Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Dolphins | 20-22 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Cowboys +1.5 Miami is 0-3 SU&ATS this season versus teams that currently have a winning record and they were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their last 7 versus an opponent with a winning record. They haven’t accomplished the feat since beating Buffalo 21-19 during Week 3 of last season. Putting that into perspective, Miami has played 29 consecutive games without beating a team with a winning record. Dallas is coming off a humbling 31-10 loss at Buffalo in a game they were physically manhandled. I look forward to them coming back this week with a superlative effort. Dallas has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 23.3 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. During that same time span, they’re also 6-0 SU&ATS on the road following a SU loss and won by 15.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys. |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears -4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Bears 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bears -4.0 The Bears are coming off a tough 20-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday. However, Chicago is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Chicago defense has forced an impressive 14 turnovers during their previous 4 games. Chicago is 3-3 at home but probably deserves better when considering that they were a +72.7 yards per game in those contests. On the other hand, they’ll be facing an Arizona team that 1-6 SU on the road with a -9.7 point per game differential and were outgained by 83.6 yards per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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12-23-23 | Bills -12.5 v. Chargers | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 24 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chargers 8:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -12.5 The Chargers are a team in disarray and are playing with an interim head coach after the firing of Brandon Staley this past week. The Chargers were embarrassed before a Monday night national televion audience during a 63-21 loss at Las Vegas in a game they trailed 49-0 at halftime. Los Angeles has now lost their last 2, 5 of the last 6, and are now 5-9 (.357) on the season. Furthermore, the Chargers are 0-5 ATS this season as an underdog while being outscored by 14.4 points per game. During their current 1-5 funk in their last 6 they own an atrocious turnover margin of -11. Their only win in that span came at New England (3-11). Any NFL favorite of 10.5 or greater that has a winning record, versus an opponent that possesses a win percentage of .250 to .400 and has lost 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those favorites going 28-3 ATS (90.3%) since 2014. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -6.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
Duke vs. Troy 12:00 PM ET Game# 221-222. Play On: Troy -6.5 This line speaks volumes to me when considering we have a Sun Belt team that’s a touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference opponent. Duke started the season 4-0 which included quality wins over Clemson and Northwestern. Then they went 3-5 the rest of the way. Following that 4-0 start they lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame in which their starting quarterback Riley Leonard was injured. Leonard was never fully healthy the rest of the season and sat out several games. Ironically Leonard has since transferred to Notre Dame. The quality of depth at quarterback behind Leonard leaves plenty to be desired. Troy started the season 1-2 with their losses coming at Kansas State and versus James Madison (11-1) by a narrow 2-point margin. Since that time, they’ve reeled off 10 wins in a row. Their most recent of those wins came in a 49-23 blowout over Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Trojan’s defense has been stout all season while allowing a mere 17.2 points and 308.3 yards per game. Troy is +14.0 points and +117.9 yards per game on their way to a stellar 11-2 record. Give me Troy minus points. |
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12-22-23 | Illinois -6.5 v. Missouri | 97-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Missouri vs. Illinois 9:00 PM ET Game# 873-874 Play On: Illinois -6.5 This game will be played at a neutral site at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis. Illinois is the more balanced team on both ends of the floor. The Illini are 8-2 with their only losses coming against Top 15 caliber teams in Marquette and Tennessee. They also own a 9-point at Madison Square Garden over an excellent Florida Atlantic (9-2) who has 5 returning starters from last season run to the NCAA Tournament Final Four. Missouri is 7-4 including a blowout home loss to Memphis and a 73-72 home defeat to Jackson State as a 22.5-point favorite. The Tigers have also dropped their last 2 games played versus Kansas and Seton Hall. Thus far Missouri is statistically one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. That’s certainly not good news and especially so against Illinois who ranks 43rd nationally in offensive rebounding. This isn’t a good matchup for the Tigers. Give me Illinois minus points. |
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12-22-23 | Canisius +8.5 v. High Point | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Canisius @ High Point 7:00 PM ET Game# 306661-306662 Play On: Canisius +8.5 Canisius has gone an extremely profitable 4-0-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 6.5 or greater. The Golden Griffins are coming off a hard fought 82-71 loss at Pittsburgh. Canisius is 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus Division 1 opponents following a SU loss. Canisius also gave Syracuse (9-3) all they can handle in a 12-point loss and upset St. Bonaventure (7-3) with both contests coming on the road. Canisius has faced a much more difficult schedule than High Point (9-4) has played against. Hence, the underdog value I love in this matchup. Give me Canisius plus points. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech vs. UCF 6:30 PM ET Game# 219-220 Play On: Georgia Tech +5.5 UCF started the season 3-0 and then proceeded to go 3-6 during their last 9 games. The Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game. Georgia Tech is coming off a 31-23 loss to #6 Georgia in their regular season finale which dropped their record to 6-6. However, the Yellowjackets have gone a perfect 5-0 SU this season immediately following a loss with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per contest, and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Georgia Tech will be facing a UCF team which is averaging 32.3 points scored per game this season. Nonetheless, since the start of last season, Georgia Tech has gone an unscathed 9-0 ATS versus opponents who average 31.0 or more points scored per game. Give me Georgia Tech plus points. |
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12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Bulls 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Bulls +4.5 The Lakers have dropped 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover on each occasion. Conversely, Chicago is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS during their previous 9 games. The Bulls have shot an impressive 39.5% from 3-point territory over their last 5 contests. That’s good news as it applies to this matchup considering the Lakers 3-points defense has left much to be desired over their last 5 while opponents have made 38.9% of those long-distance attempts against them. The great equalizer for an underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. This will be a textbook example of such. Give me the Bulls plus points. |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors +6 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
The Celtics are a perfect 14-0 at home this season. However, on the road they've gone just 6-5 SU and 2-7-2 ATS. As a matter of fact, Boston is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games and was a favorite on each occasion. Golden State began the season by losing 6 of their first 7 at home. Since that time, they've captured 5 home wins in a row. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA -10.5 v. Marshall | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Marshall vs. UTSA 9:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: UTSA -10.5 The Roadrunners were the far better team even before the multitude os Marshall players going into the transfer portal. Now they’re the far superior side and the only team that will be UTSA in this matchup is UTSA. Marshall not only has on the field issues but the off the field problems have been equally as troubling. Their current head coach isn’t liked by not only the players but the Thundering Herd’s loyakl fan base as well. There are also no viable sources for NIL money. Hence the inordinate number of players jumping ship once the regular season concluded. Speaking of the regular season, Marshall began the 2023 campaign 4-0 and has gone a dismal 2-6 since. The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 2.0 or greater and were outscored by an average of 17.0 points per game. UTSA began the season 1-3 and then proceeded to win 7 of their last 8 contests with their lone defeat coming against eventual AAC champion Tulane 29-16 on the road. The key to UTSA winning and covering in this spot is 7th year senior quarterback Frank Harris Jr. who when healthy like he is now makes the Roadrunners a very difficult offense to defend. UTSA is 8-2 this season with Harris as their starting quarterback. UTSA has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 14.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by an average of 22.0 points per game. Give me UTSA minus points. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Seahawks 8:15 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Seahawks +3.5 Philadelphia star quarterback Jalen Hurs is listed as questionable as he’s been battling an illness the last few days. The Eagles are 1-2 in their last 3. They’re lucky not to be 0-3 in those previous 3 if not for a 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott on the last play of regulation time which sent the game to overtime and enabled them to escape with 37-34 win over Buffalo. The Eagles defense is a major concern of late. During those previously mentioned 3 contests they allowed 33 points or more on each occasion and an alarmingly high 451.7 yards per game. The Seahawks have lost 4 straight and are now 6-7 but still very march alive for a possible NFC Wild Card spot. It must be noted, those previous 4 losses were to San Francisco (11-3) twice, Dallas (10-4), and a Rams (7-7) team that’s won 4 of their last 5. Additionally, Seattle was an underdog in all 4 of those losses and covered on 3 of those occasions. Any NFL team like Seattle that’s facing an opponent like Philadelphia that’s allowing 24 or more points per game and gave up 30 points or greater in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 39-9 SU (81.3%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Since this money line betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added significance. Give me the Seahawks plus points. |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -6 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky 2:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Old Dominion -6.0 Western Kentucky will be without senior starting quarterback Austin Reed and several of their starting offensive linemen. Old Dominion has faced 8 bowl teams during regular season action and that doesn’t even include James Madison (11-1) that was ineligible to play in postseason action. They went 4-5 in those contests. The monarchs finished regular season play with wins over Georgia Southern and Georgia State to become bowl eligible and will surely be motivated to play the Famous Toastery Bowl at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte which is the home of the NFL Carolina Panthers. Give me Old Dominion minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
I used Boston on Friday night as a home favorite over Orlando and they easily won and covered. I'm coming right back with them today. The Celtics are 13-0 SU and 8-3-2 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. The Celtics have shot 50% or better in 8 of their last 10 at home. Conversely, Orlando is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away and allowed opponents to score 121 points or more and shoot 50% or better on each occasion. Orlando is a terrific 11-1 at home this season but just 5-7 on the road. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Bears @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Browns -2.5 The Bears are getting a lot of love from bettors this week after going 3-1 in their last 4 and covering on each occasion. However, let’s not get carried away. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Baltimore in a game that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch and was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who was brutal. With Watson gone for the year due to injury, the Browns signed veteran Joe Flacco off the couch and in 3 has played more than respectable. Additionally, the Browns defense has been sensational in their 7 contests at home while allowing a mere 12.6 points and 192.4 yards per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 It will be unseasonably warm in Green Bay with little chance of rain and winds below 10 MPH. That’s good news and a pleasant surprise for a warm weather team like Tampa Bay playing at Green Bay in December. The key to the Bucs covering and giving them a strong possibility of winning this game outright will be their ability to run the ball effectively. Hence, opening up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities for Baker Mayfield and company. Green Bay’s run defense has been brutal despite them making a midseason postseason push. During their previous 5 contests, the Green Bay defense has allowed 170.4 yards per game on the ground and an alarmingly high 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs running game was anemic for most of this season. However, during their last 3 outings they’ve rushed for 133.7 yards per game and averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay enters this week in a 3-way tie atop the NFC South Division. The Bucs have been very profitable on the road this season while going 6-1 ATS. Green Bay had their bubble burst and 3-game win streak halted in last Monday’s 24-22 road loss to the New York Giants. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Texans @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Texans +3.5 Yes, C.J. Stroud will not play for Houston this week after suffering a concussion during last Sunday’s 30-6 road loss to the Jets. However, his backup Davis Mills was the Texans starter the previous 2 seasons and is more than capable of giving them an reasonable opportunity to win and especially so against a below average team like Tennessee. You may be surprised to know that Houston has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 SU&ATS in division road game since the start of the 2021-2022 season. That includes a 37-17 blowout win over Jacksonville in their only division road game this season. Keep in mind, that means Davis Mills was 5-1 SU&ATS as a starter in division road games the past 2 seasons. Since Week 3, Houston is 4-0 SU following a loss. Tennessee is coming off last Monday’s huge 28-27 upset win over Miami in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. Nonetheless, the Titans haven’t won 2 in a row all season and are 0-4 SU&ATS following a win. Lastly, the visiting teams are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games between these division rivals. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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12-16-23 | California +3 v. Texas Tech | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
California vs. Texas Tech 9:15 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: California +3.0 When it comes to minor bowl games such as this, it’s just a matter of what team is more motivated. I firmly believe that the team will be California in this matchup. There were high expectations for Texas Tech heading into the season being that they had 17 returning starters including all 11 on offense from a team that went 8-5 the year before. But they finished regular season action with a very uninspiring 6-6 record to barely qualify for postseason action. On the other hand, not much was expected from California heading into the year and it came as no surprise that they were 3-6 through their first 9 games. However, the finished their regular season slate by going 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 including a pair of road wins to close out the campaign over Stanford and UCLA which made them bowl eligible. I look for an inspired effort from the Golden Bears in this one. They key to victory will be California being able to run the ball with a high degree of success. Throughout their last 3 contests, Texas Tech allowed 207 yards or more on the ground during each occasion, and opponents averaged an alarmingly high 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Cal averaged an impressive 182.7 yards per game on the ground this season and a healthy 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Give me California plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Alabama v. Creighton -7 | 82-85 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Creighton 8:00 PM ET Game# 689-690 Play On: Creighton -7.0 No College Basketball analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA -5.5 v. Boise State | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Boise State @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: UCLA -5.5 This game will almost be like a home game for UCLA with it being played at So-Fi Stadium in Los Angeles. Boise State’s starting quarterback Taylen Green entered the transfer portal following the Broncos MWC Championship Game win over UNLV. The Broncos are set to start freshmen C.J. Tiller at quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass this season. Boise State will rely on their ground attack and star running back Ashton Jeanty who ran for 1262 yards this season. However, he’ll be facing a UCLA defense that was 5th nationally in rushing defense at 68.6 yards per game. The Bruins starting cornerbacks entered the transfer portal, but I would be more concerned if Boise State had a more experienced signal caller than C.J. Tiller. Give me UCLA minus points. |
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12-16-23 | Steelers +2 v. Colts | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Colts 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Steelers +2.0 The Pittsburgh quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired with backup Mitchell Trubisky under center. However, the Steelers running game will be the difference in this matchup. During their previous 7 contests the Colts have allowed an alarmingly high 147.0 yards rushing per game in addition to 4.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, throughout their previous 6 contests the Steelers have rushed for 151.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. The Steelers ability to run the ball effectively will set up some favorable play action passing opportunities for Trubisky and take a huge load off his shoulders. Furthermore, the Steelers are 2-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-division away underdog. Additionally, the Colts are 5-2 this season in neutral site and away games but a poor 2-4 at home. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU&ATS on the road when the point-spread is between +3.0 and -3.0. On the other hand, during that identical time span, the Colts are 4-8 SU&ATS at home when the point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Once again since the 2021-2022 season consummated, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 3.0 or less. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Miami-OH v. Appalachian State -6.5 | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio vs. Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Appalachian State -6.5 This opening line and the ensuing movement speak volumes to me. We have an Appalachian State team who was blown out in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by Troy as currently better than a touchdown favorite the MAC champion Miami-Ohio Red Hawks. Truth be told, the Sun Belt was far and away better than the MAC this season from top to bottom. There were 10 of 12 Sun Belt teams that were bowl eligible and the MAC was extremely top heavy and with a lot of bad teams. Despite that loss to Troy, the Mountaineers enter the bowl season 8-5 and with their other 4 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. Miami was terrific defensively during conference play while allowing just 12.0 points per game. However, in 3 non-conference games versus FBS opponents the Red Hawks surrendered 30.0 points and 445.7 yards per game. The Redhawk’s offense leaves much to be desired. Throughout their previous 6 contests they averaged only 21.5 points scored and 281.0 yards gained per game. They’re going to be facing a Mountaineers offense that averages 34.8 points scored and 452.2 yards gained per game. Give me Appalachian State minus points. |
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12-16-23 | Texas A&M +7.5 v. Houston | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Houston 2:30 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Texas A&M +7.5 No College Basketball analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bengals -3.0 Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season due to injury. However, I give a huge edge to Cincinnati when it comes to the backup quarterback situation. Jake Browning will be making his 4th start since taking over for Joe Burrow. During his first 3 starts he’s been nothing short of superb with all be considered while completing 79.3% for 856 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. The Bengals are coming off a pair of wins over the Colts 34-14 and 34-31 at Jacksonville as a 10.0-point underdog. Conversely, the Vikings escaped with a 3-0 win at Las Vegas last Sunday. It was the 2nd straight listless offensive performance for Minnesota who 2 weeks ago lost 12-10 at home to Chicago. Cincinnati is 4-1 in non-division home game this season. Cincinnati has also been very good at protecting the football this season while committing just 11 turnovers through 13 games. That hasn’t been the case for Minnesota who has committed 24 turnovers this season. Finally, under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS in regular season games 13 through 17. Give me the Bengals minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Knicks v. Suns -4.5 | 139-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Suns -4.5 I faded the Suns on Wednesday against Brooklyn and cashed that winning ticket. Nonetheless, I am betting on them tonight and without the least bit of hesitancy. This will be just the 2nd time this season that Phoenix will have their terrific trio of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant all available at the same time. I look for that to be a more telling factor than the debut in Wednesday’s home loss. Besides, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and were outcored by an average of 12.7 points per game. New York’s defensive play has been horrible throughout their previous 5 contests as they allowed 126.4 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.4% which includes 39.4% from 3-point territory. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -5.5 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Magic @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Celtics -5.5 Despite Orlando beating Boston 4 consecutive times dating back to last season and being a vastly improved team this season with a current record of 16-7, they still find themselves as a sizable road underdog in this spot. I find this current point-spread to be justified and am not swayed by the Magic’s recent success versus Boston. Keeping Orlando’s fast start to this 2023-2024 campaign into perspective, they’ve done much of their damage at home where they’re 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. On the road they’re a mediocre 5-6 SU. Conversely, Boston is 12-0 SU at home with a dominating average victory margin of 15.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers v. Wizards +9 | 123-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Wizards 7:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Wizards +9.0 To be a successful sports bettor there are times it requires making an uncomfortable wager. This is a textbook example of such. The Wizards are a terrible team that comes into this Eastern Conference matchup with an abysmal 3-20 record. However, this sets up to be a favorable situation to get inside this sizable number as a home underdog. One thing that’s been respectable for Washington has been their play on the offensive side of the floor. The Wizards have averaged 115.2 points scored per game and shot 48.2% from the field this season. The major weakness of an otherwise impressive young Pacers team is their shoddy defensive play. That’s especially evident when Indiana is on the road where they’re allowing 132.6 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot a blistering 52.6% from the field. Furthermore, over their last 5 road games, Indiana has allowed 137.2 points per outing and all those opponents shot 53% or better from the field. Lastly, Indiana is coming off a 140-126 divisional loss at Milwaukee, and they’re 0-7 ATS following a divisional game this season. It’s also worth noting, they were outscored in those 7 contests by a substantial margin of 14.5 points per game. Give me the Wizards plus points. |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Nets @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Nets +2.5 The Suns are an uninspiring 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Phoenix will be facing a Brooklyn team that has shot 47.3% from the field this season. The Suns are an atrocious 1-11 ATS and 3-9 SU this season when facing opponents with a season offensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or better. The Nets have been an extremely profitable 16-5-1 ATS this season which includes 6-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn is coming off Monday’s 131-118 at Sacramento and that is significant. The Nets are 8-1 ATS this season following a SU loss and with a +4.1 point per game differential. Lastly, since the beginning of last season, Brooklyn is 15-2 SU in December and Phoenix is 7-14 SU. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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12-11-23 | Wolves v. Pelicans -3.5 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Pelicans -3.5 This is another fishy line with all being considered and even with star guard Anthony Edwards listed as questionable to play. Minnesota is coming off a 127-103 blowout win at Memphis which extended their win streak to 6-games and they’re also on a red-hot 16-2 winning run. Yet, they’re an underdog against a New Orleans team which is coming off an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinal. However, New Orleans is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss in their previous contest and won by a substantial margin of 22.3 points per game. Give me the Pelicans minus points. |
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12-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hawks +2.5 | 129-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Hawks 7:40 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Hawks +2.5 Like many reigning NBA championship teams before them, the Denver Nuggets have a bullseye on their head. Teams have used that emotional advantage quite well when hosting the Nuggets this season. Denver is 9-1 SU at home but a below average 5-8 on the road. This current line showing Denver has a small favorite versus an Atlanta team which is 0-3 in their last 3 and 3-8 during their previous 11 games speaks loudly to me. I am listening. Give me the Hawks plus points. |
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12-11-23 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | 94-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Magic 7:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Cavaliers +1.5 This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me. We have an Orlando team which is 10-1 at home this season and outscoring those visiting opponents by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game, and here they are as just a short favorite. Not to mention, Orlando is on a current 8-game home win streak. However, the Cavaliers are 7-3 on the road this season and that includes 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road tilts. These teams met last Wednesday in Cleveland and the Cavaliers walked away with a 121-111 win despite Orlando being awarded 37 free throw attempts. The Cavaliers are a much better defensive team than Orlando and they’ve allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Cowboys -3.5 Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1 v. Chiefs | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Bills +1.0 This point-spread jumped off the screen when I first looked with the Chiefs only opening as a 3.0-point home favorite. My eyes opened even wider this morning when I saw this line drop to 1.0 or a pick depending on the sportsbook. After all, Buffalo is 6-6 and the defending world champion Chiefs are 8-4. Especially since Kansas City has been so good at home and extremely tough to beat following a loss under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU in their last 24 at home. However, 2 of those 4 losses came versus Buffalo. Additionally, the Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 and 15-1 SU during their previous 16 immediately following a loss. The flip side to that equation is that Buffalo is 5-1 SU under head coach Sean McDermott following a scheduled bye week. The Bills are also much better than their 6-6 record with all those 6 defeats coming by a combined 26 points and each loss came by 6 points or fewer. Not to mention, 2 of those setbacks came in overtime. Buffalo will be in desperation and urgency mode knowing they have virtually no more room for error when it comes to making the playoffs. Give me the Bills in this one. |
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12-10-23 | Vikings -2.5 v. Raiders | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Vikings -2.5 After going through a stretch in which they went 5-0 SU&ATS, the Viking have lost their last 2 contests and by just a combined 3 points. They shot themselves in the foot in both losses by committing 7 turnover which were mostly the fault of starting quarterback Joshua Dobs. After much speculation earlier this week, Dobbs will remain the starter and will gladly welcome back star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from an injury that forced him to miss 7 games. The Raiders (4-8) are a mess, and their offense has been anemic while scoring 17 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games. The Vikings are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS on the road this season when facing teams like the Raiders who currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. Their lone SU loss in that sequence was 21-20 at Denver in which they led for much of the game. The Vikings defense is a very underrated unit which has allowed only 20.2 points and 320.3 yards per game. Give me the Vikings minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Lions -3 v. Bears | 13-28 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
Lions @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Lions -3.0 The Bears have received a lot of love this week with regards to public betting. I am not one of those individuals. Yes, the Lions needed a late 26-14 deficit in their first meeting against Chicago by scoring 17 unanswered points in the last 3:05 to win 31-26. Let’s keep things in proper perspective, the Lions turned the ball over 4 times in that contest and had a -3 turnover margin and were still able to win. The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bears are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 and 1-10 SU&ATS during their previous 11 as a division home underdog. The Lions are coming off last Sunday’s 33-28 win at New Orleans in which they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Bears are coming off a 12-10 win at Minnesota in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. NFL division road favorites that are coming off a non-division road ATS favorite cover, versus an opponent that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points or fewer, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1984. Those road favorites won those 11 contests by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers -4 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Lakers vs. Pacers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -4.0 The Lakers have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and won by a decisive margin of 23.0 points per game. Los Angeles is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite of 2.0 or greater. The difference in this matchup is the Lakers are far superior on the defensive side of the floor than Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 111 points or more in every game this season. Conversely, the Lakers have allowed 110 points or fewer in 13 of their 23 games. As a matter of fact, the Pacers are allowing 124.9 points per game but have been able to get away with it on many occasions during a 12-8 start because they also average 128.4 points per contest. When it comes to big games in any sport my tendency is to lean toward the team that’s better defensively. This is a textbook example of such. For those unaware, this is the Finals of the NBA In-Season Tournament with the winning team awarded $500,000 being awarded to each player. Furthermore, the Lakers are the more experienced team and have players who have been in big games such as these much more than those of the Pacers. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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12-09-23 | St. Mary's v. Colorado State -5 | 64-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
St. Mary’s @ Colorado State 6:30 PM ET Game# 697-695 Play On: Colorado State -5.0 St. Mary’s was ranked in the preseason AP Poll Top 25. At this current time, it’s safe to say they were vastly overrated. The Gaels are 4-5 which includes bad losses to Weber State at home, San Diego State by 25, and Xavier by 17. Conversely, Colorado State has lived up to their preseason billing by winning their first 9 games. Additionally, the Rams have covered in 7 of those 9 contests while also posting quality wins over Power Conference opponents like Washington, Colorado, Creighton, and Boston College. The Rams are an extremely efficient offensively while averaging 119.8 points scored per 100 offensive possessions and that’s 6th best in all of college basketball. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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12-09-23 | Cincinnati +1.5 v. Xavier | 79-84 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Xavier 6:30 PM ET Game# 699-700 Play On: Cincinnati +1.5 The old cliché in rivalry games such as this one is to toss the records out the window. However, it doesn’t erase that fact that Xavier (4-5) enters this matchup losers of 3 straight games and all of which were played at home. There was no shame in losing to #1 Houston by 6. However, 2 of those 3 homes losses came as a double-digit favorite to mid-major conference teams Delaware 87-80 and Oakland 78-46. and neither team is currently rated in the Top 125 of College Basketball according to KenPom. Cincinnati has played a much weaker schedule than Xavier but has started the season 7-0 and is rated #24 by KenPom. The Bearcats have posted double-digit wins in 6 of those 7 contests. Give me Cincinnati. |
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12-08-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -8.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Nuggets 9:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -8.5 Considering the Rockets have shown to be a much-improved team in the early going of this season, this appears as a very heavy line which makes it alluring to take the underdog. Nonetheless, I just can’t ignore the home/away dichotomies in this matchup. Houton is an outstanding 9-1 SU at home but an abysmal 0-8 SU on the road. On the other hand, Denver is an uninspiring 5-8 SU on the road but an unbeaten 9-0 SU at home where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Nuggets are coming off 2 losses in a row with both coming on the road versus the Kings and Clippers. However, the defending world champions haven’t lost 3 straight games all season and are 2-0 SU&ATS immediately following back-to-back losses. Give me the Nuggets minus points. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Thunder | 136-138 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Warriors +3.0 These teams have already met 3 times this season and the visitors are unscathed 3-0 during those matchups. The Warriors are certainly off to a disappointing start to the season. Nevertheless, they’re a money-making 7-3 ATS on the road. The upstart Thunder are just 2-3 in their last 5 games. During that stretch, they’re allowing opponents to attempt 33 free throw attempts per games and make an alarmingly high 38% of their 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, throughout their last 5 contests Golden State is averaging 28 free throws per contest while making a stellar 81% of those attempts. During that identical 5-game span, the Warriors have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. During their first 3 meetings against Oklahoma City, Golden State averaged an extremely high 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which equates to a better than average amount of multiple offensive possessions. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -5.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Steelers -5.5 The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Buccaneers -3.5 Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints +4 | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Saints +4.0 The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea. Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. |
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12-02-23 | Nuggets v. Kings -4.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Kings -4.5 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | 26-0 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Iowa +22.5 Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Georgia v. Alabama +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Alabama +5.5 Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -14.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Texas -14.5 Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points. Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Fresno State v. BYU -14.5 | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State vs. BYU 9:00 PM ET Game# 885-886 Play On: BYU -14.5 This game won’t be played in Provo but it will take place in Salt Lake City which by all intents and purposes Is a BYU home game. BYU (6-0) is currently ranked #19 in the AP Poll. Nevertheless, I trust the KenPom rankings much more and they have the Cougars at #9. BYU is is extremely good on both ends of the floor. They’re 28th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage while Fresno State is #338 at defending the 3-point shot. Fresno is an uninspiring 2-3 versus Division 1 teams thus far with their only wins coming over Morgan State and New Mexico State who currently have a combined 1-12 record versus Division 1 competition. Give me BYU minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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12-01-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius -3.5 | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac @ Canisius 7:00 PM ET Game# 865-866 Play On: Canisius -3.5 Quinnipiac is 5-1 but their wins have come over Coast Guard, Army, Stonehill, Central Connecticut State, and Albany. Their 4 Division 1 wins came over teams that currently have a combined 7-21 (.250) record. Conversely, Canisius owns quality wins over St. Bonaventure (4-2) and Western Kentucky (5-3). They also gave Syracuse (5-2) all they can handle in a 12-point road loss. Give me Canisius minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Liberty -4 v. College of Charleston | 67-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Charleston 6:00 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: Liberty -4.0 Liberty suffered their first loss of the season last night to #13 FAU. However, keep in mind, that was an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from a team that reached the Final 4 this past April. Additionally, that game was part of the Field of 68 Tournament which is being held on the home floor of FAU. The Flames own a quality win over a Top 100 team in Wichita State. These teams faced one common opponent and that was Vermont. Liberty defeated the Catamounts 71-61 while Charleston lost 77-69 on a neutral floor. Charleston is a mediocre 3-3 to start the season with 1 of those wins coming against a team that currently has a winning record. Libert has played the tougher schedule and is batter both offensively and defensively than Charleston. This is also an experienced Liberty team that went 27-9 a season ago and advanced to the 2nd Round of the NIT where they lost at Wisconsin 75-71 after advancing with a home win over Villanova. Give me Liberty minus points. |
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11-30-23 | Pacers +2.5 v. Heat | 132-142 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Pacers +2.5 Indiana is coming off a stunning 114-110 home loss to Portland in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. However, the Pacers have only dropped back-to-back games once this season and the last time it occurred was way back on 11/1. As a matter of fact, Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Pacers have been a dynamic offensive team thus far and have averaged 127.6 points scored per game while also shooting a red-hot 50.3% from the field. Conversely, Miami is 0-3 SU in their last 3 and during those contests they allowed opponents to shoot 50.6%. Five me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-30-23 | Liberty v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Liberty @ FAU 6:00 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: FAU -7.5 Liberty comes into this matchup with a 6-0 record. However, they’ve faced a much easier schedule than FAU and has posted no victories over major conference teams. This will also be the Flames first true road game of the season. #13 FAU (6-1) sustained a massive upset loss earlier this season when they fell to Bryant as a 23.5-point home favorite. However, since that stunning defeat, the Owls have gone 3-0 with wins over noteworthy opponents the likes of Butler, Texas A7M. and Virginia Tech. During those 3 victories they averaged an impressive 90.3 points scored per game and shot a blistering hot 54.3% from the field. Keep in mind, this is an FAU team which made it to the Final 4 a season ago and all 5 of last year’s starters returned for another run at a national championship. Give me FAU minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5 | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Colorado State 9:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Colorado State -2.5 Colorado State is a hidden gem at 6-0 and ranked #20. The Rams are coming off an extremely impressive 69-48 upset win over #15 Creighton as a 9.0-point underdog on a neutral floor. Colorado State is averaging 84.9 points scored per game while shooting a blistering hot 53.9% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the 3-point line. The Rams will be out for big time revenge stemming from a 93-65 blowout loss at Colorado last season. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Bradley @ Murray State 8:00 PM ET Game# 697-698 Play On: Bradley -3.5 Bradley is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS to start the season. I know they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out, but they’re solid defensively and faced a respectful strength of schedule thus far. Murray State will enter this contest on a 3-game losing streak with many of their recent failures deriving from poor defensive play. Give me Bradley minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Oakland -7 v. Detroit | 65-50 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Oakland @ Detroit 7:00 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Oakland -7.0 Detroit has been horrible to start the season. The Titans are 0-6 with an average loss margin by 17.3 points per game and failed to cover on 5 of those 6 occasions. They’ve been especially brutal on the defensive end of the floor. Oakland is 4-3 and covered all 7 games. Oakland is coming off a terrific upset win over Xavier on a neutral floor in a game they were a 15.0-point underdog. They were very competitive in losses by 6 at Ohio State (5-1), by 11 at Illinois (5-1), and by 8 versus Drake (5-1). Give me Oakland minus points. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-26-23 | Raptors +1.5 v. Cavs | 102-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Raptors +1.5 The Raptors have shot the ball extremely well of late and Cleveland has been porous defensively over their last 2 games. Toronto has averaged 121.4 points scored per contest and shot 51.9% throughout their previous 2 games. Conversely, Toronto is coming off 2 consecutive home losses in which they allowed 125.0 points per contest, permitted their opponents to shoot 52.3%, and was -7 rebounds per game. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Bills +3.0 When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets. The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-25-23 | Florida State -6.5 v. Florida | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Florida State -6.5 Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Nets -3.5 Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points. |
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11-25-23 | BYU v. Oklahoma State -16 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0 BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Davidson +11.5 v. St. Mary's | 55-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Davidson @ St. Mary’s 4:00 PM ET Game# 807-808 Play On: Davidson +11.5 St. Mary’s has vastly underachieved in the early portion of their schedule when considering they were a preseason Top 25 team. The Gaels have lost their last 3 including the previous 2 in blowout fashion versus Xavier and San Diego State. They began their current 3-game skid by losing to Weber State at home as a 15.5-point favorite. Davidson is 3-2 but owns a win over Maryland and lost to currently undefeated Clemson by just 3. Davidson posted a 69-45 home win over Boston U. in their previous game. Davidson has gone an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a win by 20 points or more. Give me Davidson plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +10 | 34-13 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Jets +10.0 The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3. NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Lions -7.5 The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions. Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Rockets -4.5 Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers v. Suns -12.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Suns -12.5 This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Cavs +8 v. 76ers | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Cavaliers +8.0 After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home. Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chiefs -2.5 No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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11-20-23 | Howard +4 v. Bryant | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Bryant is coming off a massive 61-52 upset of nationally ranked FAU team and did so as a 23.5-point road underdog. That's an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from last season's Final Four team. However, now Bryant finds themselves as a short home favorite against a 2-3 Howard team. If it looks to goo to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me Howard plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Purdue -4.5 v. Gonzaga | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an experienced Purdue team that demolished Gonzaga 84-66 on a neutral court last season. The Boilermakers are 3-0 thus far and have outscored all 3 of those Division 1 opponents by a decisive margin of 29.6 points per game. Gonzaga's lone game versus a division 1 team this year was an uninspiring 15-point home win over Yale. Purdue is a terrific shooting and rebounding team. Expect a similar result to the one we witnessed last year. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans -5.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Texans -5.5 Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game. After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals. Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Giants v. Commanders -8.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Commanders -8.5 Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +9.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Tennessee +9.5 If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points. |
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11-18-23 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +1 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Miami Fla. 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami +1.0 This line makes no sense to me and when that occurs more times than not, I go against what seems to be the obvious choice. We have the #9 team in the country in Louisville at 9-1 as a pick versus an unranked Miami team that’s 6-4 that’s lost the last 2 and 4 of their previous 6 games. Additionally, Louisville game after Miami comes against in state bitter rival Kentucky. If it looks too good to be true pertaining to sports betting it usually is. This is a prime example of such. Give me Miami Fla. on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | SMU v. Memphis +9.5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Memphis +9.5 Memphis enters this American Athletic Conference matchup on a 4-game win streak, and it’s improved their season record to 8-2. Conversely, SMU is coming off a SU&ATS 45-21 win over North Texas. SMU is also 8-2 but all 7 of their wins over FBS opponents this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record and have a combined record of 21-50 (.296). College Football home underdogs of between 2.5 to 14.0 Like Memphis that are coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like SMU who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2018. The home underdogs also went 14-2 SU in those games. Give me Memphis plus points. |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Clippers 10:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Clippers -7.5 Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Ravens -3.5 The Ravens are coming off a home favorite 33-31 SU loss to Cleveland last Sunday. That dropped their season record to a still very good 7-3 (.700). The Ravens will be able to move the ball with a high degree of efficiency against a vulnerable Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati is coming off a 30-27 home upset loss to Houston in a game they allowed the Texans to rack up 544 yards of total offense. That marked the 4th time in 9 games this season that the Bengals defense surrendered 400 yards or more. As a matter of fact, the Bengals defense ranks 30th total yards allowed and also 30th at stopping the run. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing offense while averaging 154.9 yards per game. Conversely, the Baltimore defense is #2 in yards allowed per game and they’re #1 at sacking the quarterback. Any regular season NFL favorite like Baltimore with a win percentage between .600 to .750 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they’re playing after Game 8, versus an opponent like Cincinnati that’s coming off a loss and has a win percentage of .181 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2016. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial margin of 21.9 points per game. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Nets @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Nets +3.5 Yes, Miami is on a 6-game win streak. However, all 6 of those wins have come by 8 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been winning decisively during this current hot run. The Heat are 3-1 SU at home but failed to cover on each of those 4 occasions. Additionally, in their only game versus Brooklyn this season they lost 109-105 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Brooklyn is a mediocre 6-5 to start the season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an extremely profitable 9-1-1 ATS during those 11 contests. Brooklyn has held all 11 of their opponents to less than 50% shooting. They’ve been especially stout defensively over their previous 4 contests while holding teams to 103.0 points scored per game and just 41.1% shooting. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Suns -6.0 This is an extremely fishy line with all being considered. Minnesota is on an 7-game win streak including coming off back-to-back wins at Golden State. Keep in mind, their win over the Warriors last night saw a brawl break out in the first 2 minutes of the game which resulted in 3 players being ejected and may cause a possible suspension or 2 which has yet to be determined. Then we have the Suns who have lost 4 in a row at home. Yet, it’s Phoenix that’s a sizable home favorite tonight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m going to reject that temptation. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-15-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. 76ers | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Celtics -4.5 These teams have played once this season and it occurred at Philadelphia last Wednesday with Philadelphia winning 106-103 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Well, the oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result based on the Celtics opening as a 3.5-point road favorite and they quickly moved to 4.5. Since that loss, Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the previous 2 at home versus Indiana in which they went 1-1. The 76ers expended a ton of energy in those 2 contests against a Pacers team that pushes the pedal to the metal regarding pace. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky v. Kansas -6.5 | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Kentucky vs. Kansas 9:30 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Kansas -6.5 There’s a bit of betting value which has diminished on Kansas since they opened as just a 4.5-point favorite. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Kansas is the more experienced team in this matchup and has more cohesive to their game than Kentucky has at this early stage of the season. This line speaks volumes to me considering both teams are nationally ranked and each is a storied program. Yet, the #1 Jayhawks are a sizable favorite versus #17 Kentucky on a neutral floor to boot. They’re pleading with you to take the underdog here. My answer is no thanks and give me Kansas minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. 76ers | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ 76ers 7:10 ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Pacers +5.5 These team played in Philadelphia on Tuesday and the 76ers walked away with a 137-26 win while also covering as a 7.0-point favorite. Yet, the 76ers opened as a 6.5-point favorite for today’s game and now they’re down to 5.0 despite them going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 outings. The Pacers are very good offensively and to steal a boxing adage they give us a puncher’s chance as a result. Throughout their previous 6 contests, Indiana has averaged a robust 130.5 points scored per game and shot 51.7% from the field. Give me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-14-23 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +11 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Bowling Green 7:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bowling Green +11.0 Toledo began their season with a narrow 2-point loss at Illinois, and since then has won 9 straight games. Bowling Green began the season 2-4 and then proceeded to win 4 in a row to get to their current 6-4 record. Additionally, 2 of their 4 losses came on the road against nationally ranked Liberty 34-24 and Michigan 31-6 who as of this writing are a combined 20-0. Any College Football home underdog of 13.0 or less like Bowling Green currently is that’s currently coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like Toledo who’s coming off a conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2018. Those home underdogs were also 14-1 SU in those 15 games. Give me Bowling Green plus points. |
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11-14-23 | Duke -3.5 v. Michigan State | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET Game# 613-614 Play On: Duke -3.5 Both teams return 4 starters from a season ago and each is currently 1-1. However, Duke loss came at home to #3 Arizona by 5. Michigan State lost their season opener at home to then unranked James Madison and did so as a 16.5-point favorite. The Spartans have averaged 32 free throw attempts per game and made a somewhat mediocre 70% of those opportunities. Duke allowed 17 free throw attempts per game during their first 2 contests so it’s highly unlikely Michigan State will even come close to their season average today. These teams met last season and Duke won by 9 on a neutral floor and covered as a 6.5-point favorite. Give me Duke minus points. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Bills -7.0 The Broncos are coming off last week’s 24-9 upset win as a 7.0-point home underdog over Kansas City. That victory improved their season record to 3-5 (.375). Since 2014, Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in Monday night away games. The Broncos are also an abysmal 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was between -2.0 to +9.5 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo is coming off a Sunday night 24-18 loss at Cincinnati in a game they also failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Despite the Bills offense falling under heavy criticism, they’re still #7 in total yards, #7 in scoring, and #2 in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll be facing a Broncos defense that’s dead last in the NFL when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The Denver stop unit has especially struggled in non-division contests while allowing 36.2 points and 464.6 yards per game. The Bills struggles have come on the road where they’re 1-4. However, Buffalo is 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by 79.0 yards per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or greater like Buffalo that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus a non-division opponent like Denver with a win percentage of .333 or better who’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The average victory margin came by a decisive 19.0 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Texas @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Texans +7.0 The Bengals are surging while having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. However, this has a good possibility of being a flat spot for them on Sunday. They will be without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and their #1 pass catcher Jamaar Chase is listed as questionable. Additionally, Cincinnati is coming off a 24-18 home win over Buffalo in front of a national television audience and up next is a showdown with AFC North Division leader this coming Thursday. Sandwiched in between is this low profile game against a 4-4 Houston team. Furthermore, despite their 5-3 record, Cincinnati has been outgained by an average of 71.7 yards per game. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a massive performance in last Sunday’s 39-37 home win over Tampa Bay. Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season while being intercepted only once and has averaged 283.8 yards passing yards per game. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: 49ers -3.0 Talk about a fishy line. Jacksonville is a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. Conversely, San Francisco is 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3. Yet, it’s the 49ers who come up favorite in this spot. They’re pleading with you to take the home underdog here. My answer is thank you for the offer but I’m not taking the bait. Here’s the other thing, although Jacksonville is 6-2, both losses took place at home versus Houston and Kansas City. Their lone home win came over the Colts 37-20 in a game they were outgained in total yards by a wide margin of 354-233. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Saints v. Vikings +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Vikings +3.0 After starting the season 0-3, the Vikings have rebounded well and are now 5-4. That includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Minnesota defense has been superb while allowing only 18.0 points and 300.8 yards per game. New Orleans is a respectable 3-2 on the road thus far. However, all 3 of those wins have came over teams that currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. As a matter of fact, this will be their first road game of the season versus a team that currently has a winning record. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Iowa State v. BYU +8 | 45-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ BYU 10:15 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: BYU +8.0 Iowa State had their 3-game win streak halted last Saturday during a 28-21 loss to #17 Kansas. Following this game against 5-4 at BYU they’ll be hosting #7 Texas next. Needless to say this is a potential flat spot for the Cyclones. All 4 losses by BYU have come on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 at home including conference wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech. This is good situation and spot to back the home underdog. Give me BYU plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Florida v. LSU -14.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Florida @ LSU 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: LSU -14.5 The most alarming statistic for Florida is the fact they’ve allowed 40.3 points and 482.3 yards per game over the last 3 contests. That highly problematic when facing the prospect of facing an explosive LSU offense that’s averaging 54.0 points scored and 566.3 yards gained per game while going 4-0 at home. Florida is a poor 1-3 on the road this year. LSU is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus Florida. Give me LSU minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Utah +9 v. Washington | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Utah @ Washington 3:30 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Utah +9.0 Do you want to know why Washington is 9-0 and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture? Well I’m glad you asked. The Huskies last 5 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. The Washington defense has allowed 33 points or greater and 499 yards or more during 3 of their previous 4 games. Conversely Utah is 7-2 with their only losses coming to #6 Oregon and #12 Oregon State. Utah has scored 34 points or great and gained 445 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. The Utes productive running game will be highly effective in this game and in turn control time of possession while limiting offensive possessions for thus high scoring Huskies. Give me Utah plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona -10 v. Colorado | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Colorado 2:00 PM ET Game# 169-170 Play On: Arizona -10.0 After a promising 3-0 start that saw them ranked in the Top 25, Colorado has lost 5 of their last 6 and will be hard pressed to become bowl eligible. During this current 6-game funk, Colorado has allowed 33.9 points and 469.0 yards per contest. They will be play against a surging Arizona team that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing 13.3 points and 304.0 yards per game. Their last 2 of those wins coming off quality wins over UCLA and Oregon State. These are 2 teams headed on opposite paths. Give me Arizona minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas Tech +4 v. Kansas | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On Texas Tech +4.0 Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins versus Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Now they find themselves as just a small home favorite versus a 4-5 Texas Tech team. Additionally, up next for the #17 Jayhawks is #7 Texas. This seems like a fishy line and a potential flat for Kansas. Speaking of Texas Tech, they’re coming off a 35-28 home win over TCU. The Red Raiders are 1-3 SU on the road but have played much better during those contests than that poor record indicates. During those 4 away contests they are a +0.8-point differential and +78.0 yard per game differential. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |