Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Brewers (Peralta) 7:08 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Under 7.5 Zac Gallen has made 2 starts versus Milwaukee this year and was brilliant in both outing while allowing just 1 earned run on 5 its and walked 2 in 14.0 innings. The Arizona bullpen has been extremely good of late while posting a staff 1.31 ERA/0.76 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Diamondbacks scored 6 runs last night which was mostly due to them smacking 3 home runs in the first 4 innings. However, we must keep into perspective, this is the same Arizona team that closed out their regular season schedule by scoring a combined 6 runs in their last 5 games and only averaged 4.0 hits per game throughout that stretch. Freddy Peralta has been lights out in his last 5 home starts while recording an excellent 1.48 ERA/0.46 WHIP during that stretch. The Brewers bullpen has a solid staff 2.25 ERA/1.16 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Milwaukee squandered opportunity after opportunity last night while scoring only 2 runs despite pounding out 12 hits and left 11 men on base. That won’t get nearly the opportunities to score tonight than they had last night against Arizona’s ace. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins +133 v. Phillies | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Marlins (Luzardo) @ Phillies (Wheeler) 7:08 PM ET Game# 945-946 Play On: Marlins +133 Jesus Luzardo is the lesser know of these 2 starting pitchers but has more than held his own this season. As a matter of fact, Miami is 6-1 versus fellow NL East teams this season when Luzardo was their starting pitcher and the young lefthander’s stellar 2.38 ERA/1.15 WIP during those outings was a major contributor to that success. During his last 4 starts versus teams not named Milwaukee, Luzardo has compiled a brilliant 0.75 ERA/0.71 versus some pretty good hitting teams like the Rays, Dodgers, Braves, and Padres. Miami has been in postseason mode for quite a while now as they’ve been batting for a Wild Card spot, they finally clinched on the nest to last day of regular season action. The Marlins have also held their own this season versus the defending National League champion Phillies by going 7-6 during those head-to-head meetings which includes 4-2 at Philadelphia. Give me the Marlins on the money line. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Pfadt) @ Brewers (Burnes) 7:05 PM ET Game# 949-950 Play On: Over 7.5 Despite Arizona being anemic offensively over the final week of regular season action this total moved from an opening number of 7.5 to 8.0. Some of that mover may be due to the slated Arizona starting pitcher Brandon Pfadt. During regular season play Pfadt made 18 starts and posted a lofty 5.70 ERA while surrendering 19 home runs in 90 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks have played 7-0-1 to the over in their last 8 on the road this season immediately following an off day and there was a combined average of 14.0 runs scored per game. Former National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes has once again had a very good season. However, his ERA was much better on the road than at home where 9 of his 14 starts went over the total and he posted an ordinary 4.27 ERA during those outings. During his lone start at home versus Arizona this year, Burnes allowed an alarmingly high 7 earned runs in 5.0 innings of work. Milwaukee has played 12-4 to the over at home versus NL West teams this season and there was a combined average of 10.3 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +103 v. Twins | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Blue Jays (Gausman) @ Twins ( Lopez) 4:38 PM ET Game# 947-948 Play On: Blue Jays +103 Pablo Lopez has been shaky over his last 3 starts with a 6.46 ERA. During his only start versus Toronto this year which came at home, Lopez went an uninspiring 5 2/3 innings and allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits including 2 surrendering 2 homers and walking 2. The total in this game is currently 7.0. Minnesota is a solid 47-34 at home this season but just 9-18 when there’s a total of 7.0 or 7.5. The indicator being when they face a quality starting pitcher at home, they don’t fare well at all. This is a Twins franchise that has struggled in the postseason during the past 25 years while going a miserable 6-27 in those high-profile games. Kevin Gausman has been very good in 3 of his last 4 starts. During that stretch the veteran Blue Jays hurler posted a stellar 1.75 ERA/1.01 WHIP. The Blue Jays have gone a solid 46-35 on the road this season and 39-27 during day games. Give me the Blue Jays on the money line. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants OVER 47 | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Giants 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Over 47.0 Seattle has allowed 316 yards or more passing in each of their first 3 games while giving up 29.3 points per contest. The Seahawks offense has produced 37 points scored in each of their previous 2 games while amassing 393 and 425 yards of total offense during those contests. The Giants offense is far from explosive but still not as bad as their early season numbers indicate. They’ve faced arguably the 2 best defenses in the NFC in San Francisco and Dallas during their first 3 games. However, when going up against Arizona’s stop unit in Week 2 the G-Men put up 31 points, 439 yards of total offense, and passed for 312 yards. The Giants are allowing 32.7 points per game. Any NFL home team like the Giants with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that averages 285 yards or less of total offense per game, and they were outgained in their previous contest by 200 yards or more, resulted in those games playing 30-7 (81.1%) to the over since 1983. Those 37 contests averaged 6.1 points more than the closing total. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -13.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: 49ers -13.5 These are water I very rarely swim in which is laying a double-digit number when it comes to NFL betting. However, there’s an exception to every rule and this one qualifies under that heading. The oddsmakers seem undeterred that the Cardinals (1-2) are coming off an impressive 28-16 win over Dallas in a game they closed as an 11.5-point home underdog and considering their 2 losses came by just a combined 7 points. However, they’ll be facing a beat on Sunday in San Francisco who’s 3-0 and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 90-42. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 or greater Like San Francisco that’s facing an opponent coming off a home underdog of 4.0 or more SU win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by an average of 24.6 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears OVER 46.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Over 46.5 Denver has been pathetic in their last 2 games while surrendering a combined 105 points and 1114 yards. Even a struggling offense like the Bears possess should have moderate success against them. The Broncos offensive production during their previous 2 contests has put up respectable numbers of 26.5 points scored and 381.0 yards gained per game. The Bear defense has left much to be desired over their previous 2 games while giving up a combined 65 points and 890 yards. Chicago has gone over in each of their 3 contests in 2023 and there was a combined 51.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -120 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
Ravens @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Browns -120 A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but as of this present moment, I’m of strong belief that Cleveland is the better team in this matchup and especially defensively. The Browns are 2-0 at home and won each contest in dominating fashion by a cumulative score of 51-6. Cleveland did lose at Pittsburgh 26-22 but by no fault of their defense. Pittsburgh was a beneficiary of 2 defensive touchdowns in that contest. As a matter of fact, the Browns defense has allowed just 1 touchdown thus far in 2023. Cleveland has won their last 2 at home versus the Ravens. During their first 3 contests, the Browns stop unit allowed only an average of 163.7 yards per game. You may be surprised to know that since 12/19/2021, Baltimore has gone an abysmal 0-9 SU when facing teams with a winning record. Give me the Browns on the money line. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
Falcons vs. Jaguars 9:30 AM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Under 43.0 The Falcons are averaging 18.0 points per game and allowing 18.3 points per contest during their 2-1 start to the season. They’re also averaging just 287.7 yards gained and 283.3 yards allowed per contest thus far. Those numbers don’t exactly translate to an exciting brand of football. Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing 38-17 division home loss to Houston which marked a 2nd consecutive defeat and dropped their season record to 1-2 (.333). The Jaguars have been regular travelers to Europe and recent seasons and have seen their last 4 go under the total with a combined average of 38.0 points scored per game. Any team like Jacksonville with a win percentage of between .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 10 points or more in which they allowed 28 points or greater, and there’s a total of 42.0 to 48.0, versus an opponent like Atlanta who has a winning record, resulted in those contests playing 25-1 (96.2%) to the under since 2012. That exact scenario except for a total is 44.5 or less, played 10-0 to the under since 2012 and with a combined average of 33.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Tennessee 7:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Over 59.5 The last 4 meetings between these schools have all gone over the total with a combined average of 71.4 points scored per game. I’m looking for a similar type of high scoring affair in this year’s matchup as well. Both teams’ offenses are balanced and very dynamic. Each defense is vulnerable. South Carolina allowed 519 yards including 487 through the air in last week’s 37-30 win over Mississippi State. The Gamecocks offense led by star quarterback Spencer Rattler is averaging 319 yards passing per game and an impressive 9.7 yards per aerial attempt. Tennessee averages 35.0 points scored and 463.8 yards per game thus far in 2023. Conversely, the Gamecocks defense allows 338 yards passing per game and an alarmingly high 8.7 yards per attempt. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Texas 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Texas -16.0 I had Kansas last Saturday as my Game of the Week and they won and covered 31-20 as a 9.5-point home favorite over BYU. However, I was extremely fortunate for a few reasons. I was the beneficiary of not 1 but 2 defensive touchdowns by the Jayhawks. I was also able to cover despite BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis throwing for 357 yards. Unfortunately for Kansas, they’ll be facing a far stronger opponent this week in #3 Texas (4-0). Even with #24 Kansas (4-0) being unbeaten and nationally ranked themselves, they find themselves as a substantial double-digit underdog. This appears to me to be a trap where the underdog is a very attractive option. However, I’m electing to go with a contrarian mindset in this one. By the way, if you are worried about Texas playing archrival and unbeaten Oklahoma next, then don’t be. Texas has gone 2-0 SUU&ATS the last 2 seasons in the game before facing the Sooners while covering as a favorite on each occasion. This is also a far better Texas team than those past 2 versions were. It’s also worth noting, Texas has scored 50 points or more in their last 3 games versus Kansas. Give me Texas minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Baylor v. Central Florida -10.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Baylor @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: UCF -10.5 Emotions will be high on Saturday afternoon in Orlando as Central Florida hosts their first ever Big 12 Conference game. The Golden Knights will also be out to atone for a disappointing 44-31 loss at Kansas State last week in a game they allowed 536 yards. UCF has an explosive offense which averages 38.3 points scored and 565.0 yards per game. The Golden Knights will be in a prime spot to make an impression against a Baylor team that’s 0-3 this season versus FBS opponents and allowed 440.3 yards per game. Any College Football favorite of 10.0 to 21.0-points like UCF that allowed 478 yards or more in their previous game, and they average 44o yards or more of total offense per game, versus an opponent like Baylor that allows 440.0 or more yards per contest, resulted in those home favorites going 45-17 ATS (72.6%) since 2014 and 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2017. Give me UCF minus points. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois v. Purdue +1 | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Purdue +1.0 Illinois is 2-2 but they’ve been far from impressive. Granted their losses have come versus national ranked team in Penn State by 17 and Kansas by 11. However, they escaped with home wins of 30-28 versus Toledo and 23-17 over Florida Atlantic. Purdue is 1-3 including 0-3 at home. However, they killed themselves with a combined 7 turnovers in double-digit loss to Syracuse (4-0) and Wisconsin (3-1). They had no trouble moving the ball in those defeats while amassing 396 yards of total offense versus Wisconsin and 403 against Syracuse. The good news is they’ll be facing an Illinois team that’s a turnover differential of -6 in their first 4 games and their defense is allowing 423.3 yards per contest. This is a very winnable game for the Boilermakers and especially so at home. Give me Purdue. |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 46 | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Florida @ Kentucky 12:00 ET Game# 139-140 Play On: Under 46.0 Kentucky has allowed a mere 15.0 points and 287.3 yards per game in their 3 contests versus FBS opponents this season. Kentucky’s offensive numbers can be a bit misleading considering they’ve played Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has played 7-0 to the under since the start of last season when facing a team with a winning record and there was a combined average of just 36.4 points scored per game. Conversely, Florida has allowed 15.7 points and 256.0 yards per game in its 3 contests versus FBS teams. The Gators saw all 3 of those games stay under and with a combined average of 36.3 points scored per contest. Florida has seen their last 3 versus Kentucky all go under the total and with a combined 35.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-29-23 | Utah v. Oregon State -3.5 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 52 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 9:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Oregon State -3.5 Oregon State is coming off a 38-35 at #16 Washington State in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. The loss dropped the #19 ranked Beavers season record to 3-1. It doesn’t get any easier this week versus #10 Utah (4-0). The Beavers are 18-10 SU in their last 28 at home. However, Oregon State is 14-1 in their previous 15 at home. That includes 5-0 SU&ATS as a conference favorite with an average victory margin of 19.8 points per game. Any college football conference home favorite of 14.5 or less Like Oregon State that’s playing in Game 3 through 10 and they’re coming off a conference favorite SU loss in which they scored 35 points or fewer, and they won 24 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .362 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by an average of 21.0 points per game. Give me Oregon State minus points. |
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09-28-23 | Rangers +100 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rangers (Montgomery) @ Mariners (Gilbert) 9:40 PM ET Game# 969-970 Play On: Rangers +100 For starters, Texas has gone 8-1 this season versus Seattle. Seattle’s Logan Gilbert has been shaky over his last 4 starts with a 5.09 ERA/1.44 WHIP and Seattle was 0-3 in those games. The Mariners are a dismal 6-18 this season when facing starting pitchers like Jordan Montgomery that possess a 3.70 ERA or better. Seattle is also a money-draining 8-23 in 2023 when facing teams like Texas that have a +1.0 or greater run per game differential. Seattle enters today feeling the pressure of losing 5 of their last 6 and in jeopardy of missing the postseason as a result. Texas is on the doorstep of winning the AL West and with a win at the very least will clinch a postseason berth. The Rangers scheduled starter Jordan Montgomery has been brilliant over his last 3 starts while compiling a 0.43 ERA and he went 7.0 innings on each occasion. The Rangers bullpen has a solid 2.84 ERA over their last 7 games. Montgomery faced Seattle once this season and pitched 7.0 innings of scoreless baseball. The Rangers enter today having won 8 of their last 9. Give me the Rangers on the money line. |
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09-28-23 | Lions -122 v. Packers | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 0 m | Show | |
Lions @ Packers 8:15 ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Lions -122 (Money Line) Detroit is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games versus their division rival Green Bay Packers. The Packers are averaging a deceiving 26.3 points per game when considering their mere 297.7 total yards per contest. Both teams enter this contest with a 2-1 record. However, Detroit is at +84.0 total yards per game and Green Bay is at -38.6 yards per contest. Which tells me the Lions are deserving of their winning record while Green Bay has been a tad bit lucky. Green Bay is coming off an 18-7 win over New Orleans as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Packers needed to overcome a 4th quarter deficit of 17-0 to earn that victory. Green Bay has rushed for 95 yards or fewer in each of their 3 games while Detroit has allowed 90 yards or fewer on the ground during each of their contests. Couple those numbers with the fact that Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love is completing only 53.1% of his passes on the season, and this doesn’t shape up to be a favorable matchup for Green Bay. Any NFL away team like Detroit that has a win percentage of .562 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay that’s coming off a home underdog SU win by 4 points or fewer in which they scored 13 points or more and they have a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those away teams going 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS since 1990. The average line for those 10 away teams was -1.0 and the average margin of victory was 14.6 points per game. Give me the Lions as a money line wager. |
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09-28-23 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Cubs (Stroman) @ Braves (Smith-Shawver) 7:20 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Over 9.5 Marcus Stroman has been brutal over his last 4 starts while posting a 13.85 ERA/2.77 WHIP and averaging just 3.3 innings pitched per outing. The Cubs bullpen has struggled of late with a staff 5.67 ERA/1.59 WHIP and they allowed an alarmingly high 6 home runs in 27.0 innings. That’s surely concerning when facing the best home run hitting team in baseball the Atlanta Braves who’ve belted 303 home runs this season. The Cubs have gone over the total in 8 of their last 11 games. A.J. Smith-Shawver has displayed bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a large 7.07 ERA/1.50 WHIP while also allowing 7 homers in just 14.0 innings pitched. Atlanta has gone over the total in 18 of their last 22 games. They’ve also played 12-1 to the over on Thursdays this season and 24-6 over when facing NL Central Division teams. The Braves have also seen their last 4 versus the Cubs all go over the total and there was a combined average of 12.0 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-28-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -125 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Sale) @ Orioles (Kremer) 6:35 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Orioles -125 Chris Sale is still a very good starting pitcher but certainly not the dominant force he once was. As a matter of fact, during his 3 starts versus Baltimore this season Salle had an awful 13.50 ERA/2.25 WHIP and gave up 5 homers in 12.0 innings pitched. The Red Sox are only averaging 3.0 runs scored per game throughout their previous 7 outings. The Red Sox are an abysmal 7-21 in their last 28 games and that includes a current 4-game losing streak. Conversely, Baltimore has won 4 in a row and is on the cusp of clinching the AL East title. Additionally, Baltimore is 36-17 this season when facing left-handed starting pitcher like Chris Sale. I’m not crazy about Orioles starter Dean Kremer, but Baltimore is 15-3 at home this season when’s he’s their starting pitcher. Give me the Orioles on the money line. |
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09-27-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 7 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Yankees (Cole) @ Blue Jays (Berrios) 7:07 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Under 7.0 Gerrit Cole is 6-0 in his last 6 team starts with a dominating 1.59 ERA/0.78 WHIP while recording a better than 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Cole has made 3 starts against Toronto this season with a brilliant 0.46 ERA. New York has averaged just 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 7 outings. Jose Berrios has been in very good form throughout his previous 4 starts while posting a 2.80 ERA/0.93 WHIP and just shy of a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto has played 40-2-2 to the under at home this season with Berrios as their starting pitcher and his stellar 3.11 ERA/1.15 in those outings was a key contributor to the low scoring games. The Blue Jays bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 2.84 ERA/1.19 WHIP. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-26-23 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Cubs (Steele) @ Braves (Elder) 7:20 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Over 9.5 Justin Steele has enjoyed a terrific season for the Cubs. However, he's struggled mightily over his last 2 starts while allowing 12 earned runs over 9.0 innings pitched. Steele made 1 uninspiring start versus Atlanta this season in which he allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings pitched. He was fortunate to give up only 3 earned runs in that outing when considering he allowed 8 hits and walked 4. The Cubs have averaged 6.4 runs scored per game throughout their last 7. Additionally, the Cubs have scored 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Atlanta has played 20-11 to the over this season when facing left-handed starting pitchers like Justin Steele and belted 58 homers during those 31 games. Atlanta has also played 16-4 to the over in their last 20 games heading into today. Atlanta's Bryce Elder has made 1 starts versus the Cubs in 2023 and allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 3 over only 4 1/3 innings pitched. Elder hasn't been good at all in his last 2 starts while allowing 8 earned runs on 12 hits which included 3 homers and walked 3 batters in 8 2/3 innings pitched. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-25-23 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Padres (Snell) @ Giants (Webb) 9:45 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Under 7.0 Both starting pitchers have been in terrific form in recent starts. Blake Snell has a dominating 0.56 ERA over his last 5 starts. Snell has made 5 starts versus San Francisco since last season and had an excellent 0.61 ERA during those outings while striking out 46 in 29 2/3 innings pitched. Logan Webb has strung together 5 quality starts in a row and in his last 3 has a terrific 1.80 ERA/0.95 WHIP while averaging a healthy 6.7 innings pitched per start. Webb has made 3 starts versus San Diego this year and recorded a 0.83 ERA/0.74 WHIP with all 3 games staying under. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Buccaneers +5.0 Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents. Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways. Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards. Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | 6-20 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Falcons +3.5 Any NFL non-division away underdog of between +2.0 to +5.0 like Atlanta that’s playing in Games 2 through 8 and is facing an opponent like Detroit that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those teams like Atlanta going 21-0 ATS since 2019. Those underdogs also went 20-0-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Falcons plus points. |
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09-24-23 | Titans v. Browns -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Titans @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Browns -3.0 (-120) The Browns are coming off an away favorite SU loss at Pittsburgh last Monday night. The Titans are coming off last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime win over the Chargers in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. Any NFL non-division home favorite of between 2.5 to 12.5 points that’s coming off a division away favorite SU loss, and they’re facing an opponent that’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests came by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | 37-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Texans @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Under 44.0 Jacksonville is coming off a 17-9 home loss to Kansas City. Houston comes off last Sunday’s 31-20 home loss to Indianapolis. Both games between these division rival went under the total last season and with an average combined score of 26.5 points scored per contest. Since 2019, any NFL team like Jacksonville that’s playing after Game 2 with total of between 38.0 to 48.5 and is coming off a home loss, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a home loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those game playing 23-0 to the under. The average combined score during those 23 contests was 35.7 points per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 423-424 Play On: Notre Dame +3.5 Notre Dame will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s 21-10 loss at Ohio State. This time around they’re playing at home and with a huge difference in their quality of starting quarterback Sam Hartman compared to what they had under center a season ago. During Notre Dame’s 4-0 start, Hartman completed 71.1% of his passes for 1061 yards and 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while also running for 2 scores as well. Notre Dame is 36-3 SU in their last 39 at home and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or greater. Additionally, Notre Dame is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 at home with a point-spread parameter of -9.5 to +5.5. Any non-conference College Football undefeated home underdog of between 2.5 to 5.5 that’s coming off 4 or more consecutive SU wins, and their previous game was versus a non-conference opponent, versus an opponent like Ohio State that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1993 and with an average victory margin of 9.3 points per game. Give me Notre Dame plus points. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ Washington State 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Washington State +3.0 Washington State is coming off a 64-21 win over Northern Colorado. Both teams enter this matchup with a perfect 3-0 record. Washington State has won their last 4 meetings versus Oregon State when playing at home. Any conference undefeated home team which is +3.0 to -3.0 like Washington State who’s playing after Game 3 of their season, and they allowed 33 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an undefeated opponent like Oregon State coming off a win by 7-points or more, resulted in those home teams going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2010. Those home teams were also 16-4 SU during those contests. Any College Football home underdog of +3.0 to +6.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better like Washington State, and they’re playing after Game 3 of their season, and they’re coming off 2 or more wins in a row with the last of which coming by 15 points or more, versus an opponent like Oregon State who has a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs with those point-spread parameters going 12-0 ATS and 11-1 SU since 2014. The only SU loss by those home dogs came by 1-point. Give me Washington State plus points. |
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09-23-23 | Colorado v. Oregon -21 | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Oregon -21.0 Colorado has been a nice story since Deion Sanders took over as head coach while guiding them to a terrific 3-0 start and #19 national ranking. The Buffaloes biggest weakness right now is their defense which has surrendered 35 points and 499 yards to Colorado State and 42 points and 541 yards to TCU but still managed to win both contests. On a positive note the Buffaloes defense has forced 7 turnovers in their 3 wins. The bad news, Oregon has yet to commit a turnover this season and averages 58.0 points and 587 totals yards per game. Even with their 3-0 record, Colorado is only +19.7 yards per game while the 3-0 Ducks are +301.7 yards per contest. Granted Colorado has played the much tougher schedule thus far, but their stop unit will be hard pressed to stop quarterback Bo Nix and the explosive Oregon offense. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Kansas -9.5 BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest. Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday. Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week. |
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09-23-23 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -8 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Texas A&M 12:00 PM ET Game# 407-408 Play On: Texas A&M -8.0 Auburn is 3-0 but keep in mind that their 3 wins came over California, Massachusetts, and Samford. Furthermore, they were extremely lucky in the 14-10 win at California due to the Golden Bears missing 3 field goals and Auburn accumulating just 230 yards of total offense. Furthermore, Auburn committed an alarmingly high 7 turnover through their 3 games played. Additionally, since 2021, Auburn is 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive wins and was outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game. Texas A&M is 2-1 with their only loss coming at #20 Miami 48-33. The Aggies have scored 33 points or more in each of their 3 games this season. Since 2018, Texas A&M is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.5 to 11.0 following a SU win and with an average victory margin of 16.5 points per game. Give me Texas A&M minus points. |
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09-22-23 | Boise State -6 v. San Diego State | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
Boise State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Boise State -6.0 San Diego State is 2-2 but is coming off 2 consecutive losses to #22 UCLA 35-10 and #14 Oregon State 26-9. Boise State is 1-2 but their losses came at #8 Washington and by 2 at home to a very good Central Florida team. The Aztecs have played the more difficult schedule thus far but the oddsmakers were undeterred by that factor and Boise State opened as a touchdown road favorite. I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more so than any other source. Any College Football conference away favorite of between and 3.5 to 9.0-points versus an opponent like San Diego State that’s coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 10 points or fewer on each occasion, and they have at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those conference away favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by a decisive 21.9 points per game. Give me Boise State minus the points. |
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09-22-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -119 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Mariners (Miller) @ Rangers (Dunning) 8:05 PM ET Game# 971-972 Play On: Rangers -120 Bryce Miller has made 1 start versus Texas this season and allowed 7 earned runs on 8 hits while walking 2 in just 2 1/3 innings pitched. Seattle has gone a dismal 8-20 this season when facing teams like Texas that have a +1.0 or greater run per game differential on the season. Texas is 5-1 versus Seattle this season and that includes 3-0 when playing at home. Texas is coming off a 15-5 blowout win over Boston in their previous game. The Rangers are an extremely profitable 19-6 this season immediately following a game in which they scored 10 runs or more, and they outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 2.5 runs per game. Dane Dunning has a stellar 1.19 WHIP in 9 home starts this season while averaging a healthy 6.0 innings pitched per outing. Dunning was rock-solid in his lone start versus Seattle this season while allowing just 2 earned runs over 6.0 innings of work. Give me the Rangers on the money line. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants (Harrison) @ Dodgers (Sheehan) 10:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+115) The Giants Kyle Harrison has displayed bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 7.36 ERA/1.57 WHIP and allowed an alarming 6 home runs during just 14 2/3 innings pitch. That recent home rate allowed by Harrison is especially noteworthy considering the fact he’ll be facing one of the top power hitting teams in baseball tonight. Furthermore, the Giants bullpen has been terrible over their last 7 games while posting a staff 6.14 ERA/1.81 WHIP. Lastly, the Giants have gone an abysmal 5-25 in their last 30 away games. The Dodgers are coming off a 4-2 home loss to Detroit last night that halted a 5-game win streak. However, Los Angeles is 4-0 in their last 4 immediately following a loss and outscored their opponents by a wide margin 34-7 or 6.7 runs per game. Additionally, since 2021, the Dodgers are 46-11 at home with a +2.8 run per game differential immediately following an outing in which they scored 2 runs or less. Emmet Sheehan is scheduled to start for the Dodgers, and he has a stellar 2.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP in 5 home starts this season. The Los Angeles bullpen has been lights out over their last 7 games while recording an excellent staff 1.24 ERA/0.96 WHIP. Give me the Dodgers as a run-line favorite. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
Giants @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Giants +10.0 The Giants are coming off a thrilling 31-28 win at Arizona this past Sunday in which they overcame a lete 3rd quarter 28-7 deficit. Unfortunately, their star running back Saquon Barkley was hurt on their winning drive and is listed as doubtful. It must be noted, the Giants elected to stay on the west coast which is a great idea considering the short turnaround of playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Despite the injury of Barkley, and all the other factors stacking up against the Giants, we haven’t seen hardly if any line movement since the Sunday night opening odds were released. Since Brian Daboll took over as head coach of the Giants, his team has gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS as an underdog when coming off a SU win. The 49ers will be playing in their home opener after starting the season with 2 road wins. However, since 2005, NFL teams playing their home opener in Game 3 of the season, and they’re a favorite of 4.5 or greater, resulted in those home favorite going 5-15 ATS. Since 2019, away teams playing in either Game 2 or Game 3 who are coming off a road contest in which they scored 16 points or more, and they won 4 or more games the year before, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS since 2019. Those away teams also went 18-3-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Pirates (Oviedo) @ Cubs (Hendricks) 7:40 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Over 8.5 Th wind will be blowing in from rightfield at 10 MPH at Wrigley Field tonight. That’s always something to assess when playing a total in that ballpark. Nevertheless, it’s been much worse than that on many occasions this year and this total is extremely reasonable with all things considered. The Pirates Johan Oviedo has made 4 career starts at Wrigley and with a lofty 6.52 ERA/1.91 WHIP. Oviedo also has a horrible 2.35 WHIP during his last 3 starts while walking 12 batters in only 12 1/3 innings pitched. The Pirates bullpen has a dismal 6.75 ERA over their last 7 games, and they’ve surrendered 7 homers in 34 2/3 innings pitched. Pittsburgh has played 17-5 to the over this season when facing a National League team averaging 5.0 or more runs scored per game. The Cubs are coming off yesterday’s 13-7 home loss to Pittsburgh in a game their bullpen allowed 7 earned runs in 6.0 innings. The Cubs played 9-0 to the over this year immediately following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 earned runs or more. Kyle Hendricks has an uninspiring 4.96 ERA/1.41 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs per game throughout their last 7 and with an outstanding .350 team on-base-percentage. |
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09-20-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Giants (Webb) @ Diamondbacks (Kelly) 3:40 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Under 7.5 Merrill Kelly has pitched 12-1 to the under in his 13 home starts this season with a stellar 3.04 ERA/1.04 WHIP and averaged 6.2 innings pitched per outing. Since the start of last season, Kelly has made 3 home starts against San Francisco and compiled a brilliant 1.69 ERA/0.61 WHIP and averaged 7.1 innings pitched per outing. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been very good over their last 7 games while posting a staff 2.25 ERA/1.19 WHIP. Logan Webb has been in terrific form over his last 3 starts while recording a 1.74 ERA/0.68 WHIP and averaging 6.9 innings pitched per outing. Webb has pitched 10-3 to the under during his starts in day games this season and with a 2.41 ERA/1.00 WHIP. Webb has made 3 starts versus Arizona this year and had a splendid 2.57 ERA/0.86 WHIP. |
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09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rockies (Feltner) @ Padres (Snell) 9:40 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Padres -1.5 (-135) Ryan Feltner will be making his first start since 5/13. During his last 3 starts Feltner compiled a terrible 8.71 ERA/2.42 WHIP and averaged just 3.4 innings pitched per appearance. Colorado is an abysmal 22-54 on the road this season which includes 2-16 in their last 18 away. Adding more to that road futility is the fact that Colorado is 3-33 as a road money line underdog of +200 or greater this season and they were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game. One more final note, the Rockies are 2-22 on the road this season versus teams like San Diego who are at a +0.5 or greater run per game differential. The Padres are currently riding a 5-game win streak in which they outscored their opponents by an average of 4.8 runs scored per outing and all 5 of those wins came by 2 runs or more. Throughout their previous 7 games, the Padres have averaged 7.6 runs scored per game and belted 14 home runs. The Padres are scheduled to have their ace Blake Snell take the mound this evening. During his last 4 starts Snell has recorded a brilliant 0.72 ERA and the Padres won all 4 of those by 3 runs or more. Give me the Padres as a run-line favorite. |
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09-19-23 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Orioles (Gibson) @ Astros (Brown) 8:10 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Over 9.0 Kyle Gibson has been erratic over his last 3 road starts while posting a large 8.82 ERA/1.90 WHIP and all 3 games went over the total. During his last 6 starts overall, Gibson has a lofty 1.50 WHIP and allowed 9 homers in 35 1/3 innings pitched. The Usually reliable Orioles bullpen has been shaky over their last 7 games with a 5.18 ERA, and they allowed 6 home runs in just 24 1/3 innings pitched. Baltimore has played 9-0 to the over in their last 9 away games. Hunter Brown has been awful over his last 4 home starts while collecting a 8.44 ERA/1.81 WHIP. The Houston bullpen has an uninspiring staff 5.49 ERA/1.58 WHIP and allowed 4 homers over only 19 2/3 innings of work throughout their previous 7 games. Houston has played 27-14 to the over this season versus teams like Baltimore who possess a +0.5 or greater run per game differential. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Angels (Sandoval) @ Rays (Bradley) 6:40 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Over 8.0 The Angles Patrick Sandoval has been in bad form over his last 3 starts with a 9.22 ERA/2.12 WHIP. The Angels have played 16-6 to the over this year as a money line underdog of +150 or greater and there was a combined average of 11.0 runs scored per game. The Rays Taj Bradley has seen 3 of his last 4 starts go over the total and had a sizable 6.52 ERA/1.55 WHIP during those outings. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 38.5 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show | |
Browns @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: Over 38.5 Cleveland is coming off an extremely impressive 24-3 home win over Cincinnati in their season opener. Conversely, Pittsburgh was awful in their Week 1 season opening 30-7 blowout loss at home to San Francisco. The 2 games between these division rivals both went over the total a season ago. The average total during those 2 contests was 39.0 and there was a combined 44.0 points scored per game. Any NFL team like Cleveland that’s playing in a division away game in Games 2 through 4 of the season with a total of 37.5 to 46.0, versus an opponent like Pittsburgh that allowed 33 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 19-2 (90.5%) to the over since 1991. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-18-23 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler) @ Braves (Wright) 7:20 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Phillies -109 The Braves are coming off being swept in a 3-game weekend series at Miami in which they were outscored by a combined 36-13. Wright started at Philadelphia a week ago Monday and allowed 6 earned runs in just 3.0 innings pitched. The Atlanta bullpen has struggled over their previous 7 games with a staff 10.21 ERA/1.90 WHIP. The Atlanta scheduled starting pitcher Kyle Wright has been in terrible form over his last 6 starts while posting a 7.48 ERA/1.89 WHIP. Since the start of last season, Zack Wheeler has made 4 starts at Atlanta and compiled a very good 1.95 ERA/1.80 WHIP in those outings. The Phillies bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 2.28 ERA/1.27 WHIP. Give me the Phillies on the money line. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins -2 v. Patriots | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Dolphins -2.0 Tua and the Dolphins offense was magnificent in last Sunday’s 36-34 road win over the Chargers in a game they racked up 533 yards of total offense. New England is coming off a 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game they failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. That makes New England 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per contest. Miami is 4-1 SU and 5-0 in their last 5 versus Miami. Their only SU loss occurred in last season regular season finale 23-21 at New England. That was a game that Miami’s 3rd string quarterback started due to Tua and Teddy Bridgewater being injured. Since 2018, NFL away teams playing in a Game 2 like Miami who’s coming off an away win in their season opener, resulted in those teams going 7-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 12.4 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Cowboys -8.0 Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Falcons | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
Packers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Packers +2.5 Green Bay is coming off a convincing 38-20 win in their season opener at Chicago. Atlanta won their season opener with a 24-10 home win over Carolina which was more the result of facing a rookie quarterback and lousy opponent more than anything else. As a matter of fact, Atlanta was only able to muster 221 yards of total offense and was beneficiaries of a turnover margin of +3. Additionally, their defense allowed 154 yards rushing to the Panthers. Look for Green Bay running backs Aaron Jones and Corey Dillon to have big days and that will pave the way for us to cash a winning ticket. Since 2019, NFL non-division away teams like the Packers who are +3.0 to -3.0 coming off an away game, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 4 of regular season action, resulted in those teams going 13-1-3 (93%) ATS and 15-2 SU. Give me the Packers. |
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09-16-23 | Fresno State -3 v. Arizona State | 29-0 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
Fresno State at Arizona State 10:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: Fresno State -3.0 Fresno State went on the road in their season opener and came away with an impressive 39-35 upset win over Purdue. That result certainly wasn’t a fluke when considering the Bulldogs outgained their Big 10 opponent in total yards by a wide margin of 487-363. Now they’ll be facing another Power 5 Conference team on the road this week as they’ll take on Arizona State. Sandwiched between those 2 games was last week’s home opener versus Eastern Washington in which they escaped with a 34-31 win despite being a massive 30.0-point favorite. With all considered, I’ll give them a pass for being flat in that contest. They’ll be facing an Arizona State team that’s coming off a 27-15 home loss to Oklahoma State in a game they were held to a mere 277 yards of total offense and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Sun Devils opened the season with an uninspiring 24-21 home win over Southern Utah who’s an FCS team and were nearly upset as a 34.5-point favorite. Give me Fresno State as a point-spread favorite. Since 2011, road teams like Fresno State in Game 2 through 6 that are coming off a home game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 on the point-spread, versus an opponent like Arizona State that’s coming off an underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me Fresno State as a point spread favorite. |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss OVER 63 | 23-48 | Win | 100 | 47 h 13 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss 7:30 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Over 63.0 This will be an extremely high scoring and entertaining game to watch. Both teams can put up huge offensive numbers against mediocre to below average defenses. Georgia Tech lost their season opener to Louisville 39-34 in a game there was a combined 964 yards of total offense and easily sailed over the total of 60.0. The Yellowjackets are coming off last Saturday’s 48-13 shellacking of South Carolina State in which they had 578 yards of total offense. Nonetheless, they also allowed their FCS opponent to rush for 198 yards which is extremely concerning when considering it will be facing a dynamic offense like Ole Miss this week. Ole Miss has amassed 798 passing yards and averaged 55.0 points scored per game in wins over Mercer and Tulane to start the season. The Rebels have a pair of high-quality quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart and former Oklahoma State starter Spencer Sanders. As Ralph Kramden would say in old Honeymooners episodes, “boom, zoom, and to the moon Alice”. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Florida +6.5 Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112. College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points. |
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09-16-23 | South Alabama +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: South Alabama +7.5 This certainly seems like a fishy line to me. We have a Power 5 Conference school in Oklahoma State that’s 2-0 as just a touchdown favorite at home versus a 1-1 South Alabama team from the Sun Belt Conference. The truth of the matter is South Alabama is a highly experienced team that won 10 games a season ago. They ran into a buzzsaw in their season opening loss at Tulane in a game they were derailed by committing 5 turnovers. Oklahoma State opened the season with a listless 27-13 home win versus Central Arkansas who plays at the FCS level in a game they allowed their opponent to rack up 391 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to get the outright upset in this one, but we won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me South Alabama as a point-spread underdog. |
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09-16-23 | Western Kentucky v. Ohio State OVER 65 | 10-63 | Win | 100 | 44 h 44 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Ohio State 4:00 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Over 65.0 Western Kentucky scored 41 and 52 points during its first 2 games and averaged 68 offensive plays per contest. The Hilltoppers continue to have a prolific passing game and high scoring offense just like the one we’ve been witnessing in recent seasons. Granted they’ll be stepping way up in class at Ohio State on Saturday, but we only need 2 to 3 scores from them to cash our ticket. They also allowed 529 yards rushing in those contests which included a game against Houston Baptist that plays at the FCS level. Ohio State hasn’t been overly impressive offensively in their first 2 games. Nevertheless, they’ll have a field day against a traditionally porous defense like Western Kentucky. Since 2020, Western Kentucky is allowing 34.7 points per game when facing non-conference FBS opponents and none of those teams were close to the caliber of what they’re about to face on Saturday. Furthermore, Ohio State has played 6-0 to the over since the start of last season after amassing 475 yards or more in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 75.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-16-23 | Iowa State v. Ohio +3 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Ohio +3.0 We have a Big 12 team like Iowa State as just na 3.0-point road favorite versus a Mid America Conference team. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, then most of the time it is. This is a textbook example of such in my eyes. Iowa State has been borderline anemic offensively through their first 2 games. I’ll give them a pass in last week’s 20-13 loss at Iowa in which they amassed just 290 yards of offense against a Hawkeye defense which is among the best in college football during recent seasons. However, in their season opening 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa who plays at the FCS level they had a mere 250 yards of total offense. The Cyclones will be up against an Ohio Bobcats defense which has allowed only 13.3 points and 233.3 yards per game throughout their first 3 games. Ohio star quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to the line in last week’s 17-10 upset win at FAU. Rourke was knocked out of the game during 1st half action in their season opening 20-13 loss at San Diego State. The Bobcats backup quarterback tossed 3 interceptions in that contest which ultimately cost Ohio the game. Since the start of last season Rourke has thrown 26 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions and passed for over 3500 yards. Give me Ohio plus points. |
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09-15-23 | Army +9 v. UTSA | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Army @ UTSA 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Army +9.0 UTSA was somewhat disappointing in their first 2 games. They began the season with a 17-14 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s the same Houston team that was upset at Rice last week. They followed that up with another listless performance by defeating Texas State 20-13 at home but failed to cover as a 14.0-point favorite. They outgained both those opponents by a combined 789-551 in total yards. However, they turned the ball over 4 times and failed to force a turnover in either contest. Army will be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA last season. The Black Knights dropped their season opener 17-13 at UL-Monroe in a game they were plagued by 5 turnovers in a contest they closed as an 8.5-point favorite. They bounced back with a convincing 57-0 home win last week over Delaware State who plays at the FCS level. The Black Knights offense has been run heavy for quite some time now as they run the triple option. However, they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball in the first 2 games while amassing 27 pass attempts and gained 345 yards in the air. As a matter of fact, Army had an extremely uncharacteristically high 304 yards passing in their loss to UTSA last season. Any non-conference away underdog of 3.0 to 10.0-points who’s not coming off a bye week like Army that’s playing with revenge and coming off a SU win by 4 points or more, versus an opponent like UTSA coming off a win in which they failed to cover, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0-1 ATS since 1995. They also won 10 of those 14 games straight up. Give me Army plus the points. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Vikings +6.5 The Eagles walked away with a 25-20 win at New England last Sunday in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. They also covered that contest as a 4.0-point favorite to boot. New England outgained Philadelphia in total yards by a decisive margin of 382-251. The Eagles nearly squandered an early 16-0 lead and ultimately the difference came down to a pick-6 thrown by Mac Jones in the 1st quarter. Conversely, the Vikings lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay 20-17 in a contest by all rights they should’ve have won if not for a turnover margin of -3. Minnesota outgained Tampa Bay in total yards by a wide margin of 369-242. The Vikings will be playing with revenge stemming from a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia in ironically enough Week 2 of last season. Look for the Vikings to be not so unlucky this week and Philadelphia not as fortunate as each team was in Week 1. Any NFL away underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 like Minnesota is that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 5 points or fewer, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 1.0-point or more, resulted in those away underdogs going a perfect 11-0 ATS and a compelling 10-1 SU since 1990. Give me the Vikings plus the points. |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles -130 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rays (Civale) @ Orioles (Bradish) 7:15 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Orioles -130 Baltimore suffered their 2nd straight loss yesterday when they fell to St. Louis 1-0. However, the Orioles are 6-1 this season after being held scoreless in their previous game, and 7-0 during their last 7 immediately following 2 consecutive losses. Additionally, the Orioles haven’t lost 3 straight games since 7/1 and are 12-1 on Thursdays in 2023. Kyle Bradish is 7-0 during his last 7 team starts with an impressive 2.38 ERA/0.96 WHIP. He went 6.0 innings or more in 6 of those 7 outings and allowed 2 earned runs or fewer on each occasion. Baltimore will be facing the Rays starter Aaron Civale today. Civale has been a shade shaky over his last 4 starts while posting a lofty 5.13 ERA. Give me the Orioles on the money line. |
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09-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Padres (Snell) @ Dodgers (Pepiot) 10:10 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Under 8.5 The Dodgers Ryan Pepiot has been superb in his 2 starts this season while allowing 0 earned runs, allowing 3 hits, and walking just 1 during 12.0 innings pitched. The Dodgers bullpen has been solid over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.22 ERA/0.95 WHIP. Blake Snell has amassed 6 consecutive quality starts. During his last 3, Snell has a brilliant 0.95 ERA while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per outing. During his 2 starts at Dodger Stadium since the start of last season, Snell posted a very good 2.45 ERA. It’s worth noting, the Padres have played 16-1 (94%) to the under this season in their games played on Wednesdays. |
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09-12-23 | Reds -112 v. Tigers | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Reds (Williamson) @ Tigers (Wentz) 6:40 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Reds -112 The Tigers starting pitcher Joey Wentz is 5-12 during his team starts this season with a poor 7.17 ERA/1.74 WHIP and allowed 17 homers in 75 1/3 innings of work. That’s a major concern for the Tigers since Cincinnati has belted 14 home runs and has a terrific .355 team on-base-percentage during their previous 7 games. Detroit is coming off wins in each of their last 2 games while defeating the White Sox 3-2 and 3-1. However, the Tigers are an abysmal 0-7 at home this season immediately following 2 straight games in which they allowed 3 runs or less and were outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per outing. Brandon Williamson has been excellent over his last 3 road starts while compiling a 2.04 ERA/0.96 WHIP. Williamson has also been in very good form over his last 5 starts overall with a 2.70 ERA/1.00 WHIP. The Reds didn’t play yesterday and that’s significant. Cincinnati is 7-1 on the road this season immediately following an off day. The Reds are also 9-1 in their last 10 on the road versus teams with a losing record. Give me the Reds as a money line pick. |
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09-11-23 | Bills -127 v. Jets | 16-22 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Bills @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Bills -127 The Jets are unequivocally the most hyped NFL team heading into this 2023-2024 NFL season. Much of that publicity has to do with the addition of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, at this stage of his career, Rodgers won’t even be the best quarterback on the field tonight. The Bills were in a similar situation last season when they were the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Bills are 5-1 SU versus the Jets over the previous 3 seasons and all 5 wins came by 8 points or more. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are 16-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 as a road favorite of 9.5 or less. That included 7-1 SU if they were facing a division opponent. Their only SU loss came last season at Miami 21-19 in a game they outgained the Dolphins 497-212 yards. Any NFL team like Buffalo that closed out the season before with 6 or more wins in their last 8 games versus an opponent like the Jets the finished the season before with 6 or more losses during their last 8, resulted in those teams like Buffalo going 26-4 SU (86.7%) since 2019. The average money for teams like Buffalo was -126.2 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 9.5 points per game. Give me the Bills on the money line. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | 40-0 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 0 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Giants 8:20 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Giants +3.5 Giants head coach Brian Daboll did a terrific job last season in his first year on the job. The Giants wre 9-7-1 in regular season action and made the playoffs as a NFC Wildcard team. They then went on the road and beat a 13-4 Minnesota team 31-24 before being eliminated by defending NFC champion Philadelphia the following week. Yes, the Giants lost both regular season matchups versus Dallas last season. However, both were one score games. By the way, during Daboll’s first year as head coach in New York the Giants were a terrific 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 5.5 or less and they won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Since 2011, any NFL Game 1 division home underdog of between 2.5 and 5.5 like the Giants are, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS and 9-1-1 SU. Give me the Giants plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -3 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Chargers -3.0 I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater. Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play. |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Browns +2.5 Cleveland has gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meeting versus Cincinnati and that includes winning 5 straight at home in this divisional series. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Cleveland, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Browns plus points. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +3 | 30-7 | Loss | -125 | 45 h 40 m | Show | |
49ers @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Steelers +3.0 Under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers. That includes 0-2 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or less. As a matter of fact, San Francisco dropped their season opener last season while suffering a 19-10 loss at Chicago in a game they close as a 6.5-point favorite, and versus a Bears team that finished the 2022-2023 season 3-14. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 season openers under current head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 37.0 or greater and their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Pittsburgh, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Falcons -3.5 Both teams went 7-10 SU last season and split their season series with the home team winning on both occasions. The Falcons finished the season 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home. Carolina is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta as an underdog of 3.0 or greater while losing by an average of 11.2 points per game. Any NFL division home favorite of 4.0 or less that’s playing in their opening game that won 7 games or more during the previous season, and there’s a total of 42.5 or less, versus an opponent like Atlanta that won 6 or more games the year before, resulted in those divisional home favorites going 17-1 ATS (94.4%). Those favorites also went 18-0 SU during those contests and won by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Falcons minus points. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State +6 | 22-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 31 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Washington State +6.0 Washington State is coming off a 50-24 win at Colorado State and covered easily as an 8.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo in their season opener last Saturday. The Badgers failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in a game they led just 14-10 at the half. Home teams coming off a straight up win by 49 points or less in which they scored 50 points or more like Washington State, and they’re facing a team like Wisconsin who is coming off a win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 25-1 ATS (96%). Those home teams also went 23-3 SU as well. Considering this betting angle backs the home team that’s the underdog, then the SU results take on even added significance. Give me Washington State plus points. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 17 m | Show | |
Texas @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Alabama -7.0 Alabama is coming off a 56-7 non-conference win over Middle Tennessee State. Texas is coming off a 37-10 win over Rice. Any home favorite of 6.5 or greater like Alabama that’s coming off a non-conference SU win by 49 points or less, and they scored 50 points or more in that win, versus an opponent like Texas that’s coming off a SU win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a massive 37.3 points per game. Give me Alabama minus points. |
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09-09-23 | Oregon v. Texas Tech +6.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
Oregon @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: Texas Tech +6.5 Texas Tech is coming off a 35-33 overtime loss at Wyoming in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. Oregon is coming off an 81-7 blowout win over an FCS team in Portland State. Any home underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points like Texas Tech that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or greater SU loss, and their playing in Games 2 through 9, versus an opponent like Oregon that’s coming off a win by 9 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1987. Additionally, those home underdogs won 12 of those 13 games SU. Give me Texas Tech plus points. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0 Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico. Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points. |
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09-08-23 | Illinois +3 v. Kansas | 23-34 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 36 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Kansas 7:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Illinois +3.0 The Illini are coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. Conversely Kansas toyed with Missouri State who plays at the FCS level during last week’s 48-17 win. Since 1985, any College Football non-conference away underdog of 6.5 or less like Illinois, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 3 points or fewer in which they failed to cover as a home favorite, and they won 11-games or fewer the season before, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 ATS. The away underdogs also won 11 of those 12 games straight up. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
Mariners @ Rays 6:40 PM ET Game# 963-964 Play On: Over 8.0 Seattle won the opener of this 4-game series last night 1-0. That game produced just a combined 9 hits. Despite that anemic offensive result, today’s total opened at 7.5 and quickly moved to 8.0 and for good reason. Seattle starter George Kirby has exhibited poor form over his last 4 starts while posting a 6.38 ERA/1.58 WHIP and allowed 4 home runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched. The Mariners bullpen has a lofty 5.09 ERA/1.57 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Seattle is averaging a sizable 1.38 homers per game when facing right-handed starting pitchers. The Rays starter Taj Bradley has shown bad form over his last 7 starts while compiling a 7.72 ERA/1.75 WHIP. Bradley struggled in his lone start versus Seattle this season when he allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits in just 3 1/3 innings pitched. Tampa Bay has averaged a robust 1.42 homers hit per game when facing right-handed starting pitchers this season. Additionally, Tampa has played 40-23 (63.5%) to the over this season immediately following each of their previous 2 games going under the total. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 53 m | Show | |
Lions @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Over 54.5 Kansas City has gone over the total in 8 straight season openers under current head coach Andy Reid and there was a combined average of 61.1 points scored per game. Since 2017, the Chiefs are 5-0 to the over during the first 2 games of the season and when there was a total of 53.5 or greater. The average total in those 5 contests was 54.5 and there was a combined 63.6 points scored per game. The Detroit Lions have gone over the total in all of their last 12 season openers. That run of high scoring season openers includes the first 2 of current head coach Dan Campbell’s tenure in Detroit. and there was a combined 73.5 points scored per game. Campbell has also seen his Lions play 4-2 to the over since he took over as head coach whenever the total was 50.0 or higher. Since 2009, NFL home favorites of 4.0 or greater that were playing in their serason opener and there was a total of 50.0 or higher, resulted in those games playing 8-1 to the over. The average total in those 9 contests was 53.4 and there was a combined 59.4 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-05-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Phillies (Lorenzen) @ Padres (Avila) 9:40 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Over 9.0 The Phillies Michael Lorenzen has struggled over his last 3 starts with a 7.80 ERA/2.00 WHIP and he allowed 5 home runs in 15.0 innings pitched. The Phillies have been dynamic offensively over their last 7 games while averaging 7.0 runs scored per outing and smashing 20 home runs. Philadelphia played 6-1 to the over in those previous 7 games with a combined average of 13.3 runs scored per outing. The Phillies bullpen has been shaky during that previously mentioned 7-game stretch while gathering a 4.68 ERA/1.52 WHIP as a staff. The Padres are averaging 5.0 runs scored per game and hit 10 homers during their previous 7 games. During that identical time frame, the Padres also have an impressive .292 team batting average and .358 on-base-percentage. The Padres Pedro Avila has seen all 3 of his starts this season go over the total and his 5.56 ERA/2.03 WHIP was a major contributing factor to those high scoring affairs. San Diego has seen all 5 of their games in 2023 versus Philadelphia go over the total and there was a combined average of 12.6 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-11 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants (Walker) @ Cubs (Hendricks) 7:40 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Under 10.5 The Giants will approach today’s game from a standing standpoint as a bullpen by committee. The Giants bullpen has a superb 1.64 ERA over their previous 7 games. The Giants are 0-4 and in their last 3 they scored just a combined 1 run and collected only 11 hits. As a matter of fact, they were held scoreless in each of their last 2 games. Additionally, the Giants have played 8-0 to the under this season immediately following 4 or more losses in a row and there was a combined average of only 4.8 runs scored per game. The Giants have played 43-24 (64%) to the under this season versus teams like the Cubs who have a winning record. Since 2018, Kyle Hendricks has made 6 dominating starts versus San Francisco with a 1.05 ERA/0.75 WHIP. Hendricks has exhibited excellent form over his last 3 starts while compiling a 1.50 ERA/1.06 WHIP. The Cubs have played 7-1 to the under throughout their previous 8 games. Kyle Hendricks has pitched 44-22 (67%) to the under during his career home starts versus teams like the Giants who own a winning record. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-05-23 | White Sox v. Royals -120 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
White Sox (Cease) @ Royals (Singer) 7:40 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Royals -120 Dylan Cease has been in awful form over his last 3 starts while posting a 10.80 ERA/2.20 WHIP. Cease made 1 start versus the Royals this season and allowed 7 earned runs in 5.0 innings pitched. The White Sox bullpen has a terrible 6.90 ERA/1.77 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The White Sox have averaged a paltry 2.6 runs scored per game over their last 7, went 1-6 with a huge -4.8 run per game differential, and are 37-63 this year when facing right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have been red-hot offensively over their last 4 while averaging 8.3 runs scored and 13.0 hits per game. Brady Singer is 5-0 during his last 5 home team starts while compiling an excellent 2.29 ERA/0.74 WHIP and averaging 7.1 innings pitched per start. Give me the Royals on the money line. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Duke 8:00 PM ET Game# 235-236 Play On: Duke +13.0 Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Clemson is superior athletically and has more overall team speed than Duke. They annually have one of the top recruiting classes in the country and has produced a plethora of NFL players during head coach’s Dabo Swinney’s tenure which hasn’t been the case at Duke. Okay, now let’s move on to just this game and who will cover the spread. Duke enjoyed a 9-4 season under 1st year head coach Mike Elko in 2022. The year was capped off with a convincing 30-13 win over UCF in a bowl game. The Blue Devils 4 losses all came by 8 points or fewer. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 defeats came by 3 points or less. Duke is only 13-15 in their last 28 at home but was 5-1 last season. Duke returns 18 starters from last year’s successful team including star quarterback Riley Leonard. The junior was outstanding last season while throwing 2967 yards and 20 touchdowns versus 6 picks. Leonard also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns as well. Look for Leonard to be a key cog in us getting the cover. Any College Football Game 1 home underdog of 4.0 to 16.5-points like Duke that won 8 or more regular season games the year before, and has won 9 or more of their last 28 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 2010. The underdogs also won 7 of those 10 games straight up. Giver me Duke plus the points. |
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09-03-23 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Yankees (King) @ Astros (Javier) 7:10 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Over 8.5 Houston has played 12-4 to the over in their last 16 games. The Astros are also averaging 8.3 runs scored per game, have a .333 team batting average, amassed a .399 team on-base-percentage, and hit 13 homers over their last 7 games. The Astros are coming off yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Yankees. Houston has played 14-3 to the over this season immediately following a 1-run loss and there were a combined 12.2 runs scored per game. Christian Javier gets the start today and he’s been in shaky form over his last 3 starts with a 7.24 ERA/2.12 WHIP. The Yankees have hit 17 homers over their last 7 games and that includes 5 during the first 2 games of this series. Christian Javier has allowed at least 1 home in each of his last 6 starts. Javier also allowed 2 homers in just 4 2/3 innings pitched in his only start versus the Yankees this season. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -126 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Orioles (Bradish) @ Diamondbacks (Cecconi) 8:10 PM ET Game# 977-978 Play On: Orioles -126 The D-Backs Slade Cecconi has pitched well in 4 starts. However, he’s averaged only 4.8 innings pitched per outing and that’s significant because Arizona’s bullpen has a large 6.57 ERA/1.54 WHIP over their last 7 games. Arizona is 1-11 this season after scoring 4 runs or fewer in each of their previous 4 games. Baltimore has gone an extremely profitable 12-1 this season as a road favorite of -125 or greater. Kyle Bradish has been in superb form over his last 3 starts with a 2.00 ERA/0.89 WHIP and just shy of an 8:1 strikeout to walk ration during 18.0 innings pitched. The Orioles bullpen has a stellar 3.00 ERA/1.10 WHIP and allowed 0 home runs in 21.0 innings pitched during their previous 7 games. Finally, Baltimore is an outstanding 41-24 on the road in 2023. Give me the Orioles on the money line. |
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09-02-23 | South Alabama +6.5 v. Tulane | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET Game# 219-220 Play On: South Alabama +6.5 Soth Alabama finished the 2022 regular season with an impressive 10-2 record. Their lone defeats came by just a combined 5 points. The Jaguars were 5-1 SU on the road with their lone loss coming a at UCLA 32-31 in a contest they closed as a 15.5-point underdog. They return 18 starters from that team. Tulane had a storybook 12-2 season and AAC Championship. Additionally, that magical season concluded with a 45-28 win over UCF in their conference championship game, and a stunning New Year’s Day Bowl thrilling win over traditional college football powerhouse USC. Yet here we are 8 months later, and they’re just a touchdown favorite in their season opener at home versus a Sun Belt Conference team. They’re begging you to lay the points at home with the Green Wave. Tulane lost some very key personnel on both sides of the ball that heavily contributed to an extremely successful season. I going with a contrarian approach in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if the underdog pulls off an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and take South Alabama plus points. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina -135 v. South Carolina | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show | |
North Carolina vs. South Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: North Carolina -135 (Money Line) North Carolina is coming off a 9-4 season and 18 returning starters in 2023. The Tar Heels are #3 nationally in the returning production rank category. That veteran cast is highlighted by star quarterback Drake Maye who’s well beyond read deal status at this point and barring a major injury will be playing on Sundays in the not-too-distant future. This game will be played in Charlotte at the home of the Carolina Panthers. It’s considered a neutral field game despite being in the Tar Heels home state. Any college football neutral field favorite playing in a season opener that won 9 or more games the year before, resulted in those favorites going 25-3 SU (89.3%) since 2012. Give me North Carolina on the money line. |
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09-02-23 | Mariners -134 v. Mets | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Mariners (Castillo) @ Mets (Peterson) 7:10 PM ET Game# 975-976 Play On: Mariners -134 The Mets are an abysmal 13-38 this season as a money line underdog of +100 to +150 just like they currently are. David Peters has an uninspiring 1.58 WHIP over his last 4 starts. Couple that with a Mets bullpen 1.56 WHIP over their last 7 and their relivers 19 walks in 24 1/3 innings pitched and it’s a recipe for losing. Furthermore, the Mets are averaging a paltry 2.7 runs scored per game over their last 7 outings. Despite coming off last night’s loss, Seattle is on impressive winning runs of 13-3 the last 16 overall, 26-8 the last 34 overall, and 16-4 in their previous 20 away games. The veteran right-hander Luis Castillo has been in very good form over his last 4 starts while posting a 2.00 ERA/0.78 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has a terrific 2.91 ERA/1.11 WHIP over their last 7 games. Give me the Mariners on the money line. |
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09-02-23 | UTSA -120 v. Houston | 14-17 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 13 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Houston 7:00 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: UTSA -120 (Money Line Pick) It’s time to take the UTSA Roadrunners more seriously. They’ve had a combined 23-5 record over the last 2 years and won a pair of Conference championships. However, 1 of those 5 losses came in last year’s season opener when they fell to 33-31 at home versus Houston. As if they need any more motivation playing a Power 5 Conference team. Apparently the oddsmakers are taking them more seriously than most. A Group of 5 team like UTSA taking on a Big 12 opponent in their home opener, and it’s visitors that are favorite. By, the way, keep an eye on UTSA quarterback Frank Harris. This guy is the real deal and will be a major reason why we’re on the winning side in this game. Give me UTSA on the money line. |
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09-02-23 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Cubs (Assad) @ Reds (Abbott) 6:40 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Under 9.5 Javier Assad has a brilliant 1.86 ERA/0.88 WHIP in 3 road starts this season. The Cubs have gone under in 5 straight and there only a combined average of 5.4 runs scored per game. The Reds have gone under in 6 straight with a combined average of 6.2 runs scored per game. Andrew Abbott has seen all 7 of his home starts go under the total while compiling a 2.84 ERA/0.95 WHIP. Both bullpens have been solid of late. The slated home plate umpire is Laz Diaz and games have played 12-5 to the under this season when he’s behind the plate. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Braves (Strider) @ Dodgers (Lynn) 10:10 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Under 8.5 Spencer Strider has been in excellent form over his last 3 starts while recording an 0.43 ERA/0.62 WHIP and averaging 7.0 innings pitched per outing. Strider made 1 start this year and 1 last versus the Dodgers with a 1.50 ERA/1.08 WHIP while striking out 18 in 12.0 innings pitched. The Atlanta bullpen has been very good over their previous 7 games while posting a staff 2.79 ERA/1.04 WHIP. The Braves have allowed a mere 2.7 runs scored per game over the last 7 outings. Lance Lynn has gone 5-0 in his last 5 team starts with an impressive 2.03 ERA/1.06 WHIP and averaged a healthy 6.2 innings pitched per appearance. The Dodgers bullpen has been stellar during their previous 7 games while compiling a staff 2.25 ERA/1.06 WHIP and had just shy of a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -6 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida @ Utah 8:00 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Utah -6.0 Utah was upset in their season opener a year ago by Florida in a game that went into the very late stages of the 4th quarter before a winner was finally decided. However, all you need to do is look at the Florida Gators regular season over/under win total of 5.5. When doing so, it tells you what the sharpest minds in sports betting, which are oddsmakers, think of Florida’s chances of even reaching a in a bowl game this year, let alone beating a Top 10 caliber team in their season opener. Utah has gone 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. Furthermore, since 10/17/2015, the Utes are a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite while playing with revenge. The average line during those 11 situations was 11.5 and the Utes outscored their opponents by an average of 18.6 points per game. If the worst-case scenario is Rising being ruled out at gametime, I still like the Utes even at this current number. Otherwise, if Rising is available, this line will move much closer or match the opening number of 9.5. Either way, give me Utah minus points. |
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08-30-23 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Brewers (Woodruff) @ Cubs (Hendricks) 2:20 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Under 7.0 Brandon Woodruff is 5-1 in his team starts this season with a superb 2.65 ERA/0.88 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen has a terrific 2.10 ERA/1.01 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Milwaukee has played 19-7 to the under on the road this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Brewers are also 9-1 to the under on the road this season when facing National League starting pitchers like Kyle Hendricks who have a WHIP of 1.25 or better. The Cubs have now seen 4 of their 5 games at Wrigley Field versus Milwaukee go under the total. Kyle Hendricks has exhibited good form over his last 3 starts while recording a 3.00 ERA/1.22 WHIP and averaged 6.0 innings pitched per outing. The Chicago bullpen has a very good 2.49 ERA/0.97 WHIP as a staff during their previous 7 games. Both team’s pitching staffs will benefit today from wins of 18 MPH that are blowing in. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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08-29-23 | Reds +148 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Reds (Williamson) @ Giants (Cobb) 9:45 PM ET Game#957-958 Play On: Reds +148 The Giants Alex Cobb has been in poor form over his last 4 starts with a 7.53 ERA/1.67 WHIP. He’s made 1 start versus the Reds this season and it wasn’t a good one. During that appearance, Cobb allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits while walking 4 in just 4 1/3 innings pitched. The Giants bullpen has a lofty staff 5.80 ERA and allowed 8 homers during their previous 7 games. The Reds are coming off 2 straight losses including a 4-1 defeat last night at San Francisco. However, hasn’t lost 3 in a row since 8/6 and is 4-0 in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses. The reds Brandon Williams has been in very good form over his last 4 starts while recording a 2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP and averaging 6.0 innings pitched per outing. Cincinnati is a respectable 37-31 on the road this season and made $100 per game bettors a net profit of $1,640. Give me the Reds as a money line underdog. |
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08-29-23 | Rays v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rays (Civale) @ Marlins (Alcantara) 6:40 PM ET Game# 971-972 Play On: Under 7.5 Aaron Civale of the Rays has pitched brilliantly during 9 road starts this season while recording a 1.86 ERA/1.12 WHIP. As a matter of fact, Civale has posted an impressive 2.59 ERA/1.10 WHIP during 17 starts overall this season. The Rays bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 3.64 ERA/1.05 WHIP. Sandy Alcantara has been dominant over his last 3 home starts with a 0.76 ERA/0.72 WHIP while averaging 7.9 innings pitched per start. Speaking of being dominant, Alcantara was in his lone start versus Tampa Bay this year when he pitched a complete game and allowed only 1 earned run. The Marlins have been anemic offensively of late. Throughout their last 8 outings they’ve averaged a mere 1.9 runs scored per game and tallied 2 runs or fewer on 6 of those occasions. Miami’s bullpen pitched 8.0 innings during a 2-1 win over Washington in their previous game. The Marlins have played 7-0 to the under this season following a game in which their bullpen pitched 6.0 innings or more, and there was a combined average of only 4.0 runs scored per outing. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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08-28-23 | Brewers +110 v. Cubs | 6-2 | Win | 110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Brewers (Miley) @ Cubs (Taillon) 8:05 PM ET Game# 903-904 Play On: Brewers +110 Jameson Taillon has a horrible 8.59 ERA over his last 3 starts while averaging only 4.9 innings pitched per outing. Taillon is 4-8 during his team starts at home this season with a 6.00 ERA. The Cubs veteran right-hander has made 1 start this year and 1 last season versus Milwaukee with a terrible 7.00 ERA/1.56 WHIP. The Brewers have won 8 straight and averaged 7.3 runs scored per game during that win streak. Wade Miley has exhibited good form over his last 5 starts with a 2.77 ERA/1.23 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen has been outstanding during their current win streak. Milwaukee is 17-11 this season as a money line road underdog of +100 to +150 and $100 per game bettors made a net profit of $960. The Brewers are only 18-20 versus lefty starting pitchers but an extremely profitable 55-37 versus right-handers in 2023. Give me the Brewers as a money line underdog. |
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08-28-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
White Sox (Kopech) @ Orioles (Rodriguez) 7:05 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Orioles -1.5 (-117) Michael Kopech has an awful 7.16 ERA/1.84 WHIP over his last 6 starts. Kopech has allowed an alarmingly high 28 homers during 120.0 innings pitched this season. That’s genuine cause for concern considering he’ll be facing an Orioles team which has belted 12 home runs during their previous 7 games. The White Sox are coming off home wins over the lowly Oakland A’s on Saturday and Sunday. However, they haven’t put together a 3-game win streak since 8/6 and did so just once since 6/8. The White Sox bullpen has an unappealing 5.90 ERA over their previous 7 games and that includes allowing 6 homers in 29.0 innings pitched. After a rough start to the season, Baltimore’s young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is coming into his own as of late. Rodriguez has a stellar 2.61 ERA/1.00 WHIP over his last 5 starts and averaged a healthy 6.2 innings pitched per outing. The Orioles bullpen has been excellent over their last 7 games with a staff 2.21 ERA/0.64 WHIP and a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Baltimore is 25-6 this season as a money line favorite of -150 or greater and they averaged 6.0 runs scored per game. Give me the Orioles as a run-line favorite. |
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08-28-23 | Angels v. Phillies -128 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Angels (Giolito) @ Phillies (Walker) 6:40 PM ET Game# 921-922 Play On: Phillies -128 Lucas Giolito is 4-10 during his away team starts this season with a lofty 6.14 ERA/1.62 WHIP and allowed a noteworthy 18 homers in just 73 1/3 innings pitched. That shapes up to be problematic for Giolito considering he’ll be facing a Phillies team that’s averaged 6.4 runs scored per game, hit .309 as a team, recorded a team on-base-percentage of .366, and smacked 15 homers throughout their previous 7 outings. Making matters even worse, the Angels bullpen has a dismal 6.62 ERA/1.79 WHIP as a staff over their previous 7 games while also allowing an eye-catching 7 homers in 34.0 innings of work. Since the start of last season, Tijuan Walkers is 17-3 during his home team starts in games such as this one that have a total of 9.0 or 9.5. Walker is 10-3 in his home team starts this season with a very good 3.26 ERA/1.19 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has performed well over their previous 7 games with a staff 2.45 ERA/1.09 WHIP. Give me the Phillies as a money line favorite. |
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08-27-23 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Padres (Wacha) @ Brewers (Houser) 2:10 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Under 9.0 Michael Wacha has been in terrific form over his last 6 starts while recording a 1.06 ERA/0.94 WHIP. Wacha has also been superb in form day game starts this season with a 1.12 ERA/0.88 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has been very good over the past week. However, their offense has been silent and they were hitting just .182 as a team and averaged 3.1 runs scored per outing over their last 7 games heading into the weekend. The Brewers Adrian Houser is a perfect 6-0 during his team starts in day games with a shiny 3.03 ERA/1.06 WHIP. Houser has made 3 home starts versus the Padres since 2019 and posted a brilliant 1.80 ERA/0.87 WHIP in those appearances. The Milwaukee bullpen has been extremely good of late. The Brewers have played 26-11 to the under this year whenever the total was 9.0 or 9.5. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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08-26-23 | Raiders -4.5 v. Cowboys | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 38 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Cowboys 8;00 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Raiders -4.5 Dallas lost and failed to cover in their first 2 preseason games. That makes the Cowboys an abysmal 9-25 SU and 8-23-3 ATS in their last 34 preseason games. The Raiders are coming off impressive wins of 34-7 at home versus San Francisco and 34-17 at the Los Angeles Rams. That now makes current head coach Josh McDaniels 6-0 SU&ATS in preseason games with the Raiders and with an average victory margin of 14.2 points per game. Any NFL preseason away favorite like Las Vegas that’s facing an opponent like Dallas who’s playing their 3rd preseason game and lost their first 2, resulted in those away favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1999. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 13.6 points per game. Give the Raiders minus points. |
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08-26-23 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Rangers (Scherzer) @ Twins (Ryan) 7:15 PM ET Game# 923-924 Play On: Over 7.5 There’s something going on with Twins starter Joe Ryan who has been awful in recent starts. During his previous 5 starts, Ryan has compiled a sizable 9.00 ERA/1.83 WHIP and allowed an alarming 11 home runs in just 23.0 innings pitched. The Twins bullpen has been shaky over their previous 7 games while recording a staff 4.98 ERA/1.85 WHIP and they walked 17 batters in 21 2/3 innings pitched. Throughout their previous 7 games, Minnesota is averaging 5.7 runs scored per game and belted 13 homers. Some of you may be scratching your head when seeing this pick, and consequently feeling uncomfortable betting a game over with Max Scherzer as one of the starting pitchers. However, as much as Scherzer has been dominant in his home starts this season that’s not been the case on the road. Scherzer has pitched 8-4-1 over on the road this season with a lofty 4.79 ERA. The most concerning part of Scherzer’s road starts is that he’s allowed 20 homers in 73.3 innings pitched. Couple that with the fact that he’ll be facing a Twins team which averages 1.48 homers hit per game at home and identically 1.48 hit per outing during 97 games versus right-handed starting pitchers, and he points toward a perfect storm. Furthermore, the Rangers bullpen has been brutal over the last 7 games while posting a 8.69 ERA/1.66 WHIP as a staff and they gave up 7 homers in 29.0 innings. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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08-26-23 | Ohio +2.5 v. San Diego State | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Ohio @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Ohio +2.5 This line jumped right off the page at me when it first came out. Ohio as a short road favorite versus a Mountain West football program with a fine winning tradition. However, upon further review, this is an Ohio team that went 10-4 last season, reached the MAC Championship Game, and beat another Mountain West Conference team in a bowl game by way of a 30-27 win over Wyoming. They finished the season on a 8-1 winning run. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year a season ago that was cut short by an ACL injury in Game 11 at Ball State. However, Rourke still threw for 3256 yards with 25 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions. He also ran for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. Since 9/23/17, Ohio has gone 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less and won by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Ohio plus points. |
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08-26-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | 15-19 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Seahawks +3.0 Seattle is coming home wins in their first 2 preseason games by scores of 24-13 over Minnesota and 22-14 versus Dallas. Any NFL Preseason underdog of 5.0 or less like Seattle that’s coming off back-to-back home wins and is undefeated, and they won their previous game by 4 points or more, resulted in those underdogs going 16-3 ATS (84.2%) since 1997 while also winning 14 of those 19 contests straight up. Furthermore, if those teams were an underdog of between 3.0 and 5.0, they improve to 13-0 ATS and 11-2 SU. Give me the Seahawks plus points. |
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08-25-23 | Padres v. Brewers -110 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Padres (Darvish) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 8:10 PM ET Game# 957958 Play On: Brewers -110 The Padres are coming off a 4-0 home win over Miami. San Diego is 1-6 during in their last 7 following a win in their previous game. The Padres have averaged a mere 2.9 runs scored per game over their last 7 outings with an anemic .176 team batting average. Yu Darvish is 0-2 in his last 2 starts with a 6.00 ERA/1.58 WHIP. Milwaukee enters today riding a 5-game win streak and they scored 6 runs or more in all those games. Brandon Woodruff is 4-1 in his team starts this season with a 2.89 ERA/0.86 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen has a very good 2.35 ERA/1.13 WHIP over their last 7 games. Give me the Brewers on the money line. |
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08-24-23 | Steelers -4.5 v. Falcons | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Steelers 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Pittsburgh -4.5 Pittsburgh won and covered their first 2 preseason games 27-17 at Tampa Bay and 27-15 at home over Buffalo. Since 2017, and all under current head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS during preseason action. Conversely, during that identical time frame, Atlanta has gone 4-16-1 SU and 4-17 ATS, and that includes 1-8-1 SU and 1-10 ATS when playing at home. Atlanta is coming off last week’s 13-13 tie versus Cincinnati in a game they failed to cover as a 6.0-point home favorite. When it comes to preseason action, it would be difficult to make a case against the Steelers quarterback rotation of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubsiky, and Mason Rudolph not being the best in the NFL. Any NFL preseason road favorite like Pittsburgh coming off back-to-back SU&ATS wins, and theyre facing an opponent like Atlanta who failed to cover their previous game by 4.0-points or more, resulted in those road favorites going a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those exact situations came by a substantial 16.7 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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08-23-23 | Red Sox v. Astros -105 | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Sale) @ Astros (Urquidy) 8:10 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Houston -105 Since 2016, Chris Sale is 1-4 during his team starts at Houston with a sizable 6.07 ERA and he allowed 6 home runs in 26 2/3 innings pitched. The Red Sox bullpen has a terrible 6.75 ERA/1.65 WHIP as a staff over their previous 7 games, and they allowed an eye-popping 8 homers in just 26 2/3 innings of work. Boston will be playing their 9th of a 10-game in 10-day road trip. The Red Sox are a dismal 6-18 this season following 5 or more away games in a row. Jose Urquidy as struggled mightily at times this season. However, he’s 2-0 in his career home starts versus Boston with a 0.69 ERA/0.46 WHIP and both outings took place since 2021. The Astros bullpen has been solid over their last 7 games with a staff 2.83 ERA/1.12 WHIP and a 34:7 strikeout to walk ratio. The Astros have averaged 6.1 runs scored per game, compiled a .285 team batting average, and smacked 13 homers over their previous 7 games. Additionally, since the start of last season, Houston is 67-27 when facing lefthanded starting pitchers like Chris Sale is, and that included 24-14 in 2023. Give me the Astros on the money line. |
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08-22-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -118 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rangers (Gray) @ Diamondbacks (Gallen) 9:40 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Diamondbacks -118 The 1st place Texas Rangers hit a wall of late and lost 5 in a row. During this current losing streak, they’ve averaged a mere 2.6 runs scored per game and 5.6 hits per game. The Rangers bullpen has compiled a lousy staff 6.66 ERA over their last 7 games. Arizona has gone 6-1 in their last 7 and 8-2 in their last 10 which has catapulted them back into the National League Wild Card race. Zac Gallen has gone 10-2 during his home team starts this season with an excellent 1.82 ERA/0.90 WHIP while averaging 6.6 inning pitched per outing. Give me the Diamondbacks on the money line. |
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08-22-23 | Reds +135 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 135 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Reds (Ashcraft) @ Angels (Giolito) 9:38 PM ET Game# 967-968 Play On: Reds +135 The Angels pitching has been horrific of late. The Halos have allowed 7 runs or more in their last 3 and 6 of the previous 7 games. Lucas Giolito is the slated starting pitcher for the Angels, and he’s been in bad form over his last 3 starts while recording a 9.19 ERA/1.66 WHIP. The Angels bullpen has a miserable 8.16 ERA/1.92 WHIP over their previous 7 games. Despite being 3-4 in their last 7, the Angels are a -4.2 run per game differential over that course of time. Graham Ashcraft of the Reds has exhibited very good form over his last 4 starts with a 2.25 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The Reds bullpen has an excellent staff 1.42 ERA/0.79 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Cincinnati is 33-21 this season versus teams like the Angels who have a losing record. Give me the Reds on the money line as my MLB Underdog Game of the Month. |
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08-22-23 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Houck) @ Astros (Verlander) 8:10 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Over 8.5 The Red Sox have hit home runs and averaged 5.7 runs scored per game over their last 7 outings. Boston has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 and there was a combined average of 12.2 runs scored per game. Boston’s Tanner Houck has an uninspiring 5.26 ERA over his last 4 starts while also allowing 4 homers in 19.0 innings pitched. The Red Sox bullpen has a staff 6.35 ERA in their last 7 games and allowed an alarmingly high 8 homers in 28 1/3 innings of work. Boston has played 34-18 to the over this season when facing American League teams like Houston who allow 4.4 runs or less per game. Justin Verland hasn’t been sharp in his last 2 starts while posting a 5.73 ERA/1.55 WHIP. The Astros have belted 12 homers over their previous 7 games. Houston has played 5-1 to the over in their last 6 and that includes 9-4 home win versus Boston. Last night’s game could have been much higher scoring than it already was but for the fact that the teams had a combined 24 men left on base. Give this game to go over the total. |
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08-22-23 | Mariners v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Mariners (Woo) @ White Sox (Clevinger) 8:10 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Over 8.5 Mike Clevinger has pitched very well for the White Sox this season. However, he made 2 starts versus the Mariners last season and recorded a large 8.18 ERA/1.55 WHIP and allowed 4 homers in 11.0 innings pitched. Chicago has gone over the total in 4 straight and with a combined average of 14.0 runs scored per game. During their current 7-game win streak, Seattle has averaged 7.9 runs scored per game, hit a sizzling hot .337 as a team, and smacked 17 homers. The Mariners have also cracked 90 homers in 63 road games in 2023 and that equated to an average of 1.43 home runs hit per game. Seattle has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 with a combined average of 12.0 runs scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |