Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
|||||||
10-09-21 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 53 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -117 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
|||||||
10-08-21 | Dodgers -116 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS Without question, the most marquee series in the Divisional Round is between the Dodgers and Giants. Both teams won 106 regular season games with San Francisco finishing one ahead for first place in the NL West. The Giants have the home field advantage and have been an incredible story throughout 2021, eclipsing their projected win total by 34! But the Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs and still the favorite. They had baseball’s best run differential in the regular season. As for which team comes into the playoffs hotter, the Dodgers have won eight straight (including the Wild Card Game) and 18 of 21. The Giants, not to be outdone, are 20-5 in their L25 games. We simply feel the Dodgers are the team to beat. Does it not speak volumes that they come into Game 1 as slight favorites? Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise at all, considering the Dodgers have been underdogs in only two games all year. Walker Buehler is 16-4 with the third best ERA in baseball and is 7-1 all-time vs. the Giants. He won twice this year here in San Francisco. Logan Webb hasn’t lost since May 5th for the Giants, but is a lot less proven compared to Buehler on this stage. Since we like the Dodgers in this series, it only makes sense to take them in Game 1. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
|||||||
10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -138 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The champions of the NL East and NL Central meet in this League Division Series as Atlanta takes on Milwaukee. It was a 3-3 split of the six regular season meetings. Each series saw the road team win twice. By virtue of having the better overall record, the Brewers have home field advantage. The Braves weren’t even a .500 team until August. Something else the home team has for Game 1 Friday night is Corbin Burnes. He had as good a year as any starter in the majors. Burnes finished the regular season with a 2.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Since May 31st, the Brewers are 17-3 in his starts. So this is a tall mountain to climb for an Atlanta team that is just one game over .500 when not facing a division opponent. What’s so significant about that record is the fact no one else in the NL East finished with more than 82 wins. It was definitely the weakest of the six divisions this season. The afternoon start on Friday would seem to favor Milwaukee as they are 40-24 in day games. Look for Burnes to outpitch Charlie Morton in Game 1. Atlanta’s typically aggressive hitters will struggle against someone who doesn’t issue many walks. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to jump on Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card Game Tuesday night. A two-run homer by Xander Bogaerts in the first inning set the tone and it was pretty much smooth sailing from that point on. Now it’s a date with AL East winner Tampa Bay in the LDS. Of course, these teams faced one another quite a bit during the regular season. The Rays hold an 11-8 head to head edge, but what we found interesting is that both wins over Boston in September were high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the three times that the Red Sox defeated the Rays in September, the games were all low scoring. That said, the Red Sox did average eight runs/game in their eight wins over TB this year. We anticipate this being a high-scoring game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has an 8.10 ERA in eight prior playoff appearances. He’s 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays. Shane McClanahan will start for Tampa, but probably won’t go too long. Boston did get to him for four runs in five innings last month. These are two of the top four highest scoring teams in the majors. The Over is 24-10-2 in the previous 36 meetings. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 (money line) They won 106 regular season games with a near $300 million payroll. But the Dodgers have to win a one-game playoff to move on. They finished one game back of the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco had the best record in the majors. If LA wins Wednesday, then they will move on to face those Giants in the NLDS. But first they must concern themselves with a St. Louis team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games. It was an incredible run for St. Louis to get here but they are pretty clearly outclassed in this matchup. The Dodgers are 18-3 in their last 21 games and have won the last seven. So they are every bit as hot as St. Louis is, if not hotter. They’ve also been much better over the full regular season. Max Scherzer was an unbelievable midseason acquisition for LA as they’ve won all 11 of his starts since he came over, even the last two when he didn’t pitch all that well. Scherzer has a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the full year. We understand that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals has an 8-0 team start record his previous eight trips to the hill. But he did allow four runs the one time he faced the Dodgers. The last time Scherzer faced St. Louis, not only was it only an unearned run allowed in eight innings but he also had 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers have outscored teams by 1.8 runs/game at home, so we will gladly play the run line. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees -117 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES For most of Sunday, it looked as if one or both of these AL East teams would be forced into playing a 163rd regular season game. With Toronto already having won, a loss by either the Yankees or Red Sox would have put them into a tie with the Blue Jays for the Wild Card. As it turns out, both won by scoring the go ahead runs in the ninth inning. So we get the two long standing rivals representing the American League in the Wild Card Game. We like the Yankees to advance. They have been hotter down the stretch and are 6-0 their last six games vs. Boston. New York swept them at home in mid-August, then at Fenway the weekend before last. Over the second half of the season, the Yankees went 46-26. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have basically been a .500 team since the All Star Break. Gerrit Cole was a pretty obvious choice to start this game, despite a shaky last few starts. Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi also had a shaky finish to the regular season. Looking at two starters’ numbers, Cole’s are superior overall. He has a lower ERA and WHIP on the road than Eovaldi does at home. The Yankees have won their last eight games following an off-day. The Red Sox are just 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
|||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHARGERS ML Las Vegas is 3-0 but two of the three wins were in overtime and the other was against a banged-up Pittsburgh team. So what we’re saying here is “don’t fall for the record.” Los Angeles is 2-1 but has victories over two of last year’s division champs and probably should have beaten Dallas in Week 2. They defeated Kansas City last week, on the road, 30-24 as a seven-point underdog. We can’t see them losing to the Raiders this week. Being 3-0 is nice, but this is only the second time in NFL history a team has started 3-0 with two wins in OT. The Raiders were down 14-0 last week to the Dolphins and needed a last second field goal to force OT against the Ravens back in Week 1. This is a team that could easily be 1-2. Derek Carr does lead the NFL in passing yards, but we still prefer the Chargers QB - Justin Herbert - who threw four touchdown passes last week against the Chiefs. We have questions about the Raiders’ offensive line and entire defense. Both units are suspect. At the end of the day, we prefer to simply call for a Chargers SU win as opposed to laying the points. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NE For the first time ever, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be on opposite sidelines. There’s one team that Brady has never beaten in his career and that’s because he played for them for 20 seasons. Now he’s a visitor at Foxboro. His Buccaneers are coming off a loss, their first since Week 12 of last season. They were 5-0 ATS off a loss in the Super Bowl winning season, but they were a road favorite in just one of those five games. It was against Carolina, not a Bill Belichick coached team. It’s not a usual occurrence to see the Patriots getting this many points at Gillette Stadium. A defense that knows Brady well will keep this game close. Rob Gronkowski, another former Patriot, will miss this game. New England, a double digit loser to New Orleans in Week 3, is 4-0 the past four times they’ve been off a 10+ point loss at home. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as a home underdog. We expect one of the most heavily hyped regular season games in years to be close. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GB Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have faced off only twice in their Hall of Fame careers. One of them was a Super Bowl, won by Rodgers’ Packers. It’s unfortunate for Big Ben that the third all-time meeting takes place at this stage of the game. A Steelers offense that is averaging only 16.7 points/game has seen all three of its top receivers get hurt in 2021. Chase Claypool has already been ruled out for Sunday. Johnson and Smith-Schuster were non-factors last week, with Johnson sitting out. Both are expected to play this week, but Big Ben is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are coming off two straight losses at home favorites. Up next is a Packers team that has won its previous two games. Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the pair of victories. Pittsburgh’s defense saw its streak of 75 straight games with a sack end last week. Their offensive struggles to protect the stationary Roethlisberger. Too many injuries for a suddenly bad Pittsburgh to overcome on the road. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. LOUIS The Cardinals are going to the playoffs. They don’t yet know who they’ll be facing in the Wild Card Game, only that it will be on the road against a 100+ win team. It comes down to what happens in the NL West between the Giants and Dodgers, who could be forced into Game 163 tomorrow if they are tied at the end of Sunday. That would probably be a dream scenario for St. Louis, who will be a big underdog in Wednesday’s NL Wild Card, no matter who they play. The good thing for Sunday is they are facing the Cubs, a 70-91 team playing out the string. Though the Cubs came from behind to stun the Cardinals last night, expect the home team to make it 20 wins in their last 22 games here. What a run it has been in the Gateway City. In addition to this incredible 19-2 run that they are, they’d beaten the Cubs seven straight times going into yesterday. No one disputes who the better team is here. The Cards send out Jake Woodford, who had a 1.90 ERA in September. The Cubs go with Alec Mills, who has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts and has a 10.53 ERA in the previous three. St. Louis will want to go into Wednesday’s Wild Card Game with some momentum, not to mention win the final regular season game at home. Don’t overthink this one. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1.5 v. Falcons | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Washington is one of three teams that has yet to cover a game against the spread. They lost to the Chargers as a 1.5 point favorite, beat the Giants 30-29 as four point favorites and then got blown out by the Bills. The problem has been their defense just hasn’t been as good as it was in 2020. But this week they’re up against Atlanta, a fellow 1-2 SU team whose offense ranks 29th in points and 27th in yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is averaging only 235.7 YPG, which is well off his career pace. Atlanta got its first win of 2021 last week, also by beating the Giants. That followed blowout losses to the Bucs and Eagles. We had Atlanta last week, but the Giants are easily one of the worst teams in the league. The Football Team’s front four is going to give Ryan problems all day. We think QB Heinicke has played pretty well so far for the Football Team. Well, maybe not last week, but he had a 300+ yard game against the Giants and that was better than Ryan did last week. This is a homecoming for Heinicke as he grew up in the Atlanta era. We think he’s the guy to end Washington’s six-game losing streak to Atlanta. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The winless Colts take on the 1-2 Dolphins in a matchup of disappointing teams. But Miami, even without Tua Tagovailoa, made more than a decent accounting for itself last week in Las Vegas. They took an early 14-0 lead, then forced the Raiders into overtime. While it ended up being a second straight loss for the ‘Fins, at least they left with the cash as underdogs. Miami has the best cover percentage in the NFL these last two seasons and key to that is a 6-0 ATS mark when coming off a loss. This week they return home where they’ve covered four straight times as favorites. Indianapolis is not playing well right now as last week’s nine point loss to the Titans marked the first time they weren’t down double digits in a game. We know that Miami has an injured QB and injured center, but the Colts are in worse shape with Carson Wentz playing on two injured ankles behind an offensive line that is even more banged up than what’s going on in Miami right now. This game means a lot to Dolphins QB Brissett as he is facing his former team. We don’t see how a team can go on the road with a QB dealing with two injured ankles and win. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings OVER 51 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Cleveland is a top 10 offense and QB Mayfield is completing 73% of his passes. But the strength of this Browns offense is the run game. It’s arguably the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Coach Kevin Stefanski knows the opponent well as he previously served as the offensive coordinator under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. But the Vikings can score as well, Kirk Cousins is playing at a very high level so far. He’s throwing for over 300 yards/game, has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. It certainly looks as if he’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Cook missed the team’s 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3. Minnesota is 1-2, but four points away from being 3-0 and the offense has produced over 400 total yards in every game. The dominant performance we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week should be immediately tossed aside as they were facing a rookie QB making his first start behind a terrible offensive line. The Browns allowed an average of 27 points in its first two games. The Over is 8-2 the Vikings past 10 home games. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers beat the Brewers 8-6 last night, but the mood at Chavez Ravine ended up being somber as Clayton Kershaw exited the game with a forearm injury. His status for the playoffs is said to be “not great.” What a blow that would be for the defending World Series Champs, but they still have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage in the playoffs. They would have to win the final two games and have the Giants lose their last two. The second part of that equation is unlikely, but a team can dream. We’ve got a dream pitching matchup for Saturday as two Cy Young contenders face off. Corbin Burnes has the lowest ERA in the majors and Milwaukee has won his last 12 starts! Burnes has allowed no more than one run in 18 of his 27 starts this year. He is 7-0 on the road where his ERA is 1.64 and his WHIP is 0.77. If there’s anyone who can keep LA’s offense in check, it is Burnes. But on the flip side, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has a 10-0 team start record his last 10 starts! He has the most wins (19) of any starting pitcher in the majors. He’s permitted three runs or less in 25 of 31 starts. This figures to be a very low-scoring game, given the two starting pitchers. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Louisiana Tech v. NC State OVER 55 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 48.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 (RUN LINE) At the most critical point of the season, Boston is not playing like a team that wants to be a part of the postseason. They just lost two of three to a Baltimore team that has the worst record in the American League. That leaves them tied for the second Wild Card (with Seattle) and a game in front of Toronto. The Red Sox also got swept by the Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park. The final series of the regular season will be in an unfamiliar place, the Nation’s capital, as they take on the Nationals. Given Boston’s sudden inability to score runs, we will take the home team +1.5 on the run line. As far as the schedule is concerned, Washington has a slight edge heading into tonight’s opener as they were off on Thursday. They’re also going to have Jesse Rogers on the hill and he has given up no more than three runs in any of his five starts. He has a 0.84 WHIP at home. Boston goes with Eduardo Rodriguez. They’ve lost three of his last four starts and truthfully he’s not pitched as well as his 18-12 TSR for the year might indicate. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven series openers while the Nationals are 9-0 in their L9 interleague home games. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Dodgers have had no problems beating up on the Padres lately. They’ve taken the past eight head to head encounters, including an 11-9 thriller last night. It should be no trouble at all winning this game by two or more runs. Six of those previous eight wins against San Diego have been by that margin or greater. Wednesday’s win kept the Dodgers two games back of the Giants in the NL West and still alive in the race for homefield advantage. So they’ve got something to play for. San Diego does not as a terrible second half has left them below .500 for the season, something no one would have imagined at the start of 2021. Injuries to the starting rotation got so bad that the team was forced to go out and sign Vince Velasquez to a minor league deal two weeks ago after he was released by Philadelphia. His three starts for San Diego have all been losses and his ERA is 9.00. It is scary to think what might happen to him here as he faces the highest scoring offense in the majors. The Padres won’t get the chances they did last night. The Dodgers blew a 5-1 lead by committing a couple errors. Tony Gonsolin has only allowed one run in three career starts vs. the Padres and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this year. Play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the METS These teams played a doubleheader on Tuesday. The Mets won both games, ending a five-game skid. The Marlins have now lost seven in a row. Both teams shuffled around their rotations for yesterday’s games. For Miami, it didn’t really matter as their offense has been putrid during this losing streak. They’ve managed only 14 runs in the last seven games and five of the runs came in one game. After managing just three runs in 16 innings of baseball yesterday (2nd game went to extras), we don’t see them turning things around at the plate here. It’s not been a good second half for Mets starter Taijuan Walker, but this is a matchup where he pretty clearly should excel. Walker’s numbers at home remain solid. The Mets are also 21-8 as a favorite of -125 to -175 at Citi Field. Visiting teams have averaged only 3.6 runs/game at this park in 2021 and the Marlins offense has struggled all season on the road. Elieser Hernandez isn’t good enough to turn around Miami’s fortunes as he allowed three home runs in his last start and has a 1.81 WHIP in his previous three. Play on NY METS AAA |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about their playoff chances right about now. They won for the seventh straight time last night, holding the Blue Jays to three hits in a 7-2 final. That gives them a two game lead over Boston, three game lead over Seattle and 3.5 game lead over Toronto, who is now really up against it and will face Gerrit Cole tonight. Beating Cole will not be easy. But Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starter for Wednesday, has already beaten the Yankees once this month. In his only start against them here in 2021, Berrios held New York to two runs. Over his last seven starts, Berrios has a 0.98 WHIP and he’s looking to make tonight his seventh straight quality start. He has a very comparable team start record (16-15) to Cole (16-13) this year. Toronto has a winning record against the Yankees this year (10-7). Five Yankee relievers had to work 6.3 innings last night because of an injury to Jameson Taillon. So that could be an issue when Cole has to leave the game tonight. Toronto needs this game badly and we feel Berrios can outpitch Cole. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Here at Coors Field, it’s always expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Rockies average 5.6 runs/game themselves while also giving up an average of 5.1 runs/game. Year in and year out, Rockies’ home games seem to have the highest number of total runs/game scored in the National League, if not all of MLB. They’re right up there again this year. But after struggling to win here over the last week (it didn’t help that they faced the Dodgers and Giants), the Rockies won a low-scoring game over the Nationals last night, 3-1. This was after a 5-4 game, which Washington won, on Monday. We think this afternoon’s game will see a return to normalcy in Coors and even exceed the season average of runs/game scored here. Paolo Espino has started 17 games for the Nationals in 2021. He has a 5.90 ERA the seven times he’s started on the road. For the Rockies, Peter Lambert has started just once this year and he gave up two homers in 3.6 innings. Espino has never started in this park before. Going into yesterday, the Rockies were giving up an average of 6.0 runs/game over the last week. In the final game of the year at Coors, why wouldn’t you expect some fireworks? Washington is 13-2-1 Over L16 during Game 3 of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO This is going to be a critical game and series between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Along with Boston, we’ve got three AL East teams separated by just two games in the race for the Wild Card. It’s a race the Yankees currently lead after sweeping the Red Sox this past weekend. Toronto is still a game behind Boston for the second Wild Card. They are hoping for a repeat of the last time they faced the Yankees. It was a four-game series at Yankees Stadium earlier this month and the Jays swept, outscoring the Yanks 25-8. Now they get them at home. This is New York’s first trip to Canada since 2019 because of COVID-19. The number of fans allowed at Rogers Centre has been upped to 30,000 (per game) for this series, so expect a strong home field advantage. As much as everyone talks about the Yankees, Toronto has been exceptional over the last month, winning 21 of their last 29 games. They will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts vs. the Yankees this year. Ryu hasn’t started in 10 days, but we are confident. For New York, Jameson Taillon is also coming off the IL, although his stint was longer than Ryu’s. His last start was against Toronto and the Yankees lost that game 8-0. Though the Yankees may be leading the Wild Card race, it’s the Blue Jays who have a vastly superior run differential. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
09-28-21 | Marlins v. Mets -161 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS (GAME 1) NL East rivals Miami and New York are resigned to “playing out the string” at this point. For the Marlins, they’ve known this fate for some time. They’ve spent the majority of the season in last place and carry a 64-91 record into this series with a five-game losing streak. Over the weekend, they were swept by Sunshine State rival Tampa Bay. The Mets are also on a five-game losing streak. For them, the last two months have been a nightmare as they’ve fallen from first place in the division to 73-82 overall. They were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee. Somebody is going to snap their five-game losing streak in the first game of today’s doubleheader and we believe it will be the Mets. They are at home where their pitching staff allows only 3.6 runs/game and a .220 batting average. Marcus Stroman will start this first game. He has a 2.13 in three career starts against Miami. The Marlins only score 3.8 runs/game on the road. So look for their struggles at the plate to continue. They put up only five runs total in the three games at Tampa Bay. Trevor Rogers has not won a decision for them since June 10th. That was a long time ago. He’s 0-5 in his last 11 starts and has seen a drastic rise in his ERA and WHIP. Play on NY METS (GAME 1) AAA |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Don’t let the fact that the Rockies are 3-10 their last 13 home games fool you. All of those home games were played against three of the top four teams in the National League with nine of them against the Dodgers and Giants. Now they are going to host Washington, a team they took two of three from on the road last week. The Rockies are 46-32 at Coors Field this year. Factor out games vs. the Dodgers and Giants and that record improves to 41-18. The Nationals are not a threat. They are in last place in the NL East after losing three of four to the Reds over the weekend. Their record after a loss is 34-57 and they are just 29-49 on the road. German Marquez will start Monday’s game for Colorado. He’s one of the few to have mastered the usually unfavorable conditions at Coors. He has a 14-3 team start record at home for the 2021 season. It helps that the Rockies’ offense puts up an average of 5.6 runs/game at home as well. But Marquez has good numbers here, including a 3.49 ERA. Josiah Gray does not have good numbers for Washington as he’s allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 1-1. Philadelphia won its first game but lost the second. It’s been just the opposite for Dallas. An Eagles defense that has yet to force a turnover will struggle to stop a high-powered Cowboys offense Monday night. Dallas averaged 6.4 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass against the Chargers last week. It was a little stunning that they only had 20 points and needed a 56-yard field goal on the final play to win. Through the first two weeks, the Cowboys are averaging 435 yards/game and converting over 55 percent of their third down opportunities. They have 35 plays of 10 or more yards. It was already going to be a tough task for Philly to slow down their opponents in this game. With DE Brandon Graham suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week, the task is now that much harder. So that’s one half of this equation. After scoring 32 in the season opener, the Eagles were held to 11 last week by the 49ers. But they had a blocked field goal and a 94-yard drive ended with no points. Dallas doesn’t have a good defense. They’ve allowed over 400 yards to both of their 2021 opponents. The Over is 8-2 in the Cowboys' last 10 home games. The Eagles are on a 15-6 run to the Over after a game where they were held under 15 points. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-27-21 | White Sox -148 v. Tigers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Detroit has beaten Chicago four straight times going back to early July. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you look at the two teams’ respective records for the season. The Tigers are 75-80 and seem headed for what would be a sixth straight losing season. The White Sox are 88-68 and clinched the AL Central on Thursday. Before losing the last four games to the Tigers, Chicago was 9-2 against them this year. Coming off a 5-2 win in Cleveland on Sunday, we expect the White Sox to gain a measure of revenge in this make-up game. The Tigers lost two of three to Kansas City over the weekend and will be without one of their hottest hitters, Victor Reyes, on Monday. That makes the job easier for Chicago’s Dallas Keuchel, who is getting the start this afternoon. Keuchel has given up just two runs each of his last two starts. Matt Manning will start for the Tigers. He has a 5.87 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox. Despite pitching better recently, Manning has a higher ERA and WHIP compared to Keuchel this year. The White Sox are definitely the superior team and we can’t see them losing again to Detroit. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Blue Jays -190 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto finally got back in the win column Saturday, beating Minnesota 6-1. It was a game the Blue Jays “had” to have. With the Yankees beating the Red Sox again, Toronto is now two games behind both teams for the Wild Card. A win Sunday would get the Blue Jays within one game of tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox loser. We like Toronto to handle its business as they send Alek Manoah to the mound. The team has won the last six games Manoah has started. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his last 16 starts. The previous two, both against Tampa Bay, saw Manoah pitch very effectively. He gave up just two runs on six hits over 14 innings. The Twins are not playoff contenders and their starter Griffin Jax has a poor 6.52 ERA this season. Jax has given up 14 home runs in his previous nine starts. He’s allowed at least one HR in all nine. That would seem to be a problem as Toronto hit three homers yesterday to increase its MLB-leading total to 246. The Blue Jays really are an excellent team that deserves to make the postseason. They have a 39-18 record in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -102 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER Arizona is humming so far at 2-0. The offense has scored 72 points in two games. We had them in Week 1 when they went to Tennessee and whipped the Titans 38-13 as a 2.5 point underdog. Last week saw the Cardinals survive a missed Vikings FG attempt on the final play to win 34-33. They’ve scored a lot of points so far, but Arizona is still the only team in the league that hasn’t gone Over the total in a single road game the last two seasons. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine road games. But considering the state of the offense, we think we can count on them to put lots of points on the scoreboard this Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for over 400 yards against the Vikings. Jacksonville is not humming along right now as it’s an 0-2 start under Urban Meyer. The only thing the Jaguars are leading the league in right now is turnovers with five. They were beaten at home by Houston in Week 1, 37-21, which was a total embarrassment. The offense couldn’t do much (less than 200 yards) in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver. Meyer and Trevor Lawrence desperately need a good performance in their second home game. The franchise’s losing streak is now at 17 straight. Arizona’s defense isn’t good so the Jags probably will score a season-high in points Sunday. But the problem is the Cardinals will score a lot too. Murray is going to be facing a banged up secondary. That Under streak on the road ends this week. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER Not expecting a lot of points from this AFC North matchup. Bengals’ games have averaged 44 points so far. That’s how many points they’ve scored and allowed in two weeks. The Steelers have scored 40 and given up 42 for an average of 41 points/game. Ben Roethlisberger, whose best days are behind him, enters Week 3 banged up. The Steelers’ offensive line has played poorly thus far and will be challenged against this Cincinnati pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson. The poor offensive line play has also resulted in Pittsburgh averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the run game. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Bengals also have a poor offensive line. Joe Burrow has already been sacked nine times. We saw what the Steelers pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 1. Now they weren’t as effective in a 26-17 loss to Las Vegas last week. TJ Watt got hurt and is questionable for this week. A couple other defensive players have already been ruled out. Despite those absences, Pittsburgh’s defense will still be fine. We can't see the Bengals putting up a ton of points in this game. In a 20-17 loss to Chicago last week, they only gained 248 yards. But the defense only allowed 208. Taking the Under is an easy call here. AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Giants -139 v. Rockies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF San Francisco beat Colorado 7-2 last night, becoming the first team to 100 wins this season. The Giants are 16-4 in their L20 games but cannot afford to let up now as their division lead over the Dodgers is still just one game. Playing Colorado helps the cause. The Giants are 13-4 vs. the Rockies this year and have won the previous five meetings. The Rockies are a “tougher out” at home, but have now dropped four of five overall. DeSclafani will pitch for the Giants today. He is looking for a third straight quality start and eighth straight start with three runs or less allowed. DeSclafani has started four times against Colorado this year. The Giants are 4-0 in those games with DeSclafani giving up just five runs in 24.3 innings. The Rockies’ Jon Gray hasn’t been as fortunate when facing the Giants. He has a 1-2 TSR against them this year, one of the losses coming against DeSclafani earlier this year. The Rockies’ home field edge is dissipating as they’ve lost seven of their last eight games at Coors Field. The Giants have the most road wins in MLB (51). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse UNDER 54 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two last place teams are just looking forward to the end of the season. Baltimore is tied with Arizona for the worst record in the majors at 49-104. Texas isn’t too far ahead at 55-98. It was the Orioles striking first in the series with a 3-0 win Thursday. They and the Rangers have matching 74-72-7 O/U records on the year. This game we think will be a more high-scoring affair. It’s hard to trust either Spencer Howard (Texas) or Alexander Wells (Baltimore). The two starters are a combined 0-7 in 19 starts this year and the individual numbers are pretty ugly for both. Howard’s numbers include a 6.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP having also spent time with the Phillies. Wells is even worse with a 8.65 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Both guys have ERAs over 8.00 in their last three starts. None of Howard’s previous five starts have lasted longer than five innings, Wells has allowed five runs each of his previous two starts. The Rangers give up an average of 5.4 runs/game on the road. Baltimore allows 6.5 at home! Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Like you probably expected, the Astros have won the first three games of the series. They scored 10 runs in each of the first two games. They scored 9 yesterday, but this time it took them 12 innings to do so. They scored four in the top of the 12th to get the win and will now go for the sweep. We expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than the first three games. That’s mainly because of the two starting pitchers. Houston’s Lance McCullers is 4th in the AL in wins and 10th in strikeouts. The last four starts from McCullers have seen him never give up more than two runs. He has a 2.50 ERA this month. The Angels’ Alex Cobb is also having a good year. He’s allowed a total of just three earned runs his last five starts. He threw five shutout innings in Chicago last week, his first start back after a long injury absence. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve got a backup QB starting for Houston and he’s a rookie no less. If that’s not bad enough, the rookie in question (Davis Mills) will be facing the defense that has given up the fewest yards in the league through two weeks. And it’s a short week for Mills. So you can pretty much write off the notion of the Texans scoring many points on Thursday Night Football. After Mills replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor last week, the offense managed just one touchdown against what is a pretty porous Cleveland defense. The Panthers are only putting up 22.5 points/game and enter this one knowing it won’t take much scoring to get to 3-0 on the season. Look for them to play it pretty conservative on offense as Sam Darnold still can’t be trusted to air it out. They will instead look to run a lot with Christian McCaffery. He’s had 59 touches in two games. Back to the defense, Carolina has yet to give up any points in the first half. The Under is 5-0 in their last five regular season games. Tonight has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland (82-70) is now behind Seattle (83-69) in the Wild Card race after losing the first three games of this series. It’s now eight straight losses to the Mariners going back to late July. But, in a must win spot Thursday, we like the A’s to bounce back. They welcome back Chris Bassitt, the team leader in wins, to the mound this afternoon. Bassitt was leading the entire American League in wins when he took a line drive off his face last month. Five weeks later he’s back and we’ve got reason to believe he’ll pitch well here. Seattle doesn’t hit well, even though they’ve been winning in this series. Bassitt wasn’t just leading the American League in wins at the time of his injury, he was also first in innings pitched and starts. So he’d been the real workhorse of this staff. The A’s are below .500 since losing him. But he’s back now. Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has not won since August 3rd, which was nine starts ago. His last three starts have been exceptionally poor with 10 runs allowed in just 9.6 innings. Can’t see the A’s being swept in a four-game series at home. Despite their winning record, the Mariners have been outscored by 54 runs in 2021. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -116 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The St. Louis Cardinals have won 10 straight games, putting them in position to make the playoffs as the NL’s second Wild Card. The race for this second Wild Card spot has been wide open all year long as it seems no team “wants it.” (Given that whomever gets the spot must face either the Dodgers or Giants on the road, it’s likely to be a “one and done” postseason venture). But the Cardinals are clearly the hot team right now. But looking at their season as a whole, the Redbirds haven’t really been all that impressive. Coming to Milwaukee and taking the first two games from the division-leading Brewers is impressive, but we see the win streak coming to an end tonight. Now with a four-game lead over the rest of the Wild Card chasers, we could see the Cards start to “let up” in the coming days. The Brewers are a great team, one that has allowed fewer runs than all teams besides the Giants and Dodgers. Today’s pitching matchup of Miles Mikolas vs. Brett Anderson seems like a wash on paper. But Mikolas has only started twice on the road this year and his ERA is 8.59. His WHIP is 2.05. Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and would like to wrap the division up as soon as possible. If they win the next two games, then the pennant is theirs. We really like the fact that the Brewers are 38-18 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
09-21-21 | Pirates v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-21-21 | White Sox -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS The White Sox lost 4-3 to the Tigers last night after blowing a three-run lead. But they did see their magic number to clinch the AL Central drop to two as Cleveland was swept in a doubleheader. It is possible for Chicago to win the division on Tuesday, but that will first require them handling their business this afternoon. (Would then need an Indians loss as well). Last night saw Chicago strike first with three runs in the third inning. But Detroit immediately answered with three runs of their own in the bottom half of the inning. The game was decided in the eighth when Harold Castro’s two-out single scored Robbie Grossman, who had been hit by a pitch and stole second. The start time for today’s game was moved up due to the threat of rain tonight in Detroit. We believe the quick turnaround benefits the road team as they should be eager to take the field and atone for last night’s defeat. The White Sox are 43-23 off a loss this year. They’re hoping for Dallas Keuchel to deliver a start similar to the one he gave his last time on the mound. Though he did not get the win, Keuchel allowed just two runs in six innings. Detroit has won its last three games against Chicago and the last three overall. But they are batting just .174 over the last week and Tyler Alexander has made it through six innings only one time in 12 starts. The Tigers’ bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, so yesterday was a much better showing than usual from them. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto (84-65) continues its quest to lock down a playoff berth with a visit to Tampa Bay (92-58) to start the week. This is the same Rays team that the Blue Jays took two of three from last week. That was at home, however the Jays have a pretty good road record as well (41-33). They’ve outscored teams by 1.3 runs/game on the road and that does not include the “home” games in Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY when they were not allowed to cross the border because to COVID-19. So technically, no team has won more games outside of their actual home park than Toronto. They are also 15-3 in September. While they won’t be able to catch the Rays for first place in the division, the Blue Jays have moved into the second Wild Card. They are two back of Boston in the win column. Passing the Red Sox would mean the Wild Card Game would take place in Toronto. The Blue Jays have to keep winning as the Yankees are just 1.5 games behind them and Oakland is two back. Tampa Bay is just 8-10 this month as they’ve hit a bit of a malaise. Sandwiched around the series loss to Toronto last week were two series against the Tigers and they lost four of the seven games to them, a below .500 team. Having top pitching prospect Shane Baz make his big league debut is cause for excitement, but this is a tough spot for Baz starting against Robbie Ray, who is looking to win the AL Cy Young. Ray has a 1.85 ERA in five previous starts vs. Tampa this year. The last time he lost was July 21st. In his last seven starts, Ray has a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two ballclubs in vastly different positions start an Interleague series on Monday. The Orioles (47-102) have the worst record in the majors and are simply waiting for the season to end. The Phillies (76-73) are trying to track down a playoff spot, whether it be the Wild Card or winning the NL East. As easy a matchup as it looks to be on paper for the home team, this could be a little tricky for Philadelphia. They lost by one to the Mets Sunday night as they could only put up two runs. John Means is Baltimore’s only good starter and he will be on the mound Monday. Means has seen all of his last five starts go Under the total. The most runs allowed by the left-hander in any of the five starts was three. But the Orioles are also 0-8 in Means’ last eight starts for a reason - they can’t score. In Means’ last six starts, they scored just 10 runs and were shut out on two different occasions. A team that scores only 3.7 runs/game now loses the designated hitter from the lineup. So the Phillies aren’t going to give up many runs with Ranger Suarez set to start this game. Suarez has a 1.85 ERA in his previous nine starts. That’s very good. The Orioles have won just one of their last nine games and it was a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The Phillies likely take this one, but the best bet is to take the Under, which has hit six of the last eight times they’ve been off a loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s East meets West in this battle of division leaders. The Giants (97-52) have taken the first two games from the Braves (76-70) by scores of 6-5 and 2-0. The first game, which went to extra innings, saw us cash in on the home team. We noted that San Francisco has been far more consistent (they have the best record in all of baseball!) and far more profitable (now +40.0 units). As they go for the sweep Sunday, we’re going to play the Under this time. As already noted, Atlanta failed to score last night. That’s not uncharacteristic for Giants’ opponents. The SF pitching staff has allowed the third fewest number of runs in the majors. Anthony DeSclafani will start on Sunday. The Under is 3-0 in his previous three starts and his ERA is 2.12 in that time (his WHIP is 1.00). The Under is also 17-7 the last 24 times the Giants have been off a game where they were held to two runs or less. Atlanta only gives up 3.9 runs/game when on the road. They held the Giants to five hits Saturday. Max Fried has been on fire in the second half as he’s had a quality start in eight of his last nine appearances, including one complete game. They are 10-2 L12 road games. All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Bills -180 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on BUF MONEYLINE Buffalo suffered one of the more surprising losses in Week 1, falling 23-16 at home to Pittsburgh. That’s a good defense they were up against so there’s no reason to panic … yet. But an 0-2 start is something that the Bills, one of the Super Bowl favorites, desperately want to avoid. Things looked good early last week as the Bills took a 10-0 lead to halftime. But sloppy mistakes, such as having a punt blocked and returned for a TD, keyed the Steelers’ turnaround. Despite a career-high 51 pass attempts, Josh Allen didn’t have his best game. But he’s had some good ones in the past against the team he faces in Week 2. In six career games vs. the Dolphins, Allen is 5-1 with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s thrown for 1,557 yards, averaging 8.7 per attempt and had four games with three or more touchdown passes. The Bills have won the previous five meetings and scored 31 or more every time on this Miami defense. While you’ve got to respect Miami’s ATS record as a dog under Brian Flores, we can’t see Buffalo losing this game nor can we see the Dolphins starting the year with back to back upsets inside the division. So we’ll take the safer, moneyline route in this AFC East matchup. The Dolphins won’t be able to generate the same kind of pressure on Allen that the Steelers did. Allen is 11-4-1 ATS on the road in his career. We don’t need him to cover though, just to win. Play BUFFALO on the MONEYLINE AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We’ve got a recipe for a shootout on Sunday when the Texans and Browns meet in First Energy Stadium. Houston is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year but that did not stop them from putting up 37 points in an upset win over Jacksonville in Week 1. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Cleveland is expected to be one the better AFC teams but they lost 29-27 to Kansas City last Sunday, blowing a 22-10 halftime lead. Baker Mayfield and the offense were red hot in the first half, averaging more than nine yards per play. They finished with 8.2 yards per play, 457 total yards and really should have won that game. No interest in laying the double digit spread with the Browns here, however we are confident that they will put up a lot of points. So too will the Texans as the Browns defense couldn’t get off the field in the second half last week. Taylor isn’t Patrick Mahomes but he did throw for almost 300 yards last week. These teams’ Week 1 games averaged 60 points and we don’t need to get nearly that high to send this one Over. The Browns are 6-1 Over their last seven games on grass. Play OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Iowa State v. UNLV UNDER 52.5 | Top | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto lost last night to Minnesota, 7-3. They’ve lost four in a row to the Twins going back to 2019. All four losses took place at home and they were outscored 27-4. However, last night aside, this Blue Jays team has been red hot. Winners of 16 of 20, they’ve gotten themselves into the thick of the Wild Card race. But they can’t let up now. Friday’s results leave them a game back of Boston and a half-game back of New York. Those are the teams currently occupying the two Wild Card spots. It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-65), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. But they were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and that is when they started to surge. Now only four teams have a better run differential on the season than the Jays. Minnesota (65-83) has been a big disappointment in 2021, down 27.5 units and in last place in the AL Central Division. They came into this series off two straight losses where they had only three hits in both games. Steven Matz is the starter today for Toronto. He wasn’t at his best on Sunday when he gave up five runs. But he didn’t need to be at his best as the team won that game 22-7. Before that, Matz had given up only six runs in his previous five starts. Though they beat one last night (Ryu), the Twins are still only 17-33 vs. lefties this year. Ober will start for Minnesota Saturday. He’s not made it past 4.3 innings in either of his last two starts. The Twins will not hit four home runs again like they did Friday. Toronto is 37-17 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
|||||||
09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -159 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Division leaders clash in San Francisco tonight as the 76-68 Braves take on the 95-52 Giants. It just so happens that both teams are off two straight losses. Atlanta missed out on a chance to end their losing streak when yesterday’s scheduled game vs. Colorado got rained out. San Francisco lost 7-4 to the Padres. But we like the Giants for several reasons tonight. One is that they’ve gotten the job done over a much longer stretch than has Atlanta. The Giants not only have the best won-loss record in MLB, they are also #1 in the betting world, up 38.0 units for the year. The Braves were below .500 entering August. They’ve taken advantage of a weak division. San Francisco has had to fend off the Dodgers, who have the second best record in the majors, all season long. Logan Webb is responsible for a significant chunk of the Giants’ profitability as he has an 18-4 team start record and is +15.6 units. The Giants have won his last seven starts overall and are 9-0 when he takes the mound at home. Webb has 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in those last seven starts and 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Because of the rain, Atlanta pushed back Ian Anderson’s start to today. The right-hander beat the Giants back on August 29th, however that was at home. Anderson has since given up three homers, six runs and 10 hits in eight innings. The Giants had won nine in a row before losing each of the last two days. We’ve got to back them with Webb pitching on Friday. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
09-17-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on StL You’d have to go all the way back to May to find the last time the Padres (76-70) and Cardinals (76-69) hooked up. As you’ve seen by now, our 2021 Game of the Year took place in that series. It was in the middle of the three-game set and San Diego won 13-3, making us very happy. The Padres would go on to sweep that series, which was the start of a nine-game win streak. On June 25th, the team was 46-32 and feeling pretty good about itself. But things have changed. San Diego’s been a sub-.500 team these last three months and now trails the Cardinals - by a half game - for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. St. Louis is the hot team now as they’ve won seven of eight and five straight. They just swept the Mets in New York and had Thursday off. San Diego was in San Francisco yesterday. While they did win 7-4, this is just the third time in the last month they have won two straight games. It’s been more than a month since they won three straight. What makes this such a great spot to fade the Padres isn’t just revenge or recent form, but also they are being forced to start the recently signed Vince Velasquez due to the starting rotation being decimated by injuries. Velasquez was dropped by the Phillies in July after he allowed 11 runs over two terrible starts that spanned only 4.3 innings. Miles Mikolas is still working his way back from injury for St. Louis, but due to the spot being so favorable for the Cardinals we’ll look past his own recent struggles on the mound. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville OVER 66.5 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st. The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER You’ve got a Giants team that’s 13-3-1 to the Under since the start of the 2020 season. That’s the highest Under percentage in the league over that time. They COULD be without starting running back Saquon Barkley Thursday night as it's a short week and Barkley is still recovering from ACL surgery. No matter as the Giants only scored 13 points with him in the lineup last week against Denver. And that was at home. The Giants were 31st in league last year, ahead of only the Jets, averaging 17.5 points/game. The Under is 8-0 the last eight times New York has been an underdog and 7-0 the last seven years (for them) in Week 2. It’s also 20-8 the past 28 times they’ve taken on Washington. The Football Team is already on its backup quarterback with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke did play a decent amount in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. So Washington also failed to score 20 points in Week 1. That shouldn’t be surprising. Last season’s average total number of points scored in Washington games was 42.3. The only team whose games averaged fewer points was (you guessed it) the Giants at 39.8. So this total is not too low. The Under is 10-1 in Washington’s last 11 games on grass. They have a good defense. One more trend to close - the Giants are 6-0 Under coming off a double digit loss at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB -1.5 Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
09-15-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER By far, the most surprising result in Major League Baseball Tuesday night took place here in Arlington where the last place Rangers (54-90) defeated the first place Astros (84-60). It was only the fifth time in 17 tries that Texas was able to get a win in the season series. Keep in mind that Monday’s game ended up 15-1 in favor of Houston. We expect the road team to get things going at the plate again tonight as they face struggling Kohei Arihara. Arihara has made two starts since returning from the 60-day injured list. Both have gone Over. An issue with him going back to the start of the season is that Arihara almost never makes it through the fifth inning. Five of his last six starts have gone Over and he’s winless at home with a 9.22 ERA here. That’s not good. Especially since he’ll be facing an Astros team that puts up the second most runs per game in the majors (5.3 per game). So the road team will definitely score in this one. How about the home team? Well, Houston’s rotation has been besieged by injuries of late and today’s starter, Jose Urquidy, has not been immune. Like Arihara, Urquidy spent two months on the injured list. He hasn’t looked the same since, only lasting a total of 7.3 innings in two starts. The Over is 4-0-1 in Urquidy’s past five outings. Unlike most of the recent matchups that have been one-sided, we think this Astros-Rangers game will feature plenty of runs from both sides. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-15-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Brewers (89-56) and the Tigers (69-76) combined to score a total of one run in 11 innings Tuesday. That was a misfire by us as we laid the -1.5 on the run line with the favorite. Now certainly we didn’t expect Milwaukee to give up many runs. They came into last night riding a five-game win streak where they’d allowed a total of just seven runs. Three of their previous seven wins have been shutouts. Sure enough, they held the Tigers to three hits including the game-winning double in the 11th. We can’t envision a scenario where the home team does much at the plate this afternoon. Detroit will be facing Brandon Woodruff, who is among the league leaders in both ERA (2.48) and WHIP (0.97). Woodruff was roughed up a bit on Labor Day and then given the weekend off due to illness. We expect him to pitch well this afternoon on extended rest. In four of his five August starts, Woodruff allowed either one or zero runs. He has 24 strikeouts against only four walks his last three starts overall. The Tigers struck out 18 times last night! The Brewers had their fair share of chances at the plate, but they went only 1 for 10 when they had runners in scoring position. They should have won the game despite managing just four hits - all singles. We don’t think they’re going to score a ton today. Yesterday marked the second time in seven games they were shutout. Detroit is going with Matt Manning, who has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-14-21 | Cardinals v. Mets -164 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -164 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS The Mets are looking to rebound from a 7-0 loss Monday. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 5.5 games back of the division lead in the NL East. Most have already forgotten, but the Mets did lead the division for most of this season. They went cold in August at the same time the Braves got hot. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now as they need wins in a hurry. Marcus Strowman has been their most consistent starter (since Jacob deGrom went down) and will start tonight’s game vs. a St. Louis team that - prior to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game - hadn’t been doing a ton of scoring recently. The Cardinals have won the last two games in shutout fashion, but also have scored two runs or less in six of the last 10 games. Having won three straight, they are a ½ game back of the Wild Card now, but they’ve still got a negative run differential on the year. The Mets actually have a slightly better RD than the Cardinals (-10 vs. -13). We’re skeptics on St. Louis tonight as they have Jake Woodford set to go. He’s simply not as good as Stroman. The Cardinals can’t count on getting a start like the one they got from Adam Wainwright last night. If the Mets can swing the bats like they did vs. the Yankees (averaged eight runs/game in three game series) and Strowman delivers his usual solid start, then this will be an easy win for the home team. That’s what we see happening here. Play on NY METS AAA |
|||||||
09-14-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Baltimore has a habit of getting the season off to a great start as they’ve covered five straight Week 1 games. They’ve scored 38 or more points each of the last three openers. Lamar Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns the last two years in Week 1, the most by any player in the league. The Las Vegas defense really struggled in ‘20 giving up the second most touchdowns in the NFL. It worked out to 30.8 points/game allowed. The absolutely terrible injury bug that has bitten Baltimore’s running backs would be a bigger deal if they didn’t have Jackson. But they do. Look for Jackson to hook up with TE Mark Andrews, who had seven touchdowns over the final seven regular season games of last year. One injury on the defensive side of the ball, to CB Peters, may be a bigger deal here for Baltimore. That’s because the Raiders averaged 27.1 points/game themselves last year. That’s an almost identical number to what the Ravens averaged offensively. So it’s no surprise the Over was 13-3 in all Las Vegas games in the 2020 season. Seven of the eight home games went Over including all six where they were an underdog. They ended 2020 on a 5-0 Over run. The last five times they’ve played Baltimore, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* on NEW YORK There’s no time for the Yankees to stew over Sunday night’s 7-6 loss to the Mets. That’s because it’s right back to work this afternoon in a make-up game vs. the Twins. The Yankees are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and have watched as Toronto has passed them in the Wild Card race. But it wasn’t too long ago that New York was riding high on a 13-game win streak. That win streak included three wins against the Twins. It could have been four, but the finale of that series was rained out. That’s what we are making up today and we think the Yankees will “complete the sweep” 22 days later. Minnesota lost two of three over the weekend in Kansas City. They are in last place and have been one of the five worst teams to bet on in 2021. Their record vs. the Yankees is pretty poor. Not only did they lose three times here last month, but they are 11-43 in their last 54 games at Yankees Stadium. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games against the Yankees overall. The Yankees need a win very badly today and should feel confident handing the ball to Luis Gil, who has a 1.42 ERA in his first four starts. For Minnesota, John Gant gave up four runs in 3.3 innings the last time he faced the Yankees. He’s off his best start since joining the Twins, but actually needed 96 pitches to get through five innings. That was his most pitches thrown in any of his four starts with his new team. Home team wins this one. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER For the fourth straight year, Chicago and Los Angeles will be facing off in primetime. The previous three installments have all been low-scoring games (Under 3-0) and seen an average of just 26.3 points/game scored. The quarterbacks will be different this time around, but we think the end result (a low-scoring game) will remain the same. Andy Dalton starting for the Bears is a mistake and we don’t fear him at all going against what was the league’s #1 ranked scoring defense last year. Not only did the Rams allow the fewest points/game (18.5), they also allowed the fewest number of yards. In the last three meetings vs. the Rams, Matt Nagy’s offense has scored just 32 points and never topped 15. Jared Goff is the new starter in LA and while he’s going to be better than Jared Goff was, the loss of RB Cam Akers to a season-ending injury does loom large. The Under was 8-0 in Rams’ home games during the 2020 season as there was an average of only 34.3 total points/game scored. This total looks way too high for the first week of the regular season considering the head to head history and Dalton facing what was the top-ranked defense in the league last year. It wasn’t just last year; the Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games. Chicago is 13-5 Under its last 18 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB (money line) This line has been all over the place. New Orleans opened as a three-point favorite over the summer. But that was when there was some uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay. Once Rodgers made his presence felt in Packers’ camp, then the line flipped and Green Bay became a three-point favorite. It has since moved up even further with the game being moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. Losing a home game is terrible for the Saints. Already, they are faced with no Drew Brees for the first time in over a decade. The Saints are quite likely to take a bit of a tumble down the standings as a result. We’ve never been fans of his replacement, Jameis Winston. There are nine other new starters for this year. There were a total of 57 starts lost on defense. Winston does not have the kind of depth at receiver to work with that Brees enjoyed. This just isn’t going to be the same Saints team that you are used to seeing. As long as Green Bay has Rodgers, they are fine. They’ve won six of seven games under Matt LaFleur in the month of September. They’ve won 13 games each of the last two seasons. We prefer the moneyline route as we’d rather not lay points in this unique circumstance. But we are confident in Green Bay winning. The Saints only played two preseason games because of Ida. Play on GREEN BAY (MONEYLINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We like the Over in 49ers-Lions game as well. We already went through how easily the Niners should be able to move the ball in this one. Well, let’s now throw in the fact that the last 10 Lions season openers have all gone Over the total. Their offense should score enough to make it 11 in a row. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Ball State v. Penn State UNDER 58 | Top | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 15-4 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Cubs have won Zach Davies' last three starts. This despite Davies’ own 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in that stretch. Now his individual numbers are skewed a bit due to allowing six runs to Pittsburgh on Sunday. But you’ve also got to consider the last three opponents that Davies has faced. Not only was it the Pirates, but you also had matchups with Minnesota and Colorado. That’s two last place teams and a home start vs. a team that’s 20-50 on the road. It’s a much different caliber of opponent on Saturday for Davies and the Cubs. The Giants have the best record in the majors. Following a 6-1 at Wrigley on Friday San Francisco is 91-50 and has won five straight. They lead the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Kevin Gausman has pitched very well for them this season and gets the start this afternoon. Gausman has a sub-1.00 WHIP overall and his ERA on the road is 1.95. In 26 of his 28 starts, Gausman hasn’t given up more than three earned runs. The Cubs are hitting just .219 against righties, so this is an awful matchup for them and they are very likely to lose. But we’ll also call for a quieter day than usual at the plate for the Giants. They’ve scored six or more in every game during this win streak. The Under is 11-3-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games in Chicago where they have lost 17 of 21. The Cubs have gone Under in four straight. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia OVER 55 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers and Padres renew pleasantries in what will be a big series for both teams. Believe it or not, San Diego holds the head to head edge in the season series, 7-6. But they did get swept at home by the Dodgers late last month. The Padres are desperately holding onto the second Wild Card spot in the National League with a one-game lead over Cincinnati while St. Louis and Philadelphia are also lurking close behind. The Dodgers have a playoff spot all but locked up as they are 13 games ahead of the Padres. But right now they’d also be a WIld Card, meaning they’d host San Diego in the one-game playoff. Los Angeles clearly has its eyes on the division crown though as they trail San Francisco by 2.5 games. Do not look for many runs to be scored in this game. The Padres send out Joe Musgrove and he’s given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Musgrove has gone at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Dodgers counter with Julio Urias. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. In fact, he’s allowed just eight runs total in those eight starts. The Dodgers have won the last six! We can’t believe this total isn’t lower. Play on UNDER AAA |