Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-17-24 | Kentucky v. Auburn -8 | 70-59 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Auburn 6:00 PM ET Game# 731-732 Play On: Auburn -8.0 Auburn is 13-0 at home this season and each of those wins came by 11 points or more. They covered 9 of those 13 contests and won by an average of 22.1 points per game. Both of these teams are explosive offensively, but Auburn is better on the defensive end which will pay dividends down the stretch in this contest. Give me Auburn minus points. |
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02-17-24 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -7.5 | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 601-602 Play On: Iowa State -7.5 The last time Texas Tech took the floor was at home on Monday night when they shellacked #6 Texas 79-50 in an ESPN nationally televised game. Now 5 days later they find themselves as a sizable 7.5-point road underdog at Iowa State and most bettors will opt to take Texas Tech after witnessing their superb performance just 5 days ago. However, Iowa State is ranked #10 nationally and 14-0 at home this season including an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS with an average victory margin of 28.5 points per game. The Cyclones have also won 6 of their last 7 games overall with their lone defeat coming by just 2-points at #12 Baylor. On the other hand, Texas Tech has lost 3 of their last 4 true road games including a 23-point loss at #3 Houston. Give me Iowa State minus points. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -6 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
New Mexico @ San Diego State 10:00 PM ET Game# 895-896 Play On: San Diego State -6.0 This line jumped right off the board to me. This is an extremely heavy line in my professional opinion where the oddsmakers and sportsbooks are making the underdog New Mexico Lobos (20-5) a very enticing option to wager on. Especially considering when these teams played at New Mexico on 1/13 the Lobos walked away with an 88-70 blowing win while easily covering as a 3.5-point favorite. It must be noted, San Diego State possesses an extremely strong home court where they’ve gone 12-0 this season and with an average victoy margin of 17.0 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve covered in 6 of their last 7 at home with all coming as a favorite and won by 15.7 points per contest. The tables will turn in this 2nd matchup between 2 Mountain West Conference teams that barring something unforeseen will be in the NCAA Tournament. I’m going against public perception in this one and give me San Diego State plus points. |
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02-15-24 | California v. Washington State -8.5 | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
California @ Washington State 10:00 PM ET Game# 823-824 Play On Washington State -8.5 Washington State is a red-hot 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS during their previous 9 games. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game. The Cougars will be playing with revenge stemming from an earlier season loss at California. During the past 3 seasons, Washington State is 6-0 SU&ATS at home when playing with same season revenge with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game. Give me Washington State minus points. |
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02-15-24 | Memphis +1.5 v. North Texas | 66-76 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis @ North Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 761-762 Play On: Memphis +1.5 North Texas is a solid team which plays very good defense. However, their offensive game leaves much to be desired. The Mean Green have lost 4 of their last 5 which included home defeats versus UAB and South Florida. This is a very talented Memphis team whichg by all accounts has underachieved up until this point. Nevertheless, after hitting rock bottom during a 0-4 SU&ATS stretch, they rebounded to go win their last 3. Memphis is a more than respectable 6-3 in true road games which includes quality wins at Missouri, VCU, and Texas A&M. The Tigers have allowed 30 points or fewer in the 1st half in each of their previous 3 games. Memphis has gone a perfect 12-0 SU over the past 3 season after allowing 30 points or less during the first half of each of their previous 2 contests and won by an average of 12.1 points per occurrence. I’ll take Memphis in this one. |
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02-14-24 | Western Carolina v. Samford -7.5 | 62-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Western Carolina @ Samford 9:00 ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Samford -7.5 Samford is 14-0 SU at home this season with a decisive average victory margin of 20.8 points per game. Since losing their first 2 games of the season, Samford has gone a sizzling hot 22-1. The Bulldogs have shot 46% or better in each of their previous 5 games. Samford is a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS this season after shooting 47% or better during each of their previous 3 contests and won by a substantial margin of 18.4 points per game. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a single-digit home favorite and won by 13.3 points per game. Samford has scored 75 points or more in each of their previous 5 games and Western Carolina is coming off a 79-46 blowout win over Mercer. College Basketball favorites like Samford that have scored 75 points or more during each of their previous 5 games, and is facing an opponent like Western Carolina who’s coming off a win by 30 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 33-10 ATS (76.7%) throughout the previous 5 season. The average line in those 43 contests was 8.0 which is almost identical to the number in this matchup. Give me Samford minus points. |
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02-14-24 | Massachusetts +4.5 v. Richmond | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Massachusetts @ Richmond 7:00 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: Massachusetts +4.5 This line makes little sense to me. We have a Richmond team that’s 12-0 SU & 11-1 ATS at home this season. Then we have a UMass team that’s only 1-5 SU in true road games this season. Furthermore, Richmond is 9-1 in conference play while UMass is a mediocre 6-5. Yet, Richmond is only a 4.5-point home favorite. This looks to good to be true when it comes to taking Richmond as a small home favorite. When that occurs, I tend to go the opposite direction and that’s precisely wh I’m going to do here. Give me Massachusetts plus points. |
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02-13-24 | LSU v. Florida -9.5 | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
LSU @ Florida 8:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Florida -9.5 These appears to me as a heavy line in which the sportsbooks are begging you to take the double-digit underdog. I’m not accepting that seemingly alluring invitation. Florida has won their last 4 conference home games by 12.7 points per contest. Florida has averaged 88.9 points scored per game at home while shooting 49% and went to the free throw line an alarmingly high 26 times per contest. LSU is 0-4 SU in their last 4 conference away contests and lost by 14.5 points per game. During their last 5 overall, LSU allowed 89.6 points per game while opponents shot 46% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point territory, and opponents averaged 24 free throw attempts per contest. Give me Florida minus points. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder v. Magic +3 | 127-113 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Magic 7:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Orlando +3.0 Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points per game. Orlando will be playing on 2 days rest and each of their previous 2 were at home. Since the start of last season, Orlando is 7-1 SU at home after playing each of their previous 2 at home, and they outscored their opponents in those 8 contests by 10.4 points per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and all came as a favorite while they were outscored by 19.7 points per contest. Give me the Magic plus points. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers vs. Chiefs 6:30 PM ET Pick: Chiefs +2.0 Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Kansas City is 10-1 SU&ATS in away games or at a neutral site when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. During that exact time span, Kansas City was also a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in away or neutral site games. Andy Reid teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City have been phenomenal when coming off a bye week. Give me Kansas City plus points. |
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02-10-24 | Baylor v. Kansas -6.5 | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Kansas 6:00 ET Game# 769-770 Play On: Kansas -6.5 Kansas will be in a sour mood after losing on the road to in-state rival Kansas State 75-70 in their previous game. We must keep in mind, that contest took place just 2 days after Kansas turned in a flawless performance in a convincing win over #5 Houston. The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season immediately following a loss and with an average victory margin of 13.7 points per game. The Jayhawks are also a perfect 12-0 at home this season with a sizable point per game differential of +16.4. Kansas has won their last 3 at home versus Baylor and by an average decisive margin of 17.7 points per game despite being just a small favorite on 2 of those occasions and an underdog on another. As good as Baylor is, their defensive play over their previous 5 games has been extremely shaky. During that span they’ve allowed opponents to shoot a combined 49.5% from and filed and an alarmingly high 44.1% from 3-point range. That shapes up as problematic against a Kansa team that at home this season has shot 53.3% from the field and made an excellent 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. This is another example of a heavy line that reeks of sportsbooks pleading with you to take the nationally ranked hefty underdog. I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas minus points. |
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02-10-24 | Houston v. Cincinnati +5.5 | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Houston @ Cincinnati 4:00 PM ET Game# 697-698 Play On: Cincinnati +5.5 Every avid college basketball fan knows how good Houston is defensively. However, Cincinnati is #17 nationall in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are also the top 3-point shooting team during Big 12 Conference play. Cincinnati has suffered 5 conference losses this season, but all of them came by 5 points or fewer. The Bearcats also come in with momentum and confidence after knocking off #23 Texas Tech on the road in their previous game. Give me Cincinnati plus points. |
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02-10-24 | TCU v. Iowa State -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
TCU @ Iowa State 2:00 PM ET Game# 669-670 Play On: Iowa State -7.5 TCU is a very good team so this appears to be a heavy line which screams of the sportsbooks begging you to take the underdog. I am going to turn down their kind gesture and opt for the much smarter money going on the home favorite. Iowa State is 13-0 SU at home this season with a massive point per game differential of +29.7. Included in those home victories were wins over #4 Kansas and #5 Houston. Iowa State won 73-72 at TCU earlier this season in a game they forced 27 Horned Frogs turnovers. That’s nothing new for an Iowa State team that ranks #2 nationally in forcing turnover. The Cyclones have forced opponents into turnovers in 26.1 of their offensive possessions this season. Iowa State is also #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give me Iowa State minus points. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton v. VCU +1.5 | 47-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Dayton @ VCU 7:00 PM ET Game# 885-886 Play On: VCU +1.5 This isn’t as much about disliking Dayton in this matchup, but more about liking VCU in this specific spot. After all, Dayton (21-3) is ranked #19 nationally and have won 16 of their last 17 games. Their only loss in that stretch came at Richmond just recently. That’s the same Richmond team that suffered their only conference loss last week at VCU. VCU is 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. Their lone defeat in that successful run came at St. Bonaventure in a game they blew a 20-point 2nd half lead. Additionally, they allowed just 60.0 points per game in those 8 contests and held opponents to a combined 36.8% shooting from the field. On the offensive side, VCU has made an impressive 40.4% of their 3-point shot attempts and went 84.6% from the free throw line over their previous 5 games. Give me VCU in this one. |
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02-08-24 | Arizona v. Utah +6 | 105-99 | Push | 0 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Utah 8:00 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: Utah +6.0 Arizona is a legitimate national title contender. However, they’re a bit vulnerable in conference away games. The #8 Wildcats have suffered road losses to unranked teams such as Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State. As a matter of fact, all 5 losses by Arizona this season have come either on a neutral floor or true road game. Conversely, Utah is 0-5 SU&ATS in conference away games. However, they’re a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS at home with an average victory margin 18.0 points per game. They’ll also be out to revenge a 92-73 loss at Arizona earlier this season. Give me Utah plus points. |
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02-07-24 | Southern Illinois v. Drake -10 | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Southern Illinois @ Drake 8:00 PM ET Game# 713-714 Play On: Drake -10.0 Drake (18-5/9-3) is coming off a 75-67 loss at Missouri Valley Conference leader Indiana State (20-3/11-1) last Saturday in a game that was even closer than the single-digit margin would indicate. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss with an average victory margin of 15.4 points per game. Drake is also an unscathed 12-0 SU at home while outscoring their opponents by 17.9 points per game. Drake is #1 in MVC play when it comes to turnovers being committed which has seen them turn the ball over on only 12% of their offensive possessions. Conversely, Southern Illinois is last in that same category while committing turnover on 19.6% of their offensive possessions. Southern Illinois has been an average shooting team at best during conference action. That doesn’t bold well for them in this matchup since they don’t figure to get many 2nd chance opportunities against a Drake team that leads the Missouri Valley in defensive rebounding and is #2 nationally in that category. Give me Drake minus points. |
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02-06-24 | San Diego State v. Air Force +10 | 77-64 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 10:30 PM ET Game# 609-610 Play On: Air Force +10.0 Before you question my sanity in making this choice take a second to hear me out. San Diego State is coming off a convincing home win over nationally ranked Utah State. Now they go on the road to face an Air Force team that’s gone 1-11 SU in their last 12 and is 0-4 SU&ATS during conference home games while being outscored by 15.3 points per contest. Nevertheless, San Diego State faces a scheduling gauntlet in the next 4 conference games having to face Nevada (17-5), Colorado State (17-5), #25 New Mexico (18-4) and #22 Utah State (19-3). This situation screams as a flat spot for #24 San Diego State. On a positive note for Air Force, they average 10 three-point makes per game while converting on an impressive 39.3% of those attempts during conference play. The Falcon have also shot 47% or better in 5 of their last 7 contests. Give me Air Force plus points. |
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02-06-24 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Suns -3.5 Despite the head coaching change for the Bucks, something still feels off with them. Milwaukee is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 as an underdog and lost by an enormous 20.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since the start of last season, the Bucks are an abysmal 4-15 ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game. The Suns are coming off a successful 4-3 road trip and they’re now 11-3 over their previous 14 contests. The Suns have shot 49% or better in 14 consecutive games in addition to 18 of their previous 20 contests. During their previous 4 the Bucks are allowing 118.0 points per game and permitted their opponents to shoot a combined 49.9%. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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02-06-24 | Thunder -3 v. Jazz | 117-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Jazz 9:10 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Thunder -3.0 Oklahoma City has gone a profitable 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road. The Thunder are 2-0 SU&ATS versus Utah this season while averaging 134.0 points scored per contest and shot 53.5% from the field. Utah is 3-6 in their last 9 and allowed 124.4 points scored per game while opponents shot 49.3% and make 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Thunder has shot 49.6% throughout their previous 5 while making 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me the Thunder minus points. |
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02-06-24 | Magic +3.5 v. Heat | 95-121 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Magic @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 577-578 Play On: Magic +3.5 Orlando has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS during their previous 5 outings. Conversely, Miami is 2-8 SU&ATS over their previous 10 and that includes 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 at home. Give me the Magic plus points. |
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02-06-24 | Indiana +6 v. Ohio State | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 609-610 Play On: Indiana +6.0 This is a struggle of 2 struggling Big 10 teams that are in the midst of extremely disappointing seasons. Nonetheless, Ohio State as a sizable favorite after losing their last 4 and 7 of their previous 8 isn’t conducive to laying points with any type of confidence. The Buckeyes are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 9.0 or less. Ohio State is coming off a 2-point loss at Iowa. Indiana is coming off a dismal performance during a 85-71 home loss to Penn State in a game they closed as a 7.0-point favorite. College Basketball underdogs of between 3.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU favorite loss, and their facing an underdog coming off a conference loss by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those underdogs going an extremely profitable 35-10 ATS (77.8%) throughout the previous 5 seasons, and the average line was 5.8. Give me Indiana plus points. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Warriors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Nets +1.5 This is an attractive spot for the home team in this matchup as I see and diagnose it. This will be the Warriors 3rd road game in 4-days and they wasted a 62-point epic performance at Atlanta on Saturday while falling to the Hawks 141-131. Golden State is now 6-11 SU in their last 17 overall and 3-9 SU during their previous 12 road games. Since the start of last season, the Warriors are a dismal 5-18 SU on the road immediately following a road loss. Contrary to their opponent tonight, Brooklyn is a well-rested team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. Additionally, Brooklyn isn’t road weary considering 5 of their last 6 have been played at home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 4. During their previous 3 outings Brooklyn has scored 134.3 points per game and shot a red-hot 51.0%. Brooklyn has also made a stellar 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 games. All that is good news for Nets backers when considering Golden State has allowed 125.6 points per game over their last 5 while opponents knocked down 37.1% of their 3-point shots against them. Give me the Nets on the money line. |
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons +7.5 | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Magic @ Pistons 3:10 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Pistons +7.0 Orlando will be playing in their 4th of a 5-game 9-day road trip. They’re coming off a 108-106 win at Minnesota who’s arguably the best team in the Western Conference. Up next is the finale of their road trip at division rival Miami on Tuesday. Sandwiched in between is the lowly Detroit Pistons who have an atrocious 6-42 season record. However, Detroit has gone 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog and won 2 of those games outright. The Pistons are coming off a 1369-125 home loss to the red-hot Los Angeles Clippers but still managed to cover as a 12.0-point underdog. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Give me the Pistons plus points. |
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02-04-24 | Purdue v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Wisconsin 1:00 PM ET Game# 829-830 Play On: Wisconsin +2.5 Purdue is 9-2 in conference play and both losses occurred on the road versus Northwestern and Nebraska. Wisconsin squandered a 20-point 2nd half lead at Nebraska in their previous outing and may have been caught peeking ahead to their huge home game versus #2 Purdue. Despite that loss, the Badgers are 15-3 in their last 18 games and have won straight at home. The Badgers are also a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin coming by 12.4 points per contest. Give me Wisconsin plus points. |
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02-03-24 | Drake v. Indiana State -5.5 | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Drake @ Indiana State 6:00 PM ET Game# 729-730 Play On: Indiana State -5.5 This is a matchup of the 2 best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Indiana State (19-3) will be playing with revenge stemming from an 89-78 loss at Drake (18-4) earlier this season. Since that defeat the Sycamores have reeled off 6 wins in a row. Indiana State is also 9-0 SU at home this season with an average victory margin of 26.5 points per game. Drake is just 2-3 SU&ATS in their last 5 true road games with all those as a favorite. This will be only the 2nd time this season that the Bulldogs are an underdog which tells me precisely how the oddsmakers feel about this matchup. Besides that loss at Drake, the only other defeats that Indiana State has suffered came at Michigan State and Alabama. Another thing to keep in mind. If Indiana State has a small lead down the stretch which prompts Drake to intentionally foul to extend the game, Indiana State is the 4th best free throw shooting team in the country at 79.1%. Give me Indiana State minus points. |
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02-03-24 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +3.5 | 91-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Ole Miss 6:00 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: Ole Miss +3.5 Ole Miss will be out to revenge an earlier season 82-59 blowout loss at Auburn. The Rebels are a perfect 12-0 SU and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS versus conference opponents with an average victory margin of 15.3 points per contest. Auburn is a Top 10 caliber team when they’re at their best. However, they dropped their last 2 conference road games at Alabama and Mississippi State. Give me Ole Miss plus points. |
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02-03-24 | Richmond +4 v. VCU | 52-63 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Richmond @ VCU 4:00 PM ET Game# 687-688 Play On: Richmond +4.0 VCU had their 5-game win streak snapped on Tuesday after they blew a 19-point lead at St. Bonaventure and lost by 5. VCU has also lost 5 home games this season including defeats against McNeese State and Norfolk State. Richmond continues to receive little respect despite their 16-5 record and current 11-game win streak in which they covered 10 of those contests. They’re also a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS in conference away games and they were an underdog on each of those occasions. Give me Richmond plus points. |
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02-03-24 | Virginia +5 v. Clemson | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Clemson 2:00 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Virginia +5.0 Clemson has leveled off considerably after an impressive start to the season. The Tigers are coming off an uninspiring 70-64 home win over a terrible Louisville team and didn’t come close to covering as a 16.0-point favorite. Clemson is 0-3 SU in their last 3 games immediately following a win. They also suffered a recent home loss to Georgia Tech as an 11.5-point favorite. Virginia enters today on a 5-game win streak in which they outscored opponents by an average of 10.4 points per game. Granted those wins didn’t all come over top shelf competition, but you can never undervalue an underdog with momentum. During their current win streak, Virginia has made an excellent 41.7% of their 3-point shot attempts. Making those long-distance shots is the great equalizer for an underdog and especially so on the road. Give me Virginia plus points. |
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02-01-24 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +1.5 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Nebraska 8:30 PM ET Game# 789-790 Play On: Nebraska +1.5 (-115) Nebraska has been tough at home this season with their lone loss coming versus in-state rival and #13 Creighton (16-5). However, they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games which includes a 16-point win over #2 Purdue (19-2). The won those 5 conference home contests by 11.8 points per game while averaging 81.8 points scored per outing and shooting 51.9%. The Cornhuskers will also be seeking revenge for an 88-72 loss suffered at Wisconsin earlier this season. #6 Wisconsin is 16-4 but 3 of their losses took place in true road games. It’s also worth noting, Nebraska is shooting a blistering hot 41.8% from 3-point range during conference play. Conversely, Wisconsin ranks 10th in Big 10 Conference action when it comes to defending the 3-points shot as opponents have made 38% of their attempts against them. Give me Nebraska. |
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01-31-24 | Suns v. Nets +3.5 | 136-120 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nets 8:40 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Nets +3.6 The Suns are unequivocally the better team in this matchup. However, I like the home underdog betting value in this specific spot. Phoenix will be playing their 5th of a 7-game 12-day road tripp that has saw them go 2-2 thus far. The Nets will be playing in their 3rd consecutive game at home, and they won the previous 2. The latest of which was a 147-114 thrashing of Uta on Monday night. Brooklyn has also gone a profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) at home this season. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida @ Kentucky 8:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Kentucky -5.5 Florida is an uninspiring 1-3 SU&ATS in true road games this season and allowed 84.3 points per contest while doing so. The Gators rank next to last in adjusted defensive efficiency during SEC play. That’s not good news when considering that Kentucky is #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #4 in 3-point shooting while converting on an impressive 40.2% of their long-distance attempts. Kentucky doesn’t beat themselves which is proven by them turning the ball over on just 13.1% of their offensive possessions. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season which includes winning their last 4 by 15.3 points per contest and they averaged 95.3 points scored per game. Give me Kentucky minus points. |
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01-31-24 | Kings +1.5 v. Heat | 106-115 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Kings @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Kings +1.5 Miami has hit a brick wall recently while going 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 games and they were outscored in those outings by a substantial 16.3 points per outing. That includes 4 of those games taking pace at home. The Kings enter today on a 4-game win streak with the last 3 coming on the road. Sacramento has averaged a robust 120.6 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests and shot 50% or better 8 times. On the other hand, Miami has allowed 128.7 points per game and opponents have shot 54% over their previous 3 contests. The Heat have also averaged just a mere 101.1 points scored per game over their previous 10 contests. Give me the Kings plus points. |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -13.5 | 63-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Tennessee 6:30 PM ET Game# 601-602 Play On: Tennessee -13.5 South Carolina is 17-3 yet they’re a current 14.0-point road underdog. The Gamecocks are also 5-2 in SEC play but they’re unranked. It’s like the sportsbooks are begging you to take the seemingly generous number of points being afforded to them. Well, I’m not taking the bait. Tennessee is ranked 5th nationally with a 15-4 record which includes 10-0 SU at home. Furthermore, the Volunteers are 3-0 SU&ATS in SEC home games thus far and with an average victory margin of 21.7 points per contest. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: 49ers -7.0 The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points. Props · Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards. · 49ers over 30.5 points scored. · Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards. · Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards. |
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01-27-24 | Ohio State v. Northwestern -2.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Northwestern 3:30 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Northwestern -2.5 Ohio State is 0-4 this season in true away games and all those games came against fellow Big 10 Conference teams. After starting the season 11-2, Ohio State has also dropped 4 of the last 5 overall which includes losses to 3 unranked teams. Northwestern has gone 10-1 at home this season which includes quality wins over #2 Purdue (18-2) and #10 Illinois (14-5). Furthermore, Northwestern is #2 in Big 10 play in 3-point accuracy while making 41.4% of those long-distance shot. Conversely, Ohio State ranks 13th during Big 10 conference play in 3-point defense while allowing opponents to convert an alarmingly high 40.6% of their attempts. Give me Northwestern minus points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-27-24 | Clippers v. Celtics -7.5 | 115-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Celtics 7:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Celtics -7.5 The Clippers are coming off an impressive 127-107 road win over Toronto last night. The Clippers are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season when playing with no rest and they were an underdog on each occasion. Conversely, Boston is -0 SU this season when playing at home versus an opponent playing with no rest and with an average victory margin of 14.4 points per game. The Celtics are coming off a dominating performance during a 143-110 win at Miami on Thursday. Boston is 4-0 SU at home this season following a road win and outscored their opponents by a decisive 21.0 points per game. Furthermore, we need to think like an oddsmaker in this matchup. We have a Clippers team that’s been red-hot while going 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS over their previous 15 contests. That includes a current 4-0 SU&ATS run in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 7.5-point underdog. They’re giving us the winner. Give me Boston minus points. |
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01-27-24 | Arizona v. Oregon +4 | 87-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Oregon 5:30 PM ET Game# 751-752 Play On: Oregon +4.0 Arizona is one of the best teams in the country. However, they’ve been extremely vulnerable in true road games this season while going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 when cast into that role. All 3 of those losses came as favorites as -9.0 or greater and included an absolute stunner as an 18.5-point chalk at Oregon State just 2 days ago. The Wildcats started the season 8-0 but have gone just 6-5 since. Oregon is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and that includes 4-0 when facing conference opponents. The Ducks have won their last 5 at home versus Arizona and all came with current head coach Dana Altman at the helm. It’s also worth noting, Oregon has made an excellent 41.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in conference play. Arizona ranks 10th in conference playing in defending the 3-point shot as their opponents have converted on a concerning 38.1% of their long-distance attempts. The great equalizer for a college basketball underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots and that certainly is applicable in this instance. Give me Oregon plus points. |
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01-27-24 | Auburn -2.5 v. Mississippi State | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Mississippi State 3:30 PM ET Game# 685-686 Play On: Auburn -2.5 Mississippi State went 11-2 during their non-conference slate but is only 2-4 in conference play. The Bulldogs have also committed turnovers on 18.2% of their offensive possessions in those 6 games and only 2 SEC teams are worse. They’ll be facing an Auburn team that ranks #1 in SEC action while forcing turnovers on 21.6% of their opponents’ offensive possessions. This is a less than desirable matchup for Mississippi State. #7 Auburn (16-3) will be in an extremely sour mood heading into this matchup after suffering a 79-75 loss at bitter rival Alabama on Wednesday night. Despite giving up 79 points to Alabama they held the Crimson Tide to just 38.5% shooting. Auburn is a very underrated defensive team which gets overlooked due to their 83.9 points per game scoring average this season. Nevertheless, the Tigers are #5 nationally in defensive efficiency and #1 in that category during SEC play. Give me Auburn minus points. |
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01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4.5 | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Iowa State 1:30 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Iowa State -4.5 So we have the #23 Iowa State Cyclones as a 4.5-point favorite over the Kansas Wildcats. Granted the game is being played in Ames, Iowa. However, based on this line if the game were played at Kansas, the higher ranked Jayhawks would only be a 2.5 to 3.5-point favorite. They’re begging you to take the dog in this pot and I see that as a sucker bet. I’ll go with a contrarian approach, give me Iowa State minus points. |
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01-26-24 | Cavs +6 v. Bucks | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Bucks 8:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Cavaliers +6.0 The Cavaliers will be looking to atone for a 126-116 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday that snapped their red-hot 8-game win streak. I love their chances of being able to do so and especially betting on them as a point-spread underdog in this spot. Cleveland has shot 50% or better in each of their previous 4 games. During their previous 3 meetings with Milwaukee this season, Cleveland averaged 120.3 points scored per game and shot a combined 52.2% from the field. Furthermore, the Bucks have allowed an average of 126.5 points per game throughout their previous 6 contests. Milwaukee has also allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus the points. |
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01-25-24 | Bulls +4.5 v. Lakers | 132-141 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Lakers 10:40 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Bulls +4.5 Since winning the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Lakers have gone a dismal 8-14 SU which includes an uninspiring 6-6 at home. The Bulls aree coming off a gut-wrenching 115-113 loss at Phoenix in which they blew a 23-point 2nd half lead but still managed to cover as a 5.0-point underdog. Chicago is 3-0 SU in their last 3 and 7-1 during the previous 8 immediately following a loss. The Bulls are also 5-1 SU in their last 6 away games following a loss. Give me the Bulls plus the points. |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2.5 | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Knicks +2.5 The Knicks will be catching the Nuggets in the right time. Today will be Denver’s finale of a 5-game 10-day road trip. New York enters today riding a 4-game win streak and has also gone a red-hot 10-2 SU in their last 12. The Knicks defense has been superb over their previous 6 contests while allowing only 99.7 points per game. Additionally, the Knicks are 10-1 SU and 10-0-1 ATS at home this season when there’s a total of between 220.0 to 229.5 like it will be today. The Knicks are also 7-1 in their last 8 at home. This is an excellent betting value on the home underdog. Give me the Knicks plus points. |
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01-23-24 | Jazz +7 v. Pelicans | 124-153 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Jazz @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Jazz +7.0 New Orleans has gone just 4-5 SU and 36-6 ATS in their last 9 at home. Despite Utah losing their last 2, they’re still 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. That includes 7-1 ATS in their last 8 away games. Throughout their previous 5 contests Utah has averaged an impressive 132.8 points scored per game while shooting 49.9% and 38.9% from 3-point territory. During that same 5-game span they posted a +8 rebound per game differential and shot a blistering hot 84.4% from the free throw line with an alarmingly high average of 34 attempts per contest. Conversely, New Orleans has allowed 118.6 points per contest while permitting opponents to shoot 48.0% and make 39.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. Give me Utah plus the points. |
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01-23-24 | Blazers v. Thunder -13 | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Thunder -13.0 When it comes to NBA double-digit point-spreads I usually steer clear of handicapping those contests, and if I do it’s because I’m looking to take the underdog. However, this specific matchup is an exception. Portland is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a road double-digit underdog and they were outscored by an enormous average of 33.2 points per game. On the other hand, we have an Oklahoma City team which has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home with an average margin of victory coming by 21.0 points per game. Give me the Thunder minus points. Additionally, Oklahoma City will be playing on 2 days of rest. The Thunder are 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite when playing on 2 or more days rest and won by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Give me the Thunder minus points. |
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01-22-24 | Bulls +5 v. Suns | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Bulls +5.5 The Suns are coming off last night’s 117-110 home win iver Indiana which improved their current unbeaten streak to 5 games in a row. However, NBA teams which have won 5 or more in a row are playing with no rest are a poor 37-56 SU since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Furthermore, if those teams were playing at home they were just 13-21 SU and that includes 1-8 this season. Chicago enters tonight having gone 6-2 SU in their last 8 games. Chicago is also a respectable 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS in their previous 11 played on the road. Additionally, Chicago is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season when playing on 1 or more days rest and when facing an opponent with no rest with a +8.3 point per game differential. Give me the Bulls plus points. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*) Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost. Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +6 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 59 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Lions 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buccaneers +6.0 The Lions escaped with a 24-23 home win over the Rams in the Wildcard Round last Saturday night but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. You may be surprised to know, that marked their first win of the season at home versus an opponent that finished regular season action with a winning record. They were 0-2 SU&ATS in their previous 2 games in that role while losing to Seattle and Green Bay. Now they’re better than a touchdown favorite versus a Tampa Bay team which has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included an impressive 34-20 win at Green Bay. As a matter of fact, Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. The Buccaneer quarterback and former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. As a matter of fact, Mayfield has thrown for 283 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Mayfield will be facing a Detroit defense which has allowed 323 yards or more passing in each of their previous 4 games. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed just 18.6 points per game this season. Additionally, Tampa has allowed only 11.0 points and 272.5 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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01-20-24 | St. Mary's v. San Francisco +1.5 | 77-60 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
St. Mary’s @ San Francisco 10:00 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: San Francisco +1.5 No analysis due to time constraints. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: 49ers -9.5 The public is certainly in love with Green Bay after watching them blow out Dallas as a 7.5-point road underdog in last week’s Wildcard Round. The question then becomes, if they beat the NFC #2 seed easily as a 7.5-point dog, then why are they 9.5-point dogs on Saturday night. The oddsmakers aren’t deterred by what they saw last week, and neither am I. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-20-24 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech +2 | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Georgia Tech 6:00 PM ET Game# 759-760 Play On: Georgia Tech +2.0 No analysis due to time constraints. |
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01-20-24 | North Carolina v. Boston College +7 | 76-66 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Boston College 2:15 PM ET Game# 677-678 Play On: Boston College +7.0 (-115) No analysis due to time constraints. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +6.5 | 84-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Iowa 2:00 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Iowa +6.5 No analysis due to time constraints. |
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01-20-24 | St Bonaventure +2.5 v. George Mason | 60-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason 2:00 PM ET Game# 649-650 Play On: St. Bonaventure +2.5 No analysis due to time constraints. |
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01-20-24 | Marquette v. St. John's +1.5 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Marquette @ St. John’s 12:00 PM ET Game# 609-610 Play On: St. John’s +1.5 St. John’s is coming off road losses in their last 2 games played versus Creighton and Seton Hall. However, the Red Sorm are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home. Marquette is an excellent team but they’ve hit a bit of a wall of late. They’re 3-3 SU in their last 6. Additionally, the Golden Eagles are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 previous away games. Give me St. John’s in this one. |
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01-20-24 | Creighton v. Seton Hall +3 | 97-94 | Push | 0 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Creighton @ Seton Hall 12:00 PM ET Game# 611-612 Play On: Seton Hall +3.0 Seton Hall is playing extremely well right now. They’ve begun their Big East Slate by going 6-1 which includes a current 5-game win streak. The Pirates have posted quality wins over UConn by 15 and Marquette by 3. Seton Hall is a stellar 8-1 SU at home this season. Creighton has been plagued by inconsistent play recently which is evidenced by an uninspiring 5-4 SU record over their previous 9 games. Give me Seton Hall plus points. |
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01-20-24 | Miami-FL v. Syracuse -1.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Miami Fla. @ Syracuse 12:00 PM ET Game# 601-602 Play On: Syracuse -1.5 The Orange are in much need of quality wins if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. They do own Quad 1 wins over Oregon and Pittsburgh twice this season. This is another golden opportunity for them to shine their resume a little brighter against a formidable Miami team. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season and is coming off a confidence building 11-point road win at Pittsburgh in their previous game. Syracuse is also an extremely profitable 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 5.0 or less and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Miami has lost 3 of their last 4 and included a an upset shocking defeat to Louisville as a 16.0-point home favorite. They also lost in their previous outing to Florida State as a 5.5-point home favorite. Give me Syracuse to come out on top in this one. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 8:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Heat -6.5 Atlanta is coming off home wins in their last 2 games. Nonetheless, the Hawks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 after recording wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game. Atlanta has also gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an underdog of 3.0 or greater and they were outscored by 14.8 points per contest. Miami is coming off an embarrassing 121-97 loss at Toronto in their previous outing and they allowed the Raptors to shoot 51.1%. The Heat is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a game in which they allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better. Furthermore, Miami han’t allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in 2 straight for 21 consecutive games. Miami is 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS versus fellow Southeast Division teams this season. The Heat are also 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 following a loss. Give me the Heat minus points. |
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01-18-24 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon +7.5 | 82-70 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
NC-Wilmington @ Elon 7:00 PM ET Game# 747-748 Play On: Elon +7.5 Elon has gone 6-1 SU at home this season while UNC-Wilmington is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 true away games. The adage is that the great equalizer for college basketball underdogs is the ability to make 3-point shots. Elon is #66 nationally in offensive 3-point shot percentage at 36.1%. Additionally, Elon averages 10 three-point makes at home while converting on an excellent 40.1% of those long-distance attempts. As a matter of fact, Elon has averaged 88.1 points scored per game at home while shooting a superb 51.7% from the floor. Conversely, NC-Wilmington is #303 national when it comes to defensive 3-point shooting percentage defense at 36.1%. I love the home underdog betting value in this matchup. Give me Elon plus the points. |
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01-16-24 | Kings +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Kings @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Kings +4.5 The Suns are a disappointing 21-18 this season and that includes an extremely uninspiring 11-11 at home. Phoenix will be facing an opponent tonight in the Sacramento Kings averaging 118.2 points scored per game. That’s a significant statistic since Phoenix has gone an abysmal 0-10 ATS this season when facing teams that average 116.0 or more points scored per game and were outscored by 10.8 points per contest. Phoenix is only forcing 12 turnovers per game this season. That’s also noteworthy since Sacramento is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams that force an average of 13 turnovers or less per game and they outscored those opponents by 6.0 points per contest. Lastly, dating back to last season, Sacramento is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Phoenix while outscoring them by an average of 10.0 points per game. Give me the Kings plus the points. |
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01-16-24 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Penn State | 83-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Penn State 9:00 PM ET Game# 645-646 Play On: Wisconsin -5.5 Despite playing against the 337th toughest schedule or 26th easiest whichever way you want to interpret it, Penn State still has an uninspiring 8-9 record. Conversely, Wisconsin is 13-3 while playing against the 5th strongest schedule in college basketball. The Badgers are also an impressive 6-2 versus teams in the Top 50 of KenPom rankings. The Badgers are #6 nationally in offensive efficient and #27 defensively. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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01-16-24 | St. John's v. Seton Hall +2.5 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
St. John’s @ Seton Hall 8:30 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On: Seton Hall +2.5 Seton Hall is 5-1 in Big East Conference Play and 3 of those wins took place on the road. The Pirates also own quality home wins over nationally ranked Marquette and UConn. Give me Seton Hall in this one. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 4:30 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Bills -10.0 Since the 2011 NFL postseason, playoff home favorites of between -10.0 and -1.5 are 9-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.1 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL regular season, the Steelers are 0-4 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or greater and they were outscored by 26.0 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS as a conference favorite of between 8.0 to 13.5 and won by an average of 17.8 points per game. McDermott’s Bills are also 3-1 SU&ATS versus Mike Tomlin’s Steelers since 2019 and outscored them by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Packers @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Cowboys -7.0 Dallas is 8-0 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 23.5 points scored per game. The Packers enter the postseason on a 3-game win streak but none of those opponents they faced finished with a winning record. Their offense has steadily improved throughout the season to the point they were impressive down the final stretch of regular season action. Much of that success centered around quarterback Jordan Love who has quietly put together a stellar season which saw home throw for 32 touchdown passes against just 11 picks. However, this will be his first career postseason start and, on the road, no less against a Dallas defense that finished regular season action #5 in yards and points allowed per game. Furthermore, Dallas’ offense finished 1st in scoring at 29.9 points scored per game and #5 in total yards at 371.6 yards per game. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Dallas has gone an outstanding 12-5 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and outscored their opponents by a substantial margin of 15.4 points per game. |
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01-13-24 | Portland v. San Francisco -16.5 | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Portland @ San Francisco 10:00 PM ET Game# 767-798 Play On: San Francisco -16.5 Portland isn’t a good team whatsoever. They rank #248 in offensive efficiency and #292 defensively. Portland has suffered 5 losses this season that KenPom has ranked #220 or worse and were defeated by a sizable average of 9.0 points per game. Additionally, Portland hasn’t registered a win this season versus any team that ranks in KenPom’s Top 160. On the other hand, San Francisco has gone a perfect 8-0 at home this season with an enormous average victory margin of 30.4 points per game. The Dons will also enter tonight on an overall 5-game win streak in which they outscored their opponents by 26.8 points per contest. Give me Portland minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Chiefs -4.5 Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions. It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Temple v. North Texas -11 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Temple @ North Texas 6:00 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: North Texas -11.0 Temple started the season 3-0 and has gone 5-8 since. Those struggles have occurred despite playing against a strength of schedule that ranks #217 according to KenPom. The Owls have also suffered bad losses at the hands of #235 Columbia, #262 Old Domion, #176 East Carolina, and #147 South Florida. On the other hand, North Texas is 7-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. The Mean Green is a very frustrating team to play against since they plat at one of the slowest offensive paces in the country and are an excellent defensive team as well. Give me North Texas minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +2.5 | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Browns @ Texans 4:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Texans +2.5 The Browns are getting a lot of love as a Super Bowl sleeper pick out of the AFC. However, getting by Houston on the road will be no easy task despite them currently being a small favorite in the contest. Here’s the thing, Houston has committed just 14 turnovers this season. Conversely, Cleveland has managed to go 11-6 this season despite an alarmingly high 37 turnovers committed. That 37-14 disparity is the largest ever for an NFL postseason game. Let alone, the team that’s -23 is a road favorite. Additionally, Houston is 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home when C.J. Stroud is their starting quarterback. Stroud is a stone-cold lock for NFL Rookie of the Year while throwing 23 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions in his 15 starts. Compare that to his counterpart Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 picks in just 5 starts. Cleveland’s overall defensive numbers are extremely good. But they’re magnificent at home and average at best on the road where they’re allowing 29.6 points per game. Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs have gone 31-16 ATS including 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU when they were a dog of 2.0 or less. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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01-13-24 | Fordham v. St Bonaventure -10 | 80-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Fordham @ Saint Bonaventure 2:30 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: St. Bonaventure -10.0 Fordham has an uninspiring 7-8 record this season while facing a soft strength of schedule that ranks #333 nationally. They’ve also sustained bad losses to #217 Abilene Christian, #260 Central Connecticut State, and #331 NJIT. They also among the nation’s worst in free throws allowed. Conversely, St. Bonaventure ranks 19th nationally in free throw percentage while making 77.5%. The Bonnies are also a very good 3-points shooting team ranking #34 in that category. Give me St. Bonaventure minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Wisconsin | 63-71 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ Wisconsin 8:10 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 Wisconsin is an excellent team and well deserving of their ranking. But, Northwestern is more than capable of holding their own in this matchup if not pull an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and will take the generous number of points given to me. Northwestern already has quality wins this season over Dayton, Purdue, and Michigan State. The Wildcats are also 2-1 in true road games. They say the ability to make 3-point shots is the great equalizer for a college basketball underdog. This is certainly one of those situations I subscribe to that theory. Northwestern is #29 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.7%. Conversely, Wisconsin is #280 nationally in 3-point defensive shooting percentage. Give me Northwestern plus points. |
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01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -8 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Pelicans @ Nuggets 10:10 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Nuggets -8.0 This line jumped right off the board at me. Granted the Nuggets are the defeding world champions. However, New Orleans has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games. They’re begging to take the underdog in this spot but I’m not taking the bait and will go the opposite way. It must be noted, New Orleans has listed 4 of their top 5 scorers as questionable in this contest and those 4 players average a combined 77.2 points scored per game. Denver is coming off a disappointing 124-111 loss at Utah. Nevertheless, Denver is 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately after a loss and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me Denver minus the points. |
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01-11-24 | UCLA +9 v. Utah | 44-90 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Utah 9:00 PM ET Game# 803-804 Play On: UCLA +9.0 Utah has certainly faced a very difficult schedule but has still gone 11-4 and is 8-0 at home. However, they come off road losses in their last 2 games to Arizona 92-73 and Arizona State 82-70. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season Utah is an abysmal 2-13 SU following a conference loss by 10 points or more. UCLA is off to an extremely disappointing 6-9 start to the season which includes losing 7 of their last 8. Nevertheless, the Bruins have seen all 9 of their losses come by 9 points or fewer so it’s not like their getting blown out by anybody. Their issues come on the offensive side where they’ve struggled for most of the season up until this point. However, they’re only allowing 62.1 points per game and holding their opponents to 39.1% which has kept them competttive throughout. Give me UCLA plus points. |
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01-11-24 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-135 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Celtics @ Bucks 7:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Celtics +4.5 The Bucks are an impressive 16-3 at home this season. However, they lost their last 2 in Milwaukee to Utah 132-116 and Indiana 122-113. As a matter of fact, the Bucks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall. The Celtics find themselves as an underdog for just the 2nd time all season. Since the start of last season, Boston is 9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU as an underdog. All 4 of those SU losses came by 6 points or fewer and by a combined 15 points. Their lone time as an underdog this season, they were +3.0 at Sacramento and won 144-119. Give me the Celtics plus points. |
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01-10-24 | Butler v. Marquette -11.5 | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Butler @ Marquette 9:00 PM ET Game# 731-732 Play On: Marquette -11.5 Marquette is much better than their 11-4 even indicates. The Golden Eagles have faced the 7th most difficult schedule in the nation thus far. They own quality wins at Illinois (11-3) by 7, Kansas (13-1) by 14, Texas (12-3) by 21, and Creighton (12-4) by 5. Marqutte is coming off a loss at Seton Hall. Nevertheless, the Golden eagles are 3-0 following a loss this season while winning by a huge margin of 29.3 points per game. Butler enters this matchup having gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and was outscored by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me Marquette minus the points. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Michigan -4.5 The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -2.5 Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Rams v. 49ers -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rams @ 46ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: 49ers -4.0 The 49ers have clinched the NFC #1 seed and will rest starters Brock Purdy (QB) and Christian McCaffery (RB) just to name a couple. However, I like the 49ers chances much more with Sam Darnold at quarter than the Rams expected starter Carson Wentz. The Rams have clinched a wildcard berth and will be either a #6 or #7 seed. Hence Sean McVay has chosen to rest starters Mathew Stafford (QB), Aaron Donald (DT), Cooper Kupp (WR), and Kyren Williams (RB). I also like the quality depth on the 4ers roster much more than that of the Rams. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles -4 v. Giants | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Giants 4:25 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Eagles -4.0 The Eagles have pretty much squandered what looked to be a commanding lead in the NFC East with their late season swoon that seen them go 1-4 over their last 5 games. The epitome of that collapse occurred last week when they blew and 15-point halftime lead in a 35-31 home loss versus the Arizona Cardinals (4-12) that allowed the Dallas Cowboys to surpass them in the standings. The bottom line is this, Philadelphia needs something to feel good about heading into the postseason especially where it’s likely they’ll require 3 road wins to get back to the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season. The Giants (5-11) playoff hopes have long been gone and they enter their regular season finale on a 3-game losing streak. The Giants have lost 5 straight games to the Eagles and by a substantial average of 19.0 points per contest. The Eagle defense has been anything but playoff caliber over their previous 6 games while allowing 31.5 points and 398.8 points per contest. Nonetheless, they don’t figure to get exposed by a Giants offense which has averaged 12.3 points scored and 277.9 yards gained per contest over 7 home games. Give me the Eagles minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bears v. Packers -2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
Bears @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Packers -2.5 The Bears have played terrific down the final stretch of regular season action with all being considered. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and is 6-1-1 ATS during their previous 8 contests. The Packers have been no slouches as well while winning 5 of their last 7 and averaged 31.2 points scored per game. The Packers are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 versus Chicago including a 38-20 blowout win at Soldier Field in their regular season opener. Urgency and desperation will be on the side of the Packers since with a win earns them an NFL Wildcard spot. Give me the Packers minus points. |
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01-06-24 | St. John's v. Villanova -4.5 | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
St. Johns @ Villanova 1:00 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: Villanova -4.5 Villanova has endured some resume killing losses this season. Namely, they lost to Philadelphia Big 5 rivals Drexel, Penn, and St. Joseph’s. However, they’re 5-0 versus teams that are ranked in the Top 41 of KenPom rankings. The Wildcats are on a current 4-game win streak with wins over UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, and DePaul. During those 4 contests their defense has been outstanding while holding opponents to 60.5 points per game and 36% shooting. With Rick Pitino and St. John’s and St. John’s coming to town I look for Villanova to be more than up to the challenge. Give me Villanova minus points. |
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01-05-24 | Connecticut v. Butler +6 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Connecticut @ Butler 6:30 PM ET Game# 877-878 Play On: Butler +6.0 This will be just the 3rd true road game for UConn this season and they lost to Kansas by 4 and Seton Hall by 15 in the first 2. Butler is 10-4 but it’s worth noting that they’re 8-0 at home and considering their a sizable underdog in this spot that element can’t be ignored. Butler has also played the tougher schedule to this point compared to UConn which may not result in winning this game outright but certainly bodes well for them to be competitive throughout and stay inside the number. Give me Butler plus points. |
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01-03-24 | Indiana v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Indiana @ Nebraska 9:00 PM ET Game# 705-706 Play On: Nebraska -5.0 Nebraska is 11-2 and every good as their record indicates. The Cornhuskers have quality depth and are a very experienced team. Indiana is one of the youngest teams in the Big 10 Conference. It seems odd to see Nebraska as a favorite over Indiana in basketball. With that in mind, it most likely will produce a fair share of underdog bets just based on the perception of reach programs history on the hardwood. Give me Nebraska minus points. |
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01-03-24 | USC Upstate v. North Carolina-Asheville -10 | 67-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
USC-Upstate @ UNC-Asheville 6:00 PM ET Game# 306513-306514 Play On: UNC-Asheville -10.0 UNC-Asheville is very good offensively and especially so at home where they’re averaging 92.0 points per game. Asheville is also very adept at getting to the free throw line while averaging 26 attempts per game. That’s not good news for a USC-Upstate team that allows 24 free throw attempts per game. USC-Upstate is a poor 2-8 this season versus Division 1 competition and they’re also 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 12.0 or less. Asheville is coming off 3 consecutive non-conference games which saw them go 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS while hold those opponents to less than 40% shooting. Since last season, Asheville is 8-1 ATS at home following 3 consecutive non-conference games with an average victory margin of 25.1 points per contest. Give me UNC-Asheville minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Texas -3.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Texas -3.5 This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Liberty v. Oregon -17.5 | 6-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Oregon 1:00 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Oregon -17.5 Liberty comes into this New Year’s Fiesta Bowl game undefeated at 13-0 and will take on a Power 5 Conference team for the first time this season. Although they look forward to the challenge and tough task at hand, it may be one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios. 6th year quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix will play for Oregon. All Nix did this year was throw for 4145 yards and 40 touchdowns against only 3 picks. Nix also ran for 228 yards and 6 scores as well. Oregon will be without some key offensive skill position players who have opted out. But the Ducks annually bring in top recruiting classes and have high quality depth. Oregon is 11-2 and their only losses were a pair of 3-point defeats against #2 Washington (13-0). Additionally, Oregon is #10 nationally in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game. Oregon is also #2 in both scoring and total offense. Liberty is #1 nationally when it comes to rushing offense at 302.9 yards per game and #3 in total offense. However, Oregon is 12th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 97.9 yards per game. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee -5.5 | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Iowa vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Tennessee -5.5 Yes, Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton Jr. opted out of this bowl game. But, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Tennessee will go with 5* true freshmen Nico Iamaleava who projected to be a star. Iowa’s offense is anemic and that might be kind. On the other hand, the Hawkeye defense is excellent and the main reason they went 10-2 during regular season action before losing to Michigan 26-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game. By, the way, the Tennessee defense is a pretty good unit as well and faced a lot more explosive offenses in the SEC than Iowa faced in the top heavy Big 10. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Bengals +6.5 The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games. Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak. Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points. |
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12-31-23 | Steelers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Seahawks 4::05 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Seahawks -3.5 Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-11 home win over Cincinnatti that kept their AFC Wildvcard hopes alive. I’m extremely confident that we’ll see a gross overreaction from the sports betting public as a result. The fact of the matter is I’ve been calling the Steelers a fraud for the last 2 months and 1 dominating performance with a 3rd string quarterback playing over his head isn’t about to change my mind. Although they haven’t attained the results they would have hoped for, Seattle has played very well down the stretch while going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. During that span, they faced San Francisco (11-4) twice, Dallas (10-5), Philadelphia (11-4), and the LA Rams (8-7). Furthermore, Seattle is 4-0 SU in non-division home games this season. Give me the Seahawks minus points. Play on any NFL favorite versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 14 points or more who has a win percentage of between .450 to .550, resulted in those NFL favorites going 52-23 ATS (69.3%) since 1983. |
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12-31-23 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 19-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Ravens -3.0 The Dolphins have played an extremely soft schedule this season that has seen them face 11 teams that currently have a losing record in their first 15 games. Miami finally defeated a team with a winning record for the first time in 29 contests last Sunday in a 2-point home win over Dallas. The previous time they accomplished that feat was in September of 2022 and a 21-19 home win over Buffalo. It’s been quite a while since Miami defeated a team with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 not played at home versus teams with a winning record and allowed 33.3 points per game. The Baltimore defense has played extremely well this season and they’ll be challenged on Sunday by a Miami team which averages 30.9 points scored per game. However, the Ravens are 6-0 SU&ATS this season when they faced a team that was averaging 24.0 or more points scored per contest and with an average victory margin of 21.8 points scored per game. Baltimore also will enter this extremely important AFC matchup on a 5-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by an average of 12.0 points scored per game. The Ravens have also scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games played. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Colts -4.0 The Raiders are coming off a emotional 20-14 win at Kansas City as a double-digit underdog. Nevertheless, let’s keep things in perspective because both Raiders touchdowns were scored by their defense, and they faced a Kansas City offense which had been struggling offensively of late and turning the ball over way too much. Truth be told, the Raiders offense produced just an atrocious 205 yards of total offense in that win at Kansas City. They’ve been anemic offensively on the road this season while averaging a scant 14.7 points scored and 236.9 yards gained per game while also being outscored by an average of 9.3 points per contest. The Colts started the season by losing 4 of their first 5 games at home. But they won their last 2 in Indianapolis with victories over Pittsburgh 30-14 and Tampa Bay 27-20 both of which currently have 8-7 records with each still alive for a playoff berth. Unlike the Raiders offensive struggles on the road, the Colts are averaging 27.0 points scored and 375.9 yards gained per game at home. The Colts are engulfed in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC South standings with Houston and Jacksonville. Urgency, desperation, and playing at home will be instrumental to the Colts getting the win and cover. Give me the Colts minus points. |
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12-30-23 | West Virginia v. Ohio State -9 | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
West Virginia vs. Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 681-682 Play On: Ohio State -9.0 No analysis on College Basketball today. |
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12-30-23 | Wichita State v. Kansas -13 | 67-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Wichita State vs. Kansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 649-650 Play On: Kansas -13.0 No analysis on College Basketball today. |
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12-30-23 | Auburn -4.5 v. Maryland | 13-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Maryland vs. Auburn 2:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Auburn -4.5 Auburn is an excellent running team that’s rushed for 144 yards or more in all 7 games versus SEC opponents. That includes running for 244 yards vs. #4 Alabama (12-1) and 219 yards against #6 Georgia (12-1) in near upsets of both those highly ranked foes. Maryland will be without their starting quarterback who opted out to prepare himself for the NFL draft. That’s an issue when considering Marland averages only 109 yards rushing per game and 56.7% of their offensive plays have been pass attempts. Last, the Terrapins defense allowed their last 4 opponents to rush for 152 yards or more (170.8 YPG). Give me Auburn minus points. |
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12-29-23 | McNeese State +10.5 v. Michigan | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
McNeese State @ Michigan 7:00 PM ET Game# 306535-306536 Play On: McNeese State +10.5 No analysis on today’s games due to time restrictions. |
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12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors -3.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Heat @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Warriors -3.5 This pick is more about positives for the Warriors than negatives applied to Miami. Golden State began this season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. The Warriors have since rebounded to win 8 consecutive home games. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Golden State is 40-21 ATS at home when facing an opponent like Miami that possesses a winning record and with a respectable +8.0 per game point differential. Lastly, Golden State has averaged 123.8 points scored per game and shot a red-hot 49.9% over their previous 5 contests. Give me the Warriors minus points. |
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12-28-23 | Pacers v. Bulls +1.5 | 120-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Bulls +1.5 These are teams that are headed down opposite paths right now. Indiana has gone 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 games with 1 of those wins coming over Detroit (2-28) who’s currently on a 27-game losing streak. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 51% or better in 8 of their last 10 contests. Indiana is coming off a road win over Houston. However, the Pacers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win. Conversely, Chicago is 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS over their last 11 games. The Bulls are also 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their previous 5 games as an underdog. Chicago comes off a 118-113 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 1.0-point home underdog. The Bulls are 9-2 SU since the start of last season following a game in which they won SU as a home underdog, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when cast into that identical role. Give me the Bulls. |
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12-28-23 | Rutgers v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Rutgers vs. Miami Fla. 2:15 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Miami Fla. +2.5 Despite going 3-5 in their last 8 regular season games, Miami still finished at 7-5. Since the start of last season, Rutgers has gone 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record and were outscored by a substantial margin of 26.6 points per game. The Rutgers offense relies heavily on their running game. The Scarlett Knights have run the ball on 62.9% of their offense plays and 54% of their total yards have come on the ground. However, Miami ranks 16th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 96 yards per game and a mere 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Miami will go with 3rd string quarterback Jacurri Brown against Rutgers. Brown will be seeing his first action of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl. Nevertheless, he played in 8 games a season ago which included 2 starts. Brown is a big 240-pound quarterback with agility as evidence by his 223 yards rushing in limited playing time. He also threw for 3 touchdowns and was intercepted just once in those 2 starts. Give me Miami plus points. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5 Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams. |
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12-27-23 | North Carolina v. West Virginia -5 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
West Virginia vs. North Carolina 5:30 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: West Virginia -5.0 North Carolina will be without their 3 top players in quarterback Drake Maye, wide receiver Tez Walker, and linebacker Cedric Gray. If there’s a reason to call an 8-4 team disappointing, then North Carolina fits the bill. The Tar Heels began the season 6-0 but finished the regular season by going 1-4 versus Division 1 teams. The elephant in the room for North Carolina has been their porous defense and that’s especially been the case during the final stretch of regular season action. North Carolina has allowed 31 points or more in their last 6 games versus Division 1 competition. Conversely, West Virginia has scored 34 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games and surpassed 500 yards of total offense on 4 of those occasions. The Mountaineers have overachieved this season by going 8-4 when considering there wasn’t much expected this season. Furthermore, the Mountaineers roster remains virtually intact in comparison to most of this season's bowl participants when it comes to losing players to the transfer portal or opt outs. Give me West Virginia minus points. |
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12-26-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Thunder | 106-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Timberwolves +2.5 Oklahoma City averages just 23 free throw attempts per game this season and that’s a significant note as it applies to this matchup. Conversely, Minnesota has gone a perfect 17-0 SU this season versus opponents that average 24 or fewer free throw attempts per game and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per contest. Another worthwhile fact as it applies to today’s game. The Timberwolves have made a red-hot 40.5% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 while the Thunder has allowed team to make 39.8% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Minnesota enters today having gone 21-4 during their previous 5 games. Give me the Timberwolves plus points. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: 49ers -6.0 The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points. |