While it is hard to put a team as good as Denver in a letdown situation, this is certainly as close as it gets as the Broncos are coming off three huge games, two against the Chiefs and one against the Patriots, so now is the time to take a breath. On top of that, Denver has a Thursday night divisional game up next against the Chargers. Denver has been close to unstoppable at home but this could be the biggest test for the Broncos yet and it isn't only because of the opposition. The weather forecast looks pretty dismal as temperatures probably won't get out of the teens and we all know how Peyton Manning struggles in the cold. And if you didn't know, he does. Denver is a game clear of Kansas City in the AFC but it pretty much amounts to a three-game lead based on the season sweep so for the Chiefs to overtake the Broncos, it will take a minor miracle. Tennessee is coming off a loss against the Colts which was its third in four games but the playoffs are not out of the question as the Titans are just a game behind Miami and Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot. The good news is that this is the toughest remaining test of the season so a win here could feasibly mean winning out which would likely be good enough for a possible playoff berth. So we know they will be playing hard and we are more concerned about staying within this generous number. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian situation as well as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 79-39 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (149) Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh's playoff hopes took a big hit last week after it lost on Thanksgiving night at Baltimore although it was a valiant comeback effort. The Steelers divisional hopes are all but shot but they are still fighting for the playoffs and a win here would be a huge step. They trail the Dolphins and Ravens by one game for the second Wild Card spot so a win here would put it a game back of Baltimore and even though it would be tied with Miami, the tiebreaker is theirs due to the head-to-head win. The road has been tough for the Steelers as they are 2-5 but they have won three straight games at home while covering all of those as well. Pittsburgh has covered four straight overall and while that is a streak I tend to go against, the situation is a good one and we are actually getting line value in my opinion. Miami is coming off a blowout win against the reeling Jets but this team has been very inconsistent. The Dolphins opened the season 3-0 but they have gone 3-6 since then and have not won consecutive games since September. Of their 12 games, they have been outgained eight times and while they are 3-3 on the road, they are 1-3 in their last four road games. The Steelers fall into a phenomenal league-wide situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Steelers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games while Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. 10* (146) Pittsburgh Steelers

The run that the Redskins had last season will not be replicated and they will be missing pout on the playoffs after coming into the season as one of the favorites to win the NFC East. They have dropped four straight games to fall to 3-9 but I like them in this particular spot as teams that are playing their third straight home game and failed to win and cover the first two tend to do a great job in getting it done in the third game. The worst part about the four-game losing streak is that Washington has won the yardage battle in three of those games as it has been miscues that have cost them. Now they have the chance to play spoiler and even though the playoffs may now be a pipedream, they have not tossed in the towel. Kansas City is coming off its second loss to Denver in three weeks and its third loss overall. I felt we were getting value on the Chiefs last week but after jumping ahead 21-7, they fell apart when it mattered the most. After three straight divisional games and with the fifth seed in the AFC Playoffs all but locked up, I see a huge letdown this week. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and while Andy Reid is 3-0 so far this season against his former divisional foes, I do not see it happening again here. The Chiefs are 9-3 but are actually getting outgained on the season by 29 ypg while Washington, despite being 3-9, is actually outgaining its opponents by 12.1 ypg. So we have two teams with skewed records and the better team statistically is getting points at home. Here we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Washington Redskins

We played against Fresno St. last week and it went into San Jose St. and lost thus crashing its BCS bowl aspirations. The easy thinking is that the Bulldogs bounce back with a big win this week and win the MWC Championship but I'm not buying it. They return home where they are 6-0 this season and have blown out most of those teams but those wins have come against no one special with UNLV being the best of the bunch. They defeated Boise St. and Rutgers by just one point each so those could have gone either way. The fact Fresno St. allowed 62 points last week is a major concern. Once Utah St. lost quarterback Chuckie Keeton midway through the season against BYU, many thought the Aggies were toast but Darell Garretson has been solid, going 5-0 as a starter while throwing for 1,117 yards and nine touchdowns and just four picks. The thing that holds the Aggies together is its defense as they have allowed more than 10 points only once since the loss against Boise St., giving up an average of just 10.2 ppg over their last five games. Fresno St. has owned this series with five straight wins but they have not played since 2011 so that can be thrown out the door. The Aggies fall into a great situation where we play on road teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1992. Utah St. is 7-0 ATS in it last seven games after allowing nine points or less last game while going 8-1 ATS following a road win. The Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a conference loss as a double-digit favorite. 10* (129) Utah St. Aggies

Ohio St. controls its own destiny for a trip to the BCS Championship as it currently sits at number two. A win and the Buckeyes are in but a loss and a new debate begins. This is no sure thing for Ohio St. as it really doesn't have many big wins on the schedule as victories over Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan were good but none were dominant and two of those came at home. Additionally, the Buckeyes were outgained in two of those and now they will face the best defense they have seen all season. The Spartans come in riding an eight-game winning streak and while it can be argued their wins have not been that great either, they have been outgained only once all season and that was by only 31 yards at Nebraska. The lone loss came this season at Notre Dame, a team that has had Michigan St.'s number over the years, and that was by only four points so the Spartans could easily be coming in with an undefeated record here as well. As mentioned, the Spartans defense is one of the best around while the Buckeyes have struggled. They have allowed at least 420 yards in their past three games including giving up 603 yards to Michigan last week and that is a huge concern. Michigan St.'s offense has been inconsistent but has improved over the second half of the season under quarterback Connor Cook. I see a lot of success from the Spartans here. Michigan St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home when playing against a team with a winning record while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing six points or less last game. Is an upset possible here? You bet it is. 10* (128) Michigan St. Spartans

Despite Stanford having the better overall record and a higher BCS ranking, Arizona St. gets to host the Pac 12 Championship thanks to a better record in the conference as the Sun Devils went 8-1 while Stanford finished 7-2. That one loss came against the Cardinal so they will not only out for revenge but to make their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1996. Stanford hammered Arizona St. in that first meeting 42-28 but it was not that close as the Cardinal took their foot off the gas. They held the Sun Devils to a season-low 50 yards on the ground and while that may seem like an issue here, this is a difference Sun Devils team, one that has improved immensely since then. Starting running back Marion Grice will be out for this game but it should not be an issue as D.J. Foster is coming off a career night in place of the injured Grice against Arizona as he ran for a career-high 124 yards and two touchdowns. I like the fact this second meeting is in Arizona St. where the Sun Devils are a perfect 7-0 this season with five of those wins coming against bowl eligible teams. Stanford meanwhile is 3-2 on the road with losses at Utah and USC and the difference is in the redzone. At home the Cardinal are flawless in the red zone, as they have scored points all 29 times but on the road it's a different story however, as they have only scored on 11 of 16 trips inside the redzone. Additionally, Arizona St. is +15 in turnovers at home while Stanford is -4 in turnover margin on the road. All of this spells to a big Arizona St. home win and a coveted trip to the Rose Bowl. 10* (126) Arizona St. Sun Devils

We lost with Rutgers last week as it put up a dud in Connecticut and still sits a game out of a possible bowl berth. Turnovers were the difference as the Scarlet Knights lost that battle 3-0 and that was the ultimate difference. A win here and Rutgers will be playing in the postseason with a likely destination of either the Compass Bowl or the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, which are fifth and sixth, respectively, in the American Athletic Conference pecking order. The Scarlet Knights are clearly playing their worst of the season but a 4-2 record at home is nothing horrible, especially when the two losses came against teams that will be in a bowl game, Cincinnati and Houston. Things get a lot easier in their last home contest of the season. The Bulls are a lowly 2-9 and have lost five straight but are coming off arguably their best performance of the season in a 23-20 loss to 10-1 UCF. While South Florida can take some positives from that game, that was clearly their bowl game as it was their biggest rival and they came up just short which I think will turn more into a letdown spot than a positive spin on it. The Bulls are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win while Rutgers is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. The Scarlet Knights have covered six straight games in this series, five of which were outright wins as underdogs, and with what is at stake this week, that unblemished record should continue. 10* (110) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

While there are a lot of big conference championship games on Saturday, this one seems to be the most overlooked yet it could be the most entertaining. Looking at this logically, the two divisional winners meet for the C-USA Championship and it is hosted by the team that enters the game with the highest BCS ranking. While Marshall did receive votes in each of the two human polls, the value of those votes was not significant enough to offset the relative strength of Rice in the computer polls. In this case, that team is Rice so the Owls are the better team yet are getting points on their home field. Marshall and Rice come in with identical records and the Owls have played a slightly tougher schedule. Rice is 5-0 at home this season and was the favorite in every one of those games so the fact that it is actually a home underdog here is perplexing as it has been flying under the radar all season. Rice brought back 19 starters from last season and have won 14 of their last 17 games so it is no fluke that the Owls are here. Granted, they did limp into the championship with a couple of narrow wins while Marshall has won its last five games by double-digits but three of those were at home and the two wins came against Tulsa and Florida International, which are a combined 4-20. Rice is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while the Thundering Herd are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Rice Owls

I am not one to believe that there is corruption in college football but there are times it makes you think that games could be shaded a particular way. The MAC is a classic example. Last year, Kent St. entered the MAC Championship at 11-1 and had the upper hand at a BCS bowl game which means a lot of money for the conference. It was rather puzzling that the referees did not call a single penalty on the Golden Flashes in that game which leads you to believe that teams that need to win get the benefit of most calls but I do not expect that to happen this season. Even though the Huskies did end up in a BCS bowl last season because of that win, Bowling Green will not go with a win so you know who the conference is rooting for. But will it happen again? Both of these team have been cruising along the last few games although Northern Illinois has looked more susceptible over the last couple games. One big reason for that is because the Huskies two top receivers have been out and they are now back and playing in a controlled environment so Northern Illinois can get back to its balanced ways. That can be a scary thing but the Huskies will be facing two things they have not seen this year and that is a defense and a vertical passing game that Bowling Green possesses. The Falcons are ranked seventh in total defense, fourth in passing defense and fifth in scoring defense while on the other side, they will be able to stretch the field against a very suspect Huskies passing defense. We are finally starting to see some line movement as the Huskies are a huge majority play and I would wait for this until later in the week as we should catch an even bigger number. 10* (105) Bowling Green Falcons

Both Houston and Jacksonville were involved in very high scoring games this past Sunday as the Texans and Patriots put up 65 points while the Jaguars and Browns put up 60 points. I feel that those results coupled with both teams riding a 4-1 over run is giving us a lot of value on the under. The lone under in that stretch for both teams was when they faced each other two weeks ago and scored a mere 19 points. This series has been low scoring for the most part as four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total and I am expecting that to continue here once again. Despite being 2-10, Houston still has the third ranked defense in the NFL as turnovers have been absolutely killing them. Jacksonville is deal last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense and we can consider last week's outburst against the Browns an aberration. On the other side, the Houston offense is a mess and it has been horrible on the road all season. The Jaguars defense is nothing special but even they can slow down the Texans, similar to how they did in the first meeting two weeks ago. Plus many will be on the over simply because that is what is bet the most in these primetime games plus the over was a perfect 3-0 last Thursday. The under is 4-0 in Houston's last four road games against teams with a losing home record while the under is 11-3 in its last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. Meanwhile the under is 4-1 in the Jaguars last five home games against teams with a losing road record while the under is 9-0 in their last nine home games against conference opponents. Expect to see more of the same here. 10* Under (101) Houston Texans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Keg of Nails is on the line Thursday night in Cincinnati and I like the Bearcats to bring it back to them after Louisville won it back in overtime last season. This is a very big tradition and with the series no longer on the schedule, this is a big one to claim and I give a big edge to the home team. Early in the season, I felt that Cincinnati was a bit overrated based on its weak schedule and while that is still the case somewhat, I think that Louisville is even more overrated. The Bearcats have played the 132nd ranked schedule in the nation while Louisville has played the 116th ranked slate so there is very little difference there. The Cardinals have gotten all of the hype since before the season even started, thus creating overinflated numbers and we are still seeing it here despite two teams going in opposite directions. Cincinnati, which has won 16 of its last 18 home games while outscoring teams by an average of 23.4 ppg, is coming off back-to-back impressive offensive performances, totaling 1,192 yards in wins at Rutgers and Houston. Meanwhile. Louisville's offense has gone from averaging 495.3 ypg to 347.7 ypg in the last three games and two of those were at home with the third being played at woeful Connecticut. Cincinnati still has an outside shot at the automatic BCS bowl berth as a win here and a UCF loss could leapfrog it over the Knights based on tiebreakers while Louisville has no chance. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win while Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. 10* (104) Cincinnati Bearcats

This could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship as Seattle and New Orleans have the inside track of grabbing the two bye spots for the playoffs. The Seahawks are in better position as even a loss here keeps them two games ahead of the 49ers in the NFC West while New Orleans is just a half-game up on Carolina in the NFC South. That makes this a bigger game for New Orleans but that is not something we will be taking into consideration here. The Saints are a powerful team no doubt but they are a different team on the road as they have struggled for the most part in all five road games this season. The Seahawks meanwhile have one of, if not the best, home field advantages in all of football and we are getting a very solid number here in my opinion. This line has dropped since opening and the big reason is due to the Seattle secondary missing Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner but it will be fine as the Saints best pass catchers are not even receivers. The defense excels inside as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play on screen passes in the NFL the last two seasons. The Seahawks have won 13 straight games at home dating to last season and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following a win while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a home win. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. 10* (450) Seattle Seahawks

Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We played against Kansas City last week and while the Chiefs put up a fight against the Chargers, the defense could not make the stops when needed. While Denver is obviously a lot better than San Diego, Kansas City goes from home favorite to home underdog and that is a spot I like to play because it is a big line swing in the span of just one week. The Broncos are coming off a devastating loss against the Patriots as they blew a 24-0 lead and eventually lost in overtime. That is a tough defeat to recover from. While I have been anti-Chiefs most of the season, I think they are getting a lot of value here and one of the big reasons is that they are getting close to the same amount of points at home than they did on the road just two weeks ago. Here we play on home underdogs or pick after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 92-48 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (428) Kansas City Chiefs

Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We won with both of those teams last week as the 49ers easily got past the Redskins on Monday night while the Rams blew out the Bears last Sunday. San Francisco snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory and served as a wakeup call. The 49ers now head back home to bounce back from their last home game, a loss against Carolina three weeks ago. This late in the season, San Francisco has to continue to keep winning to keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Rams have been inconsistent this season but they are riding a two-game winning streaks with both victories being blowouts. Or were they? The scoreboard shows 30 and 21 points victories but St. Louis was outgained both times as it took advantage of turnovers and special teams edges. I do not expect those good fortunes to continue for a third straight game. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 15 or fewer points in their previous game and I expect that defensive prowess to continue again. 10* (442) San Francisco 49ers

Writeups will be truncated this weekend. After playing against the Bears last week, we will be backing them here this week. They were in a very tough spot last week coming off an overtime win at home over Baltimore the previous week and facing a Rams team coming off their bye week. While it is pretty early to call games must wins, this is about as close as you can get to a must win game at the three-quarter mark of the season. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games as well so it has at least played well following a loss. Minnesota played Green Bay to a tie last week on the road but it felt like a loss as the Vikings blew a big lead in regulation. It has been a tough season for Minnesota which is 2-8-1 and even though this is a divisional rivalry game, I cannot see this team putting forth another strong effort in consecutive weeks as we have yet to see it this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a cover and even though we are not getting a number of points, I don't think we will even need them as a big Chicago victory is what I see taking place. 10* (433) Chicago Bears

This is the final chance for Hawaii to pick up a win this season and it looks to be the best chance it has had. The Warriors are 0-11 and the schedule has been extremely tough as all but three teams will be going to bowl games and two of those three teams can qualify for a bowl games with wins this weekend. Despite a 0-5 record at home, Hawaii has been very competitive as three of the five losses have been by a touchdown or less and all five games have been against teams with .500 or better records. That is not the case for Army as it is 3-7 and if the distraction of playing in Hawaii is not bad enough, its biggest game of the season is in two weeks against Navy. The Black Knights are coming off a double bye as well. Only two of the wins have come against FBS teams and while Hawaii has a worse record than both of those teams, it is still the better team. This is the first time Hawaii has been favored all season and while many will be going against that, the Warriors are favored for a reason. Additionally, Hawaii falls into a great situation where we play on home favorites that are allowing 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440. This situation is 58-30 ATS (65.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Army is 0-8 ATS in true road games over the last two seasons. 10* (424) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Rice nearly blew a chance to win the C-USA West Division as it went into UAB as a 17-point favorite and narrowly defeated the Blazers in overtime. Still, the Owls outgained UAB by 134 total yards so the game should not have been that close to begin with. Now with a win this Saturday, Rice would advance to its first appearance in the conference title game in its nine years as a member of C-USA. Undefeated at Rice Stadium this season, the Owls have won seven straight at home and has won five straight on Senior Day. Tulane has been the surprise of C-USA as it is 7-4 including a 5-2 mark in the conference. Before their 42-point win over UTEP in their last game, the Green Wave's first five wins against FBS foes were all by single digits and they were actually outgained in three of those. Additional, they were outgained in their win over Jackson St. of the FCS so while the winning is good, it has not been dominant and no doubt skewed. Give them credit for sure, but despite being three games over .500 on the season, they have been outgained by an average of 36.9 ypg. Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while Rice is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after playing their last game on the road. 10* (380) Rice Owls

This is a big rivalry and Colorado St. will be supremely motivated for this one as the Rams look to bring the Ram-Falcon Trophy to Fort Collins for the first time since 2005. They have six wins but because they are playing 13 games this season, they need seven to become bowl eligible which would be the first time since 2008. Additionally, a victory Saturday would give the Rams their first winning regular season record since 2005. they will be tough to stop as Colorado St. is on pace for the second-highest yardage in program history with 447.2 ypg. The Rams have scored 50 points three times which is pretty impressive considering the last time they scored 50 points in any game was back in 2003. That is bad news for Air Force which comes in with a 2-9 record, including 0-4 on the road and is allowing an average of 477.6 ypg which is 111th in the nation. The Falcons have owned this series with seven straight wins, the final six all coming by double-digits sop it shows how far this program has fallen based on the line. Air Force is just 2-6 ATS this season when underdogs by less than three touchdowns. Adding even more motivation for the Rams is the fact they were shut out at Utah St. last week and the last time they were held to fewer than double-digits, they exploded for 59 points the next game. Air Force is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games coming off a conference loss while the Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. 10* (396) Colorado St. Rams

It has been a rough ending to the season for Rutgers which is still trying to gain bowl eligibility. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of their last five games and outgained huge in the process but all four losses came against teams that have already qualified for the postseason. The schedule sets up well for Rutgers to get two wins prior to the bowl season and it should have issues doing so. A home game against South Florida is up next week. It has been a dreadful season for Connecticut but it is coming off its first win last week on the road at Temple. The game was tied late in the fourth quarter when the Huskies picked off a pass and ran it back 59 yards for a touchdown. That sets up a letdown position for this week and with another home game next week, there will be no end of the season motivation this Saturday. Connecticut is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win and Rutgers falls into a great situation where we play on road teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (361) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

A few weeks ago, this much anticipated game was starting to look like it was going to be a dud but now there is a lot on the line. Because of the severe dropoff between the AFC elite and second tier teams, the 5-6 record both teams possess have them right in the Wild Card hunt. Additionally, they are just game behind the Bengals in the AFC North. I however give Baltimore a significant edge here based on home field as not only is it at home, but it is the second straight home game while the Steelers are playing their second straight road game. After losing three straight games, the Ravens have won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming in overtime in Chicago. They are 4-1 at home this season and going back, the Ravens are 27-4 over their last 31 home games and while two of those have been within a span of just seven regular season games, they came against Denver and Green Bay with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers respectively behind center. After a 0-4 start, the Steelers have turned things around by going 5-2 over their last seven games including winning their last three games. Pittsburgh is just 2-4 away from home and while it defeated Baltimore in the first meeting this season, it has not swept the Ravens since 2008. The Ravens know they have to stack some wins in order to qualify for the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent since 1983. 10* (308) Baltimore Ravens

Following the Longhorns worst home loss in the Mack Brown Era, Texas looked to regroup during the bye week in preparation of a Thanksgiving Night showdown against the Red Raiders. Texas was riding a six-game winning streak prior to the loss and while most of those were against mediocre opposition, it is starting to look as through Texas Tech falls into that category. The Red Raiders blew through their first seven games but all of those wins came against teams that currently do not have a winning record. SMU is the only team that can get to a bowl game as it is sitting at 5-5. Texas Tech will move the ball and score, there is no doubt about that but Texas will play the ball control game as will have success in doing so. The Red Raiders have given up 277, 281, 291 and 340 rushing yards in their four losses to the Longhorns will be grinding it out all game and will be able to keep up. If it comes down to turnovers, that is a significant edge for Texas as the Red Raiders are minus-12 in turnover margin after giving the ball away 28 times throughout the season. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss while the Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Also, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after failing to cover the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 65-26 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Texas Longhorns

The Cowboys picked up a huge road win against the Giants on Sunday to maintain their tie with the Eagles in the NFC East. The last thing they want is to follow that up with a home loss on Thanksgiving and while they are clearly the better team in this matchup, the line is already taking that into effect. This is a rare occasion where Dallas had to play on the road prior to its Thanksgiving game but we saw a similar setup just two years ago when the Cowboys won a divisional game in Washington by a field goal and then came back home only to beat Miami by a point on Thanksgiving. This is one of the worst defenses they have put on the field in a while and that can keep Oakland hanging around within this big number. The Raiders lost a tough one at home against Tennessee to fall to 4-7 but because the 2nd Wild Card spot leaders are at 5-6, they are far from out of anything so this is a huge game for them as well. Expect a heavy dose of running as Dallas has allowed 169, 242 and 202 yards rushing in its last three games. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Oakland Raiders

A couple of struggling teams take the field tonight as San Francisco and Washington both look to end two-game slides. The 49ers were cruising along with five straight wins before losing to Carolina and New Orleans the last two weeks. The 49ers are beating the teams it needs to but is losing against the top teams as their four losses are against teams a combined 34-10 and the Redskins are not part of that group as they are 3-7 with a lot on the line tonight. Washington was in a similar situation last season when it was 3-7, won its final seven regular season games and made the playoffs. Whether or not a late push is in the cards again this season, the Redskins have confidence knowing this season is not over yet and that is a big deal. But they just are not playing well as two of their wins easily could have been losses and while the Monday night home underdog is always worth a look, it is just not the prudent play here. Here we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has been one of the top bounceback teams around, going 9-2 in their last 11 games following a defeat under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Also, San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (233) San Francisco 49ers

We lost a tough one with the Patriots on Monday night with the whole penalty flag fiasco but New England still would have had to have scored on one play so it was no guaranteed win anyway. I believe the loss actually helps us here as the Patriots are one angry bunch right now and will be out for some retribution. Sitting at 7-3, they are now just two games in front in the AFC East so they need to avoid consecutive losses which is something they have done in the past as New England is 31-5 in its 35 games following a loss under Bill Belichick since 2003. The Broncos are coming off a big win last week against Kansas City at home to take over first place in the NFC West with a rematch looming next week. The public absolutely loves this team, even more than the Patriots now, and I think they are a false favorite in this spot. While Denver plays in cold weather late in the season, Peyton Manning is not a fan of bad conditions and the weather forecast calls for horrible winter conditions and that no doubt favors the home team. While Tom Brady lost as an underdog last week, he is 7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. 10* (232) New England Patriots

The Colts had a huge come-from behind victory last week against the Texans on the road and now they hit the road once again, this time off to the west coast. At 7-3, Indianapolis has a three-game lead in the AFC South and it is looking in pretty good shape to take the division as no other team is stepping up at this point. This game means little. The Colts are 3-0 in the division and 5-2 in the conference and those are the records they need to be concerned with and not an out of conference game. They are the lowest ranked division team in the AFC and I think it is for very good reason. Arizona is 6-4 and playing well with three straight wins. Going back, the Cardinals are 6-3 since an opening week loss and those three defeats came against the Saints, 49ers and Seahawks, all of which are ranked within the top six. Arizona has been outgained only three time this season and sitting in a tie for the second Wild Card in the NFC, it needs to continue to take care of business at home. This is a much bigger game for the Cardinals. Oh an did I mention that current head coach Bruce Arians coached the Colts last season? He will have a game play ready to get the job done. 10* (28) Arizona Cardinals

Everyone is down on the Texans right now as rightfully so. They are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season as sitting at 2-8, their season is done. The question is have they quit? The simple answer is no. While they have lost eight out of ten games, they have outgained the opposition in eight out of ten games as well which shows they are performing well everywhere except for the scoreboard. Now, the scoreboard is the biggest factor obviously but cut down on turnovers and things will be different and that is what I expect here as Jacksonville has only 12 takeaways the entire season. The Jaguars have been playing well since returning from England by going 1-1 but that is an illusion. They have been outgained by 148 and 142 yards in those two games and on the season, they have won the yardage battle only once and that came by 12 yards in St. Louis. When looking at the combined total yardage differentials, the Jaguars are -113.6 ypg while Houston is +91.9 ypg and that is an enormous variance. The Texans need to take their frustrations out on someone and this looks to be the perfect spot with New England on deck. 10* (212) Houston Texans

We have played on Wyoming a couple times this year and while the starts were good, the Cowboys folded late. After a great start to the season, they have lost four straight games but now it is gut check time. At 4-6, the possibility of a bowl game is still there but Wyoming has to win its final two games. The last four losses have come against teams that are all .500 or better and now the Cowboys welcome 0-10 Hawaii and there is no reason they should not be able to name the score here. The Warriors are not only winless but are coming off a devastating overtime loss at home against San Diego St. as they blew three different touchdown leads throughout the game. They have been competitive at home pretty much all season but on the road, they have been outscored by an average of close to 20 ppg. The defense is atrocious and I do not see them putting up much of a fight here. This is the final home game of the season for the Cowboys as well while playing in 31 degree weather will only add to the home field edge. The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. 10* (158) Wyoming Cowboys

We won with Central Michigan last week and we will ride the Chippewas again this week as they continue their push to become bowl eligible. They defeated Western Michigan by five points but the game was and should not have been that close as Central Michigan lost the turnover battle 5-1 which definitely skewed the outcome. The Chippewas need to win their final two games of the season to reach six wins and while it may not be enough to get to a bowl, the chance is still there. Massachusetts has no doubt had a rough season as it is 1-9 following a close loss against Akron last week. That was the third straight home game ,and final home game of the season, for the Minutemen so they hit the road for the first time in over a month. The lone win this season came against 0-11 Miami and that came by just a touchdown at home. They have been outgained in every other game this season and overall are getting outgained by an average of 152.4 ypg. Central Michigan has played five of its last six games on the road so the fact it has hung around is impressive. The only two home games against FBS teams this year were against Northern Illinois and Toledo and we know how they have been. The Chippewas roll. 10* (154) Central Michigan Chippewas

Duke is coming off a monster win on Saturday as it upset Miami to move to 8-2 overall and 4-2 in the ACC. The Blue Devils control their own destiny in the Costal Division but it has been mostly a case of no team wanting to take control. Duke is certainly the biggest surprise of the ACC at this point but despite six straight wins overall, it has been outgained in each of the last three and after the last two taking place at home, the Blue Devils close the season with two straight road games. After suffering a devastating home loss against Miami in the final seconds, Wake Forest has gone from 4-3 to 4-6 after backing that up with two additional losses. The Demon Deacons got shut out in Syracuse and then got hammered at home against Florida St. The good news is that they had a bye week after the loss to the Seminoles to regroup and make a bowl push. They can become bowl eligible by winning out so that is a big motivator right there along with the fact this is the final home game of the season. Those two factors are enormous. Duke is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game while the Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. 10* (140) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

There is a common theme the last few weeks of the college football season and that is motivation. Here we have another example of a team striving for bowl eligibility and that is San Jose St. as at 5-5, it needs one more victory to become bowl eligible. The Spartans have dropped two straight games after winning four in a row and with games running out, this is the time. Making it even more of a big game is the fact that San Jose St. closes the season against undefeated Fresno St. so a loss here could certainly shut them out. Navy meanwhile has already gotten bowl eligible as it won last week against South Alabama to make it to six wins. The Midshipmen opened the season with a big upset win on the road at Indiana but since then, the home team has ruled the rest of the season, going a perfect 9-0 in Navy games. Navy is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg over the last three seasons while going 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a win by 17 or more points. The Spartans meanwhile are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (116) San Jose St. Spartans

As mentioned last week in some game-analysis, this time of year is about motivation as teams still have some things to be playing for, namely a chance to make it to a bowl game. One of those teams is UNLV which has not gone bowling since 2000 and after three straight years of winning just two games, the Rebels can match that combined win total with a victory here. At 5-5, the Rebels still have one more game reaming and even though it is at home, it is against 6-4 San Diego St. so this matchup certainly is better to come out on top. This has been a dreadful season for Air Force which will encounter its first losing regular season since 2006. This is the last home game of the season for the Falcons which can often get a team to try and win for the seniors but here it will not come into play as sometimes it is simply too late. The home field edge for Air Force is non-existent as it is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games here. UNLV used to be a no bet on the road but at 2-2, it knows how to win on the highway and coupled with a big motivational edge, the Rebels will stamp their postseason ticket on Thursday. 10* (113) UNLV Runnin' Rebels

It comes as no surprise that the public is betting the Saints hard despite being now favored by double-digits in some spots. New Orleans has won two straight games since losing in New York to the Jets and has a one game lead in the NFC South. Coming into the season, the obvious choice would have been Atlanta that was a game back but it has been a disaster of a season, thus the big number the Falcons are getting tonight. They have dropped four straight games while not covering any of those but three of those were on the road where they are 0-5 on the season. A 2-3 record at home is nothing to be proud of and while many believe Atlanta has given up, tonight is its Super Bowl as playing spoiler against hated New Orleans is the goal. With the playoffs no longer a possibility, playing the Falcons can only be done in certain situations and this is one of those as the Georgia Dome will be rocking. The Saints are coming off that emotional home win over the 49ers and now travel on a short week with a game at Seattle next Monday night so the situation is just as bad on their side. The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Atlanta Falcons

Despite the fact that close to 80 percent of the betting action in on Northern Illinois, the line has come down. Some call this a trap line but it is simply a reverse line movement and those are the moves we like to back. Obviously there is a lot at stake for Northern Illinois as a victory here sews up the MAC West which would send it to the MAC Championship and give the Huskies another shot at a quality win in trying to surpass Fresno St. in the BCS standings. This team is solid and has won 23 straight games in the MAC but this could finally be the one that does them in. Toledo jumped out to a 38-0 lead over Buffalo last week and while the final score was a lot closer than that, the Rockets took the foot off the pedal. There is a lot at stake also for Toledo as it can win the MAC West with a victory here and one next week against Akron while the Huskies would have to beat Western Michigan. It has just been announced that running back David Fluellen has been upgraded to probable and the one-two punch of him and Kareem Hunt, who has rushed for 100 yards in four straight games, will be tough to stop. Toledo is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games after allowing 37 or more points last game. 10* (106) Toledo Rockets

Ohio has been punched in the mouth the last two weeks, both on national television, so the Bobcats will be ready to take their frustrations out on an inferior Kent St. team. The Bobcats were outscored by a combined score of 79-3 against Buffalo and Bowling Green which combined are 14-6 including 10-2 in the conference so they take a big step down in class here. The Golden Flashes are 3-8 so there is no chance of postseason and they are coming off a win against 0-10 Miami-Ohio which halted a five-game losing streak. The only other victory against an FBS opponent was against Western Michigan which is currently 1-10 on the season. It is pretty clear that Kent St. has struggled against the better teams in the MAC and now it faces an angry Ohio team coming off consecutive losses and laying with revenge following a 28-6 loss last year to end the regular season. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and I expect a big win from them on Tuesday night. 10* (104) Ohio Bobcats

The Panthers pulled off a stunner last week when they went into San Francisco and defeated the 49ers which had won five in a row but are now clearly struggling. Carolina is now 6-3 and trails the Saints by a game and a half in the NFC South after winning and covering five straight games. With the exception of San Francisco, the wins have come against teams that are not going to make the playoffs and overall, the Panthers have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NFL and this is where they get tripped up. The Patriots have won two straight games and this is just the second time they have been underdogs this season. With Tom Brady looking to be finally on track and as an underdog coming off a bye week, this is a great spot for New England to move in front in the AFC East by three games. He was 23-of-33 for 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers and when starting, he is 17-7 ATS in the role of underdog. Additionally, the Patriots are 8-1 when he starts coming off a bye week while going 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games. 10* (429) New England Patriots

I bet against Denver twice in their last five games and we cashed in those games against Dallas and Indianapolis. I have yet to back the Broncos as even though they have been covering at a good clip, they have been overinflated. We will not be backing them in what I feel is a great price against a very overrated Kansas City team. Denver would essentially take over first place with a win and it knows that it heads to Kansas City in two weeks for a rematch. The Chiefs come in off their bye week which can be considered good or bad. They got to rest and get a little healthier which is a good thing but when you are riding a nine-game winning streak, the last thing you want to do is take a week off an kill all of that momentum but that is precisely what happened to Kansas City. The defense has led the way but there is no chance of stopping this Broncos defense at home after coming off its lowest offensive output of the season against the Chargers. Kansas City is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg while the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games against teams allowing 14 or fewer ppg. 10* (422) Denver Broncos

The 49ers burned us last week as they ended up losing at home 10-9 after jumping ahead of Carolina 9-0. Now they head to New Orleans where the Saints have looked unbeatable in what can be considered a must win game to avoid falling behind Seattle by three games in the NFC West. San Francisco had its five game winning streak snapped by the Panthers but they have been very solid coming off a loss, going 9-1 in their last 109 games following a defeat including a 3-0 record on the road and winning by a combined score of 82-19. That basically says a lot about head coach Jim Harbaugh. WE all know the Saints incredible spread records at home but this is a team than can give them big trouble as the 49ers possess a defense that can slow them down and on offense, it has a running game that can keep the Saints off the field. While the New Orleans defense is supposedly improved, they are still allowing 5.0 ypc which is dead last in the NFL. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or higher so they know what it takes beating the elite. 10* (425) San Francisco 49ers

Buffalo lost for the third straight game last week as the Steelers shut the offense down once again. The Bills were in a very tough spot though as they went to New Orleans where few teams come out win a win and quarterback Thad Lewis got banged up. He missed the next week so Jeff Tuel got the start but then at Pittsburgh, it was E.J. Manual making the start after being off for six weeks. Three different quarterback s in three weeks does no good for any team but with Manual under center again this week, I think we see a drastic improvement from the offense. The Jets were fresh off a home upset of New Orleans and then their bye week came which I've stated before, can be good or can be bad. I don't think it matters much here but the Jets taking to the road does as they are just 1-3 on the highway and even in the game they won they were outgained. As absurd as it may sound, a Buffalo win puts it just a game and a half back in the Wild Card race and at this points, a .500 record could bring home that second Wild Card spot. The Bills still have plenty to play for as they are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a road loss. 10* (406) Buffalo Bills

Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Cardinals/Jaguars Under. We played on the Jaguars under last week and it was doomed from the start after Jacksonville scored so early. Coming off their highest scoring output of the season, and two straight overs, I am expecting an offensive letdown this week. Jacksonville has stayed under the total in all three of its true home games this season. Arizona had a string of four straight unders but has gone over in three of its last four games however it has played some strong offenses. Additionally, it own offense has been more consistent in scoring but that has not been the case on the road where the Cardinals have scored a grand total of 40 points in their last three road games. After three straight home games, look for more of that. 10* Under (419) Arizona Cardinals/(420) Jacksonville Jaguars

After losing last week at Central Florida, the task doesn't get much easier this week for Houston as it travels to Louisville for a big AAC showdown. The Cougars two losses this season have come by a combined six points and it has the offense to keep up here. Despite just 14 points, the Cougars did put up 367 yards against the Knights and overall they are now 26th in the nation in total offense. After losing to Central Florida, Louisville has bounced back with two straight wins but defeating South Florida and Connecticut, a combined 2-14, is nothing to get excited about. The Cardinals return home which is a big advantage for sure but this line is simply too much. Houston is playing in its second straight road game but with a lot on the line, I expect another great effort this week in Louisville. 10* (323) Houston Cougars

The Buffaloes return home following two straight blowout losses on the road and while it may not seem feasible, they are still in contention for a bowl game. Playing USC at home and at Utah after this, it isn't likely but the possibility is still there and that is where motivation comes into play this time of year. Colorado is 0-5 against teams ranked in the top 30 but 3-1 against everyone else and California certainly falls into that 'everyone else' category. The Golden Bears have yet to defeat an FCS opponent this season as their lone victory came against Portland St. and even that victory was ugly. California has lost eight straight games and only one of those was competitive, a five-point home loss against Arizona two weeks ago. At 1-9, the season thankfully coming to an end but California still has one thing to look forward to and that is its annual showdown with Stanford in "The Big Game" next week. Although it may not be looking forward to that beatdown either. Look for Colorado to keep its slim postseason hopes alive here. 10* (358) Colorado Buffaloes

Auburn is rolling right now and not many people saw this one coming after a dreadful 3-9 season last year. Head coach Gus Malzahn has been able to push the right buttons as the tigers have won six straight games while covering eight in a row. The running game has been steamrolling opponents but now they face a team that can actually stop the run. Auburn has yet to face a defense that is ranked in the top 50 in ypc average while Georgia comes in 20th. The Bulldogs were BCS contenders at one tine but the injury bug did them in once again. They are as healthy as they have been all year and after what was essentially a bye last week against Appalachian St., Georgia comes into this one rested and ready to show that winning the SEC East is still not out of the question. Bettors are lining up behind Auburn in droves as they are riding that ATS winning streak and are hearing all of the talk about Alabama vs. Auburn coming up in two weeks. The Bulldogs will have something to say about that. 10* (365) Georgia Bulldogs

While Michigan St. has won five straight games since losing to Notre Dame and controls its own destiny in the Legends Division, Nebraska will have something to say about that. The Huskers were ranked when they went to Minnesota three weeks ago but lost to the red hot Gophers. They have since won their last two games and while those wins were not very pretty, I am expecting a similar game here and ugly games tend to favor the underdogs, especially the ones at home. A win over Michigan two weeks ago was a good one for the Spartans but other than that, they have defeated no one of significance. Having the week off also hurts as the bye came at a time when momentum was at its best and now it is gone. A win here for Nebraska puts the division it its own hands with games against Penn St. and Iowa on deck. A loss knocks them out of the race but even a loss may not hurt as this line is inflated in my opinion and as mentioned, an ugly, defensive battle favors the home underdog in a big way. The upset would not be a surprise at all though. 10* (376) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Unfortunately, we lost against UCLA last week but we will be going against them again here in what is a very suspicious line. The Bruins opened as slight favorites at Arizona last week before falling into place as small underdog and now they return home as small favorites which will have many scratching their heads. UCLA is ranked 13th while Washington is unranked and that is exactly why we throw ranking right out the door as they are the most meaningless stat there is in college football. Based on this line, Washington is a better team as it would be favored by a slight amount on a neutral field and that is the case at most every legitimate power ranking you look at. According to Jeff Sagarin, the Huskies are 10th in the nation. They are coming off consecutive wins which came after three straight losses. Washington fought hard and should have won at Stanford and the next week they were outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter against Oregon and that carries over into a loss at Arizona St. The Huskies have not won here since 1995 so you know there will be plenty of motivation following one of their most complete games of the season against Colorado last week. The Bruins have blown through their competition at home as they are 4-0 but those wins have come against teams that combined are just 8-31. Washington falls into a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (315) Washington Huskies

This is going to be a very popular play public wise and while laying road chalk in the NFL is a rare occurrence on this end, this is a great spot for it to come through here. The Colts were absolutely embarrassed at home this past Sunday as they got waxed by the Rams 38-8. Indianapolis lost the turnover battle 5-1 while allowing a long punt return for a touchdown and it is near impossible to compete when that takes place. The Colts actually outgained St. Louis by 34 total yards but that is meaningless to them when they are on the short end of the scoreboard but it is very important to us. That snapped a string of four games where Indianapolis was outgained yet it was able to go 3-1 in those games so it shows being on the right side of the unpredictable intangibles is so important. The Titans are coming off a loss against previously winless Jacksonville so they are feeling pretty down and out as well. Tennessee also lost Jake Locker for the season and while I do feel Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid backup, that is exactly what he is, a backup. The Colts have a two-game lead in the AFC South and this is where the good teams step up as a win here doesn't lock anything up but it gives them a solid cushion. Two situation favor the Colts as we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive losses. 10* (309) Indianapolis Colts

Early in the season, it is not a good idea to be laying points on the road, especially numbers this big. Once we get closer to the end of the season though, this philosophy can change and not just because we have season numbers and averages to deal with but also because situations change with more or less on the line. Marshall trails East Carolina in the C-USA East Division by a half-game and a win here most likely sets up a season finale game for the division crown at home against the Pirates. A loss here could make that potential championship meaningless. Marshall has won two straight games since losing at Middle Tennessee St. three weeks ago on national television so it has learned from that as well. Tulsa is coming off its third straight loss and with seven losses, the season is officially done. The Golden Hurricane have thrown in the towel and while they are not going to be laying down here, once they fall behind, it will the good as done. We have two scenarios on our side as we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 34-7 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road favorites after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (313) Marshall Thundering Herd

We are coming across an exceptionally high total here which is what we expected before it came out as most will be looking for a shootout come Wednesday night. This is the highest over/under both teams have seen this season in their games against FBS opposition and this one will prove to be too high. Both teams bring in very potent offenses as Ball St. is ranked 14th in the nation in scoring offense while Northern Illinois is ranked seventh. Scary rankings to say the least. However, one look at the defenses they have faced will paint a different picture. In Ball St.'s six conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 102, 84, 106, 86, 64 and 120 in scoring defense. In Northern Illinois' five conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 94, 120, 102, 84 and 86 in scoring defense. While the Cardinals and Huskies bring in total defenses ranked 84 and 83 respectively, they are ranked 48 and 53 in scoring defense and the logic is simple. They give up a lot of yards because they have big leads and a prevent defense will typically cause total yardage number to be inflated. Both defenses are better than that and that is reflected in the scoring defense rankings. Both teams have gone over the total in their last two games and that is playing a part here as well as public wagering will be riding those over streaks and the number had to be adjusted to make up for that. Expect a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under (305) Ball St. Cardinals/(306) Northern Illinois Huskies

Buffalo is coming off a huge home win last week against Ohio which was the last game of the season played at the UB campus. The Bulls have been rolling as they have won seven straight games while covering their last six. Those games have not even been close as those last six victories have come by an average of 27.7 ppg and none by less than 20 points. However only two of those games were on the road and those came against Western Michigan and Kent St., which combined are 3-17 overall including 2-10 in the MAC. That makes this a big challenge tonight as Buffalo faces its toughest conference road opponent this season. Toledo has quietly won four straight games and six of its last seven to move to 4-1 in the MAC and this is must win to stay in the race in the MAC West. The Rockets trail Ball St. by a game and a half and Northern Illinois by a game and those teams square off on Wednesday. A Northern Illinois victory over the Cardinals would set up a huge game next Wednesday as Toledo hosts the Huskies. Should Toledo win there, the West would end in a three-way tie, one Toledo wins by way of its record against MAC East opponents, the league's third tiebreaker. First things first though as the Rockets need to take care of business tonight. They are 4-0 at home and while their defense gets overshadowed by the offense, this will be the toughest stop unit Buffalo has faced in MAC play. Rockets running back Dave Fluellen is questionable tonight with an ankle injury but his backup Kareem Hunt has produced three straight 100-yard games so there is far from a big dropoff should Fluellen not be cleared for tonight. If there is one game the Bulls can afford to lose and put an end to their seven-game win streak, it is this one as it is likely their matchup with Bowling Green on Nov. 29 will be for a trip to the MAC Championship game. After waiting out the weather situation for this one, the forecast looks good with a cold night on tap but no precipitation is expected. Toledo falls into a great spot as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 54-21 ATS (72 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Toledo Rockets

Both Miami and Tampa Bay are coming off overtime games with the Dolphins winning at home against Cincinnati on Halloween while Tampa Bay lost in Seattle to fall to 0-8 on the season. The Dolphins are the big public consensus here which could make the Buccaneers a strong contrarian play however I feel there is much better value on the total. We won with the under last Monday which made it four straight unders on Monday night and while those past outcomes have nothing to do with this matchup, it does add to the value on the under as the public will once again be chasing the over. Tampa Bay opened the season with four straight unders but it has gone over in each of its last four games as the defense has been the real letdown, allowing an average of 30 ppg after giving up just 17.5 ppg in its first four games. The Buccaneers have played some tough offenses along the way with three ranked in the top have of the league. The Dolphins offense is ranked just 29th overall and while they have been consistent, there have been some fortunate turns along the way. The Miami defense is ranked just 22nd in the NFL but they are 14th in scoring defense which shows a bend don't break philosophy and facing the Buccaneers offense that is ranked second to last in total offense and scoring offense should give them a big advantage tonight. Tampa Bay has gotten into the 20's only three times and two of those were against two of the worst defenses in the NFL while last week against Seattle can be considered a fluke. Miami is 5-2-1 to the over this season which again is helping with the value here as the Dolphins are seeing a total that is nearly the same as against the Bengals last week and they are a top ten offense. Both teams have awesome situations on their sides as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving teams that are being outgained by 40 to 100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 53-21 (71.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 8-0 to the under against defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl over the last two seasons. 10* Under (227) Miami Dolphins/(228) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston has now lost six straight games and even worse, lost its head coach at halftime last week against the Colts but it looks as though Gary Kubiak will be making a full recovery which is great news. The Texans were ahead 21-3 at halftime but they were done after that as they lost focus and the playcalling was clearly not the same. Even though Kubiak will not be around this week, things will at least be better in that they will have had a full week to prepare with Wade Phillips, the Texans defensive coordinator, assuming the role of interim head coach. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will call the plays. Houston is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot so the season is far from lost but this has turned into a must win and one that they will want to win for coach Kubiak. The Texans have outgained seven of eight opponents this season including outgaining the Colts last week by 169 yards and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 120.4 ypg which is extremely solid for a team sitting at 2-6. even more impressive is the fact they have played the second toughest schedule in the NFL. Arizona is coming off its bye week following a home win against Atlanta two weeks ago. Sitting at 4-4, the Cardinals are only one game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC so they are definitely in the thick of things. But they have been very inconsistent as they have outgained five of eight opponents by a combined 166 total yards however in the three games they were outgained, it was by a total of 389 total yards. The defense has played well as they are ranked 13th overall and 11th in scoring but the offense has been an issue as Arizona is ranked 29th overall and 24th in scoring. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for 621 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts since replacing Matt Schaub and he will need to remain efficient to try and keep the Cardinals defense off balanced. The Texans fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (221) Houston Texans

While I still feel that Kansas City is the biggest fraud in the NFL, Carolina is not far behind. The Panthers have won and covered four straight games after a 1-3 start to move to 5-3 on the season and are now just a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. It has been a solid run but the four wins during the streak have come against teams with no more than three wins and a combined record of 6-27. Even two of their losses came against current non-winning teams and the only team ranked in the top 16 they have played was Seattle at the start of the season. Carolina played the Seahawks tough but that was many weeks ago and all of this translates into the easiest schedule played in the NFL. The defense has been exceptional as the Panthers are ranked third overall and second in scoring but what happens now when they face an offense that has exploded for an average of 34.8 ppg over their last five games? They could be in for some trouble. While Carolina has played a weak schedule, the 49ers have not exactly played the toughest schedule either as theirs is ranked 25th in the NFL. There is a big difference however as San Francisco has proven that it can beat the elite teams in the NFL by taking a look at last season. You cannot call the 49ers record skewed because of the schedule as they would likely be winning anyway. San Francisco has won and covered five in a row, albeit against weak opposition, and it has been hearing the jeers about not beating any solid teams so this cane be their chance, at least what the public thinks as far as Carolina being a solid team. I think the biggest positive for the 49ers however is the fact that they are coming off a bye week following their trip to London. San Francisco is rested, fresh off a much-needed bye week and has begun to reload the roster with top talents on both sides of the ball. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after one or more consecutive wins. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. This is the perfect opportunity for the 49ers to show they still are the elite team in the NFC. 10* (220) San Francisco 49ers

The loss of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers cannot be overstated but reading over some of the aftereffects you would think the Packers are done and might as well pack it in. It was extremely tough last week with Seneca Wallace coming into the game in emergency duty as he was not prepared in the least bit and it showed. The difference this week is that Wallace will have had a full week of practice and preparation so things will be a lot better for the offense this time around. We are getting an exceptional line as it has dropped nine points since it opened Sunday night and while many will argue that Aaron Rodgers is worth nine points, I'm not one to buy into that as there are 21 other starters out there along with his replacement and this is the time when these players typically step up after one of their top teammates goes down. Defensively, the Packers did receive some good news this week that Clay Matthews returned to practice after missing the past three games with a broken thumb. The defense is going to have to step up and play very well against a potent offensive team. Everyone saw what the Eagles and Nick Foles did last week in Oakland but don't expect a repeat of that here. Let's not forget that Philadelphia scored a total of 10 points in their previous two games combined so we cannot assume this offense has suddenly found its groove once again. The Eagles are still a game behind Dallas for first place in the NFC East so they are in fine shape but one thing that is not fine is their defense. They are dead last in the NFL in yards allowed and despite giving up just 20 points to the Raiders last week, they allowed 560 yards so if Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin can have success, it is safe to say Seneca Wallace can as well. Philadelphia has allowed 368 total yards or more in six of nine games and they have to worry about the Packers resurgent running game as rookie running back Eddie Lacy leads the league in rushing over the last five weeks. While many are counting the Packers down and out, we are far from that group. We play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile the Eagles are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing seven or more passing ypa while going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (206) Green Bay Packers

After a 4-2 start, Wyoming has been a big disappointment the last two games, losing at home against Colorado St., a game in which we had the Cowboys, and then following that up with a loss at San Jose St. Overall, they are 3-1 at home which is solid and they have been pretty sizable favorites in those games but now they go into this one as the home underdog and a sizeable one at that. The defense has been the main cause of concern the last two games as Wyoming allowed 52 and 51 points, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Chris Tormey so the fact it had a bye week after those and prior to this is perfect timing. It is a very interesting scenario considering San Diego St., also coming off a bye going into its game against Fresno St. two weeks ago, were throwing things at quarterback Derek Carr and the Bulldogs' offense that they hadn't seen on tape and we can expect Wyoming to throw in some new wrinkles as well. Fresno St. enters this game with a perfect 8-0 record but it could easily be worse. The Bulldogs took care of Rutgers in their opener but it took overtime to do so and then two games later defeated Boise St. by just one point. And both of those games were at home. They have played three road games and while one of those was against Idaho, one of the worst teams in FBS, the other two resulted in scares, a five points win at Hawaii and then a win at San Diego St. which was another overtime victory. Fresno St. is outgaining opponents by over 100 ypg but that is skewed by two games as its other six games shows a +64 total yards advantage overall. There is a reason the Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS as they continue to be overvalued and one of those covers came by a half-point with the only big spread winner being that game against the Vandals. Wyoming is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 525 or more total yards in its previous game while going 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in its previous game. Additionally, the Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. This game has upset written all over it and I expect Wyoming to get back to the brand of football it showcased earlier in the season. 10* (154) Wyoming Cowboys

UCLA and Arizona come in with pretty similar credentials as both are sitting at 6-2 on the season, both are 3-2 in the Pac 12 and both are 0-2 against teams ranked in the top 30 in power rankings. The Bruins have played a slightly tougher schedule but not enough to make a difference. Those similarities would think to put these teams pretty even on a betting sheet thus putting Arizona as a small favorite when factoring in home field. Instead, UCLA comes in as a road favorite which I feel is completely ludicrous. It has been a great story in the Bruins turnaround since Jim Mora has come in but things have gone south. Losses against Stanford and Oregon, which were expected, were worse than most though as they were outgained by a combined 425 total yards and last week against Colorado, despite a 22-point home win, UCLA outgained the Buffaloes by just 31 yards. Now they hit the road again against a team out for some serious revenge. Arizona has yet to face Oregon and it misses Stanford while its two losses came at Washington and at USC and they were a lot more respectable. This is the first of three straight home games for the Wildcats as they look to make a push before closing the season at Arizona St. Four of Arizona's previous five games have been on the road so it has not spent much time in Tucson with the lone win coming by 11 points against Utah. Overall, the Wildcats are 3-0 at home and to say they don't want to win this game big would be an understatement. After a 39-36 home win last year over then-No. 10 USC, the Wildcats traveled to the Rose Bowl with a 5-3 mark and feeling pretty good about the rest of their season. Instead, Arizona left with a 56-point loss while it was outgained 611-257. Head coach Rich Rodriguez said his team is aware of the game's implications, but tries to make sure they focus on the process and not the end result. However, he admitted there is "no question our guys will feel the buzz." Arizona running back Ka'Deem Carey will be out for some retribution as well. The UCLA game was the last game in which Carey failed to rush for 100 yards, as he totaled 54 yards on 16 carries. In 11 games since, including a bowl game, Carey has 1,986 rushing yards with 20 touchdowns. This season, UCLA ranks eighth in the conference, surrendering 167.6 ypg on the ground. UCLA is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after scoring 42 points or more last game while going 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games against teams averaging 4.75 or more ypc rushing. 10* (198) Arizona Wildcats

We played against UNLV last week for the simple reason it was in a bad spot coming off a road win at rival Nevada the previous week. I did mention that of the Rebels five wins, none were against winning FBS teams so asking them to win here may seem like a stretch but the spot is a lot better and they are getting a much better line on top of it. You cannot take away the turnaround UNLV has made this season. As mentioned last week, one more win would match their win total from the first three seasons combined as UNLV had won just two games in each of the first three season under head coach Bobby Hauck. Additionally, one more win would get the Runnin' Rebels to a bowl game for the first time since 2000, or at least make them eligible. Games against Air Force and San Diego St. await so there is no guarantee of an easy win but the confidence is still there and the motivation definitely is. Utah St. comes in with an identical 5-4 record but it has a much better power rating and thus, is a large road favorite against another 5-4 team. The Aggies have not much to impress me however as they have defeated just one team with a winning record and their other three wins against FBC opposition were against teams a combined 4-21 so they definitely lack the quality wins they have secured in the past in turning this program around. The loss of Chuckie Keeton at quarterback was a massive blow and Darell Garretson has been a decent backup but he is far from the same player. The defense is very solid but again, the best games came against some poor teams. The Rebels possess a very strong offense fortified by a great running game and while they were held in check last week against the Spartans, I expect a much better effort this week even though it will be against what is considered a better defense. One of the reasons is the Rebels can spread the ball out and Utah St. has had a problem especially containing pass plays as it has allowed 35 passes of 20 yards or more this year and has allowed four touchdowns of 20 yards or more in their last four games. The Rebels have a very strong time test contrarian situation on their side as well as we play on teams that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after allowing 525 or more ypg over their last three games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Rebels are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. 10* (186) UNLV Runnin' Rebels

BYU has faced a very challenging schedule by playing as an independent and it doesn't get any easier here but this actually sets up better for the Cougars than it does got Wisconsin. BYU has won five straight games to improve to 6-2 on the season with its two losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Cougars have not been beating up any patsies either as they have played the 21st ranked schedule in the nation. BYU has outgained every opponent this season and on average, it is outgaining foes by 128.7 ypg which is a pretty significant amount considering the caliber of competition. The first trip this far east did not go good as it resulted in a loss at Virginia and with the Cavaliers are playing now, that loss is looking worse and worse but the Cougars have more than made up for it. While being an independent means playing a difficult schedule, playing an independent can be very challenging depending upon when it takes place. Georgia Tech four weeks ago went into Provo and got pummeled while the same thing happened to Boise St. two weeks ago. It is tough for teams that are in the middle of their conference season to lose focus and play a non-conference game this late in the season and that is what Wisconsin is being asked to do. After losing to Ohio St. to go to 1-1 in Big Ten play, the Badgers have won their last three games but have to avoid the letdown before finishing out with three more conference games. I doubt Wisconsin is going to sit down here but it will be hard putting forth 100 percent effort when BYU has done just that all season and it does not have to worry about nay conference letdowns. Wisconsin is 6-2 as well but both losses came against teams ranked within the top 30 and that is where the Cougars fall as well. BYU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while going 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. It also falls into a great situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) BYU Cougars

Air Force opened the season with a win over Colgate from the FCS and then followed that up with seven straight losses. The Falcons finally got back into the win column with a victory over Army this past Saturday and that was obviously a big victory as it was part of the Commander-In-Chief series and those are always huge games. "Doing this at home against Army is amazing," said junior free safety Christian Spears, who led the Falcons with 12 tackles. "The season hasn't gone the way we would have liked, but in our locker room, this is the best 2-7 has ever felt." That will be a tough game to overcome, especially on a short week with travel plus the fact Air Force is coming off three consecutive home games as well as a bye week mixed in there so the Falcons have played on the road in a month. New Mexico is having an equally tough season as it has dropped three straight games and is now 2-6 overall. To their credit, the Lobos have played a difficult schedule similar to that of Air Force as they have dropped only one game to a team with a losing record and that was a close loss against Texas-San Antonio. The last three losses have come against three of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference and losses at Wyoming and San Diego St. were by only 12 points combined. While making it to a bowl game is unlikely with games remaining at Fresno St. and Boise St., New Mexico comes into this game knowing that it is still mathematically alive while Air Force has no chance with its seven losses. The Lobos are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 or more ppg on the season while Air Force is 2-9 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against defenses allowing 8.0 or more passing ypa. New Mexico is playing with quintuple revenge as it has lost five straight meetings but it was the underdog in all of those so being the favorite here is definitely telling us things are not how they used to be. 10* (118) New Mexico Lobos

Washington has been very inconsistent this season as it comes in 3-5 but we saw a very similar first half a season ago when it started 3-6 only to go on and win its final seven games of the regular season to win the division and make it into the playoffs. Will we see another strong second half from the Redskins this season? I don't think so. Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning in overtime last week and that can be a big momentum boost but the Redskins have been unable to win consecutive games this season, following up their first two wins with blowout road losses. Granted, they are facing a team with a losing record this time around but until their defense gets right, they will not be putting together too many winning streak this year. The Washington defense is ranked 30th overall and 31st in scoring and while the Vikings offense is 27th overall, they have scored 23 or more points in six of their eight games. Minnesota is coming off a last second loss against Dallas as the Cowboys were able to make up for their last second loss the previous week in Detroit. The Vikings fell to 1-7 and have dropped four straight games while not winning a single game on American soil. I think that comes to an end here as we are catching a line that is drawing bettors to the side of the short road favorite, similar to what we saw last week in Miami. The Vikings offense as mentioned has been able to score a good amount of points in the majority of their games and with Christian Ponder coming off his two best games of the season and Adrian Peterson coming off a season high 140 yards rushing, this offense can have a lot of success against the weak Redskins defense. The Vikings defense is not much better but they had a strong effort last week in Dallas as by holding the Cowboys to only 36 rushing yards, the Vikings dropped their defensive average against the rush by almost 10 ypg and improved their ranking form 21st to 12th in the NFL. Minnesota has lost three games in the final minute this season so it has played better than its record indicates and I give it a significant edge in playing this game at home on a short week. 10* (108) Minnesota Vikings

Baylor is one of seven remaining undefeated teams in the country and while the Bears have had great success the last few years, this is being billed as one of the biggest home games in a long time if not ever. It is the first game between top-10 teams at Floyd Casey Stadium since 1956 and just the third ever for Baylor at home. They are ranked sixth in the most recent BCS standings and while some point to a weak schedule played thus far leading up to the undefeated start, there is no denying this offense is powerful. Baylor's offense has been held to fewer than 59 points only once this season and that was a road game at Kansas St. where it managed a 'mere' 35 points. The Sooners have won two straight games since losing to Texas and they are now 7-1 on the season. Oklahoma has a top ten ranked defense but this is by far its toughest test of the season. If you can run on them, you can beat them, but so far they've only played one team willing and able to do so and that was the Longhorns. Baylor creates a lot of space to take advantage of its speed and it makes it difficult for defenses to disguise their blitzes and create confusion for the offense, which has been one of the staples of Oklahoma's defense this season. The Sooners will play a lot of man-to-man coverage which they did last season against Baylor and it worked as Baylor managed only 172 total yards. But this team is quicker and more explosive and playing at home is a huge difference as well. The Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following two straight conference wins and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against offenses averaging 425 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 71-37 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (110) Baylor Bears

This line opened at -3 in most places and it has gone up across the board and we are now catching a line over a key number which can be important should we get involved in a close game. Ohio opened the season with a big loss at Louisville but then rolled off four straight wins before a shocking home loss against Central Michigan, losing the game in the final seconds. The Bobcats lost the turnover battle 4-1 and that was the ultimate difference as a fumble with 2:47 remaining led to a short field and the game-winning touchdown. Ohio has since won its last two games and now trails Buffalo by a half-game in the MAC East which makes the loser of this game at a big disadvantage. Ohio is 2-0 on the road in the MAC this season. Buffalo has won its last five games including four within the conference to take the lead in the MAC East. The Bulls have covered all of those games as well but it needs to be noted that those teams have a combined record of 4-39 with none of those teams owning more than two wins on the entire season. This is a very solid team defensively which is something we knew coming into the season so that cannot be taken away from Buffalo but this is easily the biggest offensive test it has faced during its winning streak. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. I feel that the experience that Ohio possess will be the difference here. The edge for the Bobcats is they are senior-laden, including quarterback Tyler Tettleton, and they have been involved in these big games while Buffalo has not. Tettleton, 10th in the country in passing efficiency, is playing some of the best football of his career and he is partly responsible for this senior-laden group that has been the most consistent winning team in the MAC East over the past four seasons. We play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. 10* (101) Ohio Bobcats

The Bears come in off their bye week in search of some answers following losses in three of their last four games. Those answers mostly come from the defense that has allowed an average of 29.4 ppg on the season and that is a big part why Chicago has gone over the total in six of its seven games on the season. And that is significant in us getting a very favorable total tonight as it is the highest over/under that the Bears have seen all season long. I feel we are getting a lot of value in it and it is even more considering it is the highest total this series has had in a while and one that has gone under the total in 10 of the last 11 meetings. It is no secret that the Green bay offense is hitting on all cylinders right now after last week in Minnesota where it scored on every possession with the exception of running out the drive before halftime and taking a knee at the end of the game. That game easily eclipsed the total and the number is now higher and it is the second highest over/under posted in a Packers game this season. The previous three Green Bay games stayed under the total thanks to the defense that allowed a total of just 39 combined points and it should have success again tonight against the Bears offense without quarterback Jay Cutler. Bettors won with the over in last night's primetime game and they will surely be betting the over again tonight which has caused the number to move up from its opening. The under is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game while the under is 4-1 in its last five games after allowing 30 or more points last game. Meanwhile, the under is 6-0 in the Packers last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Chicago has a league-wide situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in November games. This situation is 26-6 (81.2 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (423) Chicago Bears/(424) Green Bay Packers

It has certainly been a difficult season for the Steelers that few saw coming. Pittsburgh opened up with a home loss against Tennessee and then went on to lose three more after that for its worst start since beginning 1-3 in 2006, the final season for head coach Bill Cowher. The Steelers won two straight after that and when it looked like things were finally turning around, they went into Oakland last week, fell behind 21-3 at halftime and could not recover. While they are 2-5, they are not as bad as that record indicates as they are outgaining opponents by close to 20 ypg but the problem has been turnovers. They are -9 in turnover margin mostly due to a defense that has only five takeaways and three of those took place last week against the Raiders. The offense has been below average but the Pittsburgh defense is still a force as it is ranked fourth in the NFL. Obviously, taking care of the ball is a must here. The Patriots meanwhile are 6-2 but they are not a very good 6-2. they have been outgained in five of those eight games and are getting outgained by an average of 16.3 ypg so the record and stats posted are the exact opposite of the Steelers. Yes, New England is 4-0 at home but it easily could have lost three of those games had things not gone their way and that is in reference to turnovers as the Patriots are +7 in turnover margin at home. These things have a way of balancing themselves out, especially with teams that are not as good as they appear to be. The offense behind Tom Brady has been below average this season despite a lot of points scored the last three games and we will see the unit struggle against this tough Steelers defense. The Steelers have been great in these spots as they are a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number in their last eight games as underdogs when facing an opponent with a winning percent below .800 and coming off a win. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (419) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rams put everything they had into their game against Seattle on Monday night only to fall just short as a last minute game-winning touchdown try went amiss. Picking up the pieces from that defeat is going to be extremely difficult for St. Louis and playing on a short week does not help matters. The defense played one of its best games of the season against the Seahawks and it was actually the best of the season as far as yards go as the Rams allowed just 135 total yards. Overall, they outgained Seattle by 204 total yards but it still resulted in a second straight loss. Quarterback Kellen Clemens made his first start since replacing Sam Bradford and the results were not good as he went just 15-31 for 158 yards and two picks. While the Seattle defense is one of the best in the NFL, Tennessee's defense is no slouch. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those were without quarterback Jake Locker. He returned against San Francisco in their last game and while it resulted in a loss by 14 points, the titans won the yardage battle by 19 yards and Locker did not play that poorly. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 2-0 and one of those resulted in a touchdown when the 49ers recovered a fumble in the endzone. The three-game losing streak certainly stings but it has been against teams that are a combined 21-3 so it is not surprising. The best news is that the Titans are coming off a bye week so they will be more than energized to get back to their winning ways when they started the season 3-1. I'm normally not one to be laying points on the road but this situation sets up perfectly for it. The Rams defensive effort was outstanding against the Seahawks as mentioned but coming back from that will be too touch as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Titans meanwhile are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a spread loss and they fall into a great situation where we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (407) Tennessee Titans

We played against the Jets last week as they went into Cincinnati and got steamrolled by the Bengals. It was the perfect letdown opportunity involving New York as it was coming off a huge overtime victory over rival New England the previous week and it was clear that the Jets were still feeling the hangover as they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and could not recover. Not the Jets are back home where they are 3-1 on the season and in full bounce back mode and that is something they have been successful at all season. New York has followed up its previous three losses with wins and covers and while most are not giving it a chance against the high-flying Saints, I am fully behind the Jets as they should be able to rebound at home again. The Saints should be 7-0 right now but poor clock management against Patriots led to a last second loss. They bye week came at a perfect time for them as they were able to move away from that and bounced back as expected with a big win over Buffalo last week. New Orleans now hits the road again for the third time in four games and this is clearly a different team on the highway. The Saints barely got by Tampa Bay in their first road game of the season as they won by only two points and then in the last two roadies, they were outgained in both Chicago and New England. There is no choice for the linesmakers to list the Saints as the road favorites here but prior to last week, this line was -3.5 so it shows how one week can change the public perception of not just one, but both teams. The effort from the Jets last week was horrific and the players heard about it so you know this week we will see a much better effort this time around. We have seen success in the past as the Jets are 4-0 straight up and ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against opponents that are coming off a win. New York also falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (406) New York Jets

At first glance, this line seems extremely high for two top ten teams squaring off but the more we see Miami, the less sold we are on it being a top ten team. The Hurricanes have struggled the last two weeks against much lesser competition as they needed a touchdown in the final minute against North Carolina and Wake Forest to pull out the victories. This is the first time since 2004 that these rivals have squared off with both being ranked in the top ten but the line is this big for a reason. Florida St. has had only one poor game and that was at Boston College where it won by 14 points after spotting the Eagles a 14-point lead. The Seminoles are coming off three dominant performances since then including a blowout win at Clemson and last week, while they didn't cover, they led 42-0 before they took their foot off the gas in the second half. They have scored at least 48 points in their last six games, averaging 54.5 ppg over that stretch. Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston came in with a lot of hype and he has been spectacular in leading this offense and there is no reason to think he will slow down. Miami is solid defensively but it has not played an offense close to as potent as this one. It is no secret that Miami is going to try and run the ball as that is where it is most successful and thus will try and keep the Seminoles offense off the field. While the Hurricanes have averaged 214.7 ypg, this will be its first big test. While Florida State's defense didn't fare great against the power running games of Pittsburgh and Boston College, the Seminoles have made a couple of adjustments in personnel since those games. In the three games since the move was made, the first-team defense has allowed less than 50 rushing ypg. Florida St. falls into a simple yet sensation situation as we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 32-5 ATS (86.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Florida St. is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in four consecutive games. 10* (356) Florida St. Seminoles

We played against Texas Tech last Saturday and snuck out the win with Oklahoma which handed the Red Raiders their first loss of the season. I didn't like the situation for them based on the schedule leading up to it as it was very easy up to that point but now having played a big game, I think Texas Tech can bounce back. The fact the Red Raiders are back home from a two-game roadtrip also helps matters as they are 4-0 at home this season and this is by far the lowest spread they have had to lay in the role of favorite. The loser of this game is eliminated from Big XII title consideration in all likelihood while the winner of this game controls their own destiny within the conference as both teams still have Baylor and Texas on their schedules so we give the big edge to the home team here. Oklahoma St. is coming off a win at Iowa St. last week and while it was a 31-point win, it was far from that dominant as the Cowboys won the yardage battle by just 74 total yards. While many will argue that Texas Tech is an overrated team, I clearly put Oklahoma St. up there as the Cowboys don't have a quality win as the victory over Mississippi State has lost its luster as the Bulldogs have slumped into mediocrity. The Cowboys are 2-1 on the road as they had a poor game at West Virginia, the same place that the Red Raiders just won at two weeks ago even though we were on the other side of that game. This is a double-revenge game for Texas Tech as it not only lost in Stillwater last season by 38 points but it was absolutely pummeled by the Cowboys in Lubbock two years ago 66-6. The Red Raiders have actually lost four straight in this series but going back to that 60-point loss is as far back as we really need to go. We have seen the line switch here as the early action came in on the Red Raiders as home underdogs but even at this price, there is plenty of value still. Revenge will be sweet on Saturday as Texas Tech gets back into the win column. 10* (390) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Minnesota became bowl eligible last week with a big home win over previously ranked Nebraska. The Gophers were expected to make it back to a bowl game because of a fairly easy schedule and they have taken advantage of that by getting to six wins in the quickest amount of time since 2008. of the seven games against FBS opponents, Minnesota has been outgained in five of those so it has not been a traditional positive run to start the season. Overall, the Gophers are getting outgained by 29.3 ypg despite outscoring opponents by a touchdown and that is a fa

We won with Cincinnati this past Sunday as it destroyed the Jets which were coming off that big overtime win over New England the previous Sunday. The Bengals have now won four straight games to move to 6-2 overall and they have a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. The win over the Jets improved Cincinnati to 4-0 at home so it is just 2-2 on the road and both of those victories came by just three points each including one in overtime at Buffalo. The offense is clicking right now as the Bengals have averaged 34.3 ppg over their last three games while putting up 435.3 ypg. That makes this week a challenge. Miami started the season 3-0 but it has lost its last four games and the one this past week was probably the most disappointing as the Dolphin built a 17-3 lead only to allow the final 24 points of the game. They are under .500 for the first time and they will also be looking to get back to .500 at home where they are 1-2 with losses against Baltimore and Buffalo by a combined five points. Miami is trending in the right direction at least as it was outgained in each of its first five games but has won the yardage battle the last two games albeit by just 74 yards combined. Still, this is a desperate team in need of a victory and I like the fact we have seen the last two Thursday wins go to the road favorite and that is where the public action is going to be again this week. What has really hurt Miami has been turnovers as they have 10 over the last four games while having just four takeaways. Conversely, the Bengals have only given it away four times during its winning streak so it is easy to figure out why these teams have gone in opposite directions. Miami falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 59-28 (67.8 percent) since 1983. The Dolphins have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati meanwhile is 0-2 ATS this season as a road favorite and the winning streak comes to an end this Thursday. 10* (304) Miami Dolphins

Both Louisiana-Monroe and Troy come into this game with one conference loss which puts them behind first place Louisiana which sits at 3-0 in Sun Belt Conference action. Both still have to play the Ragin' Cajuns so a win here is huge for both sides but I give the significant edge to Troy in this one. The Trojans have won three straight games after dropping three in a row and this six-game stretch was far from easy as five of those games took place on the road. This includes the last two games but both resulted in victories and they head home with momentum and a 3-0 record at Veterans Memorial Stadium on top of it. The home field advantage tailed off the previous two years but now that the team as a whole is better, the home field is stronger as well. The Warhawks meanwhile have won and covered two straight games after suffering through its own three-game skid. Both were SBC wins to move them to 2-1 in the conference but this is just their second road game over the last five weeks so their recent schedule has been just the opposite to that of the Trojans. Surprisingly, Louisiana-Monroe was getting six points in its last road game at Texas St. and it now getting less here despite the fact that Troy is a better team than the Bobcats, at least power ranking wise. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Troy has been pretty lousy as a home favorite over the last few years and I feel that is playing into this number. Playing in the spotlight of a Thursday night should add to its home field edge and the Trojans fall into a great Thursday night scenario. We play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won three out of their last four games, when playing on a Thursday. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Louisiana-Monroe is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after two or more consecutive straight up wins. 10* (310) Troy Trojans

A look at the records shows that Cincinnati is clearly the better team in this matchup but there is more to everything than just records. Memphis comes in with a 1-5 record but it could easily be 3-3 if not even better than that. The Tigers have lost three games by a touchdown or less and in two of those, they outgained the opposition. In another loss, this one by 10 points against Houston, they actually outgained the Cougars in that one as well. On the season, Memphis is outgaining opponents by 28 ypg and you are not going to find that many teams that are four games under .500 at the midway point and winning the yardage battle overall. Cincinnati meanwhile is riding a two-game winning streak following blowout wins over Connecticut and Temple. The Bearcats are 5-2 on the season including 1-2 on the road and a breakdown of the schedule shows why they in fact have a winning record. Cincinnati has played six FBS teams and none have winning records and combined, they are 7-37. The only teams with more than one win, South Florida and Illinois, resulted in losses so the victories have come against teams a combined 2-28. Granted, Memphis falls into the category of the bad records but as mentioned, the Tigers are a much better team than the record shows. The only road win for the Bearcats was at 0-8 Miami Ohio and that was only by a 14-0 score. Memphis falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging between 28 and 34 going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg, after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. Meanwhile. Memphis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive conference losses. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a win by 21 or more points. 10* (302) Memphis Tigers

We held off on this game to see where the markets would be moving based on the Rams situation at quarterback and surprisingly, this total has not moved. With Sam Bradford out for the season, St. Louis turns to Kellen Clemens who has thrown a total of seven passes the last two years so he is not going to be expected to take this offense over, especially against one of the best defenses in he NFL. Through seven games, the Seahawks' 23 sacks are tied for fourth in the league. The Rams total offense is ranked 30th in the NFL but despite that, they have gone over the total in four straight games and they are 6-1 to the over on the season. A lot of that has to do with a porous defense that has allowed 30 or more points four times and while it has underachieved most of the season, I expect the defense to step up tonight on its home field. Seattle comes in with a 6-1 record as it has won two straight games since suffering its first loss at Indianapolis. The Seahawks opened the season with two straight unders but they have gone over the total in four of their last five games and that again is keeping this number higher than it should be. This is actually the second highest number that Seattle has seen in its past six games as linesmakers need to keep it high because of the expected action on the over. The Seahawks are ranked 10th in the NFL in total offense and that is largely based on they are first in rushing offense and even more importantly, they are first in rushing attempts. They will face a Rams rushing defense that is ranked 30th in the league and have been gashed for 763 yards over the last five games. Marshawn Lynch has posted three consecutive 100-yard games against the Rams, including two last year in which he averaged 5.74 ypc on 38 attempts. We will see another heavy dose of him for sure tonight. We all know Russell Wilson can take the game over himself as well but the Rams have given him problems. In two games against the Rams in 2012, Wilson had the worst QBR (14.4) of his career in the first meeting in St. Louis and then was hammered for six sacks in the second meeting. Seattle does have some issues along the offensive line so the pressure should continue. Both meetings last season stayed below the total and those closing numbers were lower than what we have tonight. 10* Under (231) Seattle Seahawks/(232) St. Louis Rams

The nightmare season continues for the Vikings as the Josh Freeman experiment ended rather abruptly as he is done after one start due to a concussion. They lost in New York last Monday night and he certainly didn't do much to help as he passed for only 190 yards while the offense generated just 206 total yards. The adage goes teams are not as bad as they look the previous week and we are expecting that to hold true here with Christian Ponder back at quarterback. The Packers have been one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league this year, and although the Vikings' offensive line is one of the most inconsistent in the NFL, things are shaping up for Ponder to make the most of his return to the starting lineup. This is just Minnesota's third home game of the season and what better spotlight to turn things around than on Sunday night primetime against the hated Packers. Green Bay has won and covered three straight games which is also playing into this inflated line it is laying here. The Packers do look to be clicking once again as they have outgained each of their last five opponents but this is not going to be an easy environment come Sunday night to continue their recent dominance. The offense has not missed a beat despite numerous injuries but now Green Bay has to deal with another one as tight end Jermichael Finley is out after a severe neck injury last week so the depth at tight end is next to nothing. Aaron Rodgers has had his struggles against the Vikings and while the pass rush for Minnesota has not been the same, the home crowd could lift it up here. The wild card here could be a simple one and that is to get Adrian Peterson going as he has not lived up to expectations from last season. Facing the Packers could break him out of his slump though. In the two games these teams played in the regular season last year, Peterson ran for a total of 409 yards and two touchdowns. He was slowed down in the playoff game with just 99 yards but the Vikings had to start Joe Webb in that game so the Packers were able to key on Peterson. Here we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (230) Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Patriots following a controversial penalty call but nonetheless, it puts them in a tough spot this week. As has been the case all season with New York, it has followed up its wins with a loss next time out and I don't see how this is going to be any different. The best example was the win prior to this last one when the Jets went into Atlanta on Monday night and defeated the Falcons only to come home the following week and lay an egg against the Steelers. The victory over the Patriots was arguably an even bigger one and the only difference now is that the Jets have to go on the road which makes it even tougher. In games at New England and Atlanta, New York was getting double-digits and this week, it is getting less than a touchdown in most places so I see a lot of value on the Bengals here. Cincinnati is coming off two dramatic road wins over the last two weeks to take a two-game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and Cleveland. This is normally a fade spot against teams in college but it tends to be different in the NFL in a lot of cases. Because those games were on the road and now the Bengals travel home, I feel this is a big momentum boost and it is accentuated even more because their next two games are on the road including a game at Miami this coming Thursday. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games while going a perfect 3-0 at home both straight up and against the number and has won five straight games at home dating back to last season. The defense has led the way as overall, Cincinnati is seventh in scoring and ninth in total defense. But it will be up to the offense to be able to pull away in this one which I think is a definite. The one thing that the Bengals can limit here is the Jets pass rush ability. Pro Football Focus rates the Bengals offensive line second in the league in pass-blocking efficiency and that is a major challenge to a defense that relies heavily on its pass rush to stop its opponents' passing game. The Bengals fall into an awesome situation as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1983 including going 7-1 ATS over the last five seasons. 10* (222) Cincinnati Bengals

The Lions are coming off a crushing defeat last week as they lost to Cincinnati on a field goal as time expired. The Lions have been able to rebound in their other losses this season and I am expecting the same again this week. Detroit has its bye next week prior to two road games at Chicago and at Pittsburgh so the ultimate goal right now is to go into the week with a win in order to keep pace with Green Bay. That was the Lions first home loss of the season and this is the first opportunity that they have had consecutive games at home. The offense has been outstanding all season with the lone exception being the game at Green Bay in which Calvin Johnson was out which shows how big his presence is. They have been able to feed off big offensive games as the Lions are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a big win at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and while this is Detroit's first back-to-back home set of the season, this is the Cowboys first back-to-back road set of the year. The last time Dallas won a road game with a road game to follow was the start of last season when it won against the Giants on opening week only to get thumped in Seattle the next week. Making matters even more difficult is the fact that the two wins during this two-game streak were both against divisional foes. The Cowboys are now 6-1 ATS his season which is the best spread record in the league and being a public team, this will be ridden out. While Dallas is third in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense, those rankings drop to 13th in total offense and 29th in total defense. That last ranking will be the downfall here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and that also falls into a league-wide situation favoring the Lions. We play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. This includes an 11-2 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Dallas is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a victory. 10* (212) Detroit Lions

We got burned last week with Wyoming as Colorado St. came into Laramie and thumped the Cowboys to snap its four-game losing streak in the Border War. That was a huge win for the Rams in its biggest rivalry game and now it has to travel to the island to take on Hawaii before heading back home for another huge game against Boise St. This is a very tough spot for Colorado St. as it is not going to be taking the Warriors as serious as it should which could cost them. We are also seeing a reverse line movement in this game as the majority of the betting action has come in on the Rams yet the line has actually dropped. Colorado St. has been a road favorite only four times since 2009 and is 0-4 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. Additionally, the Rams are 0-4 straight up in their last four games in the second of back-to-back road contests. Hawaii comes into this game winless on the season, sitting at 0-6, but it has had some tough losses including the last three games that were lost by a combined 17 points. This includes a two-point loss at UNLV two weeks ago which is a big deal as the Warriors will have had an extra week to prepare for this game which gives them an extremely big edge in travel. Typically, teams have a routine for getting ready to go to Hawaii but Colorado St. has not played here since 1996. That head start will help the Warriors prepare for the difficult matchup, but the excitement of Homecoming will be another point of emphasis and motivation for the team. Despite Colorado St.'s offensive success, Hawaii's offense has been steadily improving to match up against the Rams attack. Although the Warriors struggled offensively to start the season, they have averaged more than 33 ppg during the past three contests. Senior quarterback Sean Schroeder, who has thrown for 988 yards in his past three games, has proven competent at keeping up with opposing offenses. While Hawaii's defense has been an issue, Colorado St. is not far behind so the Warriors offense should keep its momentum going. Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 525 or more total ypg over its last two games while the Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. This has upset written all over it. 10* (208) Hawaii Warriors

We played against Texas Tech last week and we got burned on that one as the Red Raiders outscored West Virginia 14-0 in the fourth quarter including a touchdown in the final minute to secure the cover. While the setup was not very good there for Texas Tech, it gets much worse this week as it heads to Oklahoma which kicks off the difficult part of its schedule. The Red Raiders have played the second easiest schedule in the Big XII, ranked 87th overall, as they trail only Baylor for strength of schedule ranking. Now that TCU lost last week, every team Texas Tech has defeated in the conference has a losing record overall and the combined record of the four teams in Big XII action is 2-12. The Red Raiders still have Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Baylor and Texas after this so 7-0 could turn into 7-5 without much problem. Of the 10 remaining undefeated teams, Texas Tech is ranked eighth out of the group according to a few power ranking reports. Oklahoma shook off its loss against Texas with a win at Kansas last week although it was far from a blowout as expected it would be. The Sooners won by just 15 points and has to rally from 13-0 down but they did outgain the Jayhawks by 214 total yards so it was pretty dominating. Now Oklahoma heads back home where it is 4-0 this season and an incredible 81-5 under head coach Bob Stoops even though two of those losses came last season. While the effort may not have been there last week, it will be there this week as Oklahoma has a bye on deck before a monumental game at Baylor on Thursday night the following week. I expect Oklahoma to be able to run with plenty of success against the Red Raiders even though the defensive rankings go against that. The schedule has a lot to do with that and Texas Tech has yet to face a team with a real running game. On the other side, the Sooners are ranked ninth in total defense and first in passing defense so the Red Raiders will have their hands full. The home team had won seven straight meetings in this series before the last two seasons where the road teams took it. This includes Texas Tech winning at Oklahoma by a field goal in 2011 as a 29-point underdog so don't think for a second that the Sooners have forgotten that as it snapped their 39-game home winning streak. We play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, Texas Tech is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (164) Oklahoma Sooners

You have to give a lot of credit to Tennessee which is coming off a huge home win against South Carolina. It got the Volunteers back over .500 but now comes the real test. They were coming into last week off a bye which followed a tough overtime loss against Georgia, so as good as that situation was, it takes an opposite turn this week. The game against South Carolina was its third straight at home and the Volunteers have not fared well on the road, going 0-2 with losses at Oregon and Florida and in those games, they were outgained by 371 and 162 yards respectively. Even against the Gamecocks they were outgained which makes it five times in six FBS games that Tennessee has lost the yardage battle. This is a big number for Alabama to be laying but this is one of a few teams in the country where big numbers do not bother them. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS this season when laying double-digits against FBS opposition and 8'2 ATS in their last 10 games going back to last season. Alabama has LSU on deck but there is a bye week in-between that so there is little chance of a lookahead especially considering LSU is coming off a loss. Alabama is clearly the only elite team in the SEC this season and was further proven this past weekend with Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, LSU and Texas A&M all going down. Alabama has really picked it up on offense as three of its four highest yardage output games have come in its last three games. The defense remains solid as the Crimson Tide are ranked fifth in total defense and first in scoring defense as they have allowed a total of 16 points in their last five games combined. Tennessee is 89th in total offense so it will have a tough time here and considering it has scored more than 10 points only once in the last five meetings with Alabama, the situation seem dire. We have two great situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 29-3 ATS (90.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons including going a perfect 16-0 ATS the last five years. Second, we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-4 ATS (87.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite between 21.5 and 31 points while Tennessee is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (146) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a late breaking play on the under between Boise St. and BYU. Early in the week, the weather situation was still questionable and the total came down quite a bit from its opening number. Had the weather gotten worse, this total would have dropped even more but now that it looks to be a great weather night, we are seeing this number stabilize. Two potent offenses take the field tonight which is why we are dealing with a high total as Boise St. comes in ranked 18th in total offense while BYU comes in ranked 14th in total offense. Taking nothing away from those offenses, but the defenses they have faced has a lot to do with the offensive output on both sides. Taking away the game against Tennessee-Martin of the FCS, the Broncos have faced defenses ranked an average of 80th in the country. On the other side, the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 64th but that is skewed somewhat. They faced Virginia and Georgia Tech, ranked 48th and 13th respectively in total defense and BYU put up its two lowest offensive yardage games on the season in those two contests. Take those rankings out of the equation and the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 77th. Boise St. is ranked 60th in total defense which is very uncharacteristic for a Broncos defense however that ranking is low due to a horrible opening game against Washington where they allowed 592 total yards. On the other side, BYU is ranked 37th in total defense and while it allowed 46 points last week against Houston, two of the first three touchdowns were on a kickoff return and an interception return. Prior to that, BYU had not allowed more than 21 points in any of its games. Another factor to take into consideration is the offenses and they plan on doing. BYU has the 14th ranked rushing offense in the country so we will see a lot of that which keeps the clock running and quickens the game. As for Boise St., starting quarterback Joe Southwick went down with a broken ankle last week and Grant Hedrick is now behind center. While he did go 18-21 last week against Nevada after coming in, he is not going to be relied on his passing here. This is his first game on the road and the Broncos will play it as safe as they can. BYU is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 16-4 to the under in its last 20 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season. Also, both teams fall into a great situation as we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl or more, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (109) Boise St. Broncos/(110) BYU Cougars

We have seen the over come in the last four Thursday night games which can be considered an anomaly considering the typical history of Thursday night scores. More on that later. Carolina comes in riding a two-game winning streak as it easily defeated Minnesota and St. Louis the last two weeks to improve to 3-3 on the season. Additionally, both of those games surpassed the total but not by much and that is a streak the public will ride going into a primetime game. The Panthers had gone under in three of their first four games so high scoring games have not been typical and I believe that will be the case again here. The offense has erupted for 65 points the last two weeks but this is still a pretty average offense as Carolina is ranked 15th in scoring offense and just 23rd in total offense. The Buccaneers started the season with four straight games going under the total but like the Panthers, they have gone over in their last two games. The defense has allowed 31 points in each of those games although a touchdown last week came from the Flacons defense. Overall, this is not a bad stop unit as Tampa Bay is ranked 13th in both total defense and scoring defense and it is coming off a game where it allowed just 291 total yards against Atlanta. The offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and I do not expect it to get any better here. Carolina's defense continues to fly under the radar as it is ranked second in scoring defense and third in total defense and that is not good news for a Buccaneers offense that continues to struggle and is now without its best player in running back Doug Martin. Going back to the Thursday night scenario, games in this range have typically been low scoring as the under is 24-8 (75 percent) over the last five seasons when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. With the last four games surpassing the total, you know where the public action will be this Thursday and it should be best to wait as we will likely see this number go up before kickoff as has been the case the last two weeks. Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone over but last year should have been an under sweep as an overtime touchdown in the second meeting propelled that one to go over the number. Tampa Bay is 7-0 to the under in its last seven home games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half last game. Additionally, the under is 11-4 in the Panthers last 15 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (103) Carolina Panthers/(104) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Middle Tennessee St. comes into this game riding a three-game losing streak but two of those games were on the road and the one loss at home came against a very strong East Carolina game by just a touchdown. The Blue Raiders covered that game with a very similar line they are getting Thursday night and with this being a nationally televised game, you can expect an even greater effort from the home squad. This one is no doubt a contrarian play based on the fact that the consensus reports are huge on the other side yet the line has not moved and has actually come down in some spots. Adding to that is Middle Tennessee has been outgained by every FBS opponent this season. Marshall has won two straight games and hits the road for the second consecutive week. Additionally, this is the Thundering Herd's fourth road game in their last five and they have not been a very strong team on the highway, going 11-41 in their last 52 roadies. Granted, they are considered a top team in the conference this season and so far, they remain the lone undefeated team in the C-USA East Division at 2-0. But because of the expectations and results, they are laying another big number this week after failing to cover at Florida Atlantic in their last game. Marshall is 1-10-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite including going 0-2 ATS this season. While the Blue Raiders defense has struggled at times, they own two important edges here, sacks and turnovers. They are tied for second in the conference with Tulane with 18 sacks in seven games, a mark that ties the team for 30th in the country. They're tied with four teams for second in the country with 20 turnovers gained, 10 interceptions and 10 fumbles recovered. As successful as Marshall has been this season, sacks and turnovers are two areas it struggles in. The Thundering Herd are tied for 91st in the nation in sacks allowed (2.5 per game) and tied for sixth in C-USA and 59th in the nation with 11 turnovers lost. The Thundering Herd have played a schedule ranked 123rd in the nation which is the third easiest schedule of teams ranked in the top 70. Marshall is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 58-26 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is the second meeting of the season between the Patriots and Jets with New England winning the first game by a score of 13-10. Not a whole lot can be taken from that game as it was just the second game of the season and was played in horrible conditions. Still, the Jets lost and will be out for some payback and I feel they are in an excellent spot to avenge that defeat. They have been a very schizophrenic team this season and they lose badly at Tennessee then win in Atlanta the following week only to come back and put up a dud last week at home against the Steelers. I played against New York in that game as I felt it was a letdown spot and sure enough, it didn't show up. Now the tables are turned as the Jets want to bounce back from that and a victory here would put them just one game back in the AFC East. They have alternated wins and losses all season so it seems fitting that they will pull out a victory here. The Patriots are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Saints, handing New Orleans its first loss of the season. New England was staring at a loss right in the face but a fantastic last minute drive set up the game winning touchdown with just five seconds remaining to move the Patriots to 5-1 on the season. This may not be considered a letdown situation from that win because the Patriots and Jets are hated rivals so New England is surely not looking past New York. However, because of the win last week and the ugly Jets loss, we are getting a fantastic line. New England is not the same team from years past and the Jets are better than what most expected yet we are seeing a very inflated line that the public is still going to ride. Turnovers have been the big problem for the Jets and that was the case in the first meeting as they lost the turnover battle 4-0 so it is near impossible to win a game with that disadvantage although they nearly did. Those miscues have put the defense in some tough spots but they are still ranked fourth overall and have allowed more than 328 total yards only once. On the other side, quarterback Geno Smith has improved immensely since that first meeting and the Patriots defense continues to get banged up and will be without three key starters here. The fall into a great situation as we play on home underdogs that are coming off a loss that average more yards per pass attempt than their opponent does which is coming off a win. This situation is 32-13-2 ATS (71.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (398) New York Jets

Jacksonville finally came away with a cover last week as it stayed within the massive number at Denver to move to 1-5 ATS on the season. Normally that would mean possibly laying off the following week but that is not going to be the case here as there is still plenty of value in this number that is severely inflated yet again. The Jaguars have looked a lot better the last couple weeks. Despite losing to the Rams, they outgained them and they are just -33 total yards the last two weeks after being -652 total yards in their first four games. They are also home for just the second time in five weeks as four of their last five games were on the road and while they have been outscored 65-5 in their two home games, those came against the Chiefs and Colts and we cannot be comparing the Chargers to those two teams. Yes, San Diego just defeated the Colts but that means little this week. Indianapolis was coming off a big home win over Seattle while the Chargers were out to bounceback from their last against the Raiders the previous week. Mission accomplished. Now San Diego heads back on the road on a short week in an early game to face the worst team in football and is laying over a touchdown. Good luck with that one. To their credit, the Chargers have exceeded expectations already as not many saw even an average season this year but they are 3-3 and have played relatively well on offense over the last few weeks. Still, this is the far from ideal spot to be in and with a bye coming up, walking out of here with just a small victory is all they can hope for. The Chargers have numerous angles going against them. We play on teams after the first month of the season with a winning percentage of less than .250 going up against teams coming off a win over a team with a winning record. This situation is 57-37-2 ATS (61.6 percent) since 2002 and if the opponent is playing on a short week, the situation is 15-4 ATS (78.9 percent). Going from a home underdog to a road favorite is very rare in this league and does not suit many teams very well. That is certainly the case with San Diego as it is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when going from an underdog to a favorite the next week no matter the venue. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is good of a spot as any for Jacksonville to grab its first outright win of the season. 10* (400) Jacksonville Jaguars

We won with Utah last week at it upset Stanford at home by six points as a 7.5-point underdog. It was a huge victory for the Utes which were coming off a tough home loss against UCLA the previous week but now we have a great spot to go against them. After the win, the fans stormed the field and the celebration was on meaning they could still be celebrating. Utah now hits the road for just the second time this season and the first time outside the state of Utah which puts it into an even more difficult spot. It is the latest out-of-state opener for Utah since 1947. The lone road game resulted in a win at BYU despite the fact the Utes were outgained by 41 total yards while going just 1-14 on their third down conversion attempts. Utah is 3-6 in its nine road Pac 12 games with the three wins coming by eight ppg but the six losses coming by 17 ppg. Arizona meanwhile is coming off a two-game roadtrip as it lost in Washington and then faced USC last week in a very tough spot as the Trojans were playing their first game with a new coach. The Wildcats are now 3-2 and have defeated no team of significance so we have yet to see them defeat a quality opponent but this team is good enough to do so, especially at home where they are 9-2 over their last 11 games. The defense needs to get back on track as it is going the wrong way. Each week this season, the Wildcats have given up more yards and with the exception of the Texas-San Antonio game, more points than the game before. With 11 starters back from last season, this was supposed to be the strong suit of the team but after two lackluster efforts on the road, we will see a much better performance at home. Utah did an awesome job last week in bottling up the Stanford running game but I don't see it happening two weeks in a row. This year, the Wildcats are ranked 14th nationally averaging 262.2 rushing ypg, while running back Ka'Deem Carey is averaging 142.3 ypg, which is fourth best in the country. After hosting Utah this weekend, the Wildcats hit the road yet again for back-to-back games against Colorado and California before the slate puts Arizona back in Tucson for three of their final four conference contests. The Wildcats have a great situation going as we play against teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven points or more, in October games. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (394) Arizona Wildcats

We lost a tough one last week with Wyoming as the Cowboys dominated New Mexico for a half and looked as though they were going to run away with it but they let up and allowed the Lobos back into the game before pulling away late and giving up a garbage touchdown which made it a seven-point final. We will get back on them again this week though as the too close for comfort finish benefits us this time around as there should be no letting up this week. Wyoming is 2-0 in the MWC as it also defeated Air Force and currently is the lone undefeated team in the East Division. This will mark the third straight game against winless conference teams as the three teams combined are 0-8 in the MWC. With three of the final five games on the road, the Cowboys have to take advantage of their big home field edge as right now they are 3-0 and host Colorado St. for a second straight year in this Border War rivalry. The Rams lost last week against San Jose St. at home by a touchdown but they were outgained by 161 total yards so it was more dominating of a loss than the final score states. They are now 2-4 on the season and have been outgained in all four losses while winning the yardage battle in both victories. However one victory came against Cal Poly of the FCS and the other came against UTEP which is 1-5 on the season. Colorado St. has lost both of its road games but both were closer than expected as they are 2-0 ATS on the highway and the ATS loss against the Spartans snapped a four-game covering streak. I think the success at the betting window is giving us a better than expected line. Going back, the Rams have lost 10 straight games on the road including a loss here last season by 14 points, their fourth straight setback in this Border War series. We should see some big plays from the Wyoming offense. Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith has thrown 15 touchdown passes this season, three of them spanning at least 40 yards. Meanwhile, Colorado St.'s defense has been especially porous over the last two games, allowing 796 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns and five scores over 40 yards. Colorado St. is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better while going 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams allowing 31 or more ppg while under head coach Dave Christensen, it is 11-0 ATS in 11 games following a home victory. 10* (338) Wyoming Cowboys

After getting trounced at home against Clemson, Syracuse bounced back with a road win at NC State in its first ever ACC road game. The Orange have now won three of their last four games to get to .500 on the season but asking them to win a second straight road game is too much to ask for, especially in these conditions. Facing Georgia Tech and its triple option attack is bad enough for teams that have seen it before but now Syracuse is having its first look at it and on a normal week no less. This is definitely a surprising start for Syracuse as it was not picked to do much this season following the losses of some key personnel as well as its head coach but the schedule has worked in its favor over the last month. This is the second of four road contests in a five-game stretch for the Orange as this looks to be where the bubble bursts. Georgia Tech meanwhile has lost three straight games and head coach Paul Johnson is hearing about it. After rolling to a 3-0 start to the season, the Yellow Jackets hit a brutal part of the schedule with games against Virginia Tech, Miami and BYU which are a combined 15-3 this year. Those last two games came on the road and after playing two straight ACC games, the Yellow Jackets had to travel to Utah for a game against BYU and that certainly had letdown written all over it. Georgia Tech logged nearly 5,000 miles and traveled three time zones over the last two weeks with a back-to-back road games at Miami and BYU so being able to remain home this week is a big edge. The Yellow Jackets are favored by a touchdown which was the same line they were favored by against Virginia Tech and there is no way the Hokies and Orange are on that same level. Georgia Tech comes into the game leading the ACC in rushing, averaging 290.3 ypg led by running back David Sims and quarterback Vad Lee. The pair have combined for 635 yards this season and 10 touchdowns on the ground. It will be tough for the Orange to contain that. Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS in 11 games under Johnson after a game where they forced no turnovers while Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games coming off an upset win by 14 points or more. Additionally, we play against teams that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points, in October games. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (346) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

People are definitely high on Louisville right now and for pretty good reason. The Cardinals have won all of their games by double-digits and they have dominated the yardage totals in every game. Overall, they are outgaining opponents by 275.3 ypg which is an enormous margin but I feel it is very skewed because they have played no one. Of all of the teams ranked in the top 55 in the Sagarin Power Ratings, the Cardinals have played the easiest schedule of all of them, ranked 125th in the nation. They are just 3-3 against the number as their spreads have been inflated which I feel is the case again here even though this one may seem low to some. Central Florida is 4-1 on the season with the lone defeat coming against South Carolina by just three points. The Knights figure to be one of the few teams that can challenge Louisville in the AAC and this game obviously goes a long way in trying to do so. They went 10-4 last season with three of those losses coming by five, two and six points and the other coming at Ohio St. by 15 points in the second game of the season. Central Florida had its best offensive season since 2007 as it averaged 35.4 ppg and while it is slightly below that this year, it is still a very potent attack. Louisville is second in the nation in total defense and first in the country in scoring defense so it will not be easy for the Knights, but again, the Cardinals have not faced any sort of offense. They have played teams ranked 78th, 101st, 122nd, 103rd and 77th in total offense not to mention playing Eastern Kentucky out of the FCS. The Knights are coming off their worst performance of the season against Memphis but that is not a bad thing as it fits into the bounce angle plus they have had two weeks to get ready for this game. After converting 55 percent of its third downs through the first four games of the season, Central Florida was just 5-14 (35.7 percent) against Memphis but it is much better than that shows. Blake Bortles is the best quarterback that the Cardinal secondary has faced up to this point, and he has an opportunity to score points in bunches against a largely untested Louisville defense. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Additionally, Central Florida falls into an outstanding power situation as we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (307) Central Florida Knights

Seattle bounced back with a home victory over Tennessee following its first loss of the season the previous week at Indianapolis. The Seahawks only won by seven points but it was still a dominating performance as they outgained the Texans by 181 total yards and the only touchdown allowed came by the special teams as Tennessee returned a botched field goal for a touchdown. It was a rare non-cover for Seattle at home and now it hits the road where things have not been as successful. The Seahawks are just 5-5-1 ATS on the road under quarterback Russell Wilson including 2-4-1 ATS as road favorites. This is the first road divisional game of the season and last year, Seattle lost all three of those games. Arizona hung around for three and a half quarters last week against the 49ers as it was down by just two points before San Francisco scored the final 10 points of the game to pull away for the cover. The Cardinals actually outgained the 49ers which was the fourth time this season that they have outgained their opponent. They are looking to bounce back from that effort in San Francisco but they are also looking for some payback here after the Seahawks showed no mercy in a 58-0 thumping in Seattle in the second meeting last season. Arizona has played on Thursday night twice before but both of those games were on the road making this their first home appearance which will give it a big home edge. Seahawks defensive end Chris Clemons, who returned from ACL surgery three weeks ago after leading the team in sacks last year, may miss Thursday's game in Arizona after hyper-extending his elbow Sunday against the Titans. If the Seahawks had a usual six-day turnaround, Clemons might have been ready to play Seattle's next game, head coach Pete Carroll said, but it's doubtful with the Cards game on Thursday. That is a huge loss for the defense. The Seahawks are third in both overall and scoring defense but the tow highest point totals allowed have come in their last two road games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites against opponents that are coming off a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Don't be surprised to see the Cardinals take this one straight up but even a loss should keep them inside this inflated number. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals

This is a good setup for North Carolina as the contrarian situation for both sides is giving us added value. No one seems to be giving the Tar Heels any chance to win here which is typically the case when one team is undefeated and the other is going in the opposite direction. That is why the games are played on the field and not on paper and if there is a time North Carolina turns its season around, this is it. Though on the brink of suffering their fourth consecutive loss in the same regular season for the first time since 2007, coach Larry Fedora thinks the season is salvageable but a win here is almost a necessity. With two ACC losses (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech), the Tar Heels need to run the table to have a shot at getting a share of the Coastal Division title. More important, if they lose to Miami, they must win five of their last six games to get the six wins needed for bowl eligibility. Miami is in the AP top ten for the first time since 2009 and has not started a season at 6-0 since 2004 so it is entering some unchartered territory. This team is experienced, deep and athletic but with the exception of beating Florida, the wins have not been impressive. The Hurricanes were actually outgained by the Gators by 201 total yards so the fact they came out of there with a victory is surprising to begin with. They are very potent on offense which many think will cause problems against the Tar Heels defense but defensively, the Hurricanes could struggle here. They are ranked first in passing defense but senior quarterback Bryn Renner is scheduled to be back in the starting lineup after missing the loss at Virginia Tech because of a foot injury. He leads ACC quarterbacks in passing with his average of 279.3 ypg. North Carolina would like to get a running game going as well as this is not an impossible task against a Miami defense that has let up close to 170 rushing yards per game in 2013. Not only will a good rushing attack help North Carolina stay balanced on offense and keep the Miami defense guessing, but it will also help keep the Hurricanes' offense off the field. This is the first home night game since 2009 for North Carolina and as long as it doesn't overly excited, this is a big edge for the Tar Heels. Miami has covered four straight games and North Carolina has been on the losing ATS side in its last three games and those are the streaks that I like going against. The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS coming off consecutive wins both straight up and against the number. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (306) North Carolina Tar Heels

The Colts are off to a 4-1 start this season and they are now once again perceived as a public team in the betting markets. They come in following three straight wins including a big road victory at San Francisco and last week, they knocked Seattle from the rank of the unbeatens. With a home game against Denver next week, this presents the perfect sandwich spot to go against the Colts. Indianapolis is actually in the same position as San Diego was in last week as the Chargers were coming off a win as a home underdog against the Cowboys and now finds themselves as a road favorite. Teams in this situation have had a tough time in this reversal situation over the years. Additionally, while this is just the third road game of the season for the Colts, it is the third in the last four weeks including two separate west coast trip which makes it an even tougher travel situation. San Diego is now 2-3 on the season following a loss at Oakland last week despite the fact it outgained the Raiders by 128 total yards. This is just the third home game of the season for the Chargers as they lost to Houston, a game they should have won as they blew a 21-point lead, and then defeated the Cowboys. This is a really big game for the Chargers as they likely are already out of the divisional race with Denver and Kansas City but getting to 3-3 puts them right in the mix in the Wild Card race. The Chargers offense has been playing very well this season under the new coaching staff and system as they have scored touchdowns on 26.4 percent of their drives which is fourth in the NFL. San Diego's per-drive production is a direct result of its revitalized passing game, with quarterback Philip Rivers currently ranking sixth in the league in passing. The Colts are ranked sixth in the league in passing defense but they have played against only one quarterback that is ranked in the top 20 and that is a huge difference. Not counting the Jaguars game, which we cannot do in the case for most opponents that have gone against them, the Colts have been outgained in two of their other four games and are -72 yards in those four games combined. Next week's game against the Broncos cannot be overlooked for the Colts as it will mark Peyton Manning's much-anticipated return to Lucas Oil Stadium and the biggest game of the season to date for Indianapolis. San Diego has covered five straight games following a loss and it will add to that run again tonight. 10* (230) San Diego Chargers

We played against the Patriots last Sunday and while it was a spot of going against them since they were undefeated, it was also a spot on playing Cincinnati which was coming off a loss at Cleveland the previous week. This week we have a very similar scenario in our favor only it actually favors New England. The Patriots head home after suffering that first defeat where they are 2-0 on the season but to be fair, they really have not been tested. Playing the Jets and Buccaneers is not the same as playing the Saints but they have a ton of motivation on their side. As does quarterback Tom Brady who is steaming after not putting up a touchdown last week, thus snapping his 52-game streak with at least one touchdown pass. Ironically, he was chasing Drew Brees who has 54 straight games with a touchdown pass. It was also only the fourth time since 2001 (when Brady took over in New England) that the Patriots had been held to six points or less. How did they do the previous three times? They won 44-13, 31-10 and 40-7 so its safe to say he bounces back pretty well. Additionally, the Patriots' offense should improve with the probability of Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley joining Danny Amendola in the lineup. New Orleans is now 5-0 following its win at Chicago last week as it seems to have put last year's disaster behind them. Many figured there would be a turnaround for the Saints so it is not a huge surprise they are off to a 5-0 start especially considering they have played the 26th ranked schedule in the NFL and I think even that isn't low enough. This is the second straight road game for New Orleans and its second straight road game on grass which may not seem huge but considering how strong of a team they are indoors, it does in fact make a difference. While the offense is up to its old tricks, it is the defense that has made the most progress, going from being ranked dead last in total defense last year to being ranked 11th this season. The Saints are 0-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games played on grass fields. The Patriots defense has been good enough to carry the offense that has yet to find its stride due to a depleted receiving corps. They are ranked second in points allowed this season so they do have the ability to slow down the Saints to a degree. Chicago did a very good job as they held them to 357 yards and forced four field goals and that is the gameplan to slow down the offense as much as possible. Favorites are now 13-4 ATS in New Orleans's last 17 games. 10* (226) New England Patriots

The Texans have lost three straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season and the natives are getting restless. After making it into the Divisional Playoff Round in each of the last two seasons, Houston once again came into the season with high expectations. Three straight losses and people are calling for quarterback Matt Schaub to be benched and head coach Gary Kubiak to be fired. I think it is a little premature for this as Houston is just two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Yes, Schaub has tossed a pick six in a record four straight games but those things happen and not all were his fault to begin with. The interesting part is that the Texans have outgained all five of their opponents despite the losing record and they are currently sitting at seventh in total offense and first in total defense. Those rankings tell me that this is a very strong team that is getting scrutiny for no reason just yet. The Rams snapped their three-game losing streak last week as they took out the hapless Jaguars at home by 14 points to improve to a similar 2-3. It was a much needed victory as a loss their could have sent the season into a complete downward spiral but now St. Louis comes in with some momentum and confidence but I think it will be short lived. The Rams were actually outgained by the Jaguars last week and have been outgained in four of their five games with the only exception being Atlanta where they outgained the Falcons by 28 total yards thanks to a late garbage score. Even that seven-point loss is looking worse after the struggles that Atlanta is going through. Prior to the Jacksonville game, the Rams defense had allowed 31, 31 and 34 points in their previous three games ad I expect another poor effort here. St. Louis is giving up an average of 169 yards per game on the ground during its last three games and on the season, it has allowed 11 touchdown passes while just picking three passes and has allowed an 7.4 ypa average. The Rams offense has not been much better as it is ranked 29th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and facing this defense will be a challenge. In particular, the injury-plagued Rams offensive line figures to have problems with the active Houston front seven. The Texans are first in passing defense and third in defensive ypa average and while the rushing defense has struggled at times, the Rams pose no threat as it is close to the bottom in all rushing categories. The Texans are 0-5 ATS which is a streak I like going against as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. I expect the Texans to easily break that skid here. 10* (214) Houston Texans

The Steelers are winless and are looking at missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time ever under head coach Mike Tomlin. They are 0-4 following their loss in London against the Vikings so the bye week could not have come at a better time. Although extremely rare, making the playoffs at 0-4 has been done in the past so Pittsburgh is looking at making a run to see what happens. And it will mean starting here this Sunday in New York as it needs to put together a complete game. The Steelers still possess a top ten defense but it is one that has not created a turnover yet this season and that is a rarity for this stop unit. On the opposite side, the offense has 11 turnovers so it is safe to say that a team with a -11 turnover margin differential will not be seeing the postseason. The thing is that Pittsburgh is only two games out of first place in the AFC North so no team is running away with this division. The Jets are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Falcons on Monday night and now have a short week to get ready for a team that has had two weeks off. That is not an easy spot to begin with. The Jets surprised some people with a 2-1 start but after getting throttled at Tennessee, everyone was on their case once again. Now off a big win, people are back on the bandwagon and that is how this league works as opinions change from week to week. Hats off to quarterback Geno Smith who put together that game winning drive which culminated the best game of his young career as he put up a 147.7 passer rating. Now it is time to face a real defense as the first five opponents are not on the same lever as the Steelers defense. On top of that, under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 16-2 against rookie quarterbacks so giving him two weeks to prepare is only icing on the cake. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over six times in his last two games, but now has a legitimate running back with the return of rookie Le'Veon Bell, who scored the Steelers' only two rushing touchdowns on the season during his NFL debut against the Vikings. The Steelers are also part of an incredible situation backing winless teams. Underdogs that are at least 0-4 and are coming off a bye are 21-4 ATS the last 25 instances with two of those four defeats missing by just a point. To make matters even more desperate for the Steelers, they went 0-4 in the preseason for they are 0-8 ATS and SU which they finally break this week. 10* (215) Pittsburgh Steelers

We have had a fairly good read on North Texas and a lot of it has to do with where the game is taking place. We played against the Mean Green at Ohio near the start of the season and then backed them the next week at home against Ball St. Last week, we went against them in a smaller free play as they were favored on the road. They are 9-4 at home since the start of the 2010 season but they have gone 2-14 on the road over that stretch and going back further, they are 8-41 over their last 49 road games going back to 2006 after last week. They are now 0-3 on the road and 0-2 at home this season and I feel this is another good spot for them coming off a loss despite outgaining Tulane by 133 total yards which is a huge edge for a losing team and one that cannot be detected when just looking at the final score. Middle Tennessee St. is 3-3 on the season but it is an inflated 3-3. one of those wins came against Western Carolina so the Blue Raiders are only 2-3 against FBS teams and even that is pushing it as one of those wins came in overtime and the other came at home against Memphis by only two points. A common theme for all of those games however is the fact that Middle Tennessee St. was outgained in each and every one of those. Taking that Western Carolina game out and they are getting outgained by 136.8 ypg in those other five games. The overtime win did come on the road but they lost the other two games on the highway. Middle Tennessee St. went 8-4 last season including a win against North Texas at home by 17 points so there will be some payback against it here by the home team as well at North Texas trying to avoid a 0-2 start in its first season in C-USA. The North Texas defense allowed a season-low 227 yards against Tulane. It was the fewest yards allowed by North Texas since holding Texas Southern to 185 total yards in 2012 and it is the fewest yards allowed against an FBS team since the 2006 season. This is something that it can build upon as Middle Tennessee St. comes in with the 95th ranked total offense in the nation as well as the 91st ranked scoring offense. North Texas head coach Dan McCarney and his players left little doubt of just how important they believe their game Saturday against Middle Tennessee is to their hopes of posting the Mean Green's first winning season since 2004. The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while going 13-6 in its last 19 games following a loss. 10* (192) North Texas Mean Green

Michigan got its Big Ten season off to a good start as it easily took care of Minnesota last week to improve to 5-0 overall. The Gophers looked over-matched in terms of talent, they had trouble keeping up with Michigan's skill players, the Wolverines put together five offensive touchdown drives and even recorded a defensive score. While the Wolverines will be going on the road this week, and as a favorite no less, the talent level on the other side is not that much different so on paper, they should roll once again. The problem is that these games are not played on paper but I am not overly concerned about the environment which will no doubt be tough. Michigan got a wake up call at Connecticut in its only other road game and that close call will only help it out here as any lack of focus could result in an upset. I certainly do not see that though. Penn St. has been all over the place this season as it opened with a narrow win against Syracuse, rolled over Eastern Michigan, lost to Central Florida, rolled over Kent St. and then last week, the Nittany Lions got off on the wrong foot in conference play with a somewhat surprising 44-24 loss at Indiana. It was Penn St.'s first ever loss to the Hoosiers. Indiana was 0-16 previously against the Nittany Lions so that is a story in itself right there. Last year was supposed to be a rough season for Penn St. but instead it went 8-4 and while expectations were high coming into this season, things just are not going well. The Wolverines field one of the nation's top rushing defenses. Ranked ninth nationally, Michigan has allowed just 90.4 ypg this season and overall, the Wolverines are ranked 13th in the nation in total defense, yielding only 305.0 ypg. This is bad news for Penn St. and freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg who has not been tested that much yet. The Nittany Lions have faced stop units ranked 62nd, 98th, 32nd, 111th and 104th. The Nittany Lions and Wolverines will be meeting for the first time since 2010, with Penn St. having won the last three games in the series so Michigan knows what it is going up against even though not many of the players have seen Penn St. Starting next year, Penn St. and Michigan will meet annually as Big Ten East Division rivals. To the Nittany Lions credit, they have been solid following a loss as they have rebounded their last five times by covering the spread next time out going back to last season but those games were against Kent St., Indiana, Purdue, Virginia and Navy. Look for the Wolverines to stay undefeated rather easily here. 10* (179) Michigan Wolverines

Wyoming is 3-2 entering its second MWC game of the season and I feel that it is in an exceptional spot this week. We played against the Cowboys in their last game at Texas St. and they got clobbered by the Bobcats. I felt they were way overpriced following three straight wins but now it is just the opposite as they are undervalued in this one. Not only are they coming off that loss, they are coming off a bye week as well so they will be more than amped up to get on the field and take care of business. Wyoming is 16th in the nation in total offense and it is coming off its worst game of the season as it put up just 356 total yards including 64 yards rushing in that game against Texas St. That means no hold barred this week and the Cowboys should have no issues moving the ball at will. New Mexico improved to 2-3 on the season with a win over rival New Mexico St. The Lobos piled up 608 total yards in that game and they have put up 1,189 total yards over the last two games so clearly this is a team that Wyoming cannot look past. New Mexico actually leads the country in rushing offense which is no doubt a surprise but I have to put an asterisk by that as the Lobos best three games were against New Mexico St., UNLV and UTEP and those teams are ranked 123rd, 122nd and 118th in the country in rushing defense. Granted, the Lobos have helped put them in those rankings but those teams have not been good in addition to that. The Cowboys defense is not a stout unit at all but the fact it is 45th in scoring defense shows it bend don't break style. Wyoming has the biggest threat on the field in quarterback Brett Smith. He will enter the New Mexico game Saturday third in the nation in total offense averaging 384.4 ypg. And that's after his numbers dropped thanks to the Bobcats holding him to 275 yards in San Marcos. The Wyoming offense is designed to take advantage of his skills as it lines up with wide splits on the line and give Smith a variety of formations in an up-tempo attack. The Lobos might be better off working the clock, but Wyoming wants Smith to have as many touches as possible. Still, balance has been the key as Wyoming has run the ball 184 times and has tossed it 219 times. New Mexico is ranked 109th in total defense and an even worse 112th in passing efficiency defense which is a killer against this offense. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record while New Mexico is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. 10* (148) Wyoming Cowboys

Virginia Tech came away with a win and cover last week against North Carolina and that helps us this week by going against the Hokies once again. Why? Because they were outplayed by the Tar Heels and that is not crying over spilt milk because we lost the game. North Carolina won the yardage battle by 35 yards which isn't much but that should at least put them in the hunt for a victory but a 3-0 turnover differential did them in. The Hokies remain home for another noon kickoff and as mentioned last week, early kickoffs at Lane Stadium are a huge difference compared to nighttime or even late afternoon kickoffs. Additionally, last weekend was homecoming and that could make this one even more of a lethargic atmosphere. Virginia Tech has outgained all five of six opponents but three of those came by a margin of 21 yards or fewer so it has been far from dominating and overall, it has outgained its five FBS opponents by only 20.4 ypg. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, following its third straight victory which came at home against Virginia. That was a defensive battle the whole way and I foresee another similar outcome here as the Panthers defense may have finally turned the corner to carry this team which was the plan at the start of the season. The Panthers escaped at Duke in their only road game of the season but they were favored there and now they are catching points and a significant amount in my opinion. Pittsburgh is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog and it has seen this many points only twice since 2008 as it got 17 points last year at Notre Dame and narrowly lost in overtime while catching 13.5 points at USF and winning outright back in 2008. Yes times have changed but this is a very solid team that is making strides. As mentioned last week, the Hokies were playing with revenge against North Carolina and they will be doing so again here but if last week was any indication, the Hokies playing with revenge means little. Especially considering the fact that the Panthers have won three straight meetings in this series. There is good news on the injury front for Pittsburgh as quarterback Tom Savage is recovering from concussion-like symptoms and is expected to play. That is big for the passing games as in receivers Tyler Boyd (106.2 ypg) and Devin Street (111.2 ypg), Pittsburgh is one of just three teams nationally with two receivers averaging better than 100 ypg. Boyd (5.8) and Street (5.2) rank fifth and sixth in the ACC in receptions per game, the are the only duo among the league's top 10 pass-catchers. The Panthers are 14-5 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Hokies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (115) Pittsburgh Panthers

We played on San Diego St. last Friday and admittedly got a little fortunate with the victory as the Aztecs were able to cover in overtime after blowing a 21-point, fourth quarter lead. The fact they didn't lose after doing the best they could to do so may give them some momentum heading into Thursday night but when all said and done, this is not a very strong team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Giving up a 21-point lead at home is downright horrible and San Diego St. has now allowed 40 or more points in three of its five games on the season. Additionally, it has been outgained in four of those games with the lone yardage advantage coming against New Mexico St. which is off to a 0-6 start. After winning its opener against Colgate of the FCS, Air Force has lost its last five games and four of those have not even been close. The Falcons are coming off a loss at Navy on Saturday morning by 18 points as turnovers were the difference. They lost that battle 3-0 and it is difficult to win against any team with that sort of differential. Despite the losing streak, Air Force at least has a positive trend going as while it has been outgained in each of the last five games, the margin has gotten smaller following each game so while the wins have not been coming, the play on the field has been better. Additionally, the Falcons have played the 49th toughest schedule in the nation. The scheduling of this game is not in the favor of the Aztecs. This is the second consecutive game in which the Aztecs have had a six-day turnaround. San?Diego St. is the only team in the country this season to play consecutive games less than a week apart and this marks its third game in 13 days. Even making that more difficult is that the Aztecs now have to get ready for the triple option in a very short amount of time. To compound matters more, four of San Diego St.'s first five opponents have run pass-oriented offenses, so this marks a drastic switch for the Aztecs on a short turnaround. Air Force is ranked 11th in the nation in rushing offense and while San Diego St. is 39th in the country in rushing defense, as mentioned, it has not been tested. On the other side, Air Force has allowed opponents to put up an average of 493 ypg, and the Falcons are ranked dead last nationally in third down conversion defense. This is not a good sign against a potent San Diego St. offense but the Falcons are coming off their best game on defense and the young stop unit may finally be starting to find that needed chemistry. 10* (106) Air Force Falcons

The Giants incredibly horrible start to the season continued last week as they lost to the Eagles to fall to 0-5 straight up and against the number. There are problems all over the place. Quarterback Eli Manning is throwing too many picks and getting sacked too many times, the running game is non-existent and the defense has not been able to stop anyone. At some point this season, barring an incredible turnaround, this team will be unbettable and while many are thinking that now sitting at 0-5 ATS, they were still overrated but now we can finally get the chance to buy them low. Backing teams on 0-5 ATS runs may seem suicidal but in fact, it is a very strong situation as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 record and they were the early talk of the NFL but they have dropped their last two games since then and are once again feeling the heat. They got away with a win against Cincinnati as they had to rally late and the other two wins came against Pittsburgh and Minnesota and the only reason one of those teams has a victory is because they had to play each other in London two weeks ago. Chicago is getting outgained on the season and while it isn't by much, it proves how it has been far from dominating. The favorite has come through in each of the last two Thursday night games and with the Giants sitting at 0-5, the consensus is on the chalk again this week and at a very inflated number. Since coming to Chicago, Quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. New York has not dropped its first six games since going 0-9 back in 1976 and this is a record this team does not want to approach. It is imperative to get the running game going and while they have not been able to do it thus far, this could be the game it comes out. Brandon Jacobs will be starting the game with David Wilson out but the Bears defensive line is extremely thin with Henry Melton and Nate Collins out and Stephen Paea still hurting. The Giants defense needs to get pressure on Cutler to try and create turnovers, something Cutler is known to do. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home and while the nightmare season could continue, we are getting a healthy dose of points that will at least give them their first cover of the season. 10* (101) New York Giants

***THIS IS NOT A PLAY ON ATLANTA ATS***

This a is two-team teaser on Atlanta and the Over. Tease the spread down as well as tease the total down. I typically do not play a lot of teasers but this one sets up well on Monday night. The Falcons are 1-3 and in desperate need of a victory as they currently trail the undefeated Saints by three and a half games plus they already have a loss to New Orleans. Atlanta has dropped its last two games at Miami and at home against New England despite outgaining both opponents. The Falcons are two games below .500 for the first time in the Matt Ryan era and mired in their first losing streak since 2009 going into Monday night so the question remains if last year was a fluke or if they are just having bad luck. I believe it is the latter. The Jets are 2-2 and while they could be sitting at 3-1, they could also be sitting at 1-3. they have outgained every opponent which is a plus but the Patriots have been the only real opponent they have seen. The Jets may have lost some confidence after being beaten up and exposed by the Titans last week and they've already lost both of their road games. Turnovers have really hurt New York as it is 29th in the NFL in scoring offense but 13th in total offense so they are moving the ball well but unable to convert. Facing a banged up Falcons defense could be the cure and while the Jets have dealt with plenty of injuries to their receivers, though they should be bolstered this week by the return of Stephen Hill from a concussion. Falcons defensive end Kroy Biermann is out for the year, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least half the season and linebacker Akeem Dent won't play either. Atlanta's offense is ranked 29th in the league in touchdown percentage from inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Last week's 30-23 loss to New England was especially troubling, as the Falcons produced only one touchdown with six red-zone possessions. In two of their three losses, Ryan had the ball inside the opponents' seven-yard line at the end of the game, with a chance to pull out a win. This I feel is what is getting us a lower than normal total and it is the lowest number that the Falcons have had all season so teasing it down more adds to the value. 10* Atlanta and the Over Two Team Tease

We played against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and they managed only two field goals in a 17-6 loss. Part of the reason for going against them was due to their big win the previous week over Green Bay and part of the reason for playing them this week is due to the loss suffered last Sunday. Cincinnati is sitting at 2-2 and could be 3-1 as it blew a late lead against the Bears in its season opener but it is still tied atop the AFC North with the Ravens and Browns. Making this home game even more important is the fact that four of Cincinnati's next five games are on the road so protecting the home field where it is 5-1 its last six games is imperative. The Bengals offense has struggled the last two games but I believe that changes here. The Patriots improved to 4-0 with their win over Atlanta last Sunday night and while we were on the wrong side of that one, it was one of those games that could have gone either way. The Patriots were outgained, albeit slightly, by Atlanta and they have been outgained in two of their four games thus far. New England has been solid as a road underdog over the last few years but considering where this line has gone from its opening is a signal as 89 percent of the ATS wagers in this game have gone on New England but the line has gone the opposite direction. Look for the Bengals to try and establish the run to set up the passing game. With Patriots defensive lineman Vince Wilfork out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, stopping Cincinnati's run game will be New England's biggest challenge. In his past six games at home, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 112 of 181 passes (61.9 percent) for 1,208 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 99.0. On the other side, the Patriots are still not sure if wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski will be active but either way, the Patriots will find it tough going on offense. The Cincinnati defense is ranked 13th in the league in total defense (334 ypg), 13th against the pass (235 ypg) and 10th against the run (99 ypg). We play against road underdogs or pickems after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (420) Cincinnati Bengals