Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-19-19 | Mets v. Braves -147 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA We smartly laid off the Braves last night as they were up against Jacob deGrom. That particular matchup didn't go well for them as they were beaten 10-2 with the only two runs scored coming in the bottom of the ninth when the game was well out of hand. But Atlanta was a winner for us on Monday and we're back on them again tonight. Despite losing Tuesday, your NL East leaders still have won 10 of their last 12 games. Going into yesterday, they'd scored 90 runs in 11 games. They should rediscover that offense today going against Steven Matz, who is certainly not deGrom. Matz has a 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP away from home this year. Max Fried goes for Atlanta. He'd gotten off to a great start to the year, but has struggled here in June. Look for him to get back on track tonight though as the Braves are a perfect 6-0 following the last six times they were held to two runs or less. The Mets are just 1-4 off their previous five victories. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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06-19-19 | Astros -168 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Wednesday afternoon. Houston's 1st visit to Great American Ballpark since 2012 has not gone as expected as they've dropped the first two games. But the depth advantage the Astros have in their starting rotation comes full force here as they'll send out Gerrit Cole while the Reds are stuck with Tyler Mahle. Cole has a sub-1.00 WHIP on the year as Houston has won the last four times he's pitched. All four starts saw him go at least six innings and allow two earned runs or fewer. He also has 40 strikeouts in 25 innings. Mahle hasn't made it past the fifth in any of his last four starts and he allowed four runs just his last time out. He's allowed 16 runs total in the four starts. What's most impressive about Houston pitching is that it has held opponents to a .203 batting average on the road. The Astros are 6-1 in Cole's last seven interleague starts and 16-3 his last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 1-8 in Mahle's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-18-19 | Royals v. Mariners -117 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEATTLE Going with an opener last night, the Mariners lost to the Royals 6-4. Yet even with the opener not working out (Tayler Scott gave up two runs), Seattle was still in position to down KC for a 10th straight time. Tommy Milone came in and gave the home team 6+ solid innings, allowing only one run and three hits. The Mariners were up 4-2 heading into the seventh, but the bullpen let them down by giving up four runs over those final three frames. As much as Seattle has struggled over these last two months, it's never a good idea to back the Royals off a win as they are just 6-16 in this situation. They're also just 10-25 on the road. With both of tonight's starters (Kikuchi for Seattle, Bailey for Kansas City) coming off better than usual outings, we'll side with the better offensive team tonight. Seattle still is averaging over five runs per game, a full run more than Kansas City. Also, look at whom each pitcher faced in their respective last starts. Bailey faced the league's lowest scoring team (Detroit) while Kikuchi faced the highest scoring team (Minnesota). Seattle is 6-0 following their last six losses. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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06-18-19 | Indians -122 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND The Indians rolled into Arlington feeling pretty good about themselves. They'd just swept Detroit over the weekend, on the road, and thus had a shot at passing the Rangers in the Wild Card race. Granted Detroit is a bad team, but Cleveland certainly did it's job, outscoring the Tigers 25-6. But Monday was a reality check as Texas beat them 7-2. We look for the Indians to bounce back tonight. We definitely have liked what we've seen from Zach Plesac, who will be getting the start. In four starts, Plesac has given up only eight runs in 24 2/3 innings. He had a little issue with the home run ball in his last start, but we don't see that being a problem here. Texas starter Sampson had an even bigger issue with the home run ball in his last start, giving up FOUR in a 7-6 loss to Boston. He allowed six runs overall as his ERA rose to 5.61 for the year. Note that all seven Rangers runs scored yesterday came with two outs, which could be dubbed as being pretty lucky. No such "luck" Tuesday. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-18-19 | Astros -158 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on HOUSTON Houston took a rare loss on Monday, falling to the Reds by a score of 3-2. We had the Under, so that result was just fine on this end. It was actually the Astros second loss in a row as they were humbled Sunday in Toronto, 12-0. But with Justin Verlander on the bump tonight, it should be a pretty easy return to the winners circle. Verlander continues to pitch extraordinarily well as he has an 11-4 TSR, 2.50 ER and 0.735 WHIP. That WHIP is what really stands out as it's the best in all of baseball by a fairly comfortable margin. Now in his last start he was tagged for three solo home runs and that was the difference in a 6-3 loss to Milwaukee (another NL Central team). But those were the only runs he allowed and he did have 15 strikeouts. This seems to be a really short price on the Astros given Cincinnati has Anthony DeSclafani pitching and he's been subpar to say the least. The Reds are only .500 at home while the Astros are 21-14 on the road. Houston is 25-5 in Verlander's last 30 road starts while Cincy is just 1-6 in DeSclafani's last seven at home. The Reds are also just 5-16 off their previous 21 wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-17-19 | Mets v. Braves -147 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on ATLANTA Atlanta is really hot right now. They've lost only twice this month and are 9-1 in the last 10 games. As a result, they're out in front of the NL East. It was a 15-1 win on Sunday over the Phillies. Now the Mets come to town and they are not playing well. New York dropped three of four in its last series (vs. St. Louis). While they were able to split a four-game series here at SunTrust Park back in April, this visit just seems like a poor matchup. Mike Soroka had not yet joined the Braves rotation when these teams last met. Now he's a full-fledged member and one of their best starters. Soroka is 7-1 with 1.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. A rare poor outing occurred his last trip to the mound as he gave up five runs vs. Pittsburgh. But the Braves still won 8-7, improving to 8-3 in all Soroka starts. The Mets with Zach Wheeler starting simply aren't built to compete here. Wheeler has a 5.48 ERA on the road. The Mets are just 14-23 on the road. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER A Reds game actually went Over yesterday. They (the Reds) did all the lifting themselves, scoring 11 runs on Texas, thereby ending an 11-game Under streak that began on June 1st. By winning, they also avoided a sweep. Now they welcome in Houston for a second straight interleague series. The Astros will surely be in a foul mood after getting beat 12-0 by Toronto on Sunday. The first two games of that series went much differently with the Astros scoring 22 runs and winning both. But the offense could very well struggle again here as they face Luis Castillo, who is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the Reds. The Under is 10-4 in his 14 starts. Castillo has allowed just two runs, both solo homers, in his last two starts and only six hits total. The Astros have quite the limited lineup right now with a number of key players out. The pitcher must also hit in this game because it's a NL park. That pitcher will be Wade Miley, who threw six scoreless innings his last start. He's allowed more than three runs just one time in his 14 starts. This will be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati AAA |
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06-16-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Cubs-Dodgers The Cubs denied us a second straight win in this series (won with the Dodgers Friday) with a two-run rally in the ninth last night (we had the Dodgers Friday). That would have also been the Dodgers third straight win over the Cubs had Anthony Rizzo not connected on a 2-run HR. Nevertheless, we're going to continue playing this series, only this time looking at the total. While last night's game certainly featured little in the way of scoring, the first two games saw 10 and 8 total runs scored. The Dodgers are averaging 5.6 runs/game at home while the Cubs average 5.5 on the road. The key here will be the Cubs getting a few at the expense of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been just incredible this year. In his last seven starts, Ryu has allowed all of three runs in 50 2/3 innings! He's walked only five batters all year. But we think the Cubs can get a few off him (Ryu has a 4.24 ERA in three previous starts against them) and their starter Jose Quintana is 0-3 over his last four starts with a 5.48 ERA. Play OVER Cubs-Dodgers AAA |
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06-16-19 | Aces v. Lynx OVER 158 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Las Vegas is off its best game of the season. The Aces clobbered New York by a score of 100-65, easily their largest margin of victory in any game this season. (But all three wins have been by at least 13 points). Despite scoring 100 points, the game still stayed Under, which was the fourth straight Under for LV. Here they're matched up against a Minnesota team on a three-game losing streak, which you don't see all that often. The Lynx are usually one of the league's better teams, but they're giving up a lot of points in 2019. The last two home games have seen them allow at least 85. Las Vegas is allowing 81 PPG on the road. The Over is 7-3 the last 10 meetings here in Minnesota. Number is too low for this Sunday night affair. Play OVER Las Vegas-Minnesota AAA |
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06-16-19 | Brewers -141 v. Giants | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE The Brewers have stumbled the last two days, dropping a couple of games to the last place Giants. Milwaukee still remains in a first place tie (with the Cubs) over in the NL Central though and can at least preserve that by avoiding the sweep Sunday. We think they will. Chase Anderson gets the baseball in this important spot and has pitched well before here at Oracle Park. (He's 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts). Anderson allowed just two runs and four hits his last start. The Giants did score 8 runs while banging out 15 hits Saturday, but they are still one of the worse offensive teams in the league. They are 28th (3rd worst) in runs scored and have the NL's lowest batting average. They're on a season-high four game win streak right now, but that pretty much speaks to how bad the team has been most of the way. Jeff Samardzija has a 5.28 ERA his last three starts and is 1-4 his last five starts. Christian Yelich of the Brewers is 6 for 16 all-time against Samardzija. SF is still just 15-39 its last 54 games vs. a team that has a winning record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC UNDER 51.5 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 18 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC -1 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BRITISH COLUMBIA British Columbia is hosting Winnipeg in the final matchup of CFL Week 1, an all Western Division battle. B.C. is looking to improve upon last season's .500 record while Winnipeg feels like it can win the division after going 10-8 and winning its first round playoff game. But the Lions are a strong home team (went 7-2 here last season) and should take this season opener. The home team captured both meetings in 2018. B.C. definitely improved in the offseason. We like the coaching change and nabbing QB Mike Reilly away from Edmonton was the biggest free agent move in the division. Reilly is now the highest paid player in the entire CFL, making $725K annually. The Blue Bombers seem a little overhyped to us as we don't see the ground game being quite as effective as it was last year. Again, B.C. is a much better team at home. Play on BRITISH COLUMBIA AAA |
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06-15-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -190 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -190 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers were our *10* Game of the Week on Friday and they came through, in come from behind fashion, beating the Cubs 5-3. It was their fifth straight win overall as they made it two straight over the Cubs. Why not come right back with them again tonight. They'll send out Walker Buehler, who - like everyone else in this Dodgers rotation - has been outstanding over the last month or so. Buehler is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last eight starts and has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched. The Cubs seem ill-equipped to deal with him given that they've lost 8 of 10 on the road. The Dodgers have the best home record in all of baseball (27-7) and have won seven in a row here. They are averaging 5.7 runs/game at Chavez Ravine while allowing only 3.4. The former is third best overall, the latter tied for first (home games only). Yu Darvish has been way too inconsistent to bet on as he has bad memories of pitching here in Los Angeles (2017 World Series) and his team start record on the road is just 2-5. The Cubs are 2-9 their last 11 games in this stadium. The Dodgers have won the last seven times Buehler has started on five days rest. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-15-19 | Dream v. Wings +3 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DALLAS Dallas plus the points represents our only loss of the WNBA season and it came by just half of a point! The loss took place Thursday and kept the Wings as the league's only winless team (0-5). This is a team certainly playing shorthanded right now as its two best players - Skylar Diggins (maternity leave) and rookie Arike Ogunbowale (sprained ankle) - have missed time. But those absences haven't kept the Wings from being competitive. Three of the five losses, including Thursday's, have been by four points or less. This is as favorable a matchup as any they can ask for as they suit up Saturday to take on Atlanta. The Dream have just one win on the season and are the only team with a worse point differential than Dallas. That lone win did come at the Wings' expense, back in the season opener, but was also at home and saw them have to rally late (outscored Dallas 29-17 in 4th quarter). Not that Dallas needed the added motivation, but we'll take the revenge angle. Reports are that Ogunbowale could return here as well. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Houston -1.5 The Astros absolutely trashed the Blue Jays Friday night (won 15-2!) and should be able to do it again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are pretty much one of the worst teams in baseball right now. Only two teams have been outscored more runs over the course of the season: Baltimore and Detroit. The only real reason to follow the team, Vlad Guerrero Jr, has been a disappointment (thus far) and had to leave last night's game after taking a fastball to the hand. His status for Saturday is unclear, but even with him in the lineup, Toronto has the worst batting average in all of MLB. They probably won't be getting good pitching today either as Clayton Richard has a 7.04 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his four starts. He gave up seven runs in only 2 2/3 innings in the last one. The Jays' closer (Ken Giles) is also on the DL. Houston has injuries up and down its lineup right now, but last night proved that hardly matters. Framber Valdez looked good in his first start even though the Astros lost the game. He went seven innings and allowed just a run. Play Houston -1.5 on the Run Line. AAA |
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06-15-19 | Angels v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Rays/Angels Tampa Bay came back from an early 4-0 deficit to easily down the Angels last night. Their nine runs were scored across two innings. That isn't likely to repeated this afternoon. The Rays' previous five games had all stayed Under as had 9 of their last 10. But the Angels are even more likely to struggle to score here as they have to go up against Charlie Morton, the surprise Cy Young contender who is still unbeaten (8-0) after 14 starts. Morton has a 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year and hasn't allowed a run in June with 14 scoreless innings under his belt. Remember that the Rays have allowed fewer runs this year than every other team. They allow just 3.3 per game. Before losing yesterday, LA had won three in a row, all by the same score of 5-3. All three games stayed Under. They're sending out Jose Suarez, whose only two starts both came against Seattle, a high-scoring team that hits lots of home runs. The Rays are a very different type of offense. Play UNDER Angels-Rays AAA |
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06-14-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
THis is a 10* play on the DODGERS This weekend series pits two of the NL's top teams against one another. The Dodgers have the best record in the league (46-23) and drew "first blood" last night with a 7-3 win over the Cubs. Four home runs were the difference for LA as they rallied from an early 3-0 hole. The Cubs seem to have a real issue winning on the road. They've lost 8 of 10 away from Wrigley to fall to 14-19 on the road for the year. They'd lost five straight road games before a 10-1 win over Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Things aren't going to get any easier for them on Friday as they are set to face Rich Hill. Hill hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start all year. The Cubs have hit just .167 against him in two previous matchups. This Dodgers team is now 26-7 at home. On the surface, it looks like Kyle Hendricks might be the right man to try and get the Cubs a win here. He has a 1.99 ERA his previous eight starts, winning six consecutive decisions and is a perfect 3-0 the last three. But the Dodgers have had Hendricks' number at Chavez Ravine where his ERA is 6.52. His shortest start of 2018 came here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-14-19 | Mariners v. A's -178 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -178 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
THis is a 7* play on OAKLAND Seattle has been in rough shape for awhile now as they've dropped 41 of their last 57 games. Look for the misery to continue tonight in Oakland where they'll open up a three-game series. The Mariners allowed 10 runs in yesterday afternoon's loss to the Twins. That increased their league leading total to 443 runs allowed for the year. Only one other team, Baltimore, has given up 400. The M's figure to give up plenty more tonight with Marco Gonzales starting as he brings an 11.30 ERA and 1.74 WHIP from his previous three starts. On the other side, Oakland is in a good spot here. They had Thursday off after beating Tampa Bay on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Don't be scared off by this high price either; the A's are 11-2 the previous two seasons as home favorites of -175 or more (1st time this year). Chris Bassitt gets the start and should lead his team to victory in the opener of this season-long 10-game homestand. The A's are only allowing 3.9 runs/game at home this year. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton -10 | Top | 25-32 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on EDMONTON Edmonton kicks off the 2019 season with a home game against Montreal. Last season was not a good one for the visitors as it included a failed experiment with Johnny Football (imagine that!) and a 5-13 record. The Eskimos may have finished last in the Western Division with a 9-9 record, but that was a better record than all but one team in the Eastern Division. The fact that they were the only Western team not to make the Grey Cup Playoffs will have them motivated in this season opener. We look for the Eskimos to roll here as Montreal is just 1-4 ATS its last five season openers. The Alouettes also have so many question marks with the league having to take over ownership of the team and a new head coach just named six days ago. Edmonton has no such issues and far more stability. They beat Montreal by 16 and 19 points in the two games played last season. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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06-14-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER KC-MINNESOTA The Twins are a team that certainly needs little help in going Over the total. They lead all of baseball in runs scored at 404. They average 6.0 per game, so it shouldn't take much assistance from the Royals here to cash this ticket. Luckily, KC put seven runs on the board last night in a win over Detroit. That game was played in Omaha (to hype the College World Series) and what was most impressive about the Royals offense is that they scored four of those seven runs against a very competant starter in Matthew Boyd. Here they'll face Kyle Gibson. In his last start, Gibson surrendered five runs in five innings (two home runs) to a Tigers team that is dead last in MLB in runs. The Twins have gone Over five in a row and are 7-0-1 Over their last eight. Facing a starter that has a 4-10 TSR (Brad Keller) should lead to them at least hitting their average, if not exceeding it. The Over hit both times these teams faced off earlier in the year and is 27-11-2 the previous 40 meetings. Play OVER Kansas City-Minnesota AAA |
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06-14-19 | Sun v. Lynx OVER 152 | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Connecticut has started the season red hot as they're 6-1. Minnesota is just 4-3 after dropping back to back decisions to New York and Los Angeles (both losses by 6 points or less). What's been most impressive about the Sun's strong start to the season is that it's come despite them shooting below 40% from the field. There was a game last week in Atlanta where they shot 28.4% and still won (65-59). We look for a much higher scoring game today vs. the Lynx. Not only has Connecticut scored 80 or more five times this season, but the last time Minnesota played at home, they scored 85. Of course, they also gave up 89, which makes our belief in the Over even stronger here. The Sun scored 50 in the second half of Tuesday's 83-75 win over Washington. The Over is 8-2 the last 10 times the Sun have been off an ATS win. Play OVER Connecticut-Minnesota AAA |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Golden State has yet to its season scoring average in any of the five Finals games and now faces the reality of being without Kevin Durant the rest of the way. But the closing stretch of Game #5 showed to us that they may not need Durant after all. At least not to find offense. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson took over, making three straight three-pointers to win the game 106-105. The game still stayed Under, albeit barely though. The Over is still 9-4 in the previous 13 meetings. On the other side, Toronto only made 25% of its three-point attempts in the last game. Even playing on the road, that's a number that's sure to go up in Game #6. Note it was 62-56 at halftime in Game #5, so things were well on their way for an Over. Four of the five games have seen at least 211 total points scored. Play OVER Toronto-Golden State AAA |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton OVER 48 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER SAS-HAM It's time to kick off the CFL season with a cross-division matchup between Saskatchewan and Hamilton. The Ti-Cats (Hamilton) went just 8-10 last season, but fortunately for them they're in the East Division and that record was good enough to make the playoffs. The Roughriders were a solid 12-6, good for second in the West, but they didn't make it as far in the playoffs as Hamilton. The Ti-Cats made it one step further, winning their first playoff game while Saskatchewan was "one and done." For this first game of 2019, we like things to be a little higher scoring than expected. Both teams have first year head coaches. Roughriders QB Zach Collaros is returning to Hamilton to face his former team, so look for an inspired performance there. The Over has hit in 15 of Saskatchewan's last 22 season openers. Hamilton closed last season by going Over in five of its last six games. Play OVER Saskatchewan-Hamilton AAA |
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06-13-19 | Pirates v. Braves -142 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA The Pirates are in a terrible way right now and last night's loss may have been the breaking point. They lost 8-7 in 11 innings and now have to come right back and play a day game here in Atlanta. Pittsburgh has yet to win in the series, giving up 28 runs in three games. It seems very unlikely that they would prevail today, given the situation and the pitcher they are facing. The Braves Julio Teheran comes in on an 11-inning scoreless streak having previously blanked the Tigers and Marlins. By the way, Atlanta has now won six straight. Pittsburgh has lost six straight and 17 of its last 23. To stop the bleeding, they'll send out Joe Musgrove, who worked 2/3 of an inning earlier in the series before getting ejected. He gets a second crack here, but is it really worth it? Musgrove has a 4.77 ERA. Teheran has a 0.77 ERA his last seven starts and is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA in his career vs. the Pirates. This seems like an easy one. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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06-12-19 | Blues v. Bruins -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 45 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON St. Louis blew it, plain and simple. They had Boston at home, with a chance to win the Stanley Cup, and instead lost 5-1. Now the Bruins get the winner-take-all Game #7 in their place and we've got them coming away victorious. In some ways, it's a miracle the Blues even got to this point. They had the fewest number of points in the entire league back on January 2nd. But the city of St. Louis will have to wait at least another year to pass around Lord Stanley's Cup for the very first time. The Bruins have outscored the Blues in the series 21-14. They really took over in the third period of Game #6 by scoring four goals. Tuukka Rask has outplayed Jordan Binnington in this series, at least in our opinion. Rask's .938 save percentage in the playoffs is something worth leaning on. While the road team has won four of the previous five games in the series, we can't see the Blues winning for a third straight time in Boston. Not with everything on the line this time. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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06-12-19 | Brewers v. Astros -124 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON This is a ridiculously low price on the Astros with Justin Verlander pitching at home. What's not to like here? Houston beat Milwaukee 10-8 yesterday and now gives the ball to Verlander, who has an 11-3 team start record with a 2.40 ERA and 0.747 WHIP. There have been only five times all season that Verlander has allowed more than one run. He's never allowed more than four and only twice given up more than three. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff has been pretty dominant in his own right, but the lineup he'll face today is a lot stronger than what he's used to seeing in the National League. The Astros have scored more runs than nearly every NL team. Since coming to Houston nearly two years ago, Verlander is 30-11 with a 2.32 ERA in 53 starts. The Brewers have lost 8 of their last 9 interleague road games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-12-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON Needless to say, the Red Sox won't be the most popular ticket in Boston on Thursday. In fact, the start time of this game at Fenway Park was moved up because of the Bruins hosting Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. While Bostonians obviously care more about winning that game (would be the city's third straight pro sports championship following the Red Sox and Patriots), the reigning World Series Champs need to stop the bleeding here against a Texas team that's beaten them each of the last two days. Rick Porcello is charged with the task and we'll back him, especially at the going price. The Red Sox have actually dropped four in a row overall, but before losing last night, they'd been 13-4 the L3 seasons when off three straight losses. The start time being moved to 4:05 ET is actually a benefit to the home team as they are 73-46 in day games since 2017. Texas goes with Lance Lynn, who has been on a bit of a roll, but the Rangers are still 4-12 the last 16 games vs. the Red Sox and 2-7 their last nine here in Fenway. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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06-12-19 | Reds v. Indians -117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Cleveland The Indians can claim bragging rights in the state of Ohio if they were to win again today. They won last night, 2-1 in 10 innings, and now go for the sweep of a quick two-game home series. While Cleveland has won 5 of 7, the Reds offense has mysteriously disappeared in a stretch that's seen them drop 7 of 10 and 5 of 6. In the L10 games, Cincy has scored more than four runs just one time. We don't like their chances today against Zach Plesac. In three starts, Plesac has looked good every time out. He's got a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP and two of the three starts came against the Yankees and Red Sox. So the Reds shouldn't be much of a challenge for him. While you might still consider Plesac somewhat of an unknown, the jury is out on Cincy's Anthony DeSclafani and the verdict is not good. He has a 4.70 ERA on the year and has struggled more even recently during a five-game winless skid. The Indians have beaten the Reds 15 of the last 20 times they've played. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-11-19 | Padres v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF -1.5 If any two teams were "destined" to play a one-run game today it would be these two. Both have done quite well for themselves in one-run games this year with the Padres at 16-6 and the Giants 14-6. All we need is a one-run game and it's a win for us either way as we'll be playing the run line (Giants +1.5) in this one. Chris Paddack has started to slow down for the Padres, giving up 10 runs in his last two starts. He's only 4-4 on the year. The Padres have only two wins in the last six games overall and both came by one run. Four of the seven times they've won with Paddack on the mound this year have been one run affairs. The Giants could very well win this game as well. Beede is starting for the first time at home. Play San Francisco RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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06-11-19 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER DET-KC Even though Kansas City is looking up at Detroit in the standings (as well as every other team), there's a case to be made that the Tigers have played worse. Detroit's -109 run differential is 2nd worst in all baseball with only Baltimore being outscored by a wider margin. Kansas City has "only" been outscored by 72 runs, by comparison. The primary reason that the Tigers have four more wins is that they are 5-1 head to head with the Royals this year. But KC can change that here. Detroit has scored the least amount of runs of any team in MLB. But this probably isn't the best spot to bet against them as Spencer Turnbull has been one of their better starters, if not the best. Turnbull has faced the Royals twice this year and both were quality outings. He's allowed more than three runs just one time in 13 starts. The Royals have dropped 8 of 9 and have topped three runs in only two of those games. A bit of positive news for them is that starter Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. Detroit. Play UNDER Detroit-KC AAA |
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06-11-19 | Mariners v. Twins -168 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA The Twins should roll in Tuesday's opener vs. Seattle. They're back home for the first time this month and facing a Mariners team that has basically gone in the complete opposite direction. While Minnesota is your surprise leader in the AL Central and is tied for the best win percentage in all of baseball (.672), Seattle has been the worst team in either league since it started 13-2. The Mariners have lost 39 of their last 54 games and are pretty much outclassed here in all facets with the exception of home run hitting. But even there, Minnesota happens to be the one team averaging more HR/game. A key factor here is the Twins having Martin Perez starting. Not only does he have a 1.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season, but he's 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA lifetime vs. Seattle. The Mariners have elected to go with Mike Leake, who is 1-5 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. Earlier this year, the Twins took three of four from the Mariners and that was out in Seattle and they played without DH Nelson Cruz. They still outscored Seattle 40-18 in the four games. The Mariners have lost all five games this year that have come after an off day. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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06-11-19 | Storm v. Fever OVER 156.5 | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER SEATTLE-INDIANA Indiana did not have a good 2018 season. They won only six games (lost 28!) and finished in last place in the league. Just five game into 2019, they've already won half as many games as they did a year ago and now have a chance to finish 3-1 on this homestand if they can beat Seattle Tuesday night. The Storm come into this one at an even 3-3 and are off a poor performance as they never led in a 78-71 loss to Chicago. We expect them to shoot a lot better here, especially from three-point range. They were just 3 of 18 from behind the arc in Chicago. Scoring really hadn't been an issue before that, even without injured stars Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird, as the Storm had scored at least 79 points in each of the three games prior. Defensively though, things are a bit of a mess. They've given up almost 80 PPG the last three games. Indiana just gave up 94 points in its last game. But they've scored at least 77 in every game this season. Play OVER Seattle-Indiana AAA |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE It's do or die time for the Warriors on Monday. They hope to accomplish what the Bruins did last in NHL; that's stay alive by winning on the road. Of course, they're task is a whole lot tougher than the Bruins as they trail in this series 3 games to 1. In the entire history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever come back to win after trailing 3-1. Golden State knows this very well as it happened to them back in 2016 against Cleveland. The big news is that Kevin Durant has practiced and is listed as questionable for Game #5. Even if he doesn't end up playing, we're still taking the Warriors. They're too good to go down without a fight. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both returned for Game 4. Before the last two games, they'd never lost two in a row at home in the playoffs under Kerr. Their only three-game playoff losing streak under Kerr came in that 2016 Finals vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Could Toronto be too "amped up" for this? We look for this to be a big bounce back game offensively for Golden State with or without Durant. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-10-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON using the Run Line (-1.5) We don't see Texas being any match for Chris Sale and Boston Monday night. Sale has pitched much better than a 4-9 team start record shows. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP, including 0.76 the last three times he's started. His last start was a gem as he tossed a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, giving up only three hits along the way. In his last seven starts, he's struck out 10+ six times. Somehow Sale has yet to win a decision this year at Fenway, but look for that to change here - in a major way - as the Red Sox should win this game by multiple runs. Texas lost yesterday - as they ended up splitting a four game series against Oakland. They have Mike Minor pitching today and he has pitched well. But we're looking for the Boston offense (5th in scoring) to break out against him. The Red Sox are 11-2 vs. the Rangers since 2017, winning six of the last seven meetings. Sale is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Texas. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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06-09-19 | Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER It's do-or-die for the Bruins, who are facing elimination here. Each of the first three rounds saw the Blues clinch here on home ice. So history is on their side, although they've gone just 6-6 at the Enterprise Center this postseason. Three of the first five games in this series have gone Over, but it's important to note that two of them only went Over because of late goals on an empty net. Game #5 was the lowest scoring affair of the entire series with St. Louis winning 2-1. We had the Under there and will play this one the same as six of the last eight games have seen the Blues allow two or fewer goals. The Bruins top line may have accounted for 106 points in the regular season and 55 in the playoffs, but they have just two assists the last two games. Blues goalie Jordan Binnington had 38 saves in Game #5. For Boston, Tuukka Rask still has a .937 save percentage in the playoffs. Play UNDER Boston-St. Louis AAA |
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06-09-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -155 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHICAGO The Cubbies are going for the sweep tonight and should get it behind Kyle Hendricks, who has pitched very well this season, particularly when at home. Hendricks has a 1.71 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in six starts at Wrigley, not to mention he's got a 3.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts overall. Pitching well at Wrigley Field is nothing new for Hendricks as he's 29-17 here with a 2.64 ERA in 72 starts. The Cardinals have been a favorable opponent for him too. In 15 career starts against them, Hendricks is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Hendricks isn't the only Cub performing well at home though. The team is 23-11 at Wrigley this season, winning five of its last six games here. The Cardinals are 0-5 at Wrigley this season as the home team has won all eight previous games between these two in 2019. Adam Wainwright goes for St. Louis. He pitched very well last weekend (at home) vs. the Cubs, but also threw a season-high 126 pitches and had seven walks. We don't suspect to see him hold the Cubs scoreless tonight. Cubs win, Cubs win. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-08-19 | Nationals -157 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON San Diego has rallied to defeat Washington each of the past two days, winning by identical scores of 5-4. In many ways, these last two games closely mirror the kind of seasons the teams are having. Washington has been really disappointing, never more so than when Max Scherzer takes the mound. Despite putting up his usually strong numbers, Scherzer is somehow left with a 3-10 team start record. That changes for the better tonight. The Padres are an opponent Scherzer has pitched well against in the past (2.37 ERA in 10 starts). Back on April 26th, he held them to two runs and four hits and struck out 10 in seven innings. But like last night, the Nationals bullpen allowed the game to get away. Hopefully that doesn't happen again here because Scherzer should have his team in position to win. The last three starts from Scherzer have seen him allow just two runs and he's lasted 20 innings. San Diego only averages 3.8 runs/game at home, which won't be enough to support Eric Lauer here. Lauer has pitched well for San Diego, but let's not forget Washington had won 9 of 11 coming into this series. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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06-08-19 | Pedro Munhoz v. Aljamain Sterling -140 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Sterling Sterling (17-3) is finally living up the hype as he's on an impressive three-fight win streak. For awhile there, he was falling in love with his striking. But in these last three fights, he's remembered "who he is" and returned to being a dominant grappler. Ironically, "The Funk Master" may be more inclined to keep this fight standing as he goes up against the submission expert Munhoz. While it was a first round TKO in his last fight, Munhoz (18-3) absorbed a lot of punishment for just one round. He too is on a three-fight win streak, but we believe it's Sterling that's more likely to emerge victorious at UFC 238 as he's the better all-around fighter. Play on Aljamian Sterling AAA |
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06-08-19 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Pittsburgh-Milwaukee The Brewers really beat up on the Pirates Friday night, winning 10-4. They figure to put up a lot more runs this weekend against this beleaguered Pittsburgh staff. In their last 10 games, the Pirates have given up 10 or more runs FIVE times. Not good. Nor are the numbers of Saturday starter Jordan Lyles. His last three outings have produced a 7.47 ERA. One of those was against Milwaukee (the last one) and he gave up four runs in six innings. Lyles again goes up against Zach Davies, who got the better of him last Sunday. Davies went eight innings in the 4-2 win. But the last time he started at Miller Park was a a disaster as he allowed six runs in three innings. If there is a saving grace for Pittsburgh, it's that the Brewers have given up 7.1 runs/game over the past week. Also, Davies has a 5.40 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. Pittsburgh. But Milwaukee is hitting .300 in five games against Pirates pitching this year, hitting 14 home runs and scoring 41 runs. The Over is now 26-8-1 the Pirates last 34 games. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Milwaukee AAA |
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06-08-19 | Sparks v. Lynx OVER 149.5 | Top | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Los Angeles-Minnesota Minnesota is 4-1 straight up, but has gone 0-2-1 ATS the last three games including the lone SU loss, which was in Seattle. The Lynx are the top defensive team in the WNBA right now as they are giving up 67.8 points/game. But they were shredded in that lone loss, letting the Storm shoot almost 60 percent and score 84 points. Thursday was a nice bounce back as the Lynx allowed only 56 points in a two-point win over Phoenix. We look for this to be a lot higher scoring than that game. The Sparks are Minnesota's long time rival and have scored at least 70 points in all four of their games. Problem is they've also allowed at least 70 in every game. Twice they've given up more than 80. They allowed a season-worst 89 in Thursday's loss to Connecticut. Play OVER Los Angeles-Minnesota AAA |
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06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE The Royals beat the White Sox last night and we believe they're more than capable of doing the same today. Just to be safe, we'll grab them on the run line though. After all, KC's record in one-run games is a very poor 4-12. Playing the run line will cover us were that situation to arise. Friday's win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Royals while sending Chicago to its third straight defeat. There's been no better pitcher for the White Sox than Lucas Giolito, who gets the starting nod here. The team is 9-2 in his 11 starts this season, including 7-0 the L7. The majority of those games have been low-scoring though, which again brings the +1.5 possibly into play. Chicago is only 12-19 on the road and 10-21 in day games, so even with Giolito on the mound, it seems like a good time to fade them. Brad Keller has been fairly solid for Kansas City in 2019 and has faced the White Sox three times already. He's allowed a total of six runs in 18 innings. Only one of those was at home though and he threw seven scoreless frames. Play KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE AAA |
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06-07-19 | Mariners v. Angels -170 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES Thursday was the worst kind of loss for Seattle as they had to go 14 innings just to come up a run shy. It's been that kind of season as they are now 13-38 the last 51 games and in last place. The Angels also came up short last night, but at least they get to stay home where they have a winning record. This will be the second weekend in a row that these AL West foes are facing off. Last weekend saw LA win two of three up in Seattle. Both offenses are capable of putting runs on the board, but the Angels have a clear pitching edge heading into Friday's opener. Andrew Heaney started a game in last weekend's series and allowed three runs in six innings. He also struck out 10. The Angels won 6-3. Marco Gonzales also started a game in last weekend's series for Seattle. His experience did not go as well. He gave up 10 runs in what was easily his worst game of the year. That said, he allowed eight runs in the start before that. So things aren't going well right now for Gonzales .. or the Mariners as a whole. That continues tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State's string of less than enthralling performances continued in Game #3 as they lost 123-109. The defeat of course comes with some major caveats, those being the absences of both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (not to mention reserve Kevon Looney as well). The seriously short-handed Warriors ended up shooting just 39.6% from the field (a playoff low) and really had no answer for Toronto defensively, allowing them to shoot 52.4% from the field and make 17 three-pointers. We look for the Warriors to rebound in Game #4. Thompson will be back after missing a playoff game for the first time in his career. Toronto isn't going to shoot that well again as all five starters were in double figures as was reserve Fred Van Vleet. Remember that they shot just 37.2% in Game #2 after being right above 50% in Game #1. Steph Curry went for 47 points in Game #3, but won't need to match that production with Thompson back in the lineup. The Warriors are 13-5 ATS off their previous 18 ATS defeats and have dropped consecutive games in the playoffs just once, both coming in Houston. They have never dropped consecutive home playoff games under Kerr, so we will lay the points Friday. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Toronto-Golden State The Warriors have scored exactly 109 points in all three games in this series. That's under their season average and can easily be explained by a number of factors. Kevin Durant hasn't played at all. Klay Thompson missed Game #3. The team still scored the same number of points even minus Thompson because Steph Curry went for 47 on Friday. That was his all-time playoff high and we wouldn't look for a repeat of that performance. Nor shall we look for a repeat of what Toronto did offensively in the last game. They shot 52.6% with all five players scoring in double figures (plus reserve Van Vleet) and they made 17 three-pointers. The last time the Raptors were off a win, they came back and shot 37.2% and were 11 of 38 from three-point land. Assuming they see a major drop in scoring here, you also have to figure Golden State won't top 109 points here either. Only four times in the playoffs has a Raptors opponent scored more than that. The Under is 6-2 the last 8 times Toronto has been off a double digit win. Play UNDER Toronto-Golden State AAA |
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06-07-19 | Braves -183 v. Marlins | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 6* Play on ATLANTA Braves should roll tonight in Miami. The acquisition of Dallas Keuchel is making some think Atlanta is now the "front runner" in the NL East, but it's another starter in the rotation that grabbed my attention here and that's Mike Soroka, who is off to a blistering start to his rookie campaign. Soroka hasn't lost a decision in eight starts, going 6-0 with some really impressive numbers. He had a 0.79 ERA in May and his last start, which was still a win, was the first time he allowed more than a single earned run all year. Tonight he faces the lowest scoring team in the NL and Miami is starting Jose Urena, who is 2-7 lifetime vs. Atlanta with a 6.07 ERA. The Marlins have gone 7-3 L10, but are facing an opponent they are just 1-5 against this year and 14-30 against since 2017. The Braves swept the series in their first visit to Miami this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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06-07-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -126 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on CHICAGO The Cubs enter Friday tied with the Brewers for the division lead in the NL Central. They lost yesterday, 3-1 to Colorado, which ended a three-game win streak. Their next opponent, St. Louis, arrives at Wrigley Field riding its win streak. The Cardinals have won 5 of 6, including a 3-1 decision over Cincinnati at home yesterday afternoon. Key to this series opener is venue. The Cubs have been a strong home team so far, going 21-11 at the Friendly Confines and also allowing just 3.7 runs per game. It just so happens that the Cardinals are not particularly strong on the road (10-15 record) and that's especially the case with tonight's starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has pitched very well at Busch Stadium this year (2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP), but the road has been a different story (7.66, 1.79). This will be Mikolas second straight time facing the Cubs as he led his team to a 2-1 victory back on May 31st. He'll be opposed by Cole Hamels, whose last start also came in that series and he led the Cubs to a win by going seven innings and allowing only an unearned run and two hits. Hamels has a 4-1 TSR at Wrigley this season. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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06-06-19 | Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER St. Louis-Boston The Stanley Cup Finals are finally back on Thursday with the series knotted up at two games apiece after St. Louis took Game #4 (at home) by a score of 4-2. While three of the previous four games have gone Over (Game #2 being the exception), two of them went Over late. In Game #1, it was an empty-netter in the final two minutes from Boston. In Game #4, St. Louis did the same. Hopefully, we won't be in a position where either goalie gets pulled tonight, but no matter what we're taking the Under for Game #5. Boston simply isn't getting a lot of shots on goal in this series with only 23, 24 and 23 the last three games. What they do have though is goalie Tuukka Rask and he has a .937 save percentage in the playoffs. They may not have their captain, Zdeno Chara, tonight. The defenseman sustained what has been reported to be a broken jaw in the last game. Not to be overlooked is Blues goaltender Binnington (2.52 GAA, .909 save percentage in playoffs). Boston is 17-9 to the Under this year after giving up four or more goals the previous game. Play UNDER St. Louis-Boston AAA |
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06-06-19 | Twins v. Indians -108 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND For the Indians, last night's result was definitely worth the wait. A 9-7 win over the Twins was the culimination of a somewhat tumultuous day that began with originally scheduled starter Carlos Carrasco getting scratched due to an unspecified blood condition. On top of that, it was a rainy day in Cleveland and the game was delayed for 1 hour & 43 minutes in the top of the seventh. At the time, the Indians trailed 6-5. Minnesota would score again after the delay, but Cleveland then answered with three of their own to take the lead for good. It was a game the home team once trailed 5-1. They've now beaten the Twins two straight and had Carrasco not been scratched yesterday, we would also be 2-0 in the series (had Cleveland Tuesday). Don't be worried about the fact Cleveland used seven relievers yesterday because Trevor Bauer goes today and he should give the bullpen a break. Yes, Bauer is 0-4 his last six starts. But there have been some bad breaks, like his defense committing four errors his last time out, leading to four unearned runs. The Twins' Jose Berrios has a 4.00 ERA in eight previous starts vs. Cleveland. He shut them out on Opening Day, but it'll be a much different story here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-06-19 | Yankees -183 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the YANKEES The Yankees have been ambushed the last two days, losing to the Blue Jays by scores of 4-3 and 11-7. Seven runs scored by Toronto across the seventh and eighth innings last night were the difference as NY has now lost three straight games for the first time since early April. They'd won nine straight series before coming to Toronto and now they're in a position where they're just trying to avoid getting swept. Having a real opportunity to "tee off" against Jays starter Edwin Jackson, we see the Yanks getting the W tonight. Jackson has some really ugly numbers coming into today. It's not that he's 2-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 21 previous starts vs the Yankees, although that certainly isn't good. It's that in four starts this season, Jackson has a 13.23 and 2.20 WHIP. A case can be made that he's the least effective starter in any rotation in baseball right now after getting hammered for 17 runs in his last two starts. Toronto has lost all four games that he has started. The Yankees J.A. Happ has a 5-0 team start record on the road and has looked really good in his last two starts, surrendering just four runs with 15 strikeouts. The Blue Jays are a light-hitting team at home with a .211 batting average. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Cincinnati-St. Louis These teams got washed out on Wednesday, so the pitching matchup of DeSclafani vs. Hudson has been moved back a day. Hudson had a strong May for St. Louis, posting a 2.80 ERA in six starts. But there are signs that his recent rash of success (3-0 TSR L3) may not last. First off, he has a 1.59 WHIP overall. That means he's putting a lot more runners on base than he should. The WHIP is even higher at home where the Over has gone 3-1-1 his past five turns. DeSclafani has been the least effective member of the Reds rotation so far as he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He'd allowed three home runs in back to back starts before losing to the Pirates 7-2 on May 29th. He finished with a 5.59 ERA in May. The Over is 4-1 his last five division starts and a perfect 4-0 the last four times he's gone up against St. Louis. Play OVER Cincinnati-St. Louis AAA |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The bodies are certainly starting to pile up for Golden State. Already without Kevin Durant, they've now lost reserve forward Kevon Looney for the remainder of this series and Klay Thompson is injured too. Though Thompson has vowed to play in Game #3, we still don't like the idea of the Warriors laying this many points to a revenge-minded and healthy Raptors squad. Toronto has been the underdog five times in the playoffs. They've won three of the games straight up and it should have been four (blown Gm 1 lead vs. Milwaukee). They'll shoot better than 37.2% from the field here (FG% from Game 2), that's for sure. Golden State has been down by double digits in five straight games now. They're the ones who will struggle to score here, not just because they aren't close to 100 percent, but also because the Raptors play great defense. They held Golden State under their season average in Games 1 & 2. There have been only four games this entire postseason run where they've allowed more than 109 points. So taking the points would seem ideal here. Golden State is also 1-7-1 ATS off its last nine straight up victories. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER SF-METS Talk about your misleading final scores. The Giants won here at Citi Field Tuesday night, beating the Mets by a score of 9-3. But that game went 10 innings. They scored as many runs in the top half of the final inning as were scored in the previous nine frames - combined. Even though last night's starting pitching matchup (Bumgarner vs. Syndergaard) was more "marquee", we look for tonight's game to end up lower scoring. Things were certainly on a low-scoring trajectory for most of the game last night. San Francisco has now won three straight, scoring eight runs or more in every game, but let's not forget it wasn't that long ago that they couldn't score more than four runs in a game (six straight). The Mets offense hasn't done much recently either. But it'll help having Jason Vargas starting. He has a 1.80 ERA at home. He has a 2.12 ERA in five previous starts vs. the Giants. He's allowed exactly one run in five of his previous six starts. Tyler Beede is making just his third career start here for San Francisco. He pitched well in the last one, giving up only one run to the Marlins in seven innings. Play UNDER Giants-Mets AAA |
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06-05-19 | White Sox v. Nationals -174 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
7* Play on WASHINGTON This is a situation where the Nationals should roll. They beat the White Sox on Tuesday, 9-5, which was their third consecutive victory overall. It wasn't necessarily easy as on his way to career win #100, Stephen Strasburg spotted Chicago an early 9-0 lead. But Strasburg was picked up by his offense and the Sox didn't score again after the 2nd inning. Wednesday starter Anibal Sanchez hasn't needed much help from the Nationals hitters of late as he is off what could easily be called his best start of the season so far. Retiring the first 16 batters that he saw, Sanchez allowed only one hit in six innings against his former team (Atlanta). He now has a 2.53 ERA his last five starts overall. Dylan Covey goes here for the visitors. While he too looked good the last time he pitched, before that was a very different story. Covey had gone 0-10 in 14 starts dating back to last season. With last night's loss the White Sox fell to a horrible 6-22 their last 28 games in National League stadiums. Remember there's no DH for them. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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06-04-19 | Phillies v. Padres -158 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -158 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO We were on Philadelphia last night, which didn't work out. Our read on the series has changed because of the that result, but rather due to tonight's starting pitching matchup, which greatly favors the home team. San Diego will send out its new ace, Chris Paddack, who would be top three in ERA among NL starters were he to qualify. Paddack needs only 3 2/3 more innings to qualify, so he'll be on the leaderboard after today as he should rebound from his worst career start. That start came against the Yankees last Wednesday as he allowed three solo home runs. Despite this, opponents are still only batting .170 off Paddack and he has a 0.82 WHIP with 62 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. He's averaging nearly 10 K's per nine innings and should regain past form here against a Phillies lineup that has managed to score only eight runs during a five-game losing streak. It was 8-2 San Diego last night and the way Jerad Eickhoff has pitched lately isn't likely to turn the tide for Philly. Eickhoff has allowed four or more runs in his last four starts. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-04-19 | Rockies v. Cubs -185 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the CUBS Colorado comes into Wrigley Field riding an eight-game win streak. Look for that to end Tuesday. They're going against Kyle Hendricks, who has a 1.29 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in five previous starts at Wrigley. The Cubs have won almost two-thirds of their home games so far (19-10) and allow only 3.6 runs per game here. The Rockies hitters are of course being taken out of their element, that element being Coors Field where they are averaging 6.3 runs per game. That number drops down to 4.6 on the road where they are 3-7 this year at +125 or higher. The entirety of this eight-game win streak took place at home. We don't think Jared Hoffman is the answer either as Tuesday's starter has given up 12 runs and 20 hits in 15 innings. He's also allowed three home runs in his last two starts. We're not concerned about the fact the Cubs played yesterday and the Rockies had off as it was an easy 8-1 victory for the home team over the Angels. If anything, that should create some momentum. This is a big revenge game for the Cubs too after losing last year's NL Wild Card Game to the Rockies, 2-1, here in Wrigley. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers -170 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -170 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has surpassed Chicago for first place in the NL Central and could not have asked for an easier series to start the new week as they are drawing Miami at home. While the Marlins have played better of late (5-2 last 7 games), they still have the worst record in the National League and are dead last in runs scored, way behind the rest of the pack. Chase Anderson starts tonight for the Brewers and should handle MLB's weakest lineup with relative ease. Anderson has allowed no more than three runs in any of his five starts thus far. He's also worked out of the bullpen, but seems better suited as a starter. Speaking of better suited, Miami pitcher Lopez seems far better suited pitching at home than on the road. At home, we're talking a 1.84 ERA in five starts. On the road, it's an 8.26 ERA in six starts. To be clear, this game is in Milwaukee where the Brewers have gone 8-3. They've also captured 36 of their last 51 series openers, no matter where the game is played. Not surprisingly, the Marlins have won just once in Lopez's six road starts. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-04-19 | Giants v. Mets -140 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS It's Bumgarner vs. Syndergaard here, still a marquee pitching matchup even though the two have combined to produce an 0-5 TSR since May 19th. Syndergaard has had a few rocky outings this year, but looked better in his start which saw him go six innings and allow only three runs to the Dodgers. The bullpen blew that game in spectacular fashion, which has also happened to Bumgarner in his last two starts. The Mets have been floundering recently, going 1-4 their last five games. That has them three games under .500 for the year, but they are 15-9 at home. Meanwhile, the current state of the Giants is just not good. They do enter this series having won two straight. But that was against Baltimore, the worst team in baseball. Overall, in six games vs. Baltimore and Miami (two worst teams), San Francisco was able to go only 3-3. They have the NL's 2nd worst record and worst run differential. They simply lack the offense necessary to beat Syndergaard on the road. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-04-19 | Twins v. Indians -129 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND The Indians trail the Twins by 11.5 games right now, a stunning deficit that no one would have though possible at the start of the season. Minnesota has been the biggest surprise in baseball so far, racing to the best record in baseball and scoring the most runs. But we think it speaks volumes that Cleveland is still the betting favorite for Tuesday's game - as they should be - at home. Shane Bieber survived a rocky outing last week in Boston as the Indians won 14-9. He'll pitch better here as the team is 5-1 with him on the mound at Progressive Field. Bieber's last two starts here have resulted in a complete game shutout (with 15 strikeouts) and five more innings where he allowed just one run against Tampa Bay (and had 10 more strikeouts). So that's just one run allowed in his last 14 innings pitched here at home with 25 strikeouts. Smeltzer for Minnesota has made just one big league start previous to this and while he didn't give up any runs, he remains an unproven commodity for a team - and pitching staff - that has clearly overachieved to this point. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-03-19 | Phillies -128 v. Padres | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies look to rebound from an ugly weekend sweep (at the hands of the Dodgers) here in San Diego where they'll face a Padres team that has its own set of problems right now. The Padres are now playing sub-.500 ball at home this season after dropping both games over the weekend to Miami. They actually trailed 9-1 entering the ninth inning of yesterday's game. Each clubs will be sending one of its hotter starters to the mound for Monday's opener as Aaron Nola goes for Philly and Eric Lauer goes for SD. Nola is 6-0 in 2019, including 4-0 his last 5 starts. Over his last three starts, Lauer has a 3-0 team start record and a 1.50 ERA. But his season numbers aren't as strong as Nola's are. Also, Nola has a strong track record vs. the Padres while Lauer has never previously faced the Phillies. Nola has faced the Padres five times in his career and produced a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP. The two times he started here in San Diego both went well. The Phillies have also won the last eight times Nola has started against a team from the National League West. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 107 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER LA-ARIZONA The Dodgers and Diamondbacks last met in March, the very first series of the year. All four of those games went Over and the Dodgers won three of them, scoring at least eight runs in every victory. But the series was also played at Chavez Ravine where LA has been almost unstoppable this year. Case in point, the Dodgers just swept Philly at home this past weekend, scoring 18 runs in three games. On the road, the Dodgers scoring average does go down to 5.1 runs/game and in games started by lefties it drops to 4.4 per game. They face a lefty on the road today in Robbie Ray, who just so happens to have had the "Dodgers number" in his career. Ray is 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 prior starts vs. LA. But starting opposite Ray will be Walker Buehler. Buehler still has a 1.09 WHIP (5th best in NL) even after giving up five runs in his last start, which was highly uncharacteristic. He has allowed no more than three earned runs in 8 of his 11 starts this year. The Under is 9-3-1 his last 13 starts vs. the NL West. Play UNDER Los Angeles-Arizona AAA |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues -110 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS We look for the Blues to bounce back after their dreadful showing in Game #3. Things quickly got out of hand Saturday night with Boston taking a 3-0 lead in the 1st period. They only escalated from there. Seven Bruins scored. They were 4 for 4 on the power play ... on only four shot attempts. For the first time in his career, rookie Jordan Binnington was chased from the game (he gave up the first five goals). It was basically a worst case scenario for a team hosting its first Stanley Cup Finals game since 1970. We just can't see St. Louis playing any worse and given the resiliency we've seen from them throughout the playoffs, expect them to win in Game #4. Remember the Blues had the fewest points in the league on January 2nd. Now they are three wins away from winning the Stanley Cup. Off a loss this postseason, the Blues are 5-1 with the one loss coming in overtime. No way they lose both games at home, right? Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-St. Louis The Under is 4-1 the last five times St. Louis has been off a loss. This includes Game #2 of this series. Jordan Binnington cannot possibly be worse than he was in Game #3 when he was chased after giving up five goals on just 19 shots. Nor are the Bruins likely to go 4 for 4 on the power play ... on only four shot attempts ... again. That's the good news for St. Louis. The bad news is that they must still find a way to beat Tuukka Rask, who continues to be exceptional in goal for the Bruins. Rask has a .939 playoff save percentage. In the last 16 games, Boston has given up more than two regulation goals just TWICE. Of course, St. Louis has been stingy in its own right, the last game aside. They've allowed two goals or less in 8 of their last 11 games. The Under had been 5-0 in Boston's last five road games before Game #3. St. Louis is 8-1 Under after giving up five or more goals in the last game. Play UNDER Boston-St. Louis AAA |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto probably surprised a lot of people by winning Game 1, but not us. They had the home court advantage and with Golden State playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors were ripe for the picking. Look for the Raptors to continue to ratchet up the defense here as they are giving up less than 97 points/game at home in the playoffs and there have been just eight games total where they've allowed more than 100 points. Game 1 was one of them, but that's to be expected vs. the Warriors. Still, without Durant, Golden State was held below its season average in scoring. They have lost all three games to Toronto this season, two of them taking place in Canada. The Raptors have covered the spread in their last four home games and last five games overall. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on UNDER Red Sox-Yankees The Yankees go for the sweep Sunday night and if they pull it off, that means they'd be 5-0 against the Red Sox this year. That's a big reason why the teams are "at where they're at" in the AL East standings. In four games vs. Yankees, Boston has scored just seven runs. They lost 5-3 on Saturday, the 4th time in 4 games that the Under hit with these rivals on the field. Look for the Under trend to continue tonight on "Sunday Night Baseball" (on ESPN) even though we have two veteran pitchers starting that the opponents know well. David Price didn't pitch well against the Yankees last year, but he also has not permitted a single earned run in his last 11 2/3 innings of work. Going back seven starts, he's not allowed more than three any time out. CC Sabathia goes for the Yankees, certainly not his first time starting opposite Price. He's also coming off a short stint on the DL. Over his last eight starts vs. Boston, Sabathia is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA. So the timing is right for his return. The Under is 34-16-2 in Boston's last 52 Sunday games. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees AAA |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres -177 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -177 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* Play on SAN DIEGO San Diego should win very easily here. They did lose Saturday's game, 9-3, to fall to .500 at home for the season. But Miami, despite going 10-5 its last 15 games, could only wish it was even sniffing .500. The Marlins are still only 20-36 and have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. We like Strahm, who starts today for the Padres. After giving up five runs in his first start of the year, he hasn't given up more than three in any of the last nine. His last one, which was against the Yankees, saw him allow all three in just one inning. He has a 2.53 ERA those last nine starts with an opponents batting average of .220. Trevor Richards, the starter today for Miami, is on a somewhat similar trajectory with three consecutive quality starts. But he'd been winless before that with a 4.46 ERA. Not to mention, the Marlins lost his first eight starts this season! They are still 1-9 his last 10 road starts. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-02-19 | Astros v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Oakland After winning with the Under in this matchup on Friday, we made the mistake of going with the Over last night. Houston's lineup did its job, scoring five runs, but Justin Verlander proved to be too tough for the Oakland hitters as he held them to just one run (a solo HR) over eight innings. Let's then go back to the Under today. This, even though Khris Davis returned Saturday for Oakland. He's their best hitter, but not enough alone to overcome Gerritt Cole, who silenced the Cubs in his last start. He held the Cubbies to just two runs and three hits, also finishing with 12 strikeouts. Cole, a native Californian, is 10-3 all-time pitching in the Sunshine State (including 2-0 here). Let'ss not forget Houston is without several big names in its every day lineup too, such as Correa, Altuve and Springer. That'll make the job easier here for Oakland starter Chris Bassit, who already has a 2.81 career ERA vs. the Astros. A quick note on the A's hitters here. Their only three runs in this series have all come on solo home runs. Davis was 0 for 4 in his return yesterday. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA |
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06-01-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Mets-Arizona With deGrom vs. Greinke, the automatic response is to take the Under. But with deGrom that would be a bad move as his last three starts have all gone Over. Not all of that is his doing mind you, but it is certainly worth bringing to light. Arizona is stuck in a five-game losing streak, but all but one loss was by one run. Greinke has come out on the short end of two one-run decisions his last two starts and the Diamondbacks are actually only 1-4 the last five times he's started. The one win was the last time he pitched at home when they scored 11 runs. While unlikely to get that many tonight, this is a lineup averaging 5.2 runs/game for the year. With the pitching matchup, the oddsmakers obviously going to set a low total, but it's too low in our eyes as the Over is 6-1 the last seven times the Mets have been off a win. The Over is also 6-2 in Greinke's last eight starts at home. Play OVER NY Mets-Arizona AAA |
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06-01-19 | Astros v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Houston-Oakland We went with the Under in this same matchup yesterday, so why the switch today? Justin Verlander is pitching for the Astros, so he should take care of business, right? Maybe as he's yet to allow more than four runs in any start this year and has allowed no more than 1 eight times. But we also think it's time for this Houston lineup to explode. They've only scored four runs total the last two games. They are averaging more than five per game for the season. Sure the lineup is without some key players right now (Correa, Springer). However, Brett Anderson (starting for Oakland) has a 6.97 ERA in five previous starts vs. the Astros. But the biggest reason we are switching gears here is that the A's should have Khris Davis back in their lineup. That's a gamechanger and their offense should wake up too. The A's previous series (vs. the Angels) was all Overs. Play OVER Houston-Oakland AAA |
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06-01-19 | Bruins v. Blues -111 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS The Blues should feel happy that the escaped Boston with a two-game split. Honestly, they probably feel like they could be up 2-0 as Game #1 did see them take an early two-goal advantage. Game #2 went to overtime with Carl Gunnnarsson providing the game-winner on a delayed penalty. Not sure if the extra day of rest benefits either team here, but we like St. Louis to capture Game #3 at home. Sure, Boston is 6-2 on the road this postseason, winning their last four away games. St. Louis has actually not been a dominant home team, though all three prior series were closed out at the Enterprise Center. All things considered, this is a pretty cheap price on the Blues at home too. They are 18-7 their L25 games as a home favorite, so the the odds are in their favor there. With the price coming down, we say grab the Blues. Play ST. LOUIS AAA |
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06-01-19 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Washington-Cincinnati Safe to say, not many expected the Reds to be better than the Nationals this season. But that's the case entering June as Cincy has the better record. Both teams have losing records mind you, but the Reds have played a lot better than you might think. They've allowed the fewest number of runs among National League teams while Washington is near the very bottom of that list. Yesterday saw the Reds deliver a 9-3 win. It was the 8th time in the last 9 games they finished with 10 or more hits. Their offense is really heating up right now as they've scored at least six runs in 7 of those last 9 games. Tanner Roark will start for them today and he really isn't one of the bigger reasons the Reds have allowed so few runs. He did just hold the Cubs scoreless for five innings in his last start, but his WHIP is above 1.40 this season. Washington is his former team and quite frankly Roark never did really pitch well for them. Speaking of not pitching well, the Nationals are starting Erick Fedde and he has a 5.42 ERA in 21 big league appearances, 16 of them starts. He's made just two starts so far in 2019. Both went pretty well, but were against weak offenses. The Over is 5-0 his last 5 starts overall. Play OVER Washington-Cincinnati AAA |
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05-31-19 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Oakland This figures to be a low-scoring affair as the Astros travel to Oakland to face the Athletics. The A's are in off a high-scoring series vs. the Angels where the Over cashed in all three games. But it's a much better pitching staff that they'll be facing this weekend, starting with Brad Peacock, who has a 0.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. Peacock has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts, the lone exception coming against a Minnesota team that has the top scoring lineup in baseball. Peacock's last four starts have yielded just one run in 23 innings! Not to be outdone, Michael Fiers of Oakland has also been great of late. He's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter! Fiers has allowed no more than three runs in five consecutive trips to the mound. This shapes up to be a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA |
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05-31-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cleveland-Chicago Trevor Bauer has been shockingly bad for the Indians recently while Dylan Covey has yet to pitch well for the White Sox. Given how last night's game between the two teams went (Chicago won 10-4), the Over seems like a very logical call for Friday. Cleveland has gone Over in five straight going back to Sunday and it had just scored 14 runs on a season-high 18 hits the game before this series got underway. Chicago is riding a season-best four-game win streak and has totaled 18 runs the last two days. Bauer has a 7.41 ERA his past three starts and has given up 29 runs in his last six starts. Covey may have seen the Under hit in each of his last four starts, but his ERA is 5.75 in that time and he allowed four runs in three of those starts. In their last four games, Cleveland has allowed 36 runs the last four games. Play OVER Cleveland-Chicago AAA |
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05-30-19 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Mets-Dodgers It was a downright BRUTAL loss for the Mets last night as they blew an 8-3 lead and lost 9-8 to the Dodgers. LA scored six of its runs in the final three innings, four of them coming in the ninth. The teams combined for 61 total bases in the game, which is a lot. Unlike yesterday, the Mets won't have Noah Syndergaard starting tonight. Instead it will be Jason Vargas who has pitched poorly on the road. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Dodgers have been just awesome offensively, scoring 5.8 runs/game at home (for the season) and 7.1 runs/game the last seven days. They are the NL's highest scoring team. The trick here will be the Mets getting some runs against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has been tremendous in 2019, never allowing more than two runs in any start! He's allowed only two total in his last four starts. But three of those four still went Over (thanks Dodgers offense!) and the Mets are averaging more than six runs per game over the last week themselves. Play OVER Mets-Dodgers AAA |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Golden State-Toronto The Raptors have played unbelievable defense on their way to the NBA Finals. They are giving up less than 100 PPG in the playoffs. In cashing the Under in each of the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, we talked extensively about this. At home, they are giving up slightly less than 96 PPG and it is the Raptors that have the home court advantage in this series. There have been just seven games in the playoffs where Toronto allowed more than 100 points, one was a double overtime game. Take that away and there are only three times they've allowed more than 108. Golden State has plenty of firepower, but will be without Kevin Durant for Game #1. Holding the Bucks in check was a very good sign for the Raptors as the Bucks averaged more points per game than the Warriors. Golden State has given up less than 100 in three of its last six games. In their only regular season visit to Canada, they only scored 93 points though (lost by 20). Play UNDER Golden State-Toronto AAA |
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05-29-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia These teams combined to score seven runs in the first four innings yesterday, but after that it was all zeroes on the scoreboard. The Phillies won 4-3, their 8th win in the last 11 games as they continue to pace the NL East. St. Louis has been a moderate disappointment (1 game under .500), though right now the city's bigger concern lies with the Blues. Still, a 7-17 WL record this month definitely isn't good. Despite what we saw Tuesday, both bullpens can be shaky. The Cardinals blew a game in spectacular fashion Sunday night against Atlanta while the Phillies relivers were hardly stellar in the last series (vs. Milwaukee). Starting here for the home team will be Aaron Nola. The Over is 9-2 in his 11 outings as he started the season pretty poorly. He's settled down his last few times on the mound, but his WHIP is still 1.75 over the last three trips. The Over has cashed each of the last six times Nola has started on five or more days rest. He last pitched on Thursday. St. Louis is going with Genesis Cabrera, who is taking Michael Wacha's spot in the rotation for his big league debut. But it's not like Cabrera was dominant down in the minors as he had a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis. Play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia AAA |
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05-29-19 | Blues v. Bruins -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON The Bruins stormed back from an early two goal deficit to take Game 1, but the team's 8th straight victory was by no means easy. They didn't take the lead until 5:21 into the third period and the final goal came on an empty net (costing us the Over). But one positive sign is they did outshoot the Blues 38-20. Blowing a two-goal lead on the road is a missed opportunity and it's the kind of advantage St. Louis is quite unlikely to enjoy again. Boston is 11-2 its last 13 games and only three of those wins (two in Round 2 vs. Columbus) have been by less than a two-goal margin. They're on an incredible 21-5 run when off a game where they allowed two or less goals. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington has been great for St. Louis, but is likely to be outplayed again by Tuukka Rask, whose save percentage for the playoffs now sits at a remarkable .940. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-29-19 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Cleveland-Boston For Cleveland, it was a case of "good things come to those who wait." They sat out a 1+ hr rain delay last night in Boston and rallied late for a 7-5 victory. They hadn't scored at all prior to the eighth inning and then the bottom of the order delivered a stunning five-run rally in the ninth to win. We had the Over in Monday's game (won 14-5 by the Red Sox), so the Over is 2 for 2 so far in this series. Today it's time to go the other way however as Shane Bieber should certainly keep the Indians competitive while Ryan Weber was certainly impressive in his 1st big league start for the Red Sox. Bieber has 25 strikeouts in the last two starts alone, which have seen him allow only one run in 14 innings. He has a 0.99 WHIP on the road. As alluded to, Weber's debut in the starter's role couldn't have gone any better as he held Toronto to one run and three hits. Let's not forget Cleveland came into this series having scored three runs or less in six straight games. The Under is 6-0 in Bieber's last six starts. Play UNDER Cleveland-Boston AAA |
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05-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners -150 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE Texas made a pitching change overnight as it will now be Jesse Chavez starting, but that should hardly matter against a Seattle team that beat them, 6-2, last night. May has been a bad month for the Mariners but they have a chance to end it on a positive note facing a team they have some major revenge to exact upon. Before last night's games, Texas had beaten them five straight times. But that's now a thing of the past as Seattle rediscovered an offense that started out the season so hot. The Mariners still average 5.1 runs/game. Something that must be considered is that while Chavez will be "opening" this game for the Rangers, Seattle will still get to face originally scheduled starter Adrian Sampson, who has a 7.66 ERA this year. Sampson should come in quickly (after an inning or two) following Chavez. The Mariners go with Gonzales, who started the year 5-0. Despite a slide, he still has decent numbers and two starts against the Rangers have seen him give up only two runs in 14 innings. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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05-28-19 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER San Francisco-Miami The Giants and the Marlins have the two worst records in the National League and should already both be considered non-contenders at this points in the season. The Giants bring up the rear in the NL West while the Marlins do the same in the East. Miami's played better of late (7-3 L10) while San Fran has lost five in a row and is coming off what manager Bruce Bochy called "their worst series of the season" as they were swept at home by Arizona and outscored 34-8 in the process. But the Marlins still have scored fewer runs than every other team making it ideal that the G-men are sending out Jeff Samardzija (lowest ERA among team's starting pitchers) today. Samardzija has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this year (10 starts) and never more than four. Miami goes with Trevor Richards, who has pitched better at home than on the road. So it was a really positive sign that Richards allowed just one run in his last start, which came at Detroit. We don't look for either team to score much here. Play UNDER San Francisco-Miami AAA |
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05-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Texas-Seattle These teams just played a three-game series last week in Arlington. As we wrote back then, "a matchup between these teams should almost be an automatic green light to take the Over." Little has changed then to sway our opinion. Yes, two of the three games in that series did stay Under (we won the Over in the opener though) and seven of Seattle's last nine games have stayed Under as well. But that's just some predictable "leveling off" as they are still 36-16-3 Over in all games, the top Over record in baseball. Yesterday's game, when we went against them (10* Game of the Week winner on the Angels) went Over as the final score was 7-6. Now the Mariners are back home where they're giving up 6.5 runs per game. Texas is giving up 5.6 runs per game on the road. Both teams average more than 5.0 runs per game with the Rangers averaging 5.7, which is second most overall. We don't like either starter's chances tonight as this will be the third time Seattle has faced Lance Lynn and second in a week. Same with Texas against Tommy Milone. Both bullpens have ERA's above 5.00. Play OVER Texas-Seattle AAA |
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05-27-19 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Dodgers Runs should be scarce here with a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Kershaw. The former continues to have some poor luck (dating back to last season), but he happened to outduel Max Scherzer last week in a 6-1 win over Washington. DeGrom gave up just one run (a solo HR) and two hits. That was a game where the Mets - now winners of six of their last seven - scored all of their runs in the bottom of the eighth. As for Kershaw, after missing the first few weeks of the season (injured), he has returned as his usual dominant self. The Dodgers have won all seven of his starts and he's posted a 0.98 WHIP. The home team has the edge here due to the game being at Chavez Ravine where they sport a 19-6 record and allow only 3.3 runs/game. The Mets offense usually isn't very good on the road and Kershaw is 8-0 all-time against them (13 starts) with a 1.98 ERA. The Under has also hit the last four times deGrom has pitched in this park. Play UNDER Mets-Dodgers AAA |
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05-27-19 | Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER play on St. Louis-Boston Give credit to St. Louis. They easily could have folded after the controversial "hand pass loss" to San Jose in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Instead they wound up outscoring the Sharks 12-2 the rest of the way and took the series in six games. The Blues have played very well on the road in the playoffs and have won 8 of their last 11 visits to Boston. The Bruins, who are coming off a long layoff, have lost four times at home in the playoffs. But they have also won the last two Game 1's while St. Louis has lost their last two. Our nod is to the Under here as both teams have goaltenders playing superbly. Jordan Binnington for St. Louis has stopped 75 of the last 77 shots he's seen. Boston's Tuukka Rask has been even better as he stopped 109 of the 114 shots he saw in the four-game sweep of Carolina and has a .942 save percentage in the postseason. The Under is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Boston AAA |
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05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cleveland-Boston The Indians are off a dreadful homestand, one in which they finished just 3-7 and two of the wins came against last place Baltimore. Unfortunately, the job gets no easier for the Tribe as they now have to visit Fenway Park for Memorial Day. After their own awful start to the year, the Red Sox have actually surged past Cleveland for the AL's second Wild Card spot, but obviously there's still a long way to go. Today's game should be a lot higher scoring than usual, especially from the Cleveland perspective, as neither team will be sending its best pitcher to the mound. While the Under is 6-0 in starts made by the Indians' Jefry Rodriguez this season, that's generally been due to poor run support. Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, subpar numbers, and allowed nine runs in his last two starts. Boston goes with Porcello and while he's pitched better of late, he's still given up at least one HR in all but two starts. The Over is 8-2 when Porcello pitches. The Red Sox just got done playing three low-scoring games (all Unders) in Houston, but they average 5.6 runs/game at Fenway. Play OVER Cleveland-Boston AAA |
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05-26-19 | Rangers v. Angels -150 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA ANGELS The Angels haven't been very good this season, but we've had a somewhat bizarre ability to call for them to win at the right times. Often, it's been in the final game of a series, at home, when they're looking to avoid getting swept. That's not quite the case today as they did win yesterday, beating Texas 3-2, and now have a chance to take the series. We like them to do so as this is probably a good time to sell high on a Rangers team that had previously won 8 out of its last 9. But we don't think the Rangers are going to be particularly good this year and their offense hasn't done much in recent days. Plus they send a spot starter (Ariel Jurado) to the mound today. The Angels, fresh off a walk-off win, go with Andrew Heaney. This is Heaney's 1st start of the year due to elbow issues. But he looked great in a rehab start down on the farm (Triple-A), striking out 10 in just 4 1/3 innings. He led the team in innings pitched last year and the Angels have won seven of his last nine home starts. Mike Trout has not done much at the plate lately (3 of 18 last five games), but should break out of that slump today. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Colorado It almost seems unfair to stick this terrible Orioles pitching staff in Coors Field. No staff has given up more runs per game (6.1) than Baltimore's and Coors is once again shaping up to be the highest scoring venue in either league. The Rockies are tied for the MLB lead, averaging 6.0 runs/game at home. But they are also dead last in runs allowed at home, giving up 7.0/game. One of the more culpable starters on the Orioles staff has been David Hess, who goes today. Hess has 7.06 ERA in eight starts (6-2 Over) and just allowed nine runs total and three home runs the last time he pitched. We like Rockies starter German Marquez, but even he is not immune to the "Coors effect." He has a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home, which is way up from his numbers on the road (2.08, 0.74). Baltimore's last six games have all gone Over and before that they gave up 10 runs in a shutout loss. It figures to be another very high scoring affair today in Denver where the Over is 10-1 the last 11 games. Play Over Baltimore-Colorado AAA |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the Pirates 10-2 on Friday and should continue to roll here behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been absolutely on fire of late. In his last three starts, Ryu has a 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP as he's thrown 24 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against only two walks. Ryu hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his nine starts this season! He'll face a slumping Pirates team that has looked rather lifeless this week, save for a 14-6 win over Colorado on Thursday. But they got drilled in the first two games of that series as the starting pitching situation here has gotten somewhat dire (due to injuries). They've had to use an opener three times this week, including last night. Here it'll be Joe Musgrove, a regular member of the rotation, but it's not like he's pitched well lately. He's allowed 19 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. The Dodgers have dominated the Pirates through the years, outscoring them 119-56 the last three seasons while going 15-2 overall. That includes a 5-0 record with Ryu on the mound. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 212 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Bucks-Raptors We were all over the Under in the last game, which was our *10* NBA Total of the Year. It cashed by double digits and that wasn't a surprise to us at all. But what did catch most by surprise was the fact Toronto won the game 105-99. The Raptors have now taken the last three straight games and have a chance to eliminate Milwaukee tonight. It figures to be another low-scoring affair considering the defense both teams are capable of playing. The Raptors are allowing just under 100 points/game in the playoffs and at home they're allowing an even 96 points/game. Remember though that number would be even lower if not for the 2 OT game earlier in this series where they held the Bucks to ... 96 points in regulation. Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency in the regular season and only two times in the entire playoffs have they allowed a field goal percentage above 43.2! The Under had been 14-4 when the Bucks were off a SU loss coming into this series. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto AAA |
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05-25-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Seattle-Oakland Let's try this again. Seattle & Oakland failed to go Over yesterday (as we'd predicted them to) and that makes it three straight Unders for the Mariners, which is actually unprecedented this season. In a year where they are 35-15-3 in all games, at no point have the Mariners gone Under in three straight ... until now. Yesterday was actually just the second time they'd come in off two straight Unders! They still lost for a 4th straight time last night, 6-2, increasing their MLB-worst runs allowed to 315 for the season. Despite 10 hits, they could only manage two runs. Today should be a higher-scoring affair. While A's pitcher Michael Fiers' recent numbers are strong, thanks to a no-hitter he tossed against Cincinnati on May 7th, he still carries an overall ERA of 5.21. He has a 6.36 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. Seattle, which includes a 6-5 loss in his last start. Oakland is averaging 7.4 runs/game during its seven-game win streak and should again find success vs. Seattle's Kikuchi, whom they homered three times off of back on May 13th. Kikuchi's last three starts have all gone Over. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA |
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05-24-19 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Texas-LA Angels Very different is how the last series went for these AL West teams. Texas swept Seattle (at home), making it seven wins in the past eight games. Los Angeles was swept (at home) by Minnesota. They've lost 6 of 8. But it's a break for the Angels on Friday, at least for the hitters, going against Drew Smyly. The Rangers starting pitcher has a 6.26 ERA and 1.74 WHIP and those numbers get downright ugly on the road (10.81 ERA, 2.70 WHIP). Granted, it was just one start. But Smyly's overall body of work tells us not to expect a quality start. He's actually yet to deliver one of those as he hasn't pitched longer than five innings in any start. The Angels Griffin Canning is off the best of his four starts so far, seven shutout innings of three-hit ball, but that was against Kansas City. Texas is averaging 5.8 runs/game, second most in baseball. But they also are giving up 5.5 runs/game. Angels home games have been pretty high scoring too as they average 5.3 runs per game but also give up 5.1. The Over is 20-6-1 following an off day for the Rangers. Play OVER Texas-LA Angels AAA |
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05-24-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Oakland It is pretty crazy to think the Mariners started the season by winning 13 of their first 15 games. Since then, no team has a worse record. It's been 27 losses in the last 37 games for Seattle as they were just swept by Texas. Given how hot Oakland has been (six straight wins), the weekend doesn't exactly shape up nicely. Seattle is now giving up 5.9 runs per game. That's second most overall. The last seven games have seen that number skyrocket to 8.1 per game. Over the same time, the A's are scoring 7.0 runs per game. Starting for Seattle, Wade LeBlanc does not appear to be the man fit for the job tonight. He has a 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP and good for us is that all four starts have gone Over. They haven't just gone Over, they've flown Over with an average of almost 19 total runs per game scored! The A's are starting Mengden, whose only other home start yielded four runs in 5 1/3 innings. Seattle can still score. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Over is 35-14-3 in all of their games. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Atlanta-St. Louis Atlanta has played well of late, winning seven of nine. They wrapped up a 4-game series in San Francisco (won 3 of 4) yesterday by winning 5-4. St. Louis did not play Thursday and has won just three times in its previous nine games. But at home, we expect the Cardinals bats to "wake up" today, much in the same way they did the last time they faced Atlanta. These teams just played down in Atlanta last week and the Cards opened that series by scoring 14 runs in the opener. They did so mostly at the expense of the same pitcher they'll see today, Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled mightily since returning from injury. Foltynewicz gave up eight runs in that last start vs. St. Louis and has an 0-5 team start record with a 6.91 ERA. The Cardinals go with Mikolas, who has pitched well at home, but has also lost his last two starts. His last one was a real disaster as he failed to get out of the second inning before allowing seven runs. The Over is 3-0-1 the last four times St. Louis had the previous day off. Play OVER Atlanta-St. Louis AAA |
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05-24-19 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland We had the Over on this matchup yesterday. The Rays won 7-2, getting four home runs and one of them (an inside the park job) was pretty indicative of how Cleveland has played of late. The inside the park HR, the first allowed by the Indians since '08, saw two outfielders collide. Three runs scored and it was pretty much over from there. It was the Indians 4th straight loss, all of them coming here at Progressive Field. Perhaps even more embarrassing is that they could do little against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who wound up going a career-high 7 1/3 innings as Indians hitters were totally ineffective. Par for the course we're afraid as the Tribe are near the bottom of the American League in runs scored. Today they have to face Blake Snell, which likely means another tough night at the plate. Snell, last year's Cy Young winner, has a 1.53 ERA and 0.79 WHIP his last three times out. Tampa Bay doesn't figure to score as many here either as they won't get the gift that was the three-run inside-the-park HR. Their hitters also have to contend with Shane Bieber, who has a sub 1.00 WHIP on the year. Bieber went the distance in his last start, striking out 15 and allowing only five hits. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee The last three games of this series have all gone Over. Game #3 shouldn't have of course (2 OT's), but that's all water under the bridge now. The series is even at two games each as the home team has gone a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread. Milwaukee should probably feel a little fortunate in that - save for Game #2 - they've been trailing most of the way. They were blown out in Game #4, 120-102, which was the most points allowed in any game by the Bucks this entire playoffs (yes, even the 2 OT game). Now we head to back to Milwaukee though. The Bucks have played seven home games in the playoffs. They've allowed more than 103 points only once. Let us not forget that this was the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season as well. Toronto is also more than capable of turning it on defensively. In the first two rounds there were only three three games where they surrendered more than 100 points. Milwaukee may have topped 100 in all four games in this series, but the Raptors can still slow them down. Problem is Kawhi Leonard is hurt, they averaged just 101.5 points the first two games in Milwaukee and the bench isn't going to shoot as well here as it did in Game #4. Powell-Ibaka-Van Vleet went 18 of 36 for 48 points. A repeat of that will not happen on the road. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 19 times the Bucks have been off a loss. It has also cashed 5 of the last 7 times Toronto has been off a win by 10 or more points. Play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-23-19 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland Cleveland catches a major break here in that Tampa Bay decided to push Blake Snell's start back a day. Snell is probably the last pitcher the Indians would want to see, given their current ineptitude at the plate. They should have more luck against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who is being recalled from Triple A to pitch Thursday. While Yarbrough has looked good "down on the farm," that hasn't been the case here in the big show where he has an 8.10 ERA in five prior relief appearances. We had the Over in Cleveland's game yesterday (vs. the A's) and despite them allowing seven runs, it still stayed Under by half a run. Again, the Indians' offense should be more productive today. But the Rays figure to give Cleveland more of a problem than Oakland just did. The A's scored 18 runs in a three-game sweep here at Progressive Field and the Rays are coming off a game where they put eight on the board against the Dodgers (no DH). Tampa's last three games have all gone Over and while they face a pitcher (Adam Plutko) that allowed only one hit in his 2019 debut, it was a home run. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA |
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05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers continue to dig themselves an even deeper hole on what has been an absolutely dreadful homestand. That homestand ends today and they enter the finale with Miami on an eight-game losing streak, all of those games here at Comerica Park. While they were outscored 24-6 in three games by Houston and 28-6 in three games by Oakland, losing twice here to Miami just might be the official "low point" of the 2019 campaign. The Marlins, who have now won five straight and are going for a second straight sweep, nevertheless have the worst record in the whole National League. They have scored 24 fewer runs than the Tigers this season as these are the two lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. We believe the home team is going to come in highly motivated today as it looks to avoid a winless homestand. They did lead 3-0 (after three innings) yesterday. Hope comes in the form of Matthew Boyd for today as he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the year. He's been the team's most reliable starter. His last start was the first time this season that he allowed more than three earned runs (he allowed four). We give him the nod over Miami's Trevor Richards, who just won for the first time all year and has a 1-8 team start record. This will be just the second time the Tigers are higher than -125 on the money line. They won the first. The Marlins are 1-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee The Reds and Brewers went Under again on Tuesday. We use the term "again" because it was the eighth straight meeting to do so, going back to last season. But this time (meaning Tuesday), the Reds won, 3-0. It was Cincy's first win over Milwaukee this season after being swept at home back in early April. It was also their MLB leading seventh shutout. But the first time all season the Brewers were shutout comes with a caveat as they were without Christian Yelich (back spasms). His absence resulted in the team being unable to get any runner past second base the entire game. Now we realize that today's pitching matchup hardly seems like the one to break the trend of Unders when these teams meet. Cincy's Castillo has a 1.90 ERA while Milwaukee's Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under has gone a combined 16-3 in their 19 starts. But, with or without Yelich, I'll call for the Brewers to have a bounce back game at the plate. The Over is 10-3-1 the last 14 times they've been off a game where they scored two runs or less. Castillo is 11-5 Over the last 16 times he's started on five days rest. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee AAA |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on OVER Oakland-Cleveland The Indians have dropped to 1-5 vs. the A's this season after taking back to back losses to open this series. One would have thought this might be a golden opportunity for the Tribe to get some revenge for dropping two of three in Oakland earlier this month as they had Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer start the first two games. But that has obviously not been the case. The A's, now winners of five straight, have scored 39 runs during the course of that win streak. They figure to score plenty more today against the weakest of the three Cleveland starters they'll have faced in the series, Jefry Rodriguez, who just allowed season-highs in both runs and home runs allowed in his previous start. Frankie Montas pitches here for the A's. While he looked good his last time out, that was due to facing a very weak Tigers lineup. The Over is 12-1 in Oakland's previous 13 Wednesday games. Play OVER Oakland-Cleveland AAA |
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05-21-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Arizona-San Diego So the Diamondbacks and Padres failed to go Over yesterday as we predicted they would. It was another pitcher's duel between Luke Weaver and Chris Paddack with the Padres winning 2-1. But tonight's game has an even lower total and a slightly less attractive pitching matchup. Sure, Zack Greinke is involved for Arizona, but he has a 4.08 ERA on the road. He also had to leave his last start with an abdominal strain. While the injury is being downplayed, let's see how he performs moving forward. San Diego's offense may not have done much in recent days and Greinke has given them plenty of trouble through the years. But the Over is 6-0 in Greinke's last six division starts. It's also 5-2 his last seven starts vs. the Padres. San Diego will go with Strahm, who has seen his ERA lowered in six of his last seven starts. He's not allowed more than two runs in any of those seven starts, but he still has a home ERA above 4.00 and his worst start to date came against Arizona, who scored five times off him in just 2 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 runs/game on the road. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |