Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -8.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Nuggets 9:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -8.5 Considering the Rockets have shown to be a much-improved team in the early going of this season, this appears as a very heavy line which makes it alluring to take the underdog. Nonetheless, I just can’t ignore the home/away dichotomies in this matchup. Houton is an outstanding 9-1 SU at home but an abysmal 0-8 SU on the road. On the other hand, Denver is an uninspiring 5-8 SU on the road but an unbeaten 9-0 SU at home where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Nuggets are coming off 2 losses in a row with both coming on the road versus the Kings and Clippers. However, the defending world champions haven’t lost 3 straight games all season and are 2-0 SU&ATS immediately following back-to-back losses. Give me the Nuggets minus points. |
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12-08-23 | Cavs -130 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Heat 8:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Cavaliers -130 (ML) The Cavaliers are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and 4-1 SU&ATS during the previous 5 overall. As a matter of fact, Cleveland is just 6-6 SU at home thus far but a more than respectable 6-3 SU on the road. The Cavs played at Miami on 11/22 and were blown out 129-96. However, here we are a little over 2 weeks later and they come up as a short favorite at Miami again. The oddsmakers are speaking to us loud and clear. Miami is coming off a win at Toronto but they’re still 2-4 SU in their last 6 and 1-3 SU during the previous 4 games following a win. Give me the Cavaliers as a money line favorite. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Thunder | 136-138 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Warriors +3.0 These teams have already met 3 times this season and the visitors are unscathed 3-0 during those matchups. The Warriors are certainly off to a disappointing start to the season. Nevertheless, they’re a money-making 7-3 ATS on the road. The upstart Thunder are just 2-3 in their last 5 games. During that stretch, they’re allowing opponents to attempt 33 free throw attempts per games and make an alarmingly high 38% of their 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, throughout their last 5 contests Golden State is averaging 28 free throws per contest while making a stellar 81% of those attempts. During that identical 5-game span, the Warriors have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. During their first 3 meetings against Oklahoma City, Golden State averaged an extremely high 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which equates to a better than average amount of multiple offensive possessions. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 230.5 | 89-133 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Pelicans vs. Lakers 9:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 230.5 This game will be played at a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It will be the first meeting of the season between these Western Conference teams. They met 4 times last season, and each contest went over the total with a combined average of 236.8 points scored per game. The Lakers are coming off Tuesday night’s 106-103 home win over Phoenix. Since the start of last season, the Lakers have played 9-1 to the over in games not played at home following a contest in which they allowed 105 points or fewer, and there was a combined average of 243.8 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 5-1 to the over this season in games not played at home when the total was 228.0 or greater. That includes 5-0 the last 5 in that exact scenario and with a combined 242.0 points scored per game. Conversely, New Orleans has averaged a healthy 120.0 points scored per game and shot 51.4% from the field during their previous 5 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -5.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Steelers -5.5 The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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12-07-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State OVER 153 | 65-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Iowa State 7:30 PM ET Game# 875-876 Play On: Over 153.0 The pace/tempo of this game will be conducive to a high scoring affair. Iowa is #27 nationally in adjusted offensive tempo. The Hawkeyes also average only 15.0 seconds per offensive possession which ranks 14th nationally. Iowa State is in the top 25% in college basketball when it comes to both categories previously mentioned. Iowa is 14th nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 118.4 points scored per 100 possessions while Iowa State is in the upper 20% of college basketball at 111.2. Each team is adept at getting to the free throw line with Iowa State averaging 25 attempts per game and Iowa 24. Iowa State has scored 85 or more points in each of their 4 home games this season. Iowa has scored 84 points or more in 6 of their 8 games. This has all the makings of a game to be played in the 80’s. Give me over the total. |
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12-05-23 | San Diego State v. Grand Canyon OVER 142 | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon 9:00 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Over 142.0 Both teams in this matchup having been stellar in terms of offensive point production despite being a tad better than average when it comes to shooting percentage. Grand Canyon averages 80.3 points scored per game and San Diego State is at 77.8 per contest. Each team has been adept at getting to the charity stripe with Grand Canyon averaging 30 free throw attempts per contest which ranks #2 nationally and San Diego State 24 per game. San Diego State has played 3-0 to the over this season when the total has been between 140.0 to 147.5 and there was a combined average of 168.0 points scored per game. Grand Canyon has played 4-0 to the over this season when there was a total of between 140.0 to 145.5 and there was a combined average of 153.3 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Furman @ Arkansas 8:00 PM ET Game# 863-864 Play On: Over 158.5 Furman has played 4-0 to the over this season when the total was 157.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 169.0 points scored per game. Furman prefers an up tempo style of basketball and the statistics provided by KenPom fully backs that statement. Arkansas has played 5-0 to the over at home this season. The Razorbacks contests have averaged a combined 53 free throws per outing and that’s a huge number by college basketball standards, and equates to many points being scored with the clock stopped. Arkansas has also allowed 75 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers OVER 42.5 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Packers 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Over 42.5 For starters, the weather in Green Bay shouldn’t be a factor with game time temperatures predicted to be about 34 degrees with light wins of 5 to 7 MPH and a very low probability of any precipitation. The Packers offense has shown dramatic signs of improvement over their last 3 contests while averaging 23.7 points scored and 391.0 yards gained per game. During that same 3-game stretch, the Packers defense allowed a worrisome 165.0 yards per outing. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively on Sunday night which sets up the best play action passer in the NFL Patrick Mahome for a huge day. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over on the road when the total was between 42.0 to 49.0 and there was a combined average of 55.4 points scored per game. Additionally, the Chies went over the number in both games this season when the total was 43.0 or less. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams OVER 40.5 | 19-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Browns @ Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Over 40.5 The Browns have played 5-0-1 to the under at home this season but 5-0 to the over on the road. Those 5 road contests had a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Statistically the Browns are extremely good defensively. But those numbers are askew when comparing their home and away splits. The same can be said for their offense production on the road which has been far better than compared to that on the road. The Rams offense is coming off a confidence building performance during last Sunday’s 37-14 blowout win at Arizona. They massed 457 yards of total offense in that contest with a very balanced attach which sw them gain 228 rushing and 229 passing. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Buccaneers -3.5 Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints +4 | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Saints +4.0 The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea. Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. |
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12-03-23 | Falcons -130 v. Jets | 13-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Atlanta -130 (ML) The Jets have gone an abysmal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 and were outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per game. New York has been anemic offensively over their previous 5 games while scoring 13 points or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 23 points or more in each of their last 4 games and amassed 396 yards or more of total offense in 4 of the previous 7 contests. Atlanta is coming off a 24-15 division win as a 1.0-point home underdog versus New Orleans. NFL non-conference money line home favorites coming off a SU underdog win versus a division opponent resulted in those money line favorites going 31-3 (91.2%). Those money line favorites outscored those 34 opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me the Falcons as a money line favorite. |
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12-03-23 | Colts -117 v. Titans | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Colts -117 (ML) Tennessee is coming off last week’s 17-10 home win over a 1-10 Carolina Panthers team. The bad news is that the Titans are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Titans offense has struggled mightily this season while scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last 4, 6 of the previous 7, and 8 of 11 games this season. The Colts are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and allowed just 13.0 points and 304.3 yards per contest. Indianapolis has also gone 4-1 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and away games. It’s also worth noting, the Colts Gardner Minshew is 5-0 SU&ATS in his career team starts as a road favorite with his teams winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite. |
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12-03-23 | Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49.5 | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Over 49.5 Even the casual NFL fan is aware of how explosive the Miami Dolphins can be. This appears to be a prime spot for them to shine against a porous Washington defense which has allowed 29 points sor more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Commanders offense has averaged an impressive 407.8 yards gained per game over their previous 5 contests. The only reason they scored just an average of 21.2 points per contest during that stretch is they committed 11 turnovers. They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that allowed 27.3 points per game in contests played on the road or at a neutral site. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-02-23 | Nuggets v. Kings -4.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Kings -4.5 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | 26-0 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Iowa +22.5 Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Georgia v. Alabama +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Alabama +5.5 Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -14.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Texas -14.5 Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points. Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Fresno State v. BYU -14.5 | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State vs. BYU 9:00 PM ET Game# 885-886 Play On: BYU -14.5 This game won’t be played in Provo but it will take place in Salt Lake City which by all intents and purposes Is a BYU home game. BYU (6-0) is currently ranked #19 in the AP Poll. Nevertheless, I trust the KenPom rankings much more and they have the Cougars at #9. BYU is is extremely good on both ends of the floor. They’re 28th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage while Fresno State is #338 at defending the 3-point shot. Fresno is an uninspiring 2-3 versus Division 1 teams thus far with their only wins coming over Morgan State and New Mexico State who currently have a combined 1-12 record versus Division 1 competition. Give me BYU minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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12-01-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius -3.5 | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac @ Canisius 7:00 PM ET Game# 865-866 Play On: Canisius -3.5 Quinnipiac is 5-1 but their wins have come over Coast Guard, Army, Stonehill, Central Connecticut State, and Albany. Their 4 Division 1 wins came over teams that currently have a combined 7-21 (.250) record. Conversely, Canisius owns quality wins over St. Bonaventure (4-2) and Western Kentucky (5-3). They also gave Syracuse (5-2) all they can handle in a 12-point road loss. Give me Canisius minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Liberty -4 v. College of Charleston | 67-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Charleston 6:00 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: Liberty -4.0 Liberty suffered their first loss of the season last night to #13 FAU. However, keep in mind, that was an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from a team that reached the Final 4 this past April. Additionally, that game was part of the Field of 68 Tournament which is being held on the home floor of FAU. The Flames own a quality win over a Top 100 team in Wichita State. These teams faced one common opponent and that was Vermont. Liberty defeated the Catamounts 71-61 while Charleston lost 77-69 on a neutral floor. Charleston is a mediocre 3-3 to start the season with 1 of those wins coming against a team that currently has a winning record. Libert has played the tougher schedule and is batter both offensively and defensively than Charleston. This is also an experienced Liberty team that went 27-9 a season ago and advanced to the 2nd Round of the NIT where they lost at Wisconsin 75-71 after advancing with a home win over Villanova. Give me Liberty minus points. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 47 | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Over 47.00 Dallas is 5-0 at home and averaging a massive 41.0 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season. Dallas has played 8-1 to the over at home when the total was between 42.5 to 49.0 with a combined average of 61.3 points scored per game. The Cowboys have scored 33 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Dallas has played 6-0 to the over throughout the past 3 season following 2 consecutive contests in which they scored 25 points or more and there was a combined average of 60.7 points scored per occurrence. Any NFL away team like Seattle with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that has a winning record, versus an opponent like Dallas with a win percentage of between .600 to .750 that’s coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those games playing 13-1 to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-30-23 | Pacers +2.5 v. Heat | 132-142 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Pacers +2.5 Indiana is coming off a stunning 114-110 home loss to Portland in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. However, the Pacers have only dropped back-to-back games once this season and the last time it occurred was way back on 11/1. As a matter of fact, Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Pacers have been a dynamic offensive team thus far and have averaged 127.6 points scored per game while also shooting a red-hot 50.3% from the field. Conversely, Miami is 0-3 SU in their last 3 and during those contests they allowed opponents to shoot 50.6%. Five me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-30-23 | Liberty v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Liberty @ FAU 6:00 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: FAU -7.5 Liberty comes into this matchup with a 6-0 record. However, they’ve faced a much easier schedule than FAU and has posted no victories over major conference teams. This will also be the Flames first true road game of the season. #13 FAU (6-1) sustained a massive upset loss earlier this season when they fell to Bryant as a 23.5-point home favorite. However, since that stunning defeat, the Owls have gone 3-0 with wins over noteworthy opponents the likes of Butler, Texas A7M. and Virginia Tech. During those 3 victories they averaged an impressive 90.3 points scored per game and shot a blistering hot 54.3% from the field. Keep in mind, this is an FAU team which made it to the Final 4 a season ago and all 5 of last year’s starters returned for another run at a national championship. Give me FAU minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5 | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Colorado State 9:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Colorado State -2.5 Colorado State is a hidden gem at 6-0 and ranked #20. The Rams are coming off an extremely impressive 69-48 upset win over #15 Creighton as a 9.0-point underdog on a neutral floor. Colorado State is averaging 84.9 points scored per game while shooting a blistering hot 53.9% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the 3-point line. The Rams will be out for big time revenge stemming from a 93-65 blowout loss at Colorado last season. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Bradley @ Murray State 8:00 PM ET Game# 697-698 Play On: Bradley -3.5 Bradley is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS to start the season. I know they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out, but they’re solid defensively and faced a respectful strength of schedule thus far. Murray State will enter this contest on a 3-game losing streak with many of their recent failures deriving from poor defensive play. Give me Bradley minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Oakland -7 v. Detroit | 65-50 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Oakland @ Detroit 7:00 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Oakland -7.0 Detroit has been horrible to start the season. The Titans are 0-6 with an average loss margin by 17.3 points per game and failed to cover on 5 of those 6 occasions. They’ve been especially brutal on the defensive end of the floor. Oakland is 4-3 and covered all 7 games. Oakland is coming off a terrific upset win over Xavier on a neutral floor in a game they were a 15.0-point underdog. They were very competitive in losses by 6 at Ohio State (5-1), by 11 at Illinois (5-1), and by 8 versus Drake (5-1). Give me Oakland minus points. |
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11-28-23 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 223 | 103-115 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Over 223.0 Toronto is coming off a 105-102 loss at Cleveland in their previous game that went under the total of 221.0. The Raptors after played 5-0 to the over during their previous 5 games when the total is 229.5 or less and their previous contest went under. Those 5 contest had a combined average of 239.2 points scored per game. Brooklyn has averaged 117.8 points scored per game throughout their previous 5 contests and shot a blistering hot 42.0% from beyond the 3-point line. During that identical 5-game stretch, the Nets also allowed 119.2 points per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-28-23 | Miami-FL v. Kentucky OVER 163.5 | 73-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Miami @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 619-620 Play On: Over 163.5 This total is this high for good reason and don’t be shocked to see both teams scoring 90 or more points. Miami is #1 nationally in 3-point efficiency while make 45.4% of their long-range attempts. Kentucky is #4 in that category at 42.5%. Kentucky has gone over the total in each of their previous 4 games with a combined average of 181.3 points being scored per contest. Miami has played 4-1 to the over this season with a combined average of 161.4 points scored per game. Both teams play up tempo when looking at their average offense time of possession with Kentucky at 14.9 second (15th nationally) and Miami 15.2 (22nd nationally. Miami is also one the best free throw shooting teams in the nation while making a terrific 82.6% of their attempts. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-27-23 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 12-10 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Bears @ Vikings 8:15 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Over 43.5 Let’s start with tonight’s quarterbacks. During the past 5 seasons, Joshua Dobbs has made 9 home starts and those games played 7-1-1 to the over with an averaged combined points score of 53.4 per contest. Justin Fields has made 7 starts this season and Chicago played 6-1 to the over in those contests and there was a combined average of 51.6 points scored per game. Both quarterbacks have the ability to extend plays with their mobility and are a legitimate threat to take off and run with positive results. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Minnesota has played 8-0 to the over at home when it’s after Game 8 and there was a combined average of 56.1 points scored per game. The Bears have seen each of their last 4 played in Minnesota go over the total and with a combined average of 49.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-26-23 | Raptors +1.5 v. Cavs | 102-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Raptors +1.5 The Raptors have shot the ball extremely well of late and Cleveland has been porous defensively over their last 2 games. Toronto has averaged 121.4 points scored per contest and shot 51.9% throughout their previous 2 games. Conversely, Toronto is coming off 2 consecutive home losses in which they allowed 125.0 points per contest, permitted their opponents to shoot 52.3%, and was -7 rebounds per game. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Bills +3.0 When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets. The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars -125 v. Texans | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Jaguars -125 Jacksonville will be out to revenge a 37-20 upset loss to Houston in Week 2. They outgained the Texans 404-366 in that loss but were -2 in the turnover department. This time around they’ll be facing a Texans team which has committed 3 turnovers in each of their previous 2 games. The Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS on the road or a neutral field this season with an average victory margin of 9.6 points per game. Any NFL away team that has a point-spread of between +3.0 to -11.0 who’s playing between Game 5 through 15, and they’re coming off a division home win in which they scored 31 points or more and covered by 10.0-points or greater., resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 11 wins came by 12.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars as a money line favorite. |
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11-26-23 | Bucs v. Colts -135 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -135 The Colts are coming off 2 straight wins over New England 10-6 and Carolina 27-13. They’re also coming off their bye week and will be well rested. The Colts have gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS during the past 3 seasons after allowing 14 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 game and won by 8.3 points per contest. Tampa Bay has lost their last 3 road games. Any regular season money line home favorite that won each of their previous 2 games and are playing after Game 9, versus an opponent that has a win percentage of .818 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-1 SU (95.6%) since 1993 and 18-0 SU since 2002. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite. |
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11-26-23 | Saints -123 v. Falcons | 15-24 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Saints -123 The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and were a favorite on each occasion. Those defeats dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). The latest of which was a 25-23 setback at Arizona. Since 2018 the Falcons are an abysmal 1-12 SU immediately following a loss by 3 points or fewer and includes 0-4 SU if they were playing at home. New Orleans has gone 6-1 SU in their last 7 and 9-2 SU during their previous 9 games versus Atlanta. They’re also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta. The Saints are just 5-5 but possess a very good turnover margin of +6 for the season. Any NFL money line favorite like the Saints who possess a win percentage of .285 or better, versus an opponent like the Falcons who are coming off 2 consecutive SU favorite losses, and they possess a win percentage of between .400 to .490, resulted in those money line favorites going 21-1 (95.4%) since 1994. Give me the Saints as a money line favorite. |
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11-25-23 | Florida State -6.5 v. Florida | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Florida State -6.5 Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Nets -3.5 Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points. |
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11-25-23 | BYU v. Oklahoma State -16 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0 BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Davidson +11.5 v. St. Mary's | 55-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Davidson @ St. Mary’s 4:00 PM ET Game# 807-808 Play On: Davidson +11.5 St. Mary’s has vastly underachieved in the early portion of their schedule when considering they were a preseason Top 25 team. The Gaels have lost their last 3 including the previous 2 in blowout fashion versus Xavier and San Diego State. They began their current 3-game skid by losing to Weber State at home as a 15.5-point favorite. Davidson is 3-2 but owns a win over Maryland and lost to currently undefeated Clemson by just 3. Davidson posted a 69-45 home win over Boston U. in their previous game. Davidson has gone an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a win by 20 points or more. Give me Davidson plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +10 | 34-13 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Jets +10.0 The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3. NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Iowa v. Nebraska -140 | 13-10 | Loss | -140 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Nebraska -140 This point-spread goes against logical thinking and when that occurs I more times than not go with the nonsensical option. Iowa is 9-2 and ranked #20. Yet, they’re an underdog against a 5-6 Nebraska team which has lost 3 in a row. This certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is coming off a 15-13 home win over unranked Illinois which clinched a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game next week in which they’ll either take on undefeated Michigan or Ohio State. On the other hand, Nebraska needs a win to become bowl eligible which would be a huge boost for the program under first year head coach Jeff Ruhle. Yes, the Cornhuskers are on a 3-game losing streak, but all those defeats cam by 7, 3, and 3 points. Give me Nebraska as a money line favorite. |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Over 42.5 Seattle is coming off an away 17-16 division loss to the Rams which dropped their season record to 6-4 (.600). The 49ers enter this NFL West battle with a record of 7-3 (.700). This sets up a high percentage NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below. NFL teams like Seattle with a win percentage of .727 or worse that are coming off a division loss by 3 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent with a win percentage of between .153 to .769, and the current total in this identical situation is between 39.0 to 46.5, resulted in those contests playing 34-3 (91.9%) to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-23-23 | Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
Commanders @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Over 48.5 Washington has played 4-0 to the over this season when the number is 42.5 or greater and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per game. During their previous 3 games, Washington has averaged 24.0 points scored and 415.8 yards gained per contest. They’ll be facing a Cowboys team which has averaged 40.0 points scored and 446.5 yards gained per game at home this season. Both teams have played 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games with averaged combined scores of 55.8 points scored in contests involving Dallas and 52.3 in those Washington outings. Dallas is coming off a 33-10 win at Carolina and covered as an 11.0-point favorite. Washington is coming off a 31-19 home loss to the New York Giants. Any NFL home favorite of -10.0 or greater that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS cover, versus an opponent that allowed 19 points or more in their previous contest, and the total in this current identical situation is 45.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 7-0 to the over since 1998. There was a combined average of 65.7 points scored per gane during those 7 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Lions -7.5 The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions. Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions OVER 47 | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 2 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Over 47.0 The Packers offense has shown substantial signs of improvement of late. Throughout their previous 3 contests Green Bay has 395.7 yards per game. Although their point per game total of 20.7 per game average during that stretch is indicative of failing to cash in on scoring opportunities more than mediocre at best points scored production. The Lions are averaging a robust 30.0 points scored and 395.4 yards gained per game at home. During their previous 3 contests, the Lions are averaging 32.7 points scored and 452.3 yards gained per game. Since head coach Dan Campbell was hired, Detroit has played 10-4 to the over as a favorite. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Rockets -4.5 Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 237.5 | 99-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Jazz @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Over 237.5 Utah has played 4-0 to the over this season whenever the number was 231.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 258.0 points scored per game. This will be their first meeting of the season against the lakers this season. All 4 games against the Lakers a season ago went over the total and there was a combined average of 253.5 points scored per game. During their previous 5 contests Utah has scored and allowed an identical 125.0 points per game. The Lakers have scored an average of 115.7 points per contest and shot a combined 50.6% over their previous 6 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers v. Suns -12.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Suns -12.5 This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Cavs +8 v. 76ers | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Cavaliers +8.0 After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home. Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chiefs -2.5 No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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11-20-23 | Howard +4 v. Bryant | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Bryant is coming off a massive 61-52 upset of nationally ranked FAU team and did so as a 23.5-point road underdog. That's an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from last season's Final Four team. However, now Bryant finds themselves as a short home favorite against a 2-3 Howard team. If it looks to goo to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me Howard plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Purdue -4.5 v. Gonzaga | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an experienced Purdue team that demolished Gonzaga 84-66 on a neutral court last season. The Boilermakers are 3-0 thus far and have outscored all 3 of those Division 1 opponents by a decisive margin of 29.6 points per game. Gonzaga's lone game versus a division 1 team this year was an uninspiring 15-point home win over Yale. Purdue is a terrific shooting and rebounding team. Expect a similar result to the one we witnessed last year. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46 | 16-17 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rams @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Over 46.0 Mathew Stafford returns to the line after missing the last game at Green Bay due to injury. Stafford has accounted for a trio of 300-yard plus passing games this season which included Week 1 at Seattle. The Seahawks pass defense has been extremely vulnerable in recent seasons and especially when facing upper end quarterbacks like Stafford. This year has been no different which has been proven by them allowing 288 yards or more passing on 4 separate occasions this season. The Seahawks are coming off last Sunday’s 29-26 win over Washington in which they amassed a substantial 489 yards of offense. Quarterback Gino Smith threw for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns in that win. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans -5.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Texans -5.5 Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game. After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals. Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers v. Packers OVER 44 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Over 44.0 Los Angeles Chargers games have averaged a combined 50.5 points scored per game this season. On a negative note, the Chargers defense surrendered 533 yard in last Sunday’s 451-38 home loss to Detroit. Most notable, they allowed the Lions to rush for 200 yards in that contest and marked the 3rd time this season that they allowed 200 or more yards on the ground. Conversely, the Packers have run for 137 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Chargers have averaged 31.7 points scored per game in their last 3 contests. The Packers have played 3-0 to the over this season when they’ve been an underdog of 2.0 or more and there was a combined average of 48.3 points scored per game. The weather prediction in Green Bay is pleasant for this time of year and won’t hinder either offense. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-19-23 | Giants v. Commanders -8.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Commanders -8.5 Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -120 | 22-20 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Washington @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Oregon State -120 We have the #5 team in the country that’s 10-0 like Washington who’s vying for a national championship in a virtual even game against a 2-loss team. It just looks way too good to be true doesn’t it? However, in my professional opinion this current point-spread is justified. Oregon State is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 27.2 points per game. Which includes a 21-7 win over #16 Utah and a 36-24 victory versus UCLA (6-4) who was 4-1 and nationally ranked at that time. Conversely, Washington’s last 6 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. Furthermore, throughout their previous 3 contests the Huskies have allowed an average of 34.3 points and 465.3 yards per game. That’s hardly national championship caliber defense. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina -125 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ South Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: South Carolina -125 South Carolina (4-6) needs a win to keep their postseason bowl hopes alive. The Gamecocks are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida 41-39. During those 5 home contests they’ve average 41.6 point scored and 491.6 yards gained per game. Kentucky started the season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25. However, they’re 1-4 since that time and in those 4 losses allowed 33 points or more on each occasion. Additionally, Kentucky is already bowl eligible along with finishing the regular season next week with a showdown against bitter rival Louisville (9-1) who’s currently ranked #9 in the country. Give me South Carolina on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +9.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Tennessee +9.5 If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points. |
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11-18-23 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +1 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Miami Fla. 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami +1.0 This line makes no sense to me and when that occurs more times than not, I go against what seems to be the obvious choice. We have the #9 team in the country in Louisville at 9-1 as a pick versus an unranked Miami team that’s 6-4 that’s lost the last 2 and 4 of their previous 6 games. Additionally, Louisville game after Miami comes against in state bitter rival Kentucky. If it looks too good to be true pertaining to sports betting it usually is. This is a prime example of such. Give me Miami Fla. on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | SMU v. Memphis +9.5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Memphis +9.5 Memphis enters this American Athletic Conference matchup on a 4-game win streak, and it’s improved their season record to 8-2. Conversely, SMU is coming off a SU&ATS 45-21 win over North Texas. SMU is also 8-2 but all 7 of their wins over FBS opponents this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record and have a combined record of 21-50 (.296). College Football home underdogs of between 2.5 to 14.0 Like Memphis that are coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like SMU who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2018. The home underdogs also went 14-2 SU in those games. Give me Memphis plus points. |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Clippers 10:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Clippers -7.5 Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points. |
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11-17-23 | Harvard v. Massachusetts OVER 151 | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Harvard @ Massachusetts 7:00 PM ET Game# 789-790 Play On: Over 151.0 Taking the red-hot sizable road underdog Rockets who’s won 6 in a row versus an ice-cold Clippers team that’s on a 6-game losing streak qualifies as my designated sucker play of the day. Houston has played 7 of their first 9 games at home. During their current 6-0 SU&ATS run all have been played at home. The Rockets are 0-2 SU&ATS on the road and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. The Clippers played 5 of 6 on the road during their current winless streak. However, at home, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU&ATS with an average +16.0 points per game differential. This line opened at 6.0 and at the time of this writing is 7.5 or 8.0 depending on what sportsbook you are looking at. If it looks too good to be true when it pertains to sports betting, it usually is. Give me the Clippers minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Thunder -130 v. Warriors | 128-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Thunder -130 (ML) Are you curious as to why Golden State is a home underdog. For starters, they’re 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS at home this season with their only win coming by a narrow 1-point margin. They’ll also be without the services of star point guard Stephen Curry (knee). and valuable forward Draymond Green (suspension). The Warriors will enter tonight’s game losers of 4 in a row. Oklahoma City is coming off a 123-87 blowout win of San Antonio and easily covered as a 10.0-point home favorite. The Thunder have held their last 3 opponents to only 97.0 points scored per game and 39.7% shooting. That’s not good news for Golden State who has shot just 41.1% during their current 4-game losing streak. Since the start of the 2019-2020 NBA season, November money line favorites like Oklahoma City that are coming off a double-digit favorite ATS cover have gone 33-2 (94.3%). Give me the Thunder as a money line favorite. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Ravens -3.5 The Ravens are coming off a home favorite 33-31 SU loss to Cleveland last Sunday. That dropped their season record to a still very good 7-3 (.700). The Ravens will be able to move the ball with a high degree of efficiency against a vulnerable Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati is coming off a 30-27 home upset loss to Houston in a game they allowed the Texans to rack up 544 yards of total offense. That marked the 4th time in 9 games this season that the Bengals defense surrendered 400 yards or more. As a matter of fact, the Bengals defense ranks 30th total yards allowed and also 30th at stopping the run. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing offense while averaging 154.9 yards per game. Conversely, the Baltimore defense is #2 in yards allowed per game and they’re #1 at sacking the quarterback. Any regular season NFL favorite like Baltimore with a win percentage between .600 to .750 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they’re playing after Game 8, versus an opponent like Cincinnati that’s coming off a loss and has a win percentage of .181 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2016. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial margin of 21.9 points per game. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Nets @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Nets +3.5 Yes, Miami is on a 6-game win streak. However, all 6 of those wins have come by 8 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been winning decisively during this current hot run. The Heat are 3-1 SU at home but failed to cover on each of those 4 occasions. Additionally, in their only game versus Brooklyn this season they lost 109-105 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Brooklyn is a mediocre 6-5 to start the season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone an extremely profitable 9-1-1 ATS during those 11 contests. Brooklyn has held all 11 of their opponents to less than 50% shooting. They’ve been especially stout defensively over their previous 4 contests while holding teams to 103.0 points scored per game and just 41.1% shooting. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Suns -6.0 This is an extremely fishy line with all being considered. Minnesota is on an 7-game win streak including coming off back-to-back wins at Golden State. Keep in mind, their win over the Warriors last night saw a brawl break out in the first 2 minutes of the game which resulted in 3 players being ejected and may cause a possible suspension or 2 which has yet to be determined. Then we have the Suns who have lost 4 in a row at home. Yet, it’s Phoenix that’s a sizable home favorite tonight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog in this spot. I’m going to reject that temptation. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-15-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. 76ers | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Celtics -4.5 These teams have played once this season and it occurred at Philadelphia last Wednesday with Philadelphia winning 106-103 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Well, the oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result based on the Celtics opening as a 3.5-point road favorite and they quickly moved to 4.5. Since that loss, Boston has gone 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. The 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with the previous 2 at home versus Indiana in which they went 1-1. The 76ers expended a ton of energy in those 2 contests against a Pacers team that pushes the pedal to the metal regarding pace. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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11-15-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 224.5 | 117-107 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Celtics @ 76ers 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 224.5 These teams went well under the total in last week’s meeting when the number was 229.5. The sportsbooks have adjusted that total for tonight and I look for a different type of game. Being that the 76ers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and Boston is coming off a 3-game homestand which ended on Monday, look for the Celtics to make a concerted effort to push the offensive tempo in this contest. Furthermore, Boston has scored 114 points or more in 7 of their previous 9 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has scored 112 points or more in 9 of their 10 games this season. So the relative low scoring output by both teams last week was a rarity and there’s a high probability of that not occurring again. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky v. Kansas -6.5 | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Kentucky vs. Kansas 9:30 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Kansas -6.5 There’s a bit of betting value which has diminished on Kansas since they opened as just a 4.5-point favorite. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Kansas is the more experienced team in this matchup and has more cohesive to their game than Kentucky has at this early stage of the season. This line speaks volumes to me considering both teams are nationally ranked and each is a storied program. Yet, the #1 Jayhawks are a sizable favorite versus #17 Kentucky on a neutral floor to boot. They’re pleading with you to take the underdog here. My answer is no thanks and give me Kansas minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. 76ers | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacers @ 76ers 7:10 ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Pacers +5.5 These team played in Philadelphia on Tuesday and the 76ers walked away with a 137-26 win while also covering as a 7.0-point favorite. Yet, the 76ers opened as a 6.5-point favorite for today’s game and now they’re down to 5.0 despite them going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 outings. The Pacers are very good offensively and to steal a boxing adage they give us a puncher’s chance as a result. Throughout their previous 6 contests, Indiana has averaged a robust 130.5 points scored per game and shot 51.7% from the field. Give me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-14-23 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +11 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Bowling Green 7:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bowling Green +11.0 Toledo began their season with a narrow 2-point loss at Illinois, and since then has won 9 straight games. Bowling Green began the season 2-4 and then proceeded to win 4 in a row to get to their current 6-4 record. Additionally, 2 of their 4 losses came on the road against nationally ranked Liberty 34-24 and Michigan 31-6 who as of this writing are a combined 20-0. Any College Football home underdog of 13.0 or less like Bowling Green currently is that’s currently coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like Toledo who’s coming off a conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2018. Those home underdogs were also 14-1 SU in those 15 games. Give me Bowling Green plus points. |
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11-14-23 | Duke -3.5 v. Michigan State | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Michigan State vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET Game# 613-614 Play On: Duke -3.5 Both teams return 4 starters from a season ago and each is currently 1-1. However, Duke loss came at home to #3 Arizona by 5. Michigan State lost their season opener at home to then unranked James Madison and did so as a 16.5-point favorite. The Spartans have averaged 32 free throw attempts per game and made a somewhat mediocre 70% of those opportunities. Duke allowed 17 free throw attempts per game during their first 2 contests so it’s highly unlikely Michigan State will even come close to their season average today. These teams met last season and Duke won by 9 on a neutral floor and covered as a 6.5-point favorite. Give me Duke minus points. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Bills -7.0 The Broncos are coming off last week’s 24-9 upset win as a 7.0-point home underdog over Kansas City. That victory improved their season record to 3-5 (.375). Since 2014, Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in Monday night away games. The Broncos are also an abysmal 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was between -2.0 to +9.5 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo is coming off a Sunday night 24-18 loss at Cincinnati in a game they also failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Despite the Bills offense falling under heavy criticism, they’re still #7 in total yards, #7 in scoring, and #2 in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll be facing a Broncos defense that’s dead last in the NFL when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The Denver stop unit has especially struggled in non-division contests while allowing 36.2 points and 464.6 yards per game. The Bills struggles have come on the road where they’re 1-4. However, Buffalo is 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by 79.0 yards per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or greater like Buffalo that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus a non-division opponent like Denver with a win percentage of .333 or better who’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The average victory margin came by a decisive 19.0 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-12-23 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 38 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Browns @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Over 38.0 We have the top 2 defenses in the NFL when it comes to total yards allowed. This also features 2 of the top 3 scoring defenses in the league. Thus, the low posted total. It’s a no brainer to take the under, right? That would be an emphatic no. I strongly believe there’s ample betting value in going over the number. Cleveland has gone over the total in all 3 road games this season and with a combined average of 56.3 points scored per contest. Additionally, since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cleveland has played 5-1 to the over in road games where the number was between 35.5 and 42.0 with a combined 49.2 points scored per contest. The Baltimore offense has been on fire during their previous 3 contests while averaging 35.3 points scored and 428.7 yards gained per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Texas @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Texans +7.0 The Bengals are surging while having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. However, this has a good possibility of being a flat spot for them on Sunday. They will be without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and their #1 pass catcher Jamaar Chase is listed as questionable. Additionally, Cincinnati is coming off a 24-18 home win over Buffalo in front of a national television audience and up next is a showdown with AFC North Division leader this coming Thursday. Sandwiched in between is this low profile game against a 4-4 Houston team. Furthermore, despite their 5-3 record, Cincinnati has been outgained by an average of 71.7 yards per game. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a massive performance in last Sunday’s 39-37 home win over Tampa Bay. Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season while being intercepted only once and has averaged 283.8 yards passing yards per game. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: 49ers -3.0 Talk about a fishy line. Jacksonville is a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. Conversely, San Francisco is 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3. Yet, it’s the 49ers who come up favorite in this spot. They’re pleading with you to take the home underdog here. My answer is thank you for the offer but I’m not taking the bait. Here’s the other thing, although Jacksonville is 6-2, both losses took place at home versus Houston and Kansas City. Their lone home win came over the Colts 37-20 in a game they were outgained in total yards by a wide margin of 354-233. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Saints v. Vikings +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Vikings +3.0 After starting the season 0-3, the Vikings have rebounded well and are now 5-4. That includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Minnesota defense has been superb while allowing only 18.0 points and 300.8 yards per game. New Orleans is a respectable 3-2 on the road thus far. However, all 3 of those wins have came over teams that currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. As a matter of fact, this will be their first road game of the season versus a team that currently has a winning record. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Iowa State v. BYU +8 | 45-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ BYU 10:15 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: BYU +8.0 Iowa State had their 3-game win streak halted last Saturday during a 28-21 loss to #17 Kansas. Following this game against 5-4 at BYU they’ll be hosting #7 Texas next. Needless to say this is a potential flat spot for the Cyclones. All 4 losses by BYU have come on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 at home including conference wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech. This is good situation and spot to back the home underdog. Give me BYU plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Florida v. LSU -14.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Florida @ LSU 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: LSU -14.5 The most alarming statistic for Florida is the fact they’ve allowed 40.3 points and 482.3 yards per game over the last 3 contests. That highly problematic when facing the prospect of facing an explosive LSU offense that’s averaging 54.0 points scored and 566.3 yards gained per game while going 4-0 at home. Florida is a poor 1-3 on the road this year. LSU is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus Florida. Give me LSU minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas State -125 v. Coastal Carolina | 23-31 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina 3:30 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Texas State -125 Both teams enter this contest with 6-3 records. Here’s the thing, Coastal Carolina has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while Texas State is just 2-2. Nevertheless, Texas State shows up as a road favorite in this Sun Belt Conference matchup which speaks volumes to me. Texas State is coming off an impressive 45-24 win over a solid Georgia Southern team. Give me Texas State as a money line favorite. |
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11-11-23 | Utah +9 v. Washington | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Utah @ Washington 3:30 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Utah +9.0 Do you want to know why Washington is 9-0 and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture? Well I’m glad you asked. The Huskies last 5 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. The Washington defense has allowed 33 points or greater and 499 yards or more during 3 of their previous 4 games. Conversely Utah is 7-2 with their only losses coming to #6 Oregon and #12 Oregon State. Utah has scored 34 points or great and gained 445 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. The Utes productive running game will be highly effective in this game and in turn control time of possession while limiting offensive possessions for thus high scoring Huskies. Give me Utah plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona -10 v. Colorado | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Colorado 2:00 PM ET Game# 169-170 Play On: Arizona -10.0 After a promising 3-0 start that saw them ranked in the Top 25, Colorado has lost 5 of their last 6 and will be hard pressed to become bowl eligible. During this current 6-game funk, Colorado has allowed 33.9 points and 469.0 yards per contest. They will be play against a surging Arizona team that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing 13.3 points and 304.0 yards per game. Their last 2 of those wins coming off quality wins over UCLA and Oregon State. These are 2 teams headed on opposite paths. Give me Arizona minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas Tech +4 v. Kansas | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On Texas Tech +4.0 Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins versus Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Now they find themselves as just a small home favorite versus a 4-5 Texas Tech team. Additionally, up next for the #17 Jayhawks is #7 Texas. This seems like a fishy line and a potential flat for Kansas. Speaking of Texas Tech, they’re coming off a 35-28 home win over TCU. The Red Raiders are 1-3 SU on the road but have played much better during those contests than that poor record indicates. During those 4 away contests they are a +0.8-point differential and +78.0 yard per game differential. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU -17 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 9:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: SMU -17.0 SMU has gone 4-0 SU&ATS during the previous 4 seasons versus North Texas and won by an average substantial margin of 28.3 points per game. The Mustangs are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 contests with an average victory margin of 39.3 points per outing and outgained those opponents by an enormous 339.4 yards per game. Furthermore, SMU is 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and won by a massive average margin of 42.7 points per game. SMU will be facing a 3-6 North Texas team which allows an average of 36.7 points and 469.0 yards per game. Any college football home favorite of between 10.0 and 31.5 like SMU with a win percentage of .777 or better, and they’re coming off 3 wins in a row in which they scored 36 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent like TCU with a win percentage of .200 or better that’s coming off 2 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2002 and they won by an average of 32.8 points per contest. Give me SMU minus points. |
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11-10-23 | Yale +12.5 v. Gonzaga | 71-86 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Yale @ Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET Game# 859-860 Play On: Yale +12.5 This line and the ensuing line movement caught my attention in a big way. We have the college basketball powerhouse #11 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs as just a 12.5-point home favorite versus an Ivy League team. Furthermore, the number opened at 14.5 and was bet down to as low as 12.0 with some razor-sharp money. This will be the season opener while Yale already has a game under the belt in which they came away with a 102-53 win over Vassar who’s a division 2 school Vassar and they shot a sizzling hot 63% in that contest. Granted they’ll be stepping way up in class tonight. However, Yale returns 4 starters from last season’s 21-9 team that lost to Vanderbilt in the NIT. This is also a Yale program which has gone a combined 85-36 over their past 4 seasons under current head coach James Jones and reached the NCAA Tournament twice. Give me Yale plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | Tennessee v. Wisconsin +2.5 | 80-70 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET Game# 861-862 Play On: Wisconsin +2.5 Tennessee may be the most talented and athletic team in this matchup. However, the Badgers have traditionally had a strong home court advantage and return all 5 starters from last year’s 20-15 team which reached the NIT Semifinal. That type of experience coupled with a consistent winning culture will pay dividends against the #8 ranked Volunteers. Give me Wisconsin plus points. |
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11-10-23 | San Diego State v. BYU -125 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ BYU 9:00 PM ET Game# 863-864 Play On: BYU -125 This line seems a bit fishy to me since we have the unranked BYU Cougars as a favorite versus #17 San Diego State who reached the national championship game this past April. Additionally, the Aztecs are coming off an extremely impressive 2nd half performance during their season opening 83-57 blowout win over CS-Fullerton in a game they led by just 2 at the half. BYU returns 4 starters from a team that went 19-15 a season ago. Not to mention this game will be played before an electric sellout crowd of 17,978 in Provo. They’re begging us to take the underdog in this spot. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me BYU on the money line. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Bears -3.0 The Bears will stick to their offensive strength and that’s running the ball. Although the Bears are a poor 1-3 at home this season, they’ve averaged 157 yards rushing per contest and 4.7 yards per attempt. Conversely, Carolina is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road while losing by an average of 15.8 points per game and they surrendered 149 yards rushing per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | 124-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Pacers 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Pacers +3.0 Milwaukee is 5-2 to start the season. However, 4 of those 5 wins have come by 5 points or fewer and with the line exception being a 122-114 home victory over Miami. As a matter of fact, despite their 5-2 record, the Bucks are a -2.3 points per game differential and a -7.1 rebound per game differential. Additionally, throughout their previous 4 contests they’re an abysmal -12.3 rebound per game differential. The Bucks offense has been as explosive as it’s been in recent years. However, their play at the defensive end of the floor has been terrible. Indiana will be playing the finale of a 5-game homestand today. The Pacers have been victorious in their last 2 with blowout wins over Utah 134-118 and San Antonio 152-111. The Pacers are 5-3 and 0.5 games behind Milwaukee in the standings, yet they have a superior point per game differential of +4.8 compared to the Bucks -2.3. Any NBA home team like Indiana that’s coming off 2 or more home wins in a row, versus an opponent like Milwaukee that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU since the 2019-2020 season. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the underdog in this spot. Give me the +Pacers plus points. |