Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
Dodgers (Urias) @ Giants (Webb) 9:07 PM ET Game# 971-972 Play On: Giants -104 (10*) This has been a zig-zag series in which each team has alternated wins. I look for that trend to continue in Thursday’s Game 5 with all being considered.. The Giants Logan Webb has pitched brilliantly at home this season. Webb has gone 13-0 in his home team starts while compiling a terrific 1.83 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in doing so. Webb has made 4 starts versus the Dodgers in 2012 and collected an impressive 1.52 ERA which includes 7 2/3 of scoreless innings pitched in Game 1 of this NLDS. The Giants went over the total in Tuesday’s 7-2 loss. Why is that significant? Well, I am glad you asked. San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 following an under during its previous game and allowed just a combined 2 runs. As a matter of fact, the last 4 times this situation has arisen the Giants have held opposing teams scoreless. Additionally, Webb is 11-1 in his teams starts this season after allowing 1 earned run or less in his previous start, and the Giants outscored those opponents by an average of 3.8 runs per game. Webb has allowed an average of just 0.33 home runs per start this season. Conversely, the Dodgers are a dismal 9-17 in 2021 when facing starting pitchers who allow 0.50 or fewer home runs per start. Bet the Giants for a Top Play money line wager. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Over 52.0 (5*) Tampa Bay has gone over the total in 4 of 5 games this season and scored 45 points or more twice. The Bucs will be facing an Eagles defense which has allowed 41 and 42 points in 2 of their 5 contests. Tampa Bay is coming off last Sunday’s 45-17 blowout win over Miami. Since 10/6/19, Tampa Bay has played 8-0 to the over following a game in which they scored 40 points or more. The Bucs have played 3-0 to the over this season versus fellow NFC teams and there was a combined average of 63.7 points scored per game. Furthermore, since 9/22/19, Tampa Bay has played 13-1 to the over when there was a total of 46.5 to 54.5 and when facing an opponent with a losing record. It’s been virtually impossible to run the ball effectively versus Tampa Bay this season. However, the Bucs defense ranks dead last in the league when it comes to passing yards allowed per game. The Eagles offense is certainly capable of exposing that weakness and I fully expect them game plan in that direction. Any Thursday NFL away favorite of 6.5 or less with a total of 44.5-52.5, and they have a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .363 or better, resulted in those contests playing 12-0 to the over since 1998. Those 12 contests had a combined average of 60.8 points scored per game. Bet this game over the total. |
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10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Giants (Wood) @ Dodgers (Scherzer) 9:37 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Under 7.5 (5*) Alex Wood has been victimized by the long ball in his 3 starts versus the Dodgers this season. However, the weather forecast for Los Angeles this evening is extremely rare with predicted winds of 16-18 MPB blowing in from left centerfield. Otherwise, Wood compiled a respectable 1.35 WHIP over those 3 starts versus Los Angeles. The Giants lefthander has displayed good form throughout his previous 5 starts overall while posting a 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and registering 31 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings pitched. Furthermore, all 5 of those recent starts by Wood stayed under the total with opponents averaging a mere 1.6 runs scored per game. Max Scherzer has gone an incredible 14-0 in his last 14 team starts this year with a superb 2.21 ERA. Scherzer has been brilliant throughout his illustrious career at postseason time. Yesterday was a travel day in this series. The Dodgers have played 16-7 to the under this season following an off day and their high-powered offense averaged only 3.8 runs scored per game in those outings. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Colts @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Under 46.5 (5*) Baltimore is coming off a 23-7 road win over Denver in a game in which they closed as a 1.0-point underdog. That win improved the Ravens season record to 3-1 (.750). Indianapolis is coming off their first win of the season after last Sunday’s 27-17 victory at Miami. This sets up a profitable NFL totals betting which has been highly successful for the past 37 seasons. Any NFL home team (Ravens) with a total of 42.5 to 48.5 that’s playing after Game 4 of their season, and they’re coming off an away underdog SU win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .550 or worse that allowed 38 points or fewer during its previous contest, resulted in those games playing 35-5 (87.5%) to the under since 1985. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bills +3.0 (5*) The Kansas City offense is once again a highly explosive unit. However, their defense has been another story. Kansas City has allowed 29 points or more in each of their first 4 games and gave up 457 yards or more 3 times. They’ll be facing a Buffalo offense that over their previous 3 games is averaging 39.3 points scored and 415 yards gained per contest. The only one that’s going to stop the Buffalo offense in this game is Buffalo, and that’s if they derail themselves with penalties or turnovers. The Bills defense is #1 in total yards and points allowed per game during the first quarter of the NFL season. However, they have played some less than stellar quarterbacks to this point. Nevertheless, compared to the Chiefs stop unit, look for Buffalo’s defense to get enough stops at key times. Additionally, the Bills have forced 11 turnovers over their current 3-game win streak, and Kansas City has committed 7 turnovers throughout their previous 3 contests. Since 2019, Buffalo is 13-4 straight up and 12-4-1 ATS in regular season road games. That includes 6-0-1 ATS if they were an underdog of 6.0 or less. Conversely, you may be surprised to know that Kansas City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Finally, Buffalo will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 37-24 loss at Kansas City during last season’s AFC Championship Game. Bet on Buffalo plus the small number. |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
Giants @ Cowboys 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Giants +7.0 (5*) Much has been made about Dallas’ defense being much improved. However, the facts remain that they rank 30th in pass defense in allowing 315.3 yards per game and #27 in total defense at 396.3 yards per contest. Those defensive statistics would be much worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 10 turnovers during its first 4 games. You may be surprised to know that the Giants rank 7th in passing offense and have committed only 3 turnovers in their first 4 contests. The Giants will have plenty of momentum heading into this game after a thrilling 27-21 overtime win at New Orleans last Sunday as an 8.0-point underdog. Daniel Jones is coming off his finest day as a pro after going 28-42 (70%) for 402 yards passing. The Giants are just 1-3 but 2 of their losses came by narrow 3 and 1-pont margins. They’ve also covered both of their road games and each as an underdog. Covering on the road is nothing new for New York. Since 10/7/2018, the Giants have gone an incredible 16-1 ATS as a conference away underdog. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
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10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*) The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest. After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14. |
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10-10-21 | Saints v. Washington Football Team UNDER 43.5 | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Washington @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Under 43.5 (5*) This isn’t the same dynamic New Orleans offense that we’ve witnessed in years past. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, New Orleans is 28th in total offense, #31 in passing yards, and #19 in scoring. They have seen 3 of their first 4 contests go under the total, and its only over came in last week’s loss to the Giants and only because the contest went overtime. On a positive note, New Orleans is #11 in total defense, #5 in scoring defense, and #2 at stopping the run. The Washington defense has been a major disappoint in the first quarter of this season. Especially when considering they were #2 in total defense a season ago and their personnel stayed pretty much intact. If there ever was a spot for them to get well it would bee this week against an underachieving Saints offense. Part of the problem defensively is they’ve been on the field for the 3rd most amount of time with only the Jags and Seahawks being worse. The Washington offensive is in the bottom 3rd of most statistical categories. They’ve been able to sustain drives which is evident by a poor 30.2% third down conversion rate with only Chicago being worse. Bet this game to go under the total. Since 2019, Washington has played 8-0 to the under in Games 5 through 8. Those 8 contests averaged a combined 32.5 points scored per game. New Orleans is currently a 2.5-point favorite in this contest. The Saints have played 9-2 to the under in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0, and that includes 4-0 under when the total was 46.0 or less. Ironically enough, those 4 contests also averaged a combined 32.5 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
LSU @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: LSU +2.5 (5*) Kentucky is coming off a huge home upset win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0 recorded and catapulted them to a #16 ranking. Now they’ll be facing unranked LSU (3-2) and have #2 Georgia on deck and as only a short favorite on their home field. By the way, LSU will be looking to bounce back after a 24-19 home upset loss to Auburn last week. This looks like a prime spot for the underdog LSU Tigers to come up big. Bet LSU plus the points. |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | 52-46 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Western Kentucky -3.0 (5*) This is an extremely fishy line when you consider that Western Kentucky is 1-3 and is the favorite over a UTSA team who’s 5-0. One thing is for sure, the Western Kentucky offense is explosive. They have averaged 39.0 points scored and 52.5 yards gained per game. That includes piling up 560 yards of total offense in last week’s 48-31 loss at #11 Michigan State. Their other defeats came at Army 38-35 and versus Indiana 33-31. During its last 2 games, UTSA gave up 329 yards passing to Memphis and 316 to winless UNLV. That is problematic for the Roadrunners defense since it will be facing an opponent on Saturday that has passed for 365 yards or more in all 4 games they’ve played and includes 435 yards or more in 3 of those contests. Bet Western Kentucky minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | Braves +110 v. Brewers | 3-0 | Win | 110 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Braves (Fried) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 5:07 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Braves +110 (5*) Atlanta is coming off a 2-1 series opening loss to Milwaukee and Corbin Burnes on Friday. They’ll have another tough challenge today when facing Brewers righthanded starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff. However, the Braves will counter with their red-hot southpaw starting pitcher Max Fried. All Fried has done recently is string together 12 quality starts in a row and compile an excellent 1.56 ERA throughout that stretch. The Atlanta bullpen has performed brilliantly down the final stretch of the regular season and recorded 2.0 scoreless innings yesterday. Milwaukee has gone a terrific 76-48 this season when facing righthanded starting pitchers but an uninspiring 20-19 versus southpaws. Bet the Braves for a money line wager. |
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10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
SMU @ Navy 3:30 PM ET Game# 353-354 Play On: SMU -13.0 (5*) If there was any chance of #24 SMU (5-0) overlooking Navy that was put to rest after the Midship upset UCF last week as a 15.0-point home underdog. Additionally, that was Navy’s first victory of the season after beginning with 3 losses. SMU is explosive yet balanced offensively. The Mustangs average 40 runs and 38 passes per game while averaging 42.6 points scored and 532.6 yards gained per contest. SMU will be able to score at will in this contest and jump out to a comfortable lead. That will take Navy out of their offensive comfort zone of running the ball successfully and chewing up clock to shorten games against teams with more talent. Bet on SMU minus the points. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Rutgers 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Rutgers +4.5 (5*) Rutgers has the unenviable task of going through a tough stretch of games after facing #7 Ohio State (4-1) last week and #9 Michigan (5-0) prior to that. They more than held their own in Ann Arbor in a 20-13 loss. However, last week was a different story as they were blown out at home by Ohio State 52-13. Yet, they find themselves as just a 5.5-point home underdog on Saturday versus #11 and undefeated Michigan State (5-0). We’ve already witnessed the public’s overreaction as they’ve wagered heavily on Michigan State. Yet we’ve seen little line movement from the opening number. Bet on Rutgers plus the points. |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Buehler) @ Giants (Webb) 9:37 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Giants +109 (5*) The Dodgers Walker Buehler’s last start versus San Francisco came on 9/5 when he allowed 6 earned runs in just 3.0 innings pitched. The Dodgers have won 107 games this season. However, they’re a dismal 5-12 in 2021 when their money line parameter was +125 to -125. San Francisco has gone a perfect 12-0 this season when Logan Webb was their starting pitcher. During those 12 starts Webb compiled an excellent 1.99 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while averaging 6.0 innings pitched per appearance. Webb has also gone 3-0 in his team starts versus the Dodgers this season with a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has been sharp throughout their previous 7 games while posting a staff 1.95 ERA. The Giants are 54-27 (.667) at home and 79-35 (.693) when facing righthanded starting pitchers this season. Bet the Giants for a money line wager. |
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10-08-21 | White Sox +113 v. Astros | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
White Sox (Giolito) @ Astros (Valdez) 2:07 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: White Sox +113 (5*) Houston has gone a terrific 70-41 in night games this season but just 26-26 during the day. Framber Valdez compiled a lofty 7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and allowed 4 home runs in just 10.0 innings pitched during his last 2 starts at home. Throughout his still young career, Lucas Giolito has pitched far more effective on the road than at home. The current posted total on Friday’s Game 2 of this ALDS is 8.5. Giolito has gone 15-4 in his road team starts since the start of last season whenever there was a total of 8.0 or 8.5. Giolito also has been an extremely profitable 19-13 in his career team starts as a money line road underdog of +100 or greater and bettors who risked $100 made a profit of $1540 in those 32 outings. Giolito has seen his last 2 starts versus Houston result in complete game wins. During Giolito’s last 3 regular season starts he recorded an excellent 1.10 ERA. Bet on the White Sox for a money line wager. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Rams @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Seahawks +2.5 (5*) The Rams received a dose of humility during last week’s 37-20 home loss to Arizona. The vaunted Los Angeles defense allowed Arizona to accumulate a substantial 465 yards during that defeat. It was the 2nd straight week their defense was less than inspiring. The week before they allowed Tampa Bay to amass 446 yards of total offense. This will be the 3rd consecutive week they’ll be facing an elite quarterback. Furthermore, the Rams defense hasn’t forced a turnover in each of their previous 2 games., and they will be facing a Seahawks team which hasn’t turned the ball over in 3 consecutive games. Seattle is coming off a 28-21 division win at San Francisco. On a negative note, they allowed the 49ers to rack up 457 yards of total offense in that contest. However, since 2019, Seattle is 8-1 SU following a game in which their defense allowed 450 yards or more, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS at home. Any NFL team (Seahawks) that’s coming off a division win by 17 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) that’s coming off a home loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 42-6 (87.5%) straight up since 2012. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Bet on the Seahawks plus the small number. |
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10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
White Sox (Lynn) @ Astros (McCullers) 4:07 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Astros -130 (10*) Since the start of last season, Lance Lynn has gone 0-3 versus Houston with a massive 11.49 ERA and 2.11 WHIP. The White Sox are 0-4 at Houston this season. Chicago is also a dismal 11-29 this season as a money line road underdog of +100 or greater. Lance McCullers Jr. has been in superb form over his last 6 starts while compiling a 2.57 ERA. During that stretch he’s allowed only 2 home runs in 35.0 innings pitched. McCullers is 2-0 versus the White Sox this season with a dominating 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The Astros finished regular season action with 6 consecutive home games. Houston is an extremely profitable 24-6 this season immediately following 5 straight at home. Bet the Astros for a Top Play wager. |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -120 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cole) @ Red Sox (Eovaldi) 8:08 PM ET Game# 937-938 Play On: Yankees -120 (5*) The first question is would you rather have pitching in a big game Gerrit Cole or Nathan Eovaldi. My personal choice in unequivocally Gerrit Cole. The Yankees have been the better team the last 3 months compared to Boston. The Red Sox won the first 6 games of this head-to-head series this season. However, the Yankees won the last 6 and that includes a 3-game sweep at Fenway Park in late September. As a matter of fact, Eovaldi started the first game of that series and allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings pitched. It’s worth noting, the Yankees were just 23-34 (.403) in day games this season, but an extremely profitable 69-36 (.657) at night. Lastly, the Yankees have gone an excellent 10-2 on the road this season following an off day. Bet on the Yankees for a money line wager. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Raiders +3.0 (5*) Technically this will be a Chargers home game. However, Los Angeles hasn’t yet embraced the Chargers like they have the Rams. Since being moved from San Diego, the Chargers have lost both of their home games versus the Raiders. During those 2 contests and based on fan support, the Raiders faithful have outnumbered Chargers fans despite being the visiting team. I look for that to continue this evening as well, and especially with Las Vegas off to a perfect 3-0 start for a first time since 2002. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is off to a terrific start to the season while averaging a robust 401 yards passing per contest. Carr’s performance line has been key to the Raiders being #1 thus far in total offense at 471.0 yards per game. I also look for the Raiders to run the ball more than they usually do when considering the Chargers are dead last in run defense, and they’re allowing opponents to average an alarmingly high 170.0 yards rushing per game. The Chargers are coming off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City in a game they were a 7.0-point underdog. That result and the Raiders hot starts doesn’t bode well for the Chargers chances of covering according to my NFL 4D handicapping software database. During NFL regular season action, any team (Raiders) coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (Chargers) who is coming off a division win by 2 points or more and as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those teams like Las Vegas going 15-0 straight up since 2012. The straight up results take on added significance since this betting angle supports the underdog. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos +1 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*) Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season. Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6 v. Packers | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Steelers +6.0 (5*) I’m not sold on Green Bay being an elite team. The Packers are 2-1 thus far but they’re allowing 27.7 points per contest. It’s not as if their offense is lighting up either. The Packers are averaging a modest 22.7 points scored and 301.7 yards gained per game which is well below their high standards. After beginning the season with an upset win at Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped their next 2 games at home to Las Vegas and Cincinnati. The Steelers offense has received some harsh criticism and rightfully so. After all, they have scored just combined 43 points throughout their first 3 games. Nonetheless, since the start of the 2017 season, Pittsburgh has gone 11-3 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 5-0 ATS when they’re +6.0 or greater. Bet the Steelers plus the points. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 51.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Over 51.5 (5*) These division rivals have played 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 meetings. Seattle’s defensive struggles have been a key contributor to their disappointing 1-2 start. The Seahawks are allowing 25.0 points and 440.3 yards per contest. Like how they started last season, the Seahawks defense has been especially vulnerable in the air as opponents have averaged a sizable7.4 yards per passing attempt and completed 70.7% of its throws. On a positive note, the Seattle offense is averaging 25.0 points scored and 389.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, San Francisco has averaged 28.7 points scored per game. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings +2 | 14-7 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Browns @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Vikings +2.0 (5*) The Browns are a quality team, but we must keep in mind that this is a Cleveland franchise which has gone a dismal 10-41 in their last 51 non-division away games, and includes 4-20 in their last 24 versus teams with a losing record. The Browns are 2-1 but their wins have come over Chicago and Houston. Minnesota continued their mastery over opponents in non-division home games under Mike Zimmer with last week’s 30-17 win versus Seattle. The Vikings have now gone 28-9 in their last 37 non-division home games and that includes 27-10 ATS (73%). It was the first win of the season for Minnesota after losing their first 2 games by a combined 4 points against opponents that currently have a combined 6-1 record. The Vikings offense has been impressive throughout their first 3 contests while averaging 29.0 points and 425.0 yards gained per game. Bet the Vikings plus the small number. |
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10-02-21 | Indiana +12.5 v. Penn State | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Indiana +12.5 (5*) Indiana is off to a disappointing 2-2 start when considering they were ranked #16 in the preseason polls. They will be facing a tough task on Saturday on the road at #4 Penn State. However, the Hoosiers are 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Nittany Lions including last season’s thrilling 36-35 win at home. Their 2 SU losses to the Nittany Lions came by narrow margins of 5 and 7 points in games they were a double-digit underdog on each occasion. Penn State has a couple of quality wins thus far over Wisconsin 16-10 and Auburn 28-20. Here’s the kicker, up next for Penn State is a road game at #5 Iowa (5-0). This has all the earmarks of a flat spot for Penn State and a much closer game than most will anticipate. Bet Indiana plus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Baylor +4.0 (5*) Oklahoma State enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record and ranked 19th in the country. However, their 4 wins have come by a combined 24 points or an average victory margin of 6.0 points per contest. #21 Baylor is also 4-0 and coming off an upset win over Iowa State as a 7.0-point home underdog. Baylor is allowing just 15.8 points and 290.3 yards per game. This 2021 version Oklahoma State football isn’t as talented or dynamic offensively as they’ve been in recent years. This game will go right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever to see Baylor pull off an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and will graciously accept the points being afforded to me. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-02-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -124 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Wisconsin -124 (Money Line) (10*) So let me get this straight, we have the #14 ranked team (Michigan) with a perfect 4-0 record as an underdog versus an unranked 1-2 opponent (Wisconsin). This game has trap and sucker play written all over it. This is a prime example of why thinking like a bookmaker is advantageous. Since the start of the 2013 season, Wisconsin has enjoyed on of the best home field advantages in college football over that time. During that span of time, Wisconsin has gone 46-8 (85.2%) straight up at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. That superb straight up home record takes on added significance to me since the oddsmakers have deemed this to be an evenly matched contest based on the opening and current point-spread. Keep in mind, Wisconsin is 1-2 but their losses came against #4 Penn State and #9 Notre Dame. Michigan will be in their 1st road game of the season after opening with 4 straight home wins. The Wolverines have been an extremely run heavy team this season with 74.2% of their offense plays from scrimmage being rushing attempts. They certainly have attained a great deal of success with that formula while averaging 291.0 rushing yards per game and an impressive 6.3 yards per attempt. However, they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that’s been dominant against the run so far. The Badgers are holding opponents to a mere 23 rushing yards per game and 1.0 yard per attempt. The Badgers ability to neutralize Michigan’s potent running game will be the key to victory. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-02-21 | Duke v. North Carolina -19.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Duke @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: North Carolina -19.5 (5*) For starters we have a North Carolina team that’s 2-2 as a 20.0-point favorite over a 3-1 opponent (Duke). That speaks volumes to me and especially so in a huge rivalry game. North Carolina was shocked last week as a 14.5-point road favorite during a 45-22 road loss to Georgia Tech. The last time the Tar Heels were upset was in their season opener at Virginia Tech. They followed that up with 2 home blowout wins over Georgia State 59-0 and Virginia 59-39. In which they combined for 1306 yards of total offense. I look for another huge offensive performance for North Carolina on Saturday against a Duke defense that allowed 33 points and 507 yards to an immensely weak Kansas team. Duke enters this game on a 3-game win streak after being upset in their season opener at Charlotte. Nonetheless, those wins came over the likes of North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas. Northwestern and Kansas are a combined 0-5 versus FBS opponents this season, and North Carolina A&T (1-2) who plays at the FCS level. Not exactly the who’s who of college football. Bet North Carolina minus the points. |
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10-02-21 | Texas v. TCU +4.5 | 32-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Texas @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU +4.5 (5*) I put this one in the line doesn’t make sense category. When that occurs my mind automatically shifts to a contrarian mindset and a bookmaker’s mentality. We have a Texas team that’s 3-1 and their only loss came at #8 Arkansas. The Longhorns were dominant in each of the last 2 weeks with wins over Texas Tech 70-35 and 58-0 versus Rice. Conversely TCU is coming off an upset loss to SMU in a game they were a 9.0-point home favorite. The week before that the Horned Frogs barely escaped with a 2-point win over California while failing to cover as a 12.0-point home favorite. Furthermore, Texas will be playing with revenge stemming from losses to TCU in each of the past 2 season. The sports books just aren’t that generous. Any conference home team (TCU) with a winning record, and they’re facing an opponent (Texas) with a win percentage of .600 to .800 who coming off a conference win by 10 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 59-16 (78.7%) straight up since 2018. This college football straight up betting algorithm supports the underdog in this matchup and makes this wagering angle far more significant. Bet on TCU plus the points. |
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10-01-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Brewers (Lauer) @ Dodgers (Kershaw) 10:10 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Under 8.0 (10*) Eric Lauer has exhibited terrific form over his last 5 starts while compiling a 1.19 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Lauer has pitched 7-0-1 to the under in his career starts versus the Dodgers with a brilliant 1.89 ERA. Milwaukee will be facing veteran lefthander Clayton Kershaw tonight. The Brewers are averaging just 3.3 runs scored per game while going 20-17 versus lefthanded starting pitchers in 2021. Clayton Kershaw has been solid since returning from the disabled list while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 3 starts. The Dodgers bullpen has recorded an outstanding 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Maryland 8:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Maryland +3.5 (5*) So let me get this right, we have the #5 ranked team (Iowa) in the country as just a 3.5-point favorite over an unranked opponent. Which means if the game was being played in Iowa City the #5 Hawkeyes would be only be about a 9.5-point favorite. I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers compared to the pollsters. Based on that previous statement, the sportsbooks are begging you to take the highly ranked team as a short favorite over their unheralded opponent. By the way, despite being unranked, Maryland is 4-0 and averaging more than 500 yards of total offense per game. The Terrapins will be facing a tough task against an Iowa defense which is allowing only 11.0 points and 271.5 yards per game. However, the Iowa offense leaves much to be desired while averaging a mere 293.0 yards per game. Bet Maryland plus the points. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Under 46.0 (5*) Jacksonville has averaged only 17.0 points scored and 315.0 yards gained during their 0-3 start. The Jaguars have turned the ball over an alarmingly high 9 times in those 3 contests. The Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled thus far while completing just 54.2% of his passes and throwing 7 interceptions. Lawrence will be facing a Cincinnati defense that’s been stout in their last 2 contests while allowing 15.0 points and 274.0 yards per game. During those last 2 contests, the Bengals offense hasn’t exactly lit it up while averaging 20.5 points scored and 274.0 yards gamed per game. The Bengals are coming off last Sunday’s surprising 24-10 win at Pittsburgh which improved their season record to 2-1. Any NFL team (Bengals) playing after Game 3 of their season with a total of 47.0 or less that’s coming off a division away win, and they have a winning record, versus an opponent (Jaguars) with a losing record, resulted in those games going 20-0 under the total since 2015. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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09-30-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Tigers (Skubal) @ Twins (Ryan) 7:40 PM ET Game# 919-920 Play On: Under 8.5 (10*) Joe Ryan has been terrific in 4 starts for Minnesota this season with a 2.45 ERA and 0.59 WHIP while averaging 5.5 innings per outing. The Twins bullpen has a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Minnesota has witnessed its last 6 games all going under the total. Detroit is hitting .285 as a team over their previous 7 games. However, during that span, they hit just 1 home run and averaged a paltry 3.3 runs per game. Detroit has played 9-1 to the under in their last 10. Taylor Skubal has made 3 career starts at Target Field in Minnesota and compiled a stellar 3.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. None of those 3 starts went over the total. The current Twins roster is a poor 13-69 (.206 BA) lifetime when facing Skubal. Bet this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-29-21 | Reds v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Reds (Gray) @ White Sox (Rodon) 8:10 PM ET Game# 979-980 Play On: Under 7.5 (10*) Sonny Gray has a stellar 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts this season and only 3 of those outings went over the total. Gray made 1 start versus the White Sox this year and tossed 7.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Cincinnati has played 12-2-1 to the under in their previous 15 away games. The Reds will be facing a tough lefthander tonight in Carolos Rodon. The White Sox southpaw hurler has pitched 15-7-1 to the under this season with an exceptional 2.47 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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09-29-21 | Indians -109 v. Royals | 5-10 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Indians (Plesac) @ Royals (Lynch) 8:10 PM ET Game# 975-976 Play On: Indians -109 (5*) Cleveland is coming off last night’s 6-4 loss to Kansas City. The Indians have gone 4-0 in their last 4 and 7-1 during its previous 8 following a loss. Conversely, the Royals are 0-3 in their last 3 and 1-5 during its previous 6 following a win. The Royals Daniel Lynch has a sizable 6.67 ERA and 1.58 WHIP during 7 home starts in 2021. Lynch has also posted an uninspiring 5.90 ERA this year in 2 starts against Cleveland. Dan Plesac has gone 8-0 in his career team starts versus Kansas City with a brilliant 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Cleveland bullpen has a superb 1.59 ERA throughout its previous 7 games. Despite yesterday’s loss, Cleveland has still gone an extremely profitable 13-4 against Kansas City this season and that includes 7-1 on the road. Bet the Indians for a money line wager. |
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09-29-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Tigers (Mize) @ Twins (Pineda) 7:40 PM ET Game# 969-970 Play On: Under 9.0 (5*) Detroit has gone under in 8 of its last 9 and 11 of their previous 13 games. Casey Mize has pitched 10-4-1 to the under in his road starts this season with an impressive 3.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Mize has also pitched 18-5 to the under this season as a money line underdog of +100 or greater just like he’ll be today. The Tigers bullpen has a stellar 2.03 ERA throughout their previous 7 games. Michael Pineda has displayed sharp form over his last 3 starts while collecting a 2.30 ERA. The Twins bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 3.03 ERA. Minnesota has gone under in each of their last 5 with a combined average of only 6.4 runs scored per game. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cole) @ Blue Jays (Berrios) 7:07 PM ET Game# 967-968 Play On: Under 8.0 (5*) Gerrit Cole has pitched 4-0 to the under this season versus Toronto with a sparkling 2.74 ERA. Cole has been outstanding in his previous 4 road starts while posting a 1.88 ERA and struck out 37 batters in 24.0 innings pitched. The current Blue Jays roster has gone just 33-156 (.212 BA) in their careers when facing Cole. The Yankees bullpen has been dominant throughout their last 7 games with a 0.87 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. The Yankees have played 44-26 (62.9%) to the under when facing fellow AL East teams. Jose Berrios has recorded quality start in each of his last 6 opportunities. During that stretch he compiled an excellent 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Toronto has played 6-0-1 to the under in their previous 7 and averaged a paltry 3.0 runs scored per game. The Blue Jays are currently -105 on the money line. The Blue Jays have played 40-24 (62.5%) to the under this season when their money line was +125 to -125. Toronto has also gone 11-5-1 to the under this season when facing the Yankees. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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09-28-21 | A's v. Mariners +101 | 2-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
A's (Bassitt) @ Mariners (Anderson) 10:10 PM ET Game# 927-928 Play On: Mariners +101 (5*) For starters, Seattle has won their last 10 played against Oakland this season. Seattle has also won 8 of their last 9 overall and that includes a 4-game sweep at Oakland. The Mariners Tyler Anderson has made 12 home starts this season with an impressive 3.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Seattle has gone a profitable 10-5 this season versus teams with a winning record when Anderson is their starting pitcher. Anderson has made 1 start in 2021 and another in 2020 versus Oakland with a dominating 0.71 ERA during 12 2/3 innings pitched. The Seattle bullpen has been lights out over their previous 7 games with a combined 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Seattle has a seemingly tough chore tonight when facing Oakland ace Chris Bassitt who has a sensational 1.04 WHIP during 26 starts this season. However, the Mariners have gone an outstanding 16-5 this season when facing American League starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower. The Oakland bullpen has a lofty 5.79 ERA and allowed 7 home runs in 28.0 innings throughout their previous 7 games. It’s also worth noting, the slated home plate umpire is Adam Liamari. Home teams have gone 21-7 (.750) this season and 46-25 (.648) since 2019 when Liamari is the home plate umpire. Bet the Mariners for a money line wager. |
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09-28-21 | Indians v. Royals -115 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Indians (Civale) @ Royals (Singer) 8:10 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Royals -115 (5*) These teams met in Cleveland on Monday and the Indians walked away with an 8-3 win. Nonetheless, Cleveland is 0-4 in their last 4 and 1-9 during its previous 10 in games following a win. Conversely, Kansas City has gone 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. Furthermore, Cleveland is a terrible 6-18 this season immediately following a game in which they scored 8 runs or more. The Indians Aaron Civale has shown terrible form over his last 3 starts with an 11.81 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. The Royals Brady Singer has been in good form throughout his previous 5 starts while registering a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Singer has made 4 career starts against Cleveland with all coming since last season. During those 4 outings Singer posted a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Bet the Royals for a money line wager. |
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09-28-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler) @ Braves (Morton) 7:20 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Under 7.5 (5*) The Phillies Zach Wheeler is 4-0 in his last 4 team starts while compiling an excellent 1.14 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Wheeler has made 4 superb starts against Atlanta this season with a 1.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has a more than respectable 2.96 ERA over their previous 7 games. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has exhibited good form over his last 5 starts while recording a 3.19 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Morton has made 4 solid starts against Philadelphia this season with a 3.06 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Atlanta bullpen has a 3.03 ERA over their previous 7 games. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 497-498 Play On: Eagles +3.5 (5*) The Eagles are 1-1 but have looked better than I anticipated. They’ve exhibited a perfect balanced offensive attack that has averaged exactly 30 runs and 30 passes per contest while amassing 383.0 yards per game while doing so. There’s no denying when Dak Prescott is healthy the Dallas becomes an offensive juggernaut in most instances. However, they will be facing an Eagles defense that through 2 games is only allowing 11.0 points and 283.0 yards per contest. Similar to recent seasons, the Dallas defense continues to be their enigma as they surrendered over 400 yards during each of their first 2 games of the season. Dallas will finally play their home opener after beginning the season with a pair of road games. The Cowboys lost at Tampa Bay 31-29, and then they bounced back last week with a 20-17 win over the Chargers. Conversely, Philadelphia is coming off a 17-11 home loss to San Francisco which evened their record at 1-1. Since 206, NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 that’s playing in Game 2 through 6, and their last 2 contests were decided by 3 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Eagles) coming off a SU loss by 2 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-7 SU&ATS. The home favorites were outscored in those 7 losses by an average of 6.0 points per game. Bet the Eagles plus the points. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 30-28 | Loss | -111 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 495-496 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (5*) I am sure the Packers will be a public play since they were able to view them walloping Detroit 35-17 on the Monday night televised game. However, we must keep in mind, that’s a pitiful Detroit team which has allowed an average of 38 points per game thus far. With that said, despite the Packers putting up 35 points last week they only were able to amass 323 yards of total offense. We mustn’t forget, this is also a Packers team that lost their season opener 38-3 to New Orleans and only was able to muster 322 yards of total offense. San Francisco is coming of road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia in their first 2 games. The 49ers will also be out to revenge a 34-17 home loss to Green Bay last season in a game they entered ravaged by injuries. I look for the 49ers be mentally and physically sharp in their home opener against what I deem to be an overrated team. Bet the 49ers minus the points. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 493-494 Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*) Talk about a tough luck team, Minnesota has opened the season with a pair of road losses that came by a combined 4 points. Even worse the fact they lost both games via opponent’s winning field goals in the last play of each of those contests. Now they’ll be facing a Seattle team that blew a 14-point 2nd half lead in their home opener last week in a 33-30 loss to Tennessee. Okay so here’s the caveat if you were contemplating Seattle. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have gone 27-9 (.750) straight up in their last 36 non-division home games and that includes 26-11 (70.3%) ATS. Furthermore, under Zimmer, Minnesota has gone 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS following 2 straight losses when facing a non-division opponent and their previous contest was versus a non-division opponent. Bet Minnesota plus the small number. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*) Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-26-21 | Saints +3 v. Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Saints @ Patriots 1:00 ET Game# 477-478 Play On: New Orleans +3.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming off a 25-6 road win over an atrocious Jets team. They were beneficiaries of 4 interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Zack Wilson which came on his first 10 attempts of the day. The New Orleans defense has been great against the run thus far while allowing only 66 rushing yards per contest and a mere 2.6 yards per attempt. The Patriots rookie quarterback Matt Jones is going to have to make some big plays in the passing game because the New Orleans defense is likely to stymie any attempt at running the ball effectively on a consistent basis. I love our chances if that scenario plays out like I believe it will. New Orleans is coming off an embarrassing 26-7 loss at Carolina last week. However, that was a very unsettling situation for the Saints who were without 8 assistant coaches due to COVID protocols. I look for them to resemble the team we saw in their opening week 38-3 thrashing of the Green Bay Packers. Besides, it’s never a bad idea to bet on the New Orleans Saints following a loss since Sean Payton became their head coach. Since 2008, and all with their current head coach, New Orleans is 47-25 SU&ATS (65.2%) following a loss. Furthermore, if those contests were played before Game 11 of the season, and the Saints allowed 25 points or more in those previous losses, they improved to 15-2 ATS (88.2%) and 13-4 during that identical timeframe. Bet the Saints plus the small number. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State -14 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Arizona State -14.0 (5*) #19 Arizona is coming off a 27-17 upset loss at #15 BYU (3-0). So, the Sun Devils figure to be in a sour mood against a Colorado team which has looked inept offensively to start the season. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with their only win coming versus Northern Colorado. In their only 2 games against FBS opponents they lost 10-7 to Texas A&M and 30-0 at home versus Minnesota. Additionally, they only had 260 yards of total offense versus Texas A&M and an abysmal 63 yards against Minnesota. By the way, through their first 3 games, the Sun Devils defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 246.7 yards per game. The Sun Devils offense has topped the 400 yards of total offense barrier in all 3 games. Bet on Arizona State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oklahoma -17.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, West Virginia has gone a perfect 7-0 at home and that includes last week’s win over then #15 Virginia Tech. However, during that identical time span, they went 0-5 on the road and that includes a season opening 30-24 loss at Maryland. The critics have been harsh on #4 Oklahoma despite their 3-0 record. The basis behind those negative remarks revolves around the Sooners only 2 games played against FBS opponents. They narrowly escaped in their season opener at home with 40-35 win over Tulane in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Then last week they entertained Nebraska (1-2) and barely got by with a 23-16 win as a 22.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, since 2014, Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS versus West Virginia with an average victory margin of 21.5 points per game. Oklahoma is also +2 in the turnover department while West Virginia is a dismal -6 throughout their first 2 games. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +2 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Florida State 3:30 Game# 267-268 Play On: Florida State +2.0 (5*) Florida State is 0-3 for the first time since 1976, and that includes a home loss 2 weeks ago to Jacksonville State who plays at the FCS level. The Seminoles were plagued by an alarmingly high 10 turnovers during those 3 defeats and 6 of those came in last week’s 35-14 loss at Wake Forest. Yet, they find themselves as just a 2.0-point underdog versus a Louisville team that just upset Central Florida in a nationally televised home game. After losing both home games to start the season and each by a narrow 3-point margin, I look for Florida State to roar back with a vengeance against a Louisville team that may potentially be overconfident and not mentally sharp. Bet on Florida State plus the small number. |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State -7 v. Baylor | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Baylor 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) Baylor is off to a fast 3-0 start but finds itself a touchdown home underdog against 2-1 Iowa State. We must keep in mind Iowa State’s lone defeat came against #6 Iowa in a game they beat themselves. The Cyclones outgained Iowa in that contest 339-173 but turned the ball over 4 times while not forcing any giveaways. Iowa State rebounded during last week’s 48-3 road win at UNLV. Through its first 3 contests, the Iowa State defense is allowing 13.3 points and 192.7 yards per game, and all those outings went under the total. Baylor’s 3 wins have come against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Not exactly a killer schedule. Any college football road favorite of 3.5-10.0 that is coming off 3 consecutive games going under the total, and they’re allowing 14.0 points or fewer per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 1992. The average line in those 39 contests was 6.2 and the average victory margin was 16.6 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | 37-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Virginia 9:36 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Virginia -4.0 (5*) Wake Forest has started 3-0 but their wins have come over Norfolk State (FCS team), Florida State (0-3), and Old Dominion (1-2). Additionally, all 3 of those wins occurred at home. So, they haven’t exactly played a killer schedule thus far, and Virginia will unequivocally be their toughest test to this point. The Demon Deacons have also been beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential thus far. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 loss at North Carolina. The Virginia defense was embarrassed in that contest while allowing North Carolina to rack up 699 yards of total offense. Wake Forest has neither the dynamic passing game that North Carolina possesses, nor do they have a quarterback the caliber of Sam Howell. I also look for Virginia’s defense to bounce back with a more determined effort on Friday. On a positive note, the Virginia passing game has been terrific through their first 3 games while averaging a robust 438 yards per contest. The Cavaliers are also averaging 41.3 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2018 season, Virginia has gone 20-2 straight up at home, and that includes a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Virginia minus the points. |
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09-23-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Astros (McCullers) @ Angels (Cobb) 9:36 PM ET Game# 973-974 Play On: Under 8.5 (10*) Lance McCullers has displayed good form over his last 4 starts while compiling a 1.96 ERA in 23.0 innings pitched. McCullers has pitched 4-0 to the under versus the Angels this season with a superb 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The Astros bullpen has been solid throughout its last 7 games while registering a staff 3.13 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Angels Alex Cobb has been brilliant over his last 5 starts while posting a miniscule 0.94 ERA. This total jumped off the screen at me as being low and especially when considering these teams have played 30-14 to the over since 1999. However, those of you that know me well over the years know I more times than not go against public perception in these betting situations. The public has hammered the over thus far. Good for them, but I’m going under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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09-23-21 | Mariners +142 v. A's | 6-5 | Win | 142 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Mariners (Kikuchi) @ A’s (Bassitt) 3:37 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Mariners +142 (5*) By virtue of yesterday’s win over Oakland, Seattle has now won the last 5 versus the A’s. The Mariners are also 7-1 at Oakland this season and includes winning 5 straight. The Seattle starter Kikuchi has made 4 starts versus Oakland since the start of last season and recorded a terrific 1.50 ERA while pitching 6.0 innings in each of those outings. Oakland’s Chris Bassitt has a poor 8.00 ERA in 2 starts versus Seattle this season and lasted just a combined 9.0 innings in those appearances. The A’s are averaging only a paltry 3.3 runs scored per game throughout their last 7 while hitting a horrible .203 as a team. Bet on the Mariners for a money line underdog wager. |
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09-23-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Scherzer) @ Rockies (Freeland) 3:10 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Under 10.5 (5*) Kyle Freeland has seen all 3 starts against the Dodgers this season stay under the total. His exceptional 2.84 ERA and 0.79 WHIP during those starts was a major contributor to those low scoring affairs. Colorado defeated the Dodgers yesterday 10-5. That game easily went over the total despite 6 of the 9 innings being scoreless. Nonetheless, Colorado has played 6-1 to the under in their last 7 following an over in their previous game. Max Scherzer has been sensational over his previous 5 starts while pitching 36 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball. He also struck out 48 and walked only 3 during that red-hot stretch. As I alluded to yesterday’s game at Colorado between these teams went over the total. The Dodgers have played 10-1-1 to the under in their last 12 following an over in their previous game. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Wainwright) @ Brewers (Houser) 2:10 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Under 8.0 (5*) Adam Wainwright has gone 11-1 in his last 12 team starts while posting an excellent 1.81 ERA. Wainwright has started 3 times versus Milwaukee this season and compiled a sparkling 2.08 ERA. The Cardinals are coming off their 11th straight win yesterday as they pounded Milwaukee 10-2. St. Louis has played 15-4 to the under since the start of last season following a game in which they scored 9 runs or more. Conversely, Milwaukee has played 11-3 to the under this season following a game in which they allowed 8 runs or more. The Brewers Adrian Houser has made 2 starts versus St. Louis this season and pitched 14.0 innings of scoreless baseball. That includes a complete game shutout win on 9/4. The Brewers are hitting a horrible .178 as a team over their previous 7 games. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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09-22-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Dodgers (Buehler) @ Rockies (Marquez) 8:40 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Under 10.5 (10*) Walker Buehler has made 2 starts versus Colorado this season and both came at Coors Field. During those 2 outings Buhler posted a stellar 2.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through 13.0 innings pitched. Buehler has recoded quality starts in 12 of his previous 13 outings. The Dodgers bullpen has a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP throughout its last 7 games. German Marquez is one of the few Colorado starters in franchise history to master pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez is 13-3 in his home team starts in 2021 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Colorado bullpen has struggled for the better part of this season but that’s not been the case recently. During their previous 7 games the Rockies relievers have a combined 2.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Colorado has seen just 2 of their last 11 games go over the total. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Lions @ Packers 8:15 PM ET Game# 297-298 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) The Packers are coming off a miserable performance in their season opener after being walloped 38-3 by New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite. The game was played in Jacksonville because of damages inflicted by Hurricane Ida to the Saints home stadium. There was unequivocally more Packers fans at that contest than that of New Orleans. So, they can’t use playing on their road as an excuse. The Packers were brutal offensively as they were only able to amass a mere 229 yards of total offense and turned the ball over 3 times. On a positive note, it was a deceiving 38 points allowed by Green Bay considering they only surrendered 322 yards on defense and were victimized by its own offense giveaways. Aaron Rogers showed the rust from not playing in the preseason and being absent from offseason team activities going just 15-28 for 133 yards passing in addition to being intercepted twice. Green Bay has been in the role of a double-digit favorite several times in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, the Packers have played 9-0 to the under during its last 9 as a favorite of 10.0 or greater. Those 9 contests had an average total of 47.1 and there was a combined total of only 38.4 points scored per game. Detroit was able to accumulate 430 yards of offense in their season opening 41-33 home loss to San Francisco. However, a big chunk of those yards came on its final 2 drives when they were down 41-17 and the 49ers were in soft pass coverage. The Lions have seen just 1 of their last 5 games against Green Bay go over the total. |
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09-20-21 | Blue Jays -128 v. Rays | 4-6 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Ray) @ Rays (Baz) 7:10 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: Blue Jays -128 (5*) The Rays Shane Baz will be making his MLB debut versus Toronto. Baz has put up excellent numbers at AA and AAA ball this season while compiling a 2.06 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 17 starts. However, he hasn’t faced anything close to a powerful batting order like Toronto in the minors, and he’s also has only averaged just 4.6 innings pitched per start in the minors this season. The Rays have held a comfortable lead in the AL East for about a month now and look to the regular season finish line. Tampa Bay has gone an uninspiring 4-7 in their last 11 games. The Rays are also averaging just a paltry 3 runs scored per game and have an anemic .192 team batting average throughout its previous 7 outings. Toronto has gone a red-hot 18-4 in their last 22 games. The Blue Have scored 5 runs or more in 16 of their previous 20 games. That’s significant since the send their ace Robbie Ray to the mound today who has dominated Tampa Bay this season. During 5 starts versus Tampa Bay in 2021, Rays has a brilliant 1.85 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, struck out 49 while walking just 3, and averaged 6.8 innings pitched per start. The Blue Jays bullpen has recoded an excellent 0.87 WHIP over their last 7 games. Bet on the Blue Jays for a money line wager. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 295-296 Play On: Ravens +4.0 (5*) Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 77-27 (.740) in regular season home games. Regardless of their numerous injury losses they’ve endured thus far, that strong home field advantage must be considered, and especially so as more than a field goal underdog. Furthermore, the Ravens are 50-14 (.781) in their last 64 regular season home games when facing a non-division opponent. Baltimore is also 5-0 in their last 5 home openers and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.4 points per game. One more item of note, under Harbaugh Baltimore is 12-1 straight up and 11-2 ATS in home games during the season’s first 2 weeks. I know it’s a tough ask to bet against the Chiefs in any situation, but I’m supremely confident this is a optimum betting situation to do so. The Chiefs are only 3-3 straight up and 0-3-3 ATS in their last 6 as an away favorite of 4.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Kansas City was extremely fortunate to beat Cleveland 33-29 in their home opener last Sunday in a game they failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. Since 2009, any non-division home underdog of 4.5 or less (Ravens) that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss in which it allowed 14 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 22-6 ATS (78.6%) and they won 21 of those 28 contests straight up. Bet on the Ravens plus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 293-294 Play On: Chargers -3.0 (5*) In what should be an entertaining game to watch, it will come down to which defense can get the most stops at crucial moments of the contest. With that being said, I have way more confidence in the Chargers ability to do so as opposed to Dallas’ stop unit. The Cowboys did give defending world champion Tampa Bay all they can handle in their season opening 31-29 road loss while easily covering as an 8.0-point underdog. With Dak Prescott back at quarterback and his dynamic trio of wide receivers, the Cowboys potent offense racked up 391 yards through the air. However, they also allowed Tampa Bay to amass 431 yards of total offense and that includes 379 coming via their passing game. Somehow the Cowboys managed to lose this game despite having 451 yards of total offense and being a +3 in the turnover department. A poor defense this season will once again plague the Cowboys ability to win on a consistent basis. The Chargers are coming off an impressive 26-16 road win at Washington last Sunday. They held Washington to a mere 259 yards while also accumulating a time of possession edge of 36:03 to 23:57. Justin Herbert showed no signs of a sophomore jinx as he was 31-47 for 334 yards and averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per passing attempt against a formidable Washington defense. Dating back to last season, the Chargers have won 5 straight games. Bet on the Chargers minus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Vikings +3.5 (5*) Minnesota is coming off a surprising 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. However, they have responded well in a small sample size of betting situations exactly like this one under head coach Mike Zimmer. Since Zimmer has been their head coach, the Vikings are 4-0 SU&ATS as a non-division road underdog of 6.0 or less when coming off a non-division loss by 13 points or fewer. Conversely, since 2018, Arizona is 0-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite when facing an opponent coming off a loss and they were outscored by an average of 7.7 points per game. Furthermore, public betting will certainly side with the Cardinals in this one following their 38-13 road win as a 3.0-point underdog at Tennessee last week. It’s rarely that easy and this will be a prime example of such. Any NFL home favorite of 5.0 or less (Cardinals) playing in Game 2 or 3 of their season, and they’re coming off an away win by 25 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 0-10 ATS since 1988. The away underdogs also won 7 of those 10 contests straight up. This clearly indicates to me that you shouldn’t overreact to a reasonably sized home favorite coming off a convincing road win in early season action. Bet on the Vikings plus the points. |
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09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
Broncos @ Jacksonville 1:00 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Over 45.0 (10*) I thought prized rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence acquitted himself very well in his NFL debut last week despite the Jaguars 37-21 loss at Houston. Granted he did throw 3 interceptions. Nonetheless, he also threw 332 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, the Jacksonville defense was terrible. They allowed Houston to accumulate 449 yards of total offense and made vagabond quarterback Tyrod Taylor resemble a future Hall of Fame inductee. Houston was also 12-21 (57.1%) on 3rd down conversions. The Jags also allowed the Texans to average a massive 8.8 yards per passing attempt which is brutal by NFL standards. Teddy Bridgewater was solid in his Denver debut going 28-36 passing for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Broncos also ran the ball extremely well while accounting for 165 yards and averaged a terrific 5.9 yards per rushing attempts. Bet on this game to over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Fresno State +11 v. UCLA | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ UCLA 10:45 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Fresno State +11.5 (10*) UCLA is coming off a huge 38-27 upset win at home over LSU which has catapulted them to a #13 national ranking. Following Saturday’s non-conference game versus Fresno, the Bruins have their PAC-12 opener versus Stanford up next. This has the earmarks of a flat spot for a UCLA program doesn’t possess much if any experience of handling success under current head coach Chip Kelly. If you think Fresno State is going to be intimidated on the road against #13 UCLA, then think again. The Bulldogs already traveled to #4 Oregon 2 weeks ago and that contest was tied 21-21 into the 4th quarter before they fell short in a 31-24. Nonetheless, they easily covered that game as an 18.0-point underdog. That’s the same Oregon team that went to then #2 Ohio State last week and knocked them off which ended the Buckeyes 22-game home winning streak. Throughout their first 3 game, the Fresno State defense is allowing a mere 3.6 yards per play. Conversely, their offense has been efficient led by unheralded quarterback Jake Haener who has completed 73.6% of his passes while throwing for 1009 yards and 8 touchdowns against 0 interceptions through their first 3 contests. Bet on Fresno State plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Charlotte +5 v. Georgia State | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Georgia State 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Charlotte +5.0 (5*) Georgia State has started the season with blowout losses to Army 43-10 and North Carolina 59-17. The failed to cover on each occasion and by a combined 52.0 points. They were also outgained in total yards those 2 contests by a combined 963-448. Charlotte opened the season with an upset win over Duke 31-28. They followed that up with an easy 38-14 win over Gardner Webb and covered as a 23.5-point favorite. They averaged 477.0 yards of total offense in those victories. Charlotte will have success running the ball against Georgia State and that will be the key to us covering. Bet on Charlotte plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Utah v. San Diego State +8.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: San Diego State +8.5 (5*) San Diego State is coming off a 38-14 blowout win at Arizona in a game they closed as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s the same Arizona team that lost by 5 of BYU in their season opener. Lastly, BYU defeated Utah 26-17 last Saturday as a 7.0-point home underdog in a bitter in state rivalry game. This also presents a rare opportunity for San Diego State (2-0) to defeat PAC-12 teams in consecutive weeks. Any college football home team (San Diego State) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Utah) coming off a road SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 25.0 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 36-3 (92.3%) straight up since 2017. That straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the better than 1 touchdown home underdog in this matchup. By the way, those home teams were also 31-6-2 ATS in those games as well. Bet on San Diego State plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4 | 38-24 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Indiana 12:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This opening line was extremely fishing with #8 Cincinnati being installed as just a 3-point favorite at Indiana. Just as I expected, public bettors were lured in by the sportsbooks bait and jumped all over the nationally ranked Bobcats. Thus, the number at the time of this writing was either 3.5 or 4.0 depending on where you look. Taking the road favorite in this spot has sucker play written all over it. Cincinnati sleepwalked through the 1st half of their home game last week against an FCS team Murray State, and it resulted in a 7-7 tie at intermission. Ultimately Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half to prevail 42-7 while failing to cover as a 36.5-point favorite. Nonetheless, it was a less than inspiring performance and they were greatly benefitted by 4 Murray State turnovers. Now they’ll face an Indiana team that was blown out 34-6 in their season opener at #5 Iowa. So why shouldn’t we expect a similar result versus the 8th ranked Bobcats? Because it’s never that easy my friends. Furthermore, Cincinnati could be caught looking past Saturday to next week’s trip to South Bend where they’ll take on #10 Notre Dame. It’s worth noting that Indiana began the season ranked #16 and with high hopes of being a Big 10 sleeper. An upset of Cincinnati would surely get them back into the Top 25, not to mention being a major confidence booster. Additionally, the 34-6 final score at Iowa was a bit askew since the Hawkeyes returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 233 yards of total offense. That was the same Iowa team that won at #9 Iowa State last week as a 4.0-point underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. By the way, Indiana bounced back with a 56-14 blowout win over Idaho. Any non-conference college football home team (Indiana) that coming off a win by 35 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Cincinnati) who allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 51-11 (82.2%) straight up since 2012. This straight up betting angle takes on added value because it supports the home underdog. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Braves (Anderson) @ Giants (Webb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Giants -1.5 (+128) (5*) The sharps are betting the over in this game but that’s not the way I am going to go. However, what I took away from that betting pattern is they must think most of the offensive production is going to come from San Francisco based on this starting pitching matchup. After all, the Giants Logan Webb has gone a perfect 9-0 in his home team starts this season with an outstanding 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Webb has also gone 12-1 in his team starts this year as a money line favorite of -110 or greater and the Giants outscored the opposition by an average of 2.4 runs per game. By the way, speaking of the Giants expected to provide the bulk of scoring in this matchup, they have averaged a robust 7.4 runs scored per game while smacking 15 home runs throughout their previous 7 outings. The Giants bullpen has also performed extremely well during that 7-game span while collecting a staff 2.83 ERA. The Giants will be facing right-handed starter Ian Anderson tonight. The Giants are a highly profitable 69-33 (.676) against right-handed starting pitchers this season. In further regards to Ian Anderson, he has an uninspiring 5.63 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over his last 4 starts. Quite frankly, Anderson is very fortunate to not have a much higher ERA through that period considering his massive WHIP. Bet on the Giants for a run-line wager. |
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09-17-21 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler) @ Mets (Walker) 7:10 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Under 7.5 (5*) The Phillies Zack Wheeler has made 4 starts against the Mets this season with a terrific 2.15 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and averaged 7.3 innings pitched per appearance. Additionally, in his last 2 versus the Mets, Wheeler didn’t allow an earned run over 16.0 inning pitched. The Mets Tijuan Walker has made 2 home starts versus Philadelphia this season and compiled an excellent 1.93 ERA. The Mets have played 13-4 to the under this season whenever there was a total of 7.0 or 7.5 and there was only a combined average of 5.4 runs scored per game. The Mets have hosted Philadelphia 7 times in 2021 and just 1 of those games went over the total. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-17-21 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Buehler) @ Reds (Castillo) 7:10 ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Under 8.5 (5*) The Reds Luis Castillo has been brilliant during his last 6 home starts while posting a 1.66 ERA and he averaged a lofty 6.3 innings pitched per start. As a matter of fact, Castillo has recorded a quality start in 10 of his last 11 outings. Castillo can take comfort in knowing that his bullpen has been lights out of late while registering a staff 2.18 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Castillo will be facing a Dodgers team that has outscored their opponents this season by a sizable average of 1.7 runs per game.. Since 2019, Castillo has pitched 14-2 to the under when facing teams that average outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. The Reds bats have been silent of late which is evidenced by them averaging 2.7 runs scored per game in their last 7. Furthermore, Cincinnati had 7 hits or fewer in 8 of their previous 10 games. The Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has been unequivocally one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball this season. Buehler has a terrific 2.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP during 29 starts in 2021. The Dodgers bullpen has a sparkling 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-15-21 | Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Rockies (Senzatela) @ Braves (Ynoa) 7:20 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: Under 9.0 (10*) Antonio Senzatela has pitched 4-1 to the under in his last 5 starts with a 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and averaged 6.6 innings pitched per outing. The current Braves roster has gone just 14-68 (.206) lifetime when facing Senzatela. Colorado has witnessed just 5 of their last 20 road games going over the total. The Atlanta pitcher Ynoa has been sharp in 7 home starts this season while compiling a 2.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The Braves have gone over the total in only 4 of their last 21 games. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Las Vegas 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Las Vegas +4.0 (5*) The Raiders are 15-17 during the past 2 seasons. However, despite that mediocrity NFL betting history has shown home underdogs in their season openers on Monday night have been extremely profitable. Any Monday night home underdog of 5.5 or less that’s playing in their season opener, and they won 10 or more of its last 32 games, resulted in those home dogs going 15-1 (93.7%) ATS since 1983. Those home dogs also won 11 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on Las Vegas plus the points |
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09-13-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -123 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Rays (McHugh) @ Blue Jays (Manoah) 7:07 ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Blue Jays -122 (10*) Colin McHugh has pitched very well for Tampa Bay this season. However, he hasn’t exceeded more than 3.0 innings pitched in any of his 31 appearance this season. That’s problematic when considering the Rays bullpen has a lofty 6.31 ERA and 1.63 Whip over their previous 7 games, and they’ll be facing a red-hot offensive team today. Additionally, the Rays are coming off yesterday’s 8-7 loss to Detroit. Tampa Bay is a dismal 7-13 (.350) this season following a 1-run loss, and an otherwise sensational 82-41 (.667) in the rest of its games. Toronto has gone a sizzling hot 11-1 in their last 12. Furthermore, the Blue Jays have scored 8 runs or more in 7 of its last 11 and cracked 18 home runs over their previous 7 games. Alex Manoah has made 2 starts against Tampa Bay this year with a brilliant 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings pitched. Bet on the Blue Jays for a money line wager. Bet the Blue Jays for a Top Play money line wager. |
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09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints OVER 49 | 3-38 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Green Bay vs. New Orleans 4:25 PM ET Game# 483-484 Play On: Over 49.0 (5*) This game was originally scheduled to be played in New Orleans but had to be moved to Jacksonville due to weather damage and dangerous conditions. Nonetheless, New Orleans has played 7-0 to the over in their last 7 season openers with a combined average of 63.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, since 2011, the Saints have played 8-0 to the over in season openers when there was a total of 53.0 or less, and there was a combined average of 64.3 points scored per game. Since head coach Sean Payton began his tenure in New Orleans, he’s gone up against Green Bay 6 times, and 5 of those contests went over the total. Digging deeper into those head-to-head matchups showed me that if there was a number of 46.0 or greater, then those games played 5-0 to the over with a combined average of 68.8 points scored per game. With star quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center the Packers have played 8-2 to the over in their previous 10 season openers. Green Bay has also played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 season openers not played at Lambeau Field and when there was a total of 47.0 or greater. Lastly, Green Bay has scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 10 as a favorite in games not played at home. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*) I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team. On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals OVER 47 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game#467-468 Play On: Over 47.0 (5*) Since 2019, Cincinnati has played 5-0 to the over at home whenever there was a total of 45.5 or greater. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 57.4 points scored per game. Joe Burrow is coming off an impressive rookie season despite it being cut in half due to injury. Burrow has a talented trio of receivers at his disposal that can stretch the field. Conversely, this is a Bengals defense that allowed 26.5 points and 389.4 yards per game a season ago. Nothing they did in the offseason suggests that there will be vast improvement defensively. The Vikings offense should be able to put on a sizable number of points against a porous Cincinnati defense. I especially look for running back Dalvin Cook to have a monster day against a defense that allowed 148 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per rushing attempt last season. That will in turn make for some some advantageous play action passing opportunities for the tremendous wide receiving tandem of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Those 2 combined for 162 catches, 2325 yards, and 21 touchdowns last season. On a negative note, the Vikings defense was terrible a season ago while allowing 29.7 points and 393.3 yards per game. Like the Bengals stop unit, I see no reason to believe Minnesota will be markedly improved on defense. Since 2019, Minnesota has played 11 road games in which there was a total of 45.5 or greater and there was a combined average of 55.2 points scored per contest. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Washington @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Washington +7.0 (5*) Michigan figures to be a heavily bet side in this matchup because bettors tend to remember what happened the week before, and seldom look at any other factor. Washington was shocked last week in a 13-7 loss to Montana in a game they were a 22.0-point home favorite. If there’s such a thing of a team looking past their season and home opener, then Washington was a text back example of such. Conversely, Michigan is coming off an impressive 47-14 blowout win over Western Michigan, and easily covered as a 16.0-point home favorite. Wolverine fans were ecstatic with the performance of their offense that racked up 551 total yards. However, that was against a team that plays in a conference (MAC) where defense has historically been an afterthought, and high scoring games occur in regularity. Washington’s defense will keep them in the game, and their offense will do enough to stay within the number, and possibly even pull off an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the points afforded to me. Bet on Washington plus the points. |
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09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 56 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Over 56.0 (5*) Both teams showed some offensive explosiveness in their season openers. Kentucky produced 554 yards of total offense in their 45-10 win over UL-Monroe. The Wildcats won by that lopsided margin despite being a -3 in the turnover department. They won’t have the luxury of playing against an inept offense like UL-Monroe that was only able to register 87 total yards for the entire game. The Missouri offense will be an exponentially tougher challenge for Kentucky’s defense. The Tigers recorded 468 yards of offense in last week’s 34-24 win over Central Michigan. The Tigers were well balanced offensive in gaining 211 yards on the ground and 257 through the air. However, on a negative note, Missouri’s defense allowed Central Michigan to rack up 474 yards of total offense including 301 via their passing game. That’s a concern against a Kentucky team that passed for 419 yards last week. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
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09-11-21 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 73 | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 7:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Over 73.0 (5*) This is a high number for a reason and that’s not going to deter me in any way, shape, or form from placing my wager. Both teams are coming off season opening wins over FCS opponents in which they combined to score 100 points and amass 1017 yards of total offense. Additionally, North Texas allowed their opponent Northwestern State to rack up 418 yards of total offense. Both teams playing at warp speed on offense evidenced by North Texas running 76 plays and SMU 73 in their season openers. These teams have met in each of the previous 4 seasons with final scores of 65-35, 49-27, 46-23, and 54-32. If you’re keeping score at home, that calculates to a combined 82.3 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Padres (Musgrove) @ Dodgers (Urias) 10:10 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Under 8.0 (5*) The Dodgers Julio Urias has pitched 3-0 to the under in his last 3 starts with a brilliant 1.62 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Urias can also rely on a red-hot bullpen staff which has recorded an excellent 1.06 ERA throughout its previous 7 games. The Dodgers have played 17-4-2 to the under in their last 23 games. Los Angeles also has a poor .202 team batting average over their previous 7 games. The Padres Joe Musgrove has exhibited excellent form over his last 3 starts while posing a 1.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and averaged 6.8 innings pitched per outing. San Diego is coming off an 8-5 win over the Angels in their last game. The Padres have played 6-1-1 to the under in their previous following a game which went over the total. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5 | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Tampa Bay -7.5 (5*) Dallas allowed 33 points or more in 8 of their 16 games last season. I am not seeing any evidence on paper at least that the Cowboys defense will be vastly improved heading into this season. Surely not enough to predict they will slow down an explosive offense like Tampa Bay and especially so on the road. Additionally, the Tampa Bay defensive front figures to give an average at best Dallas offensive line fits, and especially without their outstanding guard Zack Martin being sidelined after testing positive for COVID. The defending Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a season in which they went 15-5 which includes the playoffs and Super Bowl. They will be facing a Dallas team that went a disappointing 6-10 year. Since 2006, NFL home pick/favorites playing their season opener on a Thursday night that won between 13 and 16 games the year before have gone 10- straight up and 7-1-2 ATS. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 13.0 points per game. Additionally, if those home teams were facing an opponent that won 10 or fewer regular season games the season before, the betting angle improves to 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.8 points per contest. If your line is indeed 7.5, I would suggest paying the extra juice and buying it down to the key number of 7.0. Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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09-08-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -106 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rays (McClanahan) @ Red Sox (Eovaldi) 7:10 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Red Sox -106 (10*) The Red Sox have lost 4 straight games. However, they’ve gone a profitable 7-2 this season immediately following 4 straight losses and that includes 4-0 the last 4. Furthermore, Boston is a perfect 3-0 at home this season following 4 straight losses and outscored their opponents by a combined decisive margin of 25-3. Nathan Eovaldi has made 2 home starts versus Tampa Bay in 2021, went 7.0 innings on both occasions, and compiled a sparkling 1.29 ERA while doing so. Eovaldi has also exhibited terrific form over his last 5 starts with a 2.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Bet the Red Sox for a Top Play money line wager. |
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09-08-21 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Mets (Hill) @ Marlins (Alcantara) 7:10 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Under 7.5 (5*) Rich Hill has displayed good form over his last 3 starts while recording a 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and all of those outings styed under the total. The Mets bullpen has been solid over their previous 7 games with a staff 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. New York has played 12-5-3 to the under during their previous 20 games. Miami went over the total in their previous game. They have played 6-0 to the under during their last 6 immediately following a game that went over. Sandy Alcantara has exhibited excellent form over his last 5 starts while registering a 2.04 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and averaged a lofty 7.1 innings pitched per outing. Alcantara has pitched 10-2-1 to the under at home this season with a brilliant 2.34 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Marlins bullpen has been lights out over their previous 7 games with a staff 0.68 ERA. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-07-21 | Phillies -102 v. Brewers | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Phillies (Nola) @ Brewers (Lauer) 7:40 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Phillies -102 (10*) Eric Lauer has pitched well for Milwaukee this season. However, he has pitched 5.0 innings or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. That’s problematic when considering the Brewers bullpen has recorded a terrible 9.72 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and allowed an alarmingly high 11 home runs over their previous 7 games. Milwaukee has gone a terrific 46-24 (.657) on the road this season, but just an ordinary 38-31 (.551) at home. The Brewers are coming off yesterday’s 12-0 blowout loss to Philadelphia. Milwaukee is a dismal 1-7 this season following a shutout loss. Aaron Nola has been somewhat disappointing this season. Nevertheless, Nola has a brilliant 0.83 WHIP over his last 3 starts which certainly translates to good form. The maligned Phillies bullpen has been excellent of late while registering a staff 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP throughout its previous 7 games. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 10 and have also scored 7 or more runs in 8 of its last 11 games. Bet the Phillies for a Top Play money line wager. |
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09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 10-5 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Giants (Gausman) @ Rockies (Freeland) 4:10 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Under 11.0 (5*) Kevin Gausman has posted an excellent 1.79 ERA and 0.99 WHIP during 15 road starts this season. Additionally, Gausman has a brilliant 1.73 ERA and 0.80 WHIP during 11 starts in day games. The Giants have played 20-10 (66.7%) to the under this season this season as a money line road favorite of -110 or greater. Gausman can also take comfort in knowing that his bullpen staff has posted a 1.79 ERA throughout their previous 7 games. Kyle Freeland has pitched 9-1 to the under this season when facing a team with a winning record and there was just a combined average of 6.3 runs scored per game. Freeland is 4-0 in his last 4 team starts with a sparkling 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Rockies bullpen has recorded a respectable 3.45 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over their last 7 games. Kevin Gausman has a superb 2.52 ERA in 27 starts this season. The Giants currently have a team batting average of .243 this season. Any National League team with a total of 10.0 or greater that has a team batting average of .245 or less, and they have a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better, resulted in those games playing 44-12 (78.6%) to the under since 1997. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Florida State 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Florida State +7.0 (5*) It will being an emotional night in Tallahassee. Not only will it be the Seminoles home opener, but they’ll be honoring the late great Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden who recently passed away. Additionally, it will mark the return of former Central Florida quarterback Mackenzie Milton who’s now a Florida State Seminole. Milton hasn’t played since sustaining a gruesome injury 3 years ago but will be under center tonight. If Milton can stay healthy and is anywhere near as good as he was as in his freshmen year at Central Florida, the Seminoles experienced offense will take a huge step forward and starting with tonight. I think Notre Dame will be very good once again this season. However, their current #9 national ranking is more about brand name and last year’s run to the College Football Playoffs. The Fighting Irish have to replace 13 starters from last year’s senior laden team and will go through some early growing pains. I am not sold on Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan who was named the starter. Coan doesn’t have the mobility nor is as good a passer as recently departed 3-year starter Ian Book. Bet on Florida State plus the points. |
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09-04-21 | Mariners -119 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Arizona (Castellanos) 8:10 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Mariners -118 (10*) The Diamondbacks will be facing lefty Marco Gonzalez today. Arizona is a dismal 10-28 versus lefty starting pitchers this season. Furthermore, Gonzalez has been brilliant over his last 6 starts while recording a 1.58 ERA and 0.80 in addition to averaging 6.7 innings pitched per appearance. Gonzalez will be facing an Arizona team which has an abysmal .207 teams batting average and hit just 4 home runs during their previous 7 games played. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 4 road games and that includes 4-0 during its previous 4. Bet on the Mariners for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*) Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette. |
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09-04-21 | Indiana +4 v. Iowa | 6-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Indiana +4.0 (5*) This is an Indiana team that went 6-2 last season with their lone defeats coming by 7 at #2 Ohio State and by 6 to Ole Miss in a bowl game played without star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Hoosiers return 17 starters from that squad which includes a healthy Penix. The Hoosiers held 5 of their 7 Big 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer a season ago. They are led Big 10 and AFCA National coach of the year Tom Allen who has guided Indiana to a combined 14-7 record the past 2 seasons and includes 6-1 in the Big 10 a year ago. #17 Indiana will be more than up to the task when they travel to Iowa City on Saturday to take on the #18 Hawkeyes. Bet on Indiana plus the points. |
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09-04-21 | Penn State v. Wisconsin UNDER 50 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Wisconsin 12:00 Game# 165-166 Play On: Under 50.0 (5*) Both team’s strength will be on the defensive side of the ball. I am forecasting neither team have any degree of success running the ball. The Badgers finished last season averaging 10.0 points scored per game over their final 4 Big 10 Conference contests. The combined points in this game should be closer to 40 than 50. Bet on this contest to go under the total. |
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09-03-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Dodgers (Price) @ Giants (DeSclafani) 9:45 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Over 8.5 (10*) David Price is no longer the dominant pitcher he was earlier in his career. This current Giants active roster has a combined career .296 batting average, .333 PBP, and .944 OPS when facing price. Furthermore, Price has pitched 19-7 to the over in his career starts on the road in September and there were a combined 11.6 runs scored per game. Anthony DeSclafani has made 5 starts versus the Dodgers in 2021 while compiling a large 9.43 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. This current Dodgers active roster has a combined .328 batting average when facing DeSclafani. DeSclafani has pitched 9-0 to the over since last season began in home night games with a combined total of 11.9 runs being scored per outing. During his last 5 starts overall, DeSclafani recorded a poor 7.16 ERA and 1.90 WHIP while averaging just 3.2 innings pitched per outing. Bet on this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Virginia Tech +5.5 (5*) Virginia Tech will be out to revenge last season’s 56-45 loss at North Carolina in a game they failed to cover as a short 3.0-point underdog. The Hokies had absolutely no answer against a supremely talented North Carolina offense. However, the Tar Heels lost 4 key skill position players that will be playing in the NFL this season. Granted North Carolina returns Heisman Trophy Award candidate and star quarterback Sam Howell. But he will be depending on several newcomers to replace the talented cast of characters previously mention. Furthermore, although North Carolina returns 10 defensive starters, they were a stop unit which allowed 41 points or more on 4 separate occasions last year. The 15 returning starters that return for Virginia Tech will have a bad taste in their mouth after having been part of the first Hokies team to miss a bowl game in 28 years. Since 2018, Virginia Tech has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home underdog of 9.5 or less and averaged 37.7 points scored per game while doing so. Any college football Game 1 conference home underdog of 3.0 to 8.0 that’s playing with revenge has gone 9-0 ATS since 2011. As a matter of fact, 7 of those situations occurred last season and if those teams were a dog of 5.0 to 8.0 they went 3-0 straight up. Bet on Virginia Tech plus the points. |
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09-02-21 | Indians -107 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Indians (McKenzie) @ Royals (Minor) 8:10 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Indians -107 (10*) Kansas City has gone a dismal 1-10 this season versus Cleveland and that includes 0-6 at home. The Royals will go with veteran lefty Mike Minor on the mound. Minor has made 2 starts against Cleveland this year and posted an awful 8.68 ERA during those outings. The Indians have gone 8-3 during their previous 11 and that includes a current 3-game win streak. Throughout their previous 7 Cleveland has averaged 6.0 runs scored per game and smacked 16 home runs. That’s not good news for Kansas City backers when considering Mike Minor has allowed 8 home runs over his last 29 1/3 innings pitched. Triston McKenzie has made 2 starts against Kansas City in 2021 and pitched 12.0 innings of scoreless baseball. McKenzie has exhibited excellent form in his last 3 starts while compiling a brilliant 1.29 ERA and 0.43 WHIP. Bet on the Indians for a Top Play wager. |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina +10 v. Appalachian State | 19-33 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State 7:30 PM ET Game# 139-140 Play On: East Carolina +10.0 (5*) The Appalachian State returns 7 players on an offense that averaged 34 points and 450 yards per game last season. However, they will have a new quarterback. Former Clemson and Duke quarterback Chase Brice is slated to be under center for the Mountaineers. Brice did throw for over 2100 yards last year, but he had a horrible 10/15 touchdown to interception ratio while completing an uninspiring 54.2% of his passes. Despite being a highly rated and sought after quarterback coming out of high school, Brice hasn’t come close to living up to his perceived potential. East Carolina returns 20 starters from a team that went 3-6 last season. However, they did average a robust 30 points scored per game while doing so. They will be led once again by junior quarterback Holton Ahlers. All Ahlers has done is account for 7,093 career passing yard and 51 touchdown passes versus 22 interceptions. Ahlers also has amassed 1,060 career rushing yards and ran for 13 touchdowns as well. With 10 offensive returning starter, I look for East Carolina to provide us with a puncher’s chance in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset in this one. Nonetheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points. In what may end up being a seesaw affair, bet on East Carolina plus the number. |
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09-01-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Braves (Fried) @ Dodgers (Scherzer) 10:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Atlanta +1.5 (-115) (10*) Max Scherzer has paid huge dividends for the Dodgers since coming over from Washington at the trade deadline. However, Scherzer has made 2 starts since last year versus Atlanta including 1 in 2021 and had a large 7.94 ERA while allowing 6 home runs during 11 1/3 innings pitched during those outings. Granted the Dodgers are currently red-hot, but it’s been much to do with their pitching as opposed to their perceived offensive prowess. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers have averaged 3.5 runs scored and 6.4 hits per game throughout their last 12 outings. Max Fried is finally healthy and it shows. During his last 6 starts Fried has compiled an excellent 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while walking only 4 batters in 40.0 innings pitched. Since the start of last season, Fried has made 3 starts versus the Dodgers and posted a sparkling 2.41 ERA. Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-15 (.732) in their last 56 games with Max Fried as their starting pitcher. Bet the Braves +1.5 on the run-line. |
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08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Cubs (Davies) @ Twins (Gant) 8:10 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Over 9.0 (5*) The Twins were hoping that a change of scenery would be beneficial for John Gant when they traded for him at the deadline. However, that clearly hasn’t been the case. Gant has witnessed each of his previous 6 starts go over the total and his massive 10.97 ERA through that stretch was a major contributing factor for those high scoring games. The Twins bullpen like they have been for most of the season has been shaky of late which is evidenced by a poor staff WHIP of 1.54 in their last 7 games. Minnesota has scored 3 and 2 runs during its previous 2 games. The Twins have played 13-4 to the over this season after scoring 3 runs or fewer during each of its previous 2 games. The Cubs have played 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 and averaged 6.1 runs per game in addition to launching 13 home runs. Kyle Davies has been extremely shaky over hjs last 5 starts with a 7.94 ERA and allowed 11 home runs in only 22 2/3 innings of work. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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08-31-21 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rockies (Gomber) @ Rangers (Lyles) 8:05 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Over 8.5 (5*) After struggling offensively for most of this season, Texas bats have come alive over their past 7 games. During that time, the Rangers have a .307 team batting averaged and hit 12 home runs. On a negative note for Rangers fans is that Jordan Lyles will be their starting pitcher today. Lyles has been terrible over his last 5 starts while recording a 8.46 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. It’s no wonder why all 5 of those games went over the total. Texas will be facing Colorado lefthander Austin Gomber who has shown bad form over his last 3 starts with a large 8.56 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. Furthermore, over those 3 appearances Gomber surrendered 5 home runs in 13 2/3 innings pitched. It also must be note, that 2 of those starts came on the road, so pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field can’t be used as an excuse for his recent struggles. If anything, Gomber has been much better on the road than at home this season. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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08-31-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Orioles (Akin) @ Blue Jays (Ryu) 7:07 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Over 10.0 (5*) The Orioles lefthander Keegan Akin is 0-7 in his road team starts this season with a 9.73 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. Akin had made 1 start versus Toronto this season and was shelled for 6 earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings pitched. He doesn’t figure to get much assistance from a Baltimore bullpen that has compiled an 8.36 ERA over its last 7 games. Baltimore has averaged a robust 6.9 runs scored per game and smacked 13 homers throughout their previous 7 outings. Baltimore is currently a money line road underdog of +259. The Orioles have played 15-6 to the over this season as a money line road underdog of +200 or greater. Hyun-Jin Ryu has displayed terrible form in his last 4 starts while posting a sizable 7.84 ERA. Toronto has seen 7 of 10 against Baltimore go over the total this season, and the teams combined to hit 33 home runs. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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08-30-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Braves (Smyly) @ Dodgers (Urias) 10:10 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: Braves +1.5 (-108) (5*) This current active roster of the Dodgers has gone a lackluster 14-60 (.233 BA) in their career at bats against Braves starter Drew Smyly. The usually powerful batting order of the Dodgers has struggled of late. Specifically speaking, they are averaging 3.3 runs scored per game and have a miserable .176 team batting average over the past 7 games. Southpaw Julio Urias has been solid all season for the Dodgers. Nevertheless, he will be facing an Atlanta team that has gone 22-14 versus lefthanded starter in 2021 while averaging 6.0 runs scored per game and smashing 56 home runs. There is an ample amount of betting value on the Braves as a money line underdog in this matchup. However, since we are being offered such a cheap price to take them as a run-line underdog it’s worth going that route instead. The Braves enter today on a terrific 13-game road winning streak. The current total on this game is 9.0. Since the start of last season, Drew Smyly has gone a perfect 8-0 in his road team starts when there’s been a total of 8.5 to 10.0. That basically tells me that Smyly has fared very well on the road when not be opposed by an opponent’s ace. Bet the Braves on the run-line. |