This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Saturday Marquee Star Attraction. Michigan has not covered the big numbers at home against weak nonconference opponents over the last two seasons and that was extended in its season opener this year against New Mexico in a 34-17 win. The question is did the Wolverines play it vanilla as to not show much or was it an actual struggle. Probably a mixture of both but the offense looked very good as Bryce Underwood completed 21-of-31 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown in his collegiate debut while running back Justice Haynes rushed for 159 yards on 16 carries (9.9 ypc) but now the freshman Underwood has to go on the road in a hostile environment behind a Michigan team that has failed to cover its last five nonconference road games. Oklahoma is coming off an uneven performance against Illinois St. as it only led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter but still piled up 495 total yards and quarterback John Mateen looked great. The Sooners are 15-4 at home under Brent Venables while going 11-5 ATS as home chalk. 10* (400) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS as part of our CFB Saturday Evening Three-Pack SWEEP. We played against Tulane last week and got burned with Northwestern which turned the ball over five times. Tulane contended in the AAC last season as it finished 7-1 but lost to Army in the championship game and then got rolled by Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. We expect a tumble as the Green Wave lost a lot to the transfer portal namely Darian Mensah who left for Duke as well as all everything running back Makhi Hughes and their top receivers. They put up 269 rushing yards last week which was impressive but this is not a good situation coming off that win where they thought they were disrespected by Northwestern for a uniform consideration and having a game at Duke and facing Mensah next week. South Alabama is coming off a win over Morgan St. and now catching double digits at home for no real reason. The Jaguars are coming off a third straight winning season and are expected to contend in the Sun Belt West Division and this is just the fourth time since 2021 they are a home dog. 10* (382) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This matchup sets up to be an absolute annihilation. Navy rolled over VMI as expected in a 52-7 blowout as it racked up 464 yards on the ground and while it will not reach that here, it sadly for the Blazers could be close. The Midshipmen are coming off a 10-3 season and bring back the No. 16 most experienced team in the country. They improved by 71 ypg and nearly 14 ppg on offense and have eight starters back including quarterback Blake Horvath, who also led the team in rushing, part of a group of seven of the top eight rushers returning. With Tulsa on deck, there is no chance of a lookahead and they will continue to pound the ball. UAB looked good on offense with 52 points but had to rally from a 28-17 third quarter deficit and the defense was atrocious against FCS Alabama St., allowing 42 points and 514 total yards including 202 yards rushing. Not ideal. The Blazers are 0-12 on the road under head coach Trent Dilfer and are 0-7 following a win, covering none of those games. 10* (346) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the OREGON ST. BEAVERS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Oregon St. got rolled at home against who we think is a very underrated California team so we missed on that easy cover but it sets up a situation to take the Beavers in a great bounce back spot. The Beavers were one of the most inexperienced teams in the country last season but opened up 4-1 before faltering after that to finish 5-7 but now they are in the top 30 in experience even though that did not show last week. Duke transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy was not horrible but we do expect a better game after facing an improved Cal defense. They gave up two passing touchdowns in the first quarter so they had to play from behind and we do not expect the Bulldogs to take advantage. Fresno St. lost big at Kansas to open the season but bounced back last week at home against Georgia Southern and are now back on the road in a bad spot. The big concern about Fresno St. and the coaching is that there is no FBS head coaching or coordinator coaching among the three. 10* (350) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Saturday Contrarian Crusher. In one of our video conference previews, one of the futures was to play Rutgers under 5.5 +120 with part of the thinking a split in the first two games against the MAC and the Scarlet Knights nearly lost the first one against Ohio, escaping with a three-point win. This is an experienced team but there is still a lack of talent and they cannot be laying this number which is slightly higher than what they put down last week. The offense was good but not great against the Bobcats as they gained only 399 yards and were shut down in the second half after adjustments were made. The defense was the big concern as they allowed 440 total yards and this is where the issues were last season. Miami did not get on the scoreboard last week against another Big Ten team, losing 17-0 at Wisconsin. Kudos to the defense allowing only 17 points and that was with the Badgers possessing the ball for 39 minutes. The RedHawks has the ball for under 21 minutes so it is hard to get a take but we are all over this number. 10* (353) Miami RedHawks

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Saturday Revenge Rout. UTSA is our pick to win the AAC and they were one of the favorites last season and while they were undefeated at home, it was the opposite on the road where they went 0-6 including a pair of bad losses at Rice and Tulsa by a combined three points. They are coming off a decent performance at Texas A&M as both sides were competent against a tough P4 team and now are back home. This offense is going to be elite once again. They bring back quarterback Owen McCown, part of nine offensive starters coming back and will not lay up here. This is an intense rivalry as these schools are 50 miles apart and UTSA is out for major revenge following a 49-10 loss last season. Texas St. is coming off a win at home over Eastern Michigan as the offense racked up 606 total yards while putting up 52 points but the defense was a concern, allowing 391 yards against an offense that brought back only four starters on a bad road team. Texas St. will be on the wrong end of this I-35 rivalry that could get ugly. 10* (360) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for a CFB Conference Game of the Month. Liberty is picked to win Conference USA but is coming off a lethargic season opener as it defeated Maine 28-7, needing 21 fourth quarter points to break a 7-7 tie and the Flames outgained Maine by only a 391-316 margin. This result only helps us here as that score against the Black Bears will keep bettors off and that is just fine as the value is in place. The Flames bring back an experienced offense led by transfer quarterback Ethan Vasko but it is the defense that is the strength with eight starters back and No. 1 ranked among all three levels. Liberty had its 12-game home winning streak snapped last season with a 31-21 upset loss to the Gamecocks so there is revenge in play. We won with Jacksonville St. last week which was more of a play against UCF which is young and inexperienced. That is the case for the Gamecocks as well as they have just six starters backs and are No. 136 in experience among 136 teams. The reigning C-USA championship fall flat early Saturday. 10* (325) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Friday Enforcer. Brazil Part 2 takes place Friday and it unfortunately takes away a home divisional game for the Chargers and while many will argue their home fan base is awful, it hands the Chiefs a neutral site AFC West gift. Kansas City enters the season in a foul mood after a blowout loss in the Super Bowl against Philadelphia and the main argument coming into the early part of the season is that they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder following a 15-2 regular season that did not come to fruition. The Chiefs were the luckiest team in the NFL last season as 11 of those wins were one possession games including six wins by a field goal or less or in overtime. The Chiefs covered the first meeting last season by a half-point as they won 17-10 as 6.5-point favorites and taking that away, the Chiefs went 0-5 ATS in the AFC West while the Chargers went 5-0 ATS against division opponents. Los Angeles had a successful first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh as it went 11-6 before getting trounced in Houston with Justin Herbert tossing four interceptions after throwing three during the entire regular season. Talk about a team with a chip on its shoulder. This roster is one of the better ones in the league as the offense got Kennan Allen back at receiver and upgraded the rushing attack with Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton. The defense must rise to the occasion against the better competition if they want to continue to build on a team that was basically in a rebuild last season. 10* (454) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Signature Enforcer Move. The advanced line was 16 so we have not seen much movement which is surprising based on the Northern Illinois performance last week as they barely escaped Holy Cross 19-17. That was a gut check win for a team that brings back only five starters with every playmaker having left the program via graduation or transfer. The Huskies hit the road which would be an issue for most teams coming off a small FCS win and now facing a P4 team but this has been an ideal spot as Northern Illinois is 26-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last 10 years. We need better quarterback play from Josh Holst who was average but does have a good matchup while getting a ton of points. Maryland rolled over Florida Atlantic 39-7 but that was a very misleading final score as they benefited from six interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and a safety and in the end, the Terrapins outgained the Owls by only 26total yards. Maryland is very inexperienced as well and will be in for a fight. 10* (315) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction Winner. James Madison and Louisville are both coming off blowout wins over FCS teams to open the season and the bar is raised for both. The Dukes defeated Weber St. by 35 points and hit the road in hopes of a repeat of what they did last season when they went on the road and defeated another ACC team, North Carolina, by a score of 70-50. Things will be a little tougher this time around. James Madison brings back quarterback Alonza Barnett as well as its top two running backs but that is about it and this offense could struggle against an experienced yet underrated defense. The Cardinals built a 41-0 lead over Eastern Kentucky and then took the foot off the pedal and overall put up 542 yards of offense. USC transfer quarterback Miller Moss did not play well as he threw two interceptions but we can chalk that up to the first game in the new system. Louisville is the No. 7 most experienced team in the country and will not let up with a bye and then Bowling Green up next. 10* (314) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. The NFL Kickoff Game is a divisional game for the first time since 2012 and that gives us the angle to go contrarian with the public all over Philadelphia. The Eagles are getting 84 and 85 percent of the money at two prominent public books and this line which was at 7 a week ago has now crossed over that key number. Philadelphia comes in looking to defend its Super Bowl Championship and this has been a great spot as since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 16-4. The cover rate is not close to that though. Is Dallas really in shambles? No, the Cowboys are just fine as the takeaway is they are now in rebuild mode after sending Micah Parsons to the Packers but we have to look at the facts that this defense was awful with or without him last season. What we have here is a divisional game with a number that is inflated due to public perception and recency bias and this is where the value is. We have a contrarian power angle as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.7 or more yppl last season, in weeks 1-3. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1%) since 2021 with an average scoring differential of -0.4 ppg. 10* (451) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Monday Enforcer. North Carolina had 88 percent of the money back in mid-August and it has done a complete flip with TCU now getting 64 percent of the money and the line is showing that. We are backing the steam and going with the proven product as TCU comes in as the No. 21 most experienced team in the country following a 9-4 season and the Horned Frogs are legitimate Big 12 Conference contenders. Offensively, they are led by quarterback Josh Hoover who threw for a school record 3,949 yards with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The receiving corps lost a ton but they are deep and actually come in as the No. 2 ranked unit in the conference and No. 19 in the country. On the other side of the ball, TCU returns eight starters to a defense that was No. 25 in opponent yards per play. We all know the story on the other side so we will not get into that. Instead we look at the inexperience with just 38 players returning and the Tar Heels come in as the third lowest team in the ACC in experience and No. 92 in the country. The biggest loss is running back Omarion Hampton and at quarterback, South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez won the job and it will take time. The bigger concern is defense, no matter how good the defensive coaching is, as only five starters are back. 10* (233) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Sunday Enforcer. Virginia Tech came into last season with major hype as they returned 20 starters as were picked by a few to win the ACC but fell flat with a 6-7 record. Now the hype is not there and the Hokies are a buy-low team that no one is talking about. It is far from a rebuild but changes were made as they hired Philip Montgomery as offensive coordinator and Sam Siefkes as defensive coordinator, the latter being an outstanding hire. The offense did not improve much from 2023 but the new coordinator should improve things and quarterback Kyron Drones could be ready for a breakout and he will not be facing the 2024 Gamecocks defense today. Defensively, they hit the transfer portal hard and will be a huge improvement. South Carolina was a huge surprise last season as it was picked between No. 11 and No. 13 in the SEC and tied for No. 4 and finished 9-4. The defense was outstanding, allowing 18.1 ppg on 317 ypg but the Gamecocks lost a ton of talent on that side with five players being drafted. The offense improved by some from 2023 with a lot of that credit going to freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers who was outstanding but had issues with ball control and Virginia Tech has had a few months to figure him out. 10* (229) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Game of the Month. A team with one of the biggest bad tastes in their mouths has to be Alabama as it opened 4-0 including a win over Georgia but ended up finishing 9-4 which was its worst record in 17 seasons. Head coach Kalen DeBoer came into a tough situation with only 11 returning starters and having to replace the greatest college football coach ever. The situation is better in Year Two as the Crimson Tide have 15 starters back and while they lose quarterback Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson has incredible talent and while he cannot match the running ability, he will improve upon the 16:11 TD:INT ratio. This roster is one of the best in the country and they will be out for blood in game one. Alabama has won 23 straight season openers and there will be plenty of motivation in this edition. Florida St. was a mess last season and while it will be better, no one really knows how much better. 16 starters are back and are led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos, a transfer from Boston College was benched and left the team. And he has been barking to Alabama. Bad move. 10* (211) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Early Three-Pack. Kentucky suffered its first losing season since 2015 as it went 4-8 including just three FBS wins. Expectations are extremely low once again as the Wildcats are picked to finish No. 15 in the 16-team SEC and these are two scenarios we love come the season opener. This is a team that has heard how bad it was and how bad it is expected to be all offseason and that is a huge motivator. Eight starters are back on offense and despite only five starters returning on defense, they will be fine with head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White knowing their defense. While it was a tough season, the Wildcats did roll over eventual MAC Champion Ohio so we are seeing another MAC advantage. Kentucky has won 17 straight meetings against the MAC, going 13-4 ATS. Toledo is the favorite to win the MAC and while this is obviously a very talented team, it is still the MAC vs. the SEC. The Rockets did roll over Mississippi St. last season on the road but the Bulldogs were one of the worst P4 teams in the country. 10* (192) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS as part of our CFB Saturday Early Three-Pack. Tennessee made it to the CFP last season before getting blitzed by eventual National Champion Ohio St. There is expected to be regression this season as the Volunteers are the third least experienced team in the SEC but this is a spot to hammer. The Kickoff Classic will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium so while this is a neutral site game, this is SEC country with the Tennessee fans always being great travelers. The offense was excellent once again last season but there are questions, namely at running back and wide receiver. Quarterback Joey Aguilar should be just fine operating behind a strong offensive line. Defensively is where the strength is similar to last season and they should dominate here. Syracuse is coming off its best season in years under first year head coach Fran Brown and now they are looking at a bottom half finish in the ACC after a 10-win season overall and a 5-3 record in the conference. The offense lost nearly everyone with only two starters back and on defense, the Orange have just six starters returning. 10* (182) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Early Three-Pack. Northwestern is not getting a lot of love after a 4-8 season as its win total is at 3.5 and the Wildcats are expected to finish bottom four in the Big Ten Conference. Last season Northwestern had to play its home games all off campus due to renovations of Ryan Field so there was no real home field advantage and this is the case again this season but we are not concerned about that in this road game. Head coach David Braun is in his third season and the 15 returning starters are the most he has had so this is a team that could easily overachieve. The rushing offense should flourish and quarterback Preston Stone who transferred in from SMU is a huge upgrade. Tulane contended in the AAC last season as it finished 7-1 but lost to Army in the championship game and then got rolled by Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. We expect a tumble as the Green Wave lost a lot to the transfer portal namely Darian Mensah who left for Duke as well as all everything running back Makhi Hughes and their top receivers. Early sell high spot. 10* (203) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Early in the season, linemakers and the public have limited data, which leads to inflated numbers for teams that are favored and we are seeing that here. Charlotte could be a team on the rise following five straight losing seasons. The 49ers hired a new head coach Tim Albin who comes in from Ohio and he is an excellent hire as he had a rough first year with the Bobcats but then went 31-10 from 2022-2024 including a MAC Championship. This is a young team that is in a rebuild but it makes it easier with a coach that likes to run the ball, Ohio was No. 12 in rushing last season, and has a solid offensive line. Albin brought in both co-defensive coordinators from his defense that was No. 9 last season. Appalachian St. is in a very similar situation as it is a rebuild with only seven returning starters and a new head coach in Dowell Loggains. The Mountaineers had their first losing season ever in FBS since entering in 2014 and we are not sure what to expect this season. The defense was awful and Loggains is an offensive coach and the defensive will be relying on a ton over lower level transfers. Charlotte is a live home underdog. 10* (160) Charlotte 49ers

This is a play on the HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This line has done a flip and justifiably so. Hawaii comes into the season with high expectations, at least high expectations for a team that has had a losing record in four straight seasons. The Rainbow Warriors are the fourth most experienced team in the Mountain West Conference and they bring back 15 starters including nine on defense. That defense improved by 6.2 ppg from 2023 so this is a huge advantage heading into the season. On offense, they bring in a new quarterback but one that has experience and has massive potential as Micah Alejado appeared in two games last season, going 11-12 in relief in one game and in his start, he went 37-57 for 469 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Stanford fall has been one of the biggest and fastest for a Power Four program that we have seen in sometime. There is no structure right now and this downward spiral could last a bit longer. This team is going to struggle on offense as the quarterbacks are raw with little receiver talent to throw to. Defensively, the Cardinal were No. 107 overall and No. 116 in points allowed and while they do have experience returning, the struggles will continue as it has been five straight seasons of allowing at least 31 ppg. 10* (312) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Opening Kickoff Saturday. Similar to 2024, the first game of the season takes place in Dublin and it is a conference opener, a big one for both sides. Kansas St. is the favorite along with Arizona St. to win the Big 12 Conference and while the Wildcats should contend, we do not think they are the team to beat in this conference. They bring back just 10 starters and while there is experience all around, it could take time and this is not the ideal first game for a team with a number of questions. The offense regressed last season but they bring back quarterback Avery Johnson who needs to be more accurate and his leading receiver Jayce Brown also returns. Despite losing running back DJ Giddens, Kansas St. has the No. 1 ranked running back unit in the conference based on four returning players but it is tough to predict if one can step up. Iowa St. is our prediction to win the conference as the Cyclones are coming off an 11-3 season, the first double-digit winning season in program history and the pieces are in place to make another deep run like last season. The offense has seven starters back with quarterback Rocco Becht now in his third season as the starter while the defense has been consistent as it has allowed between 20.3 and 25.9 ppg every year since 2017. 10* (305) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Super Bowl Side Winner. One of the arguments for backing the Chiefs is that they simply find ways to win and that cannot be argued. At last check, the Eagles do the same. They have won 15 of their last 16 games with the only loss coming against Washington in Week 16 when Jalen Hurts was knocked out in the early part of the first quarter. Betting against Patrick Mahomes in these spots has been futile based on the results but this will be his biggest test at least on paper. This offense is still lacking consistency and coming into the Divisional Round, Kansas City was the third lowest EPA offense and now faces the top ranked defense in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA. The pass rush of the Eagles can make a difference and against a reshuffled Chiefs offensive line, Kansas City is going to see too much of Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams. While the defense will be a difference maker, what the offense has accomplished under coordinator Kellen Moore has been outstanding. The addition of Saquon Barkley cannot be overstated and he will be facing a Chiefs defense that has regressed against the run as since Week 11, Kansas City No. 20 in Defensive Rushing EPA and No. 24 in Success Rate. The Chiefs only option from a vanilla blueprint is to load the box to try and slow him down and make Jalen Hurts beat them, which he can do as well. The loaded box can be an issue with Barkley getting past that first line and he will be gone, just like the first play from scrimmage against Washington. We can go through all of the data but no need as the only info necessary is the Eagles were one of two of the final eight teams ranked top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, the other being Detroit and as mentioned, they have by far the best roster. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Championship Winner. Buffalo possibly got away with one last week against Baltimore as the Bills dominated early, were dominated late and were the beneficiaries of a dropped two-point conversion that got them to the AFC Championship. We do not know what would have happened in overtime but it was trending toward the Ravens yet they move on in what is a much better matchup and after opening as a pickem, it quickly shot up to -1.5 in favor of the Chiefs and it has hit 2 across the board as of Wednesday night and we are not sure which way the public is going to go come closer to game time but we are guessing it will be Kansas City based on the fact the late Chiefs money last week moved the line a point in the final 30 minutes before kickoff which made or broke many tickets after the well-played safety. The Kansas City run is unprecedented with how they have won so many one possession games in a row (14) and won again last week despite getting outgained 336-212 and it is uncanny to think a team can win an elimination game by more than one possession with only 212 yards of offense. With another result like that being taken into account, the metrics still have Kansas City No. 1 in the Luck Rankings and the expected line being Buffalo favored by 2.5 points which is also right on point with the Sagarin Ratings. That is taking home field into consideration but is not taking the Buffalo struggles against the Chiefs in the postseason and this is arguably the best Buffalo team coming in and they are five spots ahead of Kansas City in Net EPA. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters and then rolled over Denver. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. 10* (103) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Winner. People will look to the second meeting that saw Washington win the game 36-33 and immediately think the Commanders can do it again and while it is certainly a possibility, things are different. Going back to the first meeting in Week 11, the Eagles won 26-18 after falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter and they outscored Washington 26-3 after that before the Commanders tacked on a garbage score and added on garbage yardage in the final minutes which skewed the Eagles 434-264 overall domination. Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels was 22-32 for 191 yards with one touchdown and one interception, that touchdown being on that final meaningless drive. In that second meeting we referred to, Philadelphia had to play the entire game except for one series without quarterback Jalen Hurts who left the game with an injury and they had to turn to Kenny Pickett who was not horrible but it was obvious the whole team was going through the motions after Hurts left and Washington still had to close on a 22-6 fourth quarter run to win on another last second touchdown. Those first two skewed results are playing into this line as the Eagles closed as seven-point favorites last week once the public action hit on Sunday and they only opened as five-point favorites here and that is Washington overreaction from the whole season and especially last week with its upset at Detroit. One look at the recent results before Detroit shows struggles Tampa Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, that Eagles game, and New Orleans where they were fortunate to get through any of those with a win. We can go through all of the data but no need as the only info necessary is the Eagles were one of two of the final eight teams ranked top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and now are the only one of the remaining four teams. We have this line at 8 so anything under a touchdown is a gift. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our CFP National Championship. This line opened at 9.5 in most places, dropped to 8.5 almost immediately then went up and down between 8 and 9 for two days and has settled in at 8 since late Wednesday. We are seeing the majority of the money being a mixed bag, with 56 percent of the betting handle on Ohio St. at Caesars and 66 percent on Notre Dame at BetMGM. Notre Dame wants nothing more than an ugly game and its only hope to win this is in a defensive game as a shootout is not in their favor. The Fighting Irish are facing the toughest defense they have seen this season and through the playoffs, they have faced defenses ranked No. 7, 8 and 9 in Defensive EPA and now they go against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA. Notre Dame has scored 27, 23 and 27 points but has benefitted from turnovers and short field as they have failed to surpass 400 yards in those three games after staying under 400 yards just four times during the regular season. They will not change their gameplan of running the ball and eating the clock and the extra time off benefits them. The other side is the bigger concern and the plan here has to be to try and lock down the wide receivers and make the Buckeyes run the ball. Ohio St. has not gone over 185 rushing yards in any of their last 12 games because they have not needed to because of their elite passing game. Notre Dame has the defense as well as they are No. 1 in Defensive Dropback EPA so if the coaching can win the gameplan and control the clock while not turning the ball over, this is a game they should cover and can even win outright if it is a one possession game entering the fourth quarter. The meeting last season was the perfect blueprint and the coaching edge favors the Irish to execute that again. 10* (288) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the game of the weekend and the home field will be the difference. We cashed easily with Buffalo last week even after they fell behind 7-0 in the first few minutes of the game. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. It is the playoffs so we cannot bank on any revenge but the Bills will have that extra step after getting blasted in Baltimore 35-10 in Week Four in what was a horrible spot playing on short rest in their third straight primetime game. Baltimore is playing at a peak level now as it has won and covered five straight games with all of the victories by at least two touchdowns but it was expected according to the markets as the Ravens were favored by at least 6.5 points in all of those games. But we do not think they should be laying points here although it is close to a pickem as it is based on public perception with everyone talking about them and Buffalo has not been a home underdog since the final week of the 2020 season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again leading an offense that is No. 1 in Offensive EPA. The Ravens have averaged 29.6 ppg on the road against teams allowing 22.4 ppg but the Bills are giving up just 16.4 ppg at home and the loss of Zay Flowers is huge for the Ravens. Turnovers are huge in these swing games and Buffalo has the situational edge as we play against road teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 67-26 (72 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.9 ppg. 10* (394) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Divisional Game of the Year. There are two teams remaining in the postseason that are ranked in the top ten on both Offensive and Defensive EPA, Detroit and Philadelphia, with both tied at No. 5 for best in Net EPA. The Eagles had the one hiccup against Washington where they lost 36-33 on a last second touchdown and they have now won 13 of 14 games since a 2-2 start and the loss to Tampa Bay was the only one of the three that was not decided in the final half minute. This team is built to win right now and while we played against them last week, they were focused enough to win that game even if the Packers did not get hit with the numerous injuries they incurred throughout the game. We won with the Rams over Minnesota on Monday with that being just as much of a play fading the overrated Vikings as it was playing on the Rams. Los Angeles was displaced to Arizona for the few days leading up to that game and it was a moment where they felt a surreal situation according to a few of the players and the game was their focus. Now having to go back to Los Angeles to pack up again, the reality of the tragic situation has set in and while real life and football are usually separated, this is a tough one. The Rams now have to make the long trip out east in a very tough spot. This game sets up similarly for the Rams as it did with Houston and we are going against the disadvantage here. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. While the game was moved to Arizona, the Rams were still listed as the home underdog and teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. 10* (392) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Divisional Rd. Opener. This line has been fluctuating by a half-point back and forth as it opened at 7.5 or 8 and went up and down and it is currently at its highest point at 8.5 as of Wednesday night. This may be the square play of the weekend but this is the game where we can see the real potential which has been very rare. Kansas City finished with a 15-2 record and taking away the Week 18 game where they rested starters, they outscored opponents by just under 6 ppg which is not great considering having only one loss. The Chiefs won 11 games by just one possession and now come in favored by more than one possession in most places which makes Houston appealing but this is the one game we can see Kansas City pouring it on before facing either Baltimore or Buffalo. We are seeing a five-point swing from just a month ago when Houston came to town and that will scare some off Kansas City and even flip to the Texans. Houston dominated the Chargers mainly because Justin Herbert picked the wrong time to place the worst game of his career and that was only the second win this season for the Texans against a team that made the playoffs while getting outgained in six of their last nine games. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. This has been an amazing play against situation as teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss and coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.8 ppg. 10* (388) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This line has been all over the place as the Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites in some spots, immediately went to 4.5 before then going to 5.5 and now coming back down to 4.5. No matter the move, the line opened too high in a rematch from opening week in Brazil in a game that was won by the Eagles by five points but could have gone either way with the teams separated by just four total yards. Green Bay closed the season with a pair of two-point losses to finish 11-6 which is an over the top record for a No. 7 seed and they are right on plane in this rematch. The Packers finished No. 8 in Offensive EPA and No. 4 in Defensive EPA, one of only three teams in the postseason in the top ten in both categories, joining Philadelphia and Detroit. The Eagles got off to a sluggish 2-2 start but went on to win 10 straight games before a loss against Washington and then won a pair of meaning less divisional games to close the season. Philadelphia has one of the best rosters in the NFL, there is no doubt, but there are some concerns on both sides heading into this game. While they finished 14-3, it came against a schedule ranked No. 31 in the NFL compared to the Packers that played the No. 10 ranked schedule so the top ten EPA rankings are a bit skewed. We feel these teams are more even than what the line is saying and should be at 3. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.2 ppg. 10* (381) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Buffalo heads into the postseason off a loss at New England in a meaningless game where starters were rested and while some say that kills momentum, not with this team. This Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. The Broncos put together a great season that was unexpected with rookie quarterback Bo Nix who beat out Jarrett Stidham in the preseason for the starting spot and he has been very good with a 93.3 passer rating. Now comes a real test in a real environment. Denver had two wins against playoff teams in the regular season, this past Sunday over Kansas City and a Week Three victory over the Buccaneers where Tampa Bay was off a win at Detroit and Philadelphia on deck so it was a sleepy spot for the home team. Here, we play against road underdogs after three consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 47-6 (88.7 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg and this system is 7-0 this season. 10* (380) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Pittsburgh and Baltimore roll into the postseason on complete opposite runs and the Ravens are getting steamed because of this. Baltimore finished the season with four straight wins and covers and that does include a 17-point home win over Pittsburgh which many will point to when it comes to the third rematch but the Steelers were not at full strength in that last meeting. The Ravens finished No. 1 in Offensive EPA, No. 1 in Passing and No. 2 in Rushing so this is a dynamic offense that put up 34 points three games back. Now the Ravens are laying two more points with extra juice in some places making this number likely to reach 10 which is too big in a divisional playoff game in our opinion. The Steelers come limping into the postseason on a 0-4 run but they had a brutal last month to the season as they had to face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days and then got Cincinnati to cap it off. Pittsburgh has relied on its defense all season and while it slipped some down the stretch, this is still a top ten unit in EPA. This will have to be a ball control game to even think about a win as a shootout is not going to get it done but we are obviously more in tune with the number that is inflated with 94 percent of early money on the Ravens. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +0.0 ppg. 10* (377) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Wild Card Opener. Some might be surprised that the Chargers are favored on the road but it is justified. Los Angeles did not defeat a team that is in the playoffs besides its sweep of Denver while losing its five games against current playoff teams so that will be a concern to some but the momentum is important as the Chargers are 8-3 over their last 11 games, losses to Kansas city, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, the last one being the anomaly that was a sandwich game between the Chiefs and Broncos. The defense finished No. 5 in EPA and was top ten against both the run and pass with the offense ranking nine spots better in EPA than the Texans. The Chargers went 10-2 this season as favorite. After opening the season 5-1, the Texans closed 5-6 including bad losses against the Jets and Titans while scoring only two points two games back against Baltimore. Injuries have played a part in the passing game with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell going down with season ending injuries and while Joe Mixon had a solid season running the ball, Houston was just No. 23 in Rushing EPA. The receiving injuries definitely hurt the production of quarterback C.J. Stroud but he looked off from the start and his passer rating finished over 13 points lower than his rookie season. Houston was just one of three playoff teams that has one or fewer wins against top ten rated teams. They were fortunate to play in the worst division in the league where they went 5-1 against three teams that finished No. 23 or worse in overall rating. 10* (375) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our Cotton Bowl Annihilator. We are seeing an overreaction with this line as Ohio St. has rolled in its two games in the CFP as it jumped out to big early leads against both Tennessee and Oregon and coasted the rest of the way. Almost anyone and everyone is anointing them as the likely National Champions but with those last two games where they changed the dynamic of their offense, game planning becomes easier with more to look at and while executing is a different story, Texas has the team to do it. Slowing down a rejuvenated TreVeyon Henderson at running back is also vital. He rushed for 174 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 9.8 ypc against Tennessee and Oregon. The Longhorns defense was uncharacteristically sloppy against the Sun Devils, but they have the defensive line that stands firm against the run with the ability to get after the quarterback. The secondary is underrated with dynamic playmakers Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba that can slow down this revamped Ohio St. passing game. On the other side, the Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to struggling in the SEC championship and again against Arizona St. sandwiched around a dominant rushing performance against Clemson and that is what they need to regain here. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is coming off one of his best games of the season so getting back that balance can lead to the outright victory. Ohio St. is ranked No. 1 in the country in Net EPA while Texas comes in at No. 2 and this is with the Longhorns playing the slightly tougher schedule. Our two sets of power ratings have Ohio St. as a 2.5 and 3 point favorite so that is where the overreaction is and we feel these teams are much more even than what the line is dictating. Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games away from home coming off a non-cover where it won as a favorite. 10* (286) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our Orange Bowl Dominator. Notre Dame has covered 10 straight games and that is a streak we would like to fade but they were favored big in the first nine games and closed as a one point favorite against Georgia and are now slightly favored against Penn St. so winning by margin has not been an issue in this game and the last game. This game sets up very similar to the Georgia game as this is a strength against strength (Penn St. offense vs. Notre Dame defense) and slight weakness against slight weakness (Notre Dame offense vs. Penn St. defense) but there are integral parts within each of those that gives Notre Dame the edge. Notre Dame rushed for 154 yards against Georgia and on the season, the Irish are second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 ypc and 3.94 YAC which is No. 1 in the country. Quarterback Riley Leonard led the way with 80 rushing yards and while he threw for just 90 yards, he did not need to throw a ton or take deep chances. His dual-threat ability allows him to avoid the pass rush with an 11.5 percent pressure-to-sack rate which is No. 6 among Power Four quarterbacks. Notre Dame is 20-4 ATS when rushing for more than 100 yards since 2023. Penn St. was able to lock down the coveted No. 5 seed and has had the easiest path to the CFP Semifinals with games against SMU and Boise St. This is more of a run heavy offense as well as quarterback Drew Allar averages only 24.7 attempts per game which is No. 53 out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. It will be his ability to find his receivers in one-on-one coverage on second and third down which could dictate how long the offense stays on the field and we do not think he will have success. On the other side, the strength is in the secondary as the Nittany Lions are No. 7 in the country in yards allowed per dropback at 5.2 but Notre Dame does not need to throw to win as we have seen. 10* (283) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. This is the biggest swing line of the week as Kansas City would be a four-point favorite with both teams at full strength and now we are seeing a 15-point swing with the number which is ludicrous. The Chiefs have been in this position before under head coach Andy Reid with nothing to play for and resting starters yet they have gone 3-1 against the number in the four games with this same scenario. Quarterback Carson Wentz gets the start for Kansas City and while his career has spiraled down, he is a veteran with a ton of experience with the ability to move the ball, something we did not see yesterday with Bailey Zappe and the Browns. Denver needs the win after the Bengals victory over the Steelers on Saturday and the line has moved even more. This opened at 6.5 which was a big adjustment to begin with and it now up to 11 across all shops. 10* (345) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. As expected, with the Bengals win on Saturday, this line has made a slight move but the big shift was made mid-week with this number sitting at 4.5 and then went up to 6.5 and now 7 in most shops. The Chargers can improve their seeding and it is a big one because a win means having to face Houston in the Wild Card Round while a loss means a trip to Baltimore, a scenario they do not want. So the must win aspect is going to put the public all over Los Angeles which is why the number is what it is. The Raiders have won two straight games and with the exception of a dud in Tampa Bay, they have been playing well over the last month and a half. Quarterback Aiden O’Connell has been solid the last two games and this team will be playing hard in a divisional rivalry while the Raiders have covered six straight games after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (348) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. The Falcons need to win and have Tampa Bay lose to get into the postseason so they have to get the job done here. Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay after beating the Buccaneers in both regular season matchups. But the Falcons are overpriced here, laying over a touchdown against a team that continues to fight despite the result last week. The Panthers fell down early against Tampa Bay and could not recover but quarterback Bryce Young had another strong game and he looks like a different quarterback than the one that was benched after Week Two. After opening the season 1-7 ATS, the Panthers are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games and this is the perfect buy low spot with an overadjusted number. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (351) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is an absolute dud of a final week schedule in the NFL with only one game that matches up with both teams playing for something but there are plenty of scenarios still out there for many teams in terms of needing to win to possibly get in as well as seeding scenarios and we are going against a few of those now that we finally have the necessary info. Washington is in the playoffs and is playing for seeding as a victory here puts them in the No. 6 seed and a much better matchup in the Wild Card Round as loss means a trip to Philadelphia. That being said, this is another overadjusted line with the markets forced to inflate the number, and it continues to rise, on a team that needs to win against a team playing for nothing but pride. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss at Philadelphia but had won four of their previous five games so they have been playing well and are in the top 10 in DVOA over this stretch. This is another steam with this number opening at 4 and is now up to 7 at most shops because of the near must win aspect for Washington and going back, teams that lose by 31 or more points that are underdogs of four or more are on a 68 percent run the following week. 10* (354) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is a wait move, do not bet this now because there will be value on Saturday. We are grabbing Pittsburgh here for a few reasons but we cannot bet it now. The Steelers are locked into the playoffs with a chance to win the AFC North but that will likely be gone by early Saturday when Baltimore beats Cleveland. As of Friday, the line is 2.5 after going down to 1.5 but came back up and we will likely see a move once the Ravens are close to clinching and this is why we wait. Once the Ravens clinch, Pittsburgh has nothing to play for is the common theory but that is far from true. The Steelers still have some on the line and off the top, they are not going to lay down for the Bengals which are still in the playoff hunt as if nothing else, this is the spoiler spot to knock a rival out of the playoffs. On their end, a win here locks them in the No. 5 spot which means going to Houston which is the ideal spot that every team would want. A loss means going to Baltimore for the first round which should be avoided. The books are smart knowing the scenarios so it might not steam up much but this is a wait and watch opportunity to get the best number as it will definitely not go down. This is a must win for the Bengals which are playing their best football of the season and that is why they are already favored and these must win games can be a problem with lines already shaded. 10* (356) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Mayo Bowl Annihilator. 13 teams from the ACC made it to a bowl game this season and the first 12 have gone 0-12 ATS (Louisville could be considered a win based on close) which is historically embarrassing so the Hokies are the last chance for the conference to save face. The transfer portal and opt outs are key components when looking at bowl games and both teams have some big losses with Virginia Tech taking the brunt of it as it will be down double-digit starters, including running back Bhayshul Tuten, edge rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles and quarterback Kyron Drones. Because of this, the line has more than doubled from the opener but in this case, it is too much. The Hokies fired defensive coordinator Chris Marve and Shawn Quinn will take over but there will be help from Bud Foster, a former longtime Virginia Tech assistant, who has been working as a special assistant to the athletic director and his knowledge can help shore up this defense. On offense, quarterback Pop Watson will get the start and he was great in his start against Virginia, throwing for 254 yards while rushing for another 48 yards. Early this season, Minnesota was favored big over Rhode Island of the FCS and Nevada, which went on to go 3-10, but in its other five games it was favored, it was never more than 6.5 points. Now they are laying double digits against another Power 4 team and we cannot buy that, no matter how much the Hokies have lost. Three of their five Big Ten wins were by one possession. Another reason for the move is that Minnesota has the longest current bowl winning streak at seven games so many are riding that. The public is and will be all over Minnesota and we are going against that in this overinflated spot. 10* (280) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS for our Gator Bowl Annihilator. This is a game that Mississippi will be out to prove something even though it is not against a top tier opponent. Leading up to the bowl season, head coach Lane Kiffin would not stop talking about the system and how his team was excluded and if any coach will run it up, it is him. The Rebels finished 9-3 with all three losses by one possession albeit not good losses as none were against real quality opponents but a win over Georgia offsets some of that. They were solid on both sides, finishing No. 7 in Offensive EPA and No. 7 in Defensive EPA and this against a schedule ranked No. 6 in the country. Mississippi is 8-1 ATS in its last nine nonconference games with the average scoring differential +39 ppg. Duke had a surprising strong season with an identical 9-3 record but it was definitely skewed. The Blue Devils had six one possession wins and was actually outgained on the season by over three ypg which may sound insignificant but when there are nine wins, it is telling especially against a schedule ranked No. 50 in the country. Duke will be extremely shorthanded with starting quarterback Maalik Murphy and leading rusher Star Thomas both out. Henry Berlin IV, who attempted one pass, will make the start at quarterback while no other running back had more than 299 yards rushing. Looking at the luck factor, Duke was the fourth luckiest team in the country with a lot of that due to six of its nine wins coming by one possession, four by a field goal or in overtime while Mississippi was No. 117 showing luck was not needed and was unfortunate in certain situations. The three losses by one possession play a big role in that. 10* (276) Mississippi Rebels

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our Sugar Bowl Dominator. Notre Dame has covered nine straight games and that is a streak we would like to keep fading but they have obviously been favored in all of those games and now they are the underdog so that streak is meaningless. Georgia got the venue edge with this game being played in SEC country but it will be 50/50. Notre Dame defeated Indiana in the opening round 27-17 but it was a misleading final as the Hoosiers scored 14 of their points in the final 1:24 and that also skewed the stats. This is a strength against strength (Georgia offense vs. Notre Dame defense) and weakness against weakness (Notre Dame offense vs. Georgia defense) but there are integral parts within each of those that gives Notre Dame the edge. The big story is that Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is out and backup Gunner Stockton will make the start after throwing 32 passes all season. There is a disadvantage with his lack of experience but also, per PFF, Notre Dame is ranked No. 1 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and now get to face a backup quarterback. On the other side, Notre Dame is more than fine on offense as it is No. 16 in Offensive EPA going up against a Georgia defense that is No. 15 in Defensive EPA so it is a wash but there is an edge as Georgia has struggled immensely against duel threat quarterbacks and Notre Dame has one of the best in Riley Leonard. The Bulldogs have allowed a handful of quarterbacks that can run have success and the Irish will take advantage of this with Leonard who has rushed 135 times for 751 yards (5.6 ypc). Notre Dame is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (291) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the OHIO ST. BUCKEYES for our Rose Bowl Annihilator. This is the rematch of the epic battle won by Oregon in Eugene by one point and we give the edge to the Buckeyes on a neutral field at a fair price and what better venue than the Rose Bowl. Ohio St. shook off its stunning loss to Michigan with a resounding win over Tennessee in the opening round as they jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead and never looked back. It was a bad draw for the Buckeyes as they now have to face the top seed and are favored and the line has actually gone up despite 74 percent of the money coming in on the Ducks. Ohio St. has the No. 1 ranked defense in Defensive EPA with the offense coming in at No. 4 and the Buckeyes have the No. 1 Net EPA in the country. Oregon rolled through its schedule with only a few blips along the way but the Ducks have been vulnerable at times on the defensive side. The Ducks have played three teams that are currently in the playoffs, Boise St., Ohio St. and Penn St. and they allowed 34, 31 and 37 points. While it can be said Ohio St. got a bad draw, it can be argued the Ducks got a worse draw despite being the No. 1 seed. Looking at the Luck Ratings, Oregon was No. 6 in the country so it was one of the luckiest teams in the country while Ohio St. was No. 92 showing luck was not needed and was unfortunate in certain situations. Here, we play against teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 63-27 (70 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +3.2 ppg. 10* (271) Ohio St. Buckeyes

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our Fiesta Bowl Dominator. Penn St. was able to overwhelm SMU in the opening round of the playoffs thanks to its massive home field advantage and now faces another team from a lower conference and is laying a bigger number on a neutral field. They took advantage of SMU mistakes including a pair of interception returns for touchdowns but this is not a team that has a lot of takeaways as they are just No. 59 in the country. The Nittany Lions obviously played the tougher schedule based on being in the Big Ten Conference and is 12-2 overall, losing to Oregon and Ohio St. Past SMU, what was the best win? Based on the power rankings, it was Minnesota which is No. 30 in our two sets of ratings and that was by a single points, albeit it was on the road. Boise St. is No. 31. The Broncos got a first-round bye, which has been under debate, after a 12-1 season with the only loss coming against Oregon in Week Two by just three points in Eugene. Playing in the Mountain West Conference certainly helped but this team is solid all around and they will rely on Ashton Jeanty who is by far the best running back Penn St. has seen. As mentioned, the Nittany Lions were able to take advantage of miscues from SMU, but the Broncos rarely make mistakes as they are tied for No. 2 in turnovers lost with only four fumbles and four interceptions. It will be up to the Broncos defense to keep this within reach and the one liability has been the passing defense which is No. 106 in the country. That being said, teams were forced to pass in garbage time because they trailed so the numbers are skewed and based on metrics, they are No. 53 in Dropback EPA, not great but better than the top line numbers. 10* (268) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our Sun Bowl Annihilator. Can Louisville break the streak? The ACC is 0-10 ATS through the first 10 conference bowl games which is the worst record of all time per Brad Powers tweet and this just shows the ineptitude of this conference. Syracuse accounted for the only outright win but the Orange were favored by 19 points so that outlier comes with an asterisk. Louisville finished 8-4 as it won its final two games including a blowout win over rival Kentucky and those four losses were all by one possession. The difference heading into the postseason is the transfer portal and opt outs and the Cardinals have lost a lot. They have three key opt outs on offense as quarterback Tyler Shough and receivers Ja’Corey Brooks and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce V, two of the top three in yards, will be out which are big hits for an offense that was No. 11 in Offensive EPA. It was a disappointing season for Washington as it finished 6-6 but it was sort of expected with a new head coach and only six returning starters so the Huskies basically had to start from scratch. They got thumped by Oregon in the season finale which was a big revenge game for the Ducks. As far as the roster goes, head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anybody to sit out. The offense finished No. 35 in EPA and it was the defense that led the way as they were No. 22 in Defensive EPA under coordinator Steve Belichick who is headed to North Carolina but will be coaching this game. Here, we play against neutral field favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (262) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The scenario is simple which sets up a good spot on Monday night. With the Vikings win over the Packers, the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC will be on the line next week when the Lions take on the Vikings at Ford Field. That makes this game meaningless for Detroit yet with all of the talk from head coach Dan Campbell about how much this game means, which it does from a revenge standpoint, we are still seeing a line that has been on the move. It opened at 2.5 and has gone to 3.5 with 85 percent of the money on the Lions based on the rematch and now the value is on the 49ers. As much as Detroit wants it, things could change and that unknown is on our side. Obviously it has been a tough season for the 49ers as they have battled injuries and the preseason favorites to win the NFC are out of the playoffs. They have heard the talk all week and no way they will sit down here and while it is not a spoiler role, it is in fact a moment to prove something even though there is nothing on the line. This is a spot to buy low on a team that no one wants to back and we likely will not see a line move back the other way since it had not happened directly after the Minnesota game. The final home game on a Monday night will provide a great environment and a chance to fade huge public perception. 10* (432) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our Music City Bowl Dominator. Both Iowa and Missouri come in with similar momentum, having won each of their last two games. The Hawkeyes offense improved considerably this season as they finished No. 57 in Offensive Efficiency but will be facing a sneaky good defense and there is an even bigger issue. The transfer portal and opt outs are key components when looking at bowl games and both teams have some big losses but Iowa has sustained the biggest with running back Kaleb Johnson opting out for the NFL Draft. Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns this year and had 188 receiving yards and two scores. He accounted for 43.4 percent of Iowa’s offense this season so this loss is massive. Missouri is without receiver Luther Burden who is entering the NFL Draft and while he led the team in touchdowns, he was not the leader in yards so it is not as big of a blow as what Iowa is without. Missouri came into the season a top ten team but was unable to take care of the big guns on their schedule as the Tigers lost to their three toughest opponents in Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina. They have the edge in Net EPA, No. 23 to No. 30 and this is with Iowa having Johnson. The Hawkeyes played a very favorable Big Ten schedule with Ohio St. being the only team that finished in the top seven in the standings and overall it was ranked No. 55, just one spot ahead of Missouri. 10* (258) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. With the Tampa Bay loss last week, Atlanta controls its own destiny to win the NFC South as it clinches with a win here and at home against Carolina next week. The Falcons are coming off a win over the Giants, which is not saying much of course, in the first start for quarterback Michael Penix but it gave him a lot of confidence. He went 18-27 for 202 yards, no touchdowns and a pick that went off tight end Kyle Pitts’ hands. Penix finished with a 53 percent Success Rate, which is well above average for a rookie quarterback in his first start. Now he gets to face another bad defense and has the confidence. Washington got away with one last week as it got to face the Eagles with quarterback Jalen Hurts for basically the entire game. The Commanders got the win despite committing five turnovers. It got them to 10-5 and they can clinch a playoff berth with a win here but they are overvalued. The offense remains potent but the defense leaves a lot to be desired, sitting No. 24 in Defensive EPA and not having much to look at from Penix, we think that gives Atlanta a big edge. Here, we play against home favorites off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 28-7 (80 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.8 ppg. 10* Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. With this line being only 1, it is screaming Minnesota and that is why the side is Green Bay. The Packers have clinched a playoff berth with both sides of the ball playing exceptional. They have scored 30 or more points in five straight games while allowing 19 points or less in five of their last six games with the only exception being the game against Detroit on the road. Green Bay is top eight in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and is ranked No. 2 in the Sagarin Ratings so the line is right on the underlying metrics and comer Sunday, public money will be rolling in on the Vikings. A big reason is that Minnesota has won eight straight games with the horseshoe firmly inserted as the Vikings remain No. 2 in the Luck Ratings and these fortunate wins are eventually going to catch up. This has come against a schedule ranked No. 24 in the league and while it is a big game for Minnesota as well for obvious reasons, we cannot ignore the fact it has been outgained in three of its last four games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season averaging 370 or more ypg and after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 28-6 (82.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.5 ppg. 10* (425) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Tampa Bay has put itself in a bad position following its loss to Dallas last week despite outgaining the Cowboys by 90 yards as they were done in with a -2 turnover margin. The Buccaneers dropped from NFC South leaders to out of the playoff picture so now they need to finish with a better record than the Falcons to win the division since they lost both games to Atlanta. This is another one of those must win scenarios there is some value because of the opponent which we will get to. The Buccaneers are No. 7 in Offensive EPA and can take advantage of a bad defense. Carolina snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Arizona which eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention. After being one of the worst ATS teams in the first half of the season, going 1-7 ATS, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games which adds some value as does the fact Tampa Bay was favored by 6.5 points in Carolina so we are seeing only a 1.5-2 point venue move but we do not like the limited adjustment. Here, we play on home favorites averaging 27 or more ppg after two straight games where 50 or more points were scored going up against teams allowing 27 or more ppg. This situation is 39-2 (95.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +15.2 ppg. 10* (424) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Broncos are one win away from the playoffs and would like to get that taken care of Saturday in Cincinnati. The good news is that they have Kansas City in Week 18 and the Chiefs will likely rest starters but get it done here and there are no worries. Denver is coming off a loss at Los Angeles last week following a four-game winning streak and it was a tough spot against the Chargers playing on a short week with travel. The Broncos can secure a winning road record with a win and they are 6-2 ATS. Additionally, they are 5-0 ATS this season against losing teams. Give Cincinnati credit for not giving up after 0-3 and 1-4 starts and still have a small hope at the playoffs but we feel they are overvalued here. The defense shut Cleveland down last week, one of the few games the Bengals have done so as their defense is still No. 27 in Defensive EPA. The offense and quarterback Joe Burrow have kept the season alive as they are No. 7 in Offensive EPA but now face the No. 1 ranked team in Defensive EPA. Cincinnati has not been good at home, going 2-5 both straight up and against the number. Here, we play on road teams after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 45-12 (78.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.7 ppg. 10* (411) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. Colorado St. is coming off a better than expected season as it finished 8-4 which included six wins in their last seven games. One thing to note is the Colorado St. offense which has relied on running back Avery Morrow, who emerged as a difference-maker this season as the Rams changed a lot of their game plans when wide receiver Tory Horton was lost for the season. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is a talented quarterback who can take advantage of a RedHawks secondary missing key pieces. Colorado St. sold their full ticket allotment which is very rare for these lower-tiered bowl games. The Rams have had extra time to prepare as well. The RedHawks had a disappointing end to their season, losing 38-3 to Ohio in the MAC Championship and they could have a tough time rebounding from that. They had won seven straight games leading up to that and now will be playing without several key players. Left tackle Will Jados, wide receiver Reggie Virgil and wide receiver Javon Tracy all entered the transfer portal which will put quarterback Brett Gabbert in a tough situation and relying on the running game could not be an option after finishing No. 98 in EPA/rush and No. 117 in rushing success rate this. Here, we play against neutral field favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +1.2 ppg. 10* (250) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. We have seen a big move in this game as Iowa St. opened as a one point favorite but the line has moved to Miami now favored by 3.5 points in most places as of Friday morning. This is another game of motivation and more so preparation with the Hurricanes out on the recruiting trail to work on their roster next year with head coach Mario Cristobal basically admitting that. It was a devastating finish for Miami which lost two of their last three games including a loss against Syracuse in the season finale which killed any shot of a CFP berth and that disappointment carries over. Quarterback Cam Ward said he is playing but that could change and might not play the whole game. The portal has not hurt them that much but motivation will be a key factor here. Iowa St. is also coming off a tough finish as it lost to Arizona St. in the Big 12 Championship which took it out of the CFP but the Cyclones are saying the right things that they are actually using that as a motivator. This is the first 10-win season for the Cyclones under head coach Matt Campbell who is in his ninth season and the first in the 127-year history of the program and they want to keep it going. Iowa St. enters the bowl game averaging 30.2 ppg, which ranks No. 49 overall in the country. The Cyclones defense is allowing 21.5 ppg, which ranks No. 33 overall nationally and will be facing a top offense but one that will be out some key players. 10* (247) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Supreme Annihilator. The Chargers snapped a two-game losing streak with a big win over Denver to conclude a 5-3 home schedule and the playoff scenario is simple as the Chargers can ensure their playoff spot with a road win over the Patriots. Despite a couple rough games, the defense remains strong at No. 7 in Defensive EPA and while the offense has slowed down, they have a great matchup here. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season including 3-0 when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Patriots have lost five straight games including a three-point loss at Buffalo last week which was their Super Bowl and while they still face the Bills in Week 18, that game will likely be meaningless for Buffalo. This is definitely a letdown spot for New England and while it is back home following a two-game roadtrip, they have dropped both games at home following two road games and by more than what they are getting here. The defense has bottomed now, now at No. 30 in Defensive EPA after allowing 28.2 ppg during this losing skid. Here, we play on favorites allowing between 18 and 23 ppg and after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 30-3 (90.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +7.6 ppg. 10* (407) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. North Carolina will be without head coach Mack Brown who was fired earlier this season and Freddie Kitchens will serve as the interim coach for this game. The Tar Heels do have the metrics edges for this game bit that is meaningless in this game with the roster taking numerous hits in the transfer portal and opt outs, losing four starters to the former and in the latter, they will be without three huge pieces in running back Omarion Hampton, defensive end Kaimon Rucker and defensive tackle Jahvaree Ritzie. This is a team we expect to just go through the motions and have little motivation to be playing in cold Boston. Connecticut will be the more motivated team playing in their own region with fewer players declaring they are leaving and most that did will still be playing. The Huskies had a great season at 8-4 with three of those losses coming by one possession, two of those in true road games at Syracuse and Duke. They have the coaching edge with Jim Mora who has said that his team will be ready to play and that is the biggest key to bowl season going along the peripheral of who is actually playing. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +135 to -155 averaging between 28 and 34 ppg and after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games going up a team allowing between 28 and 34 ppg. This situation is 24-7 (77.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.5 ppg. 10* (241) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Las Vegas Bowl Dominator. We have seen a small line move in this game as it opened at 1 and has gone up to 4 in most spots with the USC roster taking a big hit. The Trojans lost 12 players to the transfer portal along with a pair of opt outs and this group includes all three starting wide receivers. Leading rusher Woody Marks has also opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. On the other side, USC has lost several defensive linemen to the transfer portal, while the Aggies are healthy across the offensive line. The Trojans improved on defense compared to the last couple years but are still struggling as they finished near the bottom of the Big Ten Conference in every major defensive category. Texas A&M closed the season with a pair of losses against Auburn and Texas to finish 8-4 which was an overall disappoint and the Aggies have made a commitment to the postseason. On Thursday, coach Mike Elko stated that this game represents a start to the 2025 season, especially for quarterback Marcel Reed, who looks to improve as a pocket passer and live up to his high expectations. They finished in the top 25 in both Offensive EPA and Defensive EPA and should give the Trojans fits on both sides. Here, play against neutral field underdogs after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. This situation is 67-15 (81.7 percent)since 1992 with a scoring differential of +13.0 ppg. 10* (239) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Armed Forces Bowl Dominator. This line opened as high as 9 in some spots and has plummeted with the Oklahoma roster devastated by transfers and opt outs. Overall, there are 16 players that will be unavailable including six starters, the big one being quarterback Jackson Arnold. True freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the start his receiving corps will be made up of all freshmen for the most part. It has been a rough stretch for Oklahoma which did have the upset over Alabama but its only other win since the start of October was against Maine. The Midshipmen are enjoying their best season since 2019 as they started out 6-0 and until a lopsided loss to Notre Dame began a run of three losses in four games. They capped the season with wins over East Carolina and Army so they bring the momentum in as well as most stable roster. Quarterback Blake Horvath leads the way and coming off a sensational game over Army and the offense brings in the ground-and-pound rushing attack that can use clock and keep the game lower scoring which favors the underdog while Oklahoma is not used to facing this style of offense. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. This situation is 177-111 (61.5 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +3.1 ppg. 10* (234) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our Thursday Bowl Dominator. Arkansas St. is coming off its first winning season in four years after finishing with only nine combined victories over the previous three seasons. The offense is fairly average as the Red Wolves finished No. 69 in total offense and an even worse No. 101 in Offensive EPA and all of this against a schedule ranked No. 107 in the country. The other side was even worse. The Red Wolves finished No. 129 in total defense, allowing 460.3 ypg and finished No. 11 in the Sun Belt Conference in scoring defense at 32.3 ppg allowed. Bowling Green is playing in its third consecutive bowl game and was a final win away from playing in the MAC Championship game. The Falcons lost to Miami Ohio in their season finale to fall short but this team is motivated and dedicated. While there are a few players that hit the transfer portal, all starters will be playing and will be playing for the win after losing those last two bowl games. The Falcons finished second in the MAC in pass defense and gave up only 16 touchdowns in conference games which was second best. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +17.1 ppg. 10* (230) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Star Attraction. Seattle closed its home schedule with a pair of losses against Green Bay and Minnesota and have gone from a division leader to currently out of the playoffs altogether. The Seahawks have to win out and get some help along the way so they need to roll here before heading to Los Angeles to face the Rams to close the regular season. Seattle has been a great team on the road as it is 5-1 including four straight wins with the lone loss coming at Detroit and has edges all over the field in this matchup. Chicago has been a bigger disaster than expected and it is safe to say the Bears have tossed in the hat. They have lost nine straight games with the last three showing how dysfunctional they are as the defense has been crushed over this recent stretch with interim head coach Thomas Brown, with the 49ers, Vikings, and Lions putting up a combined 102 points over the last three Bears losses. On the other side, the Bears offensive line has been awful having given up the second most sacks in the NFL this season, and that smells disaster taking on a defensive line that Seattle has. Here, we play against home teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after three straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +9.9 ppg. 10* (405) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Star Attraction. Houston has clinched the AFC South and is likely locked into the No. 4 spot for the playoffs so this line has gone from a -2.5 opener to now -5.5 in most spots because of what is more important on the other side. That being said, it is too much of a move giving a lot of value on the Texans which will be playing all of their starters before probably doing some rest next week. Houston has the No. 5 ranked defense in EPA and that is big against this Ravens offense hitting the road coming off a home win over the Steelers. Baltimore has won two straight games and has the outside shot of winning the AFC North which is why this line has gone where it is. They do have the No. 2 ranked offense in EPA but that does drop considerably in home/road splits and from a motivational standpoint, this being the final home game for the Texans gives them that after last loss last week in Kansas City, losing wide receiver Tank Dell and the team emotionally gone after that. Houston is 3-0 this season against the number against teams outscoring opponents by 6 or more ppg. 10* (404) Houston Texans

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Hawaii Bowl Dominator. The transfer portal affected so many bowl teams last season and we are seeing it again this year, both bowl games on Monday saw all starting quarterbacks out so we had no interest in flipping a coin. The Hawaii Bowl is different but there is one loss that is a huge impact and that is San Jose St. will be without wide receiver Nick Nash who was a huge part of the offense that accounted for 37 percent of targets and receptions. That is hard to overcome and the Spartans do not have the roster to make up for it. South Florida finished the season 6-6 but did close on a 4-2 run with the offense rolling in five of those six games, averaging 45.8 ppg in those five games taking the game against Navy out. The rushing game will be an integral part of the game plan here against a Spartans defense that finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country which was ranked No. 90 overall. It was a great story for them which lost their head coach and got former Navy head guy Ken Niumatalolo and while his job was amazing in switching the system, that system cannot be implemented here. 10* (223) South Florida Bulls

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Vikings have won seven straight games and are now tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North and they control their own destiny. The seven game winning streak has come against the Jaguars, Colts, Bears, Titans, Cardinals, Falcons and Bears, four coming by just one possession. They are coming off a three-game homestand and now head west which is an auto play against and especially for a team favored and sitting No. 2 in the Luck Ratings while playing a schedule ranked No. 23 and those do not correlate well together. The early lookahead line had Seattle -2 and has flipped five points, mostly because of the Minnesota winning streak but also with the bad loss the Seahawks had last week. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak and Seattle is now in a position where it needs to win out to take the NFC West but also can miss the playoffs altogether with a poor finish. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +130 to -150 allowing between 335 and 370 ypg and after being outgained by 150 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 55-24 (69.6 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.5 ppg. 10* (122) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Arizona snapped a three-game slide with a win over New England to get back to .500 and is still in position to win the NFC West but it cannot slip up here. The Cardinals are a game behind the Rams and Seahawks with two losses to the latter and the only hope to make the playoffs is to win out and get some help on top of it. The road has not been great as they are 2-4 with both wins coming by only one point but now face the weakest opponent on the road schedule. They have played the No. 1 ranked slate and have gone 5-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16. Carolina had a nice run of three straight one possession losses against division leaders before getting blown out by Dallas last week. That could be the final nail with quarterback Bryce Young showing some positive signs but it has been the defense running them into the ground, currently No. 31 in Defensive EPA. The number has moved considerably but it is the right move we are not afraid to lay it. Here, we play against teams with a defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 48-19 (71.6 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.0 ppg. 10* (109) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Div. Game of the Month. Philadelphia has won 10 straight games to take control of the NFC East as it now leads by three games over Washington so it can clinch with a victory. The Eagles are 6-1 on the road but four of those wins have come against teams not going to the playoffs and despite the 2-1 record against projected playoff teams, they were outgained in all three of those. Overall, they have played the No. 25 ranked schedule while sitting No. 3 in the NFL Luck Ratings and the disparity of those two rankings show that they are overrated in the markets. Washington was fortunate to get past New Orleans last week as a missed two-point conversion for the Saints got it the one-point win. Obviously this is must win territory for any division hope but it is also big for the Wild Card as the Commanders are in the No. 7 spot with three teams behind lurking close. This is a good buy low spot getting points at home and are 3-1 ATS this season off a win by six points or less. Here we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -1.0 ppg. 10* (114) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The advanced line in this game was New York favored by 3 and has now done a complete flip and for obvious reasons. The Jets are having a miserable season but there has been no quit despite being 4-10. They are coming off a win at Jacksonville which came after three losses where they could have and should have won each of those. The offense has improved to No. 14 in Offensive EPA and going back to the no quit, there is certainly no quit in Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are 2-0 this season straight up and against the number coming off consecutive road games. The Rams have won three straight games while on a 7-2 run to get to 8-6 overall to put themselves into a tie for first place in the NFC West. They are now in a horrible spot coming off the huge win over Buffalo and then taking out rival San Francisco on the road while now having to travel all the way east with two divisional games on deck to end the season. This game is the perfect trap spot and Los Angeles is overvalued based on the run. Here, we play against road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg. 10* (120) New York Jets

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CFP Saturday Dominator. The Volunteers head north and the line is showing that they are at a huge disadvantage but they are not. Tennessee runs the ball on 61 percent of its plays and that can totally benefit a decent sized underdog and the Volunteers have one of the top running backs in the country. Dylan Sampson has seven 100-yard rushing games in his last eight, the only exception being the game against UTEP where he was not utilized with just 11 carries. He averages 3.6 yards after contact which is incredibly good and is a huge asset against this defense. Ohio St. was exposed against Michigan which has an awful offense but the gameplan was worked to perfection and Tennessee can utilize the same plan and with a better defense on the other side. A lot of people are talking about the weather factor and while it will be cold, it will not be inclement weather which makes a big difference. Tennessee falls into a great underdog betting situation where we play on underdogs of +155 to +300 against the moneyline that have a winning percentage of .800 or better off a road win against a conference rival. This situation is 24-14 (63.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.2 ppg but we still prefer the touchdown spread to be safe. 10* (217) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Star Attraction. The Steelers are coming off a loss at Philadelphia to fall to 10-4 and it was the first loss of the season that was by more than one possession. Pittsburgh remains on the road in another tough spot and are actually catching a bigger number despite being a divisional game. While the Steelers failed to win their first game this season when underdogs after starting 5-0, this is the prime Mike Tomlin spot as an underdog coming off a loss. And he knows this team with his defense that has allowed no more than 19 points over the last eight games in this series. Quarterback Russell Wilson is coming off his worst game over his last four starts but still posted a 94.5 passer rating and now faces a bottom 10 defense in DVOA in deep balls so the absence of wide receiver George Pickens is not as big as it could normally be. Baltimore is coming off a dominant win over the Giants but it was the Giants. The Ravens are 2-2 over their last four games, one of those losses coming against this Steelers team and this is a must win to stay in the division hunt and that is a reason we are going against them here which is due to the line being shaded that way. In this series during the regular season when the line is a field goal or more, the underdog is 23-4-3 ATS which goes back to 2004. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (105) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our CFP Opening Winner. The expanded College Football Playoff is opening at Notre Dame Stadium and it probably cannot be more appropriate for the Irish to host the first playoff game. That being said, this team is overvalued after covering the last eight games. Big money has come in on Notre Dame as it is now at 65 percent and the line has been coming down which is what we like to see. We are still getting a touchdown with Indiana after opening at 8 and this game could be low scoring with some weather and that just favors the underdog. Notre Dame is coming off a late cover against USC in its last game, the only legitimate opponent it has faced with arguments to be made for Louisville and Georgia Tech but now comes in an opponent that coming into the season no one saw this coming. The Hoosiers caught a lot of flack for having an easy schedule which is legit but they have done what they need to do. Coming off the loss against Ohio St. brought in the doubters and they responded with a statement win over Purdue, granted probably the worst Power 4 team, but focus counts. And it begs the question of has Notre Dame had a tougher schedule? No. 64 compared to No. 74 so not really. We love what head coach Curt Cignetti has brought into this program and he is one to back over Marcus Freeman in a spot like this. Here. We play on underdogs of +155 to +300 against the money line allowing 2.75 or less rushing ypc, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. This situation is 32-19 (62.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (211) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. We made a bad call with the Chargers last week as they got boat raced at home against Tampa Bay to make it two straight losses. Los Angeles is currently sitting in the No. 7 seed in the AFC and we now have a buy low spot with this number opening at 3 and has come down under that in most spots despite the majority of the early week money hitting the Denver side. The 40 points allowed against the Buccaneers were the most this season so it was simply an anomaly where things got out of control in a 27-0 second half. The Chargers have struggled against the top teams as they are 0-5 against teams ranked in the top ten but have gone 8-1 against teams ranked below that and that is where Denver falls. The Broncos have won four consecutive games and have now covered five in a row which is going to continue to bring in public money. The last three wins have been on the fortunate side as the Raiders failed late at the goal line, the Browns had their game covered until a pair of Jameis Winston interceptions under two minutes and then the win against the Colts last week was another façade as the Broncos gained just 3.2 yppl, the eighth-worst offensive performance of the season of any team in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss playing a marginal winning team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +4.7 ppg. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime winner. The spot for Chicago was supposed to be last week with its first game after the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus and the Bears came up small in San Francisco. Now the Bears are back on the road but in a divisional game against a team they just say a few weeks ago with the first meeting being a three-point loss in overtime. Quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that meeting and has been solid since interim head coach Thomas Brown has been calling the shots, he has completed 82 of 140 passes for 961 yards with seven touchdowns and a 96.2 passer rating. Is Minnesota really this good? The Vikings have won six straight games and are now just a half game behind Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Six game winning streak has come against the Jaguars, Colts, Bears, Titans, Cardinals and Falcons, four coming by just one possession in the last three, they have actually been behind in the fourth quarter. The defense is the strength with Minnesota being No. 3 in Defensive EPA but this is a tough spot in a divisional matchup for the second time and the first coming only three weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential +-5.4 ppg. 10* (481) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the PITTSBURHGH STEELERS for our NFL Game of the Month. The Eagles have been red hot, winning two weeks ago against the Ravens and sneaking by the Panthers last week to make it nine straight wins and they are currently three games ahead of Washington in the NFC East. Six of the wins have come against non-playoff contenders and are overpriced this week because of the recent run while going through a contentious locker room. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been up and down and despite his scrambling ability, the Eagles are ranked ninth worse in sack rate despite behind a good offensive line and have an awful matchup here. The Steelers have won two straight games following the loss in the weather against Cleveland and retain their two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. The defense leads the way at No. 5 in Defensive EPA but we love the underdog aspect here, especially over a field goal. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65 percent) as an underdog and the quarterback situation is better with Russell Wilson 27-9 ATS (75 percent) as a dog playing with a defense that allows fewer than 20 ppg. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of -0.6 ppg. 10* (469) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Los Angeles is coming off a tough loss against Kansas City in what was another lucky win for the Chiefs which just vaulted the even higher into the top spot into the Luck Rankings. The Chargers are back home and tied with Baltimore and Denver in the Wild Card spot. The new coaching dynamic with Jim Harbaugh has totally turned the defense around as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and catch a sneaky good matchup here. Offensively, Justin Herbert has been great and faces a Tampa Bay defense that is No. 31 in Passing Success Rate allowed. Tampa Bay has won three straight games following a four-game losing streak before their bye week and now face its toughest opponent over this stretch and its longest trip. The Buccaneers have won their games against the Giants No. 27, Panthers No. 30, and Raiders No. 28tin DVOA. Now they face a defense ranked No. 9 in Defensive in DVOA. Here, we play on home teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 163-93 (63.7 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +7.8 ppg. Great bounce back situation in what is a big game for the Chargers. 10* (476) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Afternoon Dominator. We had Arizona last week and the Cardinals came up small, namely Kyler Murray who took them out of the game in the first quarter. We respect him enough for a bounce back in a game they need to win as the Cardinals got bumped to +1200 to win the NFC West despite being just a game and a half back. They fell to 2-4 on the road but remain home where they had won three straight games prior to that. This is a great matchup in a must win spot where we think everything gels. New England came into the season with no expectations but did have a core defense that has gone so far away. The Patriots are now No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have allowed 30 ppg over their last three after allowing 45 points combined in their previous three games against the Jets, Titans and Bears, three teams going nowhere. Quarterback Drake Maye has shown signs but is still ranked bottom third in the metrics with nothing around him. Here, we play on home teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 21-4 (84 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of + 7.8 ppg. 10* 478* Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Houston has not been the team from last season and we think this is a buy low time. The Texans are coming off their bye week following a three-point win over Jacksonville to put an end to a 1-3 run and they are back home following two straight losses here after a 4-0 start in Houston. They have been one of the most underachieving teams this season with C.J. Stroud taking a regression from his rookie season but has a good matchup here against a defense ranked No. 16 in Defensive Passing EPA. Miami remains in the playoff hunt going on a 4-1 run after a fortunate win over the Jets last Sunday. The offense has peaked with the return of Tua Tagovailoa but it is a misnomer. This is the best defense the Dolphins have faced over this stretch as the Texans are ranked second in defensive DVOA and has been great both against the run and pass. The Texans lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate and how to slow Tua down is to put him under pressure. Here, we play against teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 22-5 (81.5 percent)since 2015 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (458) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Panthers took a while to find their stride and after an unsuccessful run with Andy Dalton at quarterback, they have been much better with Bryce Young back after the Dalton injury. Carolina is still ranked last in most of the metrics and is No. 32 in the Sagarin Ratings but a lot of this is due to its miserable midseason form and while the Panthers have lost three straight games, all have been by one possession and against current playoff positioned teams. Young is No. 11 since his return in the PFF passing grade and now faces an awful defense. Dallas had won two straight games prior to their kickoff debacle last week against Cincinnati and the Cowboys are back on the road for the first time in three weeks and underdogs which have the public biting. Cooper Rush is not good and he showed that again against an awful defense, his third straight against bad units, and the Dallas defense is now ranked No. 29 in ypa allowed. Here, we play on favorites after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt going up against an opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 26-1 (96.3 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Both the Rams and 49ers saved their seasons with wins last week to keep their NFC North division hopes alive. San Francisco played its most complete game since a win at Tampa Bay back on November 10 and while that one resulted in just a three-point win, this scoring result was indicative of what took place on the field. Injuries have derailed their season but at 6-7, they are two games behind Seattle with a season split already completed so every game is needed at this point. Despite the losing record, the 49ers are No. 13 in Net EPA and found a replacement at running back with Isaac Guerendo who made his third career start across college and the NFL and put up 128 yards of total offense. Los Angeles is coming of arguably the most entertaining game of the season in a 44-42 win over Buffalo to make it two straight wins while going 6-2 over its last eight games. The Rams are healthy again and will not be an easy out but they have a huge disadvantage on defense. They are No. 29 in Defensive EPA and struggle on both levels, sitting No. 29 against the pass and No. 27 against the run. On offense, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been great over his last four games with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions while averaging 260.3 ypg but definitely has a tough matchup here on the road. San Francisco lost the first matchup by three points despite outgaining the Rams 425-296 so this is a must win in that regard as losing the season series with only three games left will all but end their season. Here, we play on favorites after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games, when playing on a Thursday. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.9 ppg. 10* (452) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Bengals are coming off another tough loss as they fell to the Steelers with turnovers playing a big part in the defeat. The offense remains one of the best in the league as they are No. 7 in Net EPA as the defense has derailed their season but that should not be a big problem tonight. Cincinnati has been the second most unluckiest team in the NFL just ahead of the Jets as seven of its eight losses have been by one possession with six of those against teams in current playoff positions. This has been a favorable spot for the Bengals this season as they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites with those wins coming against the Browns, Giants and Panthers while going 4-0 ATS when coming off a home loss. Dallas has won two straight games following a five-game losing streak and are once again a home underdog after being favored here over the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are officially horrible on both sides of the ball as they are No. 29 in Offensive Net EPA and No. 28 in Defensive Net EPA so while the Bengals get the bad rap for its defense, the Cowboys have been just as bad on that side. At least they could keep up with Dak Prescott but with him out, there has been little hope. Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is not good and the metrics prove is as of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, he is No. 36 in yards per attempt at just 5.4 and he has had two games of 2.0 and 4.6 ypa. Dallas is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (143) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We are going back to the well with the Chiefs. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds and last week was the first instance we backed them and were unable to cover against the Raiders in what was another last second win. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo three weeks ago and barely got by Carolina and Las Vegas the last two weeks and are now on a 0-6 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Chargers knocked off Atlanta last week to make it five wins in their last six games to improve to 8-4 which is good for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. This series has not been in their favor as they have dropped six straight games against the Chiefs with the majority of those being close defeats, five coming by one possession. That has put the majority of the money on Los Angeles which has knocked this line down from its opening of -5.5. The defense has been the strength this season as the Chargers are No. 4 in Defensive EPA but they have still been outgained in three straight games and we are ready for this Chiefs offense to finally explode and we are expecting a big game from Isiah Pacheco who finally got back into the lineup last week after missing nine consecutive games. 10* (142) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Buffalo is still chasing down Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after clinching the AFC East last Sunday with a 35-10 win over a banged up San Francisco team in the snow. The Bills improved to 10-2 on the season including 6-0 at home and they have now won seven straight games but are now in a very difficult spot having now scored 30 points or more in their last six games. Along with Philadelphia, Detroit and Green Bay, Buffalo is one of just four teams ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and come in No 5 in Net EPA. While there have been blowouts along the way, the Bills are No. 6 in the Luck Ratings so there have been good fortunes as well. The Rams are coming off a win at New Orleans despite getting narrowly outgained to improve to 6-6 and they remain right the mix in the NFC West at 6-6. One game behind Seattle. They are back home where they have dropped two straight following a 3-1 start and it will be up to the defense to slow down the Bills offense and this is a significant game to take with a game at San Francisco on deck for Thursday. The Rams have been hit with the injury bug throughout this season but are as healthy as they have been this season. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -0.7 ppg. 10* (138) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The season is on the line for Arizona as it sits one game behind Seattle in the AFC West but a loss here essentially puts it three games back due to losing the season series with the Seahawks and no team out of this division is going to gain a Wild Card spot. They lost in Seattle two weeks ago despite winning the yardage battle 298-285 and then lost in Minnesota last week in the final minutes in another game they won the stats by 154 yards. After a slow start, Arizona has outgained its opponents in five straight games and it returns home where it is 4-2, losing to Detroit and Washington which was way back in September. The Cardinals had won four straight games prior to this while allowing only 10 ppg in three home games over this stretch. We are still unsure how Seattle is 7-5 as it pulled off the win over the Jets in a game it should have been beaten badly as the Seahawks were down 21-7 with the Jets driving for a 28-7 lead but a tipped ball turned into a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown resulting in a 14-point swing and the defense did its job the rest of the way. That put Seattle at 4-1 on the road this season with the only loss coming at Detroit and we feel that is part of the lower than expected number even though it has crept up to 3 in some shops. After outgaining their opponents in their first four games, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last eight with their last two yardage advantages coming by only 13 yards combined. Four of their seven wins have been by one possession and the Seahawks are now ranked No. 7 in the Luck Ratings following last week. 10* (136) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota is coming off another fortunate win as it rallied late in the fourth quarter with the winning touchdown coming with 1:13 remaining. The Vikings were No. 1 in the Luck Ratings two years ago when they went 13-4 and won the NFC North and their current 10-2 record is a bit skewed as they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings this season. They are on a five-game winning streak with four of those victories coming by one possession while seven of the 10 wins are by that amount. This is a great sell high spot with the number continuing to climb. Atlanta had the lead in the NFC South but has lost three straight games and is now tied with Tampa Bay at 6-6 with New Orleans lingering two games back. The Falcons opened the season 3-0 on the road but have dropped their last two games on the highway including a 38-6 loss at Denver in their last travel spot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game of the season as he tossed four interceptions and has regressed considerably since a great start as he has six interceptions and no touchdowns over his last four games and it will not be any easier here but he has been a gamer in his career going 18-9 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a passing defense allowing a comp percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of 0.0 ppg. 10* (121) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Championship Dominator. This line has gone the right way as Clemson opened as the favorite in the early shops but it has now flipped to SMU laying a small number with 82 percent of the early money coming in on the Mustangs. We lost with Clemson last week as it fell to South Carolina but had a chance to win or at least tie the game but a fluke interception in the final minute in the redzone did them in. Clemson did go 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 30 in the Sagarin ratings which did account for all three of their losses but the makeup of this team is why we love them in this spot as this is a homegrown roster as head coach Dabo Swinney does not use the transfer portal and they now have an opportunity to get to the CFP which was not known after that South Carolina loss but after Miami going down against Syracuse. Program and culture are huge factors this time of year. SMU breezed through the ACC schedule with a perfect 8-0 record in its first season, a huge praise to third year head coach Rhett Lashlee but the Mustangs now face a real test. Six of the eight SMU opponents in conference games finished at or below .500 in conference play with the exceptions being Duke, which was a win in overtime, and Louisville, which was their best win on the season and they only outgained the Cardinals by 20 yards. This offense is the real deal but again, they have not faced a defense like this so they will struggle like they have not before. We often refer to the Luck Ratings and SMU was one of the most fortunate teams in the country as they finished No. 18 while Clemson sits at No. 57. 10* (117) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Big 10 Championship Enforcer. Even though Oregon is No. 1 in the country, the Ducks can be considered underrated as no one is talking about them because they just go about their business. They have had three close calls this season, opening with Boise St. and then Big 10 Conference wins over Ohio St. at home and Wisconsin on the road and while that game against the Badgers could be a concern since it was only three weeks ago, we can consider that just one of those games they did not show up with a big game on deck. They got their revenge last week against Washington and while this is a different conference, they will be out for this title game after coming up short last season against the Huskies but this is a difficult matchup however one they can overcome with a lot of that due to quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is making his 62nd start. He does have six interceptions but only one over his last four games and his 73.5 percent completion percentage is the best of his career. Penn St. backed into this game with the Ohio St. upset against Michigan last week but the Nittany Lions do deserve to be here with their only loss coming against that Buckeyes team by a touchdown. Offensively, they are good but not elite and will be facing a defense similar to that of Ohio St. that is deep on all three levels. It is the other side that is the bigger concern as while the Nittany Lions have an elite defense that finished the regular season top seven in all four main statistical categories, they have not faced an elite quarterback like this and no, we cannot include Will Howard into the conversation. James Franklin is 1-14 in his career against top five teams which seals the deal. 10* (120) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our College Football Game of the Year. Louisiana finished 7-1 to win the Sun Belt Conference West Division with the lone loss coming against South Alabama by two points and it was kind of a fluke as they dug a 24-3 halftime hole and scored 19 unanswered second half points but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 remaining that could have sent the game into overtime. Marshall won the East Division with an identical 7-1 record and 9-3 overall and it finished with the best ATS record in the country at 10-1-1 (11-1 in some cases based on lines) with the only non-cover being a five-point win against Louisiana-Monroe as a 10.5-point underdog. The Cajuns locked down the home field for the championship game based on a composite average of selected computer rankings which may not seem like a big advantage based on their 4-2 record at home but it is based on the losses. Loiusiana has a big edge on offense as it is ranked No. 32 in Offensive EPA and it is balanced, ranked No. 37 in Rushing EPA and No. 21 in Passing EPA. The Marshall defense is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA and in conference action, it had three good games but those were against teams that finished a combined 4-20 in Sun Belt games. While the Cajuns own defense is nothing special, they square off against a one dimensional offense that is excellent at running the ball but a limited passing game that is No. 117 in Passing Offense. The line has gone up from opening but we think it has plateaued with no more room to go without the public hammering a 10-1-1 ATS team which they will do once they get win of it but it is too early for the majority of the public to come in. There is also an intangible that cannot be ignored as we are hitting that point of the season where all loyalty is out the door. Sources have confirmed Marshall head coach Charles Huff is leaving Marshall to become the Southern Mississippi head coach and that likely will not be officially announced until after this game, but that leaked info affects this team and its psyche. This is what college football has turned into, and from a player standpoint as well with the transfer portal and it just messes with the player that actually cares. The home team should roll here. 10* (116) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our SEC Championship Top Play. We have a rematch in the SEC Championship with Georgia rolling over Texas in the regular season at Texas so many will point to that in giving the Bulldogs the edge. Not us. That game was decided by turnovers as Georgia had the 4-0 edge and 17 of their 30 points were off turnovers with those three drives totaling just 41 yards so working from a short field certainly was the difference. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their eight games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500 so they have not been tested as much but if they were tested more, they probably would have been just fine. They come in No. 2 in Net EPA and while the offense is the worst of the two units, it is still No. 6. The Texas offensive line is banged up, namely Kelvin Banks who will be playing on Sundays, and that is a big concern against this Georgia defensive front but look what happened last week against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 260 yards on 47 carries (5.5 ypc) which can help the average Longhorns rushing game which was shut down in the first meeting but a long of that was situational. The health of quarterback Quinn Ewers is also a concern with his ankle but the benefit that Texas has that Georgia does not is a legitimate backup in Arch Manning who could actually hurt the defense more with his running ability. Georgia does not have that luxury after Carson Beck who has looked great the last two games but those were against two bad defenses and we are far from sold overall and he was awful against Texas in that first meeting with three interceptions. 10* (114) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Game of the Month. UNLV has won four straight games heading into the championship game and while the win over San Jose St. was a good one, the other three were against teams with 26 combined losses. That was the Rebels only win against a team above .500 and while you can argue Boise St. played a similarly easy schedule, they also beat San Jose St. on the road as well as Washington St. and this UNLV team on the road while losing to Oregon by only three points on the road. This is a recent double-revenge spot for the Rebels but we are not banking on that in this atmosphere. We cannot be concerned with the short number as some will call it a trap with so much on the line and this spread has a lot to do with the regular season meeting where UNLV played a great game overall and held Aston Jeanty to just 128 yards on 33 carries and we expect a bigger game at home. We have two awesome situations in our back pocket as well. First, we play on home teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 68-30 ATS (69.4 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +9.5 ppg. Second, we play against road teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +7.2 ppg. 10* (108) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Army and Tulane were slightly in the playoff talk, longshots of course, but now it is a chance to just bring home the trophy. The Black Knights get to host the AAC Championship thanks to their perfect run in their first season in the conference but they are underdogs here for a reason. Army has been an underdog only twice all season, in its second game at Florida Atlantic by one point and then against Notre Dame two games back, the second resulting in its only loss this season. While that does say Army is a very good team for being favored 10 times but it also shows the caliber of competition it has played and that is proven with its No. 135 ranked schedule as it avoided Tulane, Memphis and Navy within the AAC. Tulane was rolling along with eight straight wins, six by at least two touchdowns, but caught Memphis at the wrong time as it lost by 10 points as a double-digit favorite in what in reality was a meaningless game as the Green Wave had already clinched a spot in the championship game. Before giving up 34 points to the Tigers, they had allowed nine points in their three previous games combined and they come in ranked No. 21 in Defensive EPA to go along with their No. 31 ranking in Offensive EPA. The other two losses came against Kansas St., a controversial defeat, and Oklahoma so all three losses have been against legit competition. Losing the AAC Championship game last season only adds to the motivation. 10* (103) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit continues to roll along as it is now 11-1 following a Thanksgiving win over Chicago and the Lions remain home to face another divisional foe. Detroit is now No. 4 in Offensive EPA and No. 1 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is No. 1 in Net DVOA and the public will be lining up on their side come Thursday night with the short price. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are tied for No. 4 in the Luck Ratings. Green Bay came through last week in a no sweat win over Miami and the challenge gets tougher. The Packers at 9-3 are in third place in the NFC North which shows how strong this division has been and having already lost to the Lions, a win here gets them right back in it. As mentioned, the Packers are one of only four teams in the top ten on each side of EPA and they come in at No. 5 in Net DVOA. Along with the Eagles, they are the one team that can take down Detroit and despite a 10-point loss in the first meeting, they outgained the Lions 411-261 with a pick six being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (101) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Cleveland is coming off a win over Pittsburgh last Thursday in non-optimal conditions so while this might be considered a letdown similar to after the Baltimore win and losing big to the Chargers, there are other factors saying that will not happen. The Browns were outgained by only 50 yards against the Chargers so the final score was misleading due to a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. Cleveland is just 1-4 on the road but two of those losses were by four points while the loss in New Orleans was decided in the fourth quarter when Tayson Hill went off. Denver is now 7-5 following a 10-point win over the Raiders who we had and should have covered but were denied on their last drive. Of the Broncos seven wins, two have come against the Raiders and another against the Jets while the other four were all against the NFC South where head coach Sean Payton resided so that familiarity cannot be discounted. They have outgained only five opponents, four of those being those four NFC South teams. Quarterback Bo Nix is 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season and we saw a similar run earlier this season with Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels also opening 5-0 ATS in his first five games as a favorite and he has since dropped his last two in that role and we do not think this is a coincidence. Trying to figure out good quarterbacks can be difficult early on but when there is history and film, teams adjust. This game opened at 7.5 and has come down despite 92 percent of the money coming in on the Broncos so this is prime reverse line movement. 10* (483) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the best game of Week 13 with two of the hottest teams squaring off and this line is right where it should be but we could see it come down a tick with 87 percent of the money on Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven straight games and have taken a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East but it has come against a pretty cake schedule. Wins over the Commanders and Rams the last two week have been the best wins as they have defeated no other playoff team during this run and now they face a real test and on the road. Overall, Philadelphia has faced a schedule ranked No. 29 in the league. Barkley leads the No. 1 ranked team in Rushing EPA but things will not be easy here against the No. 2 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Baltimore is coming off a win over the Chargers following its loss against Pittsburgh and over its recent 8-2 stretch, the only two losses have been within the division. The Ravens are 3-0 against the NFC to move Lamar Jackson to a remarkable 23-1 against the NFC in his career and while some of that can be considered random, it is still impressive. Baltimore brings in the No. 1 overall Offensive EPA as they are No. 1 in passing behind Jackson and No. 2 behind Derrick Henry. He does not have a good matchup but the balance is key here and the home field is a huge advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in December games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.9 ppg. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen in early November following a loss to Carolina and the Saints responded with a pair of wins over Atlanta and Cleveland. It was a great jump start following a seven-game losing streak but it has been stalled with their bye week and that can be a momentum killer. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South as they are just two games behind Atlanta after having split the season series while still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card. We still think this is a team going nowhere as the offense was carried by Taysom Hill against the Browns while the defense was still bad, allowing 443 yards. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 428.9 ypg in their other nine games which would be by far the worst in the league. The Rams are coming off a loss against Philadelphia at home last Sunday night in a game they trailed by just six points late in the third quarter but the Eagles ran off 17 consecutive points culminating by a 72-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles had won four of five games prior to that to get back in the division and at 5-6, it is just one game back of Seattle and Arizona and is 2-1 in the division. These are the games they cannot give away though and they only have one bad loss which was at Chicago. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Pittsburgh is coming off that snow globe loss in Cleveland to fall to 8-3 and still have a half-game lead in the AFC North with four more divisional games still to play. The Steelers defense has led the way as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and they look to get the offense going once again after two poor games although one of those was in awful conditions. They put up 28, 26, 37 and 32 points in their previous four games. This is the game it needs as after this and Cleveland again next week, they face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up as underdogs. Cincinnati has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as they have been unable to overcome an 0-3 start and now sit at 4-7 and while their season is on the line, this is again not a good matchup. The Bengals are just No. 29 in defensive EPA and that has been the issue and basically negated the season Joe Burrow is having as he is narrowly behind Lamar Jackson in QBR. The defense did have a pair of good games in mid-October but those were against Cleveland who had Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Giants. Cincinnati is 0-5 against teams ranked in the Sagarin top ten. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.6 ppg. 10* (465) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is now 7-5 on the season following a loss to Tennessee at home and while many will be backing the Texans expecting a bounce back against a bad team, we are not sure how good Houston is. The defense has been stout but the offensive has regressed to No. 21 in Net EPA. The Texans have dropped four of their last six games and this is not a big surprise as they went from last place two seasons ago to first place last season and are now doing the typical regression that teams go through when going from last to first. They are 3-3 on the road and have outscored opponents by only 1.5 ppg and are now significant road favorites in a divisional game against a team looking to wreck their season. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following a 52-6 thrashing at Detroit, the second straight game it has been held to single digits. The Jaguars will get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing those last two games so at least the offense will have a pulse once again. He had that one bad game against the Eagles but prior to that, he had five straight games with a passer rating of 89 or higher including three of 104.7, 121.5 and 119.5. The defense has been the concern but playing at home against a regressing offense is not a bad thing. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.1 ppg. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. No one wants any part of the Jets right now as they have lost two straight games following a win against Houston which snapped a five-game losing streak. They are coming off their bye week at the right time and while it has obviously been a lost season for New York, this is a team that will continue to fight following the firing of their GM. The offense has not come close to living up to expectations and that is all on Aaron Rodgers but they are still a respectable No. 17 in Offensive EPA while on the other side they are No. 18 in Defensive EPA, not horrible rankings for a team that is 3-8. New York does not turn the ball over but the defense only has eight takeaways and that has been the problem. The Jets have been unfortunate as they are No. 31 in the Luck Ratings. Seattle is coming off a pair of upset wins as it defeated San Francisco on the road and Arizona at home last week which put a temporary halt on a 1-5 run. The Seahawks are back over .500 and tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Rams just a game back so it is wide open which makes this game a big one. This is a big reason why 88 percent of the money is on the Seahawks yet the line has moved the other way. Seattle is average on both sides like New York and its Net EPA ranking of No. 17 is just one spot ahead of the Jets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (474) New York Jets

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Late Powerhouse. For the first time in 13 years, this rivalry is back and as meaningful as ever. This is a huge game for Texas A&M as it still has a shot at the CFP even with three losses because it is a pretty simple scenario where if the Aggies win here, they go to the SEC Championship and if they win that, they mess up the whole playoff system. The Aggies are coming off a brutal triple overtime loss at Auburn and while that could normally affect a team, it will not in this spot. Head coach Mike Elko has thrived in these spots as he is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog or less than a field goal favorite. Obviously if Texas wins, it will be in the SEC Championship and it is already a lock for the CFP Playoffs so there is not as much desperation. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their seven games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500. The lone exception was a blowout loss against Georgia. This is going to be one of the best environments we will see this weekend and a night game only exemplifies that. 10* (414) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our ACC Game of the Month. This is obviously a huge game for Miami as a win gets it to the ACC Championship against SMU which keeps their playoff hopes alive but a loss here puts a trip to the CFP in serious jeopardy. Sure they should win this game they do not deserve to be favored like this as they are overpriced because of what is on the line. Miami had a three-game stretch where it won all three by one possession and has gone 3-1 since then with the three wins being blowouts but one came against Florida St., another against an overrated Duke team and the third against Wake Forest which is not going to a bowl game. The Syracuse defense will be tested against the No. 1 ranked Offensive EPA in the country. Syracuse is having a great season as it is 8-3 following a seven-point win over Connecticut with a possible peek ahead to this game justifying the narrow win margin. Their own offense can give Miami some trouble as the Hurricanes have been vulnerable in some spots on defense. This is a double-digit live dog in our opinion as two of their losses should have gone the other way while the Pittsburgh loss was only due to turnovers. 10* (366) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great play on the number as the wrong team is favored in this matchup based on our power ratings where both sets have Rutgers favored by five points. The reason is that this is a must win for Michigan St. as it has to win to become bowl eligible as it sits at 5-6. The Spartans are coming off a must win over Purdue which should not have been as hard as it was as they defeated the Boilermakers by only a touchdown. This came after a 1-6 run as the offense has been absolutely horrible, scoring only 24 points against Purdue while scoring 19 points or less in those six previous losses. The one win over Iowa saw the offense put up 32 points but had to settle for six field goals. Rutgers became bowl eligible two games back with a win over Maryland and it is coming off a brutal loss against Illinois last week, allowing a 40-yard game winning touchdown pass with just six seconds left. We do not think that is going to affect the Scarlet Knights here though as they will be motivated to not end the regular season on a 0-2 run. Their not so great defense will not be overly tested here. 10* (385) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Star Attraction. If the season ended today, Notre Dame is the projected 7 seed and would host SMU so a win here and they will be guaranteed a home playoff game. A win does not mean a cover as they come in favored by over the key touchdown number with a lot of that based on not just the record but the fact they have covered seven straight games. The level of competition has been below average with the Irish being favored by double digits in their last six games with the single digit cover coming by just a half point over Louisville. USC became bowl eligible with wins in its last two games over Nebraska and UCLA. All five of their losses have been by one possession including a three-point loss against Penn St. in their only home loss. They are ranked No. 21 in Net EPA against the schedule ranked No. 16 in the country so they have played a lot better than their record shows and the change at quarterback has made a huge difference. They keep this one close with a chance to play spoiler against a hated rival that has owned them of late with Notre Dame winning five of the last six meetings in this series. 10* (438) USC Trojans

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. The scenario is pretty simple for Coastal Carolina. Win and they are bowl eligible. This is the Chanticleers third and final shot at bowl eligibility as they lost the two previous chances and have now lost five of their last six games. One of those does include a bad loss against Troy but the other four came against Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison and Louisiana, all teams with at least seven wins overall. They own the better Offensive and Defensive EPA in this matchup and yet come in as the underdog despite a respectable 2-3 road record. Georgia St. came into the season in rebuilding mode under first year head coach Dell McGee and were picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference East Division and it will do just that if it loses here. To their credit, they are coming off a win at Texas St. by eight points as a 23.5-point underdog and the Panthers could still be celebrating that win. That win could have something to do with this number even though it should not as Georgia St. has been a favorite three other times in conference games and lost all three outright and should make it a fourth here. 10* (345) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Vanderbilt became bowl eligible earlier this month with a win over Auburn but it has lost two straight games since then with those being pretty meaningless. Now the Commodores come into their biggest rivalry game playing with no pressure which means they will be playing loose and would want nothing more than to take out Tennessee and ruin its CFP chances. Vanderbilt and Northern Illinois are the only teams ranked outside the top 50 that have wins over a top 10 team. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been outstanding as a double-digit underdog as he is a perfect 8-0 ATS, winning five of those outright. All of the pressure is on the Volunteers and that makes for an uneasy road game. Prior to their 56-0 bye week win over UTEP last week, they failed to cover their previous three games and five of their past six. Tennessee has played a lot of tight conference games and there is no reason to think it will not be the same here. They have struggled with their offense on the road in the SEC, averaging just 18.7 ppg and overall, they have the No. 29 Offensive EPA compared to Vanderbilt being ranked No. 26 in Offensive EPA. 10* (362) Vanderbilt Commodores