Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-23 | Jackson State +1.5 v. San Diego | 61-87 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Jackson State @ San Diego 10:00 PM ET Game# 306541-306542 Play On: Jackson State +1.5 This line jumped right off the screen last night and even more this morning. San Diego opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and that line has fallen to 1.5 as of this writing. San Diego plays in the WCC with the likes of nationally ranked Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. They’re led by veteran head coach Steve Lavin who’s had arguably more success as a television personality than a college basketball head coach. San Diego was less than impressive in their 68-64 home win on Monday over Sonoma State that plays at the Division II level. Jackson State returns all 5 starters from a team that began last season 1-12 and then finished 13-7 over their last 20 games. That poor start can be attributed to a an extremely tough non-conference schedule in which they managed to pull at upset as a 12.5 underdog at SMU. They also were extremely competitive in road losses to Michigan by 10, Mississippi State by 10, and Tulsa by 6. Despite that poor start to last season they were still 8-5 ATS during those contests. The opened this season on Monday with a 94-77 road loss to a very good Memphis team in which they covered as a 21.5-point underdog. Give me Jackson State. |
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11-08-23 | Raptors +4.5 v. Mavs | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Mavericks 8:40 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Toronto +4.5 Despite being 6-1 to starts this season which includes 3-0 at home, Dallas finds itself as just a 4.5-point favorite versus a 3-4 Toronto team. Furthermore, this line opened at 6.0 and has come down to 4.5 even with most individual bets and money going the way of Dallas. This will only the 3rd game in 7 days for Toronto. Conversely, Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Mavericks are a very talented team, but their defensive play leaves much to be desired and should rear its ugly head even more so when playing against an opponent with a clear advantage in terms of rest. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio @ Buffalo 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Buffalo +7.5 Buffalo went an abysmal 0-4 in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, since conference action began, they are a respectable 3-2 while only allowing 16.8 points and 285.8 yards per game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers. Ohio is 6-3 overall but just 3-2 in MAC action. The Bobcats have lost 2 of their last 3 and failed to cover on each occasion. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chargers -3.0 This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me and when that occurs, I predominately go against what appears to be the obvious choice. The Chargers are 3-4 and the Jets 4-3. New York has won 3 consecutive games. However, it’s the Chargers who are better than a field goal road favorite versus an opponent with a better record. The Chargers are coming off a 30-13 home win over Chicago in which they covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Any NFL away favorite of 3.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent with a .400 or better win percentage, resulted in those away favorites like the Chargers going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 1984. Give me the Chargers minus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Colts @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Over 44.0 The Colts have scored 21 points or more in a66 8 games this season while playing 6-2 to the over. As a matter of fact, Indy has played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 with a combined 66.3 points scored per game. The negative aspect of all that for the Colts is their defense is border line atrocious while allowing 28.6 points and 371.3 yards per game. Dring their previous 3 hames they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points respectively. The Panthers are no offensive juggernaut but they have averaged 20.0 points scored per game in their last 5 and look for them to improve on that number versus a Porous Colts defensive unit. The Panthers aren’t without their defensive issues as well while allowing 37 points or more in 3 of their last 5. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-05-23 | Rams +3 v. Packers | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Rams +3.0 I don’t care if it’s Mathew Stafford or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Rams. I’m fading the Packers either way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is looking more and more like a genuine first round bust. The Packers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 contests. Furthermore, their previous 3 losses came versus Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota, none of which currently possess a winning record. The Rams are coming off back-to-back losses versus Pittsburgh and Dallas who have a combined 10-5 record. Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 or less like the Rams that’s coming off a SU loss who has a win percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay who’s playing after Game 7 and has lost 4 or more games in a row with the last defeat coming by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Those underdogs won all 15 of those contests SU and by an average of 8.5 points per game. Give me the Rams plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bucs +3 v. Texans | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Tampa Bay +3.0 Despite their uninspiring 3-4 record which includes a current 3-game losing streak, Tampa Bay is still very much a contender in a wide open NFC South race. The Bucs have been much better on the road than at home this season while going 2-1 SU&3-0 ATS during those contests. Houston is coming off a 15-13 road loss to then winless Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-4. Any NFL away underdog of 4.0 or less like Tampa Bay that has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a SU loss and they possess a win percentage of .400-.490, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 2012. The away underdogs also won 14 of those 16 contests straight up. Give me Tampa Bay plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders +3 v. Patriots | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Patriots 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +3.0 New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in non-division contests this season while losing by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Patriots are also a poor 1-3 SU&ATS at home and the only time they were a favorite in those 4 contests they failed miserable during a 34-0 blowout loss to New Orleans. New England has been anemic offensively in their dismal 2-6 start to the season while averaging a mere 14.8 points scored per game and 284.8 yards gained per contest. Washington is coming off a disheartening 38-31 home loss to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and pushed as a 7.0-point underdog. They outgained the Eagles in that contest by a wide margin of 472-374 and also squandered an early 14-3 lead. However, Washington is a more than respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Commanders are also a profitable 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Give me the Commanders plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bears v. Saints OVER 41 | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Chicago @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Over 41.0 Since 11/8/2021, Chicago has played 5-0 to the over as a non-division away underdog when the number was between 39.5 and 45.5 and there was a combined average of 60.0 points scored per game. Chicago is coming off last Sunday night’s 30-13 road loss to the Chargers. The Bears are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 when playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games and there was a combined average of 57.5 points scored per game. Chicago has played 6-2 to the over in all games this season and that includes 3-0 when the number is 44.5 or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in their last 2 with a combined 60.0 points scored per game. The New Orleans passing attack is clicking on all cylinders over their previous 3 games while averaging 328.7 yards through the air per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-04-23 | LSU +3.5 v. Alabama | 28-42 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU @ Alabama 7:45 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: LSU +3.5 Alabama has won 6 straight games since being upset at home by Texas. Nonetheless, 2 of their last 3 wins came by 6 or less and the lone exception was a 34-20 win over Tennessee in which they trailed 20-7 at halftime. The Crimson Tide has scored 26 points or fewer in 5 of the last 7 games. That can be problematic when considering they’ll be facing a dynamic and explosive LSU offense that averages 47.4 points scored and 553.1 yards game per game. That includes 44.2 points scored and 554.6 yards gained per game while going 4-1 in SEC contests. Alabama hasn’t bee this low a home favorite since 9/22/2007 when they were -3.0 versus Georgia and lost 26-23. The current line speaks volumes to me, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take Alabama as a small home favorite. I’m not taking the bait. Give me LSU plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
USC @ Washington 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: USC +3.0 USC barely escaped with a 50-49 win over California last Saturday. The trojans national championship aspirations ended after losing back-to-back game to Notre Dame and Utah. The Trojan offense led by star quarterback Caleb Williams is championship caliber, but their defense has been an enigma and a huge liability. However, USC would like nothing better than to hand Washington their first loss of the season and put a dent into their College Football Playoff hopes. They’ll certainly be motivated since they’re an underdog at home. The undefeated Huskies and star quarterback Michael Pennix are very good. However, they haven’t exactly been blowing away the competition of late. As a matter of fact, their last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or fewer. That includes the last 2 versus Arizona State (2-6) and Stanford (2-6). Give me USC plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas +3 v. Iowa State | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Kansas +3.0 Everyone and their Uncle are banking on the fact that Kansas (6-2/.750) is going to in for an emotional letdown after upsetting undefeated Oklahoma at home last Saturday. On most occasions I would agree with that logic, but not in this instance. Yes, Iowa State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Nonetheless, those victories came over TCU, Cincinnati (2-6), and Baylor (2-5). This is also an Iowa State team that lost to the Ohio Bobcats earlier this season and was blown out by 50-20 against Oklahoma. Additionally, since 2021, Iowa State has gone 1-6 SU when facing fellow Big 12 Conference teams with a win percentage of .750 or better. Give me Kansas plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Jacksonville State +15.5 v. South Carolina | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 331-332 Play On: Jacksonville State +15.5 This will be the largest crowd that Jacksonville State will play in front of all year. The Jaguars enter this matchup versus a team from the mighty SEC with a stellar 7-2 record and this game has far greater meaning to them as opposed to South Carolina. Afterall, the Gamecocks are taking a break from their hear of their SEC schedule to face an opponent who’s a first year FBS participant. Additionally, it’s not like the Gamecocks (2-6) carry a lot of momentum with them heading into this contest considering they’re currently on a 4-game losing streak. It’s also worth noting, Jacksonville State is at a +9 turnover differential this season while South Carolina is -6. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Kansas State +3.5 Considering Texas is without their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, and how both teams have performed during recent game, I strongly believe the underdog is the better team at this juncture. To be clear, I didn’t say the more talented squad, but the better team. Kansas State has lost the last 6 versus Texas, but 5 of those 6 contests were decided by 7 points or fewer. Since Quinn Ewers went down with an injury, the Texas offense has put up pedestrian numbers of 362 and 354 total yards in those 2 games which is well below their season average of 454.4. Since being upset at Oklahoma State, #25 Kansas State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents (Houston, Texas Tech, TCU) by a cumulative score of 120-24. Give me Kansas State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Arkansas v. Florida -3 | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Florida -3.0 The public has hammered the underdog Razorbacks in this contest to the point this line went from 5.5 to 3.5 over the last 24 hours. Granted. Arkansas has been a tough luck team this season when considering that 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Nonetheless, all 6 of those defeats have come over their previous 6 games. The Razorbacks have found ways to lose games they deserved to win on a couple of occasions. When teams are stuck in that mode for a prolonged period, they become mentally fragile. Furthermore, the Razorbacks offense has been anemic over their last 4 contests while averaging a mere 16.5 points scored and 227.5 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Florida Gators team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 23.5 points per game and includes an upset win over #19 Tennessee. I’ll be in the minority with this pick, but that’s perfectly fine with me. Give me Florida minus points. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 226 | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Nuggets 8:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Under 226.0 Denver has played 5-0 to the under this season. The average total in those 5 contests was 225.1 and there was just a combined 214.4 points scored per game. Those 5 contests averaged only a combined 35 free throw attempts per game and that includes only 14 per contest by Denver. Both numbers are extremely low by NBA standards. Dallas is a very good 3-point shooting team. As a matter of fact, 42.9% of the Mavericks made field goals have come from 3-point territory so far. However, Denver has held their 5 opponents this season to an atrocious 29.6% shooting from beyond the 3-point arc. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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11-03-23 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 226.5 | 141-139 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: Under 226.5 During the daily quest to be a successful sports bettor it requires us to make the occasional uncomfortable bet. This qualifies as one of those situations for me. Nevertheless, Golden State has played 3-0 to the under this season whenever the number was 225.0 or greater and only a combined 217.0 points were scored per game. The Warriors are a very underrated defensive team and have allowed 108 points or fewer during 4 of their 5 games this season. As a matter of fact, throughout their previous 3 contests, Golden State allowed 99.3 points per game and held opponents to 39.9% shooting. Oklahoma City has also played 3-0 to the under this season when the number was 225.0 or greater and there was a combined average of only 217.3 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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11-03-23 | Wizards v. Heat OVER 225 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Wizards @ Heat 8:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Over 225.0 Washington is allowing 126.2 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 49.0% and make 38.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. That’s a major reason why they’re off to a poor 1-3 start to the season. Additionally, 3 of those 4 contests went over the total with a combined average of 241.4 points scored per game. Miami has played 3-2 to the under thus far. The Heat did go under in their previous game and have tet to go under in back-to-back games. Miami has played 2-0 to the over following an under this season with combined points scored of 230 and 236 during those contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Boston College +3.0 Syracuse has been consistent with their recent trend under current head coach Dino Babers on getting off to fast starts while facing a soft schedule, and then tailing off once getting into the heart of ACC action. The Orange began the season 4-0 while facing opponents the likes of Colgate (2-5), Western Michigan (3-6), Purdue (2-6), and Army (2-6). Since that time, they’ve gone 0-4 SU&ATS while being outscored by 29.0 points and outgained by 298.8 yards per game. The low point may have come in last week’s 38-10 loss against an average at best Virginia Tech team where they were outgained in total yards by a decisive margin of 528-138. They’ve scored 14 points or fewer and amassed 286 yards or less of total offense in each of those 4 losses. Conversely, Boston College enters this week on a 4-game win streak and is just 1 victory shy of bowl eligibility. The Eagles have already far exceeded College Football so-called expert’s preseason predictions. The Eagles are coming off a 21-14 home win over Connecticut in a game they outgained the Huskies 433-222 and wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. Any College Football away team like Boston College that’s won 4 or more games in a row and their previous victory came by 9 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Syracuse who’s lost 4 or more consecutive games in a row, and their last defeat came by 6 points or more while also allowing 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 26-2 SU (92.3%) since 1986. The SU betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me Boston College plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Titans @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Titans +3.0 Tennessee is coming off a much needed 28-23 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. 2023 first round draft choice quarterback Will Levis was brilliant in his starting debut while throwing for 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Steelers have a deceiving 4-3 record. I say that because they’ve been outscored by 4.9 yards and outgained by 110.9 yards per game. Not exactly the type of numbers that’s conducive to a winning record. Their defense has been very good, but the offense has been a polar opposite and that’s atrocious. The Steelers have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns throughout their 7 games this season. Any NFL non-division away underdog of 3.0 or less like Tennessee that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 6.5-points or greater, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2019. Give me the Titans plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Raptors @ 76ers 7:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: 76ers -8.0 I had Toronto last night and that result was never in doubt from the start has they blew out Milwaukee 130-11 as a 5.0-point home underdog. However, I don’t like this sport at all for them tonight. Toronto will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, they’ll be facing an opponent in Philadelphia which will be playing with 3 days rest since their last game. These teams met in Toronto last week and Philadelphia walked away with a 114-107 win despite Toronto making 53.1% of their 3-point shot attempts. I will go out on a limb and say the Raptors won’t come anywhere close to that in this one. Give me the 76ers minus points. |
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11-02-23 | Panthers -114 v. Red Wings | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Red Wings 7:07 PM ET Game# 39-40 Play On: Panthers -114 Starting with 2021-2022 season, Florida is 7-0 versus Detroit and that includes 4-0 in away games. After a hot start, Florida is 1-3 versus the money line in their last 4 and that includes 0-2 at home. Additionally, we have a situation in this one where the money line home underdog has a better record and more points at this point. You would think there would be a ton of betting value on the home underdog in this spot. However, it’s seldom that easy when it pertains to sports betting. Give me the Florida Panthers as a money line road favorite. |
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11-01-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Kings @ Warriors 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Warriors -7.0
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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11-01-23 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | 109-133 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Jazz 9:10 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Under 225.5
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rangers (Eovaldi) @ Diamondbacks (Gallen) 8:03 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Diamondbacks -105 Nathan Eovaldi has an extremely profitable track record during his career postseason starts. This year has been no different when considering the Rangers are 5-0 this postseason when Eovaldi is their starting pitcher. However, he was uninspiring in the World Series opener when he allowed 5 earned runs during just 4 2/3 innings pitched versus Arizona. The Rangers have some wiggle room in this spot knowing that even if they lose, they’ll have 2 chances at home to capture the franchise’s first ever World Series crown. Zac Gallen has not been in good form over his last 3 starts. However, 2 of those outings came on the road where he was an ordinary at best pitcher all season. Nonetheless, Gallen is 12-5 during his home team starts this season with a brilliant 2.67 ERA/1.05 WHIP and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ration. Galeen made 1 home start versus Texas this season and allowed just 1 earned run in 6.0 innings and struck out 11 batters while doing so. The Diamondbacks bullpen pitched 8.0 innings last night. Arizona is an extremely profitable 15-4 this season immediately following a game in which they pitched 6.0 or more innings. Give me the Diamondbacks on the money line. |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors +5.5 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Raptors 7:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Raptors +5.5
No analysis on NBA picks today due to time constraints. |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rangers (Heany) @ Diamondbacks (Mantiply) 8:03 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Over 9.0 Texas is coming off yesterday’s 3-1 win which marked the first time they stayed under the total in 9 games. The Rangers will go with Andrew Heany on the mound tonight. Heaney hasn’t been god in 2 starts this postseason while recording a sizable 8.29 ERA/1.84 WHIP. Since 2021, Heaney has pitched 25-10 to the over during his team starts against teams with a winning record. Texas is 30-17 this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher while averaging 6.0 runs scored per game and belting 68 home runs. The Texas bullpen is a bit taxed heading into today after pitching a combined 15.0 innings throughout the first 3 games of this World Series. Arizona will attempt to piece this game together with a bullpen by committee approach. They’ll be facing a potent Texas batting order which has slugged 26 homers in 15 games during this 2023 postseason. This is nothing new when considering the Rangers are averaging 1.46 home runs hit per game this season. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Lions 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Under 46.5 The Raiders have scored 18 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games this season. The Las Vegas defense has played very good over their last 4 contests while allowing just 293.0 yards per game. The Raiders are coming off a 30-12 loss at Chicago as a favorite of 2.5 and it went over the total of 38.0. Since 2021, the Raiders have played 7-0 to the under on the road when there was a total of 51.0 or less and they’re coming off an over in their previous game. The average total in those 7 contests was 44.4 and there were 34.6 points scored per game. Detroit is coming off an embarrassing 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore. Since 2021, the Lions have played 7-0 to the under when the number is between 45.5 and 51.5 all with a combined average of 35.1 points scored per game. |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -108 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rangers (Scherzer) @ Diamondbacks (Pfadt) 8:03 PM ET Game# 945-946 Play On: Rangers -108 I know Max Scherzer hasn’t been sharp in his 2 postseason starts. However, he’s been a proven clutch performer in past postseasons and will shine tonight. Texas is 8-0 on the road during this postseason and has outscored their opponents by a decisive margin 51-21. Brandon Pfadt has pitched extremely well during his last 3 postseason starts. Nonetheless, during his only starts versus Texas in 2023, Pfadt allowed 7 earned runs on 9 hits which included giving up 4 homers. Give me the Rangers on the money line. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts +2.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Saints @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Colts +2.5 The Colts have shot themselves in the foot with turnovers in recent games. Otherwise, their offense has been very good over the last 3 contests, and they outgained opponents by 114.0 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans is 2-2 SU on the road, but their 2 wins came over Carolina and New England that have a combined 2-11 record thus far. Give me the Colts plus points. |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars -130 v. Steelers | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Jaguars -130 (ML) The Steelers are a fraud at 4-2 as they’ve been outscored by 4.0-points and outgained by 110.0 yards per game. Not to mention a turnover differential of -4 through 6 games. Their defense has been their main catalyst which has attributed to their modest early success. However, the Steelers offense is averaging just a mere 273.5 total yards per game and 27:06 in time of possession. Jacksonville enters this matchup red-hot having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 11.3 points per game. The Jags are also 4-0 SU&ATS this season during away and neutral site games. We unequivocally have the better starting quarterback in this matchup with Trevor Lawrence over Kenny Pickett. The Jags are a noteworthy +6 in the turnover department this season. Give me the Jaguars as a money line favorite. |
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10-29-23 | Vikings -110 v. Packers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Vikings -110 (ML) The Packers were off to an encouraging 2-1 start and things have gone south since. Green Bay is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and their offense has averaged just 16.0 points scored and 282.0 yards gained per contest during this current losing streak. Conversely, the Vikings defense has really stepped up their game of late. Throughout their previous 4 contests Minnesota has allowed 16.5 points and 291.3 yards per game. Since 2021, Minnesota is 7-2 SU as a road favorite. During that same 3-year stretch, the Vikings are 5-0 SU when coming off 2 games in a row that went under the total. Once again, we have a decided starting quarterback advantage in this matchup with Kirk Cousins over Jordan Love. Give me the Vikings on the money line. |
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10-28-23 | Air Force -14 v. Colorado State | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Air Force -14.0 Any conference away favorite like Air Force of between 12.0 and 21.0 with a win percentage of .500 or better who’s playing after Game 7 and is coming off a win in which they allowed 31 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Colorado State who has a losing record and is coming off an ATS cover, resulted in those away favorites going 33-4 ATS (89.1%) since 2014. Give me Air Force minus points. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Wyoming +5.0 Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points. |
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10-28-23 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. South Alabama | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ South Alabama 5:00 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: UL-Lafayette +11.0 Any conference away underdog of between 4.5 and 13.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like UL-Lafayette, and they’re playing in Games 6 through 9, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss by 19 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 31-1 ATS (96.8%) since 2016. Those underdogs also won 20 of those 32 games outright. Give me UL-Lafayette plus the points. |
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10-28-23 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -18.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Miami -18.5 Miami is coming off an impressive 28-20 win over Clemson. Virginia is coming off a massive 31-27 upset win over undefeated North Carolina and did so as a 24.0-point home underdog. Additionally, it was the 1st win over an FBS opponent by Virginia this season. This creates a rare betting situation that shows teams like Virginia fall from grace extremely quickly in their next game after pulling off a stunner of this magnitude. Any College Football away underdog of between 10.0 and 35.0 that’s playing before Game 12 and is coming off an away underdog of 17.0 or more SU win in which they scored 21 points or greater, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off a SU win, resulted in those away underdogs going 0-7 ATS since 1987. The average margin of defeat in those contests came by an enormous 39.3 points per game. |
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10-28-23 | Mississippi State +6.5 v. Auburn | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Mississippi State +6.5 Mississippi State is coming off a 7-3 upset win at Arkansas in a game they closed as a 7.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 4-3 (.571). The Bulldogs are now 13-9 SU in their last 22 games. Auburn will enter this SEC battle on a 4-game losing streak and their season record is currently 3-4 (.428). Any College Football away underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 like Mississippi State who’s coming off a conference away underdog SU win, they have a win percentage of .555 or better and won 11 or more of their last 22 games, versus an opponent like Auburn who has a win percentage of .714 or worse, resulted in those road underdogs going 20-0 ATS since 2003. Those underdogs also won 14 of those 20 games outright. Give me Mississippi State plus points. |
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10-28-23 | Houston v. Kansas State -17 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Kansas State -17.0 Any College Football home favorite of between 10.5 and 19.5 like Kansas State that’s playing after Game 4 that’s coming off a conference SU win by 7 or more in which they scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent like Houston coming off a conference SU loss by 7 or less in which they allowed 24 points or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by a decisive margin of 27.2 points per game. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Rangers (Eovaldi) 8:03 PM ET Game# 941-942 Play On: Rangers -1.5 (+134) Zac Gallen has been shaky over his last 3 postseason starts as evidenced by a 6.06 ERA/1.53 WHIP and 6 home runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings pitched. The latter home run to innings pitched ratio is especially concerning with Texas having hit 22 homers in 12 postseason games. Furthermore, the Rangers are averaging an enormous average of 1.79 homers hit per game at home this season. Nathan Eovaldi is an extremely profitable 10-1 during his career team starts in October. That includes 4-0 this year with a brilliant 2.42 ERA/0.96 WHIP and an average of 6.5 inning pitched per start. Texas reached the World series with a convincing 11-4 win in a deciding Game 7 at Houston. The Rangers are 21-6 this season following a game in which they scored 10 runs or more and outscored those 27 opponents by an average of 2.7 runs per outing. Give me the Rangers as a run-line favorite. |
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10-26-23 | Wild v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Wild @ Flyers 7:37 PM ET Game# 47-48 Play On: Under 6.0 My only regret is that I didn’t jump on this total earlier when it was 6.5. However, I’m still comfortable going under this current number. Minnesota has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 with a combined average of 9.6 goals scored per game. The Wild have certainly played some teams along the way that were good fits to their wide-open type of style they prefer to play. That won’t be the case tonight when facing a Flyers team which has allowed only 26.6 shots on goal per game during their previous 5 outings. Additionally, the Flyers penalty killing has been very good and their power play which is 1-20 (5%) in their first 6 games has been awful. The Flyers goaltender Carter Hart is off to a superb start to the season while recording a sparkling .922 save percentage. Furthermore, during his 2 home starts Carter has posted a 0.50 GAA and stopped 47 of 48 shots on goal. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Georgia Southern | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Georgia State +1.5 Georgia Southern is 5-2 but failed to cover in their last 2 games. Throughout their previous 3 games, the Georgia Southern defense has allowed 32.3 points and 427.0 yards per game. Georgia State enters this contest with a stellar 6-1 record which includes going 3-0 SU&ATS on the road. In a game between 2 seemingly even matched teams, it could simply come down to who wins the turnover battle. Georgia State has committed just 7 turnovers in 7 games this season. Conversely, Georgia Southern has committed 7 during just their 2 last games alone, and has an alarming high 17 giveaways on the season. Georgia State is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference away games when the point-spread was between +6.0 and -6.0. Any College Football team like Georgia State with a point-spread between +8.5 to -8.5 who has a winning record, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent like Georgia Southern that has a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those teams like Georgia State going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average line for those winning teams in that exact situation was -1.8 and they won by an average of 15.6 points per contest. Give me Georgia State. |
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10-26-23 | Jets -120 v. Red Wings | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Jets @ Red Wings 7:05 PM ET Game# 37-38 Play On: Jets -120 Detroit is coming off a 5-4 home overtime loss to Seattle that halted a 5-game win streak. Winnipeg is coming off a division 4-2 home win over St. Louis which evened their money line record at 3-3. Yet, it’s the Jets that are currently a favorite on the road in this matchup. That certainly speaks volumes to me. Additionally, since the 2021-2022 season, Detroit has gone an abysmal 2-15 versus the money line immediately following a 1-goal home loss. The Red Wings are also 4-18 against the money line following a home loss by any margin since the start of last season. Any NHL money line road favorite like Winnipeg that’s coming off a division home win, versus an opponent like Detroit that’s coming off a home game in which both teams scored 3 goals or more, resulted in those road favorites going 28-4 (87.5%) over the past 5 seasons and 14-1 (93.3%) throughout the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Jets as a money line favorite. |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International OVER 49.5 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ FIU 7:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Over 49.5 Neither defense has played well in each of their last 4 games. During their last 4 FIU is allowing 31.5 points and 455.0 yards per game. Conversely, Jacksonville State has given up 25.3 points and 439.8 yards per game throughout their previous 4. Each offense has shown improvement over each of their previous 3 contests that exceeds their season offensive numbers. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 54 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Over 54.0 Since 2021, Louisiana Tech has played 12-2 to the over at home with a combined 66.4 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, they’ve played 3-0 to the over during their last 3 home this year and with a combined average of 70.7 points scored per game. New Mexico State has played an extremely soft schedule this year. However, the 1 qulaity team that faced was Liberty (7-0) and they allowed 33 points and 526 yards. The Aggies have a very good rushing attack that averages a tad over 200 yards per game and better than 6.0 yards per attempt. They’ll be facing a Louisina Tech defense which is allowing 199 yards rushing per game. During their last 3 contests, the Aggies are averaging 29.7 points scored per game, 445.3 yards gained per contest, and an impressive 7.0 yards per offensive play. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
49ers @ Vikings 8:15 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Under 43.5 The Vikings have gone under in each of their previous 3 with a combined average of 37.7 points scored per game. During that stretch, their defense allowed only 280.0 yards per game while the offense accounted for just 271.3 yards per contest. San Francisco is coming off a 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 9.5-point favorite. However, San Francisco is #2 in scoring defense thus far while allowing a mere 14.5 points scored per contests. Any NFL team like the 49ers that’s playing after Game 2 in a Monday night contest, and they’re coming off a SU favorite loss in which they allowed 38 points or fewer, resulted in those games playing 18-0 to the under since 2019. There was a combined average of 39.5 points scored per game. Additionally, 8 of those contests had a total of 46.5 or less and those averaged a combined 35.9 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-23-23 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rangers (Scherzer) @ Astros (Javier) 8:03 PM ET Game# 933-934 Play On: Over 9.0 Max Scherzer has a reputation as a clutch postseason pitcher. However, I’m not showing him that type of respect at this stage of career and specifically today. Scherzer’s has made 2 starts versus Houston since 9/6 and had a terrible 12.00 ERA/2.00 WHIP in those outings. Houston’s Christian Javier has made 2 starts versus Texas in 2023 with an awful 9.00 ERA. The last 5 games of this ALCS have played 4-0-1 to the over. There’s been an extremely high percentage of bets and money placed on the under. I’m going with a contrarian approach. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina. Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Rangers +105 v. Astros | 9-2 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rangers (Eovaldi) @ Astros (Valdez) 8:03 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Rangers +105 Houston continued its season long trend of being a fantastic road team by sweeping the 3 games in Texas and put themselves 1 win away from reaching another World Series. However, the Astros are just 40-45 at home this season and that includes going 3-10 in the last 13. Framber Valdez is scheduled to be on the mound for Houston tonight and he’s recently being in terrible form. During his last 4 starts, Valdez posted an awful 9.92 ERA/2.14 WHIP and averaged just 4.1 innings pitched per outing. It was a huge disappointment for Texas to lose all 3 at home after winning the first 2 of this NLCS at Houston. However, they can take solace in knowing that they’re a perfect 6-0 on the road this postseason. Additionally, Nathan Eovaldi get the start in Game 6 and he’s been in terrific form over 3 postseason starts while going 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA/0.86 WHIP. As a matter of fact, Eovaldi is 13-2 in his career postseason team starts and opponents averaged a mere 2.9 runs scored per outing during those 15 games. Give me the Rangers on the money line. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers v. Chiefs -5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Chiefs -5.0 The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Dallas which dropped their season record to an underachieving 2-3 (.400). The Chargers have lost 3 consecutive games to Kansas City, but all 3 defeats came by 6 points or fewer. However, this is a much better Chiefs defense than the ones they faced in the previous 3 meetings. I’ve heard a lot of chatter this week about Kansas City being an overvalued home favorite in recent years. However, my trusted 4d Handicapping Software Program tells me differently. The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 and 12-7 ATS during their previous 19 as a home favorite. That includes 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when facing opponents like the Chargers that are coming off a SU loss, and with a decisive average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. The Chiefs have won 5 in a row since an opening night 21-20 home loss to Detroit (5-1). During that stretch, this current win streak, Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of 13.4 points and 267.2 yards per contest. The Chiefs will also being playing with an additional 3 days rest after defeating Denver 19-8 in a Thursday night game. Any NFL division favorite of -4.5 to -12.5 like Kansas City who’s coming off a division win, versus an opponent like the Chargers who are coming off a SU loss and have a win percentage of between .187 and .428, resulted in those division favorites going 8-0 ATS since 2019. Those teams won those 8 contests by a substantial margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +3.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Browns @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Colts +3.5 The Browns are coming off a huge upset win as a home underdog of +9.5 over the previously unbeaten 49ers. They did so while starting their 3rd quarterback (P.J. Wlaker) in 5 games. Although the Cleveland defense has been spectacular, the same can’t be said for their offense. Despite their 3-2 (.600) record, Cleveland is averaging only 19.0 points scored and 319.8 yards gained per game. The Browns have yet to win 2 in a row and are 0-2 SU&ATS following a victory. The Colts are coming off a 37-20 loss at Jacksonville. That margin of victory was deceiving when considering they held a 354-233 totals yards advantage in that contest. They were plagued by a season high 4 offensive turnovers. Despite the defeat, the Colts are still a respectable 3-3 and that includes 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .333 or better like the Colts that’s playing after Game 5, and they’re coming off a road loss, versus an opponent like the Browns that are coming off an upset SU win as a home underdog of +7.0 or greater, resulted in those home teams going 25-0 SU since 1995. Considering the SU betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on even added significance. Give me the Colts plus the points. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV -7 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: UNLV -7.0 UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games. Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Central Michigan -5.5 v. Ball State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan @ Ball State 3:30 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: Central Michigan -5.5 Ball State is 0-6 SU this season when facing FBS opponents and were an uninspiring 1-4-1 ATS during those contests. They lost those 6 games by a substantial average of 24.7 points per contest. Central Michigan is coming off a 17-10 home win over Akron. Any college football away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 like Central Michigan with a winning record that’s coming off a SU win in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 3, resulted in those away favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2014. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by 20.8 points per game. Give me Central Michigan minus points. |
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10-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +3 | 25-21 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Wisconsin @ Illinois 3:30 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Illinois +3.0 Wisconsin is coming off a 15-6 home loss to Iowa that dropped their season record to 4-2 (.667). Adding insult to injury was the Wisconsin starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai leaving the game with a broken hand and is out for Saturday’s game. Illinois is coming off a momentum building 27-24 win at Marland and did so as a sizable 13.0-point underdog. Any home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, versus an opponent win percentage of .600 to .800 that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory during those 10 contests came to an average of 7.8 points per game. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 369-370 Play On: Minnesota +4.0 This qualifies as the fishiest line of the week. When that occurs, I almost always go against what seemingly is the obvious choice. Iowa is coming off a 15-6 upset win at Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes offense struggled once again while racking up just 237 yards of total offense of which 82 of those came on a 2nd quarter touchdown run. So basically, taking away that long jaunt the Hawkeyes amassed a mere 155 yards on 61 offensive plays with comes to a pathetic average of 2.5 yards gained per play. Minnesota is just 3-3 yet are just a 3.5-point underdog against the #24 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes who are 6-1. It must be noted that 2 of the Golden Gophers 3 losses came at the hands of #2 Michigan (7-0) and #10 North Carolina (6-0). If it loos too good to be true in sports betting more times than not it is. This is one of those times. Give me Minnesota plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -4.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Ohio State -4.5 Both teams will enter this contest with identical 6-0 records. Public sports bettors have overwhelmingly sided with the underdog Penn State Nittany Lions thus far. Yet, the line has jumped from 4.0 to 5.0 which surely indicates a sharp money move. Ohio State has won the last 6 times they faced Penn State while winning by an average of 8.0 points per game. Any college football home favorite of 7.0 or less that has a win percentage of .833 or better that’s playing before Game 9 like Ohio State, and they’re coming off a win by 9 points or more, versus an opponent like Penn State with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin came by 11.7 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points. |
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10-20-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Phillies (Sanchez) @ Diamondbacks (Mantiply) 8:07 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Under 9.5 Chris Sanchez has a sparkling 2.16 ERA/0.92 WHIP this season in 5 road starts. The Phillies bullpen has a magnificent 1.63 ERA during postseason play. The Phillies have generated most of their run production in the playoffs via the long ball while belting 17 home runs in 9 games. However, the Diamondbacks will be attacking the Phillies tonight with a bullpen by committee approach. Arizona relief pitchers have allowed 0 home runs in 29.0 innings pitched during postseason play. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Astros (Verlander) @ Rangers (Montgomery) 5:07 PM ET Game# 911-912 Play On: Under 9.0 Justin Verlander has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in postseason baseball over the past 2 decades. There’s no reason to think that will change tonight. Verlander has been in excellent form over his last 4 starts with a 1.05 ERA/0.93 WHIP. During his last 4 road starts Verlander recorded a sparkling 0.72 ERA. Verlander has made 2 starts versus Texas this season with a 1.98 ERA/0.95 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen has a terrific staff 1.47 ERA/0.69 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Jordan Montgomery has been magnificent for Texas down the stretch. During his last 7 starts the Texas lefty has a brilliant 1.22 ERA. During his 2 starts versus Houston this season Montgomery had a superb 0.69 ERA. The Rangers bullpen had a tough day yesterday, but they’ve been very good during a majority of postseason action. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars +2 v. Saints | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Saints 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Jaguars +2.0 Much of the storyline for NFL bettors leading up to this game hinges on the availability of Jacksonville starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence who is listed as questionable with a knee injury. However, you cans do a lot worse than C.J. Beathard as your backup quarterback. Beathard proved in his time in San Francisco that he can temporarily step in and give his team a chance to win. During his last season with the 49ers in 2020, he appeared in 6 games and tossed 6 touchdown passes versus 0 interceptions. The Jaguars enter this contest riding a 3-game win streak. Jacksonville is 3-0 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and road games with a 10.3 point per game differential. Jacksonville is also a noteworthy +7 this season in the turnover differential category. They’ll be facing a Saints team that began the season 2-0 and has lost 3 of 4 since. The Saints rely heavily on their stellar defense because their offense has left much to be desired. Since 2021, the Saints are an uninspiring 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS at home. Any NFL away team like Jacksonville with a point-spread of +2.5 to -3.0 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent like New Orleans who played their previous 2 games on the road, and that opponent is playing in Games 5 through 9, resulted in the away teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a substantial margin of 14.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars plus points. |
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10-19-23 | Astros -102 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Astros (Urquidy) @ Rangers (Heaney) 8:03 PM ET Game# 907-908 Play On: Astros -102 The Astros came away with an 8-5-win last night to cut their series deficit to 2-1. Despite that result, they still can ill afford to lose tonight and fall behind 3-1 with another game to be played in Texas on Friday. The good news for Astros backers is their team is a terrific 54-30 on the road this season. That includes 7-1 in games played in Arlington. They’ll be facing Rangers lefty starter Andrew Heaney tonight. During his last 2 starts versus Houston this season Heaney recorded a lofty 5.58 ERA/1.65 WHIP. Give me the Astros on the money line. |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Phillies (Suarez) @ Diamondbacks (Pfadt) 5:07 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Under 9.0 The first 2 games of this NLCS have gone over the total. However, it was more the result of the Phillies home run hitting prowess against Arizona starting pitching and each total closing at 7.5 than anything else. Arizona had a combined 3 runs scored and 8 hits through the first 2 games. Philadelphia pitcher Ranger Suarez made 1 start at Arizona this season and tossed 7.0 innings of scoreless baseball. Suarez posted a 1.04 ERA/0.58 WHIP during 2 postseason starts this year. The Phillies bullpen has a brilliant staff 1.09 ERA this postseason. Arizona has played 44-31-7 to the under this season at home. Their bullpen has a respectable 3.51 ERA during the postseason while allowing 0 home runs in 25 2/3 innings pitched. Brandon Pfadt pitched 4 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball in the NLDS clinching home win versus the Dodgers. Pfadt has pitched 13-3 to the under this season when there was a total of 8.5 to 10.0. Arizona is coming off a 10-0 loss in Game 2 on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks have played 14-5 to the under at home this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher like Ranger Suarez is. |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Astros (Javier) @ Rangers (Scherzer) 8:03 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Over 9.0 Houston hitters have an abysmal .165 team batting average throughout their previous 3 games. However, the Astros have played 7-0 to the over this season following a 3-game stretch in which they had a team batting average of .200 or worse and there was a combined 13.8 runs scored per game. The Astros are a stellar 53-30 on the road this season and hit an eye-catching 136 home runs while doing so. As a matter of fact, Houston has belted 13 home runs in 6 postseason games thus far. Houston starter Christian Javier has a lofty 4.82 ERA 17 starts on the road this season and those games played 12-5 to the over. During his only start at Texas this year, Javier allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings pitched. Max Scherzer has proven to be a tremendous postseason pitcher throughout his career. However, this will be his first start in over a month after being sidelined with an injury. Additionally, Scherzer’s lone start versus Houston this season came at home on 9/6 and he allowed 7 earned runs in only 3.0 innings pitched while also surrendering 3 homers. Texas has averaged 5.6 runs per game while going 7-0 in postseason action. The Rangers are also 6.0 runs scored per game at home in 2023 while smacking 146 homers in 82 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 0-10 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Phillies (Nola) 8:07 PM ET Game# 971-972 Play On: Under 7.5 The 2 scheduled starting pitchers have been in recent excellent form. Merrill Kelly has a 1.44 ERA/0.96 WHIP and averaged 6.3 innings pitched per outing over his last 4 starts. Aaron Nola has a 1.44 ERA/0.76 WHIP over his last 3 starts and averaged 6.4 innings pitched per appearance. Each of these bullpens have been lights during this postseason. Philadelphia relievers have a combined 1.25 ERA/1.20 WHIP and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a staff 1.54 ERA/1.11 WHIP. The Arizona bullpen is 4-4 on their save opportunities and Philadelphia is 4-5 this postseason. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -122 v. Chargers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Cowboys @ Chargers 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Cowboys -122 The Cowboys (3-2) are coming off a humiliating 42-10 loss at San Francisco in their previous game. However, this has been a resilient team with Mike McCarthy as their head coach. Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Additionally, recent NFL betting history highly favors Dallas in this exact betting situation. NFL money line away favorites coming off a loss by 12 points in which they allowed 40 points or greater and they possess a winning record, resulted in those away money line favorites going 19-2 (90.5%) since 2004. Furthermore, if they were facing an opponent like the Chargers who had a win percentage of .363 or better, they improved to 8-0 and with a victory marge of 10.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys on the money line. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers +110 v. Astros | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rangers (Eovaldi) @ Astros (Valdez) 4:37 PM ET Game# 965-966 Play On: Rangers +110 Houston is a very good 53-30 during away games this season. However, at home they’ve gone an inexplicable 40-44 which includes 3-9 in their last 12. The Astros slated starter Framber Valdez has exhibited poor form over his last 3 starts with a 9.22 ERA/1.97 WHIP. During his lone postseason start which came at home versus Minnesota, Valdez allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings pitched. Nathan Eovaldi is an extremely underrated postseason pitcher. He has a career 12-2 postseason team start record in which opponents averaged a mere 2.9 runs scored per game. This postseason has been no different, Eovaldi has made 2 starts this October with a fabulous 1.32 ERA/0.81 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings pitched. During 9 day game starts this season, Eovaldi has an outstanding 2.92 ERA/1.11 WHIP. The Texas bullpen has been very good during this postseason with a staff 1.86 ERA/1.04 WHIP. The Rangers enter today having gone 6-0 this postseason with 5 of those games taking place on the road. Make it 7-0! Give me the Rangers on the money line. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover. NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders -150 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Raiders -150 (ML) New England is coming off a 34-0 home loss to the New Orleans saints. They’ve now been outscored 72-3 and outgained 681-409 over their previous 2 games. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have scored 2 points or fewer in all 5 of their games while losing 4 of those contests. But for the game against Buffalo, the Raiders defense has been more than respectable in allowing an average of 19.0 points and 295.8 yards per game in their other 4 contests. NFL home favorites of 2.0 or greater like the Raiders that are coming off a home win, versus opponents like New England coming off a home favorite SU loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going a terrific 56-3 SU since 1982. Give me the Raiders as a money line favorite. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Oregon State 8:00 PM ET Game# 189-190 Play On: Under 54.5 UCLA has allowed 17 points or fewer in all 5 games this season and forced an eye-popping 13 turnovers. Throughout their previous 4 games, the UCLA defense has allowed 295 yards or less on each occasion. The last 2 of which came versus nationally ranked Washington State and Utah. Oregon State has allowed 7.7 points and 234.0 yards per game in their 3 contests at home this season. Both offenses run the ball a tad more than they throw it, and each defense has been very good against the run. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-14-23 | USC v. Notre Dame -130 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
USC @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Notre Dame -130 (ML) Notre Dame (5-2) has played the tougher schedule and has the better defense in this matchup. Additionally, we have a 2-loss team in Notre Dame as a favorite against an undefeated and #10 ranked team like USC. For lack of a better phrase, the oddsmakers are giving you the winner in this contest and I’m more than willing to accept that offer. Notre Dame has also won the last 5 meetings in South Bend played between these perennial rivals and won by an average of 13.4 points per game. Despite their perfect 6-0 record, USC has allowed 36.7 points and 474.3 yards per contest over during their previous 3 games. They were extremely fortunate to escape with a 43-41 triple overtime win at home versus Arizona last week. Notre Dame is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Louisville where they shot themselves in the foot with 5 turnovers. Prior to that, “The Irish” committed only 2 turnovers in their first 5 games of the season. I’m willing to give them a pass last week after playing back-to-back road games versus 2 undefeated and nationally ranked opponents. This week they return home in a huge rivalry game in which they can possibly spoil their opponent’s aspirations of possibly winning a national championship. Furthermore, they’ll be out for revenge after losing 38-27 at USC last season. The Blue and Gold will be primed to do exactly that. Any College Football home favorite of 9.0 or less that playing before Game 9 like Notre Dame who is coming off an away favorite loss in which they allowed 38 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent like USC with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-1 ATS since and 16-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 16 contests came by a decisive 17.8 points per game. Give me Notre Dame as a money line favorite. |
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10-14-23 | Missouri +2.5 v. Kentucky | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Missouri +2.5 Kentucky went into last week’s matchup with #1 Georgia with high hopes. After all, they were undefeated and looked impressive while doing so. Nevertheless, they were thoroughly exposed in a 51-13 defeat and allowed Georgia to amass 6608 total yards and average a whopping 8.3 yards per offensive play. They’ll have their hands full again when facing a Missouri offense that’s averaging 37.0 points scored and 533.7 yards per game. The Tigers are also averaging a superb 7.8 yards per offensive play that speaks to their big play ability. Missouri’s defense can be vulnerable at times, but Kentucky lacks the potent passing game that can make them pay. During their 3 SEC contests, Kentucky has averaged a mere 134.0 yards passing per game and completed just 45.3% of their aerial attempts. Give me Missouri plus points. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Wyoming @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Air Force -11.0 Wyoming is coming off a home 24-19 upset win over then #24 Fresno State last week which improved their season record to 5-1. Despite that stellar record, Wyoming is outgained by an average of 49.5 yards per game. That indicates to me they’re not as good as their record indicates. Air Force is 5-0 and coming off a bye week. Their last game was a 49-10 blowout win over San Diego State. Air Force has dominated the opposition in those 5 wins while outgaining them by 187.6 yards and outscoring them by 25.4 points per game. The Falcons will be out for revenge stemming from a 17-14 loss at Wyoming last season. The Falcons are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 21.0 and with an average victory margin of 29.4 points per game. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 4:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Wisconsin -9.0 Wisconsin is coming off last week’s 24-13 home win over Rutgers that improved their season record to 4-1. That outcome also put them on a 3-game win streak in which they had a +7 turnover margin differential. Iowa is 5-1 but not nearly as good as their record indicates, and especially so on the offensive side of the ball where they average just 21.8 points and 250.5 yards per contest. Wisconsin will be seeking revenge stemming for a 24-10 loss at Iowa a year ago. The Hawkeyes are coming of a 20-14 win over Purdue. Comparatively, Wisconsin was a 38-17 blowout winner at Purdue earlier this season. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Tennessee -3.0 For starters, Tennessee will enter this game in Knoxville on Saturday riding a 13-game home win streak which saw them also go an extremely profitable 9-2 ATS when facing FBS opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee is 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 28.0 or less and with a substantial average victory margin of 33.6 points per game. Conversely, Texas A&M has lost 7 consecutive true road games and failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. Tennessee will also have the luxury of coming off a bye week. Compared to Texas A&M who lost a hard-fought battle with Alabama that saw them fall short in a 28-22 defeat. Rest and emotional edge favors Tennessee. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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10-14-23 | BYU v. TCU -4.5 | 11-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
BYU @ TCU 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: TCU -4.5 Despite TCU being a mediocre 3-3, they find themselves as a touchdown favorite at home for this Saturday’s game versus a BYU team which is 4-1. There’s some deception when looking inside each team’s number as it relates to their records. BYU is at an average of -38.4 yards per game but still managed to win 4 of 5. Conversely, TCU is at an average of +104.3 points per game which indicates they’re better than just a 3-3 team. The Horned Frogs are coming off a disappointing 27-14 loss at Iowa State in a game they closed as a 6.0-point favorite. They were plagued by a -4-turnover differential in that contest. Since being torched by Colorado in their season opener, the TCU defense has steadily improved to the point where they’re allowing only 17.4 points and 326.2 yards per game over their previous 5 contests. Any College Football home favorite of 3.0 to 10.5 like TCU that’s playing before Game 8 of the season and they’re coming off a away favorite SU loss by 16 points or fewer in which they scored 29 or less, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me TCU minus points. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State +4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Utah State 8:00 PM ET Game# 179-180 Play On: Utah State +4.5 Fresno State is coming off a 24-19 loss at Wyoming last seek to drop their season record to 5-1. However, that 5-1 record is a bit deceiving since they barely escaped with a 34-31 home win over an FCS team in Eastern Washington, and their other 4 wins came over opponents (Purdue, Kent State, Nevada, Arizona State) who are a combined 2-18 SU this season versus FBS opponents. Utah State is coming off back-to-back wins to improve their season record to 3-3. Additionally, Utah State has now gone 16-12 in their last 28 at home which comes into play with our betting angle applied to this pick. During their previous 3 contests, the Aggies averaged 38.7 points scored and 518.3 yards of total offense per game. During that identical stretch, the Utah State defense forced 11 turnovers which is terrific. Last Saturday they were a convincing 44-24 home winner over Colorado State and did so as a closing 3.0-point underdog. Any College Football home team like Utah State with a win percentage of .700 or worse that’s playing between Games 5 through 9, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or greater, and they’ve won 15 or more of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent like Fresno State coming off a SU loss by 5 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by a decisive margin of 23.5 points per game. Give me Utah State plus points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Chiefs -10.0 The weather won’t be ideal in Kansas City on Thursday night with the forecast calling for a 62% chance of rain and winds of 22 to 25 MPH. The Chiefs unequivocally have the better defense and quarterback in this matchup. I look for that to be a huge factor in us attaining the cover when considering the expected weather conditions. Teams tend to lean more heavily on their running games in situations such as these. Denver has been atrocious versus the run over their last 4 contests while allowing 251.7 yards per game and an alarmingly high 7.1 yards per attempt. Conversely, the Chiefs are allowing only 16.0 points and 301.4 yards per game throughout a 4-1 start to the season which includes a current 4-game unbeaten streak. During this current win streak, the Chiefs defense is allowing only 14.7 points and 284.8 yards per game. Additionally, since 2021 Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home when on a 4-game or more win streak and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game. |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Braves (Strider) @ Phillies (Suarez) 8:07 PM ET Game# 943-944 Play On: Under 8.5 Since 7/25/2022, Ranger Suarez has made 6 starts against Atlanta and posted an excellent 0.90 ERA during those outings. Yes, he only averaged 5.0 innings pitched per outing. However, this is a superb Phillies bullpen that just over the last 7 games alone has compiled a 1.29 ERA/0.86 WHIP. The Braves have averaged only 2.3 runs per game, possess a team batting average of .196, and a team on-base percentage of .250 during the first 3 games of this NLDS. On a positive note for Atlanta, Spence Strider will make the start tonight. Strider has made 5 starts against Philadelphia this season with an exceptional 2.18 ERA/0.85 WHIP and averaged a healthy 6.6 innings pitched per outing. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -129 | 27-14 | Loss | -129 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
UTEP @ FIU 7:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: FIU -129 UTEP is 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season. The Miners are coming off a 24-10 home loss to Louisiana Tech in their previous game. As a matter of fact, the Miners are an abysmal 0-24 SU in their last 24 road games as a pick or underdog and after a SU loss in their previous game. FIU is coming off loses to New Mexico State 34-7 and Liberty 38-6 during their previous 2 contests. That dropped the Golden Panthers season record to 3-3. Any College Football money line home favorite like FIU who’s playing after Game 6 with a win percentage of .250 or better, coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, and they’re facing an opponent like UTEP that’s coming off a conference SU loss, resulted in those home money line favorites going 36-2 (94.7%) since 2018. Give me FIU as a money line favorite. |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -118 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Braves (Elder) @ Phillies (Nola) 5:07 PM ET Game# 931-932 Play On: Phillies -118 Bryce Elder was just named the Braves starting pitcher this morning. Elder enters the postseason in shaky form based on his last 3 starts which saw him record a 7.80 ERA/1.87 WHIP. One of those appearances came against Philadelphia when he allowed 4 earned runs in 5.0 innings of work. Elder also hasn’t been sharp over his last 5 road starts while compiling a 6.49 ERA/1.71 WHIP during those outings. Since 9/23/2022, Aaron Nola made 3 home starts versus Atlanta and held them scoreless over 18.0 innings pitched. Nola has exhibited excellent form over his last 3 starts overall with a 1.31 ERA/0.71 WHIP while averaging 6.3 innings pitched per outing. The Phillies bullpen did blow a save in Game 2. However, despite that mishap they have a terrific staff 1.46 ERA/0.73 WHIP throughout the previous 7 games. Give me the Phillies on the money line. |
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10-10-23 | Orioles +125 v. Rangers | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Orioles (Kremer) @ Rangers (Eovaldi) 8:03 PM ET Game# 925-926 Play On: Orioles +125 Nathan Eovaldi was arguably a Top 5 MLB starting pitcher during the first half of this season and was mentioned as an early American League Cy Young Award candidate. However, his performance lines have tapered off considerably since. That certainly has reared its ugly head over his last 4 home starts with Eovaldi recording a terrible 7.90 ERA/1.90 WHIP during those outings and n4 home runs allowed through just 13 2/3 innings pitched. The Orioles had a storybook 2023 regular season which saw them win 101 games and capture an American League East Division title. Nevertheless, after losing the first 2 games of this ALDS at home, Baltimore finds themselves on the brink of elimination. The Orioles schedule starting pitcher Dean Kremer has far from dominating numbers this season. Yet, Baltimore is 24-8 in his 32 starts and that includes 15-2 when facing teams like Texas that possess a winning record. Baltimore keeps their season alive with a win in Game 3. Give me the Orioles as a money line underdog. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State +7 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Jacksonville State 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Jacksonville State +7.0 This is an attractive Conference USA matchup that pits the 6-0 Liberty Flames against the 5-1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The home underdog Gamecocks are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with a massive +10 turnover differential. Furthermore, Jacksonville State is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season while allowing only a combined 17 points. Any College Football home underdog of 3.0 to 7.5 (Jacksonville State) that’s playing after Game 3 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a conference SU win, versus an opponent (Liberty) with a winning record and coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since 2018. The home underdogs also went 15-2 SU in those 17 situations as well. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -146 | 4-2 | Loss | -146 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Dodgers (Miller) 9:07 PM ET Game# 919-920 Play On: Dodgers -146 Zac Gallen was awful in his only 2 starts at Dodger Stadium this season while recording a 9.90 ERA/2.10 WHIP and he surrendered an alarming 4 homers in just 10.0 innings pitched. Arizona is 3-0 in the 2023 postseason and allowed 3 runs or fewer in each game. However, they’re a dismal 2-11 this season after allowing 4 runs or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. The Dodgers are coming off an embarrassing 11-2 loss in Game 1 of this National League Divisional Series. However, the Dodgers have gone a dominating 17-3 this season following a game in which they allowed 9 runs or more. Los Angles is also 25-5 this season immediately following a loss by 4 runs or more. The Dodger’s Bobby Miller has exhibited good form over his last 3 starts with a 1.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP. Give me the Dodgers as a money line favorite. |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -125 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Packers @ Raiders 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Raiders -125 Green Bay is coming off a 34-20 home loss to division rival Detroit which dropped their season record to 2-2. The Raiders have lost 3 straight and have fallen to 1-3. Monday Night NFL money line home favorites with a win percentage of .250 or better like Las Vegas, versus an opponent like Green Bay that’s coming off a division home loss by 10 points or more and they possess a win percentage of .538 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 27-0 SU since 1998. The average margin of victory in those 27 contests came by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Raiders as a money line favorite. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler) @ Braves (Fried) 6:07 PM ET Game# 917-918 Play On: Under 8.0 Zack Wheeler has made 2 starts at Atlanta this season and was magnificent in both while posting a 0.64 ERA during 14.0 innings pitched. Wheeler has also been in top form during his last 4 starts overall with a 2.28 ERA/1.01 WHIO and a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Phillies bullpen has been excellent and especially so over their previous 7 games when they compiled a staff 1.29 ERA/0.89 WHIP. The Phillies have allowed a grand total of 2 runs in their 3 postseason games. Atanta’s Max Fried has also been in superb form over his last 4 starts while recording a 1.88 ERA/0.96 WHIP. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Cowboys +4.0 Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion. Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Chiefs v. Vikings UNDER 52.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Vikings 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Under 52.5 The Chiefs are 3-1 and have held all 4 of their opponents to 21 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, over their previous 3 Kansas City has allowed 13.0 points and 270.0 yards per game. Since the start of last season, this will be the 4th time that Kansas City will be an away favorite of 5.5 or less with a total of 50.0 or more, and on each of the other 3 occasions those contests went under the total with a combined average of just 38.0 points scored per game. Minnesita’s offense has moved the ball well this season. However, they have shot themselves in the foot by committing 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. Any NFL away team like Kansas City with a win percentage of .600 to .750 that’s playing before Game 8 of their season, and they’re coming off an away win, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a losing record, resulted in those games playing 14-0 to the under since 2013. The average combined score in those 14 contests was 35.8 points per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Rams +4.0 The Eagles enter Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 record. However, they really own just 1 impressive win which came at Tampa Bay. Their other 3 wins came over Minnesota (1-3), New England (1-3), and Washington (2-3) by a combined 14 points. Conversely, the Rams are 2-2 and their lone defeats came by a combined 10 points. Los Angeles is also 3-0 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6.5-points and won 2 of those 3 contests SU. Any home underdog of 2.0 or greater with a win percentage of .461 or better that’s coming off an an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 13.0 or less, versus an opponent like the Eagles with a win percentage of .733 or better, resulted in those home underdogs like the Rams going 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. Those home underdogs also won 1 of those 16 games straight up. The average line for those home underdogs was +3.9 and they outscored the favorites by an average of 4.9 points per game. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Cardinals +3.5 The Bengals are the biggest early season disappointment thus far. They’re 1-3 and the lone win was a narrow 19-16 decision at home versus the Rams. Cincinnati has been completely listless in their 2 road games thus far while losing 24-3 versus Cleveland and 27-3 at Tennessee last Sunday. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati is averaging just 12.3 points scored and 236.0 yards of total offense per game thus far. Arizona is 1-3 thus far but covered 3 of those 4 contests. During their previous 3 games Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals offense has shown encouraging signs while averaging 24.0 points and 380.3 total yards per contest. They also didn’t commit any turnovers in those 3 contests. |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California +9.5 | 52-40 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ California 10:00 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: California +9.5 I’m predicting a flat spot here for #15 Oregon State. They’re coming off 2 extremely tough games versus #13 Washington State and #18 Utah. Now they’re about to face an unranked California team that’s just 3-2 and has been irrelevant on the national landscape or even PAC-1 picture2 for quite a long time. However, Cal has forced 13 turnovers in their first 5 games and look for them to cause a few more on Saturday in what I’m forecasting as a mentally and emotional vulnerable spot for the visiting Beavers. The Bears offense is capable of having a productive game in this spot considering they amassed 502 yards of total offense versus #7 Washington just 2 weeks ago. The Bears are coming off a 24-21 home win over Arizona State last week. Cal has also won 3 of their last 4 at home versus Oregon State. Any conference home underdog of 2.5 to 11.5 like California that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less, and they’re playing before Game 7 of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-1 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 12 of those 18 games SU. Give me California plus points. |
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10-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 56 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Dodgers (Kershaw) 9:20 PM ET Game# 9:07-908 Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) Merry Kelly has made 2 starts at Dodger Stadium this season and posted an awful 7.26 WHIP/2.54 WHIP. Quite frankly, with a WHIP of 2.54 in those outings Kelly was extremely lucky to come out of those starts with just 7.27 ERA. Clayton Kershaw has made 2 home starts versus Arizona this year and posted a superb 1.64 ERA/0.91 WHIP while also recording just shy of a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. As a matter of fact, Kershaw is 8-2 in his home team starts this season with a brilliant 1.58 ERA/0.84 WHIP. Since 2021, the Dodgers have gone an extremely profitable 21-5 at home versus Arizona. The Dodgers are a very impressive 53-28 at home and 74-39 when facing right-handed starting pitchers this season. Give me the Dodgers as a run-line favorite. |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
Phillies (Suarez) @ Braves (Strider) 6:07 PM ET Game# 901-902 Play On: Under 8.5 Spencer Strider is 4-0 during his team starts against Philadelphia this season with an excellent 2.42 ERA/0.81 WHIP while striking out 38 batters in 26.0 innings pitched. Since 7/25/2022, Ranger Suarez has made 5 starts versus Atlanta and compiled a terrific 1.03 ERA during those outings. This will be the 7th postseason start for Suarez since last year and opponents averaged a mere 2.7 runs scored per game in the previous 6. The Phillies bullpen staff has been lights out of late while recording a 1.33 ERA/0.85 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Texas A&M +1.5 Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban. Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
Washington State @ UCLA 3:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: UCLA -3.0 Washington State is 4-0, coming off a bye week, but comes up as a road underdog versus an unranked UCLA team. Speaking of the Bruins, they’re coming off their first loss of the season at Utah 14-7. They lost that contest despite holding the UTES to just 219 yards of total offense. Speaking of the UCLA defense, they’ve held opponents to 11.0 points and 263.8 yards per game during their 3-1 start. Even more impressive is they’ve held their first 4 opponents to a paltry average of 3.8 yards per play. Washington State is coming off 3 consecutive home game and an emotional 38-35 win over #15 Oregon State (5-1). Give me UCLA minus points. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -4.5 v. Missouri | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show | |
LSU @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: LSU -4.5 We have a 2-loss team in LSU (3-2) that’s a road favorite versus nationally ranked and undefeated Missouri (5-0). Yet, it’s LSU that comes up favorite in this spot. As a result, it comes as no surprise to me that public betting has heavily sides with the home underdog Missouri Tigers. If I said it once then I’ll say it a million times. When it comes to betting situations such as these think like oddsmakers because they’re not in the business of being generous to sports bettors. Additionally, Missouri won’t be able to stop LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and the explosive LSU passing game which has amassed 320 yards or more through the air in each of their 5 games played this season. Daniels has thrown for 16 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions and is averaging 342.0 yards passing per game. He’s also rushed for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, Missouri has allowed 281.7 yards passing per game over their last 3 contests. Give me LSU minus points. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Illinois 8:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Nebraska +3.5 Nebraska has rushed for 209 yards per game and averaged a healthy 5.5 yards per attempt. The Cornhuskers have also been adept at stopping the run as opponents are averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt against them. On the other hand, Illinois has allowed 164 yards or more rushing in 4 of 5 games this season. Illinois committed 11 turnovers in their first 4 games. After turning the ball over 4 times in each of their first 2 games, Nebraska has somewhat rid themselves of the turnover bugaboo and committed just 2 giveaways over their previous 3 games. Nebraska is coming off a 45-7 home loss to #2 ranked Michigan which dropped their season record to 2-3. Illinois enters this contest with an identical 2-3 season record. This sets a 100% College Football betting angle. Any College Football conference away underdog of between 2.0 to 5.5 that’s playing in Games 4 through 10 who is coming off a home loss by 18 points or more, and both teams in the matchup have losing records, resulted in those conference away underdogs with that specific point-spread parameter going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by 8.1 points per game. Give me Nebraska plus points. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Bears @ Commanders 8:15 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Over 44.0 Washington is coming off a 34-31 overtime loss at Philadelphia. The Commander’s defense has been a major disappointment thus far. During their previous 3 contests, Washington has allowed 34.7 points and 400.0 yards per game. Conversely, the Bears have given up 33.0 points and 401.3 yards per game over their last 3 contests. The Bears blew a 28-7 second half lead at home to Denver last Sunday and lost 31-28. However, Justin Fields had his best game of the season while going 28-35 (80%) passing for 300 yards. The Bears have gone over the total in all 4 games this season and with a combined average of 51.3 points scored per contest. Washington has seen a combined average score of 52.3 points score per game during their first 4 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 60 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Over 60.0 Western Kentucky is only giving up a deceiving 29.2 points per game. I say only because they’re also surrendering 472.8 yards per game but have been bailed out by forcing a significantly high average of 2.8 turnovers per game. The Hilltoppers have been and continue to be a pass happy offense. Specifically speaking, they have passed the ball on 64.7% of their offensive plays over their first 5 contests. During their lone conference away game, they lost to Troy 27-24 but allowed a concerning 521 yards on defense but once again limited the damage by forcing 3 turnovers. Louisiana Tech is coming off a rather low scoring 24-10 road win at UTEP. However, since 2021 they’ve played 8-0 to the over at home after playing on the road in their previous contest and there was a substantial combined average of 71.7 points scored per game. Louisiana Tech is 2-1 at home this year and amassed 432 yards or total offense on each occasion. They also averaged 36.7 points scored per game during those 3 home contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins +137 v. Phillies | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Marlins (Garrett) @ Phillies 8:08 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Marlins +137 Aaron Nola has made 3 starts versus Miamin and wasn’t very good while doing so as evidenced by a 6.75 ERA/1.50 WHIP during those outings. Nola has been extremely shaky throughout his last 4 starts versus teams with a winning record while recording a a large 7.65 ERA/1.60 WHIP. Miami dropped Game 1 of the series last night 4-1. Nevertheless, the Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 following a loss in their previous game. The Marlins Braxton Garrett has gone 10-5 in his road team starts this season with a stellar 2.85 ERA/1.04 WHIP. The Marlins lefty has also exhibited very good form over his last 3 starts with a 2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP and 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Give me the Marlins as a money line underdog. |