Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 221 | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1 Milwaukee has imposed their offensive will on the Celtics in back to back games in this series, scoring 123 points in both tilts (wins), and now Im betting nothing changes tonight as they hit or eclipse that number, again with Boston having no choice but to open up with their own capable offence and also have a substantial output performance. The Bucks are 6-0 L/6 OVER on the road eclipsing the Total by more than 18 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 244.2 ppg.
MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER in road games versus top tier offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.3 ppg. Over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 road games.Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games following a straight up win.Over is 24-8 in Bucks last 32 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 26-9 in Bucks last 35 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 11-4 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up loss.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings here in Boston. Play OVER |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
The Celtics have to come out of their defensive minded shell and compete with the Bucks, who just refuse to slow down. It's not like the Celtics don't have the fire power or determination to compete, and tonight I expect some adjustments that make them more aggressive offensively. Look for Kyrie Irving to come out of a 2 game shooting funk here and really put forward a top tier effort. BOSTON is 12-2 ATS in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 19-79 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-06-19 | Giants v. Reds -134 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Giants LH Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 4.08 ERA) vs. Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 3.48) DeSclafani is 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA over his last three starts, including back-to-back outings in which he has not allowed a run and deserves our support here as chalk. Giants are 19-40 in their last 59 overall.Giants are 11-24 in their last 35 games vs. a right-handed starter.Giants are 17-40 in their last 57 games on grass.Giants are 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Giants are 5-17 in their last 22 vs. National League CentralGiants are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Cincinnati. SAN FRANCISCO is 19-51 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a terrible OBP (.300 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or better ) -NL, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities 50-126 L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the ML |
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05-05-19 | Cardinals +130 v. Cubs | 5-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Cubs - J. Quintana-L vs Cardinals - A. Wainwright-R Cub starter Wainwright is 15-10 with a 4.01 ERA in 45 career appearances (36 starts). This will be his 21st career start at Wrigley Field, where he has a top tier record garnering a 11-3 record along with a 3.78 ERA.The Cardinals are 12-0 on the ML since 2008 with Wainwright on the hill when he won his last start and they are facing a NL team like the Cubs that has won at least 4 straight. In his last 4 starts under these premiers he averaged 7 + innings of work and allowed a total of just one run.WAINWRIGHT is 30-19 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. (Team's Record) I know the Cards have lost three straight, but this is strong situation for them, as they have shown resiliency of late when on a 3 game losing streak cashing 23- of the 32 times . ST LOUIS is 11-4 against the money line vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game this season. WAINWRIGHT is 16-5 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 22-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the ML |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210.5 | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played they went into extended OT, and now, so many in the public are expecting a muted offensive effort here today because of fatigue factor. But now with all the value sucked out of the total in downward fashion, Im now betting the OVER is a value wager and a game that should see both teams eclipse the 105+ plateau based on my own projections. Note:DENVER is 33-9 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 44-10 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 245.3 ppg scored. The Nuggets are 6-0 OVER (18.83 ppg) since Apr 07, 2019 as a road dog with a combined score of 232.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 10-1 OVER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Im betting the Raptors are in trouble without the injured Siakam in the lineup here today in Philadelphia, especially in transition where he is one of the best in the league. It must be noted that Toronto has decreased its FG% conversion rare by 4.7% margin with Siakam not playing . When Siakam is on the bench during the these playoffs, the Raps are recording an Offensive Rating of 94.2 and an eFG% of 42.9%; they’ve been at 109.7 and 55.2% with him on the floor. The Raptors bench is weak, and volatile and with the way Lowry continues to struggle, and the Dinos ultra dependence Kawhi Leonard for offence, things just don't look good for them despite of being desperate for a win. During the L/5 play of seasons,sides that were defeated in their previous game by 10 ppg or more and then are underdogs in their next playoff tilt have really let their betting backers down going 45-76-1 for a go against 61% conversion rate on the spread . NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 7-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 26 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0 Golden State are still the odds on favs to win the NBA championship, and rightly so. I know Houston is one of the few teams that matchup well against the Warriors, but the Dubs are still the superior side, and are a dangerous road dog, making them my choice here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. Lots of value at this line. Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season which was the case in the game 2 loss. Play on Golden State to cover |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
These teams have a history of playing alot of half court games that have gone under the total. However, I noticed an interesting trend of faster paced basketball starting unfold in game 2 in Oakland as the combined score clicked in at 224 points. The Rockets for the most part were expected to wanted these games to be slower paced, while the Warriors want to run. Now here in Houston Im expecting the Rockets to be more aggressive and to push the action, and for the Warriors to have no problems reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that Im betting eclipses the total. Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific. GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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05-04-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -124 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
THOMAS PANNONE (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R) LYNN the Rangers starter is 36-13 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)Lynn has won three of his last four starts and gets my support here today vs the Jays. Blue Jays are 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays defeated the Texas Rangers yesterday by a 1-0 count, but the the Rangers have proven resilient in this situation recently cashing at a 12-0 ML clip as a home 140+ favorite when they were shutout yesterday, winning by an average of 7.33 runs per game . MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - struggling offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games are 26-61 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML |
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05-04-19 | A's -102 v. Pirates | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
CHRIS BASSITT (R) vs. TREVOR WILLIAMS (R) As starter Bassitt has been brilliant in two starts since coming off the injured list, The right-hander has allowed just one run over his first two starts with an impressive 16-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. The righty owns a 2.87 ERA in three previous interleague trips to the hill and gets my support here today. OAKLAND is 46-18 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons/ Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games on grass.Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a loss.Pirates are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. Note: American League teams have won +126 + units in interleague play dating back 14 seasons. MLB team (OAKLAND) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season are 36-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oakland As to win |
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05-04-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -126 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (2-0, 4.78 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02) Darvish is coming off his best start of the season, one run allowed on two hits over six solid frames against the D-backs on Saturday. After a slow start Im betting he continues to round into form and gets my support here today vs the visiting Cards. Note: His pitching opponent Wacha is 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA in 18 outings (16 starts) against the Cubs, including a 1-4 record and a 5.98 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) at Wrigley Field. Cardinals are 3-8 in Wachas last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Cardinals are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings in Chicago MLB eam (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) are 29-59 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 After a top tier performance in game 1 the Nuggets then looked fatigued in game 2 of this series vs the Blazers. Do I think 2 days rest, is enough for the the young men from Denver to get back the form they had against the Spurs and then in the first tilt of this series? Yes, I do and suggest we take the points. Note: Denver really struggled from beyond the arc in game 2 , converting on just 6 of 29 shots for a 20.7% conversion rate. It not all bad however, from a ATS perspective as teams over the L/14 seasons, who hit 21% or less of their down town attempts, were positive money earners cashing at 101-77-4 ATS clip in their follow up game. PORTLAND is 6-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215 | 137-140 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 Denvers success has been predicated on their ability to play top tier defence, as is evident by their 6th overall ppg D, and their 20th ranked offensive output, which includes, a 27th ranked pace. Here on the road Im betting on a very conservative attack set of schemes from Denver, and a physical type approach that will slow down the run and gun Blazers which Im betting results in a much lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect. DENVER is 15-5 UNDER in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season which was the case in game 2 of this series ( 187 total point output in a 97-90 loss) NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-03-19 | Stars v. Blues -145 | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Western Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2 The Blues won the first and third games of this series, while the Stars took the second and fourth, so it's up to St. Louis to respond after their first road loss of the playoffs and Im betting they come out here like their hairs on fire and get the job done. Im a big believer in the Blues, and their grit, and I believe it will be the difference maker in this series. Note:ST LOUIS is 36-19 ATS second half of the season this season. Stars are 4-12 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Play on the Blues |
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05-03-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 The teams split games in Boston during the regular season, with the Celtics winning 117-113 in November and the Bucks prevailing 120-107 in December. But since the beginning of this season the Bucks have morphed into a power house in this league and must be respected here as road underdogs. The Bucks started this series very slowly, but boy did they ever pick things up last time out with a dominating 123-102 victory, and Im betting they continue to surge here on the road where they have covered their L/4 as visitors overall. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season and are fade material here. I just cant get over the fact of how the Celtics struggled for long periods of time this season, and how they have been bad bets at home of late, failing to cover 8 of their L/10 at home and 10 of their L/14 as home chalk. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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05-03-19 | A's +104 v. Pirates | 14-1 | Win | 104 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Athletics LH Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.35 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Joe Musgrove (1-2, 1.54) After looking like the A's best pitcher through his first four starts, Anderson has not completed five innings in his past two outings. He has pitched well at PNC Park, though: 1-0 with a 1.38 in two career starts and Im betting on him bouncing back here today. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Musgrove is winless in his last four outings despite recording a quality start in each tilt. He is just not getting support from his team, and Im also betting nothing changes here today.MUSGROVE is 1-8 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record).MUSGROVE is 4-14 against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 overall.Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games on grass.Pirates are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.Pirates are 4-1 in Musgroves last 5 home starts.Pirates are 1-4 in Musgroves last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.Pirates are 2-11 in Musgroves last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Pirates are 0-4 in Musgroves last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Athletics are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL) are 35-11 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (OAKLAND) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oakland to win on the ML |
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05-03-19 | Mariners +129 v. Indians | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Mariners - Y. Kikuchi-L vs Indians - S. Bieber-R Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle after a fast start to their campaign ,have struggled of late , but tonight Im betting this matchup vs Cleveland is favorable for them. Note: SEATTLE is 13-3 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Mariners are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. SEATTLE is 8-1 against the money line in road games in night games this season. SEATTLE is 29-13 against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 22-9 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. MLB team (SEATTLE) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the ML |
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05-03-19 | Twins v. Yankees -145 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
James Paxton struck out eight and scattered five hits over 5 2/3 solid innings against the Giants for the win in his last outing. He walked two batters in the 106-pitch effort and continues to be in top form and deserving of my backing here tonight. Meanwhile, Gibson the Twins starter, despite of pitching better of late, after a slow start, does not matchup well against the Yankees current batting order. Note :Twins are 0-6 in Gibsons last 6 starts vs. Yankees. Twins are 2-5 in Gibsons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Twins are 1-4 in Gibsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. MINNESOTA is 19-43 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. NY YANKEES are 35-13 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 Friday games.Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 games on grass.Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Yankees are 41-16 in their last 57 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Yankees are 57-23 in their last 80 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 64-28 in their last 92 games following a loss.Yankees are 59-26 in their last 85 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Yankees are 55-26 in their last 81 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 35-17 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.Yankees are 4-1 in Paxtons last 5 starts.Yankees are 4-1 in Paxtons last 5 starts on grass. Twins are 19-56 in the last 75 meetings.Twins are 13-44 in the last 57 meetings in New York. Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML |
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05-02-19 | Blue Jays v. Angels -150 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. TYLER SKAGGS (L) Skaggs returned from the injured list to throw five scoreless innings last Friday at Kansas City. Skaggs allowed just three hits and matches up well according to my estimates vs this Toronto lineup. Meanwhile, Blue Jays starter Sanchez despite of a good record, has completed six innings only twice during that span and continues to pile up a high pitch count early in starts, and is my opinion in a downward regression slot. This is at the outer limits of the amount of lumber I like to lay, but its a viable enough opportunity to cash a ticket that the outlay outweighs the risk. Blue Jays are 16-39 in their last 55 games vs. a left-handed starter.Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Blue Jays are 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 Thursday games.Blue Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.Angels are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Angels are 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Angels are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Blue Jays are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.Blue Jays are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings LA ANGELS are 40-17 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (LA ANGELS) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings are 66-24 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Angles to win on the ML |
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05-02-19 | Raptors +1 v. 76ers | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 The 76ers and the Raptors spilt the first two games of this series, in Toronto , but I feel the Raptors are better and deeper team, and have an edge here tonight in Philadelphia. Im not the only one who feels like this as is evident by the market shift and overall smart money that has steamed in on this since the line was posted. TORONTO is 32-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TORONTO is 33-17 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. In the last 14 seasons teams that cashed an underdog in their last game, like the Sixers, are long term bad bets as is evident by going 176-208-8 ATS including 80-102-2 ATS when those same sides play at hosts in their next tilt. The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS after a SU win as an underdog, failing to cover by 5.9 points per game and this season after a SU win , the 76ers are a bankroll depleting 22-33 ATS for their backers for a go against 60% conversion rate for opposing bettors. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Raptors are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Atlantic. 76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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05-02-19 | Rockies v. Brewers -115 | 11-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rockies RH Jon Gray (2-3, 3.65 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Freddy Peralta (1-0, 7.13) Gray gave up five runs, eight hits (two home runs) and three walks in 4 2/3 innings of un inspiring work in Colorado's 9-5 victory at Atlanta on Saturday. His mechanics just did not look right, and according to my cross reference pitching vs batting order power rankings suggest he does not matchup well vs this current Brewers lineup. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Peralta made a rehab start Saturday with Double-A Biloxi, striking out seven over 4 2/3 innings and 75 pitches and a key 52 throws for strikes and looked strong and worth my support here today. Peralta allowed one hit and two walks with a career-high 13 strikeouts in 5 2/3 shutout innings of his major league debut - a 7-3 victory at Colorado back in May of 2018. Rockies are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.Rockies are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings. Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Brewers are 57-23 in their last 80 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Brewers are 20-9 in their last 29 games following a loss.Brewers are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.Brewers are 54-25 in their last 79 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Brewers are 37-18 in their last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Brewers are 5-2 in Peraltas last 7 home starts. Play on Milwaukee Brewers on the ML |
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05-01-19 | Blues v. Stars UNDER 5 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Western Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - STL Leads 2-1 This series between St.Louis and Dallas is turning into a real hardcore battle. Both these teams successes and failures this season, have been predicated on play top tier defensive hockey and here in this crucial game 4 tilt, nothing will change. The Blues ranked 6th in gpg allowed this season, and 15th on offence. Meanwhile, Dallas , ranked 2nd in gpg defence, and 29th in offence. DALLAS is 16-5 UNDER after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game this season and is 16-4 UNDER after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored this season. The DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER in home games against excellent power play teams - scoring on 19% or more of their chances in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 4.1 gpg. DALLAS is 20-9 UNDER in home games against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 4 gpg scored. Under is 11-5-2 in Blues last 18 games as an underdog. Under is 17-8-3 in Blues last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 44-21-4 in Blues last 69 games as a road underdog. Play UNDER |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 217 | 97-90 | Win | 103 | 35 h 6 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0 The Nuggets key to success this season, and what has gotten them this far is their defence. The Nuggets offensive output is ranked 20th in the league the defence ranked 6th in ppg allowed and they own the 27th ranked pace. I know Portland can light things up in a hurry, but Denver is built to slow teams like this down, and here in the thin air in the Mile High City are better suited for physical action which can be exhausting, and also directly effect the total combined score out come to the low side. Under is 13-4 in Nuggets last 17 home games.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 18-7 in Nuggets last 25 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Play UNDER |
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05-01-19 | Blazers +3.5 v. Nuggets | 97-90 | Win | 102 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0 Denver after a long series against San Antonio kept their momentum alive in game 1 of this series vs Portland with a win. However, this Nuggets team must be tired and their fatigue could easily be a factor tonight against a motivated opponent that needs a win here to gain a split in this series. These teams are just to evenly matched from alot of perspectives that make me feel confident about taking points here. DENVER is 12-27 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.Trail Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Trail Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.Trail Blazers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. Nuggets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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05-01-19 | Indians v. Marlins +135 | 2-4 | Win | 135 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Indians RH Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.81 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Caleb Smith (2-0, 2.17) In his last three trips to the hill, Smith has allowed just 2 runs in 18 innings along with 22 strikeouts. The Marlins have won all three of those starts. The southpaw also is a difficult hurler to make solid contact off of. His hard contact rate, per Statcast, is 21.5 percent, in the top 6 percent in the Majors. Lots of value here backing him against Kluber and company tonight. Note: KLUBER is 17-26 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 since 1997. (Team's Record) CLEVELAND is 4-11 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 3 seasons. Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 7-17 in their last 24 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Marlins are 4-0 in Smiths last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Marlins are 4-0 in Smiths last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Marlins are 7-1 in Smiths last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.Marlins are 4-1 in Smiths last 5 home starts.Marlins are 7-2 in Smiths last 9 starts. MLB team (MIAMI) - NL team with a poor SLG (.400 or less ) against a poor AL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.600 to 1.700), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 29-9 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are just 12-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML |
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05-01-19 | Islanders +106 v. Hurricanes | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CAR Leads 2-0 The Islanders despite of being what I thought was the superior team in the first two games of this series find themselves down 2-0 and desperate need of a victory. Timely scoring a top tier goaltending was the difference maker but there is good recent precedent for the underdog Isles here tonight as they are 16-1 ATS after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games this season and are 11-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Im betting on them coming out here like their play off lives depend on getting a win and to upset a banged up injury riddled Carolina side here on the road. Play on the NY Islanders to cover |
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05-01-19 | Pirates -137 v. Rangers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. SHELBY MILLER (R Miller is 1-0 with a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts after allowing four runs in five innings against the Mariners on Friday. He is 2-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 10 career starts against the Pirates and is fade material here this afternoon. TAILLON the Pirates starter is 13-5 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) TAILLON is also 10-2 against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) PITTSBURGH is 18-5 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.HURDLE is 14-3 against the money line in road games against AL West opponents as the manager of PITTSBURGH. Play on Pittsburgh to win on the ML |
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | 109-115 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0 The Rockets are one of the few teams in the NBA that matchup well against the Warriors.The Dubs squeezed past Houston in game 1 , but game 2 Im betting will see the Rockets be in a position to pull off an upset and more importantly cover the number for the 2nd straight time. Note: Golden State has failed to cover 11 of their L/18 ATS this season in that next home game, after a win failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game Golden St is 0-8 ATS L/8 at home off a tilt in which Steph Curry was not their high scorer,(which was the case in game 1) falling to over by an average of 19.38 ppg. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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04-30-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Western Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 It took them more than four periods into the series but the Avalanche started clicking consistently while controlling huge chunks of play as the second period wore on in Game 2. As soon as the Avalanche got on the scoreboard with Gabriel Landeskog's goal to make it 1-1 in the second period in Game 2, they started to out skate the Sharks the ice and the line of Nathan MacKinnon, Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen dominated for long stretches as San Joses vulnerable defense looked like they were panic mode. It was the kind of push the Calgary Flames weren't able to handle in the first round, five-game loss to the Avalanche and the Sharks Im betting wont be able to handle it here tonight. Sharks are 2-5 in their last 7 road games. Sharks are 2-5 in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Home team is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings. Favorite is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings. Play on the Colorado Avs to win on the ML |
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04-30-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -130 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R) The Yankees have won 11 of 13 since sweeping a two-game series from Boston on April 16-17 and have won four straight series. Arizona has won 10 of 14. However, I like the home team here today behind their starter Greinke who has made five straight quality starts, winning four, and has 13 scoreless innings in his last two games. GREINKE is 15-4 against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ARIZONA is 11-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. NY YANKEES are 1-11 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY YANKEES) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are just 8-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to win on the ML MLB team (NY YANKEES) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are just 11-36 for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0 The Celtics came in and upset the Bucks in game 1 of this series. It was in some ways surprising . In the past in the play offs the the Celtics were just 12-17 ATS as dog in their L/30 games as compared to being 19-3 ATS as a post season favorite. Both were rested for game 1 and both look similar to each other in some ways, but Im betting the difference maker in game 2 will be the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo. MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite this season and is 18-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 219 | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0 On Sunday, the Celtics opened the series by cruising to a 112-90 victory, mostly because of how they defended Antetokounmpo Im betting they wont be able to keep the Greek Freak down in two games in a row, in a game Im betting will be played faster and the Bucks chosen pace. The Bucks own the no.1 offence and the 2nd fast pace in the league and they will be ready to run and gun tonight. The Celtics will be forced into responding with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blow off the court. This will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 30-9 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-30-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R Washington right-hander Anibal Sanchez (0-3, 6.00 ERA), has struggled this season, and it must be noted that current St. Louis hitters are 21-for-72 (.292) with four homers against Sanchez and he could find himself struggling again today.The Cardinals have won nine of 11 and exploded Monday for six runs in the top of the fifth against Corbin and won 6-3 and could get us over the total here all by themselves or at least get us close enough for Washington to do enough offensive damage of their own to help us over the proverbial fence here. ST LOUIS in their L/33 games against NL East opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 10 rpg scored. Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games.Over is 11-3-1 in Cardinals last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 14-4 in Cardinals last 18 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-1-1 in Wainwrights last 6 Tuesday starts.Over is 12-3-2 in Wainwrights last 17 starts vs. National League East.Over is 6-2-1 in Wainwrights last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 3-1-3 in Wainwrights last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 14-5-1 in Wainwrights last 20 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 13-5-2 in Wainwrights last 20 road starts. Over is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 overall.Over is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 on grass.Over is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 Tuesday games.Over is 12-3-1 in Nationals last 16 games following a loss.Over is 18-6 in Nationals last 24 during game 2 of a series.Over is 19-7-1 in Nationals last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 20-8-1 in Nationals last 29 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 35-15-2 in Nationals last 52 home games.Over is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 vs. National League Central. Over is 5-1 in Wainwrights last 6 road starts vs. Nationals.Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.Over is 3-0-1 in Wainwrights last 4 starts vs. Nationals.Over is 15-6-5 in the last 26 meetings. MLB team (ST LOUIS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or worse ) (NL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 58-30 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.Play OVER |
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04-29-19 | Orioles v. White Sox -135 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Orioles LH John Means (3-2, 1.74 ERA) vs. White Sox LH Manny Banuelos (1-0, 2.51) Banuelos gets a second starting opportunity after performing very well in spot duty in Baltimore, working four scoreless innings. He threw 71 pitches in that one. Prior, he had allowed two runs over 9 1/3 innings in three long relief appearances and he gets my support here in this spot. Orioles are 10-43 in their last 53 during game 1 of a series.Orioles are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter like Banuelos. White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.BALTIMORE is 2-17 against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 15-53 against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. MLB team (BALTIMORE) - with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 22-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago White Sox to win on the ML |
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04-29-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 220 | 94-89 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - TOR Leads 1-0 The first game of this series between the Raptors and their guests the 76ers was played at a very fast pace, but as it became obvious in the 4th quarter that the Sixers had no chance of winning the game slowed down to a crawl and both teams combined for just 30 points in the final end. In game one of this series the Raptors were in full flight with fast breaks the norm, while Philadelphia seems tentative and sat back for the most part . This time around I expect the Sixers to come out here flying , and for the Raptors to easily reciprocate in a game I have pegged to bounce over the total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 38-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate! Play OVER |
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04-28-19 | Yankees -117 v. Giants | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Yankees RH Domingo German (4-1, 1.75 ERA) vs. Giants RH Dereck Rodriguez (3-2, 3.54) Yankees right-hander Domingo German (4-1, 1.75 ERA) and Giants righty Dereck Rodriguez (3-2, 3.54) will warm up for the series finale.The Yankees are 8-4 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 76-60 while hitting 25 home runs and have the edge again and look like . viable bets to complete a 3 game sweep of the Giants despite of the their injury woes. NY YANKEES are 26-9 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 51-25 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML |
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04-28-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 My own projections and matchup stats suggest the Rockets matchup better than most teams in the west vs the defending NBA champion Dubs. Including the regular season and playoffs meetings, the Rockets are 8-6 SU against the Warriors over the last couple of seasons. After coming close to knocking off the champs in last year's Conference Finals, the Rockets will get their shot at redemption and will be primed to perform. HOUSTON is 15-6 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Play on Houston Rockets to cover |
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04-28-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CAR Leads 1-0 The first game in this series featured top tier defensive work from both teams in top quality goaltending as the Canes won 1-0 in OT, and nothing will change here in game 2. Under is 5-1-3 in Hurricanes last 9 Conference Semifinals games. These teams have gone under in 4 of their L/5 meetings. Play UNDER |
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04-28-19 | Tigers -121 v. White Sox | 1-4 | Loss | -121 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
MATT BOYD (L) vs. REYNALDO LOPEZ (R Boyd (2-1, 3.16 ERA) won his latest start, holding the Boston Red Sox to three runs on three hits in seven innings on Tuesday and matches up well vs the Red Sox lineup. He credits attacking and finding the strike zone early as keys to his success and gets my support here. DETROIT is 11-6 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 8-26 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. MLB team (DETROIT) - with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games are 42-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (DETROIT) - terrible offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or less) (AL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season are 35-13 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the ML |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 The last time these teams played back in February the Bucks came out of that game with a 98-97 win, here in Milwaukee. This Sunday afternoon Im expecting another hard fought game, in a tilt between combatants that know each other very well. The Bucks have won 5 of the L/7 here straight up but the Celtics have cashed ATS in 5 of those games and Im recommending we take the points again in this spot. Im betting on the Celtics to implement small ball game plan here with Horford vs Lopez at the center of the attention which will be key to aggravating the Bucks flow. Also with Malcolm Brogdon out for Milwaukee there is definitely room here and value with getting points with the Celtics. MILWAUKEE is 11-24 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 19-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 15-7 ATS against Central division opponents this season. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-28-19 | Rays +139 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 139 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Rays RH Tyler Glasnow (4-0, 1.53 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (0-4, 7.43) Glasnow's breakout has been a big reason why the Rays are off to one of the best starts in baseball. He has 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, BoSox starter Chris Sale despite of looking decent in his last start, delivering 5 innings of work still does not have a win this season, as he owns a 0-4 record along with a bloated 7.43 ERA. The star hurler just does not look himself yet and until he turns the corner is fade material. SALE is 0-5 ( against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) BOSTON is 2-8 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.BOSTON is 3-9 against the money line in day games this season. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season are 62-32 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the TB Rays to win on the ML |
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04-28-19 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Glasnow's breakout has been a big reason why the Rays are off to one of the best starts in baseball. He has 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings of work and is extremely reliable. Meanwhile, Sale the BoSoxs southpaw starter, showed some progress last time out in what was arguably his best start of the year, as he struck out 10 and allowed two runs over five innings against the Tigers. Sale's goal against Tampa Bay will be to pitch deep into a game for the first time this season and Im betting he does that. These teams took part in a 2-1 game yesterday with TB winning and similar type score is a high probability again. Note: TAMPA BAY is 20-6 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. Under is 6-1-1 in Rays last 8 games vs. a left-handed starterUnder is 18-7-1 in Rays last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 33-16-3 in Rays last 52 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 10-3-2 in Glasnows last 15 starts overall.Under is 3-1-1 in Glasnows last 5 starts on grass.Under is 3-1-1 in Glasnows last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Glasnows last 8 starts vs. American League East.Under is 5-2-1 in Glasnows last 8 road starts. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | 86-90 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 I just don't like the flow the Spurs at this point of the season. The Spurs shooting on the whole looks horrendous for the most part and Im also not impressed with their rebounding. The Spurs have not played well away from home all season long, garnering just 17 wins in 44 games, and have already lost 2 of the 3 games here in the Mile High City in this series. After watching the Spurs flail away in the first half of the last game before their desperation and home town fans buoyed them to a win in game 6 , with a 2nd half surge, it became obvious to me the more talented team behind key technical players like Nikola Jokic make this young Denver team a bad matchup for the Spurs. With that said, Im backing the Nuggets to deliver the cash on a cover here in game 7 and advance. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.DENVER is 12-4 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.DENVER is 25-16 ATS as a home favorite this season. SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons Spurs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The inexperienced Nuggets must be a little nervous here as they play a game 7, and could easily start conservatively as they make sure not to make mistakes. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off a big time offensive performance and conversion rate, and Im betting they naturally regress here today. That combination Im betting should help keep this game on the low side of the total. Note: DENVER is 38-17 UNDER L/55 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 197.2 ppg. Popovich is 33-19 UNDER in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average score 189 .4 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 223.5 | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 There is a huge amount of offensive talent on the court here today for both teams. The Raptors average 114.4 ppg, while the Sixers have averaged 115.2 ppg. Im betting both teams come at each other and for this game 1 to feature some offensive fireworks. Raptors: 119.0 ORtg | 58.9% eFG | 92.9 DRtg | 43.8% eFG allowed 76ers: 123.3 ORtg | 57.7% eFG | 101.1 DRtg | 46.3% eFG allowed. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 36-10 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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04-27-19 | Rays v. Red Sox -133 | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L) Price Bostons starting lefty held his own in last weekend's start at Tropicana Field, holding the Rays to five hits and two runs over five innings while notching 10 strikeouts and here at home Im betting he will even be better and gets my support as chalkvs a team that has lost 5 of their L/7 games. PRICE is 18-5 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) . (Team's Record) PRICE is 21-5 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Red Sox are 9-0 on the ML in franchise history with David Price at home when he averaged at least 4.20 pitches per batter in his last start. The Red Sox are 26-0 on the ML L/26 opportunities as a 130-plus favorite off a game as a favorite of 250 or less in which they scored first, trailed, and won and it is before the All-Star break. Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more are 32-79 L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the ML |
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04-26-19 | Yankees -122 v. Giants | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Yankees LH James Paxton (2-2, 3.10 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 3.66) Yankees starter Paxton is in top form has been brilliant in successive starts, recording 12 strikeouts without allowing a run against both the Red Sox and Royals. Meanwhile, Bumgarner the Giants starter has also pitched decently, but whats troubling is his teams lack of run support for him, as he has received just 10 total runs of support in 6 starts. Im betting things wont get much better for him here tonight. Yanks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarners last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarners last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning recordGiants are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 Friday games.Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a combined score of 4 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 13-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML |
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04-26-19 | Warriors -9.5 v. Clippers | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2 The Warriors are the defending NBA champs and have a core of veteran players that know how to win big games and championships. I know the Warriors have looked lazy as they took the Clippers for granted especially in game 5. But now wide awake and not wanting a game 7 look for this super star Dubs team to shine through and get the win and more importantly as far as we are concerned the cover . The key and difference maker int his game Im betting comes behind Greens defensive prowess around the rim. Golden State has won 7 of their L/8 visits to the Staples Center vs the Clippers and get the nod again. This is the biggest spread put on a NBA road play off game in at least 14 seasons, but the Warriors despite of showing chinks in their armour are still capable of covering this number , and the linesmakers and smart money know it. In the last 14 seasons, double-digit underdogs in the NBA playoffs are 10-107 straight up. GOLDEN STATE is 29-13 ATS in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. Play on Golden St to cover |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233 | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2 I betting the Clippers will be a little fatigued here tonight, as they have played extremely hard in this series , and after going off in their last game a regression is expected by me, vs an under rated Golden State defence. That equals out to what I project will be a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. In the last 14 seasons , the under is 96-66 UNDER in Game 6 and 7s , for a almost 60% conversion rate for bettors. GOLDEN STATE in their L/23 games after allowing 120 points or more this season have seen a combined average score of 223.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. Rivers is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a above average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 68-30 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -130 | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Carolina Canes are off an exhausting 7 game series vs the Washington Capitals that saw game 7 go into OT on Wednesday night winning the series and game by a 4-3 count. Note: CAROLINA is 1-11 ATS off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival over the last 3 season. The Canes now completely wiped and on short rest, I expect the well rested Islanders despite of being rusty having the edge here at home, behind their top tier defence and under rated offence ie Matt Barzal. CAROLINA is 0-11 ATS in road games against excellent defensive teams - allowing 2.4 or less goals/game over the last 3 seasons. NY ISLANDERS are 40-29 ATS against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season. NY ISLANDERS are 10-2 ATS off a road win against a division rival this season. Play on the NY Islanders to win on the ML |
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04-25-19 | Yankees -110 v. Angels | 5-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R) Tanaka bounced back from a loss to pitch seven strong innings of one-run ball vs the Royals in his last trip to the hill and has lasted into the sixth inning in four of his five efforts and looks to be getting stronger . Meanwhile, Cahill his Angels pitching opponent , has some troubling numbers, that indicate teams are seeing the ball well against him. Note: Cahill gave up only eight homers in 110 innings last year but has already equalled that total in 26 1/3 innings this year. The Yankees despite of being banged up have enough talent in their offensive lineup to really put a deep ball hurt on Cahill and the Halos, making them my choice here on the ML. LA ANGELS are 0-9 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons. NY YANKEES are 23-9 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. TANAKA is 3-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 0.958 and his team has won all 6 of his career starts vs the Halos. Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5 | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 Denver looked good last time out, but this Spurs team has for some reason, struggled on the road this season, so I was not completely surprised when they lost the key game 5 in the Mile High City. The Spurs are 33-10 SU home this season and have an edge here on their own floor against almost anyone in this league. When the going gets tough having a guy like Popvich in your corner is a good thing . Note: The Spurs behind Popovich are bankroll expanding 30-17-2 ATS in Games 5-7. SAN ANTONIO is 24-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Play on San Antonio to cover . |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 207.5 | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 This series is getting more physical, and both sides are figuring the other sides schemes out. Last time out we saw a lower scoring affair, and Im betting nothing changes here tonight, especially considering the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday. In the last 14 seasons , betting the under in Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 96-65 UNDER for a just under 60% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-57 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-25-19 | Indians +141 v. Astros | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R) Houstons starter tonight Cole, finished fifth in the 2018 American League Cy Young Award voting with an 15-5 record and 2.88 ERA, is off to just a 1-3 start with a 5.22 ERA this season. Thanks to his reputation and that of his teammates he is still listed a hefty favorite despite of going against a top tier hurler in the Tribes Trevor Bauer.Bauer (2-1, 2.20), and finished sixth in last year's Cy Young voting behind Cole, is a perfect 7-0 with a 3.18 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros and gets my support here tonight on a value line. HINCH is 6-15 against the money line vs. struggling power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game as the manager of HOUSTON . Play on Cleveland to win on the ML |
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04-25-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 Play UNDER |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8 v. Rockets | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1 Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down. In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and in game 4 the Rockets were held to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been coming in this tilt. I like our edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives. D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. Play on Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-24-19 | Dodgers -113 v. Cubs | 6-7 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77) Dodgers lost last night to the Cubs, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot and make it 10 wins in 12 games . Buehler had eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday and gets my support. Look for a LA offence that averages a National League-best 5.52 runs per game to buoy their pitcher and deliver the cash to us . HAMELS the Phillies starter is 23-31 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 20-50 L/22 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML |
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04-24-19 | Hurricanes +145 v. Capitals | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 The public is assuming that in a game 7 at home the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals have an edge. However,, it must be noted the Canes won a 60.3% shot share in this series and a 58% high danger zone edge and have been one the leagues top 5 vs 5 teams in the NHL all season long. I know the Capitals have a game changer in Ovechkin, but the team as a whole just don't look as cohesive as last season, and with no Barry Trottz behind the bench, and key cog TJ Oshie out the Caps are simply just not as dangerous, and susceptible to being upset here by a side that I feel is every bit as good as the Caps. To simply put it there is just enough value for us to pull he trigger . WASHINGTON is 4-11 ATS in home games when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996. Play on the Carolina Canes to win on the ML |
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04-24-19 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Pirates | 11-2 | Win | 110 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R) LYLES the Pirates starter is 13-41 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record) LYLES is 2-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.762. The DBacks have faired well here in Pittsburgh over the last few seasons winning 7 of their 8 games, and get my support again on a value line. ARIZONA is 30-17 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons ARIZONA is 24-13 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 12-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona to win on the ML |
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04-24-19 | White Sox v. Orioles -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN MEANS (L) The struggling Orioles smashed the White Sox 9-1 last night and have an edge tonight vs a team that is just as bad as themselves. "Means is going to make a lot of starts," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said of the 25-year-old rookie. "It's something we're going to play with because I do like John in the rotation. He's pitching really well and deserves to stay in the rotation." Means pitched well in his last start, permitting one run on four hits in five innings of a 4-0 setback at Boston on April 14. White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. White Sox are 17-42 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Home team is 7-1 in Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate vs. ChicagoHome team is 22-6 in Fairchilds last 28 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore. White Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 games with Fairchild behind home plate. Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML |
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04-23-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3 | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
The Thunder showed flashes of brilliance earlier this season, and even before the play offs started I looked at them as a possible dark horse contender. But in never ending chase for value and a readjustment on my estimated market price attached to them, I changed my opinion. The Thunder continue to struggle with their shooting , and they just dont look like they have an answer for McCollum and and Lillard and with Paul George struggling with nagging injuries and his lack flow for long periods of time, it very much looks like their party is over. I know the public loves the Thunder, but there comes a time when illusion transgresses back into reality. PORTLAND is 11-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-15 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 138-37 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a point differential of 7.9 ppg clicking in! NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 55-12 L/22 seasons for 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 8.8 ppg whihc qualifies as value on this spread. Portland to cover |
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04-23-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 Game 7 , is a do or die for both teams. Neither one of these sides will be wanting to make mistakes, and will play this game in transition. After studying their game plan techniques , it makes sense for me to recommend an under wager here. SAN JOSE is 17-6 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996 with a combined average of 4.3 gpg scored. Play UNDER |
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04-23-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -110 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 Hertl guaranteed that the Sharks would force a deciding Game 7 and then he ensured it would happen by scoring the game-winning short-handed goal in double overtime in Sunday night's 2-1 victory. With the momentum and home ice advantage in their favor Im betting they deliver to us a winning ticket tonight in San Jose. VEGAS is 5-12 ATS revenging a loss where team scored 1 or less goals this season. Play on San Jose to win on the ML |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 212 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2 Now that this series is tied 2-2 Im betting we start to see this series turn much more physical as a proverbial dog fight unfolds. I know Denver has shown some offensive flow in the last few games, but they have been hitting 3s at a high rate, but only converting around the rim at a 47.8% clip and a regression must be expected according to my projections. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only taken shots from beyond the arc in 18.3 % of their possessions and continually look to push the ball inside which indicates a concerted effort to dig in play physical ball and do their offensive work around the rim. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers and public might expect. Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 vs. Western Conference. Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. .Under is 11-3 in Nuggets last 14 home games.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Play UNDER |
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04-23-19 | Magic v. Raptors -11.5 | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1 Since game 2 of this series the Raptors have absolutely dominated and dismantled the young Magic and Im betting nothing changes tonight in TO. The Raptors are cleaning the glass at a high rate, not allowing open 3s and just plain old showing us all how dangerous and deep they are. This matchup reminds me alot of the lopsided Milwaukee /Detroit series . Note: The Raptors Net Rating +23.7 which is almost on par with the Bucks. TORONTO is 9-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg. In the L/14 seasons, chalk favored by double-digits in Game 5 are 25-1 SU, with the average wining point diff clicking in at 14.4 points per game Play on Toronto to cover |
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04-23-19 | White Sox -133 v. Orioles | 1-9 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
IVAN NOVA (R) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R) The Chicago White Sox pounded the Orioles yesterday 12-2 and Im betting they come out here and get the job done again behind a up-trending offence. Note: Baltimore is just 1-10 this season at home and now have dropped four in a row -- losing a three-game weekend series to the Minnesota Twins in Baltimore before the White Sox came in. The Pale Hose starter Nova is 8-4 in his career against the Orioles with a 4.98 ERA. He's made 17 starts and pitched in 18 contests and get my support here today.NOVA is 23-8 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record) CHI WHITE SOX are 10-5 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like the Os starting hulrer Cashner. The Orioles are 0-28 on the ML when their opponent's starter is a righty and has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than two on the season. Play on the White Sox to win on the ML |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 213 | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0 James Harden shot 3-of-20 (15%) from the field in the Rockets’ Game 3 victory in Utah and now Im expecting a more efficient outing from the super star and his team as a whole. I know Utah is a defense first team, and really protect the rim well with Gobert , but because of this the Rockets will have space to shoot 3s, because when the vacuum cleaner as I like to call him, is pulled out of the paint he's out of his comfort zone. With elimination on board for the Rockets Im expecting they become aggressive, and this in turn will force the Jazz to open up which in turn will make for a higher scoring game than the public leaning linesmakers are expecting. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 79-33 OVER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-22-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0 The Jazz did everything possible to beat the Rockets last time out and they still lost. Now completely letdown the Jazz have to face a group that gives them alot of matchup difficulties and their just not built to handle them. That's why Im betting on a sweep here and for the Rockets to end this tonight. Note: Favorites with a 3-0 series lead in Game 4 are 24-17-1 ATS last 14 seasons. Play on the Rockets to cover |
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04-22-19 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.63) starts against the Rockies. He is coming off a strong effort against the San Francisco Giants in which he allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings. Note: The Nationals are 0-13 UNDER in franchise history with Jeremy Hellickson when he averaged fewer than 4.1 pitches per batter in his last start. Meanwhile, Colorado continues to get good starting pitching, and is expected to activate Anderson for this start. He had arm inflammation , but now better should provide his team with a stable performance. He's 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Nationals for his career. HELLICKSON is 10-2 UNDER in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.4 rpg.
COLORADO is 22-9 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 rpg. Under is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-8-2 in Nationals last 28 Monday games.Under is 6-0 in Hellicksons last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Hellicksons last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 10-1 in Hellicksons last 11 road starts.Under is 8-1 in Hellicksons last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 8-2 in Hellicksons last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-5 in Hellicksons last 21 starts on grass.Under is 16-5 in Hellicksons last 21 starts overall. Under is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 8-2-1 in Rockies last 11 overall.Under is 8-2-1 in Rockies last 11 on grass.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 home games.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. National League East.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 19-6-2 in Rockies last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 23-8-2 in Rockies last 33 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 7-3-1 in Rockies last 11 during game 1 of a series. Play UNDER |
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04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 218 | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 3-0 The Pistons haven't shown enough of a defensive presence against a Bucks team that averaged a league-high 118.1 points a game and their obviously not capable enough of stopping them again tonight. With Milwaukee on the verge of their first play off round series win in 18 seasons you can bet they will be ready to end this tonight in full beatdown mode. The Pistons will have no choice but to open up and try to keep pace which will make for a total score that eclipses this number. Budenholzer in his L/8 road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average score of 228.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER Play OVER |
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04-22-19 | Brewers +143 v. Cardinals | 5-13 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
ADRIAN HOUSER (R) vs. JACK FLAHERTY (R) Flaherty allowed five runs on nine hits to Milwaukee last week -- including homers to Lorenzo Cain and Yasmani Grandal in just 2 2/3 innings to take the loss. Im betting the Brewers matchup well against Cardinals starter and get my support again here on a value line. Note: ight-hander Adrian Houser, who will make his first career start in the majors in place of the injured Freddy Peralta (shoulder). The 26-year-old has pitched well with Triple-A San Antonio this season, posting a 1-0 mark with a 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three starts (16 1/3 frames). The Brewers are 8-0 on the ML on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits. Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Brewers are 17-5 in their last 22 Monday games.Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. National League Central.Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Brewers are 56-20 in their last 76 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cardinals are 2-8 in Flahertys last 10 starts.Cardinals are 2-8 in Flahertys last 10 starts on grass.Cardinals are 1-4 in Flahertys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 in Flahertys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 in Flahertys last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-4 in Flahertys last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in St. Louis.Brewers are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.Cardinals are 2-5 in Flahertys last 7 starts vs. Brewers. MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ST LOUIS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season are 36-50 L/5 seasons . MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 17-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML |
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04-22-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -108 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - WAS Leads 3-2 Washington took a 3-2 series lead with Saturday night's 6-0 home victory. The win for the Capitals was bitter sweet, as they lost one of their key cogs, T.J. Oshie who will not play for the rest of the play offs. That loss is as huge as a Trump wall plan, as Oshie is one of the team leaders and Im betting his departure will effect the flow of the Capitals here in this very important game 6 matchup . CAROLINA is 11-4 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more this season. WASHINGTON is 19-22 ATS after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season. Capitals are 6-14 in their last 20 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Carolina Canes to win on the ML |
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04-22-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Caps took a 6-0 win last time out, for a 3-2 lead in this series. Now with one of these teams on the verge of elimination and the other looking to extend this series both sides will be really paying attention to keeping their mistakes to a minimum via a very conservative game plan that will focus on scoring in transition. CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER off a road loss against a division rival this season with a combined average of 4.7 gpg going on the board. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (WASHINGTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 3+ goals/game on the season, after a blowout win by 4 goals or more are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-21-19 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1 The first two games of this series stayed well below the Total, and in game 3 the total was barely eclipsed very late in the game. Im betting on another hard fought tilt between a Portland side struggling to convert consistently right now, and Oklahoma city team that has underachieved and shot below average all season long. With that said, Im recommending we hit the under again here in game 4. Under is 25-11-2 in the last 38 meetings in Oklahoma City. PORTLAND is 37-17 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 211.9 ppg. Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Thunder last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 220.5 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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04-21-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Thunder | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1 Thanks to Westbrooks great shooting in game 3 of this series, the Thunder muscled past the Blazers, as they played like their hair was on fire and also as a team shot at 50% with their treys. Now in a sort of a letdown scenario I expect Westbrook who is off one of his worst shooting years from beyond the arc (29.3%) to regress here, and to take his team with him . Im betting on Damian Lillard to stand tall here for the Blazers and get us the cover. Thunder are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Play on Portland to cover |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - VGS Leads 3-2 Vegas in five playoff games against San Jose in Las Vegas with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes has garnered shutouts in two games, including a 28-save performance in a 5-0 win on Tuesday in Game 4. Im betting on Fleury standing tall again, and for San Jose to struggle burying the biscuit in their decisive game 6 showdown. Both teams will be proactive in their approach to playing mistake free hockey in this important tilt. VEGAS is 13-4 UNDER in home games after a division game this season with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in April games are 54-29 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-21-19 | Braves v. Indians -121 | 11-5 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
MAX FRIED (L) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R) The Braves starter today Fried worked 16 1/3 innings before allowing his first earned run this season. The lefty's velocity was down during his most recent start, but he still managed to complete six innings . But that downgrade in velocity is a concern, and gives me cause in fading him here vs a streaking Cleveland team. Meanwhile, the Tribes starter Bieber didn’t have his best stuff on Tuesday in Seattle, but he battled through six-plus innings and gave up just one run on four hits. He’s throwing his slider at a higher rate this year, and hitters are just 4-for-29 against the offering which is a plus here vs a Braves group that prefers straight up heat. Cleveland has the edge this Sunday night and Im recommending we take them on the ML. Braves are 17-36 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 17-37 in their last 54 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 5-17 in their last 22 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass. Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts.Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts on grass.Indians are 7-1 in Biebers last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.Indians are 6-1 in Biebers last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more /game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-39 /5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to win on the ML |
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04-21-19 | Raptors -5.5 v. Magic | 107-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1 The Raptors have now won and completely controlled back to back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead, and look like viable road favorites tonight to deliver the goods again vs a Orlando Magic side that is in a shooting funk for the first time since they made their late season run to the play offs. We have concurring momentum patterns forming, with the Magic slumping at the worst possible time, and the powerful Dinos finally starting to show their dominance. NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 8-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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04-21-19 | Blue Jays v. A's -147 | 5-4 | Loss | -147 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L) As Left-hander Brett Anderson (3-0, 2.63) is in top tier form, and gives us a strong opportunity to cash a ticket here this afternoon in Oakland. SANCHEZ the Jays starter is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 10.80 and a WHIP of 2.401. OAKLAND is 21-9 against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Athletics are 17-0 on the ML off a game as a favorite in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter and it is not a series opener. Toronto is 0-18 ML as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of a road series when they are off a game as a dog in which they had more team-left-on-base. Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML |
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04-21-19 | Warriors -8.5 v. Clippers | 113-105 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1 I know alot is being made of the DeMarcus Cousins injury, but from a defensive perspective thats a good thing for the Warriors. As for the Warriors offence they have more than enough guns , to make up for his absence and like I said, they now no longer have a defensive liability on the floor. I know the Clippers played a tremendous game last time out, and shocked the Warriors, but it must be noted that the Warriors are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the game after a defeat when taking on a Western Conference team in the playoffs. Overall the Dubs have cashed 13 of their L/18 on the road and can go from being up by a few points to DDs in the flash of an eye, so laying points with them here in a bounce back situation is not that scary a proposition vs a LA CLIPPERS team that is 2-11 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg. Play on Golden State to cover |
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04-21-19 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2 #1 GOALTENDERS: BOSTON - TUUKKA RASK, TORONTO - FREDERIK ANDERSEN With one of these teams on the verge of elimination and the other looking to extend this series both sides will be really paying attention to keeping their mistakes to a minimum via a very conservative game plan that will focus on scoring in transition. TORONTO is 9-3 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season TORONTO is 11-1 UNDER in home games off a road win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.2 gpg. BOSTON is 9-1 UNDER in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.1 gpg scored. Play on the UNDER |
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04-21-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -111 | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
DAVID PRICE (L) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R) The Rays’ starter today vs the BoSox, Tyler Glasnow, has been brilliant and over powering since being acquired by the Rays in the Chris Archer deal at last seasons deadline. The righty hurler in 80 innings of top tier work owns a solid 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.01. He offers is alot value here on this line as the public gravitates to the BoSox because of them grabbing the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, the BoSox starter Price, goes against a strong LHP hitting team in the Rays. The Rays have cashed 60% of theirL/52 vs southpaw starters.TAMPA BAY is 15-10 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 2-7 against the money line in day games this season. Red Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win. Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games.Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Rays are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a loss.Rays are 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 17-6 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rays are 46-19 in their last 65 home games.Rays are 28-12 in their last 40 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 42-18 in their last 60 overall.Rays are 54-24 in their last 78 games on astroturf.Rays are 26-12 in their last 38 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 38-18 in their last 56 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 4-0 in Glasnows last 4 starts. Play on TB to win on the ML |
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04-21-19 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0 Boston can wrap this series up this Sunday, and thats what Im betting they do. The men from Bean town have owned the Pacers and nothing suggests anything will change today. I think some pundits are surprised the Celtics have righted their ship after a bumpy ride the end of their season, and Im not 100% sure that they can continue this type of play into the next series. But what i do know is that the Celtics matchup well vs a Pacers team that did not look cohesive entering the playoffs. Note: INDIANA is 4-12 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Teams down 3-0 are 3-12 SU L/15 times dating back the 2016 season.
Play on Boston Celtics to cover |
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04-20-19 | Bucks -8.5 v. Pistons | 119-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0 This game and series between the Pistons and the Bucks is a complete mismatch, and the first two lopsided scores favoring Milwaukee were no flukes. No even home court advantage Im betting will save the Pistons from another beatdown. MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with the average margin of victory coming by 13 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS vs. division opponents this season with the average point differential clicking in at +13 ppg. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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04-20-19 | Jets +130 v. Blues | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2 This is a hard fought series between two pretty evenly matched teams. With the Jets on the verge of elimination I look for Winnipeg in all out desperation mode to keep the road team winning trend alive here in this game, and take this to a 7th game. WINNIPEG is 19-8 ATS in road games in April games since 1996.WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS in road games after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game this season. Winnipeg is 8-1 SU L/9 here in St.Louis. Play on the Winnipeg Jets to win on the ML |
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04-20-19 | Jets v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2 The Blues won Game 5 by a 3-2 margin Thursday in Winnipeg, overcoming a two-goal deficit in the third period and getting the winner from Jaden Schwartz with 15 seconds remaining in regulation. With this game being a do or die situation for one team and series clincher for the other Im expecting both sides to be extra careful with mistakes, which Im betting translates to total score that will remain on the low side of the total. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE sprinkled in with top tier goaltending has me recommending an under wager tonight in this tilt. Play UNDER |
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04-20-19 | Red Sox +130 v. Rays | 6-5 | Win | 130 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R) Porcello has struggled out of the gate this season, but is still a viable hurler, who has pitched well at Tropicana in his career, going 8-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 starts. Meanwhile, TBs Morton who got off to fast start this season looked mortal after is off his shortest outing of the season where he went just 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out. Value here on a Red Sox team that will be woken up out of their World Series hangover slumber vs a strong looking Rays team. BOSTON is 12-7 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 3 starts are 17-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Red Sox on the ML |
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04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 232 | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
According to my projections tell me we have value with an under wager here in this tilt between the Sixers and Nets. This total has gotten bigger with each game, and now the linesmkaers have over adjusted . Brooklyn cant keep on just trying to run and gun and blow by the Sixers, and Im betting their coaching staff makes enough adjustments here today to thwart the Sixers flow. Afternoon games have a long term tendency of being played at a slower pace which Im betting this aids our under wager cashing. PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 UNDER in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road win, in April games are 51-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion .rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-19-19 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 222 | 108-120 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - POR Leads 2-0 The Oklahoma City Thunder have exhibited less than stellar shooting prowess all season long,ranking 22nd in in 3 point shooting and things are not getting much better, and have now shot a combined 10-61 (16.4%) from 3-point range in the first two games of this series. Tonight Im betting the Thunders long range futility will contribute to a lower scoring game as will Portlands horrendous 2nd to last play off FG% conversion rate vs a strong rim protection Thunder group. PORTLAND is 21-9 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 204.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0 The two first games of this series have not gone of the Pacers way thanks to in ability to keep their offensive flow going and converting on easy shots, while also allowing them selves to get up in defensive affairs , which the Celtics are looking better at implementing . So tonight Im expecting more flow to the Pacers game as they look to resurrect their chances in this series/ With that said, Im betting on a tilt that will feature more offence and a faster pace. NBA team (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-19-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L) With a 2-1 loss at Oakland on Wednesday, Houston saw its 10-game winning streak come to an end, but that game was a blip on an upward momentum chart and Im betting they rebound in a big way here today with Verlander on the hill for them. DREW SMYLY the Texas starter is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.741 he has seen his team lose all 4 of his career starts vs the ASTROS. MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (HOUSTON) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less are 42-1 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 3.7 rpg. Play on Houston on the -1.5 RL |
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04-19-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2 Two Eastern Conference series ended this week in four-game sweeps, but the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs are battling it out in a series that has come down to a best two out of three. With these teams beating each other up and playing a more physical type of game plan, Im betting on more conservative efforts that base their respective attacks on transition, which will equate to less quality scoring opportunities and less goals going on the board. Last time out these teams took part in the highest scoring affair of this series with the Bruins winning by a 6-4 count, but now Im betting both sides knowing this type of hockey is not sustainable or equitable to winning a tight series will revert back to being much more defensive minded in this game and going forward in this series. TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals this season.BOSTON is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game this season. Play UNDER |
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04-19-19 | Maple Leafs +130 v. Bruins | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
The Leafs and the Bruins are in a tit for tat battle for their play off lives and tonight I like the value attached to the Leafs here . In game 5 the Bruins got out to a 5-2 lead before the Leafs looked to rip into another gear yet seen from them in while, but still lost 6-4. Tonight Im betting that high octane attack that the Leafs can produce will be on full display and will get them to them a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bruins D, will stand tall but it wont be enough to get them out of this game without a loss.TORONTO is 20-6 ATS off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Maple Leafs to win on the ML |
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04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 The Raptors after losing game 1 came storming back with a convincing two way performance, crushing Orlando by a 111-82 count. After watching the Raptors dismantle, the Magic, Im betting the zig zag theory does not apply to this matchup. I know Orlando has had quite a 2nd half run ,but right now I feel the Dinos talent level and hunger for victory will trump what this young group has to offer.Note: NBA play off road favs are 30-11-1 against the spread over the last couple of seasons for a 73% conversion rate. I like this game alot and would bet it as high as -6. TORONTO is 33-19 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raptors to cover |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 Denver may have found a way to win and cover in game 2 of this series, but San Antonio still looked like the better overall team, and deserve my backing here tonight. Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games. DENVER is 6-15 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. SAN ANTONIO is 20-2 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons in San Antonio. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. SAN ANTONIO is 16-5 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS in home games against Northwest division opponents this season. Play on the San Antonio Spurs . to cover |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 210.5 | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
These teams play contrasting styles both home nd away. The Nuggets went under in 25 of their 41 road games and were the most profitable UNDER road team in the league this season , while the Spurs were 23-18 to the under at home. With that said, after a fairly high scoring game in Denver last time out, Im betting on this one being more conservative and physcial in nature as the young inexperienced Nuggets try to find their footing in a hostile environment. Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 Thursday games.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 13-3 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up win. Under is 14-4 in Nuggets last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 overall.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 14-6 in Nuggets last 20 vs. Western Conference.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 home games.Under is 16-5 in Spurs last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Spurs last 8 overall.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.Under is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-16 in Spurs last 52 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 210.5 (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 64-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-18-19 | Phillies v. Rockies +102 | 2-6 | Win | 102 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
ZACH EFLIN (R) vs. KYLE FREELAND (L) Colorado will send left-hander Kyle Freeland to the mound to face righty Zach Eflin in the opener of the series. Eflin (2-1, 3.94) was was hit hard in a 10-3 loss at Miami on Saturday. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in just four innings. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Colorado and sports a 9.20 ERA and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs the Rockies and is fade material here today on the road. I know Colorados Freelend has had some issues thanks to blistering, but he is said to be good to go and when hes on he is hard beat.FREELAND is 16-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Phillies are 1-7 in Eflins last 8 road starts.Phillies are 1-8 in Eflins last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Phillies are 0-4 in Eflins last 4 starts vs. National League West. Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 Thursday starts.Rockies are 8-1 in Freelands last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 7-1 in Freelands last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.Rockies are 6-1 in Freelands last 7 starts vs. National League East.Rockies are 13-3 in Freelands last 16 home starts.Rockies are 22-6 in Freelands last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rockies are 13-4 in Freelands last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 12-4 in Freelands last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.Rockies are 23-8 in Freelands last 31 starts on grass.Rockies are 23-9 in Freelands last 32 starts. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 27-44 L/22 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado Rockies to win on the ML |
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04-18-19 | Blues +107 v. Jets | 3-2 | Win | 107 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
This series between the Jets and Blues has featured four straight wins by the road team and here in Winnipeg tonight Im betting the trend stays intact. Look for Blues, Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington who has lost two in a row for the first time in his career despite answering a six-goal performance with a sterling 37-save effort on Tuesday to be instrumental for the Blues here tonight. The 25-year-old stopped 50 of 54 shots in the Blues' two victories in Winnipeg. ST LOUIS is 17-4 ATS against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year this season.ST LOUIS is 5-0 ATS in road games in the first round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons. WINNIPEG is 10-21 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road wins since 1996. Blues are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. Blues are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Play on St.Louis Blues to win on the ML |
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04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets +3 | 131-115 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 37 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 This series is now tied 1-1 and swings back to Brooklyn in a more favorable environment for the Nets. The Nets stole game 1 before the Sixers stormed back in game 2 and won in convincing fashion.Now on a couple of days rest the Nets will now be ready to rebound. Note: The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games on two days of rest. During the regular season, Philadelphia was 20-21 as visitors, while Brooklyn was 23-18 as hosts and have the edge here getting points. In the last 13 + seasons, teams like theNets that allowed 125 or more points in a loss have gone 28-18 (61%) ATS in the playoffs BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.PHILADELPHIA is 19-32 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more 41-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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04-18-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
After going down 2-0 in this series the Canes came flying back in game 3 for a 5-0 win and now with two days rest are very ready to tie this series with the defending Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals. Im betting special teams will be key to what Im betting Washington is 0-for-10 in the power play since Ovechkin scored with 1:55 remaining in the first period of Game 1.. Carolina has scored on three of its last 10 chances with the man advantage in the last two contests. Capitals are 6-14 in their last 20 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Favorite is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play on Carolina to win on the ML |