Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-18 | Charlotte v. Tennessee -20.5 | 3-14 | Loss | -108 | 117 h 59 m | Show | |
Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover Projected score: Tennessee 44 Charlotte 9 |
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11-03-18 | Florida State +9 v. NC State | 28-47 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Florida State to cover |
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11-03-18 | West Virginia +2.5 v. Texas | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 10 m | Show | |
The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter. It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs. CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-03-18 | UTEP v. Rice OVER 44.5 | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams Rice (1-8) and UTEP ( 0-8) have had dismal seasons, and both look forward to the opportunity to notch a win in this spot. Rice has been without starting QB Shawn Stankavage since Oct 19 , but have started to find a way to move the ball of late , and really didn't look to bad against far superior teams Florida International and North Texas scoring 17 points in each of those games, despite of getting squashed because of porous D, that has allowed an average of 39 ppg this season. My own projections estimate UTEP will eclipse their 18.9 ppg average offensive output here today by a full TD, and their Swiss cheese D that allows an average of 34.2 ppg on the road to allow Rice to also score into the mid 20s, which should at least according to my estimates see this total number easily eclipsed. RICE is 25-12 OVER L/37 versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average score of 61.5 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RICE/UTEP) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 54-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion Tate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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11-02-18 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 56.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
. The Wildcats defence stood tall last week vs Oregon but in recent meetings between these football programs high scoring games have taken place, with Arizona taking a 45-42 win on the road last season and Colorado scoring 49 points in 2016 in their visit to the desert while allowing 24 points. Both went over the total as has 6 of the L/7 meetings overall. What Im betting on this week is that Arizona's Khalil Tate and company behind a group that put 44 points on the board last week will do offensive damage vs a Colorado team that allowed Oregon State 41 points last week, and for the Buffalos to have no other option than to open things up and respond in kind in what will be a high scoring shoot out in the desert this Friday night. Note: Arizona has rushed for at least 267 yards in each of the last six meetings with Colorado. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 with 205.33 rushing yards per game this season. Khalil Tate destroyed the Buffs last season, and I won't be surprised by another big outing as he finally looks to be on the mend. HC Sumlin is 13-2 OVER in home games off a home win by 17 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 82.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-02-18 | Avalanche -130 v. Canucks | 6-7 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Colorado despite of a current tow game losing streak will be primed to end their drought behind the top line of Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog a dangerous group that the Canucks will have a hard time dealing with tonight. All three rank among the NHL's top scorers and the Avs are contending for first place in the Central Division. With that said, Im betting on the Avs to hand the injury riddled /rebuilding Vancouver Canucks a loss tonight on the road. Yes, I know the Canucks have won two straight and pulled off some impressive upsets playing strict disciplined systemic hockey but that ends in this spot vs a side that is both fundamentally sound , more talented and healthier and currently much hungrier. Canucks are 23-48 in their last 71 vs. a team with a winning record.Canucks are 16-34 in their last 50 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.Canucks are 8-17 in their last 25 games following a win.Canucks are 16-35 in their last 51 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.Canucks are 3-10 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous gameNHL teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (COLORADO) - good closing team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after allowing 5 goals or more are 53-19 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Colorado Avs to win on the moneyline |
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11-02-18 | Thunder +2.5 v. Wizards | 134-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
We have two teams currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Washington on a current 4 game losing streak, and the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on a 3 game win streak. From a matchup perspective and player to player/system vs system standpoint the Thunder also have the edge and have what every coach loves, a hard working never say die group. So Im not worried bout them being on tired legs here tonight after playing last night. A recent quote also exhibits the respect the Thunder have for each other which will only add to their current positive chemistry. QUOTE: "I'm fortunate I play with one of the baddest (expletive) in this league," George told the Oklahoman about hiss super star team mate Wetbrook. "Excuse my language, but it's the best way to describe him. Just straight toughest dude out there." END QUOTE. I can't describe Washingtons current performances with the same admiration, and Im fading them here tonight, and in the near future till they show me they can be more consistent and compete when the going gets tough. Look for another key difference maker tonight to come via the Thunders superior Charity stripe shooting.The Thunder lead the NBA in free throws attempted per game and made 21 of 29 Thursday night. WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall.Wizards are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wizards are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Wizards are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 73-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder |
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11-02-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Nets | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The Rockets enter this game against Brooklyn having lost their five games by an average of 14.4 points and were blown off the court last time in embarrassing DD fashion by Portland 104-85. They also have trailed by at least 20 points for 39:10 after trailing by at least 20 points in a league-low 12:51 last season. Their 1-5 record is indicative of just how little effort they seem to be putting into games , and its not because of James Hardens absence. But despite of this here I am laying points with them on the road . Call me crazy, but Im expecting the Rockets to wake up long enough tonight to put the hammer down on a Brooklyn Nets team that my power rankings and cross reference player to player and system matchup suggest favour the Rockets . Note: HC D'Antoni is 24-8 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.D'Antoni is 8-0 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON. NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games are 2-27 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 93% for bettors. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 106 h 17 m | Show | |
Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again, and get my support here in this spot getting points. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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11-01-18 | Temple +11 v. Central Florida | 40-52 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number. TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Temple to cover |
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11-01-18 | Nuggets v. Cavs +5.5 | 110-91 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
These teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum to begin their seasons. So its obvious from a statistical handicapping outlook, that one would have to consider the Nuggets the superior side in their current form. The only important question left for me to answer , is whether the Cavs with momentum can cover here at home, vs a Denver team that looks pooched and barely escaped Chicago with a 108-107 win last night and now paying their 3rd game in 4 nights on tired legs. The answer , Im betting is the Cavs off their first win of the season last time out and on fresher legs can and will make a game of this and get us the cover. Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. HC Malone is 16-29 ATS off a road win as the coach of DENVER. CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Cavs won 136-114 vs Atlanta last time out. DENVER is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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11-01-18 | Ohio v. Western Michigan +3 | 59-14 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan as both are terrific Qbs. Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by 11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game . Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is 2-11 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos. Play on Western Michigan to cover |
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11-01-18 | Stars v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 101 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Star forward Austin Mathews is expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks with a shoulder injury, and was apparent the scoring sensations absence effected the chemistry of the attack, as Toronto’s first full game without Matthews saw the Buds lose 3-1 at home to Calgary Flames on Oct. 29. Toronto produced just 25 shots in that game. Im betting that will continue tonight vs visiting Dallas. Meanwhile, Dallas enters this game on tired legs as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, and the will be in no hurry to open things up and instead depend on their transition game . This combination of situations will result in a lower scoring game than the Total line indicates. In 7 home games the Leafs and their opponents have averaged 5 gpg. Dallas in their 4 games vs on the road have seen a combined average of 4.7 gpg scored and they themselves have averaged just 1.7 gpg in those tilts. TORONTO is 5-0 UNDER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game this season and is 5-0 UNDER against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season.TORONTO is 7-1 UNDER against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal this season.TORONTO is 13-4 UNDER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 60-17 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-31-18 | Jazz v. Wolves +3 | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
The Wolves looked strong in a 124-120 win over the Los Angeles Lakers last time out, as both Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns played well. The trade rumours associated with Butler are something he might be feeding off, instead of it effecting him in a negative way. Tonight Im betting the Wolves, are up to the task on their own home floor of dealing with a quality Utah side that might be dealing with a little fatigue as they play their 4th straight road game, and 3rd game in 4 nights. MINNESOTA is 35-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-4 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games he has coached since 1996. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 7-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 20-48 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged 235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. Buffalo to cover |
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10-30-18 | Golden Knights v. Predators -155 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
The Vegas Knights are exhibiting classic Stanley Cup finals hangover symptoms and are starting to play alot more like a expansion team. Opponents are now well prepared to take on the the Golden Knights' system as the Knights now rank 28thin the league in scoring. Big offseason acquisitions such as Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny have yet to pay off as the chemistry of late seasons team seem to have been disturbed. Meanwhile, the Preds 8-3 on the season, despite of a couple of inconsistent efforts of late remain a contender for Lord Stanleys Cup and must be respected . Also if star Goalie Pekka Rhine does not play tonight because of injury his backup, Saros has been above expectations and has garnered a solid 5-2-0 record along with a solid 2.73 GAA and .912 save percentage. NASHVILLE is 14-4 ATS against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.NASHVILLE is 10-0 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons NHL Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (VEGAS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team in the first half of the season are 8-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Nashville Preds to win on the moneylline |
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10-30-18 | Heat v. Hornets -4 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Charlotte beat Miami in their first meeting this season in Florida, by a 113-112 count a 3.5 point dogs and according to my power rankings and more advanced statistical head to head situations matchup well against the Heat . This is strictly a matchup comparison based on how the Hornets play teams like Miami. With that said, lets lay the short lumber with the home team. CHARLOTTE is 12-0 ATS versus struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Road underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games are 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover |
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10-30-18 | Hawks +5 v. Cavs | 114-136 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
New HC Drew will coach the winless Cavaliers Tuesday night when the Hawks visit town. The lines makers are leaning on the hapless Cavs to suddenly come to life and jump off their death beds long enough to win and cover vs a Atlanta team that handily beat them by DDs in their first meeting this season by a 133-111 count. Drew might turn this team around eventually , but they are not viable favorites right now and are still fade material until Im proven wrong. You have to remember this was a team without a system last year, under former HC Lue and just played off the energy of LeBron James. Now with no James, a huge albatross hangs over the team, and until they shake those effects off, they are destined to getting punched out on a consistent basis. With their talent base, the Cavs will get going eventually but not just yet as key starter Kevin Love remains on the sidelines with an injury.Cleveland enters the game as one of the league's worst defensive teams with a defensive rating of 120.1 while allowing 118.5 points per game and lost 119 -107 to Indiana last time out. CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta to cover |
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10-30-18 | Kings +5 v. Magic | 107-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
In game 4 of their season the Orland Magic shocked the NBA pundits with a defensive gem and win vs the Boston Celtics . But that upset for Orlando Magic has seen them playing with a hang over in two straight games which resulted in ulgy DD losses. In Saturday's loss vs Milwaukee, the Magic shot 32.7 percent (33 of 101) and in their three double-digit losses, they are shooting 33.9 percent (112 of 281) and overall they are shooting 41.2 percent, which is among the bottom feeders in percentages in the league. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings are in a rhythm and have now won three straight games and must be respected in the underdog role here today in their current form. ORLANDO is 5-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. NBA team vs the money line (SACRAMENTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-7 SU for a 88% conversion rate dating back 22 seasons. NBA Favorites (ORLANDO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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10-29-18 | Wild -140 v. Canucks | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
After starting their season slowly the Minnesota Wild are now rolling as is evident by winning 5 straight games. Meanwhile, rebuilding Vancouver started off surprisingly strong and are now fading and playing the type of mediocre hockey many of the pundits expected before this season began. The Canucks have lost 2 straight and 3 of their L/4 and were smashed 5-0 by the Penguins last time out. Injuries are also starting to pile up for the young men from Vancouver, and they look to be at a disadvantage vs a side that is currently in top form. Canucks are 3-12 in their last 15 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Vancouver.Road team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Minnesota Wild to win |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road . Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points have gone under 18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall. NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-29-18 | Lakers +1 v. Wolves | 120-124 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
LeBron James and company enter this game playing inconsistently, one night they look like possible championship contenders and than on others they simply don't as their 2-4 record might indicate. When James was with the Cavaliers the same type of efforts became common place, as the team did not play a system, and rather just lived and died off the energy of the Great one. Prior to their loss to the Spurs on the road last time out, James had a Triple , double, and has now averaged 27.3 ppg on the season. Tonight Im betting on the super star rebounding and leading his team to victory vs a side that could easily find themselves distracted by the Jimmy Butler trade rumours. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS L/4 vs Western Conference. NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-6 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 26-3 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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10-29-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +2 | 109-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Two undefeated 6-0 teams with new HCs go head to head tonight, but Im betting home court advantage will be the ultimate difference maker as Milwaukee behind Giannis Antetokoumpo and the chemistry stable group of Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are currently in break neck form. I know the Raptors must be respected behind Kawhi Leonard and talented group, but after watching both teams play, I like the way the Bucks matchup against the Raptors and recommend we go on the take with Milwaukee. A TORONTO is 44-71 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins . Bucks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 29-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 22-3 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 2-26 SU for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings -1 | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 51 m | Show | |
I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT, when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-28-18 | Sharks -135 v. Ducks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Anaheim currently allows the most shots on goal per game in the NHL at 38.2 while taking the fewest (24) ad are really struggling to get in a rhythm and have now lost four straight games. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks had a 3 game win streak end last time out, after blowing a 2-0 lead, and will now be primed to bounce back, and also get a revenge for a opening night 5-2 home loss suffered to this same Ducks team. Key words here tonight for the Sharks are redemption and revenge. Sharks are 23-8 in their last 31 vs. Pacific.Sharks are 20-8 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Sharks are 41-18 in their last 59 vs. a team with a losing record.Ducks are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. Pacific.Ducks are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Ducks are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Ducks are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Anaheim. Play on the San Jose Sharks to win on the moneyline |
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10-28-18 | Warriors v. Nets +10.5 | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
After a slow start to their campaign the mighty Golden State Warriors have really been a groove and smashed their L/3 opponents by DDs. I know their hosts the Brooklyn Nets are far from being as talented as the visitors, but the scheduling of this tilt does Im betting give them an advantage as the Warriors could be using this game as a rest stop as they prepare to embark on a exhausting 3 games in four night road excursion right after tonights game starting in Chicago. Right now Steve Kerrs group feel pretty good about themselves, and I doubt they will outright overlook their opponents, but what Im betting they will do, is be in energy reserving mode. One last thing, Steve Kerr has said he happy with the golden crews performance of late, but has some issues with their lack of defensive play, and they could use this tilt to get back into a more pressure oriented defensive mode of hoops which will slow this game down, and in turn give Brooklyn a team that is last in the league in pace to play a speed that suits their style of play , and gives them a much better chance at covering the number. Warriors are 5-11 ATS L/16 vs the Nets as visitors. BROOKLYN is 14-3 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.Kerr is 13-26 ATS against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 3-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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10-28-18 | Packers +10.5 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 28 m | Show | |
Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams. GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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10-28-18 | Packers v. Rams OVER 56 | 27-29 | Push | 0 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout. GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg. Green Bays last game resulted in a high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the Cheese machine is 12-0 OVER L/12 off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points . NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are. DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on an opponent coming off a victory. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack. So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D, is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg. NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week , as defending Super bowl Champs are 100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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10-27-18 | San Diego State -2.5 v. Nevada | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs .500 or less conference opponents since 2014. CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on San Diego State to cover |
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10-27-18 | Lakers v. Spurs +1 | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
A lot of pundits are looking at this game as a easy win for the incoming Lakers behind LeBron James and company, especially after the headlines the Great One made by registering his triple , double last time out. However, Im not in that corner, and believe HC Popovich has the ability to mold this team into a system that has made the Spurs one of the best defensive teams in the NBA , and right their current ship quickly. I know that has not been the case so far, but Im a big believer in Popovich and his abilities. With that said, tonight Im betting the Spurs will have success on their own home floor against a side, that does not have any implemented system, other than following the energy of James. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher have failed to win 19 of the L/26 opportunities. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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10-27-18 | Magic v. Bucks -8.5 | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Milwaukee 5-0 on the season behind Giannis Antetounmpo and his explosive offensive side kick Middleton make up one of the NBA's top tier of young duo of stars . Under new HC Mike Budenholzer this team is finally showing consistency and swagger. You can feel it , the Bucks are for real as long as this duo can stay healthy. The Bucks lead the league in 3-point conversions (16.0) and attempts (41.8) per game and are clicking at a 38.3 percent clip, good for ninth in the league. Tonight against a Orland side, allowing an average of 12.6 made 3-pointers on 32.4 attempts, I expect the over powering down town action to continue and for the Bucks to cruise to victory and more importantly a cover. NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or lesser 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 59.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show | |
Let me say it does not matter if Sam Ehlinger plays QB this week or not, for Texas, as he is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Shane Buechele,will be a fine replacement, and the 6th ranked Longhons Im betting do significant offensive damage this week, vs a a defense that is struggling and has allowed 40 plus points in their L/2 home games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State despite of all their misgivings are averaging 43.2 ppg in offence at home this season and can score against the best of teams. These teams have gone over in 6 of their L/7 meetings and Im betting this one flys over as well. Oklahoma State is 12-0 OVER at home off a game where they allowed at least 28 points with a combined average of 87.3 ppg going on the board. No tilt saw less than 70 total points scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 26-8 OVER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) since 1992 with the average combined score clicking in at 66.1 ppg.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 86.9 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-27-18 | Blazers v. Heat -1 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The Heat have been plagued by injuries early this season but Im not sure thats been a a bad thing, as from the rubble of all those injuries, has emerged some top tier talent as shooting guard Josh Richardson (19.3) has stepped up as Miami's leading scorer as well as McGruder who is averaging 16.5 points. It might not look like it but this Heat team must still be respected here on their own home floor. With the Blazers on tired legs as they prepare to play their 4 th game in 7 days, Im betting we have value taking a fresher team. Also look for Heat All-Star point guard Goran Dragic to spend a lot of his efforts successfully corralling Blazers star Lillard. PORTLAND is 5-17 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 51-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami to cover |
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10-27-18 | Blackhawks v. Blues -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Blues are off having blown their second straight two-goal lead in a ugly 7-4 loss to the Columbus Blue jackets , drawing cat calls and boos from what was left of the 17,068 in attendance at Enterprise Center. It was not a good seen, and some key players actually apologized to the fans afterwards. QUOTE:"It (stinks)," Tarasenko said. "If I had more English words I would explain this, but not much. It feels (bad) to be doing this in front of our fans. This is not the most fun time in our life and in my life personally. I don't know if you can (stink) more and then you get out of it. END QUOTE:The locker room was closed for 23 minutes after Thursday's game, and obviously some things were said, that should ignite the Blues to much better performance against long time original six rivals the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. Meanwhile, Chicago has been playing well but their on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 5 nights, and will be at a disadvantage against a very motivated team out looking for redemption.CHICAGO is 19-31 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams against the money line (CHICAGO) - after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more against opponent after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game are 36-73 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS) - poor closing team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after allowing 5 goals or more 2 straight games are 53-18 L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the St.Louis Blues to win on the moneyline |
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10-27-18 | Bulls +5.5 v. Hawks | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Both these teams according to my power rankings are fairly evenly matched, with an obligatory 3 to 4 point home court advantage thrown in, we have an edge on the line in what under most circumstances should result in a closely contested affair.This makes getting points golden in my humble opinion. Look for both teams to continue to struggle defensively and for both sides to center their attack around their perspective young stars, Chicago's Wendell Carter Jr., the team's first-round pick from Duke, and Atlanta's Trae Young. The difference maker tonight however, Im betting comes on the back of veteran Zach LaVine, who averages 32.3 points and leads the Bulls in points. Hard fought battle here = taking points. ATLANTA is 30-49 ATS L/79 in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% or less ).CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover |
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10-27-18 | Florida International v. Western Kentucky UNDER 55 | 38-17 | Push | 0 | 107 h 55 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky avenging just 20.1 ppg in offence this season does not have the guns to compete with Florida International in a run and gun type affair, and will come into this game preparing to play a methodical conservative game. Add to that the Hilltoppers will be in a huge letdown situation that could see them start slowly after blowing a late lead last week to Old Dominion, and losing thanks to some bizarre circumstances that include penalties and failed FG attempts. Meanwhile, on the flip side FINT is a Doctor Jekyll and Hyde type of team averaging just 22.5 ppg on offence on the road this season as compared to their overall 35.9 ppg output . The Panthers have a history of playing a more conservative type of game as visitors that has resulted in a lot of lower scoring tilts. With that said, you have what I'm betting will be the makings for a low scoring sleeper. Note: FINT has gone UNDER 10 straight times as a road favourite with no combined score eclipsing the 55 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in a 43.8 ppg. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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10-27-18 | BC v. Saskatchewan -3 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 83 h 31 m | Show | |
BC comes into this game on fire having won three straight games, but Im betting their run ends here today vs a Saskatchewan side that has won 4 of their L/5 overall, and that matches up well against the Lions according to my head to head power rankings. Saskatchewan already went into BC and took out the Lions earlier this season 24-21 and smashed BC last year at home by DDs. I know the Lions have revenge on board, but you don't always get what you want as Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones can tell you. BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. CFL Home teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) - after allowing 275 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 8.1 or more yards/play in their previous game are 31-7 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sask Roughriders to cover |
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10-27-18 | Tulane v. Tulsa +1 | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Tulane since they upset and beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad, ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season. CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Tulsa to cover |
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10-27-18 | Kentucky v. Missouri -7 | 15-14 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 3 m | Show | |
The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock the key production manufacturer and ranks third in the conference as a passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers No. 35 ranked rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season. Play on Missouri to cover |
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10-27-18 | South Florida +7.5 v. Houston | 36-57 | Loss | -125 | 81 h 7 m | Show | |
South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping accolades on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play o South Florida to cover |
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10-27-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion +4 | 51-17 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 7 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Old Dominion to cover |
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10-27-18 | Iowa v. Penn State -6 | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 56 h 7 m | Show | |
Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are 11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game. The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover. By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last 3 seasons. Play on Penn State to cover |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. CFB team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. Play on Illinois to cover |
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10-27-18 | TCU v. Kansas +14 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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10-27-18 | UMass -4.5 v. Connecticut | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
The Huskies' defense has allowed 651.4 yards per game through Week 8, which ranks No. 129 in college football and Im betting a Minutemen offence that have scored 33.4 points per game this season have the edge here this rainy afternoon.
CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Umass to cover |
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10-27-18 | Army +1 v. Eastern Michigan | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point running attack . It must be noted that the Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’ key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) . ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Army to cover |
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10-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas +1.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 45 m | Show | |
Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games. Mason is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest +3 v. Louisville | 56-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just 20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game. I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | 41-10 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0 run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make a game of this. UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more. CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate. Play on UCLA to cover |
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10-26-18 | Wizards -5 v. Kings | 112-116 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
The Kings won last time out and played good defence in a winning 97-92 effort vs Memphis, but previous to that the Kings allowed their first four opponents to average 129.5 points . Meanwhile, the visiting Washington Wizards are playing all out take no prisoners run and gun basketball, and have an edge playing that type of ball vs a team like Sacramento according to my power rankings. It looks like a laying a little lumber on the road, here in the early part of the season, is worth the roll, considering how wide open a lot of NBA games have been this season. This league like a lot of others is changing towards high scoring entertainment. Key word entertainment, and I must make myself aware of this and think and reaches my handicapping techniques on the fly. Used to be a time when laying lumber with a team with the Wizards would not be a option for me, but now, at least for now, until the smoke clears, and a steady stream of stats becomes accessible and plausible I'm saying Lay it folks. Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 33-1SU and 17-0 L/3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 12.9 ppg. NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox +146 v. Dodgers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
World Series - Game 3 - Best of 7 - BOS Leads 2-0 The Dodgers are a good team, but backing a great team that looks like it has been on a mission from a higher power all season long, at this price is just to good to pass up . The BoSox are 9-2 this October, and todays starter Porcello has been on the hill for four of those Red Sox wins and gets my support to get the BoSox one step closer to the promised land. BOSTON is 10-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Buehler whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. PORCELLO BoSox starter is 20-6 against the money line vs. poor base running teams like the Dodgers- averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. PORCELLO is 9-0 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record LA DODGERS are 6-12 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) this season.BOSTON is 18-4 against the money line in an inter-league game this season. MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games are 47-17 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 47-17 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Red Sox |
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10-26-18 | Indiana v. Minnesota +2.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show | |
This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game . Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. INDIANA is 2-9 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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10-26-18 | Jets -1.5 v. Red Wings | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
The very physical Winnipeg Jets will be a little cranky after a 4-2 home loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs at home the other night, and will now be ready to take their frustrations out a rebuilding Red Wings team. The Red Wings have not enjoyed home ice advantage this season and are 0-2-1 at Little Caesar’s Arena . From a ATS perspective they have also been ugly bets failing to cash 8 of 9 times including 0-3 ATS as hosts. This is not a good opportunity for this young team to try to break out of their funk, and instead a lesson in NHL hockey analytics could well be at hand. Play on the Winnipeg Jets on the -1.5 puck -line |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 57 m | Show | |
Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11 in October games as the coach of MIAMI. Richt is also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons. Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this and get us a cover. Play on Boston College to cover |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 58 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on LA Tech to cover |
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10-25-18 | Nuggets -3 v. Lakers | 114-121 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets are playing top tier basketball to start their season, as is evident by their 4-0 record behind a defence that is allowing just 99.8 ppg. The Nuggets are just one of two teams keeping opponents under the century mark the other is the Celtics. So needless to say they deserve our respect, and the lines makers agree with the obvious assessments. Meanwhile, the Lakers look disorientated and banged up recording a 1-3 record, after getting their first win vs the Suns last time out. The Nuggets have already won at Staples Center this season, recording a 107-98 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Oct. 17. They followed that win up by sweeping a three-game homestand, including a middle game victory against the Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA champions. I know LeBron James is a dangerous component to have to face in enemy territory but in their current form the Nuggets looks capable of doing so in a positive fashion. Im not a big proponent of road chalk, at above 3.5 points , but this line looks beatable and thus Ill recommend we take the matchup edge and lay the short lumber. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 38-12 ATS L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBAHome underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 SU L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate SU with he point differential clicking in at 5.1 ppg. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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10-25-18 | Rangers v. Blackhawks -145 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off wins, but I like the Blackhawks at home tonight as the Hawks seem to reserve their best efforts for lower tier teams as is evident by 16-2 ATS L/18 record when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.The Blackhawks cashed both meetings last season and another winning ticket Im betting is just a few hours aways vs the current rebuilding version of the NY Rangers. Play on the Chicago Blackhawks to win on the moneyline |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +9.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show | |
These two teams are vying for first place in the Sunbelt eastern division. Appalachian State has for a long time had a respected football program, and right now their on the fast track for a decent bowl invitation. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern despite of not getting the same accolades is no pushover and just like their opponents only have one loss on the season. Georgia Southern lost to power house Alabama, and Appalachian State to Penn State in OT. What Im betting happens tonight, is that Georgia Southern will use their No. 5 overall ground game that cranks out 276 RYPG average to hammer away all night on App States defense , while the absence of the Mountaineers top tier RB Jason Moore will be felt as they won't be able to respond with the same type of option attack. I don't know if Georgia Southern can come out of this with a win, but they will make a game of it here on their own home turf. Thus making getting points golden opportunity to cash a ticket.Lunsford is a perfect 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of GA SOUTHERN. Play on Georgia Southern to cover |
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10-25-18 | Ball State v. Ohio -10.5 | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Both these teams are in 3rd place in their MAC divisions, but Ohio according to my rankings is the much better team, especially here on their own home field where they have averaged 48.3 ppg behind an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Ball State is scoring an average of just 16.7 ppg on the road and just don't have the guns to compete here 9 out of 10 times. With that said, those look like viable odds for me to sink my teeth into . Also Ball State D is going down hill fast as they have allowed seasons highs in yards allowed in 4 of their L/5 overall, not a good omen coming in against this type of opponent.Neu is 0-6 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BALL ST ( Ball State 15.7 Opp 41.7) I know the line looks like a hook attempt here by the lines makers, but their value right uo and into the 13.5 point range according to my projections so I feel confident of laying odd numbered lumber here. Play on Ohio to cover |
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10-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings +3 | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies are off a dismal season , garnering 60 losses , but with the often injured Conely back in the lineup they looked good in their two-game Western swing pulling off a a 92-84 upset victory at Utah on Monday night. Despite of the Grizzlies impressive win, Im not going to get to caught up in that early season performance, and instead focus on their overall makeup. Yes, the Grizzlies have some talent, but their are some flaws as well, as was thecae in a ugly DD loss to Indian in their season opener, and Im not ready to accept them as road favs just yet, especially vs a under rated Sacramento team that deserves respect after taking out Oklahoma City 131-120 in their 3rd game of the season. Look for former Grizzlies castoff veteran Zach Randolph to be pumped to play his old team today and show them that he still has some gas left in the tank. I like the Kings to cover here and won't be surprised if they grab a SU win. MEMPHIS is 18-34 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 31-14 ATS L/45 in home games versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting 30 or more free throws/game. NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 15+ losses in last 20 games are 9-33 L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors with a a point differential clicking at 7 ppg. NBA Favorites (MEMPHIS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento to cover |
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10-24-18 | Lightning -123 v. Avalanche | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado has been playing well and are on a 3 game win streak, but after coming home tonight off a gruelling 4 game road trip, they could be find themselves in a letdown spot vs a a top tier Stanley Cup contender, who seems to bring their A game when playing up trending teams like this. TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS against good defensive teams - allowing 2.55 or less goals/game over the last 2seasons .TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS against excellent starting goalies - saving 93% or more of shots against over the last 2 seasons . TAMPA BAY is 18-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning to win |
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10-24-18 | Knicks +8.5 v. Heat | 87-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Tonight we have two banged up teams with a boatload full of injuries. From a matchup perspective from who is expected to play tonight, I like the Knicks group to be able to cover the number behind leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. (27.0), and very under rated Knicks center Enes Kanter who is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 12.3 rebounds), and speedy point guard Trey Burke who leads the Knicks in assists (5.3) and ranks third in scoring (13.3). NYK have covered 3 of their L/4 meetings in Miami and get the nod again in this spot. NBA ome favorites (MIAMI) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 30-60 ATS L/22 seasons. NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - terrible shooting team (41.5% or less ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 TO's or more ) are 35-85 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors with he average point differential clicking in at 5.8 ppg. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Atlanta and their high-scoring rookie Trae Young prepare to play their first home game of the season at State Farm Arena when the Atlanta Hawks host the Dallas Mavericks this Wednesday. The Mavericks (2-1) have won two straight games, with rookie Luka Doncic averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, but things won't come so easily here on the road vs a Hawks team that owns a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Mavericks. I know both sides have different cogs in their line now, but my early season power rankings suggest the Hawks must not be underestimated on their own home floor. Both have taken part in some high scoring affairs as has been common place earlier this season, but from a stats chart I keep on possession time/pace and shot percentage performance I like the Hawks in this spot. Dallas : PTS/G: 118.3 (9th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.0 (25th of 30) SRS: -13.63 (28th of 30) Pace: 100.2 (20th of 30) Off Rtg: 118.1 (4th of 30) Def Rtg: 121.8 (28th of 30) Atlanta : PTS/G: 119.0 (6th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.7 (26th of 30) SRS: -10.14 (26th of 30) Pace: 108.4 (1st of 30) Off Rtg: 109.8 (16th of 30) Def Rtg: 113.1 (20th of 30) DALLAS is 2-12 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons DALLAS is 2-12 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 8-19 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion are for bettors. NBAteam vs the money line (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games are 3-24 L/22 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 107 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA) and Boston’s Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) start Game 1 No doubt that these are two top quality pitcher, but this season both pitchers went over the total more often then under. Also the Dodgers Kershaw owns a career postseason ERA is 4.09. Kershaw top pitch the fastball has seen batters register a .292 BA during his current campaign , showing us he is not the same pitcher he once was. Thats not a good omen for him vs one of MLBs best fast ball hitting teams. KERSHAW is 9-2 OVER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Sale the BoSox starter has not been in top form for a while now, and allowed 2 runs in 4 innings of baseball his last time out vs Houston and is dealing with s stomach ailment of some type that might be effecting him. The Dodgers are no pushovers and they can light up the best of hurlers. SALE is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 10.4 rpg going on the board. MLB (LA DODGERS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a top level AL starting pitcher (ERA 3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or more ), with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 45-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-23-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are looking explosive out of the gate to start their season, and are off back to back DD blowout wins. They have also been money makers for their backers since late last season cashing 14 of their L/16 games overall and have been good bets at home cashing 11 of their L/14 ( NO 115 Opp 107.1) Needless to say this an explosive team that must be respected. Meanwhile, the Clippers 2-1 after starting their season with three straight home games now go on the road and I'm betting won't find the bayou atmosphere so welcoming. I admit the Clippers have looked cohesive despite of going through a retooling process , and can't be discounted as viable opponent, but Im betting they will be over matched here vs a Pelicans team that plays a break neck pace. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 17-86 L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% SU with the average point differential clicking in at 9.1 ppg. Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover |
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10-23-18 | Sharks v. Predators -125 | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Pekka Rhinne the Predators star goalie is out, and thats why their is value on this line, but Im betting his replacement and back up goalie Saros, who has not lost a game yet this season is solid backstop to back. He has a 1.54 GAA and .945 save percentage and looks to be every bit the goalie Rhinne is and maybe even better. The Predators have won five straight, outscoring their opponents 20-7. They presently have the best record and goal differential (+12) in the NHL and must be respected on their own home ice . San Jose has lost 12 of their L/13 visits to this Arena, and are fade material this type of talented team that matches up very well against them. Play on the Nashville Predators to win on the moneyline |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
The 1-5 New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and cover . NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.
Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover |
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10-22-18 | Hornets v. Raptors UNDER 226 | 106-127 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops. Focusing on these two teams the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here. Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities. From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Rockets v. Clippers +3 | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a back to back situation for the Rockets after a physically gruelling battle that resulted in a win vs the LA Lakers last night , and they could easily find themselves deflated and tired as they deal with a under rated LA Clippers group that is off a win vs Oklahoma City on the 19th.
The Rockets Chris Paul in his return to LA found himself in a fight with Rajon Rondo, as that game vs LeBron James Lakers was pretty intense for a regular season tilt. With that said , I now feel the Clippers have an edge here on their own home floor. Rockets are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Pacific.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The Rockets have failed to cover 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +4 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
These 2-0 teams will go head to head tonight in the mile high city, with Denver Im betting having an edge on the line and could easily pullout the SU upset. Golden State has already played hard fought games vs Oklahoma State and Utah, and could have problems up here in the thin air of the Rockies as this game progresses after those two previous physical battles. I know Denver played last night, but their a very well conditioned team, and won't have any problems keeping up here . GOLDEN STATE is 29-42 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets beat the two-time champs twice last year, and have beaten Golden State five times in the Steve Kerr era. Several Warriors have a history of struggling at Denver, including Durant, who has made just 36 of 106 (34.0 percent) 3-pointers in 19 career games at Denver, and Klay Thompson, who has never score more than 21 points in any of his 11 visits to the Pepsi Center. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 34-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% SU conversion rate making this viable trend when looking at an ATS edge. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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10-21-18 | Flames v. Rangers +127 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The Rangers might be in a rebuilding year, but their proving themselves a pretty feisty group, and their four losses have been by two goals or fewer. They also upset the Avs at home last week, and lost 3-2 to the defending Stanley cup champs in their followup. New HC Dave Quinn has the Rangers playing a strict system, and it looks very much like he has the team buying into it, making them a dangerous opponent for a Calgary team, playing on tired legs after traveling from West to East after a hard fought loss to the Predators on Friday night 5-3. NYR Lundqvist is 8-3-0 in 11 career games against the Flames. Calgary starting backstop Smith is 5-12-2 in 20 career appearances against the Rangers. Rangers are 6-0 L/6 at home in this series. Play on the NY Rangers to win on the moneyline |
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10-21-18 | Lightning -140 v. Blackhawks | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bolts lost in OT last time out in Minnesota to the Wild after blowing. 3-1 lead and will now be primed for redemption in their followup game. That defeat had broken a 3 game win streak. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks also played last night, and took 4-1 victory vs the Columbus Blue Jackets. But are not of the same talent level as the Bolts, and are at a disadvantage vs a side that does not taking losing lightly especially in the manner they lost last nights tilt. |
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10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers +10 | 39-10 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a long time rivalry that has seem the 49ers cash 5 straight times. I know the Rams are the better overall team, but Im expecting this to be a lot closer than the lines makers estimate according to my own head to head power ranking stats. It must be noted that perfect 6-0 NFL chalk like the LA Rams are 1-7 ATS in Game Seven of the season over the last nine campaigns. The Rams are 0-8 ATS off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average which happened last week. LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game . The Rams are 0-6 ATS on the road facing an opponent that is off two con-secutive losses like SF. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 51 m | Show | |
New Orleans explosive offence will Im betting not be so explosive this week against a staunch Baltimore D off a shutout last time out vs the Tennessee Titans by a 21-0 count. In fact the Ravens D has allowed a total of 40 points in their L/4 games (10 ppg). Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings. NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS L/27 against AFC North division opponents.NEW ORLEANS is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. HC Payton Payton is 3-12 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games and is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 24-1 SU with the average point differential of 9.4 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 33 m | Show | |
The much improved Chicago Bears go against a New England Pats team that could find themselves in an emotional letdown spot after a behemoth back forth battle with the KC Chiefs last Sunday night that saw them win on a late FG 43-40. I know Tom Brady and company are explosive offensively but the Bears have held opponents to 19.2 ppg this season and must be respected as home dogs in their current form. I know the Bears last time out, but it must be noted that Chicago is 11-2 ATS at home against AFC East opposition coming off a victory, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss. Today Im betting the difference maker will come via the Bears ground attack that averaged 4.4 ypc vs a shaky Pats D, that is allowing 4.5 ypc. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% for conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 7 m | Show | |
Tampa Bays defence has been purged in back to back games, giving up a total of 80 points ,but the Browns are not the type of team that can take advantage of their wobbly defence. The Browns have scored 18 points or less in 3 of their 6 games, and have averaged 13 ppg in their L/2 trips to the gridiron. On the other side of the ball the Browns are a physical group that are hard to play against and the Bucs Im betting have a hard time doing dome offensive damage here in this spot. I know the Buccaneers have gone over in 5 straight but because of this the total of this tilt is overinflated. It must be noted that teams like the Bucs that have allowed at least 80 combined points their last two games are a long term 28-64-1 UNDER dating back to the 2010 season with the average combined score clicking in 42.5 ppg. Cleveland was blasted last Tim out by the Chargers,(38-14) but are 12-3 L/15 UNDER off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. Cleveland is 4-13 UNDER vs NFC South. The L/4 meetings in this series have seen a combined 29.3 ppg scored on average. NFL Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games are 7-28 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins UNDER 47 | 32-21 | Loss | -114 | 66 h 33 m | Show | |
Osweiler, who completed 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards is the expected starter here again this week for the Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the big numbers because there was huge after the catch numbers posted and that kind of performance and yards activity is truly odd. The Fins surprised the Bears and took a 31-28 win, also thanks to turnovers something this Dolphins teams not really built for over the long haul and Im betting they will fall back down to earth in their followup against the Lions this week. Meanwhile, the Lions are well rested off a bye week and many might expect them to fly out of the gate here, but in the past they have been more methodical and conservative in their road games, and are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a road favorite when the total is more than 43. the Lions are also 0-5 UNDER L/5 after a bye. The Lions also take on a a Dolphins defense that has been effective in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs, something the Lions have excelled at this season.If these results continue to trend this way we have a high probability of wiping a score off the board , which in turn will help keep this total combined score on the low side of the number. NFL Home teams against the total (MIAMI) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 33-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 14 m | Show | |
Minnesota's QB Cousins is ranked fifth in the league in passing, and has 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. His 71.2 completion percentage is third in the league and he's 10th in passer rating at 102.7. I'm betting he and his Vikings do some extensive damage today vs a NY Jets Defence, that allowed 428 yards off offence in a 42-34 loss to the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Jets behind the capable arm of former USC QB Darnold and a two pronged running attack of running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell, who are helping the Jets churn out an average of 130.5 yards rushing will respond in kind and not be easily slowed down. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed. The Vikings are 7-0-1 OVER off a game as a favorite in which they threw at least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average which was the case in a 27-17 win vs Arizona last week. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 51-19 OVER L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5.5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
The Panthers are off a dismal game last time out vs the Redskins, but they have shown a lot of inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons despite of being a talented group, and now Im betting they rebound. It must be noted Carolina is a perfect 10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss as a visitor, covering by an average of 16 ppg and 21-3 ATS overall off a road loss. Also in that last game, they got away from their strength which is the run game. But the Panthers have proven resilient after those types of off efforts going a bankroll expanding 15-0 ATS on a natural surface off away loss when their ground attack gained less than 185 yards and they are averaging more than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. From. A league wide data base NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 36-12 ATS in their followup rebound since 1983. Meanwhile, the Eagles despite of winning and playing better of late, are a team that has shown a propensity to fail against teams like Carolina who are struggling defensively at least from a ATS perspective, as they 0-8 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins +3 | 32-21 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
The Dolphins, who are 4-2 and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East, will be hosting a Lions defense that has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Which in my humble betting opinion does not make the Lions very reliable road favs in this spot according to statistical algorithms. The key Defensive lapses have come against opposition ground attacks, as the Lions rank 30th against the run, giving up 145.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This Im betting favours Fins running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake who are proving them selves viable cogs in thisDolphin offensive scheme. I know super millionaire QB Matt Stafford is a t the helm of a offence that scores bunches, but Miami is efficient in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs and could easily stop the Lions on key situations as they game progresses and making them a strong choice getting points as home dogs. MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 9-26 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. .Note:The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS SU on a natural surface when they are off a FG-plus win in which they threw at least one interception and they are facing a team that has thrown the ball on 56%-plus of their plays season-to-date. Play on Miami Dolphins to cover |
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10-21-18 | Titans v. Chargers -6.5 | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
Wembley Stadium - London, England Hate to be completely simplistic with my approach to this game, but what we have here is a team in the Chargers currently hitting on all cylinders and off three straight wins and other team the Titans on a two game losing streak, behind a offence that was shutout last week, and that has put 9, 12 points on the board in 2 of their previous three games. The Titans QB Mariota who had shown so much promise in the past has slowly begun to fizzle behind HC Vrabels conservative methodical system, and looks at times disinterested and just going through the motions. Thats not a good mind set to be in when going against an explosive up trending team like the Chargers. LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992.TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. TENNESSEE is 15-35 ATS L/50 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game Tennessee is 0-15 ATS L/15 vs a side like the Chargers that has won each of their last two games by at least six points and covered them both. San Diego is 16-0 ATS L/16 on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent like the Titans that has averaged more than one turnover per game and less than 70% completions and had suffered a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games. Play on San Diego Chargers to cover |
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10-20-18 | Arizona +8 v. UCLA | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 63 h 51 m | Show | |
UCLA finally got a win last week, after starting their season at 0-5. They beat what looked to be a sleepy California Bears team who was overlooking them by a a 37-7 count. Now they are magically being made more than TD favorite at home , in part because the hobbling and limping Khalil Tate is out with an ankle injury . Which in my opinion contrary to mainstream thought is actually a good thing. Better to have a 100% healthy 2nd string QB ( Rodriguez) than a banged up pivot who depends on his mobility to to look as good as he does.Rodriguez, the son of former Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez, completed 20 of 38 passes for 226 yards coming off the bench vs Utah last week and a completed touchdown and should be even more fluent this week. It must be noted that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons so they are from viable chalk bets . UCLA is also just 2-10 ATS in games when coming off a victory over the last three years and are also a ugly 0-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the last four seasons. UCLA is 3-13 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992. These are some nasty numbers, and Im still not sold on Chip Kelleys Bruins quite yet, and feel its to soon to be laying TD or more chalk in a conference game vs a team that matches up well against them according to my power rankings. Play on Arizona to cover |
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10-20-18 | Bruins -154 v. Canucks | 1-2 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
The Bruins despite of two straight losses are a strong veteran team that deserves a lot of respect,.Meanwhile, the Canucks despite of playing strong hockey early this season are systems team, that also deserves respect for their hard work but are just out talented here by a two way team that is desperate for a win . With that said, take this boatload full of top tier veteran group to backup their redemption process. Play on the Boston Bruins to win |
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10-20-18 | Predators -125 v. Oilers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The powerful Predators played last night, and took a 5-3 win vs Calgary, so scheduling does not give them an edge on that front, but its early in the season, and they will be fresher than many might think as their talent and conditioning is superior to the Oilers. Yes , the Oilers do have the league best player in McDavid, but in the past that has not been a guarantee for anything. With that said, look for the Preds to find a way to get a win, and make it 11 straight wins in this series vs the Oilers. Play on the Nashville Preds to win |
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10-20-18 | Wolves v. Mavs +3 | 136-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Tonight Dallas has their home opener against a very good Minnesota team, but Im betting they will be up to the task off being very competitive and getting us the cover even though their without Harrison Barnes. I'm also not reading to much into their loss vs the Suns in their opener as Phoenix is a much better team than people realize at this point in the season. I also expect newly acquired Euro star Doncic to be primed to play a big game in front of Mark Cuban and the Mavs fans tonight . This top tier player is acclimating much faster to the NBAs physical game than I anticipated and is really impressive and can easily control a games tempo. Look for his teammates and fans to feed off his energy tonight and make this an electric environment. DALLAS is 14-4 ATS in home games against Northwest division opponents.DALLAS is 29-15 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Carlisle is 30-12 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +109 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Tied 3-3 Brewers start Jhoulys Chacin tonight in the a sudden death Game 7 battle . The righty has allowed only one run over 10 1/3 innings of his first two career postseason starts, and and his and his strong bullpen get my supporter. CHACIN is 10-4 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. (Team's Record) MILWAUKEE is 31-11 against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more this season. Meanwhile, Buehler the Dodgers starter is 4-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record).BUEHLER is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 0.786. Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline |
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10-20-18 | Pistons -3.5 v. Bulls | 118-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
The line has moved off the opener of -2.5 and and rightly so and Im betting we have value here backing the new small ball Detroit Pistons right up to -4. The Pistons won their first game of the season against the Brooklyn Nets 103-100 behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond despite of being a little short handed with two starters out. The Pistons found a way to hold the fort and win was a positive sign in the midst of plenty of teachable moments, Casey told reporters Thursday. Pistons now coached by Dwane Casey are a fast team, that works the inside well and hold key matchup problems for teams like the Chicago Bulls that are off a 127-108 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Note NBA Road favorites (DETROIT) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 8.5 ppg. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 81 h 51 m | Show | |
Oregon is coming off a huge 30-27 OT win vs Washington last week, and now in a away game will be in a huge emotional letdown situation against a Washington State team that has the guns to take them out here at home. Note: Washington State is explosive passing team with its "Air Raid" offense under Leach. East Carolina graduate transfer Gardner Minshew is the top passer in the Pac-12 (averaging 403.7 yards a game) while completing 68.7 percent of his passes (215 of 313) with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Strap on you jock straps fellas, this ride is going to get bumpy for the incoming Ducks. Cougars have won 10 straight at home dating back to last season, and have covered 8 straight in this series, and Im betting both streaks stay intact after the final whistle blows here tonight. Play on the Washington State Cougars |
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10-20-18 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -4.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 38 m | Show | |
Old Dominion has done one thing right this season, and that is beat Virginia Tech. Other than that this team is completely inept and look like they are still dealing with the massive emotional hangover of that bizarre win. They put everything they had into that game, and now theirs nothing left in the tank. The Monarchs have lost two straight by DDs and took it on the chin last week, 42-20 vs Marshall, and gave up a pile of yards which does not set up well for them coming into this game as they are 0-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1999. OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Play on Western Kentucky to cover |
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10-20-18 | Mississippi State +7 v. LSU | 3-19 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
Huge letdown situation for the LSU tigers after upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs last week , which puts them at a disadvantage vs a Mississippi State that can light the board in a hurry. Add to that the Tigers have Sabans Alabama on board for next week, and you can see taking points here with a under appreciated opponent is a viable wagering opportunity. Miss State is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings, and have a good read on HC Oregeron as is evident by last seasons 37-7 beatdown of this same LSU program. LSU is 3-13 ATS in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. CFB road team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a home win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miss State to cover |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | 117-113 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Raptors come into this game in a letdown situation as they visit the Washington Wizards Saturday night after a 113-101 win over the preseason Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics. They will now be at a disadvantage vs a Washington side off a loss in their home opener to Miami 113-112 and that will now be out looking for redemption against what could be an Eastern Conference front runner. Actually Torontos top tier projections centre on whether the often injured Kawhi Leonard remains healthy enough to stay in the lineup . He has missed an average of 30% of his games during his career and already missed to play off runs. Tonight Im betting for Wizards star Bradely Beal to lead the way for the Wizards . He has thrived vs the Raptorsin the recent past and had 38 points in their first meeting of the season last year and two more 30-plus nights in the playoffs.Saturday's game is a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference first-round playoff series in which the Raptors eliminated the Wizards in six games.REVENGE on board for the home team. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-20-18 | Canadiens -120 v. Senators | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Montreal is on a 3 game winning streak, and looking pretty good in their current form behind a now healthy Carey Price who owns a 2-1-1 record with a 2.24 goals against average and .912 save percentage, giving the Canadiens (4-1-1) record on the season. Meanwhile, Ottawa despite of some upsets and a current 2 game win streak and playing well early this season, are turning the puck over a little bit to much for my liking and are showing some negative characteristics . I also feel they don't have the talent to continue at this rate, and when looking at individual matchups the Habs actually have better over all talent and with their goalie Price in good form I like them in this spot. OTTAWA is 2-10 ATS in home games after a blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 3 seasons. They beat Dallas 4-1 last time out. Play on Montreal to win on the moneyline |
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10-20-18 | Montreal +4.5 v. Toronto | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
These two teams look pretty evenly matched in their current losing forms, as both display ugly 3-12 SU records. Montreal does however matchup well vs the Argos and won their L/ meeting. Despite of Toronto having revenge on board, the Als from a statistical standpoint deserves my backing a FG or more. TORONTO is 1-8 ATS versus mistake prone teams - 88+ penalty yards per game - after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons. CFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MONTREAL) - with a poor passing D - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game are 26-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.TORONTO is 2-10 ATS versus poor passing defenses - allowing 300 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. CFL team vs SU (TORONTO) - with a struggling defense - allowing 7.5 or more yards/play, after allowing 7.6 or more yards/play in their previous game 3-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. Play on the Montreal Als to cover |
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10-20-18 | NC State +17 v. Clemson | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 43 m | Show | |
These two teams Im betting will embark on a all out war this week that favours the dog getting a boatload full of points .Don't get me wrong Clemson is a great team and Death Valley is a nasty place to visit if your an opposing football program, but NC State is highly under rated and more than capable of actually pulling off the upset this week. The last two meetings in this series were won by the Tigers by 7 point counts and another one score game is a high probability event that makes this a viable wager in this spot. Both these teams are well rested off a bye week, but in the recent past that has not been a recipe for success from a spread perspective for the Tigers as they have failed to cover 4 straight times. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 19-2 ATS off a bye, vs conference foes and have covered 15 of 16 when made underdogs. NC State has covered 9 straight ATS as 2 TD or more dogs. NC State is also 12-2 ATS as DD underdogs coming off a SU win. NC STATE is 6-0 ATS after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons. CLEMSON has failed to cover 19 of their L/27 after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and 13-29 ATS L/42 after 3 more straight conference wins. CFBroad team (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on NC State to cover |
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10-20-18 | Coastal Carolina v. UMass -2.5 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 55 m | Show | |
There is no doubt that Umass can put points on the board in bunches as is evident by 49, 42, 42, explosions in their L/3 games. They won one of those games, and lost the other two vs teams that are also explosive offensively. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina despite improvement over last season, just don't have the guns to hang with this type of offence, and also own a inconsistent defence that has allowed 42 points in back to back games.Look for Umass to bomb away on Coastal Carolina and for the visitors to punch back, but Im betting the bigger and more frequent shots will come from UMass. Knockout in the 4th quarter. CFB home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-1 L/10 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors SU with the average margin of victory differential coming by 17.9 ppg. UMass to cover |
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10-20-18 | Wake Forest v. Florida State UNDER 59 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
Wake Forest after an embarrassing loss to Clemson before their bye week, allowed 63 points and scored just 3 points in a ugly loss. Since that game a rallying call to tighten up their D, has been key to any conversations involving the Deacons, and today I expect they enter this tilt with an conservative mindset. Meanwhile,Florida State is always methodical in their approach to games, and will make sure this game is played on their terms. Look for both teams to push the ball a lot on the ground today via their rush games, and for the clock to get milked like a Hershey cow.Only one of Seminoles games has eclipsed this total this season, and Im betting the combined score will not breach this Total. Note: Wake Forest has not had a scoring TD since 2006 here in the land of the Seminoles. FSU Taggart is 18-7 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score in those tilts ringing in at 52.5 ppg. FLORIDA ST L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 44 ppg go on the board. WAKE FOREST L/22 in road games after a bye week have seen a combined average of 54.4 ppg go on the board. CFB Road teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (WAKE FOREST) - with a poor defense - allowing 400 or more total yards/game, after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 64-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-20-18 | Bowling Green v. Ohio -16.5 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 74 h 35 m | Show | |
Ohio has played a tough schedule, with hard luck losses to two very good football teams Cincinnati U and N.Illinois last week. On both occasions they blew late leads, and if it were not for those heart breaking defeats they would be 5-1 on the season, with Virginia being the only team to surprisingly manhandle them 45-31. HC Solich is a solid coach and he now has the opportunity to get his troops back in a winning frame of mind .With that said, look for this explosive Bobcats group on their own home field to now take out their frustrations on a very over matched in disarray Bowling Green team that fired their coach this week. Note: Bowling Green is allowing 47.76 ppg overall this season and a even uglier 57.7 ppg on the road. BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 seasons. BG 21.9 Opponent 51.7 for a +28.8 point differential. Play on Ohio to cover |