Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Mavericks 7:40 PM ET Game# 579-580 Play On: Celtics -2.5 (4*) This line is a bit of a head scratcher with all considered. Dallas is currently on a 7-game win streak and is 15-5 at home. Boston will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days and the first 2 were forgetful. The Celtics were inexplicable hammered at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night 150-117 as an 11.5-point favorite. On their 1st game of this road trip, they were defeated 123-111 at Denver. They allowed Denver and Oklahoma City to shoot a combined 58.2% which is absolutely atrocious defense. Yet. Boston is a small road favorite against a red-hot Nuggets team. This looks like an ideal situation to jump all over the home underdog. However, it’s seldom that easy when it comes to sports betting. I am going with a contrarian mindset in this spot. Give me Boston minus the small number. |
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01-04-23 | Illinois -3 v. Northwestern | 60-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET Game# 723-724 Play On: Illinois -3.0 (5*) Both teams are very good defensively. However, Northwestern is horrible offensively and Illinois isn’t. As a matter of fact, Northwestern has shot 34.5% or worse in 5 of its last 8 games. That will ultimately be the deciding factor in this contest. Northwestern was exposed in a 16-point home loss to Ohio State in their previous game played which by all indications showed they’re not nearly as good as their then 10-2 record indicated. That makes Northwestern is 0-3 versus Power Conference teams this season with 2 of those defeats occurring at home, and they lost by an average of 15.3 points per game. They also were blown out by Pittsburgh at home 87-58. Illinois has won their last 8 games against Northwestern. The Illini have also posted quality wins over nationally ranked Texas and UCLA. Give me Illinois minus the small number. |
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01-04-23 | St. Joe's v. Dayton -14 | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
St. Joseph’s @ Dayton 7:00 PM Game# 657-658 Play On: Dayton -14.0 (5*) Dayton is finally starting to round into form. The Flyers were a preseason Top 25 team but failed to live up to expectations throughout the first 4 month of the season. However, the Flyers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 with an average victory margin of 21.6 points per game. Dayton is also 8-0 at home with an average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. During their current win streak, Dayton has shot an outstanding 51.3% and made 38.6% of its 3-point attempts. The Flyers rank #18 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.7 points per 100 of their opponent’s offensive possessions. They’ll be facing a St. Joe’s team that is an uninspiring 6-7 this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in College Basketball to this point. Give me Dayton minus the points. |
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01-04-23 | Penn State +4.5 v. Michigan | 69-79 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan 7:00 PM ET Game# 683-684 Play On: Penn State +4.5 (5*) Playing on the road in a hostile environment won’t affect Penn State as it would many other teams. After all, according to KenPom the Nittany Lions are the most experienced team in the country. All you must look at is the fact they turn the ball over on a mere 12.9% of its offensive possessions which ranks best in the country. This will be the Nittany Lions 3rd true road game of the season. They won by 15 at Illinois and lost in double overtime to Clemson on the previous 2 occasions. Penn State is 11-3 on the year and that includes a current 5-game win streak. Conversely, Michigan is just 8-5 and includes 5-5 in their last 10. Give me Penn State plus the points. |
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01-03-23 | Virginia -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 65-68 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Pittsburgh 9:00 PM ET Game# 633-634 Play On: Virginia -5.5 (5*) The sportsbooks are unimpressed with Pittsburgh despite their 3-0 ACC record. Virginia is Top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have already recorded 3 wins this season versus teams (Baylor, Illinois, Michigan) that are ranked in KenPom’s Top 50. Virginia is the 4th most experienced team in the country and their core group have enjoyed much past successes. The point being, they will be unfazed by playing on the road against a team that quite frankly has played over their heads thus far. Give me Virginia minus the points. |
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01-03-23 | Kansas v. Texas Tech +1.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Texas Tech 9:00 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On Texas Tech +1.5 (5*) According to KenPom, Texas Tech has the #1 home court advantage in the country which they deem to be worth 4.7 points per contest. The Red Raiders are a perfect 8-0 at home this season and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. The Red Raiders are adept at getting to the free throw line averaging 23 free throw attempts per game and that goes up to 26 at home. Texas Tech is coming off a 67-61 loss at TCU in their previous outing. However, they followed up their previous 2 losses with wins by 14 over Georgetown and a 32-point rout of Louisville. Give me Texas Tech over Kansas. |
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01-03-23 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -8.5 | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Seton Hall @ Creighton 8:30 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Creighton -8.5 (5*) Despite their 8-6 record, this is a very good Creighton team that’s played the 13th most difficult schedule in the county to this point. The Blue Jays are #34 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and #28 defensively. Seaton Hall comes in with a comparable 8-7 record and having played the 9th toughest schedule. Yet they find themselves as a heft underdog in this matchup. The Pirates are solid defensively but their offensive prowess leaves much to be desired. Give me Creighton minus the points. |
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01-02-23 | Utah +1.5 v. Penn State | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*) Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality. Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769). College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001. Give me Utah over Penn State. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*) This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th. Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*) The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games. Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit. NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Rams +6.5 v. Chargers | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Rams +6.5 (5*) Don’t expect the 5-10 Rams to lay down in this game just because their playoff hopes were put to rest for few weeks now. All you need to do in look at their 51-14 home win over Denver last week. Granted, the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. However, we are a sizable underdog in a game in which both teams share the same stadium. Nonetheless, the Rams are the designated road team on Sunday. NFL regular away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like the Rams who are playing after Game 14, and they’re coming off a home win, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 going 18-0 ATS since 2014. Those underdogs also went a very respectable 9-9 SU in those contests. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 52.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Bears @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Under 52.5 (5*) Any team like Detroit that’s coming off a SU favorite loss by 14 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .636 or worse, and there’s a total of 46.0 or greater, versus a division opponent with a win percentage of .714 or worse and they’re coming off a game in which they allowed 40 points or fewer, resulted in those games playing 17-0 to the under since 2015. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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01-01-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Patriots | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 (5*) I firmly believe there’s been too much emphasis on Tua being out for this huge AFC East battle with playoff implications. The Dolphins backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has started and played in some big games when a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Miami is coming off a 26-20 loss to Green Bay in a game they were a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, New England was handed a 22-18 loss by Cincinnati and failed to cover as a 3.0-point home underdog. That dropped the Patriots season record to 7-8. NFL division road underdogs like Miami that are coming off a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent like New England that has a losing record and is coming off a home underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road underdogs going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdogs not only covered in all those contests, but they won each one outright and by an average of 7.2 points per game. Give me the Dolphins plus the points. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*) Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense. Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan OVER 58 | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
TCU vs. Michigan 4:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Over 58.0 (5*) These offenses rank #6 and #7 nationally in scoring with both averaging a tad over 40 points per game. On the other side of the ball, despite their 12-1 record TCU is currently #74 nationally while allowing 384.6 yards per game. The Horned Frogs have allowed 31 points or more 5 times this season. TCU has also allowed their opponent to gain 396 yards or more in 7 of their 13 games. That includes giving up 476 to SMU, 501 to Baylor, and 540 to Kansas. Michigan allowed 326 yards or less in each of their fist 11 games of the season. Hence, their dominant season long defensive statistics. However, in their last 2 games versus Purdue and Ohio State they showed some vulnerabilities. They gave up 494 yards to Ohio State in their regular season finale and 426 to Purdue in the Big 10 Championship Game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-31-22 | Iowa -130 v. Kentucky | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Iowa vs. Kentucky 1:00 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Iowa -130 (5*) For starters, the Kentucky offense will be without their starting quarterback Will Levis who opted out. Things were going to be hard enough for the Kentucky offense even with Levis against the Hawkeyes stingy defense. Iowa allowed 13 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. Speaking of Iowa, they’ll certainly be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths after suffering a 24-17 home loss to Nebraska, and that transpired with them closing as a 10.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped the Hawkeyes record to 7.5 (.583). Iowa will be facing a Kentucky team which enters this Music City Bowl matchup with an identical 7-5 (.583) record. College Football favorites like Iowa who are coming off a conference SU loss as a favorite of 6.0 or greater, and they possess a win percentage of between .510 to .600, versus an opponent like Kentucky who has a win percentage of .800 or worse, resulted in those favorites going 30-0 SU since 2016. Give me Iowa on the money line. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State +7 v. Alabama | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*) Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game. Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win. Give me Kansas State plus the points. |
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12-30-22 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 225.5 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Washington @ Orlando 7:10 PM ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Over 225.5 (5*) Orlando has seen each of their last 3 at home go over the total and with an enormous combined average of 248.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, Orlando has scored 110 or more in each of their previous 6 at home and they averaged 119.8 points scored per game. Conversely, Washington has scored 112 points or more in 6 consecutive games and they allowed 111 or greater on 5 of those occasions. Orlando is coming off a 121-101 road loss to Detroit and it came as a 1.0-point favorite. NBA teams like Orlando that have a total of 220.0 to 229.5 and are coming off a road favorite SU loss by 15points or more, resulted in those contests playing 27-6 (81.8%) to the over since 1996. Those 33 contests had an average total of 224.4 and there was a combined 236.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming v. Ohio -134 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Wyoming vs. Ohio 4:30 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Ohio -134 (5*) Ohio started the season 2-3 and giving up a ton of passing yards. However, they righted the ship and finished their regular season slate with 7 consecutive wins before falling 17-7 to Toledo in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats don’t beat themselves which is evidenced by a turnover margin of +12. Ohio is also tied for 16th nationally as teams that are the least penalized. Wyoming will be without every single running back that had a carry this season. They also will be without their top wide receiver Joshua Cobb. It’s not like the Cowboys were burning up lights on the scoreboard over their final 3 games with those players in the lineup. During that stretch Wyoming averaged a mere 10.0 points scored and 245.0 yards gained per game. Since 2013, any College Football team like Ohio that is +3.0 to -3.0, and they’re facing an opponent that has averaged 250 yards or less of total offense throughout each of their previous 3 games, resulted in those teams going 36-8 SU (81.8%) since 2013. They outscored those 44 opponents by an average of 9.8 points per game. Give me Ohio on the money line. |
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12-29-22 | Knicks v. Spurs OVER 225 | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Spurs 8:10 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Over 225.0 (5*) Both teams have gone over the total in each of their previous 5 games. During those stretched, New York games have averaged a combined 231.6 points scored per contest and San Antonio game produced 242.0 points per outing. Each team has shot a combined 49% throughout those spans. The Spurs have allowed 122 points or more in each of its last 4. While New York has allowed 113 points or greater in all of its last 4. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*) Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games. Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season. Give me Florida State minus the points. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech +3.5 | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*) These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas OVER 69 | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Kansas vs. Arkansas 5:30 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: Over 69.0 (5*) It’s a simple equation, both defenses are suspect at best, and each offense is formidable and won’t be stopped. The starting quarterbacks Jaden Daniels of Kansas and K.J. Jefferson from Arkansas are very good dual threat College Football quarterbacks. Kansas has played 8-4 to the over this season with an average combined score of 68.0 points scored per game. That includes 4-0 to the over in their previous 4 when the total was 60.0 or greater and a combined average of 77.0 points scored per contest. The Jayhawks have allowed 42 points or more on 5 separate occasions this season and they also tallied 31 points or greater 7 times. Arkansas has played 4-1 to the over this season when there’s been a total of 60.0 or greater and 2-0 over when 66.5 or more. Kansas finished their regular season slate with a 47-27 loss to the Big 12 champs Kansas State. Since the start of last season, Kansas has played 7-0 to the over in games not played at home following a conference loss, and those contests averaged a combined 78.3 points scored per occurrence. Arkansas finished regular season action by going 1-3. Since the start of last season, the Razorbacks have played 6-0 to the over after losing 2 of its previous 3 games played. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*) Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin. Give me Duke minus the points. |
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12-27-22 | Clippers v. Raptors OVER 219 | 124-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Raptors 7:40 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Over 219.0 (5*) Toronto has seen 5 of their last 6 go over the total with a combined average of 227.8 points scored per game. Charlotte has played 9-0 to the over in their last 9 on the road. The average total in those 9 contests was 217.4 and there was a combined 234.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET Game# 241-242 Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*) East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season. Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale. East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games. Give me East Carolina minus the points. |
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12-27-22 | Georgia Southern v. Buffalo OVER 66.5 | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern 12:00 PM ET Game# 237-238 Play On: Over 66.5 (5*) Georgia Southern has a dynamic passing attack that ranks #4 nationally while averaging 327.4 yards per game. Conversely, the Eagles are #129 in total defense allowing 497.7 yards per game. The only teams in the nation that were worse was Colorado and South Florida. Georgia Southern starting quarterback Kyle Vantrease has passed for 3901 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Ironically enough, the 6th year senior played his previous 5 seasons at Buffalo where he never had more than 8 touchdown passings and failed to reach 1900 yards passing at any time. Buffalo has seen each of their last 4 games as an underdog go over the total with a combined average of 66.0 points scored per game. The Bulls allowed 35 points or more in 7 of 12 regular season games while playing a soft schedule. Buffalo allowed 30 points or more in 7 of 12 games. They’ve also scored 30 points or greater in 6 of its 12 regular season contests. College Football neutral site teams like Buffalo with a total of 63.5 to 70.0 that are facing a non-conference team, and both teams have between a +50 to -50 totals yards per game differential, resulted in those contests playing 28-8 (77.8%) to the over since 1992. Those contests had an average total of 66.3 and there were a combined 75.9 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts UNDER 44.5 | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Colts 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Under 44.5 (5*) The Chargers have gone under the total in each of their previous 3 and there was a combined average of 39.3 points scored per game. During their last 2, the Chargers have allowed only 15.5 points and 251.5 yards per game. Indianapolis is coming off last week’s complete meltdown in which they blew a 33-0 halftime lead and eventually lost 39-36 in overtime. Despite that 36-point offensive output, the Colts only scored 1 offensive touchdown. They allowed the Vikings to pass for 426 yards in that loss and it marked the first time this season they allowed more than 266 yards passing. The week before they lost 54-19 at Dallas in a game in which they committed 5 turnovers and put their defense in tough short field positions. NFL home teams like the Colts with a losing record playing after Game 4 with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive losses in which they allowed 35 points or more, resulted in those contests playing 34-7 (82.9%) to the under since 1983. Give me this game to go under the total |
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12-26-22 | Wolves +3.5 v. Heat | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 505-506 Play On: Timberwolves +3.5 (5*) Since the start of last season, Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU versus Miami and with an average victory margin of 8.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since 12/30/2018. Minnesota has gone 8-1 SU versus Miami. Miami has drained their betting supporters out of a lot of money thus far when playing at home. They’ve gone just 9-8 SU and 3-13-1 ATS at home this season. That includes going 1-4 SU and 0-5 during its last 5 at home. Give me the Timberwolves plus the points. |
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12-26-22 | Nets v. Cavs -125 | 125-117 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Nets @ Cavaliers 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Cleveland -125 (5*) Cleveland is coming off a 118-107 home loss to Toronto. That setback marked the 1st home loss of the season for Cleveland versus a fellow Eastern Conference team. They’re now 11-1 SU in conference home games. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home overall. Brooklyn is currently riding an 8-game win streak in addition to being victorious during 12 of its last 13. Yet, they’re currently listed as an underdog in this matchup. That speaks volumes to me. Give me Cleveland on the money line. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 224 | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Pistons 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 224.0 (5*) Detroit has witnessed their last 6 home games go over the total when the number was 236. Or less. Those 6 contests averaged a combined 243.8 points scored per game. The Clippers have gone over the total in 8 consecutive road games with a combined average of 230.0 points scored per game. This matchup has all the earmarks of a high scoring and entertaining game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins OVER 49.5 | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Over 49.5 (5*) Miami is coming off a 32-29 loss at Buffalo that dropped their season record to 8-6. The Dolphis have now gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games when there was a total of 53.5 or less and there was a combined average of 56.2 points scored per contest. Green Bay has played 4-1 to the over in their last 5 with a combined average of 51.8 points scored per game. NFL home teams like Miami that are coming off a division loss by 3 points or fewer in which they scored 17 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .200 or better, versus a team like Green Bay playing after Game 8 and they scored 45 points or fewer in their previous contest, resulted in those games playing 29-1-2 (96.7%) to the over since 2012. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Cowboys 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Under 47.5 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off a 25-20 win at Chicago last Sunday but failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite. NFL road teams like Philadelphia with a total of between 43.0 to 49.5 that were facing a division opponent, and they’re coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, resulted in those games playing 28-5 (84.8%) to the under since 2011. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders +7 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Commanders @ 49ers 4:05 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Commanders +7.0 (5*) Washington still controls their own postseason destiny despite last week’s disappointing 20-12 loss to the New York Giants. They currently have a ½ game lead over Detroit and Seattle for the final NFC wildcard berth. The Commanders have gone an excellent 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 away games. The 49ers have things locked up in the NFC West and it’s now a matter of whether they can catch Minnesota for the #2 seed in the NFC. The 49ers defense has received a ton of accolades and rightfully so. Nonetheless, Washington has allowed 21 points or fewer in each of their last 10 games while also holding opponents to less than 300 yards in 5 of those contests. Washington will give an excellent San Francisco team all they can handle and then some. Give me the Commanders plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Giants @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Giants +4.0 (5*) The Giants are coming off last Sunday’s huge 20-10 road win over Washington in a game that had major postseason implications. That victory improved their season record to 8-5-1 (.607). The Giants have gone a very profitable 5-1 ATS on the road this season and won 4 of those SU. Meanwhile, Minnesota overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit in last Saturday’s 39-36 overtime win versus Indianapolis. Despite their impressive 11-3 record, Minnesota is averaging outscoring their opponents by 0.2 points per game. They’ve seen 5 of their 11 wins come by 4 points or fewer. The Vikings defense has really struggled during the 2nd half of the season. Specifically speaking, throughout their previous 6 contests, Minnesota has allowed 31.3 points and 440.7 yards per game. NFL teams like the Giants that are coming off a division win in which they allowed 7 or more points, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, versus a team like Minnesota who’s coming of a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in teams like the Giants going 17-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2017. Furthermore, they went 14-4 SU in those exact situations as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Baltimore -6.0 (5*) The strength of Atlanta’s offense is their running game and especially so during the 2nd half of this season. However, they’ll be facing a Baltimore defense which has held 10 of 14 opponents this season to 88 yards or less rushing and is #3 in the NFL against the run. On the other hand, Baltimore possesses the #2 rushing offense in the NFL at 164.7 yards per game. The Ravens will be facing an Atlanta defense which has allowed an average of 171.2 yards per game on the ground over their previous 5 contests. Give me Baltimore minus the points. |
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12-23-22 | Pelicans v. Thunder -130 | 128-125 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Pelicans @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Thunder -130 (5*) Just in case you’re wondering why OKC is a favorite, the Pelicans will be without their 2 stars Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. The line has been adjusted accordingly. New Orleans has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road. The Pelicans are coming off last night’s 126-117 home win over San Antonio which snapped an 0-4 SU&ATS losing run. On the other hand, the Thunder have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with all those wins coming as an underdog. Today will be the 6th of a 7-game homestand for OKC. Give me the Thunder on the money line. |
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12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Bulls @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET Game# 565-566 Play On: Knicks -5.0 (5*) The Knicks will be in a sour mood after suffering a 113-106 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. That ended a 8-game win streak for New York. Chicago will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off away underdog SU wins in their previous 2. However, they’ve gone 0-2 SU&ATS versus New York this season with both coming on their home floor. They lost those 2 contests to New York by 8 and 23 points and were a combined -28 on the boards. Give me New York minus the points. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Clippers @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET Game# 557-558 Play On: Under 215.5 (5*) Both teams have been outstanding defensively in recent games. Throughout their previous 5 games, the Clippers held their opponents to only 98.0 points scored per game, 43.0% shooting, and 26.8% from 3-point territory. It resulted in 4 of those 5 games staying under the total. Conversely, Philadelphia has allowed 103.2 points per game over their last 5 while opponents shot just 41.5% and 30.9% from beyond the 3-point line. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 47 h 35 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET Game# 229-230 Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*) UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State. Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup. Give me Houston minus the points. |
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12-22-22 | Kent State -6.5 v. UTEP | 47-46 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Kent State @ UTEP Game# 871-872 Play On: Kent State -6.5 (5*) Most times than not I shy away from backing sizable road favorites. However, this matchup is an exception. UTEP is a horrible offensive team. Additionally, the Miners have committed turnovers in 21.6% of their offensive possession this season which ranks #306 nationally. To compound that issue, they’ll be facing a Kent State tonight that forces turnovers in 24.1% of their opponent’s offensive possessions which is 23rd best nationally. Kent State has played the way more difficult schedule than UTEP has faced to this point. The Golden Flashes are 9-3 with their only 3 losses coming at #2 Houston by 5, at #11 Gonzaga by 7and by 2 at Charleston (12-1). Give me Kent State minus the points. |
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12-22-22 | Illinois v. Missouri OVER 153.5 | 71-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Illinois vs. Missouri 9:00 PM ET Game# 851-852 Play On: Over 153.5 (5*) This game has all the earmarks of a high scoring entertaining affair. This is a Missouri team that prefers to play at a lightning-fast tempo. The Tigers are averaging 73.9 offensive possession per 40 minutes played which ranks 18th nationally. They’ll have a willing dance partner in Illinois who averages 71.5 offensive possession per 40 minutes which ranks #56 out of 363 Division 1 teams. Furthermore, Illinois made 57.2% of their 2 points shots (#19) and Missouri is #2 nationally in that exact category while making 61.4% of their shots inside the 3-point arc. Missouri is also #13 in offensive efficiency while scoring 113.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. Missouri has gone over in 4 consecutive contests this season when the total is 151.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 176.5 points per game. This total is as high as it is for good reason. Missouri has been extremely poor defensively throughout its previous 5 contests while allowing opponents to score 80.6 points per game, shoot 50.9%, and convert on 40.8% of its 3-point attempts. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-22-22 | George Washington v. Washington State -9.5 | 64-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
George Washington vs. Washington State 9:00 PM ET Game# 855-856 Play On: Washington State -9.5 (5*) George Washington is 6-4 thus far but they’ve been beneficiaries of playing the 5th easiest schedule in the country to this point. Conversely, Washington State is an uninspiring 4-6 but has played the 45th toughest schedule and has been very competitive in most of those losses against high quality teams. The Cougars have made a stellar 38.4% of their 3-point shots this season which ranks #32 nationally. Washington State will also have a huge advantage on both the offensive and defensive glass in this matchup. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -125 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Cleveland -125 (ML) (5*) These teams met twice earlier this season, both were played at Milwaukee, and the Bucks won by 15 points on each occasion. Yet, Milwaukee is an underdog in this matchup which speaks volumes to me. Furthermore, Cleveland has gone 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS at home this season and that includes 10-0 SU and 7-1-2 ATS when they were facing fellow Eastern Conference teams. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a conference home favorite of 7.5 or less and had an average victory margin of 17.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland on the money line. |
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12-20-22 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. Florida | 62-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. Florida 9:30 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Oklahoma +3.5 (5*) This game will be played at a neutral site at Charlotte, North Carolina. Both teams are very good 3-point shooting teams. However, Oklahoma is #16 nationally in 3-point shooting defense while holding their opponents to a mere 28.3% conversion rate. On the other hand, Florida is #247 out of 363 Division 1 teams in that same category with opponents making 35.5 % of its 3-point tries. Give me Oklahoma plus the points. |
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12-20-22 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northwestern UNDER 131.5 | 54-92 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Illinois-Chicago @ Northwestern 9:00 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Under 131.5 (5*) Northwestern has allowed 63 points or fewer in 9 of 10 games this season. They rank #9 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 88.4 points per 100 offensive possessions by their opponents. Northwestern has played 5-1 to the under at home this season with a combined average of only 122.1 points scored per game and they allowed 54 points or less on 5 of those 6 occasions. The flip side to that equation is the Wildcats are a poor offensive team from an analytics standpoint. Conversely, UIC has seen 4 of its last 5 go under with a combined average of 132.2 points scored per game. UIC is also #286 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency averaging just 96.9 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-20-22 | Seton Hall v. Xavier -8 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Seton Hall @ Xavier vs. 8:30 PM ET Game# 625-626 Play On: Xavier -8.0 (5*) Xavier enters tonight’s game on a 5-game win streak and had a +11 rebound per game differential in those contests. Additionally, during their current win streak, Xavier had an excellent 24-14 assist-to-turnover ratio. Conversely, Seton Hall has a dismal 10 assist to 16 turnover ration throughout it’s previous 5 contests. The Musketeers are a well-balanced offensive team which ranks #2 nationally in 3-point shooting (42.3%) and #33 in 2-point shooting percentage (55.9%). According to KenPom, the Musketeers are #9 in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 115.1 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. Give me Xavier minus the points. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*) This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog. Give me Liberty plus the points. |
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12-19-22 | Hornets v. Kings -9.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Sacramento -9.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-19-22 | Jazz v. Cavs -6 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Utah @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Cleveland -6.0 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-19-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Philadelphia -7.5 (5*) There is no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-18-22 | Iona +3 v. New Mexico | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Iona @ New Mexico Game# 761-762 Play On: Iona +3.0 (5*) This line jumped off the board at me since 7-2 Iona is only a 3.0-point road underdog versus a 10-0 New Mexico team. However, the Lobos have played an extremely soft schedule, and KenPom clearly indicates that as they have them at #267 out of 363 Division 1 teams with regards to strength of schedule. Conversely, Iona is #121 in that category and enters today on a 5-game win streak which includes an 84-62 win over #64 St. Louis. Despite New Mexico being undefeated, KenPom has New Mexico ranked #58 which is extremely high for a team from the Metro Athletic Association Conference. The Gaels are also very good defensively which is evidenced by the being #5 in percentage of blocked shots and #34 in 2-points field goal percentage at 44.1%. Iona doesn’t beat themselves as they commit turnovers on only 14.3% of its offensive possession which is 8th best in the country. Give me Iona plus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*) Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins. The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings. Give me Carolina minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 43.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Over 43.5 (5*) New Orleans is coming off a gut-wrenching 17-16 division loss at Tampa Bay. Atlanta dropped a 19-16 home decision to Pittsburgh last Sunday. This sets up an excellent NFL totals betting algorithm which hasn’t loss during the past 10 seasons and is displayed below. NFL home teams like New Orleans playing after Game 8 with a total of 46.5 or less that are coming off a division loss by 3 points or fewer, and they scored 16 points or more in that loss, versus teams like Atlanta that scored 34 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 19-0-2 to the over since 2013. The average total in those 21 contests was 41.9 and there was a combined 57.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-18-22 | Chiefs v. Texans OVER 49 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Over 49.0 (5*) NFL away favorites of 13.0 or greater with a total of 45.0 or more that are playing after Game 5, versus an opponent that scored 16 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those games playing 10-0 to the over since 2007. The average total in those 10 contests was 48.5 and there was a combined 61.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles -8.5 v. Bears | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Philadelphia -8.5 (5*) Philadelphia’s offense has been red-hot throughout their previous 3 contests while averaging 41.0 points and 463.3 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off last week’s convincing 48-22 road win over the Giants. They’ll be facing a Chicago team that’s gone 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 and allowed 33.5 points per game during that stretch. NFL favorites of 6.5 or greater playing after Game 8 like Philadelphia who possess a winning record, and they’re coming off a road win by 21 points or more, versus a team like Chicago with a losing record, resulted in those favorites of 6.5 or greater going 22-3 (88%) ATS since 2013. Give me Philadelphia minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Texas A&M v. Memphis -6 | 79-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Memphis 7:00 PM ET Game# 677-678 Play On: Memphis -6.0 (5*) Texas A&M is 6-3 and all 3 losses have come against unranked teams. Those defeats came against Colorado by 28, Murray State by 9, and Boise State by 15. Memphis is better than even their 8-3 record indicates. Their 3 losses have come by just a combined 10 points with the latest of which occurring on Tuesday 91-88 at #4 Alabama. The Tigers already have posted 5 wins over Power Conference teams. Give me Memphis minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | UCLA -125 v. Kentucky | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
UCLA vs. Kentucky 5:30 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: UCLA -125 (ML) (5*) The Wildcats 2 losses this season have come against Gonzaga by 16 and Michigan State by 9. Both losses took place on a neutral floor. Kentucky has now gone a dismal 3-8 SU in neutral site games since the start of the 2020-2021 season. Since losing 2 straight games earlier this season versus #18 Illinois and #11 Baylor, UCLA has won 6 while doing so by an average of 23.5 points per contest. The last of those wins came on Wednesday at #20 Maryland in which they blew the Terrapins 87-60. They shot 55.6% in that win while committing only 4 turnovers. During this current win streak, UCLA has shot 55% or better 4 times and forced an average of 18.2 turnovers per game. Give me UCLA on the money line. |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Cleveland 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Cleveland -2.5 (5*) Here we are entering Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have a 5-8 team (Cleveland) as a favorite over a 9-4 (Baltimore) opponent. Yes, Baltimore is without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but this line still speaks volumes to me. NFL betting history over the last 27 season has shown that losing teams that are favorite over winning teams this late in the year have been a strong play on. NFL favorites like Cleveland playing after Game 12 with a losing record, versus teams like Baltimore who own a win percentage of .692 or better, resulted in those favorites going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS since 1996. If those losing teams were favorites of 3.5 or less, they improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS throughout that identical time span with a substantial average victory margin of 17.6 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Toledo v. Marshall -3 | 85-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Marshall 3:30 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Marshall -3.0 (5*) Both teams are explosive offensively and neither shies away from playing a fast tempo game. However, Marshall is the better defensive team in this matchup and that will ultimately be the difference. Additionally, the Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU and 5-1 at home thus far with an average victory margin of 17.7 points per game. Furthermore, Marshal is 3-0 SU&ATS versus teams (Ohio, Akron, Miami-Ohio) from the MAC this season and won by 17.0 points per contest. Toledo is allowing 79.7 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 48.1% in games played on the road or neutral sites. Give me Marshall minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State -8 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*) This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses. Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC. Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 42 h 41 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Indianapolis +4.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me when considering the disparity between these team’s records. Minnesota is 10-3 while the Colts come in at 4-8-1 and that includes losing 6 of its last 7 games. Additionally, Minnesota is 6-1 at home this season and Indianapolis is 2-4-1 on the road including a 54-19 loss at Dallas in their previous game. Yet, the Vikings are just a 4.0-point home favorite. However, despite their 10-3 record the Vikings have average 24.0 points scored and 24.1 points allowed per game. Yes, the Colts allowed 54 points to Dallas in their previous outing, but more had to do with them committing 5 turnovers than shoddy defensive play. As a matter fact, the Cowboys outgained the Colts by only 73 yards in that 35-point win. Minnesota is coming off a loss of their own by a score of 34-23 at Detroit. NFL non-division away underdogs like Indianapolis who are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing a team like Minnesota who is coming off a SU loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-0 ATS since 1983. What’s even more astonishing is those away underdogs also went an incredible 19-3 SU in those contests. The average line in those 22 games was 6.3. Give me Indianapolis plus the points. |
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12-16-22 | Florida Gulf Coast v. St Bonaventure -3 | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida Gulf Coast @ St. Bonaventure 7:00 ET Game# 1645-1646 Play On: St. Bonaventure -3.0 (5*) The last true road game that FGCU played was on 12-4 and they were blown out by 32 points by Florida Atlantic. Additionally, since 2020, FGCU is 0-6 SU&ATS as an away/neutral site underdog of 6.0 or less and lost by an average of 12.3 points per game. Conversely, St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Bonnies average line in those 5 home games was -7.2. Give me St. Bonaventure minus the points. |
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12-16-22 | Troy -120 v. UTSA | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 77 h 43 m | Show | |
Troy vs. UTSA 3:00 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Troy -120 (5*) Both teams enter this Cure Bowl at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida on 10-game win streaks. Each team has been tremendous offensively as well. Troy has scored 34 points or more in 3 straight contests and won on each occasion by 18 points or more. UTSA has scored 34 points or more in 5 consecutive games. The difference in this contest will come down to the Troy defense being better than the stop unit of UTSA. Troy has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 13 games this season. The most the Trojans defense allowed was 28 points to Ole Miss in their season opener. Conversely, UTSA has allowed 30 points or more 6 times in 2022. College Football teams like Troy playing after Game 9 who are a pick or favorite of 4.0 or less, coming off 3 consecutive wins by 17 points or greater, and they have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus a team like UTSA who scored 31 points or more in each of its previous 2 games, resulted in those teams like Troy going 18-2 SU (90%) and 17-3 ATS (85%) since 1990. Give me Troy on the money line. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 43 | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Seattle 8:15 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Over 43.0 (5*) Seattle has scored 23 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Rookie running back Kenneth Walker returns to the lineup from injury tonight which will add more juice to the Seahawks offense. The Seattle defense has endured its fair share of struggles over their last 3 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 407.7 yards per game. All 3 contests played over the total with a combined average of 59.3 points scored per game. Seattle has also played 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 at home versus San Francisco. The 49ers have played 6-3 to the over in their previous 9 contests and that includes 4-1 over if the total was 45.0 or less. San Francisco has scored 33 and 35 points while gaining 404 and 451 yards during its last 2 games. NFL away favorites of 3.5 or less like San Francisco that have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 with all coming as a favorite, and they scored 32 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those game playing 12-0 to the over since 2006. Those 12 contests averaged a combined 59.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-14-22 | UCLA v. Maryland -120 | 87-60 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Maryland -120 (5*) UCLA @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Maryland -120 (5*) Maryland is coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee by 3 on a neutral floor and at Wisconsin by 2. That dropped their season record to a still stellar 8-2. Now the Terrapins return home to face an experienced and highly touted UCLA team which travels across 3 time zones for the non-conference matchup. The Terps are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while winning by an average of 17.4 points per game. |
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12-13-22 | Pelicans -125 v. Jazz | 100-121 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Utah 9:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: New Orleans -125 (5*) These teams have been headed on opposite paths in recent weeks. Utah is a dismal 3-8 in their last 11 games. On the other hand, New Orleans is 12-2 in their previous 14 and that includes a current 7-game win streak. New Orleans has scored 128 and 129 points in their last 2 games. Utah has allowed 115 points or more in each of their previous 5 games. NBA teams like New Orleans which have scored 125 points or more in each of its previous 2 games versus teams like Utah which have allowed 115 points or more in 3 or more consecutive contests, resulted in teams like New Orleans going an outstanding 24-5 SU (82.8%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. Give me New Orleans on the money line. |
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12-13-22 | Memphis v. Alabama -6.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Memphis @ Alabama 9:00 PM ET Game# 617-618 Play On: Alabama -6.5 (5*) Alabama is coming off a scintillating come from behind upset win at then #1 Houston in their previous game. It was right around this time a season ago when they knocked off a higher ranked Houston team at home and then followed that up with a 14-point upset loss at Memphis. They’re not about to fall in that same trap again. This isn’t a great shooting Alabama team but they’re relentless on the offensive glass while averaging 14 second chance possessions per game which ranks 4th in the country. According to KenPom, Memphis ranks 289th out of 363 Division 1 teams when it comes to defensive rebounding. They also are averaging 25 free throw attempts per contest. Additionally, the Crimson Tide rank 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and #12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Alabama has faced the 2th toughest schedule in the country thus far so they’re certainly battle tested. Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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12-12-22 | Patriots v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
New England @ Arizona 8:15 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Under 44.0 (5*) New England is coming off a 24-10 home loss to Buffalo and the game stayed under the totals of 43.5. New England has now seen 4 of their last 5 go under the total and with a combined average of 34.8 points scored per game. Conversely, Arizona is coming off a 25-24 home loss to the Chargers. This sets up an NFL totals betting angle which hasn’t lost since 2018 and is shown below. NFL teams like Arizona with a total of between 37.0 to 48.0 that are coming off a home loss, versus teams like New England that are coming off a home loss by 10 points or more and have at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those games playing 26-0 to the under since 2018. All 26 games produced a combined 41 points or less being scored. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Seattle -3.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 23-10 home win over a hapless Denver team which is now on current 0-4 and 1-8 losing runs. They were also the lowest scoring offensive team in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week as Seattle posses the #5 scoring offense in the NFL and they’ve averaged a lofty 28.6 points scored per game over their last 6 contests. Moreover, Carolina hasn’t won 2 consecutive games all season long. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off last week’s 27-23 road win over the Rams which improved their season record to 7-5. They’re tied with the Giants for the final NFC Wildcard spot and hold the tiebreaker over New York because they already beat them earlier this season. With the Giants facing Philadelphia (11-1) this week and considering this is a very winnable game for the Seahawks, it bodes well for Seattle playing with a high degree of urgency and desperation. Give me Seattle minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -130 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Detroit 4:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Detroit -130 (ML) (5*) Despite the Vikings winning 3 straight away games, they’re still an abysmal 2-16-1 SU as a division away pick or money line underdog when facing an opponent with a win percentage of .400 or better. The Vikings usually explosive offense finds itself in a mini slump. During their last 3 contests, the Vikings have averaged a mere 276.0 yards per game and a paltry 4.7 yards per offensive play. The Lions enter this matchup having gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS throughout their previous 5 games. The lone blemish being a 28-25 home loss to Buffalo (9-3) in a game they were a 9.5-point underdog, and which saw the Bills kick the game winning field goal with a mere 0:05 left to play. Detroit is coming off a convincing 40-14 home win over Jacksonville in their previous game. NFL home teams like Detroit that are playing after Game 11 with a win percentage of .400 to .490. and they’re coming off a home win by 10 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 33-6 (84.6%) since 1985. Give me Detroit on the money line. |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 41 | 36-22 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ Tennessee 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Under 41.0 (5*) Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing 40-14 loss at Detroit. Conversely, Tennessee is coming a 20-16 home loss versus Cincinnati and a 35-10 defeat at Philadelphia during its last 2 games played. NFL teams like Jacksonville that allowed 35 points or more in their previous contest, versus teams like Tennessee who scored 17 points or fewer in each of its previous 2 games, and there’s a total of between 39.5 and 44.5, resulted in those games playing 15-1 (93.8%) to the under since 2018. Furthermore, if it was a divisional matchup, then this NFL totals betting angle improves to 7-0 under, and there was just a combined average of 30.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-11-22 | Texans v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Houston @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Under 44.5 (5*) Houston enters this week on a 7-game losing streak. They’ve also seen each of its last 4 stay under the total and with a combined average of just 39.7 points scored per game. Houston has scored only 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 6 games. The Texans will be facing a Dallas defense that over its last 3 has allowed a mere 14.0 points and 264.0 yards per game. Those Dallas defensive numbers certainly don’t bode well for Houston’s hopes of snapping out of a prolonged stretch of being anemic offensively. Additionally, Houston’s defense has played much better than their 26.0 points per game allowed over their previous 4 would indicate. They were put in precarious and unfavorable positions during that stretch due to their offensive teams committing 11 turnovers. NFL away teams (Houston) playing after Game 12 who are coming off 4 or more losses in a row, versus an opponent (Dallas) with a win percentage is .300, and the total is between 44.0 and 48.0, resulted in those contests playing a perfect 16-0 to the under since 2013. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-10-22 | UAB v. West Virginia OVER 153 | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
UAB @ West Virginia 6:00 PM ET Game# 691-692 Play On: Over 153.0 (5*) There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints. |
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12-10-22 | Kansas v. Missouri OVER 152.5 | 95-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Missouri 5:15 PM ET Game# 683-684 Play On: Over 152.5 (5*) There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints. |
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12-10-22 | Xavier v. Cincinnati OVER 149.5 | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Xavier @ Cincinnati 3:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: Over 149.5 (5*) There’s no analysis on Saturday 12/10 college basketball due to time constraints. |
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12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 224.5 | 106-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Dallas 10:05 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Over 224.5 (4*) Dallas has seen 5 of its lasty 6 go over the total. The average total in those 6 contests was 222.4 and there was a combined 236.2 points scored game. During that exact 6-game stretch, Dllas has averaged 120.5 points scored per contest and shot 49.1% from the field. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Dallas has shot a red-hot 41.7% from 3-point territory and average an enormous 19 three-point makes per game. Since the start of last season, Milwaukee has played 26-13 to the over when facing non-conference opponents and with a combined average of 233.1 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Bucks have played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 this season versus non-conference opponents and there was a combined average of 242.5 points scored per game. Milwaukee defeated Dallas 124-115 back on 11/27 and that game easily went over the total of 216.0. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-09-22 | Grambling State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 138 | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Grambling @ Vanderbilt 7:00 PM ET Game# 693-694 Play On: Under 138.0 (5*) This is a better Grambling team that most would recognize. They’ve already has upset wins over Colorado by 9 and UTSA by 20. During it’s last 4 games, Grambling has held their opponents to a combined average of only 51.5 points per contest and a mere 31.6% shooting. Grambling has also witnessed their last 6 all going under the total with a combined average of only 124.1 points scored per game. Vanderbilt went over the total in their previous game versus Pittsburgh. The Commodores have played 4-0 to the under this season following an over in their previous contest and there was only a combined 120.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-08-22 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -6.5 | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rutgers @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 873-874 Play On: Ohio State -6.5 (5*) Rutgers is coming off a home upset win versus #14 Indiana. Now they go on the road to face #25 Ohio State who is 4-0 at home and outscored those opponents by an average of 30.8 points per game. During their last 3 contests which included games versus Texas Tech and Duke, Ohio State averaged 82.7 points scored per game while shooting an excellent 50.3% from the floor. The Buckeyes are also 5th best nationally from the charity stripe converting 79.1% of its free throw attempts this season. Ohio State doesn’t beat themselves and especially so of late as they’ve committed an average of only 7.8 turnovers per contest throughout its previous 5 games. Give me Ohio State minus the points. |
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12-08-22 | Marshall v. Duquesne OVER 152 | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Marshall @ Duquesne 7:00 PM ET Game# 871-872 Play On: Over 152.0 (5*) Since Dan D’Antoni has taken over as head coach at Marshall, his teams have consistently played at a frenetic pace. As a matter of fact, this season’s Thundering Herd squad averages 72 field goal attempts and 83.7 points scored per game. Marshall averages just 14.7 seconds (5th nationally) per offensive possession and shoots 47% from the field. The Thundering Herd has scored 82 points or more in 7 of 8 games this season. Duquesne is ranked #53 out of 363 Division team in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 108.7 points per 100 possessions. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Duquesne has averaged 78.6 points scored per game, shot 48%, and converted on an excellent 41.4% of their 3-point shot attempts. This game has all the ear marks of a high scoring game played at a lightning-fast offensive pace. I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if these teams to score a combined 160 points or more. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-07-22 | Dayton v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | 49-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Dayton @ Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET Game# 691-692 Play On: Virginia Tech -6.5 (5*) This is a Dayton teams that had lofty expectations heading into this season and was even rated in the Top 25 preseason AP Poll. However, they're off to a disappointing 5-4 start which includes 0-4 SU&ATS in games not played at home. Virginia Tech is a sneaky good team and has posted a stellar 8-1 record. The Hokies are coming off a statement win by 8 over North Carolina who was ranked #1 earlier this season. Virginia Tech will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season's 62-57 loss at Dayton. Give me Virginia Tech minus the points. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +3 v. Texas | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Illinois @ Texas 7:00 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Illinois +3.0 (5*) We have #2 Texas as just a short favorite versus a 2-loss Illinois team. That line tells me most of what I need to know. Illinois’ 2 losses came at the hands of #3 Virginia (7-0) by 9 and at #13 Maryland (8-0) by 5. They also own a win over #19 UCLA in which they overcame a 15-point 2nd half deficit. The strength of schedule meter that I use indicates that Illinois is +4.5 over Texas. Anything +4.0 or greater is significant in a game between Power Conference teams and must be accounted for when handicapping College Basketball. Give me Illinois plus the points. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay 8:15 PM ET Game#477-478 Play On: Under 41.0 (5*) These NFC South rivals have seen 4 of their last 5 meetings go under the total. Furthermore, the last 9 times these teams have met in Tampa saw those games play 8-1 to the under with a combined average of 37.9 points scored per contest. Tampa Bay is has witnessed 6 of its last 7 and includes each of their previous 3 games stay under the total. New Orleans has played 4-1 to the under in their last 5 with just a combined average of 30.8 points scored per game. The Saints are coming off an away underdog 13-0 loss at San Francisco and failed to cover as an 8.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay is coming off a 23-17 loss at Cleveland. NFL away underdogs with a total of 38.5 or greater that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they were shutout, versus an opponent coming off a loss, resulted in those contests playing 7-0 to the under since 1980, and there was a combined average of only 28.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-05-22 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 227.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
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12-05-22 | Thunder +6.5 v. Hawks | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
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12-05-22 | Clippers v. Hornets +4.5 | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | Colts v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | 19-54 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show | |
Colts @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Under 44.5 (5*) The Colts have played 9-3 to the under this season. That includes 7-0 to the under if the total was 42.0 or greater and there was just a combined 32.1 points per game. The Colts offense has been anemic all season while averaging just a paltry 15.8 points scored per game. Conversely their defense has been great this season while allowing 20.3 points and 308.9 yards per game. Considering how they’ve had little support from an offense that has struggle to sustain drives, shows the resiliency, character, and talent on that side of the ball. Dallas is #2 in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game and #6 in total defense at 309.6 yards allowed per contest. The Cowboys are also #1 against the pass while allowing at 177.7 yards per game. The Cowboys offense will be up against a Colts defense which is #5 against the pass (190.6 YPG) and #2 in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bengals +2.5 (5*) Some will make be a big deal about the revenge factor after Cincinnati knocked of Kansas City twice last season. As a matter of fact, one of the Bengals wins occurred in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. I’ll take the opposite approach and say Cincinnati has the confidence it can beat arguably the most dominant team in the AFC over the past 4 seasons. The Bengals are 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-division home games. They’re also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact role dating back to last season. Cincinnati is currently riding a 3-game win streak with the last 2 of those victories. coming in away games. NFL regular season home underdogs of 3.0 or less that are coming off 3 or more wins in a row with the last 2 coming in away games, and they possess a win percentage of .562 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs of 3.0 or less going a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS. Give me the Bengals plus the small number. |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*) Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 3:00 PM ET Game# 761-762 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) There’s no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | St. John's v. Iowa State -6 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
St. John’s @ Iowa State 3:00 PM ET Game# 757-758 Play On: Iowa State -6.0 (5*) There’s no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | South Alabama v. UAB OVER 151 | 68-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
South Alabama @ UAB 2:00 PM ET Game# 745-746 Play On: Over 151.0 (5*) There’s no analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Jets +3.0 (5*) This is another line that jump right off the screen at me, and it hasn’t budged all week. The NFL North Division leading Vikings (9-2) as only a 3.0-point favorite against an upstart Jets team (7-4). Public perception will clearly lean toward the Vikings. However, public perception is wrong more times than right. NFL road teams in regular season action Games 12 through 17 who have a point-spread parameter of +3.0 to 2.5 (Jets) and are coming off a home win by 21 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .538 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) with a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2015. The average victory margin came by 8.8 points per game. It’s a rare but perfect NFL betting angle which makes sense as it applies and aligns to my opening line. |
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12-04-22 | Commanders -130 v. Giants | 20-20 | Push | 0 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Giants 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Commanders -130 (5*) Washington has started to roll after a poor 1-4 start. The Commanders have won 6 of its last 7 heading into this NFC East matchup at the Meadowlands on Sunday. Despite still be behind New York in the NFC East standings, the oddsmakers have made them a road favorite in this spot. That in itself tells me a lot of what I need to know. The Giants are coming off a 28-20 loss at Dallas in their previous game. That dropped the Giants season record to 7-4 (.636). NFL division money favorites (Commanders) versus an opponent (Giants) coming off a division away loss and they have a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those division favorites going 23-2 (88%) SU since 2018. Give me the Commanders on the money line. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*) North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State. Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value. Give me Clemson minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*) Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002. College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980. Give me Purdue plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia -17.5 | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*) Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover. Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests. Give me Georgia minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*) These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch. Give me Fresno State plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*) Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages. Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer. College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Troy minus the points. |