After Navy's destruction of Georgia Southern two weeks ago, it because one win away from bowl eligibility with this game and the annual game against Army remaining. The Midshipmen have been all over the place this season and look nothing like the Navy team we have seen over the last few years. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot as this is their first true road game since October 4th, a span of nearly two months. South Alabama is already bowl eligible with six wins but going to a bowl is no guarantee so getting to seven wins is a must. The Jaguars are getting a ton of points here and a lot of that is due to their recent run of six straight non-covers and those are streaks we like to buck especially when asking an average team to cover close to double-digits. South Alabama would also like to get some payback from its 42-14 loss at Navy a season ago. We play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (334) South Alabama Jaguars

We Lost with going against Western Michigan last week as it went on the road and defeated Central Michigan to keep the logjam in place in the MAC West. The Broncos are tied with Toledo and Northern Illinois at 6-1 with a berth in the MAC Championship on the line this week. While Western Michigan has the edge of playing at home, this line is not where it should be as these teams are pretty equal as far as power rankings go so there is an inflation based on the fact that the Broncos have covered an insane 10 straight games. They have won six straight games which betters North Illinois' winning streak by just one. The Huskies have won five straight with three of those coming on the road and at 5-1 on the highway, winning away from home is no problem. This has been a series the Huskies have dominated and even though the Broncos are vastly improved, a 43-point line shift from last year's meeting is simply too much. Northern Illinois is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 10* (319) Northern Illinois Huskies

The Eagles and Cowboys were both involved in high scoring games this past Sunday and we are getting some excellent value in the total because of it. It was the fourth straight over for Philadelphia as the offense put up the second most amount of points this season with both of those high output games coming at home. The Eagles are averaging 36.7 ppg at home which is the second most in the league but that average drops to 24.4 ppg on the road which is a significant dropoff. Dallas' defense has been pretty consistent both on the road and at home but and they have allowed more than 21 points at home only twice. The Cowboys have gone over the total in two straight games but those were away from home where they have gone over in three straight games. Both teams fall into great situations. First, we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Philadelphia Eagles/(308) Dallas Cowboys

The Lions return home following a two-game roadtrip where they lost both games while scoring a grand total of 15 points. They have now gone under the total in four straight games and nine of their last 10 but Thursday presents a great opportunity for a high scoring game based on situation and opponent. Detroit is coking off its worst defensive performance of the season as it allowed 34 points and 439 total yards against the Patriots. Chicago is also coming off a low scoring game, its second straight under but those games were both at home. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their six road games this season while allowing 55 and 51 points in their two most recent road outings. That should certainly help a Detroit offense that is stuck in neutral to move forward starting on Thursday. The Bears have gone over the total in their last seven road games following one or more consecutive wins and Detroit has a great situational angle on its side. We play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that are between + and - 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 and -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 62-28 (68.9 percent)to the over since 1983. 10* Over (305) Chicago Bears/(306) Detroit Lions

Ohio enters this game with a 5-6 record so it needs a win to become bowl eligible for the sixty straight season and while a bowl game is no guarantee, the Bobcats have to win and hope. Avoiding a sub-.500 season and a loss to the hated RedHawks certainly isn't a bad prize either for the Bobcats. One look at the schedule shows the season it has been as Ohio is 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against everyone else. That lone loss was against a very good Kentucky team and the Bobcats are 3-0 against teams in the MAC East that they are either tied with or are below them. It has been an improved season for Miami as it has won twice following a 21-game losing skid and some of the losses this year were close ones but it will be tough for the RedHawks to pull this one out. Ohio, faced with rebuilding an offense in 2014, lost starting quarterback Derrius Vick for five games in the middle of the year because of injury. But his return, and the emergence of freshman running back A.J. Ouellette have provided the offense with some stability in recent weeks. With Ouellette and Vick providing a 1-2 rushing punch in the backfield, the Bobcats could find success against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in the MAC in points allowed (32.5) and rushing yards allowed (201.8) per game. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Redhawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Ohio to pull away here and at least have a chance at playing in another bowl game. 10* (301) Ohio Bobcats

The NFC South continued its disappointing season Sunday with first place Atlanta losing at home against Cleveland which put New Orleans back on the top spot by a half-game despite being two games under .500. The Saints have lost two straight games at home which is certainly a rarity and they have never lost three straight home games under head coach Sean Payton. If there is any team that can bounce back from that, it is the Saints as they love the spotlight by winning 14 straight primetime games at home including the playoffs by close to 20 ppg. In his last six Monday Night Football games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, all victories, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes and thrown 23 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Ravens were off last week which gave them time to heal some injuries but they are still pretty banged up, especially in the secondary which is not a good thing. They are coming off a win over Tennessee and they will need to win to keep pace in the division but Baltimore is just 1-3 in its last four road games with the lone victory coming against Tampa Bay. Despite being just 4-5 over the last nine games, New Orleans has won the yardage battle in seven of those and they are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg which is fifth best in the NFL. Teams on three-game homestands can be in good positions depending on the outcome of the first two games and that is the case here as home teams that are coming off consecutive losses at home are 18-5 ATS. 10* (278) New Orleans Saints

While the term 'must win' gets thrown around a lot in the NFL circles, that phrase holds true for Seattle this coming Sunday. Following their loss at Kansas City last week, Seattle is just 3-3 over its last six games to fall to 6-4 on the season which is three games behind Arizona in the NFC West. A loss here and their chances of a divisional title are gone and even a Wild Card spot would be dim. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL but they still have five divisional games remaining so they can help control their own density. Seattle has not forgotten about Arizona coming in here last year and winning. The Cardinals are on a six-game winning streak and have covered all of those games as well so we are getting a lot of value based on that and their overall 9-1 record. They defeated Detroit last week with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback but now on the road in the toughest environment in football will cause him some struggles. We have two awesome situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 70 and 95 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 70 and 95 ypg rushing. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 8-0 ATS its last eight games as a home favorite of seven points or less. 10* (268) Seattle Seahawks *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR*

The Chargers were able to snap their three-game losing streak last week against Oakland but they did not look particularly good in doing so. They won by just a touchdown and outgained Oakland by only 67 total yards and the non-cover made it five straight losses against the number. That does nothing but help us this week as San Diego is laying a shorter than expected number. The Chargers are 6-4 but because of the Denver loss last week, they are just a game out in the AFC West. That Broncos loss came compliments of St. Louis who has put together some good games against some very good teams but the problem is that the Rams cannot put together a winning streak. They have lost all three games following their previous wins this season and losing all three against the number as well. The last two follow up games have been on the road and they lost by 27 and 17 points and despite a 3-2 record over the last five games, the Rams were outgained in all five of those contests. Going back, the Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win while going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game and has a great situation in its side as we play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 74-39 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR*

The Lions lost a tough one in Arizona last Sunday as they lost by eight points, snapping their four-game winning streak. While it is well known they are not a great outdoor team, the value here is too good to pass up especially when they possess the best defense in the NFL. Detroit closed as a one-point favorite in Arizona and now it is a touchdown underdog so the linesmakers are saying there is an eight-point differential between the Cardinals and Patriots and that is simply not the case. A big reason that the line is as big as it is here is due to the recent play of the Patriots. They have won six straight games since that debacle in Kansas City, covering five of those, and of those six games, three were high profile games including the last two against Denver and Indianapolis and that is surely what the public remembers, thus the need for a line adjustment higher than it should be. The Lions fall into two solid angles here. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a yppl differential of +/- 0.4, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (255) Detroit Lions *ENFORCER*

The Vikings were unable to continue their winning streak after their bye week as it came to an end in Chicago at two games. They head back home to take on Green Bay and will be out to seek some revenge from their 42-10 beatdown earlier this season. Minnesota is 2-2 at home and this is the start of a three-game homestand which is typically a good scenario for teams and I think that will be the case for Minnesota despite playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Packers are coming off dominating performances in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Eagles as they scored 55 and 53 points respectively. The game against Chicago was over before it started but the game last week was not nearly as bad as the score indicated. Green Bay scored three touchdowns via defense and special teams and no team is going to be able to recover from that. It is obviously imperative for the Vikings to take care of the ball and they have been able to do so of late as they have just three turnovers in their last four games compared to 10 turnovers in their first six games. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season. 10* (258) Minnesota Vikings *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG*

We are going with a great probability dynamic here as we are catching two teams on current totals streaks that are very uncommon. With the days of scoring in the NFL at an all time high, it is rare to find two teams involved in so many low scoring games but that is the case here with the Browns and Falcons. Cleveland has gone under the total in six straight games while Atlanta has gone under the total in six straight games as well. The most shocking thing about this is the overall body of work of the two sides. Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense and are 10th in total offense which would normally lead to high scoring games which obviously has not been the case. Cleveland's splits are not as extreme but they are still shaded the same way as the Browns defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while their offense is ranked 14th. The reasoning for the lower scores has been turnovers which has taken away scoring chances on offense and prevented them on defense. This is a big anomaly and one that we can take advantage of when putting the two together as we are getting value in the number based on the current totals runs. Atlanta is much higher scoring team at home and this is their first home games since October 12th as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Cleveland has had two low scoring road games during the run but prior to that, the first two road games went over with scores of 57 points in each. We get back to that this week. 10* Over (251) Cleveland Browns/(252) Atlanta Falcons *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

It has been a struggle for Wyoming as it is 4-6 on the season and will have to win out against Boise St. and New Mexico to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys looked great in a victory against Fresno St. two games back but gave it back at home against Utah St. in a 20-3 loss but they did outgain the Aggies in that one. Wyoming is coming off a bye week which is big advantage here especially getting the opportunity to remain home for the duration between the two games. This is a great time slot for the Cowboys as they can play a night game and it was picked up by ESPN2 which will make the atmosphere even better. Boise St. is on a five-game winning streak but it has covered only two of those games and is on a two-game cover skid after not being able to defeat New Mexico or San Diego St. by significant amounts. Boise St. sits in a three-way tie fir first place in the MWC East Division and its game against Utah St. at home next Saturday will play into who becomes the champion. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Wyoming Cowboys *LATE NIGHT BAILOUT*

Iowa has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 7-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Hawkeyes put up a stinker against Minnesota two games back but they bounced back with a win last time out at Illinois and are back home after that two-game roadtrip where they are 4-1 on the season. They have had this game circled for over a year as last season Wisconsin came in and won 28-9 so they will be out for revenge. Wisconsin has lost a couple close games this season as well and since the last one at Northwestern, they have reeled off five straight wins, covering the last four. That is giving us a lot of value here and the fact that the Badgers are favored by more than what they were favored at Northwestern is a huge surprise. Wisconsin brings in a potent rushing attack but Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been a master when it comes to this as under him, the Hawkeyes are 22-3 ATS versus teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, we play against road favorites with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1992. Iowa has a great shot at this one outright so we will gladly jump on the generous points given to us. 10* (158) Iowa Hawkeyes *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We played against Appalachian St. last Saturday and lost but we won't hesitate going against the Mountaineers again here as we are getting a great line. They came to play last week as they outgained Arkansas St. by 235 yards for their fourth straight victory to improve to .500 on the season. That winning streak is no doubt helping us here as they were getting four and half points more last week than this week despite playing a team that is undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference. Louisiana is 6-0 in the conference following a win over rival UL-Monroe which was its sixth straight victory after opening the season 1-3. People were writing off the Cajuns after that slow start but they are clearly playing their best football of the year at the right time. They are two wins away from securing back-to-back conference championships and would get the automatic bid even if Georgia Southern stays undefeated since they are on probation coming up from the FCS. They are at 3-8 Troy next Saturday which makes this the final home game for 16 seniors. We play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 84-38 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns *ENFORCER*

Western Michigan is riding the nation's longest winning streak against the number as it has covered nine straight games after losing the cover in its opening game against Purdue by just a point and a half. The Broncos have won five straight games and they sit in a three-way tie for first place in the MAC West with Northern Illinois and Toledo. While it is a big game, it is not a must win though as they play the Huskies as home next Friday which could decide the division champion. Central Michigan is on a three-game winning streak following a tough three-point loss against Ball St., a game in which it outgained the Cardinals by 139 yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Overall, the seven wins are the most Central Michigan has recorded during the regular season under fifth-year head coach Dan Enos. This could be considered an even bigger game for Central Michigan which is a half-game back in the MAC West and with a win over Northern Illinois already, a victory over the Broncos could put them right in the mix. The Chippewas fall into an excellent situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (150) Central Michigan Chippewas *AFTERNOON DOMINATOR*

We have been pretty high on UTEP as it has been playing solid of late. The Miners have won four of their last five games including a big win over North Texas last time out to become bowl eligible and more importantly for bettors, they have covered each of those last five games. The problem is however that UTEP has not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins have come against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. The last time the Miners faced a team with a winning record resulted in a 55-3 loss to Louisiana Tech back on October 4th. Rice comes in with the same 6-4 record and while its résumé is similar as far as wins and losses go, the Owls have fared much better against the better teams as they are outgaining opponents on average while the Miners are not. Rice had won and covered six straight games before getting blown out by Marshall in its last game but that has been the case for a lot of teams this year. They are at Louisiana Tech in their final game of the season so a win here likely means a 7-5 finish which is definitely needed for better bowl consideration. This number has come down from its opening which is what we wanted knowing that UTEP is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against losing teams while Rice is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a game on the road. 10* (118) Rice Owls *ENFORCER*

We lost with Arkansas St. last week as the Red Wolves opened a big lead but failed to hold on as they were outgained by 235 total yards. It was their worst effort of the season and I expect a big bounce back here on the road where they have won two of their last three. With no chance to win the Sun Belt Conference any more, a bowl game in no guarantee even if they finish 6-6. Arkansas St. will likely have to go 8-4 and with a sure home win next week against New Mexico St., this has become a really big game. Going back to the road success, the Red Wolves have covered 11 of their last 12 road games after the first month of the season. Texas St. is 5-5 and looking to achieve bowl eligibility but as decent as that record may look, it is impossible to ignore the numbers. The Bobcats have been outgained in seven of nine games against FBS competition and surprisingly, the two games they won the yardage battle, they lost. They have four wins against FBS foes and those have come against teams 2-8, 1-9, 3-7 and 2-8. To their credit, the Bobcats played South Alabama and Georgia Southern tough the last two games but trying to do so against a quality opponent for a third straight game is too much to ask. A big reason to go against Texas St. is the fact that it has covered four straight games and those are the streaks we like to go against when reaching that level. 10* (115) Arkansas St. Red Wolves *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR*

With Kansas City's win over Seattle coupled with the Broncos loss to the Rams, the Chiefs are tied for first place with Denver in the AFC West. It was the fifth straight win and cover fro the Chiefs but you have to wonder how this team keeps winning. They are outgaining opponents by just 2.0 ypg on the season and they have been outgained in three straight games heading into Thursday night. That all leads to them being extremely overvalued this week and making matters worse, they have a home date with the Broncos next week. The Raiders are 0-10, have not won a game since November of last season and have dropped 16 straight games going back to that last victory over Houston. While Oakland does have its own problems, the fact that its last nine games have come against winning teams has not done it any favors. And while there have been blowouts, the Raiders have played a lot of teams tough, justified by their 5-5 record against the number. While there are some notable games left on the schedule, it is safe to say this is their Super Bowl similar to the Titans on Monday night in a nationally televised game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and playing winless teams in the second half of the season in divisional games has been very lucrative over the last several years. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Oakland Raiders

This was a late opener due to the fact that Massachusetts has quarterback issues. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel was carted to the locker room in the fourth quarter last Wednesday against Ball St. with an injury to his right leg. He was questionable tonight but was downgraded to doubtful overnight and his loss is huge as Frohnapfel has accounted for 437 of the Minutemen's 442 passing attempts while throwing for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 10 picks. Freshman quarterback Austin Whipple is the backup and he has yet to throw a collegiate pass. The Minutemen have banked on their passing game to run their cover streak to six straight games but that is in serious jeopardy tonight. Akron meanwhile has been just the opposite as it has gone six straight games without a cover while losing its last four outright. The Zips were in great position to secure a bowl bid but now they are forced to win their last two games to get eligible but both games are against teams not going bowling to it is very attainable. Three of these last four games were on the road however and Akron is 3-2 at home with the losses coming against 10-0 Marshall and 7-3 Bowling Green and they actually outgained the latter but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Akron falls into a great rushing angle, something Massachusetts may have to reluctantly rely upon, as we play on conference home teams in the second half of the season that average between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Akron Zips

Home underdogs have not been a good proposition on Monday night football of late as the last three hosts getting points have lost and failed to cover (Giants, Rams and Redskins) and we are given another opportunity tonight to buck the public. As of Monday morning, close to 30,000 bets have been placed with nearly 90 percent of the action hitting the Pittsburgh side. This is a rare Monday night game for Tennessee and while it has struggled, this is the one game where you know we will see its best efforts. The Steelers loss last week against the Jets was a surprise to many but not on this end with Pittsburgh coming off a three-game homestand and its historical play in the situation at hand. With that defeat, the Steelers are 0-7 against teams with losing records at least two games under .500 with the combined records of opponents being 9-36. The Steelers defense is in shambles right now. Not only is it 18th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense which by the way are the highest they have been ranked in those categories since 1991, but they are riddled with injuries. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier are already declared out with many others on the fence. On the other side, other than a 37-point outburst at Carolina, Pittsburgh has scored three offensive touchdowns in its four other road games. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Tennessee Titans

It is no secret that the Bears have struggled but the schedulemakers have done them no favors. How's this for a start? Home game, two road games, home game, two road games, home game, two road games. This Sunday begins a stretch of five home games over their next six so if this season is to turn around, it has to start this week and with so many home games on a tap, angry fans will not be pleasant going forward. Chicago's last two games have come against the Patriots and Packers and it was humiliated in both games after allowing 51 and 55 points respectively. With the last one taking place on National Television last week, the Bears will be out to bounce back from that embarrassment which everyone witnessed. The Vikings are coming off their bye week following two straight wins and at 4-5 through nine games, they are just one win shy of their win total from all of last season. This is not a good spot for Minnesota though as it is catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 81-44 ATS (64.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a home win by three points or less while Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off two consecutive road losses. Additionally, the Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (454) Chicago Bears

Following its upset last Thursday in Cincinnati, Cleveland is in first place in the AFC North for the first time in November since 1994. The Browns were on a 0-17 run in road divisional games prior to last week as you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season to find the last time they won on the AFC North highway. Can you say letdown with the lowly Texans coming to town this Sunday? Cleveland is a surprise to many but the jury is still out on how good this team really is considering the fact it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has been fortunate by winning or tying the turnover margin in all but one game. Houston is coming off its bye week which was a perfect time to make a quarterback change which it did as Ryan Mallet takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was far from horrible as he had a decent 8.1 quarterback rating, just below Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill and just above Matthew Stafford. Current head coach Bill O'Brien was Mallet's offensive coordinator when he was a rookie in New England so he definitely sees something positive in making this move. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (451) Houston Texans

This is the first time this season that Seattle is listed as an underdog and it comes at an excellent time. The Seahawks went through a bit of a funk as they lost two straight games against Dallas and St. Louis and then narrowly slipped past Carolina and Oakland but they have won three straight games and are starting to get some of that swagger back. After the Giants put up a fight in the first half last week, Seattle ran away with the game in the second half so it comes in with some momentum. While it is the first time this season, it is just the fifth time in the last 38 games that Seattle has been getting points and it covered all four of those previous instances. The Chiefs are hot with a four-game winning streak while having covered all of those games as well. That is the biggest factor in making them the favorite here but while it is justified based on power ratings, I don't think it is justified based on the stats. Kansas City is outgaining opponents by just over 10 ypg and it has been outgained in its last two games. While the home edge is big because of the noise, Seattle is no stranger to noise and with Arizona and San Francisco on deck in four of their next five games, this is a must win for the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a home win and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game and that is where that momentum really comes into play. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (457) Seattle Seahawks

Oregon St. opened the season 4-1 but it has dropped its last four games to fall a game under .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2011. The Beavers have failed to cover and of those last four games as well so this line is based on that as well as a high profile team coming to visit. It will be up to the Oregon St. offense to trying and get things going as it has been moving the ball well but failing to find the end zone and settling for field goals has been the big issue. And the Beavers have a great chance here to bust out and the time slot for this game could not be any better for them. Arizona St. is in first place in the Pac 12 South, while sporting an 8-1 overall record thanks to five straight wins. The most recent was a 55-31 beatdown of Notre Dame, which also put the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff discussion where they are currently sixth. But they are in a horrible spot as the Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back victories at home against ranked opponents so there is a chance they could be due for a letdown on the road. The home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and well as victories in seven of the last eight meetings. Oregon St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a loss by seven points or less and under head coach Mike Riley, it is 6-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (394) Oregon St. Beavers

This is an interesting matchup in that both Utah and Stanford are coming off blowout losses against Oregon in their last game. The Utes lost last week 51-27 which was their second straight loss and the fact they are even as good as 4-3 over their last seven games is astounding as they have been outgained in every one of those seven games. Overall, Utah is 6-3 but it has been outgained by an average of 18.2 ypg which may not seen significant but it is important because lines and public perception go hand-in-hand with the records of teams. Stanford lost two weeks ago at Oregon 45-16 but it was only a 15-point game in the fourth quarter and the Cardinal were outgained by just 97 total yards so that loss was not nearly as bad as the final score shows similar to the Utah game. But that game was on the road which is a big difference. While Stanford is a game worse than Utah, it is outgaining opponents by 106.6 ypg which is a better indication of how it is playing compared to Utah but the touchdown spread is attracting Utah money because of the records and Stanford's supposed struggles. The Cardinal have been a great bounceback team as they are 22-9 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. This is the final home game for the Stanford seniors and they will make it count. 10* (356) Stanford Cardinal

After starting the season 1-5 with the lone victory coming over Campbell of the FCS and one of those losses coming off another FCS team, Appalachian St, has turned the corner and won its last three games. Now the Mountaineers are catching double-digits for just the third time this season but don't think we will be jumping on the bandwagon here. They were blown out in those two games when getting double-digit points and this current win streak has come against teams that are a combined 6-23. Arkansas St. still has a lot to play for as it is 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and still has a shot at its fourth straight conference championship. It will need help along the way but the Red Wolves have no choice but to win out and with the three remaining teams sitting below them in the standings, this should happen. Arkansas St. is already bowl eligible but there is certainly more to play for and playing at home has been a great advantage as they are 4-0 straight up and against the number in Jonesboro. Arkansas St. has been favored by double-digits five times this season and they have gone 4-1 ATS in those games with the lone spread loss coming by just a half-point. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in November games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. Arkansas St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg and 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. 10* (352) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is one of the biggest games in recent memory for Minnesota as it sits in a three-way tie in the Big Ten West Division at 4-1 with Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here's the deal. If the Golden Gophers win out, they are the division champions but with the final two games of the season against the aforementioned Huskers and Badgers on the road, that probably isn't likely. Still, this is a very solid team that should be undefeated in the conference as a loss to Illinois is the lone blemish despite outgaining the Illini by 148 yards. The Gophers are coming off a destruction last week against a very good Iowa team so the confidence is sky high. Ohio St. continued its march toward the College Football Playoff as it took care of Michigan St. last week without much problem. This is the Buckeyes final road game of the season before closing at home against Indiana and Michigan so a trip to the Big Ten Championship seems imminent. Ohio St. has covered all but one of its last seven games since losing to Virginia Tech so the lines are shaded the other way and the Gophers are catching a higher than expected number here. This is also a big letdown spot for the Buckeyes after their revenge win over the Spartans. Minnesota's only other loss came at TCU where it committed five turnovers. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights

The public has been absolutely killing it with the NFL Primetime overs as they have gone a combined 24-7 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. While that would normally steer me to the under for this Thursday game based on percentages alone, the last two Thursday games have actually gone under the number so there is no value going that way. The value I feel is actually going the other way with both Buffalo and Miami coming off low scoring games this past week and now having to play on a short week, which can typically be a detriment to the defense. Buffalo lost to Kansas City and only 30 total points were scored which came after their game against the Jets where 66 total points were put up. Prior to that, the Bills and Vikings only scored 33 points after Buffalo put up 59 total points with the Patriots. This goes to show how one game style does not necessarily feed into the next. It can be argued that the Dolphins have had that happen based on four straight games that have gone under the total. But I think that has had a lot to do with the opponent and how the game played out. Miami has averaged 30.6 ppg in its previous five games before last week where they scored 16 points but facing the best defense in the NFL in the Lions can do that. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Bills last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and Miami falls into a great situation where we play on the over where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points involving teams off 1 or more consecutive unders and outscoring opponents +3 to +7 ppg going up against teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (309) Buffalo Bills/(310) Miami Dolphins

East Carolina has absolutely dominated the stat book this season as it has outgained all eight opponents but somehow has a couple losses in there. The worst one came last time out against Temple and even though it was on the road, the Pirates were big favorites by 9.5 points and lost by 10 points despite outgaining the Owls by 293 total yards. Losing five fumbles will do that to just about any team. When you outgain the opponent in every game, the net yardage variance is usually big and for East Carolina, it has +210.1 ypg differential which is fifth best in the country. After covering their first four games, the Pirates have failed to cover their last four and that is giving us tremendous value even though they are favored once again. Cincinnati has won three straight games while covering all three as well which goes along with the contrarian value again. Despite being 5-3 overall, the Bearcats are actually getting outgained by an average of close to 10 ypg so we are talking about a huge statistical variance between these two teams and while both may be 3-1 in the AAC, they are very different 3-1 teams. East Carolina is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (311) East Carolina Pirates

Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons

This game has turned into a big rivalry in the MAC and this year there is a lot on the line with first place in the MAC West in the sights for both teams. The winner will keep pace and be in good position while the loser could very well be eliminated after tonight. Northern Illinois has won three straight games and trails Toledo by a game so a victory will put it into a first place tie but the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker. After two straight road games, this is the first home game in three weeks and it is also the final home game of the season which given Northern Illinois a big edge for Senior Night. Toledo has yet to lose in the conference but it has had some close calls along the way. This game was off the board until Monday due to the injury situation for Toledo. Logan Woodside has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight with a leg injury suffered last week at Kent St. He has thrown for 1,711 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five picks and has been the general in a Toledo offense that has had no problem putting points on the board. The Rockets will likely lean on redshirt freshman Michael Julian, who finished out the last game against Kent St. but was largely ineffective. Even if Woodside cane go, he will not be close to 100 percent. The Huskies have a great contrarian situation on their side as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 42-10 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (304) Northern Illinois Huskies

With the Saints losing on Sunday, Carolina knows that a win here has it right back in first place in the NFC South, the only division in football without a team with a winning record. The Panthers have struggled of late with a 0-3-1 record over their last four games but the schedule has been rigid. They have faced the Bengals on the road and then followed that up with games against Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans. Philadelphia is no slouch certainly but it is far from full strength now with quarterback Nick Foles out of the lineup for at least the remainder of the regular season. He has done an awesome job in leading the Eagles high powered offense which currently is averaging 29.3 ppg and 409.3 ypg, respectively 5th and 4th in the NFL. Now they have to move forward with Mark Sanchez who looked good at times last week against Houston when he came in but this is still a backup quarterback we are talking about. This is a good thing for the Panthers whose defense has regressed since finishing second in both total defense and scoring defense a season ago. On the other side, the Eagles defense is very average which will give Carolina a great opportunity to bounce back from its recent struggles. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers also fall into a great contrarian situation based on the scoring as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers

The under last Sunday night was looking good through three quarters with just 32 points on the board but then Baltimore and Pittsburgh erupted for 34 points in the final quarter to push another Sunday night game over the total and make bookmakers across the world cringe once again. That is because the over is now an uncanny 8-1 on Sunday nights and overall in all primetime games, 22 of 28 games have gone over the number. The public continues to ride this trend which will come crashing down eventually and all the linesmakers can to is keep raising the number. The first meeting this season between Chicago and Green Bay closed at 51 so we are seeing close to a field goal more this time around. Some of that is due to the recent primetime scoring as well as the trends between these two teams. While the Bears went over the total in their last game prior to their bye, the Packers went over the total in their last five games prior to their bye and on the season, they are 7-1 to the over. It is a safe bet the over is going to be hammered again this week so the best bet is to wait until closer to game time as we should see it go up even more barring any weather issues which does not look to be the case as of now. Chicago is 18-7 to the under in its last 25 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 9-1 to the under in its last 10 road games after being outgained by 100 or more yards two consecutive games. Green Bay fall into a situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (271) Chicago Bears/(272) Green Bay Packers

The Jets were one of our big plays last week and they were a couple plays of not only covering but having a chance to pull off the outright upset. They are a team that has been doing nothing but hurting themselves as mistakes has been the biggest cause of their eight-game losing streak. New York has outgained each of its last three opponents but obviously has no wins to show for it and the real kicker is that on the season, the Jets are actually outgaining opponents by 4.8 ypg. You will not find many teams in the history of this league that are 1-8 but outgaining their opponents. The Steelers are the biggest consensus pick of the week which come as no surprise with the Jets problems as well as the fact Pittsburgh is now on a three-game winning streak. All of those came at home and you could not have asked for better situations in any of those. Coming off a three-game homestand has been a disaster for a lot of teams as they lose more than they win and this situation is even better considering the Steelers are facing a team that is 1-8 and not from their division. The Jets have two fantastic situations backing them as well. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Next, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) New York Jets

The Dolphins have quietly won three straight games but there was nothing quiet last week with their 37-0 trouncing of the Chargers and that of course is what the public remembers. The winning streak could feasibly be five games right now has Miami not lost in the final seconds at home against Green Bay but nonetheless it is just a game and a half behind the Patriots in the AFC East and already with a victory over New England. While the Dolphins have been exceptional on the road the last few years, they head into Detroit in a very unfavorable spot. The Lions are also riding a three-game winning streak and coming off their bye week following their come-from-behind win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. It is a well known fact that winning teams across the pond have struggled in their first game back but the situations have been different. Detroit has back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England on deck so it knows it needs to take care of business at home plus the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Detroit was favored by 1.5 points over the Saints in their last home game and to be favored by not much more here is surprising. The Dolphins are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (254) Detroit Lions

While Atlanta was able to cover the total on its own in the first matchup, we likely will not be seeing that again here but I think the Falcons can get something going on that side of the ball after not doing much of late. After averaging 32.8 ppg through their first four games, the Falcons have averaged a mere 15.3 ppg over their last four games so it should come as no surprise that all four of these recent games have stayed under the number. Having a bye week was huge as the offensive line was severely banged up and while still not 100 percent, they are definitely in better shape now. The Falcons defense has done its part to try and get over the total as it has allowed 27 ppg over this four-game stretch which is great news for the Buccaneers which have been stuck in neutral most of the season. Tampa Bay is second to last in points scored in the league but it has faced some good defenses along the way. That changes here as Atlanta has the worst total defense in the NFL and fourth worst scoring defense. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in its last two games which again adds to the value this week. Tampa Bay is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games while the over is 8-3 in the Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Also, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (263) Atlanta Falcons/(264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oregon and Utah both come in riding 4-0 ATS runs but there is a huge difference between the two. Utah has lost the yardage battle in all four of those games and is actually 0-6 in TYD over its last six games, while Oregon has outgained its opponent in three the last four games including three in a row. We played against the Utes last Saturday against Arizona St. and it was an extremely frustrating non-cover as they were outgained by 203 total yards but lost by just three points in overtime. Now Utah faces the most explosive offense it has seen and one that surely will keep the pedal down in order to impress the playoff committee. The Ducks are right back in the hunt in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as they moved from fifth lace to fourth place so now they control their own destiny for the most part and that is a huge motivator. Laying points on the road can be tricky but if there is one team that has no problem doing it, it is the Ducks are they are 15-6 over their last 21 games as a road chalk including 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. Additionally, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Utes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (193) Oregon Ducks

UTEP cashed for us last week as it rolled over Southern Mississippi even though the Miners played far from their best game. We will be riding them again this week as they are getting points against a team that is going in the opposite direction. UTEP has won three straight games and is just one win from bowl eligibility so it has already matched its win total for the last two seasons combined. The big turnaround can be attributed to a defense that has allowed only 14 points over the last two games and while it will b e facing a tougher offense this week, it is the defense on the other side that makes this one pop. Western Kentucky has been able to stop no one of late as it has allowed 42, 45, 51 and 59 points the last four games, each getting worse going forward. That is not a good sign going up against a Miners offense that is clicking at the right time by averaging 37 ppg over its last three games. We have two great situations on our side as first, we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game against going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 40 ypg in rushing differential going up against teams getting outrushed by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (167) UTEP Miners

We have been involved in only one Kansas game this season and that was back in Week Five when we bet against the Jayhawks and they were shutout at Texas. That was the first of five straight losses to open Big XII action and Kansas is now one loss away from staying home in the postseason for the sixth straight season. While we would not touch the Jayhawks if they were laying any sort of number, the fact they are getting points here against a team that is just as bad shows tremendous value. The Cyclones come in with an identical 2-6 record and while they do own one quality victory this season against Iowa, it has been a rough stretch since then. Iowa St. is 1-4 over its last five games while getting outgained by 716 yards over that stretch. The last time Iowa St. was asked to lay points on the road was close to two years ago in this same stadium and while it succeeded with a big win over Kansas, the situation was totally different as the Cyclones needed that win to become bowl eligible. And now, they are laying more points with the slightest chance of going bowling this season. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a loss by 35 or more points. 10* (140) Kansas Jayhawks

We have gone against Army on the road twice this season at Stanford and at Wake Forest and it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 19 straight game on the highway. That is the true highway however and this game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium and not counting the game against Navy, a perennial beatdown, the Black Knights in fact won their other neutral site game last season against Louisiana Tech. Connecticut is coming off an upset win at home last weekend against Central Florida which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Huskies took advantage of four turnovers which ended up being the difference as they scored a season high 37 points. They managed only 327 yards of offense which has been the issue all season and despite the eight-point win, Connecticut was outgained by 102 yard. It was the seventh time in eight games that the Huskies have been outgained this season with the only positive yardage differential being just 35 yards against Temple. Now Connecticut is being asked to lay points for the first time this season against a team from the FBS and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, losing four of those games outright with the lone victory coming against Stony Brook of the FCS by just three points. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 34 or more ppg while going 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (158) Army Black Knights

We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys

At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals

It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Northern Illinois has to get out of this game with a win and then gets a chance to host first place Toledo next Tuesday with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Huskies have not been the dominating team like they have been in the past but they are sitting at 3-1 in the conference which is just a game out of first place. The proof of not being dominant this season is looking at their recent ATS record as Northern Illinois is currently on a five-game losing streak against the number. That sets us up very well here as we are catching a very manageable number to cover by. Ball St. is 3-5 overall including a 2-2 record in the MAC. The Cardinals have won two straight games which came after a five-game losing skid. They defeated Colgate out of the FCS in their season opener while outgaining the Red Raiders by 287 yards but since then, they are 1-5-1 TYD (Total Yardage Differential) and are getting outgained by close to 40 ypg. On the flip side, Northern Illinois is outgaining opponents by 62.3 ypg and cit has been outgained only twice all season. Ball St. will be fired up for a home game on national TV but that won't be enough here as the Huskies are still the much better team with a lot more at stake. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (107) Northern Illinois Huskies

Toledo is coming off a win against Massachusetts in its last game by just seven points and now it is laying its second biggest number of the season and on the road no less. The Rockets have not been able to cover much this season as they are 1-6 against FBS teams and a big reason for that is that they are still a public favorite and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent by more than 14 points. They have been outgained on four of their seven games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous as they have allowed 35 or more points four times. This is a defense that even Kent St. should be able to break through as it has not been able to do so very much. The Golden Flashes have scored more than 17 points only once this season but their defense has kept some of their games within reason as not counting games against Virginia and Ohio St., four of the other five losses have been by 10 points or less. Toledo is in first place in the MAC West with a 4-0 record but right on its heels is 3-1 Northern Illinois which plays Wednesday and the Rockets travel to face the Huskies next Tuesday which puts them in a classic lookahead spot here. While the Rockets may come away with the victory here, doing so by more than two touchdowns is too much to ask. 10* (104) Kent St. Golden Flashes

A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants

We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers

After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets

We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers

I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

We missed the good opening number on this one but it should not come into play anyway. UTEP won its second straight game, a 34-0 shutout of UTSA on Saturday and it dominated just as the score indicates as the Miners won the yardage battle by 281 yards. Now they head back home where they are 2-1 and they are also 2-1 in the conference while a victory will have them one win away from bowl eligibility. Not bad for a team that won only five games over the last two years combined. Southern Mississippi has also made some positive strides as after missing only one games over the last two seasons, the Golden Eagles already have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against struggling North Texas and Appalachian St. while the third was against Alcorn St. of the FCS. They played well for most of the game last week against Louisiana Tech but suffered a blow when starting quarterback Nick Mullens went down with a foot injury and he is questionable for this week. UTEP is favored by less than what North Texas was favored by in the last road game for Southern Mississippi and that should not be the case. Here, we play on teams that have a +/- 5 ppg differential) going up against a team with a -10 ppg differential or worse, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UTEP Miners

We lost with Oklahoma St. last week as it fell behind 14-0 and could not recover. It was the second straight loss but they were outgained by only 12 yards but the problem was that they could not covert when needed as the Cowboys were just 3-20 on third and fourth down. Things won't get any easier this week but Oklahoma St. is getting a very favorable number and the setup is outstanding as this is a great bounceback opportunity. Kansas St. is coming off its second straight really big win as it took down Oklahoma two weeks ago and then shut out Texas last week. Overall, it was the Wildcats four straight victory and their fifth straight cover which in itself is a solid go against angle. With the Cowboys slumping and coming off two big win, it would not be shocking to see Kansas St. come in lethargic especially with a game at TCU next week. This series has been very tightly contested as each of the last seven meeting has been decided by fewer points than what the Cowboys are getting this week. Oklahoma St. falls into a fantastic contrarian situation as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 17 or more points. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (367) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It was expected that Vanderbilt was in for a tough season with all of the losses in incurred and that has proven true as the Commodores are 2-6 overall including 0-5 in the SEC. the two victories have come by a combined four points and one of those was by just a single point against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Vanderbilt has been outgained in every game this season and while it is on a solid 4-1 ATS run, all of those covers came as an underdog of at least 16.5 points. Now the Commodores go back to the role of favorites where they are 0-3 ATS on the season. What started out as a good season for old Dominion has gone south quickly as the Monarchs have lost four straight games and was unable to cover any of those games. Those games were against some solid competition however and despite playing a team from the SEC this week, they are not at a big disadvantage at all. While the defense has been horrible, Vanderbilt has an offense that is ranked third to last in the country so it cannot take advantage. And on the flip side, Old Dominion has a solid offense and should have no issues keeping it going here. The Monarchs fall into a solid situation where we play against home favorites team from a major division conference going up against a team from a second tier conference, off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (377) Old Dominion Monarchs

Miami Ohio may be out of bowl contention already, but it continues to play hard and expectations were low coming in so everything positive at this point is a great stepping stone for next season. The RedHawks were 0-12 last season but they already have two wins this season and have missed out on a couple more by narrow margins. They were outscored by nearly 24 ppg last season but this year, they are getting outscored by just 8.1 ppg which is a dramatic increase. Miami has won two straight at home and has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Western Michigan is having an even better turnaround season as it has gone from 1-11 last year to 5-3 through eight games in 2014. This includes three straight wins and the Broncos are tied for the longest ATS winning streak in the country with seven straight covers. That is certainly playing into this number and after playing their first five road games as an underdog, the Broncos are now favored on the road for the first time which is a red flag. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and its only underdog loss came by just a point and a half when it lost by eight points as a 6.5-point dog against Buffalo. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (344) Miami Ohio RedHawks

After three wins all of last season, Memphis already has surpassed that as it is 4-3 including 2-1 in the AAC which is just a game out of first place. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers however and they should not be favored by this much against a team with a pulse. They were favored by 22 at SMU last time out but the Mustangs are arguably the worst team in the FBS. This is taking nothing away from what head coach Justin Fuente has done this season but at 4-3, are the Tigers really this good according to the line? Tulsa is not having a good season and one more loss means its bowl hopes are gone and it will be sitting at home during the postseason for a second straight year. The chances of closing out with five straight wins is pretty much guaranteed not to happen but if we are going to see an all out effort at least one more time, this is the game with elimination on the line. The Golden Hurricane have lost their last six games while covering only one of those but this is the biggest number they have seen against a team not names Oklahoma. Three of the six losses have been within this number so they have not been completely dominated. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog coming off a bye week and in this case, Memphis has only five days to prepare for this one. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double digit road win and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (307) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints

Rushing advantages/disadvantages are a lot more prevalent in college football than in the NFL and those variances can often be the biggest deciding factor in a win/loss or cover/non-cover. That is definitely the case here as Georgia Southern will have no issues moving the ball on the ground. The Eagles have won five straight games and are sitting at 6-2 on the season with the only losses coming against NC State and Georgia Tech by a combined five points. They are in first place in the SBC with a 5-0 record and control their own destiny at this point. Troy is riding a two-game losing streak and its only win this season came against lowly New Mexico St. and this is certainly not the season head coach Larry Blakeney envisioned in his final one with the Trojans. The Eagles are averaging 402.1 ypg on 7.4 ypc both of which are the highest averaged in the country. Troy meanwhile is allowing an average of 244.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc which is near the bottom in the entre nation so stopping this attack will be next to impossible. Two situations are in our favor also. First, we play against road underdogs outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 230 or more ypg rushing against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Georgia Southern Eagles

Florida St. is the reigning National Champion and is sitting undefeated against this season at 7-0 following a thrilling, albeit fortunate win over Notre Dame two Saturday's ago. The Seminoles have been able to get the job done for the most part but they have not been nearly as dominating like they were last season and that is proven by their 1-6 record against the number. They have won both true road games but failed to cover against NC State and Syracuse and this is now the biggest road test of the season. Louisville is 6-2 and has outgained all but one opponent and that negative was just three yards against Virginia. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and while this will be their biggest home test, they are getting a substantial amount of points for a team that has a big edge in a significant category. That is rushing. The Seminoles are ranked 94th in rushing ypc and have really struggled against the better defenses they have faced in Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma St. Now comes Louisville which is ranked number one in the country in rushing defense and total defense for that matter. And schedule strength doe not come into play as both have played fairly similar schedules. I love the fact that Bobby Petrino has had extra time to prepare for this one as he should have his offense ready as well. Florida St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (306) Louisville Cardinals

Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins

With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints

The Steelers came through for us last Monday against Houston and there were definitely some good fortunes involved there. While it wasn't their best game overall, the win itself was huge and they can carry that into this week. This is the second of three straight home games for Pittsburgh and it needs to take advantage as the back end of the schedule is brutal. The Steelers are only a game out of first place in the AFC North and with first place Baltimore on deck, this game becomes very important. The hottest team in the AFC is Indianapolis as it has won five straight games while winning at the betting window in all of those games as well. If not for a blown penalty against the Eagles, Indianapolis could feasibly be undefeated against the number but nonetheless, the linesmakers have adjusted this number based on their current run. The Colts have dominated during this stretch, outgaining foes by an average of 212.4 ypg and while some won't step in front of that train, we will go against it here. Pittsburgh has a solid situation on its side also as we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. This is an excellent test for the Steelers and we see their first real complete game since winning at Carolina last month. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals are coming off their worst offensive game in a long time. They gained a mere 135 total yards which was the first time they have been held to fewer than 150 yards of total offense since 2009 in the final game of the regular season. This is now two straight games where Cincinnati has looked completely different than what it looked like at the start of the season and of course, this recent play is what bettors remember the most. On the flip side, Baltimore won its second straight game to move to 5-2 overall with four of those wins coming by 20 or more points. Because of those, the Ravens have a +89 scoring differential which is tops in the NFL. That along with the Bengals recent troubles has given us an exceptional number as the short-term memory of bettors is favoring the contrarian side. The Bengals fall into two outstanding situations. First, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Baltimore is looking for some payback no doubt however it could not be in a worse spot to try and accomplish that. The Bengals get back to their early season form. 10* (268) Cincinnati Bengals

We won with the Jets last Thursday as they played one of their best games of the season despite losing outright against the Patriots. While there is the letdown factor of playing a good game and not winning, the extended time off from last Thursday will help in dealing with that. And even with the effort last week, New York is desperate for a victory. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a last second victory and that definitely spells letdown following the one point victory over the Vikings. It came with a price though as the Bill lost their top two running backs and now will have to move on with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their lead backs. While the Bills have won twice on the road and could have won a third time at Houston, they are in a tough spot and have not fared well of late, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less while going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing a game at home. Additionally, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage of less than .250. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to finally snap their long losing streak with a comfortable win on Sunday. 10* (262) New York Jets

It has been a very disappointing season for South Carolina as it came into season ranked in the top ten in the Preseason AP Poll only to get blown out on opening night. It has not gotten much better since then as it has lost two other times and it now just 4-3 on the season after a less than thrilling win over Furman last week. The Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS as favorites but won and covered in their only game as an underdog which came against Georgia. The number was small but that cannot be said about this one as they are catching their biggest number since 2009 when they caught double-digits twice, and covered both. Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Mississippi St. The Tigers were able to rebound last season after losing early in the season but I think it is going to be more difficult this time around. Because of the down season South Carolina is having, the Tigers may not be fully focused here and may be more concerned about their trip to Mississippi next week. We are catching great value as this line was -7 when it was first released by the Golden Nugget over the summer and While South Carolina has regressed, I don't think it is that much. The Gamecocks are 96-2 ATS in 11 games under Steve Spurrier after a win by 28 or more points while going 16-6 ATS under Spurrier against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. 10* (117) South Carolina Gamecocks

We got burned badly last week with Oklahoma St. as TCU was able to bounce back after their loss against Baylor. We will back the Cowboys again this week as we are banking on them doing the bouncing back this week. They were pounded by 33 points, outgained by 418 total yards and they failed to score in double-digits for the first time since 2009. it was the second straight poor effort on the road for Oklahoma St. as it squeaked out a seven-point win over lowly Kansas the previous week but now it heads home where it is 4-0 on the season. The Cowboys have lost here only four times since 2010 and those losses were against Oklahoma (twice, Texas and Nebraska. Losing here to West Virginia is not an option, especially after losing in Morgantown last year so revenge comes into play. The Mountaineers pulled off the huge upset last week against Baylor to improve to 5-2 and crack the AP and USA Today top 25 polls. Those are obviously meaningless and that big win over the Bears provides a great letdown opportunity. Oklahoma St. is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 home games following a loss by 21 or more points while the Mountaineers fall into a negative situation as we play against road teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (192) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

Taking big underdogs in college football can be a stress maker if they get behind big and have to force a comeback but the one strategy that should always be in play when backing a large underdog is that it needs to be a team that can put a lot of points on the board, thus keeping the backdoor open at all times. UAB is one of those teams. We played against the Blazers last week and won simply because they were favored when they should not have been. Now they are a huge underdog and while they take a big step up in class, look at the second game of the season when they went to Starkville and lost to Mississippi St. by just 13 points while scoring 34. UAB has been outgained only once all season and that was by a mere three yards as they actually outgained the Bulldogs 548-516. This is also a play against Arkansas and as good as it looked against Alabama two weeks ago, it got stuck in neutral last week against Georgia even though it still won the yardage battle. Look for the Razorbacks to go on cruise control for this one as they are coming off three tough games and have Mississippi St. on deck. Here, we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) UAB Blazers

After winning just two games last season, South Florida has surpassed that win total through its first seven games and is coming off a huge confidence boosting victory last week. Trailing Tulsa 27-7 at halftime, the Bulls outscored the Golden Hurricane 31-3 in the second half to produce the biggest come-from-behind victory in school history. Those 31 points were more points scored than any of the previous five complete games and that is big to carry over here. Going back, the Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The Bearcats are coming off a win over horrid SMU to improve to 3-3. It was a big win as it snapped a three-game skid, all by blowouts, and while it can bring some confidence back, this Cincinnati team is not very good. There is something to be said about coaches getting teams prepared in different situations and one of those is playing on the road. It is safe to say that Bulls head coach Willie Taggart knows how to do it as since his days at Western Kentucky, his teams are an incredible 23-3 ATS on the road. And the home field edge is not great for Cincinnati as the Bearcats are playing all their 2014 home games at Paul Brown Stadium while Nippert Stadium is undergoing an $86-million renovation and expansion project. Cincinnati is playing with revenge from lost at USF last year but this is too many points to be laying and the Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (111) South Florida Bulls

The Broncos are coming off one of their best games of the season to make it three straight wins heading into this big AFC West showdown with San Diego. Denver is showing it is still the team to beat and while it sits stop my power rakings, I don't like the spot or the matchup it is involved in. San Diego meanwhile is coming off its second loss of the season as it fell at home by a field goal to the Chiefs. That coupled with the Broncos win gives us the dichotomous results angle which tells us to go opposite of the most recent occurrences. We can take it a step further by going against the streaks of the Broncos three straight cover wins and the Chargers two straight cover losses. The Chargers match up very well with Denver and a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. Last season, the Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense and they kept the other two games close as well. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In three games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. We won against San Diego last week but are backing them here expecting a big bounce back and in addition, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog. 10* (103) San Diego Chargers

Thursday nights in Blacksburg aren't what they used to be when Virginia Tech was a perennial top ten team but this is still a very tough place to play and Miami will be challenged. The Hurricanes should be able to meet that challenge however as they are the better team right now and it isn't really that close. The Hurricanes are coming off a bye week following a demolition of Cincinnati in their most recent game and they match up just as good here. The Hokies are struggling on both sides of the ball. Coming off a game in which it rushed for just 26 yards on 22 carries last Thursday against Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech is shuffling its starting offensive line and that is never a good thing. On the other side, ACC Preseason 1st Team defensive tackle Luther Maddy needs surgery on his injured knee and will miss the remainder of the season, and linebacker Chase Williams, the team's leading tackler, will miss the game after suffering a knee injury at Pittsburgh. The latter is bad news for Virginia Tech that will try and stop Duke Johnson who has 787 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.2 ypc. The Hokies were fortunate last year to miss Johnson, who was out the final five games with a broken ankle but they are not as lucky this season. Virginia Tech has been great in this spot as a home underdog over the years but this is a different Virginia Tech team so those past streaks do not mean much in this one. The Hurricanes are part of a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Miami Hurricanes

Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss against division rival Cleveland and while they have regressed the last couple years, I expect a big bounceback on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now 3-3 but is just a game and a half behind the Bengals in the AFC North so there is plenty of room to make a move. This is the first of three straight home games for the Steelers and the other two going to be tough ones against the Colts and Ravens so they know they have to take care of business here. Houston put up a solid effort against Indianapolis last Thursday but fell short and it also fell to 3-3 on the season. That record can be considered a mirage however as the Texans have been outgained in all six of their games this season, the last two coming by 126 yards and 124 yards. The lone road win this season came at winless Oakland and going back to last season, they are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. The Steelers have thrived in these spots as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites of three points or more coming off a double-digit loss when facing an opponent also off a loss. They have won 15 straight Monday night home games including seven straight wins at Heinz Field since it opened, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost two of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 30 or more points. 10* (478) Pittsburgh Steelers

We played against the Chargers last week as they went to Oakland laying a big number and barely came back home with the victory. Conventional thinking would be to back San Diego this week coming off a poor effort but we are anything but conventional and we will be fading the Chargers again in their second of three straight divisional games. The third one comes next week in Denver on Thursday so there could definitely be a case of peeking ahead to that one. Additionally, San Diego was in a very hard fought, physical game last week in Oakland while the Chiefs are coming off their bye week which happened to follow a loss at San Francisco prior to that. That put a halt to their two-game winning streak and sitting at 2-3, this is a very pivotal game in order to keep pace within the division. Kansas City failed to win following its bye week a season ago but the situation was different as it went in 9-0 and was playing at Denver. That was just the second loss in 18 games for head coach Andy Reid coming off a two-week break. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 95-52 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs

The Jaguars came oh so close to their first win of the season last week as they fought Tennessee to the end only to lose by two points. The good news for Jacksonville backers is that it got its first cover of the season which is a move in the right direction in trying to attain its first outright victory. While the Jaguars were unable to cover their first two home games, they are getting the same number this week as they were in those first two games but are the Browns really that good to be laying this type of number? I don't think so. Cleveland is coming off a big win over the Steelers but it won the yardage battle by only nine total yards so the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Browns are playing good but they have not been favored by this much on the road since they came back to Cleveland back in 1999, a span of 122 games. So the fact the Browns are being asked to lay this number coming off a big divisional win is a little too much. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (458) Jacksonville Jaguars

It is a well known fact that New Orleans struggles on the road as it has lost all three games on the road this season but the situation is different this week. The Saints were favored in three of those road games and now they are getting points in Detroit which is certainly more than fair as linesmakers are making the proper adjustment. New Orleans is in a very good spot though as it matches up well against the Lions and the indoor atmosphere certainly will not hurt. Detroit won at Minnesota last week to improve to 4-2 on the season ad remain in a first place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North. While the defense has been playing at a very high level, the offense is not doing much and it is no coincidence. The big edge here for New Orleans is in fact its defense as it will be facing a horrendous offensive line that Detroit possesses. The Saints have struggled on defense but they could be in store for a big turnaround game. Making matters worse for the Lions is the fact that they are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games against team allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints

San Diego St. is 3-3 on the season and has yet to win consecutive games but this a great spot to finally begin a winning streak. The Aztecs have been a great second half team the last two years as they started 3-3 in both 2012 and 2013 and went on to go 10-2 after the midway point in those season and we can expect more of the same this season. A big reason is the fact they returned only 10 starters from last season so it has taken some time for the chemistry to come around and they are coming off their most dominating game of the season, outgaining New Mexico by 204 total yards. Hawaii is also coming off a win and its most dominating game of the season, outgaining Wyoming by 191 total yards. But that was at home. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 15 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered seven of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and I feel this spread is way too low as well. The Warriors have put up only 26 points in their two road games combined while San Diego St. is allowing just 12 ppg at home. San Diego St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* (406) San Diego St. Aztecs

We played against Northern Illinois last week and it paid off as the Huskies lost outright against Central Michigan as more than a touchdown underdog. It was mentioned that they are not the same team as in years past and continue to struggle as the offense has been unable to generate points but I think that finally changes here. Because of the struggles, we get to buy Northern Illinois low and feel the spot is ideal this week. Miami is coming off a loss at Akron last week which came after its first win of the season against Massachusetts prior to that. That victory actually snapped a 21-game losing streak so while it was big to end the enormous slide, clearly little momentum was gained from it. Northern Illinois has lost consecutive regular season games only once since 2010, going 4-1 following a defeat and the one time it did lose a back-to-back, the second came against Wisconsin. Miami s 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a road cover where it lost as an underdog and we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Northern Illinois Huskies

Here is another situation, like Thursday, where I think the wrong team is favored and it is largely based on recent results which is what most gamblers usually only remember. Middle Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss against Marshall which has been the case for most teams playing the Thundering Herd and that snapped its two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, UAB defeated North Texas by 35 points but was actually outgained by the Mean Green. The Blazers took advantage of five turnovers, three of which were directly returned for touchdowns. That victory, along with the Middle Tennessee loss to Marshall, is what is driving this line and it is a rarity for UAB to be favored on the road as it has happened only six times the last eight years. Coming back home is big for the Blue Raiders as they are 3-0 here this season and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Additionally, Middle Tennessee has won seven of its last nine games after a loss while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. On the other side, UAB is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Middle Tennessee has a chance to improve to 4-1 in the conference and can ill afford a loss in a winnable game to keep bowl hopes alive. 10* (366) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

We made a bad call on Texas A&M last week as we should have stuck to our guns from the previous week after saying the Aggies have not defeated any team of note with arguably the best win coming against Arkansas. The season is starting to slip away already and it can only get worse here as the situation could not be worse for Texas A&M heading into a hornets nest. Alabama is not the same Alabama we are accustomed to, at least that is what we are hearing from the talking heads but I have to disagree with that assessment. The Crimson Tide have struggled away from home as it was in a tight battle against West Virginia in the Georgia Dome, lost at Mississippi and then won at Arkansas by just one point. They have dominated at home however, winning by a combined 135-33 and while this game will be the biggest test, I expect the Tide to pass with flying colors as a return home is just what they need. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 450 or more ypg in three straight games. Alabama meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in its last eight SEC games against teams off a double-digit loss. 10* (370) Alabama Crimson Tide

Rankings are based on opinions from some people who should not even be giving opinions. That is the case here for Utah and taking nothing away from the Utes and their 4-1 record, but they should not be ranked. One win came against Idaho St. of the FCS, another case against Fresno St. which is having a very disappointing season. The other two victories would have been considered marquee victories early in the season but Michigan and UCLA have been majors busts this season. The Utes have been outgained the last three games and that is a major concern. Oregon St. comes in with an identical 4-1 record with the lone loss coming at USC in blowout fashion. While the Beavers schedule has been nothing special either, it needs to be noted that they have won the yardage battle in their four victories, and by a lot. Oregon St. is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a conference win by seven points or less while going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with a line between +3 and -3 coming off a bye. Additionally, we play against road favorites that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers

The Jets have to cover at some point and this looks like the best spot for it to happen. We got puked on last week when Geno Smith threw a pick six in the waning seconds to blow the cover for us against Denver and while it has been a rough season for New York with five straight losses, this is a game they will be sky high for. The Patriots were thought to be done a few short weeks ago after getting blown out by Kansas City but now they are once again being praised as being back. I don't think they were ever gone but I also do not think they are as good as some do think and they should not be laying this many points to a division rival, no matter the record differentials. While it may not seem like it, the Jets defense is still pretty good as they are ranked sixth overall but has been hurt by getting pinned deep in their own end of the field several times. The Jets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 2-9 ATS since 2012 as a favorite of 8 or more points during the regular season. 10* (303) New York Jets

Louisiana was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference by most and sitting at 1-0, it is certainly in the mix. The Cajuns will try to keep pace with Georgia Southern which is already off to a 4-0 start and this could be the statement game they need. They have yet to cover a game against an FBS opponent, most recently sneaking by Georgia St. by three points as a 16-point favorite. Back-to-back blowout losses on the road against Mississippi and Boise St. preceded that which is a big reason they are underdogs in this spot. Texas St. also comes in at 1-0 in the conference following its win over Idaho in its last game. The Vandals are arguably the worst team in the FBS and are 0-6 yet the Bobcats had a tough time, winning by just five points and getting outgained by 57 yards. They have actually been outgained by all four FBS opponents so despite the 2-2 record, things seem to be skewed. Louisiana is the most experienced team in the conference on both sides of the ball and that will show tonight. The Cajuns are is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Many predicted San Diego to be a sleeper team in the NFL this season and so far it is living up to expectations. If for not blowing an 11-point lead in Arizona opening weekend, the Chargers would be 5-0 right now and the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. The one thing they are undefeated at is their record against the number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and they are the only team that has yet to fail on a cover this year. San Diego cruised to a win over the Jets last Sunday and it could not have looked better as it outgained New York 439-151 and that makes this the perfect time to go against the Chargers especially with the Chiefs on deck. Oakland had a week off which came at a perfect time and it also will be breaking in a new coach after Dennis Allen was hired and replace by interim coach Tony Soprano. The Raiders got thumped in London in their last game but that works in their favor here as in the eight previous games played across the pond, there have been five teams that lost by more than a touchdown prior to this year and all five of those teams covered their next game with four winning outright and the other resulting in the Rams/49ers tie back in 2012. this is just the second home game of the season for Oakland and despite losing its first against Houston, it outgained the Texans by 37 total yards. Great spot here for the Raiders. 10* (270) Oakland Raiders

As fast as we jumped on the Patriots last week following their horrible performance at Kansas City two weeks ago, we will jump off them just as fast this week following their great performance this past Sunday night against the Bengals. Everyone had them written off but now it seems everyone has jumped back on them and this line is a reaction to that. While I don't think they were as bad as they looked in Kansas City, I don't think they are as good as they looked last week and the Bengals just did not show up. Now New England goes into the rare situation of going from a home underdog to a road favorite within the span of a week and that plays into a great situation explained at the end. The Bills are getting no credit here but coming off a come-from-behind win at Detroit has this team brimming with confidence as it tries to knock off its division rival for the first time since 2011, a span of five straight losses. The Bills could feasibly be 4-1 if not for giving a game away at Houston and they are coming in here with a chip on their should due to the lack of respect. Here we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against teams coming off a win. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1980. The Patriots simply cannot be trusted on the road anymore as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 highway games. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills

We made a horrible call on the Jets last week in San Diego as they were humiliated 31-0. the mustered a mere 151 yards of total offense and were outgained by 288 yards in the process. New York is now 1-4 on the season and it has yet to cover a game so we knew this line would be big coming in but it has now gotten out of control. While Denver is considered the best team in the AFC, San Diego is no longer far behind which makes this line completely inaccurate. If this game were being played in Denver, the Broncos would be roughly a 16-point favorite and last week the Chargers were favored by seven points which states that Denver is nine points better than San Diego? I don't think so. This line is purely an overreaction to last week and the short-term memory that gamblers have. The Broncos are coming off a near perfect performance against Arizona last week and that is also being taken into consideration with this number. That was a big bounce back game for Denver which was coming off a loss in Seattle preceding its bye so you knew they were going to come out strong. With home games against San Francisco and San Diego on deck, being fully focused here is very unlikely. Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win while New York 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points. 10* (252) New York Jets

We played against Texas A&M last week as it suffered its first loss of the season at Mississippi St. that was a tough spot for the Aggies as it was their first true test of the season and while they failed, I expect them to bounce back this week. A big factor here is the timing of this game as it is a night start at College Station which makes for an even bigger atmosphere. Typically with a big game on deck, we would not go this route but even with a game at Alabama next Saturday, Texas A&M knows it needs to bounce back here. Speaking of Alabama, the Rebels are coming off a huge upset of the Crimson Tide last Saturday to move to 5-0 on the season. They jumped all the way from 11th in the nation into a tie for 3rd with Mississippi St. in the AP Poll and that is a pretty lofty move. That isn't saying it wasn't well deserved because of the upset but I don't think this team is a top five team at the time. Add to the fact the letdown factor and Mississippi should be in ripe shape for its first loss. The Aggies are playing their first true hole game since September 13th which only adds to the edge they will have here. Texas A&M will be ready and after winning the last two meetings the last two years in Mississippi by three points each, the Aggies get the job done at home is easier fashion by what many think will be an upset but that is not the case. 10* (188) Texas A&M Aggies

We snuck out a win with Michigan last week as it stayed within the number but still suffered its third straight loss to fall to 2-4 on the season. The time has come where the Wolverines are in a true must win scenario or the season will be ready to spiral downhill quickly as they are on the cusp on that right now. I like the fact they have lost two straight home games as it should certainly have them stoked to get a win plus it gives us some excellent value with the line. They will also be out for revenge from last year's overtime loss almost a year ago to the day which was the fourth straight loss in this series. Penn St. was off last week as it tried to regroup from its 23-point loss at home against Northwestern two weeks ago and the bye definitely came art the right time I just don't know how much it cam help. This is the first road game in a month for the Nittany Lions and while they did win at Rutgers where Michigan just lost, it was far from dominating as it was a game that could have gone either way. Michigan has rival Michigan St. on deck but with everything at stake, that matters little especially considering the Wolverines will be entering their first bye week of the season. The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record and they add to that with a possible season saving win on Saturday. 10* (194) Michigan Wolverines

The Chippewas picked up a big win last time out as they crushed Ball St. by 18 points and while that margin of victory may not seem huge, they fact they outgained the Bobcats by 280 total yards was dominating. It was the second game that running back Thomas Rawls and wide receiver Titus Davis were back in the lineup and it made a huge difference as the two accounted for 426 of their 467 total yards. I expect them to use that game as a momentum boost to try and snap their two-game losing streak against the Huskies. This line may seem low to some for Northern Illinois considering it was favored by 26 points last week against Kent St. and last season, it was favored by 14.5 points at Central Michigan but this line is too big in my opinion. This is not the same Huskies team we are used to as the loss of quarterback Jordan Lynch is still being felt. The offense has not been clicking like it used to and scoring only 17 points last week against the Golden Flashes is a big concern. After defeating Presbyterian out of the FCS, the Huskies have struggled in all of their other games including a win against UNLV that needed a late touchdown to pull away. They are outgaining FBS opponent by just 55 yards total on the season. Momentum is not on their side as the Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chippewas are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (177) Central Michigan Chippewas

It has been a very rough stretch for North Carolina as it has lost its last three games by a combined 61 points and it has not been kind to its backers as it has yet to cover a game this season. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the number counting their game against Liberty of the FCS and they definitely are not getting much support here. The opportunity here though sets up very well for a bounceback even though they are facing their toughest opponent of the season. Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over Stanford as it scored the game winning touchdown with just one minute left to move to 5-0, moving it into 6th place in the most recent AP Poll. If that isn't a spot for a letdown, nothing is and making matters even tougher this week is that the Irish travel to top ranked Florida St. next week so they are in a letdown/lookahead scenario this week. The defense has been outstanding as Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 17 points but the Tar Heel have the ability to score a lot and this could be the one game that Notre Dame won't be 100 percent vested. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (175) North Carolina Tar Heels

The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos

We do not typically lay points on the road in the NFL but we are making the exception here as we are catching a line that is very favorable. The Colts enter Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-2 and they can put some ground between them and the rest of the division with a victory tonight. The two losses came against Philadelphia and Denver, both of which have just one loss and they actually ended up outgaining the Broncos. That is part of a big reasoning for playing Indianapolis here. It has outgained four of its five opponents with the last three coming by 185, 237 and 135 yards and overall, the average margin is +97.4 ypg. In contrast, the Texans have not outgained a single opponent this season and they have been outgained by an average of 47.6 ypg which isn't a huge amount but the fact they have not been on the plus side in the stats is a huge concern. The schedules have not been the reasoning either as Houston has played the 29th ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 30th ranked slate. The difference has been turnovers for the Texans as they have 12 takeaways and their turnover percentage is ranked third in the NFL. After committing five turnovers in the first four games, the Colts had four last week so that can be chalked up as an anomaly. We will take our chances with the much better quarterback and the undoubtedly better 3-2 team here. 10* (101) Indianapolis Colts

BYU got knocked off last Friday for the first time this season as it lost to Utah St. as a 21-point favorite. The Cougars have now dropped three straight games against the number, all as double-digit favorites but they are in a completely different role this Thursday. Speaking of losing, BYU has to deal with losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the season after he suffered a broken leg against the Aggies and it was all downhill from there as replacement Christian Stewart was horrible. Coming in non-prepared like that is tough for any quarterback but even though this week is a short week, Stewart at least will have taken reps with the first team so the adjustment will be a lot better now. Central Florida won last Thursday over Houston as it forced a late turnover to pull out the win and improve to 2-2 on the season. Now the Knights are sandwiched in-between two conference games and while playing under the Thursday night lights is big, they are not the better team here, even with Hill out. The quarterback situation in Central Florida is just as bas if not worse so the Knights are being forced to run which is the strength of the Cougars defense. We are getting a huge line edge here also as the loss of hill has adjusted this line by over 10 points which is simply too much. The Cougars are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as regular season underdogs while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The value is too hard to pass up here. 10* (103) BYU Cougars

After last night's game that cruised over the total, primetime games in the NFL are on a 10-0 run going back to the Bears/49ers Sunday night game on September 14th. In those games, there has been an average of 55.8 ppg scored and the public is cleaning up. Linesmakers have been adjusting these totals to try and combat all of the over action coming in but it has yet to make a difference. We are seeing it here as well as this number is higher than it should be based on those past results and what the public is thinking here. Washington has gone over in three straight games with the most recent one coming 10 days ago in a primetime game for everyone to see. According to the talking heads on television, Seattle no longer has a defense that is dominant as it once was. The Seahawks are three games into the season and have faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and taking nothing away from Kirk Cousins but he is not in that category. Seattle is still ranked sixth in total defense in the league and should be able to slow Washington down enough. The Redskins have allowed 37 and 45 points the last two games so that in itself is a trigger for over backers but last week was certainly a fluke no thanks to six turnovers while the week before, the Redskins were killed by penalties and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ninth in the NFL in total defense through four games and that will surprise a lot of people. The Under is 7-2 in the Seahawks last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (477) Seattle Seahawks/(478) Washington Redskins

While I think the Seattle defense is not getting the credit it deserves based on what the media is blurting out, the same can be said for the Redskins defense. While they have allowed 82 points the last two weeks, the defense is not to blame on all of that. Six turnovers against the Giants last week led to 31 points and the four touchdowns were all on short fields including two from 24 and 22 yards. The Giants had the ball for close to 15 minutes more than the Redskins which led to more yards and the wearing out the Washington defense. Against the Eagles, they allowed just 379 yards but penalties and special teams hurt them there. They don't have to play a perfect game to succeed here but they just have to be better in other areas to help the defense. Kirk Cousins had a dreadful game last week, posting a 53.0 passer rating which came after putting up rating of 109.4 and 103.4 his first two games. Getting through the Seahawks defense will not be easy as it has en elite secondary so we should see more short passes and running from Washington which can shorten the game, keep Seattle off the field on offense and that benefits the underdog. The Redskins fall into a spectacular situation where we play on home underdogs of three points or more that are coming off a loss of 24 or more points. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1980. Additionally, Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. While the public is all over the over yet again, it is also all over Seattle yet we have seen this line drop so the reverse line movement is on our side. 10* (478) Washington Redskins

Anyone who watches ESPN or follows some of the other media outlets on Twitter has been told over and over again that the Patriots are done and Tom Brady is washed up. Clearly, things are not right in New England as it is now 2-2 following its shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs last Monday night. Brady is having his worst season statistically as he is still trying to work with some new personnel but there is no chance we will see him down for very long. New England opened as the favorite here and after everyone saw what happened Monday, it is now a home underdog for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati comes in at 3-0 and fresh off its bye week. The Bengals opened the season on the road at Baltimore but this is the first time they have had to travel since then. Being favored here is clearly an overadjustment and we can prove that based on their last game. Being a point favorite here would make them a seven-point favorite at home which is a half-point higher than what they were favored b y over the Titans in their last game. The Titans a half-point better than New England? I think not. Additionally, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New England Patriots

This is the classic contrarian play in going against spread records as well as teams going in the opposite direction. The Jets opened the season with a win over the Raiders, which isn't saying much, but they have now lost three straight games to fall to 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS. Overall, New York is outgaining opponents by an average of 74.7 ypg but the difference between wins and losses has been turnovers where it is -6 in turnover margin. After dropping its opening game in Arizona, San Diego has won three straight games and overall the Chargers are 4-0 against the number which has inflated this line a significant amount. They have been the opposite of New York when it comes to turnovers as the Chargers are +5 in turnover margin and they have not turned it over in three straight games. While the Jets have a significant edge in yardage margin, San Diego is just +26.3 ypg. Adding all of this up proves how much turnovers can affect a team, whether good or bad, and how much it can influence records and with that, public perception. The Jets have a positive situation on their side based on turnovers as we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the point differential being +2 ppg favoring the play on team. 10* (473) New York Jets

We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans

New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints

We played against Boise St. last Saturday and it worked out for us as the Broncos lost at Air Force as big favorites. The main reason they lost was that they committed seven turnovers and they were unable to work back from a 28-0 deficit. Boise St. outgained the Falcons 467-335 so while it was the better team on the day, it was not the better team on the scoreboard. All that does is set the Broncos up this week for one of our "misleading public reversals" and it gets even better. Nevada won last week at San Jose St. 21-10 but it was on the wrong side of the yardages as it was outgained by 190 total yards. The Wolf Pack were fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This adds to the Boise St. reversal and the two misleading scores help us immensely this week as we are catching a great number and one that is smaller than it should be. Looking at the history of this series and you will see that Nevada has covered the last five meetings but Boise St. won four of those and the spread wins were based on big lines, not like the one we have here. Boise St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (415) Boise St. Broncos

After a perfect 3-0 start, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games against Iowa and Akron and both of those were as favorites. Losing to Iowa was a downer as the Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 total yards but were unable to hold onto a 10-point lead. Last week's loss to the Zips was inexcusable and it was clear that Pittsburgh did not come to play after the previous loss but the defeat last week can now serve as a wake up call. A loss this week could be devastating and head coach Paul Chryst could have a tough time not losing his team. The Panthers are on a bye so there are now no excuses. Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division but it is off to a surprising 3-2 start which is already one more win than all of last season. Even the losses weren't bad as the Cavaliers fell to UCLA and BYU by eight points each and going back to last season, they have now covered seven straight games. What that does is cause this line to be overadjusted which is certainly the case here as Virginia is a favorite against a power conference team for the first time since being favored by two points over Duke last season. Virginia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single digit favorite while Pittsburgh falls into one of the best college situations around as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (331) Pittsburgh Panthers