in a doubleheader - by Detroit - yesterday. The Astros have played 16 games in 16 days. So fatigue could be a factor for both clubs heading into this one. Nevertheless, we expect the hitters to take charge in tonight’s series opener. Houston is the highest scoring team in baseball at 5.8 runs/game and actually averages more when they are on the road. Tonight they go against JC Mejia, a starting pitcher that has a 6.27 ERA so far this year. It should be pointed out that Indians pitching allowed 16 runs in only 14 innings yesterday to a Tigers team that averages significantly fewer runs/game than the Astros do. The saving grace for Cleveland is that they score about a half run more per game at home than on the road. They will face Framber Valdez Thursday. Valdez has allowed a HR in three straight starts. The Indians have gone Over in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter. The last five Houston series openers have gone Over as well. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5 AAA |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on OAK Texas upset Oakland 5-4 last night. That didn’t sit well with us as we played the A’s. The home team scored first (in the bottom of the first), then immediately retook the lead in the bottom of the fourth after allowing the Rangers to tie the game up in the top half of that inning. But from there, Texas took control. The visitors scored one run in the 5th, one in the 6th and two more in the 9th. Oakland tried to rally with two of their own in the bottom of the 9th, but came up one short. It was the Rangers’ first win all year following an off-day (previously 0-10) and the A’s first loss (previously 10-0) in that very situation. The A’s - despite being just 3-7 in their L10 games - remain monster favorites on the money line Wednesday and we can’t help but think they will bounce back. The pitching matchup for tonight is a rematch of a game played last Thursday with Allard going for Texas and Bassitt going for the A’s. Bassitt won the first go-around by allowing just one run in seven innings. Allard allowed four in six innings. Bassitt is currently riding a career-best eight game win streak as he has not dropped a decision since early April. Don’t overthink this one too much. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MTL +1.5 Even though they lost Game 1 5-1, Montreal cannot be counted out. For starters, the loser of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals has come back to win the series each of the past three seasons. The Habs know a thing or two about bouncing back from a loss this postseason as well. They lost Game 1 of the semis to Vegas in pretty ugly fashion (lost 4-1), only to storm back and win four of the next five games. Not since losing three in a row to the Maple Leafs back in Round 1 have the Habs suffered consecutive defeats in the playoffs. They are 11-3 since falling behind the Leafs three games to one and the two previous times they’ve had to respond from a loss, they’ve done so on the road, which is the case here. We’ll grab the puck line as an acknowledgement that the Lightning could very well win again, but not by more than one goal. Tampa’s top line greatly outplayed Montreal’s in Game 1. The first three goals that the Canadiens allowed in Game 1 were all off turnovers. So that’s something that can be fixed. Remember it was a 2-1 game heading into the third period. You have to figure Montreal is going to get more shots on goal tonight than the 19 they had in Game 1. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-30-21 | Angels v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Yankees finally got a win on Tuesday and in doing so they scored 11 runs. That’s more than they scored during the entirety of their four-game losing streak, which was snapped yesterday. So don’t go expecting another game like that from the home team. Last night was the Yankees season high in runs scored for a single game. They’ll be facing the dynamic Shohei Ohtani tonight. After hitting three homers in the last two games, Ohtani now returns to the mound where he’s produced a 2.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts this year. His last start marked the sixth time he’s allowed one run or less. The fact that he’s pitching tonight probably will have an effect on his hitting, so don’t go expecting him to add to his MLB-leading 27 home run total. It’s amazing though that he’s every bit as good a pitcher as he is a hitter. The Yankees’ Domingo German is only focused on pitching right now as he looks to turn around a rough June. This may be the right opponent as German has a 0.82 ERA in three previous appearances vs. the Angels. Road teams have hit just .213 at Yankees Stadium this year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-29-21 | Rangers v. A's -176 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -176 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The trends are absolutely incredible when these two teams take the field after a day off. Texas is 0-10 this year after a day off. Oakland is 10-0! Neither played Monday, so guess who we’ll be going with? While it’s only June, it’s hard to think the Rangers haven’t already thrown the towel in on 2021. In last place in the AL West, an eight-game gap exists between them and the next closest team. They aren’t going to make that up. While the Rangers did manage to split four games with the A’s last week, that was in Arlington. Things have been rough on the road this year for the Rangers as they have gone 10-27. Mike Foltynewicz will start Tuesday’s game and he’s not having a great season. The team is just 5-10 with him on the mound and his numbers on the road are very bad (7.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). He did win his last start, against the A’s, last week. But he’d been shelled in the three previous starts. James Kaprielian will start opposite Foltynewicz for the second time in a row. Kaprielian had a near identical statline to Foltynewicz in the game last Wednesday. He allowed two runs and five hits (one fewer than Foltynewicz) in six innings. Key though is Kapriellian has been much more consistent in 2021. He hasn’t allowed a run in either start here at home, going 13 innings. The A’s are 17-5 as a home favorite of -175 or more. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The last game featured good shooting from both teams and still they combined for only 215 points. The big story for Game 4 is going to the questionable status of Atlanta’s Trae Young, who is nursing a bone bruise in his foot. Though he went for 35 in Game 3, you can’t reasonably expect that kind of production again, if he even plays at all. Young’s absence would be extremely detrimental for the Hawks as he has been carrying them offensively. He sprained his ankle at the end of the third quarter in Game 3. The Hawks would then go on to score only 17 points in the fourth. For the entire playoffs, the Hawks are only averaging 105.6 points/game. Over the last five games, that average is down to 102.2. The offensive efficiency rating plummets when Young is off the floor. Milwaukee has shot well the last two games, but doing so three straight times might be a bit tricky, especially with this game being on the road. The one positive bit of info for Atlanta if Young can’t go is that their defensive efficiency goes way up with him off the floor. A hobbled/absent Young means we can count on low-scoring from Atlanta while Milwaukee isn’t likely to get 38 from Middleton again. The Bucks are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Unlike their previous two series, the Clippers were unable to even things back up after four games. Having fallen into an 0-2 hole in every series thus far, the magic may have “left the hat” after a Game 4 loss to Phoenix. Though they ended up losing by only four, the Clippers trailed the entire game and were down by as many as 16 at one point. It was an ugly game, which ended up an 84-80 final and that was fine by us as we had the Under. That’s how we’re going to play Game 5 as well. The shooting will improve, but not by enough to approach this O/U line. The Suns didn’t score 100 points in either game at Staples Center. They probably will tonight, but the thing is they are only allowing 100.8 points/game in the playoffs. The Clippers have not scored more than 106 in any of the last three games. The amount of scoring has decreased in every game and while we’re not likely to see a repeat of Game 4 (164 points), something along the lines of Game 3 (198) and Game 2 (207) is pretty likely. Still no Kawhi Leonard for LA, remember. Phoenix has missed 58 of its last 78 threes. The Clippers are 13-6-1 Under off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER These teams played a three-game series in Baltimore and it went just like you thought it would. Houston won all three games. They scored 10 and 13 runs in two of the wins. Now having won 12 of their last 14, the Astros are massive favorites at home Monday. This despite losing two of their last three games (to Detroit!) all in low scoring fashion. Baltimore has lost 22 of its last 23 road games though, so Houston deserves this level of favoritism. We don’t want to bet any team in this price range though. But because they scored 93 runs in a 10-game win streak (ended Saturday), we’ve got no issues taking the Astros to go Over the total tonight. Baltimore has given up 10 or more runs in half of its previous 10 games. They lost 12-4 yesterday. Today’s starter Eshelman gave up six runs when he faced the Astros last week and that was in only four innings. The Over is 12-4 in Zack Greinke starts this season for Houston. Part of the reason for that is a 5.24 home ERA. The Astros are also the highest scoring team in baseball. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We’ve got an unusual matchup in the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s “unusual” for a number of reasons. For one, it’s a matchup that would be impossible in every other season because these are two Eastern Conference teams. The Habs and Lightning have actually been in the same division since the last realignment. But for this unique season, which had travel restrictions, they have not met at all. Montreal being here is a shocker as no one expected the lone playoff team with a negative regular season goal differential to make it this far. It’s not a surprise that Tampa Bay, the defending Stanley Cup Champs, is still playing though. We like Game 1 to go Under. None of Montreal’s past seven games have had more than five combined goals scored. Tampa Bay has turned in two straight shutouts at home. They’ve also scored two or fewer goals in four of the past five contests. The Canadiens haven’t fared well in the past vs. the Lightning, especially in Tampa. The Under is 5-1 in the last six overall meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-28-21 | Spain -160 v. Croatia | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -160 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SPAIN After opening Euro 2020 with just one goal in two disappointing draws, Spain exploded in the final match of the group stage and crushed Slovakia 5-0. That victory guaranteed La Roja’s place in the knockout stage and they’ll be matched up with Croatia, the second place team from Group D, in the Round of 16. Croatia’s path here saw them lose, draw and win. As was the case with Spain, they were not guaranteed to move on until winning their last match. In Croatia’s case, it was 3-1 against Scotland to conclude group play. They, like everyone else so far in this tournament, could not score on England. Then came a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic. This is an older side, one that very few think can make a deep run in the knockout stage. Spain is of course one of the favorites. The win against Scotland was Croatia’s first in their last five competitive matches. Spain has not lost in their last six. Ivan Perisic, one of the goal scorers against Scotland, will be unable to go here for Croatia as he tested positive for COVID-19. Play on SPAIN AAA |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Hawks are really struggling with their three point shooting. They’re barely above 25% in the last three games and have never been above 35% in any of the last seven. They finished with just 91 points in a pitiful Game 2 loss and while the series is heading back to Atlanta, we don’t necessarily think the Hawks will score a ton in Game 3. Looking at their entire playoff run, they’ve been above 110 points just four times. Milwaukee’s defense has been very strong. The number of points per game allowed by them in the playoffs is 102.5. The Hawks are 18-9 Under their last 27 games vs. winning teams and most of that has been the playoffs. Don’t forget how Kris Middleton of the Bucks sees his offensive production drop in road games. Jrue Holiday should also cool off after a hot first two games. The team scored 77 in the first half of Game 2, a really high number that probably can’t be touched again. Expect them not to shoot 52% from the field again. This has the makings of another hard-fought, low-scoring playoff game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-27-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on LA DODGERS The Cubs and Dodgers finish their four game series tonight on ESPN. After being no-hit in the first game, the home team has come back to win each of the last two days, by scores of 6-2 and 3-2. It was a walk-off HR by Cody Bellinger that won the game last night. Before Bellinger’s walk-off, the Dodgers hadn’t scored since the first inning. They likely aren’t going to need to score many runs to win tonight either as Clayton Kershaw starts the finale. Kershaw is working on a streak of three straight quality starts. He’s allowed three runs or less 11 different times in 2021. The shortest start of his career came May 4th at Wrigley Field, so Kershaw is out for revenge tonight. Pitching at home, look for him to turn the tables on a Cubs lineup that is batting only .218 away from home. Kershaw has 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Alzolay has a 5.68 ERA his past three starts for the Cubs, who are just 2-8 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Dodgers are the highest scoring team in the National League and the only teams in all of baseball with a better run differential are the Astros and Giants. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -147 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES The Yankees have lost five in a row to the Red Sox, including two times in this series. Previous to that, they were on a 23-6 against them. But today looks like the ideal time to turn things back around as Gerrit Cole will be starting. Cole, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts, has a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Pitching for a team like the Yankees, you’d think he’d have a better team start record than 8-7. But Cole does also have the most strikeouts (123) through 15 starts for any Yankees starter EVER. There’s just no comparison between him and Eduardo Rodriguez, today’s starter for Boston. Over his last eight starts, Rodriguez is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA. Opponents are hitting .325 off him. Somehow, the Red Sox offense continues to bail him out as the team has won his last four starts. But because Cole is the opposition here, don’t look for the Boston bats to bail Rodriguez out again. He’s given up at least four runs in seven of those past eight starts. We have a hard time believing that Boston would sweep the Yankees twice in the same month. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After losing two close ones in Phoenix, the Clippers finally broke through in this series with a 106-92 win in Game 3. Other than the second quarter, the Clippers were largely in control throughout the last game. We are in control of this series with a 3-0 record. We took the Suns in Game 1, the Clippers in Game 2 (they covered the spread) and then the Clippers were our 10* Game of the Month in Game 3. We are laying off the side in Game 4 and will instead play the total. The last two games have gone Under. The Suns had only 92 points on 38,9 percent shooting in their loss Thursday. No one on their team scored more than 18 points and Booker/Paul combined to shoot 10 of 40 overall (3 of 14 on 3PA). You have to figure they are going to improve. But the oddsmakers have that built into the number. The Suns are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. So the Clippers aren’t going to score a whole lot either here. Still no Kawhi Leonard. Phoenix may not have Cameron Payne, who has been so key as Chris Paul’s backup. He was injured very early in Game 3 (ankle) and did not return. “We missed him a lot” said Devin Booker. Marcus Morris is also listed as a game-time decision for the Clippers. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-26-21 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rays beat the Angels last night by a score of 4-3. That makes the Rays 5-0 in the season series as they swept a four-game set back in May. The Angels have lost four in a row overall, scoring just nine runs in the process. They scored exactly three in losses to the Rays, Giants and Tigers plus they were also blanked by the Giants on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has won three straight, including a game on Thursday where they did not get a hit until the eighth inning. But you can look for the hitters - on both teams - to wake up on Saturday. Alex Cobb is pitching today for the visitors. He’s got a 6.64 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. He’d allowed five runs in back to back starts before shutting Detroit down in his last one. The Angels scored 11 runs in Cobb’s last start, so the Over is 3-0 the past three times he’s taken the mound. For the Rays, it’s Shane McClanahan. This will be his fifth start in June and he’s still without a win. McClanahan has actually pitched fairly well despite the lack of wins, but he has a higher WHIP than you like to see and a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Over has hit five straight times when the Angels are in the second game of a series. The Over is also 14-4 their last 18 games overall. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-26-21 | Denmark -114 v. Wales | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENMARK There is a potential for an all-time great story here with Denmark. We all know the terrible situation that occurred in their opening match with Christian Eriksen. On top of that, losing their first two matches seemed to doom any chance Denmark had of getting past the group stage. But they defied the odds, thanks to a dominant 4-1 win over Russia and some other things going their way. The stage is now set for a run in the knockout stage. We like them in the Round of 16 against Wales. It’s the second straight Euro Cup where Wales is in the Round of 16. They made it all the way to the semifinals in 2016. But being here feels a bit lucky this time. It was basically a win over Turkey. They did draw with Switzerland, 1-1, but that was a fortunate result. Italy only beating them 1-0 was not indicative of how that match was played (Italy was much better). Denmark’s loss to Finland was the most excusable upset in recent memory, then they blew a lead to Belgium after scoring first. But then came the completely dominant effort over Russia. Wales won’t have any fans present in Amsterdam because of travel restrictions. So this will be like a home fixture for Denmark. They have won the last three competitive matches vs. Wales. Play on DENMARK AAA |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Cubs shocked us last night, not only beating the Dodgers but no-hitting them! The 4-0 win was certainly not what we had envisioned when playing the Dodgers on the run line. Los Angeles is now 0-4 vs. Chicago this year and yesterday was their fourth straight loss overall. Earlier this week, they were swept in San Diego. There’s a real sense of “underachieving” hovering around the team right now, but we are doubling down tonight and saying the Dodgers put an end to this madness with an emphatic win Friday. The Cubs are 2-7 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. They are 8-16 in that role the last three seasons. The Dodgers had been shut out only one other time this year (before last night) and in that case they came back to win 3-0 the next day. They are 6-1 since 2019 after being shutout. They are 3-0 in Gonsolin starts in 2021 (that’s who is starting today). Jake Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.25 ERA his last five starts for Chicago. The Dodgers, despite the recent woes, should still be considered one of MLB’s elite teams. They are not going to lose every game to the Cubs this year. We don’t need to lay the -1.5 today and a Dodgers win here seems quite likely. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY We’ll lead with the trend that you all know is coming. Over the last two postseasons, Tampa Bay is a perfect 12-0 SU off a loss. We have taken them each of the first two times they’ve been off a loss in this series. The last one resulted in the infamous 8-0 thrashing of the Islanders back in Game 5 here in Tampa. There have been only five losses the entire postseason for the Lightning. They’ve averaged an incredible 5.6 goals/game when off a loss, scoring a total of 28 times. Three of those times they scored six or more goals. They’ve never scored fewer than four. So that’s a “tall hill” to climb for an Islanders team that has scored only 11 goals this entire series. The Lightning have scored 19 goals. Game 7 being in Tampa Bay is obviously big for the Lightning. Not just because of their own 26-10 SU home record. But also due to the fact the Islanders have a losing road record this season. Tampa Bay averages 3.7 goals/game at home. The Islanders average just 2.2 goals/game on the road. The last 80 times that the Lightning have scored two goals or less in a game (they lost Game 6, 3-2), they are 63-17 SU in the next game. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 AAA |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Those pesky Habs won’t go away and are now just a win away from the Stanley Cup Finals. They came in as massive underdogs in this semifinal series with Vegas, who tied for the most points in the league during the regular season (and had the best goal differential). The series started with Vegas easily taking Game 1 and most figured Montreal’s magical run was done for. Not so fast. They’ve won three of the last four games. What continues to impress us is not just the fact the Canadiens have won 10 of their last 12 games, but they’ve never trailed in 9 of those 10 wins. Now we also had Vegas as our Game of the Year in Game 4, which they won. They are not going quietly into the night. While no game in this series has had more than five goals scored, we are going to predict this one will. Six of the Golden Knights top seven goal scorers have failed to put the puck in the net (even one time) in this series. This was the third highest scoring team in the league in the regular season. Each team has had a game where they scored four times. So both are capable of big offensive nights. Montreal’s penalty killing, which is 28 for its last 28, is due to give one up. Note four of the five games in the series have seen EXACTLY five goals scored. We just need one more to get over the hump here and we’ll take our chances. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-24-21 | Indians v. Twins -179 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA It says a lot that Minnesota would be favored like this. The Twins have drastically underachieved in 2021 as they are 31-42 and in last place in the Central. But coming into the season, it was projected that they’d be battling with the White Sox for division supremacy, They did win the division each of the last two years. So looking at this line, it seems as if the oddsmakers still believe a turnaround is possible. We agree. Cleveland, who is 10 games up on the Twins right now, has seen its starting rotation decimated by injuries. That’s why you have Jean Carlos Mejia starting tonight’s game. Making four starts so far, Mejia has been bad. He gave up six runs to Pittsburgh in a game where there was no DH. He has an 11.17 ERA the last three starts. Minnesota had shown signs of turning things around recently as they’d won five in a row before losing 10-7 to the Reds on Tuesday. They’ve scored seven runs in four of their last six games. So it should be a solid night at the plate vs. Mejia. One spot where the Twins always seem to do well is when Jose Berrios is pitching. They’ve won his last seven starts. Berrios looks to extend that win streak here against a team he’s pitched pretty well against in the past. The Indians are 0-6 the L6 meetings in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two teams that won Game 7’s on the road will meet in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. There’s a little bit of irony in Milwaukee making the Conference Finals in a year they weren’t “supposed to.” The last two years, they had the best record in the league. But all that got them was a loss in the Conference Finals and then a loss in the Conference Semifinals. Atlanta is in its first ECF since 2015 (were swept by Cleveland) and only the second since the 1960s! It’s been almost a half century since either franchise was in a NBA Finals, so there will be new blood coming out of the East either way. We like Game 1 to go Under. That’s the way most of the Bucks games in the last round (vs. Brooklyn) went. Same with Atlanta against Philadelphia. The last four Hawks-Sixers games all stayed Under. We had the Under in both Games 6 and 7. Atlanta playoff games have averaged just 211.2 points/game with the Under being 8-4. Milwaukee playoff games have averaged just 210.2 points/games with the Under being 7-3. So this number looks way too high. In the three home games against Brooklyn, the Bucks allowed 83, 96 and 89 points. Atlanta scored 103 or less in four of its last six games, never topping 111. The most points Milwaukee scored in regulation vs. Brooklyn was 109. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 7* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 Tampa Bay leads this series 3-2 after humiliating the Islanders 8-0 in Game 5. That was the most lopsided NHL Playoff game in 20 years. It was the biggest margin of victory in playoff history for the Lightning and the worst margin of defeat in Islanders’ playoff history (and they’ve been around for awhile). We’re proud to say we took the Lightning in that 8-0 win. The world now figures to follow suit for Game 6. But we’re “jumping ship” as the Isles look to not only keep their season alive in what could be the final game ever played at Nassau Coliseum. Even if they win here, there’s no guarantee the Isles will play another game here as they’d also have to win Game 7 in Tampa Bay. Coach Barry Trotz guaranteed a much better effort on Long Island. "You'll get our best," Trotz said. "Whatever we've got left, you're going to get our best [Wednesday]." With the season and their building on the line, we don’t see the home team “rolling over” tonight. If they do lose, it won’t be by more than one goal. This team has won 37 of its previous 55 home games (26-10 this year). They have yet to lose two in a row by more than a goal in this postseason. Game 5 was not an accurate picture of this team. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA |
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06-23-21 | Brewers -175 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee actually dropped the series opener to Arizona, but then wasted little in bouncing back with a 5-0 win last night. Yesterday’s loss means the Diamondbacks are 3-32 in their L35 games. They’ve lost 41 of 47. They’d lost a franchise record 17 in a row coming into the series and there is seemingly no light at the end of the tunnel here. Ketel Marte, who is hitting .366, left in the first inning last night with an injury, Arizona ended up with just two hits in the game. Adding insult to injury, there was an embarrassing play in the field Tuesday where a Brewers runner that pulled up lame rounding third was still able to score. Believe it or not, it gets words. Caleb Smith, who is this afternoon’s starting pitcher, is 0-4 in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers. Despite being off a rare poor outing (was in Colorado), Woodruff has 1.94 ERA and 0.76 WHIP this season. Both numbers are among the best for qualified starters. The Brewers are 10-4 in Woodruff starts. How could you NOT take them here? This game may not be the focal point of the Milwaukee media on Wednesday, but the town’s sports fans will have something to cheer about before the Bucks game even tips off. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We are coming off a couple huge wins in the NHL. It was 8-0 last night with Tampa Bay. The night before last we won our 10* Game of the Year with Vegas. For the Golden Knights, that overtime victory evened this series up at two games each. The big story was the decision to start Robin Lehner in goal. After a disastrous start in Game 1 of the Colorado series, Lehner stopped 27 of 28 shots in Game 4 vs. Montreal. We don’t know for sure who will be starting Game 5 for Vegas - Lehner or Fleury - but either way we know we’ve got a solid goaltender between the pipes. This is not a game where we see more than five total goals getting scored. The Under is 3-0-2 in Montreal’s last five, so there has not been more than five total goals scored in any game of this series, obviously. Game 4 was the lowest scoring one yet with just three goals, including OT. Both teams are giving up just 2.3 goals per game in the postseason. We don’t see the winning side having to score more than two goals to take tonight’s game. The Habs’ Carey Price has a .931 save percentage in these playoffs. The Under is 23-6-7 in Montreal’s last 36 games as a playoff underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-22-21 | A's -145 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland lost Monday, 8-3 to the Rangers. Because of that they’re now a game back (of Houston) in the AL West. We expect them to bounce back Tuesday. The last three times Cole Irvin has started a game for the A’s, they’ve been victorious. He’s on the hill tonight. Irvin didn’t have his best stuff in his last start when he gave up four runs. But the two before that were both quality outings. Texas was originally set to go with Jordan Lyles, but now it’s Taylor Hearn, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Hearn has never started a game before at the big league level. The Rangers are the last place team in the division and with a 10-game gap to make up, that’s where they will likely stay for the remainder of 2021. They’d lost six games in a row going into Monday. Oakland has now lost three in a row for just the the third time since starting the year 0-6. Each of the previous two times, they’ve responded by winning. In fact, we took them the last time they were in the situation and it was a 12-6 win against Seattle. The A’s are 8-1 this year as road favorites of -125 to -175. They are in that range today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-22-21 | Astros -190 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON They were such an easy winner yesterday, why not go with the Astros again today? We can’t believe they’re not north of -200 on the money line. As previously discussed, the two teams here are going in very opposite directions. Coming off last night’s win and an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won eight in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by a game over the Athletics, and have the best run differential in the sport right now (+120). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-24 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Pitching today for the Astros will be Greinke. Since we were willing to take Jake Odorizzi yesterday, taking Greinke is a no-brainer. He has an 11-4 TSR. On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Jorge Lopez goes for Baltimore. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three starts. Can you say “mismatch?” Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-22-21 | England -160 v. Czech Republic | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ENGLAND There has been much consternation surrounding The Three Lions following their failure to defeat Scotland last Friday. It was a goalless draw, leaving England level with their final opponent in the group stage (Czech Republic) at 4 points apiece. The good news is that Gareth Southgate’s side kept its fourth straight clean sheet and remains in solid position to advance to the Round of 16. But that’s not the end goal in Euro 2020 and our opinion is that England is going to be “out for blood” in this final match of the group stage. A win and a draw may not be enough to satisfy the English fans, but for Czech Republic, it’s a pleasant surprise. They were underdogs in each of the first two matches, a 2-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Croatia. With an expected goal difference of -0.5, the general consensus is that this team has been a bit “lucky.” Keep in mind that Czech Republic was 10-1 to win Group D coming into the Tournament and north of 100-1 to win the whole thing. So they very much remain a “longshot.” They lost the possession battle against Scotland and the lone goal vs. Croatia came on a penalty. With England having yet to concede a single goal, we look for them to emerge victorious here and win Group D. Play on ENGLAND AAA |
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06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -183 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ll lead with the key trend: Over the last two postseasons, the Lightning are 11-0 SU off a loss. We went with the trend in Game 2 and they won there for us. So we’ll do it again for Game 5, also on home ice. The reason the Lightning lost Game 4 is pretty obvious. They gave up three goals in the second period. That put them in a hole that was too big to climb out of. They almost did, scoring twice in the third period. The good news, besides the trend mentioned above, is that other than the second period of Game 5 the Lightning have allowed just five goals in this series. They are 19-5 when seeking to avenge a loss this season. Brayden Point has scored a goal in seven straight games. The Lightning are 62-17 SU the last 79 times they have been off a game where they scored two goals or less. With the series moving back to Tampa Bay, it’s also worth pointing out that the Lightning are 46-19 SU L65 home games. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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06-21-21 | Astros -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We’ve got two teams going in opposite directions here. Coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won seven in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by percentage points at least, with the best run differential in the sport right now (+112). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 10 of their last 11. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-23 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Jake Odorizzi isn’t our favorite pitcher on the Houston staff, but he’ll suffice tonight. Akin starts for Baltimore after giving up eight runs in his previous start. The Astros score 5.8 runs/game on the road. That’s the highest average in baseball. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights -172 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Montreal seems to have proved the doubters wrong once again. They now lead this Stanley Cup semi final two games to one after stunning Vegas in Game 3. That last win saw them get a gift goal near the end of regulation as Marc-Andre Fleury misplayed the puck badly. That tied the game up, then a little more than seven minutes into overtime Josh Anderson scored the game-winner. Since falling behind Toronto three games to one in the first round series, the Habs are 9-1, the only loss being Game 1 of this series. Vegas outshot them 45-27 in Game 3 and clearly should have won the game. They were just two minutes away from being up 2-1 in the series. The Golden Knights have proven themselves to be resilient this postseason, erasing early series deficits in both previous series. This is the third time they’ve dropped two straight in the playoffs. Each of the previous two times saw them come back to win the next time out. This time they’ll have to do it on the road. Considering this is probably the best team in the league, we have little hesitation in betting them in this spot. There has been only one time all season that Vegas dropped three straight games. Montreal is a team no one expected to still be playing, let alone leading this series. Vegas has outshot Montreal in all three games and scored one more goal. They’re simply better. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Expect a low-scoring Game 7 from the 76ers and Hawks Sunday night. Since making 20 three-pointers in Game 1, Atlanta’s long distance shooting has fallen off a cliff. They made just 10 of 31 three-point attempts in Game 6, a major reason they lost, and have averaged only 9.5 made threes per game since Game 1. As a team, they’ve shot 43.1 percent overall in those last five games and averaged 104.8 points/game. Other than Trae Young, the Hawks scored 65 points in Game 6. Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable for Sunday after leaving the last game with a knee injury. That would be a significant loss at the offensive end for Atlanta. The last three games have all stayed Under with 215 being the max amount of total points scored. These are not good free throw shooting teams. Philadelphia was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Offensively, they cannot continue making threes at a rate above 40%. Like most Game 7’s, this one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in a most shocking way as the Phillies beat them 13-6. Those 13 runs scored by the Phillies were nearly as many as the number they’d scored the previous five games combined (16), all of which were Unders. The Giants are typically one of the stingier teams in baseball as their pitching staff has allowed a batting average of just .218 for the year and .204 at home. Now Sammy Long, making his first career start, is a bit of a question mark for Sunday. But given the Phillies’ previous offensive woes, we believe Long will limit them. Phillies pitching has also been pretty good of late. In the seven games leading up to yesterday, they’d allowed an average of only 3.3 runs and a .196 batting average. Spencer Howard was scratched so that Zach Eflin can go Sunday. We like the move as Eflin is coming off two good starts in a row, both of which went Under. This game should be nothing like yesterday. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-20-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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06-20-21 | Marlins v. Cubs -143 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO Two straight humiliating defeats at home is definitely not what the Cubs expected from this series vs. the Marlins. They’ve been outscored 21-3 the past two days. Typically, when a home team gets roughed up, they bounce back the following day. That didn’t happen for the Cubs yesterday, but we think it will today. This is a good home team. They’re 24-12 at Wrigley Field in 2021 and 92-57 here since the beginning of 2019. Miami is just 15-25 on the road in 2021 and 60-93 since the beginning of ‘19. Considering that the Cubs are averaging a healthy 5.0 runs/game at the Friendly Confines, you’ve got to think the offense is due to turn things around after a quiet week at the plate. They’ll face Zach Thompson, who has just two big league starts under his belt. He was better in the second one, but still lasted just five innings. Alec Mills will also be making just his third start of 2021 for the Cubs, but he’s a veteran. Miami came into yesterday’s game hitting just .218 on the road this year. They are bound to cool off. The last two days are just not reflective of the two teams. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-20-21 | Turkey v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Turkey and Switzerland have disappointed thus far at Euro 2020 and thus both will be desperate for points in the finale of the Group stage on Sunday. There’s no guarantee that either will make the Round of 16, but one (not both) could. Turkey has a terrible goal differential of -5, worst in the entire draw. At -3, Switzerland needs a big win as well. So what we expect here is a wide-open match. Neither side can afford a draw, so it will stay wide open throughout. Turkey not having scored a single goal in two matches is a bit stunning. Oddsmakers had them pegged for 3.5 goals in this tournament, though the expectation of them advancing past the group stage was probably factored into that. Still, with the likes of striker Burak Yilmaz, it seems like a near impossibility that Turkey won’t notch AT LEAST one goal here. Switzerland, like Turkey, was blanked 3-0 by Italy. But they definitely feel they should have had one more goal against Wales (overturned by VAR). We see both sides scoring here and at least one scoring two goals. That makes Over the play here. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We played Game 3 Under and that turned out to be a correct call with the Lightning winning 2-1. The visitors now have a 2-1 series lead after dropping Game 1 at home, also by a score of 2-1. Game 2 was 4-2 (in favor of the Lightning), but we don’t expect to see many more games like that in this series. The Islanders have found the back of the net just five times against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay did an excellent job at blocking shots in the last game as 11 players combined to block 21 Islanders shot attempts. Game 3 also brought the fewest number of total shots (53) we’ve seen in any game in the series so far. While they’ve allowed more shots than usual this postseason, the Islanders allow only 28.1 per game at home. So the decrease in shots for the Lightning in Game 3 wasn’t the least bit surprising. The Islanders allow just 2.1 goals/game on home ice as well. Tampa Bay has allowed just five goals its last four games, going back to when they closed out Carolina. The Under is 7-0 the last seven times TB has been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-19-21 | Blue Jays -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Toronto ought to be a lot better than two games below .500 and fourth place in the American League East. They have scored 39 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. But they’ve been headed in the wrong direction this week by losing five in a row. Getting swept by the Yankees is one thing, but losing to Baltimore (which they did Friday) should be considered a real embarrassment. It wasn’t even close as the Jays went down 7-1 in the opener of this three-game series. The Orioles have lost 19 straight road games, but are 6-2 their last eight games at Camden Yards. While they may be better at home, the Orioles aren’t likely to win back to back games here as their starter for today has a 3-7 team start record and is really struggling. It’s Dean Kremer, whose last three starts have resulted in an 8.76 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Winless at Camden Yards so far (0-3), Kremer has an 8.41 ERA in his home park. Toronto starter Manoah has had no problems pitching on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 1.06 and 0.88. Baltimore is just 9-22 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been much chatter about how scoring is up in this edition of the Euro Cup, at least compared to 2016. Well, we just cashed an Under on Friday with Sweden-Slovakia where a penalty was the lone goal scored. Spain was Sweden’s first opponent in this draw and the result there was a scoreless draw. Luis Enrique’s side left the pitch feeling like they should have scored at least one goal in that one. But alas they ended up sharing the points. Poland was a 2-1 loser to Slovakia their first time out. But as detailed in the writeup for the previous day’s match, they were down to 10 men by the end of the match and Slovakia got the game winner only after Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. The only other goal conceded by Poland was a dreaded own goal. So don’t be fooled by the two goals allowed. There is a lot of hand-waving going on right now with Spain and the fact they failed to score a goal against Sweden. Our best guess is this one ends up 1-0 in favor of La Roja. Regardless of what the exact final outcome ends up being, expect the Under to hit. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -2 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH AAA |
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06-18-21 | Brewers -183 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee dropped a game in Colorado last night as they’ve now lost four in a row. This losing streak, which also saw them get swept at home by Cincinnati, has dropped them out of first place in the National League’s Central Division. They are a game back of the Cubs, who won yesterday. So it’s definitely time for the Brewers to right the ship and we couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have on the mound tonight than Corbin Burnes. With a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Burnes is having a sensational start to the season. The majority of his 11 starts have come at home, but the three on the road have seen him allow only two runs and seven hits. That’s in 18 innings where Burnes has 28 strikeouts vs. only one walk. The Brewers have come out ahead each of the past three times Burnes has started. Ironically, he didn’t have his best stuff last time. He’ll need to be better here as he’s pitching at Coors Field, but the Rockies also figure to give up their fair share of runs in this one. Colorado is on its third four-game win streak of the season. They’ve never been able to make it five. Senzatela is on the mound and he’s been the Rockies’ biggest money-loser in the starting rotation with a 3-10 team start record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Montreal again proved the doubters wrong by winning Game 2, 3-2. It was yet another game where the Habs never trailed. That’s been the case in eight of their last nine games, Game 1 vs. Vegas being the outlier. In Game 2, Montreal got off to a 3-0 lead and never looked back. It wasn’t until late in the third period that Vegas was able to get back with a goal. We think the Canadiens will, at the very worst, be able to stay within a goal of the Golden Knights in Game 3. The series is now in Montreal, making this the first time Vegas (or any U.S. team) has crossed the border into Canada in over a year. Attendance won’t be anywhere near full capacity, but it’s still an advantage to be at home. Montreal hasn’t lost on home ice since 5/25 and they’ve been beaten by more than one goal in only one home game during these playoffs. Vegas has just one win in its last four playoff road games, that being in Colorado where they rallied from an early 0-2 hole to win by one goal (3-2). Vegas has opened the scoring in just 5 of its 15 playoff games. When you start from behind, it’s tough to win by more than a goal. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER This series is now 3-2 Atlanta after Philadelphia has blown big leads in each of the last two games. In Game 4, they led by 13 at halftime but lost 103-100 as the Hawks ended up taking 16 more shots. Game 5 was an even worse scenario. The Sixers led by as much as 26, but could not close the deal and suffered another three-point defeat (109-106) putting them on the brink of elimination. We chose to play the 1st half Under in Game 5 and even with Philadelphia scoring 62 by halftime, that bet was still a winner. Not pertinent to our bet was Atlanta having the huge 40-point fourth quarter. We don’t see that kind of offensive production from either side in this game. The Sixers have shot better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line for four straight games. It’s difficult to imagine them doing that for a fifth straight game. They’ve actually shot 51.2% overall in the series. Again, it’s very likely that number will decrease. There were 45 made free throws in Game 5. That’s yet another number that is unlikely to be matched. Atlanta is now 24-7 Under when leading in a playoff series, going 3-1 in that spot this year. Philadelphia was one of the league’s most efficient defensive teams in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-18-21 | Slovakia v. Sweden UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The second round of Group E action begins with Sweden taking on Slovakia Friday. Both sides were able to take points from their initial group match. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to get the full three points while Sweden played favored Spain to a goalless draw. While that was just one point for the Swedes, it was arguably a more impressive showing than what Slovakia did against a Polish side that was down a man by the end of that match. Shortly after Grzegorz Krychowiak was shown a red card for Poland, Slovakia struck with the game winner in the 69th minute. Their only other goal was a gift from the other side as Poland’s goalkeeper committed the cardinal sin of an own goal. So multiple goals from Slovakia in this one certainly seems to be unlikely. Probably content with the win from the initial group match, they’d be happy with a draw here. Same for Sweden, who has Poland yet to come. A draw here and a win there would likely move them to the knockout stage. So don’t go expecting more than a single goal scored in St. Petersburg and there may not be any scored at all. Sweden has already played one goalless draw and this could very well be another. Both sides will be content to pack the midfield. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-17-21 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA -1.5 With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 118 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER As we predicted, the Lightning evened this series up at a game apiece. They won Game 2 on Tuesday, 4-2, as they never trailed and were up three goals for most of the third period. That kind of performance was to be expected following a sluggish outing in Game 1. Now the series heads to Uniondale where the Islanders are extremely tough to beat (25-9 home record this year). So we’re going to back off Tampa Bay for a moment and look at the total instead. The Isles’ scoring does jump at home, but they only allow 2.1 goals/game here and we don’t see them scoring more than three goals tonight. This season, New York is 9-3 Under following a loss by two or more goals. Tampa has seen seven of its last nine games go Under and has only gone Over in back to back games one time in the playoffs. That was back in the first round series vs. Florida. So coming off a game that went Over, we’ll call for less scoring in Game 3. The Islanders have just two even strength goals in the two games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We like the Mets to make it a four-game sweep over the Cubs tonight. Both of today’s starting pitchers - Kyle Hendricks for Chicago and Marcus Stroman for New York - enter this game with an 8-5 TSR. But Stroman has the lower ERA and WHIP, plus the benefit of pitching for the hotter team. Of course, right now there is a sense of “gloom” hanging over the Mets as they await the prognosis of Jacob deGrom, who left last night’s game (after three perfect innings) due to right shoulder soreness. But Stroman has also been a key piece of this rotation. While his 2.33 ERA is third best on his own team (behind deGrom and Taijuan Walker), it is ninth best in the whole National League. While it’s true that the Cubs have won six straight Hendricks’ starts, he has a 4.46 ERA, over two full points higher than Stroman. The Cubs have scored only seven runs in this series and were held to one hit until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game. The Mets have a 20-6 home record with the opponents averaging 2.1 runs/game! The Cubs are 14-20 on the road. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -134 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers will look to make it three in a row over the Phillies tonight and finish off the sweep. We really like their chances of doing so. We had them in last night’s 5-3 win in what was the first full capacity game (for fans) at Chavez Ravine this season. The Dodgers have won seven of eight overall. Though they are a game behind the Giants, there’s really no denying who the oddsmakers would favor if the two NL West rivals were matched up. Just like there’s no denying who should be the favorite in this inter-divisional matchup. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight for Los Angeles. Believe it or not, the Phillies are the lone NL team to have a winning all-time record vs. Kershaw (5-4). But we don’t think that record matters much tonight as Kershaw is off a strong outing against Texas, which the Dodgers ended up winning 12-1. Kershaw allowed one unearned run and three hits in six innings. While Wheeler has been pretty good for Philadelphia, he’s no Kershaw and the Phillies’ road record (11-21) is a problem for them. So is Wheeler’s 5.87 career ERA vs. LA. This is a mismatch that is not being priced properly. Don’t overthink this one. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After never trailing in seven consecutive playoff wins, Montreal fell behind quickly and never led in Game 1 of their Stanley Cup semifinal vs. Vegas. The Golden Knights got a 1st period goal from Shea Theodore and went on to win 4-1. You get the sense that the Habs are in over their heads in this series. The North Division was weak and now they are up against the best team in the NHL. The odds obviously reflect that. Vegas is once again a heavy favorite to win Game 2. We don’t want to lay that much juice, but we will play the Under again, just like we did in Game 1. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .927 save percentage in the playoffs. Since getting blitzed by Colorado in Game 1 of the last round, Fleury has allowed just 12 goals in six games. Montreal’s only real hope here is their goalie Carey Price stepping up. Price is certainly capable. He has a .929 save percentage in the playoffs. We do not see Vegas scoring another four goals in this one, which is the key. The Canadiens are 22-6-5 Under L33 games as a playoff underdog. That trend continues Wednesday as Game 2 should be even lower scoring than Game 1. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland continues to have its way with Baltimore as last night they handed the Orioles a 17th straight loss on the road. It was 7-2 on Tuesday after the Indians won the first game of the series 4-3. The MLB record for most consecutive road losses is 22, last matched in 1963. The Orioles have been incredibly sloppy at Progressive Field, committing six errors in the two games. When a bad team is sloppy in the field, they’ve got almost no chance of winning. Aaron Civale has a 10-3 team start record for Cleveland and will start Wednesday night. That TSR is very good. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have 11 team wins to their credit. Civale has been excellent in his last five starts as he’s 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and only four walks. He struck out a season-best 11 batters last week vs. Seattle while allowing just one hit in eight scoreless innings. Keegan Akin goes for Baltimore. He did throw five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland in the previous series between the teams, a game the Orioles won 3-1. But it’s just too hard to trust him or his team right now. The O’s haven’t just lost 17 in a row on the road, they are 0-6 the L6 overall. They are 21-44 in the third game of a series after losing the first two. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-15-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA The Dodgers look to make it two in a row over the Phillies on Tuesday. They won the first game of the series, 3-1. They got only three hits, but two of them were home runs and that was all that was needed to beat a team that’s now just 11-20 on the road. Philadelphia had some momentum coming into this series. They’d won six of seven. But they aren’t likely to fare well against this opponent, which should still be considered the best team in baseball, no matter what the record is. Urias has a 10-3 team start record and 0.97 WHIP for LA. Eflin has posted a career-best ERA for Philadelphia, but is still winless in his last five starts and he has a 9.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Expect more offense by the home team tonight. They are 19-9 in home games when they homer at least once. They are 50-16 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 the previous three seasons. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big surprise of this Eastern Conference semifinal is that all four games have stayed Under the total. Basically, ever since the first half of Game 1, scoring has come to a grinding halt between the Nets and Bucks. The four games haven’t just gone Under; they’ve all stayed Under by double digits. Game 1 stayed Under by 17.5 points, Game 2 stayed Under by 27 points, Game 3 stayed Under by a record-setting 66 points (!) and Game 4 stayed Under by 26 points. Brooklyn will also be without James Harden and Kyrie Irving for Game 5. So what we have is a somewhat unprecedented shift in the O/U line. We’re currently looking at more than a 20-point difference in where the number opened for Game 1 to what it is for Game 5. The value is now with the Over. Kevin Durant certainly can carry the scoring load for the Nets. He could easily go for 40+ tonight. Back at home, his teammates will shoot better than they have the previous two games. Milwaukee hasn’t shot the ball all that well either in this series and that can change in a heartbeat. We haven’t seen a total this low for either team in quite some time. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -193 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB After dropping Game 1 at home, you’ve gotta figure Tampa Bay is going to come out flying for Game 2. Certainly we’re not alone in this assessment given how the money line has moved. Totally justifiable though as the Lightning haven’t lost back to back games in the playoffs. They are 7-2 this season when seeking to avenge a home loss and 18-5 seeking to avenge a loss of any kind. Off a game where they scored one goal or less, they have an 8-2 record in 2020-21. So all signs point to TB evening this Stanley Cup semifinal up. The Islanders average just 2.2 goals/game on the road, so you’re not getting any more scoring from them than what we saw in Game 1. Shots were even on Sunday, but NY is still allowing 37.2 per game in the playoffs. That’s a high number. Tampa Bay is a really solid home team and we just can’t see them losing two in a row on home ice. Head Coach Cooper said of the GM1 loss, “Our minds weren’t there.” That’s not going to be the case here. Over the last two postseasons, the Lightning are 10-0 SU off a loss. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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06-15-21 | Portugal -165 v. Hungary | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 307 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTUGAL Reigning European Champions Portugal will open group play against Hungry. Group F is the so-called “Group of Death” in this edition of the Euro Cup as it also includes Germany and France. That makes this a critical three point opportunity for A Selecao. Portugal is no stranger to success in the Euro Cup, not only having won the whole thing in 2016, but also having reached at least the quarterfinals in five of the last six. They come into Tuesday riding a six-match unbeaten run. In two friendlies earlier this month, they drew Spain 0-0 and crushed Israel 4-0. It was another scoreless draw with Hungary back in Euro 2016, but this time we think Ronaldo and company will just be too much. Hungary has some key injuries with RB Leipzig striker Szoboszlai and Zsolt Kalmar both ruled out. In 13 all-time head to head encounters between these two sides, Hungary has never been victorious. Portugal is one of the favorites to win this entire event and ahead of fixtures with Germany and France, they will be very hungry to start with a win. PLAY ON PORTUGAL AAA |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Vegas is a huge favorite to win Game 1 of this Stanley Cup semifinals, but after watching the Islanders pull an upset yesterday we’re in no rush to lay such a massive price with the Golden Knights. Plus, Montreal is clearly a team with momentum right now. They’re on a seven-game win streak where at no point have they trailed. The Canadiens have allowed just 2.18 goals per game in this improbable playoff run as goalie Carey Price has looked like his old self with a .935 save percentage and 1.97 goals against average. Only three power play goals have been allowed by the Habs in the playoffs on 31 chances. This will be their toughest test to date, however. Vegas is much better than anyone from the all-Canadian North Division. The Golden Knights just held Colorado to eight goals in the last four games. The Over might be 5-0 in the last five meetings, but these teams haven’t faced off since pre-pandemic. The Under is 22-6-4 in Montreal’s past 32 games as a playoff underdog. Vegas scored six goals in the close out game vs. the Avs, but is on a 5-1 Under run coming off a 5+ goal game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This should make for an excellent three-game series. We’ve got the first place team in the East and the first place team in the Central. For Monday’s opener, it should be an excellent pitching matchup as Glasnow opposes Lynn. Glasnow checks in with a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s been even better of late though with a 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP the last three starts. He has 30 strikeouts in 22 innings and allowed only four runs. That said, Lance Lynn has perhaps been even more dominant. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in every start but one this season. He’s yet to allow more than three. Over his last seven starts, Lynn has given up a total of five earned runs. In the past eight games for both teams, the respective staffs have held the opposition to below a .210 batting average. Five of the last seven games have seen the White Sox give up two runs or less. Tampa has the best bullpen ERA and is 1.59 the past 17 games. Given all of the above, how do you not take the Under here? Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222 | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Phoenix Suns had not made the playoffs in over a decade entering 2020-21. But they had no problem ending the league’s second longest postseason drought, going 51-21 and finishing behind only the Jazz in the Western Conference standings. One more win and they’re in the Conference Finals (against either Utah or the Clippers), which is how far they made it in their last postseason run with Steve Nash back in 2010. We know we can count on the Suns to score tonight. They’ve reached 113 points in five straight games and average 114.6 points/game for the year. It’s Denver that’s been a problem for Over bettors the last two games. They’ve averaged just 100 points/game. That’s well below their season average. They average 117.5 per game at home. It was a 41.1 FG% in Game 3 as Nikola Jokic’s teammates didn’t step up to support him on the night he was awarded the league’s MVP award. While the Under is 2-0 in the previous two games, it’s been close both times. Denver’s role players are likely to step up tonight as the season is on the line. That’s how this one goes Over. The Nuggets are 10-5 Over after a loss by 10 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -188 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -188 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TAMPA BAY Just like last year, Tampa Bay will face the Islanders for the right to move on to the Stanley Cup Finals. Last year’s Eastern Conference Final was won by the Lightning in six games as they went on to win the whole thing. That series was played in a bubble. This time TB has the home ice edge, a nice deal for them as they were 21-7 at home in the regular season. While they’ve got a better record on the road than at home in the postseason, don’t think for a second the Lightning didn’t want home ice advantage in this series. The Islanders have a much better record at home than on the road. New York has also fallen behind two games to one in both series thus far. Tampa Bay jumped out to 2-0 series leads against Florida and Carolina. Both teams are averaging just over 3.5 goals/game in the playoffs. But the Islanders average only 2.2 goals per game on the road for the season. They’ve also allowed 37.7 shots/game in these playoffs. Unlike last year’s Conference Finals, Steven Stamkos is healthy for the Lightning. He has 13 points in 11 playoff games. Vasilevskiy (.934 postseason save percentage) is the best goalie in this series. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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06-13-21 | Astros -131 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Astros and Twins have split the first two games of this series. We like the road team, behind Framber Valdez, to take the rubber match and series. This will be Valdez’s fourth start in 2021. So far he has faced Boston twice and San Diego. He has not allowed more than one run in any of the starts and has gone progressively deeper into games. He went 7 ⅓ last week at Fenway, struck out eight and walked no one. If Valdez can contain two of the highest scoring teams in baseball, surely he can do the same to a Twins team whose season has generally been pretty miserable. Minnesota has won back to back games only one time in June. That was against Kansas City. Since the first series of the year, there’s been only one other time besides KC where the Twins beat the same team on consecutive days. That was a three-game sweep of Baltimore. Pineda has lasted a total of 7 ⅓ innings his last two starts for the Twins. Houston has yet to lose twice in a row this month. Won’t happen here. This is a very attractive price on the better side. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Colorado continues to be an absolute horror show on the road. They are 5-26 away from Coors Field. Yesterday was even worse than usual, which is really saying something, as they lost 10-3 to the Reds. The last three days have seen them outscored 32-12 including 21-8 in the two games in Cincinnati. The Rockies have now hooked up with the Reds six times in 2021 and at least 11 runs have been scored in every game. Four of those were in Coors, but the two here in the Queen City have seen 16 and 13 total runs scored. So you can’t just attribute the scoring to Denver. The Reds have horrible pitching; they’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams (Colorado being one of them). Tony Santillan is being called into duty for his first career big league start on Sunday. While it may seem tough to make a projection on him for this game, we know the Over is 21-8-1 for the Reds after a game where they scored five or more runs. They got to 10 yesterday without even hitting a single home run. It was their 10th game this season scoring 10 or more runs. The Reds give up more than six runs per game at home. Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP on the road for Colorado. This will clearly be a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-12-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -159 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO For a while, it looked like it would be the Cubs and Cardinals competing for NL Central supremacy this year. But now it’s the Brewers that the Cubs are tied with atop the division. They look to take advantage of the slumping Cards again on Saturday with Kyle Hendricks starting the game. St. Louis has just one win in its previous eight games. It was 8-5 Cubs on Friday afternoon as Pederson, Rizzo and Contreras all homered. It was the Cubs third straight win after taking two in San Diego. This is the first series where a full house is allowed at Wrigley Field. "It just felt really energetic," manager David Ross said about yesterday’s game. "The outfield was packed, beautiful day. That was a nice W. ... Clearly, those fans helped us win that game." Hendricks looks to help make it two in a row over the Cardinals and four in a row overall. The last time Hendricks started against St. Louis was 5/21 at Busch Stadium and the Cubs wound up winning 12-3. Hendricks is 5-0 his last five starts, all of them quality. Gant goes for St. Louis and he allowed seven runs his last start. With Gant, the ERA is very misleading as his WHIP is 1.592. Two teams going in opposite directions. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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06-12-21 | Padres -124 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO With only three wins in the last 12 games, this is the coldest the Padres have been all season. In what is poised to be a very tough three-team battle in the NL West with the Dodgers and Giants, SD is currently in third place. But we’ll look for them to bounce back from last night’s 3-2 loss to the Mets behind the sensational Joe Musgove this afternoon. Musgrove deserves way better than a 6-5 team start record in 2021. He has a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. While Musgrove failed to beat the Mets one week ago, that was due to him having to go up against Jacob deGrom, who beat the Padres again last night. In last Saturday’s start, Musgrove had 10 strikeouts in five innings. He did give up three runs, but had allowed two or less in 8 of his first 10 starts this year. The Mets have been tough to beat at home this year (16-5 WL record) and Stroman has been sharp. But Stroman did have a season-high four walks in his last start, which was against San Diego. Look for San Diego to get the job done here behind Musgrove. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-12-21 | Russia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 238 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* On OVER If you don’t know, Belgium is the #1 ranked team in the world entering Euro 2020. In qualification for this tournament, they ended up with the maximum 30 points. They are unbeaten in their last nine matches and considered the favorite to win Group B. Not all the news is great though as playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is out due to facial fractures sustained in the Champions League Final. But we expect the Red Devils to still score multiple goals in this Euro Cup opener with Russia. This is typically a high-scoring side and they beat Russia twice - 4-1 and 3-1 - during qualification. Those are the only losses sustained by Russia during Euro Cup qualification, however, and we look for them to score a goal in this one. This match is in St. Petersburg and it’s been awhile since the Russians failed to score a goal in a match. There was a 2017 International Friendly between these two sides that ended up 3-3. Expect some fireworks. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-11-21 | Royals v. A's -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland should bounce back from a surprising 6-1 loss last night. Kansas City came into this series on a five game losing streak. They were swept down in Los Angeles to start the week. The number of runs that the Royals scored yesterday matched what they has scored in the previous four games combined. Very surprising to see the A’s with only three hits in yesterday’s game. They’d come in on a 7-1 run and had scored a minimum of four runs in every one of those eight games. Brady Singer looks like a good pitcher to target for a fade in this one. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last three starts. This Royals righty has never pitched in the Pacific Time Zone. The team has won only four of his 12 starts this year. Cole Irvin has the same team start record for Oakland, but a lower ERA and WHIP. Irvin also pitched very well in his last trip to the mound. The A’s were winning 1-0 in the seventh last night before a catcher interference call swung the game dramatically. Thursday’s final score was not indicative of the two teams. Oakland leads the West Division with a 37-27 record. KC is under .500. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Sixers seem to be firing on all cylinders offensively in these playoffs. They are averaging more than 123 points/game and have shot almost 54 percent from the field in the first two games vs. Atlanta. Joel Embiid is averaging 39.5 points/game for the series and is showing no real ill-effects from the cartilage issue that was thought to be a problem last week. Atlanta has no answers for stopping Embiid and they just took another hit at the defensive end with De’Andre Hunter having to undergo season-ending surgery. Hunter was arguably the team’s best individual defender. The good news for the Hawks is that the next two games are at home where they have won 13 straight times. Their season scoring average at home is 115.1 points/game. Trae Young missed six of his seven three-point tries in Game 2. You’ve got to think he’s going to bounce back with a big game tonight. Philadelphia has scored at least 114 points in every playoff game. This may not end up as high scoring as Game 1, but it will be higher scoring than Game 2 and that means OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-11-21 | White Sox -155 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We like the White Sox to roll their division rivals in Friday’s series opener. Chicago is having an excellent season thus far. They are first in the Central with a 38-24 record. They’ve allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. Coming off a winning series against Toronto, the White Sox now head to Detroit. They just took three of four games from the Tigers last week. We get a better price on them on the road, which is nice. The Tigers have been playing somewhat better of late, but are still only 26-36. They’ve scored the least amount of runs in the AL. So their lineup vs. White Sox pitching is quite the mismatch. Lucas Giolito is who the Tigers will face tonight. They did hit three homers off him last weekend when they picked up their only win of the series. But Giolito has previously allowed exactly one earned run in five of six starts in May. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 9 of 12 starts overall. Skubal has a 3-7 TSR for Detroit and only one quality start. Don’t overthink this one. Take the much better team. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-11-21 | Italy -158 v. Turkey | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 214 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ITALY Italy comes in as the favorite to take Group A and for good reason. They have the home advantage with these matches being played in Rome. They are one of the favorites to win this entire tournament as they are undefeated in their previous 27 matches. It’s an eight-match win streak for the Azzurri which has seen them recently take a couple friendlies against San Marino and the Czech Republic. Under current boss Roberto Manicini, they’ve scored 70 goals and conceded only 14. World Cup qualification is going well with three wins in as many fixtures and they have not lost a WC qualifier on home soil in the last 56 tries. So the home advantage should be a big deal in the group stage of the Euro Cup. Turkey is an improving side and should finish second in Group A, but they are outclassed in this one. Italy believes this is the squad to end its 50-year drought as European champions. Anything less than a win the first time out would be viewed as a major disappointment. Play on ITALY AAA |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -218 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on COLORADO +1.5 Through the first six games of these playoffs, Colorado looked totally invincible. They were 6-0 with a +20 goal differential (30-10) and widely considered the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. Then the next three games happened. Vegas has beaten them three straight times, including a come from behind effort in Game 5 that went to overtime. Now the Avalanche aren’t the favorites to win the Cup; they are just trying to stay alive. Even though taking the puck line requires laying a lot of juice, we believe it’s worth it. This is only the second three-game losing streak for the Avs in 2020-21. There has never been a four-game losing streak. While we’re not confident enough to “pull the trigger” on the money line, we just don’t see any way that Colorado loses here by more than one goal. Two of the three losses in this series have been by one goal. They beat Vegas 7-1 in Game 1! They very much COULD win. But we just like the idea of them only having to stay tied at the end of regulation. Play on COLORADO +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Despite Brooklyn shooting a blistering percentage from the field, the Under is 2-0 in their series with Milwaukee. Credit the blowout nature of the two games for some of that. Game 1 was on pace to go Over through three quarters. But then the fourth happened and only 40 total points were scored. We were still fine with how things played out; we had the Nets and the win was a lot easier than the 115-107 final score would seem to indicate. Game 2 was never close as Brooklyn led by 19 after one quarter, 26 at halftime and won by 39. Milwaukee never scored more than 24 in any quarter and ended up with a season-low 86 points for the game. It was only the fifth time in 2020-21 that they were held below 100. The other four all saw them score at least 96 points. After they went 14 for 57 on three point shots in the first two games, look for that facet of the game to improve by a lot now that the series heads to Brew City. This is a team that shoots almost 49% overall and 40% from three at home. Their season scoring average at the Fiserv Forum is 120.8 points/game. Brooklyn, even without James Harden, is going to keep shooting the ball well. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-10-21 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Have to play against Castillo here. The Reds have lost 10 of his 12 starts so far with one of the wins coming last week in St. Louis. That surprisingly strong outing against a slumping Cardinals team should be viewed as the exception rather than the rule, however. Castillo’s ERA (6.63) and WHIP (1.663) both remain very high. He was 0-6 in May. One of those losses was vs. Milwaukee. The Brewers scored five times off Castillo in five innings and went on to take the game 9-4. Freddy Peralta started that game for Milwaukee and will start this one as well. Peralta is having a very different type of season compared to Castillo. The team has won 9 of his 12 starts including four in a row. The last one saw Peralta take a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Opponents are hitting just .133 against Peralta for the year. This is a rubber match with each team having won once in the series. Considering who is on the mound for each team, look for the Brewers to take the series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Game 1 went Over, which is par for the course for these teams as that’s the way the last three meetings have gone as well as six of the last seven here in Phoenix. But we believe Game 2 will go a bit differently. Phoenix shot really well in Game 1, making 54.1 percent of their attempts. Denver wasn’t too far behind at 46.7%. It’ll be difficult for both teams, particularly Phoenix, to match those percentages. As for Denver, they’ve gone Over in all their playoff games but one. But as they found out Monday, they are now playing the Suns and not the Blazers. Portland had the worst defensive efficiency rating of any playoff team. So it was only logical that MVP Jokic and his teammates had their way offensively with them. But in seven playoff games, the Suns are allowing less than 100 points/game. They are only scoring 106.6 per game themselves though. Can they really count on 23 points again from Mikal Bridges? Probably not. Four starters (Bridges, Ayton, Paul & Booker) combined to shoot 33 of 51 (64.7%). No way we see that again. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-09-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS The Dodgers and Pirates opened up a three-game series on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the Dodgers won. They got all five of their runs in the fifth and sixth innings while the Pirates got all three of their runs in the eighth and ninth. The home team should have had one more, but Ke’Bryan Hayes made a baserunning blunder in the first inning when he forgot to touch first base after a home run. So he was called out. While it may not have been the prettiest win for the Dodgers on Tuesday, you can’t deny who the better team is in this particular matchup. We think it’s pretty crazy we can get to play the favorite at this price. Pittsburgh is 2-10 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Maybe the price is due to some uncertainty over Tony Gonsolin, who will be making his 2021 debut for the Dodgers in this one? But we have confidence in Gonsolin starting in this spot. He was 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 20 starts last year, his rookie season. The Pirates have the least amount of runs scored in baseball. Starting for them here is Tyler Anderson and he has an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-09-21 | Yankees -180 v. Twins | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees won yesterday 8-4. It’s been a rough season for Minnesota. They are last in the Central with a 24-36 record. The Yankees are 32-29, probably a disappointment to some, but they are 18-8 outside the AL East. They play in the deepest division in the American League as everyone but Baltimore is good. But they’ve really beat up on everyone else. The Yankees have played the most division games of anyone in the East. What we’re trying to say here is they are going to win again today. Gerritt Cole is starting. We can’t believe the team is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. Cole’s last start was one of his worst. Not to give him a “pass,” but it did come against Tampa Bay. In one-third of his starts, Cole has not allowed a run. In 10 of the 12, he’s allowed two or less runs. No confidence in Randy Dobnak starting opposite Cole for the Twins. Pay little attention to the ongoing “controversy” surrounding Cole and “illegal substances.” The Yankees are 27-11 all-time at Target Field. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-09-21 | Bruins -132 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON The Islanders, thanks to two straight high scoring performances, have taken the lead in this series and are one more win away from advancing to the NHL’s version of the “Final Four.” But what you need to understand about the Game 5 result in Boston is that the Bruins had a colossal 44-19 edge in shots. That they lost 5-4 is shocking. Losing while getting 25 or more shots on goal is something that has happened only four times to the Bruins in the playoffs since 1960. It was only the second time NY won a playoff game when getting outshot by that man. The Islanders also got three power play goals in the win. Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy was highly critical of the way the game was called, so that’s something to keep an eye on here in Game 6. Boston has scored first in four of the five games in the series, yet lost three of them. Tuukka Rask is expected to be fine for Game 6 and should play better between the pipes. The Islanders are a good home team, but we like Boston in this one. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 101 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 8* on LAC The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. But with just one day off, we think it’s going to be extremely difficult to match that against Utah in Game 1 of the second round. But the good news for Los Angeles is that Utah hasn’t played in six days and thus is also likely to start slow offensively. It was a similar amount of time off that the Jazz had going into the first round. In Game 1 of that series with Memphis, they turned in their lowest scoring effort of just 109 points. Them and the Grizzlies found a way to sneak Over in all five games that they played, but we expect a different scenario to play out here with the Clippers. In the last five games, the Clippers held Dallas to an average of 100.4 points/game on just 42.3% shooting. Mike Conley is questionable tonight for Utah and that would be a big loss. Conley had a great first round series against his former team. On the bright side for the Jazz, they give up only 105.2 points/game at home. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Clippers have been underdogs, which doesn’t happen often. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO The home team is 4-0 in this series, which is a matchup of arguably the two best teams in the league. Colorado and Vegas tied for the most points in the regular season. They were 1-2 in goal differential. Home ice being such an edge really shouldn’t shock any of us. Colorado is 26-4-2 at home. Vegas is 25-6-3. Now the series goes back to Denver. Guess who we’ll be playing? It is very hard to look past how good the Avalanche had been in the playoffs before dropping the last two games in Sin City. They won the first six games by a combined score of 30-10. They are 20-0-1 the last 21 home games which does include the four playoff wins. They beat Vegas 7-1 in Game 1 before squeaking out a 3-2 overtime victory in Game 2. The Avs top line struggled in Vegas, but had six goals and 24 shots in the first two games. Look for the home team trend to continue. Colorado has had just one three-game losing streak all season. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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06-08-21 | Indians -160 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND There’s a lot of Interleague games on the board tonight, but this one features what looks to be the biggest pitching mismatch. We went against Carlos Martinez in his last start. That proved to be a wise decision as the right-hander gave up 10 runs in two-thirds of an inning. The Cardinals ended up losing 14-3 to the Dodgers in what was our MLB Game of the Week. The losing streak has now hit five after the team was swept at home by Cincinnati over the weekend. They’ve lost seven out of their last eight. There’s never an ideal time to face Shane Bieber, but this seems like a particularly bad matchup for St. Louis tonight. Bieber, last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL, has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season. Cleveland has won his last three times out and nine of the previous 11 times he’s started a game. Making things even worse for St. Louis is that there are multiple injuries in the everyday lineup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Neither Seattle nor Detroit are going to make much noise this season. But expect the Mariners to come out with a chip on their shoulder for Monday’s opener at Comerica Park. They will want to erase the memory of being swept at home by the Tigers last month as quickly as possible. Seattle is off a 14-game stretch of division games that saw them end up 9-5. They beat the Angels on Sunday, 9-5. Marco Gonzales will get the start Monday. He looked good last Tuesday, giving up just one run on two hits. It was his first start in more than a month due to a forearm strain. Even though Seattle ended up losing the game 12-6, we’d safely call it a successful return. Going back to April, Gonzales has allowed no more than two runs in four consecutive outings. That’s good. Matthew Boyd’s last start for Detroit was not good. He allowed three home runs. It was the fourth straight start he gave up at least four runs and in three of those four he allowed five. Detroit still won that last Boyd start, 10-7 over Milwaukee, so it was a much different scenario than what Gonzales experienced in his last start. This is a great price to go against the Tigers. They’ve been money line favorites only six times prior to this. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -177 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI A poor stretch has landed the Marlins in last place in their division. But almost never have we been THIS confident about taking a team that’s lost 9 of its last 10 games. This is because they are back home and facing Colorado. The Rockies are an unthinkable 4-22 in road games so far. They’ve been shut out ten times and outscored more than 2:1 (131-63). Pablo Lopez was set to start Monday for Miami, but was pushed back a day for rest purposes. This is a very good thing. Instead of facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park, Lopez now gets to pitch at home where he’s got 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Colorado is hitting .197 in road games and scoring just 2.4 runs/game. It gets worse. Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies tonight. His team start record away from home is 0-3 and that’s with a 7.14 ERA + 2.03 WHIP. Miami is better than its record and will win this battle of 1993 expansion teams. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We also like this Royals-Angels game to go Over on Monday. Even after a 2-1 loss Sunday, Kansas City has averaged 6.9 runs over its last seven games. The Over is 7-1-2 their L10 games. They had a seven-game stretch of scoring at least five runs before losing Saturday and Sunday. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. While we like Dylan Bundy to pick up his first win of the season today for the Angels, it is somewhat difficult to look past his 6.49 ERA. It’s going to take runs for the Angels to win this game and we think they’ll get them. One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. So go with the Angels and the Over in Monday’s series opener. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels -151 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA ANGELS Coming off a 9-5 loss to Seattle on Sunday, look for the Angels to bounce back and take out the Royals on Monday. The Angels had won two in a row before losing Sunday’s game while the Royals have now lost two straight. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. Dylan Bundy is winless and has the bad ERA we talked about in the Over writeup. But One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. It’s telling how the money line has moved this morning. It’s going to take some runs for the Angels to win this game, but we think they get them and they’ll win while the game also goes OVER. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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06-07-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTREAL If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. It’s become very clear that Montreal has become a very different team in the postseason. Since falling behind Toronto three games to one in the first round series, the Habs have stormed back to win six in a row and are now just one win away from the final four and being North Division Champs. At no point during this six game win streak have the Canadiens trailed. That’s impressive. They proved us wrong by smashing Winnipeg 5-1 last night and the 24-hour turnaround does the Jets NO favors. It’s extremely hard to get motivated when down 0-3 in a series, knowing that only four teams in history have ever come back from that deficit. Montreal goalie Price has been out of his mind the last four games with a .958 save percentage. It’s been 376:18 since the Habs last trailed in a game. That’s the fifth longest stretch in the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Winnipeg lost 9 of its last 12 regular season games before a surprise sweep of Edmonton in Round 1. Three of the four wins against the Oilers required OT. We were dead wrong about yesterday and will now rectify that. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 86-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The pace was furious, but slowed down in the fourth quarter and the end result was that the Bucks and Nets went Under in Game 1. After 62, 62 and 58 combined points were scored in the first three quarters, there were only 40 in the fourth. While none of the quarters in tonight’s Game 2 may end up as low scoring as the fourth was on Saturday, we also don’t think the pace will be quite as furious as we saw early on in Game 1. The big story is James Harden being OUT for Brooklyn due to hamstring tightness. Harden missed all but one possession in Game 1 and while the Nets still scored 115 points, that’s below their season average and they shot 46.9%. Durant and Irving went a combined 23 of 51. But the big surprise was Griffin and Harris going 14 of 24 overall and 9 of 18 from three. We just don’t see those two doing that again. Milwaukee’s three-point shooting was an issue in Game 1 as they missed 24 of 30 attempts. They also were 11 of 19 from the FT line. While those percentages probably will improve, it’s still a very high total that we’re dealing with and we don’t see 15 more total points scored than what we saw in Game 1. Milwaukee is 4-0 Under off a loss. The 115 points they allowed in Game 1 were a playoff high (previous high in regulation was 103). Brooklyn has allowed an average of 104.5 points in four playoff home games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -186 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -186 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 7* on BOSTON The Islanders and Bruins are deadlocked at two games apiece in this series as we head to Game 5 in Boston. Furthermore, both teams have scored 11 goals in the four games. Each has a three-goal victory and a one-goal victory. The Islanders won Game 4, 4-1, and we took them. But we also cited their tremendous home record as a reason for doing so. The road has been far less kind to the Isles this year. They were 11-13-4 in the regular season. They are 3-2 in the postseason, but all three wins came in overtime. Boston’s top line was held without a goal in Game 4, something we expect to see change in Game 5. The Bruins are 2-0 off a loss so far in the playoffs and 11-2 their previous 13 home games. This looks to be a classic bounce back position. Things could have gone a lot differently in the last game had David Pastrnak not hit the post on a wide open net when the game was still scoreless. That 4-1 loss was very misleading as the Islanders added two empty-net goals after getting what turned out to be the game-winner with just under seven minutes to go. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is Miami’s second trip to Fenway Park in the last 11 days. The first one did not go well as they lost both games. That started a free fall as the Marlins wound up losing eight in a row, a streak that didn’t end until yesterday’s 3-1 win in Pittsburgh. However, this time they may be catching the Red Sox in a favorable spot. Boston went 3-0 over the weekend at Yankee Stadium and that’s a high that will be difficult to come down from. The previous two games between these teams also both stayed Under. The final scores were 5-2 and 3-1. The Marlins lack of offense was odd considering they get to play with a DH. Expect more runs from them the second time around at Fenway. Nick Pivetta, despite owning a 9-2 team start record, has not exactly been a dominant starter for Boston. The Over is 5-1 in his six home starts and his ERA in his last three overall is 5.29. We don’t think the Red Sox will have much difficulty scoring runs either as they are putting up 5.2/game at Fenway. They averaged six per game over the weekend against Yankees pitching. Pablo Lopez, who starts Monday for Miami, has twice allowed six runs in a start this year. Both times were on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Jets +124 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG We think it’s time for Montreal to stop winning. The only team that made the playoffs with a negative regular season goal differential has come “back from the dead,” winning its last five games. They were down 3-1 in the first round series against Toronto and haven’t lost since! They are now up 2-0 on the Jets after taking both games in Winnipeg. After winning a high-scoring affair in Game 1, 5-3, the Habs got Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout in Game 2, 1-0. Price made 30 saves and the only goal in the game came with Montreal actually playing short-handed. Winnipeg has to be kicking itself right now. But all is not lost yet. This is a team that won three overtime games in the first round sweep over Edmonton. Once they came back from a three goal deficit. It would be foolish to write them off. We think they are the better team and, again, can’t see Montreal continue to win. Yes, they are hot. During the five game win streak, they have not trailed. You’d have to go back to 2012 to find the last time a team pulled that off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Jets are 6-0 their last six as underdogs. This is the first time Montreal has been favored in these playoffs. Play on WINNIPEG AAA |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout gave Montreal a 2-0 series on Friday. It was 1-0 Montreal in Game 2, the lone goal actually coming when the Habs were playing short-handed. That was a sharp contrast to Game 1, a 5-3 game that featured two four goal periods. Price made 30 saves in Game 2. Montreal got off only 24 shots though, so it was a very fortunate win for them. They have not trailed at any point during their 5-0 playoff run, something that has not been done by any team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2012. The Under is 10-3-1 in Montreal’s last 14 home games and 4-0 in Winnipeg’s last four road games. Stasny may return for the Jets tonight, but Scheifele remains suspended. So they are thin at the center line position. We expect goalie Connor Hellebuyck (.940 save percentage in the playoffs to step up in this one as well. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SAN DIEGO San Diego took the first two games of the series, but had no answers for Jacob deGrom on Saturday. That 4-0 loss was fine by us as we took the Under. But the Mets obviously can’t have deGrom pitch every day and the bottom line here is they are facing one of the top teams in baseball. The Padres allow just 3.4 runs per game, #1 in the league. They allow just 2.8 runs per game at home. There’s one team that allows fewer runs per game at home and it’s the best. But this game is in San Diego. The Padres are 20-11 at home this year. The Mets are 13-18 on the road. San Diego lost its final two games in May and first two here in June. Other than that four-game losing streak, there’s been just one other time since April 22nd when they dropped back to back games. All of those losses were on the road too. Look for Chris Paddack to bounce back today after a poor start at Wrigley Field. Paddack had allowed no more than one run in four consecutive starts before giving up five to the Cubs last weekend. Marcus Stroman has been good for the Mets, but we don’t see him getting much support from one of the NL’s weakest offenses. The Padres simply have more firepower at the plate and can be trusted when not going against deGrom. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The only Game 7 of the first round comes from a series where the road team is 6-0. That had never happened before the Mavs and Clippers, but here we are. It’s a series where we’ve gone 6-1, our only loss coming with Dallas in Game 6 as we had expected them to break “the curse” of the home team. That obviously did not happen. But we are 4 for 4 when playing the total. We had the Under in Games 1, 4 and 5 so that’s been our favorite bet throughout the series. Sharp money has definitely hit the Under hard for Game 7, which should not be a surprise. The Under has hit each of the last three games (Game 6 ended up being 104-97), none of which have exceeded 205 total points. Also, Unders have done historically well in Game 7’s, hitting over 60% of the time. Dallas is making only 43.9% of their shots the last five games after a hot start to the series. The Clippers have not been hitting their threes as Game 5 saw them plummet down to 29.4 percent (10 of 34) from that range. As we’ve stated before, the Mavs typically go Under when they’re underdogs. That record now stands at 23-7 for the year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1. Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |