Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-14 | Michigan +3 v. Rutgers | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan been in the news a lot this week but for all of the wrong reasons. Whether it was because of mishandling of injuries or demonstrations to fire the athletic director or talk about the head coach needing to be let go, it is not very pleasant in Ann Arbor right now. This is where players need to recognize what is going on and play like they should play and not like the way they did last week in a home loss against Minnesota. Hitting the road after a three-game homestand is just what this team needs right now so the situation is in the Wolverines favor. They have dropped four straight against the number since destroying Appalachian St. opening week and that is putting the majority on the other side. Rutgers is 4-1 to start the season but it does not own a marquee victory as its toughest opponent was Penn St. and that resulted in the lone defeat. The Scarlet Knights have been outgained in three of five games this season including one against Howard from the FCS. Michigan meanwhile has outgained four of five opponents so despite the records, it can be argued Michigan is still the much better team and that is hard to disagree with. While Hoke is getting a lot of grief, and rightfully so, he has been great in getting his teams to bounce back off poor performances. The Wolverines managed a mere 171 yards of offense against Minnesota last week and in his career, Hoke is 7-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game and 14-2 ATS in 16 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10* (399) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-04-14 | Navy -4 v. Air Force | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 60 m | Show |
Navy is off to a disappointing 2-3 start following consecutive losses the last two Saturday's. Both of those came at home no less where they are 0-2 but the Midshipmen have won both of their road games while outgaining both opponents in doing so. They were favored then and they are favored again here for good reason and they will come in hungry and look to avoid matching their loss total from all of last season. We won with Air Force last week as it was aided by seven Boise St. turnovers. Had that not occurred, chances are the Falcons would not have won outright but I feel that puts them in a tough spot here against a team they have had trouble with over the years. This has been a tightly contested series over the last few years but Navy has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Falcons have already surpassed their win total from last season but last week can be considered a fluke and a won over Nicholls St. was far from impressive. In the other victory over Georgia Southern, Air Force was outgained there also and the good fortunes cannot last all season. Navy is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games against teams allowing 3.25 or fewer ypc so it knows how to adjust. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (373) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-03-14 | Louisville -1.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
Louisville is coming off a less than stellar effort last week against Wake Forest. Or was it? The Cardinal won by only 10 points and were actually trailing in the fourth quarter but a lot of that can be attributed to three lost fumbles, two short made field goals and two missed field goals. They did not allow an offensive touchdown as the only time Wake Forest got into the endzone was because of a fumble recovery. Louisville allowed only 10 first downs and 100 total yards of offense and overall it is ranked third in total defense (225.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (14 ppg). I don't see that changing here against a Syracuse offense that is struggling to score. We were on the Orange last week and it was not a good call as they were able to keep it as close as they did thanks to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. Syracuse put up a decent 429 total yards but could muster only 15 points and six of those came on an interception return for a touchdown. It scored 40 points at Central Michigan but we can now call that an anomaly because the Orange have scored only 52 points in regulation in their other three games combined. Overall Syracuse is 48th in total offense but just 85th in scoring offense so there is definitely a disconnect somewhere and facing the toughest defense to date won't help matters. Louisville quarterback Will Gardner is questionable but that is not a concern at all. The Cardinals have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-02-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -23 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
At first glace, grabbing over three touchdowns with a 4-0 Arizona team seems like a good take but I don't think that will be nearly enough in this spot for the Wildcats. Arizona was off last week following its improbable comeback against California where it trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter and eventually won on a last second 47-yard touchdown pass. While it has had time to recover from that jubilation, it is coming into a tough environment for this Thursday night clash. The Wildcats won their lone road game but that came by only three points at Texas-San Antonio and this is a whole different animal. Oregon meanwhile is also coming off a bye following a closer than expected win at Washington St. two weeks ago as it won by just a touchdown as a 23-point chalk. Now the Ducks are back home where they have won 10 straight games and playing with a lot of added motivation. That comes from the 42-16 drubbing they took from Arizona is Tucson last season which closed the door on an outside shot at the National Championship. Now it is revenge time and Oregon will not let off the gas as it will want nothing more than to return the favor. The Ducks have numerous situations in their favor with the strongest being to play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Oregon is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games while Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg. 10* (308) Oregon Ducks |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +12 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 29 m | Show |
We played against Notre Dame and won when it could cover against Purdue and once again, it comes in with an inflated number. The Irish are off to a 3-0 start and have looked good in doing so but not as good as you may think. Wins over Rice and Purdue are far from good wins as both programs are rebuilding while Michigan is certainly not the same team we thought they would be sitting at 2-2 following an upset loss against Utah last week. Now the Irish hit the highway again for the second straight game on a neutral field and not to mention it has a revenge game at home against Stanford next week. Both the offense and defense have been solid but playing the easy schedule thus far has skewed those averages. The score shows a 14-point loss against Maryland last week but the game was a different story as Syracuse outgained the Terrapins by 220 total yards. The Orange were done in by two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 88 yards for a touchdown as well as a 90-yard touchdown pass by Maryland in the first quarter. Plays like that cannot be allowed in order to win and Syracuse found that out the hard way. Now it goes down to New Jersey where its fan base travels very well in hopes of pulling off the upset. They have 15 starters back form last year's bowl winning season and after the near debacle against Villanova, the Orange have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (166) Syracuse Orange |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 60 m | Show |
We lost a tough one last week in going against Duke and while the final score of 47-13 may not sound like that is the case, the game was not as bad as that outcome is. Tulane was outgained by only 46 total yards but five turnovers and 13 penalties killed the Green Wave and it was arguably the most deceiving final score of the weekend. 21 of Duke's points came off turnovers including two interception returns for scores. While the Blue Devils are 4-0, this is a team I am not sold on yet and a lot of that has to do with playing the 190th ranked schedule in the country. A road win at Troy has been the only highway trip and things will be a lot tougher here. Miami lost at Nebraska last week to fall to 2-2 with the other loss coming at Louisville so the Hurricanes have played in some tough venues. Now they are back home where they have won 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for some serious revenge following last year's 18-point beatdown in Durham. Miami is a different team now as it is a lot healthier than it was during that trip to Duke including having Duke Johnson back at running back. Look for him to have a monster game against the nation's 92nd ranked rushing defense which is actually worse than that based on the cupcake schedule. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting more comfortable and he is actually 30th in the nation in passing efficiency. Duke has won and covered six straight road games going back to the start of last season and because of the public love, we are catching a smaller than anticipated number which we take advantage of. 10* (180) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-27-14 | Boise State v. Air Force +13 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show |
Since opening the season with a loss against Mississippi, Boise St. has rolled to three straight wins and covers but let's face it, the opposition has been pretty bad. The Broncos had easy home wins over Colorado St. and UL-Lafayette but despite a 17-point win over Connecticut on the road, they outgained the Huskies by just two total yards. It comes as no secret that Boise St. is a better home team than road team and laying this type of number has been a problem as Boise St. is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by double-digits against an opponent that is coming off a win. Air Force defeated Georgia St. two weeks ago and while that victory isn't saying much, a win is a win and playing with two weeks to prepare is even bigger. This is the first home game for Air Force since opening the season against Nicholls St. back in August so the Falcons were will extra pumped here against a quality foe. They are also playing with revenge following last season's 22-point loss at Boise and they bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS record coming off a bye week when getting fewer than 19 points. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (198) Air Force Falcons |
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09-27-14 | Stanford -7.5 v. Washington | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Stanford is off a bye last week which followed its easy win over Army at home the previous week. The Cardinal now hit the road for the first time this season and while that normally could be as cause for concern, the situation at hand totally negates that. Prior to Army, the Cardinal lost against USC and it can ill afford to start Pac 12 play at 0-2 especially with the challenges that lie ahead in the second half of the season. While we are not overly keen about laying more than a touchdown on the road, Stanford will show that it is far superior and expose the Huskies. Washington has not been very impressive this season as it opened with a one point win at Hawaii and then defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only seven points. The Huskies took care of Illinois by 25 points but last week fell behind against Georgia St. 14-0 before having to rally back for the win. They lost a ton from its offense last season and while the point totals have been big, this will be by far the best defense it has seen this season. Stanford is ranked first in the country in total defense and that is more impressive knowing it help the potent Trojans in check. Stanford knows the task here will not be easy as it defeated Washington by only three points last year and lost here in Seattle back in 2012 by four points. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or fewer ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-27-14 | Texas -13.5 v. Kansas | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 78 h 29 m | Show |
Texas is coming off a much needed bye week as after opening the season with a blowout win over North Texas, it has lost two straight games against BYU and UCLA. Those teams remain undefeated so while losses are bad, those aren't necessarily bad losses and the Longhorns take a big step down in class here. The Longhorns have back-to-back games against Baylor and Oklahoma immediately after this game and while that could normally trigger a lookahead, that won't happen here with Charlie Strong at the helm as his teams have gone 12-3 ATS in 15 games following a loss and the last thing they want is a three-game losing streak heading into the game against the Bears. Kansas is 2-1 for the second straight season but it went on to lose eight of its last nine games. The Jayhawks have defeated SE Missouri St. and Central Michigan, not exactly the best of opposition and they were both very unimpressive victories. Kansas has lost its Big 12 opener each of the last four years with three of the losses coming by 48, 40 and 38 points and a similar result here would not be surprising. The quarterback play has been atrocious from Montell Cozart sand now her will be facing a tough defense that has eight starters back from last season and is now healthy. On the other side, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has directed the offense the last two games, completing 44 of 65 passes for 377 yards. His completion percentage (67.7) ranks No. 19 in the nation and he has committed just one turnover in his two starts. Texas has dominated this series as the Longhorns have won all 11 matchups in Big 12 play and have outscored Kansas by an average of 42.8-14.4 points per game in that stretch. 10* (175) Texas Longhorns |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins |
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09-25-14 | Appalachian State +19 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Because of Appalachian St.'s loss to Southern Mississippi, we are getting some value with the Mountaineers. They rallied from a 14-0 deficit to nearly tie the game but missed the extra point because of a block in the final seconds to lose by one point. Appalachian St. actually outgained the Golden Eagles 455-329 but costly turnovers, three missed field goals sand penalties did it in. Five of eight drives that went into Southern Mississippi territory resulted in no points. Georgia Southern meanwhile is coming off a rout against South Alabama to square its record at 2-2. The Eagles have covered all four games and are now 8-0 against the spread since 2010 but are now favored against an FBS opponent by more than one point for the first time every and it is over two touchdowns no less. This team could be 4-0 overall as losses against NC State and Georgia Tech came by a combined five points so this is no doubt a very good team but the Eagles are in unchartered territory with this line and with it being a rival game that goes back to the SoCon days, it adds more for the underdog. While Georgia Southern gets the accolades for being a great rushing team, the Mountaineers are right there. Heading into conference play, Appalachian St. ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing with 212.3 ypg. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Mountaineers are 20-2 when they run the ball 40 or more times and 11-19 when they run the ball less than 40 times. Look for a much closer than expected game. 10* (103) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 58 m | Show |
Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants |
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09-20-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -106 | 91 h 46 m | Show |
After a 2-0 start, Wyoming ran into the buzzsaw of Oregon last week and fell to the Ducks by 34 points. In actuality, it was not that bad of a loss as the Cowboys were outgained by only 117 total yards and were down by only six points late in the second quarter before Oregon was able to pull away. Wyoming put up 439 total yards of offense against a very strong and underrated Ducks defense so they have to be happy coming back home following their best output of the season. This is a brand new system that new head coach Craig Bohl has brought in so it would take some time and is clicking around the right time. Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Tulsa in a surprising blowout. To their credit, the Owls opened the season with games against Nebraska and Alabama so getting blown out in those games was nothing to be ashamed of. I don't like the situation here though for them as they travel out west, furthest they have gone in a decade, with their conference opener taking place next week. They have been strong road underdogs the last couple years but they have been double-digit dogs in 14 of their last 17 road games so clearly this is a different scenario. Wyoming is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game and falls into an excellent situation where we play on teams (after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (342) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 27 m | Show |
BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 when it opened the season 12-0 and it has a chance to go deep again this year. The Cougars did not cover their last game but they have dominated all three games, winning the yardage battle by at least 158 total yards each time out. They have the benefit of a couple extra days off for this game and they have had this one circled as they went to Virginia in the season opener last season and lost by three points despite outgaining the Cavaliers by 139 total yards. Revenge will certainly be in play this week and while BYU has Utah St. on deck, it is not for another two weeks. Virginia has looked very good through three games as it narrowly lost to UCLA on opening weekend and followed that up with two wins including an upset of Louisville last week to open ACC play. Considering the Cavaliers won two games all of last season, it has already been a success but now Virginia hits the road for the first time this season. It has won only once in its last nine road games and going back, the Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. We look for BYU to control the line of scrimmage here and have success running the ball which sets up solid situation as we play on home favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (368) BYU Cougars |
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09-20-14 | Florida +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -107 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
There are very few marquee games this weekend but this can classify as one even though the Gators are not ranked. They are coming off a very fortunate win over Kentucky at home last Saturday and while many will look at that final score and think they will not have a chance here, that was a difficult spot with Alabama on deck. On top of that, Kentucky is a much improved team and if Alabama had the Wildcats last week, a closer than expected outcome would not have been surprising there either. The Crimson Tide have been cruising along to start the season but they have failed to cover against some inferior competition. They have not covered a game since last November, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and we are catching a good number here that is above two touchdowns. Florida has a new offense and it has looked very good through two games and while it has not faced a defense like Alabama yet, that stop unit is not up to form yet so the Gators can move the ball here. The Tide defense has allowed more yards in each of the last three years including over 100 more ypg last season than they did in 2011. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better while Alabama is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 home games after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This is the first meeting since 2011 and Florida is getting the most points in this series since the early 90's. 10* (357) Florida Gators |
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09-20-14 | Marshall v. Akron +10 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
Akron last played two weeks ago at Penn St. and while it was competitive for the majority of the game, the Nittany Lions were able to pull away and avoid the backdoor cover. The Zips extra prep time is big here as they have the opportunity to work on things to slow down the Marshall offense and their defense is good enough to do so. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, this team should continue to improve. Marshall is 3-0 following another blowout victory, this time over Ohio as it shellacked the Bobcats by 30 points and outgained them by 328 total yards. This team is no secret as the Thundering Herd came in as one of the possible non-BCS conference teams to run the table and go undefeated. They are overvalued here however as the are a different team on the road than they are at home. Marshall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown off a non-conference game while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Zips are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week. Akron falls into a great situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Akron Zips |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut v. South Florida UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
Auburn comes into Thursday night riding the longest ATS winning streak in the country as it has now covered 13 straight games going back to last season. That alone is making this line bigger than it should be and from a pure power ranking standpoint, I have this game as Auburn being a six-point favorite on a neutral field so this line is a touchdown higher than it should be based on venue. The tigers have rolled to wins over Arkansas and San Jose St. but now this is their toughest opponent to date and it is their first road game of the season on top of it. Kansas City is also 2-0 but it failed to cover either of its games against Stephen F. Austin and Iowa St. so that is also playing into this number. The Wildcats are not home underdogs very often but they have taken advantage of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games a home pup and even better, they are 12-4 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder continues to get the job done and in his career at Kansas St. he has won 64 of 68 home games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, the Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Kansas St. also falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 130-71 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots |
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09-13-14 | Purdue +28.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show |
Purdue went 1-11 last season and while it has already matched that win total this year, the Boilermakers are coming off a disappointing loss last week against Central Michigan. That will certainly have them motivated here as they try to snap a six-game losing skid to rival Notre Dame. The Irish have been on cruise control through their first two games but after winning the last game in the series against Michigan last Saturday night, the first shutout against the Wolverines since 1984, this spells major letdown. This is an interesting matchup from a statistical point of view from last week. Notre Dame was outgained by nine yards against Michigan while Purdue was outgained by seven yards against Central Michigan. Those resulted in two completely different opposite scores as Notre Dame won by 31 points and Purdue lost by 21 points. The difference was turnovers which can change the outcome of a game even if it is played closer than the score shows. The linesmakers are basing this line on the score and not the games so we take advantage of the value. Notre Dame was favored by 17 points at Purdue last year and won by just a touchdown so based on a neutral field change, it is arguably favored by a touchdown more than it should be. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. This is also the last meeting in this series after 68 years and even though it will reconvene in 2020, Purdue should be extremely motivated to end their losing skid to the Irish. 10* (179) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-13-14 | Army v. Stanford -28 | Top | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
This is similar to one of our other plays where we should see a heavy favorite take no prisoners on its overmatched opponent. Stanford did not get off to the start in the Pac 12 it was hoping for as it lost to USC by a field goal at home. A late game winning touchdown was called back because of a penalty and on the day, the Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 122 total yards so it was the better team on the field last week. They threw for 285 yards but could manage only 10 points but that won't be the case this week. We won with Army against Buffalo last week as the Black Knights built a big lead and needed all of it as they withstood a late Bulls rally to win by eight points. They were outgained by 83 yards and while Army was again solid with its offensive rushing, the fact it gave up 554 total yards is a huge concern. This is the first of three straight road games for Army and the other two are quite winnable so getting down early will but the Black Knights in a corner they won't be able to get out of. As for Stanford, it is off next week so there is no reason to think it will not go all out here and try to fix the scoring issue from last week. And they have done it in the past as the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The last time it happened was a three-point loss to USC last season and they won by 50 over California in their next game. 10* (168) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-13-14 | Mississippi State v. South Alabama +15 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
We won with South Alabama last week and we will ride them again this week. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the first home game of the season for South Alabama and this is by far the most high profile opponent to come to Ladd-Peebles Stadium ever. Mississippi St. comes in a perfect 2-0 but has not really been tested. The Bulldogs shutout Southern Miss which came in on a 1-23 run and then took out UAB last week, they defeated the Blazers by just 13 points and were actually outgained by 32 yards and this was at home. The real clincher in going against Mississippi St. is that it opens SEC action next week at LSU and it is a big revenge spot on top of it as it lost to the Tigers by 33 points last season, easily its worst loss of the year. The Bulldogs have not been favored by this much on the road since 2011 and even though it comes against a Sun Belt Conference team, they have not shown anything to justify it. These team met in Starkville in 2012 and the Jaguars lost by only 20 points and that was part of a 2-11 season. Mississippi St. is 2-10 ATS in it 12 games under Dan Mullin following a two-game homestand while the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (158) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-13-14 | Miami (OH) v. Michigan -31 | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -102 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
The country watched Michigan go into Notre Dame as a four-point underdog and leave with its tail between its legs after suffering a 31-0 beatdown. That isn't go to deter the public to back the Wolverines most likely but that is just fine with us as we are getting exceptional value based on the score and not the actual game. Michigan actually outgained Notre Dame by nine yards but it had four turnovers that did the damage. The Wolverines will be out to beat up on someone and what better team than Miami Ohio, losers of 18 straight games. The Warhawks have dropped both games this year at home and one was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. Competing on the road has been a real issues lately as they have lost games by 46, 38, 34 and 36 points in the four game against BCS conferences and two of those were against Illinois and Kentucky last season which won a combined six games. If Michigan goes out and actually puts forth the expected effort, it can name the score and you can pretty much guarantee it has not forgotten what happened against Akron last season. Here, we play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more going up against a team allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential being +37.9 ppg. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Michigan Wolverines |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +35 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
We waited on this game to confirm some injury reports. Baylor is getting quarterback Bryce Petty back for this game which is definitely a big boost after he hurt his back in the season opener. He missed the last game against Northwestern St. but he was not needed in the 70-6 win against the FCS Bears. While Petty returns, it is his main targets that we are concerned about and none of them will be in action tonight. Receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood were already out but it is now clear that Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman will also not play tonight due to leg injuries. All total, that is 3,111 yards, 185 receptions and 26 touchdowns from last season that will not be on the field tonight. Buffalo is coming off a loss last week at Army but it made a gallant effort in trying to come back after trailing by 30 as it scored the final 22 points to lose by eight. The Bulls racked up 554 yards of offense and they will give the Bears their biggest test of the season. Baylor has only four starters back on defense and Buffalo can take advantage as it won't take much on offense to stay within this huge number. This line has gone up because of the Petty news but the other key injuries are not being taken into consideration. This is a revenge game for Buffalo which lost at Baylor last season 70-13 and while the chances of winning are slim, staying within the number are good and even if Baylor does build a lead, Petty will likely exit to stay healthy for the Big XII opener in two weeks. 10* (110) Buffalo Bulls |
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09-11-14 | Houston +18.5 v. BYU | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show |
BYU is coming off a big win over Texas to improve to 2-0 on the season, both wins coming on the road. This is the home opener for the Cougars and based on their lopsided wins, they are laying a bigger than expected number and I feel it will prove to be too big. Houston easily took care of Grambling 47-0 to win its first game of the season following a season opening loss against UTSA. That was a game the Cougars never got in because of turnovers so that 20-point loss is somewhat skewed. Both teams are on the plus side in yardage differentials and it is not as big as everyone thinks. BYU has a +1.7 yppl margin which is solid as anything on the plus side is obviously good but Houston checks in with a +1.4 yppl margin so it is not far behind. BYU won a thriller against Houston last season 47-46 which brings revenge into play as it snapped Houston's undefeated start to the season which was 5-0. The Cougars are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams playing with revenge. Additionally, BYU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off two consecutive road wins since 1992 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (105) Houston Cougars |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-06-14 | Duke v. Troy +19.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show |
Because bettors have significant short-term memories, lines need to adjusted based on recent results and that is certainly the case here. Duke rolled over Elon last week by 39 points as it outgained the Phoenix by 239 total yards and it now hits the road for the first time this season. While it was a dominating win, Elon was coming off a 2-10 season and breaking in a new head coach. While the Blue Devils were 5-0 on the road last year, none of the wins came by more than what they are favored by this week. Troy meanwhile got pummeled at UAB, losing by 38 points and getting outgained by 218 yards. The Trojans return home where they have had only one losing season the last decade and of their 12 losses over that stretch, only one has been by more than 17 points which came in 2011. I think we will see a different team at Veterans Memorial Stadium where Troy has lost only once in its last 21 home openers. Now Duke comes in as a massive road favorite and it is completely inflated. Last season, the Blue Devils were 13.5-point home favorites against Troy and now they are favored by close to a touchdown more on the road. They were a road favorite twice last season at Memphis and Wake Forest but both of those lines were a touchdown or less. The last time Duke was a road favorite of more than 17 points? You have to go back to 1994. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (362) Troy Trojans |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | Top | 41-3 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
We played against Vanderbilt last Thursday and easily won as the Commodores lost by 30 points against Temple and now they go from 8.5-point favorites to 20-point underdogs in the span of a week. That is what we call overreaction. The loss to the Owls was not a good one but Vanderbilt was outgained by just 73 yards and it was seven turnovers which led to 27 points, many of which came on a short field. Defensively, it was a pretty solid effort from Vanderbilt and that should continue here. Mississippi was on the opposite end of things last week as it defeated Boise St. by 22 points but only outgained the Broncos by 59 yards. The Rebels were up by only one point early in the fourth quarter before a barrage of four touchdowns led to the runaway victory. Two of those came on a short field while another came on a 76-yard bomb so Mississippi was fortunate the game was not closer at the end. Because of the two differing outcomes, the Rebels are now massive favorites on the road and while it is not at the Vanderbilt campus, it is at LP Field in Nashville. Mississippi has been favored by 20 points on the road only once over the last decade which came against Tulane and resulted in a loss and it doesn't deserve to be here against another SEC foe. The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while gong 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games anywhere against teams with a losing record. 10* (348) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State +11 v. Utah | Top | 27-59 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
Fresno St. is coming off a blowout loss against USC, it second straight loss to the Trojans going back to last season's Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs opened up 10-0 last year and were making a run at a BCS Bowl game but a loss at San Jose St. killed that. Now they are trying to move on without quarterback Derek Carr who is now taking snaps with the Oakland Raiders. Saturday was not pretty for the defense as it allowed 701 yards against USC but we should see a huge improvement here as it takes a step down in class. Utah was solid on offense last week against Idaho St. but that should be the case when facing a school from the FCS. Last year, the Utes defeated Weber St. 70-7 only to come back and lose at home the next week against Oregon St. so big wins do not always lead to momentum boosts. Utah has gone 5-7 each of the last two seasons and it brings back 12 starters from last year so there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe it will be vastly improved. The Utes have been a double-digit home favorite over FBS teams four times the last three years, going 1-3 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs need to run the ball to be effective and last week, they gained more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.4), which had not happened in a regular-season game since a victory at Nevada during the 2012 season. I like the bounceback angles here as bettors remember last week and ride it. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points while the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (337) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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09-06-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Kent State | Top | 23-13 | Win | 102 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
South Alabama kicks its season off with a road game at Kent St. as it looks to improve upon last season. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year. They bring back 15 starters including nine on an offense that averaged 29.4 ppg and 426 ypg and the defense should be an improved unit as well as they return all four starters in the secondary. Kent St. is coming off a loss against Ohio last week 17-14 as the Bobcats kicked a 44-yard field goal on the last play of the game. It lost the game despite having a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin and that is a rarity which shows how poorly the Golden Flashes really played. They were outgained by 142 total yards and while the defense was solid in allowing only 17 points, the offense could muster up only 295 yards. The Golden Flashes are young up front and really struggled to run the ball last Saturday against Ohio and making matters worse, Trayion Durham is again questionable this week. Here we play against home teams off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kent St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. South Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. 10* (335) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
Boston College and Pittsburgh meet for the first time since 2004 when they were in the Big East. The Eagles are coming off an impressive opener as it was able to take down Massachusetts with relative ease after a slow start. Boston College outgained the Minutemen by 309 total yards and while Massachusetts is expected to be one of the worst teams in the country, it was a big game for the Boston College offense which lost a ton from last season. The Eagles gained 511 total yards and Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was outstanding at quarterback. Pittsburgh was equally impressive as it destroyed Delaware 62-0, outgaining the Blue Hens by 444 total yards. As dominating as it was, the Panthers are another team that is going through some rebuilding changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they allowed only 57 total yards but it is tough to gauge exactly how good that is when playing an FCS opponent and a very average one at that. Last season, the Eagles went 5-1 at Alumni Stadium, giving Florida St. a competitive game in their only defeat. They were able to cover both games as a home underdog and it is hard to substantiate them being a home underdog here with so many question marks still looming on the other side. Boston College falls into a great early season situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent). 10* (304) Boston College Eagles |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
UTSA came through for us last Friday and while it wasn't overly dominating, it was good enough to put us back on them here. The Roadrunners won by 20 points thanks to a +3 turnover margin advantage but the potential was there to be more dictating, 14 penalties for 115 yards limited their production on both sides. Still, the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 213 yards against a potentially potent offense and it is hard to look past the experience of this team as UTSA has 12 starters back. Arizona was very impressive last week as it destroyed UNLV by 45 points while outgaining the Rebels by 416 total yards. The Wildcats put up 787 total yards which was the most of any team last weekend so the Roadrunners will have their hands full but I expect them to be up to the task in their home opener. This is a very young Arizona offense so we cannot take last week's performance too serious against a UNLV team that has a bowl ban and motivation is low. UTSA lost by 25 points at Arizona last year but it was only outgained by 43 total yards and it will be out for revenge. Arizona is 3-14 ERA in its last 17 road games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more yards while UTSA falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -106 | 108 h 38 m | Show |
The Miami Hurricanes made some noise last season by starting off 7-0 and making it as high as seventh in the polls but then they ran into Florida St. and were blown out, the start of three straight losses. While the start of last season was special, it could be even better in 2014 as Miami enters this season free of distractions with there no longer being a cloud hanging over the program because of NCAA investigations. Last season, we talked about how freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was the real deal before his first game against Pittsburgh and that proved correct. Miami is in a similar situation this season as it is also starting a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya and he too is the real deal. With the healthy return of running back Duke Johnson and a great corps of receivers, the offense should be solid and will go up against a Louisville defense that returns only four starters from last season. Miami is catching Louisville at the best possible time as the Cardinals break in a new quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater fled to the NFL and his replacement does not have the same hype. Will Gardner takes over and while he has had a great spring and fall, he will be without his top target as receiver Devante Parker is out with a foot injury and the Preseason ACC First Team players is expected to miss six weeks. That is a big loss for sure. The Hurricanes defense was atrocious last season but they bring back seven starters and the defense will be tougher and more disrupting. The game is a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl, a game #18 Louisville won 36-9 so the Hurricanes will be out for revenge and ruin the Cardinals ACC Debut. Miami is 10-1 ATS under head coach Al Golden when the line is +3 to -3 while going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as conference underdogs of seven points or less. 10* (209) Miami Hurricanes |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 54 m | Show |
LSU is once again one of the top teams in the SEC despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL including its starting quarterback, starting running back and top two receivers. The Tigers are now in rebuilding mode and while the recruiting was once again strong, we may see some early issues in the beginning of the season. LSU is going to pound the ball on the ground because of the lack of experience at quarterback. The Tigers will start either sophomore Anthony Jennings or true freshman Brandon Harris and they have never had a true first-year player start a season opener at quarterback. Wisconsin went 9-3 during the regular season last year with all three losses coming by a touchdown or less and the Badgers are the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Wisconsin brings back only 10 returning starters but has 23 different players who made at least one start last year so there is plenty of depth and experience. While the Tigers have never lost a non-conference regular season game under head coach Les Miles, going 45-0 over that stretch, they have not faced too many tests along the way either. In the past 10 years, Wisconsin is 34-2 against non-conference opponents in the regular season, with their only two losses coming to Oregon State in 2012 and Arizona State in 2013, both of which ended with controversial calls against Wisconsin. This game takes place in Houston so there is no real home field edge for either side although LSU should have the higher fan base but it will be insignificant. These two teams are more evenly matched than what the line is telling us and being on a neutral field, I have this game as a pickem so we are catching significant value. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Wisconsin Badgers |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 101 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
After consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Georgia took a step backward last year with only eight wins and finished the season with an 8-5 record after losing to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs suffered through numerous injuries to key players on offense, came into the season with just three returning starters on defense, were -7 in turnover margin and suffered four of their losses by five points or less. All of that equates to a big turnaround this year and they have dropped at low as 18-1 in some spots to win the National Championship Game. Granted, Georgia has to move on without Aaron Murray at quarterback but Hutson Mason is very skilled and he has a lot around him including a healthy Todd Gurley at running back. The defense now brings back eight starters and will be vastly improved. The good news here is they face a Clemson offense that lost some huge impact players including quarterback Taj Boyd, receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Roderick McDowell. I do expect Clemson to have a solid season but this is not the opponent it wants to be facing in its first game of the season ,especially one that is playing with revenge. The Tigers won the meeting last year by a field goal despite getting outgained by 78 total yards and the change in venue only solidifies the revenge factor as Georgia has won 16 straight home openers and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the ACC. The number may seem big here as the teams are only four spots away in the Preseason AP Poll but we all know those rankings mean little. This could be considered a statement game for Georgia as since 2008, it has started every season ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 but only once did it finish the season ranked higher than where it started. This is a big game to get the season rolling. 10* (182) Georgia Bulldogs |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 83 h 21 m | Show |
Houston comes into the season as a sleeper team from the AAC as it returns 17 starters from last year's 8-5 squad. The Cougars will be potent once again on offense but the issue is the defense where they allowed big numbers once again under head coach Tony Levine, his second with the program. Houston benefited from a +25 turnover margin last season and those things certainly tend to reverse themselves or at least become more in line to the median the following year. Texas-San Antonio is also coming off a wining season and this is a team that could fly under the radar for at least the first part of the season. The Roadrunner have only been in existence since 2009 and didn't start competing until 2011 but having Larry Coker as the head coach was a perfect hire for a new program. They were ineligible for a bowl game last season and they bring a lot of momentum into this season as they won their last five games and carrying that over should not be an issue with 20 starts returning from last year. UTSA is picked to win the C-USA West by a lot of outlets and the schedule sets up well to do so. They went -7 in turnover margin last season and that comes directly into play in this one as the Roadrunners coughed it up five times against Houston last year in a 59-28 loss. Making it even more frustrating is the fact that UTSA actually outgained Houston by two total yards in that game signaling it was a lot closer than the final score indicated. UTSA was favored in that game by a field goal so now we are seeing a line move that is roughly 14 points in most spots and that is too big of an adjustment. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS lifetime on the road and this atmosphere will not be intimidating to the them at all. 10* (151) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers +8 v. Washington State | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 197 h 12 m | Show |
Rutgers begins its first season in the Big Ten and many are picking the Scarlet Knights to finish last in the conference in addition to last in the East Division. While they probably won't be going bowling after making the postseason the last three years, this is still a very talented team that returns 16 starters from last season and they should be a competitive bunch. The schedule is not only brutal but they are facing 12 teams they did not face last season so there will be no familiarity in gameplanning. Rutgers has a good opportunity to open the season 4-1 however as this is a very winnable game in my opinion. Washington St. is nothing special and this game isn't even taking place on its home field as it is being played in Seattle. The Cougars will clearly have the fan base but it is just not the same. They finished 6-6 last season and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 but lost to Colorado St. There is little optimism for improvement this year and while the offense should again be potent, the loss of three starters on the offensive line is a concern. Washington St. has been favored against a BCS opponent just three times in the Mike Leach era. It was a 1.5-point favorite against California and Utah last year and while it won both games, there is little reason to believe that the Cougars should be more than a touchdown favorite here. Rutgers falls into a great contrarian as we play on any team in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from last season who lost four or more of their last 5 games and finished with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 195 h 13 m | Show |
It was a huge disappointing season for Tulsa last year. The Golden Hurricane finished 3-9 overall including 2-6 in C-USA and now they take the jump to the much more competitive AAC. The good news is that Tulsa should be much more competitive as well. Last season, they had just nine starters coming back from an 11-3 season in 2012 which was its third straight winning season. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane suffered a ton of injuries along the way but now they are healthy and have 15 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. Losing their last five home games last season should have them pretty amped up come Thursday night on national television. Tulane was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 7-5 and went to its first bowl game since 2002 but ended up losing to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall, the Green Wave dropped four of their last five games so they come in with very little momentum and they will also have to make up for the loss of eight starters. They still struggled away from home last season despite the overall success as they were 2-4 in true road games and have not won more than two road games in a season in over a decade. Tulsa will be playing with revenge in mind as it lost at Tulane 14-7 which was the first loss to the Green Wave after eight straight wins. All of those wins were covers as well and the last four home victories for Tulsa over the Green Wave were by 35, 28, 49 and 35 points and with these teams going in different directions from last season, I expect an easy win for the home team here. 10* (138) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 294 h 10 m | Show |
Based on the fact that this game is being played outdoors in a cold weather environment, many will be expecting a low scoring game but weather rarely dictates how totals come through. A classic example this season was the Lions Eagles game where they played in a snowstorm the entire game and the game ended up going over. The one weather element that can have an affect on an outdoor football game is wind but it needs to be substantial and the long range forecast for Super Bowl Sunday is a temperature in the high 20's to low 30's and moderate wind. This can certainly change and if anything severe comes into play, we can buy this back but for now, we are playing the over and we likely are not going to see numbers as low as this as a steady rise of the total up until game time is expected. We are catching extraordinary value in this total from the Denver standpoint as this is the lowest total it has seen all season with the exception of opening day where it was the same and of course we saw 76 points scored in that one. The Broncos have gone under the total in five straight games after going over in 11 of their first 13 games and that is helping with the value. Also helping is the fact that the Seattle defense is ranked number one in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Seahawks are allowing just 275.1 ypg and 13.6 ppg and while the points have not increased much in the playoffs, they have allowed 717 yards in their two playoff games and now they will be facing the most potent offense in the NFL on Super Bowl Sunday. Seattle has gone under in seven straight games and while this is the highest total of the bunch, it is for good reason and will only get higher. Denver has an average defense and Seattle has shown the ability it can score but the feeling here is that the Seahawks may not need that many points to push this one over. Two situations are on our side as well. First, we play on the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Seattle) that is coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense that is allowing 17 or less ppg. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Denver) that is averaging 27 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 27-5 (84.4 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (101) Seattle Seahawks/(102) Denver Broncos
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
I will be using some of the same analysis from the other play as it pertains here as well. While the Denver offense has been the best in the NFL this season, Seattle has the ingredients to slow it down, not necessarily stop it but that isn't imperative. The Seahawks offense has not looked it best of late but it will be facing a Broncos defense that has been playing over its head the last four games by allowing no more than 17 points the last four games. They had allowed 17 points or less only once in their previous 14 games and the Seahawks are ranked eighth in the league in points scored so they will get their production in what I feel is a very good matchup. Defense is the key when it comes to the big game. This is just the fifth Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger to match up the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense. It's been advantage defense with those teams going 4-1 in past Super Bowls. Additionally, this is the 16th time that the defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The previous 15 teams went 12-3 in those Super Bowls. As mentioned, I don't think Seattle can stop the Broncos offense, despite the top ranked overall and scoring defense in the NFL but I do think the Seahawks can certainly slow them down with the best secondary in football. They were first in yards allowed, first in interceptions and first in yards per attempt. Any sort of pass rush will get Peyton Manning flustered enough which will lead to mistakes or lack of production at the very least. Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record including a perfect 6-0 ATS record when the opposition has a winning percentage of .750 or better. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game when getting points. Looking at power rankings alone and Seattle is the better team that has played a tougher schedule to get here, including the playoffs. I was hoping to get a better line with the public lining up behind Denver and while that still may happen, we will pull the trigger now on the Seahawks getting points of any kind as they should be the team that is favored on Sunday. 10* (101) Seattle Seahawks
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -101 | 151 h 12 m | Show |
After the first meeting in Seattle this season, won by the Seahawks by 26 points, many are expecting a similar outcome in the NFC Championship. Not here. The 49ers are a much different team this time around and in that first meeting in Seattle, they were without a few players, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis for the second half, that are now back in the lineup. While there may be some who think that San Francisco playing for a third straight week in the playoffs is at a disadvantage but that is not the case. The 49ers momentum is off the charts right now plus the past three Super Bowl champions have had to play three straight playoff games so there is hardly a disadvantage. San Francisco is the only team entering the conference championships that didn't have a first-round bye and has had to play on the road. With eight straight wins including the last three all on the road, it is far from a big deal. We all know Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and while it is coming off a seemingly easy victory over the Saints, what is hidden is the fact that the Seahawks allowed 409 total yards and were outgained by 132 yards. That is not good news facing a 49ers offense that is moving the ball with great precision right now. On the other side, the 49ers are ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense and they have allowed only 15.2 ppg in its past 11 games. San Francisco manhandled Carolina's offense in seven goal-to-go situations in the first half, preventing them from scoring a short touchdown with two great goal-line stands. There are still many 3.5's out there and that is the number to get on as a game decided by a field goal either way is what we are expecting here. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (303) San Francisco 49ers
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots +5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 52 m | Show |
Denver opened as high as -7 in some spots and that number came down almost immediately as the early money hammered New England. While we are not getting the same big number here, we are still getting a very strong number as the overvaluation of the Broncos continues. Denver outgained San Diego by 104 totals yards and despite a 24-7 lead, it was unable to hold onto the cover as the Chargers suck in the backdoor. Taking nothing away from San Diego, but when comparing lines, the Chargers are not only three points worse than New England which is what the numbers are telling us. The Broncos and Patriots are very evenly matched as their one-game record difference justifies but the Broncos are still getting too much credit here. The home/road splits are having an effect on that but when looking at New England's four road losses, three were by four points or less while the other one was by seven points in a torrential rainstorm in Cincinnati. A big advantage is that for the Patriots, they are as healthy and as deep as they have been all season in the secondary, which is ideal. The matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is epic in itself and while both have been incredible throughout their careers, we have to give an edge to Brady as he has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups between the two including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. While past history can mean little, the fact that he has Bill Belichick with him on the sidelines is huge in the postseason. While the Patriots postseason ATS numbers have been average of late, they are usually favored and they have won 17 of 25 games with Brady at quarterback. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in January. 10* (301) New England Patriots
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
We won with San Diego on Sunday as it went on the road and took care of the Bengals with relative ease. Many will be bucking the Chargers this week as they feel they cannot manage another strong game for a second straight week, especially against the high powered Broncos. I may be in the minority but I think the Chargers can in fact do it again and they certainly are not intimidated by playing in Denver as they have already won here, handing the Broncos their lone home loss of the season. Sure, Denver will be out for revenge but that does not mean San Diego will be any less motivated this time around. The Broncos were in a similar position last year as heavy home favorites but they ended up losing to Baltimore in overtime in a game that they never covered. That will have no impact here whatsoever as Denver cannot be expected to pick it up a notch to avoid a similar outcome. It comes down to matchups and the Chargers do in fact match up very well with Denver. And a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. The Denver offense has run fewer than 65 plays in two games this season, both against McCoy's Chargers and that is no coincidence. The Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In two games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. Quarterback Philip Rivers says that this is his favorite road venue to play at and he has quietly put together one of his best seasons ever and I expect that to continue against the banged up and below average Broncos defense. San Diego falls into a solid situation as we p[lay against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* San Diego Chargers
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
San Francisco was able to win in the final seconds in Green Bay to advance to the Divisional round to take on Carolina. I like the value with Carolina at home but the 49ers are on a roll right now and it is tough to get in their way but as far as the total goes, there is one clear cut way to go. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL and that was on display in the first meeting between these two teams which resulted in a 10-9 Carolina win in San Francisco. That is part of a run that has seen the Panthers stay under the total in eight of their last nine games and that is certainly a streak I prefer going against, especially this time of year. The 49ers and Packers stayed under in their game in the first round and that snapped a streak of three straight overs for San Francisco so the potential for high scoring games is definitely there. As mentioned in the Seattle/New Orleans total analysis, while each game is different than the rest and none are based on the past, Divisional round games are 11-1 to the over the last three years and I do not think this is just a coincidence. Both teams come in with significant situations on their sides. First, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over involving teams coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .750 or higher. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Third, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with an offense averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg. This situation is 25-7 (78.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (115) San Francisco 49ers/(116) Carolina Panthers
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 126 h 28 m | Show |
We were on the Colts last week as they were able to overcome a 38-10 deficit and put out the miraculous victory in the second greatest playoff comeback of all time. While it may be hard to imagine a letdown effect in the playoffs, Indianapolis could very well see some of that this week. As mentioned last week, the Colts are playing arguably their best football of the season, this is the toughest task of this current stretch. Indianapolis has won four straight games but it has outgained opponents by only an average of only 56 ypg and three of those games were at home. The Colts are 5-3 on the road but one of those wins came against Jacksonville while two others came by three points against non-playoff teams Tennessee and Houston. Yes, there were impressive wins over San Francisco and Kansas City, but neither of those teams were playing with extra rest like New England is. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye including easy wins the last two years in the Divisional round against teams coming off home wins. New England is 8-0 at home this season, covering six of those games including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the line is less than 9.5 points. This is where Tom Brady shines and he could have a field day Saturday night. The Indianapolis defense struggled to stop the Chiefs Sunday, particularly through the air, making it seem as though there could be some holes there for New England to exploit. And with a solid running game, the balanced attack will be too much for the Colts. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win and they are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games in December and January. The Colts meanwhile are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (114) New England Patriots
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
Last season, every favorite covered in the opening round of the playoffs but this year, the Wildcard round was an underdog bettors dream as all four underdogs covered the closing lines so late bettors were able to cash all four tickets. We were on every one of those dogs but we will be switching it up in the first game on Saturday and backing the Seahawks. Seattle had an opening round bye which has been a big benefit the last two years as teams with a bye have gone 6-2 in the Divisional round and Seattle knows all about this as it was taken out by Atlanta last season following a road win. Now the Seahawks are on the opposite side of things as they now host a team coming off a road win. The Saints won their first ever playoff road game at Philadelphia but the Eagles did not possess the same home field edge that the Seahawks have. They are 7-1 at home and one of those wins was a complete domination of New Orleans as they held the Saints to just 188 total yards. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson had one of his best games of the season, completing 22 of 30 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns. I do not think they will dominate as much this time around but they should walk out with a comfortable win on Saturday. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for New Orleans to put up a better fight but the Seahawks pull away late for another comfortable win. 10* (112) Seattle Seahawks
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -9 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
While this is the National Championship game and the biggest game of the entire season, it is not the biggest betting game of the entire season and should not be treated that way as this one is no different than opening night. The ATS records of both sides suggest that each team has been covering at record clips as not only are Florida St. and Auburn considered the two best teams in the country right now, they are also the two best covering teams as both come in with 11-2 ATS marks. The Seminoles have covered six straight while the Tigers have covered 10 straight so there is no significant streak to go against. So this one really comes down to the matchups and this is where Florida St. has a significant advantage. Auburn looks to keep the streak of SEC champions going and make it eight in a row but what sets the Tigers apart from all the rest is they have no defense. Auburn is ranked 88th in the country in total defense and six of the seven previous champions were ranked in the top ten in total defense. Coincidentally, the lone exception was Auburn in 2010 but they were a much more respectable 56th. The one thing the Tigers do well this season is limiting redzone touchdowns as they are eighth in redzone defense but this is the most balanced team they have faced this season with three 500-yard rushers and three 900-yards receivers so the Seminoles have too many options for Auburn to contend with. On the other side, the Tigers have the best rushing offense in the nation but if they get behind and need to pass, they will rely on the 107th ranked passing offense and that is not a good thing. Florida St. is third in total defense, 13th in rushing defense, first in passing defense and first in scoring defense. The Seminoles simply possess too much on both sides of the ball for Auburn to keep up and its luck finally runs out tonight. Here, we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 58-20 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) Florida St. Seminoles
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01-05-14 | Arkansas State v. Ball State UNDER 64 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Bettors have been killing it with the overs the last few bowl games as they are on an 8-1 run after the early games on New Years and 12-4 over since New Years Eve. While those games do not dictate this outcome, the adjustments of the total does and we are getting value because of it. Adjustments have been made throughout the last couple weeks but it is no secret that the over will get a majority of the action again tonight and a lot of that is also history based. Arkansas St. has gone over the total in each of its last four games while Ball St. has also gone over the total in each of its last four games. Regulars know that is a trend I love going against, especially when both teams are involved in extensive ones. There is no doubt these offenses are explosive but the defenses have held their own for the most part. It is interesting to note these teams are a combined 0-5 against teams that also made it to a bowl game and those were some of the worst offensive performances of their season as the average score on offense in those five games was just 17.8 ppg. Both of these teams have had successful over runs this season but a lot of that has had to do with where the total stood. When the total was less than 62, Arkansas St. was 6-2 to the over but when it was 62 or higher, it was 3-1 to the under. For Ball St., it was also 6-2 to the over when the total was less than 62 but was 2-2 when it was higher than 62. Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 8-1 to the under in its last nine games when playing a nonconference game away from home. On the other side, the under is 6-2-1 in the Cardinals last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* Under (267) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(268) Ball St. Cardinals
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
It can be argued that the Packers got pretty fortunate to make it into the playoffs thanks to their great come from behind win over the Bears thanks to a 48-yard touchdown pass in the final minute or the fluke fumble return touchdown in the first half. Still, this is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and after outgaining the Bears by 128 yards on Sunday, the Packers deserve it. Green Bay went 2-5-1 without Rodgers, counting the Chicago game where he left early and 6-2 with him so those that may complain about getting a home game against a team that is 3.5 games better, I will be the first to say the Packers deserve it. This game opened at a pick and jumped to the 49ers being favored in a matter of minutes and I will take those points any day. This is taking nothing away from the 49ers which are a very solid team as they are 12-4 and come in riding a six-game winning streak which is always important heading into the playoffs. Five of those wins came against non-playoff teams however and while the win over Seattle was big, it was at home in a big revenge spot. They won the last game in Arizona but were outgained by 107 yards and their last road game against a quality opponent was at New Orleans and despite losing by just three points, they were outgained by 191 total yards. The early forecast in Green Bay is a big edge for the Packers as it is expected to snow with temperatures in the teens. Let's not forget Green Bay lost in San Francisco opening week and it falls into a great revenge situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent, off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Green Bay Packers
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 42 m | Show |
Let me start off by saying that the Chargers are extremely fortunate to be here as the Chiefs missed a winning field goal that would have put the Steelers into the playoffs. On top of that, the NFL acknowledged that San Diego should have been penalized for an illegal formation that would have given Kansas City another shot at a field goal. San Diego ended up winning in overtime and we have seen numerous times over the years that teams which get away with such things can ride that into the playoffs and the Chargers could be another one of those. San Diego finished the season 9-7 but it is hard to ignore the fact it won its final four games to get into the postseason including a very impressive win at Denver. The Chargers last loss was at home against Cincinnati and to be clear, this is not a play based on road revenge but it certainly doesn't hurt it being in our favor. It is no secret that the Bengals dominated at home this season going a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number. Don't think for a second that the linesmakers do not know this and we are getting a very good line because of it. The Chargers were 10-point dogs in their last road game at Denver so this is saying that Cincinnati is just three points worse than Denver on a neutral field. I don't think so. The Bengals have a solid home field edge no doubt but I am expecting a much closer than expected game and we cannot rule out a San Diego outright victory as this is a very solid team. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) San Diego Chargers
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
At this point, most everyone knows about the Saints trouble on the road as they are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games but something says they step it up in the playoffs starting Saturday in Philadelphia. New Orleans was dominant in its last game which was a must win against Tampa Bay and while it was not a win against a quality team, it was in fact a big win with momentum to carry over into here. Additionally, the Saints have a very good matchup against a poor Philadelphia defense that they can take advantage of. Philadelphia closed the season very strong with wins in seven of its last eight games so it clearly comes in with some positive momentum as well. The Eagles have been nothing special at home, going 4-4 and while that does include wins in their last four games, this is the biggest test to date. They are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and they have not fared well overall against the better teams, going just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against winning teams. New Orleans should have plenty of success on offense as the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in total defense and New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg including a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 260 or mpre passing ypg. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show |
I am a firm believer of not resting starters in the final week of the regular season even if a playoff berth or a playoff seed is already locked up. While it avoids injury, it also takes away any momentum that a team may have had heading into the postseason. Kansas City rested its starters in Week 17 against the Chargers and nearly pulled off the upset and a week off for the starters probably will not affect them as it is just like a bye week. The issue here is that the Chiefs had no momentum to begin with so winning that final game could have been a big confidence boost. They opened the season 9-0 but closed by going 2-5 over their last seven games and at 9-0, many suspected they were a fraud. I still believe that. The Chiefs are 0-3 this season against teams ranked in the top ten in the NFL while the Colts are 4-2 and while that record difference is impressive enough, it shows a much tougher schedule that the Colts have played, 11th vs. 26th for Kansas City. Indianapolis won its final three games of the season including a win at Kansas City so it comes in with plenty of momentum. I am rarely an advocate of road revenge, which the Chiefs are in, and that is certainly no reason to back them here. The Colts are 6-2 at home with losses coming against Miami and St. Louis despite outgaining both. Two quality home wins came against Seattle and Denver and those teams had only three losses apiece all season long. Here, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. The Colts get it done at home. 10* (102) Indianapolis Colts
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 71.5 | Top | 40-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
When these teams come to mind, most think of two very potent offenses and that is certainly true but the defenses do not get enough credit on either side. Clemson is ranked 22nd in total defense, allowing 350.8 ypg while Ohio St. is ranked 30th in total defense, allowing 362.2 ypg. The scoring defenses are also right up there as both teams allow just a tad over 21 ppg which is good for the top 20 for both teams. Despite this, we are seeing one of the biggest totals in the entire bowl schedule as the number has risen about four points in most places since opening around 67. The Clemson defense should be especially pumped up for this game as it does not want a repeat of a couple years ago as it will be trying to make amends for its embarrassing 70-33 loss to West Virginia in the 2012 Orange Bowl. Comparing the two units, Clemson is 55 spots higher than the 2011 season in total defense, 64 spots higher in scoring defense than 2011 and 65 spots higher in third-down conversion defense than 2011. In addition, Clemson ranks second in the nation in three-and-outs and leads the nation with 112 tackles for loss. Clemson needs eight more to set the new single-season school record. The Tigers have had trouble stopping the run, allowing an average of 169.5 rushing ypg in their last four games, but have been solid against the pass, yielding an average of 132.3 ypg and two total passing touchdowns over that same span and that means we should see a heavy dose of running which keeps the clock going as well. We has a fantastic situation on our side as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in a game involving two teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 (83.3 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (263) Clemson Tigers/(264) Ohio St. Buckeyes
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is not the bowl game that Alabama was hoping for and while some may expect a letdown following that shocking loss to Auburn, I think this is a statement game for the Tide even though it may not mean much in the long haul. This senior class has never lost a bowl game and they will not want to go out and end their careers by losing two straight games. Going back, Alabama has not lost back-to-back games since 2008 when it lost the SEC Championship to Florida and then lost to Utah in the Sugar Bowl. The Tide have lost only six games since then, including the Auburn loss, and they are 5-0 following those previous five losses. Oklahoma closed the season by winning its last three games including a huge upset at Oklahoma St. in the regular season finale but it was a fortunate victory that saw two touchdowns in the final minute of the game. The Sooners gutted out 10 wins this season despite rotating between three quarterbacks and that is not the ideal setup against an Alabama team that is ranked second nationally in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. On the other side, the Sooners defense looks great on paper, being ranked 14th in the nation in total defense however against two of their toughest foes this year, Texas and Baylor, their defense surrendered a combined 904 yards, including 510 on the ground. Look for Alabama to take advantage of this from the start. The Tide also have a great situation on their side as we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams allowing 280 or fewer ypg. This situation is 76-39 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (260) Alabama Crimson Tide
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +7 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Stanford hails from the stronger conference but I d not think that equates to being close to a touchdown better than Michigan St. both teams were just a few plays away from possible undefeated seasons as the Cardinal lost their two games by a combined nine points while the Spartans lost their lone game by just four points at Notre Dame. Both teams come in riding winning streaks but it is Michigan St.'s run that is the bigger one at nine games and while it can be argued the schedule was soft, including was five wins against teams playing in bowl games and all of those came by double digits. Stanford has been bet pretty hard here as this line opened at three and has steadily risen over the last three weeks. These are two excellent defensive teams which should mean a low scoring game which always favors the underdog. Michigan St. is going to be without linebacker Max Bullough who was suspended Wednesday for violating team rules and while a big loss, there is still plenty around him. Both teams will be motivated to end the season strong but I still give a slight edge to the Spartans in that category. The Cardinal won their first Rose Bowl in 40 years when they beat Wisconsin 20-14 last season while this is the first trip to Pasadena for Michigan St. in 46 years. The Spartans fall into a simple yet effective situation as we play against teams in the second half of the season averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams allowing 280 or fewer ypg. This situation is 76-39 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (255) Michigan St. Spartans
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin v. South Carolina UNDER 51 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is a pretty evenly matched game which could go either way and I feel we are getting some great value on the total. January bowl games in this totals range are 74-32 (70 percent) to the under when teams from BCS conference square off and while we cannot blindly bet that trend, it makes sense. Teams with this much time off tend to lose some continuity on offense while the defenses do not fall off as much. Additionally, we are dealing with two excellent defenses here. Wisconsin is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense while South Carolina comes in ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the scoring defenses are even better, with Wisconsin and South Carolina coming in fifth and 13th respectively. These are definitely two potent offenses but they should be slowed down enough by the opposing stop units to keep this game a low scoring one. We have two excellent situations here as well as we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving a team, in this case Wisconsin, after having won three out of their last four games, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 62-20 (75.6 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (251) Wisconsin Badgers/(252) South Carolina Gamecocks
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01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
For the second straight season, Nebraska and Georgia meet in a New Years Day bowl game. Last season, it was the Capital One Bowl and the Bulldogs prevailed 45-31 as they racked up 589 yards of total offense while rallying from a 31-23 third quarter deficit. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray had a monster game, throwing for 427 yards and five touchdowns but Murray will not be around for the rematch this season. Of course neither will Huskers quarterback Taylor Martinez who is out with a bad hip injury. With that position being a wash, I am expecting a pretty evenly matched game and I feel this spread is way too high for Georgia to be laying. Seven of Georgia's 12 games were decided by a touchdown or less so it has had its share of close games and we should see another one here. Nebraska lost its final regular season game at home against Iowa so it should come in even more hungry. It is interesting to note that the last two Huskers losses, they outgained the opposition but they lost the turnover battle in both and by a combined 8-0 so that certainly was not helping their cause. The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss while the Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. This is a revenge game for Nebraska as it looks to get some payback from a year ago and additionally, the Huskers will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason and none of them have even been close. 10* (247) Nebraska Cornhuskers
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12-31-13 | Duke +13 v. Texas A&M | Top | 48-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
What exactly has Texas A&M done lately to warrant being favored by so many points here? Yes, the SEC vs. the ACC looks like a mismatch on paper over the majority but the matchup is not a very good one for the Aggies in my opinion. The over/under on hearing "Johnny Football" by the announcers is about the same at the points total which is 75 meaning we are expecting to see a high scoring game from two potent offenses. Of course Johnny Manziel will want to go out a winner but that is hardly a motivation factor for this game as the overall picture shows Duke wanting to cap off a record season with a victor. The Blue Devils won 10 games for the first time, and they're playing in bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history. They have not won a bowl game since defeating Arkansas in the 1961 Cotton Bowl, a 52-year drought. They got hammered by Florida St. in their last game but the Seminoles have been doing that to every team. Texas A&M has not. The Aggies have lost two straight games and have been outgained in three straight games and the defense remains the issue. Texas A&M allows 460.3 ypg which is 105th in the nation while giving up 221.3 ypg on the ground, 108th in the country. Playing a defense that bad with the amount of points that Duke is getting is keeping that back door wide open. The Aggies were hoping for bigger and better things this season so playing in a non-New Years Day bowl game is a big disappointment and after seeing Arizona St. fall last night, another upset would not be surprising at all. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (245) Duke Blue Devils
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12-31-13 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 12-42 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
The Sun Bowl features two teams which came into the season with high expectations but failed to meet them. UCLA was a sleeper pick to win the Pac 12 and while it came close to making the championship game, it could not recover from a pair of losses against Oregon and Stanford and then a setback against Arizona St. The Bruins have a very potent offense but I see them struggling here in what is a bad matchup. Virginia Tech lost four games this season but none were horrible losses. The Hokies opened the season with a loss against Alabama but actually outgained the Tide in that game. The other three losses, all against bowl teams, came by a combined 13 points which makes today's line very much in our favor even though the strength of the Pac 12 is greater than that of the ACC. As long as Virginia Tech can protect the football, it has a great chance of taking this one outright. Predicting turnovers is impossible but what we do know is that Virginia Tech has big edges where it counts, at the line of scrimmage and its overall defense. The Hokies possess one of the top defensive lines in the nation while the Bruins have three starters on the offensive line that are freshmen. Additionally, the Hokies allowed 154 ypg less than what their opponents averaged on the season which is a huge variance and that is good for tops in the nation. UCLA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games away from home coming off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Additionally, we play on teams in a BCS conference matchup in the second half of the season that are averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 ypg. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Virginia Tech Hokies
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12-30-13 | Texas +14.5 v. Oregon | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
If this game was played during the regular season, it may be a different outcome or in the very least, a different mindset on both sides. Oregon was thinking National Championship just a few short weeks ago until it lost yet again to Stanford and its season was done. The Ducks lost big at Arizona two weeks after that and then barely escaped the Civil War against Oregon St. as they won by just a point. After opening 6-1 ATS, Oregon closed 0-4 against the number but it is still laying a sizable number here simply because it is Oregon and the public has loved this team all season long. What is their motivation here though? Playing in the Alamo Bowl is certainly not what they wanted. Texas does not want to be here either as this is its second straight Alamo Bowl appearance but this one is certainly different. The Longhorns defeated Oregon St. here last season so there is no rebound factor but their motivation comes from trying to send head coach Mack Brown out a winner and playing in the state of Texas does not hurt matters. Oregon is clearly the better team on paper but as we all know, games are not played on paper. Texas is is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing with two weeks or more of rest while under Brown, the Longhorns are 8-1 ATS in nine games away from home following a double-digit conference loss. 10* (235) Texas Longhorns
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State v. Navy -6.5 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee closed the season strong with five straight wins. The first was an upset of Marshall which was definitely the turning point but it was one of those games that many saw coming, including us, as it was a big national television contest. The Blue Raiders then won their next four games to close the regular season but those came against teams that finished the season a combined 6-42 so while they enter this game with momentum, it can be considered false momentum. Playing Navy is difficult during the regular season because preparing for its option attack is tough. With additional time to prepare, it would seem that playing the Midshipmen in a bowl game would give some sort of edge and that has been the case as Navy has lost three of its last four bowl games. I do not think that comes into play here however as the seniors are 0-2 in bowl games and want to go out as winners. They lost 62-28 against Arizona St. last season and the motivation will be strong to make up for that debacle, especially with this being the Armed Forced Bowl. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing nine points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 78-36 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games away from home after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in three straight games while the Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (232) Navy Midshipmen
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 81 h 0 m | Show |
The winner of this game takes the NFC East and as of right now, the Eagles are being handed the division based on this line and the talking heads saying Dallas has no chance. Obviously the loss of Tony Romo is huge and while he has not been completely rules out, the chances of him playing are extremely slim but Kyle Orton is a very capable backup. Taking snaps with the first team all week definitely is a plus and while everyone talks about how bad the Cowboys defense is, people fail to realize that the Eagles defense is just as bad as they are ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Cowboys has a legitimate shot of piling on points, Romo or not. The Eagles are coming off a blowout win which is another reason the public loves them but if anything that gives us a great opportunity to go against them. While they are 5-2 on the road, four of those wins came against teams 4-11, 4-11, 3-12 and 6-9 with the other coming against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is 0-4 ATS its last four games and that is a streak I love playing against. Also, we have two situations in our favor. First we play on home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1983. also, we play against road favorites averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Dallas Cowboys
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12-29-13 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 56 m | Show |
We won with the Patriots last week as they rolled in Baltimore. Normally that would signal a play against spot this week, or at the very least, a no play but that is not the case this week. New England still has a lot at stake as it needs to win to clinch a first round bye and it can still claim home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss. There will be no letting up from the Patriots and even more so as they remember how they almost lost in Buffalo in Week One. The Bills put together one of their best games of the season last week as they shut out Miami and held the Dolphins to 103 total yards of offense. Don't expect that again as Buffalo has held opponents to fewer than 300 yards five other times and allowed 483, 386, 300, 423 and 354 next time out. Here we play against road teams that are coming off a double-digit win as home underdogs. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1989. Also, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) New England Patriots
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 55 m | Show |
The Broncos were torching every team they played early in the season but they have not looked close to the same over the last few weeks. They are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games since losing their first game of the season at Indianapolis and while that record contradicts the first sentence, Denver has been able to pull away late in some games to grab the cover that it hasn't always deserved. The Broncos need to win this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs since New England losing at home to Buffalo is unlikely so they are playing for something but that doesn't always mean a cover comes along with it as these must win lines are inflated which is certainly the case here. Oakland has lost three straight games by double-digits and five straight overall so it may seem like the Raiders have quit but that is not the case. They have actually won the yardage battle in two of the five losses and the worse they have been outgained by is 79 total yards. And let's face it, this is the Denver game and Oakland would like nothing more than to play spoiler. Despite a 4-11 record, Oakland is getting outgained by less than 20 ypg and it should have no issues on offense facing a struggling and injured Broncos stop unit. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (326) Oakland Raiders
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12-29-13 | NY Jets +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show |
Miami played its worst game of the season last week in Buffalo as its anemic offense could not get anything going. Now the Dolphins are in a must win situation but we cannot forget that must wins do not always translate into victories. After last week, the Dolphins are being asked to win by a touchdown which is too much to ask for, especially in a divisional game where the teams are separated by just one game in the standings. The Jets have not layed well on the road this season, going just 1-6 and while I do not typically play road revenge, I am making an exception here, at least partially. Motivation is a huge part of Week 17 in the NFL and with the Jets out of the playoffs, many will write them off here thinking the towel has been thrown in. However, the Jets were embarrassed at home against Miami in the beginning of December as they lost 23-3 and got outgained 453-177. These teams hate each other already so there is no way the Jets lay down here, especially with the fact that a win gets them to .500 for the season which is a significant accomplishment. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) New York Jets
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12-28-13 | Cincinnati v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
Many will wonder why a 6-6 team is favored over a 9-3 team but North Carolina being favored should give you the answer that it is simply a better team. The Tar Heels came on strong after a 1-5 start to win five of their last six games, the only loss coming by just two points to 10-2 Duke. The schedule was difficult in that all six losses came against teams playing in bowl games and those six teams had an average of nine wins each. It will be argued that Cincinnati falls into that category, which it clearly does but the Bearcats are the worst 9-3 team in the nation. They defeated just one team with a winning record, 8-4 Houston, and currently have the 119th ranked schedule in the nation, the worst ranking in the horrible AAC. While it isn't a home game, North Carolina will have the hometown crowd on its side with this game being played in Nashville and the motivation for the Bearcats may be slim considering they played in this bowl game last season and won it so do they really care to be here? North Carolina quarterback Bryn Renner is out for this game but he missed the second half of the season and that is when the offense turned it around behind Marquise Williams, who finished with a 14-6 TD-INT ratio and is the team's leading rusher. The Tar Heels are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and with the numerous factors on their side, they come away with a comfortable victory. 10* (226) North Carolina Tar Heels
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12-27-13 | Washington -3 v. BYU | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
As you've heard a few times, motivation is a big part in these bowl games and at first glance, one may thing that Washington will be lacking that motivation after head coach Steve Sarkisian left to become the head coach at USC. Taking over is interim coach Marques Tuiasosopo and he is a former Washington player which is a huge factor as he will be ready and his players will be more than ready as well. Running back Bishop Sankey said that the team had to bounce back from the initial impact of Sarkisian's announcement but having Tuiasosopo there helped cushion the blow. "At first, some of the players were in shock," Sankey said. "But Coach Tui (Tuiasosopo) is a great coach who has done a lot for this program. We have a 100 percent trust in him and the coaches who are still here. We're excited to play this game. Once we started practicing, it didn't have the impact we thought it would. It's more important for us to come together with half the coaching staff. We need to come together and play as one." BYU is playing another tough opponent so it will be ready but as long as the Huskies play at a 100 percent, they are on a different level and should be able to win easily. Their only four losses were against UCLA, Arizona St., Oregon and Stanford, all of which were legitimate Pac 12 Championship candidates. 10* (221) Washington Huskies
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland UNDER 62.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
The further along we get into bowl season, the closer we take a look at unders so the simple reason that offenses are not as sharp as the rest period becomes longer and I think that will be the case here. Marshall boasts one of the best offenses, led by one of the best quarterbacks in Rakeem Cato, in the country but could have some trouble against the Terrapins which hail from the stronger conference and are virtually playing a home game. Maryland prefers to run the ball with quarterback C.J. Brown which can potentially keep the clock running. This is the highest total that the Terrapins have seen in any game this season against an FBS opponent so there is plenty of value there. They have gone over in three straight games while Marshall has gone over the total in seven straight games, again giving us value because of the inflated number. Maryland is 21-9 to the under in its last 30 games after scoring 37 or more points last time out while Marshall is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 nonconference games. Going back to the point about offenses coming in rusty the longer time off they had has proven to be profitable as in the In post-Christmas, pre-New Year's bowl games the past three years, the under is 34-26 which isn't overwhelming but the higher the total, the better the chances. Look for a lower than expected scoring game on Friday afternoon. 10* Under (217) Marshall Thundering Herd/(218) Maryland Terrapins
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -4 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 35 m | Show |
This line may seem high to some considering a non-BCS conference is favored over a BCS conference but I think this line is way too low. Bowling Green ended up winning the MAC Championship by destroying Northern Illinois and denying the Huskies a second straight BCS bowl bid. The Falcons are riding a five-game winning streak and it has been utter domination as they have outgained their opponents by an average of 275.2 ypg over that stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped and I don't see Pittsburgh doing anything about it either. The Panthers limp into the postseason on a 3-5 run and even those wins are unimpressive as they were outgained in all three victories. While I expect the Pittsburgh defense to get lit up, the offense will have a tough time keeping up as it is ranked 102nd in total offense while Bowling Green is fifth in the nation in scoring defense and second in redzone defense. The Falcons are without head coach Dave Clawson nit motivation will not be an issue as special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as interim head coach and will be tasked with leading the program to its first bowl win since beating Memphis in the 2004 GMAC Bowl. Here we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 85-38 ATS (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (214) Bowling Green Falcons
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12-24-13 | Oregon State -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The Beavers and Broncos kick off in Hawaii on Christmas Eve in hopes of trying to turn around their respective disappointing seasons. After losing the season opener to Eastern Washington, Oregon St. won six straight games but then closed out the season with five consecutive losses. Boise St. meanwhile comes in at 8-4 and it is the first season it has lost more than three games since 2005. So something has to give and the feeling here is that the Beavers step up as their offense will be near impossible to stop. Additionally, the Broncos are unstable at the coaching spot with Chris Peterson no longer here as linebackers coach Bob Gregory will lead the team on Tuesday. It will be important for Oregon St. to take care of the ball as it is minus-9 in turnover margin over the last four games which has been the main reason they are stuck in the losing skid. The Beavers are ranked third in passing offense while Boise St. is ranked 90th in passing defense and they have flourished in the past in these matchups as they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games away from home against defenses allowing a 62 percent or worse completion rate. Additionally, Boise St. is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against teams allowing 425 or more ypg while Oregon St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (211) Oregon St. Beavers
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
With the Seahawks stunning loss on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes pretty important for the 49ers. San Francisco is just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the NFC West and they have to travel there next week to face the Cardinals. That makes this a must win game for San Francisco but must wins do not always correlate into actual wins and in this case, we have seen a significant line shift from the opener as San Francisco is now over a two-touchdown favorite. The Falcons season has been done for a long time so while they could pack this one in, I expect them to not sit down and a lot of that is due to experience the other way. So far this season, the Falcons have done well in continuing to play hard despite having been eliminated from the playoffs. They are just 2-2 over their last four games but the two losses have been by just a combined five points. Last season, in a game in which they had nothing to play for, they put forth one of their worst performances of the season as they had already locked up the top seed in the NFC for the playoffs they lost to a 7-9 Tampa Bay team 22-17 at the Georgia Dome. This is a great opportunity to close the season with a big victory and hosting Carolina next week, playing the role of spoiler is the last remaining goal. I rarely play road revenge and I am not basing this one on that but there is no doubt that Atlanta players will step it up and try to make up for their home loss last season in the playoffs. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (131) Atlanta Falcons
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
We played against the Eagles last week in Minnesota as they had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 48-30 loss. Philadelphia still sits atop the NFC East at 8-6, one game ahead of the Cowboys after they blew a big lead against Green Bay and lost. There is an interesting dynamic playing out here since the Eagles and Cowboys meet in the final week of the regular season next week. Should Dallas lose against Washington earlier in the day, the Eagles could clinch the division with a victory. Should the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless as far as the NFC East goes because that would make the winner of next week's game the champ. Does that mean Philadelphia sits down should Dallas win? Absolutely not and don't let the talking heads tell you otherwise. A victory over the Bears would put Philadelphia into the third seed in the NFC and that means it would avoid a trip to Seattle in the second round which is always big. Obviously, this game means a lot for the Bears as well but coming off two straight wins, I am expecting a reversal of the good fortunes here. Chicago is just 5-6 since opening the season 3-0 including going 2-4 in its last six road games. The Eagles have not been a great team at home this season, going 3-4 but they have won two straight and three of their last four and this is the last regular season home game of the year. Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. Additionally, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-63 ATS (63.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
The Patriots suffered a brutal loss last week at Miami as they had a chance to win the game but Tom Brady got intercepted in the endzone in the final seconds. New England wasted a golden opportunity to take charge of the AFC after Denver lost on Thursday now it needs to take care of its own business and get some help along the way. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win or a Miami loss and they will know the Dolphins outcome around kickoff but that will not dictate how they play out this game and they still have a chance at home field throughout the playoffs and the one thing it cannot to do to attain that is lose. New England fell to 3-4 on the road but it is in great position here to even that record up. The Ravens won in Detroit Monday night to keep the pressure on Cincinnati in the AFC North. Baltimore can actually clinch a playoff berth with a win here coupled with losses by the Dolphins and Chargers but taking care of their own part will be difficult enough. The Ravens have won four straight games but the last three have been by a combined seven points and they were outgained in all three of those on top of it. At 6-1 at home, they continue to have one of the best home fields in football but Baltimore will have trouble keeping up here. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a road loss and they fall into a situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Even better, Brady is 17-3 ATS in his 20 games coming off a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. 10* (129) New England Patriots
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
I have played against the Saints in each of their last five road games and we have cashed a ticket each time as New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the highway, losing four of those outright. We are bucking that trend this week however as in each of the past instances, the Saints were in horrible spots, whether it be them or their opponent being in a great spot but that is not the case this week. This is the third time this season that New Orleans is playing consecutive road games but the first two times, it won the first game so this marks the first time this season that it will be on the road following a road loss and New Orleans is 5-2 in the Sean Payton era in the second game of such a scenario. Carolina has suffered one loss in its last 10 games and that was a 31-13 defeat at New Orleans two weeks ago. This puts the Panthers in a major revenge spot and the public will be lining up behind them. Admittedly, I thought Carolina was very overrated midway through the season but it proved me wrong with impressive wins over San Francisco and New England in consecutive weeks but at this stage of the season we are simply backing the better team with the better coach in the role of an underdog. While the Saints lost by nine points last week, they outgained the Rams 432-302 as turnovers were the difference. In their four losses, the Saints are -7 in turnover margin so taking care of the ball here is key which I think they accomplish. New Orleans is 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton coming off a road loss and it falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 69 h 50 m | Show |
The Bengals had a chance to get closer to a division title but they fell behind early and big to the Steelers and were unable to recover. Cincinnati had a couple late drives for touchdowns to make the game look more respectable to it was pretty much over after three quarters. Now the Bengals return home and they can clinch the AFC North division title by beating the Vikings and watching Baltimore lose or tie against the Patriots. Playing at home has been different than the road as the Bengals are 6-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16 ppg. While next week's game against Baltimore may seem like the big one, this is the big one as far as Cincinnati is concerned as it does not want to division to come down to the final regular season game. We won with Minnesota last week as it took care of the Eagles without much of a problem. The Vikings took an early 7-0 lead and never trailed which gave them a much needed win following three straight games they could have won but ended up going 1-1-1. That victory also gave them three straight wins at home but like the Bengals, the road has not been as kind as Minnesota is 0-6-1 on the highway as has been outscored by close to eight ppg. Coming off that huge home win, I expect a big letdown this week. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog while the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-21-13 | Buffalo +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 23 m | Show |
After a slow start to the season which included a loss against Eastern Illinois of the FCS, San Diego St. caught fire, winning seven of eight games following a 0-3 start. The Aztecs could not close the season with a win though as it got hammered in UNLV 45-19 so any momentum gained was lost. Three of their seven wins came in overtime so the 7-5 overall record can be considered a little skewed as well. Buffalo was making a march to the MAC Championship as it reeled off seven straight wins after opening the season with losses against Ohio St. and Baylor. The Bulls ended up dropping two of their last three games and were shipped to Idaho for the postseason but that is actually a big advantage for them here. They are used to the cold weather where San Diego St. is not and that factors in to the Bulls possessing the better defense and the better running game. Running back Branden Oliver rushed for 1,421 yards and 15 touchdowns while Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack finished second in Butkus Award voting. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while going 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games against teams who give up 31 or more ppg. 10* (205) Buffalo Bulls
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
Bowl season kicks off Saturday with a game that could be one of the highest scoring games in the entire bowl season should things go along as expected. Both teams come in with potent offenses and horrible defenses and it will be the individual unit matchups that will show the biggest disparities. Washington St. is ranked fourth in the nation in passing offense, averaging 364.5 ypg while the Rams passing defense is ranked 109th in the country, allowing 265.4 ypg through the air. On the other side, Colorado St. is ranked 31st in rushing offense and stopping the run was a Cougars downfall as they are 84th in rushing defense, allowing 184 ypg on 4.4 ypc. The Rams possess one of the best running backs in the nation in Kapri Bibbs as he leads the nation with 28 touchdowns and he is sixth with 1,572 rushing yards. He is very capable of putting up big games as proven by his 312 yards rushing against Nevada and 291 yards against New Mexico. The Cougars are even worse in passing defense so if they try and crown the box to stop Bibbs, quarterback Garrett Grayson can tear them apart as he has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his last nine games. 10* Over (201) Colorado St. Rams/(202) Washington St. Cougars
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 50.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Ravens/Lions under here as we waited this one out and as expected, the total has continued to rise as it is now 50 as of Monday morning. It has gone up two to three and half points across the board and it is a number I feel was too big to begin with. Both teams are coming off high scoring games and each has gone over in two straight games which is helping us with this number being as high as it is. The Ravens are coming off that improbable finish last week where five touchdown were scored in just over he final two minutes to turn a 12-7 game into a 39-26 final. Meanwhile Detroit and Philadelphia put up 54 points in a snowstorm despite just eight points scored in the first half. These games came after both teams surpassed the number on Thanksgiving and I expect to see a much lower scoring game here with the defenses playing a big part with playoff implications on the line for both sides. The under is 7-3 in the Ravens last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 4-1 in the Lions last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* Under (333) Baltimore Ravens/(334) Detroit Lions
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers were a few inches away from an improbable come-from-behind win against Miami last week and now at 5-8, it is really must win time. Winning out is now the only possibility and even at 8-8, nothing is guaranteed as Baltimore has the upper hand in the AFC as a win this week puts Pittsburgh in a tough spot but that game is not until Monday so the Steelers will be fully focused here. A divisional rivalry only adds to it as Pittsburgh will be out to make up for the 20-10 loss in Cincinnati in Week Two. The Steelers troubles have been on the road for the most part as they are 3-3 at home but 3-1 after a 0-2 start. Cincinnati has won and covered three straight games and a win this week would clinch the AFC North along with a Baltimore loss so the Bengals will not be laying down. The issue is that they are a different team on the road as they are 3-4 compared to a perfect 6-0 at home. Cincinnati lost two of those road games in overtime so the record could be better but at the same time, it also won a game in overtime and won another by three points against the Lions. We won with the Bengals in their last road game at San Diego but the Chargers were coming off a huge win Kansas City while the Bengals were coming off a bye so the situation was completely different to this week. The Steelers fall into a superb contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1983. Pittsburgh is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
The Eagles won their fifth straight game last week in a snowstorm at home as they defeated the Lions 34-20. They have covered four of those and now the public is backing them to keep the streak going to this is no easy task on the road in Minnesota. Philadelphia has not been on the road in a month as it has had three straight home games along with a bye in there as well. Granted, the Eagles have won four straight road games and are 5-1 on the highway this season but now they come in being favored by the most points on the highway this season. The Vikings lost a crazy game in Baltimore last week as they were up 12-7 with just over two minutes left and then the fireworks took off as there were five touchdown scored in the final 2:05 including the game winner by the Ravens with four seconds remaining. It was a tough loss to take and with Leslie Frasier on the chopping block, players are not going to quit but continue to play hard for jobs for next season. Minnesota has won its last two games at home and it is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown this season. Minnesota falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Also, the Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing their last game on the road and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games while the Eagles are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Look for Minnesota to keep this one close and an outright win is certainly not out of the question. 10* (324) Minnesota Vikings
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12-14-13 | Army +13 v. Navy | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 15 m | Show |
Can Army finally break through in this series, considered the greatest rivalry in college football by some yet it has not looked like it over the last decade plus. The Midshipmen have won 11 in a row in the series, the most by either side in 114 meetings between the service academy rivals. Navy comes in with a three-game winning streak while Army is saddled with a four-game losing streak so many expect a similar outcome but this year is a little bit different. Preparation for this year's game against Army presents an unprecedented challenge for the Midshipmen because for the first time final exams are taking place in the week leading up to the game's kickoff Saturday afternoon. "This week is unique preparing for our biggest game and having finals," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said. "This is hard. I mean we've been planning for a couple weeks now trying to get in practice times that don't conflict with any exams. In all my 16 years of being here, this is the hardest we're going to have, schedule-wise, getting ready for Army." Meanwhile, the Army players are playing for head coach Rich Ellerson's job as he is 20-40 in five seasons including three seasons of three wins or less so a win here could be the only way to save his job. It is not out of the question either. Army is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 42 points or more in its last game and we have two situations on our side here. First, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more ypc last game. This situation is 35-13 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1992. Also, we play on teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (303) Army Black Knights
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 56.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
We won with the under in this matchup in Week 10 and we will be going with the under in this rematch. Obviously betting a Denver under can be a bit unnerving considering it is 11-2 to the over this season but that is where the value comes into play. The Broncos have gone over the total in each of their last three games and no surprise that this number is the highest of them all. This offense has been pretty much unstoppable this season as Denver is first in both total offense and scoring offense and while the Chargers defense has not been very strong, the Broncos were held to their lowest yardage total of the season in the first meeting. Additionally, San Diego is 11th in the NFL in scoring defense. San Diego is coming off a high scoring game as well as its game with the Giants totaled 51 points so that also is helping us out this week. The Chargers have actually gone under in six of their last nine games after opening the season 3-1 to the over. San Diego has been unable to put any offensive consistency together as they have scored 30 or more points four times but the first three times they did that this season, they have followed it up with 17, 17 and 10 points in the next game. The Chargers are 29-15 to the under in their last 44 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more and they are 9-3 to the under in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last time out. Denver meanwhile falls into a great situation where we play on the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 (7703 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (301) San Diego Chargers/(302) Denver Broncos
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
With Green Bay winning and Detroit losing, the Bears know this is a must win game for them to hang around in the NFC North race. After losing their last two games, both on the road, Chicago is now 6-6 on the season and a win puts it into a tie with Detroit for first place. Making it more important is that the Bears lost both meetings with the Lions and when they face Green bay in the season finale, the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback. In-between are two more road games so Chicago needs to take care of business at home. The Bears have been a money-burning team of late as they have lost four straight against the number and are 1-8 ATS over their last nine games which is going to keep the public off from playing them and is helping us with a good number this week. The Cowboys meanwhile have won two straight games and are now a half game back of the Eagles after their win yesterday over the Lions. That obviously makes this a big game for them as well but they are just 2-4 on the road this season and going back, they are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 road games coming off a non-conference game. Defensively, Dallas is allowing over 450 ypg on the road and Chicago has an offense that will take advantage. Dallas is ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 294.9 ypg and that goes up to over 300 ypg on the road so Chicago's sixth-ranked passing attack should be able to light it up. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in the second half of the season against teams averaging or more 375 ypg and the Bears fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (160) Chicago Bears
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night at Seattle. It is not easy for any team to win there, let alone compete, so we cannot take that loss too much into consideration. Plus New Orleans has always taken a step down when going on the road but now the Saints are back home, coming off a loss and first place in the NFC South on the line. This is where this team shines. New Orleans is 6-0 at home and has dominated for the most part, winning those games by an average of 17.4 ppg. Granted, this will be one of the toughest test but knowing they have to go to Carolina in two weeks, they will take this game as a must win. Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL as it has won eight straight games and possibly even more impressive for our concerns, it covered seven of those. The linesmakers seemed to have finally caught up though as the Panthers are getting a short number in New Orleans with a lot of that based on the recent performance as well as the Saints debacle in Seattle. Four of Carolina's wins during the streak have come on the road but only one of those was a quality win, which came at San Francisco. The atmosphere will be too much for them here in primetime. The Saints are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites including 12-2 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or less. Also, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a road loss including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Carolina has owned this series when playing on the road, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to New Orleans but that streak, along with the current winning streak, comes to a crashing halt Sunday night. 10* (142) New Orleans Saints
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