Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*) Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury. Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*) Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*) The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6.5 | 123-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Phoenix -6.5 (5*) The home teams have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in this series and have won by a decisive margin of 17.2 points per game. Phoenix is 5-0 SU at home versus Dallas this season and all those wins came by 7 points or more. This is a battle tested Suns team that advanced to the 2021 NBA Finals before falling to Milwaukee in 6 games. Phoenix lost Game 6 of this series 113-86 as a 2.0-point favorite. Any Game 7 home favorite (Suns) of 6.0 or more that’s coming off a Game 6 straight up favorite loss, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 200, and they won by an average of 22.2 points per game. Give me the Suns minus the points. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*) Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin. The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Golden State 10:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Golden State -8.0 (5*) So, let’s assess all the facts leading into this Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals. Memphis won Game 5 on Wednesday in a 134-95 rout. The Grizzlies led that contest by 52 heading into the 4th quarter. Yet here they sit as a large 8.5-point underdog. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the points and banking on you overreacting to what you witnessed in the previous game of this series. I’m not taking the bait. The core group of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson all have plenty of experience on how to close out a series at home. I like them to succeed on Friday and Golden State to win by a double-digit margin while doing so. Give me Golden State minus the points. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET Game# 516-517 Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*) The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such. Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*) Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Grizzlies 9:30 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Grizzlies +4.5 (5*) Memphis enters Game 5 at home down 3-1 in the series and without their star point guard Ja Morant due to a bruised knee. However, let’s not bury them just yet. During their Game 4 loss at Golden State, Memphis led for all but 45 seconds of that contest and easily covered as a 10.0-point underdog. Despite that defeat, Memphis has still gone an excellent 20-6 SU when Morant hasn’t been available to play this season. The Grizzlies are also an impressive 33-13 (.717) at home and includes an extremely profitable 30-16 ATS (65%). Give me the Grizzlies plus the points. |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*) The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger. Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers +3 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: 76ers +3.0 (10*) The 76ers are obviously a different team when Joel Embiid is healthy and able to play. They lost the first 2 games of this series by sizable margins. However, Embiid returned in Game 3 and Philadelphia went 2-0 SU&ATS since. Additionally, Jimmy Butler of Miami accounted for 73 of Miami’s 187 points (39%) in those 2 losses, and the 76ers prevented any other Heat players from putting up any big numbers. That recent defensive strategy has worked, and l look for it to be continued in Game 5. Give me the 76ers plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*) Down 2-1 in the series, I look for Boston to be playing with an extremely high degree of desperation and urgency. Boston is coming off a 103-10 loss at Milwaukee in Game 3. Nonetheless, the Celtics are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Their only blemish to that recent team trend was a loss at Miami in a game that Boston was without its 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Furthermore, Boston shot a miserable 36% in that Game 3 loss on Saturday. The Celtics are an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a game in which they shot less than 40% and won by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per contest. Give me the Celtics on the money line. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Bucks 3:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*) The Celtics bounced back from a poor performance in the series opener with a convincing 23-point win in Game 2. I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 3 in Milwaukee. Since Game 42 of their season, Boston has gone an excellent 9-2 SU on the road versus teams with a winning record. Boston was 2-0 SU&ATS at Brooklyn in their opening playoff series against a team led by superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. As a matter of fact, the Celtics have gone 16-3 SU in their last 19 on the road and 2 of their losses came in games without top scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylon Brown both being unavailable. Additionally, NBA Defensive Player of the Year and starting point guard Marcus Smart returns to the lineup today for Boston after missing Game 2 due to a thigh injury. Give me the Celtics plus the small number. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Suns @ Mavericks 9:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Mavericks -110 (5*) Dallas will be playing with a high degree of desperation and urgency this evening to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series. The Mavericks have gone a stellar 31-13 SU at home this season and that includes 16-3 in their last 19. Dallas is coming off a 129-109 loss to Phoenix in Game 2. The Mavericks have gone an outstanding 10-1 SU this season following a loss by 15 points or more in their previous game and they outscored their opponents by 11.1 points per contest. Dallas is also a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season when their money line was -106 to -250. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history heavily favors the home team in this identical situation. Dallas enters today with a season long record of 56-34 (.622). The Mavericks are coming off SU&ATS losses during each of the first 2 games of this series with both coming as an away underdog. Since the 2005 NBA Playoffs, any team (Dallas) that’s playing at home in a Game 3 and is coming off away underdog ATS losses in each of the first 2 games of the series, and they possess a win percentage of .607 or better, resulted in those home teams going 14-4 SU&ATS. Give me Dallas on the money line. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (5*) Phoenix walked away with a 121-114 win in the opening game of this series on Monday and barely covered as a 5.5-point favorite. However, I like the way Dallas didn’t quit in that contest despite being down by 17 on the road heading into the 4th quarter. Speaking of not quitting, Dallas is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a loss and won by 12.7 points per game. The Mavericks are also 13-2 SU in their previous 15 following a loss and that’s worth noting considering they’re a sizable 6.0-point underdog tonight. Phoenix outrebounded Dallas in Game 1 by a wide margin of 51-36. Nevertheless, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season after being -15 or worse on the boards during its previous game. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Bucks @ Celtics 7:05 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*) The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 101-89 loss in Game 1. There was a lot of rarities that occurred for that to happen which are highly improbable to occur again in Game 2. It was just the 5th time that Boston had scored 95 points or less since 12/10/21. The good news for Celtics backers is their team has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since that time immediately after scoring 95 or less and won by an average of 15.3 points per contest. Despite that low scoring output, Boston still was a respectable 18-50 (36%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Unfortunately, they went a horrendous 10-34 from inside the 3-point line. That’s an extremely rare occurrence for an NBA team to not only make just 10 two-point field goal attempts in a game, but also nearly doubling that output from 3-point territory, and especially so for a quality group like the Celtics. Lastly, the Celtics shot a miserable 33.3% from the field overall. Boston has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season following a contest in which they shot less than 40% and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.2 points per game. Conversely, since the start of last season, Milwaukee is 0-4 SU&ATS after holding their opponent to 35% or worse shooting in their previous contest, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-01-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Padres (Musgrove) @ Pirates (Keller) 1:35 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Padres -1.5 (-110) Pittsburgh had lost 4 in a row heading into the weekend. Mitch Keller is 0-4 in his team starts this season with a sizable 6.62 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Keller made 1 career home start versus San Diego and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. The Padres entered the weekend having won 4 straight and 9 of its last 11. San Diego had also scored 7 runs or more during that 4-game win streak. Joe Musgrove has been outstanding over his last 3 starts with a 1.89 ERA and 0.80 WHIP during 19.0 innings pitched. Give me San Diego on the run-line. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4 | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Boston 1:00 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Boston -4.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that Milwaukee has gone a dismal 5-10 ATS as an underdog this season. Furthermore, since the 2020 playoffs, Milwaukee is an uninspiring 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS during an opening game of a series. The Celtics are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Milwaukee. Boston has shot 47% or better in each of their previous 9 games. The Celtics are 5-0 SU in their last 5 and 8-1 SU during its previous 9. That includes covering 7 of their last 8. Since the 2019 NBA Playoffs, whenever there was a total of 209.0 or greater in Boston’s opening game of a playoff series, the Celtics were 4-1 SU&ATS while allowing a mere 92.6 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Minnesota 9:00 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in this series and on the brink of elimination. So playing at home with a high degree of urgency and desperation will provide them with an emotional edge in this contest. Additionally, it’s not like the Memphis Grizzlies have recent experience in closing out a playoff series and doing so on the road is a difficult chore regardless of having been there or not. Besides the fact, that you can make a solid case that Minnesota could’ve won this series in 5 games. They blew a 26-point lead at home in Game 3 and led by 10 heading into the 4th quarter in Game 5 before losing on a last second bucket by Ja Morant. The Timberwolves did cover in Game 5 as a 6-point underdog. Minnesota is 17-6 SU at home this season following an ATS cover and outscored those 23 opponents by an average of 9.5 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the small number. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Minnesota +6.0 (10*) After blowing a 26-point lead in Game 3 and losing 104-95, Minnesota bounced back with an impressive 119-118 win in Game 4. It was impressive in the sense that it was a huge emotional blow when collapsing in Game 3 and the Timberwolves were unshaken in their Game 4 performance. Minnesota also has the confidence in knowing that can win at Memphis like they did 130-117 in Game 1. Furthermore, Minnesota has played the #2 seed Memphis Grizzlies on even terms this season while splitting the 8 head-to-head matchups. This game will be much closer than many are predicting, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Minnesota win straight up. However, I won’t get greed and will gladly take the points. Give me Minnesota plus |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
Phoenix @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (10*) This is the game that the Devin Booker being out of the lineup will cost Phoenix. They were able to escape with a 3-point win in Game 3 of Friday night. However, the Pelicans didn’t quit after being down 11 at the half and battled back to take a 4th quarter lead before succumbing to a late Phoenix surged sparked by Chris Paul. The Pelicans have gone an extremely profitable 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss during its previous game. Conversely, Phoenix is 0-4 SU during their last 4 immediately following a win. The Pelicans have shot an impressive 48.5% from the field and made 40.2% of its 3-point shot attempts throughout the first 3 games of this series. Give me New Orleans plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Bulls 8:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Bulls +3.0 (5*) For starters, Chicago is an outstanding 27-14 SU and 25-16 (61%) ATS at home this season. That in itself lays a foundation for betting value on the home underdog in this matchup. Furthermore, Chicago is 47-37 (.560) in all games this season. Milwaukee is a poor 14-26 ATS versus teams with a winning record and that includes 4-14 ATS when facing opponents with a win percentage of .510 to .600, and they were outscored by an average of 3.7 points per game. Any NBA Playoff home underdog with a win percentage of .522 or better that’s playing in a Conference Quarterfinal series that’s tied at 1-1, and they’re coming off an away underdog of 7.5-points or greater SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1995. Those home underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me the Bulls plus the points. |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Memphis @ Minnesota 7:30 ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*) The Memphis Grizzlies have enjoyed an excellent season that earned them the #2 Western Conference see. However, they’re not your typical #2 seed because of their combination of youth and limited NBA Playoff experience. This is a tough spot for them to come away with a win considering they’re playing on the road for a first time. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU during its previous 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 13-1 SU in their last 14 conference home games with their only loss coming to the #1 seed Phoenix Suns. Give me Minnesota. |
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04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Brooklyn @ Boston 7:00 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Boston -3.0 (10*) The Nets have shot the ball extremely well over their last 3 games. Nevertheless, Boston has been red-hot offensively for a more extended period. Boston has shot 49% or better in 10 of their last 13 games. The Celtics have also scored 115 points or more in 11 of its previous 13 contests. Throughout their last 5, Boston has converted on a scalding hot 42.9% of their 3-point shots and that includes averaging 18 makes per game. Additionally, during regular season action, Boston was #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG), #1 in field goal percentage defense (43.4%), and #1 in 3-point percentage defense (33.9%). Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Phoenix 10:00 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: New Orleans +9.5 (5*) New Orleans dropped Game 1 of this series 110-99. Nonetheless, the Pelicans have been a resilient bunch throughout the final stretch of regular season action while going 6-1 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss. Conversely, Phoenix is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win and lost by an average of 6.3 points per game. Moreover, they were a double-digit favorite in 2 of those 3 contests. Phoenix has also gone a poor 13-24 ATS this season following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer, and that includes 1-9 ATS in their last 10. Give me New Orleans plus the points. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Memphis 8;30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Memphis -6.5 (5*) The Grizzlies have lost 2 straight heading into today’s game. Memphis has lost 3 straight games only twice this season with the last occurrence happening just short of 4 months ago. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone 6-2 SU&ATS this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and includes 3-0 SU&ATS during its previous 3. Memphis also an outstanding 30-12 SU and 27-15 ATS (64%) at home this season. With that being said, I look them to bounce back with a decisive win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Memphis is coming off a terrible 130-117 home loss as a 6.5-point favorite in Game 1. That defeat dropped their season record to 56-27 (.675). Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 5.5 or greater that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they allowed 99 points or more, and they possess a season win percentage of .647 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 14-3 ATS (82.3%) since 2012. |
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04-19-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Miami 7:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Atlanta +7.5 (5*) Atlanta is coming off a poor performance in Game 1 while losing 115-91. However, the Hawks are 9-1 SU in their last 10 following a loss and includes 6-0 SU during its previous 6. Additionally, Atlanta was held below 40% shooting for a first time in 18 games. Conversely, Miami held an opponent to less than 40% shooting for the first time in 18 games. It’s highly unlikely for that to occur again today which improves the underdog Hawks chance of covering exponentially. Furthermore, since 2/6, Atlanta has gone 3-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they scored fewer than 100 points. Give me Atlanta plus the points. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Denver @ Golden State 10:00 ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Denver +7.0 (5*) Golden State looked like a serious world champion contender their series opening 123-107 win. That very well be the case. However, I truly believe that public betting patterns on today’s matchup which heavily favor the Warriors on both tickets and money wagered is an overreaction. Counting their regular season finale, Denver enters today on a 2-game losing streak. Nonetheless, since 11/29/2021, the Nuggets ate 5-1 SU following 2 consecutive losses and that includes 3-0 SU during away games. Give me Denver plus the points. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah @ Dallas 5:30 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Dallas +5.5 (5*) Dallas will once again be without star point-guard Luke Doncic and the line has been adjusted accordingly. They’re hopeful that Doncic will be able to return in this series at some point. Dallas can ill afford to go back Utah down 2-0 in the series after suffering a 99-93 loss in Game 1, and I fully expect them to play with a high degree of desperation tonight. Dallas has gone 12-2 SU in their last 14 following a loss. The Mavericks are also 11-3 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 95 points or fewer and outscored their opponents by an average of 9.9 points per contest. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
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04-18-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Toronto +7.5 (5*) Toronto is coming off a 131-111 loss in the series opener on Saturday. However, this has been a resilient Raptors team. Toronto is an impressive 7-1 SU on the road this season immediately following a loss by 15 points or more. The Raptors also lost their regular season finale. Nevertheless, they’re 7-1 SU in their last 8 this season following 2 consecutive losses. Toronto is also 16-15 SU as a road underdog this season and bettors that risked $100 per game on them made a sizable net profit of $1050. Conversely, the 76ers have gone an uninspiring 9-10 SU at home this season immediately following an ATS cover. Give me Toronto plus the points. |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Denver @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Golden State -6.5 (10*) Stephen Curry will return to the lineup for the first time since 3/16. The Warriors went 1-6 SU in their first 7 games without Curry following his injury. However, they’ve rebounded to win their final 5 regular season games and by a decisive margin of 143.2 points per contest. The Warriors have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Denver while winning by 15.3 points per game. Furthermore, since the 2015 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS in 1st round contests in which they were a favorite of 6.0 to 9.0 and won by a massive average of 22.7 points per game. Give me Golden State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Cleveland 7:35 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Cleveland +2.5 (5*) Atlanta has unequivocally been the better team than Cleveland throughout the final stretch of regular season action. However, I just don’t trust Atlanta on the road and especially as a favorite versus a team with a winning record. Specifically speaking, Atlanta has gone a dismal 0-9 SU&ATS in their last 9 away when facing a team with a winning record. That hardly bodes well for a road favorite in a high stakes game like this one. Additionally, Atlanta is 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road this season. So, their road struggles go beyond only teams with a winning record. Although Cleveland is coming off a 115-108 loss at Brooklyn this past Tuesday. I was impressed by them not quitting after falling behind by 22 in the 3rd quarter and battling back to make it a competitive game in the final minutes. Give me Cleveland plus the small number. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Spurs @ Pelicans (Keuchel) 9:30 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Pelicans -5.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. San Antonio opened as a 5.0-point road underdog despite taking 3 of 4 versus New Orleans this season. Despite over 60% of tickets and better than 70% of the money being wagered on the Spurs at this present time, the number has moved to 5.5 at some books. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this matchup. However, I’m not taking the bait. If it looks to me good to be too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me the Pelicans minus the points. |
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04-13-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Berrios) @ Yankees (Cole) 7:05 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (+135) (5*) Jose Berrios has struggled in his 4 career starts @ Yankee Stadium with a 5.50 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Berrios was horrible in 3 spring training starts and that carried over to his 2022 debut. Berrios had a massive 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in the spring. During his lone regular season start, Berrios lasted only 1/3 of an inning and allowed 4 earned runs. Gerrit Cole made 5 starts versus Toronto last season and posted a solid 3.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in those outings. The Yankees bullpen has a brilliant 0.99 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Despite a shaky performance in his season debut, Cole has recorded a career 2.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP during 39 starts in April. Give me the Yankees on the run-line. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
LA Clippers @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Minnesota -2.5 (5*) The Clippers were the hotter team in this matchup during the final stretch of regular season action. Afterall, they enter the postseason a 5-game win streak. However, 4 of those 5 games were played at home. The Clippers went 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 on the road. The last time these teams met, the Clippers sustained a 122-104 home loss in a game they were a 3.0-point favorite. The Clippers are an abysmal 1-11 SU&ATS this season when playing with revenge stemming from a home favorite SU loss and were outscored by 8.6 points per contest. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their previous 7 as a home favorite of 5.5 or less and won by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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04-10-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Padres (Snell) @ Diamondbacks (Smith) 4:10 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Padres -1.5 (+100) (5*) Arizona has only managed to score 6 runs on 10 hits in the first 3 games of this series. Things don’t figure to get much easier against San Diego southpaw Blake Snell this afternoon. Snell made 4 starts for San Diego versus Arizona last season and had an exceptional 0.76 ERA in those outings. Furthermore, he recorded 37 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings during those starts. Since the start of last season, Arizona has gone an abysmal 12-37 versus left-handed starting pitchers. Arizona starting pitched Caleb Smith made 2 starts against San Diego last season and was awful while posting a massive 16.62 ERA. Give me the Padres on the run-line. |
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04-09-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cubs | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Cubs (Steele) 2:20 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (+110) (5*) Justin Steele made 2 starts versus Milwaukee last year and allowed 4 home runs in just 9.0 innings pitched. Since 9/14/2020, Brandon Woodruff has made 6 starts versus the Cubs and posted a brilliant 0.51 ERA and that includes allowed 0 earned runs in 16.0 innings pitched at Wrigley Field. Woodruff is 28-8 in his team starts in his career during the 1st half of the season. Despite losing their season opener on Thursday to the Cubs, Milwaukee has gone 28-11 in division road games since the start of last season and is 12-6 at Wrigley Field since 2019. Give me the Brewers on the run-line. |
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04-08-22 | Bucks v. Pistons +5.5 | 131-101 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Detroit 7:10 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Detroit +5.5 (5*) Milwaukee is coming off last night’s huge home win over Boston as it pertains to playoff seeding. They won that contest 127-121 but failed to cover as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Since the start of the 2017-2018 NBA season, teams coming off a home SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing their 3rd game in 4 days, resulted in those teams going an awful 14-36 SU (28%). Conversely, unlike Milwaukee, Detroit will be well rested and playing in only their 2nd game in 5 days. The Pistons have gone an outstanding 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games while winning 10 of those contests straight. Detroit is also an extremely profitable 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 11-1 ATS during their previous 12 as an underdog of 8.5 or less. For a team that’s been realistically out of playoff contention for a few months the Pistons have competed hard down the final stretch of regular season action. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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04-07-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 115 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Pirates (Brubaker) @ Cardinals (Wainwright) 4:15 PM ET Game# 973-974 Play On: Cardinals -1.5 (+115) (10*) Adam Wainwright has gone 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus Pittsburgh with a dominating 0.73 ERA while doing so. J.T. Brubaker is coming off a season which saw him go an abysmal 1-15 in his team starts on the road. The Pirates as a team were an awful 24-57 in away games last season. Brubaker was 0-4 versus St. Louis last year with a lofty 6.65 ERA. The Pirates right-hander also allowed an alarmingly high 6 home runs in 21 2/3 innings pitched in those 4 outings. Today’s weather forecast is call for winds of 18 MPH blowing out to right-centerfield which will leave Brubaker even more vulnerable. Give me the Cardinals on the run-line for a Top Play wager. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Utah 9:10 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Utah -5.5 (5*) I like this Memphis Grizzlies team a lot. However, the Grizzlies are locked into the #2 seed in the Western Conference. They can’t catch #1 seed Phoenix and no other team can catch them as well. As a result, they’re not going to take any unnecessary risks with star point-guard Ja Morant who is currently out with a knee injury. The Memphis coaching staff has also been monitoring the minutes of key players to keep them fresh for the upcoming playoffs. Utah has yet to secure one of the top 6 seeds in the Western Conference which would enable them from have to participate in the play-in tournament which is a win or go home 1-game format. Utah has lost 6 of their last 7 games but all those losses came on the road. The Jazz have gone 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS during its previous 13 at home which includes 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 8.0 or less. Give me Utah minus the points. |
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04-05-22 | Hawks v. Raptors -3.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Toronto -3.5 (5*) Despite being a playoff team for a 2nd consecutive season, Atlanta hasn’t been good in regular season away games during that stretch. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, the Hawks are a poor 15-28 SU and 13-30 ATS in their last 43 regular season away games. Furthermore, Atlanta is an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games this season when facing a team with a winning record (Toronto 45-33). The Hawks are also a money draining 3-11 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5-points. Toronto is coming off a home loss to a red-hot Miami Heat team. Nonetheless, the Raptors are still a sparkling 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. Additionally, Toronto is 3-0 SU&ATS in their previous 3 following a loss and won by 11.0 points per game. Give me Toronto minus the points. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Villanova vs. Kansas 6:09 PM ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Villanova +4.5 (5*) Kansas has been stifling defensively throughout their 4 NCAA Tournament games while holding opponents to 59.7 points per contest and limiting them to 35.6% shooting or worse on each occasion. However, Villanova has proven throughout the course of this season is they can win even on a bad shooting night. The Wildcats are 6-2 SU this year when shooting less than 40% and includes 4-0 in their last 4. Villanova has won their last 9 and 14 of its previous 15 games. Their only setback during that stretch was a 2-point loss at Connecticut. Speaking of defense, Villanova has held its last 5 opponents to 53.6 points per game and a mere 36.4% shooting. Lastly, I will take Villanova head coach Jay Wright every time over his counterpart Bill Self when it comes to game plan strategy in a big game environment. Give me Villanova plus the points. |
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03-31-22 | Xavier v. Texas A&M -4 | 73-72 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Xavier vs. Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: Texas A&M -4.0 (5*) Xavier has been impressive in the NIT Tournament. However, keep in mind that the Musketeers were a dismal 4-10 SU in their last 14 games prior to the NIT. Conversely, Texas A&M has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. Their only loss in that sequence came against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Final when they were playing its 4th game in 4 days. The Aggies have been sensational defensively on the defensive end of the floor since the NIT began. During their 4 NIT wins, Texas A&M has allowed a mere 57.5 points per game and held opponents to a combined 36.2% shooting. Lastly, it’s seldom a bad idea to take the team that’s been more consistent over a longer period time than the alternative. Give me Texas A&M minus the points. |
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03-30-22 | Wolves v. Raptors -2.5 | 102-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Toronto -2.5 (5*) Toronto has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0 or less and won by a substantial average of 18.7 points per game. Minnesota is averaging 15 made 3-point shots per game this season. Conversely, Toronto is 9-1 SU&ATS this season versus opponents that are making 14 or more 3-point shots per contest. The Raptors are a stellar 9-2 SU in their last 11 and includes 3 consecutive home wins. Give me Toronto minus the points. |
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03-30-22 | Heat v. Celtics -5 | 106-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Miami @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Boston -5.0 (5*) Miami is coming off a convincing 123-100 home win over a hapless Sacramento Kings team. That win snapped an 0-4 SU&ATS losing streak. It also ended a money draining 0-7 ATS funk by the Heat. Boston is coming off a 115-112 overtime loss at Toronto. It was a game effort by the Celtics considering they were missing their 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown (23.4 PPG) and Jayson Tatum (27.1 PPG). Both players are listed as probable for today’s game. Despite that loss, Boston is a red-hot 25-5 SU and 19-9-2 ATS throughout its previous 30 games. The Celtics are also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 18.6 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points. |
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03-28-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Hornets | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Denver @ Charlotte 7:10 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Denver -3.5 (5*) Charlotte is coming off a huge win at Brooklyn on Sunday with respect to Eastern Conference postseason implications. However, the Hornets are an abysmal 1-12 SU this season when playing with no rest and were outscored by a massive 17.9 points per game. Additionally, this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 10 days. Denver has gone an outstanding 7-1 SU in their last 8 away games. The Nuggets have been extremely efficient offensively during its last 8 games. During that stretch, they averaged 118.3 points scored per game and shot 51.3% from the field. The current total in this contest is 233.5. Denver is 11-3 ATS this season in away games with a total of 220.0 or greater and outscored the opposition by an average of 9.5 points per contest. Give me Denver minus the points. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Miami vs. Kansas 2:20 PM ET Game# 645-646 Play On: Kansas -5.5 (5*) The main reason we will win and cover this game is the huge edge that Kansas will have over Miami on the glass. During their first 3 NCAA Tournament games Kansas was a huge +11.0 rebound per contest. Conversely, Miami is a -9.3 rebounds per game throughout its 3 NCAA Tournament contests. The Jayhawks have also been suffocating on defense while holding each of their 3 opponents in the Big Dance to 35.6% shooting or worse. Lastly, the Jayhawks will enter this contest riding an 8-game winning streak. Give me Kansas minus the points. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Arkansas vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On: Duke -3.5 (10*) Arkansas is coming off a huge emotional upset win over the #1 ranked team in the country Gonzaga. Now with just 1-day of rest, they have to face another blue-blood in Duke with a legendary head coach is retiring at their season’s end. Granted that the Razorbacks win over Gonzaga was an impressive one. Nevertheless, let’s not forget that they had narrow 4 and 5-point wins over #12 seed New Mexico State and #13 seed Vermont during the first 2 rounds. Duke is a very well-balanced team. The Blue Devils are #2 nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 121.0 points scored per 100 possessions. Duke is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.4 points per their opponent’s 100 offensive possessions. Arkansas has been dominant defensively in their previous 2 games. However, Duke has averaged 82.2 points scored per game while shooting a scalding hot 54% from the field throughout its previous 9 contests. Comparatively, Arkansas has shot 39.4% from the field and made a dismal 25.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over their last 5 games. Arkansas also has scored 22.8% of their points from the free throw line this season which is 8th highest in the country. Conversely, Duke has allowed their opponents a mere 12 free throw attempts per game this season. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-26-22 | Houston -2.5 v. Villanova | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Houston vs. Villanova 6:09 PM ET Game# 639-640 Play On: Houston -2.5 (5*) For starters we have a #5 seed as a favorite over a #2 seed in an Elite 8 matchup. That speaks volumes to me in terms of what the odds-makers are thinking. Simply put, they are telling you that Houston is a slightly better team in this contest. Furthermore, Houston has been dominant in their 3 NCAA Tournament game with each win coming by 12 points or more. During their previous 2 games they knocked off #1 seed Arizona and #4 seed Illinois. Both teams entered those games versus Houston with impressive offensive season statistics. Yet, the Cougars held Arizona 60 points and 33.3% shooting and Illinois to 53 points and 34.0%. They also forced 17 turnovers versus Arizona and 14 against Illinois. The Cougars current NCAA Tournament run was preceded by going 3-0 SU&ATS during their own conference tournament. They won those conference tournament matchups by an average of 17.0 points per game and each came by double-digit margins. Simply put, Houston enters today as a red-hot team. Granted Villanova is also 3-0 SU&ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve faced a #15, #7, and #11 seed to advance. So, their level of competition they faced is nowhere near what Houston encountered. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7.5 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
Providence vs. Kansas 7:29 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Kansas -7.5 (10*) I have been harsh on Kansas all season. However, this matchup versus Providence suits them well and I’m calling for a decisive Jayhawks win and cover. Throughout their last 6 games, Kansas has allowed just 63.5 points per contest and limited their opponents to a combined 37.5% shooting. Additionally, Kansas is 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 10.0 or less and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. This is a well-balanced Kansas team that #6 nationally in offensive efficiency and #27 defensively. Granted Providence shot 51.9% in their 79-51 blowout win over #12 seed Richmond in their previous game. However, it marked the first time since 1/23 that the Friars had shot 50% or better from the field. Furthermore, despite that good shooting game, Providence has made only 40.3% of their field goal attempts over its last 5 games. It also must be noted that providence faced a #13 and #12 seed in their 2 NCAA Tournament wins. They’ll be stepping up in class to take on the #2 seed Jayhawks (30-6). Give me Kansas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-24-22 | Houston +1.5 v. Arizona | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
Houston vs. Arizona 9:59 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: Houston +1.5 (5*) This is exactly why I hate filling out brackets. Before the tournament began, Arizona was my pick to win it all. Now after watching both Houston and Arizona in their first 2 games of the tournament, I’m convinced this is a bad matchup for the Wildcats. Additionally, doesn’t it strike you as strange that a #1 seed like Arizona is just a 1.5-point favorite versus a #5 in the Sweet 16? The sportsbooks are begging you take take Arizona and I’ll gladly turn down the invite to do so. Arizona narrowly escaped with an overtime win over #9 seed TCU in their previous game. There was a huge red flag being waved despite that Wildcats win. TCU had an enormous 18 offensive rebounds in that contest despite being considerably outsized. Conversely, Houston has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country annually since Kelvin Sampson took over as their head coach. As a matter of fact, Houston is #3 nationally this season in that category while turning 37.3% of their missed field goal attempts into offensive rebounds. That relentless offensive rebounding prowess wears down opponents while forcing them to defend multiple offensive possessions on numerous occasions throughout the course of a game. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs. Duke 9:39 PM ET Game# 629-630 Play On: Texas Tech -110 (10*) We have the lower ranked and lower seeded team as a favorite in this contest. Public bettors have flocked to the window early to bet on Duke just as I expected. However, like I said on numerous occasions, my trust lies in the oddsmakers uncanny ability to set an accurate line 24/7 and 7 days a week over all else. The Red Raiders weren’t at their best in their 59-53 second round win over Notre Dame but still walked away with a win. Nevertheless, their calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. Notre Dame entered that 2nd round matchup having shot 50% or better in 5 consecutive games. Texas Tech forced the Fighting Irish into a horrible 32% shooting day. The Red Raiders have now held opponents to less than 40% shooting and 62 points or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games. Furthermore, Texas Tech is #1 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 84.4 points per opponent 100 offensive possessions. How good a rating is that? The next best team in terms of defensive deficiency that’s part of the ‘Sweet 16 field is Gonzaga at 89.7. Give me Texas Tech for a money line wager. |
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03-23-22 | Suns v. Wolves +1.5 | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Phoenix @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off Monday’s 2-point loss at Dallas but were able to get inside the number as a 2.5-point dog. That makes the Timberwolves 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Additionally, the current total in this game is 238.0. Minnesota has gone a superb 11-0 SU&ATS at home this season whenever there was a total of 230.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 17.6 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the small number. |
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03-23-22 | Jazz +5 v. Celtics | 97-125 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Utah @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Utah +5.0 (5*) Utah is coming off a 114-106 loss at Brooklyn in their previous game. Nevertheless, the Jazz are 6-0 SU in their last 6 immediately following a loss. Utah hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 1/30. The Celtics are the hottest team in the NBA right now. However, they’re 0-4 SU&ATS in the last 4 versus Utah. Give me Utah plus the points. |
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03-23-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Detroit 7:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Detroit +5.0 (5*) Atlanta will be playing with no rest after last night’s 6-point win at Madison Square Garden. However, the Hawks have gone a terrible 1-9 ATS this season following a win by 6-points or fewer. The Hawks are also a dismal 2-10 SU this season following a road win. Detroit has gone a mediocre 7-8 SU in their last 15 games but they’re an extremely profitable 13-2 ATS in those contests. You may be surprised to know that Detroit is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus Atlanta. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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03-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Texas A&M -2.5 | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 617-618 Play On: Texas A&M -2.5 (5*) A statistic that jumped off the page at me is the fact that Wake Forest has committed 16.7 turnovers per contest in their last 3 games. That’s a huge concern heading into this matchup versus a Texas A&M team that forces 17 turnover per game this season. Additionally, Wake Forest has allowed their opponents to attempt 24 free throw attempts per game over its last 5 contests. On the other hand, Texas A&M has gone an excellent 80.9% from the free throw line during its previous 5 games. Texas A&M is a red-hot 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS during their last 10 games. The Aggies lone loss in that sequence came in the SEC Tournament Championship Game versus #5 Tennessee when playing their 4th game in 4 days. Texas A&M have been terrific defensively throughout their previous 5 games while holding opponents to just 62.6 points per game and 37.4% shooting. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number. |
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03-22-22 | Clippers +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Clippers @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Clippers +7.0 (10*) Denver has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those losses came by double-digit margins. The Clippers have made a respectable 36.5% of their 3-point shot attempts this season. That’s significant as it pertains to this matchup considering Denver is 1-8 ATS at home this season versus opponents possessing a 36% or better 3-point shot conversion rate and they were outscored by an average of 7.0 points per game. The Clippers have gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. However, they haven’t lost 4-games in a row all season long. As a matter of fact, the Clippers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following 3 consecutive losses and with an average victory margin of 8.7 points per game. Los Angeles has played Denver 3 times this season with all those contests be decided by 3-points or less and the Clippers were 3-0 ATS. Give me the Clippers plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-22-22 | Hawks v. Knicks +1.5 | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Knicks 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Knicks +1.5 (5*) New York has Atlanta’s number this season having gone 3-0 SU&ATS versus the Hawks with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Since the start of last season, New York has gone an extremely profitable 35-14 ATS (71%) when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Conversely, Atlanta has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 road games when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by 8.5 points per contest. Give me New York plus the small number. |
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03-21-22 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Dallas 8:40 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Minnesota +2.5 (10*) Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off losses in each of the previous 2. Conversely, this will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a red-hot 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 and 4-0 SU&ATS during its previous 4 games. Throughout their last 5 contests, Minnesota has scored a lofty 126.8 points per game, shot 48.3% from the field, made 41.1% of its 3-point attempts, and went 88.1% at the free throw line. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona -9.5 | Top | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
TCU vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET Game# 829-830 Play On: Arizona -9.5 (10*) TCU is coming off an extremely impressive 69-42 win over Seton Hall on Friday. However, the Horned Frogs have gone just 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a win in its previous game. Additionally, there’s a sizable disparity in the opponent they’ll face today compared to a Seton Hall team that was average at best over the 2nd half of their season. TCU has scored less than 70 points in each of its last 5 and 9 of their previous 11 games. That’s problematic when it comes to this matchup when considering Arizona has scored 81 points or more during its last 7 and 11 of their previous 12 games. The Wildcats have also shot 49% or better during 11 of its previous 13 games. Arizona is far the better team in this game and will walk away with a decisive win and cover. Give me Arizona minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-20-22 | Texas v. Purdue -3.5 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas vs. Purdue 8:40 PM ET Game# 819-820 Play On: Purdue -3.5 (5*) The Longhorns 1st round win came over a Virginia Tech teams that needed 4 wins in 4 days in the ACC Tournament to just make it to the “Big Dance”. That win over the Hokies also halted an 0-3 SU&ATS Texas skid. As good as Texas’ overall defensive number are, they did allow opponents to shoot 48% or better in 5 of their last 10 games. Purdue easily disposed of Yale during their 78-56 win in 1st round action. The Boilermakers have been dominant on the boards all season long which is further proven by their +10 rebound per game average. Purdue is also an excellent 3-point shooting team who has converted on 38.9% of those long-distance attempts. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech 7:10 PM ET Game# 827-828 Play On: Texas Tech -7.5 (5*) Notre Dame will struggle versus an extremely physical Texas Tech team that is outstanding defensively. This will also be the Fighting Irish’s 3rd game in the past 5 days after coming off wins over Rutgers in overtime and a slumping Alabama team on Friday. As I previously mention, Texas Teach is outstanding on the defensive end of the floor. Throughout their previous 5 games the Red Raiders have allowed just 56.8 points per game and held their opponents to a mere 36.6% shooting. Texas Tech dismantled the Big Sky Conference champion Montana State in their opening round game 97-62 while shooting a blistering hot 66.2% in that contest. Give me Texas Tech minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4.5 | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Iowa State vs. Wisconsin 6:10 PM ET Game# 821-822 Play On: Wisconsin -4.5 (5*) The #11 seed Iowa State Cyclones upset LSU on Friday to advance. However, that was a LSU team that had their head coach and top assistant fired just a week prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament. They’ll be facing a more stable and better team on Sunday who won’t be vulnerable. Colgate gave Wisconsin all they can handle on Friday before the Badgers pulled away late for a 7-point win. For all intent and purposes, this will be a Wisconsin home game that will be played in Milwaukee. That specific factor will play a large part not only in the outcome of this game but also aid in a decisive win and cover for the Badgers. Give me Wisconsin minus the points. |
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03-20-22 | Houston -4.5 v. Illinois | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Houston vs. Illinois 7:45 PM ET Game# 825-826 Play On: Houston -4.5 (5*) This line tells me all I need to know. We have the lower seeded Houston Cougars as a 4.5-point favorite over #4 seed Illinois (23-9). Illinois was lucky to advance after a narrow 54-53 win over #13 seed UT-Chattanooga. The Illini led for just 30 seconds in that contest and in my eyes was thoroughly outplayed with all being considered. Illinois has been in an offensive funk over its last 4 contest while averaging only 62.8 points scored per game and shoot a poor 38.2%. That’s not good news for Illinois backers when considering their team will be up against one of the best defensive teams in the country that holds opponents to 59.1 points per game and a mere 37.6% shooting. #5 seed Houston (30-5) is coming off an extremely impressive 82-68 win over a very good UAB team. The Cougars have gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 as a favorite of 3.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game. Houston has also gone an extremely profitable 7-1 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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03-19-22 | St. Peter's v. Murray State -8 | 70-60 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
St. Peter’s vs. Murray State 7:45 PM ET Game# 789-790 Play On: Murray State -8.5 (5*) Most people cheer for a Cinderella team in the NCAA Tournament, St. Peter’s certain qualifies in this regard. The #15 seed Peacocks are coming off a monumental upset over Kentucky in a game they closed as an 18.0-point underdog. Since the1990, NCAA Tournament teams with a seed of #13 or worse that are coming of a 1st round upset have been a huge fade in the following game. St. Peter’s will be facing a 31-2 Murray State team that survived and advance in an opening 92-87 overtime win over San Francisco. Any 2nd Round NCAA Tournament #13 through #16 seed that’s an underdog of 6.0 or greater, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better has gone 0-12 ATS since 1990. Additionally, they were beaten in those contests by an average of 16.8 points per game. Give me Murray State minus the points. |
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03-19-22 | St. Mary's v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
St. Mary’s vs. UCLA 7:10 PM ET Game# 797-798 Play On: UCLA -2.5 (10*) St. Mary’s looked terrific in their 82-53 rout of Indiana on Thursday. Conversely, UCLA closed the game on a 15-4 run in their narrow 57-53 win over Akron in a game they were a sizable 13.5-points favorite. As a result, we’ve seen a plethora of early bets and money being wagered on St. Mary’s. I’m predicting UCLA will bounce back with a huge performance on Saturday. This is an experienced UCLA team that advanced to the Final Four a season ago and that will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me UCLA minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee -5.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
Michigan vs. Tennessee 5:15 PM ET Game# 787-788 Play On: Tennessee -5.5 (5*) Michigan overcame an early 15-point deficit to beat #6 seed Colorado State on Thursday 75-63. However, the Wolverines are a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS during their last 5 following a win in their previous contest and were outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game. Additionally, they allowed an alarmingly high 78.6 points per game throughout those 5 losses. That’s not good news for Wolverine backers when considering they’ll be facing a very good defensive team in Tennessee. The Volunteers have held their last 5 and 10 of their previous 11 opponents to 39.6% shooting or less. Tennessee has also allowed 64 points or fewer in 11 of its last 13 games. Tennessee has gone 13-1 SU in their previous 14 contests which includes a current 8-game win streak (+12.8 PPG). Give me Tennessee minus the points. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate v. Wisconsin -7.5 | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
Colgate vs. Wisconsin 9:50 PM ET Game# 761-762 Play On: Wisconsin -7.5 (10*) This is an experienced Colgate team that took Arkansas down to the wire in last year’s NCAA Tournament. However, this game will be played in Milwaukee which will for all intents and purposes be a Wisconsin home game. Unlike last year when a neutral site crowd energized the sizable underdog Colgate Raiders, that won’t be the case on Friday night. The Badgers were regular season co-champion in a conference that sent 9 teams to the “Big Dance”. Don’t expect them to be flat on Friday. It will be quite the contrary. Give me Wisconsin minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-18-22 | Iowa State v. LSU -4 | 59-54 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Iowa State vs. LSU 7:20 PM ET Game# 759-760 Play On: LSU -4.0 (5*) I was on the local ABC and Fox networks here in Western New York for my predictions for the NCAA Tournament. When asked about this game, I not only predicted LSU would win, but they would hold Iowa State in the high 40’s to low 50’s while doing so. I stand by that statement as bold as that may have sounded. Much ado will be made about LSU firing their head coach and top assistant right after the SEC Tournament. However, this isn’t the spot that the Tigers will be affected by those decisions. Iowa State has been held to 54 points or fewer on 7 separate occasions this season and includes 2 of their previous 3 games. Conversely, LSU has held 7 opponents this season to 59 points or fewer. The Tigers have held opponents to a mere 38.7% shooting this season. Iowa State started the season 12-0 but has gone just 8-12 since. By the way, LSU went 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Give me LSU minus the points. |
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03-18-22 | Miami-FL +2 v. USC | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
Miami vs. USC 3:10 PM ET Game# 755-756 Play On: Miami +2.0 (5*) USC is just 1 of 3 PAC-12 teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The other 2 were UCLA and Arizona who the Trojans went a combined 1-4 SU against. The strength of USC is their defensive play. Although, over their last 6 contests USC has allowed 76.0 points per game. Despite it being a down year for the ACC, I still consider Miami as being a vastly underrated team. The Hurricanes were knocked off in the ACC Tournament Semifinals when losing to #9 Duke 80-76. However, Miami has been resilient this season which is evidenced by them going 8-1 SU following a loss. During their last 6 games, Miami averaged 76.3 points scored per contest and shot a sizzling hot 52.2% from the field. Give me Miami plus the small number. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue -16 | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Yale vs. Purdue 2:00 PM ET Game# 765-766 Play On: Purdue -16.0 (5*) The Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs are in over their heads in this matchup. During their non-conference portion of their schedule, Yale went 0-4 versus teams in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field (Seaton Hall, Vermont, St. Mary’s, Auburn) and lost by an enormous 23.3 points per game. Additionally, the Bulldogs were a -10.3 rebounds per game during those lopsided defeats. That’s not good news for Yale backers considering Purdue is one of the nation’s leading rebounding team at +9 per contest. Speaking og Purdue, they finished 3rd in the Big 10 regular season standing and only 1.0 game behind co-champions Wisconsin and Illinois. The Boilermakers also made it to the Big 10 Conference Tournament final where they fell to the red-hot Iowa Hawkeyes. Purdue went an unscathed 3-0 SU&ATS in non-conference games versus teams (North Carolina, Villanova, Wright State) in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
Vermont vs. Arkansas 9:20 PM ET Game# 721-722 Play On: Vermont +5.5 (10*) This line jumped right off the screen at first glance. Here we have the #17 Arkansas Razorbacks from the powerful SEC 25-8 as just a 5.0-point favorite versus a team that won the America East Conference. However, this is a Vermont Catamounts team that has an outstanding 28-5 record and that includes 22-1 during its previous 23 games. The Catamounts also went 2-1 in non-conference play versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Their wins came versus the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs and the other against the Patriot League automatic qualifier the Colgate Raiders. Their loss came at #13 Providence by 10. The Catamounts defeated UMBC in the conference title game by a lopsided 82-43 score. Since the start of last season, Vermont has won 8 games by 30 points or more, and they followed the previous 7 by going 7-0 SU&ATS while winning by a substantial 24.6 points per contest. Give me Vermont plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-17-22 | Richmond v. Iowa -10 | 67-63 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
Richmond vs. Iowa 3:10 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: Iowa -10.0 (5*) Richmond entered the Atlantic Conference Tournament with just an 18-12 record and no whispers of being considered for an NCAA Tournament at-large-bid. So, they just went out and won 4-games in 4 days to capture an automatic bid. The only other A-10 team in the NCAA Tournament is Davidson. The Spiders didn’t face any team in the non-conference part of their schedule that is part of this year’s NCAA Tournament field. Iowa enters the dance having gone 12-2 in their last 14 games which included being the Big 10 Conference Tournament champions. That’s a noteworthy item since there’s 9 Big 10 teams in this NCAA Tournament field. The Hawkeyes are an offensive juggernaut and especially recently. Iowa has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Give me Iowa minus the points. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State +2.5 v. Providence | 57-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
South Dakota State vs. Providence 12:40 PM ET Game# 741-742 Play On: South Dakota State +2.5 (5*) This line confirms what I have believed for the past 2 months. The #13 Providence Friars aren’t as good as their #13 ranking indicates. Yes, they won the Big East regular season title which is no easy feat. However, in their conference tournament they were upset in the conference semifinals 85-57 by unranked Creighton in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. When doing a quick study on KenPom it further validates that Providence is a flawed team despite their stellar 25-5 record. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Providence is an abysmal 1-11 ATS when playing on a neutral court and were outscored by an average of 9.9 points per game. The Friars have gone 1-7 SU since 1997 in the NCAA Tournament. Speaking of stellar records, South Dakota State is 30-4 which includes a current 21-game win streak. The jackrabbits can flat out shoot the basketball which is proven by them shooting 50% or better in 23 of their previous 28 games. If the prerequisite for an NCAA upset in an underdog’s ability to make 3-point shots. Then South Dakota State emphatically checks that box while making 44.9% of their 3-point shot attempts for the season. The Jackrabbits are also averaging 86.7 points scored per game this season. With those types of offensive numbers, your seldom out of any game no matter the deficit. Give me South Dakota State plus the small number. |
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03-17-22 | Michigan v. Colorado State +1.5 | 75-63 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
Michigan vs. Colorado State 12:15 PM ET Game# 727-728 Play On: Colorado State +1.5 (5*) Michigan somehow received an NCAA Tournament bid and 1st Round bye with an uninspiring 17-14 record. Furthermore, there are even a favorite in this matchup versus the #24 Colorado State Rams (25-5). This is a simple case of ignoring the recognizable brand in Michigan State and going with the underdog that I firmly believe is the better team. Colorado State is 1 of 4 Mountain West Conference teams made the NCAA Tournament field. They also captured non-conference wins over #18 St. Mary’s (25-7) and Creighton who is the #9 seed in the Midwest region. They also won both regular season meetings versus conference rival and #23 ranked Boise State Broncos. The Rams are very good! Give me Colorado State plus the small number. |
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03-15-22 | Indiana v. Wyoming +4.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Wyoming vs. Indiana 9:10 PM ET Game# 665-666 Play On: Wyoming +4.5 (10*) Indiana is certainly the bigger brand than Wyoming and plays in a better Conference. Which aligns itself with an enormous amount of early money being wagered on the Hoosiers. However, the Mountain West Conference was vastly underrated this season which is evidenced by their 4 NCAA Tournament berths and 2 of those teams (Boise State, Colorado State) being currently being ranked in the Top 25. It must be noted, Indiana has gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 games versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Wyoming is coming off a loss against #23 Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been resilient this season which is proven by their 6-1 SU record following a loss. They were also an extremely profitable 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Give me Wyoming plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-14-22 | Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Milwaukee @ Utah 10:10 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Utah +1.5 (10*) You may be surprised to know that Milwaukee has gone a dismal 4-11 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. The Bucks defensive play has left much to be desired of late as they’ve allowed 117.2 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 49.5% and convert on 38.5% of its 3-point shot attempts. Utah has won 9 consecutive home games and that in itself gives the underdog Jazz ample betting value. Utah has outscored their opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game this season. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Milwaukee is a bankroll draining 11-27 ATS on the road when facing opponents with a +4.0 or greater point per game differential on the season. Utah won at Milwaukee 107-95 in late October. Give me Utah plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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03-13-22 | Texas A&M +6.5 v. Tennessee | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: Texas A&M +6.5 (5*) The Texas A&M Aggies have caught fire at the right time evidenced by them going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. They were a longshot to make the NCAA Tournament at the end of regular season play. However, here they are playing their 4th game in 4 days and on an improbable run to winning a conference tournament championship and automatic NCAA Tournament bid. During the 3 games in the SEC Tournament the Aggies have held opponents to a mere 38.7% shooting. A&M has also shot a blistering hit 25-48 (52.1%) from beyond the 3-points line in 3 conference tournament games. Tennessee won both regular season games versus Texas A&M by comfortable margins of 10 and 14 points. The Volunteers were double-digit favorite on both occasions. Now they’re just a 7.0-point favorite versus the Aggies with 1 more day of rest and with a chance to win a SEC title. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the favorite in this spot. Thank you but no thank you. Give me Texas A&M plus the points. |
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03-12-22 | Virginia Tech +6 v. Duke | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech vs. Duke 8:30 PM ET Game# 633-634 Play On: Virginia Tech +6.0 (5*) I haven’t been overly impressed with Duke’s performances in the ACC Tourney thus far. They’ve failed to cover on both occasions and each contest was in jeopardy heading into the final 2 minutes. That’s not to say they aren’t a great team because that would be a ludicrous statement. The Blue Devils have been less than stellar in their 2 games since arriving in Brooklyn while allowing 79 points to an undermanned Syracuse team and 76 to Miami last night. Duke has gone over the total in their last 5 games. Since the start of last season, Duke is 2-10 ATS after going over the total in each of their previous 3 contests and outscored those opponents by just 2.3 points per game. Virginia Tech has played with a high degree of desperation and urgency the last 3 days with the NCAA Tournament hopes hanging in the balance. They were dominant in last night’s semifinal 13-point win over a red-hot North Carolina team. The Hokies held the Tar Heels to just 59 points and 36.7% shooting. During their 3 ACC Tournament contests Virginia Tech has averaged 78.3 points per game and shot 49.3%. Give me Virginia Tech plus the points. |
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03-12-22 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs. Kansas 6:00 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: Texas Tech +2.5 (10*) I may be in the minority when I say that Texas Tech is the overall better team in this matchup. I also like their chances of a deep NCAA Tournament run far better than that of the higher ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These teams split the 2 games during regular season action with the home side posting blowout victories on each occasion. During their 2 Big 12 Tournament games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma the Texas Tech Red Riders have been dominant defensively. They held those opponents to only 48.0 points scored per contest and a mere 34.7% shooting. During their 2 regular season meetings versus Kansas, Texas Tech averaged 83.0 points scored per contest and shot an impressive 48.3%. Give me Texas Tech plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-11-22 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. North Carolina | 72-59 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina 9:30 PM ET Game# 865-866 Play On: Virginia Tech +2.5 (5*) North Carolina won both regular season meetings versus Virginia Tech by 8 and 10-point margins. Despite the #25 Tar Heels have 1 more additional day of rest than the Hokies and being the higher seed, they opened as just a 2.0-point favorite. The sports books are begging you to take the favorite in this matchup but I’m not obliging. Virginia Tech will be the more desperate and urgent team in this matchup as they need a win to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Give me Virginia Tech plus the points. |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke -8.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Miami vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET Game# 863-864 Play On: Duke -8.5 (10*) This is a Duke team which has shoot 48% or better in each of their last 6 games. Conversely, Miami has allowed its opponents to shoot 48% or better during 5 of its previous 6 contests. Duke will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 76-74 home loss to Miami earlier this season in a game they closed as a 15.0-point favorite. The Blue Devils had a scare yesterday before pulling away late in a 9-point win over an undermanned Syracuse team that they blew out twice during regular season action. That’s not likely to occur again. Miami narrowly escaped with a 2-point overtime win over a hapless Boston College team in yesterday’s conference quarterfinals. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-11-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -3 | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin 6:30 PM ET Game# 819-820 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) Michigan State has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 and 2-7 SU&ATS during its previous 9 games versus all teams not named Maryland. Speaking of Maryland, Michigan State defeated them yesterday 74-70. However, since the start of last season, the Spartans are an abysmal 1-10 ATS following a win by 6 points or fewer and were outscored by an average of 10.2 points per game. Wisconsin is an unscathed 3-0 SU&ATS in neutral site games this season with victories over #17 St. Mary’s, #18 Houston, and Texas A&M. Those 3 teams currently have a combined 73-23 (.760) record this season. Furthermore, Wisconsin has gone 8-0 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was anywhere from +3.0 to -3.0. Give me Wisconsin minus the points. |
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03-11-22 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -9 | 67-62 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Texas A&M vs. Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 831-832 Play On: Auburn -9.0 (5*) Texas A&M enters this SEC Tournament Quarterfinal on a 5-game win streak. However, they escaped with an overtime win over Florida yesterday in a contest they blew a 10-point lead with exactly 1:00 to play in regulation and had a 16-point lead with 10:45 left. Furthermore, all their wins on this current win streak came over unranked teams. Keep in mind, prior to their present 5-game win streak, Texas A&M went a dismal 1-9 in their previous 10 contests. The #4 Auburn Tigers enters the SEC Tournament with an outstanding 27-4 record and were the regular season conference champion. They lost 2 games in overtime against #20 Connecticut and #15 Arkansas. They also lost by 5 at #9 Tennessee and were upsets 63-62 at Florida. My point being, with a break or two the Tigers could have easily gone undefeated in regular season action. Auburn played Texas A&M just once during regular season action and won 75-58 at home while covering as a 12.0-point favorite. Additionally, they held the Aggies to a miserable 27.1% shooting day and were +7 on the boards. Give me Auburn minus the points. |
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03-10-22 | Rice v. North Texas -10.5 | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rice vs. North Texas 6:30 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: North Texas -10.5 (5*) For starters, Rice has gone a dismal 1-4 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog. The Owls were hammered in their 2 regular season games versus North Texas by scores of 67-44 and 75-43 while shooting a cumulative 31.8% from the floor. They were also -37 in the rebounding department in those 2 defeats. North Texas is coming off a 70-68 upset loss at UTEP in their regular season finale. That setback halted a 14-game North Texas winning streak. North Texas is 19-2 SU and 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games. The Mean Green finished 16-2 in CUSA play and allowed just 55.9 points per game while doing so. Give me North Texas minus the points. |
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03-10-22 | Oregon v. Colorado +1 | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Oregon vs. Colorado 5:30 PM ET Game# 777-778 Play On: Colorado +1.0 (5*) You can make a strong case for Oregon being among the top underachieving teams in college basketball this season. The Ducks limp into the PAC-12 Tournament having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Conversely, Colorado finished regular season action on a 7-1 SU run and that included a lopsided 16-point win over #2 Arizona. The Buffaloes have averaged 78.1 points scored per game throughout their previous 8 contests and shot 48% or better on 6 of those occasions. Give me Colorado in this one. |
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03-10-22 | Florida v. Texas A&M +2.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Florida vs. Texas A&M 12:00 PM ET Game# 745-746 Play On: Texas A&M +2.5 (5*) After going through an 8-game losing streak, Texas A&M finished the season on a 5-1 run which included 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4. Florida went just 3-4 SU during its last 7 regular season contests. What really sticks out to me is the Gators previous 5 games in which they allowed opponents to shoot a combined 48.0% and make 40.8% of their 3-points shot attempts. Conversely, Texas A&M shot 50% from the field over their last 5 outings. Give me Texas A&M plus the points. |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan -2 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Indiana vs. Michigan 11:30 AM ET Game# 713-714 Play On: Michigan -2.0 (5*) Michigan has dominated their head-to-head series versus Indiana which is evidenced by 9 straight wins over the Hoosiers. The last 8 of those wins came by 11 points or more including an 80-62 victory at Indiana this season. The Wolverines figure to get an extra boost with head coach Juwan Howard returning from a 5-game suspension. During the 5 games without Howard, Michigan averaged 77.8 points scored per contest while shooting 49.0%, making 38.2% of its 3-point attempts, and 82.9% of its free throws. Conversely, Indiana finished their regular season by going a dismal 2-7 SU over its last 9 games. Give me Michigan minus the small number. |
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03-09-22 | Fairfield v. St. Peter's -5 | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Fairfield vs. St. Peter’s 9:30 PM ET Game# 695-696 Play On: St. Peter’s -5.0 (5*) St. Peter’s dominated Fairfield in both regular season matchups while winning by scores of 57-41 and 70-59. They held Fairfield to a combined 34-112 (30.3%) shooting in those contests. Speaking of good defense by St. Peter’s, they held their last 3 opponents to a mere 42.7 points per game and 26.9% shooting from the field. Additionally, St. Peter’s finished regular season action on a 4-0 SU&ATS run and won by a substantial 17.5 points per game. Conversely, Fairfield is coming off yesterday’s 72-50 win over Canisius. Since the 2019-2020 season, the Stags are 3-14 ATS after allowing 55 points or fewer in their previous outing and was outscored by 8.6 points per game. Give me St. Peter’s minus the points. |
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03-09-22 | Ole Miss v. Missouri +4 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Ole Miss vs. Missouri 6:00 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Missouri +4.0 (5*) Let me preface my analysis by saying that both teams aren’t very good. Nevertheless, I feel strongly that the lesser of 2 evils is clearly the underdog in this matchup. Ole Miss is 1-8 SU in their last 9 which includes a current 4-game losing streak. Their only win during that stretch came over a terrible 6-25 Georgia team. Furthermore, Ole Miss has gone an abysmal 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as a pick or favorite. Conversely, Missouri is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a pick or underdog of 5.5 or less. Missouri won and covered both regular season meetings versus Ole Miss. During those wins, Missouri averaged 76.0 points scored per game, shot 58.2%, made 52.4% of its 3-point shot attempts, and was a +9.5 rebounds per contest. Give me Missouri plus the points. |
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03-08-22 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -12.5 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: Gonzaga -12.5 (10*) It’s apparent by current betting patterns that the public is wagering on St. Mary’s plus the sizable number like it’s an absolute cinch. After all, these teams just met on 2/28 in the regular season finale for both teams and St. Mary’s walked away with a convincing 10-point win as a 10.5-point home underdog. Additionally, the Gaels held Gonzaga to a season low 57 points and 36.7% shooting. I’m here to tell you that’s not happening again. Gonzaga was caught in a flat spot, and the Bulldogs will bounce back with vengeance tonight. The oddsmakers were certainly not deterred by that previous result based on the opening number of 13.5. Gonzaga will show their upper echelon class tonight in a revenge situation. Give me Gonzaga minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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03-08-22 | Canisius +3.5 v. Fairfield | 50-72 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Canisius vs. Fairfield 7:00 PM ET Game# 609-610 Play On: Canisius +3.5 (5*) Fairfield won both regular season matchups versus Canisius. However, those wins came by just 4 and 6 points so it’s not as if they dominated them. Fairfield has been anemic offensively over their last 5 contests while averaging just 57.8 points score per game and shooting a terrible 37.6% from the field. The Stags are coming off a 57-41 loss at Saint Peter’s in their regular season finale. Since the start of last season, Fairfield is a dismal 1-8 ATS following a contest in which they scored 55 or less and were outscored by an average of 11.2 points per game. On the other hand, Canisius comes into to the MAAC Tournament riding the momentum of having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. Give me Canisius plus the points. |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
New Orleans vs. Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Memphis -6.5 (5*) New Orleans is coming off a 138-130 loss to Denver which ended a 4-game win streak. Conversely, Memphis is coming off an embarrassing 123-122 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a sizable 10.0-point favorite. However, the Grizzlies are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 2.0 or more following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 15.4 points per game. Memphis is also a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS this season following a road loss by 10 or more and won by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me Memphis minus the points. |
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03-06-22 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: Iowa +4.0 (5*) I love the way Iowa is playing right now. The Hawkeyes have won their last 5 and includes 3-0 ATS in road games. All 5 wins have come by double-digit margins with the average margin of victory being by 16.2 points per game. Illinois is 4-2 SU in their last 6 at home but was just 1-5 ATS in those contests. Iowa lost to Illinois 87-83 at home in early December but is a much better team cuurently than they were 3 months ago. The great equalizer for college basketball underdogs is their ability to make 3-point shots. During their current 5-game win streak, Iowa has converted on an excellent 40.3% of their 3-point attempts while averaging 10 makes per contest. This is nothing new for a Hawkeyes team which averages 9 three-point makes per game this season. Since Game 16 of their season, Illinois is 0-6 ATS versus opponents that average 8 or more 3-point makes per game. Give me Iowa plus the points. |
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03-06-22 | Michigan +4.5 v. Ohio State | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Michigan @ Ohio State 12:30 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Michigan +4.5 (5*) Michigan is coming off an 82-71 home loss to #24 Iowa. The Wolverines have gone a perfect 6-0 SU in their last 6 following a loss in their previous game. During its last 3 contests, Michigan has averaged 81.0 points scored per game and shot a sizzling hot 52.9% from the field. Ohio State has allowed 75.5 points per game while permitting their opponents to shoot 47.1% over their last 4. The #23 Buckeyes are a mediocre 6-5 SU in their last 11 games which included a home loss to last place Nebraska on 3/1. Give me Michigan plus the points. |
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03-05-22 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 8:30 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Texas A&M -2.0 (10*) Mississippi State has gone a dismal 1-8 SU in SEC road games this season with their only win coming versus a Missouri team which has a poor 4-13 conference record and is 10-20 overall. The Bulldogs are coming off a disheartening home overtime loss to #5 Auburn that for all intent and purposes eliminated them from a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs recovering emotionally from that loss just 3 days later. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 0-4 SU&ATS this season within the point-spread parameter of pick to +4.0. Texas A&M starter the season 15-2 then proceeded to lose 8 straight games. Since that time, the Aggies have rebounded to win 4 of their last 5 and includes a present 3-0 SU&ATS run. As a matter of fact, Texas A&M is coming off a 10-point road win over #25 Alabama in a game they closed as a 16.0-point underdog. During their current 3-game winning run, the Aggies scored 84.7 points per contest and shot a blistering hot 55.8% from the field. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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03-05-22 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -2 | 78-71 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Kansas State 4:00 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Kansas State -2.0 (5*) Oklahoma is an abysmal 1-8 SU in conference away games this season. During their previous 3 road games, Oklahoma allowed their opponents to shoot a combined 59.2% which is just atrocious defense. During those last 3 away games, the Sooners averaged a paltry 55.0 points scored per contest. Kansas State does come in on a 4-game losing streak. However, 3 of those 4 losses came by a combined 9 points. The Wildcats will be out to revenge a narrow 2-point loss at Oklahoma earlier this season. Give me Kansas State minus the small number. |
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03-05-22 | Kentucky v. Florida +5 | 71-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Florida 2:00 PM ET Game# 629-630 Play On: Florida +5.0 (5*) #7 Kentucky has gone a perfect 18-0 at home this season. However, they’re a mediocre 6-5 in true road game which includes dropping its last 2 at Tennessee and Arkansas. Florida is attempting to make a late push for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 including a home upset win over #5 Auburn. The Gators will also be out to avenge an embarrassing 21-point loss at Kentucky earlier this season. Expect a superb effort from Florida in front of a boisterous home crowd against an extremely talented opponent. Florida has won 6 of their last 7 at home and it’s lone defeat in that stretch came versus #14 Arkansas who’s won 14 of its last 15 contests. Give me Florida plus the points. |
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03-05-22 | Arkansas v. Tennessee -6.5 | 74-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Tennessee 12;00 PM ET Game# 603-604 Play On: Tennessee -6.5 (5*) Arkansas has gone 14-1 in their last 15 games and their lone loss in that stretch was a 1-point defeat at #25 Alabama. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus an opponent that’s only ranked 1 spot higher than them in the national polls. Furthermore, Arkansas defeated Tennessee 58-48 at home earlier this season. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m not getting lured in. Tennessee Is an unbeaten 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, the Volunteers are 8-1 in their last 9 with their only loss coming versus Arkansas. The combination of senior day, revenge, and a raucous crowd will inspire Tennessee to a statement win and cover. Give me Tennessee minus the points. |