Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU -17 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 9:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: SMU -17.0 SMU has gone 4-0 SU&ATS during the previous 4 seasons versus North Texas and won by an average substantial margin of 28.3 points per game. The Mustangs are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 contests with an average victory margin of 39.3 points per outing and outgained those opponents by an enormous 339.4 yards per game. Furthermore, SMU is 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and won by a massive average margin of 42.7 points per game. SMU will be facing a 3-6 North Texas team which allows an average of 36.7 points and 469.0 yards per game. Any college football home favorite of between 10.0 and 31.5 like SMU with a win percentage of .777 or better, and they’re coming off 3 wins in a row in which they scored 36 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent like TCU with a win percentage of .200 or better that’s coming off 2 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2002 and they won by an average of 32.8 points per contest. Give me SMU minus points. |
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11-10-23 | Yale +12.5 v. Gonzaga | 71-86 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Yale @ Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET Game# 859-860 Play On: Yale +12.5 This line and the ensuing line movement caught my attention in a big way. We have the college basketball powerhouse #11 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs as just a 12.5-point home favorite versus an Ivy League team. Furthermore, the number opened at 14.5 and was bet down to as low as 12.0 with some razor-sharp money. This will be the season opener while Yale already has a game under the belt in which they came away with a 102-53 win over Vassar who’s a division 2 school Vassar and they shot a sizzling hot 63% in that contest. Granted they’ll be stepping way up in class tonight. However, Yale returns 4 starters from last season’s 21-9 team that lost to Vanderbilt in the NIT. This is also a Yale program which has gone a combined 85-36 over their past 4 seasons under current head coach James Jones and reached the NCAA Tournament twice. Give me Yale plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | Tennessee v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 80-70 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET Game# 861-862 Play On: Wisconsin +2.5 Tennessee may be the most talented and athletic team in this matchup. However, the Badgers have traditionally had a strong home court advantage and return all 5 starters from last year’s 20-15 team which reached the NIT Semifinal. That type of experience coupled with a consistent winning culture will pay dividends against the #8 ranked Volunteers. Give me Wisconsin plus points. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Bears -3.0 The Bears will stick to their offensive strength and that’s running the ball. Although the Bears are a poor 1-3 at home this season, they’ve averaged 157 yards rushing per contest and 4.7 yards per attempt. Conversely, Carolina is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road while losing by an average of 15.8 points per game and they surrendered 149 yards rushing per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | 124-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Pacers 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Pacers +3.0 Milwaukee is 5-2 to start the season. However, 4 of those 5 wins have come by 5 points or fewer and with the line exception being a 122-114 home victory over Miami. As a matter of fact, despite their 5-2 record, the Bucks are a -2.3 points per game differential and a -7.1 rebound per game differential. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests they’re an abysmal -12.3 rebound per game differential. The Bucks offense has been as explosive as it’s been in recent years. However, their play at the defensive end of the floor has been terrible. Indiana will be playing the finale of a 5-game homestand today. The Pacers have been victorious in their last 2 with blowout wins over Utah 134-118 and San Antonio 152-111. The Pacers are 5-3 and 0.5 games behind Milwaukee in the standings, yet they have a superior point per game differential of +4.8 compared to the Bucks -2.3. Any NBA home team like Indiana that’s coming off 2 or more home wins in a row, versus an opponent like Milwaukee that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU since the 2019-2020 season. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the underdog in this spot. Give me the +Pacers plus points. |
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11-08-23 | Jackson State +1.5 v. San Diego | 61-87 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Jackson State @ San Diego 10:00 PM ET Game# 306541-306542 Play On: Jackson State +1.5 This line jumped right off the screen last night and even more this morning. San Diego opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and that line has fallen to 1.5 as of this writing. San Diego plays in the WCC with the likes of nationally ranked Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. They’re led by veteran head coach Steve Lavin who’s had arguably more success as a television personality than a college basketball head coach. San Diego was less than impressive in their 68-64 home win on Monday over Sonoma State that plays at the Division II level. Jackson State returns all 5 starters from a team that began last season 1-12 and then finished 13-7 over their last 20 games. That poor start can be attributed to a an extremely tough non-conference schedule in which they managed to pull at upset as a 12.5 underdog at SMU. They also were extremely competitive in road losses to Michigan by 10, Mississippi State by 10, and Tulsa by 6. Despite that poor start to last season they were still 8-5 ATS during those contests. The opened this season on Monday with a 94-77 road loss to a very good Memphis team in which they covered as a 21.5-point underdog. Give me Jackson State. |
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11-08-23 | Raptors +4.5 v. Mavs | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Mavericks 8:40 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Toronto +4.5 Despite being 6-1 to starts this season which includes 3-0 at home, Dallas finds itself as just a 4.5-point favorite versus a 3-4 Toronto team. Furthermore, this line opened at 6.0 and has come down to 4.5 even with most individual bets and money going the way of Dallas. This will only the 3rd game in 7 days for Toronto. Conversely, Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Mavericks are a very talented team, but their defensive play leaves much to be desired and should rear its ugly head even more so when playing against an opponent with a clear advantage in terms of rest. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio @ Buffalo 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Buffalo +7.5 Buffalo went an abysmal 0-4 in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, since conference action began, they are a respectable 3-2 while only allowing 16.8 points and 285.8 yards per game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers. Ohio is 6-3 overall but just 3-2 in MAC action. The Bobcats have lost 2 of their last 3 and failed to cover on each occasion. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chargers -3.0 This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me and when that occurs, I predominately go against what appears to be the obvious choice. The Chargers are 3-4 and the Jets 4-3. New York has won 3 consecutive games. However, it’s the Chargers who are better than a field goal road favorite versus an opponent with a better record. The Chargers are coming off a 30-13 home win over Chicago in which they covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Any NFL away favorite of 3.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent with a .400 or better win percentage, resulted in those away favorites like the Chargers going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 1984. Give me the Chargers minus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-23 | Rams +3 v. Packers | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Rams +3.0 I don’t care if it’s Mathew Stafford or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Rams. I’m fading the Packers either way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is looking more and more like a genuine first round bust. The Packers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 contests. Furthermore, their previous 3 losses came versus Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota, none of which currently possess a winning record. The Rams are coming off back-to-back losses versus Pittsburgh and Dallas who have a combined 10-5 record. Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 or less like the Rams that’s coming off a SU loss who has a win percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay who’s playing after Game 7 and has lost 4 or more games in a row with the last defeat coming by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Those underdogs won all 15 of those contests SU and by an average of 8.5 points per game. Give me the Rams plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bucs +3 v. Texans | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Tampa Bay +3.0 Despite their uninspiring 3-4 record which includes a current 3-game losing streak, Tampa Bay is still very much a contender in a wide open NFC South race. The Bucs have been much better on the road than at home this season while going 2-1 SU&3-0 ATS during those contests. Houston is coming off a 15-13 road loss to then winless Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-4. Any NFL away underdog of 4.0 or less like Tampa Bay that has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a SU loss and they possess a win percentage of .400-.490, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 2012. The away underdogs also won 14 of those 16 contests straight up. Give me Tampa Bay plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders +3 v. Patriots | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Patriots 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +3.0 New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in non-division contests this season while losing by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Patriots are also a poor 1-3 SU&ATS at home and the only time they were a favorite in those 4 contests they failed miserable during a 34-0 blowout loss to New Orleans. New England has been anemic offensively in their dismal 2-6 start to the season while averaging a mere 14.8 points scored per game and 284.8 yards gained per contest. Washington is coming off a disheartening 38-31 home loss to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and pushed as a 7.0-point underdog. They outgained the Eagles in that contest by a wide margin of 472-374 and also squandered an early 14-3 lead. However, Washington is a more than respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Commanders are also a profitable 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Give me the Commanders plus points. |
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11-04-23 | LSU +3.5 v. Alabama | 28-42 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU @ Alabama 7:45 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: LSU +3.5 Alabama has won 6 straight games since being upset at home by Texas. Nonetheless, 2 of their last 3 wins came by 6 or less and the lone exception was a 34-20 win over Tennessee in which they trailed 20-7 at halftime. The Crimson Tide has scored 26 points or fewer in 5 of the last 7 games. That can be problematic when considering they’ll be facing a dynamic and explosive LSU offense that averages 47.4 points scored and 553.1 yards game per game. That includes 44.2 points scored and 554.6 yards gained per game while going 4-1 in SEC contests. Alabama hasn’t bee this low a home favorite since 9/22/2007 when they were -3.0 versus Georgia and lost 26-23. The current line speaks volumes to me, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take Alabama as a small home favorite. I’m not taking the bait. Give me LSU plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
USC @ Washington 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: USC +3.0 USC barely escaped with a 50-49 win over California last Saturday. The trojans national championship aspirations ended after losing back-to-back game to Notre Dame and Utah. The Trojan offense led by star quarterback Caleb Williams is championship caliber, but their defense has been an enigma and a huge liability. However, USC would like nothing better than to hand Washington their first loss of the season and put a dent into their College Football Playoff hopes. They’ll certainly be motivated since they’re an underdog at home. The undefeated Huskies and star quarterback Michael Pennix are very good. However, they haven’t exactly been blowing away the competition of late. As a matter of fact, their last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or fewer. That includes the last 2 versus Arizona State (2-6) and Stanford (2-6). Give me USC plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas +3 v. Iowa State | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Kansas +3.0 Everyone and their Uncle are banking on the fact that Kansas (6-2/.750) is going to in for an emotional letdown after upsetting undefeated Oklahoma at home last Saturday. On most occasions I would agree with that logic, but not in this instance. Yes, Iowa State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Nonetheless, those victories came over TCU, Cincinnati (2-6), and Baylor (2-5). This is also an Iowa State team that lost to the Ohio Bobcats earlier this season and was blown out by 50-20 against Oklahoma. Additionally, since 2021, Iowa State has gone 1-6 SU when facing fellow Big 12 Conference teams with a win percentage of .750 or better. Give me Kansas plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Jacksonville State +15.5 v. South Carolina | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 331-332 Play On: Jacksonville State +15.5 This will be the largest crowd that Jacksonville State will play in front of all year. The Jaguars enter this matchup versus a team from the mighty SEC with a stellar 7-2 record and this game has far greater meaning to them as opposed to South Carolina. Afterall, the Gamecocks are taking a break from their hear of their SEC schedule to face an opponent who’s a first year FBS participant. Additionally, it’s not like the Gamecocks (2-6) carry a lot of momentum with them heading into this contest considering they’re currently on a 4-game losing streak. It’s also worth noting, Jacksonville State is at a +9 turnover differential this season while South Carolina is -6. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Kansas State +3.5 Considering Texas is without their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, and how both teams have performed during recent game, I strongly believe the underdog is the better team at this juncture. To be clear, I didn’t say the more talented squad, but the better team. Kansas State has lost the last 6 versus Texas, but 5 of those 6 contests were decided by 7 points or fewer. Since Quinn Ewers went down with an injury, the Texas offense has put up pedestrian numbers of 362 and 354 total yards in those 2 games which is well below their season average of 454.4. Since being upset at Oklahoma State, #25 Kansas State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents (Houston, Texas Tech, TCU) by a cumulative score of 120-24. Give me Kansas State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Arkansas v. Florida -3 | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Florida -3.0 The public has hammered the underdog Razorbacks in this contest to the point this line went from 5.5 to 3.5 over the last 24 hours. Granted. Arkansas has been a tough luck team this season when considering that 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Nonetheless, all 6 of those defeats have come over their previous 6 games. The Razorbacks have found ways to lose games they deserved to win on a couple of occasions. When teams are stuck in that mode for a prolonged period, they become mentally fragile. Furthermore, the Razorbacks offense has been anemic over their last 4 contests while averaging a mere 16.5 points scored and 227.5 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Florida Gators team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 23.5 points per game and includes an upset win over #19 Tennessee. I’ll be in the minority with this pick, but that’s perfectly fine with me. Give me Florida minus points. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Boston College +3.0 Syracuse has been consistent with their recent trend under current head coach Dino Babers on getting off to fast starts while facing a soft schedule, and then tailing off once getting into the heart of ACC action. The Orange began the season 4-0 while facing opponents the likes of Colgate (2-5), Western Michigan (3-6), Purdue (2-6), and Army (2-6). Since that time, they’ve gone 0-4 SU&ATS while being outscored by 29.0 points and outgained by 298.8 yards per game. The low point may have come in last week’s 38-10 loss against an average at best Virginia Tech team where they were outgained in total yards by a decisive margin of 528-138. They’ve scored 14 points or fewer and amassed 286 yards or less of total offense in each of those 4 losses. Conversely, Boston College enters this week on a 4-game win streak and is just 1 victory shy of bowl eligibility. The Eagles have already far exceeded College Football so-called expert’s preseason predictions. The Eagles are coming off a 21-14 home win over Connecticut in a game they outgained the Huskies 433-222 and wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. Any College Football away team like Boston College that’s won 4 or more games in a row and their previous victory came by 9 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Syracuse who’s lost 4 or more consecutive games in a row, and their last defeat came by 6 points or more while also allowing 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 26-2 SU (92.3%) since 1986. The SU betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me Boston College plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Titans @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Titans +3.0 Tennessee is coming off a much needed 28-23 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. 2023 first round draft choice quarterback Will Levis was brilliant in his starting debut while throwing for 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Steelers have a deceiving 4-3 record. I say that because they’ve been outscored by 4.9 yards and outgained by 110.9 yards per game. Not exactly the type of numbers that’s conducive to a winning record. Their defense has been very good, but the offense has been a polar opposite and that’s atrocious. The Steelers have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns throughout their 7 games this season. Any NFL non-division away underdog of 3.0 or less like Tennessee that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 6.5-points or greater, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2019. Give me the Titans plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Raptors @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: 76ers -8.0 I had Toronto last night and that result was never in doubt from the start has they blew out Milwaukee 130-11 as a 5.0-point home underdog. However, I don’t like this sport at all for them tonight. Toronto will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, they’ll be facing an opponent in Philadelphia which will be playing with 3 days rest since their last game. These teams met in Toronto last week and Philadelphia walked away with a 114-107 win despite Toronto making 53.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. I will go out on a limb and say the Raptors won’t come anywhere close to that in this one. Give me the 76ers minus points. |
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11-01-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors +5.5 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Raptors 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Raptors +5.5
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts +2.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Saints @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Colts +2.5 The Colts have shot themselves in the foot with turnovers in recent games. Otherwise, their offense has been very good over the last 3 contests, and they outgained opponents by 114.0 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans is 2-2 SU on the road, but their 2 wins came over Carolina and New England that have a combined 2-11 record thus far. Give me the Colts plus points. |
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10-28-23 | Air Force -14 v. Colorado State | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Air Force -14.0 Any conference away favorite like Air Force of between 12.0 and 21.0 with a win percentage of .500 or better who’s playing after Game 7 and is coming off a win in which they allowed 31 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Colorado State who has a losing record and is coming off an ATS cover, resulted in those away favorites going 33-4 ATS (89.1%) since 2014. Give me Air Force minus points. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Wyoming +5.0 Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points. |
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10-28-23 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. South Alabama | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ South Alabama 5:00 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: UL-Lafayette +11.0 Any conference away underdog of between 4.5 and 13.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like UL-Lafayette, and they’re playing in Games 6 through 9, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss by 19 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 31-1 ATS (96.8%) since 2016. Those underdogs also won 20 of those 32 games outright. Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points. |
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10-28-23 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -18.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Miami -18.5 Miami is coming off an impressive 28-20 win over Clemson. Virginia is coming off a massive 31-27 upset win over undefeated North Carolina and did so as a 24.0-point home underdog. Additionally, it was the 1st win over an FBS opponent by Virginia this season. This creates a rare betting situation that shows teams like Virginia fall from grace extremely quickly in their next game after pulling off a stunner of this magnitude. Any College Football away underdog of between 10.0 and 35.0 that’s playing before Game 12 and is coming off an away underdog of 17.0 or more SU win in which they scored 21 points or greater, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off a SU win, resulted in those away underdogs going 0-7 ATS since 1987. The average margin of defeat in those contests came by an enormous 39.3 points per game. |
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10-28-23 | Mississippi State +6.5 v. Auburn | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Mississippi State +6.5 Mississippi State is coming off a 7-3 upset win at Arkansas in a game they closed as a 7.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 4-3 (.571). The Bulldogs are now 13-9 SU in their last 22 games. Auburn will enter this SEC battle on a 4-game losing streak and their season record is currently 3-4 (.428). Any College Football away underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 like Mississippi State who’s coming off a conference away underdog SU win, they have a win percentage of .555 or better and won 11 or more of their last 22 games, versus an opponent like Auburn who has a win percentage of .714 or worse, resulted in those road underdogs going 20-0 ATS since 2003. Those underdogs also won 14 of those 20 games outright. Give me Mississippi State plus points. |
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10-28-23 | Houston v. Kansas State -17 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Kansas State -17.0 Any College Football home favorite of between 10.5 and 19.5 like Kansas State that’s playing after Game 4 that’s coming off a conference SU win by 7 or more in which they scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent like Houston coming off a conference SU loss by 7 or less in which they allowed 24 points or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by a decisive margin of 27.2 points per game. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Rangers (Eovaldi) 8:03 PM ET Game# 941-942 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (+134) Zac Gallen has been shaky over his last 3 postseason starts as evidenced by a 6.06 ERA/1.53 WHIP and 6 home runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings pitched. The latter home run to innings pitched ratio is especially concerning with Texas having hit 22 homers in 12 postseason games. Furthermore, the Rangers are averaging an enormous average of 1.79 homers hit per game at home this season. Nathan Eovaldi is an extremely profitable 10-1 during his career team starts in October. That includes 4-0 this year with a brilliant 2.42 ERA/0.96 WHIP and an average of 6.5 inning pitched per start. Texas reached the World series with a convincing 11-4 win in a deciding Game 7 at Houston. The Rangers are 21-6 this season following a game in which they scored 10 runs or more and outscored those 27 opponents by an average of 2.7 runs per outing. Give me the Rangers as a run-line favorite. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Georgia Southern | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Georgia State +1.5 Georgia Southern is 5-2 but failed to cover in their last 2 games. Throughout their previous 3 games, the Georgia Southern defense has allowed 32.3 points and 427.0 yards per game. Georgia State enters this contest with a stellar 6-1 record which includes going 3-0 SU&ATS on the road. In a game between 2 seemingly even matched teams, it could simply come down to who wins the turnover battle. Georgia State has committed just 7 turnovers in 7 games this season. Conversely, Georgia Southern has committed 7 during just their 2 last games alone, and has an alarming high 17 giveaways on the season. Georgia State is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference away games when the point-spread was between +6.0 and -6.0. Any College Football team like Georgia State with a point-spread between +8.5 to -8.5 who has a winning record, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent like Georgia Southern that has a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those teams like Georgia State going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average line for those winning teams in that exact situation was -1.8 and they won by an average of 15.6 points per contest. Give me Georgia State. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina. Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers v. Chiefs -5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Chiefs -5.0 The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Dallas which dropped their season record to an underachieving 2-3 (.400). The Chargers have lost 3 consecutive games to Kansas City, but all 3 defeats came by 6 points or fewer. However, this is a much better Chiefs defense than the ones they faced in the previous 3 meetings. I’ve heard a lot of chatter this week about Kansas City being an overvalued home favorite in recent years. However, my trusted 4d Handicapping Software Program tells me differently. The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 and 12-7 ATS during their previous 19 as a home favorite. That includes 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when facing opponents like the Chargers that are coming off a SU loss, and with a decisive average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. The Chiefs have won 5 in a row since an opening night 21-20 home loss to Detroit (5-1). During that stretch, this current win streak, Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of 13.4 points and 267.2 yards per contest. The Chiefs will also being playing with an additional 3 days rest after defeating Denver 19-8 in a Thursday night game. Any NFL division favorite of -4.5 to -12.5 like Kansas City who’s coming off a division win, versus an opponent like the Chargers who are coming off a SU loss and have a win percentage of between .187 and .428, resulted in those division favorites going 8-0 ATS since 2019. Those teams won those 8 contests by a substantial margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +3.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Browns @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Colts +3.5 The Browns are coming off a huge upset win as a home underdog of +9.5 over the previously unbeaten 49ers. They did so while starting their 3rd quarterback (P.J. Wlaker) in 5 games. Although the Cleveland defense has been spectacular, the same can’t be said for their offense. Despite their 3-2 (.600) record, Cleveland is averaging only 19.0 points scored and 319.8 yards gained per game. The Browns have yet to win 2 in a row and are 0-2 SU&ATS following a victory. The Colts are coming off a 37-20 loss at Jacksonville. That margin of victory was deceiving when considering they held a 354-233 totals yards advantage in that contest. They were plagued by a season high 4 offensive turnovers. Despite the defeat, the Colts are still a respectable 3-3 and that includes 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .333 or better like the Colts that’s playing after Game 5, and they’re coming off a road loss, versus an opponent like the Browns that are coming off an upset SU win as a home underdog of +7.0 or greater, resulted in those home teams going 25-0 SU since 1995. Considering the SU betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on even added significance. Give me the Colts plus the points. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV -7 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: UNLV -7.0 UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games. Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Central Michigan -5.5 v. Ball State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan @ Ball State 3:30 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: Central Michigan -5.5 Ball State is 0-6 SU this season when facing FBS opponents and were an uninspiring 1-4-1 ATS during those contests. They lost those 6 games by a substantial average of 24.7 points per contest. Central Michigan is coming off a 17-10 home win over Akron. Any college football away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 like Central Michigan with a winning record that’s coming off a SU win in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 3, resulted in those away favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2014. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by 20.8 points per game. Give me Central Michigan minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +3 | 25-21 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Illinois 3:30 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Illinois +3.0 Wisconsin is coming off a 15-6 home loss to Iowa that dropped their season record to 4-2 (.667). Adding insult to injury was the Wisconsin starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai leaving the game with a broken hand and is out for Saturday’s game. Illinois is coming off a momentum building 27-24 win at Marland and did so as a sizable 13.0-point underdog. Any home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, versus an opponent win percentage of .600 to .800 that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory during those 10 contests came to an average of 7.8 points per game. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 369-370 Play On: Minnesota +4.0 This qualifies as the fishiest line of the week. When that occurs, I almost always go against what seemingly is the obvious choice. Iowa is coming off a 15-6 upset win at Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes offense struggled once again while racking up just 237 yards of total offense of which 82 of those came on a 2nd quarter touchdown run. So basically, taking away that long jaunt the Hawkeyes amassed a mere 155 yards on 61 offensive plays with comes to a pathetic average of 2.5 yards gained per play. Minnesota is just 3-3 yet are just a 3.5-point underdog against the #24 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes who are 6-1. It must be noted that 2 of the Golden Gophers 3 losses came at the hands of #2 Michigan (7-0) and #10 North Carolina (6-0). If it loos too good to be true in sports betting more times than not it is. This is one of those times. Give me Minnesota plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Ohio State -4.5 Both teams will enter this contest with identical 6-0 records. Public sports bettors have overwhelmingly sided with the underdog Penn State Nittany Lions thus far. Yet, the line has jumped from 4.0 to 5.0 which surely indicates a sharp money move. Ohio State has won the last 6 times they faced Penn State while winning by an average of 8.0 points per game. Any college football home favorite of 7.0 or less that has a win percentage of .833 or better that’s playing before Game 9 like Ohio State, and they’re coming off a win by 9 points or more, versus an opponent like Penn State with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin came by 11.7 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars +2 v. Saints | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Saints 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Jaguars +2.0 Much of the storyline for NFL bettors leading up to this game hinges on the availability of Jacksonville starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence who is listed as questionable with a knee injury. However, you cans do a lot worse than C.J. Beathard as your backup quarterback. Beathard proved in his time in San Francisco that he can temporarily step in and give his team a chance to win. During his last season with the 49ers in 2020, he appeared in 6 games and tossed 6 touchdown passes versus 0 interceptions. The Jaguars enter this contest riding a 3-game win streak. Jacksonville is 3-0 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and road games with a 10.3 point per game differential. Jacksonville is also a noteworthy +7 this season in the turnover differential category. They’ll be facing a Saints team that began the season 2-0 and has lost 3 of 4 since. The Saints rely heavily on their stellar defense because their offense has left much to be desired. Since 2021, the Saints are an uninspiring 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS at home. Any NFL away team like Jacksonville with a point-spread of +2.5 to -3.0 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent like New Orleans who played their previous 2 games on the road, and that opponent is playing in Games 5 through 9, resulted in the away teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a substantial margin of 14.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars plus points. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover. NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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10-14-23 | Missouri +2.5 v. Kentucky | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Missouri +2.5 Kentucky went into last week’s matchup with #1 Georgia with high hopes. After all, they were undefeated and looked impressive while doing so. Nevertheless, they were thoroughly exposed in a 51-13 defeat and allowed Georgia to amass 6608 total yards and average a whopping 8.3 yards per offensive play. They’ll have their hands full again when facing a Missouri offense that’s averaging 37.0 points scored and 533.7 yards per game. The Tigers are also averaging a superb 7.8 yards per offensive play that speaks to their big play ability. Missouri’s defense can be vulnerable at times, but Kentucky lacks the potent passing game that can make them pay. During their 3 SEC contests, Kentucky has averaged a mere 134.0 yards passing per game and completed just 45.3% of their aerial attempts. Give me Missouri plus points. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Wyoming @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Air Force -11.0 Wyoming is coming off a home 24-19 upset win over then #24 Fresno State last week which improved their season record to 5-1. Despite that stellar record, Wyoming is outgained by an average of 49.5 yards per game. That indicates to me they’re not as good as their record indicates. Air Force is 5-0 and coming off a bye week. Their last game was a 49-10 blowout win over San Diego State. Air Force has dominated the opposition in those 5 wins while outgaining them by 187.6 yards and outscoring them by 25.4 points per game. The Falcons will be out for revenge stemming from a 17-14 loss at Wyoming last season. The Falcons are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 21.0 and with an average victory margin of 29.4 points per game. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 4:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Wisconsin -9.0 Wisconsin is coming off last week’s 24-13 home win over Rutgers that improved their season record to 4-1. That outcome also put them on a 3-game win streak in which they had a +7 turnover margin differential. Iowa is 5-1 but not nearly as good as their record indicates, and especially so on the offensive side of the ball where they average just 21.8 points and 250.5 yards per contest. Wisconsin will be seeking revenge stemming for a 24-10 loss at Iowa a year ago. The Hawkeyes are coming of a 20-14 win over Purdue. Comparatively, Wisconsin was a 38-17 blowout winner at Purdue earlier this season. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Tennessee -3.0 For starters, Tennessee will enter this game in Knoxville on Saturday riding a 13-game home win streak which saw them also go an extremely profitable 9-2 ATS when facing FBS opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 28.0 or less and with a substantial average victory margin of 33.6 points per game. Conversely, Texas A&M has lost 7 consecutive true road games and failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. Tennessee will also have the luxury of coming off a bye week. Compared to Texas A&M who lost a hard-fought battle with Alabama that saw them fall short in a 28-22 defeat. Rest and emotional edge favors Tennessee. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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10-14-23 | BYU v. TCU -4.5 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU @ TCU 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: TCU -4.5 Despite TCU being a mediocre 3-3, they find themselves as a touchdown favorite at home for this Saturday’s game versus a BYU team which is 4-1. There’s some deception when looking inside each team’s number as it relates to their records. BYU is at an average of -38.4 yards per game but still managed to win 4 of 5. Conversely, TCU is at an average of +104.3 points per game which indicates they’re better than just a 3-3 team. The Horned Frogs are coming off a disappointing 27-14 loss at Iowa State in a game they closed as a 6.0-point favorite. They were plagued by a -4-turnover differential in that contest. Since being torched by Colorado in their season opener, the TCU defense has steadily improved to the point where they’re allowing only 17.4 points and 326.2 yards per game over their previous 5 contests. Any College Football home favorite of 3.0 to 10.5 like TCU that’s playing before Game 8 of the season and they’re coming off a away favorite SU loss by 16 points or fewer in which they scored 29 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me TCU minus points. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State +4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Utah State 8:00 PM ET Game# 179-180 Play On: Utah State +4.5 Fresno State is coming off a 24-19 loss at Wyoming last seek to drop their season record to 5-1. However, that 5-1 record is a bit deceiving since they barely escaped with a 34-31 home win over an FCS team in Eastern Washington, and their other 4 wins came over opponents (Purdue, Kent State, Nevada, Arizona State) who are a combined 2-18 SU this season versus FBS opponents. Utah State is coming off back-to-back wins to improve their season record to 3-3. Additionally, Utah State has now gone 16-12 in their last 28 at home which comes into play with our betting angle applied to this pick. During their previous 3 contests, the Aggies averaged 38.7 points scored and 518.3 yards of total offense per game. During that identical stretch, the Utah State defense forced 11 turnovers which is terrific. Last Saturday they were a convincing 44-24 home winner over Colorado State and did so as a closing 3.0-point underdog. Any College Football home team like Utah State with a win percentage of .700 or worse that’s playing between Games 5 through 9, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or greater, and they’ve won 15 or more of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent like Fresno State coming off a SU loss by 5 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 23.5 points per game. Give me Utah State plus points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Chiefs -10.0 The weather won’t be ideal in Kansas City on Thursday night with the forecast calling for a 62% chance of rain and winds of 22 to 25 MPH. The Chiefs unequivocally have the better defense and quarterback in this matchup. I look for that to be a huge factor in us attaining the cover when considering the expected weather conditions. Teams tend to lean more heavily on their running games in situations such as these. Denver has been atrocious versus the run over their last 4 contests while allowing 251.7 yards per game and an alarmingly high 7.1 yards per attempt. Conversely, the Chiefs are allowing only 16.0 points and 301.4 yards per game throughout a 4-1 start to the season which includes a current 4-game unbeaten streak. During this current win streak, the Chiefs defense is allowing only 14.7 points and 284.8 yards per game. Additionally, since 2021 Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home when on a 4-game or more win streak and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State +7 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Jacksonville State 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Jacksonville State +7.0 This is an attractive Conference USA matchup that pits the 6-0 Liberty Flames against the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The home underdog Gamecocks are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with a massive +10 turnover differential. Furthermore, Jacksonville State is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season while allowing only a combined 17 points. Any College Football home underdog of 3.0 to 7.5 (Jacksonville State) that’s playing after Game 3 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a conference SU win, versus an opponent (Liberty) with a winning record and coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since 2018. The home underdogs also went 15-2 SU in those 17 situations as well. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Cowboys +4.0 Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion. Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Rams +4.0 The Eagles enter Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 record. However, they really own just 1 impressive win which came at Tampa Bay. Their other 3 wins came over Minnesota (1-3), New England (1-3), and Washington (2-3) by a combined 14 points. Conversely, the Rams are 2-2 and their lone defeats came by a combined 10 points. Los Angeles is also 3-0 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6.5-points and won 2 of those 3 contests SU. Any home underdog of 2.0 or greater with a win percentage of .461 or better that’s coming off an an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 13.0 or less, versus an opponent like the Eagles with a win percentage of .733 or better, resulted in those home underdogs like the Rams going 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. Those home underdogs also won 1 of those 16 games straight up. The average line for those home underdogs was +3.9 and they outscored the favorites by an average of 4.9 points per game. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Cardinals +3.5 The Bengals are the biggest early season disappointment thus far. They’re 1-3 and the lone win was a narrow 19-16 decision at home versus the Rams. Cincinnati has been completely listless in their 2 road games thus far while losing 24-3 versus Cleveland and 27-3 at Tennessee last Sunday. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati is averaging just 12.3 points scored and 236.0 yards of total offense per game thus far. Arizona is 1-3 thus far but covered 3 of those 4 contests. During their previous 3 games Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals offense has shown encouraging signs while averaging 24.0 points and 380.3 total yards per contest. They also didn’t commit any turnovers in those 3 contests. |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California +9.5 | 52-40 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ California 10:00 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: California +9.5 I’m predicting a flat spot here for #15 Oregon State. They’re coming off 2 extremely tough games versus #13 Washington State and #18 Utah. Now they’re about to face an unranked California team that’s just 3-2 and has been irrelevant on the national landscape or even PAC-1 picture2 for quite a long time. However, Cal has forced 13 turnovers in their first 5 games and look for them to cause a few more on Saturday in what I’m forecasting as a mentally and emotional vulnerable spot for the visiting Beavers. The Bears offense is capable of having a productive game in this spot considering they amassed 502 yards of total offense versus #7 Washington just 2 weeks ago. The Bears are coming off a 24-21 home win over Arizona State last week. Cal has also won 3 of their last 4 at home versus Oregon State. Any conference home underdog of 2.5 to 11.5 like California that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less, and they’re playing before Game 7 of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 12 of those 18 games SU. Give me California plus points. |
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10-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 56 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Dodgers (Kershaw) 9:20 PM ET Game# 9:07-908 Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) Merry Kelly has made 2 starts at Dodger Stadium this season and posted an awful 7.26 WHIP/2.54 WHIP. Quite frankly, with a WHIP of 2.54 in those outings Kelly was extremely lucky to come out of those starts with just 7.27 ERA. Clayton Kershaw has made 2 home starts versus Arizona this year and posted a superb 1.64 ERA/0.91 WHIP while also recording just shy of a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. As a matter of fact, Kershaw is 8-2 in his home team starts this season with a brilliant 1.58 ERA/0.84 WHIP. Since 2021, the Dodgers have gone an extremely profitable 21-5 at home versus Arizona. The Dodgers are a very impressive 53-28 at home and 74-39 when facing right-handed starting pitchers this season. Give me the Dodgers as a run-line favorite. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Texas A&M +1.5 Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban. Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
Washington State @ UCLA 3:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: UCLA -3.0 Washington State is 4-0, coming off a bye week, but comes up as a road underdog versus an unranked UCLA team. Speaking of the Bruins, they’re coming off their first loss of the season at Utah 14-7. They lost that contest despite holding the UTES to just 219 yards of total offense. Speaking of the UCLA defense, they’ve held opponents to 11.0 points and 263.8 yards per game during their 3-1 start. Even more impressive is they’ve held their first 4 opponents to a paltry average of 3.8 yards per play. Washington State is coming off 3 consecutive home game and an emotional 38-35 win over #15 Oregon State (5-1). Give me UCLA minus points. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -4.5 v. Missouri | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show | |
LSU @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: LSU -4.5 We have a 2-loss team in LSU (3-2) that’s a road favorite versus nationally ranked and undefeated Missouri (5-0). Yet, it’s LSU that comes up favorite in this spot. As a result, it comes as no surprise to me that public betting has heavily sides with the home underdog Missouri Tigers. If I said it once then I’ll say it a million times. When it comes to betting situations such as these think like oddsmakers because they’re not in the business of being generous to sports bettors. Additionally, Missouri won’t be able to stop LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and the explosive LSU passing game which has amassed 320 yards or more through the air in each of their 5 games played this season. Daniels has thrown for 16 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions and is averaging 342.0 yards passing per game. He’s also rushed for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, Missouri has allowed 281.7 yards passing per game over their last 3 contests. Give me LSU minus points. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Illinois 8:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Nebraska +3.5 Nebraska has rushed for 209 yards per game and averaged a healthy 5.5 yards per attempt. The Cornhuskers have also been adept at stopping the run as opponents are averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt against them. On the other hand, Illinois has allowed 164 yards or more rushing in 4 of 5 games this season. Illinois committed 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. After turning the ball over 4 times in each of their first 2 games, Nebraska has somewhat rid themselves of the turnover bugaboo and committed just 2 giveaways over their previous 3 games. Nebraska is coming off a 45-7 home loss to #2 ranked Michigan which dropped their season record to 2-3. Illinois enters this contest with an identical 2-3 season record. This sets a 100% College Football betting angle. Any College Football conference away underdog of between 2.0 to 5.5 that’s playing in Games 4 through 10 who is coming off a home loss by 18 points or more, and both teams in the matchup have losing records, resulted in those conference away underdogs with that specific point-spread parameter going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by 8.1 points per game. Give me Nebraska plus points. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -13.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: 49ers -13.5 These are water I very rarely swim in which is laying a double-digit number when it comes to NFL betting. However, there’s an exception to every rule and this one qualifies under that heading. The oddsmakers seem undeterred that the Cardinals (1-2) are coming off an impressive 28-16 win over Dallas in a game they closed as an 11.5-point home underdog and considering their 2 losses came by just a combined 7 points. However, they’ll be facing a beat on Sunday in San Francisco who’s 3-0 and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 90-42. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 or greater Like San Francisco that’s facing an opponent coming off a home underdog of 4.0 or more SU win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by an average of 24.6 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Texas 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Texas -16.0 I had Kansas last Saturday as my Game of the Week and they won and covered 31-20 as a 9.5-point home favorite over BYU. However, I was extremely fortunate for a few reasons. I was the beneficiary of not 1 but 2 defensive touchdowns by the Jayhawks. I was also able to cover despite BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis throwing for 357 yards. Unfortunately for Kansas, they’ll be facing a far stronger opponent this week in #3 Texas (4-0). Even with #24 Kansas (4-0) being unbeaten and nationally ranked themselves, they find themselves as a substantial double-digit underdog. This appears to me to be a trap where the underdog is a very attractive option. However, I’m electing to go with a contrarian mindset in this one. By the way, if you are worried about Texas playing archrival and unbeaten Oklahoma next, then don’t be. Texas has gone 2-0 SUU&ATS the last 2 seasons in the game before facing the Sooners while covering as a favorite on each occasion. This is also a far better Texas team than those past 2 versions were. It’s also worth noting, Texas has scored 50 points or more in their last 3 games versus Kansas. Give me Texas minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Baylor v. Central Florida -10.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Baylor @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: UCF -10.5 Emotions will be high on Saturday afternoon in Orlando as Central Florida hosts their first ever Big 12 Conference game. The Golden Knights will also be out to atone for a disappointing 44-31 loss at Kansas State last week in a game they allowed 536 yards. UCF has an explosive offense which averages 38.3 points scored and 565.0 yards per game. The Golden Knights will be in a prime spot to make an impression against a Baylor team that’s 0-3 this season versus FBS opponents and allowed 440.3 yards per game. Any College Football favorite of 10.0 to 21.0-points like UCF that allowed 478 yards or more in their previous game, and they average 44o yards or more of total offense per game, versus an opponent like Baylor that allows 440.0 or more yards per contest, resulted in those home favorites going 45-17 ATS (72.6%) since 2014 and 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2017. Give me UCF minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois v. Purdue +1 | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +1.0 Illinois is 2-2 but they’ve been far from impressive. Granted their losses have come versus national ranked team in Penn State by 17 and Kansas by 11. However, they escaped with home wins of 30-28 versus Toledo and 23-17 over Florida Atlantic. Purdue is 1-3 including 0-3 at home. However, they killed themselves with a combined 7 turnovers in double-digit loss to Syracuse (4-0) and Wisconsin (3-1). They had no trouble moving the ball in those defeats while amassing 396 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin and 403 against Syracuse. The good news is they’ll be facing an Illinois team that’s a turnover differential of -6 in their first 4 games and their defense is allowing 423.3 yards per contest. This is a very winnable game for the Boilermakers and especially so at home. Give me Purdue. |
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09-29-23 | Utah v. Oregon State -3.5 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 52 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 9:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Oregon State -3.5 Oregon State is coming off a 38-35 at #16 Washington State in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. The loss dropped the #19 ranked Beavers season record to 3-1. It doesn’t get any easier this week versus #10 Utah (4-0). The Beavers are 18-10 SU in their last 28 at home. However, Oregon State is 14-1 in their previous 15 at home. That includes 5-0 SU&ATS as a conference favorite with an average victory margin of 19.8 points per game. Any college football conference home favorite of 14.5 or less Like Oregon State that’s playing in Game 3 through 10 and they’re coming off a conference favorite SU loss in which they scored 35 points or fewer, and they won 24 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .362 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by an average of 21.0 points per game. Give me Oregon State minus points. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Buccaneers +5.0 Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents. Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways. Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards. Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | 6-20 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Falcons +3.5 Any NFL non-division away underdog of between +2.0 to +5.0 like Atlanta that’s playing in Games 2 through 8 and is facing an opponent like Detroit that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those teams like Atlanta going 21-0 ATS since 2019. Those underdogs also went 20-0-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Falcons plus points. |
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09-24-23 | Titans v. Browns -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Titans @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Browns -3.0 (-120) The Browns are coming off an away favorite SU loss at Pittsburgh last Monday night. The Titans are coming off last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime win over the Chargers in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. Any NFL non-division home favorite of between 2.5 to 12.5 points that’s coming off a division away favorite SU loss, and they’re facing an opponent that’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests came by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 423-424 Play On: Notre Dame +3.5 Notre Dame will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s 21-10 loss at Ohio State. This time around they’re playing at home and with a huge difference in their quality of starting quarterback Sam Hartman compared to what they had under center a season ago. During Notre Dame’s 4-0 start, Hartman completed 71.1% of his passes for 1061 yards and 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while also running for 2 scores as well. Notre Dame is 36-3 SU in their last 39 at home and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or greater. Additionally, Notre Dame is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 at home with a point-spread parameter of -9.5 to +5.5. Any non-conference College Football undefeated home underdog of between 2.5 to 5.5 that’s coming off 4 or more consecutive SU wins, and their previous game was versus a non-conference opponent, versus an opponent like Ohio State that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1993 and with an average victory margin of 9.3 points per game. Give me Notre Dame plus points. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ Washington State 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Washington State +3.0 Washington State is coming off a 64-21 win over Northern Colorado. Both teams enter this matchup with a perfect 3-0 record. Washington State has won their last 4 meetings versus Oregon State when playing at home. Any conference undefeated home team which is +3.0 to -3.0 like Washington State who’s playing after Game 3 of their season, and they allowed 33 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an undefeated opponent like Oregon State coming off a win by 7-points or more, resulted in those home teams going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2010. Those home teams were also 16-4 SU during those contests. Any College Football home underdog of +3.0 to +6.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better like Washington State, and they’re playing after Game 3 of their season, and they’re coming off 2 or more wins in a row with the last of which coming by 15 points or more, versus an opponent like Oregon State who has a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs with those point-spread parameters going 12-0 ATS and 11-1 SU since 2014. The only SU loss by those home dogs came by 1-point. Give me Washington State plus points. |
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09-23-23 | Colorado v. Oregon -21 | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Oregon -21.0 Colorado has been a nice story since Deion Sanders took over as head coach while guiding them to a terrific 3-0 start and #19 national ranking. The Buffaloes biggest weakness right now is their defense which has surrendered 35 points and 499 yards to Colorado State and 42 points and 541 yards to TCU but still managed to win both contests. On a positive note the Buffaloes defense has forced 7 turnovers in their 3 wins. The bad news, Oregon has yet to commit a turnover this season and averages 58.0 points and 587 totals yards per game. Even with their 3-0 record, Colorado is only +19.7 yards per game while the 3-0 Ducks are +301.7 yards per contest. Granted Colorado has played the much tougher schedule thus far, but their stop unit will be hard pressed to stop quarterback Bo Nix and the explosive Oregon offense. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Kansas -9.5 BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest. Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday. Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week. |
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09-23-23 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -8 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Texas A&M 12:00 PM ET Game# 407-408 Play On: Texas A&M -8.0 Auburn is 3-0 but keep in mind that their 3 wins came over California, Massachusetts, and Samford. Furthermore, they were extremely lucky in the 14-10 win at California due to the Golden Bears missing 3 field goals and Auburn accumulating just 230 yards of total offense. Furthermore, Auburn committed an alarmingly high 7 turnover through their 3 games played. Additionally, since 2021, Auburn is 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive wins and was outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game. Texas A&M is 2-1 with their only loss coming at #20 Miami 48-33. The Aggies have scored 33 points or more in each of their 3 games this season. Since 2018, Texas A&M is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.5 to 11.0 following a SU win and with an average victory margin of 16.5 points per game. Give me Texas A&M minus points. |
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09-22-23 | Boise State -6 v. San Diego State | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
Boise State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Boise State -6.0 San Diego State is 2-2 but is coming off 2 consecutive losses to #22 UCLA 35-10 and #14 Oregon State 26-9. Boise State is 1-2 but their losses came at #8 Washington and by 2 at home to a very good Central Florida team. The Aztecs have played the more difficult schedule thus far but the oddsmakers were undeterred by that factor and Boise State opened as a touchdown road favorite. I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more so than any other source. Any College Football conference away favorite of between and 3.5 to 9.0-points versus an opponent like San Diego State that’s coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 10 points or fewer on each occasion, and they have at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those conference away favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by a decisive 21.9 points per game. Give me Boise State minus the points. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants (Harrison) @ Dodgers (Sheehan) 10:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+115) The Giants Kyle Harrison has displayed bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 7.36 ERA/1.57 WHIP and allowed an alarming 6 home runs during just 14 2/3 innings pitch. That recent home rate allowed by Harrison is especially noteworthy considering the fact he’ll be facing one of the top power hitting teams in baseball tonight. Furthermore, the Giants bullpen has been terrible over their last 7 games while posting a staff 6.14 ERA/1.81 WHIP. Lastly, the Giants have gone an abysmal 5-25 in their last 30 away games. The Dodgers are coming off a 4-2 home loss to Detroit last night that halted a 5-game win streak. However, Los Angeles is 4-0 in their last 4 immediately following a loss and outscored their opponents by a wide margin 34-7 or 6.7 runs per game. Additionally, since 2021, the Dodgers are 46-11 at home with a +2.8 run per game differential immediately following an outing in which they scored 2 runs or less. Emmet Sheehan is scheduled to start for the Dodgers, and he has a stellar 2.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP in 5 home starts this season. The Los Angeles bullpen has been lights out over their last 7 games while recording an excellent staff 1.24 ERA/0.96 WHIP. Give me the Dodgers as a run-line favorite. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
Giants @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Giants +10.0 The Giants are coming off a thrilling 31-28 win at Arizona this past Sunday in which they overcame a lete 3rd quarter 28-7 deficit. Unfortunately, their star running back Saquon Barkley was hurt on their winning drive and is listed as doubtful. It must be noted, the Giants elected to stay on the west coast which is a great idea considering the short turnaround of playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Despite the injury of Barkley, and all the other factors stacking up against the Giants, we haven’t seen hardly if any line movement since the Sunday night opening odds were released. Since Brian Daboll took over as head coach of the Giants, his team has gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS as an underdog when coming off a SU win. The 49ers will be playing in their home opener after starting the season with 2 road wins. However, since 2005, NFL teams playing their home opener in Game 3 of the season, and they’re a favorite of 4.5 or greater, resulted in those home favorite going 5-15 ATS. Since 2019, away teams playing in either Game 2 or Game 3 who are coming off a road contest in which they scored 16 points or more, and they won 4 or more games the year before, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS since 2019. Those away teams also went 18-3-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rockies (Feltner) @ Padres (Snell) 9:40 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Padres -1.5 (-135) Ryan Feltner will be making his first start since 5/13. During his last 3 starts Feltner compiled a terrible 8.71 ERA/2.42 WHIP and averaged just 3.4 innings pitched per appearance. Colorado is an abysmal 22-54 on the road this season which includes 2-16 in their last 18 away. Adding more to that road futility is the fact that Colorado is 3-33 as a road money line underdog of +200 or greater this season and they were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game. One more final note, the Rockies are 2-22 on the road this season versus teams like San Diego who are at a +0.5 or greater run per game differential. The Padres are currently riding a 5-game win streak in which they outscored their opponents by an average of 4.8 runs scored per outing and all 5 of those wins came by 2 runs or more. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Padres have averaged 7.6 runs scored per game and belted 14 home runs. The Padres are scheduled to have their ace Blake Snell take the mound this evening. During his last 4 starts Snell has recorded a brilliant 0.72 ERA and the Padres won all 4 of those by 3 runs or more. Give me the Padres as a run-line favorite. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins -2 v. Patriots | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Dolphins -2.0 Tua and the Dolphins offense was magnificent in last Sunday’s 36-34 road win over the Chargers in a game they racked up 533 yards of total offense. New England is coming off a 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game they failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. That makes New England 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per contest. Miami is 4-1 SU and 5-0 in their last 5 versus Miami. Their only SU loss occurred in last season regular season finale 23-21 at New England. That was a game that Miami’s 3rd string quarterback started due to Tua and Teddy Bridgewater being injured. Since 2018, NFL away teams playing in a Game 2 like Miami who’s coming off an away win in their season opener, resulted in those teams going 7-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 12.4 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Cowboys -8.0 Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Falcons | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
Packers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Packers +2.5 Green Bay is coming off a convincing 38-20 win in their season opener at Chicago. Atlanta won their season opener with a 24-10 home win over Carolina which was more the result of facing a rookie quarterback and lousy opponent more than anything else. As a matter of fact, Atlanta was only able to muster 221 yards of total offense and was beneficiaries of a turnover margin of +3. Additionally, their defense allowed 154 yards rushing to the Panthers. Look for Green Bay running backs Aaron Jones and Corey Dillon to have big days and that will pave the way for us to cash a winning ticket. Since 2019, NFL non-division away teams like the Packers who are +3.0 to -3.0 coming off an away game, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 4 of regular season action, resulted in those teams going 13-1-3 (93%) ATS and 15-2 SU. Give me the Packers. |
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09-16-23 | Fresno State -3 v. Arizona State | 29-0 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
Fresno State at Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: Fresno State -3.0 Fresno State went on the road in their season opener and came away with an impressive 39-35 upset win over Purdue. That result certainly wasn’t a fluke when considering the Bulldogs outgained their Big 10 opponent in total yards by a wide margin of 487-363. Now they’ll be facing another Power 5 Conference team on the road this week as they’ll take on Arizona State. Sandwiched between those 2 games was last week’s home opener versus Eastern Washington in which they escaped with a 34-31 win despite being a massive 30.0-point favorite. With all considered, I’ll give them a pass for being flat in that contest. They’ll be facing an Arizona State team that’s coming off a 27-15 home loss to Oklahoma State in a game they were held to a mere 277 yards of total offense and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Sun Devils opened the season with an uninspiring 24-21 home win over Southern Utah who’s an FCS team and were nearly upset as a 34.5-point favorite. Give me Fresno State as a point-spread favorite. Since 2011, road teams like Fresno State in Game 2 through 6 that are coming off a home game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 on the point-spread, versus an opponent like Arizona State that’s coming off an underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me Fresno State as a point spread favorite. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Florida +6.5 Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112. College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points. |
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09-16-23 | South Alabama +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: South Alabama +7.5 This certainly seems like a fishy line to me. We have a Power 5 Conference school in Oklahoma State that’s 2-0 as just a touchdown favorite at home versus a 1-1 South Alabama team from the Sun Belt Conference. The truth of the matter is South Alabama is a highly experienced team that won 10 games a season ago. They ran into a buzzsaw in their season opening loss at Tulane in a game they were derailed by committing 5 turnovers. Oklahoma State opened the season with a listless 27-13 home win versus Central Arkansas who plays at the FCS level in a game they allowed their opponent to rack up 391 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to get the outright upset in this one, but we won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me South Alabama as a point-spread underdog. |
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09-16-23 | Iowa State v. Ohio +3 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Ohio +3.0 We have a Big 12 team like Iowa State as just na 3.0-point road favorite versus a Mid America Conference team. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, then most of the time it is. This is a textbook example of such in my eyes. Iowa State has been borderline anemic offensively through their first 2 games. I’ll give them a pass in last week’s 20-13 loss at Iowa in which they amassed just 290 yards of offense against a Hawkeye defense which is among the best in college football during recent seasons. However, in their season opening 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa who plays at the FCS level they had a mere 250 yards of total offense. The Cyclones will be up against an Ohio Bobcats defense which has allowed only 13.3 points and 233.3 yards per game throughout their first 3 games. Ohio star quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to the line in last week’s 17-10 upset win at FAU. Rourke was knocked out of the game during 1st half action in their season opening 20-13 loss at San Diego State. The Bobcats backup quarterback tossed 3 interceptions in that contest which ultimately cost Ohio the game. Since the start of last season Rourke has thrown 26 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions and passed for over 3500 yards. Give me Ohio plus points. |
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09-15-23 | Army +9 v. UTSA | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Army @ UTSA 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Army +9.0 UTSA was somewhat disappointing in their first 2 games. They began the season with a 17-14 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s the same Houston team that was upset at Rice last week. They followed that up with another listless performance by defeating Texas State 20-13 at home but failed to cover as a 14.0-point favorite. They outgained both those opponents by a combined 789-551 in total yards. However, they turned the ball over 4 times and failed to force a turnover in either contest. Army will be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA last season. The Black Knights dropped their season opener 17-13 at UL-Monroe in a game they were plagued by 5 turnovers in a contest they closed as an 8.5-point favorite. They bounced back with a convincing 57-0 home win last week over Delaware State who plays at the FCS level. The Black Knights offense has been run heavy for quite some time now as they run the triple option. However, they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball in the first 2 games while amassing 27 pass attempts and gained 345 yards in the air. As a matter of fact, Army had an extremely uncharacteristically high 304 yards passing in their loss to UTSA last season. Any non-conference away underdog of 3.0 to 10.0-points who’s not coming off a bye week like Army that’s playing with revenge and coming off a SU win by 4 points or more, versus an opponent like UTSA coming off a win in which they failed to cover, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0-1 ATS since 1995. They also won 10 of those 14 games straight up. Give me Army plus the points. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Vikings +6.5 The Eagles walked away with a 25-20 win at New England last Sunday in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. They also covered that contest as a 4.0-point favorite to boot. New England outgained Philadelphia in total yards by a decisive margin of 382-251. The Eagles nearly squandered an early 16-0 lead and ultimately the difference came down to a pick-6 thrown by Mac Jones in the 1st quarter. Conversely, the Vikings lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay 20-17 in a contest by all rights they should’ve have won if not for a turnover margin of -3. Minnesota outgained Tampa Bay in total yards by a wide margin of 369-242. The Vikings will be playing with revenge stemming from a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia in ironically enough Week 2 of last season. Look for the Vikings to be not so unlucky this week and Philadelphia not as fortunate as each team was in Week 1. Any NFL away underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 like Minnesota is that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 5 points or fewer, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 1.0-point or more, resulted in those away underdogs going a perfect 11-0 ATS and a compelling 10-1 SU since 1990. Give me the Vikings plus the points. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | 40-0 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 0 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Giants 8:20 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Giants +3.5 Giants head coach Brian Daboll did a terrific job last season in his first year on the job. The Giants wre 9-7-1 in regular season action and made the playoffs as a NFC Wildcard team. They then went on the road and beat a 13-4 Minnesota team 31-24 before being eliminated by defending NFC champion Philadelphia the following week. Yes, the Giants lost both regular season matchups versus Dallas last season. However, both were one score games. By the way, during Daboll’s first year as head coach in New York the Giants were a terrific 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 5.5 or less and they won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Since 2011, any NFL Game 1 division home underdog of between 2.5 and 5.5 like the Giants are, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS and 9-1-1 SU. Give me the Giants plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -3 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Chargers -3.0 I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater. Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play. |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Browns +2.5 Cleveland has gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meeting versus Cincinnati and that includes winning 5 straight at home in this divisional series. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Cleveland, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Browns plus points. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +3 | 30-7 | Loss | -125 | 45 h 40 m | Show | |
49ers @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Steelers +3.0 Under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers. That includes 0-2 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or less. As a matter of fact, San Francisco dropped their season opener last season while suffering a 19-10 loss at Chicago in a game they close as a 6.5-point favorite, and versus a Bears team that finished the 2022-2023 season 3-14. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 season openers under current head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 37.0 or greater and their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Pittsburgh, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Falcons -3.5 Both teams went 7-10 SU last season and split their season series with the home team winning on both occasions. The Falcons finished the season 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home. Carolina is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta as an underdog of 3.0 or greater while losing by an average of 11.2 points per game. Any NFL division home favorite of 4.0 or less that’s playing in their opening game that won 7 games or more during the previous season, and there’s a total of 42.5 or less, versus an opponent like Atlanta that won 6 or more games the year before, resulted in those divisional home favorites going 17-1 ATS (94.4%). Those favorites also went 18-0 SU during those contests and won by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Falcons minus points. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State +6 | 22-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 31 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Washington State +6.0 Washington State is coming off a 50-24 win at Colorado State and covered easily as an 8.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo in their season opener last Saturday. The Badgers failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in a game they led just 14-10 at the half. Home teams coming off a straight up win by 49 points or less in which they scored 50 points or more like Washington State, and they’re facing a team like Wisconsin who is coming off a win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 25-1 ATS (96%). Those home teams also went 23-3 SU as well. Considering this betting angle backs the home team that’s the underdog, then the SU results take on even added significance. Give me Washington State plus points. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Alabama -7.0 Alabama is coming off a 56-7 non-conference win over Middle Tennessee State. Texas is coming off a 37-10 win over Rice. Any home favorite of 6.5 or greater like Alabama that’s coming off a non-conference SU win by 49 points or less, and they scored 50 points or more in that win, versus an opponent like Texas that’s coming off a SU win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a massive 37.3 points per game. Give me Alabama minus points. |
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09-09-23 | Oregon v. Texas Tech +6.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Oregon @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: Texas Tech +6.5 Texas Tech is coming off a 35-33 overtime loss at Wyoming in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. Oregon is coming off an 81-7 blowout win over an FCS team in Portland State. Any home underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points like Texas Tech that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or greater SU loss, and their playing in Games 2 through 9, versus an opponent like Oregon that’s coming off a win by 9 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1987. Additionally, those home underdogs won 12 of those 13 games SU. Give me Texas Tech plus points. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0 Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico. Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points. |
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09-08-23 | Illinois +3 v. Kansas | 23-34 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 36 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Kansas 7:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Illinois +3.0 The Illini are coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. Conversely Kansas toyed with Missouri State who plays at the FCS level during last week’s 48-17 win. Since 1985, any College Football non-conference away underdog of 6.5 or less like Illinois, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 3 points or fewer in which they failed to cover as a home favorite, and they won 11-games or fewer the season before, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 ATS. The away underdogs also won 11 of those 12 games straight up. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Duke 8:00 PM ET Game# 235-236 Play On: Duke +13.0 Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Clemson is superior athletically and has more overall team speed than Duke. They annually have one of the top recruiting classes in the country and has produced a plethora of NFL players during head coach’s Dabo Swinney’s tenure which hasn’t been the case at Duke. Okay, now let’s move on to just this game and who will cover the spread. Duke enjoyed a 9-4 season under 1st year head coach Mike Elko in 2022. The year was capped off with a convincing 30-13 win over UCF in a bowl game. The Blue Devils 4 losses all came by 8 points or fewer. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 defeats came by 3 points or less. Duke is only 13-15 in their last 28 at home but was 5-1 last season. Duke returns 18 starters from last year’s successful team including star quarterback Riley Leonard. The junior was outstanding last season while throwing 2967 yards and 20 touchdowns versus 6 picks. Leonard also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns as well. Look for Leonard to be a key cog in us getting the cover. Any College Football Game 1 home underdog of 4.0 to 16.5-points like Duke that won 8 or more regular season games the year before, and has won 9 or more of their last 28 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 2010. The underdogs also won 7 of those 10 games straight up. Giver me Duke plus the points. |
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09-02-23 | South Alabama +6.5 v. Tulane | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET Game# 219-220 Play On: South Alabama +6.5 Soth Alabama finished the 2022 regular season with an impressive 10-2 record. Their lone defeats came by just a combined 5 points. The Jaguars were 5-1 SU on the road with their lone loss coming a at UCLA 32-31 in a contest they closed as a 15.5-point underdog. They return 18 starters from that team. Tulane had a storybook 12-2 season and AAC Championship. Additionally, that magical season concluded with a 45-28 win over UCF in their conference championship game, and a stunning New Year’s Day Bowl thrilling win over traditional college football powerhouse USC. Yet here we are 8 months later, and they’re just a touchdown favorite in their season opener at home versus a Sun Belt Conference team. They’re begging you to lay the points at home with the Green Wave. Tulane lost some very key personnel on both sides of the ball that heavily contributed to an extremely successful season. I going with a contrarian approach in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if the underdog pulls off an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and take South Alabama plus points. |