Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami @ New York 1:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: New York -4.0 (5*) The #8 seed Miami Heat shocked the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games to advance. Despite losing 2 key players in that series to injuries in Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, Miami was able to prevail mostly due in part to Jimmy Butler’s super-human effort in the series which saw him average 37.6 points per game, and the defensive ineptitude displayed by Milwaukee who allowed the Heat to average 124.0 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 51.9%. Miami won’t find it quite as easy on the offensive end versus a New York team which held Cleveland to 97 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games during their East Conference Quarterfinal series win. As a matter of fact, the Knicks were 2-0 at home versus Miami this season and held the Heat to a mere 98.0 points per game. Give me New York minus points. |
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04-30-23 | Cubs -132 v. Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Cubs (Steele) @ Marlins (Hoeing) 12:05 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Cubs -132 (5*) Since last season, Miami has gone a terrible 9-21 in home day games. The Marlins are also a very poor 14-35 since last season when facing National League teams like the Cubs who are allowing 4.0 or fewer runs per game. The probable listed pitcher for Miami is Bryan Hoeing who has made 2 career starts with a large 9.81 ERA/2.18 WHIP while lasting only a combined 7 1/3 innings. Heading into this weekend, the Marlins bullpen has recorded a shaky 5.81 ERA/1.51 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. The Marlins have averaged a paltry 2.6 runs scored per game at home this season. Justin Steel has a dominating 1.19 ERA/0.89 WHIP in 5 starts this season. The Cubs bullpen has been solid on the road with a staff 2.05 ERA/0.91 WHIP. Chicago is 6-3 in road games thus far while averaging a robust 6.2 runs scored per game. Give me the Chicago Cubs as a money line favorite. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Lakers 10:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Lakers -4.5 (5*) Memphis is coming off an impressive 116-99 home win in Game 5 to stay alive and cut their series deficit to 3-2. However, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 12.4 points per game. Conversely, the Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following a loss in their previous contest. Put that Lakers run of resiliency into perspective, they’ve only lost 2 straight games just once since 2/9/2022 (78-days). Counting the postseason, the Lakers are 4-0 SU&ATS at home versus Memphis during this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 42% or worse shooting in all 4 of those home wins and that includes 39% or less in each of the previous 3 meetings. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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04-28-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Rockies (Freeland) 8:40 ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Under 11.0 (5*) Kyle Freeland has pitched 18-4 to the under in his career team starts when facing a team like the Angels who currently possesses a .510-to-.540-win percentage. Colorado has played 6-1 to the under in their last 7 and their bullpen has a brilliant 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP during that time. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly had an excellent 1.59 ERA in 3 starts versus Colorado last season and averaged over 7.0 innings pitched per outing. Kelly is 2-0 in his road team starts this season with a 0.93 ERA. The Arizona bullpen has compiled a sparkling 2.15 ERA/1.02 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-28-23 | Angels v. Brewers -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Angels (Anderson) @ Brewers (Miley) 8:10 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Brewers -130 (5*) Tyler Anderson has displayed terrible form over his last 3 starts with a 10.29 ERA/2.00 WHIP while also allowing 5 home runs in 14.0 innings pitched. Anderson has a poor 6.53 ERA in 4 career starts versus Milwaukee. Since the start of last season, the Angels are 10-33 versus starting pitchers like today’s Wade Miley who were allowing 0.5 home runs or fewer per start. Speaking of Wade Miley, he’s been extremely sharp in 4 starts thus far in 2023 with a 1.96 ERA/0.96 WHIP. MLB money line home favorites of -110 or greater like Milwaukee that has a team slugging percentage of .370 or worse throughout their previous 10 games, and they’re facing an opponent like the Angels which has recorded a team slugging percentage of .480 or better during its previous 5 games, resulted in those money line home favorites going 98-26 (79%) since 1997, and includes 3-0 this season. Give me the Milwaukee Brewers as a money line favorite. |
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04-28-23 | Bruins v. Panthers OVER 6 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Bruins @ Panthers 7:35 PM ET Game# 1-2 Play On: Over 6.0 (5*) Florida has played 8-0-1 to the over in their last 9 conference home games and there was a combined average of 8.6 goals per contest. Florida is averaging an incredibly high 39.0 shots on goal per game at home. They’ll be facing Boston goaltender Linus Ullmark who has a superb .935 save percentage in 53 starts and 2 relief appearances this season. However, during the first 5 games of this series, Ullmark has a very mediocre .904 save percentage. Florida is coming off a 4-3 overtime win at Boston in Game 5 to stave off elimination. Since the start of last season, Florida has played 17-3 (85%) to the over immediately following an overtime win. Boston has played 8-0-1 to the over in their last 9 and 10-1-1 to the over during their previous 12 away games. The Bruins have scored 3 goals or more during each of the first 5 games of this series and going back to regular season action they’ve accomplished that feat 8 straight times. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-28-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox +113 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Guardians (Bieber) @ Red Sox (Pivetta) 7:10 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Red Sox +113 (3*) Boston is coming off a 6-2 loss at Baltimore in their previous game. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 this season following a loss. Cleveland is coming off a 4-1 home win over Colorado. The Guardians are 2-6 following a win this season which includes 0-3 in the last 3. Boston has averaged a lofty 6.6 runs scored per game in their last 7. Conversely, Cleveland has averaged 2.6 runs scored per game in their last 7 while hitting only 4 homers during that stretch. Nick Pivetta made 2 starts versus Cleveland last year and posted a stellar 2.13 ERA during 12 2/3 innings pitched. Shane Bieber has made 2 career starts at Fenway Park with a sizable 7.15 ERA. Give me the Boston Red Sox as a money line underdog. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Hawks 8:30 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Celtics -6.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Boston is 4-0 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 5.0 or greater following a home loss in their previous game and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. The current total on this contest is 231.0, and Boston is 5-0 SU&ATS this season during away games that have a total of 230.0 or greater and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season following a win. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, round 1 Game 6 away favorites like Boston have gone an extremely profitable 13-1 SU&ATS. Furthermore, if those away favorites were coming off a SU loss in Game 5, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS with a decisive average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Additionally, teams like Boston that are playing as an away favorite of 2.0 to 8.0-points in Game 6 of a playoffs series that they lead 3-2, and they’re coming off a Game 5 home favorite SU loss, resulted in those Game 6 away favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.8 points per game. Give me the Boston Celtics minus points. |
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04-27-23 | Rays -1.5 v. White Sox | 14-5 | Win | 114 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Rays (McClanahan) @ White Sox (Cease) 7:10 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rays -1.5 (+114) (5*) Something must give in this matchup as both teams are coming off shutout losses in each of their previous 2 games. However, the White Sox have lost 7 consecutive games in all and they’re also 2-12 in their previous 14 games. The White Sox are a poor 3-6 at home thus far and their bullpen had a terrible staff 7.60 ERA/1.91 WHIP in those games. The White Sox are an abysmal 2-14 this season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater. Despite those shutout losses to Houston in their last 2 games, Tampa Bay is still riding high with a 20-5 season record, and they’ve hit 48 home runs while doing so. Tampa Bay is currently a money line favorite of -155. The Rays have gone an extremely profitable 17-2 this season as a money line favorite of -150 or greater and they outscored their 19 opponents by a substantial 4.0 runs per game.The Rays Sean McClanahan is 5-0 in his team starts this season with a 1.86 ERA. The Rays bullpen has an outstanding staff 1.32 ERA/0.93 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Conversely, the White Sox Dylan Cease has a shaky 1.53 WHIP over his last 3 starts while walking 10 in just 11.0 innings pitched. Give me the Tampa Bay Rays on the run-line. |
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04-26-23 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 234.5 | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Kings 10:00 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Over 234.5 (5*) Golden State won Games 3 and 4 at home to even this series at 2-2. The Sacramento Kings have played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 at home immediately following 2 consecutive losses. The average total in those 7 contests was 236.6 and 247.5 points were scored per game. Conversely, Golden State has played 11-0 to the over this season in away games in which their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and the total was between 226.0 to 238.0 The average total in those 11 contests was 233.0 and there was a combined 245.6 points scored per game. Golden State is #1 in the NBA when it comes to offensive pace and Sacramento is 9th in that identical category. The Kings are #1 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Golden Sate is #9. Lastly, Sacramento is #25 in the NBA when speaking about defensive efficiency and Golden State is average at best while ranking #17. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-26-23 | Cardinals v. Giants -105 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Matz) @ Giants (DeSclafani) 9:45 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Giants -105 (5*) Stephen Matz is 0-4 in his teams starts this season with a large 6.55 ERA/WHIP. During his 1 start at San Francisco last season, Matz allowed 8 earned runs in just 2.0 inning pitched. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 and 6 of the previous 8 games. The Cardinals are a dismal 6-14 this season when facing right-handed starting pitchers and 3-11 during night games. After starting the season 6-13, the Giants have rebounded to win their last 4. The Giants have hit an impressive 36 home runs in 23 games thus far. Anthony DeSclafani has shown very good form in his 4 starts this season while compiling a 2.62 ERA/0.88 WHIP and averages 6.0 innings pitched per outing. Give me the Giants on the money line. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:30 ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Bucks -11.5 (5*) We have a double-digit postseason favorite that’s down 3-1 in a playoff series. This point-spread tells me everything I need to know. This is the game where Miami truly misses the loss of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their absences in the previous game weren’t noticeable because the Heat won and Jimmy Butler turned in a playoff performance for the ages with a 58-point game. Although Butler will continue to carry the load offensively, the probability of him even coming close to his 58-point scoring night are extremely low. Nobody else in the Heat lineup at this present time has shown any indication they can be a consistent offensive contributor to help take off some of the burden currently bestowed upon “Jimmy Buckets”. I’m looking for the Bucks defensive intensity to be at a high-level tonight after going through lapses over the past 2 weeks. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Lakers +4.5 (5*) For starters, the Lakers lost their last contest on the road in Game 2 at Memphis. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 away after losing the last time they played a road game. The lakers won both games at home in this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU this season as an away underdog of 9.0 or less immediately following a home win. The average point-spread in those 6 contests was 6.5 and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Lakers have played superb defense in their 5 postseason games while holding opponents 105.8 points per contest and 42.0% shooting from the field. The average point total allowed would be better than it already was if not for 2 of those 5 games requiring overtime. Despite Memphis being the Western Conference #2 seed and the Lakers #7, the lower seeded team is the better team at this juncture of the season. Give me the Lakers plus the points. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*) We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 9:00 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -9.5 (5*) Minnesota staved off elimination with a 114-108 home overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Timberwolves blew a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter but survived to play another day. However, playing in Denver this season has been nothing short of a hornet’s nest for Minnesota. The Nuggets have won all 4 meetings at home versus Minnesota this season and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During those 4 contests, Denver scored 124.7 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.8% from the field. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 conference home games following a loss and won by 16.7 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Denver is an outstanding 36-7 SU (.837) and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) at home this season. Any #1 seed home favorite of 9.0 or greater like Denver who are playing in Game 5 of a NBA Playoff series, and they’re coming off an away favorite SU loss in Game 4. resulted in them going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA postseason. Those favorites won by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points. |
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04-24-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles +110 | 4-5 | Win | 110 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Sale) @ Orioles (Kremer) 6:35 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Orioles +110 (3*) Chris Sale has hardly looked like the dominant starter he once was. During 4 starts this season Sale has a terrible 8.00 ERA/1.67 WHIP while surrendering 5 home runs in 18.0 innings pitched. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 5 homers allowed came on 4/1 during a home start versus Baltimore. Furthermore, the Orioles hit 7 home runs during their season opening 3-game series at Fenway Park. Boston is 2-5 this season in division games and they’re also a horrible 28-55 versus fellow AL East teams since the start of last season. Baltimore opens this AL East series red-hot while on a 6-game win streak and they’re also 10-2 the last 12. The total at the time of this writing is 8.0 and that’s significant. Since the start of last season, Baltimore is an extremely profitable 12-1 whenever the total was 8.0 or 8.5 and with Dean Kremer as their starting pitcher. Baltimore has allowed 1 run or fewer in each of their previous 5 games. The Orioles bullpen has compiled a brilliant 1.59 ERA/0.97 WHIP as a staff throughout their last 7 games. Play on the Baltimore Orioles as a money line underdog. |
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 3:30 ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Warriors -7.5 (5*) Golden State is coming off a 114-97 home win over Sacramento to take a 2-1 series lead. Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Golden State is a perfect 7-0 SU at home versus Sacramento with an average victory margin of 12.5 points per game. Golden State is 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of -9.5 or less, and if their opponent was coming off a SU loss, they were 4-0 SU&ATS during that time frame. Sacramento scored less than 100 points for just the 5th time this season in their Game 3 loss. Furthermore, the Kings are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and were beaten by an average of 13.7 points per contest. Give me the Golden State Warriors minus the points. |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -138 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Knicks 1:00 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Knicks -138 (5*) The Cavaliers have enjoyed a fantastic season. However, they’ve not been good as a road underdog of 5.0 or less. When cast into that exact situation, Cleveland is 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS. Putting that into perspective, when not playing withing that point-spread on the road, they’re 51-21 SU and 40-28-4 ATS in all other games. The Knicks were a 99-79 home winner versus the Cavaliers on Friday. Since the start of last season, Cleveland is a dismal 0-8 ATS following a game in which there was a combined 185 or less points scored, and they were outscored by an average of 10.7 points per contest. Any NBA money line home favorite like the Knicks that covered their previous game by 18.0 or more, versus an opponent like Cleveland that’s coming off 2 straight games that went under the total by 12.0 points or more on each occasion, resulted in those home teams going 54-6 SU (90%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. Give me the New York Knicks on the money line. |
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04-22-23 | Marlins +120 v. Guardians | 3-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Marlins (Garrett) @ Guardians (Plesac) 6:10 PM ET Game 2 of DH Game# 923-924 Play On: Marlins +120 (5*) Cleveland is 8-5 on the road but just 2-4 at home. Zach Plesak has posted a sizable 6.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 3 starts this season. The Guardians enter this series having gone 3-3 in its last 6 which came against the Nationals and Tigers who have a combined 12-23 record thus far in 2023. Miami has gone 6-2 in their last 8 which improves their season record to 10-9. Braxton Garrett has gone 2-0 in his team starts this season with a shiny 2.61 ERA. The Marlins bullpen has been lights out over their previous 7 games with a staff 1.20 ERA/0.53 WHIP and they were 3-3 on save opportunities. Give me the Miami Marlins as a money line underdog. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*) Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive. The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games. Give me the Miami Heat plus points. |
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04-22-23 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 226 | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
Suns vs. Clippers 3:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Over 226.0 (5*) Phoenix took Game 3 of this series with a 129-124 road win and the contest easily went over the total of 225.0. That makes 6 consecutive contests go over the total for the Clippers at home and with a combined average of 244.3 points scored per game. The Clippers have played 10-1-1 to the over throughout their previous 12 games and allowed opponents to score 120 points or more 6 times. Phoenix has gone over in their last 6 on the road when the total was 234.0 or less and there was a combined average of 240.5 points scored per game. The Suns have allowed 118 points or more in 8 of their last 9 away games. During the first 3 games of this series, these teams have combined to average an extremely high 59 free throw attempts per game. Saying it’s been a physical series thus far would be a monumental understatement. Dating back to the regular season, these teams have played 4-0-1 to the over during 5 meetings between them and there was 233.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-21-23 | Astros v. Braves -110 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Astros (Brown) @ Braves (Elder) 7:20 PM ET Game# 973-974 Play On: Braves -110 (5*) Houston is coming off an 8-1 home win over Toronto in their previous game. However, the Astros are 1-6 in their last 7 this year following a win. The Astros bullpen has been very good at home but on the road they have an unimpressive staff 4.67 ERA/1.44 WHIP. Atlanta is coming off a 1-0 loss at San Diego which snapped a red-hot 8-game win streak. The Braves have now allowed only 2 combined runs in their last 3 games. Bryce Elder is 3-0 in his team starts this season with a brilliant 1.53 ERA. The Atlanta bullpen has been dominant over their previous 7 games with a staff 1.59 ERA while also recording 30 strikeouts while walking only 3 in 23.0 innings of work. Give me the Atlanta Braves on the money line. |
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04-21-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -126 | 6-1 | Loss | -126 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Kikuchi) @ Yankees (German) 7:05 ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Yankees -126 (5*) The Blue Jays have struggled offensively of late while averaging 2.9 runs scored per game and hitting a poor .213 as a team throughout their last 7 outings. During that identical 7-game stretch, the Blue Jays bullpen has an uninspiring 5.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Toronto has lost 3 of its last 4 games and allowed 8 runs or more during their defeats. The Yankees are coming off a 9-3 home win over the Angels in their previous game. Since the start of last season, the Yankees have gone a perfect 14-0 following a game in which they scored 8 runs or more. The Yankees have allowed 3 runs or fewer in 9 of its previous 12 games. Domingo German has gone 18-3 in his career home starts versus teams with a winning record. Give me the New York Yankees as a money line favorite. |
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04-20-23 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*) Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-20-23 | Rangers v. Devils -124 | 5-1 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rangers @ Devils 7:30 PM ET Game# 3-4 Play On: Devils -124 (5*) The Devils are coming off an extremely disappointing Game 1 performance in Tuesday’s 5-1 home loss to the Rangers. However, New Jersey has gone 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 3.7 goals per game. The Devils are also 6-0 in their last 6 at home this season after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game and they outscored the opposition by a cumulative score of 24-13. The desperation and urgency factor for the Devils will be very apparent and it’ll be key to them avoiding a 2-0 series deficit heading back to Madison Square Garden for Games 3 and 4. Give me the New Jersey Devils as a money line favorite. |
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04-19-23 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Kings @ Oilers 10:00 PM ET Game# 61-62 Play On: Over 6.5 (5*) The Oilers are coming off Monday's 4-3 overtime loss in Game 1. Edmonton has played 8-0 to the over at home this season when the total was 6.5 or less and following a home 1-goal home loss in their previous game. There was a combined average of 8.6 goals scored per game. The Kings have played 7-0 to the over this season on the road and following a road 1-goal win. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*) Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least. Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*) With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series. Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*) Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest. Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*) Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest. Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game. Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*) The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game. Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points. |
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04-18-23 | Rangers v. Devils -126 | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rangers @ Devils 7:00 PM ET Game# 55-56 Play On: Devils -126 (5*) New Jersey has won their last 7 division home games and outscored their opponents by a decisive cumulative score of 31-7. As a matter of fact, during the last 6 of those wins the Devils allowed 1 goal or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, the Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 with the lone win coming over Eastern Conference cellar dweller Columbus. New Jersey won 3 of 4 versus the Rangers in regular season action which included coming out on top in both played at home. The Rangers star goaltender Igor Shesterkin started all 4 of those games versus New Jersey and had an uninspiring .894 save percentage in those outings. You can make a strong case the Devils have Shesterkin’s number considering his season lone save percentage is an excellent .916. Give me the New Jersey Devils on the money line. |
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04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8 | 2-9 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Gausman) @ Astros (Javier) 8:10 PM ET Game# 967-968 Play On: Under 8.0 (5*) Kevin Gausman has been very good in 3 starts this season while posting a 1.35 ERA during those outings. Gausman also had an excellent 25:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 20.0 innings pitched. Since 2021, Toronto has played 24-10 (71%) to the under during April away games. Since last season, Houston has played 22-10 (69%) to the under when facing an American League starting pitched like Kevin Gausman who owns an ERA of 3.20 or better. Christian Javier is 2-0 in his home team starts thus far and with a shiny 3.27 ERA. Both bullpens in this matchup are solid. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-17-23 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rangers (DeGrom) @ Royals (Lyles) 7:40 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Over 7.5 (5*) Kansas City has played 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 with a combined average of 11.9 runs scored per game. Jordan Lyles has collected an uninspiring 5.19 ERA/144 WHIP in 3 starts thus far. The Royals bullpen has been brutal of late while recording a terrible 8.31 ERA/1.57 WHIP throughout the last 7 games. Since last season, Kansas City has played 30-11 (73%) to the over when facing teams like Texas who are outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. Since 2021, Texas has played 10-3-2 to the over in games versus Kansas City. The Rangers have also played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 versus all teams. Jacob DeGrom is 3-0 in his team starts but with a very average 4.32 ERA. Since 2022, Texas has played 39-18 (68%) to the over as a money line favorite of -110 or greater. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Nets @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: 76ers -10.0 (5*) Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn this season by going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against them and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Additionally, during those 5 wins Philadelphia shot a red-hot 44.6% from beyond the 3-points and held the Nets to 105 or fewer points during the last 3 of those meetings. Any NBA favorite like Philadelphia that’s leading in a playoff series and is facing an opponent line Brooklyn who has a season win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those playoff favorites going 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 2019. The average line in those 34 contests was 7.6 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by a decisive margin of 15.1 points per game. Give me the 76ers minus the points. |
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04-17-23 | Giants v. Marlins -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Giants (Webb) @ Marlins (Luzardo) 6:40 PM ET ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Marlins -120 (5*) Logan Webb is 0-3 in his team starts this season with a 6.35 ERA. Since the start of last season, Webb 0-9 in his team starts as a money line road underdog of +100 to +150. The Giants bullpen has struggled throughout their previous 7 games with a staff 7.76 ERA. The Giants are a dismal 12-30 since the start of last season when facing a National League starting pitcher like Jesus Luzardo who has an ERA of 3.20 or better. The Giants have allowed 8 runs or more in 8 of their last 12 games. Speaking of Jesus Luzardo, he’s 3-0 in his team starts with a brilliant 1.93 ERA. During their previous 7 games, the Marlins bullpen has compiled a superb 2.46 ERA/0.97 WHIP. Give me the Marlins as a money line favorite. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers +8 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Suns 8:00 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Clippers +8.0 (5*) Since the 2018-2019 season, NBA away teams like the Clippers with a winning record versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a win percentage of .510 to .600 and they’ve played 3 games or fewer throughout the last 10 days, resulted in those teams going 26-10 SU (72.2%). The SU results take on added significance since it supports the sizable underdog in this matchup. Give me the Clippers plus the points. |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Heat @ Bucks 5:30 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Over 220.5 (5*) Both meetings in Milwaukee this season between these teams went over the total with a combined average of 232.5 points scored per game. Milwaukee has played 6-0 to the over in their previous 6 whenever there was a total of 228.0 or less and there was 241.2 points scored per game. Miami went under the total in both of their Play-In-Tournament games. Miami has gone over in their last 6 when the total is 217.0 or greater and following its previous 2 contests going under. There was a combined 239.5 points scored per game in those 6 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Grizzlies 3:00 ET Game# 515-516 Play On: Under 228.5 (5*) Since the 2018-2019 season, all 9 meetings between these teams in Memphis have gone under the total with a combined average of 205.3 points scored per game. Memphis is coming off a loss to Oklahoma City in their regular season finale. The Grizzlies have played 4-0 to the under this season as a home favorite of -3.0 to -11.0 and they allowed 100 points or fewer on each occasion. Memphis is #2 in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. However, the Grizzlies are just 14th in offensive efficiency and the Lakers are #19. These teams met 3 times this season and those contests played 1-0-2 to the under with neither team shooting the ball particularly well. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 237 | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Kings 8:30 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Over 237.0 (5*) Golden State has played 28-11-2 to the over on the road this season with a combined average of 240.7 points scored per game. Those results also include 12-1 to the over if their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 with an average of 242.5 points scored per game. Golden State has been red-hot offensively over their previous 7 contests while scoring 128.7 points per game, shot 50.6% from the field, and converted a superb 42.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. Sacramento has played 13-4 to the over this season when facing teams like Golden State who shoot 36% or better from 3-point territory. The Kings have averaged 123.4 points scored per game at home this season while also shooting 50.7% from the field and 38.1% from beyond the 3-point line. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-15-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 101-97 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Over 216.5 (5*) New York has played 9-0 to the over in the last 9 as a conference away underdog and when there was a total of 226.5. The average total in those 8 contests was 221.4 and there were a combined 239.6 points scored per game. The Knicks defense has been a bit soft throughout their last 5 regular season contests in allowing opponents to score 121.6 points per game while they shot 51.4% from the field and made 46.4% of their 3-point shot attempts. However, during that identical stretch, New York also scored 125.4 points per game, shot 49.7% from the floor, and made 39.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. Cleveland has shot 47% or better in 12 of its last 13 games. The Cavaliers have also scored 114 points or more in 11 of their previous 14 games. The Cavs have also made 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 contests in addition to making 83.3% of their free throws. Cleveland went over the total in both home games versus New York this season and there was a combined 237.5 points scored per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Knicks +5.5 (5*) The Knicks have been a very good road team this season by going 24-17 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in those contests. Furthermore, New York has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a conference away underdog. The Knicks have also gone a noteworthy 11-2 SU this season when playing in their 6th game or fewer over the last 14 days like they’ll be doing today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Knicks won this game outright. However, I’m not going to get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me the New York Knicks plus the points. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Boston 3:30 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Boston -9.0 (5*) Boston was a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta during regular season action and won by an average of 13.3 points per game. During those 3 wins, Boston averaged 126.7 points scored per game, shot 52.2% from the field, and made 46.5% of its 3-point attempts. As a matter of fact, Boston made 20 or more 3-point shots in all 3 of those games. The Celtics are #2 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Atlanta is #20 defensively. Since game 42 of this season, Boston has gone 13-1 ATS versus teams like Atlanta who allow opponents to shoot 48% or better on the year, and with the Celtics outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Atlanta has allowed 120 points or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Boston has scored 120 points or more in 7 of its last 10. Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s overtime loss at the Lakers in a game they squandered a double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Since 4/10/2022, Minnesota has gone 0-7 SU&ATS at home when playing on exactly 2 days rest. Furthermore, the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been a great home favorite this season while 8-17 ATS and 12-13 SU in that role. That also includes 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU during its last 7 as a home chalk. Oklahoma City is coming off Wednesday’s 123-118 win at New Orleans and did so as a 5.5-point underdog. The Thunder have now gone 48-25 ATS (65.8%) as an away underdog since the start of last season and that includes 21-11 ATS this year. Give me the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*) The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game. Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game. Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered. Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite. |
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04-13-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Tigers (Turnbull) @ Blue Jays (Bassitt) 7:07 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Toronto -1.5 (-115) (5*) Detroit enters today on a 6-game losing streak and is 2-9 on the season. The Tigers have been anemic offensively while having scored 3 runs or fewer in 8 of 11 games. Their bullpen picked up right where it has left off the past couple seasons and is nothing short of disastrous. Spencer Turnbull will be on the mound for Detroit and he’s posted a massive 13.50 ERA/2.25 WHIP in 2 starts. After a terrible season debut, Chris Bassitt turned in a quality start for Toronto in his last outing. Since 2021, Bassitt has gone an extremely profitable 25-4 in his team starts versus opponents with a losing record. The Toronto bullpen has been very good during the first 2 weeks of the season. The Blue Jays have been red-hot of late after winning 7 of their last 8. Give me the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*) Oklahoma City has gone 1-2 SU versus New Orleans this season. However, both losses came by exactly 3 points. Since the 2021-2022 season began, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in their games at New Orleans. New Orleans is 7-15 ATS this season versus opponents like Oklahoma City that average 116.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, the Thunder have gone 47-25 (65.3%) ATS as a road underdog. OKC is coming off a 115-100 win over Memphis in their regular season finale. The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS (75%) this season following a win by 10 points or more in their previous contest, and they won 11 of those 20 games straight up. Give me Oklahoma City as an underdog. |
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04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Royals (Keller) @ Rangers (Eovaldi) 8:05 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (+128) (5*) Kansas City is 3-9 and averaging a paltry 2.9 runs scored per game. Since 2021, the Royals are a dismal 1-7 at Texas. Brad Keller has 2 starts versus Texas since 2020 and had a horrible 14.14 ERA/3.00 WHIP during those outings. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Kansas City bullpen that has compiled a terrible 7.98 ERA/1.77 WHIP on the road. Texas is coming off last night’s 8-5 home win over Kansas City. The Rangers have now scored 8 runs or more in 5 of 11 games this season. Texas 6-2 at home thus far in 2023 while averaging 6.9 runs scored per game and hit 13 home runs while doing so. The Rangers bullpen has been lights-out at home with a brilliant staff 1.42 ERA/0.88 WHIP. Give me the Rangers as a run-line favorite. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +6.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Chicago +6.5 (5*) The Bulls finished the regular season strong by going 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS during their last 17 games. Chicago has also gone a very profitable 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 11 away games. Chicago has also shot 51.1% or better in 7 of its last 10 games. Give me Chicago as an underdog. |
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04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 231.5 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ LA Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Over 231.5 (5*) The Lakers went over in each of their final 8 regular season contests and there was a combined average of 239.7 points scored per game. Los Angeles has scored 118 points or more in their last 7 games. Minnesota will be playing their 3rd game in days. The Timberwolves have played 15-2 to the under this season when cast into that identical situation and there was a combined average of 246.3 points scored per game. Both teams like to play at a brisk offensive pace with the Lakers ranked #5 in that category and Minnesota #7 through 82 regular season games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 7:00 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Over 226.5 (5*) Miami has seen each of their last 7 at home go over the total and there was a combined 240.7 points scored per game. Miami also played 5-0 to the over during their previous 5 games overall. Atlanta has played 10-2 to the over this season on the road when the total was 211.0 to 229.5 and there was a combined 233.9 points scored per contest. Atlanta also played 4-0-1 to the over during its final 5 regular season contests and there was a combined 248.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5.5 v. Heat | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Heat 7:10 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Hawks +5.5 (5*) Atlanta failed to cover their last 2 regular season games. However, the Hawks are an extremely profitable 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games immediately following 2 consecutive ATS losses and averaged outscoring those opponents by 10.5 points per contest. Miami is coming off a 123-100 win over Orlando and they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Heat have gone 0-9 ATS and 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as a favorite of 2.5 or more following an ATS cover in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Give me the Hawks plus the points. |
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04-10-23 | Brewers +135 v. Diamondbacks | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Brewers (Miley) @ Diamondbacks (Gallen) 9:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Brewers +135 (5*) Zac Gallen has made 2 uninspiring starts this season with a lofty 7.59 ERA/1.59 WHIP. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.50 ERA so far and they allowed 10 home runs in 38.0 innings of work. Milwaukee’s Wade Miley was terrific in his only start of 2023 while pitching 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball against the Mets. Milwaukee has gone 7-1 in their last 8 and allowed just 2.4 runs per games while shutting out opponents on 3 separate occasions. Lastly, the Brewers bullpen has been nearly flawless to start the season with a staff 0.84 ERA and they’re 100% on save opportunities. Give me the Brewers as a money line home underdog. |
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04-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies +132 | 4-7 | Win | 132 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Matz) @ Rockies (Marquez) 8:40 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Rockies +132 (5*) Steven Matz is 0-3 in his career team starts at Colorado with a large 9.20 ERA/1.77 WHIP and allowed 4 home runs in only 14 2/3 innings pitched. The Cardinals aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball to start the season and they’ve scored 2 runs or fewer in 4 of its last 5 games. German Marquez is 5-0 in his career home starts versus St. Louis with a sparkling 2.12 ERA. National League teams like Colorado who are a money line home underdogs of +100 or greater that allows 5.5 or more runs per game, and they’re facing a National League opponent like St. Louis that allows 4.5 or more runs per game, resulted in those home underdogs going an extremely profitable 24-10 since 2019. The average money line for those home underdogs was +136.5 and $100 bettors made a net profit of $2,280. Give me the Rockies as a money line underdog. |
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04-10-23 | Padres +130 v. Mets | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Padres (Darvish) @ Mets (Scherzer) 7:10 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Padres +130 (5*) I had to do a double take when seeing the Mets as this cheap a home favorite with Max Scherzer as their staring pitcher. However, after delving into the data the money line price makes more sense to me. Since 2020, Padres pitcher Yu Darvish is 4-0 in his team starts versus the Mets with a superb 1.37 ERA/0.68 WHIP. The Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 including a current 3-game win streak. Since last year, Max Scherzer is 0-2 in his team starts versus San Diego with a sizable 7.59 ERA and he allowed an alarmingly high 5 home runs in just 10 2/3 innings pitched. Scherzer hasn’t been sharp in his only 2 starts this season with a 6.35 ERA and he allowed 4 home runs in 11 1/3 innings. By the way, the Padres have hit an impressive 15 home runs in their first 10 games this year. Give me the Padres as a money line underdog. |
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04-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -122 | 12-11 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Game# 973-974 Play On: Angels -122 (5*) Yusei Kikuchi is 2-6 in his career team starts versus the Angeles with a massive 9.61 ERA/2.22 WHIP and all those outing took place since 2019. Kikuchi failed to make it past 5.0 innings and each of those 8 starts. It also must be noted, Kikuchi allowed an alarmingly high 13 home runs during just 34 1/3 innings pitched in those 8 starts. The Angels are 3-0 during the day this season and outscored those opponents by an average of 6.4 runs scored per game. Left-hander Reid Detmers made 1 career start versus Toronto and that took place last season. Detmers pitched 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball during that outing. Since last season, Toronto has gone a poor 14-23 when facing left-handed starting pitchers. Give me the Angels as a money line favorite. |
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04-09-23 | Mariners -125 v. Guardians | 6-7 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Mariners (Kirby) @ Guardians (Plesac) 1:40 PM ET Game# 969-970 Play On: Mariners -125 (5*) I ordinarily don’t like fading teams that are on the cusp of being swept in a series and especially when playing at home. However, Seattle is 6-0 in their last 6 at Cleveland. Dating back to last season, Seattle is 19-3 in their last 22 games as a money line road favorite of -120 or greater. Since 2021, Cleveland has gone 68-31 as a money line home favorite of -110 or greater. Unfortunately for them, that’s not the role they’ll assume today. Conversely, the Guardians are just 10-17 as a money line home underdog of +100 or greater since last season, and that includes 4-9 following a loss in their previous game. Give me the Mariners as a money line favorite. |
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04-09-23 | White Sox v. Pirates OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
White Sox (Kopech) @ Pirates (Oviedo) 1:35 PM ET Game# 975-976 Play On: Over 9.0 (5*) Both starting pitchers are coming off terrible 2023 debut starts. The teams split the first 2 games of this series with final scores of 11-5 and 13-9. After going under in their season opener, the White Sox have played 8-0 to the over and there was a combined average of 14.1 runs scored per game. The White Sox bullpen has been brutal through their first 9 games with a staff 8.82 ERA/2.14 WHIP. Since the start of last season, Chicago has played 25-13 to the over in away day games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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04-08-23 | Royals v. Giants -139 | 6-5 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Royals (Singer) @ Giants (Manaea) 4:05 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Giants -139 (5*) The Royals are coming off last night’s 3-1 win in the opening game of this series. Despite that win, Kansas City is a poor 2-6, been shutout 3 times, and scored 3 runs or fewer 6 times. The Royals have an abysmal .555 OPS this season while the Giants are at .822 thus far. Since 2020, the Royals are 3-12 as a money line away underdog of +100 to +144 immediately following a road win. San Francisco has gone a perfect 3-0 in 2023 following a loss and won by an average of 7.0 runs per game. The Giants slated starter Sean Manaea has gone an extremely profitable 37-12 in his career team starts as a home money line favorite of -110 or more. Give me the Giants as a money line favorite. |
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04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -141 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
Cardinals (Flaherty) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 8:10 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Brewers -141 (10*) The Cardinals Jack Flaherty has made 6 starts at Miller Park in Milwaukee since 2019, and he posted an alarmingly high 7.92 ERA/1.92 WHIP. The Cardinals enter the series on a current 3-game losing streak in which they were outscored 17-7. The Brewers enter this 3-game series versus NL Central rival St. Louis riding a 5-game win streak and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 42-12. Since 2021, Brandon Woodruff has made 4 starts versus St. Louis and recorded a microscopic 0.73 ERA during those outings. The Brewers bullpen has been terrific thus far in 2023 with a staff 1.33 ERA/0.93 WHIP. Give me the Brewers as a money line favorite. |
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04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -127 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Astros (Urquidy) @ Twins (Gray) 4:10 PM ET Game# 971-972 Play On: Twins -127 (5*) This money line jumped right off the board at me. It’s not often we see the Astros come up as an underdog and this is one of those occasions and it’s the first time in 2023. The Astros were just 6-9 during regular season action last season as a money line underdog of +100 to +140 last season when facing a team with a winning record. Houston is coming off an8-2 win over Detroit in their previous game. Since the start of last season, Houston was 12-16 immediately following a game in which they scored 8 runs or more. The Astros starter Jose Urquidy was shaky in his 2023 season debut while allowing 3 earned runs, 7 hits, and 2 home runs in just 4.0 innings pitched. Minnesota will start veteran right-hander Sonny Gray in their home opener. Gray had a successful season debut while pitching 5.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Give me the Twins as a money line favorite. |
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04-06-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 225 | 115-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Denver @ Phoenix 10:10 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Under 225.0 (5*) Phoenix enters today on a 6-game win streak while allowing 105 points or fewer on 5 of those occasions. The Suns have seen each of its last 3 at home go under and there was a combined average of 203.0 points scored per game. The Suns have also played 25-14 (64.1%) to the under in all home games this season. Denver has seen each of their last 10 all go under the total and there was a combined 217.6 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Miami @ Philadelphia 7:40 PM ET Game# 575-576 Play On: Under 220.0 (5*) Philadelphia has played 4-1 to the under in their last 5 and 7-2 under during its previous 9 games. The 76ers have seen both meetings versus Miami go under the total this season and with a combined average of 207.5 points scored per game. Furthermore, the 76ers have gone under the total in 3 consecutive contests whenever their total was 220.0 or less and with a combined average of 207.3 points scored per game. Miami has played 4-0 to the under this season in away contests in which there was a total of 220.0 or less and there was a combined average of 206.3 points scored per game. Lastly, these 2 teams are among the slowest offensive paced teams in the NBA with Miami ranking #29 and Philadelphia #27 in that category. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-05-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Royals | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Manoah) @ Royals (Greinke) 7:40 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) (5*) Since 2021, Zack Greinke has made 3 starts versus Toronto and posted an uninspiring 4.24 ERA/1.47 WHIP. The Royals are 1-4 to start the season and are averaging a paltry 2.8 runs per game. Their bullpen has been shaky thus far which is evidenced by a staff 5.03 ERA/1.63 WHIP. Alek Manoah is coming off a terrible start in the Blue Jays season opener at St. Louis, but he’s a terrific young pitcher regardless. Manoah has made 3 career starts versus Kansas City with all taking place since 2021 and compiled an excellent 0.45 ERA in 20.0 innings pitched. The Blue Jays bullpen has been solid to start the season with a staff 2.89 ERA. Give me the Blue Jays on the run-line. |
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04-04-23 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City @ Golden State 10:10 ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Oklahoma City +8.5 (5*) Golden State has been very good at home this season and will be facing a Thunder teams which has lost 5 of its last 7 games. However, OKC has gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS this season after a stretch in which they lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has gone an extremely profitable 47-24-1 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 20-10-1 ATS in that role this season. Give me Oklahoma City plus the points. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 121-103 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) Despite being 7.0 games ahead of the New Orleans in the standings and winning 15 of its last 21 games, Sacramento comes up as an underdog in tonight’s matchup. On the other hand, New Orleans is a red-hot 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. This is also a Pelicans team which has gone 25-13 SU at home. Additionally, New Orleans has gone 14-2 ATS this season when facing an opponent like Sacramento who has a 48.0% or greater field goal percentage defense and outscored them by 13.2 points per contest. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans have allowed 96 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 outing and just 100.3 points per game during that stretch. They may be catching the Kings at the right moment as they just recently clinched a playoff berth which ended a NBA longest postseason drought. There’s a high probability of a Sacramento flat spot tonight. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
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04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -133 | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Boston @ Philadelphia 8:10 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Philadelphia -133 (5*) Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS versus Philadelphia this season. Yet, the oddsmakers were unfazed by those results when consider they installed the 76ers as a favorite. Boston is coming off a 122-114 home win over Utah in a game they failed to cover as 14.0-point favorite. Philadelphia is 7-0 SU&ATS this season in their last 7 at home following a SU loss versus an opponent off a SU win and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per game. Give me Philadelphia as a money line favorite. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 132.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET Game# 711-712 Play On: Under 132.5 (10*) The only flaw that UConn has displayed defensively during their 5 NCAA Tournament games is allowing opponents to have an average of 19 free throw attempts per game. If you even want to label that as a flaw. However, San Diego State has been terrible from the free throw line during their 5 NCAA Tournament game while converting on just 63.4% of their free throw attempts. Otherwise, the Huskies have held all 5 of their opponents to 38.8% or worse while giving up a mere 59.2 points per contest. UConn has covered all 5 games in the big Dance. The Huskies have played 8-1 to the under this season when not playing at home and coming off covering each of their previous 3 games. San Diego State is a 7.5-point underdog at the time of this writing. The Aztecs have played 8-0 to the under since 12/17/2021 and there were a combined 125.1 points scored per game. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 72-71 buzzer beating win over FAU in a game that went over the total of 132.0. That snapped a string of 12 consecutive games going under the total for the Aztecs. As a matter of fact, they haven’t gone over the total in 2 straight games since January 10th. Furthermore, The Aztecs have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 contests following an over in their previous outing and there was a combined average of 121.6 points scored per game. The Aztecs have also gone under in their last 5 after allowing 70 points or more during its previous contest and there was a combined 118.2 points scored per game. According to Ken Pomeroy, San Diego State is #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UConn is #8. Additionally, UConn is #214 in adjust offensive temp and San Diego State is #270. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*) I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less. Give me Miami plus the points. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
FAU vs. San Diego State 6:09 PM ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Under 132.0 (5*) San Diego State has gone under the total in each of their previous 12 games. Those 12 contests averaged a combined 121.8 points scored per game. During that stretch, the Aztecs held opponents to a mere 57.0 points scored per game, 37.2% shooting from the field, and permitted to make only 23.4% of its 3-point shot attempts. It’s not like San Diego State was an offensive juggernaut throughout those 12 contests as they averaged just 64.8 points scored per game and shot an uninspiring 40.9% from the field and made just 31.9% of their 3-point shot attempts. FAU has seen its last 4 games go under the total whenever the number was 143.0 or less and there was a combined average of 125.0 points scored per game. The Owls allowed just 55.0 points per contest and held their opponents to 32.7% shooting during those 4 games. San Diego State gets a lot of praise for their staunch defensive play and rightfully so. However, FAU is quietly #30 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and that includes #11 in 2-point defensive shooting percentage (44.8%). The Owls are a very good 3-point shooting team, but they’ll be facing an opponent on Saturday that’s #2 nationally in defensive 3-point shooting percentage (27.8%). Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-31-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 227.5 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Denver @ Phoenix 10:40 PM ET Game# 577-578 Play On: Under 227.5 (5*) Denver has gone under in 7 straight contests with an average total of 230.0 and a combined 219.1 points scored per game. During their previous 5 contests the Nuggets allowed only 10.0 points per game. The Suns have been stout defensively during their previous 3 contests while allowing just 202.7 points scored per game. Phoenix is coming off a 107-100 win over Minnesota and that contest styed well under the total of 234.0. Denver is coming off a 107-88 loss to New Orleans and that game easily stayed under the total of 226.5. NBA teams like Phoenix that are playing in a contest with a total of 220.0 to 229.5 that went under the total by 24.0 points or more in their previous contest, versus an opponent like Denver who went under the total by 30.0 points or more during their last outing, resulted in those games playing 32-7 (82.1%) to the under since 1996. The average total in those 39 contests was 225.1 and there were a combined 213.6 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-31-23 | Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 229 | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Houston 8:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Under 229.0 (5*) Detroit has gone under the total in 7 consecutive road game. The average total in those 7 contests was 227.6 and there was a combined 217.0 points scored per game. The Pistons scored 107 points or fewer in each of those 7 away games. Houston has played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 at home. The Rockets have gone over the total in each of its previous 2 games. However, the Rockets have played 8-0 to the under this season when the total is between 224.5 and 237.5 and they’re coming off overs in their last 2 contests. The average total in those 8 contests was 230.9 and a combined 212.9 points were scored per game. NBA teams like Houston with a total of 220.0 or greater who saw a combined 235 points or more being scored in their previous contest, and both themselves and their opponent is being outscored by 7.0 or more points per game on the season, resulted in those situations playing 27-3 (90%) to the under since 1996. As a matter of fact, since the start of the 2020-8021 season this NBA totals betting angle has played 12-0 to the under. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-31-23 | Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 236.5 | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
LA Clippers @ Memphis 8:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Over 236.5 (5*) Throughout their previous 9 games Memphis has averaged 126.6 points scored per contest and shot a sizzling hot 51.8% from the field. On a negative note, the Grizzlies have allowed 121.4 points per contest and permitted opponents to shoot a combined 50.2% from the field during their last 5 games. The Clippers have played 6-1 to the over as a road underdog this season following overs in each of their previous 2 contests, and there was a combined average of 239.0 points scored per game. The Clippers have seen each of its previous 4 games go over the total and there was a combined average of 245.5 points scored per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-31-23 | Bulls v. Hornets UNDER 225 | 121-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Under 225.0 (5*) Chicago allowed 121 and 124 points in their last 2 games. The bulls have played 3-0 to the under this season following 2 consecutive contests in which they allowed 120 points or more and there was just a combined average of 211.0 points scored per game. On the other side of the coin is a Charlotte team which has played 14-4 to the under in their last 18 contests. These teams have met 3 times this season and each contest went under the total with a combined average of only 203.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-30-23 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Manoah) @ Cardinals (Mikolas) 4:05 PM ET Game# 987-988 Play On: Under 7.5 (5*) Toronto hurler Alec Manoah has pitched 8-0 to the under on the road in his career whenever there was a total of 7.0 or 7.5, and there was a combined average of 4.9 runs scored per game. The Blue Jays are a money line favorite of -120 at the time of this writing, and that’s significant from an MLB betting perspective. Manoah has pitched 12-1 to the under on the road during his young career when the Blue jays have a money line of +125 to -125. Manoah was sharp in 5 spring training starts with a 3.10 ERA/1.18 WHIP. Miles Mikolas looked brilliant in 3 spring training game starts while not allowing any earned runs in 12.0 innings of work. During 14 home starts last season, Mikolas posted a superb 2.38 ERA/0.84 WHIP and averaged 6.8 innings pitched per outing. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-29-23 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 235 | 100-107 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Phoenix 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Over 235.0 (5*) Phoenix has averaged 120.0 points scored per game throughout their previous 5 contests while also shooting a stellar 48.2% from the field and making 37.8% of its 3-point shot attempts. During that exact time frame, the Suns also averaged 93 field goal attempts per game which translated to a very fast pace even by NBA standards. On the negative side, Phoenix has also allowed 117.8 points per game and permitted opponents to shoot 49.1%. Minnesota has averaged 118.0 points scored per game while shooting 50.0% from the field and converting on 40.9% of its 3-point shot attempts over their previous 5 contests. During that precise stretch, they also allowed 118.2 points per game and permitted opponents to shoot 50.2% from the field and 37.2% from 3-point territory. The Timberwolves will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 days. Minnesota has played 7-0 to the over this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and it’s on the road. Those 7 contests produced an enormous 250.7 points combined being scored. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley +3 v. UAB | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State vs. UAB 9:30 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: Utah Valley State +3.0 (5*) Despite Conference USA having 2 teams (UAB, North Texas) playing in the NIT Semifinals, and another (FAU) making it to the NCAA Tournament Final 4, Utah Valley State strength of schedule for the season grades out tougher than that faced by UAB. UVSU has recorded NIT wins at New Mexico (22-12), at Colorado (18-17), and Cincinnati (23-12) to reach this point. The Wolverines have won non-conference road games this season over Oregon (21-15) and BYU (19-15) while also losing in overtime at Wake Forest (19-14). Furthermore, UVSU is #30 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. UAB has played the 301st toughest non-conference schedule. The Blazers 3 NIT wins have come over Southern Miss, Morehead State, and Vanderbilt. Not quite as strong of opponents that Utah Valley State has faced in the NIT thus far. Additionally, UAB has gone just 2-4 versus currently alive CUSA postseason teams North Texas and FAU. Give me Utah Valley State plus the points. |
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03-28-23 | Wisconsin v. North Texas -125 | 54-56 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show | |
North Texas @ Wisconsin 7:00 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: North Texas -125 (5*) We have an NIT Semifinal matchup in which a team from Conference USA (North Texas) is a slight favorite over a Big 10 opponent (Wisconsin) who’s had a winning tradition over the last 3 decades. The oddsmakers are sure making it inviting to take the underdog with a much larger brand name. Well, I’m not taking the bait. During their 3 NIT wins, North Texas has held opponents to a mere 55.7 points per game and a dismal 33.9% shooting. As a matter of fact, North Texas has allowed 55 points or fewer in regulation time during 7 of their last 8 games. They’re not only outstanding defensively, but they’re even more frustrating to playing against since they’re last nationally in both adjusted offensive tempo and average offensive time of possession. It’s not like the Mean Green will be facing an offensive juggernaut. Wisconsin has scored 64 points or fewer in 7 of their last 11 games and shot 36.2% or worse 5 times. Give me North Texas on the money line. |
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03-27-23 | Wolves +4.5 v. Kings | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Sacramento 9:40 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 99-96 win at Golden State and has now been victorious in 3 straight games. The Timberwolves are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 when playing with no rest and coming off a win. They were an underdog in all 4 of those contests while outscoring those favorites by 7.3 points per game. Sacramento is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite when facing an opponent playing with no rest and coming off a win. The Kings average point-spread in those contests was -3.5 and they were outscored by 8.8 points per game. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
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03-27-23 | Suns v. Jazz OVER 233.5 | 117-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Phoenix @ Utah 9:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Over 233.5 (5*) Utah has gone over in their last 4 at home and there was a combined 246.3 points scored per game. The Jazz have also played 7-1 to the over in their previous 8 games overall and there was a combined 242.3 points scored per game. Conversely, Phoenix has gone over in each of their previous 5 contests and there were a combined 239.6 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, Phoenix has played 15-4 to the over in road games whenever the total was 230.0 or greater and there was a combined 242.1 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*) San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game. Give me San Diego State. |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut -138 v. Gonzaga | 82-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Connecticut vs. Gonzaga 8:49 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Connecticut -138 (5*) Gonzaga is coming off an emotional 79-76 win over UCLA in which they nearly blew a 10-point lead with a little of 2 minutes to play, and they needed a go-ahead 3-point shot with 0:07 left to capture victory. That makes Gonzaga 3-0 versus UCLA since 2021. However, the Bulldogs have gone 0-2 SU&ATS in their last 2 immediately following a game against UCLA. There are some disturbing tendencies I’ve personally observed during Gonzaga’s first 3 NCAA Tournament games. They have been poor defensively during the last 5 minutes of games. They’ve also started slowly in each of those contests. They were down 13 at the half versus UCLA, trailed by 5 at the intermission versus TCU, and only led by 4 versus #14 seed Grand Canyon. Sooner or later those vulnerable tendencies will catch up to them and I’m predicting that will be the case when facing an excellent UConn team. UConn has been absolutely dominant in their 3 NCAA Tournament wins. The Huskies defeated Iona by 24, #19 St. Mary’s by 15, and #22 TCU by 23. Furthermore, they held those 3 opponents 61.0 points per game and just 36.1% shooting. During those 3 wins, UConn averaged 81.0 points scored per game, shot 52.9%, made a sizzling hot 44.8% of its 3-point shot attempts, and converted on 83.3% of their free throws. Lastly, Connecticut is 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Besides their 3 NCAA Tourney wins over non-conference opponents, they also beat #1 Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18. Give me Connecticut on the money line. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Kansas State | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
FAU vs. Kansas State 6:09 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: FAU +2.0 (5*) Kansas State is coming off a thrilling 98-93 overtime win versus Michigan State in Sweet 16 action in what was arguably the best game of the NCAA Tournament to date. Now the 15th ranked Wildcats are just a 2.0-point favorite over an opponent from Conference USA. That point-spread jumped right off the page at me. FAU has been very good defensively in their 3 NCAA Tournament wins while allowing only 63.3 points per game and opponents shot just a combined 38.0% from the field. Although Kansas State has faced the far more difficult schedule compared to FAU, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the Owls are still 34-3 this season which includes 33-2 in their last 35 games. Play on FAU plus the points. |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas OVER 148.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Xavier vs. Texas 9:45 PM ET Game# 645-646 Play On: Over 148.5 (5*) This NCAA Tournament started by seeing 33 of the first 44 games going under the total. That’s an absurd lopsided ration. However, since that time, games have played 9-3 to the over. I look for that over trend to continue in this matchup. Xavier is #7 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, #3 in 3-point shooting percentage (38.9%), and #33 in adjusted tempo which basically mean they like pushing the pace to a faster speed than normal. The Musketeers have scored 78 points or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Xavier has played 5-1 to the over in their last 6 whenever the total was 152.0 or less and there was a combined average of 156.3 points scored per game. Texas is #15 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. During their previous 3 contests, Texas averaged 76.0 points scored per game, shot 51.4% from the field and 77.4% from the free throw line. During that stretch, they also averaged 60.3 field goal attempts per game which translated to a brisk offensive pace. They’ll be facing an Xavier team which has had 60 or more field goal attempts in 6 of their last 8 games and will be a willing partner to play an up-tempo game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-24-23 | Princeton v. Creighton OVER 140.5 | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Princeton vs. Creighton 9:00 PM ET Game# 649-650 Play On: Over 140.5 (5*) This NCAA Tournament started by seeing 33 of the first 44 games going under the total. That’s an absurd lopsided ration. However, since that time, games have played 9-3 to the over. I look for that over trend to continue in this matchup. Princeton has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 whenever the total was 145.0 or less and there was a combined average of 152.8 points scored per game. Conversely, Creighton has played 5-0 to the over in their previous 5 contests whenever there was a total of 147.5 or less and there was a combined 156.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston -7.5 | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami vs. Houston 7:15 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Houston -7.5 (5*) I consider this to be a heavy number. What I mean by that is Houston seems to be a much bigger favorite than I anticipated against a very good Miami team who won the ACC regular season title. The oddsmakers are making it extremely alluring to take the underdog in this spot. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Taking Miami plus the generous number is a sucker bet in my opinion. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Alabama | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State vs. Alabama 6:30 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: San Diego State +7.5 (5*) Alabama very well might win it all. However, this is a dangerous game for them against a long athletic team like San Diego State who’s capable of beating any team in the country right now. Regardless, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset and graciously take the sizable number being given. Give me San Diego State plus the points. |
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03-23-23 | Gonzaga v. UCLA OVER 145.5 | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Gonzaga vs. UCLA 9:45 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On: Over 145.5 (5*) Gonzaga has scored 100 or more points 8 times this season, 82 points or more in 12 of their last 15 contests, and 88 points or more in 16 of 34 games versus Division 1 opponents this season. The Zags have also allowed 80 points or more on 10 separate occasions this season. The Bulldogs have faced UCLA in each of their previous 2 seasons and averaged 88.0 points scored per game while shooting a sizzling hot 57.5%. Gonzaga is coming off an 84-81 win over TCU. Gonzaga has played 4-0 to the over this season whenever the total was 156.0 or less and they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. Those 4 contests averaged a combined 165.4 points scored per game. UCLA is coming off a 68-63 win over Northwestern. The Bruins have played 5-0 to the over this season whenever the total was 147.0 or less and they allowed 63 points or fewer in their previous game. UCLA has played 9 games as a favorite and with a total of 140.0 or greater and they averaged 80.8 points scored per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-23-23 | Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 225.5 | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Under 225.5 (5*) New Orleans has played 13-1 to the under in their last 14 games when there’s been a total of 225.0 or greater. Those games had an average total of 231.5 and there was a combined average of just 217.5 points scored per contest. The Pelicans have also gone under in their last 3 regardless of the total and there was a combined 217.3 points scored per game. Charlotte has played 8-1 to the under in their last 9 away games. That includes 4-0 under in their previous 4 on the road with a combined (217.7 points scored per game. The Hornets are next to last in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’ll be facing a New Orleans team today who ranks #20 in that same category. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State -120 v. Kansas State | 93-98 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Kansas State 6:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Michigan State-120 (5*) The first thing worth noting is we have a #7 seed in Michigan State who opened as and continues to be a favorite versus a #3 seed like Kansas State. The oddsmakers are sure enticing you to take the higher seeded underdog. However, it’s seldom that easy when it comes to sports betting. If it looks to good to be true more times than not it is. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has led his Spartans team to 25 NCAA Tournament appearances during his 28-year tenure. During that time, Michigan State has an outstanding 53-23 (.697) NCAA Tournament record, reached the Final Four 6 times, made it to 2 National Championship game, and was crowned the NCAA Tournament Champion in 2000. On the other side of the coin is first year Kansas State head coach Jerome Tang. I can’t ignore the huge NCAA Tournament advantage Michigan State will have over Kansas State in this specific area. Kansas State did play in arguably the best conference in the country this season. However, after sending 7 teams to the NCAA Tournament only Kansas State and Texas remain standing. Conversely, Michigan State has played the 5th strongest schedule in College Basketball this season. Give me Michigan State on the money line. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State OVER 138 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Kansas State 6:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Over 138.0 (5*) Michigan State is #6 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage while making 38.7 of those attempts. The Spartans have scored 72 points or more in 6 of their previous 8 games. The Spartans will be facing a Kansas State team that ranks #291 nationally in free throw attempts allowed. Michigan State is a very good free throw shooting team which is evidenced by their shiny 75.7% conversion rate. The Spartans have played 6-2 to the over in their last 8 whenever the total was 137.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 150.1 points scored per game during regulation time. Kansas State has played 4-1 to the over in their last 5 and with a combined average of 151.4 points scored per game. The Wildcats have scored 73 points or more in 6 of its last 7 games. Similar to Thursday’s opponent, Kansas State is also a very food free throw shooting team at 75.2%. On a negative note, the Wildcats have allowed 74.4 points per game over its last 5 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah Valley State @ Cincinnati 9:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Utah Valley State (Pick) (5*) This line jumped right off the screen at me. We have a mid-major conference team like Utah Valley State as a pick against a power conference school like Cincinnati, which is coming off impressive wins in the first 2 rounds of the NIT. The first question I asked myself is, why. Then after delving into both teams’ resumes, I was able to come up with more than satisfactory answers. At this point of the season, you would think Cincinnati would have faced a far tougher schedule than Utah Valley State. Although the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, there’s not the sizable disparity I would have thought. As a matter of fact, Utah Valley State has quality non-conference road wins this season at Colorado, New Mexico, BYU, and Oregon. They also fell in overtime at Wake Forest, who had a winning season. UVSU has shot 50% or better in 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also held opponents to 40% or worse shooting during 8 of its previous 10 games. Give me Utah Valley State. |
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03-22-23 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 234 | 118-114 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 234.0 (5*) Toronto has gone over the total in their last 5 games as a favorite like they’ll be this evening. The Raptors have shot 48.5% or better in 6 of its last 8. However, they’ve also permitted their opponents to shoot 50% or better in 8 of its last 10 games. The Raptors season analytics indicates they are #25 in the NBA when it pertains to adjusted offensive tempo. Nonetheless, they’ve drastically changed their style of late and amassed 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. Indiana has shot 48% or better in 8 of their previous 12 games. They’ve also allowed their opponents to shoot 48% or better during 10 of their previous 15 games. The Pacers have scored 121 points or more in 9 of their last 12. Indiana has also given up 115 points or more in 8 straight games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-20-23 | Kings v. Jazz OVER 239.5 | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Utah 9:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Over 239.5 (5*) Sacramento is #1 in the NBA when pertaining to adjusted offensive efficiency while Utah is #9. Neither team in this matchup is very good defensively. The Kings are #25 in defensive efficiency while Utah is #24. Sacramento has scored 122 points or more in 11 of their last 13 games. The kings have also shot 48% or better during 15 of its previous 18 contests. Sacramento has shot a sizzling 43.4% from beyond the 3-point line throughout their last 5 contests and averaged an extremely high 18 makes per game. Conversely, Utah has allowed their last 5 opponents to make an alarmingly high 43.4% of their 3-point shot attempts which includes 18 makes per contest. Sacramento has played 7-3 to the over in their last 10 when the total was 238.0 or greater and there was a combined 257.5 points scored per game. Utah has scored 115 points or more in their last 6 and 5 of those contests went over the total. Those 6 contests averaged a combined 239.7 points scored per game. The Jazz have played at a frenetic offensive pace over their previous 5 while averaging 94 field goal attempts per game. The Jazz are currently a 5.0-point underdog in tonight game. Utah has played 24-12 (67%) to the over as an underdog this season. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4 | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
TCU vs. Gonzaga 9:40 PM ET Game# 851-852 Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (5*) Granted TCU comes from the Big 12 which has been widely recognized as the best conference in college basketball this season. However, the Horned Frogs started the season 13-1 and have gone an uninspiring 9-11 since. Furthermore, TCU has gone 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 immediately following a win which speaks to their inconsistent play during the season’s 2nd half. Yes, Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference that from top to bottom is much inferior to the Big 12. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs posted non-conference wins this season over NCAA Tournament teams Kent State, Kentucky, #13 Xavier, #1 Alabama, and Michigan State. As a matter of fact, 4 of those 5 opponents are in the Round of 32. The Zags also posted a pair of wins conference rival #19 St. Mary’s. They also faced #5 Texas, #11 Baylor, and #3 Purdue. So, they’re not going to be phased in the least going up against #22 TCU. Gonzaga has shot an extremely impressive 48% or better in each of their previous 14 games and 50% or better during 13 of its previous 16 contests. Give me Gonzaga minus the points. |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule. Give me FAU minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*) These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota. Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*) I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category. Give me Northwestern plus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Arkansas v. Kansas -3.5 | 72-71 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
Arkansas vs. Kansas 5:15 PM ET Game# 809-810 Play On: Kansas -3.5 (5*) Despite Thursday’s NCAA Tournament 73-63 win over Illinois, Arkansas has gone an uninspiring 4-6 throughout its last 10 games. The Razorbacks are a very good defensive teams but they have some shortcomings offensively. This Kansas team is jelling at the most opportune time of the season. They’ve gone 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS during their previous 12 games. Their only 2 losses during that stretch came versus #5 Texas. As a matter of fact, if you take away those 2 versus Texas than Kansas has shot 50.9% or better in 7 of its last 9 contests. The Jayhawks are extremely balanced while ranking #25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #7 defensively. Give me Kansas minus the points. |
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03-18-23 | Furman v. San Diego State -5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Furman vs. San Diego State 12:10 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (5*) Furman has averaged 10 makes per game from 3-point territory this season. However, since Game 16, San Diego State is 9-0 SU&ATS versus opponents that average 8 or more made 3-point shots per games and won by an average of 9.7 points per contest. San Diego State is more athletic, bigger, and better defensively than Furman. The Aztecs have allowed a mere 54.8 points scored per game and held opponents to a cumulative 35.3% shooting throughout their previous 5 games. The Aztecs are #9 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Furman is #178 in that same category while facing a much softer schedule than San Diego State has faced. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |