Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | 40-13 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*) Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense. Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game. Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS. Give me LSU plus the points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*) Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins. It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced. Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*) Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays. SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week. Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*) I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat. Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game. NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers +1 | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*) Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game. Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers. |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*) Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Give me the Colts minus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty v. Old Dominion +3.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*) Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game. Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma v. TCU +6.5 | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*) TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*) Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State +4 | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*) The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch. After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak. Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*) Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it. By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month. |
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09-28-22 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Phillies (Nola) @ Cubs (Wesneski) 7:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Cubs +1.5 (-110) (5*) These teams have recently been going in opposite directions. The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 while the Cubs have won 6 of its previous 7. The Cubs are coming off last night’s 2-1 win over Philadelphia. Despite Chicago’s poor 68-86 season record, they’ve managed to go an extremely profitable 17-7 this season immediately following a 1-run win. The Cubs are slated to start righthander Hayden Wesnecki. The 24-year-old has been exceptional since his September call up from AAA Iowa. His first 2 career MLB appearances came as a reliever. However, his last 2 were as a starter and he compiled a brilliant 2.03 ERA/0.75 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings pitched. The Cubs bullpen has been sharp during their 6-1 stretch while posting a staff 2.38 ERA/1.15 WHIP. Give me the Cubs on the run line. |
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09-27-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rockies (Marquez) @ Giants (Webb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Giants -1.5 (+120) (5*) Since 2021, German Marquez has made 4 starts at San Francisco and posted a terrible 7.78 ERA/1.68 WHIP during those outings. Marquez has also shown poor form over his last 3 starts with a 7.87 ERA/1.75 WHIP. The Colorado bullpen has a shaky 6.83 ERA/1.58 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games while the Rockies have gone 1-6 during that stretch. Since the beginning of last season, Colorado has gone 28-72 on the road when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Giants enter today having won 6 of its last 7. The Giants are currently a money line favorite of -185. Since the 2021 season began, San Francisco is 15-1 as a money line home favorite of -150 or more when Brandon Webb is their starting pitcher and won by an average of 3.6 runs per game. Webb has made 3 starts versus Colorado this year with a sparkling 2.50 EWRA and 0.80 WHIP. Webb has also displayed good form over his last 3 starts with a 3.31 ERA/0.98 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has compiled an excellent 1.54 ERA as a staff throughout their previous 7 games. Give me the Giants on the run line. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*) Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week. NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Jets +6.0 (5*) The Bengals find themselves in a rare situation as an away favorite and coming off a pair of 3-point losses. Any NFL away favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming of 2 consecutive losses by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those away favorites going 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980 and were defeated by an average of 10.3 points per game. The Jets are coming off a remarkable and unlikely comeback win last Sunday in Cleveland. They overcame a 30-17 deficit to win 31-30 after scoring 2 touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play. They closed as a 6.5-point underdog in that contest. Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0 to 8.5 that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, and they’re playing in Game 2 through Game 6 of their season, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.5%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went a more than respectable 11-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus the points. |
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09-25-22 | Lions +6 v. Vikings | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Lions @ Vikings 1:00 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Lions +6.0 (5*) The Lions are coming off an impressive 36-27 home win over Washington. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a 24-7 Monday night loss at Philadelphia. The Lions have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Vikings. They went just 1-2 SU in those contests but both losses each came by narrow 2-point margins. Any division away underdog that’s coming off a win in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 11 or more and they scored 14 or less, resulted in those division away underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1986. Those underdogs also went a stellar 10-4 SU as well. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*) The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense. Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*) Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Duke +7.5 v. Kansas | 27-35 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*) Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022. Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 8:15 PM Game# 301-302 Play On: Cleveland -4.5 (5*) Both teams enter today with a 1-1 record, and each is coming off a loss. The Browns managed to squander a 30-17 lead with less than 2 minutes to play in a 31-30 loss to the New York Jets as a closing 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to New England. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road following a SU loss and lost by an average of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL Thursday division home favorite that’s coming off a home favorite loss in which they scored 7 points or more versus an opponent with at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS since 1980. Those home favorites were also a perfect 12-0 SU in those contests and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game. Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*) Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game. Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
Washington @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*) Detroit of is coming off a season opening 38-35 home loss to Philadelphia. The Lions lost despite rushing for 181 yards and that’s difficult to do in the NFL. However, they also allowed Philadelphia to rush for 216 yards of their own. Detroit is now a dismal 6-22 SU in their last 28 at home. The Lions are also 1-7 SU at home since 2020 when the line is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by an average of 10.6 points per game. Washington has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular road games when the line was +3.5 to -3.5 under current head coach Ron Rivera and they won by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Commanders will look to carry the momentum over from last week’s come from behind 28-22 home win over Jacksonville. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +13 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*) Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day. Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move. Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role. Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: LA Chargers +4.0 (5*) Since taking over as head coach in Kansas City, Any Reid has gone and outstanding 60-23 at home. However, 4 of those 23 home losses have come to the Chargers. He’s 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS versus the Chargers at home. The current total in this game is 54.5. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games when the total was 49.5 or greater. That includes 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU if they were facing a divisional opponent. Both teams are coming off impressive opening game win over opponents that were playoff teams a season ago. Under current head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers went 3-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog last season which included a 30-24 win at Kansas City as a 7.0-point underdog. Give me the Chargers plus the points. The Chiefs are coming off 44-21 win at Arizona in which they covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They’re now 24-8 in their last 32 games. Since 2003, any NFL away underdog (Chargers) of 6.0 or less, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off an away favorite ATS win it covered by 3.0 or more, and they’ve won 18 or more of their last 32 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-3 ATS (88%). The away underdog also won 19 of those 25 games straight up. Give me the Chargers plus the points. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 21 m | Show | |
Denver @ Seattle 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Seattle +6.5 (5*) Seattle isn’t a very good team at this juncture. Conversely, I believe the Russell Wilson factor in Denver certainly makes Denver better, but not to the point where they’re a better than touchdown road favorite in a season opening nationally televised Monday night game. Besides, under current head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-1 ATS and 10-4 SU in their last 14 as a home underdog of +3.0 or greater. Seattle went 7-10 last season and is also 19-13 during it previous 32 at home. Any Monday night non-division home underdog (Seattle) that won 7 or more games during regular season action the year before and has also won 17 or more of its previous 32 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1987. Those underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me Seattle plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +3 | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:20 PM ET Game# 481-488 Play On: Dallas +3.0 (-120) (5*) Dallas is coming off last year’s successful 12-5 regular season campaign. Since 1985, NFL Game 1 home teams that won 12 or more regular season games the year before are a superb 55-19 (74.3%) SU. Those SU results take on added betting value since the home team in this instance is an underdog. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s opening game 31-29 loss at Tampa Bay. Tom Brady took a brief sabbatical during training camp to attend to family matters. I am skeptical about how mentally prepared he is going into this season even as great as his illustrious career has been. Since 2018, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog and averaged outscoring those opponents by a decisive margin of 13.5 points per game. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Giants +5.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*) Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best. The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span. Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) I am not crazy about the Green Bay Packers wide receiver group and especially when compared to what they had at that position in recent years. The loss of Devante Adams who signed with Las Vegas was a huge blow. Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 8-9 season which ended the 8-year head coaching tenure of Mike Zimmer. However, they still have top shelf offensive skilled players that can create opposing defenses nightmares. Any NFL home team (Minnesota) that’s facing a division opponent in their season opener, and they won 8 or more regular season games the year before, resulted in those home teams going 83-30 SU (73.4%) since 1985. The SU results take on added significance since the Vikings are currently a small underdog. Furthermore, if those home teams were an underdog of +6.0 or less, and they were facing an opponent which won 11 or more regular season games the year before, those home teams went 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 1985. Give me the Vikings plus the small number. |
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09-11-22 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +7 | 44-21 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Arizona +7.0 (-120) (5*) Since Kliff Kingsbury head coaching tenure began in 2019, the Cardinals have been quite successful in getting off to good starts. Specifically speaking, during that time span Arizona has gone 10-2 ATS and 8-3-1 SU as an underdog during its first 8 games of the season. Furthermore, since 2020, Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in Games 1 through 8 and won by an extremely impressive 19.4 points per contest. The Cardinals franchise has enjoyed much success as a non-conference home underdog by going 21-7 ATS (75%) and 19-8-1 SU. If they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests, the numbers improve to 18-4 (81.8%) ATS and 16-5-1 SU. Give me the Cardinals plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7.5 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Pittsburgh +7.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2016 season, when play in games 1 through 9, Pittsburgh has gone an extremely profitable 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 9-3 SU as an away underdog of 9.5 or less. The Steelers will have revenge on their mind after being swept in both regular season meetings against Cincinnati last season. The Steelers finished an uninspiring 8-8-1 last season but somehow it was good enough for the last Wild Card berth in the AFC. Any Game 1 division away underdog of 7.0 or less that lost both regular season meetings to their current opponent in the previous year, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-6 ATS (75%) since 1998. Furthermore, if those division away teams were an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5, then that exact NFL betting angle improves to 16-2 ATS (88.9%). Give me Pittsburgh plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*) Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game. Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*) This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game. Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama v. Texas +21 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*) You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side. Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number. |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 40 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*) Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games. Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Duke v. Northwestern -9.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*) Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5. Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season. Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*) Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up. Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +4 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*) It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels. This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*) After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos. Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: UTSA +4.0 This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0. UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7 | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home. Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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08-27-22 | Washington Commanders v. Ravens -6 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 23 m | Show |
Commanders @ Ravens 7:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Ravens -6.0 Washington has gone a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a preseason underdog and lost by an average margin of 16.0 points per game. That includes 0-3 ATS (-17.7 PPG) under current head coach Ron Rivera. Since 2016, Baltimore has gone an incredible 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS in their preseason games under present head coach John Harbaugh. As a matter of fact, since Harbaugh was appointed as the Ravens head coach in 2008, Baltimore has gone 42-12 SU (.778) and 39-14-1 ATS (74%) in their preseason games. Since 2017, Baltimore is 4-0 SU&ATS in preseason action when facing Washington and won by an average of 19.3 points per game. Finally, Baltimore has unequivocally more quality depth on its roster which is always a key component when handicapping preseason action since starters see limited to very little playing time. |
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08-27-22 | Eagles +2 v. Dolphins | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Dolphins 7:00 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Eagles +2.0 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off last week’s 21-20 win over Cleveland. Miami is coming off a 15-13 home loss to Las Vegas. This sets up a never lost NFL preseason ATS betting angle which is posted below. Any NFL preseason underdog of 3.5 or less that’s coming off a SU win, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) that’s coming off a SU loss. Resulted in those underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2018. The underdogs also won 16 of the 17 games straight up. Give me the Eagles plus the points. |
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08-26-22 | Patriots +1 v. Raiders | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Raiders 8:15 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Patriots +1.0 (5*) New England is coming off last week’s 20-10 home win over Washington. Since the start of the 2018 NFL preseason, any pick or underdog of 4.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those teams going 33-4 ATS (89.2%). Those teams also went 30-7 (81.1%) straight up. Give me the Patriots. |
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08-20-22 | Steelers +2 v. Jaguars | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Jaguars 7:00 PM ET Game# 417-418 Play On: Steelers +2.0 (5*) Since the 2017 NFL preseason, the Steelers are a very profitable 5-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 5.0 or less. Conversely, since the 2019 preseason, Jacksonville is 0-5 SU&ATS at home or on a neutral field, and they lost by an average of 14.0 points per game. Pittsburgh is coming off a 32-25 home win over Seattle in their preseason opener and they covered as a 2.0-point favorite. Jacksonville has lost each of its first 2 preseason contests which included a 24-13 home loss to Cleveland in their previous outing. This sets up an unbeaten NFL preseason betting angle which is detailed below. Any preseason away underdog of 1.5 to 5.5 that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent coming off losses in each of their last games with the last defeat coming by 11 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 2002. Those away underdogs also went 12-1 SU in those contests. Give me the Steelers plus the points. |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -4 | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 52 h 56 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 1:00 PM ET Game# 411-412 Play On: Bills -4.0 (-115) (5*) Buffalo is coming off last Saturday’s 27-24 home win over Indianapolis in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. They overcame a 24-10 deficit in the 4th quarter deficit in that win which speaks to the quality of depth they possessor. That makes the Bills 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 preseason games and all under current head coach Sean McDermott. Any NFL preseason home team (Bills) that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they scored 23 points or more, and it’s game 2 or game 3 of their preseason schedule, resulted in those home teams going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average victory margin came by a decisive 12.8 points per game. Give me the Bills minus the points. |
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08-17-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Braves | 9-7 | Win | 122 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Braves (Odorizzi) @ Mets (Scherzer) 7:20 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Mets -1.5 (+122) (5*) The Mets have lost 2 consecutive games for just a 10th time this season. New York is 7-2 this season immediately following losses in each of their previous 2 games. Even more impressive is the fact they are a perfect 4-0 on the road in 2022 following 2 straight losses with an average victory margin of 3.8 runs per game, and all 4 wins came by 2 runs or more. Max Scherzer is 2-0 versus Atlanta this season while allowing just 1 earned run in 14.0 inning pitched. He also amassed 20 strikeouts in those 2 starts. Scherzer has an outstanding 0.93 WHIP in 16 starts this season and that’s significant as it applies to today’s game. He will be facing an Atlanta team that’s gone 5-11 at home this year when facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Putting that record into perspective, the Braves are 34-11 at home when not in that exact situation. Give me the Mets on the run line. |
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08-14-22 | Vikings v. Raiders -3.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Raiders 4:25 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Raiders -3.5 (5*) The Raiders opened the preseason with a 27-11 win over Jacksonville in the Hall of Fame Game which was played in Canton, Ohio. The Vikings will be playing their preseason opener and with a new coaching staff. Any NFL preseason home team with a line of +3.5 to -3.5 who is coming off a Hall of Fame Game win by 4 points or more in which they scored 27 points or greater, versus an opponent that’s playing their preseason opener, resulted in those home teams going 11-0 SU and 10-0-1 ATS since 1989. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came 11.6 points per game. Give me the Raiders minus the points. |
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08-13-22 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Steelers Game# 125-126 Play On: Steelers -3.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2017 NFL preseason slate, Pittsburgh has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home when the point-spread was +4.0 to -4.0 under current head coach Mike Tomlin, and they outscored those opponents by an average of 8.2 points per contest. During that identical span, the Steelers were 6-1 SU at home. What pushed over the edge on this pick was I like Pittsburgh’s quarterback rotation of Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, and Mason Rudolph far more than Seattle’s Geno Smith, Drew Locke, and Jacob Eason. Give me the Steelers minus the points. |
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08-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rockies (Senzatela) @ Diamondbacks (Kelly) 8:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Arizona -1.5 (+130) Arizona is coming off yesterday’s come from behind 6-5 win over Colorado. That now makes them 6-1 in their last 7 at home. Conversely, since the start of last season, Colorado is an abysmal 43-88 on the road and that includes 23-62 (.271) when facing righthanded starting pitchers. Antonio Senzatela has an uninspiring 5.83 ERA/1.94 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Colorado is 0-6 on the road this season when Senzatela is their starting pitcher and his 6.16 ERA/1.70 WHIP during those outings was a key contributing factor to that futility. The Colorado bullpen has recorded an awful 7.78 ERA/2.00 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Merrill Kelly has been terrific over his last 3 starts while registering a 0.43 ERA and he averaged 7.0 innings pitched per outing. Kelly is 2-0 versus Colorado this season with a 1.15 ERA/0.96 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings pitched. Kelly is also the author of 6 consecutive quality starts. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a brilliant 2.10 ERA/0.97 WHIP in their last 7 games. Give me the Diamondbacks on the run line. |
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08-05-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Nationals (Gray) @ Phillies 7:05 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Nationals +1.5 (-115) (5*) Kyle Gibson has struggled mightily in his last 3 home starts while recording a large 8.79 ERA and allowed 6 home runs during only 14.3 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has a terrible 1.71 ERA/1.57 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. Josiah Gray is 7-2 in his road team starts this season with a very good 2.45 ERA/0.99 WHIP. Without Gray as their starting pitcher, Washington is an abysmal 12-29 on the road. Furthermore, Gray has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 this season a a money line road underdog of +150 or greater. Since the start of last season, Gray is a perfect 6-0 in his road team starts versus National League teams that average 4.5 or more runs scored per game. Heading into today, Philadelphia is averaging 4.6 runs scored per game. |
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07-31-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Pirates | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Phillies (Nola) @ Pirates (Brubaker) 1:35 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (+100) (5*) The Pirates J.T. Brubaker has a lofty 4.84 ERA/1.57 this season in 5 daytime starts. Through games played on Friday 7/29, Pittsburgh had lost 5 in a row. Additionally, Pittsburgh scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of its last 7 games. Aaron Nolan has been outstanding over his last 5 road starts with a 1.41 ERA/0.78 WHIP in those outings. Nola has also shown great form over his last 9 starts overall with a 2.73 ERA, a 65:7 strikeout to walk ration, and he averaged 7.3 innings pitched per outing. Philadelphia began the weekend on a modest 3-game win streak. Give me the Phillies on the run line. |
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07-29-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Braves (Wright) 7:20 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Arizona +1.5 (-110) (5*) Since 2013, Madison Bumgarner is a perfect 5-0 in his team starts at Atlanta with a microscopic 0.26 ERA. The veteran lefthander has made 2 starts versus Atlanta this season and registered a stellar 2.50 ERA/0.89 WHIP while averaging 6.0 innings pitched per outing. The Arizona bullpen has a shiny 2.14 ERA/0.95 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Arizona enters this series having won 6 of their last 7 and averaged a healthy 6.0 runs scored per game and a terrific team on-base-percentage of .351. The Diamondbacks will be facing an Atlanta team which has dropped 3 of their last 4 and were outscored in those games by a cumulative score of 25-13. Give me Arizona on the run line. |
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07-29-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Red Sox (Bello) 7:10 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (+100) (5*) Brayan Bello has made 3 starts this season and all have come since 7/6. During those 3 outings Bello posted an alarmingly high 10.50 ERA/2.50 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has an awful 8.10 ERA/1.80 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Despite yesterday’s 4-3 win over Cleveland, Boston is still a dismal 5-15 in their last 20 games and includes 1-7 during its previous 8. On the other hand, Milwaukee enters today having won 5 of its previous 6 games and they scored 6 runs or more in all 5 wins. The Brewers last played on Wednesday when they recorded a 10-4 win over Minnesota. Since the start of last season, Milwaukee has gone an extremely profitable 25-9 on the road immediately following a win by 4 runs or more. Brandon Woodruff has displayed good form over his last 5 starts while collecting a 2.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP during that stretch. Give me the Brewers on the run line. |
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07-25-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Braves (Fried) @ Phillies (Suarez) 7:05 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-109) (10*) Rangers Suarez has made 2 starts versus Atlanta this season and was highly ineffective in both. During those 2 outings, Suarez posted a 7.36 ERA/1.64 WHIP in 11.0 innings pitched. The Phillies bullpen has posted a lofty 5.56 ERA over their last 7 games. Philadelphia enters today having lost their last 3 and 7 of its previous 10 games. Atlanta is coming off yesterday’s 9-1 home loss to the Angels. However, the Braves have gone 10-0 in their last 10 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 4.3 runs per game. As a matter of fact, Atlanta hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 6/18. Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-14 as a money line road favorite of -125 or greater. Max Fried is 6-1 in his road team starts this season with a terrific 2.51 ERA/0.79 WHIP and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per outing. The current total on this game is 8.0. Fried is a superb 21-3 in his team starts since last season whenever there was a total of 8.0 or 8.5. Give me the Braves on the run line for a Top Play. |
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07-24-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Orioles (Kremer) @ Yankees (Cortes) 1:35 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (-110) (5*) This will be the first start of the season for Dean Kremer against the Yankees. However, Kremer was 0-3 in his team starts a season ago versus the Bronx Bombers with a large 8.03 ERA/1.95 WHIP. He also surrendered 5 home runs in only 12 1/3 innings pitched during those 3 outings. Since the start of last season, Baltimore has gone 13-59 versus American League teams that average 4.9 or more scored per game, and they were outscored by an average of 3.3 runs per outing. Nestor Cortes has been outstanding in his day game starts with a 6-1 team record and 1.86 ERA/0.80 WHIP. Cortes has made 3 career starts versus Baltimore and had a dominating 1.06 ERA/0.88 WHIP while striking out 30 batters in 17.0 innings pitched. Heading into Saturday’s slate, the Yankees were averaging 7.3 runs scored per game while smacking 16 home runs throughout their previous 7 games played. Give me the Yankees on the run line. |
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07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Angels (Sandoval) @ Braves (Wright) 7:20 PM ET Game# 981-982 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-105) (5*) Patrick Sandoval has a deceiving 3.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. I say deceiving because during that identical stretch, the Angels lefthander collected a poor 1.76 WHIP which surely points to him escaping disaster on more than a few occasions. The Angels are 1-9 during its last 10 away games. Los Angeles is also 0-4 in their last 4 and 2-13 during its previous 15 games overall. Los Angeles is also an abysmal 5-29 this season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by a sizable average of 2.7 runs per game. Kyle Wright is 4-0 in his last 4 teams starts with a sparkling 2.16 ERA/1.12 WHIP and averaged 6.3 innings pitched per outing. Additionally, Wright is 11-0 in his team starts this season whenever there was a posted total of 8.5-10.0 and Atlanta won by 2.3 runs per game. The current total on this game is 8.5. The Braves are a very profitable 23-9 this season when facing left-handed starting pitchers and hit a noteworthy 54 home runs in those games. |
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07-23-22 | Padres v. Mets -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Padres (Snell) @ Mets (Bassitt) 7:10 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Mets -1.5 (+145) (5*) The Mets are coming off last night’s 4-1 home loss to the Padres. It marked their 2nd straight loss. Nevertheless, New York has gone a red-hot 14-1 this season immediately following a home loss. The Mets are also an extremely profitable 6-1 this season after losing each of its previous 2 games. Chris Bassitt has been outstanding in 9 starts at Citi Field this season while recording a 3.12 ERA/1.04 WHIP and averaged 6.4 innings pitched per outing. Bassitt is 31-11 in his career team starts as a money line favorite of -110 or greater, and those 42 opponents averaged just 2.9 runs scored per game. The Mets bullpen has a shiny 2.70 ERA/1.11 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Blake Snell is 0-5 in his away team starts in 2022 with a lofty 5.85 ERA/1.65 WHIP. During his lone start versus the Mets this season, Snell allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits and walked 3 in just 4.0 innings pitched. The Padres bullpen has been shaky of late while registering a staff 4.50 ERA/1.55 WHIP. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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07-22-22 | Guardians v. White Sox -1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Guardians (Quantrill) @ White Sox (Giolito) 8:10 PM ET Game# 919-920 Play On: White Sox -1.5 (+140) (5*) Cal Quantrill has gone an abysmal 7-25 in his career team starts as a money line underdog of +100 or greater. The Guardians has gone a terrible 1-7 during its previous 8 road games. Quantrill has a sub-standard 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his 2 starts this year versus the White Sox. You can make a strong case that the White Sox have been the most underachieving team in baseball thus far. Nonetheless, they won 5 of their last 6 prior to the all-star break and will carry that momentum into tonight. The same could be said for Lucas Giolito’s first half of the season. However, since the start of last season, Giolito has recorded a dominating 0.57 ERA during his 5 starts against Cleveland. Giolito will be supported by a White Sox bullpen which has registered a brilliant 0.45 ERA during their previous 7 games. Give me the White Sox on the run line. |
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07-15-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Mariners (Ray) @ Texas (Bush) 8:05 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Mariners -1.5 (+110) (10*) Texas will be reeling after blowing a 5-1 leading heading into the 7th inning during last night’s 6-5 loss to Seattle. Conversely, the Mariners have now won 11 straight and 19 of its last 22 games. That successful stretch also has seen Seattle go 10-1 on the road. Since 2020, Seattle has dominated Texas while going 26-10 versus the Rangers. Michael Bush has made 3 starts this season and went just 1.0 inning on each occasion. So. Texas will attempt to piece this game together with a bullpen that has a sizable staff 6.68 ERA throughout the previous 7 days. Robbie Ray has been brilliant over his last 6 starts with a 0.91 ERA/0.73 WHIP and averaged 6.6 innings pitched per start. Rays has made 1 start this season and 1 last while posting a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has an excellent 1.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP during its previous 7 games. The Mariners are brimming with confidence after winning their last 11 and 19 of its previous 22 games. Give me the Mariners on the run line for a Top Play wager. |
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07-14-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 5-4 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Braves (Wright) @ Nationals (Sanchez) 7:05 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-135) (5*) Washington is 1-12 in their last 13 and that includes a current 6-game losing streak. They were swept in a day/night doubleheader by Seattle yesterday and will be facing an Atlanta team who played an afternoon game on Wednesday. Since 2020, the Nationals have gone an abysmal 2-14 at home versus Atlanta which includes 0-3 this year while being outscored by a whopping 5.3 runs per game. Speaking of futility, the Nationals are 14-33 (.298) at home this season. Additionally, Washington is a brutal 7-33 (-3.0 RPG) in 2022 versus fellow NL East teams. Atlanta is coming off yesterday’s 7-3 home loss to the Mets. However. Atlanta has gone 8-0 in their last 8 following a loss in their previous game and the last 6 of those victories came by 2 runs or more. Kyle Wright is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a sparkling 2.00 ERA. The Brave’s bullpen has been lights out over their last 7 games with a staff 1.61 ERA/0.93 WHIP. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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07-13-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | 6-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Padres (Musgrove) @ Rockies (Kuhl) 8:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Padres -1.5 (-110) (5*) Chad Kuhl has been terrible in his last 2 starts while allowing 9 earned runs on 13 hits and walked for in 10.0 innings. During his lone start versus San Diego this season, Kuhl allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits and walked 5 in just 4 1/3 innings pitched. The Colorado bullpen has a hefty 1.84 WHIP over their last 7 games. Joe Musgrove is 7-1 in his road team starts this season with a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and averaged a healthy 6.7 innings pitched per outing. Musgrove has made 6 career starts versus Colorado (all since 2018) and recorded an impressive 1.21 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while doing so. Give me the Padres on the run-line. |
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07-13-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 130 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Winckowski) @ Rays (McClanahan) 7:10 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Rays -1.5 (+130) (5*) I gave this out as a free play yesterday afternoon. I rarely use a free pick as a premium pay selection but this is an exception to the rule. The Red Sox Josh Winckowski has a lofty 4.96 ERA/1.52 WHIP during 6 starts in 2022. The Red Sox are 2-6 versus Tampa Bay this season and that includes dropping the last 4. Furthermore, Boston is a stellar 36-19 (.655) in non-division game this year, but a money-draining 11-22 (.333) when facing fellow AL East teams. Sean McClanahan has a superb 1.73 ERA/0.82 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He’s been even better than that over his previous 4 starts with a 1.38 ERA/0.69 WHIP. Furthermore, McClanahan has recorded 141 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings pitched and has strung together 11 consecutive quality starts. Give me the Rays on the run line. |
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07-12-22 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Mets (Peterson) @ Braves (Strider) 7:20 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Braves -1.5 (+112) (5*) Lefthander David Peterson has made 3 starts versus Atlanta since 2021 with a sizable 7.81 ERA/1.74 WHIP. He’ll be facing a Braves team that has gone an outstanding 21-9 versus lefthanded starting pitchers this season while recording a +1.9 run per game differential. Spence Strider has been a hidden gem for Atlanta. The Atlanta hurler has been in terrific form over his last 3 starts while posting a 0.50 ERA/0.61 WHIP. During that stretch, Strider has also registered 30 strikeouts against only 3 walks in 18.0 innings of work. The Atlanta bullpen has been dominant throughout it’s previous 7 games with a staff 1.30 ERA. Atlanta lost the opening game of this crucial NL East series last night. However, the Braves are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 immediately following a loss and 6 of those 7 wins came by 2 or more runs. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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07-09-22 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Nationals (Corbin) @ Braves (Wright) 4:10 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-120) (5*) Since last season, lefthander Pat Corbin has gone 0-4 in his team starts versus Atlanta with a massive 10.12 ERA. Corbin is 1-6 in his road team starts this season with a sizable 7.39 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. The Nationals have gone 7-31 this season in division games and were outscored by an average of 3.1 runs per outing. Washington has averaged a paltry 2.4 runs scored per game in their last 7. The Nationals bullpen has a poor 6.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Kyle Wright is 7-3 in his home team starts this season with a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Braves bullpen has a stellar 2.35 ERA over their previous 7 games. Atlanta is 20-9 this season versus lefthanded starting pitchers and outscored those opponents by 1.9 runs per game. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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07-09-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Pirates (Thompson) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 4:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (-120) (5*) The Pirates Zach Thompson is 0-2 in his team starts versus Milwaukee this season with a 8.30 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The Pirates bullpen has a terrible 7.48 ERA and 1.99 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Pittsburgh has gone a miserable 14-27 on the road this season and has been outscored by 2.0 runs per game. The Pirates will be facing Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff today. The Brewers hurler has struck out 71 batters in 11 starts (6.5 PG) in 2022. Since the start of last season, Pittsburgh is an abysmal 4-29 on the road when facing a pitcher who averages 5 or more strikeouts per start and were outscored by an average of 2.8 runs per game. Brandon Woodruff is 3-0 in his team starts versus Pittsburgh this season while posing a shiny 2.25 ERA. Furthermore, Woodruff is 4-0 in his home team starts this season with a terrific 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Give me the Brewers on the run line. |
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07-07-22 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Liberatore) @ Braves (Strider) 7:20 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-120) (5*) Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone 9-1 versus St. Louis and that includes 3-0 in 2022. Furthermore, during those 3 wins over St. Louis the Braves outscored them by a cumulative score of 16-4. The Cardinals will go with lefthander Mathew Liberatore. The Cardinals southpaw has been horrible in 3 road starts this season while registering a 10.97 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. That doesn’t bode well when facing a Braves team which has gone 20-8 versus lefthanded starters this season while averaging 5.9 runs scored per game and they smacked 47 home runs. The Cardinals have dropped their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7. Spencer Strider has an outstanding 0.99 WHIP in 7 starts this season. During those outings, Strider averaged only 1.71 walks per start and that’s a noteworthy item. The Cardinals are a dismal 10-20 this season when facing pitchers that average 1.75 or fewer walks per start. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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07-07-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | 0-10 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Marlins (Castano) @ Mets (Williams) 7:10 ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Marlins +1.5 (-130) (5*) Trevor Williams has struggled over his last 2 starts while collecting a large 9.38 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and allowed an alarmingly high 5 home runs in only 7 2/3 innings pitched. The Mets are a terrific 35-17 this season when facing right-handed starting pitchers. However, they will be facing lefty Daniel Castano today and they’ve gone a mediocre 16-14 versus lefthanded starting pitchers this season. Speaking of Castano, he’s made 1 starts versus the Mets this season and allowed just 2 earned runs on 5 hits over 7.0 innings of work. Castano has a shiny 2.86 ERA in 4 starts this season and that includes 0.77 during his 2 on the road. The Miami bullpen has a more than respectable 3.20 ERA and has converted on 5 of 6 save opportunities throughout its previous 7 games. The Marlins had their 6-game win streak halted yesterday at the hands of Shoei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels. The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. However, Miami is 27-11 this season against the run line immediately after scoring 3 runs or fewer in each of its previous 3 games. Give me the Marlins on the run line. |
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07-06-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Cubs (Sampson) @ Brewers (Burnes) 2:10 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (5*) The Brewers are coming off an 8-3 home loss to the Cubs on Tuesday. Milwaukee is 4-0 in their last 4 and 7-1 during its previous 8 games following a loss. Conversely, the Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 following a road win. Since 2021, Corbin Burnes has made 5 starts versus the Cubs while posting a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Burnes averaged 6.4 innings pitched in those 5 outings and had an excellent 50:7 strikeout to walk ratio. Burnes has displayed dominant form over his last 3 starts overall with a 1.74 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and averaged 6.9 innings pitched per start. Despite scoring only 3 runs last night, Milwaukee has averaged 6.4 runs scored and 2 home runs hit per game throughout its previous 7 games. The Cubs Adrian Sampson has made 2 starts this season while recording an uninspiring 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while doing so. Give me the Brewers on the run line. |
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07-03-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Braves (Morton) @ Reds (Castillo) 1:40 PM ET Game# .905-906 Play On: Braves -1.5 (+100) (5*) The Reds have dropped 4 straight and were outscored by a combined 36-12. Cincinnati has allowed an atrocious 6.9 runs per game throughout its previous 15 played. The Reds bullpen has a horrible 10.08 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in their lasty 7 games. Luis Castillo has a lofty 5.14 ERA in 4 home starts this season. Atlanta has gone a terrific 23-6 in their last 29 games. Charlie Morton has displayed very good form over his last 3 starts with a 1.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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07-03-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Guardians | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Yankees (Montgomery) @ Guardians (McKenzie) 1:40 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (+108) (5*) Triston McKenzie has been awful during his last 2 starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings pitched. McKenzie has also surrendered an alarmingly high 16 home runs in 77 1/3 innings pitched this season. That’s especially concerning given the fact that he’ll be facing the best home run hitting team in baseball. The Yankees have hit 133 home runs in 79 games (1.68 PG) this season and that includes smacking 6 taters in a doubleheader sweep yesterday. The Guardians bullpen has a poor 7.54 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and gave up 8 home runs during 22 2/3 innings pitched in their last 7 games. Jordan Montgomery has gone 7-0 in his last 7 team starts with a solid 3.20 ERA and superb 0.93 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen has a brilliant 0.79 ERA over their previous 7 games. Give me the Yankees on the run line. |
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07-01-22 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
A's (Kaprielian) @ Mariners (Gonzalez) 10:10 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Mariners -1.5 (+117) (5*) The A’s will be facing Seattle’s starting pitcher Marco Gonzalez who has a 3.31 ERA in 15 starts this season. That’s significant when considering that Oakland has gone an abysmal 0-20 (-3.2 RPG) record in 2022 when facing American League starting pitched with an ERA of 3.70 or better. James Kaprielian has been in bad form over his last 3 starts with a 6.28 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He’s made 2 career starts at Seattle with a large 9.34 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and both occurred since 2021. Marco Gonzalez has averaged 6.6 innings pitcher per start during his last 3 with a very good 2.29 ERA. The Seattle bullpen has been dominant over their last 7 games with a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Give me the Mariners on the run line. |
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07-01-22 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 125 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Angels (Lorenzen) @ Astros (Javier) 8:10 PM ET Game# 919-920 Play On: Astros -1.5 (+125) (5*) The Angels are 5-18 this season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by an average of 1.9 runs per game. Michael Lorenzen has been in bad form over his last 4 starts with a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. During his lone start versus Houston in 2022, Lorenzen allowed 4 earned runs in only 3 1/3 innings pitched. Christian Javier has been impressive over his last 3 starts while registering a 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and averaging 6.0 innings pitcher per outing. Javier also has a very good 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his 5 home starts this year. The Astros bullpen has been lights out at home with a staff 1.54 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Houston is 11-3 in their last 14 and 8 of those wins came by 2 runs or more. Give me the Astros on the run line. |
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06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Winckowski) @ Guardians (Bieber) 6:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Guardians -1.5 (+130) (5*) Josh Winckowski has made 3 career start and had a shaky 1.50 WHIP during those outings. Furthermore, Winckowski will be making his first ever MLB start on the road tonight and against a quality team. Additionally, despite their winning ways of late, Boston’s bullpen has a terrible 6.14 ERA and 1.59 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Despite losing their last 2 games, Cleveland has still gone 17-6 during its last 23, and hasn’t lost 3 straight since 5/26. Shane Bieber has gone 6-1 during his last 7 team starts with a stellar 2.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and amassed a 55:9 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 1/3 innings pitched. Since the start of last season, Bieber has gone 15-1 in his team starts whenever Cleveland was a money line favorite of -125 to -175. The Cleveland bullpen has a sparkling 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home this season. Give me the Guardians on the run line. |
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06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Phillies (Suarez) @ Padres (Musgrove) 9:40 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Padres -1.5 (+145) (5*) The Phillies lefthander Ranger Suarez has recorded a lofty 5.29 ERA over his last 3 road starts. The Phillies bullpen continues to be erratic this season which has been the norm for a few years now. Philadelphia has a terrible .200 team batting average and .287 OBP throughout their previous 7 games. That certainly doesn’t bode well when having to face a top starting pitcher like Joe Musgrove. Speaking of Musgrove, he is 11-1 in his team starts this season with a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Furthermore, all 12 of his outings fall under the category of a quality start 96.0 or more innings pitched and 3 or few earned runs allowed). The Padres have won 9 of Musgrove’s 12 starts by 2 runs or more. San Diego is also 17-7 versus lefthanded starting pitchers this season. Give me the Padres on the run line. |
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06-19-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Cubs | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Braves (Anderson) @ Cubs (Hendricks) 2:20 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Braves -1.5 (+105) The Braves had their 14-game win streak snapped after Friday’s 1-0 loss at Wrigley Field. Ian Anderson performance lines have regressed from a season ago. Nonetheless, he pitched 7.0 scoreless innings while allowing just 1 hit during his lone start against the Cubs last season. The Braves bullpen has an excellent 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. During that identical 7-game span, Braves batters hit an eye-popping 21 home runs. The Cubs are 1-10 in their last 11 heading into the weekend’s MLB action and were outscored by an enormous average of 5.4 runs per game. Kyle Hendricks has displayed poor form over his last 5 starts while recording a 6.18 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has an atrocious 13.65 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, and surrendered 10 homers in 29 1/3 innings throughout its last 7 games. The Cubbies also have been anemic offensively of late which is evidenced by them averaging a mere 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660). Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play. |
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06-16-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Cubs | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Padres (Musgrove) @ Cubs (Swarmer) 2:20 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Padres -1.5 (-113) The Padres have won the first 3-games of this series at Wrigley Field and outscored the Cubs by a substantial margin of 35-11 while doing so. The Cubs have now lost 9 in a row heading into today and were outscored by an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Cubs Matt Swarmer has made 3 starts in 2022 and allowed an alarmingly high 9 home runs in just 17.0 innings pitched. Considering the weather forecast is calling for winds blowing 14-15 MPH out to right-center today, that doesn’t bode well for Swarmer. Throughout the previous 7 games the Cubs bullpen has recorded an abysmal 11.50 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and allowed 12 home runs in 36.0 innings. The Cubs are a terrible 4-16 at home this season following a loss. The Padres have gone 10-3 in their last 13 and includes 6-0 during away games. As a matter of fact, San Diego is 23-11 on the road this season. Joe Musgrove is enjoying a fabulous start to the season while going 10-1 in his team starts with an excellent 1.50 ERA. The Padres hurler has been even more dominating over his last 4 starts with a 0.33 ERA while logging 27.0 innings pitched. Musgrove has allowed only 4 home runs in 11 starts this season and that’s significant. The Cubs are a dismal 1-10 at home this season when facing a pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer home runs per start. The Padres bullpen has an outstanding 0.95 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over their last 7 games. |
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06-15-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Braves (Strider) @ Nationals (Fedde) 7:05 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-105) (5*) Washington has gone an abysmal 14-46 since the start of last season as a money line home underdog of +100 or greater. Washington is a terrible 4-15 at home in 2022 when facing a righthanded starting pitcher. Erick Fedde makes his first start of the season versus Atlanta. Fedde was 0-4 in his team starts versus the Braves last season while posting a massive 10.39 ERA. Atlanta has won 13 consecutive games with 11 of those wins coming by 2 or more runs. During this 13-0 run, Atlanta has outscored their opponents by an average of 4.1 runs per game. During their last 7 games Atlanta has hit an enormous 22 home runs. Spence Strider has shown solid form over his last 3 starts with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The Atlanta bullpen has been terrific throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 1.14 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*) The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 4:10 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Phillies -1.5 (-105) (10*) Madison Bumgarner has a lofty 5.63 ERA over his last 4 starts and allowed 6 home runs in 24.0 innings pitched. That high ratio of home runs allowed is problematic when considering he’ll be facing a Phillies team which has cracked 21 home runs throughout its previous 8 games. The Arizona bullpen has been extremely shaky of late. Since last season, Arizona is 6-30 during the month of June. The Phillies enter today riding a red-hot 8-game win streak and scored 6 runs or more 7 times. Blake Wheeler has a brilliant 1.73 ERA and 0.94 WHIP during 6 home starts this season. The maligned Phillies bullpen has been terrific recently. Give me the Phillies on the run-line. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*) Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below. Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*) Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660). Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team. Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year. |
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06-08-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Twins | 1-8 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cortes) @ Twins (Archer) 7:40 PM ET Game# 967-968 Play On: Yankees -1.5 (-105) (5*) The current total in this game is 9.0. Chris Archer is 0-6 in his team starts this season when there was a total of 8.5 to 10.0 and Minnesota lost by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Archer has an uninspiring 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 5 home starts this season. The Yankees have won 7 in a row and outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 48-11. That now makes the Yankees a scintillating 33-9 in their previous 42 games played. During that stretch the Bronx Bombers have a team batting average of .309 and socked 16 home runs. Hector Cortes has been sensational this season for New York with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 10 starts. He’s especially been in terrific form over his last 5 starts with a 1.27 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and averaged 7.1 innings per start. The Yankees bullpen has recorded a 1.53 ERA over their last 7 games. Additionally, during that 7-game stretch Yankees relievers have only been asked to pitch 17 2/3 innings pitched due to strong performances by their starting pitchers. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET Game# 519-52 Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*) The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami. These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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06-03-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Braves (Fried) @ Rockies (Kuhl) 8:40 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Braves -1.5 (-110) (5*) Atlanta won the opening game of this series 13-6 yesterday. Colorado has now allowed 39 runs and 51 hits in their previous 3 games. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 26 runs and amassed 44 hits over their last 3 games. Chad Kuhl has shown shaky form over his last 4 starts with a 6.38 ERA and alarmingly high 1.96 WHIP. The Colorado bullpen has a terrible 6.15 ERA over their previous 7 games. Max Fried has pitched 6.0 innings or more in his last 8 starts while posting a sparkling 2.52 ERA. Fried made 1 career start at Coors Field and allowed 0 earned runs in 6.0 innings pitched. The Braves bullpen has an impressive 2.17 ERA on the road this season and converted on 8 of its 10 save opportunities. Atlanta is currently a money line favorite of -173. Since the start of last season, the Braves are 3-14 as a money line favorite of -125 or greater and outscored their opponents by an average of 2.1 runs per game. Give me the Braves on the run line. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*) Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State. However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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06-01-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Astros (Verlander) @ A’s (Irvin) 3:37 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Astros -1.5 (-125) (5*) Oakland is coming off a 3-1 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The A’s have now gone a miserable 7-20 at home this season. Additionally, the A’s are 2-14 this season as a home money line underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by 3.4 runs per game. Cole Irvin has made 4 career starts versus Houston and all those occurred last season. During those 4 outings Irvin recorded a 7.41 ERA and allowed 6 home runs in 20 1/3 innings pitched. The A’s were 0-4 in those matchups and lost by a sizable 4.3 runs per game. The Oakland bullpen has a terrible 7.50 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over their last 7 games. Jason Verlander has been lights out all season but has been especially strong in his away starts. Verlander has made 6 road starts with a brilliant 1.85 ERA and 0.82 WHIP while averaging 6.5 innings pitched per outing. Verlander has a season 2.41 ERA in 13 starts. He’ll be facing an Oakland team that’s gone an abysmal 0-12 this season when facing American League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.70 or better. The Astros bullpen has been locked in throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 0.48 ERA. Give me the Astros on the run line. |
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05-30-22 | Nationals v. Mets -1.5 | 5-13 | Win | 110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Nationals (Fedde) @ Mets (Peterson) 7:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Mets -1.5 (+110) (5*) Nationals righthander Erick Fedde is 0-4 in his career team starts at Citi Field with a uninspiring 5.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Nationals bullpen has been very good at home but that’s not the case during away games. The Nationals bullpen has posted a 5.91 ERA and 1.58 WHIP during away games in 2022. The Mets are coming off a 3-game sweep over Philadelphia at Citi Field. The Mets are now on a modest 5-game win streak at home. New York has averaged 8.1 runs scored and 11.2 hits per game throughout their previous 6 outings. The Mets are 26-9 this season when facing righthanded starting pitchers. The Mets David Peterson is 4-0 in his team starts this season with a brilliant 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peterson has made 3 career starts versus Washington with all of them coming since 2020. During those outings Peterson registered an excellent 1.08 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Give me the Mets on the run line. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*) This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait. Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*) Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Royals (Heasley) @ Diamondbacks (Gallen) 9:40 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) (5*) Kansas City has lost 5 straight and allowed 7.6 runs per game while doing so. The Royals Jon Heasley has been uninspiring in his 2 starts this season while posting a large 1.80 WHIP. Heasley struck out only 2 while walking 7 in 8 1/3 innings pitched. Arizona has won 4 of its last 5 and averaged 6.6 runs scored per game. Zac Gallen has been dominating in 7 starts this season with an exceptional 1.14 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a stellar 2.87 ERA over their last 7 games. Give me Arizona on the run-line. |
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05-21-22 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Nationals (Corbin) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Brewers -1.5 (-105) (5*) The Nationals Patrick Corbin has gone 0-8 in his team starts this season with a lousy 6.28 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Washing has scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 and includes last night’s 7-0 loss at Milwaukee. They’ll be facing a Milwaukee Brewers team that’s 12-3 in their last 15 at home and a starting pitcher who’s dominated them. Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is 3-0 in his home team starts this season with an excellent 1.62 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. Woodruff has made 4 career starts versus Washington with an awesome 1.13 ERA and 0.54 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen has been strong over their last 7 games while recording a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Give me the Brewers on the run-line. |