Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-27-21 | BYU v. Pepperdine UNDER 147 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER BYU has played well of late. The Cougars have won four in a row and eight of their last nine. The lone loss was to Gonzaga. This afternoon they travel to face a Pepperdine team they just beat on Saturday by a score of 65-54. That was the Waves’ fourth loss in their last six games. You’ll note the low-scoring nature of the previous contest as BYU only shot 37.5% that game, but they might as well have “made them all” compared to Pepperdine’s paltry 28.8 FG%. For BYU, it was the second lowest field goal percentage for a game this season. It was Pepperdine’s lowest. Maybe the two teams combined to score more this afternoon, but it still won’t be enough to send this rematch Over the total. The Under is 5-0 in BYU road games as they go from averaging 77.8 points/game at home to 61.3 away from home. The key issue is that they shoot only 28.8% from three-point range on the road. Pepperdine is holding visiting teams to 27.9% from behind the arc this season while at the same time being a poor three-point shooting team. Five of the Waves’ last six games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz -10.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-26-21 | Kings v. Wild -156 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Out in the NHL’s West Division, Minnesota has claimed eight points from its six games so far, winning four and losing two. Their season began in Los Angeles where they won twice, both times in OT by the same score of 4-3. The Kings have managed to go 2-2 since then, splitting at home with Colorado and on the road against St. Louis. They are off their best performance of the season, a six-goal effort where six different players scored. But we don’t expect much from this Kings team - tonight or this season. The Wild have developed a penchant for falling behind in games as they trailed LA 3-1 in the third period in both prior matchups. But look for that to become a thing of the past. We like the Wild’s penalty killing unit, which has been among the best in the league (90%) and it’s just a matter of time before the power play (just 2 of 27!) improves. The Kings have won just twice in their last eight trips to the Twin Cities. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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01-26-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -11 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AKRON Akron comes in at 8-3 on the season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ve been red hot lately, winning and covering four straight. A 78.9 points per game scoring average is impressive and it gets even more impressive when you look at only home games as they are averaging 87.0 in those. Eastern Michigan’s resume is quite different. The Eagles have not won a game away from home this season. They are 1-6 ATS in conference play and have lost four in a row by an average of 20.25 points (0-4 ATS). In the previous four road games, you’re looking at an average of 86.5 points/game allowed. Shockingly, EMU won the first meeting between the teams, 71-59 as a 5.5-point dog. But that was obviously in Ypsilanti. So the revenge factor is strong here and we’ve got every reason to believe this Tuesday night matchup in the MAC turns into a blowout. Credit to Akron for allowing their previous opponents to shoot just 28.9% from three-point range this season. That number probably won’t go up after tonight as EMU is shooting just 28.3% from behind the arc, including a woeful 23.5% when on the road. Akron’s average margin of victory at home is 16.2 PPG. Could these teams be any more different heading into this one? Play on AKRON AAA |
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01-25-21 | Thunder v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-25-21 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 236 | Top | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Brooklyn has gone Over the total in 12 straight games! That is quite the streak and it’s not as if the totals for their games have been low. The average O/U line for Nets games this season is approaching 230.0! They just beat Miami 128-124 on Saturday for their first win since the James Harden trade. As high scoring as things have been here, we look for tonight’s rematch with the Heat to go Under. Miami is really short-handed right now. Friday night saw them able to only score 81 points in a loss to Toronto. So they are definitely capable of keeping this one Under “by themselves.” Bam Adebayo scored 41 by himself on Saturday, but considering that was a career-high, don’t go expecting him to match that performance this evening. There could be as many as five regular rotation players for the Heat out tonight. This is obviously a really high number, but even if the Nets were to score 120, the Heat won’t score enough to allow it to go Over. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-24-21 | Knicks v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-24-21 | San Diego State -17 v. Air Force | Top | 91-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON SAN DIEGO STATE By the time Tuesday rolls around, San Diego State and Air Force will have met in three straight games. Here in Colorado Springs, they are used to see things “flying high,” but in this case it’s the Aztecs who came in and took the first game 98-61 as 13-point favorites. That win snapped a 4-game ATS slide and was a nice bounce back for a team that has just gotten swept the week prior by Utah State. The Mountain West is shaping up as a fairly strong league this year with the likes of Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State plus SDSU. Air Force is simply not in the same class as those teams as they are now 0-5 against them with all five losses coming by double digits. The Falcons have won just one time in the last seven games and aren’t even averaging 60 PPG this season. No team in the country takes fewer shots per game. They’ve also given up 77 or more points in five of the last six losses. San Diego State is excellent defensively and is giving up less than 60 PPG on the road. They’ve covered 14 of the last 17 on the road. Five players were in double figures Thursday as the Aztecs picked it up with leading scorer Matt Mitchell on the shelf. More of the same Sunday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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01-24-21 | Oilers -125 v. Jets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON Edmonton has just four points after six games as they are 2-4. While they were able to salvage splits against Vancouver and Toronto, they were swept by Montreal. Now it's onto Winnipeg where they’ll take on a Jets team that is 4-1 and second in the North Division (all Canadian teams). But the key to the Jets start is the fact they just played Ottawa three straight games and won them all. They were just in the Nation’s capital Saturday, so there’s no rest between games. Yesterday was a late game as is this one. Two of Winnipeg’s wins have been in overtime and yesterday they trailed 3-2 in the third period. They just made a big trade, dealing Patrik Laine to Columbus for Pierre-Luc Dubois. Because of quarantine rules, Dubois isn’t going to be available immediately. Edmonton has promised to shake up the blue line and they are the play here as the Jets record is a little phony. Winnipeg is 3-14 the last 17 times its played a third game in four nights, which is the situation here. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |
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01-24-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor -240 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -240 | 490 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MCGREGOR So this line has shot up, which was probably to be expected, so we’re glad to have gotten down on McGregor early. But the fact he is a very large favorite now doesn’t make McGregor any less likely to win. It only confirms our belief in this fight that he is likely to make short work of an opponent he easily defeated the first time around, needing only 1:46 to take care of business. Maybe this one goes longer, but the result will remain the same and that’s McGregor getting his hand raised. In his only fight of 2020, he won in just 40 seconds against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, so there is no reason to believe there’s any sort of decline. For all the talk about Poirier being “better” this time around, he’s clearly still not on McGregor’s level. Play on MCGREGOR AAA |
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01-23-21 | Jessica Eye v. Joanne Calderwood -111 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CALDERWOOD Two Women’s Flyweights go at it here with #7 Joanne Calderwood taking on #6 Jessica Eye. Calderwood is 14-5 overall in her career with a 6-5 record in UFC while Eye is 15-8 overall and has a losing 5-7 record in UFC. Calderwood lost what was a bad matchup for her the last time out, getting submitted by Jennifer Maia in the first round. She was originally supposed to challenge for the title, but the pandemic scrapped that plan and taking on Maia was unwise in retrospect. But we like her chances of bouncing back against Eye, who is also off a loss and had a particularly rough 2020 dealing with gallbladder surgery and a staph infection. Eye has never beaten a fighter the caliber of Calderwood before and we don’t think it happens now. Play on CALDERWOOD AAA |
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01-23-21 | Warriors +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-23-21 | Canadiens -145 v. Canucks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL Montreal and Vancouver play their third consecutive game on Saturday and you have to wonder if this will be as high scoring as the previous two. The Canucks drew “first blood” on Wednesday, winning 6-5, only for the Canadiens to bounce back with a 7-3 victory on Thursday. Following an off-day, the two Canadian teams are back at it and our money is with the Habs as Vancouver has given up at least three goals in all six of its games and five or more four times. Montreal is 3-0 if they scored 4 or more goals in their last game, which they just did. They’ve secured a point in every game so far, meaning they’ve yet to be beaten in regulation. Tyler Toffoli is dominating his former team with five goals in the two games including a hat trick on Wednesday. The Canucks are 14-30 when facing a team that scored at least five goals in its last game. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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01-23-21 | Duke +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DUKE Duke simply has not been good this year as they are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. Dealing with COVID-19 hasn’t helped and here the Blue Devils hope to avoid an 0-3 road trip when they head to Louisville. The home team has its own problems right now as they’ve also lost two in a row, though the last one came at home to Florida State by 13 points. Only one of these traditional powers can get off the mat Saturday and it’s interesting that this is just the second time this season that Duke is an underdog. We’re seeing value in the number here. This is the first time they’ve lost two straight and you’ve got to think they’ll shoot better as a team here than they did vs. Pitt earlier in the week. Jalen Johnson had a monster effort in that game, going for 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and zero turnovers. Duke is the more talented team here. Louisville does not shoot the three well and actually trailed Florida State 40-16 in the first half on Monday. The road team has won the last two times these schools have faced off. Why can’t it be three in a row? Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-23-21 | NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NC STATE North Carolina State is in desperation mode here as they’re off to an 0-3 start to 2021. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a down year in the ACC and rival UNC isn’t doing much better. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 ATS in ACC play and that includes a 79-76 loss in Raleigh right before Christmas. North Carolina has won four of its last five games straight up, however all of those wins came by seven or less and two were by a combined three points. So this team isn’t winning by any kind of margin right now and we’ll back the underdog. This is NC State’s 1st game in 10 days due to a pair of COVID-19 postponements. Last time we saw them, we faded and boy was that a smart decision as they lost by 32 at Florida State, 105-73 as a 3.5-point underdog. There’s no way to dress that loss up, but we see no reason why the Wolfpack should be getting more points from UNC than they were from FSU. Prior to that season-worst showing, NC State’s last four games had all been decided by five or less. Florida State somehow shot 70.7% against them, something no future opponent will do, including UNC. They’ve beaten the Tar Heels once and can do it again. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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01-23-21 | Auburn v. South Carolina UNDER 155.5 | Top | 109-86 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Auburn comes into this game having covered four straight, but they’ve won straight up just twice in the last seven tries. It was a disappointing 75-73 loss at Arkansas earlier in the week and now they head to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team who is in no better shape. South Carolina has been battling COVID issues all season as coach Frank Martin is just now returning from his second absence. The Gamecocks seemingly are finally healthy now, though they’ve lost two in a row, both on the road. Auburn is also as close to full strength as they’ve been all year with Sharife Cooper having rejoined the lineup on January 9th. Cooper has made the Tigers a more explosive team offensively as they’ve scored 90 or more twice since his arrival. But Martin’s South Carolina teams always seem to give Auburn some trouble. Auburn has lost three in a row here in Columbia - by an average of 13.3 points/game. The Gamecocks are great at defending the three-point line (30.7% allowed), getting rebounds (1st in SEC) and forcing turnovers (16.6 per game). So this could very well be a fairly low-scoring affair. Auburn is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, which helps when playing the Under. The Tigers are 6-2 Under as underdogs this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-22-21 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COL -1.5 (Puck Line) Colorado lost last night in Los Angeles, 4-1. That was a very shocking result when you consider the Avs were -230 on the money line and had just beaten the Kings two days earlier. Now it’s onto Anaheim where they’ll face a Ducks team that has scored a league-low six goals in four games. Considering the Avalanche scored eight goals in one game, this would appear to be a severe mismatch. Colorado had a 2-0 lead last night after jumping out to a 3-0 lead the game before. We expect them to win this one by multiple goals. Anaheim’s top two lines are really struggling right now and when you look at the preseason projections, you’ll see Colorado was pegged for the top of West while the Ducks were expected to be at the bottom. The Avs have won the last five times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. Play on COLORADO -1.5 AAA |
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01-22-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 217.5 | Top | 130-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Denver has won back to back games only two times this season. That’s what they’ll be trying to do tonight in Phoenix as the Nuggets are off a 119-101 win against Oklahoma City on Tuesday. They’re now 7-7 SU on the year and going by point differential, you’d think they should be better than that. Phoenix picked up right where it left off in the bubble with a 5-1 start, but has gone just 3-4 since. Yet they too are off a win as it was 109-103 at Houston Wednesday, ending a five-game trip on a positive note. The Suns only broke 110 points once on that trip and have done that just twice in the past nine games. But they average 111.7 at home and we look for an offensive breakthrough tonight. At the same time, Denver is averaging 116.8 on the road. So this total appears to be way too low. The Over has hit six of the last seven times the Nuggets have been an underdog. It’s 38-17-3 their last 58 overall. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-22-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 66-59 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UT ARLINGTON Texas Arlington watched its three-game win streak come to an end last Saturday as they fell into a huge halftime hole against Louisiana and never recovered. Now 3-3 in the Sun Belt, the Mavericks are tied with the team they face tonight, Little Rock, in the West Division. Little Rock has dropped three of four including two to first place Texas State last weekend. Three of those four games, including the one win, were decided by four points or less. But the pointspread won’t be a factor tonight and we don’t think the Trojans have enough offense to keep pace. They are 1-6 ATS playing with five or six days rest. They are also 4-13 ATS off their last 17 conference losses. TX-Arlington averages 87.8 points/game at home this year so they must be respected here and we don’t see them losing for a third time this season to Little Rock. Those first two games, played at the start of 2021, were played in Little Rock. The Trojans starting PG (Nowell) is suspended. Play on UT ARLINGTON AAA |
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01-22-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -16.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UC IRVINE Cal Poly is not a good team, something that should be readily apparent via their 2-8 won-loss record. The Mustangs show up tonight on a six-game losing streak and the last five (losses) have all come by at least 13 points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS during the losing streak. Their only two wins were against a non-board team (Bethesda) back in November and San Jose State last month. San Jose State is a dreadful team and they only won that game by 4. The Mustangs have five losses by at least 17 points this year. So Cal Irvine has to be licking its chops Friday as they look to continue to a four-game win streak.This is the Anteaters first game in almost two weeks, so they’re fresh. Meanwhile, Cal Poly lost twice at home last week. On the road, they are barely scoring 50 points/game! Cal Irvine is 4-0 at home, averaging 84.2 points while giving up only 58.0. Expect a very one-sided affair. Play on UC IRVINE AAA |
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01-22-21 | Wright State v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 147.5 | Top | 95-65 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON UNDER Though it’s an early start time Friday (Noon local), we expect Wright State to “show up” for this Horizon League tilt. Despite its current second place standing, the Raiders are probably the best team in this conference as they demonstrated last week when they crushed 1st place Cleveland State by 36. WSU allowed just 49 points in that game and shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down an IUPUI team that averages only 60.0 points at home. But the “catch” here is that IUPUI is only allowing 63.3 points/game at home. The Jaguars upset Northern Kentucky twice last week, winning 74-69 and 65-63 as an underdog of eight and seven points respectively. Those wins came on the road too. They’ve played just seven games because of COVID and the last two at home were played three weeks ago, both vs. Cleveland State. They allowed 59 and 65 points those two games. The Under has hit in all three IUPUI games this season. From a field goal percentage standpoint, Wright State’s defense is as good as it gets, limiting foes to 37.6. This should be a low-scoring, early game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -7 | Top | 118-129 | Win | 101 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH We learned our lesson in the previous matchup between these teams, which went down Tuesday and saw the Jazz emerge victorious by a score of 118-102. They covered the spread too, as 6.5-point favorites. It was the sixth straight win and cover for a Utah team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. We had the Pelicans Tuesday, but not again here as they can’t seem to buy a victory with just one in the previous seven games. In its last five games, Utah has given up an average of just 94.2 points. New Orleans hasn’t been good offensively, save for the win against Sacramento, who happens to be the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz have become absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, a fact the Pelicans know all too well as they helplessly watched the Jazz make 21 3PA on Tuesday. It was the fourth time in the last six games Utah made at least 20 threes! This is very much the third best team in the West right now. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-21-21 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
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01-21-21 | Indiana v. Iowa -10 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Iowa is a really good basketball team. Ranked #4 in the country (and deservedly so), the Hawkeyes have won five straight games and covered the spread in all five. Four of the five wins have come by double digit margins. Tonight they host an Indiana team that is coming off a very disappointing home loss to Purdue last Thursday. The Hoosiers were four-point favorites in that one and expected to snap a 7-game losing streak to the Boilermakers, but instead were dealt an 81-69 defeat. They were then supposed to play Michigan State on Sunday, but that was postponed. While shooting just 3 of 18 from behind the 3-point line certainly hurt against Purdue, a much graver concern tonight for IU is the fact they’ve surrendered an average of 78.7 points the last three games. Iowa is as good as it gets offensively, leading the Big 10 in scoring at 92.2 points/game. They’ve got a Player of the Year candidate in Luke Garza and have covered 10 of the 12 games they’ve been favored in this season. Lay it! Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-21-21 | Devils v. Islanders -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ISLANDERS Every Islanders game this season has been a shutout and good for them that they’ve come out on the winning end in two of the three. The two games vs. the Rangers couldn’t possibly have gone any more different as they won the first one 4-0, then lost the second 5-0. It was a surprise 1-0 win over Boston on Monday and now they host the Devils, who split with Boston to start the year and then beat the Rangers 4-3 on Tuesday. With the two teams producing identical 2-1 records against common opponents, you may not see much of an edge here, but we do as the Isles are 5-1 head to head with the Devils the previous two seasons. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has opened the season with two shutouts and he is expected to be back between the pipes tonight. New Jersey easily could have lost both games to Boston and is giving up a ton of shots so far, including an alarming 50 to the Rangers Tuesday night. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA |
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01-20-21 | Sharks v. Blues -179 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS The Blues are off to a 2-1 start after beating the Sharks 5-4 in the first of these two meetings. They rallied back from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 to take a 4-3 lead in the third period and got the game winner late in the third period. That the Blues have been successful thus far in spite of poor special teams play should be taken as a positive. Their 0 for 9 start on the power play is not likely to continue and a leaky penalty kill (just 6 of 14) is likely to be shored up. They are getting offensive contributions from a wide array of players, 16 of which have at least one point. The 8-0 loss to Colorado sticks out like a sore thumb, but it was just one game and will be forgotten in a matter of days. San Jose has allowed at least three goals in every game so far, losing twice, and this is their fourth straight road game to open the season. Neither goaltender has played well so far and this club is just 17-36 its previous 53 games as an underdog, including 1-7 L8 on the road. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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01-20-21 | Pistons v. Hawks -5 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks are still looking to regain that early season form. Monday’s 108-97 win against Minnesota was definitely a “step in the right direction” and now they can get back to .500 with a win today over Detroit, which shouldn’t be difficult considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league. The spread isn’t even that high. Atlanta began the year 4-1 but has lost six of eight. Both wins were at home though and the Pistons have just one road win so far and it came against a severely depleted Miami Heat squad. Detroit is just 3-10 SU overall following a loss to the Heat on Monday. Atlanta won 128-120 when these teams played on December 28th and while they failed to cover, that’s because they were laying 11 points. The line is much shorter this time, probably due to recent form, but the Pistons very much remain a terrible team while we believe the Hawks are among the league’s most improved squads this season. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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01-20-21 | Markus Perez v. Dalcha Lungiambula -135 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LUNGIAMBULA We’ve got a couple of 185 pounders (Middleweights) here with Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2) taking on Markus Perez (12-4). While Perez has more career victories, he now has a losing record in the UFC (2-4). He’s dropped two in a row and was on the wrong end of a first round knockout back in October when he faced Dricus Du Plessis. That happened to be the first time Perez was stopped in his career, which is clearly on the downside. As for Lungiambula, this is his division debut as he drops down from Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). He’s 1-1 in the UFC, having won his debut against Dequan Townsend (a favorable matchup) with a knockout 42 seconds into the third round. But he could not overcome Magomed Ankalaev in November of 2019, that time tasting the cavas himself with a third round knockout loss. The reason for the long layoff between fights is COVID as he was originally set to fight in December. (It was his opponent, not him, that had COVID). Perez seems to get careless in his fights, which will leave him open to get knocked out again here. Look for Lumgiambula to have a successful debut at 185 lbs. Play on DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA AAA |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6 v. Jazz | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS The Jazz have looked really good of late, not only winning - but also covering - five in a row. The win streak began with an upset in Milwaukee, but since then it’s been four straight as favorites. They are laying points again tonight vs. a New Orleans team that just ended a five-game LOSING streak by defeating Sacramento 128-123 on Sunday. This is the first of two games these teams will play over the next three days. While it won’t be as easy for Pelicans to score here as it was Sunday, we still like them plus the points in this scenario as each of the previous four meetings have been close with two of them decided by just two points each. Just not convinced that Utah is as dominant as they’ve looked recently, plus this is kind of a letdown spot following the win in Denver Sunday, which was a big revenge game stemming from last year’s playoffs. The Jazz are only 2-2 SU at home. They are just 6-14-2 ATS L22 here. Three Pelicans topped 20 points on Sunday. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-19-21 | Devils v. Rangers -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY RANGERS After experiencing two very different results against the Islanders, the Rangers will now host New Jersey in another tri-state battle. The Devils will take the split they had with the Bruins to start the year as they scored two goals in each game, both of which were decided by one goal and went into extra time. That’s very different from how the Rangers games went against the Islanders. After a dreadful 4-0 loss to open the year, the Blueshirts rallied back for a 5-0 win in the second game. The Devils easily could have lost both games to the Bruins as they got a late goal in regulation in the first one and then in the rematch, the game-winner came with just seconds left in OT. They were outshot in the two games, which were at home. The Devils are 4-22 SU their L26 Tuesday games while the Rangers are a perfect 9-0 following a game in which they allowed eight or more power play chances. Play on NY RANGERS AAA |
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01-19-21 | Ball State v. Miami-OH +4 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami hosts Ball State for some Tuesday night “MACtion” and the RedHawks will be looking to bounce back from a 17-point defeat to their rivals (Ohio) last week. That loss took place on the road where the team is now 0-3 on the year and not looked good. But at home, the RedHawks have gone a solid 4-1. The one loss did come in conference play, vs. Buffalo, but a win their last time here (70-58 over N Illinois) was sufficient enough for us to believe they can win here, or at least cover the spread. Ball State is 6-5 SU but they’ve gotten to play N Illinois twice so far (N Illinois is very bad). Considering they’ve lost four games by double digits, the Cardinals don’t exactly appear to be a strong road favorite, a role they’ve been in only one other time this season … against (you guessed it) N Illinois. Miami does an excellent job at forcing turnovers and limiting second-chance opportunities. Their problem has been the opponents can’t seem to miss. In three league games, they’ve allowed a shooting percentage of 52.4, but our view is that number HAS to come down. Home team has covered four of the last five meetings and Miami is 11-4-1 ATS L16 as a home dog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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01-18-21 | Kansas v. Baylor OVER 140.5 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Big game here with unbeaten Baylor (#2 in the country) taking on Kansas (#6). The Jayhawks will almost certainly be LOWER in the rankings by tipoff as they lost their most recent game, which was all the way back on Tuesday, 75-70 at Oklahoma State. Defensively speaking, the Jayhawks were terrible in that game as they gave up 37 fast-break points. They’ll need to be better against Baylor, but will it even matter? The Bears average 91.2 points/game in Waco and coming off two subpar offensive efforts, we see them regaining their touch tonight. The Bears’ defensive numbers are outstanding, but Kansas will be the best offensive team they’ll have faced so far. After playing Texas Tech on Saturday, how much will Baylor have left in the tank defensively? It’s a tough turnaround. The Over has hit in four of Kansas’ previous five games. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BROOKLYN This might be the last time this season we see Brooklyn as a home underdog. We’ll seize the opportunity. James Harden’s first game with the Nets probably couldn’t have gone much better as he notched a triple double and Kevin Durant scored 42 points. Admittedly, that was against the Magic. But having two players like Harden and Durant make the Nets a top three team in the league. Kyrie Irving, whose status is questionable, becomes more “expendable” with the arrival of Harden. While the Bucks have won seven of eight, three of those wins were versus Detroit. They too beat Orlando, as well as bad teams like Chicago and Cleveland. Really, the only “good” team they’ve beaten recently was Dallas on Friday and that win came by just three points. This is a big statement game for a Brooklyn team that has lost eight straight times at home to the Bucks. That streak ends tonight. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-18-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Bruins split their first two games, both of which were against New Jersey. They won the first one 3-2 only to lose the rematch 2-1. It was a similar story for the Islanders against the Rangers. The Isles won the first (game) 5-0 and then lost the second 4-0. Another commonality here is that all four games these teams have played have gone Under. Look for that to change Monday. The big problem for the home team is that goalie Semyon Varlamov got hurt in warmups Saturday. His backup, Ilya Sorokin, did not play well though he wasn’t helped by turnovers. No word on who will be between the pipes tonight, but either way we don’t like their chances. Boston’s goaltending situation is more secure, but the Islanders are certainly capable of scoring in bunches, which we saw in the opener. The Over is 8-1 in the Bruins’ past nine Monday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-18-21 | Spurs v. Blazers +2 | Top | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND San Antonio and Portland’s recent form is quite similar as both won Saturday in come from behind fashion. The Spurs have five of their last seven games while the Blazers have won five of six. In both cases, strong play at the defensive end keyed the Saturday victories. The Spurs actually found themselves down double digits in the first half to a very undermanned Houston squad (who had just eight players suit up) before taking control late. Portland trailed Atlanta by seven at the break but allowed just 20 points in the third and fourth quarters. We side with the home team in this MLK Day afternoon game. The Spurs have been strong on the road (5-2) thus far, but did lose at Minnesota as a favorite. We found it curious to see them favored in this one. Maybe that’s because of the injuries, but Damian Lillard is still here and his 36 points led the way vs. Atlanta. The Spurs are just 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 227 | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two struggling teams will go at it Sunday night with the Kings hosting the Pelicans. Sacramento has lost two straight and seven of nine. Even in those two victories - 128-124 over Chicago and 127-122 over Indiana, it’s pretty easy to pinpoint what the problem is. This team is very bad defensively. They are last - by a significant margin - in defensive efficiency, which means no team is giving up more points per possession. They have allowed at least 122 points in eight of those last nine games. That’s not good. Nor is a five-game losing streak for New Orleans, who has allowed an average of 114 points during that time. The Pelicans had gone Over in five straight before running into the Lakers, who lead the league in defensive efficiency, Friday night. This game should mark a return to high-scoring ways. Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the game has gone Over. The Pelicans did shoot 60% in the first half vs. the Lakers. The Over is 6-1 in Sacramento’s past seven home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Panthers -148 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA Welcome to the 2021 NHL Season, Florida! The Panthers were supposed to open up with two games vs. Dallas, but those got postponed. So now they open up with two home games vs. Chicago, the second of which will be Tuesday. These are new division rivals based on the NHL’s COVID-induced realignment. The Blackhawks are not liking this new division setup as they have started 0-2 with both losses coming at Tampa Bay. They allowed 10 goals in the two games. Florida will look much different than they did last year as they made sweeping changes to the roster as they said goodbye to several veteran players. Being fresher than Chicago is an advantage for tonight. Chicago is not 100 percent as Jonathan Toews is out as are three other regulars: Brent Seabrook, Alexander Nylander and Kirby Dach. They are also a young team, just like Florida. This realignment somewhat benefits the Panthers as they will get plenty of games against the Blackhawks and Red Wings, two of the worst teams in the league. Chicago has lost its last six games as a road underdog. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS The old adage “it’s hard to be the same team three times in one season” is kind of a lie. Teams that swept the regular season games have gone 14-8 straight up in the playoff meeting. That’s the situation New Orleans is in here. They beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 and then 38-3 in Week 9. They are playing this game at home where they just easily defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round, 21-9. The only touchdown given up by the Saints defense came with no time left on the clock. The last three weeks have seen them allow just 212 rush yards total. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game this year. The last two games, the Saints have allowed only 16 points. This defense always does a good job of containing Tampa Bay’s best receiver Mike Evans. Though it wasn’t a banner game for the offense against the Bears, they are now fully healthy on that side of the ball and should be better this week. Don’t see the Saints losing at home. They have covered the last four times as home favorites. In games against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers have lost four of five. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Browns were fortunate to jump out to a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week and held on for a 48-37 win. Pittsburgh turning the ball over five times played a key role in how the game started and obviously the final result. It is unlikely Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will be so generous. After watching the Browns defense give up over 500 yards passing last week, Mahomes has to be licking his chops. Cleveland’s pass defense has been very bad all year against the deep ball, on third downs and at stopping tight ends. The Chiefs offense is prolific in all those areas. The Browns allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for over 300 yards, for crying out loud! Bottom line is what you should expect here is a lot of points by KC, who is off a bye and rested most starters in Week 17. But the thing is Cleveland will score too. They’ve now had three 40+ point games in the last six weeks! With Chubb and Hunt, they have the best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st (2nd worst) against the run. Also, the Chiefs defense has been very bad in the red zone, giving up a TD on 77% of all trips. That was the highest percentage in the league. The Browns offense scores a TD on 74% of its red zone opportunities, which is third best. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL These Conference USA teams are playing for the second time in three days. Only this time, the game is in Huntington, WV. On Friday, it was Western Kentucky winning at home, 81-73, to snap a 5-game ATS losing streak. The Hilltoppers are now 10-4 straight up, but only 4-10 against the spread. Marshall is now 7-3 SU and has not lost two straight this season. Off a loss, they’ve won by 14 and by 7. They are also 4-1 at home where they average 82.2 points/game. The big difference in Friday’s game came at the free throw line where WKU went 19 of 21 while Marshall was only 2 of 5. Now the home team, the Thundering Herd will not be facing a discrepancy like that again. They’ve lost four straight to WKU, so the revenge angle goes beyond just Friday. It’s not like Marshall is a drastically inferior side. In fact, they are favored, a role they’ve won in 35 of the past 47 times. With such a short number, we won’t hesitate to lay it as WKU has not covered two straight games since it opened the season 2-0. Also, the Hilltoppers are 0-2 this season when facing a team for the second time. They failed to sweep both La Tech and Charlotte after winning the first game of a two-game set. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 49 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -107 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-16-21 | Pistons v. Heat -2 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-16-21 | Matt Brown v. Carlos Condit -175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CONDIT Two veterans of the fight game square off in this fight on UFC on ABC 1. Carlos Condit is 31-13 in his MMA career, but now has a losing record (8-9) in the UFC thanks to a five-fight losing streak from 2016-18. But in his lone bout over the last two years, he rebounded to defeat Court McGee by decision last October. Condit is a decent-sized favorite here, which should tell you something, as he faces Matt Brown, who is 22-17 overall after dropping six of his last eight fights. Brown last fought in May when he was stopped by Miguel Baeza, early in the second round. It was the fourth time in his last six fights that Brown was beaten inside the distance. These two veterans should provide an entertaining fight, but we expect Condit to get his hand raised as he’s got the confidence of being off a recent win. Play on CONDIT AAA |
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01-16-21 | Wofford v. Chattanooga +2 | Top | 77-59 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHATTANOOGA This is a key battle in the Southern Conference, especially from Chattanooga’s perspective. The Mocs were 9-0, but have dropped three of five to fall into sixth place in the standings. All three losses have been by five points or less, so it’s not like they’ve played a bad game. On Wednesday, they did defeat Mercer 83-80 and now get a shot at one of the teams ahead of them in the standings, Wofford. The Terriers are also coming off a narrow win, theirs by just two points (80-78) over VMI. This will be their third consecutive road game as they also defeated NC Greensboro by three (48-45) in a much different style game from the one vs. VMI. Three road games in seven days is a tough ask in any league and considering Wofford could easily be 0-2 on this trip, we say “their time is up” today. Chattanooga is 29-14 ATS L43 as an underdog including 4-0 this year. They are a more veteran team compared to Wofford, who has failed to cover the spread off their previous four wins (were -6 vs. VMI). Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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01-16-21 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 60-55 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII Late night in Honolulu we get Hawaii hosting Cal State Bakersfield. This will be just the fifth game of the year of the home team. The first two were against non-Division I opponents, both of whom also hailed from “the island.” Those games were played in mid-December. The Warriors finally returned to the court last weekend with a pair of games at UC Riverside. They split the pair, winning the first one by five and losing the second by two. But they covered both, as a six and five point underdog, respectively. It’s basically a pick ‘em tonight and we don’t agree with that, even though CS Bakersfield has won its last three games. One of those three wins was on the road, but overall the Roadrunners are just 2-4 away from home compared to 5-0 at home. Hawaii has the best home court advantage in the Big West and if not for a last second shot by UC Riverside in the last game, the Warriors very well could have gone on to win that game and still be undefeated. This will be Cal State Bakersfield’s 1st trip to Honolulu as a member of the Big West Conference. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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01-15-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Let’s try this matchup again. We went with the Avs on Opening Night, but they were a 4-1 loser to the Blues, who they’ll face for a second time tonight. We were 2-0 last night on the ice and now shift to our 1st totals plays of the young season. With the new format, the Blues and Avalanche are going to become quite familiar with one another. They already are, having finished 1-2 in the “old” Central Division last season. While it’s difficult to believe the Avs get held to just one goal again here, it’s equally unlikely that St. Louis will score four goals again. The Under is 21-9 in Blues’ road games where the total is 6.0 or higher. Turnovers by the Avalanche were what led to the Blues’ goals on Wednesday. We expect them to clean that problem up. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-15-21 | Mavs v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Milwaukee is on a real roll right now and seems poised to take control of the Eastern Conference for a third straight regular season. Wednesday’s 110-101 win in Detroit was the team’s third straight and sixth victory in the last seven games. Tonight presents a challenge though as they host a Dallas team that’s won and covered four straight. Expect lots of points from this matchup. While recent games - for both teams - have been a little lower-scoring than usual, look at who they’ve faced. The Bucks have played Detroit three times in the last six games while also facing Orlando and Cleveland. Dallas just faced Orlando and Charlotte. The Bucks are averaging 122.8 points/game at home and that average, if hit here, should ensure an Over by itself. You have to figure the Mavs are going to exceed 100 points as well as they’ve done so in all but two games, both of which were at home. The two times these teams played last year, there were 236 and 268 combined points scored (Dallas actually won both!). We don’t need that many, but the Mavs and Bucks are certainly capable of producing a game like that yet again. The Over is 22-4 the Bucks’ last 26 games vs. an opponent that has a winning record (Mavs are currently 6-4). Play on OVER AAA |
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01-14-21 | Warriors +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Denver was looking at a possible third consecutive win on Tuesday when they faced Brooklyn. Things started off well enough as the Nuggets jumped out to an 18-point lead in that game. But they blew it and ended up losing 122-116, thereby denying them a winning record. They’ve yet to be over .500 at any point this season, a disappointment after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference each of the previous two seasons. Tonight, they’ll play host to the Warriors, who are a game over .500 as they look to rebound from a dismal 2019-20 campaign. Golden State also lost Tuesday, 104-95 to Indiana, as they too squandered a halftime lead. But only one of these teams can bounce back tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. We’re siding with the Warriors, mainly due to the fact Denver is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite so far. Defensively, Golden State has been better than Denver this season and we see Steph Curry possibly “going off” here after being held to 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-14-21 | Canucks v. Oilers -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON The NHL’s seven Canadian teams have all been grouped into one division for the 2020-21 season. This is a rematch from last night when Vancouver shocked Edmonton 5-3 as a +130 underdog. Blame for the loss can squarely be placed on the Oilers’ defensive breakdowns, something not lost on coach Dave Tippett. "Poor puck play and poor reads led to grade-A chances against. Give enough of them and they're going to capitalize," a seething Tippett said. "If we want to be a better team, a harder team to play against, those have to come out of our game." Look for those issues to be “shored up” tonight as Edmonton looks to bounce back and avoid what would be an embarrassing start to the season. They did come back to tie the game twice last night despite getting only one point from McDavid and Draisaitl - combined. The Canucks played without JT Miller, who led them in goals and points last season. Edmonton is 5-1 L6 after allowing 5+ goals the previous game. Vancouver is 1-5 the L6 times they’ve been in the second game of a back to back. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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01-14-21 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -25.5 | Top | 70-95 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA Gonzaga’s exploits need little introduction at this point as the #1 team in the country has won its 12 games by an average of nearly 23 points. They lead the country in scoring, averaging a ridiculous 96.1 points/game. The latest victim is going to be Pepperdine, who visits Spokane tonight. The Waves are simply not up to this task as they haven’t even played since Christmas and their last two games have been losses by 28 (to Cal State Bakersfield) and by 12 (to Cal Santa Barbara). Those losses were both at home. In fact, this is going to be just their second road game of the season. Gonzaga just hung 116 points on Portland its last time out. The only reason they did not cover is because they were asked to lay 32.5 points! (They won by 28). Pepperdine actually covered both meetings last season, but as you’d expect it’s Gonzaga that’s dominated the rivalry. The Zags have beaten Pepperdine 39 straight times going back to 2002 and haven’t lost at them at home since 1998! The straight up result is obviously in little doubt tonight, so it comes down to whether or not Mark Few’s team can cover the number. We think they will as a team that loses by 28 at home to Cal State Bakersfield is up against it here. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-14-21 | Bruins -170 v. Devils | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* on BOSTON New division rivals face off here with Boston taking on New Jersey. It certainly appears as if the oddsmakers opened this line way too low as we’ve already seen the Bruins “shoot up” to a much higher price. They’re still worth the investment even at the current price. This is a team that’s made the playoffs 11 of the last 13 seasons and is a perennial Cup contender. New Jersey has missed the playoffs seven of the last eight years and while there’s some promise here, the Devils simply aren’t on the Bruins level … yet. Boston allowed the fewest goals in the league last season. There were some losses along the blue line that may impact the number of goals allowed, but you should still expect the B’s to rank among the league leaders in that department as long as goalie Tuukka Rask is still around. The Devils started last season very poorly, losing 22 of their first 31 games, so they can’t be trusted. Boston has won 26 of the previous 33 meetings. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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01-14-21 | Crystal Palace v. Arsenal -177 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -177 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARSENAL Arsenal might only be 11th in the table, but there’s no denying the fact that they are one of the hotter teams in the entire Premier League right now. Thursday, they’ll be looking to make it four wins in a row for the first time since 2018. They’ve actually won four straight across all competitions when you include Saturday’s FA Cup win against Newcastle. They haven’t conceded in any of the last three. Up next for the Gunners is a date with Crystal Palace, which should be another three points as CP is below them in the standings. It was a five-match winless run in the Premier League for CP before defeating last place Sheffield United their last time out. They are also out of the FA Cup after a 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton last weekend. There have been some surprise victories this season, but not here against a side in such top form. Play on ARSENAL AAA |
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01-13-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -134 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO This is going to be a very unique NHL season. The league has been realigned into four new divisions with an emphasis on geography and every game will be within the division. The season has been shortened from 82 to 56 games. St. Louis and Colorado remain division foes and each has its eye on the Stanley Cup, something the Blues won two years ago. But the Avalanche are the better team now and very well could have made it to the Finals last year had it not been for injuries between the pipes. They figure to be one of the better teams in the league this season. Nathan MacKinnon is as good as it gets and anchors arguably the top line in the sport. Brandon Saad came over from Chicago. Cale Makar patrols the blue line and most importantly both goalies are now healthy. Look for two points on Opening Night. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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01-13-21 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Texas | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-13-21 | Bucks -10 v. Pistons | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks have really had the Pistons number the last few seasons. They’ve won 13 in a row over their Central Division rivals with two of those victories coming last week. Most of the games haven’t been close either. The Bucks have gone 11-1-1 ATS in those 13 straight wins and the two last week were by 10 and 15 points. They didn’t cover the first one as they were huge 16-point favorites. The number is a lot more advantageous tonight in Detroit. It’s not like there’s much of a home court advantage for the Pistons. They just lost here on Sunday, 96-86 to the Jazz. Detroit has just two wins, one of which was in overtime after they overcame a 23-point deficit. They are one of the worst teams in the league while the Bucks very much remain the best. No team can touch the Bucks’ league-leading point differential and/or net efficiency rating. They are averaging 121.9 points/game while allowing only 110.3. All seven wins have come by double digits. No reason this shouldn’t be #8. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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01-13-21 | NC State v. Florida State -4 | Top | 73-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FSU Florida State and NC State have some things in common. Both are 0-3 ATS their last three games. Both are off a loss. NC State has dropped two in a row, one of those coming against Clemson, who also beat FSU. But something will have to give Wednesday night in Tallahassee and we believe it will be the home team breaking through. There’s no shame in losing to Clemson (as NC State knows) and that was the Seminoles’ first road game of the season. It was also just their second loss, the only other one being a shocker at the hands of UCF. The Clemson game took place all the way back on 12/29 as Covid 19 has claimed their last two scheduled games. So it will be an angry home team tonight that hasn’t taken the floor in over two weeks. NC State has played three times since FSU last took the floor and coming off back to back close losses (both by five points or less), the Wolfpack are at a disadvantage. NC State has covered only one of its last six games. If not for inactivity, FSU would likely still be a Top 25 team. Lay it! Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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01-12-21 | Cal-Riverside v. USC -14.5 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USC USC has been rolling of late and we don’t see that stopping tonight as they step outside Pac 12 play for a home game against UC Riverside Tuesday night. The Trojans have won their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. Those three wins were against teams that are all stronger than what they face here. UC Riverside does have a 15 point win over a Pac 12 team, Washington, but that was early in the year and the Huskies are not very good. After a month off due to Covid cancellations, the Highlanders have played two games, both against Hawaii, and they went 0-2 ATS in those games. It was a five-point loss and a two-point win, games that they were favored to win. USC is the best team they’ve faced so far and all-time they are 0-6 SU vs. the Trojans. USC does an outstanding job defensively and cleaning up the glass. Those advantages should be on full display here. Play on USC AAA |
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01-12-21 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC Oklahoma City continues to be a great bet, especially when getting points, as they’ve won and covered each of their last three games - all of them as the underdog. The Thunder held the best ATS record in the league last season and are already off to a strong 6-3 start at the betting window this season. They are on a 48-25 ATS roll as underdogs and once again they’re getting points tonight as they host San Antonio. This isn’t the “Spurs of old” either. They just lost 96-88 in Minnesota Sunday, as a favorite, which was their fifth loss in eight games. They’ve been favored in only two games this season, those being the last two - both of which were vs. the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose outright on Sunday, but they failed to cover in a win Saturday. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip which began exactly seven days ago. So this is likely a tired team, one that is playing without DeMar DeRozan, the team leader in scoring and assists. Oklahoma City hasn’t won at home yet (0-3), but the fact they just went 4-1 SU on a five-game road trip tells us they are ready to. Grab the home team plus the points. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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01-12-21 | Kansas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas has recovered nicely from the ugly loss to Texas that kicked off the new year. The 6th ranked Jayhawks have now won two straight, beating TCU by 29 on the road and Oklahoma by four at home. They are back on the road tonight against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys just won 70-54 at Kansas State and also recently upset Texas Tech on the road. But they’ve lost three of five since a 6-0 start. While all three losses came by no more than three points, we view them as being clearly outclassed tonight in Stillwater. Kansas has won the last five head to head meetings, doing so by an average of 14 points/game. OSU looks like they could be short-handed for this game as well. Four players are currently listed as questionable. Not ideal when taking on a team as good as Kansas. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Raptors v. Blazers -5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After seeing them lose last night at Golden State, it’s pretty obvious that this Raptors team is a “far cry” from the one that won the NBA Championship just two years ago. It’s not just that they lost to the team they beat in the 2019 Finals, it’s a 2-7 start to this season. Kawhi Leonard is obviously long gone and this just isn’t the same team that lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Probably the only positive coming out of last night is that Toronto snapped a streak of four straight games allowing 120 points or more. They did a good job keeping Steph Curry in check. But they still lost and were down 15 going into the fourth quarter! That’s a bad sign as they get ready to face a Portland team that was off Sunday. The Blazers have won two in a row by an average of 22 points/game. They’ve scored 122 or more in four of the last five games. The fact that the Raptors aren’t able to play any games in Toronto is going to continue to catch up with them and this team is 0-4 ATS so far coming off a straight up loss as a favorite (they were -2.5 at GSW). Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-11-21 | Colorado v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The home team has gone 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings between these Pac 12 rivals. Utah gets to play host on Monday as it hopes to end a three-game losing streak. Two of those losses came on the road (UCLA and USC) and then the Utes did lose here in Salt Lake City over the weekend, 79-73 to Oregon. That was a very discouraging defeat when you consider how well Utah shot the ball (55.8 FG%) and the fact they had a 10-point halftime advantage. Thanks to turnovers, the Utes really fell apart late. But don’t expect that to happen again. The Utes are 9-2 SU and ATS their last 11 times hosting Colorado. This game wasn’t supposed to be played until March 6th, but CU had a COVID cancellation over the weekend and decided to move the game up. An “impromptu” road game sounds difficult when you consider that the Buffaloes are 11-40-1 ATS on the road when facing an opponent that has a winning record at home. All three Colorado losses this year have come on the road, two of them by double digits. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -6 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -103 | 102 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH So the Browns, who could barely beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph playing QB, now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and will do so without their head coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID list). That’s problematic. Cleveland was only 6-10 ATS in the regular season, the worst ATS record among the 14 playoff teams. That includes 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents. Baker Mayfield is just 9-14 ATS on the road in his career. Not only could the Browns barely beat Rudolph and some other Steelers backups last week, they lost 38-7 here in Pittsburgh. The Browns actually gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. They got here because of a 7-2 record in one-score games and beating plenty of bad teams. It can’t be understated how big of a disadvantage not having your head coach (who happens to double as the play caller) is. The Steelers’ defense is excellent at defending play action, which is when Mayfield is at his best. There will be Browns players out for this game as well including OL Bitoni and pass rusher Vernon. The facility was closed for much of the week. They’ve lost 17 in a row at Pittsburgh. Remember the Steelers were 11-0? Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Nuggets v. Knicks +6.5 | Top | 114-89 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Knicks, even though they came up short Friday in OKC, have been a pleasant surprise in the early going with a 5-4 won-loss record. Denver has been a major disappointment as they are just 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. They are off a win yesterday, but it came at the expense of a severely depleted Philadelphia team that had only seven available players. All four Nuggets wins this year have come with rest. So this second night of a back to back - where they are laying points on the road - does not seem like a good situation to back them. The only other time they played without rest was when they lost by 10 at Sacramento. As underdogs, the Knicks have covered five of six and all five covers were also SU wins. They did lead the Thunder early - by as many as 11 - on Friday. Denver has lost four games that it has been favored in so far. We think its pretty clear the Nuggets aren’t as good as they were a season ago while the Knicks seem to be much improved. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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01-10-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA Tech Virginia Tech is having a much better season than Notre Dame as the Hokies are 8-2 compared to just 3-6 for the Fighting Irish. Va Tech is off one of its two losses, which was by just a bucket at Louisville. Look for them to bounce back from that 2-point defeat on Sunday as they are 6-1 in Blacksburg where they’re winning by more than 10 points per game. The Louisville game was the first true road game of the season. On their home court, they’ve defeated the likes of Clemson and don’t forget a very impressive neutral site victory against Villanova. Notre Dame also came up just short on the road in its last game, a one-point loss to UNC. But before that, they’d lost by at least nine to Duke, Purdue and Virginia. Two of the Irish’s three wins have been against Detroit and Bellarmine. The other was by a single point over Kentucky. Need I remind you that the Hokies are ranked #19 in the country? They don’t lose at home very often and Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS the last three times its taken the court with at least seven days rest. Play on VA TECH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47 | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So the Bears’ offense somewhat transformed down the stretch, really taking off once they settled back on Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. While it was disappointing to see them score only 16 last week against the Packers, they’d previously gone over 30 points in four consecutive contests. We obviously know what the Saints’ offense is capable of doing. Since Drew Brees returned to the lineup, NO has scored 29, 52 and 33 points. That 52 came the last time Alvin Kamara played as he tied a record with six touchdowns. Scoring 33 without him last week was almost as impressive. Kamara has been activated for this Wild Card Game as has WR Thomas. So a slumping Bears defense is now set to face a Saints offense operating at full strength. But that Bears defense won’t be operating at full strength as their best player (LB Smith) has been downgraded to “out.” They are just going to have to hope the offense can continue its average from the L5 weeks, which was 31.2 points/game, tied (with the Saints) for sixth. The teams combined for 49 (with the game winning FG kicked in OT) in the regular season matchup. Five of Chicago’s last six games have gone over 50. Two of the Saints last three went over 60. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-09-21 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 98-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After sweeping two games in Cleveland, Orlando got absolutely hammered last night in Houston, losing 132-90. Not a good start to a stretch that will see them play eight of nine on the road. It was the first game since Markelle Fultz was lost to a season-ending knee injury. There were other absences too, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier to name a couple. Gordon could be back here, but we still expect the Magic to struggle offensively in this game. Dallas is coming off back to back wins, both as road underdogs, against Houston and Denver. The latter, which was on Thursday, went to overtime. In regulation, the Mavs scored just 109 points. In their only two previous home games, they failed to break 100. Orlando’s game last night fell right on the closing total. Before that, the Magic had held Cleveland below 100 in both games (83 and 94) and had gone Under in four straight. Both Orlando-Dallas matchups from last season did go Over, but those both occurred prior to the shutdown. One had a really low total while the other brought a hot shooting performance from the Mavs. Perhaps the biggest news you need to know for this game is that Dallas has had three players - Brunson, Finney-Smith and Richardson - ruled out due to COVID. So they are playing really short-handed against a team in the second night of a back to back. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON No one thinks Washington belongs here, but that’s okay by us as we’re taking the points. The Football Team was really solid down the stretch, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. Both losses were when Alex Smith did not start. While there will be much focus on what Smith can or can’t do in light of his injury, we are very bullish on what the Washington defense WILL do. They should get after Tom Brady and everyone knows that pressure is the way to limit Brady’s success. Seven straight Washington opponents have been held to 20 points or fewer. The Bucs may not have WR Mike Evans, who is a gametime decision. While everyone will call this a “mismatch,” big road favorites in the playoffs are rare and unprofitable. There have been only three instances of the road team laying more than six points since 1970. None of those three teams covered. They actually all lost outright! Since the 1982 strike, there have been only two 7-9 teams to make the playoffs (before Washington this year). Both won on Wild Card Weekend. Not saying the Football Team wins here, but they’ll definitely make it interesting. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles met twice during the regular season and the home team won both games. Both games were also low-scoring and stayed Under. The Rams won 23-16 the first time around with Seattle returning the favor 20-9 two weeks ago here at CenturyLink Field. The big story heading into this weekend’s rubber match centers around who will be playing quarterback for the Rams. Jared Goff recently underwent thumb surgery, causing him to miss the team’s final regular season game. While the Rams still won last week, that was against a flailing Cardinals team whose own QB was injured. Whether it’s Goff or John Wolford, the Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks and they’ve scored only 71 points total the last four games. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson and while his second half numbers declined (after an amazing first half of the season), he is - by far- the better starting QB in this game. Don’t discount the improvement we’ve seen from the Seattle defense over the last eight games either. They have not given up more than 23 points to anybody in that stretch. Safety Jamal Adams, the reason for the improvement, has said he will play Saturday (his 1st playoff game). The Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games when favored including all seven with Wilson. The Rams defense allows 10 points/game more on the road than they do at home. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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01-09-21 | Seton Hall v. DePaul +4 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Depaul Depaul takes the court for the just 4th time this season and it’s against a Seton Hall team that was recently manhandled in an 89-53 loss to Creighton. Now the Blue Demons are no Creighton, but they are at home, which is a place they have not played at since a 91-72 win against Western Illinois right before Christmas. Seton Hall is 8-5 straight up (9-4 ATS), so it has actually been a good season for them despite what happened vs. Creighton. The Pirates were on a 7-1 SU/ATS run before that ugly loss on Wednesday. But we don’t like them laying points on the road in this instance. The only other time they had to do it, they lost at Rhode Island early in the season. There were no positives at all from the Pirates’ last game as they shot just 33% while letting Creighton shoot 59.6%. They were down 42 at one point! A loss like that can wound a team’s psyche. Coming into the season, the Hall had been 0-6 ATS immediately after a game where they allowed at least 80 points. They are 4-11 ATS off a Big East loss. Play on Depaul AAA |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than a quarter century, but this year’s team looks like the one that can break that streak. It’s the first time Buffalo has been favored in a playoff game since ‘96 and they come in having outscored their last six opponents by 119 points. They’ve averaged 38.2 points/game during the six-game win streak and just put up 56 last week when we told you to take the Over vs. Miami. (Went Over by themselves). For the Wild Card Round, the Bills draw an Indianapolis team that may not put quite as many points on the board, but the Colts have scored no fewer than 24 in any of the last eight games. This has all the makings of a shootout on Saturday as the Bills are an aggressive offense that likes to pass on first down while the Colts should have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who just went over 250 yards rushing last week. Over the last four weeks, Indy allowed the third most passing yards in the league. The Over was 11-4-1 in Buffalo games during the regular season and that includes 3-1 when the total was 51 or higher. Take the OVER AAA |
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01-08-21 | North Dakota +11 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA North Dakota isn’t all that good (2-9 SU record), but Oral Roberts probably shouldn’t be laying double digits to anybody. ORU has covered its last six lined games, but four of those were SU losses where they were underdogs of at least 10 points. They did sweep Omaha last week, winning 95-83 and 86-75, to get Summit League play off to a nice start. But they were short favorites for both games. You should look for North Dakota to be competitive Friday night, even though they really haven’t been on the road thus far. This basically boils down to the fact that Oral Roberts has not been favored by more than three points against anyone this season. They hadn’t been favored - in any game - before the sweep of Omaha last weekend nor had they beaten a single Division I opponent! We don’t think North Dakota is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to as they’ve done a decent job defensively in conference play, holding teams to just 64.0 points/game. The Fighting Hawks are 4-0 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Grab the points in this one. Play on NORTH DAKOTA AAA |
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01-08-21 | Jazz v. Bucks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 131-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Utah comes into Friday having lost two straight. Both games were on the road and they were favored each time. Against Brooklyn, the Jazz clearly should NOT have been favored, but that was the Nets first game without Kevin Durant and the public overreacted in typical fashion. Utah lost by 34. Equally embarrassing was losing to the Knicks on Wednesday. Now they’ve got to head to Milwaukee for what seems like a sure loss. The Bucks have won three in a row, the last two both vs. Detroit, while scoring at least 125 every time out. But we look for this game to have a little less scoring than you might think. Except for that one game in Brooklyn, the Jazz are usually pretty solid at the defensive end. They’ve given up more than 112 just twice so far. The Bucks have allowed less than 100 three different times and have the chance to do that again tonight as Utah has broken 106 just once in the last five games. Jazz are 4-1 Under vs. teams that come in with a winning record while the Bucks are 2-0 Under when the total is 230 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-08-21 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 78-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Ohio U has not beaten Toledo once in its last five tries and this time they’ve got to face the Rockets when they are on a six-game win streak and have covered five straight. But while Ohio had a rough three-game stretch at the end of 2020 - losing to Marshall, Akron and Bowling Green - they’ve rebounded nicely with wins over Ball State and Northern Illinois to start 2021. The Bobcats did hang with Illinois earlier this season (lost by just two in Champaign-Urbana) and are one of the better offensive teams in the MAC with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 26th in the country. That they’ve been able to maintain that offensive efficiency despite playing without leading scorer Jason Preston (questionable for tonight) the last three games is pretty impressive. Toledo won by just two points its last time out and while they were three-point underdogs, they don’t have the luxury of winning by such a narrow margin again tonight. We smell upset tonight in the Mid-American Conference. You should take the points here. Play on OHIO AAA |
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01-07-21 | BYU +17.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA In our view, you won’t find a better team in the country than Gonzaga, who is not just 10-0 but also winning their games by an average margin of 30.6 points per game. They just blew out one of the better WCC teams (San Francisco) in their last game, 85-62, which was the Zags’ fourth straight victory by at least 23 points. One of those was against Virginia, so it’s not like it’s been all bad teams they’ve been facing. Like we said earlier, San Francisco is a good team and they destroyed them. Now comes BYU, also recognized as one of the potential “challengers” to Gonzaga’s reign of dominance in this conference. Don’t look for this one to be close either. BYU has already been beaten once this year by 26 points (USC) and also lost at home to Boise State. Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact Gonzaga will be out to avenge a late-season loss from last year. The three prior meetings all saw the Zags win by at least 23 points. Look for another 20+ point win tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night. We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-06-21 | Boston College v. Duke -11 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE It’s been almost a month (12/16) since Duke last took the court. That last game was a 75-65 win over Notre Dame and the first time they covered a spread this season (were only 1-point favorites). Losing to Michigan State and Illinois - as the Blue Devils did - isn’t that big of a deal. We like Coach K to have another productive ACC season and a Boston College team that’s dropped six of its last seven games isn’t going to provide much of a challenge tonight. The Eagles only win since November came against Maine. They are giving up a ton of points, 81.1 per game to be exact. St. Johns, Syracuse, Minnesota and Florida all scored at least 85 against this team. Duke is better than all four of those teams and should score in that neighborhood. Making matters worse for BC is that they were pretty inept at the offensive end vs. Louisville over the weekend. They shot just 33.8% and missed 25 of 33 three point attempts. No path to be competitive here for BC. Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-06-21 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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01-06-21 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 231.5 | Top | 102-94 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both Charlotte and Atlanta will be looking to snap losing streaks Wednesday night. The Hornets have lost three in a row while the Hawks have lost two in a row. Maybe it’s time to “pump the breaks” a bit on Atlanta as they just lost to the Knicks and Cavs - at home. That hurt the goodwill built up in an impressive 4-1 start. But Charlotte isn’t very good and the Hawks should win this home game. To do so, they’ll likely need to score lots of points, something they could not do in either of the last two games. But before “giving up” on the Hawks, realize that they had 15-point second half leads against both the Cavs and Knicks. Lack of depth and fatigue seemed to be factors vs. NY, but they had 88 points through three quarters. We expect a big number from the home favorite in this game. Charlotte gave up 127 and 118 points its last two games, both of which were in Philadelphia. We should see some improvement from the Hornets in the scoring department here as they’ve shot just 41% the L3 games. The Over is 5-0 in the Hawks last five vs. teams that have losing records. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-05-21 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After giving up 137 points on Sunday, 62 of those coming from Steph Curry, Portland looks to get back into the win column tonight vs. Chicago. The Bulls just picked up an upset win over Dallas, and while that was in the Windy City, the Blazers obviously can’t afford to take this game lightly. We like it to go Over the total as Portland has scored a total of 245 points in its two games since the New Year. So far, Bulls games are averaging more than 235 points. Blazers games are right there too (averaging 234.8 PPG). Those scoring averages place both teams in the top five of the league. So the oddsmakers probably can’t make this total high enough. Chicago is 11-5 Over when coming off a double digit win. The Over is also 15-7 their L22 as an underdog. With Portland, the Over is 44-21-1 the last 64 home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-05-21 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -15.5 | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH It’s been a while since Texas Tech (0-6 ATS L6) covered a game. You’d actually have to go back to December 9th to find the last time the #18 ranked Red Raiders were the winners at the betting window. But that’s what happens sometimes when you’re favored in every game. We happen to think this team is much better than its current ranking in the polls and view tonight as a “buy low” opportunity as they welcome Kansas State to Lubbock. Remember that K-State lost to Fort Hayes State, a non-Division I school, at home earlier this season. Texas Tech has six wins by 20 or more points, so don’t be worried about laying the “big” number here. Again, with that many blowout victories you wouldn’t think they’d be struggling to cover games. The Red Raiders are off a loss here, 82-77 to Oklahoma State on Saturday, a game that went to overtime. But this is a drop in class. Three of Kansas State’s five wins have come by four points or fewer, so they easily could be even worse off than 5-6 SU. When the Wildcats played Baylor, they lost by 31 at home. That’s the only ranked opponent they’ve faced so far. They were down by 17 at home to TCU on Saturday. The Wildcats turn the ball over too much and you can’t do that against one of the best defensive teams in the country like Texas Tech. Tonight won’t go well for the visitors. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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01-04-21 | Liverpool -156 v. Southampton | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -156 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIVERPOOL Last year’s Premier League Champs Liverpool can reclaim first place all to itself with a win Monday. They face Southampton, a middle of the table side that has not played all that well of late and is simply not in the same class. The Saints are winless in their last four matches and have failed to score a single goal in the last three. Goal scoring has proven problematic for this side when taking on Liverpool as they’ve come up empty on the sheet in six of the past eight fixtures, none of which have seen them emerge victorious. Liverpool, like Southampton, is off a scoreless draw (vs. Newcastle United) but the difference being that performance is in no way indicative of what we usually get from the table leaders. It was the first time this season they were kept clean as they lead the EPL with 37 goals scored on the season. Coming off back to back draws, Jurgen Klopp’s side should come out motivated on Monday and they are still unbeaten in their last nine matches overall. Play on LIVERPOOL AAA |
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01-04-21 | Stanford v. Oregon State +6.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON STATE Dangerous spot for Stanford to be laying points here. This is the second road game in three nights and they are off a 73-56 loss to Oregon. Oregon State has won three straight and their 5-3 WL record is a bit misleading as all three Beavers’ losses were by four points or fewer. They are eight points away from having a perfect 8-0 SU record, so we will gladly take the points Monday afternoon in Corvallis. OSU was a 73-64 winner on Saturday against Cal. Defensively, the Beavers have been stout, allowing more than 64 points in only two games thus far. Stanford has covered only three games all year and is 0-2 ATS when playing with one or zero days rest. Senior guard Daejon Davis did not play on Saturday and is listed as questionable for this one. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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01-03-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 | Top | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER At 1-4, Denver is off to a slow start to the season. Remember that this was a Conference Finalist three scant months ago, even if the path to get there was somewhat improbable. The Nuggets rallied from 3-1 series deficits in each of the first two rounds before eventually bowing out to the Lakers. They haven’t been so lucky this year with two of the four losses coming by three points or less. But tonight they face another struggling side in Minnesota, who has lost three in a row and failed to cover the spread in all three. The first four Nuggets’ games all went Over before the last one (106-103 loss to Phoenix) stayed Under. It’s been just the opposite for the Timberwolves whose first four all stayed Under before the last one (130-109 loss to Washington) went Over. The last four times the Nuggets and Timberwolves have met here in the Twin Cities, the Under is 4-0. Minnesota’s shooting has been quite poor thus far, especially from three-point range. Denver is 9-2 Under its last 11 games with a total of 230 or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-03-21 | Houston v. SMU +2.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SMU This was “supposed” to be a battle of unbeatens, but #5 Houston “ruined” that when they went out and got beat 65-64 by Tulsa last Tuesday. Now the Cougars are not only off a loss, but playing for third straight time on the road and it’s against 6-0 SMU, who is not ranked but obviously still undefeated. The Mustangs have enjoyed a strong home court edge here at Moody Coliseum, winning 29 of their last 39 games here. While having the home court edge in 2021 isn’t what it “used to be,” we still look for SMU to keep its unbeaten run going Sunday night. They are 5-1 ATS after beating Temple Wednesday and defeated Houston last year, 73-72, here at home. Houston has not shot well the last two games (below 36.0 FG%) and that’s a problem when facing a SMU squad that comes in averaging 84.2 points/game. Three straight road games is always tough, especially when the third is against a quality foe. Laying points here sounds bad, so we’ll take ‘em! Play on SMU AAA |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-03-21 | Raiders -2 v. Broncos | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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01-03-21 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 44.5 | Top | 26-56 | Win | 100 | 112 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So here’s the situation with this Week 17 matchup from the AFC East. Buffalo can guarantee itself the #2 seed with a win. That would mean at least two home playoff games. The worst they can finish is #3, which would require them losing this game and Pittsburgh (who is playing backups) winning at Cleveland. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they need to win here just to get into the playoffs. They are not necessarily eliminated with a loss, but that’s a situation they’d obviously like to avoid. Obviously, so much here depends on how long the Bills play their starters. Matt Barkley is the backup QB to Josh Allen. But quietly, the Dolphins have put up 26, 22 and 27 points the past three games. Tua Tagovailoa will have to start here as Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID. The Dolphins have gone Over their last five times playing on turf. This was already a low total and continues to get lower. There has been only one Bills game all year where less than 43 total points were scored. Even with backups, we’ll get there. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-03-21 | Leicester v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Recent form couldn’t be more opposite from these two Premier League sides competing Sunday. Leicester City is looking to remain unbeaten for a 4th consecutive match while Newcastle has already gone that many without a win. So, if you didn’t already know, you won’t be shocked to find that Leicester is 3rd in the table while Newcastle is languishing in 14th place. We like the Over on Sunday. Leicester seemingly took it easy on Crystal Palace (due to a busy schedule), content for a 1-1 draw. But before that, the Foxes had scored multiple goals in five of six matches. Newcastle can be feisty at home and we expect them to put up a fight at St. James Park. They haven't scored a single goal in any of their last three matches, so they’re due to put at least one in the back of the net Sunday. Leicester is among the EPL leaders in goals scored this season. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-02-21 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 213.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto has endured a disappointing start to the season as they are 1-3. But they did pick up their first victory on Thursday and did so in rather convincing fashion, beating the Knicks 100-83. Tonight the Raptors head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that has gone Under in all five of its games so far. The most recent was a 113-80 win at Oklahoma City. So we’ve got both teams looking to replicate their most recent effort. We think both are capable, at least on the defensive end. So these are two of the top three teams in the league in defensive efficiency thus far. New Orleans has held three of its first five opponents below 100 points. This is a rematch from Opening Night when the Pelicans won 113-99 in Florida (that’s where Toronto is playing its home games for the time being). The total here is much lower but given how the Pelicans have defended, that’s not a surprise. Also, the Raptors are shooting just 41.3% this season. But if there’s a silver lining for them it’s the fact the Pelicans are shooting just 31.1% from three. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Dakota State v. Western Illinois +6.5 | Top | 68-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS We’re digging deep into the Saturday card with a play from the Summit League. These are hardly two of the better performing teams from this conference, but what we have here is a not-so-good team laying points on the road. North Dakota State has played the likes of Kansas, Creighton and TCU pretty tough so far. But now they’re a favorite for just the third time this year and first time on the road. The Bison’s two victories have been by a total of eight points. So they are not a team you’d want to back in this situation. Western Illinois has yet to play a conference game (NDSU has played three). The Leathernecks have generally been competitive, except for when they faced Iowa (season opener) and Depaul (last game). While they may not have liked it, getting blown out by Iowa is fine. As for the loss to Depaul, it was their third straight road game and right before the Holidays. This will be just the second game in Macomb for the Leathernecks and we like them getting points against a team that’s shooting only 40.2% from the field thus far. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon has to be one of the “oddest” Conference Champions in College Football history. The Ducks did not even qualify for the Pac 12 Championship Game, but took Washington’s spot once the Huskies could not play. Then they went out and upset USC 31-24. Their reward is a date with the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, that being Iowa State, in the Fiesta Bowl. This should be one of the better bowl games and we don’t think it will be as high scoring as the oddsmakers think. Over their last eight games, ISU allowed 24 points or fewer six times. The Cyclones have a strong history of going Under in bowl games. Nine of their last 10 bowls have gone Under including six in a row. The three under current coach Matt Campbell have stayed Under by a total of 40 points. We’ll side with the trends. Speaking of trends, Iowa State is 20-5-1 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with winning records. The Under is also 36-14-2 the last 52 times the ‘Clones have gone off as the betting favorite. Despite the upset win over USC, Oregon QB Tyler Shough did not look particularly good in that game. But the Ducks are coming off two straight strong defensive efforts where they held Cal and USC below 360 total yards each. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-02-21 | Iowa -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is a very good basketball team. That should be obvious by their #10 ranking. You don’t get that high in the polls by being mediocre. But we think the Hawkeyes happen to be even BETTER than that #10 ranking and they’ll show it Saturday at Rutgers. Iowa comes in at 8-2 while averaging 94.3 points per contest. One of the losses was to #1 Gonzaga and the other was in overtime. Last Tuesday they took care of #19 Northwestern 87-72. Now it’s another ranked opponent, this one on the road. But is Rutgers really as good as its #14 ranking? We don’t think so. They did beat Illinois here in East Brunswick, NJ. After that was their only loss of the year, which was on the road (Ohio State). The Scarlet Knights bounced back by beating Purdue Tuesday. Iowa is the best team they will have faced. The Hawkeyes do not turn the ball over much (4th lowest rate in the country) and Rutgers doesn’t turn their opponents over much. Iowa is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 7-2 all-time vs. Rutgers. Play on IOWA AAA |