This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit picked up a very emotional win last week over the Rams and while there is talk about the Lions coming in flat, this is not going to happen in a Divisional Playoff game. The Lions did enough on offense in the first half to sneak out the win against one of the best teams over the second half of the season and the Lions have a better matchup and remain at home where they are 7-2 with those two losses coming in games where they won the yardage battle in both but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in each game. The one concern is the Detroit defense that has regressed throughout the season and it has been lit up through the air over its last four games, allowing 323 or more yards in each one. However, that has not led to much scoring as the Lions have allowed an average of 21.8 ppg and this has been a significant improvement after giving up 26 or more points in their previous five games with an average of 29.8 ppg. Tampa Bay is ranked No. 20 in offensive DVOA and while it put up 32 points against the eagles last week, that defense did not show up and the Buccaneers put up 22 points in their previous two games against the Saints and Panthers. Tampa Bay played a soft schedule in the worst division in the league and it went 1-3 against the top ten in the NFL with the only win coming against Green Bay which was the only win on the road against a playoff team. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the classic rest vs. rust argument as San Francisco is coming off its first round bye while sitting starters in its season finale against the Rams. The 49ers should be just fine as most important, they are as healthy as they have been all season and time off for an offense that is No. 1 in net DVOA and a defense that is No. 4 in net DVOA is not going to be affected. San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in seven of the eight major statistical categories with the only exception being passing yards allowed and that was minimal. While this is a big number, the last 10 San Francisco wins have come by at least 12 points. Green Bay came through for us last week in Dallas as it jumped ahead big early in the game and never looked back in the wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys. The Packers are playing their best football of the season but had a great matchup last week which is not the case this week. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to bring it as he is coming off another efficient performance with a 157.2 passer rating but faces a better equipped defense this week. The Packers have averaged 28 ppg over their last nine games so they come in confident and with momentum and they had the edge of getting out to that big start last week. on the other side, this is still the eighth worst defense in the league and Dallas failed to make adjustments yet the Green Bay defense was on the field for 89 snaps. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia endured a horrible ending to the season as it lost two straight and five of its final six games and no one wants a part of this team heading into the postseason. That being said, the Eagles arguably have the best Wild Card matchup of any team with a lower seed and there are the other doubters that want no part of the Buccaneers that come limping into the postseason as well. It was a weird freefall for a team that started 10-1 and had the NFC East in its grasp but they were unable to capitalize as it started a second half stretch with games against Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas is tough for any team to not only succeed but to recover after and Philadelphia could not do the latter. The Eagles defense fell apart and now sits No. 29 in DVOA but face the second lowest ranked offensive DVOA team in Tampa Bay which is only ahead of Cleveland as the Buccaneers are ranked No. 20 so taking advantage of the Eagles defense will not come easy. The Buccaneers were a flawed team this season, but they won the NFC South and they did it with a winning record but played in the worse division in the NFL. Tampa Bay went 4-2 in its own division and overall, played the No. 25 ranked schedule and while it has success against the lower rated teams with a 9-4 record against teams outside the top ten, it went 0-4 against the top ten teams. The Eagles may not be playing like one now, but that is where they still are. The Eagles offense will be facing a middle of the road defense as Tampa Bay in No. 14 in DVOA but the biggest factor they are dealing with are injuries but some are precautionary and the injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are not serious enough to keep them out. 10* (151) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. Early money has come in on Detroit but we did not seen a line move early but the juice indicated it was coming and eventually did Monday afternoon. We knew this line had to get at least to 3.5 with the Lions being a public team all season and yet this is a bad spot for the home team. Detroit was still in the running for the No. 2 seed up until the final week but needed both the Eagles and Cowboys to lose and because that did not happen, the Lions get a bad matchup in the Wild Card opener. After opening the season 8-2, Detroit went 4-3 down the stretch although that did include the controversial loss against Dallas and now it enters the playoffs with the possibility of not having tight end Sam LaPorta available. The Detroit offense is still very good but will have to rely on Jared Goff more than it would like to as the Rams have had a top 10 defense in DVOA over the second half of the season especially against the run and the interior can slow down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Offensively, the Rams are the No. 2 offense in DVOA in the second half of the season behind only the 49ers and have been No. 1 in EPA since their bye week after Week 9. They have gone 7-1 since then with the lone loss coming in Baltimore in overtime while averaging 31.3 ppg not counting Week 18 when the starters were out. Detroit has a defense ranked No. 13 in DVOA and regressed in the second half, especially against the pass. Over the last 20 years, home teams that did not make the playoffs last season are 13-39 ATS (31 percent). Additionally, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (149) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay made a late run to grab the final seed in the NFC playoffs while clinching the spot against the Bears in Week 18. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, the Packers have won seven of their last 10 games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 128.6, which was the fourth straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has 10 games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Seven of these have been over the last eight games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 6 in offensive DVOA and moved into the top 10 in Non-Adjusted Total DVOA. Dallas has good metrics on defense but have a tough matchup here. The Cowboys apply significant pressure on the quarterback which is bad for some teams but Green Bay has a great offensive line that is ranked No. 2 in Pass Block Win Rate and No. 5 in Adjusted Sack Rate. Defensively is where the Packers struggle as they have the second lowest DVOA of all playoff teams with some bad games in the mix but in 17 games, they have allowed fewer than 24 points 11 times. We all know that the Dallas offense has been great at home and it will no doubt move the ball but we know Green Bay can keep up and the line is reflecting the potent Dallas defense and based on the actual numbers, it is too big of a line in the postseason against a team playing very well. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining seven or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Houston won three of its final four games and coupled with the Jacksonville implosion, the Texans won the AFC South. Their only loss over that stretch was against the Browns but that was without C.J. Stroud playing at quarterback and with a defense not close to full strength so we can toss out that matchup. Excluding Week 18, the Browns have allowed 29.4 ppg on the road compared to allowing 13.9 ppg at home so their overall DVOA of No. 2 defensively is skewed as it is No. 1 at home but a mere No. 23 on the road. And that includes the game against the Stroud-less Texans which was their best road game of the season on defense, allowing 250 yards. While the Houston offense was not at full strength, the defense was not healthy either. Houston allowed just over 20 ppg at home and while included in that was the 36 points allowed to the Browns, the defense was not close to 100 percent. This was the game where Amari Cooper went off for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards but he faced off against backup cornerback D'Angelo Ross while defensive end Will Anderson, Jr. and several other players on defense were out. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a great story for the Browns and he has playoff experience which is considered an edge over Stroud but the latter has not played like the typical rookie and he has the benefit of playing this game at home which takes a lot of pressure off. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (142) Houston Texans

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFP Championship Dominator. Michigan and Washington both survived on last second stops to make it to the CFP Championship with the Huskies getting the same amount of points as it got against Texas but has a much tougher matchup. The Huskies have not played a team this physical and that goes for both sides of the ball. The formula will be simple for Michigan on offense, run the ball and keep running the ball. The Wolverines have the best 1-2 punch in the backfield in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards who have combined for 1,518 yards and 28 touchdowns and while Michigan finished just No. 60 in rushing offense, it has a great matchup here. The Huskies are ranked No. 129 in Rush Success Rate Allowed, No. 119 in EPA per Rush Allowed, No. 132 in Line Yards, No. 128 in Stuff Rate and No. 96 in Power Success Rate Allowed. Simply put, Washington will get overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage. Shortening the game will be in the Wolverines favor and they can do it with long, sustained drives. Washington has an explosive offense as we all know but now will face a defense it has not seen this season. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,218 yards and 33 touchdowns heading into the Sugar Bowl and against Texas, he was 29-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns. He worked from a mostly clean pocket but that will not be the case here. The Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in Total Pressures and No. 2 in Pressure Rate and they were in the Alabama backfield all night. This is where Penix will find some difficulties as his Adjusted Completion Percentage drops 17 percent while throwing five touchdowns and throwing three interceptions in nearly 140 pressured snaps. As for the Michigan passing defense, it is ranked No. 3 in EPA per Pass Allowed and it held Alabama to not a single explosive play which came in with 35 completions of 20 or more yards. A clean game by not giving the ball away and staying disciplined, Michigan is No. 3 in Fewest Penalty Yards, gives the Wolverines the cover. 10* (288) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Year. Green Bay and Minnesota caught a break last week with Seattle losing to the Steelers meaning either team would make the playoffs by winning their final two games and it was the Packers who got the job done in Minnesota with a dominating 33-10 win. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, Green Bay has won six of its last nine games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 125.3, which was the third straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has nine games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Six of these have been over the last seven games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 9 in offensive DVOA. Recent experience is going to help the Packers here as last season, they had an identical 8-8 record with a game against a divisional foe at Lambeau Field to earn a playoff berth but lost to the Lions 20-16. Chicago has turned its season around as well which has likely saved Matt Eberflus his job. The Bears have won five of their last seven games but four of those have been at home with the lone road win over this stretch being an ugly 12-10 victory at Minnesota. Chicago has done it with a vastly improved defense and while it did shut down Jared Goff and a potent Lions offense, of their other six wins this season, all have come against offenses ranked No. 22 or worse in offensive DVOA. Quarterback Justin Fields has been better since returning from injury but has only one game with a passer rating over 100 in the six starts since coming back. Green Bay has only five turnovers in its last seven games which negates the Bears defense that has 18 takeaways over their last six games. 10* (464) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. After opening the season 10-1 and having the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Eagles have lost four of their last five games and are now on pace for the No. 5 seed. They are coming off an awful loss against the Cardinals and now have to win and hope the Cowboys get upset at Washington with win the NFC East with the latter looking unlikely. The main focus now is playing a complete game heading into the playoffs no matter where they end up and that starts with the defense that has slid down to No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Whie they let a bad Cardinals offense do what they wanted, Philadelphia has a better matchup here to get right. The Eagles have failed to cover their last five games and are getting value here. In the meeting with the Giants on Christmas, they were favored by two touchdowns and we are now seeing an eight or more point line swing with no one wanting any part of them right now. The Giants put up a solid effort against the Rams as they had a chance to win but missed a last second field goal to make it three straight losses following a three-game winning streak. New York has covered its last two games and five of its last six after a 2-7-1 ATS start so the markets have tried to adjust and with an overadjustment here. The Giants have benefitted from 17 takeaways over this recent six-game stretch which has created favorable situations but that cannot be banked on here. New York remains No. 30 in offensive DVOA and have failed to reach 300 yards in eight of their last nine games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. With Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh all winning last week, Denver has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. We won with the Broncos last week but we expected a better effort on offense which was not the case as they tied for their second lowest scoring output of the season. Jarrett Stidham made his first start over Russell Wilson and he was not much better but he was far from awful and considering the players were likely playing harder because they knew they had a different quarterback, regression likely happens in the second game. Overall, Denver is ranked a respectable No. 18 in offensive DVOA but unlike last week facing a No. 29 ranked defense, the Raiders are ranked No. 11 in defensive DVOA, the Raiders are ranked No. 11. As for their own defense, the Broncos are No. 30 despite a solid effort against the Chargers. Las Vegas was also eliminated for a playoff berth after losing to Indianapolis but we feel there is to play for on this side. The Raiders have played well and seem to care a lot more since interim head coach Antonio Pierce took over and he is still coaching for a possibility to take over full time next year and players have been vocal about keeping him. The offense was good under Quarterback Aidan O'Connell who targeted wide receiver Davante Adams 21 times against the Colts, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns with O'Connell passing for 299 yards. The running game has been a bright spot as since moving into the lineup, Zamir White has 285 yards on 59 carries (4.6 ypc) the last three weeks. The Broncos are ranked No. 31 in rushing defense at 137.6 ypg while the pass rush is mostly nonexistent so Las Vegas can excel again while laying a short price at home. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Tampa Bay had momentum and a favorable schedule on its side but came up small last week in its regular season home finale, losing to New Orleans by 10 points which forces it to win this week to win the division. The Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 4-0 which helped put an end to its four-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield having an efficient game but he tossed two interceptions in there, the most he has thrown this season. Despite early money coming in on Tampa Bay, the number has gone down slightly and anything under a touchdown is well within play for what is on the line, the opponent and the situation. While the Buccaneers are 4-4 on the road, two of those losses were in Buffalo and San Francisco while the other two were against playoff bound Houston or Indianapolis. Carolina was shutout at Jacksonville after scoring a season high 30 points the previous week against Green Bay and the latter was the aberration as the Panthers have failed to reach 20 points in 12 of their 16 games. They are ahead of only the Jets in defensive DVOA and they have averaged just 14.8 ppg which is nearly a touchdown less than their opponents defensive average. Quarterback Bryce Young showed signs of life against the Packers, which have a defensive DVOA of No. 28, but he regressed against the Jaguars which was more in line for his entire rookie season. The defense has performed better than the offense but not by much and Carolina brings in zero home field advantage with its severely inflated attendance numbers. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The playoffs are on the line and the winner of this game not only guarantees a playoff spot but also keeps the AFC South title within reach with some help from Jacksonville. Houston shook off a loss against Cleveland as it easily took out Tennessee and had its 13th game of the season with one or fewer turnovers and that will be a factor here. The Texans welcomed back quarterback C.J. Stroud who missed two games with a concussion and he did not miss a beat, completing 75 percent of his passes, his highest of the season, for 213 yards and a touchdown and while he did not throw for a lot of yards, he did not have to as the Texans built a big lead. Houston is ranked No. 12 in net DVOA which is seven spots higher than Indianapolis and despite having a rookie quarterback, they have the edge at quarterback. The Colts have played better over the second half of the season as they have won six of their last eight games to get into this position. They have won three straight games at home and laying a short price which is going to make them a public play come later in the week. The offense has been up and down with Gardner Minshew, as since taking over as the full time starter, he has four games with a passer rating of 100 or better but also has five games with a rating of 76 or lower. One consistency has been the defense as they are No. 27 in points allowed at 24.5 ppg and gets even worse at home where they give up 25.8 ppg and 358 ypg. The Colts won the first meeting despite getting outgained but the Texans were just 1-4 inside the redzone in what was just the second game of the season for Stroud and he has clearly progressed since then. 10* (469) Houston Texans

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our Sugar Bowl Annihilator. Washington proved many wrong in the Pac 12 Championship as it came in as a 10-point underdog and beat Oregon by a field goal in a game it pretty much controlled throughout. There were certainly some struggles for the Huskies as they played down to the competition a few times but that is not a worry here and stepped up in the bigger games when needed. They have a dynamic offense as they are ranked No. 5 in the country in yards per play, No. 6 in offensive EPA, No. 1 in passing yards per game, and No. 11 in scoring offense. Michael Penix, Jr. was the Heisman Trophy runner up and while his numbers speak for themselves, he counters the one big Texas strength which blitzes around 30 percent of the time. Penix gets the ball out in a hurry as he has a pressure to sack ratio of 3.2 percent and this offense will be able to pick apart the Longhorns secondary. The Longhorns have played the No. 3 ranked schedule in the country but that is a skewed ranking. They faced five backup quarterbacks this season and while the defense was very good, it was far from elite as they ranked No. 26 in yards per play and No. 13 in opponent EPA. Against the pass, they finished No. 36 in opponent yards per attempt and now faces the best quarterback it has seen all season. Texas is not a great run blocking unit and relies on explosives and it is unclear how healthy wide receiver Xavier Worthy is as he was injured in the Big 12 Championship and if he is not near 100 percent, that is huge. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is playing great but his air yards/attempt is shorter than the national average and having a big down field weapon that is not healthy makes it harder. 10* (282) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Rose Bowl Dominator. It was a trying season for Michigan off the field but it overcame the distractions, and suspensions of head coach Jim Harbaugh, to roll through its season at 13-0 as it has been playing with a chip on its shoulder from day one. The one big hit against the Wolverines was an easy schedule that was No. 59 in the country but that is no fault of theirs and they got the job done. Eight of their 13 wins came against teams that went bowling so it was not all that bad. Michigan was terrific in the key areas as it was No. 1 in the nation in fewest penalties, No. 2 in turnover margin, No. 1 in scoring defense, No, 2 in total defense, No. 3 in turnovers lost and No. 4 in passing efficiency. That defense applies pressure and gets off the field on third down where it finished No. 13 in third down conversion percentage defensively. Alabama needs to be balanced but running the ball could be an issue as it will be facing a similar unit like it did against Texas A&M and finished with 23 yards on 26 carries. Alabama is very good on defense but not its typically great unit as the Crimson Tide are No. 21 in defensive EPA and No. 18 in yards per play allowed. Michigan is an above average rushing team but not elite yet should get a good push here and its key will be quarterback J.J. McCarthy who remains underrated despite being a former five-star recruit, a future first-round pick and a second-year starter. In the only loss for Alabama, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers lit up the Tide and McCarthy finished the season No. 7 in passing efficiency and No. 2 in completion percentage. 10* (280) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Divisional Game of the Month. It took 15 games, but the Broncos finally benched Russell Wilson with the writing being on the wall for quite some time. Since a five-game winning streak, the Broncos have lost three of their last four games including a bad loss at home last week against the Patriots as a touchdown favorite with Wilson coming off his ninth sub-200 yard passing game. It will now be Jarrett Stidham taking over the offense and because of the switch at quarterback, we have seen the line drop around two points or more from the opener. This is a great spot for Stidham to fall into as there is little film for the Chargers to look at and he faces a Chargers pass defense that has allowed the third-highest quarterback rating in the league this season at 99.1. Los Angeles is coming off a hard fought loss against the Bills two points on a last second field goal which was the first game for interim head coach Giff Smith and it was the classic game of a team getting up for the new coach in his first game taking over. It has been a rough season for the Chargers and it was the end for head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after they gave up 63 points in a loss to the Raiders. Los Angeles has been the underdog in six games this season, and it has failed to win any of those contests. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (130) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Chicago is coming off a win last week against Arizona for its fourth win over the last six games with both losses that could have gone the other way and it is still not yet eliminated from playoff contention albeit a slim chance. This is the final home game of the season for Chicago where it has won four straight games with the two losses prior to those coming by a combined nine points. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the fifth-fewest points, second-lowest passer rating and fourth-fewest rushing yards which is a recipe for disaster for the Falcons that have struggled away from home. The Falcons are coming off a season-high 29 points against the Colts where they have scored 28, 24, 25 and 29 points and even despite that output, they have scored the ninth-fewest points in the NFL this season. The reason is Atlanta has been awful away from home as it is averaging fewer than 14 ppg where it is 2-5 including losses against Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona and one win coming against the lowly Jets. The Falcons defense has been what have kept games competitive as they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards passing per game and eighth-lowest completion percentage which may surprise many but this has come against the easiest schedule in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 65-31 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (110) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. First off, coaching matters in this league and Antonio Pierce has come closer to winning the job in Las Vegas after being hired on October 31 as the interim head coach as he has gone 4-3 including a win last week in Kansas City as an 11-point underdog. This is the ultimate letdown spot based on that though and this also comes after a 63-21 win over the Chargers which ultimately led to the firing of Brandon Staley. The Raiders have won the turnover battle over the last two games as they were outgained last week and won the yardage battle against the Chargers by just 52 yards despite the 42-point win. In the game against the Chiefs last week, quarterback Aiden O'Connell was 0-10 over the final three quarters and comes into another tough environment. The Colts are coming off a bad loss at Atlanta which is their second loss over the last three games but both of those were on the road. This is just the third home game for the Colts since the end of October and they close out the season with the final two games at home which is a good situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Indianapolis is currently in the No. 7 spot, one of four teams at 8-7 with one of those being Houston which comes to town in the season finale. The Colts will get Michael Pittman Jr. back after missing last week. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 21-4 ATS (84 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Arizona lost to Chicago by 11 points and it remains on the road where it is 1-7. Six of those losses have come against teams that are either in the playoffs or still are not eliminated and the five games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his six starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him and he is coming off his best passer rating of his six starts. We are seeing a reverse line move here with 94 percent of the money coming in on the Cardinals but the number has gone up. Overall, Arizona has played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Eagles snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Giants last Saturday but it was still not a pretty victory. Of their 11 wins, eight have come by just one possession including five of the six at home. Philadelphia has failed to cover each of its last four games and that would normally make it a play on team but this is not a number to be laying. The Eagles regained the lead in the NFC East by one game over Dallas and still have an outside chance of the overall top seed in the conference but will need to win out and have the 49ers lose their final two games as San Francsico owns the head-to-head and conference record tiebreakers. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (119) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. This has turned into a big game for Dallas to have any shot at the NFC East following a pair of road losses at Buffalo and Miami as it is now 10-5, trailing the Eagles by one game. The bad news is that Philadelphia is closing with the Cardinals and Giants so the division seems unlikely but it is mostly about momentum right now. The Cowboys are locked into the No. 5 seed as they cannot drop down based on head-to-head wins over the Rams and Seahawks and one of the best parts about this spot is that it is a Saturday game meaning they do not know about the Eagles outcome so they will be out to win and win big. Despite where it is in the standings, Dallas is one of only four teams in the league that is ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive DVOA and a return home is just what it needs at this point. Everyone is aware of the cowboys struggles against winning teams but this is the spot to that that reversed. While it is a get right spot for the Cowboys, this is an awful spot for the Lions which are coming off a win over the Vikings which got them their first division title in 30 years. The locker room afterwords told the story and this is a tough situation to keep it going. Detroit is tied with the 49ers and Eagles with an 11-4 record but it is behind both teams in the two tiebreakers based on conference record and strength of victory and the way the schedule sets up, those two teams are not going to lose. Dallas has covered six straight games following a loss by six points or less, winning those games by an average of 19 ppg. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our College Football Game of the Year. Motivation is one of the biggest factors when it comes to bowl games and this looks like a one-sided affair in that regard in the Arizona Bowl. Wyoming is coming off a solid 8-4 season and has a chance to get to nine wins for the first time since 1996 and it be out to do that behind 10th year head coach Craig Bohl who announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys are down only one starter due to transfer and another because of injury but other than that, the entire rest of the roster is healthy and available to play. Wyoming has not been elite in any one aspect on either side but it does bring in top 50 ranked defense across the board against a much tougher schedule and catches a break against this Rockets offense. Motivation will be paramount here. It was another great season for Toledo as it comes in 11-2 and has not had a losing season since 2009 but it is considered a disappointment. The Rockets opened with a two-point loss against Illinois before reeling off 11 straight wins to get to the MAC Championship but the perfect conference season ended with a 23-14 loss against Miami Ohio and they failed to achieve their goal. Getting up for a game after that is not an easy task especially against an opponent that is hard to get up for. Toledo was one of only three teams to outgain every opponent this season but played a schedule ranked No. 122 which is the seventh easiest schedule of teams ranked in the top 100 and second easiest of teams ranked No. 75 or better, only behind 13-0 Liberty according to Sagarin. Now the Rockets will have to work their No. 34 ranked offense without MAC Player of the Year quarterback Dequan Finn who entered the transfer portal. It was one of only two offensive players lost to the portal but a devastating one. 10* (272) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our Music City Bowl Dominator. It was not a good season for Auburn as it went 6-6 which included a four-game losing streak in September and October against a brutal stretch of games against Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU and Mississippi. Auburn went 0-5 against teams ranked in the Top 30 but 6-1 against every other team, the lone loss coming against New Mexico St. coming in a bad scheduling spot late in the season. The Tigers ended the season with a disheartening loss against Alabama but that game was well over a month ago so there has been plenty of time to recover from that. Auburn faced the No. 30 ranked schedule so the overall numbers have been affected by that but it still has the superior roster. The transfer portal has not affected the Tigers much as only five players entered, none of which were starters, and three starters on defense have opted out but only one of those was among the top eight in tackles while their best secondary player Jaylin Simpson, who accepted a Senior Bowl invite, will still play. The Terrapins opened the season 5-0 but against five teams not playing in the postseason and finished 2-5 over their last seven games with the wins coming against Nebraska and Rutgers. Maryland has taken a much bigger hit with players not participating in this game. It loses its best player for this game in quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, the all-time Big Ten leader in passing, who entered the transfer portal and that presents a big hole to fill as the other quarterbacks have combined for 13 pass attempts. Beyond Tagovailoa, Maryland will be without its starting tight end, its best linebacker and two elite defensive backs. 10* (267) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our Cotton Bowl Annihilator. The future looks very bright in Missouri. The Tigers are coming off a 10-win regular season, their first since 2014, while bringing in a top 25 recruiting class according to Rivals and they have been very active in the transfer portal. Now, Missouri wants to concentrate on the present and its preparation for this bowl game is showing it is the team that wants this one much more. Missouri has nearly its whole team intact with the exception of a pair of defensive starters who are out with injuries and a backup linebacker in the transfer portal. That is it. This is a building block game for the Tigers and have a dream matchup against Ohio St. which is not at full strength but that will not diminish beating a name team such as the Buckeyes. The Tigers have a dynamic offense that surpassed 500 total yards in five of their last nine games headlined by quarterback Brady Cook, wide receiver Luther Burden III (1st Team All SEC) and running back Cody Schrader (1st Team All SEC) while the defense was a top 40 unit. Ohio St. has finished in the top 6 in each of the last nine seasons, making it to the College Football Playoff five times including three of the previous four seasons and now it has been relegated to the Cotton Bowl which is not exactly what the Buckeyes had planned. The transfer portal took quarterback Kyle McCord and starting receiver Julian Fleming along with several backups but the Buckeyes also have a massive list of opt-outs highlighted by All American receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. This line has seen a five-point shift and for good reason and will likely still move so grab it early. 10* (263) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our Gator Bowl Enforcer. It was a disappointing season for Clemson which comes in 8-4 although it did win its final four games so there is momentum but that is offset with the players that will not be participating in the Gator Bowl. Despite the solid run at the end of the year, this is a game Clemson is not interested in which is proven by the numerous opt-outs and transfers and this is the first season since 2010 that the Tigers will not reach double-digit wins. This is not an explosive team on offense and they will be without starting receiver Beaux Collins who was second in yards and touchdowns so they will be relying on their running game. The typical stout defense was in form again this season as Clemson was No. 7 in total defense including No. 5 against the pass. This unit will not be close to the same however as the Tigers are down four starters including leading tackler and First Team All ACC linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and First Team ALL ACC cornerback Nate Wiggins. Clemson will start two true freshman on the outside at cornerback. Kentucky did not have nearly the same finish as after opening 5-0, the Wildcats went just 2-5 down the stretch but two of those were by one possession and the other three were against Alabama, Georgia and Missouri, all ranked in the top 10. Kentucky has lost starting edge Keaten Wade to in the transfer portal to Colorado but he is the lone starter that will not be playing. Second Team All SEC running back Ray Davis, who is taking off for the NFL Draft, is actually going to play which is a rarity and a big lift for the Wildcats. Big number because it is the Clemson name. 10* (258) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Cleveland has won three straight games and is one win away from clinching a playoff spot and the situation could not be better. The Browns are 7-1 at home and got the extra home game on their schedule with this being their final home game of the season unless they can catch a lower seed after the first round in the playoffs. Cleveland has been dominant at home where it is 7-1, the lone loss coming against Baltimore in Week Four. The defense has led the charge as the Browns are allowing only 11.8 ppg and 198 ypg on a paltry 3.7 yppl and face one of the worst offenses in the league. The Browns remain No. 1 in overall defensive DVOA and face off against the No. 32 offensive DVOA in the league. The offense has gone through four different starting quarterbacks but they have found their guy as Joe Flacco has rejuvenated the offense as he has thrown for 326.8 ypg in his four starts with 10 touchdowns and he just needs to cut down on the picks. The Jets defense will be a challenge as they are No. 3 in DVOA but like Cleveland, they are better at home than on the road. New York has definitely slowed down as after allowing more than 27 points only once in its first nine games, it has given up 28 or more points in four of their last six games. Offensively, they are coming off a solid game against Washington but this is a different test after their last home game with New England on deck. 10* (102) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our Pop-Tarts Bowl Annihilator. NC State is quietly coming off a great season at 9-3 and closed the season with five straight wins including four against bowl teams all by at least a touchdown. The ACC against the Big 12 is a mismatch on paper and name but not in this case with the transfer portal and opt-outs along with coordinator changes hurting Kansas St. and not the Wolfpack. The offense is in good position as it came alive down the stretch with great balance and a rejuvenated running game. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong sat out three games midseason and was replaced by MJ Morris who was not very good and is not in the transfer portal. Armstrong started the last three games and was exceptional with 648 yards on a 70 percent completion clip with six touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wolfpack rushed for 208.7 ypg over those final three games and they are 8-0 when rushing for more than 112 yards. Kansas St. lost four close games this season all of which were spaced out enough to never have the Wildcats in the conversation for a big season. The transfer portal and NFL Draft opt-outs hit the offense the most as quarterback Will Howard is out along with second-leading rusher Treshaun Ward, top catch receiver Phillip Brooks and leading yardage receiver tight end Ben Sinnott. Kansas St. wins with field position advantage, special teams play, cutting down mistakes and winning the turnover battle and those intangibles cannot be controlled which cannot go into a handicap especially with the personnel losses. Kansas St. has allowed 113 or more in every game but four including eight of its last nine. 10* (253) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our Fenway Bowl Dominator. This line is a big overreaction to the finishes for both teams but we have to look what each faced. Boston College opened the season 1-3 and then won five straight games before closing 0-3 and while it played in the weak ACC, it is still a power five conference. The Eagles were hit hard by injuries at the end of the season but the month-long time off will help with some of those plus extra practice time for the new players. They lost hardly anyone in the transfer portal and come in more battle tested as the Eagles played eight power five teams with mixed results but as least there were on the schedule. Boston College is playing this game right down the street from campus and while a tropical destination is always nice, playing in their backyard is a big advantage. SMU closed strong with nine straight wins including a victory over Tulane in the AAC Championship but the Green Wave were not the same team and the Mustangs overall have played the No. 155 ranked schedule. They played only two power five teams, losing both, and the AAC was bad all-around which inflated their stats, wins and scoring differentials. SMU had only three wins over bowl teams with the other two coming against Memphis and Rice which were by a combined nine points away from home. Quarterback Preston Stone was lost for the season and Kevin Jennings was below average in his only start against Tulane. Boston College will run and that is how it succeeds in this matchup as it is 6-0 when rushing for 185 yards or more, 0-6 when not while SMU is 11-0 when allowing fewer than 189 rushing yards, 0-2 when not. 10* (250) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our Texas Bowl Dominator. Texas A&M is an absolute mess right now, not even close to resembling the team it had just a month ago. The coaching staff has completely turned over although Elijah Robinson, who was hired as the Syracuse defensive coordinator, will continue as the interim head coach so that is a plus but it is jumbled after that. The Aggies have had eight starters and six backups enter the transfer portal and additionally, four starters have opted out with potentially two more that could not play. An already disappointing season that ended at 7-5 looks to have no chemistry and limited motivation heading into this game. Third string quarterback Jaylen Henderson has made three starts and has not been bad but that was with a full complement of players around him and now he is without the right side of his line and his two top receivers. Defensively, they were gashed even more with seven starters to miss this one. Oklahoma St. put together a great season at 9-3 but was overmatched against Texas in the Big 12 Championship. That being said, the Cowboys are in far better shape as they have lost only three offensive players to the transfer portal, none of which were close to team leaders. Oklahoma St. has a potent offense that can take advantage of the depleted Aggies defense and it put up 39 or more points in five of its last eight games and only struggled twice over that span against UCF which came one week after beating Oklahoma, and against the Longhorns. Texas A&M opened -4.5 and has flipped but not much despite the mass exodus so the value is still there with the Cowboys. 10* (248) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Holiday Bowl Annihilator. USC came into the season with playoff aspirations and it opened 6-0 but there were signs that this team had no chance in making that playoff run. A blowout loss at Notre Dame where they were -5 in turnovers sunk their ship and they closed the season with only one win on their last six games with the lone victory coming against California by one point. No one wants a part of this team at the betting window because of the finish and of the personnel they will be down for this game. There is still a whole lot of talent even if some of the headliners are gone highlighted by quarterback Caleb Williams as well as second leading receiver Brenden Rice and leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd but there is plenty of depth unlike other teams that could not get away with losses like those. Defensively, this team was bad and they are down only one starter and they defensive front is still strong enough to get behind the line. Louisville had its chance for a really great season but a loss to Kentucky when it was ranked No. 9 cut that short and the Cardinals were unable to get past Florida St. in the ACC Championship which relegated them to a lower than expected bowl game. They bring in a top 50 offense and a top 20 defense so they have been very solid but they played a schedule that was ranked No. 55 from a conference ranked lowest of all power conferences. While USC lost an abundance of talent, Louisville has not gone unscathed as leading receiver Jamari Thrash and leading rusher Jawhar Jordan have opted out to get ready for the NFL draft. This number is too big of an overreaction. 10* (246) USC Trojans

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our Duke's Mayo Bowl Enforcer. West Virginia exceeded expectations this season as it got to eight wins including a 6-3 record in the Big 12, which was good for a tie for fourth place and the Mountaineers will be ready to keep it going with momentum into next season. They lost a fair amount of players to the transfer portal but no one of real significance that helped them to the9ir 8-4 record and West Virginia has a big edge in the ground game. The Mountaineers finished No. 3 in the country in rushing with 243.3 ypg thanks to a No. 5 ranking, including first in the Big 12, in time of possession behind an excellent offensive line. They rushed for 210 or more yards in five of their last seven games and faces a defense that was awful down the stretch. North Carolina also finished with eight wins but it was an opposite effect as the Tar Heels came in with high expectations and it started great with a 6-0 start but then the wheels fell off. The Tar Heels lost to Virginia which sent them spiraling and after that, they only defeated FCS Campbell and an injury-riddled Duke team by just two points. Now they come into their bowl game down a slew of starters, nine at a minimum in total, due to transfers, injuries and opt-outs. The big win obviously is quarterback Drake May which means Conner Harrell will make the start after throwing only six passes this season. Leading receiver Tez Walker is out as are three of the other leading five pass catchers. North Carolina is down five start on defense, a unit that was No. 98 overall including No. 89 against the run. We have seen a significant line move but it is warranted. 10* (244) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our First Responder Bowl Dominator. Texas St. is coming off its first winning season since 2014 and will be playing in its first ever bowl game so there will be plenty of motivation for the Bobcats. They have an offense that can crank it up as they are No. 110 in the country in total offense and No. 17 in scoring offense and comes in with a very balanced attack, finishing No. 23 in both passing and rushing. Quarterback TJ Finley was excellent as he passed for 3,287 yards with 24 touchdowns and just eight interceptions while rushing for another five scores. They have big play ability and while their problem was giving the ball away where they are No. 119 in turnover margin at -8, they face a Rice defense that is not a ball hawking unit as it had only 12 takeaways and the Owls are No. 116 in turnover margin. The Bobcats own defense was not great but are No. 1 in the country in tackles for loss. This is not good news for Rice that had its moments on offense but struggled down the stretch behind backup quarterback AJ Padgett. The Owls need to control the tempo in this game as they are not a team that can play catchup and they will try to grind it out on the ground. They are 5-0 this season when rushing 30 times or more but just 1-5 when they do not and could be in a position to pass more than it likes to. Of the ix Rice victories, one came against an FCS team while the other five came against teams that finished with no more than four wins. The Owls were 1-6 this season when allowing more than 21 points. 10* (237) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Game of the Year. San Francisco is rolling along with six straight wins, all by double digits, and this is a perfect sell high opportunity. The 49ers have defeated five potential playoff teams over this stretch (Seattle twice) but four of those are going the wrong way, Philadelphia, Seattle and Jacksonville, with the other coming against Tampa Bay which is right at .500. San Francisco has overtaken the No. 1 seed in the NFC with outright wins over the Eagles and Cowboys so it is in great position to keep that, even with a loss here, as the remaining schedule is in its favor. Because of the recent run, this line has risen and is not a true indicator of the differential between these two teams. The 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in Net DVOA and Net EPA but Baltimore is right there. The Ravens are No. 2 in Net DVOA and tied for No. 2 in Net EPA as they bring in an identical 11-3 record and sit atop the AFC, one game ahead of Miami with a game at home against the Dolphins next week. Baltimore has won four straight games and eight of its last nine games with the only blemish coming against Cleveland where it blew a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a last second field goal. While San Francisco is the only team in the NFC with a DVOA in the top five in both offense and defense and the Ravens are the only team in the AFC to stake that claim as well. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog in his career so these have been the spots he has thrived in. Here, we play against favorites averaging 385 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (481) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Underdog Game of the Month. Chicago nearly won its third straight game but could not secure a Hail Mary to end the game against Cleveland as it blew a 17-7 lead going into the fourth quarter. The recent success in addition to three straight losses by one possession is overvaluing the Bears as they are favored for only the third time this season and by their biggest amount. The defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season but will be facing their first mobile quarterback since playing Kansas City in Week Three. Chicago is still No. 24 in offensive DVOA as Justin Fields has been adequate but has regressed over the last four games. They are in a bad spot coming off that disheartening loss and the Bears have played down to the opposition going back to last season as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Arizona lost to San Francisco by 16 points and it hits the road where it is 1-6. Five of those losses have come against teams that are either in or still alive in the playoffs and the four games they have not covered are all against the aforementioned playoff teams. The return of Kyler Murray has improved the offense, scoring 24 points or more in three of his five starts after scoring 24 or more points only three times in the first nine games without him. He brings that added running dimension that can keep the Bears off balance and something they have not seen. Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (473) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is a big reverse line move as major money has come in on the Colts yet the line has risen from the opener of -1.5. The Falcons are coming off a bad loss against Carolina where they managed just one touchdown but that game was played in horrible weather and now they are back home in the dome. They are 4-3 at home with two of those losses coming by a combined seven points. Here, we have another game with a quarterback change as Taylor Heinicke will make his third start and he is far from a downgrade from Desmond Ridder. Expect to see more running this week after the Falcons has been held to fewer than 100 yards in each of their last three games and will be facing a bad Colts rushing defense. Atlanta is still in the running for first place in the NFC South as they trail Tampa Bay by one game and the remaining schedule is favorable but this is the big one as this is their final home game of the season. Indianapolis has been a pleasant surprise in the AFC as it is currently in a playoff spot at 7-7 as the Colts have won five of their last six games. Two of those wins were on the road but one was against Carolina and the other needed overtime against Tennessee. The Colts do not do anything particularly good with their offensive running game being the biggest strength and they have been a very fortunate team as they are No. 6 in the Luck Rankings with the biggest factor being 5-2 in one possession games. 10* (458) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Seattle kept its playoff hopes alive with a win on Monday night against the Eagles in the final minute to move to 7-7. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Seahawks which have now covered three straight games and that gives us value as this number has gone up from the opener of -1.5. Give credit to Drew Lock for the winning drive against Philadelphia and he has played two solid games replacing Geno Smith but the latter is expected back and that is not a real big advantage. The Seahawks have regressed in their offense overall and especially in the running game as they got to 100 yards last week for the first time in five games and hitting the road is an issue as Seattle is 0-5 in its last five road games. Tennessee has had a rough season as it is now 5-9 following an overtime loss against Houston and Case Keenum and that was its fourth loss by four points or less. The Titans were coming off a couple of solid games offensively against Indianapolis and Miami but could not do much last week after jumping out to a 13-0 lead. This week, Ryan Tannehill could over at quarterback for Will Levis who has an injured ankle and even though he lost his job, he is one of the better backups in the league. There will be no quit for this team with head coach Mike Vrabel and he has been one of the best coaches in these spots. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Despite three straight losses, Pittsburgh is not dead yet as it is 7-7, tied with Denver for tenth place in the AFC and just a game out of sixth place but there are a few teams it has to leapfrog. The schedule is not great with the final two games of the season at Seattle and at Baltimore making this their final home game of the season. There is talk of head coach Mike Tomlin sitting on the hot seat which is pretty laughable considering what he has had to deal with at the quarterback position and another change is in store this week with Mason Rudolph getting the start. He has seen limited action the last three seasons but it can be an edge with limited film. The Bengals were left for dead when Joe Burrow was lost for the season but behind Jake Browning, they have won three straight games after losing his first start against the Steelers. Cincinnati is now 8-6 and in position to get into the playoffs but like Pittsburgh, the schedule is not on its side with a game at Kansas city on deck and then the season finale at home against Cleveland. The recent runs have seen a complete line shift from that first meeting as the Bengals go from a home underdog against Pittsburgh to a road favorite against the same team. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our Potato Bowl Dominator. It was a great start but a bad finish for Georgia St. which enters its bowl game on a five-game losing streak. The only positive from that is the fact those losses were against bowl teams but stating the obvious is this is another bowl team they face and the Panthers were blown out in five of those games. overall, they played nine straight bowl teams over the last nine games and the defense was only good in two of those games as the Panthers faced some strong offenses which they are going to see here. Georgia St. is No. 118 in total defense and allowed over 30 ppg and squares off against a Utah St. offense that finished No. 1 in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense in the Mountain West Conference. The issue is that the Aggies are going with Levi Williams at quarterback who played only four games but led the offense to 44 points in a win over New Mexico in his only start in the season finale. The Aggies are 6-2 when coming up with 400 yards or more and are very balanced with a running game that came alive in the second half of the season. Georgia St. has the better quarterback with Darren Grainger but he will be playing with some of his key parts gone. Leading rusher Marcus Carroll, who had 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns, transferred out to Missouri while leading receiver Robert Lewis, who had 881 yards and seven touchdowns, transferred to Auburn. Even though the Panthers are facing a below average defense, they do not have enough to keep up. 10* (228) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our Birmingham Bowl Dominator. Troy is coming off another great season and brings in a ton of momentum into its bowl game. The Trojans are coming off a 10-2 regular season and then won the Sun Belt Conference Championship over Appalachian St. and Troy is one of the hottest teams in the country going back to last season as it has gone 22-2 over its last 24 games. Tt is the defense that has been great all year as they are No. 15 overall and No. 10 in points allowed and have given up more than 17 points only three times in their last 11 games. The Trojans have solid offense which has picked up steam over the second part of the season led by quarterback Gunnar Watson who is playing very efficient right now with a 18:1 TD:INT ratio his last eight games. Troy will be without head coach Jon Sumrall who left for Tulane but it will be seamless with defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato serving as the interim head coach. Duke also lost its head coach as Mike Elko took the head job at Texas A&M but it will be a seamless transition as well as associate head coach Trooper Taylor will man the team. The problem for Duke is that it has been hit hard in the transfer portal. Quarterback Riley Leonard is gone even though he has not played since October as Grayson Loftis has started the last four games and was fine. The issue is everywhere else as the Blue Devils lost leading rusher Jordan Waters to affect the offense but the defense has been ravaged as five starters entered the portal which crushes the unit that is No. 46 in the nation in total defense. 108 (222) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our Camellia Bowl Annihilator. Motivation is a big factor in bowl games and Northern Illinois will have plenty of it. The Huskies opened the season 1-4 but went on to win five of their last seven games with both losses coming by one possession which was the case with five of their overall six losses. So they have the momentum and the motivation comes from the fact Northern Illinois has not won a bowl game since 2011, going 0-7 in its last seven bowl games and these players want that win after missing the postseason last year. Some of those one possession losses could have gone the other way to give the Huskies a better record and that should have been the case as they outgained 10 of 12 opponents including three out of four games against bowl teams, the only exception coming against Toledo. Quarterback Rocky Lombardi did not put up big numbers but he is efficient and he posted a 9:1 TD:INT ratio over his last nine games. The Huskies will lean to their running game which is No. 41 in the country and came on really strong at the end. Arkansas St. finished 6-6 and defeated Texas St. 77-31 to become bowl eligible but there is no a more misleading score as the Red Wolves were outgained 533-475 as they had three defensive touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. They faced a fairly tame schedule and were still outgained in eight of 12 games as the defense is a liability. The Red Wolves finished No. 127 in total defense and went 0-6 this season when allowing 425 or more yards. 10* (224) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our Gasparilla Bowl Enforcer. finished 6-6 in its first season in the Big 12, including a 3-6 record in the conference, which is not what it was hoping for but of the four new entrants into the conference, the Knights are the only one that is in a bowl game. Things could have been better as three of their losses in the Big 12 were by a combined five points including Oklahoma in there and on the season, UCF outgained eight of 12 opponents. This is a great matchup as the Knights have the No. ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 233.2 ypg and it went 6-2 when they gained 225 or more yards rushing. They face a Yellow Jackets defense that could not stop the run as it finished No. 131 in the country, allowing 225.7 ypg and they went 1-5 when they allowed that average or higher. UCF is balanced as it does have a passing game that can push it and it put up 200 yards rushing and passing in the same game seven times, and went 5-2 so that will be key. Georgia Tech is coming off a solid season under first year head coach Brent Key as it also went 6-6 and that was a fair record based on the numbers. Win the yardage and win the game and vice versa as the Yellow Jackets were 5-1 when outgaining their opponent and 1-5 when they did not, the lone win coming in the miracle against Miami. The offense finished No. 31 overall but their defense is not good enough to hold up here. 10* (219) UCF Knights

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Year. The Rams are peaking at the right time, coming off a win over Commanders to make it four wins in their last five games to get to 7-7 and this is a crucial game where they can gain a tiebreaker over the 7-7 Saints. One key factor is the health of Los Angeles on the offensive side and it is humming along right now. The Rams have moved to No. 7 in offensive DVOA against a schedule ranked No. 7 and they are the highest ranked 7-7 team in the league. One huge key for the offense is a running game that has come to life the last four games behind Kyren Williams. While going 1-4 against the top ten and all losses against Super Bowl contenders, they are 6-3 against the rest of the league and this is their final home game of the season with games remaining against the Giants and 49ers. The Saints have played the easiest schedule in the league and backing that up is the fact they have been favored in 12 of their 14 games. New Orleans lost and failed to cover both games as an underdog and have actually been the unluckiest team in the NFL which is to their credit as its 7-7 record has played out with what should be a 9-5 record as it has won by 18, 22, 11 and 34 points this season, but it is just 3-5 in one-score games. But this is where the strength of schedule needs to be factored in as three of those lopsided wins were against the Patriots, Panthers and Giants which are a combined 10-32. The offense continues to struggle with a net DVOA ranking of No. 20 with a pretty non-existent running game and while Derek Carr is coming off his best passer rating game of the season, he is not the same on the road. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our Frisco Bowl Enforcer. This game opened at -8.5 in most places and gradually started going up and then took a big jump when it was announced that Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher will not play as he went into the transfer portal. He had a very average season with just 2,155 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions so the line move does seem steep because of his absence but Marshall is in worse off shape. Cole Pennington will take over as the starter and he saw significant action in three games and it was not pretty as he completed just 62 percent of his passes for just 437 yards with no touchdowns and six interceptions. The Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0, three of which were by one possession, then suffered through a five-game losing streak before winning two of their final three games to get bowl eligible. UTSA got off to a slow start as senior quarterback Frank Harris missed two of its first four games but then returned to win seven straight games to open AAC play and the Roadrunners had a chance to go to the conference championship but lost to Tulane as they were -3 in turnovers. This is not the ideal bowl to be in but it is close to home and the motivation will be there for Harris so end his amazing career where he accounted for over 14,000 total yards and 120 total touchdowns with a big win and not only for himself but for the program that can win its first ever bowl game in its fifth try and fourth under Harris. 10* (215) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Both Philadelphia and Seattle are leaking some oil and the Eagles are in the spot to turn it around. They have lost two straight games in blowouts against San Francisco and Dallas which came after a pair of close wins over Kansas City and Buffalo so the schedule has been brutal. It eases up starting this week and they control their own destiny in the NFC East with their remaining games against the Giants twice and the Cardinals so of they win out, they will have the better conference record than Dallas. Despite the recent struggles, Philadelphia remains No. 8 in net DVOA and just as important, it is No. 2 in special teams DVOA. What has really hurt the Eagles of late has been their rushing defense but Seattle has done nothing on the ground as it has rushed for fewer than 90 yards in eight of 13 games and it is No. 15 in the league in rushing EPA. The Seahawks have lost four straight games to fall a game under .500 and the playoff prospects are getting bleaker so this is a needed win but it is not a good matchup. The Seattle defense has struggled all season and especially against above average offenses with the three best games coming very early in the season and the Seahawks have dropped to No. 26 in defensive DVOA. They were without quarterback Geno Smith last week against San Francisco and while he returns this week, he has struggled this season with an 89.1 passer rating after posting a 100.9 rating last season. Despite the big majority of money being on the Eagles, we have seen this line come down. 10* (327) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the OLD DOMINION MONARCHS for our Famous Toastery Bowl Dominator. The Hilltoppers closed the season with a pair of wins over Sam Houston St. and Florida International to finish 7-5 but it was a very unimpressive 7-5. Western Kentucky did not register a win against a team above .500 with its best win coming against 6-6 South Florida in the season opener and its other five FBS wins were against teams that finished a combined 17-43. Now the Hilltoppers head to Charlotte down three starting offensive linemen that combined for 2,287 snaps as they went into the portal. While the quarterback situation looks stable with Austin Reed, that could change. On the other side, three starters, which were three of the top eight tacklers, are transferring so they are thin on each level. Old Dominion also closed the season with a pair of wins to become bowl eligible and the Monarchs are in much better shape from a personnel standpoint. They are down their third leading tackler and third leading receiver but other than that, the Monarchs are in fine shape. The 6-6 season could have been even better as two of the losses against Virginia Tech and undefeated Liberty were the only non-competitive defeats as the other four losses were by a combined 16 points with three of those coming against current bowl teams. Old Dominion can take advantage of the Hilltoppers depleted offensive line as it finished No. 34 in the country in tackles for loss. 10* (202) Old Dominion Monarchs

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Unfortunately we have seen this number come down as it opened at 5.5 and was hit hard early but Jacksonville is still catching a hook over a key number and with the majority of money on Baltimore despite the early line move, we should not see this number go anywhere and up if it does move. The Jaguars were looking good in the AFC South following a win over Houston but they have lost two straight games against teams from the AFC North and have seen their lead remain at one game thanks to the Texans loss against the Jets last week. Jacksonville has only dropped one spot to No. 10 in net DVOA with the defense still leading the way at No. 8 despite the last two below average games. Baltimore now has the upper hand in the AFC thanks to the Miami loss on Monday night against Tennessee as it has a one game lead for the No. 1 seed with a huge game against the Dolphins on New Years Eve. The Ravens are coming off a fortunate win over the Rams in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown to move to 10-3 including a three-game winning streak. They are the most complete team in the AFC and are favorites here for a reason but the spot does not set up well with this being just their second road game since the end of October. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 91-46 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (330) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams are coming off an excruciating loss at Baltimore last week, losing in overtime on a punt return for a touchdown and the game atmosphere and situation does not make it any easier. Los Angeles played one of its most physical games of the season in horrible conditions which will be tough to recover from despite a return home where it does not have a significant advantage. The Rams had their three-game winning snapped with the loss and they are going to be one of, if not the biggest, public play on the entire card. They should score but their No. 23 defensive DVOA is a big concern when laying a large number. Washington is coming off its bye week following four straight losses where it was unable to generate a single takeaway and lost the turnover battle 9-0 in those games. Those are the fluky things that have killed the Commanders as in their nine losses, they are on the wrong side of and 18-5 turnover ratio. The Rams have generated only 11 takeaways and Washington needs to rely on taking care of the ball. While they are 0-5 against the top 10 in the league, the Commanders are 4-4 against everyone else and are catching too big of a number here. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Green Bay was on a roll as it had won three straight games prior to Monday night where it lost to the Giants which took a hit on its playoff hopes. The Packers are now tied with four other teams at 6-7 and currently hold down the No. 7 spot as they own most tiebreakers but this is a week-to-week change. They head home where they have won three straight games including a big win over Kansas City in the most recent game and last week, turnovers finally caught up at -3. In their three wins, they are +6 in margin and Tampa Bay does not turn it over as it is No. 7 in giveaways. Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first place with Atlanta and New Orleans thanks to two consecutive wins and like Green Bay, it has the tiebreakers currently in its favor and this one will go a long way. The Buccaneers have ramped up the running game over the last three games, averaging 133.7 ypg on 4.8 ypc and this could be big based on the weather forecast where wind could play a factor making the running game an integral part. The Packers rushing defense was exposed again last week and have allowed 170.4 ypg over their last five games and are ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing DVOA. Here, we play against home teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We have seen a complete line flip in this game with Houston opening as the favorite prior to the games last week and now the Texans are underdogs based on the results along with the status of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud was ruled out on Saturday and Davis Mills is a capable backup with plenty of experience in a get right spot and an opposition play against. The Texans have dropped two of their last three games and are sitting in the No. 8 spot in the AFC based on conference record, tied with six teams at 7-6 for the final two spots. Three of their last four games are in the division and all four in the AFC so they can feasibly run the table. Tennessee is coming off an improbable win on Monday night against Miami, trailing by 14 points with 2:40 remaining but scored the final 15 points for the upset. The Titans have won two of their last three games and have gone 0-4 in their first four games following a win and this is a big letdown spot despite a return home in a divisional game. Quarterback Will Levis led the comeback and while some are calling it his coming out party, he was not playing well prior to that. Despite the victory, Tennessee dropped to No. 24 in net DVOA. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (315) Houston Texans

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Everyone is all of a sudden sour on Detroit as it has put up four straight poor games but somehow was able to come away 2-2 in those games. The Lions are coming off another game where turnovers were the story as those two losses over this stretch were the result of a -3 turnover margin. Detroit now closes the season with its final four games taking place in a dome and this is where it will get its momentum back and starting here in a great spot. The Lions remain No. 7 in the league in net DVOA despite the loss to Chicago which happened to be the first loss in seven games against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that is where Denver still resides. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the league as they have now won six of their last seven games and are now one of six teams looking for two playoff spots in the AFC. Denver was fortunate last week against the Chargers with Justin Herbert going down and that was its third win in the last three games going up against a backup quarterback. That has skewed the defensive numbers but the Broncos still come in ranked No. 30 in defensive DVOA. This is the wrong time to go to Detroit. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (312) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our Bowl Game of the Week. Fresno St. had a late collapse as it lost three straight to close out the season. A big factor for the Bulldogs is that they will be without head coach Jeff Tedford who resigned due to a health issue and it will be Tim Skipper, the linebackers coach, to be the interim head coach in this game. Both sides of the ball can be to blame for the late struggles with a lot of that falling back on quarterback Mikey Keane who went 42-72 (58.3 percent) for 358 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The offense as a whole struggled a little further back as Fresno St. generated fewer than 400 total yards in four of their final five games. Defensively, the Bulldogs allowed 480 ypg on defense over the final half of the season with the rushing defense struggling all season, ranking No. 91 in the run stopping metric and No. 87 in ypc allowed. New Mexico St. had an amazing season as it finished 10-4 even though it culminated with a disappointing loss to Liberty in the C-USA Championship. The Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they have publicly displayed their disdain when head coach Jerry Kill did not make a list of 12 finalists for the Eddie Robinson national coach of the year. This team can shred the Bulldogs defense led by quarterback Diego Pavia who led an offense that ranked top 10 in success rate while being the leading rusher with 976 yards and six touchdowns in addition to passing for 2,821 yards. 10* (207) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our Cure Bowl Dominator. Miami Ohio pulled off the upset against Toledo to win the MAC Championship despite getting outgained as the RedHawks benefitted from a 2-0 turnover advantage. It was a great season led by one of the best defenses in the country but that was aided by a weak conference. The offense was horrible this season and barely got over 300 yards in the championship game and now they are even worse off. Quarterback Brett Gabbert was lost for the season and while Aveon Smith was a great game manager, he entered the transfer portal and Henry Hesson and his five career passes will get the start. Appalachian St. rode a five-game winning streak into the Sun Belt Conference Championship but Troy was too much in the 49-23 loss. The Mountaineers come in as the favorite with a higher power rating from a much stronger conference. Appalachian St. enters its bowl game with a sour taste after getting lit up by Troy on the ground with 277 yards, namely Kimani Vidal who ran for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Miami Ohio does not have the same rushing attack to take advantage as it is ranked No. 95 in rushing offense and struggled outside the weak MAC while the numbers are skewed by 466 yards against FCS Delaware. Take that game away and the game against 3-9 Massachusetts and Miami scored more than 23 points only four times. 10* (206) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 3-0 win over the Raiders Sunday and coupled with the Packers loss Monday, the Vikings leapfrogged Green Bay and are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC, one game ahead of five teams that are 6-7. The win snapped a two-game slide and this is the final non-division game remaining on the schedule and it is definitely a must win. The quarterback situation is unsettled but we will likely see Nick Mullins start this week who came in relief and led the game-winning drive. This is a very underrated defense for the Vikings as they are No. 5 in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Many thought the Bengals were done after quarterback Joe Burrow went down for the season but they are very much still alive for a playoff spot although the schedule does not set up well. Cincinnati is one of six teams tied at 7-6 which are vying for two playoff spots. Jake Browning has been the story as he has looked great in two games since taking over the starting job with passer ratings of 115.5 and 122.7 and we just do not think this is sustainable. On the other side, the Bengals are No. 26 in defensive DVOA which is a big boost for that Vikings offense. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES for our Myrtle Beach Bowl Annihilator. The transfer portal is going to affect many teams in bowl games this season and Ohio is near the top of the list. The Bobcats closed the regular season with three straight wins to finish 6-2 in the MAC East, which was good for second place, and 9-3 overall. Playing in a minor bowl game did not meet the expectations and Ohio has lost major pieces of its offense for Saturday. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke and top running backs Sieh Bangura and O'Shaan Allison all opted for the portal and with them goes 14 rushing touchdowns which happens to be every rushing touchdown for the entire season. Additionally, their top receiver has also opted out. The Bobcats only averaged 22.9 ppg and 346.8 ypg, No. 100 and No. 97 respectively in the country and are down to third string quarterback Parker Navarro who threw just 10 passes. Georgia Southern sputtered down the stretch with four straight losses and that negative momentum in typically a play against in the postseason but not in this scenario. The defense was bad this season but could not have a better setup here and the key will be for the offense to get off to a good start as Ohio will not be able to play catchup. The Eagles have a potent passing attack that finished No. 14 in the country and while they face a stout Ohio defense, the Bobcats numbers are good because of the poor offensive conference in was in. 10* (213) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers season is officially cooked after losing quarterback Justin Herbert to a right index finger fracture as they fell to 5-8 following a loss against Denver on Sunday. Ethan Stick came in on the fly and was not horrible and now he has at least had a few days of preparation for this game and we are seeing a seven-point swing from this early opener and that is just too much with what Herbert has done this season. Los Angeles will continue to rally especially in a divisional game and we will see a healthy dose of the running game as the Chargers had their second highest rushing output in the first meeting. One key factor is that Los Angeles is No. 1 in special teams DVOA which is often overlooked. The Raiders were involved in one of the ugliest games in recent memory as they were shutout against Minnesota on Sunday and it was the 11th time in 12 games they have scored 18 or fewer points. Quarterback Aiden O'Connell was coming off a good game against Kansas City but could muster nothing against Minnesota and it was his third game in his last four starts with a passer rating of 72 or less. Las Vegas is No. 29 in offensive DVOA and the running game is just as much to blame as it is No. 29 in rushing EPA. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 93-38 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Monday Annihilator. Miami has won three straight games to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the time being and we are going to lay the big number in the first of three straight home games for the Dolphins. They have feasted on bad teams as they are 7-0 straight up and ATS against teams with a losing record when facing them and going back, 13-4-1 ATS under head coach Mike McDaniel. Miami has improved to No. 4 in net DVOA including No. 2 in offense and have another great matchup here. Tennessee is coming off a brutal loss against Indianapolis in overtime as a missed extra point in regulation late in the fourth quarter could have won it although this has been a lost season to begin with. The Titans are 4-8 and have lost four of their last five games with the only win coming against 1-11 Carolina and it has been a struggle for rookie quarterback Will Levis. The good news for Tennessee is it should have Derrick Henry who has been in concussion protocol but he has been underutilized as he is averaging his fewest carries per game since 2018-19. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after one or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being 20 ppg. 10* (130) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay has turned the corner under quarterback Jordan Love as it has won three straight games to improve to 6-6 and get back into the playoff picture in the NFC. All three wins have been as an underdog and now the Packers go from that to a large road favorite as they are now a public darling as they are catching 94 percent of the early money. Green Bay has benefitted from a 5-0 turnover advantage during its winning streak and is coming off a huge win at home against Kansas City and this is only the second time all season it has been a favorite. The Giants have won two straight games as underdogs and they too have benefitted from turnovers with a 9-1 advantage over the two games so it can be said they too have been fortunate but they are not the team laying close to a touchdown. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has turned into a cult hero and while he is not the long term answer, he has managed games well with a passer rating of 137.7 and 103.9 over the last two games with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. Coming off a bye, New York is in a great contrarian spot that favors underdogs in these situations against teams coming in on a significant winning streak. Here, we play against road favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) New York Giants

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. We have seen this line go up since opening and it has crossed the key number of three which is big in a divisional game with similar opponents. The public is in love with the Cowboys which has caused the move as they have won four straight games, the first three in blowout fashion, but they struggled against Seattle last Thursday. Dallas does have the advantage of playing with some extra rest but that is not a big issue here, the issue is who they are playing. The Cowboys have rolled over the bad team that are not playoff contenders, with the Rams being a fringe contender, but they have struggled with the four teams that are in playoff position and now the schedule cranks up the next four weeks so we will see how good they really are. The Eagles were blown out at home last week against the 49ers but they were coming off three tough games against Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo and while it does not get any easier here, last week was a wake up call and we get a line advantage because of that. Philadelphia has been one of the most lucky teams in the league and it has gotten away with some close calls but the numbers do not lie as the Eagles are No. 8 in net DVOA and while it has been a brutal stretch, they are pretty healthy once again. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been gimping around but he will be fine and this could be the breakout after three straight below average games. 10* (127) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville suffered a big loss on Monday and an even bigger loss going forward with Trevor Lawrence leaving with an ankle injury. It does not sound overly serious and he has not completely been ruled out for Sunday as of Wednesday and while he likely will not go, the Jaguars, like what many teams do, will rally around him and C.J. Beathard and the rest of the team will give a big effort following that loss. Jacksonville but picking up steam on defense before last week but is still No. 6 in defensive DVOA and has a great matchup here. Cleveland has lost two straight games and while those were on the road and it has been a much better team at home, the offense has regressed. Even though it was never very good, the offense has averaged only 14.7 ppg over their last three games and they are getting more banged up. Quarterback Joe Flacco made his first start and while he threw for 254 yards, he completed only 52.3 percent of his passes and finished with a 75.4 rating. The defense remains great and is awesome at home but have been going the wrong way. Here, we play against home favorites averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight losses by 10 points or more going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Indianapolis is on a roll right now with four straight wins and with the injury to Trevor Lawrence, it is very much alive in the AFC South. The Colts are currently in the No. 7 spot in the AFC and tied with three other teams at 7-5 with a very manageable closing schedule. The offense has been sneaky good with Garnder Minshew at quarterback but a lot of that is due to the defense that has produced 20 takeaways this season and their 1.7 per game is tied for fifth in the NFL. Overall, that defense is No. 12 in DVOA and has a great matchup this week. Cincinnato is coming off a huge upset over Jacksonville on Monday night as quarterback Jake Browning looked like a veteran and he has been very serviceable in his two starts. But now, teams have film on him and can better scheme for him and he is due for a regression. The defense continues to struggle as the Bengals have allowed 30 points or more in three of their last four games and are currently No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Cincinnati is No. 13 in offensive DVOA but that can be attributed but that is when they caught fire in Week Five and had a sustainable run with Joe Burrow. Here, we play against teams off an upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The weather looks to be a big factor in many of the east coast games and this is certainly one of those as we have seen the total drop from 38.5 to 33 but the line has only come down a half point. There is rain and wind in the forecast and that is going cause the most problems for the Houston offense which likes to throw the ball downfield. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has had an incredible rookie season but could struggle in these conditions and he will be without one of his top receivers with Tank Bell going down for the rest of the season. While the offense could be limited, the defense has been average as the Texans are ranked No. 15 in DVOA. The Jets offense will certainly be limited as it has been all season and they have averaged only 9.0 ppg during their five-game losing streak. We are not too concerned about that as they are getting value based on their own struggles, especially going 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and the public love for Houston. The defense has kept them competitive in games mostly not against elite competition as New York is No. 3 in defensive DVOA. The quarterback situation has obviously been a mess but can only go up. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) New York Jets

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Army/Navy Annihilator. Even though both teams come in with a 5-6 record, the winner will not go to a bowl game as neither team had enough wins prior to Selection Sunday although there should have been an exemption for this game. Nonetheless, this is the biggest game of the season for both teams as they head to New England for the first time in series history. While it looks like a tossup, Navy has the edge in the all important area of rushing defense as both offenses are ranked in the top 15 in rushing. Navy comes in No. 30 in rushing defense, allowing 121.9 ypg on 3.6 ypc and has improved dramatically as after allowing 190 or more yards on the ground three times in its first five games, it has not allowed more than 137 yards in any of their last six games. Conversely, Army is No. 116 in rushing defense, allowing 180.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc and has allowed more than 200 yards in six of 11 games. The Black Knights are 1-6 this season when allowing 155 or more yards rushing. Turnovers could play a factor and that is where Navy has the edge as well. Army is No. 110 in the country in turnover margin and No. 115 in giveaways while Navy is No. 3 in turnover margin, No. 7in takeaways and No. 12 in giveaways. 10* (104) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. In what is expected to be a very low scoring game with a total sitting at 30, there is a lot of value in the significant underdog. The Steelers are 7-5 following a loss last week against Arizona so they are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. However, they have been exposed on offense especially over the last three weeks as Pittsburgh has put up only 12 ppg which has lowered their average to 16 ppg. The Steelers are No. 25 in offensive EPA and now have to go with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, even though Kenny Pickett was not doing much himself, and while he put up a high passer rating last week, he completed just 11 passes for 117 yards. The Patriots have had a rough season from the start with an even worse offense but to their credit, they continue to play hard, especially on defense as they have gotten healthier. They have allowed only 26 points over their last three games and have lost four straight one possession games to make it seven of 10 losses coming by a touchdown or less. New England is doing nothing on offense either but it will not take a great effort this week to keep this one close. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) New England Patriots

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our AFC Game of the Month. This would have been a marquee matchup a few weeks ago but the loss of Joe Burrow has taken the steam out of it and this line is now nine points higher than the early line that came out over the summer. Is Burrow worth nine points? The short answer is probably no but are more factors going into it. Cincinnati is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh by six points and while that seems like a close defeat, it was not. The Bengals were outgained 421-222 and it was the first time Pittsburgh gained over 400 yards of total offense in over three years which shows how bad this defense really is. Cincinnati is allowing 6.2 yppl which is the most in the league and a full yard more than last season and it has moved to No. 26 in defensive DVOA and No. 26 in defensive EPA. The Jaguars are coming off a pair of divisional wins to improve to 8-3 and the matchup could not be better here. The offense has been inconsistent all season and is ranked No. 17 in DVOA but now faces an awful defense so that is not an issue. The defense has been exceptional as the Jaguars are No. 5 in defensive DVOA and catches a break as they face Jake Browning who did not look horrible last week but did have some lucky breaks go his way. Jacksonville should dominate on this side as well. Here, we play against road teams with a pathetic allowing 6.0 or more yppl, after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City finally got its offense going last week after falling behind 14-0 as the Chiefs put up 31 points which surprisingly is tied for its second highest output of the season. The Chiefs are now in a tough spot coming off that divisional win with a game against Buffalo on deck so it is a letdown lookahead situation. This offense managed 360 total yards which is still below their season average so saying that are back is not justified. Travis Kelce had a typical big game and they got a huge effort from rookie Rashee Rice for his best game of the season but this receiving corps is still underachieving. The Chiefs are No. 12 in the luck rankings so despite a recent 7-3 ATS run, it is a bit deceiving. Green Bay is coming off a Thanksgiving win over Detroit which was its second straight underdog win to improve to 5-6 on the season. The Packers have lost some tough games this season as four of their defeats have come by a total of 11 points. Quarterback Jordan Love has been playing a lot better and is obviously more comfortable after some midseason struggles and he has put up a passer rating of 108.5 or better in three of his last four game. Defensively, they have improved as well and are now No. 7 in pressure rate, No. 5 in quarterback knockdown percentage and No. 7 in hurry rate. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of big wins as it got its revenge against the Chiefs and battled Buffalo to the end last week in an overtime win and it only gets tougher this week. The Eagles are 10-1 and a very fortunate 10-1 with seven of those 10 wins coming by just one possession including their last four games. In those recent games, Philadelphia was outgained in all four of those by 98, 114, 98 and 127 yards so it has not even been close so basically most everything has gone right. With an offense that has averaged only 320.5 ypg over this four-game run, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. The Eagles defense was on the field for over 40 minutes and 95 plays last week and now have a very physical test. San Francisco has won three straight games following a three-game losing streak where it was riddled with injuries. The 49ers are coming off a pretty easy win over Seattle where it was not given much of a challenge and now they have had the extra rest coming off a short week prior to that. Defensively, they are coming off their best three-game stretch of the season with only 30 points allowed on just 242.6 ypg and the 49ers have moved to No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The other side has been even better as San Francisco is No. 1 in offensive DVOA as it is now averaging 32.4 ppg taking out those three losses when numerous offensive pieces were missing. This game has been circled following the playoff loss from last season when Brock Purdy had to leave the game and the result was an embarrassing 31-7 loss. 10* (467) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. This is a minimal public play with Detroit but it is not as popular as it normally would have been just a few weeks ago but the Lions are coming off a pair of ugly games and this is a big one to get right. Detroit was able to salvage a win against the Bears despite losing the turnover battle 4-1 but could not match that on Thanksgiving as it lost to Green Bay with another -3 turnover margin. The Lions won the yardage battle in both of those games including a 464-377 advantage last week and face another very average team and while it is on the road, it is on the turf. Detroit is No. 7 in net DVOA with both units ranking in the top 10. New Orleans lost at Atlanta last week but it still very much alive in the NFC South at 5-6 which is keeping this number down. The Saints relied on their defense early in the season but have regressed of late by allowing 25.2 ppg over their last five games. They are still a respectable No. 13 in defensive DVOA but have faced some poor offenses as in their 11 games, that have gone against an offense eight times that is bottom half of the league in DVOA and the best they have faced is ranked No. 9 and remain without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Offensively, New Orleans is hurting with their top three receivers all in jeopardy of missing this game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (453) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Washington is coming off a blowout loss on Thanksgiving against Dallas which was its third straight loss to fall to 4-8 and it is catching another big number this week. The Commanders parted ways with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as it has been a struggle and while it does not look to get any easier here, players tend to step up in these spots after a coach getting let go. They are ranked No. 31 in defensive DVOA which is obviously horrible but it could not be in a better contrarian spot after everyone saw them get lit up against the Cowboys. They have been adequate on offense with efficiency and Sam Howell is still slinging it around and facing a middle of the pack defense. Miami is coming off a Black Friday win over the Jets on the road and is laying a similar number here coming off a big divisional win. The Dolphins have won two straight games following a mediocre 3-3 run and while those losses were against elite teams, this being the second of a back-to-back road set, it sets up similar to the first two games of the season where it scored 36 in the season opener and followed that up with just 24 points against the Patriots in their second back-to-back game. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 8-4-1 ATS this season. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our ACC Championship Winner. We played against Florida St. last week in its first game without quarterback Jordan Travis and it got away with a win against Florida. The offense definitely suffered as the Seminoles managed only 224 yards of offense and now faces a much better defense this week as it looks to stay alive in the CFP. Florida St. was knocked down to the No. 5 spot last week but moved up to the No. 4 spot this week after Ohio St. losing and a win here likely gets it in. That will he harder said than done. It has obviously been a great season for Florida St. and it can surely get by here with its defense but another non-home against a very good offense could be an issue which almost did it in last week. The offense has been solid all season but it cannot be ignored that quarterback Tate Rodemaker struggled against the Gators, going just 12-25 for 134 yards. The Cardinals bring in a defense ranked No. 19 overall including No. 12 against the run while their 20 ppg allowed are No. 25 in the nation. Louisville is coming off a tough loss against rival Kentucky as it won the yardage battle 403-289 but lost the turnover battle 3-1 and allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown. Its other loss against Pittsburgh was a similar outcome as it lost the turnover battle 3-0 so clear those miscues up and the Cardinals could be 12-0 as well. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season rushing for 4.8 or more ypc and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 77-38 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (321) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our SBC Championship Winner. The Trojans are hosting the Sun Belt Conference for a second straight season and will be looking for a similar result when they defeated Coastal Carolina by 19 points as a 6.5-point favorite. They are coming off a 10-2 regular season and Troy is one of the hottest teams in the country going back to last season that no one is really talking about as it has gone 21-2 over its last 23 games with the losses coming against Kansas St. and 11-1 James Madison. The Trojans have an adequate offense which has picked up steam over the second part of the season and it is the defense that has been great all year as they are No. 12 overall and No. 10 in points allowed and have given up more than 17 points only twice in their last 10 games. Appalachian St. has caught fire at the right time as it comes in on a five-game winning streak yet is in this game because of an NCAA stipulation where James Madison was unable to compete for the championship. The Mountaineers did hand the Dukes their only loss and have covered four straight games which is helping with value as it the fact three of their four losses were by six points or less and the other being seven points. They posses a very good offense but are going against the tough defense and their running game was stifled against James Madison. Their own defense is below average and Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson is playing very efficient right now with a 17:1 TD:INT ratio his last seven games. These teams did not meet this season but this is a revenge game from last season that Troy wants some payback for as Appalachian St. won on a 53-yard Hail Mary with no time remaining. 10* (320) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Game of the Year. A tiebreaker had to be used to determine which teams went to the Mountain West Conference Championship with Boise St., UNLV and San Jose St. all finishing with 6-2 records. Since the three teams did not all play each other, the three-way tie was broken by an average of four computer rankings, Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix, Massey and Wolfe. UNLV arguably should not be here despite having the best overall record of the three as it finished with the lowest ranked schedule played and actually lost to San Jose St. in the season finale in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. The tiebreaker awarded UNLV being the host which is what the conference wanted and the Rebels are underdogs for a reason. Despite playing a soft slate, the Rebels were not a dominating team as they have an above average offense but the defense faltered, finishing No. 85 overall and of their nine wins, only two were against winning teams. Boise St. got here despite firing coach Andy Avalos after a 42-14 win against New Mexico earlier this month with two games left in the season and it looks to have inspired the Broncos with a pair of key victories. The offense was one of the better ones in the country as they were No. 28 overall, spurned by a strong rushing attack that finished No. 11, averaging 207.5 ypg on 5.3 ypc and faces a soft UNLV rushing defense. This is an experienced team that has been here before and while UNLV has been a feel good story after not having won more than five games since 2013 but will be overmatched here. 10* (313) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our MAC Championship Winner. Toledo was the preseason pick to win the MAC and it proved to be the best team, finishing 11-1 including 8-0 in the conference with the only loss coming in its season opener against Illinois by two points on the road so the Rockets clearly come in with a ton of momentum. This line is an overreaction however as the power rankings make this a 4.5-point number on a neutral field. Toledo beat five teams that finished .500 or better including Miami along with San Jose St., Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green with four of those coming by a combined 11 points and the win over the Eagles being the only dominating performance. They defeated the RedHawks by four points as a two-point favorite in Oxford which also correlates to roughly a 4.5-point number when switching to a neutral field. Miami lost its opener at Miami Florida and then went on to win 10 of its final 11 games and it was actually more dominating with eight of its 10 wins coming by double digits. The RedHawks have survived after losing starting quarterback Brett Gabbert in that Toledo game and the offense has suffered but the defense has made up for it. Miami is No. 23 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense and this has been no fluke as it came into the season with nine returning starters and have allowed nearly 50 ypg less than last season. That defense will once again lead them and keep this one close which we could see going either way. 10* (311) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Pac 12 Championship Winner. This line stinks based on the first meeting between Oregon and Washington. The Huskies were a three-point favorite at home where they won by three points and now they are getting close to double digits on a neutral field but the power numbers do actually justify this number. The Ducks outgained Washington 541-415 but failed to send the game into overtime after missing a 43-yard field goal as time expired and since then, they have been the more dominant team. They have won six straight games since then, winning five of those by double digits and the other coming by nine points against USC and they had a statement win last week in the Civil War against a strong Oregon St. team by 24 points. It has been the complete opposite for Washington which also won out but five of the six wins were by one possession and the one exception was just a nine-point victory over 3-9 Stanford where the Huskies were outgained 499-460. The offense remains potent but the defense has struggled, coming in ranked No. 96 overall. Conversely, Oregon is the No. 2 ranked total offense and No. 2 ranked scoring offense while the defense has been sneaky good, No. 15 overall and No. 7 in points allowed. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season rushing for 4.8 or more ypc and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 77-38 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving as they ran away from Washington in the second half as this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 5-0 at home and have outscored opponents by 29 ppg but those have been against some poor teams with the Rams being the best of the bunch and none possessing a winning record. Despite that, this looks like they are laying a number to another losing team but they are putting it down against a competent team. Dallas is now 8-3 but has played only two teams with a winning record and lost both of those so we are not comparing San Francisco and Philadelphia to Seattle, this is way too aggressive. Dallas has played the second easiest schedule in the league and has moved up to No. 4 in net DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA so the numbers back up the record which has been helped by the easy slate. Dallas is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. The Seahawks are coming off a Thanksgiving loss to the 49ers and while that was a bad call, we are back on the Seahawks again despite hitting the road. They have lost two straight games and three of their last four and have San Francisco and Philadelphia on deck so there has to be a win in their somewhere to avoid falling out of the playoff hunt. The health of Geno Smith has been a concern but he has had another week to help his injured elbow and Seattle hopes to get Kenneth Walker back after missing the last two games. This line has gone up four points since opening at 5.5 a week ago in some spots and this is simply a massive overreaction. Here, we play against favorites averaging 360 or more total ypg, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers fell to 4-6 with a 23-20 loss at Green Bay which makes in five times in those six defeats they have lost by a field goal or less. That includes all three losses at home and those came against Miami, Dallas and Detroit so it has been elite competition they have fallen to and get another similar opponent this week although now they are catching the biggest number of the bunch. Los Angeles is in the top half of the league in both net DVOA and net EPA and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 8 in the NFL. Baltimore shook off its last second loss to Cleveland with a win last Thursday night against Cincinnati but caught a big break there with quarterback Joe Burrow going down for the season. The Ravens are 8-3 and have a half-game lead over Cleveland in the AFC South but the schedule has been favorable as they are coming off a three-game homestand and this is just their second true road game since October 8. Baltimore is top five in both net DVOA and net EPA but it suffered a huge injury in its own right last week with tight end Mark Andrews lost for the season, adding to an already impacted injury report. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Year. This could be a season defining game for Buffalo which rolled the Jets last week in its first game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Now the Bills hit the road against a much better team but they are catching a great number and they could have some renewed confidence in what is now a wide open AFC. While they have underperformed, the difference in turnovers and how they have occurred has been the situation as they are No. 7 in turnover worthy play rate. Buffalo is now ranked No. 5 in net DVOA while Philadelphia comes in at No. 10. The Eagles picked up a big win over Kansas City last week and it was a very fortunate one with the Chiefs making too many critical mistakes as well as a late dropped touchdown pass. Philadelphia is now 9-1 with six of those wins coming by one possession which puts it No. 2 in the latest Luck Rankings. Good teams know how to win and that is what the Eagles do but they are well down in the metrics compared to that record. Even in net EPA, they are well behind the Bills at No. 9 compared to Buffalo at No. 3. The Super Bowl revenge win presents the letdown here. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 58-29 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (267) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland took out Pittsburgh last week to keep pace in the AFC North with Baltimore as it is a game back and could leave town with the lead should the Ravens trip up against the Chargers. Dorian Thompson-Robinson picked up his first win as a starter and it was not very pretty but it was enough where the Browns relied on the defense which is what we expect again here. It is important that this will be his second straight week of work with the first team. The defense remains No. 1 in both net DVOA and net EPA. Denver was looking like the team from last season with a 1-5 start but it has won four straight games which is actually the longest current winning streak in the NFL, to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Broncos are favored again this week against another backup quarterback and escaped with a one point win over Minnesota last week despite getting outgained by close to 100 yards as they won the turnover battle 3-0. The difference this week the Vikings do not have close to the defense as the Browns do and Denver could not must 300 yards of offense. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and after two straight wins by three or less points going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Jacksonville had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 31-point loss against San Francisco but got it back last week against Tennessee with a 20-point victory. The Jaguars hit the road where they are 3-0 in true road games with this being the toughest opponent to date. They are 7-3 overall and have a one game lead over Houston in the AFC South who they lost to in Week Three so they are playing with revenge. Despite the strong start, Jacksonville is ranked only No. 21 in net EPA which is nine spots lower than the opponent it is favored over today. Houston opened 0-2 so it took a while to get its footing and it has made a great turnaround with wins in six of its last eight games including three straight. The two recent losses were both on the road and by two points each so the Texans come in on a four-game home winning streak. They are No. 12 in net EPA and net DVOA with similar splits on both sides of the ball. The story has been rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who is now No. 8 in QB rating and has put up a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. The Texans are undervalued here with the wrong team favored. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss against opponent, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 31-6 ATS (83.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (252) Houston Texans

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Colorado St. has saved it season with wins over the last two week to move to 5-6 on the season and it needs the win here to become bowl eligible and with the short price, it is a great spot for it to happen. A trip to Hawaii can feel more like a vacation than a job but the Rams know what is at stake so it is all business. They are 1-4 on the road but three of those losses have come against teams either bowl eligible or on the cusp and the other against Colorado early in the season when teams had not figured them out yet. Hawaii picked up a big upset two weeks again against Air Force but other than that, it has not won another quality game and has been blown out in six of its eight losses. The Warriors were in rebuilding mode again this season with the offense hopefully taking a step up but that has not happened and the defense has not helped, sitting No. 115 in points allowed and they are getting outscored by 12 ppg. Here, we play on road favorites off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss by 28 points or more. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (237) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our Nonconference Game of the Year. Florida St. took a massive blow to its National Championship hopes with quarterback Jordan Travis going down with a gruesome leg injury against North Alabama of all teams. As expected, the Seminoles were jumped by Washington in the CFP rankings as they fell to No. 5 and are in a tough spot here with Tate Rodemaker taking over. It has obviously been a great season for Florida St. and it can surely get by here with its defense but taking the game on the road against a very good offense could be an issue to win by margin. Florida is coming off a last second loss against Missouri to make it four straight losses and the Gators all of a sudden have to win here to become bowl eligible. They certainly caught an unfortunate break for their rival but the line has come down after Travis was lost for the season. Florida is No. 42 in total offense and while it struggled to score against potent defenses Utah and Georgia, those were away from home and they are averaging 34.8 ppg at home. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 25-8 ATS over the last five seasons. 10* (154) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our SBC Game of the Month. Arkansas St. has turned its season around as after losing its first two games by a combined score of 110-3, it has won six of nine games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2019. The Red Wolves put up 77 points against Texas St. week to gain bowl eligibility but the offense was not the catalyst as they had three defensive touchdowns as well as a kickoff return for a touchdown. Three of their wins have come against teams with at least eight losses and other against Stony Brook of the FCS. Marshall got off to a 4-0 start but it is fighting for its postseason life as it suffered through a five-game losing streak and then was shut out last week at South Alabama. The thundering Herd have scored nine or fewer points in four of their last five games but three of those were on the road and the other came at home against James Madison, one of the best defenses in the country. They are averaging 26.6 ppg at home and that success should continue against a Red Wolves defense that is No. 124 in the country and No. 105 in points allowed. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after four or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (192) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Here is another rivalry game where the home underdog is very much alive to play the role of spoiler. Arizona has been red hot as it has won five straight games to improve to 8-3 and still has a shot at the Pac 12 Championship with a win and some help. It has been a very unexpected successful season as their three losses have all been by one possession but in the same regard, three of their wins have come by three points or less. The wildcats are laying a big road price, the second biggest of the season and the first one resulted in a one point win at Stanford. Arizona St. has had the opposite season as it is 3-8 but has been better of late as it is 2-2 in its last four games after losing six straight. The Sun Devils offense has struggled but mostly on the road where they have averaged 12.0 ppg but are averaging a touchdown more than that at home. This is their bowl game and if nothing else, they keep it close. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 6.2 or more yppl and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 84-41 ATS (67.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (196) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Rice closes the season at home with a chance to become bowl eligible. The Owls did go to a bowl game last season but they were 5-7 and made it due to not enough 6-win teams being eligible and got in because of academics so they are going for six wins for the first time since 2013. They won at Charlotte last week to keep hope alive following a three-game losing streak against the three teams that are a combined 21-0 in the AAC and two of those were by seven points combined. Florida Atlantic was on pace to make it to a bowl game for the first time since the COVID season and now the best they can do is win five games for a fourth straight season. The Owls have lost three straight and the wind has come out of their sails with the offense scoring just 15 points over the last two games. The offense has struggled overall as they are No. 102 overall and they are not much better on defense at No. 89. Their three wins against FBS teams were against teams with losing records. Here, we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season in a game involving two rushing teams averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc. This situation is 44-21 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (190) Rice Owls

This is a play on the OHIO ST. BUCKEYES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. A trip to the Big 10 Championship is up for grabs yet again with the chance to face Iowa. Michigan comes in as the expected favorite playing at home and it has dominated Ohio St. the last two meetings and for being a heated rivalry, it has not been close of late with the last five meetings decided by double digits, that last one possession game taking place in 2016. The Wolverines have been dominant for the most part but had a scare last week against Maryland and the game plan it had against Penn St. where they did not throw a pass in the second half will likely not work here as they will have to pass the ball. Ohio St. has a great pass rush so that could be an issue and the Michigan offense line has struggled in pass protection. The Buckeyes have been just as dominant as the offense is averaging only four points less than Michigan while both teams are allowing only nine ppg. We have not seen those defenses dominate in this series during the last five games but that easily should change here and that favors a low scoring game obviously which favors the underdog. Here, we play on road teams with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (141) Ohio St. Buckeyes

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. There is a lot on the line for Oregon in this edition of the Civil War. A Pac-12 title game appearance and keeping alive hopes of a possible College Football Playoff berth are the two big factors and there is also revenge in play. Last season, the Ducks built what seemed like a commanding 31-10 lead with 4 minutes, 46 seconds left in the third quarter and appeared to be on their way to a spot in the Pac-12 championship game but the Beavers scored 28 of the next 31 points to pull off the comeback with a 38-34 victory. Since losing to Washington by three points, the Ducks have rolled over their last five games. Oregon St. is coming off a tough loss against Washington as it lost by two points, its third loss of the season by three points or less. This will be its biggest test on the road where it is 3-2 with the best win coming against California or San Jose St. The Beavers do a lot of things right as they have a top 25 offense and a top 30 defense and while the letter unit has been great at generating turnovers which has helped the offense, Oregon has only six giveaways the entire season with two of those coming last week against Arizona St. Here, we play against road teams in a game involving two teams averaging 34 or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (136) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Friday Ultimate Underdog. Missouri is coming off a dramatic last second win over Florida last week in its final home game to improve to 9-2 on the season and has a chance for its first 10-win season since 2014. That should provide the motivation but coming off the win over the Gators and knowing the SEC Championship is out of play, this is not an easy spot. The Tigers offense has been one of the best in the country as they are ranked No. 20 overall and No. 33 in scoring but face an above average defense that is No. 49 in the nation. Arkansas is coming off a 44-20 win over Florida International last week. The Razorbacks are 4-7 on the season with their lone SEC win coming against the Gators in overtime so they will not be going bowling but this is the Battle Line Rivalry so playing spoiler and ending the season on a high is the goal. It has been a tough season as it easily could have been better as Arkansas has a 1-5 record in one-score games so it has been close. Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson has had a solid season as he has been able to keep these games within reach. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season averaging 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 56-21 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (128) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Friday Enforcer. A berth in the AAC Championship is on the line with the winner going while the loser still can make it should SMU lose to Navy on Saturday. Tulane has won nine straight games and is 10-1 overall with the only loss coming against Mississippi where quarterback Michael Pratt missed. New Year's Six stakes are also on the line, primarily for No. 23 Tulane, which controls its own destiny for a second consecutive appearance. The Green Wave have been dominant at home in its five wins and are laying a short number. The Roadrunners are also 7-0 but has done so on a different path. UTSA has had a fairly easy run to its undefeated conference record as all seven opponents the Roadrunners have faced are all below .500, so the Green Wave represent a significant step up in competition. They too have been great down the stretch after an uneven start but quarterback Frank Harris is over his injury but now faces his biggest defensive test with Tulane coming in No. 25 overall and No. 18 in scoring. Their own defense has not been nearly as good despite playing lesser teams as they are No. 59 overall and No. 56 in points allowed. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The 49ers are coming in as big road favorites and while those spots have been good to take on Thanksgiving, this is a good spot to fade in a divisional game with a lot on the line. San Francisco has a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West following a pair of wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay which happened to be the first two games back at pretty much full strength with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams returning for the offense. The 49ers swept all three games last season including a 41-23 win in the playoffs setting up a big revenge spot for the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a loss to the Rams by a point as it missed a last second field goal making it two of its four losses coming against the Rams. The Seahawks are currently in the No. 6 spot in the NFC and this starts a stretch of four games against the 49ers twice, Dallas and Philadelphia so they need to at least take care of business at home. Seattle is 4-1 at home including four straight wins and while the competition has not been great, the metrics are still good taking the strength of schedule into consideration. Here, we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 48-14 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just 1.5 ppg. 10* (110) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Mississippi St. snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-point win over Southern Mississippi to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Bulldogs are 5-6 and need this game and in a rivalry game, anything is possible even in a game with a spread this big. The most significant change for the Bulldogs in their first game under interim head coach Greg Knox last week is that they committed to the run game more than they had all season as they rushing for 240 yards on 43 carries (5.6 ypc). The Mississippi rushing defense could be in trouble because of that as the Rebels are No. 79 in rushing defense, allowing 157 ypg. While that could be a big edge, the Bulldogs possess a solid defense as they are No. 48 overall including No. 48 against the pass and No. 49 against the run. Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers played for the first time in more than a month against the Golden Eagles and his presence is a big one. Mississippi easily took out UL-Monroe last week 35-3 to close out its home schedule and hits the road where it is 2-2 and while those losses were against Alabama and Georgia, this will be a tougher spot than expected. While the defense will be tested, the offense does face that strong defense and the Rebels have not been as lethal on the road. Their offense averages 36.5 ppg overall, but that includes an average of 23.0 ppg away from home. 10* (110) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This is a big number to be laying with the Cowboys which are always a big public play on Thanksgiving but we are backing them in a great situational spot. Dallas has not been very good on Thanksgiving covering numbers but this team is rolling right now and has been dominant at home. The Cowboys are 4-0 at home and have outscored opponents by nearly 28 ppg and while those have been against some poor teams, their opponent Thursday falls into that as well. Dallas has moved up to No. 6 in DVOA and No. 2 in net EPA with both offense and defense ranked in the top 5. Washington is coming off a brutal loss to the Giants last week as it committed six turnovers in the 12-point defeat. The Commanders are now 4-7 and likely out of playoff consideration with a very tough upcoming schedule with three games against two of the top teams in the NFC. Washington has fallen to No. 27 in DVOA and No.. 26 in net EPA with the offense landing at No. 22 and defense being No. 30. Quarterback Sam Howell had a decent run going but was dreadful against New York and he has been sacked 51 times this season and Dallas is the No. 6 ranked blitzing team in the league. He leads the league in passing yards but is No. 22 in QBR. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average scoring differential being 22.6 ppg. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Minnesota is one of the hottest teams in the NFL as it has won five consecutive games to get within a game and a half of Detroit in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered all five of those games as well, the last two with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and he has been a great story but those wins were against the NFC South, the worst division in football. They now head out west to face another team on a turnaround and one that is more justified at this point. The Vikings are the public darling right now with the longest winning streak in the league and are catching 82 percent of the money yet this line has not budged since opening and that is telling. The Broncos have won three straight games to move to 4-5 to get right into the playoff hunt. They are coming back home for a pair of games where they have won two in a row after dropping their first three games in Denver. The defense has been outstanding during this recent winning streak as they have allowed only 16 ppg which has helped an offense that has not been very productive. While Russell Wilson has not put up big numbers, he has been efficient with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions and a 104.0 passer rating. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (474) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Seattle is tied atop the NFC West with the 49ers at 6-3 but while San Francisco is +109 in scoring differential, the Seahawks are -1 and they have been outgained overall by 209 yards. Seattle is at the top of the list as one of the most overrated teams with a winning record and they could be exposed with its upcoming schedule. They are coming off a win over Washington which was their second win in three games which were by a combined seven points and both at home. Taking a look at the teams they have dominated, they are the Panthers, Giants and Cardinals and while the other cover came against Detroit, that was in overtime where the Lions did not even see the ball. This is a possible lookahead with a Thanksgiving game on deck against the 49ers. Los Angeles is coming off its bye week which came at a great time after a brutal stretch. The Rams have dropped three straight games, failing to cover any of those but just one of those was with Matthew Stafford playing a full game and that was the loss to Pittsburgh where the defense allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Stafford will return this week and he brings a different dynamic to the offense especially with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Even with Stafford and Kupp missing time, the Rams are No. 15 in offensive DVOA which is nothing special but that is just two spots below Seattle. 10* (470) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Steelers keep finding ways to win as they are now 6-3 following a pair of wins over Tennessee and Green Bay and while those wins are not saying much, they come into a good spot this week. Pittsburgh was turnover free in both of those games and it has only four turnovers in its last seven games after committing four turnovers in its first two games. This is the first of two straight divisional games where they are 2-0 and three of the final four games against the AFC North will be against teams without their starting quarterback with Joe Burrow our for the season. The defense continues to lead the way as Pittsburgh is No. 7 in defensive DVOA and have a great matchup here. Cleveland is coming off an improbable win over Baltimore as it rallied from a 24-9 and won on a last second field goal to also improve to 6-3. Quarterback Deshawn Watson delivered an inspired effort in the second half to pull off the victory but it was announced that he is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Granted he was not having the best season overall but now the ball will be in the hands of rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who made one start and he was awful against the Ravens, going 19-36 for 121 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Granted, he was thrust into that game with no preparation and while he has had practice this week with the top unit, he will struggle. 10* (451) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit is coming off a win over the Chargers for their second straight win following their second loss of the season at Baltimore. The Lions lead the NFC North by a game and a half over the surging Vikings and their offense has led the way as they are No. 2 overall and No. 6 in scoring. They have been buoyed by a rushing offense that has put up over 200 yards in each of their last two games but face a very underrated Bears defense that has improved dramatically. Detroit has been one of the better teams against the number which adds value and it has the lookahead to Thanksgiving. Chicago has been an improving team as it is 3-3 over its last six games and after getting blown out in each of its first three games, the Bears last four losses have come by one possession and they have outgained their opponent in six of their last seven games. The Bears are on a mini bye following a Thursday night game which is always beneficial this late into the season and we have seen this line come down based on the return of Justin Fields at quarterback but we are still above two key numbers in a divisional game. The Chicago defense has improved after an awful start and the numbers prove that as they have allowed 214 passing yards or less in five of their last seven games while giving up an average of only 56.4 ypg on the ground. 10* (461) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This one is ugly but at this number, it is a must take. Dallas is coming off a home win over the quarterback depleted Giants and that has been the story this season as the Cowboys are 4-0 at home with every win coming by at least 20 points and by an average of 27.5 ppg. It has been a different story on the road as they are 2-3 and while two of those losses were against the 49ers and Eagles, the other came at Arizona where they were laying a similar number and lost by 12 points and they have covered just once in their last nine road games coming off a win. Dallas is clearly the better team here and it would be an easy game if the better team always dominated by that is far from the case in this league and the Cowboys have been awful in these spots, going 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games coming off double-digit win. Carolina is coming off a loss in Chicago which was its best road effort of the season where its other four losses were by an average of 15.8 ppg, three of those coming against current division leaders. The Panthers are 1-3 at home with the lone win coming against Houston and two of the losses were by one possession. We are going to see full focus and effort here as Carolina is staring at a three-game upcoming roadtrip. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more that have a winning percentage of .250 or worse have covered at close to a 60 percent rate since 1993. 10* (466) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Primetime Power. Kansas and Kansas St. meet in the Sunflower showdown with identical records yet the Jayhawks come in as a significant home underdog. They are coming off a three-point home loss against Texas Tech which was impacted by quarterback Jason Bean leaving the game early with a head injury and his replacement Cole Ballard was not able to supplement the running game with any sort of passing attack but Bean is probable and practiced. Kansas will rely on its strong rushing game where it is ranked No. 18 in the country. Kansas St. shook off a loss against Texas with a blowout win against Baylor last week by 34 points but it was a misleading final as the Wildcats won the turnover battle 4-0. They have been a dominant team against the lesser opponents with most of those coming as home where the Wildcats are 6-0 but they are 1-3 on the road. That win was at Texas Tech by 17 points but again, it was aided by turnovers where they won that 3-0. This is a well rounded team on both sides of the ball but one that is not in a good spot. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 24-8 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (364) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. We won with UCF last week as it rolled over Oklahoma St. by 42 points and the Knights are now overvalued because of that. That was just as much of a play against the Cowboys as it was on UCF which has won two straight games after losing five games in a row. The Knights are now 5-5 and have to either win here or in their finale at home against Houston which is more likely at this point as they are 2-3 on the road with all of those losses coming in the Big 12 and while all against better teams than Texas Tech, they were thoroughly outgained in all. The Red Raiders also come in at 5-5 following a pair of wins against TCU and Kansas and this is a must win to become bowl eligible as they close the season at Texas next week. They opened the season 0-2 with a rough loss in Wyoming after blowing a 17-0 lead and the other coming against Oregon by one possession. The last two losses against Kansas St. and BYU were the result of losing the turnover battle 8-0 and that is always a factor for any team. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 230 or more rushing ypg and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (414) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Georgia is once again in the driver's seat for a spot in the CFP as it comes in 10-0 and while it has been potent on both sides of the ball, it has not been as dominant with only three covers. Speaking of three, this is just their third road game of the season as the Bulldogs rolled over a bad Vanderbilt team and escaped Auburn with a seven-point win. They are going to be a big public play here coming off their final home game which was a rout over Mississippi by 35 points and now are laying what is perceived as a short number. We played against Tennessee last week as it went to Missouri and laid an egg, losing by 29 points as it committed a season-high three turnovers. The Volunteers may have been guilty to looking ahead to this game which they cannot be faulted for. They are 5-0 at home with a home finale against Vanderbilt to close the season. Tennessee is obviously not as strong on either side but they are not far off as they are No. 18 in total offense and No. 40 in total defense and this game is obviously their season. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 34 or more ppg going against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg, after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (330) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS for our CFB Star Attraction. Clemson has won two straight games since the incident with Dabo Swinney and the media but that does not necessarily mean the Tigers have turned that much of a corner. They are still just 6-4 on the season and are laying a touchdown which is still based on name. To their credit, the opening loss against Duke was mostly turnover driven and the last three losses have all been by one possession so the record could be better but on the other side, they should have lost to Notre Dame and only beat Wake Forest by five points. North Carolina is so close to being undefeated as it opened 6-0 before losing two straight games against Virginia and Georgia Tech by a combined eight points with the yardage differentials landing in their favor. They are coming off a closer that expected win over Duke last week to keep the hopes of getting to 10 wins before bowl season. There is also some payback from the ACC Championship last season which Clemson won despite getting outgained but won the turnover battle 3-0. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (341) North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Big 10 Game of the Year. Iowa is coming off its first shutout of the season as it defeated Rutgers 22-0 with the defense allowing just 127 total yards. This offense has taken shots all season which is justified but the Hawkeyes are 8-2 because of that defense which is ranked No. 8 in the country overall and No. 3 in scoring. That has given them the ability to overcome the offensive deficiencies but that offense did put up 402 yards last week against a top 20 Rutgers defense and now they face a defense that was one of the best in the country last season but has regressed. This is a revenge game for Iowa as well after losing a very ugly game last season 9-3 in Champaign. Illinois has won two straight games and three of its last four after opening the season 2-4 to give it a shot at bowl eligibility. The Illini host Northwestern next week in their season finale rivalry game which is certainly their better change of finding the postseason. This is a middle of the road offense that will struggle here. The defense that was one of the best is now No. 81 overall and No. 101 in scoring as they have allowed fewer than 24 points only twice while giving up a season high 45 points to Indiana last week. Here, we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season in a game involving two rushing teams averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc. This situation is 42-19 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (360) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Cincinnati snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win at Houston last week but that previous losing skid made the Bearcats ineligible for a bowl game and now they are on the road for a second straight week. It has been a huge disappointment for them in their first season in a much tougher conference and they clearly are not on the same level yet and six of those seven losses came by more than what they are getting here. The once potent defense has slipped to No. 53 overall. West Virginia had its two-game winning streak snapped last week with a blowout loss at Oklahoma by 39 points. The defense has been on a solid run but allowed 646 yards of offense and it was a horrible spot with the Sooners coming off consecutive losses. The Mountaineers are already bowl eligible so there is no pressure and they can increase their stock with two winnable games to close the season and this is their final home games of the season. They are 4-1 at home with the lone loss against Oklahoma St. that was closer than the final score showed. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc in in two straight games. This situation is 72-32 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Oklahoma shook off a pair of losses against Kansas and Oklahoma St. with a 39-point win over West Virginia last week as the offense erupted for 646 total yards but it was the defense that put together its best effort since the end of September as it allowed just 330 yards. It was a get right game for the Sooners that got knocked out of playoff contention but that victory is helping us with this number. With the exception of a game against Tulsa, this is the biggest line Oklahoma has laid all season against FBS opponents. BYU is not having the greatest season but it is still 5-5 and the big part of this number is the recent run. The Cougars have lost three straight games and they have not been close with the defeats coming by 29, 30 and 32 points. The first two were on the road at Texas and West Virginia and the most recent one against Iowa St. was aided by a -3 turnover margin. This is the biggest home game of the season for the Cougars in their first season in the Big 12 and this is the biggest line they have gotten all season. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 6.2 or more yppl and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team with a defense allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 83-41 ATS (66.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (372) BYU Cougars