Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-23 | Duke v. Florida State OVER 49.5 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show | |
Florida State enters this tilt having eclipsed the 30 point plateau in offensive production in 12 straight games, and is currently averaging 42.2 ppg overall in offense including 48.7 ppg in 3 road games. On the flip-side Duke, is averaging 31.2 ppg on offense and scored 41 points in their lone road game and are capable of decent offensive output even against viable Ds. I know both these teams have also displayed strong defenses, but as is evident by the line that favors FSU by 14 or more points, the linesmakers are expecting the Seminoles to do some scoring and run away with this game, and in that evident you can bet that Duke will open up their attack and speed their snap count up which will result in an even more wide open type of affair than many might expect. DUKE vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. FLORIDA ST vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 52.4 ppg scored.FLORIDA ST in their L/116 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game have seen a combined average of 53.1 ppg scored. CFBl teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (DUKE) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 67-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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10-21-23 | Army +31.5 v. LSU | 0-62 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Army (2-4) fell at home to Troy last Saturday, 19-0. It was the first time that Army was shutout at home at Michie Stadium since 2003 and you can bet this fearless group will be ready to bounce back this week with a much better showing. Note:ARMY is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points . Meanwhile,LSU (5-2) enters with the second-best total offense in the nation averaging 550.4 yards per game and also ranking third in points per game (45.3) but could easily be caught looking ahead to their battle against Alabama up next. : Military schools that are dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus the SEC dating back more than 40 seasons. Monken is 15-5 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of ARMY. ARMY is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARMY is 25-9 ATS after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992. Play on Army to cover |
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10-21-23 | TCU +6.5 v. Kansas State | 3-41 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 33 m | Show | |
TCU is 11-2 in Big 12 regular-season games under HC Dykes., including are 7-1 in road contests . The Oct. 7 loss at Iowa State snapped a seven-game road winning streak that was tied for second-longest in the nation so thye are side to be respected when going on the road especially when getting points.Last year's 38-28 win in Fort Worth by KState snapped a three-game losing streak to the Wildcats. But now you can bet Dykes and company have revenge on board, and I wont be surprised if they pull off the SU victory behind their uptrending QB redshirt freshman Josh Hoover who looked excellent and poised vs BYU last week in a big 44-11 DD win. Take the points with TCU |
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10-21-23 | Hawaii -1.5 v. New Mexico | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Hawaii lost a 41-34 game at the hands of San Diego State last Saturday. Hawaii gained 102 more yards on the day than their opponent and still lost but are getting more cohesive as this season progresses. QB Brayden Schager, who threw for 427 yards and three touchdown looks to have a great deal of momentum on hiss ides and deserves respect here in this spot play. CFB home team vs. the money line (NEW MEXICO) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 4-23 L/31 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. ( LATE STEAM - Hawaii to cover |
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10-21-23 | Texas v. Houston +23.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas after a loss to Oklahoma last time out, enter into this frey with extra rest . Im sure the Longhorns are still however in a letdown mode after that heart breaking loss, and that could easily hamper them against an explosive opponent that has lots of back door capabilities. TEXAS is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. TEXAS is also 0-4 ATS L/4 after taking on the Sooners. TEXAS is 1-5 ATS L/6 off a rest/ bye week. Sarkisian is 4-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS has also failed to cover as away favs of more than 12 points in 6 of their L/7 opportunities. , Houston is 8-0 ATS L/8 as dogs of more than 13 points. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show | |
Ohio State has won six straight in the series and 10 of the past 11. Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-8 vs. the Buckeyes and has lost all four games in Ohio Stadium by an average of more than 11 ppg. Penn State has not won in Columbus since 2011 and Im betting they wont turn the trick here this week.More importantly I project a TD or more win by the home side. PENN ST is 3-19 ATS L/21 vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Note:The Buckeyes' pass defense is fourth (154.3) in the country. The defense is third in average points allowed (9.7) and seventh in total defense (263.5). PENN ST is 7-19 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Day is 12-2 ATS in October games as the coach of OHIO ST. .CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ) are 41-4 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in +13.7. CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for a average ppg diff of +13.3 clicking in. Play on the Ohio State to cover |
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10-20-23 | Astros +103 v. Rangers | 5-4 | Win | 103 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) takes on Rangers' lefty Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20). Houston offense, has been extremely productive Globe Life Field. The Astros are 8-1 when visiting Texas in 2023 and are averaging nine runs in the nine meetings. Houston has scored 69 runs in its past six games in Arlington and Im betting nothing changes here today.I know Texas left-hander Jordan Montgomery shut out the Astros in game 1 of this series, but the Astros offense has shown great resilience in the past, and have made adjustments on the run, and Im betting thats what they do here as they finally get to Montgomery. Note: The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season and should roll here once again in a ball park that they thrive in. Play on Houston to win |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
The Totals line (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey. It must be noted that New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a combined average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. Allen in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen Jacksonville go under in their L/4 dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-19-23 | Astros +105 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Astros starter URQUIDY is 13-3 against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) URQUIDY is 5-0 in his career when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 0.761. and gets my support here again. The Astros have scored 59 runs in their last five road games against the Texas Rangers after yesterdays 8 run and output and Im betting more explosive is on the way. TEXAS is 9-22 against the money line in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons HOUSTON is 7-1 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. HOUSTON is 16-3 against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season.HOUSTON is 30-14 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 8 runs or more are 10-33 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to win |
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10-19-23 | Flames v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 34 m | Show | |
he Sabres, who have yet to find their offensive stride but Im betting they have the talent to uptrend in a higher scoring direction. BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER in home games after winning their previous game in overtime over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 8.3 gpg scored. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (BUFFALO) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after winning their previous game in overtime are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Play over |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +4.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 57 m | Show | |
Marshall lost their 2nd straight game at Georgia State this past Saturday after starting their season at 4-0.Meanwhile James Madison continued their undefeated run at 6-0 with a huge DD win vs Georgia Southern last time out . According to my power rankings despite the slight discrepancy in records -both these sides are evenly matched, with home field advantage favoring a Marshall side that is 3-0 at home this season, and long term have cashed 60% of their L/30 home games as underdogs dating back to 2002 season. Overall Marshall has 22-8 L/30 SU at home and have won 5 straight dating back to last season as hosts including a win vs Sunbelt perennial App State. Advantage Marshall CFB home team vs. the money line (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or ,more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 30-9 ATS L/31 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Marshall to cover |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State v. UTEP +3.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
Mew Mexico State according to my projections are precarious road favs here at UTEP considering they are just. 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road. I know the Aggies (4-3) are getting alot of accolades this season, and have a top tier QB under center Pavia has a QB rating of 166.9, ranking second in CUSA and 18th in FBS., but it must be noted that Opponents are averaging 204.7 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of just 89.4 when facing UTEP. The Miners ,must not be underestimated and have momentum on their sides after a road win at Florida International last week. One key feature to UTEP is in their special teams department with their punter Sloan who registered a 64 yard punt last week, and has the ability to quickly flip field position in favor of his team. Note:UTEP is 8-1 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. UTEP is 3-0 in Wednesday regular-season contests and Im betting has a great opportunity to repeat in this spot play vs a visitor that does not have a history of respectable road performances. Play on UTEP to cover |
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10-18-23 | Astros +120 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Texas right-hander Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA regular season), who is making his first start since Sept. 12 after sustaining a major muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. Im sure Scherzer velocity will be down and rust could easily see him beaten around by a Rangers offense that could at any time explode for a boatload full of runs. Meanwhile, Astros starter Javier hasn't allowed a run in three career postseason starts. The right-hander has allowed two hits in 16 1/3 innings in those starts, including a top tier six innings no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of last year's World Series.Javier, will be making his second start of this postseason. He defeated the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, when he allowed one hit in five scoreless innings. Javier, who is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances and get my support here today. JAVIER is 10-1 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 10-1 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Team's Record) AVIER is 8-0 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record) HOUSTON is 9-0 against the money line in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. HOUSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. HOUSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-16 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on the Houston Astros to win |
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10-18-23 | Penguins v. Red Wings UNDER 6.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Both these sides have looked decent defensively and both have already registered shutouts tearly on this season.The Pens have allowed just 2 goals in their L/2 games 4-0 and 5-2 wins. While Motown is off a 4-0 shutout win. Both teams have made statements in the preseason that hedge towards them trying to be more defensive orientated and tonight Im betting we see that type of mind set in their game plans become clear. Under is 3-0-1 in Penguins last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 5-0 in Penguins last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 11-2 in Penguins last 13 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. PITTSBURGH is 16-7 UNDER in road games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 5.8 gpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 20-8 UNDER in road games against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 gpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 23-12 UNDER in road games after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average 6 gpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 16-6 UNDER in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.9 gpg scored. DETROIT is 33-19 UNDER after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 gog scored. Under is 11-2 in Red Wings last 13 vs. Metropolitan. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (DETROIT) - off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-20 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Play under |
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10-17-23 | Kings v. Jets OVER 6.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Both these teams defenses have looked less than stellar out of the gate this season with both their games eclipsing the total. The Kings have allowed 5 and 6 goals in their first two tilts (both losses at home) while the Jets have allowed 5 and 4 goals in their first two trips to the golden pond. and have gone 1-1 Note:LOS ANGELES is 6-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.2 gpg going on the score board. Over is 5-0 in Kings last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. LOS ANGELES is 13-4 OVER after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 7.3 gpg scored. ( Played Carolina last time out in 6-5 loss) Both teams offenses have also looked efficient, and tonight Im betting on more aggressive back and forth action. Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 vs. Western Conference. Over is 4-0 in Jets last 4 home games.Over is 6-1 in Jets last 7 vs. Pacific.Over is 5-1-1 in Jets last 7 vs. Western Conference. Play on the OVER |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 136 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Arizona lost game 1 of this series by a 5-3 count and Im betting they will lose this game as well vs what my power rankings suggest is the superior side. Phillies have won 17 of their L/24 overall play off games, and have now won 3 straight post season games by 2 or more runs. I know Dbacks Kely is a quality hurler, but the Phillies sometimes explosive batting order can make the best of pitchers look ordinary as was the case in game one of this series vs Zac Gallen. Also it must be noted that the Phillies pitching staff is also in top form and have not allowed more than 3 runs and 6 of their L/7 tilts. With that said, Phillies starter Nola won Game 3 of the NLDS last Wednesday, when he allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings in the Phillies' 10-2 victory. He is 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in seven career postseason starts. Momementum resides in the City of Brotherly Love. MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or more ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games and 49-30 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play on Philadelphia -1.5 runline |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -1 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS. NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said. "We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well." DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less. NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-16-23 | Red Wings -115 v. Blue Jackets | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The Red Wings are 1-1 on the season and looked good in a 6-4 win vs the Tampa Bay Bolts last time out and now have positive momentum entering this tilt vs Columbus. Columbus also split its first two games. It bounced back from a season-opening loss to Philadelphia by defeating the New York Rangers 5-3 on Saturday, but after watching replays of that game still feel the Jackets are not still a team to be respected. The Red Wings took two of three games against the Blue Jackets last season with both wins coming in Columbus. Rinse and repeat situation now on board. DETROIT is 6-1 ATS after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Blue Jackets are 8-20 in their last 28 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 14-38 in their last 52 games following a win.Blue Jackets are 14-39 in their last 53 vs. Eastern Conference.Blue Jackets are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. AtlanticNHL Road Favorites against the money line (DETROIT) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals are 27-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Detroit to win |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 102 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Previous to yesterdays 2-0 loss to the Rangers Houston smashed out 30 home runs against Texas in the 13 reg season games they played against them this season including 25 in the last seven regular season matchups in this series. Im betting they bounce back here today and continue that trend against upstart Texas bullpen that ranked 24th this season in MLB. . Previous to yesterdays muted offensive effort from the Astros they crushed the ball in the post season and accumulated 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. HOUSTON is 33-18 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined 10 rpg scored. BAKER is 20-89OVER vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season as the manager of HOUSTON. TEXAS is 11-2 OVER after shutting out their opponent this season with a combined average of 13 rpg scored. Astros starter VALDEZ is 9-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored. BOCHY is 34-17 OVER (+16.4 Units) in road games after allowing 1 run or less 2 straight games in all games with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. Play on the over MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TEXAS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, in October games are 48-21 OVER L/ 5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show | |
The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time. Bills are off a loss to the Jaguars in London last week. NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Giants to cover |
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10-15-23 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston smashed out 30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games they played against this season including 25 in the last seven matchups in this series. Im betting they continue that trend today against Montgomery and the banged up and exhausted Rangers bullpen that ranked 24th this season in MLB. . The Astros' continue to pound the ball in the post season and have accumulated 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. HOUSTON is 33-17 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined 10.5 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 37-26 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg. BAKER is 20-8 OVER vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season as the manager of HOUSTON. On the flips side, Texas ha averaged 5.3 rpg vs right handed pitchers like Verlander adn their offense has come to life recently scoring 18 runs in their L/2 games entering this tilt and must not be discounted in their ability to respond to the Astros today . TEXAS is 43-26 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. Play on the over |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | 17-21 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today. Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Patriots to cover |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +8.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 69 h 28 m | Show | |
SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season. Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Browns to cover |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | 20-37 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 10 m | Show | |
.After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense. Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). Play on Indy Colts to cover |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14 v. Dolphins | 21-42 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 58 m | Show | |
Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins UNDER 47.5 | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show | |
Im betting Carolinas game plan is to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under NFL non-division home favorites of 8 or more points like Miami is here today have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total when the offered number is 45 or more points. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting Seahawks. Trends also back the the Bengals as they own a 7-0 ATS record when coming off a SU away chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS in tilts when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just 1-10 ATS in games after allowing 7 or fewer points last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100% after a right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed 36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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10-15-23 | Saints -1.5 v. Texans | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New Orleans Saints to win |
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10-14-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Blues -107 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
The Kraken opened their season with two road losses, 4-1 to the Vegas Golden Knights and 3-0 to the Nashville Predators and are fade material in their current form. Kraken starting goalie Grubbier has played well , but struggled much of last season while recording an .895 save percentage in the regular season and is a goalie that I rank in the lower part of my power rankings. The Blues won their first game, with top tier goaltending from Binnington and deserve respect here at home on a short fav line. ST LOUIS is 42-16 ATS L/58 when playing against a sub psr team (Win Pct. 25%) or less in the first half of the season. Blues are 10-3 in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.Blues are 95-42 in their last 137 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Kraken are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Kraken are 0-5 in their last 5 road games. NHL Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (ST LOUIS) - off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival, winless on the season are 43-8 L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on St.Louis to win |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. North Carolina | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game with a 4-1 record after a loss last week to Georgia Tech, while Carolina enters at 5-0. The Canes may have fell asleep at the proverbial wheel looking forward to this game , but now Im betting they will be wide awake here vs the Heels and ready to perform. North Carolina is 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home tilt, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite. N CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992. Brown is 1-11 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of N CAROLINA. CFB road team (MIAMI) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Miami FL to cover |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
Notre Dame after a ugly effort vs a fired up Louisville Cardinal last week will be primed to get back on track vs a Trojans side that is exhibiting some weak defensive deficiencies as is evident by allowing 41 points in back to back games. What happened last week in Louisville the Irish I think was attributed to them not being able to meet the motivation factors needed after their heart breaking 17-14 loss to Ohio State the week before. USC is 5-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons NOTRE DAME is 15-4 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992. USC is 1-11 ATS in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992. USC is 1-14 ATS versus non-conference revenge, and a nasty 2-15 ATS as pups of less than 8 points and a just 2-12 ATS in non-conference road tilts. Notre Dame to cover |
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10-14-23 | Blackhawks v. Canadiens -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Habs and Blackhawks are at different levels in the rebuilding zone. The Hawks are almost completely starting from scratch like a expansion team, while the Canadiens are improving quickly and incorporating a strong culture that is helping with their cohesiveness. With Tyler Hall out tonight for the Blackhawks Im betting their power play which is already 0-7 this season to suffer greatly and for their lack of fire power to be their demise tonight at the Molson Center. NHL Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (MONTREAL) - off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival, winless on the season are 43-8 L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play on the Canadiens to win |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
The Wildcats were upset last week in Stillwater against Oklahoma State but will now in a big bounce back situation vs Texas Tech this week. I know Texas Tech is off a big win last time out vs Baylor . Note:. K-State is 11-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS defeat. and 11-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, .Texas Tech is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series and are fade material vs what my own power ranking suggest is the superior side. Also the Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and their energy levels will be high as thyey look for redemption. Play on Kansas State |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 74 h 60 m | Show | |
Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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10-14-23 | BYU v. TCU OVER 52 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show | |
Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week, and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D. The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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10-14-23 | Flyers +162 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
The Flyers will look to record their second straight victory to open the 2023-24 campaign when they visit the Ottawa Senators on Saturday afternoon and Im betting they get it.In the offseason, the Flyers made a point to tighten up defensively and Im betting those better defensive efforts will come to play here today vs a Ottawa side that can sometimes be stagnant offensively.Meanwhile, the Senators dropped a 5-3 decision to the Carolina Hurricanes in their season opener on Wednesday while playing all out hockey , and now Im betting their in an emotional letdown scenario and vulnerable with two key bodies Norris and Zack MacEwen injured or less than 100%. Play on Philadelphia to win |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan UNDER 46 | 7-52 | Loss | -109 | 41 h 19 m | Show | |
MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons |
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10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis +5 | 31-21 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. Memphis is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis Tigers to cover |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable trends Reid is 13-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. Payton is 12-3 UNDER when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies +131 | 1-3 | Win | 131 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Philadelphia starter SUAREZ is 7-0 against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SUAREZ is 24-8 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Strider the Braves starter is 0-2 record in two playoff starts against the Phillies, along with an ERA of 5.79. THOMSON is 18-7 against the money line in October games as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - very good NL offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), in October games are 12-37 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phillies |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston. Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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10-11-23 | Oilers v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Each one of these sides have alot of offensive talent , however in the recent pas these clubs have played fairly tight defensive tilts, as is evident by the the under going 6-1-1 in the L/ 8 meetings with the L/3 meetings in here in Vancouver has all stayed on the low side of the Totals offering. Im betting history repeats itself in this early season matchup. Under is 4-1 in Canucks last 5 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-1 in Canucks last 5 vs. Pacific. VANCOUVER is 21-10 UNDER in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with an average of 6 gpg scored. Play on the under |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
I know these two starting pitchers LAs Lynn and Arizonas Pfaadt have some hefty ERAs, but both are still viable pitchers and have strong support from their respective bullpens. PFAADT is 12-3 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.9. rpg scored. Lynn is 6-1 lifetime against the Diamondbacks with a 2.96 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts). LA DODGERS are 11-2 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse this season with a combined average of 8.6 rpg going on the board. ARIZONA is 14-5 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. ARIZONA is 22-9 UNDER in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 rpg. Arizona is 2-7-1 UNDER L/10 games. The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 121 games (+12.35 Units / 9% ROI) MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team (1.5 or more HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -2 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6 road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games. UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season. Play on FIU to cover |
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10-10-23 | Orioles v. Rangers -133 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) will start Game 3 for the Rangers Rangers starter EOVALDI is 19-5 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) EOVALDI is 11-2 against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record) Os Right-hander Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA regular season) gets the ball for the Orioles. Im sure he has butterflies as he prepares for his biggest start of his life.Kremer, lost to Texas on May 27 when he gave up three runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings. Overall, he's 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA in three career starts versus the Rangers and according to my power rankings does matchup well vs this explosive Rangers offense. TEXAS is 20-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season. TEXAS is 24-12 against the money line against AL East opponents this season. MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. are 8-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games. are 11-30 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas to win |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State OVER 56.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks used a six-run first inning against Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, scoring five of those runs before making their first out of the evening, to earn an 11-2 victory on Saturday and its now bounce back time for a now wide awake Dodgers team. Dbacks starter Gallen gave up five earned runs in a start seven times this season and two were against the Dodgers, including Aug. 28 at Los Angeles where he allowed career-worst four homers whike serving up six runs in a 7-4 loss. That came during a three-game sweep by the Dodgers when the D-backs were outscored 23-5. My power rankings suggest Gallen does not matchup well here vs a explosive Dodgers batting order. Dodgers starter Miller faced the D-backs twice this season and went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings. LA DODGERS are 15-3 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Gallen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +4.3 which qualifies on this runline offering. LA DODGERS are 17-3 against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.5 which easily qualifies on this runline offering. ARIZONA is 2-15 against the money line in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering in at -3.2 which qualifies on this run line offering. MLB. Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3. Play on LA Dodgers to win -1.5 |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -147 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Left-hander Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA regular season) will start for the Braves against Philadelphia right-hander Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.35 this postseason). Fried started once against Philadelphia this season and allowed one run in five innings during a no-decision. Wheeler has pitched well against the Braves this season, but are an explosive offensive side that will eventually figure opposing pitchers out, and that is what Im betting on tonight. ATLANTA is 20-3 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Wheeler whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season. WHEELER is 7-11 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) FRIED is 24-9 ( against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 22-7 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career (Team's Record) MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70) or less (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 91-31 L/5 seams for a 75% conversion rate! MLB- Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 17-51 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to win |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 31 m | Show | |
The pundits and media love how well RB Christian Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco. |
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10-08-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -114 | 11-8 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Texas won the opener of the best-of-five series 3-2 over top-seeded Baltimore on Saturday for their third straight post season road win. But Im betting the run ends today. Rangers starter MONTGOMERY is 10-21 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 3-10 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 0-7 against the money line after giving up no earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 37-18 against the money line against left-handed starters this season. Note: Orioles starter Rodriguez since returning from the minors in July was 5-2 along with a very respectable 2.58 ERA in 13 starts . According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here vs Montgomery and company. BALTIMORE is 17-6 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 76-29 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less are just 12-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to win |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 59 m | Show | |
The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West.
NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 38 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 12 m | Show | |
10-08-23 | Texans +2 v. Falcons | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center Entering this game he is off a 280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a 30-6 thumping of the Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texans to cover |
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10-08-23 | Giants +11.5 v. Dolphins | 16-31 | Loss | -112 | 89 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect with them. NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Giants to cover |
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10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 53 m | Show | |
I know the Panthers have not won this season, but they held two of their four opponents to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24 as underdogs against the NFC North . Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Carolina to cover |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show | |
After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Steelers to cover |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the recent past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10 and are 6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines with the average winning ppg diff clicking in at +19.5 PPG. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -125 | 17-13 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 55 m | Show | |
Both these sides have had problems early this season and both are at 1-3 overall.Ole Dominion has over achieved when looking at their positive point spread work, while Southern Miss has failed to live up to some experts projections. Both are obviously desperate for a win, but when looking at my power rankings its obvious to me the home side has the slight edge based on some factors that may not come across in the msm sports media statistical analysis. After two back and forth tilts that Old Dominion lost but covered will now be in a huge letdown situation with this being their 2nd straight road tilt. With a big game against App State up next I expect Old Dominion to be in a vulnerable spot . OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS L/12 after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more . CFB road team vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - terrible ball control team, 28 or less minutes TOP, 16 or less first downs per game, after being controlled in time of possession 3 straight games( 27 or less min) are 1-25 L/26 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% go against conversion rate. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (SOUTHERN MISS) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 30-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate! Play on Southern Miss to cover |
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10-07-23 | Phillies +184 v. Braves | 3-0 | Win | 184 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Phillies starter SUAREZ is 6-0 against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Suarez, has previously faced this Atlanta batting order in the postseason, having allowed one run on three hits in 3 1/3 innings of a no-decision in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS. He posted a 2-0 record with a 1.23 ERA and a save in five appearances (three starts) during the postseason and I m backing him today. Note:Suarez allowed just one run on four hits and struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on June 20. On the flipside I know Atlantas starter Strider was 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts this season against the Phillies , but all good and bad runs must come to an end. ATLANTA is 5-12 against the money line in home games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 against the money line in road games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997.PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons. Play on Philadelphia |
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10-07-23 | Twins +137 v. Astros | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 57 m | Show | |
AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 1 Justin Verlander (13-8) is the starter in game 1 of this series for the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins have yet to name a starting pitcher for this tilt. Houston, is rested but rusty after getting a bye in the first round as they smash and grabbed the AL West from the Rangers on the final day of the regular season. Before sweeping their last three tilts, the Astros were in a funk recording a sub par 13-14 record over their final 27 games any may.not be the perennial favorite vs the Twins. I know the the Astros are the defending World Series champions , so they get alot of respect, but here in game 1 they look vulnerable considering their late season form. It must also be noted that the Twins have a deep starting five -quality starters (Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda) that can definitely keep them in this series. Also from. a offensive perspective Minnesota had the league’s highest OPS over the month of September and are capable of keeping up with the Astros vaunted attack. We have to remember that Minny took 4 of 6 from the astros this season and are viable underdogs here in game 1. The Twins are not favored for the first time in a while, as they have not been listed as underdogs in their last 10 trips to the diamonds. This year, Minnesota has won four of 10 games when listed as at least +132 or worse on the moneyline. HOUSTON is 4-9 against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. HOUSTON is 13-22 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 52-27 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to win |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
The Cougars star junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game, and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars. Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State Washington States football program is 17-0 ATS L/17 in games following a SU underdog victory . CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington State to cover |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 39 m | Show | |
Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all 3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7 as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is also just 1-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 38 m | Show | |
Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. The Longhorns are 1-5 SU all time when in. a battle of undefeated teams. TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma to cover |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just 42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. Play on Illinois to cover |
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10-05-23 | Bears +7 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Bears to cover |
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10-04-23 | Florida International v. New Mexico State OVER 49.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score that will be in low to mid 50s, making this Totals offer vulnerable .New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI) New Mexico State solid run game should really pile up the yards against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Aggies coming in to their last game at Hawaii were averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity , but very high winds gave their offense some problems in that tilt, but here this week back at home should be ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Panthers have recorded one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn and must not be under estimated in their ability to fire back offensively here on the road in Las Cruces. I know these teams have played a slow pace so far, but Im betting the Aggies ability to put points on the board via their run game will force the FIU to up the tempo and for total to be eclipsed. CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 35-9 OVER L/30 season's for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 143 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
The Phillies Im betting get the series sweep when they host the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of a wild-card series on Wednesday. Philadelphia took the opener of the best-of-three set 4-1 on Tuesday and my projections make them strong favs for a convincing victory tonight. My power rankings suggest Braxton Garrett, a f hurler who has never pitched in the playoffs and went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in 31 games (30 starts) this season does not matchup well here vs this explosive Phillies batting order. In yesterdays win every Philadelphia player in the starting lineup had at least one hit of the team's 11 total hits. Rinse and repeat here today. MLB Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), in October games are 30-10 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to win -1.5 runline |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins -128 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios will take the mound in Game 2. He went 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 32 starts this season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not match up favorably vs Minnesotas batting order. Meanwhile, Gray the Twins starter finished strong down the stretch, recording a stingy 1.54 ERA in his final seven starts of the regular season. He walked five and struck out 36 in 41 innings and gets my support here. TORONTO is 6-14 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to win |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins -105 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show | |
Minnesota has a record of 67-44, a 60.4% win rate, when favored by -113 or more by bookmakers this season and once again according to my own projections have the edge in this tilt vs the Blue Jays. It must be noted despite of the talent the Jays have in their batting order they have for the most part failed to live up to expectations and are lucky to be in this position as their offense has a collective .256 batting average (just barely above the Mendoza line), and rank seventh in the league with 1422 total hits and 14th in MLB with 746 runs scored. It has the 13th-ranked slugging percentage (.416) and ranks 16th in home runs (188) in all of MLB. Torontos starter GAUSMAN is 15-22 against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 1-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.500. MINNESOTA is 23-5 against the money line in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out.
MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 8-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to win |
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10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -140 | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 29 m | Show | |
The Rays have entered the game as favorites 130 times this season and won 86, or 66.2%, of those games and my projections estimate they deserve their fav status here today vs a Rangers side, that has been highly inconsistent since the all star break. Note: Glasnow the Rays right-hander starter today is off five scoreless innings while surrendering just two hits.In 21 games this season, he has put up an ERA of 3.60, with 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .209 against him and he once again looks to help his team find the W column in the opening game of this post season tilt. I know the Rangers can light up the scoreboard when in form, but it must be noted that the Rays are among the highest-scoring teams in the majors, ranking fourth with 860 total runs this season. MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 75-28 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 11-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the TB Rays to win |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +1.5 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Carroll is 15-25 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-01-23 | Raiders +5.5 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 17 m | Show | |
Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on on defense this season, ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42 in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raiders to cover |
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10-01-23 | Liberty -5 v. Sun | 87-84 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Liberty are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Liberty are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.NEW YORK is 17-8 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) after 15 or more games are 33-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors withnthe average ppg diff clicking at +9.6 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on the Liberty |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 138 h 1 m | Show | |
10-01-23 | Commanders +8 v. Eagles | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 89 h 8 m | Show | |
Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4 v. Panthers | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season . Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-01-23 | Rams +1 v. Colts | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks to some strong D and fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are 0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, . Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats evident by quarterback Trevor Lawrences one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. Jacksonville is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM have gone a perfect 6-0 UNDER in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard. Play on the under |
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10-01-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta owns a 2-0 ATS record in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS vs the Jags. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -125 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
The Orioles (100-60) had won five in a row before losing 3-0 on Friday, a night after they clinched the American League East title with a 2-0 victory over the Red Sox. They were obviously in a emotional letdown situation in that game , and will be primed to get the win here as they do not want to enter the play offs in a losing mode.QUOTE: "It was a big night for us (Thursday) night, and we just didn't play our best baseball (on Friday), and those things happen," Hyde said. "Hopefully, we'll rebound and play a better game." END QUOTE Baltimores starter GIBSON is 15-6 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record) GIBSON is 22-11 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 29-9 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 16-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orioles to win |
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09-30-23 | East Carolina v. Rice -145 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 3 m | Show | |
Rice lost last week 42-29 to South Florida but QB JT Daniels threw for 491 of the Owls’ 492 total yards and is a dangerous man under center. Considering E.Carolinas D was sliced and diced by all three FBS sides they played this season, for 30,31, 43 points respectively including giving up a whopping 702 combined yards passing in those games, Im betting Rices star QB rockn rolls his team to victory here at home. Bloomgren is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE. RICE is 26-10 ATS in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). RICE is 17-4 ATS L/21 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (RICE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Rice to win |
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09-30-23 | Ball State v. Western Michigan | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 127 h 33 m | Show | |
Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley, who has registered 4 TDS already this season while averaging 125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a 5 interceptions and just 3 TDs. Ball State is losing the stats battles an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping 40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Michigan |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 80 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-30-23 | South Florida v. Navy -3 | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see Navy at their very best.
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09-30-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -114 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a wild-card spot and win their three-game series versus the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday afternoon. Tampa Bay already has a wild card spot in the play offs and now just want to make sure their lineup is healthy entering the post season. Meanwhile, the Jays still need to guarantee their post season appearance with a victory and will be ready to play all out baseball to get there. The Blue Jays are scheduled to start left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31 ERA) on Saturday. The Rays are scheduled to open with right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong (1-0, 1.41 ERA). In 18 career relief outings against Toronto, he is 0-0 with an 8.31 ERA. The Blue Jays got to him for two runs on four hits in just one-third of an inning on Sept. 23 and according to my pitcher vs batting order match up well against him. This will be a bullpen game for the Rays, and players will be rested so the advantage goes to the more motivated side. Play on Toronto to win |
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota -12 | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 4 m | Show | |
Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-30-23 | Penn State -27 v. Northwestern | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said, Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. Play on Penn State to cover |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky -1 | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 65 h 3 m | Show | |
Im betting Kentucky has finally arrived as a SEC side to be feared and not because of their talent but their grit . I know Florida has the bigger brand name and following, but the Wildcats proved recently they can handle the Gators as was evident last season when they took out the Gators on the road and also ended a 14 game home losing streak in this series back in 2021. FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats defense has forced multiple takeaways in three of the four tilts and has been solid against the run and hasn’t allowed anyone to record 100 yards on the ground. Florida Im betting will be forced to be more one dimensional and despite of some good results this season, are in for a more formidable experience here today against a gritty Kentucky football program that plays with pride and passion. KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half are 39-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +2.5 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 62 h 42 m | Show | |
Both BYU and Cincinnati are off losses last week, but Im betting the Bearcats wont be able to bounce back as easily as they were physically smothered and battered by the Oklahoma D, only scoring 6 points and when nearing the red zone looked completely lost. In the Cougars loss to Kansas BYU ran more plays for more yards than the Jayhawks but turnovers proverbially killed them. This week in this matchup Im betting on a BYU D, that has looked good against the run to slow down the Beracats attack, and on the flipside for the potent Cougars passing attack to do well vs a Cincinnati D, that does better against the run than the pass. I know BYU has had a tremendous amount of trouble running the ball, but their passing attack behind Slovis has been explosive and that Im betting will be key to them getting the cover here at home. CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons CFB road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-29-23 | Aces -6 v. Wings | 64-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Aces enter this game on a 8 game win streak, and are showing complete dominance over their opponents, and over a recent 5 game span have outscored their opposition by an average of 17.2 ppg and by the first two games of this series vs Dallas by 14 and 7 points respectively. Dallas did play better last time out, but that will make the Aces all that more aware, and concentrated. Note:LAS VEGAS is 13-4 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicked in at 13.9. Play on Vegas to cover |
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09-29-23 | Utah v. Oregon State -160 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 32 m | Show | |
Oregon State is off a road loss to Washington State last time out, but are now in a bounce back mode as they take on one of the favorites to win the PAC 12 championship this season (Utah). Oregon State has been a strong bet at home recently especially against conference opposition as is evident by their 9-0 ATS record as hosts vs PAC 12 brethren over the last 3 seasons. OREGON ST is also 8-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. After sustaining a lopsided 42-16 loss last season on the road to the Utes a revenge scenario will have this Beavers side ready to deliver pay back in merciless fashion this Thursday night on home turf. CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OREGON ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Oregon State to cover/win |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
Cardinal getting a little bit to much respect here as they have failed to cover both road games this season. Meanwhile, NC State 3-1 has yet to really get untracked behind QB transfer from Virginia Brennan Armstrong who according to my QB matchup ratings matches up well vs this Louisville secondary. Advantage to the home underdog. LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NC State to cover |
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09-29-23 | Guardians -105 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Cleveland starter QUANTRILL is 11-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) QUANTRILL is 18-8 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Quantrill threw six shutout innings at Detroit in a vwin on April 19. He is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in nine career outings against the Tigers, including six starts Meanwhile, Left-hander Joey Wentz (3-12, 6.45 ERA) will start the series opener for Detroit. He pitched well against the Guardians this season in two starts, but Im betting the Guardians will have him figured out in the third starts a charm scenario. This baseball group from Motown has been playing better of late, but that has not been a recipe for success this season as DETROIT is 4-13 against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. DETROIT is 13-25 against the money line in home games in night games this season. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 57-18 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Home teams (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL), playing on Friday are 14-36 L/5 seasons for a for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win |
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09-28-23 | Temple v. Tulsa OVER 55.5 | 26-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Temple according to my power rankings is improving , and tonight I expect Owls QB Warner to light up a ugly looking Tulsa secondary for some decent production. I expect most of Qwls offense to come through the air, as their run offense has been quiet to say the least as evident by ranking 120th in the nation in rushing success . Defensively, Temple has some issues ranking 105th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Havoc .With that said Im betting on Tulsas run heavy offense to really do some damage here vs a Temple side that ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 90th in Rushing PPA. Both sides should see some explosive offensve production all be it in two different ways, but the bottom line remains intact and that is a higher socring game than the linesmakers totals offering suggests. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points.TEMPLE is 27-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average score clicking in at 77.8 ppg.TULSA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. Play over |
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09-27-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
The Rockies when playing at home, area dangerous underdog opponent. Coors Field is a wild card environment, and that was evident when Colorado took game one of this series as close +200 underdogs. Im once again betting on the spoilers giving the Dodgers all they can handle today making the runline a viable investment option. MLB Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 11-39 L/26 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. Play on Colorado +1.5 runline |
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09-26-23 | Astros +131 v. Mariners | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
Astros starter JAVIER is 11-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 9-0 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record) George Kirby the Mariners starter has slowed considerably of late, after a decent campaign, as is evident by a 5.16 ERA in his L/3 starts. With Houston averaging 5.8 rpg on the road this season, the Astros look like viable bets here today behind Javier going against Kirby. Both bullpens are viable, so the staring p[itching and offensive production considerations are what have me on the Astros. HOUSTON is 33-14 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 8-2 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. SEATTLE is 8-14 against the money line in September games this season. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-26 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to win |
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09-26-23 | Sun v. Liberty -9 | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Sun are fourth in the WNBA in points scored (82.7 per game) and best in points allowed (79).The Sun make 7.2 3-pointers per game and shoot 36% from beyond the arc, ranking sixth and fourth, respectively, in the league.In 2023 the Sun are second-best in the league in 3-pointers conceded (6.7 per game) and best in defensive 3-point percentage (32.1%) which matches up well against a three point centric Liberty offense. Sun are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.Sun are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Sun are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Liberty have been propelled by their explosive offense, ranking second-best in the WNBA by scoring 89.2 points per game. They rank fourth in the league in points allowed (80.6 per contest). The Liberty average 7.5 three-pointers conceded per game, and are fifth in the WNBA. They are allowing a 34.1% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks fifth in the league. Which is not a good omen for them covering vs a a strong 3 point D. New York has beaten the spread just 19 times in 41 games despite of a strong w/L record. As 9.5-point favorites or more, the Liberty are a sub .500 9-12 ATS. In closing it will be the Sun out side D, that will be the difference maker. Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover |
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09-26-23 | Diamondbacks v. White Sox +1.5 | 15-4 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks will give the ball to right-hander Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA). Davies has not pitched more than four innings in any of his past three starts. His ERA was 7.11 on June 18, and it has not gone below 6.37 since then. He is fade material in his current form, and is being over rated here on this RL line offering. In two career starts against the White Sox, Davies is 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA. He gave up nine runs on 13 hits in 7 2/3 innings during those tilts. I know the White Sox Urena has not pitched much better, but it must be noted that the Dbacks are 0-6 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 1-11 ) against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CHI WHITE SOX) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 6.50 or more over his last 10 starts are 63-17 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago White Sox on the +1.5 runline |