Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Ohio | 24-45 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ Ohio 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (5*) Ohio is coming off a 24-17 home win over Northern Illinois and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bobcats are now 3-1 in conference action. However, there’s a red flag when considering they’re allowing 486.0 yards per game in those contests. Buffalo got off to a terrible 0-3 start in the non-conference portions of their schedule. Nonetheless, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 and all versus conference opponents. Their most recent victory was a 34-27 home victory over Toledo. During their last 4 contests, the Bulls defense is allowing 15.3 points and 349.3 yards per game while also forcing 11 turnovers. Any conference road favorite of 1.5 or more that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponenta with a win percentage of less than .666 and off a conference SU underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin came by an enormous 23.7 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Browns 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Under 45.5 (5*) The Browns are coming off a 23-20 division loss at Baltimore that dropped their season record to 2-5 (.286). After an 0-2 start to the season, Cincinnati has rebounded to win 4 of its last 5 to better than season record to 4-3. NFL home teams (Browns) with a total of 42.5 to 48.0 that are coming off a division loss in which they allowed 21 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Bengals) with a winning record, resulted in those contests playing 27-2 (93.1%) to the under since 2013. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*) The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4. NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams. Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-30-22 | Bears v. Cowboys -10 | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (5*) Chicago is coming off a huge 33-14 upset win at New England this past Monday night in a game they closed as a 9.5-point underdog. Since 2020, the Bears have gone 0-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog following an away win in their previous game and lost by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Since the start of last season, Dallas has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite when facing teams with a losing record. The Cowboys won those 7 contests by an average of 18.6 points per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL in sacks with 29. Conversely, Chicago is dead last in the NFL in sacks allowed with 27, and that’s with an extremely mobile quarterback in Justin Fields. This isn’t exactly a good matchup for a Bears offense against an outstanding Dallas defense that allows just. That’s especially so if they fall behind by more than one score since their passing offense is also dead last in the NFL. NFL home favorites of 7.5 or greater (Dallas) with a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent (Chicago) coming off an away underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average victory margin came by an enormous average of 23.9 points per game. Give me Dallas minus the points. |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Carolina +4.0 (5*) Carolina showed a ton of heart and character in last Sunday’s 21-3 home win over Tampa Bay in a gme they closed as a 13.0-point underdog. Atlanta received a dose of reality in last week’s 35-17 loss at Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. NFL away underdogs of 4.5 or less (Carolina) in Games 2 through 16 with a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 7.0 or more and they have a win percentage of .400 to .490, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.5 or less going 15-0 ATS since 1981. They also went 13-1-1 SU as well. Give me Carolina plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +4 v. South Carolina | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Missouri @ South Carolina 4:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Missouri +4.0 (5*) Missouri is coming off an uninspiring 17-14 home win over Vanderbilt and they now possess a season record of 3-4. However, their previous 3 losses came by a combined 14 points versus Auburn, Florida, and #1 Georgia. Since a 40-12 loss at Kansas State, Missouri has allowed just 19.6 points and 319.8 yards per game during their last 5 contests. Missouri enters this game having gone 10-18 SU in their last 28 road games and that includes 0-3 this season. South Carolina is on a current 4-0 SU&ATS run. By doing so they’ve cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season. Their most recent win came at home 30-24 over Texas A&M. With all being considered, this is an extremely fishy line. We have a Top 25 teams at home laying a short number versus an opponent with a losing record. When it looks too easy in sports betting, more times than not it isn’t. College Football Road Underdogs of 9.5 or less (Missouri) with a losing record who are coming off a conference win by 7 points or fewer, and they’ve won 16 or fewer of their last 28 away games, versus an opponent (South Carolina) with a win percentage of .250 or better that scored 20 points or more during its previous game, resulted in those road underdogs of 9.5 or less going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin for those 13 road underdogs came by 10.9 points per game. Give me Missouri plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1. Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below. Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State -15 v. Penn State | 44-31 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Penn State 12:00 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Ohio State -15.0 (5*) Penn State is coming off an impressive 45-17 home win over Minnesota which improved their season record to 6-1. However, the sportsbooks apparently weren’t swayed by that result as they’ve made the Nittany Lions a better than 2-touchdown home underdog against #2 Ohio State (7-0). After failing to cover their first 2 games of the season, Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS since with an average victory margin of 41.8 points per game. College Football away favorites of 13.5 to 21.0 with a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Penn State) with a win percentage of .272 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those road favorites withing that point-spread parameter going 23-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average margin of victory in those 23 contests came by 29.2 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus the points. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU OVER 63 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 26 m | Show | |
East Carolina @ BYU 8:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Over 63.0 (5*) BYU has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing an average of 40.3 points and 562.3 yards per game. The Cougars went under the total in a loss at Liberty in their previous game. BYU has played 2-0 to the over this year following an under in its previous contest and there was a combined average of 74.0 points scored per game. BYU has scored 35 points or more in 4 of 8 games this season and shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball on a suspect East Carolina defense. The East Carolina offense has been humming while averaging 33.5 points and 481.3 yards per game. The Pirates went under the total in their previous game. However, they’ve gone 3-0 to the over this year immediately following an under and there was a combined average of 76.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-28-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida International +6.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech @ FIU 8:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: FIU +6.5 (5*) Louisiana Tech has gone a dismal 1-5 versus FBS teams this season and allowed 31 points or more in each contest. Additionally, they allowed 38 points or more on 5 of those 6 occasions. During those 6 games the Bulldogs committed an alarmingly high 15 turnovers. That’s especially concerning when considering FIU has forced 7 turnovers during its last 2 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a 42-41 home loss to Rice in their previous game. Since 2020, Louisiana Tech is 0-6 SU&ATRS on the road following a loss in their previous game. FIU is far from a good team. However, they’re coming off a confidence building 34-15 win at Charlotte in their previous game and racked up a season high 453 yards of total offense. That win improved their season record to 3-4 overall and 2-4 versus FBS teams. This is a case of taking the lesser of 2 evils and based on all the above, there’s plenty of betting value on the home underdog in this contest. Give me FIU plus the points. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 45 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show | |
Ravens @ Tampa Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Under 45.0 (5*) Tampa Bay has been a one-dimensional offensive team since their running game has been anemic 49.8 yards rushing per contest while averaging of late. During their last 5 games, they’ve averaged a mere 49.8 yards rushing per contest on 2.6 yards per attempt. On some positive notes, The Bucs haven’t committed a turnover in their last 3 games. Additionally, their defense has performed well over their last 3 contests while allowing just 291.3 yards per game, and they currently rank 7th in the NFL in yards allowed per game this season. Tampa Bay has played 6-1 to the under this season. Conversely, Baltimore has gone under the total in their last 4 with a combined average of 41.5 points scored per game. Tampa Bay is coming off a 21-3 loss at Carolina in a game they closed as a large 13.0-point favorite. Since 2016, NFL home teams coming off a SU favorite loss by 14 points or more, and there was a total of 47.5 or less, resulted in those contests playing 25-1 (96.2%) to the under. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots OVER 40 | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Bears @ Patriots 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Over 40.0 (5*) Both teams will be able to run the ball successfully tonight which will set up glorious play action pass opportunities. Chicago is coming off a 12-7 home loss to Washing, but they did manage to amass 383 yards of total offense in that defeat. Chicago held the Commanders to a mere 86 yards passing in that contest. The Bears have played 4-0 to the over on the road since 2020 after allowing 150 yards or less passing yards in their previous game, and there was a combined average of 62.6 points scored per contest. New England’s starting quarterback Mac Jones returns tonight after missing the last couple of games due to injury. New England has played 7-3 to the over at home when Mac Jones has been their starting quarterback. The Patriots have scored 24 points or more in each of their last 4. New England is 3-0 to the over in their last 3 whenever there was a total of 45.5 or less and there was a combined average of 55.7 points scored per game. The Patriots will be facing a Chicago team which is averaging only 15.5 points per game this season. New England has played 6-0 to the over since 2020 whenever facing an opponent that averages 17 or fewer points per game and there was a combined average of 54.0 points scored per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-24-22 | Stars v. Senators -109 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Ottawa 7:05 PM ET Game# 13-14 Play On: Ottawa -109 (5*) Dallas is coming off Saturday’s 5-2 win at Montreal which improved their season money line record to 4-1. After dropping their first 2 games of the season, Ottawa has ripped off 3 straight wins with all coming at home and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 18-9. Since the start of the 2018-2019 season, NHL home teams that are coming off wins in each of their previous 3 games with all those played at home, versus an opponent coming off a road win in which they scored 4 goals or more, resulted in the home teams going 20-6 (76.9%) on the money line. The home team average money line in those 26 situations was +102.2 and they outscored the away teams by an average of 1.7 goals per game. Give me the Ottawa Senators on the money line. |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | 10-16 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Dolphins -7.0 (-120) (5*) The Dolphins will be desperate after spoiling their 3-0 start and losing each of their previous 3 games. They will be facing a Steelers team off a huge 20-18 upset win at home versus Tampa Bay and they did so as a 9.5-point underdog. Since 1998, NFL home favorites of 6.5 or greater (Dolphins) playing before Game 14, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off a SU win by 6 points or fewer and as an underdog ranging from 7.0 to 14.0, resulted in those sizable home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin came by an enormous 22.3 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers UNDER 49 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Under 49.0 (5*) San Francisco is coming off a disappointing performance in last week’s 28-14 loss at Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite. The 49ers have played 5-1 to the under this season and that includes 3-0 under if the number was 40.0 or higher. The latter 3 contests produced just a combined average of 32.0 points scored per game. San Francisco has also played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 following a SU favorite loss and there was a combined average of 36.8 points scored per game. All 5 of those contests took place since last season. The 49ers defense has been stout thus far while allowing just 308 yards or fewer in all 6 of their games. Since 2015 NFL home teams coming off a SU favorite loss by 14 points or more went 41-5 (89.1%) to the under in their next game. Additionally, if they allowed 31 points or fewer during that previous SU favorite loss, this betting angles improves to a perfect 15-0 to the under. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*) Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry. Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game. Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Cowboys 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Lions +6.5 (5*) NFL away underdogs of between 6.5 and 10.0 (Lions) that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they held scoreless, and they’re facing an opponent (Cowboys) with a season win percentage of .800 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-1 ATS since 1984. Furthermore, those underdogs also went 9-3 SU during those contests. Give me the Lions plus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals -6.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Bengals -6.5 (5*) NFL home favorites (Bengals) of between 4.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU win, versus an opponent (Falcons) with a win percentage ranging from .450 to .550 and they’re coming off an underdog SU win by 14 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 12-1 ATS since 1993. The home favorites also won all 13 of those contests SU and by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per game. Give me the Bengals minus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Packers @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Packers -4.5 (5*) NFL favorites of 4.0 or greater (Packers) with a win percentage of .538 or worse that are coming off back-to-back SU favorite losses, and they’re playing after Game 5, resulted in those favorites going 12-1 ATS since 2003. Give me the Packers minus the points. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota +5 v. Penn State | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*) Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright. We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-22-22 | Ole Miss v. LSU -120 | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Ole Miss @ LSU 3:30 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: LSU -120 (5*) This looks like an absolute sucker play. We have a 7-0 Ole Miss team that’s ranked #7 in the most recent college football AP Poll that’s an underdog versus an unranked 2-loss LSU team. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this matchup. It’s rarely that easy when it comes to sports betting, and when it looks too easy it rarely is. Give me LSU on the money line. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon -6 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon -6.0 (5*) The #10 Oregon Ducks have reeled off 5 consecutive wins since suffering a humiliating 49-3 loss to #1 Georgia in their season opener. They will be facing #9 UCLA that comes in with an unbeaten 6-0 record. Yet, it’s the lower ranked 1-loss Ducks who come up as a touchdown favorite versus the undefeated UCLA Bruins. It comes as no surprise to me that greater than 60% of tickets bet and money wagered has gone on UCLA. I am taking the contrarian approach in this one. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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10-22-22 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Texas Tech 3:00 PM ET Game# 387-388 Play On: Texas Tech -5.0 (5*) West Virginia has gone just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference away games. The Mountaineers are 3-3. However, they’ve allowed an alarming 38 points or more in 4 of 5 contests versus FBS teams. Texas Tech is coming off conference losses in each of their previous 2 games by scores of 41-31 at #11 Oklahoma State and 37-28 at #17 Kansas State. As a matter of fact, all 3 of Texas Tech losses have come versus ranked opponents with the other defeat at #23 NC State. The Red Raiders had last week off and will be ready to go on Saturday against a West Virginia. They’ve beaten West Virginia in each of the previous 3 meetings. The Red Raiders are a perfect 3-0 at home thus far which includes quality wins over Texas and Houston. College Football conference home favorites of -5.0 to -21.0 (Texas Tech) who’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (West Virginia) with a win percentage of .500 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-4 ATS (84.6%) since 2018. Give me Texas Tech minus the points. |
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10-21-22 | UAB v. Western Kentucky -120 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
UAB @ Western Kentucky 8:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Western Kentucky -120 (5*) UAB is coming off back-to-back Conference USA home wins over Charlotte 34-20 and Middle Tennessee State 41-14 in their last 2 games. However, UAB has gone 0-10 SU since 2013 after coming off consecutive games in which they scored 31 points or more. Additionally, UAB is 0-2 SU&ATS on the road this season while losing to Rice 28-24 and Liberty 21-14. They committed 6 turnovers in those defeats while only forcing 2 of their own. Western Kentucky is coming off a 35-17 win at Middle Tennessee State in their previous game and it improved their season record to 5-2. The Hilltoppers are averaging 40.0 points scored and 490.0 yards gained per game this season. WKU has also amassed 412 yards or more of total offense in each of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season. College Football home favorites coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (UAB) coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 73-8 SU (90.1%) since 2017. The SU betting angle takes on added value when considering how low the point-spread and money line of the home favorite Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. WKU has also forced 17 turnovers in their 7 games. Give me Western Kentucky on the money line. |
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10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 225 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Lakers 10:05 ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Over 225.0 (5*) The Lakers are coming off Tuesday’s 123-109 season opening loss at Golden State on Tuesday. The Lakers committed 21 turnovers and forced 18 of their own with many on both sides leading to easy transition made shots. That contests also had a combined 192 field goal attempts which equates to an extremely fast pace even by NBA standards. These teams played 3-1 to the over last season and there was a combined 226.5 points scored per game. The Clippers made 52.3% of their shots in those 4 contests and shot a torrid 47.3% from beyond the 3-point line. Those 4 head-to-head battles also produced an extremely high 61.5 combined free throws per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
Saints @ Cardinals 8:20 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (5*) Arizona has lost 8 consecutive home games and we’re talking about a team that qualified for the playoffs last season. Furthermore, 5 of those 8 home losses came as a favorite. The Cardinals are also coming off a 19-9 SU favorite loss at Seattle last week that dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 2-4. Conversely, since 2018, New Orleans has gone 27-8 SU and 24-11 ATS during its last 35 away games. That includes going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as an away underdog. The Saints have scored 25 points or more in their last 3 games. On the other hand, Arizona has scored 17 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Saints plus the small number. |
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10-18-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler) @ Padres (Darvish) 8:03 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Under 7.0 (5*) The Phillies Blake Wheeler has been in terrific form over his last 5 starts while posting a 1.32 ERA/0.66 WHIP. Wheeler has made 1 starts in each of the past 2 season versus San Diego and was dominating while pitching 14 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball. The Phillies bullpen hasn’t been great by any stretch the past couple of seasons but that hasn’t been the case in postseason action. The Phillies bullpen has a combined 2.19 ERA/0.85 WHIP in 7 playoff games thus far. The Padres Yu Darvish has made 2 starts versus the Phillies this year and compiled a very good 2.08 ERA during those outings. Darvish has pitched 9-4 to the under this season at home with a 2.60 ERA/0.88 WHIP and averaged 6.7 innings pitched per start. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-18-22 | Bruins v. Senators -125 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Bruins @ Senators 7:05 PM ET Game# 3-4 Play On: Senators -125 (5*) This has trap play written all over it. We have a Boston team that’s 3-0 as a money line underdog versus an 0-2 Ottawa team. Additionally, Boston is coming off a 5-3 win over a very good Florida team last night and they’ll be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Ottawa is coming off a 3-2 division loss at Toronto in their previous game on Saturday. The Senators will be playing on 2 days of rest and it will be their home opener tonight. NHL money line favorites of -200 or less coming off a division 1-goal loss, and they’re winless on the season, resulted in those money line favorites going 42-8 (80%) since 1996. Give me the Senators on the money line. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Chargers -4.0 (5*) The Chargers are coming off back-to-back away favorite ATS covers. Denver is coming off a 12-9 home loss to Indianapolis. NFL home favorites of -4.0 to -15.0 that are coming off 2 consecutive away favorite covers, and they’re facing a team (Broncos) coming off a non-division loss, resulted in those home favorites going 19-3 ATS since 1957. The home favorites also won all 22 of those contests straight up by an average of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Chargers minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*) Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played. NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | 9-19 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET Game#269-270 Play On: Cardinals -2.0 (5*) Arizona has unusual home/away splits to start the season. The Cardinals are 0-3 SU&ATS at home and 2-0 SU&ATS in away games. That road success isn’t out of the ordinary for Arizona. Since the start of last season, Arizona has gone 10-1 SU&ATS during regular season away games. The Cardinals are coming off a 20-17 loss to Philadelphia, but they covered as a home underdog of +5.5. That loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). Conversely, Seattle is coming off a 39-32 loss at New Orleans. NFL road favorites of 3.0 or less (Cardinals) with a win percentage between .250 and .600, and they’re coming off a SU loss but covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Seahawks) coming off a SU loss by 16 or less in which they also allowed 20 points or more, resulted in the away favorites of 3.0 or less going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average victory margin came by a decisive 16.1 points per game. Give me the Cardinals minus the small number. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots v. Browns -2.5 | 38-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Browns -2.5 (5*) The Browns are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Chargers. New England is coming off a 29-0 home win over Detroit. New England has gone 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. That includes 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as a road underdog. Any NFL team with a point-spread between +3.0 and -3.0 (Browns) that’s coming off a SU loss by 3 or less, versus an opponent (Patriots) that allowed 6 points or fewer in their previous contest, resulted in those teams going 38-11 SU&ATS (77.5%) since 1982. Give me the Browns minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Ravens v. Giants +6 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Ravens @ Giants 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Giants +6.0 (5*) The Giants are coming off a 27-22 upset win over Green Bay last Sunday. That win improved their season record to a surprising 4-1 (.800). They will be facing a Baltimore team coming off a narrow 19-17 home win over Cincinnati last Sunday. NFL non-division home underdogs playing after Game 3 that are coming off a SU win by 2 points or more, and they have win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a SU win by 28 or less, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1986. The average line in those 15 games was +3.1 and the underdogs won 12 of those contests straight up. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Jets @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Packers -7.5 (5*) Green Bay is coming off a 27-22 loss to the Giants in their previous game. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-2. The Jets are coming off a division home underdog SU win over Miami. NFL favorites of between 5.0 and 12.0 (Packers) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Jets) with a winning record and coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those NFL favorites going 25-4 ATS (86.2%) since 1990. If those favorites were coming off a loss, this betting angle improves to 9-0 SU&ATS with an average margin of victory coming by 19.0 points per game. Give me the Packers minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Nebraska v. Purdue -14 | Top | 37-43 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*) Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite. Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Memphis v. East Carolina -5 | 45-47 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
Memphis @ East Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: East Carolina -5.0 (5*) Since the start of the 2016 season, Memphis has gone an abysmal 0-12 ATS as a road underdog of 1.5 or greater and lost by an average of 18.8 points per game. Furthermore, Memphis is coming off a gut-wrenching 33-32 home loss to Houston in a game they led 32-19 with less than 2 minutes to play. It’s hard to imagine that not taking a mental toll on players and the coaching staff. East Carolina is coming off a disappointing 24-9 loss at Tulane which evened their record at 3-3. The Pirates responded very well after their previous 2 losses with wins over Old Dominion 39-21 and South Florida 48-28. The Pirates offense averages 475 yards gained per game this season and its defense allows 1 point per 18.6 yards gained which is terrific by college football standards. This is a great spot for the Pirates. Give me East Carolina minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ TCU 3:30 ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU -3.5 (5*) TCU is coming off a 38-31 road win over previously unbeaten Kansas and improved to a perfect 5-0 on the season. Oklahoma State is coming off a 41-31 home win over Texas Tech and they also remain undefeated. TCU will be out to revenge last season’s embarrassing 63-17 loss at Oklahoma State. This sets up a very profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any undefeated home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a conference win by 24 points or less, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .727 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter to go 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2001. Give me TCU minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State v. Texas -15.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Texas 12:00 ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Texas -15.5 (5*) Texas will be playing with big time revenge after losing to Iowa State in each of the previous 3 meetings. I say this because it’s unlikely that Texas will take their foot off the gas peddle even if they possess a comfortable lead. Texas will be facing an Iowa State team with anemic offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones have scored 11 points or fewer in 3 of their 6 games this season. Conversely, Texas has allowed 20 points or fewer in 5 of its 6 games. Additionally, the Texas offense unlike Iowa State has been dynamic on most occasions thus far. Case in point, the Longhorns have scored 34 points or more in 5 of 6 games with the lone exception coming in a 20-19 loss to #3 Alabama. This isn’t a good matchup for Iowa State even despite of their stellar defense. Give me Texas minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Auburn v. Ole Miss -14.5 | 34-48 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Ole Miss 12:00 PM ET Game# 179-180 Play On: Ole Miss -14.5 (5*) This is another big-time revenge situation for the favorite. Ole Miss will be highly motivated to snap a 6-game losing streak to Auburn and I truly believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The #9 Rebels enter this week with a perfect 6-0 record and they’re allowing just 14.5 points and 334.2 yards per game. Their offense is no slouch as well at 39.7 points and 490.3 yards per game. On the other side of the coin is an Auburn offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their last 4 games. During that 4-game stretch, the Tigers had an awful -9 turnover differential. Throughout that identical span, Auburn’s defense allowed 213.8 yards per game. They’ll have their hands full against an Ole Miss offense which averages 242 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per running attempt. Auburn doesn’t match up well at all in this SEC contest. Any college football conference home favorite (Ole Miss) of between 13.0 and 17.0 that’s coming off a conference away favorite cover in which they scored 41 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Auburn) whose coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those conference home favorites within that exact point-spread parameter going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by 24.3 points per game. Give me Ole Miss minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State v. Michigan -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan 12:00 ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Michigan -7.0 (5*) Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 10.0 (Michigan) that’s playing after Game 5 and is coming off 3 straight wins which all came over conference opponents, versus a team (Penn State) coming off a conference win by 10 or more and allowed 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorite 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2017. The average victory margin for the home teams came by 22.9 points per game. Give me Michigan minus the points. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Commanders -105 (5*) I went 4-1 during NFL Week 5 action and my only loser came on the Washington Commanders. Well, instead of responding emotionally and playing against them for revenge, I went the professional route when handicapping this game by simply staying on an even keel. The more I crunched the offensive and defensive numbers of these teams, it became clear to me that Washington was the way to go. Additionally, we have a home team with a better record (2-3), facing an opponent (1-4) on a current 4-game losing streak, yet the oddsmakers have this as an even game on the point-spread. Like I’ve stated on several occasions, think like an oddsmaker instead of a sports bettor, and it will prompt you into making more sound decisions. Chicago is coming off a 29-22 division road loss at Minnesota. That defeat dropped their season win percentage to .400. Play against any NFL home team (Bears) with a win percentage of between .250 and .400, and that team (Bears) is coming off a division away loss by 5 points or more, and they allowed 33 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 0-11 SU since 2018. Give me the Commanders in this contest. |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Mariners (Castillo) @ Astros (Valdez) 3:37 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Over 6.5 (10*) Seattle has played 17-3 to the over in their last 20 road games following a loss. The Mariners have also played 8-2 to the over this season on the road following an off day, and that includes 4-0 over if they scored 6 runs or more in their previous outing. Additionally, there was a combined 13.0 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 4 occurrences. The Mariners have played 6-1-1 to the over in their last 8 and there was a combined average of 11.9 runs scored per game. The Mariners bullpen has a terrible 8.18 ERA during their 3 postseason games thus far. The Astros Framber Valdez has gone 21-10 in his team starts this season. However, during his 2 starts versus Seattle he allowed 3 earned runs on both occasions. There were 5 combined home runs hit in Game 1 of this ALDS including 3 by Houston. Give me this game to go over the total. Any American League road team with a total of 7.0 or less that has a slugging percentage of .410 or less, and they’re coming off a game in which there was a combined 15 runs or more being scored, resulted in those games playing 34-10 (77.3%) to the over since 2018. There was a combined average of 9.1 runs scored per game in those previously mentioned 44 occurrences. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Padres (Darvish) @ Dodgers (Kershaw) 8:37 PM ET Game# 933-934 Play On: Under 7.0 (5*) Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been in outstanding form throughout each of their previous 5 starts. During those stretches, Darvish has a 1.64 ERA/0.76 WHIP while averaging 6.8 innings pitched per outing, and Kershaw compiled a 1.20 ERA/0.87 WHIP while averaging 6.0 innings per start. Darvish has amassed 9 quality starts in a row and in 4 starts versus the Dodgers this season he recorded a brilliant 2.52 ERA/0.92 WHIP. Kershaw has made 2 starts versus the Padres in 2022 and allowed only 1 earned run on 8 hits during 12.0 innings pitched. The Dodgers bullpen has a 2.10 ERA/1.00 WHIP over their last 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ Marshall 7:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Marshall -10.0 (5*) Marshall is coming off a 28-7 win in their previous game. UL-lafatette lost each of their previous 2 games by scores of 21-17 and 20-17. These results set up into a rare but unblemished college football angle which has gone unbeaten since 1981. Any college football home favorite of between 8.0 to 14.0 that’s coming off a win by 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses which each came by 4 points or less, resulted in those home favorites within these point-spread parameters going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average victory margin by the home favorites in those contests came by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me Marshall minus the points. |
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10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 6.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Mariners (Gilbert) @ Astros (Verlander) 3:37 PM ET Game# 927-928 Play On: Under 6.5 (5*) We have a pair of red-hot starting pitchers squaring of in Game 1 of this ALDS. Hence, the low total in this game. Seattle’s Logan Gilbert has been in excellent form over his last 6 starts while compiling a 1.75 ERA/1.06 WHIP during that stretch. Gilbert has pitched 3-1 to the under in his starts versus Houston this season with a 2.52 ERA/1.08 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has a very good 0.93 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games while recoding a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Justin Verlander has pitched 20-7 to the under in his starts this season with an exceptional 1.75 ERA/0.83 WHIP. Verlander is 3-0 in his home team starts versus Seattle this season and registered a brilliant 1.69 ERA/0.89 WHIP during those outings. The Houston bullpen has been lights out at home in 2022 with a staff 2.18 ERA/0.99 WHIP and they amassed 322 strikeouts in 268 2/3 innings pitched. Houston has played 35-19 (64.8%) to the under this season in day games. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +8 v. Chiefs | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Raiders +8.0 (5*) This sets up as a potential flat spot for Kansas City. They’re coming off a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay in their previous game which avenged their 2021 Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Next up for the Chiefs is what figures to be a mega-hyped home game versus a Buffalo team which is, and continues to be, the favorite to win the AFC. Sandwiched between those 2 contests is a game versus the 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders who they swept last season by blowout scores of 48-9 and 41-14. By the way, the Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 regular season games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or less. All 3 of those contests took place last season and Kansas City lost 2 of those games straight up. The Raiders are coming off their first win of the season after last week’s 32-23 win over Denver in a game they covered as a 2.5-point home favorite. Since the start of last season, Las Vegas has gone 4-0 SU&ATS as an away underdog of between 4.0 to 9.5. The average line in those 4 contests was +6.5 and the underdog Raiders won all 4 SU by an average of 6.3 points per game. Any NFL division away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off a dive home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.5 or less, and they’re facing a team that allowed 13 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1994. Those away underdogs also went 8-6-1 SU as well. Give me the Raiders plus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*) Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again. After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests. Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-22 | Steelers v. Bills -14 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Buffalo -14.0 (5*) Since winning at Cincinnati in their season opener, Pittsburgh has lost 3 consecutive games in a row. Rookie 1st round draft choice Kenny Pickett will make his first career NFL start on Sunday. He will be doing so in one of the most hostile environments that NFL visiting teams are subjected to. Pickett came on in relief of Mitch Trurbisky last week and went 10-13 for 120 yards. However, although that performance line looks impressive, he had 0 touchdown passes and his only 3 incompletions were all interceptions. During their 1-3 start to the season, Pittsburgh is being outgained by an average of 104.2 yards per game. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road following a SU loss in its previous contest and was outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game. The Bills will be missing a minimum 4 starters on Sunday. However, we’ve seen very little if any line movement, and they possess as good or better, quality depth than any team in the NFL. Buffalo is 3-1 thus far and is outgaining opponents by an average of 178.0 yards per game. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 7-0 SU and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 10.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.7 points per game. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or greater (Buffalo) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games and they have a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by an average of 23.4 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Titans @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +1.0 (5*) Since winning their opening game versus Jacksonville, Washington has gone a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS and lost by an average of 13.3 points per game. Nevertheless, they’re just a 1.5-point underdog versus an opponent that was the #1 seed in the AFC last season, and is coming off wins in their last 2 games. It’s seldom as easy as it looks when it comes to NFL betting. Tennessee is coming of 2 consecutive SU wins, and both came as underdogs. NFL teams haven’t fared well at all when in that exact situation over the past 5 decades. Specifically speaking, NFL teams coming off 2 consecutive SU underdog wins have gone a dismal 39-111-1 SU and 56-95 ATS (37.1%) since 1982 when facing non-division opponents. Give me the Commanders plus the small number. |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
Bears @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Over 44.0 (5*) There’s been 68% of the tickets and 95% of the money wagered on the under as of this writing. Yet, the total has gone from its opening number of 43.0 up to 44.0. This is textbook reverse line movement and a true indicator of sharp money go on the over which includes mine. Since 2020, Minnesota has played 15-5 (75%) to the over whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and that includes 8-2 (80%) to the over if those games were played at home. You also might be surprised to know that Chicago has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 division away games and there was a combined average of 59.8 points scored per game. Furthermore, the last 3 games between these teams played in Minnesota have all gone over the total with a combined average of 49.3 points scored per game. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC -12.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: USC -12.5 (10*) This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon. Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons. Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game. Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Utah @ UCLA 3:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: UCLA +3.5 Utah is coming off a 42-16 home win over Oregon State and covered easily as a 10.5-point favorite. UCLA is coming off a 40-32 home win over Washington and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That win improved the Bruins season record to 5-0. Any college football conference home underdog of 7.5 or less whose won 3 or more games in a row, and their previous game was against a conference opponent, versus a team (Utah) coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2018. The home underdogs went 14-3 SU as well. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Louisville v. Virginia +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Virginia 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Virginia +3.0 (5*) Louisville is coming off a 34-33 loss at Boston College in a game they closed as a 13.5-point favorite. That upset loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). That record includes 0-3 SU&ATS versus fellow ACC teams. Virginia enters this week 2-3 while going 0-3 on the road but they’re 2-0 at home. Any college football home team (Virginia) with a win percentage of .363 or better, versus an opponent coming off a conference upset loss as a favorite of -10.0 to -17.0, and that road team has a losing record, resulted in those home teams 23-2 SU (92%) since 2007. The SU betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the hone underdog Virginia Cavaliers. Give me Virginia plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
TCU @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Kansas +7.0 (5*) I was on TCU last week as a 6.0-point home underdog and they came through after blowing out Oklahoma 55-24. That win improved TCU to 4-0 on the season. However, my over 2 decades of experience reminds me that teams coming off an upset win at home versus a nationally ranked opponent are more times than not flat in their following game. I firmly believe that mental aspect will come into play when they travel to Lawrence, Kansas to take on an upstart Jayhawks team which has started the season 5-0. Any college football home underdog (Kansas) who’s undefeated and is playing after Game 5 of the season, and they won 24 or less of their previous 28 home games, versus an opponent coming off a SU win and they have a win percentage of .833 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1982. Those home underdogs also went 17-2 SU in those 19 contests. Give me Kansas plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | 40-13 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*) Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense. Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game. Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS. Give me LSU plus the points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*) Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins. It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced. Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians -109 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Rays (McClanahan) @ Guardians (Bieber) 12:07 PM ET Game# 945-946 Play On: Guardians -109 (10*) These teams finished the regular season headed down opposite paths. Tampa Bay heads into the postseason having gone a dismal 8-18 in their last 26 games. Conversely, Cleveland finished regular season action a red-hot 24-6 in their last 30. The Rays finished up regular season play on a 9-game road trip which saw them go 2-7. Tampa is an awful 7-18 (.280) this season following 6 or more games on the road. Meanwhile, Cleveland played their last 10 regular season games at home. The Guardians are 23-10 (.697) this season following 5 or more consecutive games played at home. At one point this season lefthander Shane McClanahan may have been the frontrunner for the American CY Young Award. However, the Rays hurler is 0-3 during his last 3 teams starts with a sizable 7.07 ERA/1.64 WHIP and that certainly doesn’t equate to good form. McClanahan will be facing a Cleveland team that has gone a terrific 17-4 this season as a home favorite of -110 or greater when facing a lefthanded starting pitcher. The Tampa Bay bullpen has recently struggled as evidence by their staff 6.05 ERA/1.55 WHIP over its previous 7 games. As a matter of fact, the Rays bullpen has converted on a terrible 16 of 34 (47.1%) save opportunities on the road in 2022. One more final note, the Rays were a shiny 51-30 (.629) at home this season but went just 35-46 (.432) in away games. Shane Bieber has gone a stellar 20-11 in his teams starts this season with an exceptional 2.93 ERA/1.04 WHIP. Furthermore, Bieber is 5-1 in his previous 6 teams starts with an outstanding 2.20 ERA/0.85 EHIP. The Guardians bullpen has an excellent 0.99 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Cleveland’s bullpen has converted 21 of 25 (84%) save opportunities at home this season. Give me the Guardians on the money line. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*) Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays. SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week. Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points. |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers -125 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rams @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: 49ers -125 (5*) San Francisco will be playing with big time revenge after sustaining a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last season’s NFC Championship Game. That loss snapped a 6-game win streak for San Francisco against the Rams. The Rams have exhibited no running game throughout its first 3 contests while averaging 72.3 yards and a paltry 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. They’ll be facing an extremely 49ers defense which allows 79 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per attempt. Give me the 49ers on the money line. |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs +110 | 41-31 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Buccaneers 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Buccaneers +110 (5*) Tampa Bay is coming off last week’s 14-12 home loss to Green Bay. The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 regular season home games following a loss and won by an enormous average of 22.2 points per game. The Tampa Bay defense has been outstanding throughout their first 3 contests while allowing a paltry 9.0 points and 289.0 yards per game. The last times these two teams met was in the 2021 Super Bowl when Tampa Bay routed Kansas City 31-9. The Bucs defense frustrated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs high-powered offense in that contest by forcing them to be patient and keeping the huge chunk plays to a minimum. I look for more of the same on Sunday night. Give me Tampa Bay for a money line wager. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*) I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat. Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game. NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers +1 | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*) Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game. Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers. |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*) Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Give me the Colts minus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Under 45.5 (5*) Since 2019, the Chargers have played 12-3 to the under during its first 4 games of the season, and that includes 6-1 to the under on the road. The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 38-10 home loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 6.5-point favorite. Houston is coming off a 23-20 loss at Chicago in their previous game. Listed below is a perfect NFL totals betting angle pertaining to this matchup. Any NFL team (Chargers) with a losing record that’s coming off a game in which they failed cover by 28.0 points or more, and they scored 13 points or fewer in that contest, versus an opponent that scored 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 15-0 to the under since 2013. The average total in those 15 contests was 42.4 and there was just a combined 32.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty v. Old Dominion +3.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*) Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game. Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma v. TCU +6.5 | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*) TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*) Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State +4 | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*) The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch. After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak. Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*) Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it. By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month. |
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09-28-22 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Phillies (Nola) @ Cubs (Wesneski) 7:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Cubs +1.5 (-110) (5*) These teams have recently been going in opposite directions. The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 while the Cubs have won 6 of its previous 7. The Cubs are coming off last night’s 2-1 win over Philadelphia. Despite Chicago’s poor 68-86 season record, they’ve managed to go an extremely profitable 17-7 this season immediately following a 1-run win. The Cubs are slated to start righthander Hayden Wesnecki. The 24-year-old has been exceptional since his September call up from AAA Iowa. His first 2 career MLB appearances came as a reliever. However, his last 2 were as a starter and he compiled a brilliant 2.03 ERA/0.75 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings pitched. The Cubs bullpen has been sharp during their 6-1 stretch while posting a staff 2.38 ERA/1.15 WHIP. Give me the Cubs on the run line. |
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09-27-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rockies (Marquez) @ Giants (Webb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Giants -1.5 (+120) (5*) Since 2021, German Marquez has made 4 starts at San Francisco and posted a terrible 7.78 ERA/1.68 WHIP during those outings. Marquez has also shown poor form over his last 3 starts with a 7.87 ERA/1.75 WHIP. The Colorado bullpen has a shaky 6.83 ERA/1.58 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games while the Rockies have gone 1-6 during that stretch. Since the beginning of last season, Colorado has gone 28-72 on the road when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Giants enter today having won 6 of its last 7. The Giants are currently a money line favorite of -185. Since the 2021 season began, San Francisco is 15-1 as a money line home favorite of -150 or more when Brandon Webb is their starting pitcher and won by an average of 3.6 runs per game. Webb has made 3 starts versus Colorado this year with a sparkling 2.50 EWRA and 0.80 WHIP. Webb has also displayed good form over his last 3 starts with a 3.31 ERA/0.98 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has compiled an excellent 1.54 ERA as a staff throughout their previous 7 games. Give me the Giants on the run line. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*) Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week. NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Jets +6.0 (5*) The Bengals find themselves in a rare situation as an away favorite and coming off a pair of 3-point losses. Any NFL away favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming of 2 consecutive losses by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those away favorites going 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980 and were defeated by an average of 10.3 points per game. The Jets are coming off a remarkable and unlikely comeback win last Sunday in Cleveland. They overcame a 30-17 deficit to win 31-30 after scoring 2 touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play. They closed as a 6.5-point underdog in that contest. Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0 to 8.5 that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, and they’re playing in Game 2 through Game 6 of their season, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.5%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went a more than respectable 11-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus the points. |
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09-25-22 | Lions +6 v. Vikings | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Lions @ Vikings 1:00 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Lions +6.0 (5*) The Lions are coming off an impressive 36-27 home win over Washington. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a 24-7 Monday night loss at Philadelphia. The Lions have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Vikings. They went just 1-2 SU in those contests but both losses each came by narrow 2-point margins. Any division away underdog that’s coming off a win in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 11 or more and they scored 14 or less, resulted in those division away underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1986. Those underdogs also went a stellar 10-4 SU as well. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts UNDER 51 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Under 51.0 (5*) The Colts have played 2-0 to the under in its first 2 games and is coming off a 24-0 loss at Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. Despite a poor 0-1-1 start to the season, the Colts defense has been solid despite being on the field an average of 34:19 per game. They’ve held their opponents to 315.0 yards per game, 4.8 yards per offensive play, and permitted them to convert on just 36.7% of its 3rd down attempts. Additionally, the Indianapolis defense has surrendered 77 and 96 yards rushing in their first 2 games while allowing a mere 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. Since 2020, the Colts have played 6-0 to the under after holding opponents to 99 yards or less rushing in their previous 2 contests and there was a combined average of 40.0 points scored per game. However, offensively they have an atrocious ratio of 1 point scored per 36.8 yards gained. Putting those numbers into perspective, Kansas City has averaged 1 point scored per 11.4 yards gained per play. Kansas City managed only 319 yards of total offense in the previous game versus the Chargers which is well below the standard they’ve set since Andy Reid has been their head coach. During the first 2 games the Chiefs defense has been outstanding on 3rd down while their opponents converted a mere 28.6% of those attempts into 1st downs. Any NFL home team (Colts) coming off a SU favorite loss by 14 points or more, and there’s a total of 52.0 or less, resulted in those games playing 36-4 (90%) to the under since 2016. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*) The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense. Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*) Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State -133 | 31-24 | Loss | -133 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Iowa State -133 (5*) Iowa State is coming off a 43-10 shellacking of Ohio U. and outgained them by an enormous by 230 yards. The Cyclones are allowing a mere 234.3 yards per game which has sparked them to a 3-0 start to the season. The Cyclones defense has yet to allow an opponent to rush for 100 or more yards. Since 2020, Iowa State has gone 6-0 SU&ATS at home after allowing 125 yards or less rushing in each of their previous 2 games. Additionally, Iowa State will be playing with revenge by way of last year’s 31-29 loss at Baylor in a game that the Cyclones closed as a 7.0-point road favorite. Any college football home team that allows 285 yards or fewer per contest and is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.4%) since 2018. Give me Iowa State on the money line. |
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09-24-22 | Duke +7.5 v. Kansas | 27-35 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*) Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022. Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 8:15 PM Game# 301-302 Play On: Cleveland -4.5 (5*) Both teams enter today with a 1-1 record, and each is coming off a loss. The Browns managed to squander a 30-17 lead with less than 2 minutes to play in a 31-30 loss to the New York Jets as a closing 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to New England. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road following a SU loss and lost by an average of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL Thursday division home favorite that’s coming off a home favorite loss in which they scored 7 points or more versus an opponent with at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS since 1980. Those home favorites were also a perfect 12-0 SU in those contests and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game. Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number. |
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09-20-22 | Mets -110 v. Brewers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Mets (Carrasco) @ Brewers (Ashby) 7:40 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Mets -110 (5*) The Brewers are a dismal 0-7 in their last 7 when Alan Ashby was their starting pitcher. Speaking of Ashby, he has a terrible 6.87 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Brewers bullpen has been shaky during their previous 7 games with a staff 5.08 ERA and has blown 3 save opportunities in 5 tries. Carlos Carrasco has displayed good form over his last 3 starts while recording a 1.84 ERA and just shy of a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Additionally, Carrasco is 7-2 in his last 9 team starts with a stellar 2.12 ERA. The Mets bullpen has a shiny 1.71 ERA/0.72 WHIP throughout their last 7 games. The Mets are currently on a 5-game win streak and hold a slim 1.0 game lead over 2nd place Atlanta in the NL East standings. With the Braves opening a 3-game series at lowly Washington (51-96), their urgency level is sure to be extremely high. Give me the Mets on the money line. |
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09-20-22 | Blue Jays -120 v. Phillies | 18-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Phillies (Gibson) @ Mets (Carrasco) 6:45 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Blue Jays -120 (5*) The Phillies enter today on a 4-game losing streak. Kyle Gibson has been in terrible form over his last 3 starts with a large 8.52 ERA/1.97 WHIP. He doesn’t figure to get much assistance from a Phillies bullpen which has a lofty 6.75 ERA throughout their last 7 games. Ross Stripling is 8-2 in his road team starts this season with a solid 3.12 ERA/0.94 WHIP. Stripling is 3-0 in his last 3 team starts overall with an impressive 2.95 ERA/0.66 WHIP. The Blue Jays are coming off a 5-4 home loss to Baltimore in their previous game. Toronto is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss and outscored those opponents by an average of 2.8 runs per game. Toronto is an excellent 72-45 this season when facing a righthanded starting pitcher. Give me the Blue Jays on the money line. |
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09-20-22 | Cubs +138 v. Marlins | 2-1 | Win | 138 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Cubs (Sampson) @ Marlins (Lopez) 6:40 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Cubs +138 (5*) The Marlins will be facing a Cubs team that despite a poor record has average only 0.59 fielding errors per game. Since Game 82 of the season, Miami has gone an atrocious 14-37 versus opponents that average 0.60 or fewer errors per game. Miami has won their last 2 games. However, the Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 immediately following 2 straight wins and were outscored by an average of 4.0 runs per game. Pablo Lopez has been in poor form over his last 3 starts with a 7.53 ERA/1.69 WHIP. Adrian Sampson has exhibited very good form over his last 3 starts with a 1.59 ERA/1.00 WHIP. Sampson will have strong Supports from a Cubs bullpen which has compiled a sparkling 2.77 ERA/1.15 WHIP over their last 7 games. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -135 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: Eagles -135 (5*) The Eagles are coming off a 38-35 win at Detroit in their season opener. Any Monday night non-division NFL home team that’s coming off an away win, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 11, resulted in those home teams going 34-6 SU (85%) since 2009. Give me the Eagles as a money line favorite. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*) Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game. Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ LA Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Under 46.5 (5*) Since the 2019-2020 NFL regular season begam. The Rams have played 20-5 (80%) to the under at home whenever there was a total of 53.5 or less. On the other side of the table, during that identical time frame, Atlanta has played 6-0 to the under during road games when there was a total of 44.0 to 47.5 and there was a combined average of 38.5 points scored per contest. The Rams are coming off a season opening 31-7 home loss to Buffalo. Atlanta squandered a 16-point 4th quarter lead and fell 27-26 in their season opener. This sets up an extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle displayed below. Any NFL team with a total of 37.0 to 48.5 that’s coming off a home loss, versus an opponent (LA Rams) coming off a home loss by 10 points or more in which they allowed 45 points or fewer, resulted in those contests playing 29-1 (96.7%) to the under since 2018. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
Washington @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*) Detroit of is coming off a season opening 38-35 home loss to Philadelphia. The Lions lost despite rushing for 181 yards and that’s difficult to do in the NFL. However, they also allowed Philadelphia to rush for 216 yards of their own. Detroit is now a dismal 6-22 SU in their last 28 at home. The Lions are also 1-7 SU at home since 2020 when the line is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by an average of 10.6 points per game. Washington has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular road games when the line was +3.5 to -3.5 under current head coach Ron Rivera and they won by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Commanders will look to carry the momentum over from last week’s come from behind 28-22 home win over Jacksonville. |
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09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants -128 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
Carolina @ NY Giants 1:00 ET Game# 273-274 Play On: NY Giants -128 (5*) Carolina is coming off a gut-wrenching 26-24 home loss to Cleveland. The Panthers lost that contest when Browns rookie kicker Cade York converted on a game winning 58-yard field goal with 0:13 left to play. That’s a difficult emotional setback to immediately overcome. It’s especially so when it took place at home and their next contest is away. The Giants showed a ton of character last week while overcoming a 13-0 halftime deficit last week and coming back to win 21-20 at Tennessee as a 5.5-point underdog. That was a Titans team which was the AFC #1 seed heading into last season’s playoffs. I look for the G-Men to ride that momentum into and through their home opener this Sunday. Any NFL home favorite of 3.0 or less (NY Giants) that’s coming off an upset win in game in which they were an away underdog of 10.0 or less, and they won that contest by 13-points or fewer, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off a non-conference home loss, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU and 14-0-3 ATS since 2006. Give me the NY Giants on the money line. |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -135 v. Steelers | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
New England @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: New England -135 Taking Pittsburgh in this game appears to have sucker play written all over it. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the home underdog Steelers and are preying on bettors who will overreact to what they witnessed in the opening week of action. Case in point, New England is coming off an awful performance in last week’s 20-7 loss at Miami. Conversely, Pittsburgh came away with a huge road win over division rival and the defending World Champion Cincinnati Bengals. However, it came at the expense of losing star defensive end T.J. Watt who suffered a shoulder injury and he'll be unable to play on Sunday. Give me New England on the money line. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +13 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*) Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day. Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State -130 v. LSU | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ LSU 6:00 PM ET Game# 167-168 Play On: Mississippi State -130 (10*) LSU opened as a 1.0-point favorite in this contest and were overvalued at that simply because of their brand name. Don’t be misled by their 65-17 home blowout win last week over an FCS team in Southern University. This is a team in transition under new head coach Brian Kelly and their roster and their 2 deep roster is filled with first year transfers. Mississippi State has looked terrific during their 2-0 starts with a 49-23 home win over Memphis in their season opener and then last week’s 39-17 blowout of Arizona on the road. The Bulldogs will be out to revenge a narrow 28-25 home loss to LSU a season ago. The Bulldogs have held their own in its last 4 trips to Baton Rouge going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The mad professor Mike Leach’s air raid attack has amassed a combined 770 yards passing in their first 2 games. Give me Mississippi State on the money line for a Top Play. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue v. Syracuse -118 | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Syracuse 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Syracuse -118 (5*) Purdue is a solid team that should be a bowl team come season’s end. However, this will be a tough spot for them on the road versus a Syracuse team which has played well on both sides of the ball during their 2-0 start to the season. The Orange are +5 in the turnover department after wins over Connecticut 48-14 and Louisville 31-7. As a matter of fact, they committed no turnovers in those contests. The Orange outgained those 2 opponents by an average of 189.0 yards per game. Purdue is 1-1 after losing at home to Penn State 35-31 in their season opener and trouncing Indiana State 56-0 at home last week. Any college football home pick or favorite that’s coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they allowed 14 points or less, versus an opponent that scored 31 points or more in each of its previous 2 games, resulted in those home favorites going 45-2 SU (95.7%) since 2015. Give me Syracuse on the money line. |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move. Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role. Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: LA Chargers +4.0 (5*) Since taking over as head coach in Kansas City, Any Reid has gone and outstanding 60-23 at home. However, 4 of those 23 home losses have come to the Chargers. He’s 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS versus the Chargers at home. The current total in this game is 54.5. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games when the total was 49.5 or greater. That includes 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU if they were facing a divisional opponent. Both teams are coming off impressive opening game win over opponents that were playoff teams a season ago. Under current head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers went 3-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog last season which included a 30-24 win at Kansas City as a 7.0-point underdog. Give me the Chargers plus the points. The Chiefs are coming off 44-21 win at Arizona in which they covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They’re now 24-8 in their last 32 games. Since 2003, any NFL away underdog (Chargers) of 6.0 or less, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off an away favorite ATS win it covered by 3.0 or more, and they’ve won 18 or more of their last 32 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-3 ATS (88%). The away underdog also won 19 of those 25 games straight up. Give me the Chargers plus the points. |
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09-14-22 | Brewers -120 v. Cardinals | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Brewers (Burnes) @ Cardinals (Wainwright) 7:45 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Brewers -120 (5*) Ordinarily I would look to play Adam Wainwright at home. However, this situation is a bit different. Wainwright has made 4 starts versus Milwaukee this season and posted an uninspiring 4.70 ERA/1.44 WHIP during those outings. The Cardinals bullpen has been awful throughout their previous 7 games while recording a staff 7.66 ERA/1.83 WHIP. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes has made 3 starts versus St. Louis in 2022 and allowed a mere 1 earned run during 21.0 innings pitched while striking out 27 and walking just 3. The Brewers bullpen has registered an excellent 0.92 WHIP. Milwaukee enters today having won 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Brewers on the money line. |