Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors +1 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Toronto +1.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, Indiana has gone 0-5 SU&ATS in conference road games when their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5 and they lost by an average of 6.4 points per contest. This will be the 3rd road game of the season for Indiana and they’re 0-2 SU&ATS in the first 2 with both coming as a favorite. Indiana likes to play a high tempo offensive game and as a result they’ve allowed 119 points or more in 3 of their 4 games. Toronto is coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their last 2 contests which dropped their season record to 1-3. However, since the start of the 1996-1997 NBA season, home teams that are playing in their first 6 games and are coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their previous 2 outings, resulted in those home teams going 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU. Granted it’s not a huge sample size and can surely be deemed as rare occurrences. Nonetheless, it’s impactful and usually prompts public betting to side with the road teams when it indeed arises. My experience leads me to believe that will indeed be the case again in this matchup. Going against the public is rarely a bad thing to do. By the way, the Raptors have gone 11-0 in their last 11 true home games versus Indiana. Bet on Toronto. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Tampa Bay -11.5 (5*) One of my cardinal rules has been to never lay a double-digit number in the NFL. However, this is a rare exception. The Chicago offense has amassed more rushing yards than passing yards in each of their previous 5 games. That’s a real rarity in the modern-day NFL. That’s also an issue since the will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s #1 in the NFL against the run in allowing a mere 54.8 yards rushing per game. The Tampa run defense was also #1 against the run last season as well at 80.6 yards allowed per game. How about Chicago’s pass offense? Well, I’m glad you asked. Their averaging a pathetic 117.2 yards passing per game which is dead last in the NFL and by a substantial margin. The Bears have also allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked a league high 22 times. The Chicago defense is #7 in total defense. Nonetheless, against a relentless and explosive offensive attack that Tampa Bay possesses, they’ll get completely worn down as the game progresses. Additionally, since 2019 the Bears have gone 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. This will be the 3rd time that Tampa Bay is a double-digit home favorite since 2019. They covered each of the previous 2 and won by a mammoth 25.5 points per game. The Bucs are 3-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by a massive 29.3 points per game. They’ll be facing a Bears team that has averaged a paltry 13.3 points scored per game in 3 road contests. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*) We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak. Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number. |
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10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3.5 | 32-34 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*) This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 41-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech 12:30 PM ET Game# 341-342 Play On: Syracuse +3.5 (5*) I like the offensive identity since Syracuse inserted Garrett Schrader as their starting quarterback. They have become a run first team and they have executed that part of their game quite well. However, after a 3-1 start to the season, the Orange have dropped 3 games in a row. The silver lining is that each of those defeats came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a lopsided 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh. Any college football road underdog of 4.0 or less (Syracuse) that’s coming off back-to-back losses by 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Virginia Tech) coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those road underdogs going 13-0 ATS and 12-0-1 SU since 1982. Bet on Syracuse plus the points. |
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10-22-21 | Suns +1 v. Lakers | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Phoenix @ LA Lakers 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Phoenix +1.0 (5*) The Lakers are coming off a 121-114 home loss to Golden State in their season opener in a game they closed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Any Game 2 NBA home team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss in their season opener, resulted in those home teams going a dismal 0-10 SU&ATS since 2002. They lost those contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Bet on Phoenix. |
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10-22-21 | Jazz v. Kings +6.5 | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Utah @ Sacramento 10:05 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Sacramento +6.5 (5*) The Jazz will be feeling their oats after a home blowout 107-86 win over a terrible Oklahoma City team. They covered that game as a 13.5-point favorite which is an extremely high number for a season opener and speaks to how bad the oddsmakers think the Thunder is. Now Utah goes on the road to face a Sacramento team who they went 3-0 SU&ATS last season and won by 31.7 points per contest. You can forgive the Jazz for being a bit overconfident going into this contest. However, Sacramento is coming off a terrific performance in their season opening 124-121 win at Portland as a 6.5-point underdog. Any Game 2 favorite of 2.5 or greater that opened the season as a favorite of -10.0 or greater, versus an opponent off a straight up underdog win, resulted in those favorites going 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU. Bet Sacramento plus the points. |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | 115-83 | Win | 101 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Boston 7:35 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Toronto +6.5 (5*) Boston is coming off a grueling 138-134 double overtime loss at New York in their season opener on Wednesday. Toronto looked terrible in their home opener on Wednesday in falling to Washington 98-83 in a game they shot a miserable 30.9% and committed 19 turnovers. NBA road underdogs coming off a game in which there was a combined 190 or fewer points scored, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a game in which there was a combined 235 or more points scored, resulted in those road underdogs going 28-6 ATS (82.3%) throughout the previous 5 season. The average point-spread in those 34 contests was 5.8 and the underdogs won straight up 16 times. Bet on Toronto plus the points. |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +4 | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
San Jose State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET Game# 411-412 Play On: UNLV +4.0 (5*) San Jose State is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season and averaged just 10.0 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Spartans have scored 17 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season. UNLV is 0-6 thus far. However, they’ve shown vast improvement over their last 3 games. They lost all 3 of those contests by 8 points or fewer and against respectable opponents (Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State). UNLV has played a far more difficult schedule than the one San Jose State has faced. This is the week the Rebels get over the hump. Bet UNLV plus the points. |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Atlanta 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (5*) Atlanta carries a ton of momentum into this season after last year’s surprisingly successful campaign. The Hawks ascended as last season progressed and that was especially apparent at home. The Hawks went 19-2 SU in their final 21 regular season home games. That includes winning their last 11 regular season home games in which they covered 10 of those contests. Any NBA Game 1 home team (Atlanta) that won 50 or more games a season ago, and they’re facing an opponent (Dallas) also playing in their season opener and who won 50 games or less the season before, and has won 27 or more of its past 82 away games, resulted in those home teams going a terrific 48-3 SU (94.1%) since 1995. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, this powerful NBA straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet Atlanta minus the small number. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Dallas @ New England 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: New England +3.5 (5*) I have seen this scenario too many times over the past 20 years with Bill Belichick. He’s brilliant in devising successful defensive game plans when facing dominant and explosive offenses. The Cowboys offense certainly qualifies in the regard as they enter this week averaging 34.0 points scored and 439.6 yards gained per game. Despite their 2-3 record, New England still field a formidable defense that allows just 18.4 points and 317.4 yards per game. Conversely, Dallas has allowed 23.4 points and 390.4 yards per game. Nonetheless, those numbers could be much worse if it weren’t for the fact, they’ve forced 12 turnovers through 5 games. New England rookie quarterback Mack Jones and his offense will be able to move the ball on Dallas and will be extremely cognizant of the opposition’s uncanny ability to force turnovers. By the way, since 10/14/2021 and all with Belichick as their head coach, New England has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 4.0 or less, and they won by a decisive average of 12.9 points per game. I like New England to win this game outright but will gladly take the points as an additional bonus and not get greedy. Bet the Patriots plus the points. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards. The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below. Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game. |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +6 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Packers @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game # 255-256 Play On: Chicago +6.0 (5*) Green Bay will be a popular bet on Sunday especially when it comes to public perception. Case in point, this line opened at 4.5 and is now up to 6.0 with an overwhelming number of bets and money being placed on Green Bay. However, despite how bad the Chicago offense has looked this season they’re still 3-2 thus far and have won 2 in a row. The Chicago defense has been the deciding factor in their 3 wins. During those victories they allowed 13.3 points and 297.7 yards per game. Chicago is also 2-0 SU&ATS at home thus . Furthermore, since 10/4/2015, the Bears have gone an extremely profitable 15-2 ATS when playing before Game 15 of the season and as a home underdog of 3.0 or greater. The average line in those 17 games was 4.1 and Chicago won 9 of those contests straight up. I’m going with a hardcore contrarian approach in this one. Bet the Bears plus points. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +4 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
Air Force @ Boise State 9:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Air Force +4.0 (5*) Boise State is coming off last week’s 26-17 upset win at then #10 BYU. That evened the Broncos season record at 3-3. However, Boise State is 0-2 SU&ATS following a win this season and both contests occurred at home. Boise State has allowed 235 yards or more rushing in 3 of its 6 games, and that’s 98th out of 130 FBS teams in that statistical category. That presents an issue for the Broncos defense since they’ll be facing an Air Force team who averages 341.3 yards rushing per game which is best in the country. Speaking of Air Force, they enter this week with a stellar 5-1 record. Their only loss happened in Week 3 when they fell 49-45 at Utah State. Casting that contest aside, the Falcons allowed 14 points or less and 286 yards or fewer in each of their other 5 games. It also must be noted, Air Force is 2nd in the country when it comes to offensive time of possession at 37:43 per game. The opposing offense can’t score if they’re on the sidelines and that’s been a key contributor to those 5 impressive defensive efforts. Lastly, Air Force will be playing with big time revenge after losing its last 4 encounters with Boise State. I love this spot for the away underdog. Bet Air Force plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Kansas State 7:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Kansas State +6.5 (5*) Kansas State has been a profitable conference home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, since 2011 Kansas State is 9-3 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog of 7.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, Iowa State has gone 0-4 ATS as a conference away favorite of 7.0 or less and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Additionally, Kansas State has won 7 consecutive home games versus Iowa State. Kansas State got off to a 3-0 start but unfortunately dropped their last 2 games. There is a silver lining to those losses when considering they came against #12 Oklahoma State (4-0) and #4 Oklahoma (6-0). It’s not like they were blown out as their defeat at Oklahoma State was 31-20, and in their previous game the Wildcats lost 37-31 to Oklahoma but covered as a 12.0-point home underdog. The Wildcats will be playing with big time revenge after being throttled 45-0 at Iowa State last season. Iowa State was ranked in the Top 10 preseason rankings. However, they’re off to a 3-2 start and they’re currently unranked. The Cyclones are coming off a 59-7 home rout of Kansas. Iowa State is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Cyclones lone 3 wins came over Northern Iowa (FCS level team) 16-10 in a game they were a 31.5-point favorite, Kansas (1-4), and UNLV (0-5). Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.5 points (Kansas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a home loss by 9 points or fewer in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2002. Those underdogs also went 13-7 SU in those games as well. Bet Kansas State plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +12.0 (5*) Iowa is coming off a comeback win at home last Saturday versus then #4 Penn State and had to overcome a 17-3 deficit to do so. However, they were very fortunate that Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was injured in that game, and from that point on the excellent Iowa defense was able to close the gates. Last week’s game received a fair share of hype and attracted national attention. I am looking at Iowa being vulnerable physically and mentally this week against a middle of the road conference opponent. Purdue will be playing with rest after sustaining disappointing 20-13 home loss to Minnesota 2 weeks ago. That defeat dropped their season record to a still respectable 3-2. The Iowa defense has received penty of praise and rightfully so. Nonetheless, the Purdue stop unit has flown under the radar while allowing just 15.4 points and 299.6 yards per game. As good as Iowa has been this season, their offense has amassed only 303 yards or fewer in 4 of 6 games. The Boilermakers have defeated Iowa in 3 of the last 4 meetings and were 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those matchups. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Missouri +9.0 (5*) Texas A&M is coming off last week’s huge upset win as a 18.5-point home underdog over then top ranked Alabama. Despite that colossal upset, the Aggies are just 1-2 in SEC action while allowing 28.0 points and 467.7 yards per game. The one thing that 3-3 Missouri has done consistently well this season is move the football. The Tigers are averaging 37.8 points scored and 467.0 yards gained per game. Another potential contributing factor to the home underdog covering this contest is turnovers. Missouri has +4 turnover margin thus far while Texas A&M is at -4. I’m looking for A&M to not even come close to matching their intensity they displayed at home versus Alabama last week. The college football betting angle below further supports that prediction. Any college football conference home underdog of 11.5 or less, versus an opponent (Texas A&M) with a win percentage of .800 or worse that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 10.0 to 22.0 points straight up win, resulted in those conference home underdogs going 20-3 ATS (87%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 20-11 SU in those contests. Bet Missouri plus the points. |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*) #25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State. I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5. The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2. Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bills +3.0 (5*) The Kansas City offense is once again a highly explosive unit. However, their defense has been another story. Kansas City has allowed 29 points or more in each of their first 4 games and gave up 457 yards or more 3 times. They’ll be facing a Buffalo offense that over their previous 3 games is averaging 39.3 points scored and 415 yards gained per contest. The only one that’s going to stop the Buffalo offense in this game is Buffalo, and that’s if they derail themselves with penalties or turnovers. The Bills defense is #1 in total yards and points allowed per game during the first quarter of the NFL season. However, they have played some less than stellar quarterbacks to this point. Nevertheless, compared to the Chiefs stop unit, look for Buffalo’s defense to get enough stops at key times. Additionally, the Bills have forced 11 turnovers over their current 3-game win streak, and Kansas City has committed 7 turnovers throughout their previous 3 contests. Since 2019, Buffalo is 13-4 straight up and 12-4-1 ATS in regular season road games. That includes 6-0-1 ATS if they were an underdog of 6.0 or less. Conversely, you may be surprised to know that Kansas City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Finally, Buffalo will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 37-24 loss at Kansas City during last season’s AFC Championship Game. Bet on Buffalo plus the small number. |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
Giants @ Cowboys 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Giants +7.0 (5*) Much has been made about Dallas’ defense being much improved. However, the facts remain that they rank 30th in pass defense in allowing 315.3 yards per game and #27 in total defense at 396.3 yards per contest. Those defensive statistics would be much worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 10 turnovers during its first 4 games. You may be surprised to know that the Giants rank 7th in passing offense and have committed only 3 turnovers in their first 4 contests. The Giants will have plenty of momentum heading into this game after a thrilling 27-21 overtime win at New Orleans last Sunday as an 8.0-point underdog. Daniel Jones is coming off his finest day as a pro after going 28-42 (70%) for 402 yards passing. The Giants are just 1-3 but 2 of their losses came by narrow 3 and 1-pont margins. They’ve also covered both of their road games and each as an underdog. Covering on the road is nothing new for New York. Since 10/7/2018, the Giants have gone an incredible 16-1 ATS as a conference away underdog. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
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10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*) The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest. After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
LSU @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: LSU +2.5 (5*) Kentucky is coming off a huge home upset win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0 recorded and catapulted them to a #16 ranking. Now they’ll be facing unranked LSU (3-2) and have #2 Georgia on deck and as only a short favorite on their home field. By the way, LSU will be looking to bounce back after a 24-19 home upset loss to Auburn last week. This looks like a prime spot for the underdog LSU Tigers to come up big. Bet LSU plus the points. |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | 52-46 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Western Kentucky -3.0 (5*) This is an extremely fishy line when you consider that Western Kentucky is 1-3 and is the favorite over a UTSA team who’s 5-0. One thing is for sure, the Western Kentucky offense is explosive. They have averaged 39.0 points scored and 52.5 yards gained per game. That includes piling up 560 yards of total offense in last week’s 48-31 loss at #11 Michigan State. Their other defeats came at Army 38-35 and versus Indiana 33-31. During its last 2 games, UTSA gave up 329 yards passing to Memphis and 316 to winless UNLV. That is problematic for the Roadrunners defense since it will be facing an opponent on Saturday that has passed for 365 yards or more in all 4 games they’ve played and includes 435 yards or more in 3 of those contests. Bet Western Kentucky minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
SMU @ Navy 3:30 PM ET Game# 353-354 Play On: SMU -13.0 (5*) If there was any chance of #24 SMU (5-0) overlooking Navy that was put to rest after the Midship upset UCF last week as a 15.0-point home underdog. Additionally, that was Navy’s first victory of the season after beginning with 3 losses. SMU is explosive yet balanced offensively. The Mustangs average 40 runs and 38 passes per game while averaging 42.6 points scored and 532.6 yards gained per contest. SMU will be able to score at will in this contest and jump out to a comfortable lead. That will take Navy out of their offensive comfort zone of running the ball successfully and chewing up clock to shorten games against teams with more talent. Bet on SMU minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Rutgers 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Rutgers +4.5 (5*) Rutgers has the unenviable task of going through a tough stretch of games after facing #7 Ohio State (4-1) last week and #9 Michigan (5-0) prior to that. They more than held their own in Ann Arbor in a 20-13 loss. However, last week was a different story as they were blown out at home by Ohio State 52-13. Yet, they find themselves as just a 5.5-point home underdog on Saturday versus #11 and undefeated Michigan State (5-0). We’ve already witnessed the public’s overreaction as they’ve wagered heavily on Michigan State. Yet we’ve seen little line movement from the opening number. Bet on Rutgers plus the points. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Rams @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Seahawks +2.5 (5*) The Rams received a dose of humility during last week’s 37-20 home loss to Arizona. The vaunted Los Angeles defense allowed Arizona to accumulate a substantial 465 yards during that defeat. It was the 2nd straight week their defense was less than inspiring. The week before they allowed Tampa Bay to amass 446 yards of total offense. This will be the 3rd consecutive week they’ll be facing an elite quarterback. Furthermore, the Rams defense hasn’t forced a turnover in each of their previous 2 games., and they will be facing a Seahawks team which hasn’t turned the ball over in 3 consecutive games. Seattle is coming off a 28-21 division win at San Francisco. On a negative note, they allowed the 49ers to rack up 457 yards of total offense in that contest. However, since 2019, Seattle is 8-1 SU following a game in which their defense allowed 450 yards or more, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS at home. Any NFL team (Seahawks) that’s coming off a division win by 17 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) that’s coming off a home loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 42-6 (87.5%) straight up since 2012. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Bet on the Seahawks plus the small number. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Raiders +3.0 (5*) Technically this will be a Chargers home game. However, Los Angeles hasn’t yet embraced the Chargers like they have the Rams. Since being moved from San Diego, the Chargers have lost both of their home games versus the Raiders. During those 2 contests and based on fan support, the Raiders faithful have outnumbered Chargers fans despite being the visiting team. I look for that to continue this evening as well, and especially with Las Vegas off to a perfect 3-0 start for a first time since 2002. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is off to a terrific start to the season while averaging a robust 401 yards passing per contest. Carr’s performance line has been key to the Raiders being #1 thus far in total offense at 471.0 yards per game. I also look for the Raiders to run the ball more than they usually do when considering the Chargers are dead last in run defense, and they’re allowing opponents to average an alarmingly high 170.0 yards rushing per game. The Chargers are coming off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City in a game they were a 7.0-point underdog. That result and the Raiders hot starts doesn’t bode well for the Chargers chances of covering according to my NFL 4D handicapping software database. During NFL regular season action, any team (Raiders) coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (Chargers) who is coming off a division win by 2 points or more and as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those teams like Las Vegas going 15-0 straight up since 2012. The straight up results take on added significance since this betting angle supports the underdog. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos +1 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*) Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season. Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6 v. Packers | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Steelers +6.0 (5*) I’m not sold on Green Bay being an elite team. The Packers are 2-1 thus far but they’re allowing 27.7 points per contest. It’s not as if their offense is lighting up either. The Packers are averaging a modest 22.7 points scored and 301.7 yards gained per game which is well below their high standards. After beginning the season with an upset win at Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped their next 2 games at home to Las Vegas and Cincinnati. The Steelers offense has received some harsh criticism and rightfully so. After all, they have scored just combined 43 points throughout their first 3 games. Nonetheless, since the start of the 2017 season, Pittsburgh has gone 11-3 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 5-0 ATS when they’re +6.0 or greater. Bet the Steelers plus the points. |
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10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings +2 | 14-7 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Browns @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Vikings +2.0 (5*) The Browns are a quality team, but we must keep in mind that this is a Cleveland franchise which has gone a dismal 10-41 in their last 51 non-division away games, and includes 4-20 in their last 24 versus teams with a losing record. The Browns are 2-1 but their wins have come over Chicago and Houston. Minnesota continued their mastery over opponents in non-division home games under Mike Zimmer with last week’s 30-17 win versus Seattle. The Vikings have now gone 28-9 in their last 37 non-division home games and that includes 27-10 ATS (73%). It was the first win of the season for Minnesota after losing their first 2 games by a combined 4 points against opponents that currently have a combined 6-1 record. The Vikings offense has been impressive throughout their first 3 contests while averaging 29.0 points and 425.0 yards gained per game. Bet the Vikings plus the small number. |
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10-02-21 | Indiana +12.5 v. Penn State | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Indiana +12.5 (5*) Indiana is off to a disappointing 2-2 start when considering they were ranked #16 in the preseason polls. They will be facing a tough task on Saturday on the road at #4 Penn State. However, the Hoosiers are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Nittany Lions including last season’s thrilling 36-35 win at home. Their 2 SU losses to the Nittany Lions came by narrow margins of 5 and 7 points in games they were a double-digit underdog on each occasion. Penn State has a couple of quality wins thus far over Wisconsin 16-10 and Auburn 28-20. Here’s the kicker, up next for Penn State is a road game at #5 Iowa (5-0). This has all the earmarks of a flat spot for Penn State and a much closer game than most will anticipate. Bet Indiana plus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Baylor +4.0 (5*) Oklahoma State enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked 19th in the country. However, their 4 wins have come by a combined 24 points or an average victory margin of 6.0 points per contest. #21 Baylor is also 4-0 and coming off an upset win over Iowa State as a 7.0-point home underdog. Baylor is allowing just 15.8 points and 290.3 yards per game. This 2021 version Oklahoma State football isn’t as talented or dynamic offensively as they’ve been in recent years. This game will go right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever to see Baylor pull off an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and will graciously accept the points being afforded to me. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-02-21 | Duke v. North Carolina -19.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Duke @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: North Carolina -19.5 (5*) For starters we have a North Carolina team that’s 2-2 as a 20.0-point favorite over a 3-1 opponent (Duke). That speaks volumes to me and especially so in a huge rivalry game. North Carolina was shocked last week as a 14.5-point road favorite during a 45-22 road loss to Georgia Tech. The last time the Tar Heels were upset was in their season opener at Virginia Tech. They followed that up with 2 home blowout wins over Georgia State 59-0 and Virginia 59-39. In which they combined for 1306 yards of total offense. I look for another huge offensive performance for North Carolina on Saturday against a Duke defense that allowed 33 points and 507 yards to an immensely weak Kansas team. Duke enters this game on a 3-game win streak after being upset in their season opener at Charlotte. Nonetheless, those wins came over the likes of North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas. Northwestern and Kansas are a combined 0-5 versus FBS opponents this season, and North Carolina A&T (1-2) who plays at the FCS level. Not exactly the who’s who of college football. Bet North Carolina minus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Texas v. TCU +4.5 | 32-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Texas @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU +4.5 (5*) I put this one in the line doesn’t make sense category. When that occurs my mind automatically shifts to a contrarian mindset and a bookmaker’s mentality. We have a Texas team that’s 3-1 and their only loss came at #8 Arkansas. The Longhorns were dominant in each of the last 2 weeks with wins over Texas Tech 70-35 and 58-0 versus Rice. Conversely TCU is coming off an upset loss to SMU in a game they were a 9.0-point home favorite. The week before that the Horned Frogs barely escaped with a 2-point win over California while failing to cover as a 12.0-point home favorite. Furthermore, Texas will be playing with revenge stemming from losses to TCU in each of the past 2 season. The sports books just aren’t that generous. Any conference home team (TCU) with a winning record, and they’re facing an opponent (Texas) with a win percentage of .600 to .800 who coming off a conference win by 10 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 59-16 (78.7%) straight up since 2018. This college football straight up betting algorithm supports the underdog in this matchup and makes this wagering angle far more significant. Bet on TCU plus the points. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Maryland 8:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Maryland +3.5 (5*) So let me get this right, we have the #5 ranked team (Iowa) in the country as just a 3.5-point favorite over an unranked opponent. Which means if the game was being played in Iowa City the #5 Hawkeyes would be only be about a 9.5-point favorite. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers compared to the pollsters. Based on that previous statement, the sportsbooks are begging you to take the highly ranked team as a short favorite over their unheralded opponent. By the way, despite being unranked, Maryland is 4-0 and averaging more than 500 yards of total offense per game. The Terrapins will be facing a tough task against an Iowa defense which is allowing only 11.0 points and 271.5 yards per game. However, the Iowa offense leaves much to be desired while averaging a mere 293.0 yards per game. Bet Maryland plus the points. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 497-498 Play On: Eagles +3.5 (5*) The Eagles are 1-1 but have looked better than I anticipated. They’ve exhibited a perfect balanced offensive attack that has averaged exactly 30 runs and 30 passes per contest while amassing 383.0 yards per game while doing so. There’s no denying when Dak Prescott is healthy the Dallas becomes an offensive juggernaut in most instances. However, they will be facing an Eagles defense that through 2 games is only allowing 11.0 points and 283.0 yards per contest. Similar to recent seasons, the Dallas defense continues to be their enigma as they surrendered over 400 yards during each of their first 2 games of the season. Dallas will finally play their home opener after beginning the season with a pair of road games. The Cowboys lost at Tampa Bay 31-29, and then they bounced back last week with a 20-17 win over the Chargers. Conversely, Philadelphia is coming off a 17-11 home loss to San Francisco which evened their record at 1-1. Since 206, NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 that’s playing in Game 2 through 6, and their last 2 contests were decided by 3 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Eagles) coming off a SU loss by 2 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-7 SU&ATS. The home favorites were outscored in those 7 losses by an average of 6.0 points per game. Bet the Eagles plus the points. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 30-28 | Loss | -111 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 495-496 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (5*) I am sure the Packers will be a public play since they were able to view them walloping Detroit 35-17 on the Monday night televised game. However, we must keep in mind, that’s a pitiful Detroit team which has allowed an average of 38 points per game thus far. With that said, despite the Packers putting up 35 points last week they only were able to amass 323 yards of total offense. We mustn’t forget, this is also a Packers team that lost their season opener 38-3 to New Orleans and only was able to muster 322 yards of total offense. San Francisco is coming of road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia in their first 2 games. The 49ers will also be out to revenge a 34-17 home loss to Green Bay last season in a game they entered ravaged by injuries. I look for the 49ers be mentally and physically sharp in their home opener against what I deem to be an overrated team. Bet the 49ers minus the points. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 493-494 Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*) Talk about a tough luck team, Minnesota has opened the season with a pair of road losses that came by a combined 4 points. Even worse the fact they lost both games via opponent’s winning field goals in the last play of each of those contests. Now they’ll be facing a Seattle team that blew a 14-point 2nd half lead in their home opener last week in a 33-30 loss to Tennessee. Okay so here’s the caveat if you were contemplating Seattle. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have gone 27-9 (.750) straight up in their last 36 non-division home games and that includes 26-11 (70.3%) ATS. Furthermore, under Zimmer, Minnesota has gone 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS following 2 straight losses when facing a non-division opponent and their previous contest was versus a non-division opponent. Bet Minnesota plus the small number. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*) Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-26-21 | Saints +3 v. Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Saints @ Patriots 1:00 ET Game# 477-478 Play On: New Orleans +3.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming off a 25-6 road win over an atrocious Jets team. They were beneficiaries of 4 interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Zack Wilson which came on his first 10 attempts of the day. The New Orleans defense has been great against the run thus far while allowing only 66 rushing yards per contest and a mere 2.6 yards per attempt. The Patriots rookie quarterback Matt Jones is going to have to make some big plays in the passing game because the New Orleans defense is likely to stymie any attempt at running the ball effectively on a consistent basis. I love our chances if that scenario plays out like I believe it will. New Orleans is coming off an embarrassing 26-7 loss at Carolina last week. However, that was a very unsettling situation for the Saints who were without 8 assistant coaches due to COVID protocols. I look for them to resemble the team we saw in their opening week 38-3 thrashing of the Green Bay Packers. Besides, it’s never a bad idea to bet on the New Orleans Saints following a loss since Sean Payton became their head coach. Since 2008, and all with their current head coach, New Orleans is 47-25 SU&ATS (65.2%) following a loss. Furthermore, if those contests were played before Game 11 of the season, and the Saints allowed 25 points or more in those previous losses, they improved to 15-2 ATS (88.2%) and 13-4 during that identical timeframe. Bet the Saints plus the small number. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State -14 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Arizona State -14.0 (5*) #19 Arizona is coming off a 27-17 upset loss at #15 BYU (3-0). So, the Sun Devils figure to be in a sour mood against a Colorado team which has looked inept offensively to start the season. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with their only win coming versus Northern Colorado. In their only 2 games against FBS opponents they lost 10-7 to Texas A&M and 30-0 at home versus Minnesota. Additionally, they only had 260 yards of total offense versus Texas A&M and an abysmal 63 yards against Minnesota. By the way, through their first 3 games, the Sun Devils defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 246.7 yards per game. The Sun Devils offense has topped the 400 yards of total offense barrier in all 3 games. Bet on Arizona State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oklahoma -17.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, West Virginia has gone a perfect 7-0 at home and that includes last week’s win over then #15 Virginia Tech. However, during that identical time span, they went 0-5 on the road and that includes a season opening 30-24 loss at Maryland. The critics have been harsh on #4 Oklahoma despite their 3-0 record. The basis behind those negative remarks revolves around the Sooners only 2 games played against FBS opponents. They narrowly escaped in their season opener at home with 40-35 win over Tulane in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Then last week they entertained Nebraska (1-2) and barely got by with a 23-16 win as a 22.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, since 2014, Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS versus West Virginia with an average victory margin of 21.5 points per game. Oklahoma is also +2 in the turnover department while West Virginia is a dismal -6 throughout their first 2 games. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +2 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Florida State 3:30 Game# 267-268 Play On: Florida State +2.0 (5*) Florida State is 0-3 for the first time since 1976, and that includes a home loss 2 weeks ago to Jacksonville State who plays at the FCS level. The Seminoles were plagued by an alarmingly high 10 turnovers during those 3 defeats and 6 of those came in last week’s 35-14 loss at Wake Forest. Yet, they find themselves as just a 2.0-point underdog versus a Louisville team that just upset Central Florida in a nationally televised home game. After losing both home games to start the season and each by a narrow 3-point margin, I look for Florida State to roar back with a vengeance against a Louisville team that may potentially be overconfident and not mentally sharp. Bet on Florida State plus the small number. |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -7 v. Baylor | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Baylor 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) Baylor is off to a fast 3-0 start but finds itself a touchdown home underdog against 2-1 Iowa State. We must keep in mind Iowa State’s lone defeat came against #6 Iowa in a game they beat themselves. The Cyclones outgained Iowa in that contest 339-173 but turned the ball over 4 times while not forcing any giveaways. Iowa State rebounded during last week’s 48-3 road win at UNLV. Through its first 3 contests, the Iowa State defense is allowing 13.3 points and 192.7 yards per game, and all those outings went under the total. Baylor’s 3 wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Not exactly a killer schedule. Any college football road favorite of 3.5-10.0 that is coming off 3 consecutive games going under the total, and they’re allowing 14.0 points or fewer per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 1992. The average line in those 39 contests was 6.2 and the average victory margin was 16.6 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | 37-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Virginia 9:36 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Virginia -4.0 (5*) Wake Forest has started 3-0 but their wins have come over Norfolk State (FCS team), Florida State (0-3), and Old Dominion (1-2). Additionally, all 3 of those wins occurred at home. So, they haven’t exactly played a killer schedule thus far, and Virginia will unequivocally be their toughest test to this point. The Demon Deacons have also been beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential thus far. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 loss at North Carolina. The Virginia defense was embarrassed in that contest while allowing North Carolina to rack up 699 yards of total offense. Wake Forest has neither the dynamic passing game that North Carolina possesses, nor do they have a quarterback the caliber of Sam Howell. I also look for Virginia’s defense to bounce back with a more determined effort on Friday. On a positive note, the Virginia passing game has been terrific through their first 3 games while averaging a robust 438 yards per contest. The Cavaliers are also averaging 41.3 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2018 season, Virginia has gone 20-2 straight up at home, and that includes a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Virginia minus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 295-296 Play On: Ravens +4.0 (5*) Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 77-27 (.740) in regular season home games. Regardless of their numerous injury losses they’ve endured thus far, that strong home field advantage must be considered, and especially so as more than a field goal underdog. Furthermore, the Ravens are 50-14 (.781) in their last 64 regular season home games when facing a non-division opponent. Baltimore is also 5-0 in their last 5 home openers and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.4 points per game. One more item of note, under Harbaugh Baltimore is 12-1 straight up and 11-2 ATS in home games during the season’s first 2 weeks. I know it’s a tough ask to bet against the Chiefs in any situation, but I’m supremely confident this is a optimum betting situation to do so. The Chiefs are only 3-3 straight up and 0-3-3 ATS in their last 6 as an away favorite of 4.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Kansas City was extremely fortunate to beat Cleveland 33-29 in their home opener last Sunday in a game they failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. Since 2009, any non-division home underdog of 4.5 or less (Ravens) that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss in which it allowed 14 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 22-6 ATS (78.6%) and they won 21 of those 28 contests straight up. Bet on the Ravens plus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 293-294 Play On: Chargers -3.0 (5*) In what should be an entertaining game to watch, it will come down to which defense can get the most stops at crucial moments of the contest. With that being said, I have way more confidence in the Chargers ability to do so as opposed to Dallas’ stop unit. The Cowboys did give defending world champion Tampa Bay all they can handle in their season opening 31-29 road loss while easily covering as an 8.0-point underdog. With Dak Prescott back at quarterback and his dynamic trio of wide receivers, the Cowboys potent offense racked up 391 yards through the air. However, they also allowed Tampa Bay to amass 431 yards of total offense and that includes 379 coming via their passing game. Somehow the Cowboys managed to lose this game despite having 451 yards of total offense and being a +3 in the turnover department. A poor defense this season will once again plague the Cowboys ability to win on a consistent basis. The Chargers are coming off an impressive 26-16 road win at Washington last Sunday. They held Washington to a mere 259 yards while also accumulating a time of possession edge of 36:03 to 23:57. Justin Herbert showed no signs of a sophomore jinx as he was 31-47 for 334 yards and averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per passing attempt against a formidable Washington defense. Dating back to last season, the Chargers have won 5 straight games. Bet on the Chargers minus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Vikings +3.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off a surprising 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. However, they have responded well in a small sample size of betting situations exactly like this one under head coach Mike Zimmer. Since Zimmer has been their head coach, the Vikings are 4-0 SU&ATS as a non-division road underdog of 6.0 or less when coming off a non-division loss by 13 points or fewer. Conversely, since 2018, Arizona is 0-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite when facing an opponent coming off a loss and they were outscored by an average of 7.7 points per game. Furthermore, public betting will certainly side with the Cardinals in this one following their 38-13 road win as a 3.0-point underdog at Tennessee last week. It’s rarely that easy and this will be a prime example of such. Any NFL home favorite of 5.0 or less (Cardinals) playing in Game 2 or 3 of their season, and they’re coming off an away win by 25 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-10 ATS since 1988. The away underdogs also won 7 of those 10 contests straight up. This clearly indicates to me that you shouldn’t overreact to a reasonably sized home favorite coming off a convincing road win in early season action. Bet on the Vikings plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Fresno State +11 v. UCLA | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ UCLA 10:45 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Fresno State +11.5 (10*) UCLA is coming off a huge 38-27 upset win at home over LSU which has catapulted them to a #13 national ranking. Following Saturday’s non-conference game versus Fresno, the Bruins have their PAC-12 opener versus Stanford up next. This has the earmarks of a flat spot for a UCLA program doesn’t possess much if any experience of handling success under current head coach Chip Kelly. If you think Fresno State is going to be intimidated on the road against #13 UCLA, then think again. The Bulldogs already traveled to #4 Oregon 2 weeks ago and that contest was tied 21-21 into the 4th quarter before they fell short in a 31-24. Nonetheless, they easily covered that game as an 18.0-point underdog. That’s the same Oregon team that went to then #2 Ohio State last week and knocked them off which ended the Buckeyes 22-game home winning streak. Throughout their first 3 game, the Fresno State defense is allowing a mere 3.6 yards per play. Conversely, their offense has been efficient led by unheralded quarterback Jake Haener who has completed 73.6% of his passes while throwing for 1009 yards and 8 touchdowns against 0 interceptions through their first 3 contests. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Charlotte +5 v. Georgia State | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Georgia State 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Charlotte +5.0 (5*) Georgia State has started the season with blowout losses to Army 43-10 and North Carolina 59-17. The failed to cover on each occasion and by a combined 52.0 points. They were also outgained in total yards those 2 contests by a combined 963-448. Charlotte opened the season with an upset win over Duke 31-28. They followed that up with an easy 38-14 win over Gardner Webb and covered as a 23.5-point favorite. They averaged 477.0 yards of total offense in those victories. Charlotte will have success running the ball against Georgia State and that will be the key to us covering. Bet on Charlotte plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Utah v. San Diego State +8.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: San Diego State +8.5 (5*) San Diego State is coming off a 38-14 blowout win at Arizona in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s the same Arizona team that lost by 5 of BYU in their season opener. Lastly, BYU defeated Utah 26-17 last Saturday as a 7.0-point home underdog in a bitter in state rivalry game. This also presents a rare opportunity for San Diego State (2-0) to defeat PAC-12 teams in consecutive weeks. Any college football home team (San Diego State) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Utah) coming off a road SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 25.0 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 36-3 (92.3%) straight up since 2017. That straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the better than 1 touchdown home underdog in this matchup. By the way, those home teams were also 31-6-2 ATS in those games as well. Bet on San Diego State plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4 | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This opening line was extremely fishing with #8 Cincinnati being installed as just a 3-point favorite at Indiana. Just as I expected, public bettors were lured in by the sportsbooks bait and jumped all over the nationally ranked Bobcats. Thus, the number at the time of this writing was either 3.5 or 4.0 depending on where you look. Taking the road favorite in this spot has sucker play written all over it. Cincinnati sleepwalked through the 1st half of their home game last week against an FCS team Murray State, and it resulted in a 7-7 tie at intermission. Ultimately Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half to prevail 42-7 while failing to cover as a 36.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, it was a less than inspiring performance and they were greatly benefitted by 4 Murray State turnovers. Now they’ll face an Indiana team that was blown out 34-6 in their season opener at #5 Iowa. So why shouldn’t we expect a similar result versus the 8th ranked Bobcats? Because it’s never that easy my friends. Furthermore, Cincinnati could be caught looking past Saturday to next week’s trip to South Bend where they’ll take on #10 Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that Indiana began the season ranked #16 and with high hopes of being a Big 10 sleeper. An upset of Cincinnati would surely get them back into the Top 25, not to mention being a major confidence booster. Additionally, the 34-6 final score at Iowa was a bit askew since the Hawkeyes returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 233 yards of total offense. That was the same Iowa team that won at #9 Iowa State last week as a 4.0-point underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. By the way, Indiana bounced back with a 56-14 blowout win over Idaho. Any non-conference college football home team (Indiana) that coming off a win by 35 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Cincinnati) who allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 51-11 (82.2%) straight up since 2012. This straight up betting angle takes on added value because it supports the home underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Braves (Anderson) @ Giants (Webb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Giants -1.5 (+128) (5*) The sharps are betting the over in this game but that’s not the way I am going to go. However, what I took away from that betting pattern is they must think most of the offensive production is going to come from San Francisco based on this starting pitching matchup. After all, the Giants Logan Webb has gone a perfect 9-0 in his home team starts this season with an outstanding 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Webb has also gone 12-1 in his team starts this year as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and the Giants outscored the opposition by an average of 2.4 runs per game. By the way, speaking of the Giants expected to provide the bulk of scoring in this matchup, they have averaged a robust 7.4 runs scored per game while smacking 15 home runs throughout their previous 7 outings. The Giants bullpen has also performed extremely well during that 7-game span while collecting a staff 2.83 ERA. The Giants will be facing right-handed starter Ian Anderson tonight. The Giants are a highly profitable 69-33 (.676) against right-handed starting pitchers this season. In further regards to Ian Anderson, he has an uninspiring 5.63 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over his last 4 starts. Quite frankly, Anderson is very fortunate to not have a much higher ERA through that period considering his massive WHIP. Bet on the Giants for a run-line wager. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Las Vegas 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Las Vegas +4.0 (5*) The Raiders are 15-17 during the past 2 seasons. However, despite that mediocrity NFL betting history has shown home underdogs in their season openers on Monday night have been extremely profitable. Any Monday night home underdog of 5.5 or less that’s playing in their season opener, and they won 10 or more of its last 32 games, resulted in those home dogs going 15-1 (93.7%) ATS since 1983. Those home dogs also won 11 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on Las Vegas plus the points |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*) I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team. On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Washington @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Washington +7.0 (5*) Michigan figures to be a heavily bet side in this matchup because bettors tend to remember what happened the week before, and seldom look at any other factor. Washington was shocked last week in a 13-7 loss to Montana in a game they were a 22.0-point home favorite. If there’s such a thing of a team looking past their season and home opener, then Washington was a text back example of such. Conversely, Michigan is coming off an impressive 47-14 blowout win over Western Michigan, and easily covered as a 16.0-point home favorite. Wolverine fans were ecstatic with the performance of their offense that racked up 551 total yards. However, that was against a team that plays in a conference (MAC) where defense has historically been an afterthought, and high scoring games occur in regularity. Washington’s defense will keep them in the game, and their offense will do enough to stay within the number, and possibly even pull off an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the points afforded to me. Bet on Washington plus the points. |
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09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5 | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Tampa Bay -7.5 (5*) Dallas allowed 33 points or more in 8 of their 16 games last season. I am not seeing any evidence on paper at least that the Cowboys defense will be vastly improved heading into this season. Surely not enough to predict they will slow down an explosive offense like Tampa Bay and especially so on the road. Additionally, the Tampa Bay defensive front figures to give an average at best Dallas offensive line fits, and especially without their outstanding guard Zack Martin being sidelined after testing positive for COVID. The defending Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a season in which they went 15-5 which includes the playoffs and Super Bowl. They will be facing a Dallas team that went a disappointing 6-10 year. Since 2006, NFL home pick/favorites playing their season opener on a Thursday night that won between 13 and 16 games the year before have gone 10- straight up and 7-1-2 ATS. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 13.0 points per game. Additionally, if those home teams were facing an opponent that won 10 or fewer regular season games the season before, the betting angle improves to 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.8 points per contest. If your line is indeed 7.5, I would suggest paying the extra juice and buying it down to the key number of 7.0. Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Florida State 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Florida State +7.0 (5*) It will being an emotional night in Tallahassee. Not only will it be the Seminoles home opener, but they’ll be honoring the late great Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden who recently passed away. Additionally, it will mark the return of former Central Florida quarterback Mackenzie Milton who’s now a Florida State Seminole. Milton hasn’t played since sustaining a gruesome injury 3 years ago but will be under center tonight. If Milton can stay healthy and is anywhere near as good as he was as in his freshmen year at Central Florida, the Seminoles experienced offense will take a huge step forward and starting with tonight. I think Notre Dame will be very good once again this season. However, their current #9 national ranking is more about brand name and last year’s run to the College Football Playoffs. The Fighting Irish have to replace 13 starters from last year’s senior laden team and will go through some early growing pains. I am not sold on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan who was named the starter. Coan doesn’t have the mobility nor is as good a passer as recently departed 3-year starter Ian Book. Bet on Florida State plus the points. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*) Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette. |
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09-04-21 | Indiana +4 v. Iowa | 6-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This is an Indiana team that went 6-2 last season with their lone defeats coming by 7 at #2 Ohio State and by 6 to Ole Miss in a bowl game played without star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Hoosiers return 17 starters from that squad which includes a healthy Penix. The Hoosiers held 5 of their 7 Big 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer a season ago. They are led Big 10 and AFCA National coach of the year Tom Allen who has guided Indiana to a combined 14-7 record the past 2 seasons and includes 6-1 in the Big 10 a year ago. #17 Indiana will be more than up to the task when they travel to Iowa City on Saturday to take on the #18 Hawkeyes. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Virginia Tech +5.5 (5*) Virginia Tech will be out to revenge last season’s 56-45 loss at North Carolina in a game they failed to cover as a short 3.0-point underdog. The Hokies had absolutely no answer against a supremely talented North Carolina offense. However, the Tar Heels lost 4 key skill position players that will be playing in the NFL this season. Granted North Carolina returns Heisman Trophy Award candidate and star quarterback Sam Howell. But he will be depending on several newcomers to replace the talented cast of characters previously mention. Furthermore, although North Carolina returns 10 defensive starters, they were a stop unit which allowed 41 points or more on 4 separate occasions last year. The 15 returning starters that return for Virginia Tech will have a bad taste in their mouth after having been part of the first Hokies team to miss a bowl game in 28 years. Since 2018, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home underdog of 9.5 or less and averaged 37.7 points scored per game while doing so. Any college football Game 1 conference home underdog of 3.0 to 8.0 that’s playing with revenge has gone 9-0 ATS since 2011. As a matter of fact, 7 of those situations occurred last season and if those teams were a dog of 5.0 to 8.0 they went 3-0 straight up. Bet on Virginia Tech plus the points. |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina +10 v. Appalachian State | 19-33 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State 7:30 PM ET Game# 139-140 Play On: East Carolina +10.0 (5*) The Appalachian State returns 7 players on an offense that averaged 34 points and 450 yards per game last season. However, they will have a new quarterback. Former Clemson and Duke quarterback Chase Brice is slated to be under center for the Mountaineers. Brice did throw for over 2100 yards last year, but he had a horrible 10/15 touchdown to interception ratio while completing an uninspiring 54.2% of his passes. Despite being a highly rated and sought after quarterback coming out of high school, Brice hasn’t come close to living up to his perceived potential. East Carolina returns 20 starters from a team that went 3-6 last season. However, they did average a robust 30 points scored per game while doing so. They will be led once again by junior quarterback Holton Ahlers. All Ahlers has done is account for 7,093 career passing yard and 51 touchdown passes versus 22 interceptions. Ahlers also has amassed 1,060 career rushing yards and ran for 13 touchdowns as well. With 10 offensive returning starter, I look for East Carolina to provide us with a puncher’s chance in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nonetheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points. In what may end up being a seesaw affair, bet on East Carolina plus the number. |
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09-01-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Braves (Fried) @ Dodgers (Scherzer) 10:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Atlanta +1.5 (-115) (10*) Max Scherzer has paid huge dividends for the Dodgers since coming over from Washington at the trade deadline. However, Scherzer has made 2 starts since last year versus Atlanta including 1 in 2021 and had a large 7.94 ERA while allowing 6 home runs during 11 1/3 innings pitched during those outings. Granted the Dodgers are currently red-hot, but it’s been much to do with their pitching as opposed to their perceived offensive prowess. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers have averaged 3.5 runs scored and 6.4 hits per game throughout their last 12 outings. Max Fried is finally healthy and it shows. During his last 6 starts Fried has compiled an excellent 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while walking only 4 batters in 40.0 innings pitched. Since the start of last season, Fried has made 3 starts versus the Dodgers and posted a sparkling 2.41 ERA. Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-15 (.732) in their last 56 games with Max Fried as their starting pitcher. Bet the Braves +1.5 on the run-line. |
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08-30-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Braves (Smyly) @ Dodgers (Urias) 10:10 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: Braves +1.5 (-108) (5*) This current active roster of the Dodgers has gone a lackluster 14-60 (.233 BA) in their career at bats against Braves starter Drew Smyly. The usually powerful batting order of the Dodgers has struggled of late. Specifically speaking, they are averaging 3.3 runs scored per game and have a miserable .176 team batting average over the past 7 games. Southpaw Julio Urias has been solid all season for the Dodgers. Nevertheless, he will be facing an Atlanta team that has gone 22-14 versus lefthanded starter in 2021 while averaging 6.0 runs scored per game and smashing 56 home runs. There is an ample amount of betting value on the Braves as a money line underdog in this matchup. However, since we are being offered such a cheap price to take them as a run-line underdog it’s worth going that route instead. The Braves enter today on a terrific 13-game road winning streak. The current total on this game is 9.0. Since the start of last season, Drew Smyly has gone a perfect 8-0 in his road team starts when there’s been a total of 8.5 to 10.0. That basically tells me that Smyly has fared very well on the road when not be opposed by an opponent’s ace. Bet the Braves on the run-line. |
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08-30-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Padres (Paddack) @ Diamondbacks (Gilbert) 9:40 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Diamondbacks +1.5 (+104) (5*) Chris Paddack has struggled in 3 starts versus Arizona this season while recoding a large 7.71 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has an uninspiring 5.60 ERA over their last 7 games while amassing an alarmingly high 35 1/3 innings pitched. The Padres bats have been silent during that identical 7-game stretch after having averaged a paltry 2.9 runs scored per outing and registering an abysmal .161 team batting average. It’s no wonder that San Diego is a terrible 3-13 during their previous 16 games. The Arizona starter Tyler Gilbert has made 3 starts this season an accounted himself extremely well. Especially considering one of those outing was a n-hitter he tossed at San Diego. Since 2019, Arizona has gone a profitable 14-5 at home versus San Diego and that includes 4-2 this season. Arizona has gone 12-6 in their last 18 at home and that includes 6-1 if they were a money line underdog. Bet the Diamondbacks on the run-line. |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Cleveland 8:00 PM ET Game# 133-134 Play On: Atlanta +6.0 I am always looking to play on sizable underdogs during NFL Preseason action. Why is that? Well, for starters, preseason underdogs of 6.0 or greater have gone 155-111 (58.3%) ATS since 1988. That’s without looking at any other query within that betting angle. Atlanta has looked horrible during its first 2 preseason games having lost by scores of 23-3 against Tennessee and 37-17 at Miami. Any NFL Preseason underdog of 5.5 or greater (Atlanta) who’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they scored 17 points or fewer on both occasions, and their previous defeated came by 13 points or more, those sizable underdogs have gone 17-1 ATS (94.4%) since 1992. Furthermore, those underdogs also went 11-7 straight up in those contests. Bet on Atlanta plus the points. |
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08-29-21 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +4.5 | 34-14 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Dallas +4.5 This will be a preseason battle of winless teams. Dallas is coming off a 20-14 home loss to Houston as a home favorite of -3.5 which dropped their preseason record to 0-3. Jacksonville is coming off losses to New Orleans and Cleveland. Any NFL preseason underdog that’s coming off a straight up favorite loss in which they allowed 26 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent who’s coming off 2 straight losses, resulted in those underdogs going 12-0 ATS since 2005. Those underdogs also won 9 of those 12 contests straight up. Bet on Dallas plus the points. |
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08-28-21 | Rams +9.5 v. Broncos | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Denver 9:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: LA Rams +9.5 This is a huge point-spread by NFL Preseason standards. How rare is a line this high in the NFL preseason? How about it has occurred only 23 times since 1983 and the underdog went 17-6 (73.9%) ATS in those games. The Rams will be playing their first preseason away game after opening with 2 straight at home. Los Angles is coming off last week’s narrow 17-16 loss to Las Vegas. Any NFL preseason away team that is coming off 2 straight at home, and their previous game was a loss in which they scored 23 points or fewer, resulted in those teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2015, and won by an average of 8.9 points per contest. This betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the substantial underdog in this matchup. Bet the Rams plus the points. |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Matz) @ Tigers (Manning) 7:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Blue Jays -1.5 (-113) (5*) The Tigers Matt Manning has exhibited shaky form over his last 5 starts with a lofty 6.04 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. As a matter of fact, Manning has an uninspiring 5.90 ERA during 11 starts for the 2021 season. He will be facing a Toronto team that since 2019 has gone an extremely profitable 13-1 on the road when facing starting pitchers with an ERA of 5.90 or worse, and has a decisive run per game differential of +4.5. Speaking of Toronto, they will go with veteran southpaw Steven Matz who has shown good form over his last 4 starts while compiling an excellent 1.25 ERA. The Toronto bullpen has a shiny 2.49 ERA and 1.15 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. Bet the Blue Jays as a run-line favorite. |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ New Orleans 8:00 PM ET Game# 431-432 Play On: Jacksonville +4.0 Jacksonville is coming off a 23-13 to loss to Carolina in a game they closed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, New Orleans is coming off a 17-14 loss at Baltimore in a game they committed an alarmingly high 6 turnovers. Additionally, since 2014, New Orleans is 9-16 (36%) ATS during preseason games and all with current head coach Sean Payton. Any NFL preseason underdog that’s coming off a straight up favorite loss by 19 points or fewer, and they scored 14 points or less in that contest, versus a winless opponent coming off a road loss, resulted in those preseason underdogs going a perfect 16-0 ATS since 2005. The underdog also won 15 of those 16 contests straight up. Bet on Jacksonville plus the points. |
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08-21-21 | Raiders v. Rams +6.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Las Vegas @ LA Rams 10:00 PM ET Game# 423-424 Play On: Rams +6.5 For starters, since 1988, NFL preseason underdogs of 6.5 or greater are 157-115 (57.7%) ATS. That includes home underdogs of 6.5 or more going 13-4 (76.5%) since 1992. The Rams are coming off a 13-6 loss to the Chargers in their preseason opener. Las Vegas was a 20-7 home winner over Seattle last week. Any NFL preseason underdog of 2.0 or greater (Rams) that’s coming off a game in which they scored and allowed 14 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Las Vegas) coming off a win by 10 points or more, resulted in those underdogs going 19-3 ATS (19-3 (86.2%) ATS since 1992. Those underdogs also won 13 of those 22 games straight up. Additionally, under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 straight up in their 2nd preseason game. Bet on the Rams plus the points. |
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08-21-21 | Texans +4 v. Cowboys | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Houston @ Dallas 8:00 PM ET Game# 419-420 Play On: Houston +4.0 Houston is coming off a 26-7 win at Green Bay in their season opener. Conversely, Dallas has started the 2021 preseason with 2 losses and the latest of which was 19-16 at Arizona. The Cowboys are now 8-22 straight up and 7-22-3 ATS during their previous 30 preseason games. Any NFL preseason away underdog that’s coming off a game in which they scored 16 points or more, versus an opponent that’s winless and is coming off 2 straight losses, and that opponent scored 16 points or fewer in their previous contest, resulted in those away underdogs going 16-2 (88.9%) since 2005. Those away underdogs also won 14 of those 18 games straight up. Bet on Houston plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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08-21-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Steelers | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show | |
Lions @ Steelers 7:30 PM ET Game# 415-416 Play On: Lions +6.5 Pittsburgh is coming off 24-16 win at Philadelphia in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach of the Steelers in 2007, his teams have gone 0-3 SU&ATS as a favorite following a straight up win as an underdog. Detroit is coming off a 16-15 loss as a home favorite of -2.0 versus Buffalo. Any winless NFL preseason away underdog of 6.5 or less that’s coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 27 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off an ATS cover by 20.0 in which they scored 14 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 33-7 ATS (82.5%) since 1992. Those away underdogs also won 27 of those 40 contests straight up. Bet on Detroit plus the points. |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +3 | 17-10 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Arizona 8:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Arizona +3.0 Both teams are coming off wins in last week’s opening preseason games and by identical scores of 19-16. Kansas City earned that victory at San Francisco. Since 2017, Andy Reid’s team is 0-3 SU&ATS on the road during the preseason following a win and were outscored by an average of 10.0 points per game. Any NFL preseason underdog of 3.0 or less (Arizona) that’s coming off a win by 6 points or fewer, resulted in those underdogs going 28-5 ATS (84.8%) since 2015. Those underdogs also went 26-7 straight up during those contests. If the favorite was coming off a win, the underdogs improved to 17-2 ATS and 16-3 straight up. Bet on Arizona plus the small number. |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Eagles 7:30 PM ET Game# 401-402 Play On: Eagles +1.5 Since 2011, and all under current head coach Bill Belichick, New England has gone 0-7 ATS and 1-6 straight up as a road favorite. Philadelphia lost their preseason opener last week to Pittsburgh 24-16 in a game they closed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Since 2005, any NFL preseason pick or dog of 3.0 or less that’s coming off a home favorite straight up loss in which they scored 14 points or more, resulted in those teams going 7-0 ATS. Those teams also won 6 of those 7 games straight up. Bet on the Eagles as a pick or underdog. |
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08-17-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Nationals | 6-12 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Manoah) @ Nationals (Fedde) 7:05 PM ET Game# 931-932 Play On: Blue Jays -1.5 (-117) (5*) The Nationals have lost their last 7 and 12 of its previous 13 games. Washington has also gone an abysmal 4-18 this season as a money line home underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by an average of 2.3 runs per game. The Nationals Erick Fedde has displayed poor form over his last 4 starts while compiling a lofty 6.05 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Fedde doesn’t figure to get much help from a Washington bullpen that throughout their previous 7 games has a 5.74 ERA and surrendered 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings over its last 7 games. Toronto has gone an extremely profitable 14-4 versus National League teams this season while outscoring them by an average of 1.9 runs per game. Rookie Alek Manoah has gone 8-3 in his team starts this season with an impressive 2.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Manoah has exhibited excellent from during his previous 3 starts while recording a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP thru 18 2/3 innings pitched. Bet the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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08-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
Brewers (Lauer) @ Pirates (Peters) 1:05 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (-118) (5*) Dillon Peters makes his first start of the season after recently being called up from the minors. Peters has an uninspiring 5.83 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 24 career MLB starts. Peters has also allowed 19 home runs in just 53 1/3 innings pitched in AAA ball this year. That’s not good news since he will be facing a Brewers team that has smacked 14 homers over their previous 7 games and compiled an extremely impressive .978 OPS while doing so. Peters has a massive 12.95 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in 2 career starts versus Milwaukee. The Pirates bullpen have a lofty 6.26 ERA and 1.57 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. Pittsburgh will be facing lefthanded starter Eric Lauer today. The Pirates are 7-23 versus lefty starters this season and have been outscored by an average of 2.8 runs per game. Speaking of Eric Lauer, he has a microscopic 0.64 ERA during his previous 5 starts. He’s also 2-0 versus Pittsburgh this year with a brilliant 0.79 ERA. Milwaukee is a terrific 39-20 in road games this season and 37-19 versus fellow NL Central opponents. Conversely, Pittsburgh is an abysmal 13-39 versus NL Central teams in 2021 and has also dropped 9 of their 10 games overall. Bet the Brewers for a run-line wager. |
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08-14-21 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 21 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Baltimore 7:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Baltimore -2.5 You simply don’t bet against John Harbaugh coached Ravens teams. Since 2009 and all under Harbaugh, Baltimore has gone 36-9 (.800) straight up and 34-11 (75.6%) ATS in preseason games. Furthermore, since 2016, Baltimore is 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS during their preseason schedule. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that John Harbaugh puts an emphasis on winning during preseason action and has been blessed with quality depth throughout his tenure. One more thing, since Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, Baltimore has gone 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in preseason openers and that includes winning their last 8 in that exact situation. Conversely, since 2015 and all under head coach Sean Payton, New Orleans is a dismal 5-12 SU&ATS in preseason games and includes 1-4 SU&ATS in preseason openers. Bet on Baltimore minus the small number. |
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08-14-21 | Broncos v. Vikings +2.5 | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 59 m | Show | |
Denver @ Minnesota 4:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Minnesota +2.5 Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach of Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have gone 20-5 straight up in preseason games. Furthermore, Minnesota has an unblemished mark of 6-0 SU&ATS in preseason openers under Zimmer and won by 9.2 points per game. These results become even more relevand since the sportsbooks have made Minnesota a home underdog on Saturday afternoon. Bet on Minnesota plus the small number. |
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08-13-21 | Cowboys +2 v. Cardinals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 5 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Arizona 10:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Dallas +2.0 The Cowboys will have the advantage of already playing a game last week despite losing to Pittsburgh 16-3. Conversely, Arizona will be playing in their preseason opener. Any NFL away team playing in their 2nd preseason game and is coming off a loss in which they scored 13 points or fewer, and allowed 17 points or less, versus an opponent playing in their opening preseason game, resulted in those road teams going 11-2 (84.6%) straight up since 1989. The straight up results take on added significance since it backs the small underdog in this contest. Bet on Dallas plus the small number. |
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08-08-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Nationals (Corbin) @ Braves (Fried) 1:20 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-103) (5*) Pat Corbin is 0-3 in his team starts versus Atlanta this season with an uninspiring 5.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Despite yesterday’s win, Washington has gone just 10-21 during its last 31 games. Atlanta is coming off a gut wrenching 3-2 loss on Saturday in a game they led 2-0 headed into the 9th inning. The good news is the Braves are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 following a loss and 8 of those victories came by 2 runs or greater. Max Fried is 4-0 in his last 4 home team starts with a superb 1.44 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Furthermore, since 2019, Fried has an unblemished 13-0 team starts record in August. Bet on the Braves on the run-line. |
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08-08-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Richards) @ Blue Jays (Ryu) 1:07 PM ET Game# 967-968 Play On: Blue Jays -1.5 (-107) (5*) Boston’s Garrett Richards has been horrible of late while failing to register a quality start in his last 10 outings. Richards has made 5 starts versus Toronto this season and recorded a lofty 6.15 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. The Red Sox bats have gone silent over their last 12 games which has saw them average a pathetic 2.4 runs scored per outing. Toronto is surging just like I expected them to do after the all-star break. They enter today having won 9 of their last 11. The Blue Jays have also gone an extremely profitable 27-13 during day games this season. Toronto’s Hyun-Jin Ryuis 5-0 in his last 5 team starts with a brilliant 1.84 ERA. During his last 2 starts against Boston this season, Ryu pitched 13.0 innings of scoreless baseball while give up just 6 hits and walking none. Bet the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 116 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Marlins (Luzardo) @ Rockies (Gomber) 8:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Rockies -1.5 (+116) (10*) Miami has gone a dismal 8-21 (.270) during its last 29 road games. The Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo has a lofty 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this year in 7 starts. The Rockies Austin Gomber has been extremely good at Coors Field this season while posting a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 7 starts. Colorado has gone a highly profitable 12-2 this season as a money line favorite of -120 or greater and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 4.2 runs per game. Bet the Rockies on the run-line for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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08-05-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Giants (Wood) 3:40 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Giants -1.5 (-105) (10*) Arizona is coming off yesterday’s 7-1 loss to San Francisco. The Diamondback have gone an abysmal 0-20 in their last 20 this season following a game in which they scored 1 run or less, and they were outscored by an average margin of 3.2 runs per outing. Arizona will be facing lefty Alex Wood this afternoon. Wood has averaged 5.8 strikeouts per game in his 18 starts this season. Conversely, Arizona is an atrocious 2-38 this season when facing pitchers who average 5.0 or more strikeout per start, and they were outscored by a sizable margin of 4.0 runs per game. The Arizona bullpen has a pathetic 8.00 ERA over its last 7 games. The Giants will be facing Arizona starter Merrill Kelly today. This current Giants active roster has gone 31-for-93 against Kelly in their careers for a .333 batting average and immense .961 OPS. The Giants are an extremely profitable 49-25 when facing righthanded starters this season and 26-13 during day games. San Francisco is 12-2 this season when facing Arizona. Alex Wood is 2-0 versus Arizona this season with a more than respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. During their last 7 outing, San Francisco have averaged a lofty 6.2 runs scored per game while also cracking 13 home runs. Bet on the Giants on the run-line for a Top Play wager. |
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08-02-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Giants (DeSclafani) @ Diamondbacks (Widener) 9:40 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Giants -1.5 (-120) (10*) Taylor Widener has faced 2 of the weakest hitting teams in baseball (Texas, Pittsburgh) during his last 2 starts and was awful on both occasions. During those 2 outings he allowed 10 earned runs on 13 hits while walking 6 in just 8 1/3 innings pitched. The Arizona bullpen has compiled a lofty 5.68 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Diamondbacks are coming off yesterday’s 13-0 blowout loss to the Dodgers. Arizona is an abysmal 1-19 this season following a game in which they scored 1 run or fewer. They were outscored in those 20 occurrences by an average of 2.9 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are also a dismal 3-19 this season as a money line home underdog of +125 or greater and were outscored by an average of 3.9 runs per game. If you take away his 5 starts against the Dodgers this year, Anthony DeSclafani could possibly be in the National League Cy Young Award conversation. That’s how well he’s pitched against everyone else. Since 2016, DeSlafani ius 5-1 during his team starts versus Arizona with a brilliant 1.27 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has an impressive 1.10 WHIP this season and that includes an even better 0.89 throughout their previous 7 games. The Giants have dominated Arizona this season while winning 9 of 10 against them. Bet the Giants on the run-line for a Top Play wager. |
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07-31-21 | Indians v. White Sox -1.5 | 12-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Indians (McKenzie) @ White Sox (Keuchel) 7:10 PM ET Game# 973-974 Play On: White Sox -1.5 (+126) (5*) Triston McKenzie is 0-3 in his team starts versus Cleveland in 2021 and with a massive 10.33 ERA. The usually reliable Indians bullpen has struggled recently which is evidenced by their hefty 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Since 8/16/2020, the White Sox have gone an incredible 48-14 as a money line home favorite of -110 or more. More importantly as it pertains to this pick, the White Sox saw 40 of those 48 wins (83.3%) come by 2 runs or greater. Dallas Keuchel is 8-1 in his home team starts this season with a 3.83 ERA. The White Sox bullpen has a brilliant 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP as a staff thru its last 7 games. Bet on the White for a run-line wager. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Suns @ Bucks 9:05 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Suns +5.0 (5*) The Suns have lost 3 straight games for just the 2nd time all season. The only other time that occurred they bounced back with a 21-point win over Golden State in their following game. I’m not suggesting that type of victory margin, but I firmly believe they will turn in an outstanding performance tonight. Besides, nobody says we need to win straight up to cash considering the generous number we’re receiving. However, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Phoenix to force a deciding Game 7 at home. Any NBA Playoff away underdog that’s playing in Game 6 of the season, and they’re coming off a home favorite of -5.0 or less straight up loss, versus an opponent that’s a #3 seed or higher, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 1997. The average line was 4.2, and those away underdogs also won 7 of those 9 games straight up. Bet on the Suns plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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07-20-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Rockies (Marquez) 8:40 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Rockies (-1.5) (+105) (10*) The Mariners Marco Gonzalez has a large 6.98 ERA in 4 road starts this season. That’s certainly a red glag when considering he will be pitching at the hitter’s paradise called Coors Field tonight. The Rockies German Marquez has made 3 career starts versus Seattle while registering a dominant 1.71 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. Marquez has displayed excellent form over his last 5 starts with a microscopic 0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, and averaged a plentiful 7.2 innings pitched per outing. It then comes as no surprise when I say that Colorado went 5-0 in those outings and won by a decisive margin of 3.8 runs per game. Marquez has gone 10-2 in his home team starts this season with an impressive 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Colorado is far and away the worst road team in baseball this year. However, at the friendly confines of Coors Field they have gone an extremely profitable 32-19 (.627) and that includes 19-7 (.731) during their previous 26 at home. During those last 26 home games, $100 bettors that backed Colorado made a net profit of $1533. Bet on the Rockies for a 10* Top Play run-line wager. |
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07-14-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Suns @ Bucks 9:05 PM ET Play On: Suns +5.0 (10*) I cashed in with Milwaukee in the last game of these NBA Finals after they crushed Phoenix 120-100. However, I am banking on Phoenix being the resilient team they has shown to be for the past 5 plus months. Since 1/28/2021, Phoenix has gone 15-3 following a loss in their previous game. The Suns are also 13-1 SU&ATS in their last 14 this season following a non-division game in which they allowed 120 points or more. Additionally, Phoenix is 10-0 SU&ATS during their previous 10 games this season following a non-division loss in which they allowed 100 points or more and won by an average of 13.6 points per contest. Bet on the Suns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Suns @ Bucks 8:05 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Bucks -4.5 (5*) Milwaukee is coming off away underdog ATS losses in each of the first 2 games of this series. Those defeats dropped their overall season record to 58-33 (.637). The Bucks will have urgency and desperation on their side in trying to avoid an insurmountable 3-0 series deficit in which no team has ever overcome in NBA postseason history. Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 4.0 or more that playing in Game 3 of a series that’s coming off away underdog ATS losses in each of the first 2 games, and they possess a win percentage of between .605 and .705, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS since 1992. Those home teams won those contests by an average of 14.6 points per game. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Bucks @ Suns 9:05 PM ET Play On: Bucks +5.0 (10*) Milwaukee lost the opening game of these 2021 NBA Finals on Tuesday by a score of 118-105 and failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. Since losing Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series against Brooklyn, The Bucks have won 4 straight following a loss and won by an average of 15.7 points per game. As a matter of fact, Milwaukee is 9-1 in their last 10 overall following a loss. Any NBA Finals Game 2 away underdog of 8.0 or less that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 8.0-points or less, and they’re facing either a #1 or #2 seed, resulted in those away underdogs going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1994. The average line in those contests was 5.2. Bet on the Bucks plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Bucks @ Suns 9:05 PM ET Play On: Suns -5.5 (10*) Since losing Game 3 of their 1st round series versus the Lakers, Phoenix has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS to reach the NBA Finals for a first time since 1993. Milwaukee secured their sport in the NBA Finals with an Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog. Despite that win, the Bucks are just 2-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog this season. Milwaukee is 0-2 SU&ATS in their last 2 series openers The Bucks will enter the NBA Finals with a win percentage of just .651. Any NBA Finals Game 1 home favorite of 8.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .728 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 2005, and the average margin of victory came by a decisive 13.1 points per game. Phoenix is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their opening games of a playoff series during these 2021 NBA Playoffs. The Suns have also played terrific defense throughout this year’s postseason while holding opponents to just 101.9 points scored per game. Bet on the Suns minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-06-21 | Reds -1.5 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Reds (Castillo) @ Royals (Bubic) 8:10 PM ET Game# 979-980 Play On: Reds -1.5 (+106) (5*) Kansas City was 29-26 at one point of this season. However, since that time they’ve gone 6-23 and that includes 2-11 during their previous 13 games. The Royals are slated to go with Kris Bubic on the mound today. Throughout his previous 4 starts Bubic has been awful while posting a massive 10.06 ERA and he surrendered an alarmingly high 11 home runs in just 17.0 innings pitched. The Royals bullpen doesn’t figure to provide much assistance since they’ve collected a lofty 6.75 ERA throughout its previous 7 games. The Reds enter today riding a current 5-game win streak. Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo has displayed superb form over his last 4 starts with an excellent 1.17 ERA. The Reds bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games while gathering an impressive 1.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bet on the Reds for a 5* run-line wager. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Milwaukee 8:35 PM ET Play On: Milwaukee -3.0 (10*) The line has been adjusted accordingly due to the absence of Milwaukee star Giannis Antetkounmpo (28.1 PPG/11.0 RPG). However, the Bucks have enough talent to survive in the short term without him. Milwaukee is 32-11 at home this season which includes 6-1 in the playoffs. The Bucks will be out to atone for a Game 4 loss by 22 points as a sizable 9.0-point favorite. Any NBA Playoffs Game 5 home team that’s coming off exactly 1 loss, and has a win percentage of .627 or better, resulted in those home teams going 50-9 (84.7%) since the 1999 postseason. The straight up results take on added significance due to the low number we are being asked to cover. Bet on Milwaukee minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |