Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -6 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida @ Utah 8:00 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Utah -6.0 Utah was upset in their season opener a year ago by Florida in a game that went into the very late stages of the 4th quarter before a winner was finally decided. However, all you need to do is look at the Florida Gators regular season over/under win total of 5.5. When doing so, it tells you what the sharpest minds in sports betting, which are oddsmakers, think of Florida’s chances of even reaching a in a bowl game this year, let alone beating a Top 10 caliber team in their season opener. Utah has gone 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. Furthermore, since 10/17/2015, the Utes are a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite while playing with revenge. The average line during those 11 situations was 11.5 and the Utes outscored their opponents by an average of 18.6 points per game. If the worst-case scenario is Rising being ruled out at gametime, I still like the Utes even at this current number. Otherwise, if Rising is available, this line will move much closer or match the opening number of 9.5. Either way, give me Utah minus points. |
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08-28-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
White Sox (Kopech) @ Orioles (Rodriguez) 7:05 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (-117) Michael Kopech has an awful 7.16 ERA/1.84 WHIP over his last 6 starts. Kopech has allowed an alarmingly high 28 homers during 120.0 innings pitched this season. That’s genuine cause for concern considering he’ll be facing an Orioles team which has belted 12 home runs during their previous 7 games. The White Sox are coming off home wins over the lowly Oakland A’s on Saturday and Sunday. However, they haven’t put together a 3-game win streak since 8/6 and did so just once since 6/8. The White Sox bullpen has an unappealing 5.90 ERA over their previous 7 games and that includes allowing 6 homers in 29.0 innings pitched. After a rough start to the season, Baltimore’s young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is coming into his own as of late. Rodriguez has a stellar 2.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP over his last 5 starts and averaged a healthy 6.2 innings pitched per outing. The Orioles bullpen has been excellent over their last 7 games with a staff 2.21 ERA/0.64 WHIP and a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Baltimore is 25-6 this season as a money line favorite of -150 or greater and they averaged 6.0 runs scored per game. Give me the Orioles as a run-line favorite. |
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08-26-23 | Raiders -4.5 v. Cowboys | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 38 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Cowboys 8;00 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Raiders -4.5 Dallas lost and failed to cover in their first 2 preseason games. That makes the Cowboys an abysmal 9-25 SU and 8-23-3 ATS in their last 34 preseason games. The Raiders are coming off impressive wins of 34-7 at home versus San Francisco and 34-17 at the Los Angeles Rams. That now makes current head coach Josh McDaniels 6-0 SU&ATS in preseason games with the Raiders and with an average victory margin of 14.2 points per game. Any NFL preseason away favorite like Las Vegas that’s facing an opponent like Dallas who’s playing their 3rd preseason game and lost their first 2, resulted in those away favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1999. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 13.6 points per game. Give the Raiders minus points. |
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08-26-23 | Ohio +2.5 v. San Diego State | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Ohio @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Ohio +2.5 This line jumped right off the page at me when it first came out. Ohio as a short road favorite versus a Mountain West football program with a fine winning tradition. However, upon further review, this is an Ohio team that went 10-4 last season, reached the MAC Championship Game, and beat another Mountain West Conference team in a bowl game by way of a 30-27 win over Wyoming. They finished the season on a 8-1 winning run. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year a season ago that was cut short by an ACL injury in Game 11 at Ball State. However, Rourke still threw for 3256 yards with 25 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions. He also ran for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. Since 9/23/17, Ohio has gone 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less and won by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Ohio plus points. |
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08-26-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | 15-19 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Seahawks +3.0 Seattle is coming home wins in their first 2 preseason games by scores of 24-13 over Minnesota and 22-14 versus Dallas. Any NFL Preseason underdog of 5.0 or less like Seattle that’s coming off back-to-back home wins and is undefeated, and they won their previous game by 4 points or more, resulted in those underdogs going 16-3 ATS (84.2%) since 1997 while also winning 14 of those 19 contests straight up. Furthermore, if those teams were an underdog of between 3.0 and 5.0, they improve to 13-0 ATS and 11-2 SU. Give me the Seahawks plus points. |
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08-24-23 | Steelers -4.5 v. Falcons | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Steelers 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Pittsburgh -4.5 Pittsburgh won and covered their first 2 preseason games 27-17 at Tampa Bay and 27-15 at home over Buffalo. Since 2017, and all under current head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS during preseason action. Conversely, during that identical time frame, Atlanta has gone 4-16-1 SU and 4-17 ATS, and that includes 1-8-1 SU and 1-10 ATS when playing at home. Atlanta is coming off last week’s 13-13 tie versus Cincinnati in a game they failed to cover as a 6.0-point home favorite. When it comes to preseason action, it would be difficult to make a case against the Steelers quarterback rotation of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubsiky, and Mason Rudolph not being the best in the NFL. Any NFL preseason road favorite like Pittsburgh coming off back-to-back SU&ATS wins, and theyre facing an opponent like Atlanta who failed to cover their previous game by 4.0-points or more, resulted in those road favorites going a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those exact situations came by a substantial 16.7 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Saints @ Chargers 7:05 PM ET Game# 429-430 Play On: Saints -3.5 New Orleans is coming off last Sunday’s 26-24 home win over Kansas City. The Chargers are coming off a 34-17 blowout win as a 2.5-point road underdog in their preseason opener. At the time of this writing, the total in this contest is 37.0 which ties into 1 of my 3 NFL preseason betting angles applicable to this game. Any NFL Preseason favorite of 6.0 or less like the saints that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win. And they’re facing a team like the Chargers who’s coming off an away underdog SU win, has gone 6-0 ATS since 2011 and with an average victory margin of 9.4 points per contest. Any NFL Preseason away team like the Saints New Orleans who’s point-spread is between +2.0 and -6.0, and their coming off a home win in which they scored 34 points or less, resulted in the road teams within those point-spread parameters going 10-1 SU&ATS since 2019. Any NFL preseason away favorite of 6.0 or less and with a total of 43.0 or less like the Saints, and they’re coming off a SU win, versus a team like the Chargers that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, resulted in those away favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average victory margin for those away teams was 10.3 points per game. Give me the Saints minus the points. |
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08-20-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Orioles (Bradish) @ A’s (Sears) 4:07 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (-115) Oakland is an abysmal 9-41 during day games this season and was outscored by a substantial average of 3.2 runs per game. Oakland’s slated left-handed starter J.P. Sears has displayed poor form over his last 3 starts while compiling a 5.79 ERA/2.07 WHIP. He’s very lucky his ERA wasn’t much higher during that span considering that extremely high 2.07 WHIP. Especially when considering that Sears has given up a whopping 26 home runs in 130 2/3 innings pitched this season. The same can be said for the Oakland bullpen that has a staff 5.96 ERA/2.06 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Kyle Bradish has been in good form over his last 3 starts with a 2.55 ERA/1.08 WHIP throughout his previous 3 starts. Bradish is an extremely profitable 7-1 his day game team starts this season while posting a sparkling 2.28 ERA/1.04 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has registered a very good 2.33 ERA/1.11 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Orioles are also 29-14 this season versus lefthanded starting pitchers and 40-24 in road games. Give me the Orioles as a run-line favorite. |
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08-19-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Vikings | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Titans @ Vikings 8:00 PM ET Game# 419-420 Play On: Titans -2.5 Since taking over as head coach in Minnesota last season, Kevin O’Connell has seen his team go 0-4 SU&ATS in preseason action and they lost by an average of 9.3 points per game. It comes as no shock to me the Titans come up as a small favorite in this spot. As a matter of fact, the Vikings preseason futility extend beyond O’Connell’s current tenure. Minnesota is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 preseason games. Minnesota is coming off last week’s 24-13 loss at Seattle in a game they failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. Tennessee is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games when their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5 and with a decisive victory margin of 22.5 points per game. Tennessee put an impressive 372 yards of total offense in last week’s 23-17 loss at Chicago. The 2 young Titans backup quarterbacks Malik Willis and Will Levis went a combined 25-39 (64.1%) passing for 274 yards. Tennessee was victimized by 4 turnovers and their offensive line allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked 8 times. I’m betting those frequency of mistakes won’t come close to happening again. Give me Tennessee minus the small number. |
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08-19-23 | Dolphins +2 v. Texans | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Texans 4:00 PM ET Game# 407-408 Play On: Dolphins +2.0 Miami is coming off a humbling 19-3 loss to Atlanta as the home favorite in their preseason opener last week. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 preseason games following a loss and with a massive average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. One of those wins came last season under current head coach Mike McDaniel when they lambasted the Philadelphia Eagles 48-10. Let’s not get carried away with Houston’s 20-9 preseason opening win at New England last week. Quite frankly the Patriots aren’t very good and have very little in the way of quality depth. Any NFL Preseason away pick or favorite of 2.5 or less like Miami, and they’re coming off a home favorite loss by 10 points or more in their preseason opener, resulted in those away teams going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The average victory margin was 7.8 points per game. Give me the Miami Dolphins to cover. |
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08-17-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Brewers (Burnes) @ Dodgers (Lynn) 10:10 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+145) Corbin Burnes is widely recognized as one of the best National League starting pitchers. However, Burnes has made 4 career starts versus the Dodgers and recoded a horrible 10.34 ERA/1.91 WHIP during those appearances. The Dodgers have won 4 in a row versus the Brewers this season and outscored them by a immense margin of 27-6 while doing so. Los Angeles has won 10 consecutive games going into to today and won 8 of those by 2 runs or more. They’re also 14-1 in their last 15 and includes a perfect 9-0 at Dodger Stadium. Lance Lynn has been rejuvenated since coming over to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. During his last 3 starts, Lynn has an impressive 2.00 ERA/0.94 WHIP while averaging 6.0 innings pitched per outing and compiled an excellent 22:4 strikeout to walk ratio. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding over their last 7 games while compiling an excellent staff 0.39 ERA/0.34 WHIP. The Dodgers are 19-3 this season after allowing 4 runs or fewer in each of their last 3 outings and with a huge +3.8 run per game differential. Give me the Dodgers as a run-line favorite. |
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08-11-23 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 3-11 | Win | 127 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Angels (Detmers) @ Astros (Verlander) 8:10 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Astros -1.5 (+127) The Angels Ross Detmers has exhibited terrible form over his last 5 starts with an 8.61 ERA/1.70 WHIP. Detmers has a sizable 6.55 ERA during his 2 starts versus Houston this season. The Angels bullpen has an uninspiring 5.68 ERA/1.78 WHIP over their last 7 games. Justin Verlander has been superb over his last 4 starts while compiling a 1.37 ERA/0.95 WHIP and averaging a healthy 6.5 innings pitched per outing. The Astros bullpen has an impressive 1.71 ERA as a staff during their previous 7 games. Houston is coming off yesterday’s 5-4 loss at Baltimore. However, the Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 and 9-1 during their previous 10 games immediately following a loss. Give me the Astros as a run-line favorite. |
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08-11-23 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bucs | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Steelers 7:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Steelers -2.5 Since 2017, Pittsburgh has gone 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in all preseason games within the point-spread parameters of +3.5 to -3.5. All those games came under the guidance of current head coach Mike Tomlin and the average margin of victory came by 8.8 points per game. Conversely, Todd Bowles begins his 2nd year as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. During his first preseason campaign in 2022, Bowles team went 0-3 SU&ATS and were defeated by a decisive average of 9.7 points per game. Give me the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the small number. |
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08-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Liberatore) @ Rays (Littel) 6:40 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: Rays -1.5 (+108) The Cardinals are coming off a win at Tampa yesterday to even this current series at 1-1. However, St. Louis has gone a dismal 0-6 throughout their previous 6 games immediately following a loss. Furthermore, during those 6 defeats they scored 3 runs or fewer on each occasion and averaged 2.0 runs scored per game. Mathew Liberatore is the slated starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he’s compiled a horrible 10.45 ERA/2.13 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Additionally, Liberatore has a massive 11.48 ERA/2.10 WHIP during 4 road starts in 2023. Zack Little has pitched very well in 5 starts for Tampa Bay with a 2.45 ERA/1.20 WHIP. The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. Tampa is 15-6 this season when facing lefthanded starting pitchers like Liberatore and with a +2.3 run per games differential. They also average 1.57 home runs per game when facing those left-handed starting pitchers. Even more impressive is the fact they’re 9-2 at home versus southpaw starters with a decisive +2.7 run per game differential. Give me the Rays as a run-line favorite. |
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08-07-23 | Yankees -1.5 v. White Sox | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cole) @ White Sox (Cease) 8:10 PM ET Game# 969-970 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (+100) The White Sox will be facing one of the Top 5 dominant pitchers in MLB tonight. If that’s not tough enough, they’ve averaged a mere 2.6 runs scored per game over their previous 7 outings. The White Sox slated starter Dylan Cease has been horrible in his last 2 starts while allowing 11 earned runs, 11 hits, and walked 5 batters in just 7 1/3 innings pitched. Cease is 0-3 in his career teams starts versus the Yankees and with a massive 9.54 ERA and each of those outings transpired since 2021. Gerrit Cole has been extremely good in a high percentage of his starts this season. Cole has displayed superb form over his last 4 starts with a 1.71 ERA/0.68 WHIP while striking out 34 batters and wlaked just 4. Since the start of last season, the Yankees are 15-0 versus AL Central Division teams like Chicago when Gerrit Cole is their starter. Give me the Yankees on the run-line. |
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08-06-23 | Mets v. Orioles -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 116 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Mets (Quintana) @ Orioles (Bradish) 1:35 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (+116) The Mets have now lost 5 straight and were outscored by a combined 39-14. He Mets bullpen has a horrible 6.92 ERA/1.69 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. The Baltimore Orioles are 26-12 versus lefthanded starting pitchers this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 1.5 runs per game. The Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has been terrific in 8 starts at Camden Yards this season 2.39 ERA/0.92 WHIP while averaging 6.1 innings pitched per outing. The Orioles bullpen has been excellent over their last 7 games while collecting a staff 0.43 ERA and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Baltimore is 26-12 in 2023 when facing lefthanded starting pitchers like Jose Quintana. The Orioles are 6-1 in their 7 while scoring 6 or more runs on 5 of those occasions. Give me the Orioles as a run-line favorite. |
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08-06-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Royals (Greinke) @ Phillies (Walker) 1:35 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-108) The Royals are 1-9 on the road this season when Zack Greinke is their starting pitcher. During those 10 away starts, Greinke posted a 7.40 ERA and 14 home runs during 48 2/3 innings pitched. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled over their previous 7 games with a staff 6.45 ERA/1.52 WHIP. The Royals had their season long 7-game win streak snapped in yesterday’s 9-6 loss at Philadelphia. The Phillies Taijuan Walker has been terrific at home this season while going 8-2 in his team starts with a 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP. Since the start of last season, Walker has gone 25-5 during his team starts when facing teams with a losing record. The Phillies bullpen has been very good at home this season while recording a staff 2.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP. Give me the Phillies as a run-line favorite. |
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08-05-23 | Mets v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 105 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Mets (Megill) @ Orioles (Gibson) 7:05 PM ET Game# 975-976 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (+105) The Mets have lost their last 4 while being outscored by a cumulative 30-11. New York has also dropped 7 of their last 8 road games. Tylor Megill has a a horrible 7.99 ERA/2.23 WHIP during 8 road starts this season. The Mets bullpen has an undesirable 6.57 ERA/1.62 WHP throughout their previous 7 games. New York is coming off a 10-3 loss last night at Camden Yards. They’ve gone 1-9 on the road this season after allowing 9 runs or more in their previous outing and were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game. Kyle Gibson exhibited good form over his last 3 starts with a 3.00 ERA/1.06 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been stellar over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.13 ERA/1.03 WHIP. During that identical stretch, Baltimore averaged 6.6 runs scored per game while compiling a .307 team batting average and .369 on-base percentage. Give me the Baltimore Orioles on the run-line. |
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07-28-23 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
Angels (Giolito) @ Blue Jays (Gausman) 7:07 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Toronto -1.5 (+108) Lucas Giolito makes his Angels debut today after being obtained earlier in the week in a trade with the White Sox. Giolito’s road performance line in 2023 leaves much to be desired as it reads a 5.25 ERA/1.58 WHIP during 11 starts. Furthermore, Giolito has an abysmal 4-17 team start record since the start of last season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater like he’ll be today. Granted the Angels are a red-hot 8-1 in their last 9. However, they played a doubleheader at Detroit yesterday and will be facing a Toronto team that was off on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that the Angels are 8-17 this season when facing teams like Toronto who have a win percentage of between .540 and .620. Kevin Gausman has been terrific in 9 home starts this season while recording a 2.58 ERA/0.99 WHIP and averaged a healthy 6.6 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Toronto is 3-0 when facing Lucas Giolito as an opposing starting pitcher. Additionally, Giolito’s terrible 8.62 ERA/1.79 WHIP during those 3 outings was a major contributor to Toronto winning all 3 of those games. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays as a run-line favorite. |
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07-16-23 | Yankees -1.5 v. Rockies | 7-8 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cole) @ Rockies (Anderson) 3:05 PM ET Game# 979-980 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (-133) I have no idea why Colorado keeps Chase Anderson in their starting rotation. Throughout his last 4 starts Anderson has compiled a brutal 18.23 ERA/2.93 WHIP and allowed an alarmingly high 8 home runs in just 13 1/3 innings pitched. Colorado is gone a dismal 21-41 when facing righthanded starting pitchers this season while also going 14-22 during day games. Gerrit Cole has gone a perfect 10-0 in his team starts this season as a money line favorite of -150 or greater and the Yankees won by an average of 2.8 runs per game. Cole has a superb 2.90 ERA/1.08 WHIP in 10-day-game starts in 2023. The Yankees ace has allowed a mere 2 home runs in 41.0 innings pitched on the road this year. New York is an impressive 24-11 during day games this season. Give me the New York Yankees on the run-line. |
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07-03-23 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Royals (Cox) @ Twins (Ryan) 8:10 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Twins -1.5 (-114) (5*) Kansas City has gone a pathetic 12-38 (.240) during night games in 2023 and with a -2.0 run per game differential. Austin Cox will be making just his 3rd career MLB start for Kansas City. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Royals bullpen which has posted a lofty 6.40 ERA/1.58 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Minnesota is 6-1 versus Kansas City this season and all 6 wins came by 2 runs or more. The Twins Joe Ryan is 5-0 in his career team starts versus Kansas City with an excellent 1.20 ERA/0.83 WHIP. Ryan has a brilliant 2.70 ERA/0.79 WHIP in 7 home starts this season. The Twins bullpen has a superb 1.77 ERA/0.79 WHIP as a staff throughout their previous 7 games. Give me the Minnesota Twins as a run-line favorite. |
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07-02-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Nationals (Williams) @ Phillies (Suarez) 1:35 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-125) (5*) This will be the rubber match of a 3-game series in which Washington won the series opener and Philadelphia prevailed yesterday in a 19-4 rout. Since 2021, Philadelphia has dominated this NL East Division series by going 32-11 versus Washington. The Nationals will send Trevor Williams to the mound today. Williams has struggled a bit over his last 3 starts while collecting a 5.02 ERA/1.68 WHIP. The Nationals bullpen has been horrible throughout their previous 8 games. Additionally, Williams has a large 6.04 ERA/1.66 WHIP in 6 starts this season when facing teams from the NL East. The Phillies Ranger Suarez has been in excellent form over his last 6 starts with a 1.35 ERA/0.98 WHIP and averaged a hefty 6.7 innings pitched per outing. During his lone start versus Washington this season, Suarez allowed only 1 earned run in 7.0 innings pitched during an 11-3 Phillies win. The Philadelphia bullpen has been very good at home this season with a staff 2.84 ERA. The Phillies are an impressive 23-13 during day games this season. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies as a run-line favorite. |
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06-25-23 | Mets v. Phillies -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Mets (Carrasco) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 1:35 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (+115) (5*) Carlos Carrasco has displayed poor form over his last 3 starts with a 7.81 ERA/1.97 WHIP and he allowed 4 homers in just 12 2/3 innings pitched. Carrasco has an even worse 8.43 ERA/1.83 WHIP in 5 starts in day games and he surrendered 6 home runs in 21 1/3 innings pitched. The Mets are a miserable 3-14 as a money line away underdog of +100 or greater this season with a -1.6 run per game differential. The Mets are also a terrible 2-10 in their last 12 on the road. Zack Wheeler has been in excellent form over his last 3 starts with a 0.45 ERA/0.78 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has been lights out over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.22 ERA/1.10 WHIP. The Phillies are a very profitable 21-12 in day games this season. The Phillies are 13-4 in their last 17 games and New York has gone a dismal 4-14 in their previous 18 outings. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies on the run-line. All statistics in this analysis are reflective of games played through Friday 6/23. |
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06-23-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Pirates (Ortiz) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+105) (10*) Let’s start with this. Pittsburgh has lost 10 straight and scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their previous 12 games. Throughout their previous 7 the Pirates are averaging a pathetic 1.9 runs per game while recording a .144 team batting average. Pittsburgh will be facing a marlins team which has allowed 3.0 runs per game throughout their last 7 outings. Luis Ortiz is 0-4 in his road team starts this season with a lousy 5.50 ERA and abysmal 1.94 WHIP. Even then, Ortiz is fortunate to have an ERA that low with a WHIP that high. Simply put, he’s wiggled out of lot of james during those starts while flirting with potential disaster. Miami is 14-1 this season as a home favorite of -150 or greater this and outscored their opponents by a decisive average of 3.5 runs per game. During their previous 7 games the Marlins have an outstanding .305 batting average and .352 on-base-percentage as a team. Miami’s Jesus Luzardo is 6-2 in his home team starts this season while posting a stellar 3.04 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Marlins bullpen staff has a combined 2.49 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Give me the Miami Marlins as a run-line favorite for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-20-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Orioles (Bradish) @ Rays (Glasnow) 6:40 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Rays -1.5 (+120) (10*) Kyle Bradish will be making his first start of the season versus Tampa Bay. He made 2 starts versus the Rays last year that were awful based on his 10.25 ERA/1.97 WHIP during those outings. Bradish has struggled during his last 4 starts on the road with a sizable 6.16 ERA/1.42 WHIP while only averaging 4.7 innings pitcher per outing. Tampa Bay had yesterday off. The Rays are 5-0 this season immediately following a day off and won by a substantial margin of 4.2 runs per game. The Rays enter today on a 2-game losing streak. They’ve gone a perfect 7-0 this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 4.0 runs per occurrence. Tyler Glasnow is slated to make the start of Tampa Bay and he’s displayed good form over his last 3 starts with a 2.70 ERA/1.26 WHIP. At the time of this writing, Tampa Bay is a money line favorite of -180. The Rays are 17-2 this season as a money line home favorite of between -150 and -200 and with an average victory margin of 3.1 runs per game. Give me the Rays on the run-line. |
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06-17-23 | Marlins -1.5 v. Nationals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Marlins (Garrett) @ Nationals (Irvin) 4:05 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+100) (5*) Jake Irvin has a terrible 7.78 ERA/1.83 WHIP during 5 home starts this season. Irvin has also gone dismal 0-5 during his last 5 team starts overall with a 8.04 ERA/1.92 WHIP and averaged only 4.1 innings pitched per outing. Washington is 2-9 in their last 11, 8-17 versus left-handed starting pitchers like Braxton Garrett, and 12-22 at home this season with a -1.7 run per game differential. Speaking of Braxton Garrett, he’s gone 5-1 in his last 6 team starts with a superb 2.25 ERA/0.88. Garrett is also 6-1 in his day game starts in 2023 with a brilliant 1.54 ERA/1.00 WHIP and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Miami is 14-5 in their last 19 games. Give me the Miami Marlins on the run-line. |
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06-13-23 | Yankees v. Mets -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Yankees (Severino) @ Mets (Scherzer) 7:10 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: Mets -1.5 (+133) (5*) Luis Severino has exhibited poor form over his last 3 starts while compiling a 6.89 ERA and allowed an alarmingly high 7 home runs during just 15 2/3 innings pitched. By the way, Severino will be facing a Mets team that has smacked 14 homers in their last 7 games. Max Scherzer has been excellent in 3 home starts at Citi Field this season with a sensational 0.50 ERA/0.78 WHIP. Scherzer will be going up against a Yankees club which has scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Mets on the run-line. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*) Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog. NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-05-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Tigers (Wentz) @ Phillies (Nola) 6:40 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-113) (5*) The Tigers Joey Wentz has been in terrible form over his last 4 starts with a 10.38 ERA/2.54 WHIP. The Detroit bullpen has been shaky over their last 7 games with a staff 4.97 ERA/1.77 WHIP. The Tigers have lost their last 3 and 5 of their previous 6 which includes being held scoreless twice. Since 2021, Detroit is an abysmal 14-44 after scoring 2 runs or less in each of their previous 2 games. Aaron Nola is 3-0 in his home team starts this season with a 3.15 ERA/0.95 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a staff 2.49 ERA/1.21 WHIP. Philadelphia has averaged 7.3 runs scored and 12.0 hits per game over their last 3 outings. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies as a money line favorite. |
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06-05-23 | Royals v. Marlins -1.5 | 6-9 | Win | 136 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Royals (Hernandez) @ Marlins (Garrett) 6:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Marlins -1.5 (+136) (5*) Kansas City is coming off yesterday’s 2-0 home win over Colorado. The Royals are an abysmal 0-11 since the start of last season immediately after a shutout win and were outscored by a massive 4.7 runs per game. Miami enters this series on winning runs of 3-0 and 6-2. The Marlins are also 10-2 this season versus American League teams. Braxton Garrett has been in superb form over his last 3 starts with a brilliant 1.66 ERA/0.83 WHIP while averaging 7.1 innings per outing. Give me the Miami Marlins on the run-line. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:00 PM ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Heat +8.5 (5*) The Heat barely missed covering in Game 1 despite attempting only 2 free throws and shooting a miserable 40.6% from the field. Miami amassed 96 field goal attempts in that opening game loss and that’s significant. The Heat are 11-1 SU this season after attempting 93 or more field goal attempts during regulation time in their previous game. That improves to 6-0 SU if they lost that previous game, and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 8.5 points per contest. Those SU results take on added betting value when considering Miami is currently an 8.5-point underdog in Game 2. Furthermore, Miami has gone 4-0 SU in their last 4 this postseason following a game in which they shot 45.7% or worse. As a matter of fact, they shot a red-hot 52.7% in those 4 wins. Miami was just 13-39 from 3-point territory in Game 1. Nevertheless, they finished that contest 7-15 from beyond the 3-point line after starting the contest 6-24. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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06-02-23 | Cubs v. Padres -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Cubs (Taillon) @ Padres (Wacha) 9:40 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: Padres -1.5 (+125) (5*) The Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon is 0-5 during his last 5 team starts with a massive 10.91 ERA/1.91 WHIP. During those outings, Taillon allowed 5 home runs in just 17 1/3 innings pitched. The Cubs bullpen has been extremely shaky throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 5.97 ERA/1.92 WHIP and they allowed 6 home runs in 28 2/3 innings pitched. Chicago has scored a mere 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 7 games. The Padres Michael Wacha has exhibited excellent form over his last 5 starts with a 0.84 ERA/0.72 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has a sparkling 2.71 ERA/1.06 WHIP at home this season. San Diego has scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Give me the San Diego Padres as a run-line favorite. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points. |
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06-01-23 | Phillies v. Mets -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Phillies (Walker) @ Mets (Scherzer) 1:10 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Mets -1.5 (+110) (5*) Tijuan Walker has a massive 9.72 ERA/2.10 WHIP in his last 4 road starts. Philadelphia has gone a dismal 2-8 in their last 10 away games. Max Scherzer has been in exceptional form over his last 3 starts with a 1.00 ERA/0.78 WHIP. Scherzer is 4-0 in his team starts during the day in 2023 with a 1.80 ERA/0.85 WHIP.-+ Since 2021, Scherzer has made 8 starts versus the Phillies and recorded an excellent 2.35 ERA/1.15 WHIP. The Mets won 4-1 at home versus the Phillies yesterday and have now won 7 straight at Citi Field. Give me the Mets on the run-line. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Celtics -8.0 (5*) The Celtics staved off elimination with an impressive blowout win at Miami in Game 4. NBA Playoffs home favorites of -6.0 to -12.5 like Boston that are down 3-1 in their current series, resulted in those home favorites going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU since the 2009 postseason. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. The only non-cover came on 4/30/2013 when Denver was a 7.5-point home favorite and they won by 7 versus Golden State. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*) Boston has lost the first 3 games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Since the start of the 2020-2021 NBA season, Boston has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS immediately following 3 straight losses. Putting those results into perspective, the Celtics have lost 4 games in a row just once over the previous 3 seasons. Furthermore, since 11/28/2021, Boston is an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS on the road in contests like today in which they scored 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games. Boston had an average point-spread of -1.1 in those 6 contests and won by an average of 14.8 points per game. Miami is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this season immediately following 2 straight wins in which they allowed 105 points or fewer. That includes 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that identical situation. Give me the Boston Celtics plus the small number. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Lakers -5.5 (5*) The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in these Playoffs, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 on the road. The Lakers will be playing with plenty of desperation and urgency at home tonight after losing the first 2 games of this Western Conference Final at Denver. It’s worth noting, the Lakers are 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with a substantial average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, dating back to the regular season, the Lakers will enter today on a 9-game home win streak. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any home favorite of 4.5 to 8.5-points that’s down 2-0 in the series, and they’re facing an opponent that’s anywhere from a #1 through #4 seed, resulted in those home favorites withing that specific point-spread parameter going 22-5 ATS (81.5%). If those home teams were facing a #1 seed, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS during that exact time span, and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -8.5 (5*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 123-116 home loss to Miami in game they closed as a 8.5-point favorite. Recent NBA Playoff betting history shows that teams like Boston coming off a Game 1 loss as a sizable home favorite doing very well as a similar sized chalk in Game 2. Additionally, the Celtics are an extremely profitable 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points that’s coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in which they scored 105 points or more, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since the 2019 NBA Postseason. The average line for those home favorites was -6.8 and they won by an enormous 23.5 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers +5.5 (5*) The Lakers have been terrific in recent times while going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss. As a matter of fact, they’re 4-0 SU&ATS during these 2023 NBA Postseason following a loss and won by a massive 25.3 points per game. Furthermore, the Lakers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog of 8.5 or less following a loss with an average victory margin of 10.1 points per game. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (10*) The Celtics are coming off a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force these deciding 7th game. NBA Playoffs Game 7 betting history over the past 20 years indicates teams like Boston in this exact situation haven’t failed to cover on each occasion. NBA Game 7 home favorites of 4.5 or greater like Boston that are coming off a Game 6 road win by 6-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a massive average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-13-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Rangers (Gray) @ A’s (Kaprielian) 4:07 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (-103) (10*) Oakland is 1-15 during day games this season and were outscored by an enormous 4.6 runs per game. The A’s are also an abysmal 4-16 at home and being outscored by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Conversely, Texas is 9-4 during the day this season with a huge +3.6 run per game differential and averaging a substantial 8.1 runs scored per game. The Rangers lost at Oakland last night. But they can take comfort in knowing the A’s are a miserable 1-7 in 2023 immediately following a win and that includes 0-3 at home. Texas’ Jon Gray has been sharp in 4 road starts with a shiny 3.05 ERA/1.02 WHIP. Give me the Texas Rangers on the run-line. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*) Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game. Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*) Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game. NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*) The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Nuggets -5.5 (5*) Phoenix has gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 as an away underdog. The average line in those 7 contests was 4.7 and they lost by 10.9 points per game. Phoenix is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 13.7 points per game. Denver is 39-7 SU and 28-17-1 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by 10.2 points per game. That includes 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with an average victory margin of 13.8 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 7:30 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*) The Celtics are coming off a heartbreaking 116-115 loss to Philadelphia in Game 4. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch and especially so of late. Boston is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 19.7 points per game. Conversely, Philadelphia has gone 0-4 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a home win and lost by 14.0 points per game. I’m predicting the Celtics will make a huge statement tonight on their home floor. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Warriors +3.0 (5*) Golden State is coming off an embarrassing 127-100 road loss in Game 3. However, the Warriors are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 during these playoffs following a loss and won by 21.3 points per game. Since the 2017 postseason, Golden State is 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 1.5 or greater following a playoff loss and won by 11.7 points per game. Considering their vast playoff experiences and successes, I expect Golden State to respond in a big way this evening. NBA Playoffs Game 4 away pick or underdog of 8.0 or less that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0 points or more, resulted in those teams going 6-0 SU&ATS since the 2005 NBA Postseason. Those teams’ average point-spread was +4.2 and they won by an average of 13.3 points per game. Give me Golden State plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (5*) Denver is coming off a disappointing Game 3 loss at Phoenix but still holds a 2-1 series lead. Any NBA Playoffs team that’s ahead in a series like Denver versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a season win percentage of .450 to .550 has gone 46-12 (79.35) since the 2019 postseason, and they outscored those opponents by an average of 9.7 points per contest. The SU results take on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 3:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: 76ers +2.5 (5*) After winning Game 1 in Boston, the 76ers have lost the last 2 in this series to fall behind 2-1. The 76ers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season and they outscored those opponents by 11.2 points per game. Philadelphia lost Game 3 at home 114-102. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 8-0 SU immediately following a home SU loss by 11-points or more and they outscored those opponents by 9.9 points per game. The 76ers certainly don’t want to return to Boston down 3-1 in the series. So, desperation and urgency with a quality team like Philadelphia will be a key component in us covering this contest. Any NBA Playoffs Game 4 home underdog of 4.5 or less like Philadelphia that down 2-1 in the series and is coming off losses in the last 2 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-1 SU&ATS since 2008. Furthermore, if those home underdogs lost the previous game by 15 points or fewer, they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.8 points per game. Play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3.5 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -3.5 (5*) Golden State’s inexplicable struggles on the road (13-32 SU/15-30-2 ATS) this season have been well documented. They went 0-2 SU&ATS in their 2 road games versus the Lakers and were held to a poor 38.8% shooting from the floor. The oddsmakers were undeterred by the Warriors 127-100 blowout home win in Game 2 which evened the series at 1-1. The Lakers opened as a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 3 but they’ve since moved to -3.5. The Lakers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home during this 2023 postseason and won by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Lakers are also 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | 86-105 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Miami 3:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Knicks +4.0 (5*) The Miami Heat’s injury list is starting to resemble a mash unit. This is a spot where those key missing pieces or even playing injured players finally begins to catch up with them. The Heat’s Game 2 loss at New York halted a 4-game win streak. Miami has gone a dismal 3-11 SU this season after winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Knicks are coming off a 6-point home win in Game 2 to even this series up at 1-1. During the first 2 games of the series, New York had a combined +25 rebounding advantage. The Knicks defense has been terrific during the playoffs while allowing just 97.8 points per game. New York has gone a more than respectable 26-18 SU and 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) on the road this season. Furthermore, the Knicks are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an away underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a SU win by 6-points or more. Lastly, New York 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a conference underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a home SU win. Their average point-spread in those 7 contests was +3.4 and they won by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Warriors 9:00 ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Warriors -6.0 (5*) Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Lakers 117-112 in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. However, Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home immediately following a SU loss. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 1.5 to 9.0 (Golden State) has gone 26-2 ATS (92.9%) since 2021. That also includes 18-0 SU&ATS the last 18 times this exact situation has come up. The average line for the favorites in those 18 contests was -6.4 and they outscored the underdogs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Give me Golden State minus points. |
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05-04-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Maple Leafs 7:10 PM ET Game# 53-54 Play On: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140) (5*) Toronto is coming off a 4-2 home loss to Florida in Game 1 of this series. However, the Maple Leafs are 10-0 in their last 10 conference home games following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 3.3 goals per game. The Leafs are also 6-0 this season at home following a loss by 2 goals or more and won by 2.7 goals per game. Additionally, Toronto is on winning runs 16-1 in their last 17 and 8-0 during its previous 8 overall following a loss. Give me Toronto on the puck-line. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7.5 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
76ers @ Celtics 8:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Celtics -7.5 (5*) I’m looking for this to be a monumental bounce back spot for Boston after losing Game 1 at home 119-115. The Celtics lost that contest despite shooting 58% from the field and being +10 on the boards. Nonetheless, Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home teams like Boston are 35-5 SU (.875) and 33-7 ATS (83%). If those home teams were a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, then they improved to 22-4 ATS (85%) during that identical span of time. Give me the Celtics minus the points. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -4 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Suns @ Nuggets 10:05 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Nuggets -4.0 (5*) Denver is coming off a convincing 125-107 home win over Phoenix in Game 1 and they easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite. That now makes the Nuggets 38-7 SU and 24-17-1 ATS at home this season. Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs began, any NBA postseason favorite of -3.5 to 9.0 in Game 2 of a series like Denver, resulted in those favorites going an extremely profitable 20-2 ATS (90.9%). The average line during those 22 contests was -6.3 and the favorite outscored the underdogs by 16.4 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-30-23 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Royals (Singer) @ Twins (Gray) 2:10 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Twins -1.5 (+102) (5*) For starters, the Kansas City Royals are an abysmal 6-21 this season and 18 of their 21 losses came by 2 runs or more. Kansas City is also 0-9 in their last 9 as a run-line underdog and when the total was between 7.0 and 8.5. Since 2016, Sonny Gray is a perfect 8-0 in his team starts versus Kansas City and the Royals were outscored by 4.5 runs per game and only averaged 1.3 runs scored per outing. Gray is 3-0 during his home team starts this season and with a brilliant 0.47 ERA and averaged 6.3 innings pitched per outing. The Twins bullpen headed into the weekend’s action with a stellar 2.73 ERA/1.14 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Twins are a very profitable 12-5 this season as a run-line favorite. Give me the Minnesota Twins as a run-line favorite. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami @ New York 1:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: New York -4.0 (5*) The #8 seed Miami Heat shocked the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games to advance. Despite losing 2 key players in that series to injuries in Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, Miami was able to prevail mostly due in part to Jimmy Butler’s super-human effort in the series which saw him average 37.6 points per game, and the defensive ineptitude displayed by Milwaukee who allowed the Heat to average 124.0 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 51.9%. Miami won’t find it quite as easy on the offensive end versus a New York team which held Cleveland to 97 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games during their East Conference Quarterfinal series win. As a matter of fact, the Knicks were 2-0 at home versus Miami this season and held the Heat to a mere 98.0 points per game. Give me New York minus points. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Lakers 10:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Lakers -4.5 (5*) Memphis is coming off an impressive 116-99 home win in Game 5 to stay alive and cut their series deficit to 3-2. However, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 12.4 points per game. Conversely, the Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following a loss in their previous contest. Put that Lakers run of resiliency into perspective, they’ve only lost 2 straight games just once since 2/9/2022 (78-days). Counting the postseason, the Lakers are 4-0 SU&ATS at home versus Memphis during this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 42% or worse shooting in all 4 of those home wins and that includes 39% or less in each of the previous 3 meetings. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Hawks 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Boston is 4-0 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 5.0 or greater following a home loss in their previous game and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. The current total on this contest is 231.0, and Boston is 5-0 SU&ATS this season during away games that have a total of 230.0 or greater and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season following a win. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, round 1 Game 6 away favorites like Boston have gone an extremely profitable 13-1 SU&ATS. Furthermore, if those away favorites were coming off a SU loss in Game 5, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS with a decisive average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Additionally, teams like Boston that are playing as an away favorite of 2.0 to 8.0-points in Game 6 of a playoffs series that they lead 3-2, and they’re coming off a Game 5 home favorite SU loss, resulted in those Game 6 away favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.8 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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04-27-23 | Rays -1.5 v. White Sox | 14-5 | Win | 114 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Rays (McClanahan) @ White Sox (Cease) 7:10 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rays -1.5 (+114) (5*) Something must give in this matchup as both teams are coming off shutout losses in each of their previous 2 games. However, the White Sox have lost 7 consecutive games in all and they’re also 2-12 in their previous 14 games. The White Sox are a poor 3-6 at home thus far and their bullpen had a terrible staff 7.60 ERA/1.91 WHIP in those games. The White Sox are an abysmal 2-14 this season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater. Despite those shutout losses to Houston in their last 2 games, Tampa Bay is still riding high with a 20-5 season record, and they’ve hit 48 home runs while doing so. Tampa Bay is currently a money line favorite of -155. The Rays have gone an extremely profitable 17-2 this season as a money line favorite of -150 or greater and they outscored their 19 opponents by a substantial 4.0 runs per game.The Rays Sean McClanahan is 5-0 in his team starts this season with a 1.86 ERA. The Rays bullpen has an outstanding staff 1.32 ERA/0.93 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Conversely, the White Sox Dylan Cease has a shaky 1.53 WHIP over his last 3 starts while walking 10 in just 11.0 innings pitched. Give me the Tampa Bay Rays on the run-line. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:30 ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Bucks -11.5 (5*) We have a double-digit postseason favorite that’s down 3-1 in a playoff series. This point-spread tells me everything I need to know. This is the game where Miami truly misses the loss of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their absences in the previous game weren’t noticeable because the Heat won and Jimmy Butler turned in a playoff performance for the ages with a 58-point game. Although Butler will continue to carry the load offensively, the probability of him even coming close to his 58-point scoring night are extremely low. Nobody else in the Heat lineup at this present time has shown any indication they can be a consistent offensive contributor to help take off some of the burden currently bestowed upon “Jimmy Buckets”. I’m looking for the Bucks defensive intensity to be at a high-level tonight after going through lapses over the past 2 weeks. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Lakers +4.5 (5*) For starters, the Lakers lost their last contest on the road in Game 2 at Memphis. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 away after losing the last time they played a road game. The lakers won both games at home in this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU this season as an away underdog of 9.0 or less immediately following a home win. The average point-spread in those 6 contests was 6.5 and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Lakers have played superb defense in their 5 postseason games while holding opponents 105.8 points per contest and 42.0% shooting from the field. The average point total allowed would be better than it already was if not for 2 of those 5 games requiring overtime. Despite Memphis being the Western Conference #2 seed and the Lakers #7, the lower seeded team is the better team at this juncture of the season. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -9.5 (5*) Minnesota staved off elimination with a 114-108 home overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Timberwolves blew a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter but survived to play another day. However, playing in Denver this season has been nothing short of a hornet’s nest for Minnesota. The Nuggets have won all 4 meetings at home versus Minnesota this season and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During those 4 contests, Denver scored 124.7 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.8% from the field. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 conference home games following a loss and won by 16.7 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Denver is an outstanding 36-7 SU (.837) and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) at home this season. Any #1 seed home favorite of 9.0 or greater like Denver who are playing in Game 5 of a NBA Playoff series, and they’re coming off an away favorite SU loss in Game 4. resulted in them going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA postseason. Those favorites won by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 3:30 ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Warriors -7.5 (5*) Golden State is coming off a 114-97 home win over Sacramento to take a 2-1 series lead. Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Golden State is a perfect 7-0 SU at home versus Sacramento with an average victory margin of 12.5 points per game. Golden State is 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of -9.5 or less, and if their opponent was coming off a SU loss, they were 4-0 SU&ATS during that time frame. Sacramento scored less than 100 points for just the 5th time this season in their Game 3 loss. Furthermore, the Kings are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and were beaten by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus the points. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*) Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*) Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least. Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*) With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series. Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*) Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest. Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*) The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Nets @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: 76ers -10.0 (5*) Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn this season by going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against them and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Additionally, during those 5 wins Philadelphia shot a red-hot 44.6% from beyond the 3-points and held the Nets to 105 or fewer points during the last 3 of those meetings. Any NBA favorite like Philadelphia that’s leading in a playoff series and is facing an opponent line Brooklyn who has a season win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those playoff favorites going 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 2019. The average line in those 34 contests was 7.6 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by a decisive margin of 15.1 points per game. Give me the 76ers minus the points. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers +8 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Clippers +8.0 (5*) Since the 2018-2019 season, NBA away teams like the Clippers with a winning record versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a win percentage of .510 to .600 and they’ve played 3 games or fewer throughout the last 10 days, resulted in those teams going 26-10 SU (72.2%). The SU results take on added significance since it supports the sizable underdog in this matchup. Give me the Clippers plus the points. |
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04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Knicks +5.5 (5*) The Knicks have been a very good road team this season by going 24-17 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in those contests. Furthermore, New York has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a conference away underdog. The Knicks have also gone a noteworthy 11-2 SU this season when playing in their 6th game or fewer over the last 14 days like they’ll be doing today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Knicks won this game outright. However, I’m not going to get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Boston 3:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Boston -9.0 (5*) Boston was a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta during regular season action and won by an average of 13.3 points per game. During those 3 wins, Boston averaged 126.7 points scored per game, shot 52.2% from the field, and made 46.5% of its 3-point attempts. As a matter of fact, Boston made 20 or more 3-point shots in all 3 of those games. The Celtics are #2 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Atlanta is #20 defensively. Since game 42 of this season, Boston has gone 13-1 ATS versus teams like Atlanta who allow opponents to shoot 48% or better on the year, and with the Celtics outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Atlanta has allowed 120 points or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Boston has scored 120 points or more in 7 of its last 10. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s overtime loss at the Lakers in a game they squandered a double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Since 4/10/2022, Minnesota has gone 0-7 SU&ATS at home when playing on exactly 2 days rest. Furthermore, the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been a great home favorite this season while 8-17 ATS and 12-13 SU in that role. That also includes 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU during its last 7 as a home chalk. Oklahoma City is coming off Wednesday’s 123-118 win at New Orleans and did so as a 5.5-point underdog. The Thunder have now gone 48-25 ATS (65.8%) as an away underdog since the start of last season and that includes 21-11 ATS this year. Give me the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
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04-13-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Tigers (Turnbull) @ Blue Jays (Bassitt) 7:07 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Toronto -1.5 (-115) (5*) Detroit enters today on a 6-game losing streak and is 2-9 on the season. The Tigers have been anemic offensively while having scored 3 runs or fewer in 8 of 11 games. Their bullpen picked up right where it has left off the past couple seasons and is nothing short of disastrous. Spencer Turnbull will be on the mound for Detroit and he’s posted a massive 13.50 ERA/2.25 WHIP in 2 starts. After a terrible season debut, Chris Bassitt turned in a quality start for Toronto in his last outing. Since 2021, Bassitt has gone an extremely profitable 25-4 in his team starts versus opponents with a losing record. The Toronto bullpen has been very good during the first 2 weeks of the season. The Blue Jays have been red-hot of late after winning 7 of their last 8. Give me the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Oklahoma City has gone 1-2 SU versus New Orleans this season. However, both losses came by exactly 3 points. Since the 2021-2022 season began, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in their games at New Orleans. New Orleans is 7-15 ATS this season versus opponents like Oklahoma City that average 116.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, the Thunder have gone 47-25 (65.3%) ATS as a road underdog. OKC is coming off a 115-100 win over Memphis in their regular season finale. The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS (75%) this season following a win by 10 points or more in their previous contest, and they won 11 of those 20 games straight up. Give me Oklahoma City as an underdog. |
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04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Royals (Keller) @ Rangers (Eovaldi) 8:05 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (+128) (5*) Kansas City is 3-9 and averaging a paltry 2.9 runs scored per game. Since 2021, the Royals are a dismal 1-7 at Texas. Brad Keller has 2 starts versus Texas since 2020 and had a horrible 14.14 ERA/3.00 WHIP during those outings. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Kansas City bullpen that has compiled a terrible 7.98 ERA/1.77 WHIP on the road. Texas is coming off last night’s 8-5 home win over Kansas City. The Rangers have now scored 8 runs or more in 5 of 11 games this season. Texas 6-2 at home thus far in 2023 while averaging 6.9 runs scored per game and hit 13 home runs while doing so. The Rangers bullpen has been lights-out at home with a brilliant staff 1.42 ERA/0.88 WHIP. Give me the Rangers as a run-line favorite. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +6.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Chicago +6.5 (5*) The Bulls finished the regular season strong by going 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS during their last 17 games. Chicago has also gone a very profitable 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 11 away games. Chicago has also shot 51.1% or better in 7 of its last 10 games. Give me Chicago as an underdog. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5.5 v. Heat | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 7:10 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Hawks +5.5 (5*) Atlanta failed to cover their last 2 regular season games. However, the Hawks are an extremely profitable 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games immediately following 2 consecutive ATS losses and averaged outscoring those opponents by 10.5 points per contest. Miami is coming off a 123-100 win over Orlando and they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Heat have gone 0-9 ATS and 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as a favorite of 2.5 or more following an ATS cover in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Give me the Hawks plus the points. |
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04-05-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Royals | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Manoah) @ Royals (Greinke) 7:40 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) (5*) Since 2021, Zack Greinke has made 3 starts versus Toronto and posted an uninspiring 4.24 ERA/1.47 WHIP. The Royals are 1-4 to start the season and are averaging a paltry 2.8 runs per game. Their bullpen has been shaky thus far which is evidenced by a staff 5.03 ERA/1.63 WHIP. Alek Manoah is coming off a terrible start in the Blue Jays season opener at St. Louis, but he’s a terrific young pitcher regardless. Manoah has made 3 career starts versus Kansas City with all taking place since 2021 and compiled an excellent 0.45 ERA in 20.0 innings pitched. The Blue Jays bullpen has been solid to start the season with a staff 2.89 ERA. Give me the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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04-04-23 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Golden State 10:10 ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Oklahoma City +8.5 (5*) Golden State has been very good at home this season and will be facing a Thunder teams which has lost 5 of its last 7 games. However, OKC has gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS this season after a stretch in which they lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has gone an extremely profitable 47-24-1 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 20-10-1 ATS in that role this season. Give me Oklahoma City plus the points. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 121-103 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) Despite being 7.0 games ahead of the New Orleans in the standings and winning 15 of its last 21 games, Sacramento comes up as an underdog in tonight’s matchup. On the other hand, New Orleans is a red-hot 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. This is also a Pelicans team which has gone 25-13 SU at home. Additionally, New Orleans has gone 14-2 ATS this season when facing an opponent like Sacramento who has a 48.0% or greater field goal percentage defense and outscored them by 13.2 points per contest. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans have allowed 96 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 outing and just 100.3 points per game during that stretch. They may be catching the Kings at the right moment as they just recently clinched a playoff berth which ended a NBA longest postseason drought. There’s a high probability of a Sacramento flat spot tonight. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*) I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less. Give me Miami plus the points. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley +3 v. UAB | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State vs. UAB 9:30 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: Utah Valley State +3.0 (5*) Despite Conference USA having 2 teams (UAB, North Texas) playing in the NIT Semifinals, and another (FAU) making it to the NCAA Tournament Final 4, Utah Valley State strength of schedule for the season grades out tougher than that faced by UAB. UVSU has recorded NIT wins at New Mexico (22-12), at Colorado (18-17), and Cincinnati (23-12) to reach this point. The Wolverines have won non-conference road games this season over Oregon (21-15) and BYU (19-15) while also losing in overtime at Wake Forest (19-14). Furthermore, UVSU is #30 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. UAB has played the 301st toughest non-conference schedule. The Blazers 3 NIT wins have come over Southern Miss, Morehead State, and Vanderbilt. Not quite as strong of opponents that Utah Valley State has faced in the NIT thus far. Additionally, UAB has gone just 2-4 versus currently alive CUSA postseason teams North Texas and FAU. Give me Utah Valley State plus the points. |
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03-27-23 | Wolves +4.5 v. Kings | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Sacramento 9:40 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 99-96 win at Golden State and has now been victorious in 3 straight games. The Timberwolves are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 when playing with no rest and coming off a win. They were an underdog in all 4 of those contests while outscoring those favorites by 7.3 points per game. Sacramento is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite when facing an opponent playing with no rest and coming off a win. The Kings average point-spread in those contests was -3.5 and they were outscored by 8.8 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*) San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game. Give me San Diego State. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Kansas State | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
FAU vs. Kansas State 6:09 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: FAU +2.0 (5*) Kansas State is coming off a thrilling 98-93 overtime win versus Michigan State in Sweet 16 action in what was arguably the best game of the NCAA Tournament to date. Now the 15th ranked Wildcats are just a 2.0-point favorite over an opponent from Conference USA. That point-spread jumped right off the page at me. FAU has been very good defensively in their 3 NCAA Tournament wins while allowing only 63.3 points per game and opponents shot just a combined 38.0% from the field. Although Kansas State has faced the far more difficult schedule compared to FAU, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the Owls are still 34-3 this season which includes 33-2 in their last 35 games. Play on FAU plus the points. |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston -7.5 | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami vs. Houston 7:15 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Houston -7.5 (5*) I consider this to be a heavy number. What I mean by that is Houston seems to be a much bigger favorite than I anticipated against a very good Miami team who won the ACC regular season title. The oddsmakers are making it extremely alluring to take the underdog in this spot. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Taking Miami plus the generous number is a sucker bet in my opinion. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Alabama | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State vs. Alabama 6:30 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: San Diego State +7.5 (5*) Alabama very well might win it all. However, this is a dangerous game for them against a long athletic team like San Diego State who’s capable of beating any team in the country right now. Regardless, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset and graciously take the sizable number being given. Give me San Diego State plus the points. |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State @ Cincinnati 9:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Utah Valley State (Pick) (5*) This line jumped right off the screen at me. We have a mid-major conference team like Utah Valley State as a pick against a power conference school like Cincinnati, which is coming off impressive wins in the first 2 rounds of the NIT. The first question I asked myself is, why. Then after delving into both teams’ resumes, I was able to come up with more than satisfactory answers. At this point of the season, you would think Cincinnati would have faced a far tougher schedule than Utah Valley State. Although the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, there’s not the sizable disparity I would have thought. As a matter of fact, Utah Valley State has quality non-conference road wins this season at Colorado, New Mexico, BYU, and Oregon. They also fell in overtime at Wake Forest, who had a winning season. UVSU has shot 50% or better in 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also held opponents to 40% or worse shooting during 8 of its previous 10 games. Give me Utah Valley State. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4 | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
TCU vs. Gonzaga 9:40 PM ET Game# 851-852 Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (5*) Granted TCU comes from the Big 12 which has been widely recognized as the best conference in college basketball this season. However, the Horned Frogs started the season 13-1 and have gone an uninspiring 9-11 since. Furthermore, TCU has gone 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 immediately following a win which speaks to their inconsistent play during the season’s 2nd half. Yes, Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference that from top to bottom is much inferior to the Big 12. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs posted non-conference wins this season over NCAA Tournament teams Kent State, Kentucky, #13 Xavier, #1 Alabama, and Michigan State. As a matter of fact, 4 of those 5 opponents are in the Round of 32. The Zags also posted a pair of wins conference rival #19 St. Mary’s. They also faced #5 Texas, #11 Baylor, and #3 Purdue. So, they’re not going to be phased in the least going up against #22 TCU. Gonzaga has shot an extremely impressive 48% or better in each of their previous 14 games and 50% or better during 13 of its previous 16 contests. Give me Gonzaga minus the points. |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule. Give me FAU minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*) These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota. Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*) I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category. Give me Northwestern plus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Arkansas v. Kansas -3.5 | 72-71 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
Arkansas vs. Kansas 5:15 PM ET Game# 809-810 Play On: Kansas -3.5 (5*) Despite Thursday’s NCAA Tournament 73-63 win over Illinois, Arkansas has gone an uninspiring 4-6 throughout its last 10 games. The Razorbacks are a very good defensive teams but they have some shortcomings offensively. This Kansas team is jelling at the most opportune time of the season. They’ve gone 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS during their previous 12 games. Their only 2 losses during that stretch came versus #5 Texas. As a matter of fact, if you take away those 2 versus Texas than Kansas has shot 50.9% or better in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Jayhawks are extremely balanced while ranking #25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #7 defensively. Give me Kansas minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Furman v. San Diego State -5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Furman vs. San Diego State 12:10 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (5*) Furman has averaged 10 makes per game from 3-point territory this season. However, since Game 16, San Diego State is 9-0 SU&ATS versus opponents that average 8 or more made 3-point shots per games and won by an average of 9.7 points per contest. San Diego State is more athletic, bigger, and better defensively than Furman. The Aztecs have allowed a mere 54.8 points scored per game and held opponents to a cumulative 35.3% shooting throughout their previous 5 games. The Aztecs are #9 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Furman is #178 in that same category while facing a much softer schedule than San Diego State has faced. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |