Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-23 | Iowa v. Ohio State -3.5 | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Ohio State 2:00 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Ohio State -3.0 (5*) Iowa enters this contest on a 4-0 SU&ATS streak in their last 4. Conversely Ohio State is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5. Yet, it’s the Buckeyes who come up as the favorite. The under is a lock, right? If it looks too good to be true in sports betting than more times than not it is. Give me Ohio State minus the points. |
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01-21-23 | Texas A&M +5.5 v. Kentucky | 67-76 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Kentucky 2:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: Texas A&M +5.5 (5*) What’s the College Basketball world coming to. Mighty Kentucky is just a 5.0-point home favorite versus an unranked team. However, in this sports handicapper’s eyes is justified. Kentucky is just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in SEC play. Texas A&M has been outstanding defensively in SEC play while allowing just 57.6 points per game and permitting their opponents to shoot a miserable 35.4%. It’s no wonder they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS to start their conference schedule. Give me Texas A&M plus the points. |
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01-21-23 | Virginia v. Wake Forest +3.5 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Wake Forest 2:00 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: Wake Forest +3.5 (5*) Wake Forest is a perfect 10-0 at home this season. The Demon Deacons are also 6-1 SU&ATS in their last 7 overall. Wake is on a red-hot offensive streak over its last 5 averaging 84.2 points scored per game, shot 51%, and made 42.7% of its 3-point attempts. The Demon Deacons come off an 87-77 home win over Clemson. Wake has gone 7-0 SU&ATS at home since the start of last season immediately following scoring 85 points or more and won by an average of 26.2 points per game. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak. However, since the start of last season, Virginia is 0-7 ATS following a 4-game win streak. Give me Wake Forest plus the points. |
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01-19-23 | Hawaii +3 v. Cal-Irvine | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Hawaii @ UC-Irvine 10:00 ET Game# 827-828 Play On: Hawaii +3.0 (5*) UC-Irvine is an uninspiring 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home versus Division 1 opponents this season. As a matter of fact, the Anteaters are coming off a 73-65 home loss as a 2.0 point favorite versus UC-Santa Barbara in their previous outing. Irvine is #4 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.4%. However, only 32.5% of its field goal attempts are from 3-point territory, and they’ll be going up against a Hawaii team which is #6 nationally in 3-point defense. Hawaii is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10. This will mark only the 3rd time this season in which Hawaii has been an underdog. As previously mentioned, Hawaii defends the 3-point line very well. They’re also #14 nationally in 2-point defense as well. Give me Hawaii plus the small number. |
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01-19-23 | Youngstown State -14.5 v. Green Bay | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Youngstown State @ Wisconsin-Green Bay 8:00 ET Game# 791-792 Play On: Youngstown State -14.5 (5*) There’s no sugar coating it, Green Bay is a horrible team. They enter tonight’s Horizon League game having lost 9 in a row and failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. Green Bay ranks #363 or dead last in the country in defensive efficiency while giving up an average of 117.8 points to per their opponents 100 offensive possessions. They are just as bad offensively where they rank #345 nationally in offensive efficiency. Youngstown State is sneaky good despite playing a less than impressive strength of schedule. The Penguins have gone an excellent 5-1 ATS as a favorite in true road games this season. They’re also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 overall with 3 of the contests being away games, and they won those road tilts by 18.3 points per contest. Youngstown State is #25 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in in 3-point shooting at 40.8%, and #13 from the free throw line at a 78.7% conversion rate which is better than a handful of NBA teams. The Penguins aren’t very good defensively, but against an offensively challenged team like Green Bay they aren’t likely to be exposed in that area. Give me Youngstown State minus the points. |
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01-18-23 | Providence v. Marquette -7.5 | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Providence @ Marquette 9:00 PM ET Game# 711-712 Play On: Marquette -7.5 (5*) This line jumped right off the screen when first seeing it this morning. With all be considered it’s a heavy line which makes it very enticing for most sports bettors to get lured into taking the underdog. I for one isn’t that easily persuaded. These teams met a couple of weeks ago at Providence and the Friars won in double overtime. Marquette has the revenge factor and a home court advantage where they’ve gone 10-1 this season. The Golden Eagles are coming off an 80-76 loss at Xavier in its previous game. Marquette is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season immediately following a loss and won by 21.7 points per game. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season in conference home games with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per contest. Give me Marquette minus the points. |
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01-18-23 | TCU v. West Virginia -2.5 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
TCU @ West Virginia 7:00 PM ET Game# 691-692 Play On: West Virginia -2.5 (5*) This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense and when that occurs, I look for valid reasons to go against public perception. TCU is ranked #14 in the latest College Basketball AP Poll. Yet, they come up as an underdog against an unranked West Virginia team which has lost 5 in a row. However, when looking inside the numbers there's hidden betting value which supports to small home favorite. For starters, KenPom has West Virginia as possessing the 2nd strongest home court in all of College Basketball and worth an additional 4.6 points as a result. West Virginia's analytics clearly convey to me that they're much better than its uninspiring 10-7 record indicates. The Mountaineers are #21 nationally in offensive efficiency, #48 in defensive efficiency, and #38 in forcing turnovers. On a negative note, West Virginia commits a lot of fouls due to their aggressive defensive style. On the other hand, TCU is #203 nationally in free throw percentage. Lastly, West Virginia has traditionally been a good offensive rebounding team under current head coach Bob Huggins and this season is no different. On the other hand, TCU ranks a dismal #265 in defensive rebounding while allowing their opponents to reel in offensive rebounds on 30.9% of its missed shots. If it looks too good to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. This is a classic textbook example of such. Give me West Virginia minus the small number. |
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01-17-23 | Rhode Island v. Richmond -8 | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rhode Island @ Richmond 7:00 ET Game# 621-622 Play On: Richmond -8.0 (5*) Rhode Island is 0-5 SU in true road games this season. That includes 0-4 ATS in the last 5 while be outscored by 10.5 points per game. Richmond is coming off a 71-63 loss at St. Bonaventure and they’re now 6-3 during its last 3 games. As a matter of fact the Spiders are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 immediately after a loss and won by an average of 16.7 per game. Furthermore, Richmond is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home with an average victory margin of 16.5 points per game. Give me Richmond minus the points. |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +2.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 46 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 151-152 Play On: Tampa Bay +2.5 (10*) The Cowboys have gone 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away favorite of 7.5 or less and when facing an opponent who has a losing record. Dallas allowed an alarmingly high 32.3 points per game in those losses. Dallas had a stellar regular season record of 12-5 (.705). However, NFL Postseason away favorites of 2.5 or less who have a win percentage of worse than .722 are 0-10 ATS and 2-8 SU since 1980. Dallas has an average line difference of +3.94 points per game. Conversely, Tampa Bay is at -6.08 points per game. The Bucks enter the postseason with an uninspiring 8-9 (.471) record. Dallas has gone just 15-17 in their last 32 away games. This sets up a powerful never lost NFL Playoffs betting angle which is displayed below that goes against conventional NFL point-spread handicapping wisdom. NFL Playoffs home teams like Tampa Bay who have a win percentage of .625 or worse and their average line difference per game is -0.1 or worse, versus an opponent like Dallas who’s won 16 or fewer of its last 32 away games and their average line difference per game is +0.5 or better, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home teams won those 14 postseason contests by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me Tampa Bay plus the points. |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -13.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Buffalo -13.5 (5*) Buffalo enters this Wildcard Round on a 7-game win streak. As a matter of fact, the Bills have a season record of 13-3, and those trio of defeats came only by a combined 8 points. With a little bit of luck, we could be talking about an NFL team having an undefeated regular season for a first time since New England did it in 2007. In any event, 1 of those 3 losses came at Miami in a game the Bills outgained the Dolphins by a massive 285 yards. Buffalo won the rematch at home 32-29 and racked up another 446 yards of total offense. This time around, Miami will be missing Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and most likely will start 3rd stringer Skylar Thompson. Buffalo possesses a strong home field having gone 24-8 in their last 32 played in Orchard Park and that includes 3-0 during postseason action. The last 2 of which were victories by scores of 17-3 over Baltimore and 47-17 against New England. Miami limps into the post season with an uninspiring 9-8 record and that includes going 1-5 in their last 6. This will be Miami’s first playoff game since 1/8/2017 when they lost at Pittsburgh 30-12. Conversely, since that last Miami postseason appearances, Buffalo has played in 12 playoff games and all under current head coach Sean McDermott. Don’t undervalue postseason experience when handicapping at this time of year, and a huge advantage Buffalo. Since 1995, NFL Playoffs 1st Round home favorites of 10.5 or more like Buffalo who have won 24 or more of its last 32 at home, versus an opponent like Miami with a win percentage of .647 or worse, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The average victory margin for those 13 contests came by an average of 19.0 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
LA Chargers at Jacksonville 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Jacksonville +2.5 (5*) The Chargers closed the regular season with a 31-28 loss at Denver. They allowed an anemic Denver offense to rack up 471 yards of total offense. The Chargers faced Jacksonville at home earlier this season (9/25) and got hammered 38-14 as a 6.5-point favorite. Jacksonville was revived from the dead after a 4-8 start to the season and finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. The last of those wins coming in a 20-16 home win over Tennessee and enabled them to win the AFC South Division with a pedestrian 9-8 record. However, momentum is a scary thing for opponents going up against it on the road in the postseason. What’s been extremely encouraging has been the Jaguars defense over its last 3 games. During that stretch they allowed a mere 7.3 points and 272.0 yards per game. Putting that into proper perspective, the Jags held their opponents to 13.3 points and 81.3 yards below their season average which is a sign of a unit jelling at the right time. By, the way, Jacksonville won their last 4 at home with 3 of those coming as underdogs. One more note, the jaguars Doug Pederson has gone 14-4 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as a home underdog, and his teams outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. NFL teams like Jacksonville that are facing an opponent like the Chargers who are playing with same season revenge stemming from a defeat in which they scored 14 points or fewer, and those oppponents are coming off a road loss, resulted in teams like the Jaguars going 40-13 (75.5%) SU over the previous 5 seasons. Give me Jacksonville plus the small number. |
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01-14-23 | Iowa State +8.5 v. Kansas | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*) There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points. Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games. Give me Iowa State plus the points. |
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01-14-23 | Southern Miss -5.5 v. Arkansas State | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State 3:00 PM ET Game# 659-660 Play On: Southern Miss -5.5 (5*) I’d rather not lay points on the road with such a massive card. Nevertheless, this is an exception to that preference. Arkansas State is a horrible team. They’re 9-9 which is seemingly not associated with a team being objectively being called horrible. In any event, 3 of their wins have come over teams that aren’t Division 1 programs. Arkansas State is #319 in adjusted offensive efficiency and #276 defensively in that same category. Arkansas State should have no excuses why they’ve been so bad since their strength of schedule has been the 14th easiest in the country to this point. The Red Wolves are on a current 4-game losing streak in which they’ve been outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game. Southern Miss will look to rebound from a 89-67 blowout loss at Marshall. That defeat dropped their season record to a still very good 14-4. Southern Miss followed its previous 3 losses with a win. Give me Southern Miss minus the points. |
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01-14-23 | UCF v. Tulane -2 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
UCF @ Tulane 2:00 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Tulane -2.0 (5*) UCF is coming off an emotionally draining 107-104 double overtime home win over Memphis who is one of the favorites to win the AAC. Now they travel to New Orleans to take on a better than advertised Tulane team. The Green Wave are coming off road win in each of its previous games at Temple and at SMU. Tulane is 7-1 at home this season. Tulane is #3 nationally in fewest offensive turnovers committed. Conversely, UCF is #298 in that identical category. They’re also #3 from the free throw line while converting on a superb 81.6% of its attempts. Give me Tulane minus the number. |
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01-14-23 | Davidson v. George Mason -4 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
Davidson @ George Mason 12:00 ET Game# 601-602 Play On: George Mason -4.0 (5*) Davidson has gone a dismal 3-7 in their last 10 which includes bad home losses to Delaware and Northeastern. George Mason will be in a sour mood after coming off a 63-62 loss at St. louis. Now they return home where it has gone a perfect 9-0 this season. Davidson is #316 nationally in 3-point shooting. George Mason is #32 at defending the 3-point line. So much for the underdog’s ability to knock down 3-point shots as the great equalizer. Give me George Mason minus the points. |
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01-13-23 | VCU v. Dayton -7 | 63-62 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
VCU @ Dayton 9:00 PM ET Game# 881-882 Play On: Dayton -7.0 (5*) VCU is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in conference play, and much of their success can be attributed to making a red-hot 48.6% of its 3-point shots during those contests. However, they’ll be facing a Dayton team who ranks #3 nationally in 3-points defense while allowing the opposition to make a mere 26.8% of their long-distance attempts. Dayton was ranked in the Top 25 in most preseason polls. Then they started the season 5-5 and were written off as being overrated. Ever since then, they’ve reeled of 7 straight wins. Included in this current win streak is a 4-0 SU&ATS versus conference opponents and with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me Dayton minus the points. |
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01-13-23 | Warriors v. Spurs +9 | 144-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Golden State @ San Antonio 7:40 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: San Antonio +9.0 (3*) Golden State is hands down the better team in this matchup. However, it’s my job to beat the point-spread and assess the situation pertaining the topic for both teams. Golden State has 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and was outscored by an average of 9.7 points per game while being a favorite on each occasion. As a matter of fact, they shot 37.5% and 38.5% from the floor in their previous 2. Conversely, San Antonio has gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU during its last 5 at home with their average point-spread being +6.4. Give me San Antonio plus the points. |
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01-10-23 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -5.5 | 50-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Iowa State 8:00 PM ET Game# 835-836 Play On: Iowa State -5.5 (5*) These teams are headed on opposite paths right now. Texas Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and those were its first 3 Big 12 games of the season. Their most recent loss took place at home when they were defeated by Oklahoma in overtime. The Red Raider season record is now 10-5 and that’s while facing a strength of schedule which ranks #280 nationally. The Red Raiders are 0-5 this season versus teams ranked in the Top 100. All 10 of its wins have come over teams ranked #145 or higher. Iowa State enters today’ game on an 8-game win streak. Their last 2 wins came as an away underdog at Oklahoma and TCU. The Cyclones have gone 6-2 this season versus opponents who are currently ranked #73 or better. Iowa State is #12 nationally in defensive efficiency and they’re best in the country at forcing turnovers. Teams that have faced Iowa State this season have committed turnovers on 29.9% of its offensive possessions. Texas Tech has committed turnovers on 20.3% of its offensive possessions which ranks a terrible #277 nationally. Give me Iowa State minus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*) Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival. Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
NY Jets @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Miami -3.0 (5*) Any NFL favorite of 3.0 or more like Miami that has a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent like the Jets who is coming off SU favorite losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they possess a win percentage of ..400 to .490, resulted in those teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average margin of victory in those 14 wins came by 16.0 points per game. Give me Miami minus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Panthers v. Saints -3.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
Carolina @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) I can’t help but think that Carolina will be mentally spent after what transpired last week. They were presented with an excellent opportunity to steal an NFL South Division Title when it seemed unfathomable to think after firing their head coach and trading away its best player earlier this season. We’re talking about a Panthers team that started the season 1-5 and was still a terrible 2-7 through 9 games. However, in a must win game last week at Tampa Bay and their division title hopes handing in the balance, Carolina sustained a heartbreaking 30-24 loss and we eliminated from contention. That’s a tough emotional obstacle to overcome when playing in a regular season finale just 7 days later, and do so on the road to boot. Despite now being 6-10, Carolina has gone a miserable 1-6 on the road. Additionally, since 2020 Carolina is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS when coming off a loss by 6 points or fewer, and that worsens to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS if those were away games. New Orleans is finishing the year strong despite being eliminated from realistic playoff aspiration a long while ago. The Saint enter Week 18 riding a 3-game win streak in which they allowed a mere 12.7 points and 294.0 yards per contest. Ride the season ending momentum with the Saints. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
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01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Dallas 8:10 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Dallas -7.0 (5*) They’re coming off last night’s 108-102 home loss to Brooklyn. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS on the road this season when facing a team like Dallas that has a winning record. New Orleans is also 1-5 SU&ATS during its previous 6 away games. Dallas is also coming off a 124-95 home blowout loss to Boston on Thursday night. That embarrassing defeat ended a Dallas 7-game win streak. Dallas will have a huge rest advantage tonight. The Mavericks will be playing in only their 3rd game over the last 7 days. Conversely, New Orleans will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Give me Dallas minus the points. |
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01-07-23 | Creighton +7 v. Connecticut | 60-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Creighton @ Connecticut 12:00 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Creighton +7.0 (5*) Creighton has had a topsy-turvy start to the season. They won their first 6 then lost their next 6 which was followed by a current 3-0 SU&ATS stretch. Those 3 wins all came over conference opponents and by a substantial victory margin of 17.7 points per game. During their 6-game losing streak, 4 of those defeats came by a combined 10 points. The Blue Jays faced the 15th toughest schedule during its 1st 15 games and are much better than their 9-6 record indicates. They may be catching UConn at just the right time. After starting the season 14-0 and being ranked #1, the Huskies have dropped 2 in a row with both coming by 12 versus Xavier and Providence. Give me Creighton plus the points. |
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01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors -3.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
New York @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Toronto -3.5 (5*) This line makes little sense to me and when that occurs, I tend to lean toward a contrarian approach. The Knicks enter today on a 3-game win streak in addition to capturing 7 of its last 9 away contests. Conversely, Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 and 10 of their previous 13 games. Yet, Toronto opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and is now up to a 3.5-point chalk. This despite most tickets and money being wagered on New York as of early Friday morning. This is a classic example of reverse line movement. Give me Toronto minus the points. |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Mavericks 7:40 PM ET Game# 579-580 Play On: Celtics -2.5 (4*) This line is a bit of a head scratcher with all considered. Dallas is currently on a 7-game win streak and is 15-5 at home. Boston will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days and the first 2 were forgetful. The Celtics were inexplicable hammered at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night 150-117 as an 11.5-point favorite. On their 1st game of this road trip, they were defeated 123-111 at Denver. They allowed Denver and Oklahoma City to shoot a combined 58.2% which is absolutely atrocious defense. Yet. Boston is a small road favorite against a red-hot Nuggets team. This looks like an ideal situation to jump all over the home underdog. However, it’s seldom that easy when it comes to sports betting. I am going with a contrarian mindset in this spot. Give me Boston minus the small number. |
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01-04-23 | Illinois -3 v. Northwestern | 60-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET Game# 723-724 Play On: Illinois -3.0 (5*) Both teams are very good defensively. However, Northwestern is horrible offensively and Illinois isn’t. As a matter of fact, Northwestern has shot 34.5% or worse in 5 of its last 8 games. That will ultimately be the deciding factor in this contest. Northwestern was exposed in a 16-point home loss to Ohio State in their previous game played which by all indications showed they’re not nearly as good as their then 10-2 record indicated. That makes Northwestern is 0-3 versus Power Conference teams this season with 2 of those defeats occurring at home, and they lost by an average of 15.3 points per game. They also were blown out by Pittsburgh at home 87-58. Illinois has won their last 8 games against Northwestern. The Illini have also posted quality wins over nationally ranked Texas and UCLA. Give me Illinois minus the small number. |
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01-04-23 | St. Joe's v. Dayton -14 | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
St. Joseph’s @ Dayton 7:00 PM Game# 657-658 Play On: Dayton -14.0 (5*) Dayton is finally starting to round into form. The Flyers were a preseason Top 25 team but failed to live up to expectations throughout the first 4 month of the season. However, the Flyers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 with an average victory margin of 21.6 points per game. Dayton is also 8-0 at home with an average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. During their current win streak, Dayton has shot an outstanding 51.3% and made 38.6% of its 3-point attempts. The Flyers rank #18 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.7 points per 100 of their opponent’s offensive possessions. They’ll be facing a St. Joe’s team that is an uninspiring 6-7 this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in College Basketball to this point. Give me Dayton minus the points. |
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01-04-23 | Penn State +4.5 v. Michigan | 69-79 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan 7:00 PM ET Game# 683-684 Play On: Penn State +4.5 (5*) Playing on the road in a hostile environment won’t affect Penn State as it would many other teams. After all, according to KenPom the Nittany Lions are the most experienced team in the country. All you must look at is the fact they turn the ball over on a mere 12.9% of its offensive possessions which ranks best in the country. This will be the Nittany Lions 3rd true road game of the season. They won by 15 at Illinois and lost in double overtime to Clemson on the previous 2 occasions. Penn State is 11-3 on the year and that includes a current 5-game win streak. Conversely, Michigan is just 8-5 and includes 5-5 in their last 10. Give me Penn State plus the points. |
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01-03-23 | Virginia -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 65-68 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Pittsburgh 9:00 PM ET Game# 633-634 Play On: Virginia -5.5 (5*) The sportsbooks are unimpressed with Pittsburgh despite their 3-0 ACC record. Virginia is Top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have already recorded 3 wins this season versus teams (Baylor, Illinois, Michigan) that are ranked in KenPom’s Top 50. Virginia is the 4th most experienced team in the country and their core group have enjoyed much past successes. The point being, they will be unfazed by playing on the road against a team that quite frankly has played over their heads thus far. Give me Virginia minus the points. |
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01-03-23 | Kansas v. Texas Tech +1.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Texas Tech 9:00 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On Texas Tech +1.5 (5*) According to KenPom, Texas Tech has the #1 home court advantage in the country which they deem to be worth 4.7 points per contest. The Red Raiders are a perfect 8-0 at home this season and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. The Red Raiders are adept at getting to the free throw line averaging 23 free throw attempts per game and that goes up to 26 at home. Texas Tech is coming off a 67-61 loss at TCU in their previous outing. However, they followed up their previous 2 losses with wins by 14 over Georgetown and a 32-point rout of Louisville. Give me Texas Tech over Kansas. |
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01-03-23 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -8.5 | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Seton Hall @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Creighton -8.5 (5*) Despite their 8-6 record, this is a very good Creighton team that’s played the 13th most difficult schedule in the county to this point. The Blue Jays are #34 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #28 defensively. Seaton Hall comes in with a comparable 8-7 record and having played the 9th toughest schedule. Yet they find themselves as a heft underdog in this matchup. The Pirates are solid defensively but their offensive prowess leaves much to be desired. Give me Creighton minus the points. |
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01-02-23 | Utah +1.5 v. Penn State | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*) Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality. Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769). College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001. Give me Utah over Penn State. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*) This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th. Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*) The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games. Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit. NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Rams +6.5 v. Chargers | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Rams +6.5 (5*) Don’t expect the 5-10 Rams to lay down in this game just because their playoff hopes were put to rest for few weeks now. All you need to do in look at their 51-14 home win over Denver last week. Granted, the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. However, we are a sizable underdog in a game in which both teams share the same stadium. Nonetheless, the Rams are the designated road team on Sunday. NFL regular away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like the Rams who are playing after Game 14, and they’re coming off a home win, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 going 18-0 ATS since 2014. Those underdogs also went a very respectable 9-9 SU in those contests. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Patriots | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 (5*) I firmly believe there’s been too much emphasis on Tua being out for this huge AFC East battle with playoff implications. The Dolphins backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has started and played in some big games when a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Miami is coming off a 26-20 loss to Green Bay in a game they were a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, New England was handed a 22-18 loss by Cincinnati and failed to cover as a 3.0-point home underdog. That dropped the Patriots season record to 7-8. NFL division road underdogs like Miami that are coming off a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent like New England that has a losing record and is coming off a home underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road underdogs going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdogs not only covered in all those contests, but they won each one outright and by an average of 7.2 points per game. Give me the Dolphins plus the points. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*) Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense. Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State +7 v. Alabama | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*) Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game. Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win. Give me Kansas State plus the points. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*) Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games. Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season. Give me Florida State minus the points. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech +3.5 | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*) These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*) Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin. Give me Duke minus the points. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET Game# 241-242 Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*) East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season. Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale. East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games. Give me East Carolina minus the points. |
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12-26-22 | Wolves +3.5 v. Heat | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Timberwolves +3.5 (5*) Since the start of last season, Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU versus Miami and with an average victory margin of 8.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since 12/30/2018. Minnesota has gone 8-1 SU versus Miami. Miami has drained their betting supporters out of a lot of money thus far when playing at home. They’ve gone just 9-8 SU and 3-13-1 ATS at home this season. That includes going 1-4 SU and 0-5 during its last 5 at home. Give me the Timberwolves plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders +7 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Commanders @ 49ers 4:05 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Commanders +7.0 (5*) Washington still controls their own postseason destiny despite last week’s disappointing 20-12 loss to the New York Giants. They currently have a ½ game lead over Detroit and Seattle for the final NFC wildcard berth. The Commanders have gone an excellent 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 away games. The 49ers have things locked up in the NFC West and it’s now a matter of whether they can catch Minnesota for the #2 seed in the NFC. The 49ers defense has received a ton of accolades and rightfully so. Nonetheless, Washington has allowed 21 points or fewer in each of their last 10 games while also holding opponents to less than 300 yards in 5 of those contests. Washington will give an excellent San Francisco team all they can handle and then some. Give me the Commanders plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Giants @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Giants +4.0 (5*) The Giants are coming off last Sunday’s huge 20-10 road win over Washington in a game that had major postseason implications. That victory improved their season record to 8-5-1 (.607). The Giants have gone a very profitable 5-1 ATS on the road this season and won 4 of those SU. Meanwhile, Minnesota overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit in last Saturday’s 39-36 overtime win versus Indianapolis. Despite their impressive 11-3 record, Minnesota is averaging outscoring their opponents by 0.2 points per game. They’ve seen 5 of their 11 wins come by 4 points or fewer. The Vikings defense has really struggled during the 2nd half of the season. Specifically speaking, throughout their previous 6 contests, Minnesota has allowed 31.3 points and 440.7 yards per game. NFL teams like the Giants that are coming off a division win in which they allowed 7 or more points, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, versus a team like Minnesota who’s coming of a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in teams like the Giants going 17-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2017. Furthermore, they went 14-4 SU in those exact situations as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Baltimore -6.0 (5*) The strength of Atlanta’s offense is their running game and especially so during the 2nd half of this season. However, they’ll be facing a Baltimore defense which has held 10 of 14 opponents this season to 88 yards or less rushing and is #3 in the NFL against the run. On the other hand, Baltimore possesses the #2 rushing offense in the NFL at 164.7 yards per game. The Ravens will be facing an Atlanta defense which has allowed an average of 171.2 yards per game on the ground over their previous 5 contests. Give me Baltimore minus the points. |
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12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Knicks -5.0 (5*) The Knicks will be in a sour mood after suffering a 113-106 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. That ended a 8-game win streak for New York. Chicago will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off away underdog SU wins in their previous 2. However, they’ve gone 0-2 SU&ATS versus New York this season with both coming on their home floor. They lost those 2 contests to New York by 8 and 23 points and were a combined -28 on the boards. Give me New York minus the points. |
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12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 47 h 35 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET Game# 229-230 Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*) UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State. Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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12-22-22 | Kent State -6.5 v. UTEP | 47-46 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Kent State @ UTEP Game# 871-872 Play On: Kent State -6.5 (5*) Most times than not I shy away from backing sizable road favorites. However, this matchup is an exception. UTEP is a horrible offensive team. Additionally, the Miners have committed turnovers in 21.6% of their offensive possession this season which ranks #306 nationally. To compound that issue, they’ll be facing a Kent State tonight that forces turnovers in 24.1% of their opponent’s offensive possessions which is 23rd best nationally. Kent State has played the way more difficult schedule than UTEP has faced to this point. The Golden Flashes are 9-3 with their only 3 losses coming at #2 Houston by 5, at #11 Gonzaga by 7and by 2 at Charleston (12-1). Give me Kent State minus the points. |
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12-22-22 | George Washington v. Washington State -9.5 | 64-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
George Washington vs. Washington State 9:00 PM ET Game# 855-856 Play On: Washington State -9.5 (5*) George Washington is 6-4 thus far but they’ve been beneficiaries of playing the 5th easiest schedule in the country to this point. Conversely, Washington State is an uninspiring 4-6 but has played the 45th toughest schedule and has been very competitive in most of those losses against high quality teams. The Cougars have made a stellar 38.4% of their 3-point shots this season which ranks #32 nationally. Washington State will also have a huge advantage on both the offensive and defensive glass in this matchup. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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12-20-22 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. Florida | 62-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. Florida 9:30 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Oklahoma +3.5 (5*) This game will be played at a neutral site at Charlotte, North Carolina. Both teams are very good 3-point shooting teams. However, Oklahoma is #16 nationally in 3-point shooting defense while holding their opponents to a mere 28.3% conversion rate. On the other hand, Florida is #247 out of 363 Division 1 teams in that same category with opponents making 35.5 % of its 3-point tries. Give me Oklahoma plus the points. |
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12-20-22 | Seton Hall v. Xavier -8 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Seton Hall @ Xavier vs. 8:30 PM ET Game# 625-626 Play On: Xavier -8.0 (5*) Xavier enters tonight’s game on a 5-game win streak and had a +11 rebound per game differential in those contests. Additionally, during their current win streak, Xavier had an excellent 24-14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, Seton Hall has a dismal 10 assist to 16 turnover ration throughout it’s previous 5 contests. The Musketeers are a well-balanced offensive team which ranks #2 nationally in 3-point shooting (42.3%) and #33 in 2-point shooting percentage (55.9%). According to KenPom, the Musketeers are #9 in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 115.1 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. Give me Xavier minus the points. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*) This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog. Give me Liberty plus the points. |
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12-19-22 | Hornets v. Kings -9.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Sacramento -9.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-19-22 | Jazz v. Cavs -6 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Utah @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Cleveland -6.0 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-19-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Philadelphia -7.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-18-22 | Iona +3 v. New Mexico | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Iona @ New Mexico Game# 761-762 Play On: Iona +3.0 (5*) This line jumped off the board at me since 7-2 Iona is only a 3.0-point road underdog versus a 10-0 New Mexico team. However, the Lobos have played an extremely soft schedule, and KenPom clearly indicates that as they have them at #267 out of 363 Division 1 teams with regards to strength of schedule. Conversely, Iona is #121 in that category and enters today on a 5-game win streak which includes an 84-62 win over #64 St. Louis. Despite New Mexico being undefeated, KenPom has New Mexico ranked #58 which is extremely high for a team from the Metro Athletic Association Conference. The Gaels are also very good defensively which is evidenced by the being #5 in percentage of blocked shots and #34 in 2-points field goal percentage at 44.1%. Iona doesn’t beat themselves as they commit turnovers on only 14.3% of its offensive possession which is 8th best in the country. Give me Iona plus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*) Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins. The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings. Give me Carolina minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles -8.5 v. Bears | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Philadelphia -8.5 (5*) Philadelphia’s offense has been red-hot throughout their previous 3 contests while averaging 41.0 points and 463.3 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off last week’s convincing 48-22 road win over the Giants. They’ll be facing a Chicago team that’s gone 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 and allowed 33.5 points per game during that stretch. NFL favorites of 6.5 or greater playing after Game 8 like Philadelphia who possess a winning record, and they’re coming off a road win by 21 points or more, versus a team like Chicago with a losing record, resulted in those favorites of 6.5 or greater going 22-3 (88%) ATS since 2013. Give me Philadelphia minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Texas A&M v. Memphis -6 | 79-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Memphis 7:00 PM ET Game# 677-678 Play On: Memphis -6.0 (5*) Texas A&M is 6-3 and all 3 losses have come against unranked teams. Those defeats came against Colorado by 28, Murray State by 9, and Boise State by 15. Memphis is better than even their 8-3 record indicates. Their 3 losses have come by just a combined 10 points with the latest of which occurring on Tuesday 91-88 at #4 Alabama. The Tigers already have posted 5 wins over Power Conference teams. Give me Memphis minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Cleveland 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Cleveland -2.5 (5*) Here we are entering Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have a 5-8 team (Cleveland) as a favorite over a 9-4 (Baltimore) opponent. Yes, Baltimore is without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but this line still speaks volumes to me. NFL betting history over the last 27 season has shown that losing teams that are favorite over winning teams this late in the year have been a strong play on. NFL favorites like Cleveland playing after Game 12 with a losing record, versus teams like Baltimore who own a win percentage of .692 or better, resulted in those favorites going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS since 1996. If those losing teams were favorites of 3.5 or less, they improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS throughout that identical time span with a substantial average victory margin of 17.6 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Toledo v. Marshall -3 | 85-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Marshall 3:30 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Marshall -3.0 (5*) Both teams are explosive offensively and neither shies away from playing a fast tempo game. However, Marshall is the better defensive team in this matchup and that will ultimately be the difference. Additionally, the Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU and 5-1 at home thus far with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. Furthermore, Marshal is 3-0 SU&ATS versus teams (Ohio, Akron, Miami-Ohio) from the MAC this season and won by 17.0 points per contest. Toledo is allowing 79.7 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 48.1% in games played on the road or neutral sites. Give me Marshall minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State -8 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*) This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses. Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC. Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 42 h 41 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Indianapolis +4.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me when considering the disparity between these team’s records. Minnesota is 10-3 while the Colts come in at 4-8-1 and that includes losing 6 of its last 7 games. Additionally, Minnesota is 6-1 at home this season and Indianapolis is 2-4-1 on the road including a 54-19 loss at Dallas in their previous game. Yet, the Vikings are just a 4.0-point home favorite. However, despite their 10-3 record the Vikings have average 24.0 points scored and 24.1 points allowed per game. Yes, the Colts allowed 54 points to Dallas in their previous outing, but more had to do with them committing 5 turnovers than shoddy defensive play. As a matter fact, the Cowboys outgained the Colts by only 73 yards in that 35-point win. Minnesota is coming off a loss of their own by a score of 34-23 at Detroit. NFL non-division away underdogs like Indianapolis who are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing a team like Minnesota who is coming off a SU loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-0 ATS since 1983. What’s even more astonishing is those away underdogs also went an incredible 19-3 SU in those contests. The average line in those 22 games was 6.3. Give me Indianapolis plus the points. |
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12-16-22 | Florida Gulf Coast v. St Bonaventure -3 | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida Gulf Coast @ St. Bonaventure 7:00 ET Game# 1645-1646 Play On: St. Bonaventure -3.0 (5*) The last true road game that FGCU played was on 12-4 and they were blown out by 32 points by Florida Atlantic. Additionally, since 2020, FGCU is 0-6 SU&ATS as an away/neutral site underdog of 6.0 or less and lost by an average of 12.3 points per game. Conversely, St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Bonnies average line in those 5 home games was -7.2. Give me St. Bonaventure minus the points. |
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12-13-22 | Memphis v. Alabama -6.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Alabama 9:00 PM ET Game# 617-618 Play On: Alabama -6.5 (5*) Alabama is coming off a scintillating come from behind upset win at then #1 Houston in their previous game. It was right around this time a season ago when they knocked off a higher ranked Houston team at home and then followed that up with a 14-point upset loss at Memphis. They’re not about to fall in that same trap again. This isn’t a great shooting Alabama team but they’re relentless on the offensive glass while averaging 14 second chance possessions per game which ranks 4th in the country. According to KenPom, Memphis ranks 289th out of 363 Division 1 teams when it comes to defensive rebounding. They also are averaging 25 free throw attempts per contest. Additionally, the Crimson Tide rank 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Alabama has faced the 2th toughest schedule in the country thus far so they’re certainly battle tested. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Seattle -3.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 23-10 home win over a hapless Denver team which is now on current 0-4 and 1-8 losing runs. They were also the lowest scoring offensive team in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week as Seattle posses the #5 scoring offense in the NFL and they’ve averaged a lofty 28.6 points scored per game over their last 6 contests. Moreover, Carolina hasn’t won 2 consecutive games all season long. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off last week’s 27-23 road win over the Rams which improved their season record to 7-5. They’re tied with the Giants for the final NFC Wildcard spot and hold the tiebreaker over New York because they already beat them earlier this season. With the Giants facing Philadelphia (11-1) this week and considering this is a very winnable game for the Seahawks, it bodes well for Seattle playing with a high degree of urgency and desperation. Give me Seattle minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-08-22 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -6.5 | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rutgers @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 873-874 Play On: Ohio State -6.5 (5*) Rutgers is coming off a home upset win versus #14 Indiana. Now they go on the road to face #25 Ohio State who is 4-0 at home and outscored those opponents by an average of 30.8 points per game. During their last 3 contests which included games versus Texas Tech and Duke, Ohio State averaged 82.7 points scored per game while shooting an excellent 50.3% from the floor. The Buckeyes are also 5th best nationally from the charity stripe converting 79.1% of its free throw attempts this season. Ohio State doesn’t beat themselves and especially so of late as they’ve committed an average of only 7.8 turnovers per contest throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Ohio State minus the points. |
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12-07-22 | Dayton v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | 49-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Dayton @ Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET Game# 691-692 Play On: Virginia Tech -6.5 (5*) This is a Dayton teams that had lofty expectations heading into this season and was even rated in the Top 25 preseason AP Poll. However, they're off to a disappointing 5-4 start which includes 0-4 SU&ATS in games not played at home. Virginia Tech is a sneaky good team and has posted a stellar 8-1 record. The Hokies are coming off a statement win by 8 over North Carolina who was ranked #1 earlier this season. Virginia Tech will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season's 62-57 loss at Dayton. Give me Virginia Tech minus the points. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +3 v. Texas | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Texas 7:00 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Illinois +3.0 (5*) We have #2 Texas as just a short favorite versus a 2-loss Illinois team. That line tells me most of what I need to know. Illinois’ 2 losses came at the hands of #3 Virginia (7-0) by 9 and at #13 Maryland (8-0) by 5. They also own a win over #19 UCLA in which they overcame a 15-point 2nd half deficit. The strength of schedule meter that I use indicates that Illinois is +4.5 over Texas. Anything +4.0 or greater is significant in a game between Power Conference teams and must be accounted for when handicapping College Basketball. Give me Illinois plus the points. |
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12-05-22 | Thunder +6.5 v. Hawks | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
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12-05-22 | Clippers v. Hornets +4.5 | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bengals +2.5 (5*) Some will make be a big deal about the revenge factor after Cincinnati knocked of Kansas City twice last season. As a matter of fact, one of the Bengals wins occurred in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. I’ll take the opposite approach and say Cincinnati has the confidence it can beat arguably the most dominant team in the AFC over the past 4 seasons. The Bengals are 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-division home games. They’re also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact role dating back to last season. Cincinnati is currently riding a 3-game win streak with the last 2 of those victories. coming in away games. NFL regular season home underdogs of 3.0 or less that are coming off 3 or more wins in a row with the last 2 coming in away games, and they possess a win percentage of .562 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs of 3.0 or less going a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS. Give me the Bengals plus the small number. |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*) Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 3:00 PM ET Game# 761-762 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) There’s no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | St. John's v. Iowa State -6 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
St. John’s @ Iowa State 3:00 PM ET Game# 757-758 Play On: Iowa State -6.0 (5*) There’s no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Jets +3.0 (5*) This is another line that jump right off the screen at me, and it hasn’t budged all week. The NFL North Division leading Vikings (9-2) as only a 3.0-point favorite against an upstart Jets team (7-4). Public perception will clearly lean toward the Vikings. However, public perception is wrong more times than right. NFL road teams in regular season action Games 12 through 17 who have a point-spread parameter of +3.0 to 2.5 (Jets) and are coming off a home win by 21 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .538 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) with a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2015. The average victory margin came by 8.8 points per game. It’s a rare but perfect NFL betting angle which makes sense as it applies and aligns to my opening line. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*) North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State. Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value. Give me Clemson minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*) Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002. College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980. Give me Purdue plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia -17.5 | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*) Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover. Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests. Give me Georgia minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*) These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch. Give me Fresno State plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*) Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages. Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer. College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Troy minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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12-02-22 | Gonzaga -2.5 v. Baylor | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Gonzaga @ Baylor 8:00 PM ET Game# 879-880 Play On: Gonzaga -2.5 (5*) Baylor is coming off a humiliating 26-point loss at unranked Marquette in their previous game in a game they opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Well, I faded them in that game and have no problem doing it again in this spot. What was more alarming for me in that blowout defeat is that the Bears allowed Marquette to shoot 58%. They also allowed Norfolk State and Virginia to shoot 50% or better in games earlier this season. Early returns tell me that this may be the poorest Baylor defensive team since Scott Drew became their head coach. That will surely be an issue tonight versus a Gonzaga team that shoots 51% from the field and has converted on 40% of its 3-point shot attempts thus far in the season. Gonzaga is off to a 5-2 start to the season against an extremely difficult schedule. Their only 2 losses came against #1 Texas and #5 Purdue. However, they also own quality wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, and Xavier. Give me Gonzaga minus the small number. |
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12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -8.5 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*) UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action. Give me UTSA minus the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers +4.5 v. Kings | 114-137 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Indiana +4.5 (5*) Sacramento put together a 7-game win streak this season and it was their longest unbeaten run since 2004. However, since that time, the Kings have gone 0-3 SU&ATS and were outscored by 10.7 points per game. Indiana has gone 12-3 ATS throughout their previous 15 contests and won 11 of those games straight up. The Pacers are also 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 away games. NBA teams that have covered 12 or more of their previous 15 games and are playing in its 8th game or more over the past 14 days, resulted in those teams going 26-6 ATS (81.2%) since 2018. Give me the Indiana Pacers plus the points. |
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11-30-22 | North Carolina v. Indiana -4 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Indiana 9:15 PM ET Game# 719-720 Play On: Indiana -4.0 (5*) Up until this lates AP Poll came out on Monday, North Carolina has been ranked #1. Subsequently, after a pair of losses in each of their previous 2 games to Alabama and Iowa State the Tar Heels plummeted all the way down to #18. On the other hand, #10 Indiana is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS thus far while outscoring those opponents by an enormous 29.5 points per game. The Hoosiers have been dynamic offensively while averaging 88.8 points scored per game and have shot a scalding hot 55.9% from the field while doing so. Give me Indiana minus the points. |
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11-30-22 | Ohio State v. Duke -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Duke 7:15 PM ET Game# 675-676 Play On: Duke -5.0 (5*) Duke is off to what many consider a disappointing 6-2 start to the season. However, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home with an average victory margin of 31.3 points per game. We also must keep in mind that the Blue Devils 2 losses came versus #5 Purdue (6-0) and #9 Kansas (6-1). Duke will be facing a #25 Ohio State team (5-1) coming off impressive wins over Texas Tech and Cincinnati in their last 2 games. Nevertheless, this will be the Buckeyes first true road game of the season and it comes at one of the toughest environments to play at in the country. Give me Duke minus the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -3 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State @ Saint Bonaventure 7:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Saint Bonaventure -3.0 (5*) MTSU is 0-2 SU&ATS in true road games this season which came against Winthrop and Missouri State while losing by an average of 16.0 points per contest. The Bonnies enter tonight’s game having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 and won by an average of 13.0 points per game. They’re also 3-0 SU&ATS at home thus far with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. St. Bonaventure has shot a blistering hot 40.2% from beyond the 3-point line throughout their previous 5 games. The Bonnies are a substantial +5.1 over MTSU on my strength of schedule meter. Give me Saint Bonaventure minus the points. |
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11-29-22 | Virginia v. Michigan +4 | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Michigan 9:30 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Michigan +3.5 (3*) #3 Virginia (5-0) is as good as advertised. They’ve already defeated #6 Baylor and #16 Illinois. If this were a 7-game playoff series, I would take Virginia in a heartbeat. However, it’s not, and in a 1-game early season situation I deem the home underdog Wolverines to possess ample betting value. By the way, since the start of last season, Michigan has gone 9-1 SU at home when playing their 2nd game over a 7-day period. Give me Michigan plus the points. |
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11-29-22 | Baylor v. Marquette +6.5 | 70-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Marquette 8:30 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Marquette +6.5 (3*) This will be Baylor’s first true road game of the season. They certainly will be exposed to a hostile environment tonight. Marquette is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season with an average winning margin of 21.2 points per game. Marquette’s only 2 losses this season came at #5 Purdue (5-0) by 5 and versus Mississippi State (7-0) on a neutral floor. Give me Marquette plus the points. |
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11-29-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Duquesne -3.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
UCSB @ Duquesne 7:00 PM ET Game# 605-606 Play On: Duquesne -3.5 (3*) Duquesne enters this contest with a 5-1 record with their lone defeat coming at #16 Kentucky. Since that defeat Duquesne have won 4 straight and by an average victory margin of 12.3 points per game. UCSB is 4-1 but they’ve done so against a much weaker schedule than Duquesne has faced thus far. As a matter of fact, their lone loss came against Northern Arizona in a game they closed as a 9.0-point home favorite. Give me Duquesne minus the points. |
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11-28-22 | Sam Houston State +4.5 v. Nevada | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Sam Houston State @ Nevada 10:00 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: Sam Houston State +4.0 (5*) Sam Houston State has already posted away win over Oklahoma and Utah. So, they won’t have a deer in the headlights look tonight in Reno. Sam Houston has a perfect 6-0 record thus far and allowed 55 points or fewer in each game. Since last season began, Sam Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS immediately after allowing 65 points or less in each of their previous 7 contests, and they won by an average of 15.9 points per game. During their 4 games this season versus Division 1 teams, Sam Houston forced an enormous 19 turnovers per contest and had a +7.0 rebound per game differential. Give me Sam Houston State plus the points. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis 8:15 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Indianapolis -2.0 (5*) Pittsburgh is coming off a 37-30 division home loss to Cincinnati in their previous game. That defeat dropped the Steelers season record to 3-7 (.300). Any NFL team (Colts) that’s +2.5 to -2.5, versus an opponent (Steelers) with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 7 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Indianapolis going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory came by 7.8 points per game. Give me Indianapolis minus the small number. |
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11-27-22 | Rams v. Chiefs -15 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Chiefs 15.0 (5*) The Rams are reeling right now. They’ll be without their starting quarterback Mathew Stafford and all-pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp who will be sidelined by injuries. Los Angeles limps into this contest on a 4-game losing streak in which they were 0-3-1 ATS as well. The Chiefs offense is peaking right now. They have accounted for 319 yards or more passing in each of their previous 5 games. Kansas City’s offense has also amassed 486 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 3 games. NFL home favorites of 10.5 or more with a winning record, versus teams with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that enter a contest on a on 2 or more game losing streak, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 20-0 ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by an enormous 24.0 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers -9 | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Saints @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: 49ers -9.0 (5*) New Orleans is coming off a 27-20 home win over banged up and struggling Rams team. However, the Saints have failed to win 2 games in a row all season and are 0-3 SU&ATS following a victory. New Orleans is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games. San Francisco is coming off a 38-10 blowout win over Arizona and has the look of a team that’s primed for an extremely strong finish to their regular season slate. The 49ers defense has been tremendous in 9 of their 10 games played with the only exception coming against Kansas City who is arguably the NFL’s best offensive team. As a matter of fact, the 49ers are #1 in total defense while allowing a mere 283.9 yards per game, #3 in scoring defense at 17.3 points per contest, and has amassed the 4th most sacks at 32. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*) Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-26-22 | Louisville +3 v. Kentucky | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992. Give me Louisville plus the small number. |