Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*) Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages. Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer. College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Troy minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 61.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Kansas State vs. TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Over 61.5 (5*) Kansas State enters this Big 12 Conference Championship Game red-hot offensively. Throughout their previous 5 contests Kansas State averaged 40.2 points scored and 449.8 yards gained per game. Despite their 12-0 record, TCU has allowed an average of 385.6 yards per game this season. The Horned Frogs have also given up 24 points or greater in 8 of its last 10 games. Nonetheless, TCU has scored 34 points or more in 10 of its 12 games. When facing Kansas State earlier this season, TCU overcame a 28-10 deficit to win 38-28 and the game went under the total of 70.0. The sportsbooks have made a substantial adjustment to the total the 2nd time around, and as a result creates betting value on the over. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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12-02-22 | Gonzaga -2.5 v. Baylor | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Gonzaga @ Baylor 8:00 PM ET Game# 879-880 Play On: Gonzaga -2.5 (5*) Baylor is coming off a humiliating 26-point loss at unranked Marquette in their previous game in a game they opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Well, I faded them in that game and have no problem doing it again in this spot. What was more alarming for me in that blowout defeat is that the Bears allowed Marquette to shoot 58%. They also allowed Norfolk State and Virginia to shoot 50% or better in games earlier this season. Early returns tell me that this may be the poorest Baylor defensive team since Scott Drew became their head coach. That will surely be an issue tonight versus a Gonzaga team that shoots 51% from the field and has converted on 40% of its 3-point shot attempts thus far in the season. Gonzaga is off to a 5-2 start to the season against an extremely difficult schedule. Their only 2 losses came against #1 Texas and #5 Purdue. However, they also own quality wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, and Xavier. Give me Gonzaga minus the small number. |
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12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -8.5 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*) UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action. Give me UTSA minus the points. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ New England 8:15 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Under 43.5 (5*) Since the start of last season, Buffalo has played 9-2 to the under as a road favorite. Furthermore, during that identical time span, if they were a road favorite of 5.5 or less, they went to 5-0 under with a combined average of 40.6 points scored. Buffalo is coming off last Thursday’s 28-25 win at Detroit in a game they failed to cover as a 9.0-point favorite in a game, and that final score stayed under the total of 54.0. Despite Buffalo’s explosive offense this season, the Bills have played 6-0 to the under in true road games this season New England has played 3-0 to the under this season when facing division opponents with a combined average of only 26.3 points scored per game Since the start of last season, NFL Thursday away favorites with a total of 52.0 or less have played 9-1 to the under with a combined average of 36.5 points scored per contest. Buffalo has played New England 7 times since 2019 and they held them to just 17.4 points per game. NFL road teams with a total of 43.0 to 49.0 that are coming off a favorite of 10.5 or less ATS loss but SU win, and they’re facing a division opponent that allowed 16 points or more in their previous contest, resulted in those games playing 25-2 (93%) to the under since 2011. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton v. Texas OVER 140 | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Creighton @ Texas 7:00 PM ET Game# 751-752 Play On: Over 140.0 (5*) Both teams like to play at a faster tempo which is evidenced by each of them averaging 61 field goal attempts per game. Creighton has averaged 83.9 points scored per game thus far while shooting a red-hot 51.2% from the floor and has converted on a stellar 38.2% of their 3-point shot attempts. The Blue Jays have already played the likes of #4 Arizona, #11 Arkansas, and a very stingy defensive team in Texas Tech. So, it’s not like they’re amassing these impressive offensive numbers playing cream puffs. They will be facing #2 Texas (5-0) today and the Longhorns are averaging 82.2 points scored per game have shot a terrific 50.3% from the field. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers +4.5 v. Kings | 114-137 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Indiana +4.5 (5*) Sacramento put together a 7-game win streak this season and it was their longest unbeaten run since 2004. However, since that time, the Kings have gone 0-3 SU&ATS and were outscored by 10.7 points per game. Indiana has gone 12-3 ATS throughout their previous 15 contests and won 11 of those games straight up. The Pacers are also 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 away games. NBA teams that have covered 12 or more of their previous 15 games and are playing in its 8th game or more over the past 14 days, resulted in those teams going 26-6 ATS (81.2%) since 2018. Give me the Indiana Pacers plus the points. |
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11-30-22 | North Carolina v. Indiana -4 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Indiana 9:15 PM ET Game# 719-720 Play On: Indiana -4.0 (5*) Up until this lates AP Poll came out on Monday, North Carolina has been ranked #1. Subsequently, after a pair of losses in each of their previous 2 games to Alabama and Iowa State the Tar Heels plummeted all the way down to #18. On the other hand, #10 Indiana is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS thus far while outscoring those opponents by an enormous 29.5 points per game. The Hoosiers have been dynamic offensively while averaging 88.8 points scored per game and have shot a scalding hot 55.9% from the field while doing so. Give me Indiana minus the points. |
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11-30-22 | Ohio State v. Duke -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Duke 7:15 PM ET Game# 675-676 Play On: Duke -5.0 (5*) Duke is off to what many consider a disappointing 6-2 start to the season. However, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home with an average victory margin of 31.3 points per game. We also must keep in mind that the Blue Devils 2 losses came versus #5 Purdue (6-0) and #9 Kansas (6-1). Duke will be facing a #25 Ohio State team (5-1) coming off impressive wins over Texas Tech and Cincinnati in their last 2 games. Nevertheless, this will be the Buckeyes first true road game of the season and it comes at one of the toughest environments to play at in the country. Give me Duke minus the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -3 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State @ Saint Bonaventure 7:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Saint Bonaventure -3.0 (5*) MTSU is 0-2 SU&ATS in true road games this season which came against Winthrop and Missouri State while losing by an average of 16.0 points per contest. The Bonnies enter tonight’s game having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 and won by an average of 13.0 points per game. They’re also 3-0 SU&ATS at home thus far with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. St. Bonaventure has shot a blistering hot 40.2% from beyond the 3-point line throughout their previous 5 games. The Bonnies are a substantial +5.1 over MTSU on my strength of schedule meter. Give me Saint Bonaventure minus the points. |
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11-29-22 | Virginia v. Michigan +4 | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Michigan 9:30 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Michigan +3.5 (3*) #3 Virginia (5-0) is as good as advertised. They’ve already defeated #6 Baylor and #16 Illinois. If this were a 7-game playoff series, I would take Virginia in a heartbeat. However, it’s not, and in a 1-game early season situation I deem the home underdog Wolverines to possess ample betting value. By the way, since the start of last season, Michigan has gone 9-1 SU at home when playing their 2nd game over a 7-day period. Give me Michigan plus the points. |
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11-29-22 | Baylor v. Marquette +6.5 | 70-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Marquette 8:30 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Marquette +6.5 (3*) This will be Baylor’s first true road game of the season. They certainly will be exposed to a hostile environment tonight. Marquette is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season with an average winning margin of 21.2 points per game. Marquette’s only 2 losses this season came at #5 Purdue (5-0) by 5 and versus Mississippi State (7-0) on a neutral floor. Give me Marquette plus the points. |
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11-29-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Duquesne -3.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
UCSB @ Duquesne 7:00 PM ET Game# 605-606 Play On: Duquesne -3.5 (3*) Duquesne enters this contest with a 5-1 record with their lone defeat coming at #16 Kentucky. Since that defeat Duquesne have won 4 straight and by an average victory margin of 12.3 points per game. UCSB is 4-1 but they’ve done so against a much weaker schedule than Duquesne has faced thus far. As a matter of fact, their lone loss came against Northern Arizona in a game they closed as a 9.0-point home favorite. Give me Duquesne minus the points. |
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11-28-22 | Sam Houston State +4.5 v. Nevada | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Sam Houston State @ Nevada 10:00 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: Sam Houston State +4.0 (5*) Sam Houston State has already posted away win over Oklahoma and Utah. So, they won’t have a deer in the headlights look tonight in Reno. Sam Houston has a perfect 6-0 record thus far and allowed 55 points or fewer in each game. Since last season began, Sam Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS immediately after allowing 65 points or less in each of their previous 7 contests, and they won by an average of 15.9 points per game. During their 4 games this season versus Division 1 teams, Sam Houston forced an enormous 19 turnovers per contest and had a +7.0 rebound per game differential. Give me Sam Houston State plus the points. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis 8:15 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Indianapolis -2.0 (5*) Pittsburgh is coming off a 37-30 division home loss to Cincinnati in their previous game. That defeat dropped the Steelers season record to 3-7 (.300). Any NFL team (Colts) that’s +2.5 to -2.5, versus an opponent (Steelers) with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 7 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Indianapolis going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory came by 7.8 points per game. Give me Indianapolis minus the small number. |
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11-27-22 | Rams v. Chiefs -15 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Chiefs 15.0 (5*) The Rams are reeling right now. They’ll be without their starting quarterback Mathew Stafford and all-pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp who will be sidelined by injuries. Los Angeles limps into this contest on a 4-game losing streak in which they were 0-3-1 ATS as well. The Chiefs offense is peaking right now. They have accounted for 319 yards or more passing in each of their previous 5 games. Kansas City’s offense has also amassed 486 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 3 games. NFL home favorites of 10.5 or more with a winning record, versus teams with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that enter a contest on a on 2 or more game losing streak, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 20-0 ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by an enormous 24.0 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers -9 | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Saints @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: 49ers -9.0 (5*) New Orleans is coming off a 27-20 home win over banged up and struggling Rams team. However, the Saints have failed to win 2 games in a row all season and are 0-3 SU&ATS following a victory. New Orleans is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games. San Francisco is coming off a 38-10 blowout win over Arizona and has the look of a team that’s primed for an extremely strong finish to their regular season slate. The 49ers defense has been tremendous in 9 of their 10 games played with the only exception coming against Kansas City who is arguably the NFL’s best offensive team. As a matter of fact, the 49ers are #1 in total defense while allowing a mere 283.9 yards per game, #3 in scoring defense at 17.3 points per contest, and has amassed the 4th most sacks at 32. |
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11-27-22 | Chargers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Over 48.0 (5*) The Chargers enter this week on a 2-game losing streak. Since 2020, the Chargers have played 5-0 to the over immediately following a 2-game losing streak and there was a combined average of 56.6 points scored per contest. Los Angeles is coming off a disheartening 30-27 home loss to division rival Kansas City and that contest went over the total of 53.0. Arizona has gone over the total in each of its previous 5 contests and with a combined average of 56.0 points scored per game. The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing 38-10 division loss to San Francisco which marked their 3rd defeat in the last 4 games which dropped their season record to 4-7 (.636). Arizona has played 5-0 to the over at home since 2020 following a stretch in which they lost 3 of its previous 4 games. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 64.2 points per game. NFL teams after Game 8 with a total of 49.5 or less that are coming off a division loss by 3-points or fewer, and they allowed 20 or more points in their previous contest, versus teams with a win percentage of .545 or worse, resulted in those games playing 14-0 over the total since 2018. There was a combined average of 56.6 points scored per game during those 14 occurrences. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*) Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-26-22 | Louisville +3 v. Kentucky | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992. Give me Louisville plus the small number. |
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11-26-22 | Akron v. Northern Illinois -10 | 44-12 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*) College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest. Give me Northern Illinois minus the points. |
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11-26-22 | Coastal Carolina v. James Madison -14 | 7-47 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*) I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week. Give me James Madison minus the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Iowa 4:00 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Iowa -10.5 (10*) Nebraska is 0-5 in their last 5 games and scored 14 or less on 4 of those occasions. Iowa is a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and allowed 13 points or less in all 4 of those games while also recording a turnover differential of +7. As a matter of fact, the Hawkeyes have allowed 13 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. Iowa has defeated Nebraska 7 straight times. College Football conference home favorites of 10.5 to 17.5 that are coming off a conference win by 48 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Nebraska) coming off a loss by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those conference home favorites withing the above stated point-spread going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 2006. Give me Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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11-25-22 | Duke -4.5 v. Xavier | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*) Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game. Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-25-22 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -115 | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Tulane @ Cincinnati 12:00 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Cincinnati -115 (5*) College Football home teams that are +7.5 to -21.5 (Cincinnati) playing after Game 4 who possess a win percentage of .800 or better, and they are coming off conference wins in each of their previous 2 games played, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those teams going 44-4 SU (91.7%) since 2018. Give me Cincinnati on the money line. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Game# 107-108 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*) Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements. Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game. |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Buffalo 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Under 54.5 (5*) Buffalo has garnered the reputation as being one of the best offenses in recent seasons. As a matter of fact, this season the Bills are #2 in both total offense and scoring offense with only Kansas City being better. Nonetheless, the Bills have played 5-0 to the under in true road games this season with a combined average of 41.0 points scored per game. Additionally, the Bills are also #5 in scoring defense despite their secondary being ravaged with injuries. NFL teams like Buffalo with a total of 49.5 or greater that are playing after Game 8, and they scored and allowed 10 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (Detroit) with a losing record, resulted in those teams playing 36-9 (75%) to the under since 2017. Here’s another NFL totals betting angle which is applicable to this matchup. Since 1980, NFL teams like Buffalo that are favorites of 9.0 or greater and with a total of 51.0 or more resulted in those contests playing 17-1 (94.4%). Give me this game to go under the total. |
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11-23-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +2 | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Indiana +2.0 (5*) Indiana enters this contest having gone 8-2 SU&9-1 ATS during its previous 10 games played and that includes a current 5-game unbeaten streak. During this 5-game winning streak the Pacers have held opponents to a mere 40.9% shooting and 30.1 from 3-point territory while outscoring them by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Pacers will be up to the challenge against a Minnesota team which is also on a win streak of 4-games. Give me the Indiana Pacers. |
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11-23-22 | Kent State v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 72-74 | Push | 0 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET Game# 693-694 Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*) Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests. Give me Charleston minus the small number. |
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11-22-22 | UL - Lafayette +1.5 v. SMU | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ SMU 8:30 PM ET Game# 615-616 Play On: UL-Lafayette +1.5 (5*) SMU has traditionally had a strong home court over the last couple of decades. However, here they are as a short 3.5-point favorite against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. The Mustangs are off to a disappointing 2-2 start, and they’ve shot 35.9% or worse in each of their previous 3 games. Their 2 losses this season were by 21 at home versus New Mexico and by 12 at Dayton. UL-Lafayette is 4-0 and returns 4 starters from a season ago. They average 89.0 points scored per game while shooting 50.8% from the field and 41.4% from beyond the 3-point line. Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points. |
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11-22-22 | Liberty +3.5 v. Northwestern | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Northwestern 8:30 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Liberty +3.5 (5*) Northwestern is off to an encouraging 4-0 start to the season, and they won all those contests by 8-points or more. Yet, here they are as just a small favorite on a neutral floor versus a 2-2 Liberty team from the Atlantic Sun Conference. This one has trap play written all over it. Give me Liberty plus the points. |
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11-22-22 | Southern Indiana +6.5 v. St Bonaventure | 66-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Southern Indiana @ St. Bonaventure 7:00 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Southern Indiana +6.5 (5*) St. Bonaventure is still a team in transition after losing all 5 starters from a season ago. The Bonnies are 2-2 with losses to Canisius and South Dakota State. Their 2 wins both came by exactly 13 points over Bowling Green and St. Francis (Pa.) who aren’t exactly elite Division 1 programs. Don’t sleep on Southern Indiana. They enter this contest 2-2 with their losses coming at Notre Dame by 12 and at Missouri by 6. The silver linings in those losses, they covered both contests and showed they can be extremely competitive versus Power Conference teams. This is a team that has shot 50.4% from the field, 45.7% from 3-point territory, and in 3 games versus Division 1 opponents has a +1.0 rebound per game differential. Give me Southern Indiana plus the points. |
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11-21-22 | Knicks v. Thunder -130 | 129-119 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
New York @ Oklahoma City 6:30 PM ET Game# 743-744 Play On: Oklahoma City -130 (5*) New York will be playing in its 3rd road game in 4 days and lost the previous 2 by double-digit margins. Oklahoma City is coming off a 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS 4-game road trip and will be playing on 2 days rest this evening. Since the start of last season, OKC is 3-0 SU&ATS versus New York which includes a 145-135 win at Madison Square Garden a week ago Sunday. OKC has gone over the total in 6 consecutive games. New York has gone under the total in each of their previous 4 games. NBA money line favorites which have gone over the total in 6 or more consecutive games, versus opponents that have gone under the total in 3 or more consecutive games, resulted in those favorites going 41-4 (91.1%) SU since 1996. Give me Oklahoma City on the money line. |
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11-21-22 | Mercer +7 v. Florida State | 72-81 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Mercer @ Florida State 6:30 PM ET Game# 743-744 Play On: Mercer +7.0 (5*) Mercer is 2-2 with both losses coming by 2 points on each occasion. Florida State is 0-4 including home losses to Stetson and Troy. As a matter of fact, they were defeated at home by 9 versus archrival Florida in their previous game. Additionally, they blew a 17-point halftime lead in that contest and even failed to cover as a 7.0-point underdog. The Seminoles are -10 rebounds per game while Mercer is at +7 in the same category. Give me Mercer plus the points. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ LA Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Chargers +5.5 (5*) Kansas City has ruled the roost in the AFC West for several seasons. Although, the Chargers have enjoyed more success than most against them recently. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas City. They were also 2-3 SU in those contests and their 3 losses came by just a combined 12 points. Los Angeles should also receive a huge boost with the return of starting wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams from injuries. The Chargers offense takes on a whole other level when both players have been healthy and on the field at the same time. If the Chargers have any hope of realistically winning the AFC West Division, then this is a must-win game. At the very worse this goes right down to the wire which favors underdogs of better than a field goal. Personally, I believe the Chargers are full capable of pulling off the upset in this spot. Nevertheless, I won’t be greedy and take the points. Give me the LA Chargers plus the points. |
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11-20-22 | Kentucky v. Gonzaga -4 | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Gonzaga 7:30 PM ET Game# 689-690 Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (5*) |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -120 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dallas -120 (ML) (10*) This line jumped right off the board at me when it opened as a pick on Sunday night and quickly ascended to Dallas being a 1.5-point road favorite. Why did my reaction occur? Well, Minnesota is 8-1, Dallas 6-3, and it’s the home Vikings who come up underdog. It’s rarely as easy as it looks when it comes to sports betting, and this is a prime example of such. Most sports bettors would think it’s common sense to take the home underdog versus an opponent they are 2.0 games better than in the standings and especially so when it’s the 2nd half of a season. However, common sense is crucial in everyday life but usually loses you money in the long haul when applicable to sports wagering. Minnesota would have to lose the rest of their games to squander their NFC North Division lead, and even then, they still could possibly land on top. They’re also coming off what’s considered to be a statement win in overtime at Buffalo last Sunday. Unlike Dallas, their degree of urgency this Sunday will be much lower for Minnesota than that of the Cowboys in my professional opinion. It’s not an exact science when predicting who will be a more desperate team when it comes to NFL betting. Nonetheless, the human response element I expect from these teams on Sunday is more likely to occur in this situation. Currently, Dallas (6-3) is in 3rd place in the NFC East standing behind the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Giants. They have little room for error down the regular season stretch is they aspire to be the NFC East Division champ. So yes, their sense of urgency should and will probably be at a fever high pitch. Lastly, these teams have squared off in each of the previous 2 season, both were played at Minnesota, and Dallas won each SU as an underdog. Give me Dallas on the money line for my NFL 10* Game of the Year. |
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11-20-22 | Panthers v. Ravens -12.5 | 3-13 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Baltimore -12.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 25-15 home underdog SU win over Atlanta. NFL betting historu throughout the past 29 season has shown that double-digit road underdogs coming off a home underdog SU win don’t fare well at all in the following game. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 to 16.0 (Baltimore) that’s playing after Game 2, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off a home underdog upset win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter going 26-2 ATS (92.8%) since 1994. The home teams also won all 28 of those games SU and by an enormous average of 23.4 points per game. Give me Baltimore minus the double-digit number. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (5*) Atlanta is 3-2 at home this season and their 2 losses came by only a combined 4 points. Although the Falcons are an uninspiring 4-6 this season, they still only trail 1st place Tampa Bay by 1.0-game in the NFC South standing. The Falcons enter Sunday on it’s 2nd 2-game losing streak of the season. The last time that occurred, they followed it up with an impressive 27-23 win at Seattle (6-4) who currently is the NFC West Division leader. By the way, Chicago is 5-15 SU and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 away games. Give me Atlanta minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Blazers | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Utah @ Portland 10:10 PM ET. Game# 535-536 Play On: Utah +3.5 (5*) I usually don’t like taking teams like Utah that are playing with no rest versus an opponent who is. However, there’s an exception to every one of my tendencies and this is one of those spots. Portland is coming off last night’s 134-133 home win over Phoenix in a game they shot a scalding hot 56.0%. The Jazz are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they shot 50% or better and won by an average of 9.0-points per contest. This will be the first meeting of the season between these division rivals. The Jazz were 4-0 SU&ATS versus Portland last season and won by a substantial average of 26.5 points per game. Give me Utah plus the points. |
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11-19-22 | USC -119 v. UCLA | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
USC @ UCLA 8:00 PM ET Game# 391-392 Play On: USC -119 (10*) College Football away teams playing after Game 7 that are coming off a home win by 33 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a home loss, resulted in those road teams going 25-3 SU (89.2%) since 1984. Give me USC on the money line for my PAC-12 Game of the Year. |
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11-19-22 | Western Kentucky +5.5 v. Auburn | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Auburn 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Western Kentucky +5.5 This comes down to some fundamental college football handicapping principles. Auburn has endured a season to forget thus far and has lost 5 of its last 6 games. During their 3 wins versus FBS opponents this season they outscored their opponents by only a combined 14 points. Here’s the topper, up next for Auburn is a bitter rivalry game with Alabama. This is a text book flat spot for an already struggling Tigers team. Western Kentucky has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games and won 3 of those contests straight up. Their only 2 SU losses came by exactly 3 points at Indiana and at UTSA. During those 5 away contests, the Hilltoppers averaged 40.2 points scored and 494.6 yards per game. Give me Western Kentucky plus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Texas -9 v. Kansas | 55-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Texas -9.0 (5*) Any conference away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 with a win percentage of .44 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .285 or better, resulted in those away favorites going 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 2009. Give me Texas minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -7 | 26-28 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Duke @ Pittsburgh 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) College Football home favorites of 3.0 to 12.0 that are coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and have a win percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better coming off 3 consecutive wins with all versus conference opponents, resulted in those home favorites going 41-9 (82%) ATS since 1996. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Northwestern v. Purdue -17 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ Purdue 12:00 PM ET Game# 345-346 Play On: Purdue -17.0 (5*) College Football favorites of 13.0 to 20.0 with a winning record, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .250 or worse and is coming off 7 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those favorites going 19-0 ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by a substantial average of 29.8 points per game. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Connecticut @ Army 12:00 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Army -10.0 (5*) File this one in the just doesn’t make sense category. We have a UConn football program that’s been revived to relevance under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The Huskies are bowl eligible with a 6-5 record and are about to an Army team that’s an awful 1-6 this season versus FBS opponents. Yet, Army is a double-digit favorite over the upstart Huskies. Can you say contrarian pick? I certainly can just out of a matter of principle. Give me Army minus the points. |
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11-18-22 | San Diego State -14 v. New Mexico | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ New Mexico 9:45 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: San Diego State -14.0 (5*) San Diego State is 6-4 (.600) and is facing a New Mexico team who’s 2-8 (.200). Additionally, the Lobos have lost 7 consecutive games in a row heading into tonight, and they failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle listed below. During this 7-game New Mexico losing streak, they were outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game. San Diego State has won 8 straight over New Mexico. College Football away favorites of 13.0 to 21.5 with a winning record, versus opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’re coming off 6 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those road favorites going 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 2013. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-18-22 | Villanova v. Michigan State -6 | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Villanova @ Michigan State Game# 827-828 Play On: Michigan State -6.0 (5*) |
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11-18-22 | Florida -6.5 v. Florida State | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Florida @ Florida State 8:00 PM ET Game# 829-830 Play On: Florida -6.5 (5*) |
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11-18-22 | Indiana v. Xavier OVER 141.5 | 81-79 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Xavier Game# 813-814 Play On: Over 141.5 (5*) |
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11-17-22 | California Baptist +8.5 v. Washington | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Cal Baptist @ Washington 11:00 PM ET Game# 759-760 Play On: Cal Baptist +8.5 (5*) |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Green Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Green Bay -3.0 (5*) You may be wondering how 6-3 (.666) Tennessee is an underdog versus a Packers team with an uninspiring 4-6 (.400) record. Well, look inside the numbers and you’ll find that Green Bay despite their losing record has outgained their opponents by an average of 32.0 yards per game. Conversely, Tennessee is somehow 3 games above .500 despite being outgained 76.0 yards per game. The Titans also average a paltry 281.7 yards of total offense per game on the season. We must also keep in mind, that Green Bay is 24-3 in their last 27 home games and that includes 14-0 if after Game 6. The Packers are averaging an impressive 35:17 in time of possession in their 4 home games this season. The Packers are coming off a momentum building 31-28 home overtime win over Dallas in a game they overcame a 14-point 4th quarter deficit. NFL favorites of 9.5 or less that are coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .428 or better, resulted in those favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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11-17-22 | Davidson v. College of Charleston -3 | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Davidson @ Charleston 7:30 PM ET Game# 767-768 Play On: Charleston -3.0 (5*) |
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11-17-22 | North Dakota State v. Indiana State -11.5 | 75-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
North Dakota State @ Indiana State 7:00 PM ET Game# 725-726 Play On: Indiana State -11.5 (5*) |
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11-16-22 | Knicks v. Nuggets -3.5 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
New York @ Denver 10:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Denver -3.5 (5*) The Nuggets will be without star center Nikola Jokic tonight. However, the line as been adjusted accordingly for his absence. Denver is 5-1 in their last 6 and will be playing on 2 days rest. Their only loss in that sequence came against an 11-3 Boston team who is currently on a 7-game win streak. New York is coming off last night’s 118-111 win at Utah. The Knicks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 15.7 points per game. Give me Denver minus the points. |
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11-16-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Hawks | 126-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Boston @ Atlanta 7:40 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Boston -2.5 (5*) The red-hot Boston Celtics will enter this contest riding a 7-game win streak. They’ll be facing an Atlanta team coming off a 121-106 win at Milwaukee as a 4.5-point underdog. NBA road favorites versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a road underdog SU upset win by 10 points or more resulted in those road favorites going 50-11 SU since 2018, and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per contest. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, the SU results in this precise situation takes on added significance. Give me Boston minus the small number. |
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11-16-22 | Pacers +2.5 v. Hornets | 125-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Indiana +2.5 (5*) Charlotte is coming off a 112-105 win at Orlando in their previous game. The Hornets are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win and lost by 7.3 points per contest. Simply put, Charlotte hasn’t won 2 consecutive games so far in this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Hornets are also 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home. Conversely, Indiana is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and won 5 of those contests SU. Give me Indiana plus the small number. |
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11-15-22 | Nets v. Kings -125 | 121-153 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Brooklyn @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Sacramento -125 (ML) (5*) Sacramento started the season 0-4. Since then, they’ve gone 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while averaging 123.0 points scored per game and 52.0% shooting. The Kings have now scored 120 points or more in 4 of its last 5 games while making 38.5% of their 3-point shot attempts. Brooklyn will be playing their 3rd road games in 4 days. The Nets are coming off an extremely disappointing 116-103 loss at the Lakers in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That dropped their season record to 6-8. They’re also 1-5 SU this season versus non-conference opponents. NBA home favorites versus opponents coming a loss as a road favorite and they possess a win percentage of .400 to .490, resulted in those home teams going 34-5 SU (87.1%) and 32-7 ATS (82.1%) over the past 5 seasons. The home favorites outscored those 39 opponents by an average of 9.6 points per game. Give me Sacramento on the money line. |
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11-15-22 | NC-Wilmington +12.5 v. Oklahoma | 53-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
UNC-Wilmington @ Oklahoma 8:00 PM ET Game# 625-636 Play On: UNC-Wilmington +12.5 (5*) Wilmington accounted themselves very well in a 69-56 loss at #1 North Carolina in their season opener. They easily covered that contest as a 23.0-point underdog and were a +5 on the boards against a North Carolina team which has been one of the best nationally in rebounding during recent seasons. Conversely, Oklahoma has been unimpressive in their first 2 games of the season. The Sooner lost at home versus Sam Houston State as a 16.5-point favorite. They also had an uninspiring 8-point home win over Arkansas Pine Bluff but didn’t come close to covering as a 27.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this game go right down to the wire. Give me UNC-Wilmington plus the points. |
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11-14-22 | Stetson +8 v. South Florida | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Stetson @ South Florida 7:00 Game# 1643-1644 Play On: Stetson +8.0 (5*) Stetson is 1-0 and that victory came last Monday 83-74 at Florida State in a game they closed as an 18.0-point underdog. South Florida is 0-2 and that includes a 64-61 loss to Southeast Missouri State in a game they closed as an 11.0-point home favorite. The Bulls will once again be a squad that struggles to produce offensively which has been an unfortunate common trend for them in recent seasons. Give me Stetson plus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Cardinals +3 v. Rams | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
Arizona @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Arizona +3.0 (5*) This will be a meeting between teams that have played well below expectations thus far. The defending world champion Rams have scored 14 points or fewer in 5 of 8 games this season. Conversely, although Arizona hasn’t exactly accumulated an enormous number of total yards during its past 3 game, they have been extremely opportunistic. Case in point, during that previously mentioned 3- game stretch, Arizona has an excellent 1 point scored per every 10.8 yards gained ratio. It’s also worth noting, that since the start of last season, Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus opponents that average forcing 1.0 or less turnover per game. The Rams have forced just 8 turnovers in 8 games and 7 of those takeaways occurred in the first 2 weeks of the season. Give me Arizona plus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers +4.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Green Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Green Bay +4.5 (5*) Dallas looks like the sucker bet of the week. The Cowboys are coming off a bye week and their last game resulted in an impressive 49-29 home win over Chicago. On the flip side to this equation is a Green Bay team which has lost 5 straight and has looked pathetic offensively while doing so. However, only 1 of those 5 losses occurred at home. The fact remains, the Packers still possess an extremely strong home field, and couple that with being an underdog, equals betting value. How strong is their home field advantage? I’m glad you asked, Green Bay has gone 23-3 (.885) in their last 26 regular season home games. I’m taking the Lambeau Leap! Give me the Packers plus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Las Vegas -4.5 (5*) The Raiders are in a rare situation in which they’re coming off away favorite SU losses in each of their previous 2 games. NFL betting history on home favorites within the current point-spread parameter have done have never failed to cover in that rarified air. That’s been especially the case of those games took place in the 2nd half of the season. Furthermore, they’ll be facing a Colts team that’s gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and scored a pathetic 9.7 points per game. NFL home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 like Las Vegas that are coming off back-to-back away favorite SU losses, and they’re playing after Game 8, resulted in those favorites within those point-spread parameters going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory 11 contests came by a convincing 16.2 points per game. Give me Las Vegas minus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Browns +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 6 m | Show |
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*) Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL. Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer. Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ Kansas City 1:00 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Over 50.5 (5*) Jacksonville has played 4-0 to the over in true road games this season with a combined 48 points or more being scored on each occasion. Additionally, Kansas City has played 3-0 to the over this season when facing non-conference opponents and there was a combined 65 or more points being scored every time. Kansas City is ranked #1 in the NFL scoring while averaging 30.2 points scored per game. The Chiefs racked up 499 and 539 yards of total offense in their last 2 games played. Conversely, the Jacksonville offense has amassed 379 yards or more of total offense in 4 of their last 5 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Tampa Bay 9:30 AM ET Game# 241-242 Play On: Seattle +3.0 (5*) Seattle is coming off a 31-21 win over Arizona. The Seahawks have now gone a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those coming as an underdog. Conversely, Tampa Bay is coming off a 20-17 home win over the Rams. Prior to that victory, the Bucs were 0-3 SU&ATS in their previous 3 and 1-5 SU&ATS over its last 6. What was perceived to be a potent Tampa Bay offense before the season began has fizzled to the tune of scoring 22 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games. NFL teams like Seattle that are coming off a division SU win by 8 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tampa Bay) with a win percentage of .888 or less and coming off a home win by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 31-0 SU since 1993. If those teams were an underdog in those contests, they were 4-0 SU&ATS. The average point-spread in those 4 contests was 4.3 and the margin of victory came by a decisive 14.7 points per game. Give me Seattle plus the points. |
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11-12-22 | TCU v. Texas -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*) I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners. If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well. College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest. Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida OVER 59 | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida @ South Carolina 4:00 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Over 59.0 (5*) This game has the earmarks of a high scoring entertaining game. Florida has played 3-0 to the over in its previous 3 and with a combined average of 69.0 points scored per game. The Gators have also played 4-0 to the over this season if the total is 58.5 or greater when facing an FBS opponent. Those contests averaged a combined 64.3 points scored per game. The Gators defense has been awful for an extended stretch now after allowing 411 yards or more in 6 of its previous 7 games. The lone exception in that 7-game was versus Missouri and even then, they allowed 370 yards. South Carolina has played 11-1 to the over since 2020 in conference away game and there was a combined 63.1 points scored per contest. The Gamecock run defense has allowed 200 yards or more rushing in a game 4 times this season. That’s a huge concern for that unit since it will be facing a Florida team which average 210 yards rushing per game on a lofty 6.1 yards per attempt. South Carolina has seen both games versus Florida go over the total during the past 2 seasons. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-12-22 | Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Ole Miss 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Alabama -12.0 (5*) Alabama is 7-2 and coming off an upset loss at Tennessee in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Yet, here they are as a double-digit road favorite 7 days later versus #11 Ole Miss (8-1) with a lot to play for with regards to College Football Playoff aspirations. We need to think like an oddsmaker in this spot and go against public perception. Besides, since 2001, College Football away double-digit favorites that are coming off an away double-digit favorite upset loss, resulted in those teams going 8-1 ATS and 9-0. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 26.7 points per game. Roll Tide Roll! Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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11-12-22 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -17 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ Minnesota 3:30 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Minnesota -17.0 (5*) Northwestern has been offensively anemic this season while scoring just 16.7 points per games. That ranks #126 out of 131 teams playing Division 1 football. Conversely, Minnesota is #4 nationally in scoring defense and allows only 14.2 points per game. The Golden Gophers are also #16 nationally in rushing offense while Northwestern is an abysmal #112 defending the run. Not exactly an ideal matchup for a mightily struggling Northwestern team. After winning their season opener versus Nebraska, the Northwestern Wildcats have lost 8 consecutive games. Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins which has improved their season record to 6-3 (.667). This sets up an extremely profitable College Football betting angle displayed below. College Football favorites of 13.5 to 19.5-points with a winning record, facing opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’ve lost 6 or more consecutive games, resulted in those favorites going 26-4 ATS (86.6%) since 2013. The favorites were also a perfect 30-0 SU and won by an average of 238.1 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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11-12-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -120 | 38-31 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
UCF @ Tulane 3:30 PM ET Game# 169-170 Play On: Tulane -120 (5*) You can make a strong case that this is the biggest American Athletic Conference game that Tulane (8-1) has ever played. Tulane is 5-0 in AAC action while UCF come in at 4-1. Cincinnati is also right on their heels at 4-1. Currently, Tulane enters this week as the highest rated Group of 5 team and would be in line for a high-profile bowl game if they win out. The Green Wave is coming off last Saturday’s 27-13 win at Tulsa thus covering a 6.0-point favorite. They’re 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game. UCF is 1-1 conference road games with a win at Memphis last week 34-27 and a 34-13 blowout loss at East Carolina. The Golden Knights are 7-2 overall. College Football home teams with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 5 and coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a winning record, resulted in those home teams going 56-6 SU (90.3%) since 1998. In case you are wondering, the home teams also went 44-17-1 ATS (72.1%) as well. However, considering the pint-spread/money line in this contest, the SU results take on a great deal more of betting value. Give me Tulane on the money line. |
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11-11-22 | BYU v. San Diego State -10.5 | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
BYU @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: San Diego State -10.5 (5*) BYU narrowly escaped with a 60-56 win in their season opener versus Idaho State in a game they closed as a 23.5-point home favorite. The Cougars shot a poor 37.3% in that win. Not to mention the fact that BYU committed an alarming 23 turnovers as well. They’ll be facing a San Diego State team coming off a 80-57 home win versus UC-Fullerton. The Aztecs forced 18 turnovers in that victory while also shooting a blistering hot 53.8% from the field. San Diego State returns 4 starters from a season ago that will have plenty of revenge after losing to BYU in each of the last 2 season. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-11-22 | Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Ole Miss | 67-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
FAU @ Ole Miss 7:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: FAU +5.5 (5*) Ole Miss is coming off an uninspiring 73-58 home win over Alcorn State in their season opener and failed to cover as a 20.0-point favorite. That makes the Rebels a dismal 5-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season and with just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests. This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me with Ole Miss as just a 6.0-point home favorite versus a Conference USA team which has enjoyed little to no success in recent years. Give me FAU plus the points. |
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11-11-22 | NC-Greensboro +10.5 v. Miami-FL | 65-79 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
UNC-Greensboro @ Miami Fla. 7:00 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: UNC-Greensboro +10.5 (5*) Miami is coming off an unimpressive 67-54 win over Lafayette and didn’t come close to covering as a 26.5-point home favorite. Even more concerning is they shot just 37.2% in that game versus what should have been an overmatched Patriot League opponent. Miami has now gone and awful 5-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2020. They will be facing an experienced NC-Greensboro team that returns all 5 starters from a season ago. Give me UNC-Greensboro plus the points. |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
New Orleans @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Chicago +2.0 (5*) The Pelicans are averaging a robust a robust 118.5 points per game. However, they’ve gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and allowed 120 points or more on each occasion. Chicago is 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season. This will mark the first time that the Bulls will be hosting a non-conference opponent. They went 12-3 SU last season at home versus non-conference opponents. NBA teams like Chicago who are +3.0 to -3.0 who are playing before Game 42 and facing an opponent averaging 118.0 or more points scored per game, resulted in those home teams going 33-8 SU (81%) since 1996. Give me Chicago plus the small number. |
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11-09-22 | Pistons v. Celtics OVER 226 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Over 226.0 (5*) Boston is coming off a 109-106 win at Memphis in their previous outing and that game went under the total of 231.0. Nonetheless, the Celtics have played 3-0 to the over this season following an under in their previous contest and there was a combined average of 242.7 points scored per game. Boston has also played 3-1 to the over at home thus far with a combined average of 236.5 points scored per game. The flip side to that equation is the fact they also allowed 115.6 points per game during those 4 contests. They’ll be facing a Detroit Pistons team that is 0-5 SU on the road while allowing an alarmingly high 120.0 points per game. The Pistons saw both games at Boston a season ago going over the total. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +6 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Denver @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Indiana +6.0 (5*) The Pacers began this season by losing 4 of its first 5 game. Since then, they’ve gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS with all those Pacers results coming as an underdog. Denver is 7-3 but just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. This contest has the earmarks of a close game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Indiana walk off with another SU underdog win. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and proceed to take the points being given to us. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Toledo 8:00 PMET Game# 105-106 Play On: Toledo -11.0 (5*) Toledo is coming off a 27-24 road win at Eastern Michigan. Ball State is coming off a 27-20 win at Kent State in a game they closed as a +6.5 underdog. This sets up an exceptional College Football betting angle displayed below. College Football home favorites of 9.5 to 23.5 (Toledo) that aren’t undefeated and they’re coming off a road win, versus an opponent (Ball State) with a win percentage of .636 or less who is coming off a conference win as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 25-2 ATS (92.5%) since 2005. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints OVER 46 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ New Orleans 8:15 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Over 46.0 (5*) New Orleans has quietly put up some impressive offense number throughout its previous 4 games. During that stretch, they’ve averaged 31.0 points scored and 422.0 yards gained per game. The Saints have seen 4 of their last 5 go over the total with an average combined score of 56.0 points per game. During their last 3 road contests, Baltimore has averaged 28.0 points scored and 417.7 yards gained per game. The Ravens have played 11-1 to the over with John Harbaugh as their head coach in non-conference away games when both the Ravens and their opponents scored 31 points or fewer in their previous game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*) This is a battle of 2 NFC teams who are off to extremely disappointing starts to the season. Keep in mind, these teams are the last 2 Super Bowl winners. The good news, barring a push, 1 of these teams will get an ATS cover. The Rams are coming off a last Sunday’s 31-14 loss to their bitter rival San Francisco 49ers which dropped their season record to 3-4 (.428). The Rams offense has been ineffective over its last 4 contests while averaging only 14.3 points scored and 290.1 yards gained per game. Tampa Bay has gone a shocking 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in their previous 6. They enter this week with a vastly underachieving 3-5 record. However, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense have still generated an impressive 306.8 yards per game passing throughout their previous 5 contests. The Buccaneers will also be out to revenge a 30-27 home loss to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round this past January. NFL favorites playing after Game 7, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) with a win percentage of .400 to .490 that’s coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 17-1 SU&ATS (94.4%) since 2013. Give me Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 49 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Seattle @ Arizona 4:05 Game# 467-468 Play On: Over 49.0 (10*) Seattle has seen each of their previous 3 away games go over the total and there was an enormous average of 74.7 points per contest. Seattle is coming off a 27-13 home win over the New York Giants which has improved their season record to 5-3 (.625). Arizona has seen its last 2 go over the total with a combined average of 68.0 points scored per contest. The Cardinals are coming off last week’s 34-26 loss at Minnesota and they now find themselves with an uninspiring 3-4 (.375) season record. Since 2016, NFL teams with a total of 47.5 or greater who are playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a home win by 13 or more points in which they scored 48 points or fewer, and their win percentage is between .600 to .750, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better (Arizona), resulted in those games playing 32-7 (82%) to the over. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Washington 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Washington +3.0 (5*) Minnesota is coming off last Sunday’s 34-26 home win over Arizona. Washington is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 which includes last week’s upset win as an underdog at Indianapolis. NFL home underdogs of 3.5 or less (Washington) playing after Game 6 who have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3, and their previous win came as an underdog, and they’re facing an opponent (Minnesota) coming off a SU win, resulted in this home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 1981. The underdogs also went 15-1 SU in those contests. Give me Washington plus the points. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game#461-462 Play On: LA Chargers -3.0 (5*) The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 9 of the season sitting atop the NFC South standings with a 4-3 record. Yet, they’re a home underdog against a Chargers team which has an identical 4-3 record. The Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air with ease in this matchup. The Chargers are #4 in pass offense through 8 weeks while averaging 279.4 yards per game. Conversely, Atlanta is dead last in the NFL when it comes to pass defense while allowing an alarmingly high 306.9 yards per game. The Chargers are coming off a 37-23 loss to Seattle as a 4.5-point home favorite. NFL away favorites of 7.0 or less (Chargers) coming off a SU favorite upset loss in which they allowed 35 points or greater, resulted in those road favorites going 20-1 ATS and 21-0 SU since 2015. The average victory margin in those 21 contests came by a decisive 13.6 points per game. Give me the Chargers minus the points. |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -130 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
Las Vegas @ Jacksonville 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Las Vegas -130 (5*) The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing 24-0 loss to New Orleans in a game they closed as a 1.0-point road favorite. That loss dropped the Las Vegas season record to 2-5 (.285). They’ll be facing a Jacksonville team that’s coming off a 21-17 loss to Denver in a game played in Europe which made their season record 2-6 (.250). NFL road favorites of 7.0 or less (Las Vegas) with a win percentage of .250 to .400 who are coming off a SU favorite loss, versus an opponent (Jacksonville) with a losing record and coming off a SU loss, resulted in those road favorites going 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2010. Give me the Raiders on the money line. |
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11-05-22 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +6.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET Game# 395-396 Play On: Vanderbilt +6.5 (5*) South Carolina cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season 2 weeks ago. However, it was short lived after being knocked off by Missouri 23-10 as a 3.5-point home favorite. Now they enter this matchup against lowly Vanderbilt as just a touchdown road favorite. The Vanderbilt Commodores have lost 4 straight since opening the season 3-1. However, 3 of those 4 losses came at the hands of #6 Alabama, #3 Georgia, and #11 Ole Miss. Their other loss came at Missouri 17-14 in a game they easily covered as a 14.0-point road underdog. This goes right down to the wire. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Auburn v. Mississippi State -12.5 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Mississippi State 7:30 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Mississippi State -12.5 (5*) Since starting the season 2-0, Auburn has lost 5 of their last 6, and quite frankly were extremely lucky in the lone win in that sequence when Missouri handed them a 17-4 victory in overtime. The Tigers missed a chip shot 22-yard field goal on the final play of regulation time, and then fumbled at the Auburn 1 in overtime which would have given them the win. All the negativity surrounding the football program and its obvious lack of success resulted in head coach Brian Harsin being fired this past Sunday. Mississippi State has struggled in SEC away games which is evidenced by an 0-3 SU&ATS record in those contests. However, the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 at home, and each of those victories came by 18 points or greater. They’ve also scored 40 points or more in all 4 at home. On the other hand, Auburn has scored 24 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games versus FBS opponents. Auburn has also allowed 41 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Give me Mississippi State minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Clemson v. Notre Dame +4 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: Notre Dame +4.0 (5*) Unlike other past Clemson teams that have contended for a national title, this 8-0 Tigers team has managed to escape with a trio of 1 score wins, and it includes each of their previous 2 games played. Those last 2 wins each came by exactly 6 points over Syracuse and Florida State. They also beat Wake Forest in overtime earlier this season. Notre Dame ran the ball down Syracuse’s throat last week while amassing 246 yards rushing and average over 5 yards per running attempt. Florida State showed a few weeks back that Clemson can be run on. The Seminoles had 206 yards rushing in that contest while also averaging a robust 6.1 yards per attempt. The strength of this Notre Dame team is running the ball behind an outstanding offensive line. This will be just the 11th time since 2008 that Notre Dame will be a home underdog. They went 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in their previous 11 in that role. Furthermore, if the Irish didn’t enter those games undefeated, they were a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS. The Irish started the season 2-0, but they’ve rebounded to win 5 of their last 6. Give me Notre Dame plus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Troy -3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Troy @ UL-Lafayette 5:00 PM ET Game# 391-392 Play On: Troy -3.5 (5*) Troy is coming off a Sun Belt Conference 10-6 win at South Alabama in their previous game. That victory was the 5th in a row for the Trojans and improved their season record to 6-2. Their only 2 losses came at nationally ranked Ole Miss 28-10 and at Appalachian State 32-28 when they allowed a miracle Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game. It’s been a to0ugh transition for UL-Lafayette in the first year since former head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job. They Rajun Cajuns are just 3-4 this season versus FBS teams. College Football away favorites of between 3.5 and 10.0 with a win percentage of .428 or better (Troy) who scored and allowed 17 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (UL-Lafayette) coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going an unbeaten 8-0 ATS since 2018. It is a short sample size, but those 8 road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 won those contests by an average of 32.1 points per game. This is a strong betting situation for the road favorite. Give me Troy minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Georgia -8.0 (5*) Here’s the thing, Georgia remains #1 and Tennessee #2 in the AP Poll. However, the first College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week and had Tennessee #1 and Georgia #3. As if the Bulldogs needed any more incentive while playing at home. I look for the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs to win and easily cover. Both teams enter this game with identical 8-0 season records. Georgia is coming off a 42-20 win over Florida. Georgia has won 15 straight home games versus FBS opponents and includes going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 19.0. Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 (Georgia) with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a conference win by 21 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tennessee) with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-2 ATS and 17-0 SU since 2006. The average victory margin in those 17 contests was 17.6 points per game. Give me Georgia minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*) This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time. Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Missouri +1.0 (5*) Kentucky was blown out 44-6 at #1 Tennessee last Saturday. After starting the season 4-0, the Wildcats have lost 3 of its last 4, and had a turnover margin of -5. Missouri is coming off a 23-10 upset win at South Carolina last Saturday. Missouri is 4-4 (.500) this season but 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to #3 Georgia 26-22. The Missouri defense has been outstanding during their previous 3 games while allowing only 16.0 points and 268.3 yards per contest. They’ll be facing a Kentucky offense that over its last 4 games has averaged only just 16.5 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game. College Football home teams with a in percentage of .500 or worse (Missouri) playing before Game 12 and they’re coming off an underdog SU upset win, versus an opponent coming off a road loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 2013. If those home teams had a point-spread parameter of +3.5 to -9.5 they were 11-0 SU&ATS since 2013 and won by an average of 16.4 points per game. Give me the Missouri Tigers in this one. |
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11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10.5 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Portland @ Phoenix 10:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Phoenix -10.5 (5*) This is one of those uncomfortable picks for me and only because I hate betting NBA double-digit favorites. However, there’s exception to every sports betting rule, and this pick qualifies in that regard. The Suns are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per contest. As a matter of fact, their last and only loss this season was a 113-111 defeat at Portland. Portland’s star point guard Damien Lillard scored 41 points in that contest. Lillard will be out tonight with a calf injury. Which leads to this Phoenix Suns betting trend that’s difficult to ignore. The Suns are 15-1 ATS since 2020 when playing with same season revenge stemming from a road favorite SU loss. Additionally, the Suns are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game. Give me Phoenix minus the big number. |
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11-04-22 | Bucks v. Wolves +3.5 | 115-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Minnesota 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Minnesota +3.5 (5*) Milwaukee is off to a terrific 7-0 start to the season and covered 6 of those contests. Before we anoint them as the next NBA champion let’s keep this in mind. The Cumulative record of their opponents this season is a dismal 13-28 (.317). The only team they faced who currently has a winning record is Atlanta (5-3). Minnesota is a much better team than their 4-4 record indicates, and they’ll display that this evening. The Timberwolves won both regular season meetings versus Milwaukee a season ago by scores of 138-19 and 113-108. Give me Minnesota plus the points. |
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11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*) Boston will be out to revenge an embarrassing 120-102 blowout loss at Chicago just 12 days ago. However, the sportsbooks are unfazed by that result when looking at the sizable number that the Celtics are laying in this game. I’m think like a bookmaker so give me Boston minus the points. |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans OVER 45.5 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Texans 8:20 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Over 45.0 (5*) Philadelphia is currently a 13.5-point favorite, and the total is 45.5. The Eagles are coming off last Sunday’s 35-13 home blowout win over the Pittsburgh Steelers which improved their season record to 7-0. Philadelphia has scored 24 points or more in all 7 games this season in addition to amassing 400 yards or greater on 5 of those occasions. The Eagles have played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 as a non-division favorite with a total of 48.0 or less. Those 6 contests averaged a combined 57.3 points scored per game. Houston has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 as a non-division home underdog. The average total in those contests was 43.4 and there was a combined 56.2 points scored per game. The Texans are also 3-0 to the over in their last 3 non-division contests this season with a combined average of 53.0 points scored per game. NFL undefeated road favorites with a total of 42.5 to 47.0 that are playing after Game 3 and are coming off a home win by 10 or more points, resulted in those games going 33-7 (82.5%) over the total since 1985. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets -6 v. Thunder | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Denver -6.0 (5*) This is one of those lines that won’t make sense to many NBA bettors. After all, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Their most recent win was a 116-108 home win over Orlando this past Tuesday. Yet, they’re a sizable home underdog in this contest against a Denver team which has an identical 4-3 season record as they have, and they’re just 1-3 SU&ATS in road games. Denver is coming off a 121-110 road loss at the then winless Lakers in their previous contest in a game they closed as a 3.5-point favorite. NBA road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU favorite loss (Denver), versus an opponent coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 57-21 ATS (73.1%) since 1996 and 24-6 ATS (80%) since 2018. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is. This is a textbook example of exactly that. Give me the Nuggets minus the points. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Coastal Carolina +3.0 (5*) Appalachian State enters this contest with a somewhat disappointing 5-3 record. That includes 2 Sun Belt Conferences losses to James Madison as a 6.0-point favorite and at Texas State as a sizable 19.0-point chalk. Coastal Carolina is coming off last Saturday’s 24-13 win at Marshall and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. That victory improved the Chanticleers season record to 7-1 (.875). Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6.0 and +11.0. The Chanticleers will also be out to revenge last year’s 30-27 upset loss at Appalachian State. Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6 to +11.0 and with an average victory margin of 10.5 points per game. Any conference home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those home teams going 52-5 (91.2%) straight up since 2018. This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog in this matchup. Additionally, if those home teams had a point-spread parameter of between -6.0 and +11.0 they were 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.2 points per game. Give me Coastal Carolina plus the points. |
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11-02-22 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 220 | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Boston @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 220.0 (5*) These teams met in Boston earlier this season and Cleveland walked away with 132-123 win. That contest sailed way over the total of 218.0. Boston has allowed 117 points or more in 4 of 6 games this season. The Celtics have also scored 111 points or greater in 5 of those 6 games. Conversely, Cleveland has scored 117 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Cleveland has made 42.7% of their 3-point shots this season. During their previous 2 games the Cavaliers made 16 threes versus Boston and 23 against the Knicks. On the other hand, Boston has allowed opponents to make 37.9% of their 3-point shots this season. NBA home teams with a total of 220.0 to 229.5 that has made 36.5% or more of their 3-point shot attempts, and they made 16 or more 3-point shots in each of their previous 2 games, versus an opponent (Boston) that allows opponents to make 36.5% or more of their 3-point shot attempts, resulted in those games playing 22-4 (84.6%) to the over since 1996. Those games averaged a combined 229.9 points per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |